It’s all gone a bit Liz Truss – politicalbetting.com

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It’s all gone a bit Liz Truss – politicalbetting.com

Belief the UK economy is in a bad state is common among all voters2024 Labour: 66% bad state2024 Lib Dem: 76%2024 Conservative: 87%2024 Reform UK: 94%https://t.co/wCraCMB3oa pic.twitter.com/sYdtdpKBO8

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RobD

We need a long term economic plan.

Sandpit

Second, like most incumbents after an election in the past couple of years.

Sandpit

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Foxy

The gloom is being way over done.

JosiasJessop

I've just realised that Dubai resident Ant Middleton wants to be London mayor.

That'll be fun.

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Talking about a 1940s tipping point, America is buggered if there's another pandemic or outbreak of some disease in the next four years.

What made diphtheria go away?

Vaccines?

Or something else?

Maybe drinking raw milk, detox diets, ivermectin?

RFK Jr isn't sure

What do you think?



https://x.com/DrNeilStone/status/1880018972298604684/photo/1

boulay

I did like her nick Robinson interview today, to paraphrase, I wouldn’t call myself the Iron Chancellor but if everyone else would like to that would be great.

Her biggest f up which she should be vilified for, more than any of the other decisions, was the purely politically driven talking down of the economy. She thought she was being clever in giving the Tories a big kicking whilst they were already down and internally haemorrhaging but ultimately this political act caused huge economic damage.

Childish student politics has big repercussions.

TheScreamingEagles

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

Yah, as I noted the other day, only one government since the war has lost the next election within six months of winning.

That was the Tories in 1992 thanks to Black Wednesday.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Talking about a 1940s tipping point, America is buggered if there's another pandemic or outbreak of some disease in the next four years.

What made diphtheria go away?

Vaccines?

Or something else?

Maybe drinking raw milk, detox diets, ivermectin?

RFK Jr isn't sure

What do you think?



https://x.com/DrNeilStone/status/1880018972298604684/photo/1

I don’t understand how people can be so mentally retarded*.

*Totally appropriate and correct usage of the term in this case.

Dopermean

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

stodge

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

RobD

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

TheScreamingEagles

From another PB.

Danny Masterson, Prince Andrew, and Neil Gaiman all share the same lawyer. Must come in handy.

MattW

Good morning everyone.

Talking of Sandpit's Rome burning down, there's been a new discovery at Pompeii, and there's a decent BBC piece about it:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c15zgvnvk4do

It includes a bathhouse, in a house with 3 different bathing rooms for hot, warm and cold. *

* For our correspondents in the USA, how do Usonians make documentaries or reports about Pompeii, given their general prissiness and what "bathhouses" are (were?) in New York? What happens in schools in the South?

Sandpit

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Daveyboy1961

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

Dopermean

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Apologies to the Telegraph, they've covered it, no hits on BBC tho.

RobD

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

That’s probably the fairest way to do it, or maybe some form of taper to reduce a part of the pension down to zero, leaving a minimum amount for everyone.

Foxy

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Argentina maybe. Trump won't touch Social Security or Medicare.

He will pay for his tax cuts for the 1% of the 1% with ramped up borrowing. It will be inflationary, and quite a sugar rush of growth, at the expense of long term worsening of the American finances.

Gallowgate

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

As many people have previously stated, the tax-free allowance should be at the level of the state pension. Someone depending only on the state pension shouldn't be paying any income tax as that's a pointless exercise of giving with one hand and taking with the other.

viewcode

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Genuine question: what does "work" mean in this context? What is the metric(s) you use to measure it and what is the threshold it has to meet? Is it something like "growth of over 2% pa", or is it more of a vibe shift?

Malmesbury

TheScreamingEagles said:

From another PB.

Danny Masterson, Prince Andrew, and Neil Gaiman all share the same lawyer. Must come in handy.

Can ranks are funny things.

At least that’s what that Albanian Black Taxi driver told me.

Foxy

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

We have to adapt to people working on into what used to be the retirement years.

Indeed it's what many of us prefer to do anyway. Part time, using the pension as a supplement.

Eabhal

RobD said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

That’s probably the fairest way to do it, or maybe some form of taper to reduce a part of the pension down to zero, leaving a minimum amount for everyone.

The latter would be effectively a reformed Pension Credit - a top up for the poorest pensioners, tapered away as income from other sources increases. The interaction with wealth is the difficult thing here, and why it's such a dangerous area to fiddle with.

There is some cognitive dissonance around pensioner benefits. We're forever being told that older people worked hard and saved for their retirement, yet the WFP and the triple lock are apparently essential for even the richest pensioners to get by.

bondegezou

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Seems odd to describe Europeans as “electing fringe politicians” while praising the Americans for trying something.

Malmesbury

RobD said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

That’s probably the fairest way to do it, or maybe some form of taper to reduce a part of the pension down to zero, leaving a minimum amount for everyone.

Yup

The other idea is a supplementary, means tested pension. The basic pension is indexed to CPI. The triple locked bit would be the supplementary pension.

I’d prefer the merged NI+Income Tax system, myself.

Gallowgate

Eabhal said:

RobD said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

That’s probably the fairest way to do it, or maybe some form of taper to reduce a part of the pension down to zero, leaving a minimum amount for everyone.

The latter would be effectively a reformed Pension Credit - a top up for the poorest pensioners, tapered away as income from other sources increases.

There is some cognitive dissonance around pensions. We're forever being told that older people worked hard and saved for their retirement, yet the WFP and the triple lock are apparently essential for even the richest pensioners to get by.

I have been paying national insurance for circa 15 years now but it would be laughable to claim that is me "saving for my retirement". I have been merely paying tax.

Malmesbury

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Biden did do something. Though it’s arguable how much the tech boom was already baked in, the CHIPS Act etc.

Eabhal

Gallowgate said:

Eabhal said:

RobD said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

That’s probably the fairest way to do it, or maybe some form of taper to reduce a part of the pension down to zero, leaving a minimum amount for everyone.

The latter would be effectively a reformed Pension Credit - a top up for the poorest pensioners, tapered away as income from other sources increases.

There is some cognitive dissonance around pensions. We're forever being told that older people worked hard and saved for their retirement, yet the WFP and the triple lock are apparently essential for even the richest pensioners to get by.

I have been paying national insurance for circa 15 years now but it would be laughable to claim that is me "saving for my retirement". I have been merely paying tax.

Do you reckon your State Pension will be as valuable, in real terms, as the one available now? Particularly after taking into account your historically high employee/employer contributions?

I'm sceptical.

bondegezou

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Malta has some of the highest growth in the EU. It’s a shame we didn’t let Malta join the UK when they asked to!

Daveyboy1961

Gallowgate said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

As many people have previously stated, the tax-free allowance should be at the level of the state pension. Someone depending only on the state pension shouldn't be paying any income tax as that's a pointless exercise of giving with one hand and taking with the other.

I agree there, but any unscrupulous government freezing the allowances would cause issues as their pensions would drop into tax, unless you also advocate a pension freeze?

Taz

TheScreamingEagles said:

From another PB.

Danny Masterson, Prince Andrew, and Neil Gaiman all share the same lawyer. Must come in handy.

Neil Gaiman is going to grow and develop as a person apparently. He released a statement this week which did not help his cause I suspect.

JohnLilburne

Foxy said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

We have to adapt to people working on into what used to be the retirement years.

Indeed it's what many of us prefer to do anyway. Part time, using the pension as a supplement.

I plan to do some bits and pieces, event stewarding is one idea. A friend does it, and he gets to go to race meetings and cricket matches and get paid for it. A part time job is less than ideal as you still have to ask for time off, and it would get in the way of travelling.

Sandpit

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Argentina maybe. Trump won't touch Social Security or Medicare.

He will pay for his tax cuts for the 1% of the 1% with ramped up borrowing. It will be inflationary, and quite a sugar rush of growth, at the expense of long term worsening of the American finances.

Trump is very much gunning for the cost of Medicare, and the legislation that forces them to pay list price for drugs while the phama companies take doctors on fancy holidays and advertise on TV.

It wouldn’t be too difficult to cut the cost of American healthcare in half, starting with the publically-funded bit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita#/media/File:Average_annual_health_spending._US_dollars_(PPP)_per_person._OECD_countries_and_more.png

JohnLilburne

Gallowgate said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

As many people have previously stated, the tax-free allowance should be at the level of the state pension. Someone depending only on the state pension shouldn't be paying any income tax as that's a pointless exercise of giving with one hand and taking with the other.

The state pension is £11,500 a year, the tax-free allowance is £1,000 more than that (but is on mark-time so the pension will catch up)

Taz

Eabhal said:

RobD said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

That’s probably the fairest way to do it, or maybe some form of taper to reduce a part of the pension down to zero, leaving a minimum amount for everyone.

The latter would be effectively a reformed Pension Credit - a top up for the poorest pensioners, tapered away as income from other sources increases. The interaction with wealth is the difficult thing here, and why it's such a dangerous area to fiddle with.

There is some cognitive dissonance around pensioner benefits. We're forever being told that older people worked hard and saved for their retirement, yet the WFP and the triple lock are apparently essential for even the richest pensioners to get by.

The problem has always been that is how it has been presented to people by various govts. Work hard, get your years in, you qualify for a full pension. You can even check your contributions to it online.

So it is perfectly reasonable for people to believe this as it has been drummed into them this is what it effectively is and if you tell them it is a state benefit coming from the DWP it comes as a shock.

Sandpit

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Biden did do something. Though it’s arguable how much the tech boom was already baked in, the CHIPS Act etc.

CHIPS Act was the one thing that even Biden’s biggest opponents supported. It really had to be done, to avoid utter dependence on China and Taiwan.

Gallowgate

Eabhal said:

Gallowgate said:

Eabhal said:

RobD said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

That’s probably the fairest way to do it, or maybe some form of taper to reduce a part of the pension down to zero, leaving a minimum amount for everyone.

The latter would be effectively a reformed Pension Credit - a top up for the poorest pensioners, tapered away as income from other sources increases.

There is some cognitive dissonance around pensions. We're forever being told that older people worked hard and saved for their retirement, yet the WFP and the triple lock are apparently essential for even the richest pensioners to get by.

I have been paying national insurance for circa 15 years now but it would be laughable to claim that is me "saving for my retirement". I have been merely paying tax.

Do you reckon your State Pension will be as valuable, in real terms, as the one available now? Particularly after taking into account your historically high employee/employer contributions?

I'm sceptical.

I don’t expect to get a state pension at all to be honest, neither do I particularly care. It is ultimately what it is and if my private pension isn’t big enough (it is well below what it should be right now) then I will just have to work longer. I hope the state would assist me if poor health prevents this but who knows.

Gallowgate

Daveyboy1961 said:

Gallowgate said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

As many people have previously stated, the tax-free allowance should be at the level of the state pension. Someone depending only on the state pension shouldn't be paying any income tax as that's a pointless exercise of giving with one hand and taking with the other.

I agree there, but any unscrupulous government freezing the allowances would cause issues as their pensions would drop into tax, unless you also advocate a pension freeze?

Yes. Pain should be shared equally.

Taz

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

That’s probably the fairest way to do it, or maybe some form of taper to reduce a part of the pension down to zero, leaving a minimum amount for everyone.

Yup

The other idea is a supplementary, means tested pension. The basic pension is indexed to CPI. The triple locked bit would be the supplementary pension.

I’d prefer the merged NI+Income Tax system, myself.

So, although not the same, similar to the old basic pension SERPS where you had contracted in and contracted out pensions. Before it was all harmonised by the coalition.

TheScreamingEagles

Gallowgate said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Gallowgate said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

As many people have previously stated, the tax-free allowance should be at the level of the state pension. Someone depending only on the state pension shouldn't be paying any income tax as that's a pointless exercise of giving with one hand and taking with the other.

I agree there, but any unscrupulous government freezing the allowances would cause issues as their pensions would drop into tax, unless you also advocate a pension freeze?

Yes. Pain should be shared equally.

You would be a terrible dominatrix.

Taz

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Biden did do something. Though it’s arguable how much the tech boom was already baked in, the CHIPS Act etc.

CHIPS Act was the one thing that even Biden’s biggest opponents supported. It really had to be done, to avoid utter dependence on China and Taiwan.

It is a shame the democrats did not really seem to get enough credit for that in the November election.

Picking a hopeless candidate probably didn't help.

It will be a good legacy for Biden.

Sandpit

viewcode said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Genuine question: what does "work" mean in this context? What is the metric(s) you use to measure it and what is the threshold it has to meet? Is it something like "growth of over 2% pa", or is it more of a vibe shift?

Good question, but it needs to be solid improvements in life for the middle 60% rather than just ‘vibes’.

As in the UK, the US is seeing people marry later, having fewer children, and housing becoming increasingly unaffordable. A reversal in these trends would be an improvement.

Driver

Gallowgate said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

As many people have previously stated, the tax-free allowance should be at the level of the state pension. Someone depending only on the state pension shouldn't be paying any income tax as that's a pointless exercise of giving with one hand and taking with the other.

It's currently higher - income tax personal allowance is £12,750 - full state pension is £221.20 per week which is £11,534 for the year.

RochdalePioneers

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I disagree. There is a veneer of economic output in places, and not even that in large parts of the country. Hospitality appears to have had a poor Christmas, retail likewise. People are struggling for money and that means they can't spend it in sufficient quantities to keep the economy turning.

Seriously, there's an awful lot of towns and some cities which are visibly broken in places, with a lack of money and ideas to turn it around. When your community is visibly tatty and its getting worse not better, its no wonder people feel gloomy.

rcs1000

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

The developed world has three challenges, and one amazing opportunity:

The first challenge is demographics.
The second the fact that it's a globalized world and that someone else out in a different country is able to do your job for less.
The third is that we're now competing with a billion plus Chinese for the raw materials our economies need.

The amazing opportunity is the fact that energy is about to become almost free thanks to the extraordinary declines in the price of solar.

The incoming US administration pretends the first and third problems doesn't exist, plans to use tariffs to deal with the second, and is actively working to sabotage the one thing in their favour.

Eabhal

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I'm not so sure. For the last few years there has been an expectation that a change of government would transform things and the country would feel a bit of energy and innovation for the first time in ages, regardless of the economic statistics. That hasn't happened, so there is a crashing disappointment.

It's the hope that kills you.

kle4

viewcode said:

More detail about how Google is getting steadily worse. Basically they worked out that if the search was bad you would stay on for longer and see more ads, so they made it worse deliberately. Those wacky 2020s, eh?

https://bsky.app/profile/tricialockwood.bsky.social/post/3lfvddt2awk2z

The dangers of monopoly.

rcs1000

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Argentina maybe. Trump won't touch Social Security or Medicare.

He will pay for his tax cuts for the 1% of the 1% with ramped up borrowing. It will be inflationary, and quite a sugar rush of growth, at the expense of long term worsening of the American finances.

Trump is very much gunning for the cost of Medicare, and the legislation that forces them to pay list price for drugs while the phama companies take doctors on fancy holidays and advertise on TV.

It wouldn’t be too difficult to cut the cost of American healthcare in half, starting with the publically-funded bit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita#/media/File:Average_annual_health_spending._US_dollars_(PPP)_per_person._OECD_countries_and_more.png

To give Biden some credit, under his watch Medicare was allowed to start negotiating drug prices.

kle4

Eabhal said:

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I'm not so sure. For the last few years there has been an expectation that a change of government would transform things and the country would feel a bit of energy and innovation for the first time in ages, regardless of the economic statistics. That hasn't happened, so there is a crashing disappointment.

It's the hope that kills you.

Whereas i expect government to be a bit crappy so am merely a bit disappointed if that turns out to be true, or is worse than expected, rather than crushed.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

From another PB.

Danny Masterson, Prince Andrew, and Neil Gaiman all share the same lawyer. Must come in handy.

There are clearly different grades of cab rank...

williamglenn

bondegezou said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Seems odd to describe Europeans as “electing fringe politicians” while praising the Americans for trying something.

We elect fringe politicians; they elect bang politicians.

stodge

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

IF the Trump model is seen to work, it may become the new economic orthodoxy but I’m sceptical as of now.

As far as pensions are concerned, obviously there’s an element of means testing with the requirement to pay in via NI. The bigger question, as has been mentioned, is wealth.

If you consider property, whether land or buildings, to be indicative of wealth, some form of land value taxation has to come with a much more meaningful property based taxation system to fund local Government (perhaps).

Sandpit

Taz said:

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Biden did do something. Though it’s arguable how much the tech boom was already baked in, the CHIPS Act etc.

CHIPS Act was the one thing that even Biden’s biggest opponents supported. It really had to be done, to avoid utter dependence on China and Taiwan.

It is a shame the democrats did not really seem to get enough credit for that in the November election.

Picking a hopeless candidate probably didn't help.

It will be a good legacy for Biden.

There’s a lot of books to be written about the state of the Democratic Party in the last 18 months.

They had plenty of opportunities to have Biden stand aside and choose someone who could beat Trump, and failed to take all of them until it was far too late, so they ended up with little choice but to impose the most unsuitable candidate on the party with no competitive primaries.

There’s loads of competent Dem Governors and Senators who could have stood up and done the job.

rkrkrk

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Argentina maybe. Trump won't touch Social Security or Medicare.

He will pay for his tax cuts for the 1% of the 1% with ramped up borrowing. It will be inflationary, and quite a sugar rush of growth, at the expense of long term worsening of the American finances.

Trump is very much gunning for the cost of Medicare, and the legislation that forces them to pay list price for drugs while the phama companies take doctors on fancy holidays and advertise on TV.

It wouldn’t be too difficult to cut the cost of American healthcare in half, starting with the publically-funded bit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita#/media/File:Average_annual_health_spending._US_dollars_(PPP)_per_person._OECD_countries_and_more.png

Trump is trying to make Medicare Advantage the default option which will massively increase costs for the taxpayer.

kle4

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I disagree. There is a veneer of economic output in places, and not even that in large parts of the country. Hospitality appears to have had a poor Christmas, retail likewise. People are struggling for money and that means they can't spend it in sufficient quantities to keep the economy turning.

Seriously, there's an awful lot of towns and some cities which are visibly broken in places, with a lack of money and ideas to turn it around. When your community is visibly tatty and its getting worse not better, its no wonder people feel gloomy.

Ive referred to it as low grade crappiness. Far too many basic things dont work or work badly, with a general expectation that the government cannot afford to fix things even as they take more from us and talk in grandiose terms that can come to look delusional.

We're rich in global terms, but we're waking up to the fact were poorer than we thought, but not enough to have a plan to turn it atound.

Dopermean

Taz said:

Eabhal said:

RobD said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

That’s probably the fairest way to do it, or maybe some form of taper to reduce a part of the pension down to zero, leaving a minimum amount for everyone.

The latter would be effectively a reformed Pension Credit - a top up for the poorest pensioners, tapered away as income from other sources increases. The interaction with wealth is the difficult thing here, and why it's such a dangerous area to fiddle with.

There is some cognitive dissonance around pensioner benefits. We're forever being told that older people worked hard and saved for their retirement, yet the WFP and the triple lock are apparently essential for even the richest pensioners to get by.

The problem has always been that is how it has been presented to people by various govts. Work hard, get your years in, you qualify for a full pension. You can even check your contributions to it online.

So it is perfectly reasonable for people to believe this as it has been drummed into them this is what it effectively is and if you tell them it is a state benefit coming from the DWP it comes as a shock.

Not sure anyone's shocked it comes from DWP but it is portrayed as something you paid into it when it's actually paid out of current tax receipts.
Also it's effectively reverse means-tested to an extent, you need so many year's NI credits.
The universality is important though, it wouldn't be triple-locked if it wasn't universal.

Sandpit

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Argentina maybe. Trump won't touch Social Security or Medicare.

He will pay for his tax cuts for the 1% of the 1% with ramped up borrowing. It will be inflationary, and quite a sugar rush of growth, at the expense of long term worsening of the American finances.

Trump is very much gunning for the cost of Medicare, and the legislation that forces them to pay list price for drugs while the phama companies take doctors on fancy holidays and advertise on TV.

It wouldn’t be too difficult to cut the cost of American healthcare in half, starting with the publically-funded bit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita#/media/File:Average_annual_health_spending._US_dollars_(PPP)_per_person._OECD_countries_and_more.png

To give Biden some credit, under his watch Medicare was allowed to start negotiating drug prices.

Wasn’t that on only ten drugs, and taking effect next year?

https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/medicare-drug-price-negotiation-program-negotiated-prices-initial-price-applicability-year-2026

As Big Pharma continued to buy off Congressmen and Senators, to make sure this was all about getting the good optics rather than making actual savings in the Medicare drugs bill.

StillWaters

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Talking about a 1940s tipping point, America is buggered if there's another pandemic or outbreak of some disease in the next four years.

What made diphtheria go away?

Vaccines?

Or something else?

Maybe drinking raw milk, detox diets, ivermectin?

RFK Jr isn't sure

What do you think?



https://x.com/DrNeilStone/status/1880018972298604684/photo/1

I don’t understand how people can be so mentally retarded*.

*Totally appropriate and correct usage of the term in this case.

FWIW I’ve just spent the last week with healthcare industry leaders in San Francisco. It’s his comments on polio that have caused the most genuine anger I’ve seen for a very long time

Casino_Royale

StillWaters said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Talking about a 1940s tipping point, America is buggered if there's another pandemic or outbreak of some disease in the next four years.

What made diphtheria go away?

Vaccines?

Or something else?

Maybe drinking raw milk, detox diets, ivermectin?

RFK Jr isn't sure

What do you think?



https://x.com/DrNeilStone/status/1880018972298604684/photo/1

I don’t understand how people can be so mentally retarded*.

*Totally appropriate and correct usage of the term in this case.

FWIW I’ve just spent the last week with healthcare industry leaders in San Francisco. It’s his comments on polio that have caused the most genuine anger I’ve seen for a very long time

Can I send you a VM

Nigelb

Taz said:

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Biden did do something. Though it’s arguable how much the tech boom was already baked in, the CHIPS Act etc.

CHIPS Act was the one thing that even Biden’s biggest opponents supported. It really had to be done, to avoid utter dependence on China and Taiwan.

It is a shame the democrats did not really seem to get enough credit for that in the November election.

Picking a hopeless candidate probably didn't help.

It will be a good legacy for Biden.

Harris wasn't a hopeless candidate, just an average one. If the Democrats had parachuted in one of their stronger prospects, they'd probably still have lost in the circumstances - and taken out one of their contenders for 2028.

In retrospect, it's fairly clear that their only chance would have been had Biden elected not to contest the nomination much earlier.

The new nominee could then have separated themselves from some of the administration's negative baggage.

Monksfield

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

I’ve said for years that the next Labour Government had to be radical, and the last thing we needed was more Blair/Brown tinkering. Sadly the people at the top are straight out of that paradigm, devoid of vision.

We need investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, the green economy and our relationship with Europe. And an overhaul of local Government. If that meant putting income tax up by a penny or two then that should not have been ruled out.

Foxy

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Argentina maybe. Trump won't touch Social Security or Medicare.

He will pay for his tax cuts for the 1% of the 1% with ramped up borrowing. It will be inflationary, and quite a sugar rush of growth, at the expense of long term worsening of the American finances.

Trump is very much gunning for the cost of Medicare, and the legislation that forces them to pay list price for drugs while the phama companies take doctors on fancy holidays and advertise on TV.

It wouldn’t be too difficult to cut the cost of American healthcare in half, starting with the publically-funded bit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita#/media/File:Average_annual_health_spending._US_dollars_(PPP)_per_person._OECD_countries_and_more.png

Well, let's see.

He did nothing about either Medicare or Social Security in his first term, just ramped up borrowing to give tax cuts to the broligarchy.

Taz

Dopermean said:

Taz said:

Eabhal said:

RobD said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

That’s probably the fairest way to do it, or maybe some form of taper to reduce a part of the pension down to zero, leaving a minimum amount for everyone.

The latter would be effectively a reformed Pension Credit - a top up for the poorest pensioners, tapered away as income from other sources increases. The interaction with wealth is the difficult thing here, and why it's such a dangerous area to fiddle with.

There is some cognitive dissonance around pensioner benefits. We're forever being told that older people worked hard and saved for their retirement, yet the WFP and the triple lock are apparently essential for even the richest pensioners to get by.

The problem has always been that is how it has been presented to people by various govts. Work hard, get your years in, you qualify for a full pension. You can even check your contributions to it online.

So it is perfectly reasonable for people to believe this as it has been drummed into them this is what it effectively is and if you tell them it is a state benefit coming from the DWP it comes as a shock.

Not sure anyone's shocked it comes from DWP but it is portrayed as something you paid into it when it's actually paid out of current tax receipts.

I can assure you people are, on a micro level I have experienced it in conversations with people and people do actually believe there is a pot of money there it is taken from.

Mexicanpete

...

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I disagree. There is a veneer of economic output in places, and not even that in large parts of the country. Hospitality appears to have had a poor Christmas, retail likewise. People are struggling for money and that means they can't spend it in sufficient quantities to keep the economy turning.

Seriously, there's an awful lot of towns and some cities which are visibly broken in places, with a lack of money and ideas to turn it around. When your community is visibly tatty and its getting worse not better, its no wonder people feel gloomy.

Everywhere looks down at heel. High streets, road surfaces, collapsing schools, hospitals and civic buildings.

The Conservatives set fire to the nation. Labour have said "no new taxes" but Nigel says he has some magic medicine, which probably just means "othering" minorities, but hey that might work, perhaps shouting at non-WASP people will grow the economy. It's worth a try.

kle4

Taz said:

Dopermean said:

Taz said:

Eabhal said:

RobD said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

If NI and tax were combined, the tax rate would have to increase, and this would mean a greater tax take from richer pensioners. This would automatically means test the more well off. The less well off on the older pension wouldn't pay tax so the triple lock value would apply fully to them

That’s probably the fairest way to do it, or maybe some form of taper to reduce a part of the pension down to zero, leaving a minimum amount for everyone.

The latter would be effectively a reformed Pension Credit - a top up for the poorest pensioners, tapered away as income from other sources increases. The interaction with wealth is the difficult thing here, and why it's such a dangerous area to fiddle with.

There is some cognitive dissonance around pensioner benefits. We're forever being told that older people worked hard and saved for their retirement, yet the WFP and the triple lock are apparently essential for even the richest pensioners to get by.

The problem has always been that is how it has been presented to people by various govts. Work hard, get your years in, you qualify for a full pension. You can even check your contributions to it online.

So it is perfectly reasonable for people to believe this as it has been drummed into them this is what it effectively is and if you tell them it is a state benefit coming from the DWP it comes as a shock.

Not sure anyone's shocked it comes from DWP but it is portrayed as something you paid into it when it's actually paid out of current tax receipts.

I can assure you people are, on a micro level I have experienced it in conversations with people and people do actually believe there is a pot of money there it is taken from.

Id say it was the majority view of it.

RochdalePioneers

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I disagree. There is a veneer of economic output in places, and not even that in large parts of the country. Hospitality appears to have had a poor Christmas, retail likewise. People are struggling for money and that means they can't spend it in sufficient quantities to keep the economy turning.

Seriously, there's an awful lot of towns and some cities which are visibly broken in places, with a lack of money and ideas to turn it around. When your community is visibly tatty and its getting worse not better, its no wonder people feel gloomy.

Ive referred to it as low grade crappiness. Far too many basic things dont work or work badly, with a general expectation that the government cannot afford to fix things even as they take more from us and talk in grandiose terms that can come to look delusional.

We're rich in global terms, but we're waking up to the fact were poorer than we thought, but not enough to have a plan to turn it atound.

The part that bemuses me most is the idiotic thinking that cuts save money. That we can simply spend less and cut teacher numbers, or cut the social provision for services in poor areas, or cut the number of police officers.

Cut the service and the need doesn't magically disappear. In each of these examples we're then spending MORE mopping up the mess than we have saved. Its utterly stupid, this post-Thatcherite "we can't afford it" mentality where its "who pays" instead of "who benefits". We can't afford not to have enough teachers. We have to pay more for temp staff. You can't cut youth provision in poor areas without paying more to fix the inevitable damage they cause. A complete lack of available police in NE towns so that there's no police at all and petty crime goes off the scale? Madness.

The reason why Reform are connecting with punters is that they are calling out the madness and offering obvious solutions. Such as crack down on crime. I think the right have a view of the left being soft on crime. Go ask WWC people in run down areas what they would like done to thieves and vandals - they don't want soft...

Dopermean

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From another PB.

Danny Masterson, Prince Andrew, and Neil Gaiman all share the same lawyer. Must come in handy.

There are clearly different grades of cab rank...

Solicitor or Barrister?
The client definitely chooses their firm of Solicitors.

Sunil_Prasannan

Rachel "Liz Truss" Reeves

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Biden did do something. Though it’s arguable how much the tech boom was already baked in, the CHIPS Act etc.

CHIPS Act was the one thing that even Biden’s biggest opponents supported. It really had to be done, to avoid utter dependence on China and Taiwan.

While it did attract some GOP support, how come so many of them voted against it ?

Sandpit

Monksfield said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

I’ve said for years that the next Labour Government had to be radical, and the last thing we needed was more Blair/Brown tinkering. Sadly the people at the top are straight out of that paradigm, devoid of vision.

We need investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, the green economy and our relationship with Europe. And an overhaul of local Government. If that meant putting income tax up by a penny or two then that should not have been ruled out.

It would have been really easy to blame on the last lot a 2p increase in income tax rates, with the intention to abolish before the next election, which would have given headroom for major reforms in service delivery elsewhere.

They have a huge majority, and there’s been so many issues left on the too-difficult list for too long.

Someone needs to really grasp the mettle, to merge employee NI into income tax and simplify much of the tax code.

Instead, a government run by the Process State guy intends to increase the cost of the bureaucracy, and appears wedded to Ed Miliband’s agenda of Net Zero no matter what the cost to the average man and woman in the street.

eek

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From another PB.

Danny Masterson, Prince Andrew, and Neil Gaiman all share the same lawyer. Must come in handy.

There are clearly different grades of cab rank...

Cab rank is for barristers - you can pick your own scumbag lawyer and the likelihood is that you want to pick the specialist in that area.

I think Neil Gaiman's and Amanda Palmer's biggest problem is making sure the issue doesn't become criminal..

MaxPB

Once again, this government feels like it's out of ideas and stale just six months in. It's going to be a very long five years for Labour and for voters who want them gone. If Labour can't turn the economy around (and there is little evidence they can so far) I think 2029 is an extinction level event for them.

Foxy

Eabhal said:

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I'm not so sure. For the last few years there has been an expectation that a change of government would transform things and the country would feel a bit of energy and innovation for the first time in ages, regardless of the economic statistics. That hasn't happened, so there is a crashing disappointment.

It's the hope that kills you.

Starmer is demonstrating the folly of campaigning with the slogan "Change" and not yet delivering anything substantial.

The reason for the early election is increasingly obvious. The sugar rush of Hunts giveaway budget was wearing off by the summer, and other problems like full prisons coming, so they decided to get out of Dodge.

Gallowgate

eek said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From another PB.

Danny Masterson, Prince Andrew, and Neil Gaiman all share the same lawyer. Must come in handy.

There are clearly different grades of cab rank...

Cab rank is for barristers - you can pick your own scumbag lawyer and the likelihood is that you want to pick the specialist in that area.

I think Neil Gaiman's and Amanda Palmer's biggest problem is making sure the issue doesn't become criminal..

You can pick your own barristers as well. We instruct specific barristers all the time in civil cases.

Foxy

MaxPB said:

Once again, this government feels like it's out of ideas and stale just six months in. It's going to be a very long five years for Labour and for voters who want them gone. If Labour can't turn the economy around (and there is little evidence they can so far) I think 2029 is an extinction level event for them.

No, I think they will still be the largest party at the next GE, perhaps even a majority.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

From another PB.

Danny Masterson, Prince Andrew, and Neil Gaiman all share the same lawyer. Must come in handy.

Gaiman is going to need a good lawyer. We’ve moved on from “possible cancellation of projects” to “possible prison sentence.”

Taz

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I disagree. There is a veneer of economic output in places, and not even that in large parts of the country. Hospitality appears to have had a poor Christmas, retail likewise. People are struggling for money and that means they can't spend it in sufficient quantities to keep the economy turning.

Seriously, there's an awful lot of towns and some cities which are visibly broken in places, with a lack of money and ideas to turn it around. When your community is visibly tatty and its getting worse not better, its no wonder people feel gloomy.

Ive referred to it as low grade crappiness. Far too many basic things dont work or work badly, with a general expectation that the government cannot afford to fix things even as they take more from us and talk in grandiose terms that can come to look delusional.

We're rich in global terms, but we're waking up to the fact were poorer than we thought, but not enough to have a plan to turn it atound.

To illustrate your point look at the reaction on here from people who had a good service from the passport office. Genuine surprise/pleasure for what should really be the norm.

Gallowgate

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

Once again, this government feels like it's out of ideas and stale just six months in. It's going to be a very long five years for Labour and for voters who want them gone. If Labour can't turn the economy around (and there is little evidence they can so far) I think 2029 is an extinction level event for them.

No, I think they will still be the largest party at the next GE, perhaps even a majority.

Far too early to say either way. We have an entire Trump presidency term to go first... The world could look very different.

Sandpit

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Argentina maybe. Trump won't touch Social Security or Medicare.

He will pay for his tax cuts for the 1% of the 1% with ramped up borrowing. It will be inflationary, and quite a sugar rush of growth, at the expense of long term worsening of the American finances.

Trump is very much gunning for the cost of Medicare, and the legislation that forces them to pay list price for drugs while the phama companies take doctors on fancy holidays and advertise on TV.

It wouldn’t be too difficult to cut the cost of American healthcare in half, starting with the publically-funded bit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita#/media/File:Average_annual_health_spending._US_dollars_(PPP)_per_person._OECD_countries_and_more.png

Well, let's see.

He did nothing about either Medicare or Social Security in his first term, just ramped up borrowing to give tax cuts to the broligarchy.

He found it impossible to get through the bought-and-paid-for Congress in his first term.

I say good luck to him getting the madness out of US healthcare, and will be the first to criticise him if borrowing goes up.

Malmesbury

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Argentina maybe. Trump won't touch Social Security or Medicare.

He will pay for his tax cuts for the 1% of the 1% with ramped up borrowing. It will be inflationary, and quite a sugar rush of growth, at the expense of long term worsening of the American finances.

Trump is very much gunning for the cost of Medicare, and the legislation that forces them to pay list price for drugs while the phama companies take doctors on fancy holidays and advertise on TV.

It wouldn’t be too difficult to cut the cost of American healthcare in half, starting with the publically-funded bit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita#/media/File:Average_annual_health_spending._US_dollars_(PPP)_per_person._OECD_countries_and_more.png

As I pointed out the other day, the various US government healthcare programs add up to *more per head* than the NHS.

That’s how stupid healthcare in the US is.

williamglenn

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgmm3ye713o

Rachel Reeves says she wished she had arrived in the job and been told "'the money's coming in'... then I could have made different decisions".

"But in the circumstances that I inherited, I judged that I had to make sure the sums added up."

Asked if her decisions had damaged business confidence, Reeves asked: "What was the alternative?

AnneJGP

RobD said:

Dopermean said:

I was enjoying the "means-testing" the state pension thread...

Several things to unpick in that incoherent phone-in response.
1) is she saying they'll means rest the state pension?
Penalising those who saved for a pension, paid off their mortgage and paid into ISAs.

2) How will they deny it?
Massive spin, full on gaslighting denial of the recording or just silence? Obvs they'll have a lot of help, don't expect there'll be anything about it in Mail, Telegraph or Express.

3) Do they ever let her out again?

I expect that this will just be wiped, in a year's time you'll struggle to find it in an internet search, like John Whittingdale's dating mishaps.

Focussing the uplift of the state pension on the poorest pensioners doesn’t seem too objectionable. How you do that is another matter, most likely through the tax system rather than means-testing a portion of the pension.

Trouble is, the more extra benefits awarded with Pension Credit, the poorer those who just don't qualify for that become. There needs to be a sliding scale, surely.

Taz

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I disagree. There is a veneer of economic output in places, and not even that in large parts of the country. Hospitality appears to have had a poor Christmas, retail likewise. People are struggling for money and that means they can't spend it in sufficient quantities to keep the economy turning.

Seriously, there's an awful lot of towns and some cities which are visibly broken in places, with a lack of money and ideas to turn it around. When your community is visibly tatty and its getting worse not better, its no wonder people feel gloomy.

I disagree as well and suspect some people who live a pretty nice life in a pretty nice part of the UK really have not got a clue as to what it is like in these places so just make an assumption.

Hospitality did badly over Xmas as did the high street. We were out in Newcastle a couple of times and it was quiet compared to previous years, especially prior to COVID. New Years eve afternoon may be down to the weather but not everything can be.

Our MP has now started a page for people to report potholes for the new fund. Together we can beat the pothole !!!! It is making a virtue out of a situation that should never be allowed to happen at the scale it has.

eek

williamglenn said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgmm3ye713o

Rachel Reeves says she wished she had arrived in the job and been told "'the money's coming in'... then I could have made different decisions".

"But in the circumstances that I inherited, I judged that I had to make sure the sums added up."

Asked if her decisions had damaged business confidence, Reeves asked: "What was the alternative?

The answer to that point is very simple

Reverse the employee NI tax cuts that should never have happened.

Or reverse the employee NI tax cuts by increasing income tax by 3% and keeping the WFA as a sweetener for those with very small private pensions...

See it's not exactly difficult...

Pulpstar

Badenoch's means testing of the state pension all over the news this morning.

Cookie

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From another PB.

Danny Masterson, Prince Andrew, and Neil Gaiman all share the same lawyer. Must come in handy.

Gaiman is going to need a good lawyer. We’ve moved on from “possible cancellation of projects” to “possible prison sentence.”

Nothing to do with what he's being accused of - but there are few creative types that my view of has changed so dramatically from 'quite like' to absolutely furious with. I still can't think of Good Omens 2 without getting cross.

kle4

Taz said:

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I disagree. There is a veneer of economic output in places, and not even that in large parts of the country. Hospitality appears to have had a poor Christmas, retail likewise. People are struggling for money and that means they can't spend it in sufficient quantities to keep the economy turning.

Seriously, there's an awful lot of towns and some cities which are visibly broken in places, with a lack of money and ideas to turn it around. When your community is visibly tatty and its getting worse not better, its no wonder people feel gloomy.

Ive referred to it as low grade crappiness. Far too many basic things dont work or work badly, with a general expectation that the government cannot afford to fix things even as they take more from us and talk in grandiose terms that can come to look delusional.

We're rich in global terms, but we're waking up to the fact were poorer than we thought, but not enough to have a plan to turn it atound.

To illustrate your point look at the reaction on here from people who had a good service from the passport office. Genuine surprise/pleasure for what should really be the norm.

That's exactly it. And little things like councils being doled out extra money for potholes or competing to win part of a pot of money from whitehall to improve a high street scene (usually a new bike lane or pavement), it gives the impression these things are exceptional problems, when we think we should be able to maintain infrastructures as a standard.

Well apparently we can't.

Sean_F

MattW said:

Good morning everyone.

Talking of Sandpit's Rome burning down, there's been a new discovery at Pompeii, and there's a decent BBC piece about it:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c15zgvnvk4do

It includes a bathhouse, in a house with 3 different bathing rooms for hot, warm and cold. *

* For our correspondents in the USA, how do Usonians make documentaries or reports about Pompeii, given their general prissiness and what "bathhouses" are (were?) in New York? What happens in schools in the South?

I was in Pompeii in October, for the first time in 21 years. I will never not be fascinated by it.

I do note now, that some sites, like the House of the Vettii, have been partially reconstructed.

What’s clear is the absolutely staggering gap between the wealthy (the Vetii were ex-slaves made very good), and the masses, in the Empire.

Sandpit

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

As mentioned the other day, much of the West is at the sort of tipping point we saw in 1945 and in 1979.

There needs to be radical change, and the people are going to vote for those offering it.

Starmer is fiddling while Rome burns, rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, or whatever is your preferred metaphor for making only minor changes when major changes are required.

Yes but what are these “major changes” of which you speak? I imagine it’s the tired old mantra of spending cuts which affect the poorest the hardest as public services are reduced or withdrawn and tax cuts which will inevitably only make the richest richer still and accelerate wealth inequality.

It’s not either 1945 or 1979 and the “solutions” then won’t be the solutions now.

In truth nobody has come up with an effective economic model to promote growth since the collapse of the last Ponzi scheme in 2008.

Oh indeed so.

At least the Americans are about to try and do something, even if you disagree with it and dislike the characters involved. It may or may not work, but at least they’re trying.

Meanwhile, European governments are either going nowhere or electing fringe politicians.

It’s going to be a turbulent few years ahead for us all.

Argentina maybe. Trump won't touch Social Security or Medicare.

He will pay for his tax cuts for the 1% of the 1% with ramped up borrowing. It will be inflationary, and quite a sugar rush of growth, at the expense of long term worsening of the American finances.

Trump is very much gunning for the cost of Medicare, and the legislation that forces them to pay list price for drugs while the phama companies take doctors on fancy holidays and advertise on TV.

It wouldn’t be too difficult to cut the cost of American healthcare in half, starting with the publically-funded bit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita#/media/File:Average_annual_health_spending._US_dollars_(PPP)_per_person._OECD_countries_and_more.png

As I pointed out the other day, the various US government healthcare programs add up to *more per head* than the NHS.

That’s how stupid healthcare in the US is.

Yes it’s totally bonkers, and the more research one does on it the more bonkers it gets.

I live in a country with what in theory is a similar system, but without all the fcukwittery that exists in the US.

Doctors and hospitals here will give you a price list that looks sensible, as opposed to a bill of $5k an hour to see a doctor with a $4k kickback to the insurance company’s sister company that manages the hospital, and with doctors spending half their personal income on professional insurance.

Taz

MaxPB said:

Once again, this government feels like it's out of ideas and stale just six months in. It's going to be a very long five years for Labour and for voters who want them gone. If Labour can't turn the economy around (and there is little evidence they can so far) I think 2029 is an extinction level event for them.

Not looking good.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/opinion-an-economy-making-unhappy-noises-major-own-goals-rachel-reeves-needs-a-vibe-shift/ar-AA1xkgtB?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=7dd23ec2a63a4ac4b330fa88454ef2d8&ei=11

Eabhal

Taz said:

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I disagree. There is a veneer of economic output in places, and not even that in large parts of the country. Hospitality appears to have had a poor Christmas, retail likewise. People are struggling for money and that means they can't spend it in sufficient quantities to keep the economy turning.

Seriously, there's an awful lot of towns and some cities which are visibly broken in places, with a lack of money and ideas to turn it around. When your community is visibly tatty and its getting worse not better, its no wonder people feel gloomy.

Ive referred to it as low grade crappiness. Far too many basic things dont work or work badly, with a general expectation that the government cannot afford to fix things even as they take more from us and talk in grandiose terms that can come to look delusional.

We're rich in global terms, but we're waking up to the fact were poorer than we thought, but not enough to have a plan to turn it atound.

To illustrate your point look at the reaction on here from people who had a good service from the passport office. Genuine surprise/pleasure for what should really be the norm.

Take a look at the proportions of government spending that goes towards some of sort of investment (from preventative healthcare to transport infrastructure) from 2007 - 2024. It's frightening, and I think by far the biggest reason for the pickle we find ourselves in.

Look at Figure 9 v Figure 1. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/bulletins/ukhealthaccounts/2022and2023

rottenborough

Sean_F said:

MattW said:

Good morning everyone.

Talking of Sandpit's Rome burning down, there's been a new discovery at Pompeii, and there's a decent BBC piece about it:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c15zgvnvk4do

It includes a bathhouse, in a house with 3 different bathing rooms for hot, warm and cold. *

* For our correspondents in the USA, how do Usonians make documentaries or reports about Pompeii, given their general prissiness and what "bathhouses" are (were?) in New York? What happens in schools in the South?

I was in Pompeii in October, for the first time in 21 years. I will never not be fascinated by it.

I do note now, that some sites, like the House of the Vettii, have been partially reconstructed.

What’s clear is the absolutely staggering gap between the wealthy (the Vetii were ex-slaves made very good), and the masses, in the Empire.

Plus ça change.

kle4

Cookie said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From another PB.

Danny Masterson, Prince Andrew, and Neil Gaiman all share the same lawyer. Must come in handy.

Gaiman is going to need a good lawyer. We’ve moved on from “possible cancellation of projects” to “possible prison sentence.”

Nothing to do with what he's being accused of - but there are few creative types that my view of has changed so dramatically from 'quite like' to absolutely furious with. I still can't think of Good Omens 2 without getting cross.

Never should have been made. Its not even that i hated it, its just nothing consequential happened so it was just pointless 'fan' service.

Sandpit

Taz said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I disagree. There is a veneer of economic output in places, and not even that in large parts of the country. Hospitality appears to have had a poor Christmas, retail likewise. People are struggling for money and that means they can't spend it in sufficient quantities to keep the economy turning.

Seriously, there's an awful lot of towns and some cities which are visibly broken in places, with a lack of money and ideas to turn it around. When your community is visibly tatty and its getting worse not better, its no wonder people feel gloomy.

I disagree as well and suspect some people who live a pretty nice life in a pretty nice part of the UK really have not got a clue as to what it is like in these places so just make an assumption.

Hospitality did badly over Xmas as did the high street. We were out in Newcastle a couple of times and it was quiet compared to previous years, especially prior to COVID. New Years eve afternoon may be down to the weather but not everything can be.

Our MP has now started a page for people to report potholes for the new fund. Together we can beat the pothole !!!! It is making a virtue out of a situation that should never be allowed to happen at the scale it has.

People don’t want a centrally-financed “potholes fund”, requiring thousands of pounds of form-filling cost. They want the council to come and fill in the damn potholes.

The key to all of this is the social care problem, which the government has decided to push to 2028.

Cookie

MaxPB said:

Once again, this government feels like it's out of ideas and stale just six months in. It's going to be a very long five years for Labour and for voters who want them gone. If Labour can't turn the economy around (and there is little evidence they can so far) I think 2029 is an extinction level event for them.

I can't see it. There's a lot of voters of the stripe of Bondegezou and MexicanPete. That cohort is aging, but won't all be gone by the time of 2029. If not Lab, they need another not Tory alternative they don't hate. It's clearly not Reform. And it's going to be whoever is best placed to beat Tory or Reform. Even if the LDs or Greens were an obvious successor to the main left wing party, there are relatively few opportunitues in FPTP to take over from Lab as the left wing alternative.

Roger

FT index at all time high.....

A bit Liz Truss????

Pulpstar

Weak retail numbers = more good news for debt holders as chances of Feb cut must now be pretty much 100%. Wonder if Dinghra and possibly Taylor are considering half a %.

rottenborough

eek said:

williamglenn said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgmm3ye713o

Rachel Reeves says she wished she had arrived in the job and been told "'the money's coming in'... then I could have made different decisions".

"But in the circumstances that I inherited, I judged that I had to make sure the sums added up."

Asked if her decisions had damaged business confidence, Reeves asked: "What was the alternative?

The answer to that point is very simple

Reverse the employee NI tax cuts that should never have happened.

Or reverse the employee NI tax cuts by increasing income tax by 3% and keeping the WFA as a sweetener for those with very small private pensions...

See it's not exactly difficult...

They had already ruled out any change to income, VAT or NI taxes.

Labour judgment was they would not get elected unless they did.

History will mull that over in coming years. My view is it was unnecessary to tie their hands so hard like this given how detested the Tories had made themselves.

kle4

Sandpit said:

Taz said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

The gloom is being way over done.

I disagree. There is a veneer of economic output in places, and not even that in large parts of the country. Hospitality appears to have had a poor Christmas, retail likewise. People are struggling for money and that means they can't spend it in sufficient quantities to keep the economy turning.

Seriously, there's an awful lot of towns and some cities which are visibly broken in places, with a lack of money and ideas to turn it around. When your community is visibly tatty and its getting worse not better, its no wonder people feel gloomy.

I disagree as well and suspect some people who live a pretty nice life in a pretty nice part of the UK really have not got a clue as to what it is like in these places so just make an assumption.

Hospitality did badly over Xmas as did the high street. We were out in Newcastle a couple of times and it was quiet compared to previous years, especially prior to COVID. New Years eve afternoon may be down to the weather but not everything can be.

Our MP has now started a page for people to report potholes for the new fund. Together we can beat the pothole !!!! It is making a virtue out of a situation that should never be allowed to happen at the scale it has.

People don’t want a centrally-financed “potholes fund”, requiring thousands of pounds of form-filling cost. They want the council to come and fill in the damn potholes.

The key to all of this is the social care problem, which the government has decided to push to 2028.

Post election more like - if the stated plan is 2028 thats way too close to an election (probably 12 months or less) to risk something substantial.