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Kemi Badenoch is 100% right on this – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Another morning, another dozen or so Russian O&G facilities happily burning away.

    Ooh, and we’re going to get the JFK assassination files released!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    kle4 said:

    Yes, I'm sure this will help and not make it even more expensive and difficult.

    Exc: MPs and peers have been told that restoring the country’s crumbling parliament will be “infinitely” more difficult than repairing Notre Dame cathedral.

    It comes after repeated warnings that the Palace of Westminster could go up in flames if repairs continue to be delayed 🔥

    The restoration and renewal board was briefed that parliament could not be compared to Notre Dame, with a decision on next steps delayed again

    https://nitter.poast.org/estwebber/status/1882479163006996707#m

    The thing I find sad is people just then talk about moving it out of London or building another parliament building 'fit' for this century, whatever that means. Which is fine, whatever, but it is an incredibly iconic building, even if we don't use it as a parliament we should try to stop the bloody thing falling to bits!

    This is the stupidest bit.

    Plans to move MPs out of the famous building while major works are carried out were first approved in the wake of Paris’s 2019 Notre Dame fire, which many in Westminster saw as a call to action.

    A call to action eh? Hence why the major decisions still haven't taken place years later.

    I guarantee they will go for rolling repairs - it's the easiest option for currently serving MPs, and probably means less cost per year (even if it goes on for a long long time).

    This is exactly the same as all the damn infrastructure projects. Stop the endless talking and JFDI.

    The Notre Dame fire was six years ago, and that building already reopened! There’s plenty of buildings around Westminster that can be used as temporary venues, yeah it won’t be quite as convenient for a few years but so what. Postponing it just makes the project even bigger and more expensive.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,615
    Sandpit said:

    Another morning, another dozen or so Russian O&G facilities happily burning away.

    Ooh, and we’re going to get the JFK assassination files released!

    On the assassination files: just more fuel for asshat conspiracy theorists who will misrepresent every single piece of information released in order to get clicks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,202
    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    Well, right now it's high winds here but nothing too concerning. Luckily, for once, the Leeds area seems to be just out of the worst of it (40-60mph winds). Last year we caught parts of three storms in a week, and a few years earlier had a red warning for wind. That was worrying, so I hope those in affected areas don't suffer too badly.

    And good morning, everyone.

    Oh, and in dictatorship news, the FIA president is a wanker:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c78x03252mpo
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156
    .
    MattW said:

    Driver said:

    Off topic, but perhaps of interest to many bettors in the UK: Here's a commend I just put up at Patterico's (a site run by an American lawyer: "What are the odds against the Supreme Court overturning birthright citizenship? I’d say at least 10-1, but would be interested in hearing guesstimates from lawyers on what would be a fair bet."
    https://patterico.com/2025/01/20/inauguration-day/#comment-2839866

    Courts do weird things, but it seems like a stretch to suggest that the meaning of" subject to the jurisdiction of"has shifted enough since 1898 to overturn.

    Though I do wonder if Trump has unofficially sounded out the SCOTUS majority to prove their thinking. If he has, he's either gone ahead because he knows he'll win in the end, or because he thinks he'll get some advantage from losing
    I think SCOTUS will just not list this case; they only do about 70-80 cases a year.

    I think that given the number of lawsuits which will be coming in via blue-leaning circuits, they will have a capacity problem. Which is a Dem answer to Republican legal tactics via the Texas Courts over the last X years. You get a single judge court (ie no random selection of Judge) in Hazzard County to make a national ruling, and chase it through.
    Yes, the odds of their overturning birthright citizenship ought to be way higher than 10/1.

    The 14th amendment isn't just explicit in its wording; it was written to extend a constitutional right, which had existed as long as the republic, to the offspring of transported slaves.

    Only if they were prepared to ignore the law completely and become a passive tool of Trump could they possibly do it.
    At which point the constitution becomes the plaything of the President. Fascism indeed..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156
    .
    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    A trifle windy in Yorkshire, but we were never forecast to be hardest hit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,615

    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    Well, right now it's high winds here but nothing too concerning. Luckily, for once, the Leeds area seems to be just out of the worst of it (40-60mph winds). Last year we caught parts of three storms in a week, and a few years earlier had a red warning for wind. That was worrying, so I hope those in affected areas don't suffer too badly.

    And good morning, everyone.

    Oh, and in dictatorship news, the FIA president is a wanker:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c78x03252mpo
    MBS is rapidly turning himself into F1's dictator - something that, oddly enough, Ecclestone, Moseley or Balestre manged. I do wonder if he's nowhere near as powerful as he thinks he is, though.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    North Durham is wet and windy but nothing too dramatic so far. It’s expected to peak around 2PM with winds around 65 MPH according to forecasts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156
    edited January 24

    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    Well, right now it's high winds here but nothing too concerning. Luckily, for once, the Leeds area seems to be just out of the worst of it (40-60mph winds). Last year we caught parts of three storms in a week, and a few years earlier had a red warning for wind. That was worrying, so I hope those in affected areas don't suffer too badly.

    And good morning, everyone.

    Oh, and in dictatorship news, the FIA president is a wanker:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c78x03252mpo
    MBS is rapidly turning himself into F1's dictator - something that, oddly enough, Ecclestone, Moseley or Balestre manged. I do wonder if he's nowhere near as powerful as he thinks he is, though.
    The guy is prepared to have those who criticise him brutally murdered, as we know.
    And we have a US president who is fine with that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,202
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    Well, right now it's high winds here but nothing too concerning. Luckily, for once, the Leeds area seems to be just out of the worst of it (40-60mph winds). Last year we caught parts of three storms in a week, and a few years earlier had a red warning for wind. That was worrying, so I hope those in affected areas don't suffer too badly.

    And good morning, everyone.

    Oh, and in dictatorship news, the FIA president is a wanker:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c78x03252mpo
    MBS is rapidly turning himself into F1's dictator - something that, oddly enough, Ecclestone, Moseley or Balestre manged. I do wonder if he's nowhere near as powerful as he thinks he is, though.
    The guy is prepared to have those who criticise him brutally murdered, as we know.
    And we have a US president who is fine with that.
    Confusing MBS for the crown prince?

    Not that MBS isn't an utter shitbag.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    A trifle windy in Yorkshire, but we were never forecast to be hardest hit.
    Pretty much the same here in north durham. I hope all our fellow PBers in areas likely to be hit harder come through it unscathed as I do everyone in the affected areas. Looks like it’s already bad on the west coast of Ireland from twitter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156
    Awkward for Kemi.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/24/kemi-badenoch-report-prevent-scheme-alienating-communities
    Kemi Badenoch, who criticised a Labour manifesto that warned the UK’s Prevent programme could alienate communities, co-authored a report which expressed concern that the same anti-radicalisation scheme was alienating communities...
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    MattW said:

    @Taz @kle4 It ran me into another Green Party PPB:

    "Grown Up Politics" - Five Year Olds do Politics. Theresa inspecting the papers of Teddy Bears for one :smile:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2dNEQiHUUo

    That’s utterly fantastic until the last 40 seconds or so. Fabulous 😂😂
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,615

    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    Well, right now it's high winds here but nothing too concerning. Luckily, for once, the Leeds area seems to be just out of the worst of it (40-60mph winds). Last year we caught parts of three storms in a week, and a few years earlier had a red warning for wind. That was worrying, so I hope those in affected areas don't suffer too badly.

    And good morning, everyone.

    Oh, and in dictatorship news, the FIA president is a wanker:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c78x03252mpo
    MBS is rapidly turning himself into F1's dictator - something that, oddly enough, Ecclestone, Moseley or Balestre manged. I do wonder if he's nowhere near as powerful as he thinks he is, though.
    Ahem. That should be 'never managed'.

    Nothing like missing out a word that totally alters the meaning of what you wrote...
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    Nigelb said:
    He’s right, akward for the like of the USS pension fund who have invested heavily in Thames Water but investment comes with risk and as someone said yesterday it’s written off anyway so anything they get, and I rather liked this term and will look to use it in conversation, is gravy.

    For a Guarsian journalist Nils Pratley is pretty good.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,032
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    Well, right now it's high winds here but nothing too concerning. Luckily, for once, the Leeds area seems to be just out of the worst of it (40-60mph winds). Last year we caught parts of three storms in a week, and a few years earlier had a red warning for wind. That was worrying, so I hope those in affected areas don't suffer too badly.

    And good morning, everyone.

    Oh, and in dictatorship news, the FIA president is a wanker:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c78x03252mpo
    MBS is rapidly turning himself into F1's dictator - something that, oddly enough, Ecclestone, Moseley or Balestre manged. I do wonder if he's nowhere near as powerful as he thinks he is, though.
    The guy is prepared to have those who criticise him brutally murdered, as we know.
    And we have a US president who is fine with that.
    To be fair, we've had multiple British PMs who are completely chill with it.



    "Can this funny little chap fetch me some kabsa? He'd better be quick or I'll have him flogged."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,624
    edited January 24
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    Well, right now it's high winds here but nothing too concerning. Luckily, for once, the Leeds area seems to be just out of the worst of it (40-60mph winds). Last year we caught parts of three storms in a week, and a few years earlier had a red warning for wind. That was worrying, so I hope those in affected areas don't suffer too badly.

    And good morning, everyone.

    Oh, and in dictatorship news, the FIA president is a wanker:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c78x03252mpo
    MBS is rapidly turning himself into F1's dictator - something that, oddly enough, Ecclestone, Moseley or Balestre manged. I do wonder if he's nowhere near as powerful as he thinks he is, though.
    The guy is prepared to have those who criticise him brutally murdered, as we know.
    And we have a US president who is fine with that.
    To be fair, we've had multiple British PMs who are completely chill with it.



    "Can this funny little chap fetch me some kabsa? He'd better be quick or I'll have him flogged."
    MBS isn't that little.

    Well, only in one sense.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,624
    Sandpit said:

    Another morning, another dozen or so Russian O&G facilities happily burning away.

    Ooh, and we’re going to get the JFK assassination files released!

    i wonder if Trump has thought that through.

    He's releasing files on the successful assassination of a serial sexual predator, election rigger, and somebody who owed his position to a famous and wealthy father.

    I mean - has it occurred to him that the next Thomas Crooks might pick up tips?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Informative half-hour video on the Russian economic situation.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-QODJFCrEs

    TL:DR
    1. Watch their interest rates, they are a much better indicator of the state of the economy than any ‘official’ data.
    2. Putin built up a $600bn war chest before 2022. 30% of GDP.
    3. He’s spending this money like crazy, on soldiers’ wages and death payments.
    4. This spending gives the impression of a good economy to many ordinary Russians.
    5. Half his war chest was seized by sanctions, and the rest has now mostly run out.
    6. The central bank is now printing money like crazy, hence the interest rates being so high.
    7. At some point all this comes to a head, and results in high inflation.
    8. Payments are being delayed to keep spending under control and benefit from the inflation, so we end up with a pyramid scheme.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,624
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:
    He’s right, akward for the like of the USS pension fund who have invested heavily in Thames Water but investment comes with risk and as someone said yesterday it’s written off anyway so anything they get, and I rather liked this term and will look to use it in conversation, is gravy.

    For a Guarsian journalist Nils Pratley is pretty good.
    One reason that Thames may get away with it is, of course, that Ofwat allowed the previous owners to get away with multiple offences, including it would seem illegally paying dividends with borrowed money.

    It will be just as embarrassing for Ofwat if the whole thing goes belly up as it will be painful for the bond holders.

    If Ofwat had been doing its job properly, then Thames wouldn't be in this situation.

    But that, actually, is another very good reason for wanting Thames to go bankrupt. Sorting out the regulatory framework in water (and hopefully in other utilities where it's equally hapless) would be a Good Thing however embarrassing for the bosses concerned.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Driver said:

    Off topic, but perhaps of interest to many bettors in the UK: Here's a commend I just put up at Patterico's (a site run by an American lawyer: "What are the odds against the Supreme Court overturning birthright citizenship? I’d say at least 10-1, but would be interested in hearing guesstimates from lawyers on what would be a fair bet."
    https://patterico.com/2025/01/20/inauguration-day/#comment-2839866

    Courts do weird things, but it seems like a stretch to suggest that the meaning of" subject to the jurisdiction of"has shifted enough since 1898 to overturn.

    Though I do wonder if Trump has unofficially sounded out the SCOTUS majority to prove their thinking. If he has, he's either gone ahead because he knows he'll win in the end, or because he thinks he'll get some advantage from losing
    I think SCOTUS will just not list this case; they only do about 70-80 cases a year.

    I think that given the number of lawsuits which will be coming in via blue-leaning circuits, they will have a capacity problem. Which is a Dem answer to Republican legal tactics via the Texas Courts over the last X years. You get a single judge court (ie no random selection of Judge) in Hazzard County to make a national ruling, and chase it through.
    Yes, the odds of their overturning birthright citizenship ought to be way higher than 10/1.

    The 14th amendment isn't just explicit in its wording; it was written to extend a constitutional right, which had existed as long as the republic, to the offspring of transported slaves.

    Only if they were prepared to ignore the law completely and become a passive tool of Trump could they possibly do it.
    At which point the constitution becomes the plaything of the President. Fascism indeed..
    Any argument which makes any headway will be around creative interpretation of the qualifier " ... and subject to the jurisdiction thereof", aiming to claim that children of people without documentation fall within that criteria.

    A more "originalist" meaning would perhaps be Foreign Diplomats who have children, and perhaps those on Indian Reservations with separate legal regimes at that time. Though that latter is itself highly questionable now - and I assume no longer holds.

    But this Supreme Court have been nothing if not capricious.

    One Junior Court ruling which is currently not being addressed is Eileen Cannon's lowest level ruling that Special Counsellors are essentially a legal fiction.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 250
    edited January 24
    Elon did two nazi salutes.
    Why? I dont know. Mostly he was trying to do it awkward enough for there to be plausible denialiability. The reason is to say "look how biased msm is, they will be like this for the whole trump term". but he messed up and did it too well. REFORM should distance themselves from him.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445
    Barack Obama and…. WHO???
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,624
    edited January 24
    Nunu3 said:

    Elon did two nazi salutes.
    Why? I dont know.

    I suggest we should consider the possibility and indeed the probability that it's because he's a racist twat.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,825
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Yes, I'm sure this will help and not make it even more expensive and difficult.

    Exc: MPs and peers have been told that restoring the country’s crumbling parliament will be “infinitely” more difficult than repairing Notre Dame cathedral.

    It comes after repeated warnings that the Palace of Westminster could go up in flames if repairs continue to be delayed 🔥

    The restoration and renewal board was briefed that parliament could not be compared to Notre Dame, with a decision on next steps delayed again

    https://nitter.poast.org/estwebber/status/1882479163006996707#m

    The thing I find sad is people just then talk about moving it out of London or building another parliament building 'fit' for this century, whatever that means. Which is fine, whatever, but it is an incredibly iconic building, even if we don't use it as a parliament we should try to stop the bloody thing falling to bits!

    It would make a good Wetherspoons.
    get the bulldozers in make it into rabbit hutch flats and have the Royals and all Lords and Ladies made to reside there and have to pay the lease and their own bills.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,825
    edited January 24
    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    Windy here on Ayrshire coast but so far nothing special or out of the ordinary, might pick up though.
    Maybe spoke too soon seems to be picking up.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    edited January 24
    Leon said:

    Barack Obama and…. WHO???

    Jim the Anvil Neidhart ?



  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Driver said:

    Off topic, but perhaps of interest to many bettors in the UK: Here's a commend I just put up at Patterico's (a site run by an American lawyer: "What are the odds against the Supreme Court overturning birthright citizenship? I’d say at least 10-1, but would be interested in hearing guesstimates from lawyers on what would be a fair bet."
    https://patterico.com/2025/01/20/inauguration-day/#comment-2839866

    Courts do weird things, but it seems like a stretch to suggest that the meaning of" subject to the jurisdiction of"has shifted enough since 1898 to overturn.

    Though I do wonder if Trump has unofficially sounded out the SCOTUS majority to prove their thinking. If he has, he's either gone ahead because he knows he'll win in the end, or because he thinks he'll get some advantage from losing
    I think SCOTUS will just not list this case; they only do about 70-80 cases a year.

    I think that given the number of lawsuits which will be coming in via blue-leaning circuits, they will have a capacity problem. Which is a Dem answer to Republican legal tactics via the Texas Courts over the last X years. You get a single judge court (ie no random selection of Judge) in Hazzard County to make a national ruling, and chase it through.
    Yes, the odds of their overturning birthright citizenship ought to be way higher than 10/1.

    The 14th amendment isn't just explicit in its wording; it was written to extend a constitutional right, which had existed as long as the republic, to the offspring of transported slaves.

    Only if they were prepared to ignore the law completely and become a passive tool of Trump could they possibly do it.
    At which point the constitution becomes the plaything of the President. Fascism indeed..
    Those in favour of the Trump position are relying on statements made during the debates on 14th Amendment by its author, Sen. Jacob Howard.

    https://x.com/trhlofficial/status/1882215223727419697

    "This will not, of course, include persons born in the United States who are foreigners, aliens, who belong to the families of ambassadors or foreign ministers accredited to the Government."

    This is the opposing view, saying that the prevailing case law was based on the common law of England at the time.

    https://x.com/alexnowrasteh/status/1882250895439679910

    The UK law on the same subject was changed in 1983, persons born in the UK only gain automatic citizenship if one of their parents is British or has indefinite leave to remain.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_nationality_law
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    edited January 24
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Yes, I'm sure this will help and not make it even more expensive and difficult.

    Exc: MPs and peers have been told that restoring the country’s crumbling parliament will be “infinitely” more difficult than repairing Notre Dame cathedral.

    It comes after repeated warnings that the Palace of Westminster could go up in flames if repairs continue to be delayed 🔥

    The restoration and renewal board was briefed that parliament could not be compared to Notre Dame, with a decision on next steps delayed again

    https://nitter.poast.org/estwebber/status/1882479163006996707#m

    The thing I find sad is people just then talk about moving it out of London or building another parliament building 'fit' for this century, whatever that means. Which is fine, whatever, but it is an incredibly iconic building, even if we don't use it as a parliament we should try to stop the bloody thing falling to bits!

    This is the stupidest bit.

    Plans to move MPs out of the famous building while major works are carried out were first approved in the wake of Paris’s 2019 Notre Dame fire, which many in Westminster saw as a call to action.

    A call to action eh? Hence why the major decisions still haven't taken place years later.

    I guarantee they will go for rolling repairs - it's the easiest option for currently serving MPs, and probably means less cost per year (even if it goes on for a long long time).

    This is exactly the same as all the damn infrastructure projects. Stop the endless talking and JFDI.

    The Notre Dame fire was six years ago, and that building already reopened! There’s plenty of buildings around Westminster that can be used as temporary venues, yeah it won’t be quite as convenient for a few years but so what. Postponing it just makes the project even bigger and more expensive.
    I think we forget too easily just how big the Palace of Westminster is - it has 28 acres of floorspace. That's not far off the size of Green Park (which is 40 acres).

    But, absolutely - it's "up and at 'em". And I think since we are now into projected budgets of £22bn, there is an immensely strong case for making it much simpler rather than "restore to full glory".

    I don't think £22bn can remotely be justified. I think there is justification for preserving the historic parade route and chambers around it, and starting from scratch or "preserve facade" with the rest - perhaps set max budget at 25% of projections.

    It needs to be fixed cost not cost plus, and architects work far better when under properly tight constraints.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,202
    Sandpit said:
    Huzzah! :)

    I've made a quick note for next time to avoid swearing because I've decided to make it entirely clean, and I know I'll be tempted to say something about the FIA wazzock-in-chief.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    edited January 24
    Nunu3 said:

    Elon did two nazi salutes.
    Why? I dont know. Mostly he was trying to do it awkward enough for there to be plausible denialiability. The reason is to say "look how biased msm is, they will be like this for the whole trump term". but he messed up and did it too well. REFORM should distance themselves from him.

    I think The Nigel has now largely distanced himself, or wants us to think he has, but Reform has a faction of support which want to go full Tommy Robinson. According to polling, that faction is perhaps 20%.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:
    He’s right, akward for the like of the USS pension fund who have invested heavily in Thames Water but investment comes with risk and as someone said yesterday it’s written off anyway so anything they get, and I rather liked this term and will look to use it in conversation, is gravy.

    For a Guarsian journalist Nils Pratley is pretty good.
    One reason that Thames may get away with it is, of course, that Ofwat allowed the previous owners to get away with multiple offences, including it would seem illegally paying dividends with borrowed money.

    It will be just as embarrassing for Ofwat if the whole thing goes belly up as it will be painful for the bond holders.

    If Ofwat had been doing its job properly, then Thames wouldn't be in this situation.

    But that, actually, is another very good reason for wanting Thames to go bankrupt. Sorting out the regulatory framework in water (and hopefully in other utilities where it's equally hapless) would be a Good Thing however embarrassing for the bosses concerned.
    If there are not consequences for poor behaviour it becomes normalised. That applies to anything in life. Including business.

    It is hard to escape the feeling that we have, as Martin Lewis calls it, regulatory capture where the regulators look after the interests of the businesses they regulate over the interests of the consumers on whose behalf they regulate. The revolving door doesn't do anything to dispel that.

  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    Well, right now it's high winds here but nothing too concerning. Luckily, for once, the Leeds area seems to be just out of the worst of it (40-60mph winds). Last year we caught parts of three storms in a week, and a few years earlier had a red warning for wind. That was worrying, so I hope those in affected areas don't suffer too badly.

    And good morning, everyone.

    Oh, and in dictatorship news, the FIA president is a wanker:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c78x03252mpo
    MBS is rapidly turning himself into F1's dictator - something that, oddly enough, Ecclestone, Moseley or Balestre manged. I do wonder if he's nowhere near as powerful as he thinks he is, though.
    The guy is prepared to have those who criticise him brutally murdered, as we know.
    And we have a US president who is fine with that.
    To be fair, we've had multiple British PMs who are completely chill with it.



    "Can this funny little chap fetch me some kabsa? He'd better be quick or I'll have him flogged."

    You're right even our current govt have gone begging.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/politics/government/starmer-defends-seeking-investment-from-key-partner-saudi-arabia/ar-AA1vy0PW?ocid=BingNewsVerp

    Yeah, but Trump innit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    Sandpit said:
    Huzzah! :)

    I've made a quick note for next time to avoid swearing because I've decided to make it entirely clean, and I know I'll be tempted to say something about the FIA wazzock-in-chief.
    Stopping swearing is exactly what the FIA wazzock-in-chief wants you to do.

    I reckon all the drivers are either going to ‘no comment’ the first press conference, or all start swearing like crazy until all the broadcasters have to cut away.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    edited January 24
    MattW said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Elon did two nazi salutes.
    Why? I dont know. Mostly he was trying to do it awkward enough for there to be plausible denialiability. The reason is to say "look how biased msm is, they will be like this for the whole trump term". but he messed up and did it too well. REFORM should distance themselves from him.

    I think The Nigel has now largely distanced himself, or wants us to think he has, but Reform has a faction of support which want to go full Tommy Robinson. According to polling, that faction is perhaps 20%.
    I wonder how much that would fall if people actually knew more about him and what he is about.

    I suspect there will always be a hardcore who will support him because they agree with him. But I am not sure that 20%, and I think you are right with that number, would be solid if people had more awareness of him like those of us who are interested in politics are.

    Just look at how poorly he polled when he stood in the North West for the European elections a while back in what should have been fertile territory in some parts given the scandal we are all aware of and he mined that during his campaign. Its relevance to the EU being zero.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Yes, I'm sure this will help and not make it even more expensive and difficult.

    Exc: MPs and peers have been told that restoring the country’s crumbling parliament will be “infinitely” more difficult than repairing Notre Dame cathedral.

    It comes after repeated warnings that the Palace of Westminster could go up in flames if repairs continue to be delayed 🔥

    The restoration and renewal board was briefed that parliament could not be compared to Notre Dame, with a decision on next steps delayed again

    https://nitter.poast.org/estwebber/status/1882479163006996707#m

    The thing I find sad is people just then talk about moving it out of London or building another parliament building 'fit' for this century, whatever that means. Which is fine, whatever, but it is an incredibly iconic building, even if we don't use it as a parliament we should try to stop the bloody thing falling to bits!

    This is the stupidest bit.

    Plans to move MPs out of the famous building while major works are carried out were first approved in the wake of Paris’s 2019 Notre Dame fire, which many in Westminster saw as a call to action.

    A call to action eh? Hence why the major decisions still haven't taken place years later.

    I guarantee they will go for rolling repairs - it's the easiest option for currently serving MPs, and probably means less cost per year (even if it goes on for a long long time).

    This is exactly the same as all the damn infrastructure projects. Stop the endless talking and JFDI.

    The Notre Dame fire was six years ago, and that building already reopened! There’s plenty of buildings around Westminster that can be used as temporary venues, yeah it won’t be quite as convenient for a few years but so what. Postponing it just makes the project even bigger and more expensive.
    I think we forget too easily just how big the Palace of Westminster is - it has 28 acres of floorspace. That's not far off the size of Green Park (which is 40 acres).

    But, absolutely - it's "up and at 'em". And I think since we are now into projected budgets of £22bn, there is an immensely strong case for making it much simpler rather than "restore to full glory".

    I don't think £22bn can remotely be justified. I think there is justification for preserving the historic parade route and chambers around it, and starting from scratch or "preserve facade" with the rest - perhaps set max budget at 25% of projections.

    It needs to be fixed cost not cost plus, and architects work far better when under properly tight constraints.
    Yes the £22bn figure is almost designed to stop the decision being made.

    The historic parts such as the chambers should be restored properly, but the office blocks either stripped back to the shell or rebuilt entirely behind the façade.

    It needs a very good project manager and a tight budget though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    MattW said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Elon did two nazi salutes.
    Why? I dont know. Mostly he was trying to do it awkward enough for there to be plausible denialiability. The reason is to say "look how biased msm is, they will be like this for the whole trump term". but he messed up and did it too well. REFORM should distance themselves from him.

    I think The Nigel has now largely distanced himself, or wants us to think he has, but Reform has a faction of support which want to go full Tommy Robinson. According to polling, that faction is perhaps 20%.
    20% of 20%, so about 4% of the population, that sounds about right.

    His supporters in the US especially have done a very good job of presenting him as a martyr of free speech or journalism, rather than at best a provocateur who nearly caused trials to be abandoned and is in prison because he won’t stop repeating defamatory statements and was held in contempt of court.

    Piers Morgan, to his credit (don’t you hate it when that happens?), has pushed back on a lot of the US conservative commentariat, with whom he usually agrees, in recent weeks.

    The turning point into the mainstream for “Tommy” in the US, was probably his appearance on Jordan Peterson’s podcast. Dr Peterson is usually better than that, and should have really done his homework before inviting him on.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988
    edited January 24

    FF43 said:

    Good evening everyone.

    In tomorrow’s episode of Not Going Out, all our trains are cancelled, all our ferries are cancelled, all our buses are cancelled, and the clincher, the pub’s not opening.

    I was out tonight then suddenly everyone's phone started sirening.
    My mate was coming home from work on the tram and everyone shat it when the alarms started sounding. Makes you jump.
    I was on the 405 a couple of weeks ago and my phone started blaring an amber alert at me. Made me rather jump… not a good thing in a high performance mustang going at cruising speed…
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    edited January 24
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Elon did two nazi salutes.
    Why? I dont know. Mostly he was trying to do it awkward enough for there to be plausible denialiability. The reason is to say "look how biased msm is, they will be like this for the whole trump term". but he messed up and did it too well. REFORM should distance themselves from him.

    I think The Nigel has now largely distanced himself, or wants us to think he has, but Reform has a faction of support which want to go full Tommy Robinson. According to polling, that faction is perhaps 20%.
    20% of 20%, so about 4% of the population, that sounds about right.

    His supporters in the US especially have done a very good job of presenting him as a martyr of free speech or journalism, rather than at best a provocateur who nearly caused trials to be abandoned and is in prison because he won’t stop repeating defamatory statements and was held in contempt of court.

    Piers Morgan, to his credit (don’t you hate it when that happens?), has pushed back on a lot of the US conservative commentariat, with whom he usually agrees, in recent weeks.

    The turning point into the mainstream for “Tommy” in the US, was probably his appearance on Jordan Peterson’s podcast. Dr Peterson is usually better than that, and should have really done his homework before inviting him on.
    On US commentariat immigrants from Britain, it's interesting to see how Mehdi Hasan has developed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,890
    Reform have a chance of commanding UK wide support for a government if they poll ok in Scotland and Wales too.

    Certainly not what I was expecting.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,890
    I hope @Richard_Tyndall is OK this morning.

    His experience sounds horrific.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Good evening everyone.

    In tomorrow’s episode of Not Going Out, all our trains are cancelled, all our ferries are cancelled, all our buses are cancelled, and the clincher, the pub’s not opening.

    It's almost inevitable that this is going to be seriously overblown isn't it?
    Well, yes. That's what the Met Office are worried about.
    It's a storm in a teacup. And everywhere else.
    I am on a floating drilling rig - the COSL Innovator- about 100 miles east of Aberdeen. The forecasts we get have told us to expect 95 knot winds and 50 -60ft waves. We have unlatched from our well and have moved to survival draught. The expectation is for 15 - 20ft of heave for 18 - 24 hours. It will be an uncomfortable experience for everyone put here.
    Good luck!
  • NEW THREAD

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,785

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1882572399117484226

    Bannockburn (Stirling) Council By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:

    🎗️ SNP: 35.9% (+7.2)
    🌹 LAB: 23.9% (+3.1)
    ➡️ RFM: 22.7% (New)
    🌳 CON: 10.7% (-8.4)
    🔶 LDM: 3.5% (+1.4)
    🌍 GRN: 3.4% (+1.0)

    No IND (-26.0) or SFP (-1.1) as previous.

    SNP 'Gain' from Labour*
    Changes w/ 2022.

    *Independent would have been hypothetical single-seat winner in 2022.

    Has Elon tweeted about it yet?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Driver said:

    Off topic, but perhaps of interest to many bettors in the UK: Here's a commend I just put up at Patterico's (a site run by an American lawyer: "What are the odds against the Supreme Court overturning birthright citizenship? I’d say at least 10-1, but would be interested in hearing guesstimates from lawyers on what would be a fair bet."
    https://patterico.com/2025/01/20/inauguration-day/#comment-2839866

    Courts do weird things, but it seems like a stretch to suggest that the meaning of" subject to the jurisdiction of"has shifted enough since 1898 to overturn.

    Though I do wonder if Trump has unofficially sounded out the SCOTUS majority to prove their thinking. If he has, he's either gone ahead because he knows he'll win in the end, or because he thinks he'll get some advantage from losing
    I think SCOTUS will just not list this case; they only do about 70-80 cases a year.

    I think that given the number of lawsuits which will be coming in via blue-leaning circuits, they will have a capacity problem. Which is a Dem answer to Republican legal tactics via the Texas Courts over the last X years. You get a single judge court (ie no random selection of Judge) in Hazzard County to make a national ruling, and chase it through.
    Yes, the odds of their overturning birthright citizenship ought to be way higher than 10/1.

    The 14th amendment isn't just explicit in its wording; it was written to extend a constitutional right, which had existed as long as the republic, to the offspring of transported slaves.

    Only if they were prepared to ignore the law completely and become a passive tool of Trump could they possibly do it.
    At which point the constitution becomes the plaything of the President. Fascism indeed..
    The 14th Amendment excludes children born to invading armies. Texas has already trialled a legal interpretation where they declared undocumented migrants coming over the border as an invasion. This may be the MAGA plan for birthright citizenship. Trump declares the US is being invaded by undocumented migrants, ergo their children do not qualify for birthright citizenship.

    This is stupid, but may be enough for the highly partisan Supreme Court.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    I hope @Richard_Tyndall is OK this morning.

    His experience sounds horrific.

    Yeah, just read his post upthread. Storms are when seafarers and aviators earn their money. Best of luck to all those offshore.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612

    I hope @Richard_Tyndall is OK this morning.

    His experience sounds horrific.

    Yes, I hope he and all of his fellow workers in the North Sea are safe and continue to be so.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,785
    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    *All wheelie bins over, repeat, all wheelie bins over*
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,615
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Elon did two nazi salutes.
    Why? I dont know. Mostly he was trying to do it awkward enough for there to be plausible denialiability. The reason is to say "look how biased msm is, they will be like this for the whole trump term". but he messed up and did it too well. REFORM should distance themselves from him.

    I think The Nigel has now largely distanced himself, or wants us to think he has, but Reform has a faction of support which want to go full Tommy Robinson. According to polling, that faction is perhaps 20%.
    20% of 20%, so about 4% of the population, that sounds about right.

    His supporters in the US especially have done a very good job of presenting him as a martyr of free speech or journalism, rather than at best a provocateur who nearly caused trials to be abandoned and is in prison because he won’t stop repeating defamatory statements and was held in contempt of court.

    Piers Morgan, to his credit (don’t you hate it when that happens?), has pushed back on a lot of the US conservative commentariat, with whom he usually agrees, in recent weeks.

    The turning point into the mainstream for “Tommy” in the US, was probably his appearance on Jordan Peterson’s podcast. Dr Peterson is usually better than that, and should have really done his homework before inviting him on.
    Peterson's a shit. It's pretty much SOP for him.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Driver said:

    Off topic, but perhaps of interest to many bettors in the UK: Here's a commend I just put up at Patterico's (a site run by an American lawyer: "What are the odds against the Supreme Court overturning birthright citizenship? I’d say at least 10-1, but would be interested in hearing guesstimates from lawyers on what would be a fair bet."
    https://patterico.com/2025/01/20/inauguration-day/#comment-2839866

    Courts do weird things, but it seems like a stretch to suggest that the meaning of" subject to the jurisdiction of"has shifted enough since 1898 to overturn.

    Though I do wonder if Trump has unofficially sounded out the SCOTUS majority to prove their thinking. If he has, he's either gone ahead because he knows he'll win in the end, or because he thinks he'll get some advantage from losing
    I think SCOTUS will just not list this case; they only do about 70-80 cases a year.

    I think that given the number of lawsuits which will be coming in via blue-leaning circuits, they will have a capacity problem. Which is a Dem answer to Republican legal tactics via the Texas Courts over the last X years. You get a single judge court (ie no random selection of Judge) in Hazzard County to make a national ruling, and chase it through.
    Yes, the odds of their overturning birthright citizenship ought to be way higher than 10/1.

    The 14th amendment isn't just explicit in its wording; it was written to extend a constitutional right, which had existed as long as the republic, to the offspring of transported slaves.

    Only if they were prepared to ignore the law completely and become a passive tool of Trump could they possibly do it.
    At which point the constitution becomes the plaything of the President. Fascism indeed..
    Any argument which makes any headway will be around creative interpretation of the qualifier " ... and subject to the jurisdiction thereof", aiming to claim that children of people without documentation fall within that criteria.

    A more "originalist" meaning would perhaps be Foreign Diplomats who have children, and perhaps those on Indian Reservations with separate legal regimes at that time. Though that latter is itself highly questionable now - and I assume no longer holds.

    But this Supreme Court have been nothing if not capricious.

    One Junior Court ruling which is currently not being addressed is Eileen Cannon's lowest level ruling that Special Counsellors are essentially a legal fiction.
    Certain Native Americans were excluded from the 14th Amendment, but were included by later legislation (Indian Citizenship Act of 1924).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Elon did two nazi salutes.
    Why? I dont know. Mostly he was trying to do it awkward enough for there to be plausible denialiability. The reason is to say "look how biased msm is, they will be like this for the whole trump term". but he messed up and did it too well. REFORM should distance themselves from him.

    I think The Nigel has now largely distanced himself, or wants us to think he has, but Reform has a faction of support which want to go full Tommy Robinson. According to polling, that faction is perhaps 20%.
    20% of 20%, so about 4% of the population, that sounds about right.

    His supporters in the US especially have done a very good job of presenting him as a martyr of free speech or journalism, rather than at best a provocateur who nearly caused trials to be abandoned and is in prison because he won’t stop repeating defamatory statements and was held in contempt of court.

    Piers Morgan, to his credit (don’t you hate it when that happens?), has pushed back on a lot of the US conservative commentariat, with whom he usually agrees, in recent weeks.

    The turning point into the mainstream for “Tommy” in the US, was probably his appearance on Jordan Peterson’s podcast. Dr Peterson is usually better than that, and should have really done his homework before inviting him on.
    Sweet how you think Peterson is “usually” better than that. He is not.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988

    https://x.com/acyn/status/1882466185868116287

    Trump on the EU: 
    They took court cases with Apple and they supposedly won a case that most people didn't think was much of a case. They won 15 or 16 billion from Apple. They won billions from Google. I think they're after Facebook for billions and billions. These are American companies, whether you like them or not. They're American companies and they shouldn't be doing that. As far as I’m concerned, that’s a form of taxation

    The US does that to European companies…

    I was told once by the head of one of the global Pharma companies that they budgeted $1bn a year for legal settlements in the US. Saw it as a cost of doing business.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 391
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:
    He’s right, akward for the like of the USS pension fund who have invested heavily in Thames Water but investment comes with risk and as someone said yesterday it’s written off anyway so anything they get, and I rather liked this term and will look to use it in conversation, is gravy.

    For a Guarsian journalist Nils Pratley is pretty good.
    Banks and shareholders are in the risk business and get the rewards for that. Amazing that so many hard core capitalists always want subsidising.

    As an aside, Universities are now basket cases as they couldn't assess risk when planning expansion - and want subsidising. Seems USS have done their best to emulate their pensioners.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,586

    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    *All wheelie bins over, repeat, all wheelie bins over*
    Wild night, just about to survey the damage...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,533

    Sandpit said:

    How’s the British weather, were the reports overblown or is it blowing a gale?

    *All wheelie bins over, repeat, all wheelie bins over*
    Wild night, just about to survey the damage...
    We were the same. Our forecast indicated it would get really bad from about 10am today but at 3am it was absolutely wild. Even woke my wife up who can usually sleep through pretty much anything.
This discussion has been closed.