This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
It won't be close, Reform very easily and it will propel them into a persistent national lead for the next year too.
I think there’s a good chance Reform UK will win. I am less convinced that winning would propel them into a persistent national lead. It’s certainly great publicity if they do win, but I don’t think by-election wins have that much effect on national fundamentals. They are a symptom, not a cause.
The cause is the Tories and client media attacking the state of Britain. Bizarrely they think this helps them when it just helps Reform. The by-election is an accelerant.
The client media started their campaign on 5th July, presumably assuming that the Tories could come back almost immediately. Progress remained slow, and then Trump won and the right wing populist narrative has gained substantial traction. Even on here some previously populist shrinking violets have come out swinging for Musk, Farage, and remarkably Tommy is not always the persona non grata he once was since Trump's win.
I am conflicted as to whether Suella is right and the Tories need to jump into bed with Reform or Farage is right and he doesn't need the Tory party.
My intuition (guess) at the moment is that Farage needs Tories but not the Tory party. The party remains toxic for everyone apart from the irremovable 20+%, the mirror image of Labour's payroll vote.
I don't look at/read the Tory client media but another intuition (guess) is that at some point some might decide - if they haven't already - that supporting the Tories is about as popular as supporting the Taliban or Hitler in 1940.
You only have to listen to/read Rory, Gauke, Grieve, Clarke, Hague, Parris a bit to realise that the Tory party doesn't actually exist at the moment.
I suspect Reform may be getting close to their ceiling. Limited numbers of Tories still to move and not particularly attractive to Labour or Lib Dem supporters.
Talking in general, I'm guessing most members of the public would expect an MP to resign if they get a criminal conviction. Whether they do or not is another matter.
Over time there could be a coarsening Trump effect (aided by Boris), as people decide that what counts in politics is the exertion of nonmoral power over being a good chap. The good chaps theory of government has not had an easy time recently. In that parallel reality Rory Stewart is still my MP and is now also PM.
I’ve sung “Your Song” to a former Australian PM. My brother peed next to Kanye West at a urinal. I have danced with Ringo Starr.
My wife has met everyone from Oprah to Madonna.
Oh, fashionista Phoebe Philo told me she was going to the bar and asked if I wanted any chips at a David Byrne concert.
Ffs, I hope you told her they are called "crisps"!
Ooh, that reminds me, I had a brief exchange about chips in a lift with Hilary Benn.
I haven't met many famous people. It's a slightly awkward encounter. You already know all the things about them you'd normally use as a conversation starter. But they know nothing about you. But launching into a brief bio to even the score seems a little conversationally odd. Hence the conversation in which we agreed with each other in our hope that the buffet contained chips.
There are few famous people I particularly want to meet. But I'd always wanted to meet the snooker MC Rob Walker. AFAICS he has one job, which is to introduce snooker. How does one arrive in such a job? What do they look for on a CV for this? He's very good at it. And then one day, improbably, I did meet him, and completely forgot all the questions I had for him. So we just had a brief chat about snooker. He seemed just as nice a fella in real life as he seems on the telly.
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
I'm intrigued by the apparent LD->Con switcher. A get-the last-government-out habitual Tory who couldn't quite bring themselves to vote Lab and now coming back to the fold?
Talking in general, I'm guessing most members of the public would expect an MP to resign if they get a criminal conviction. Whether they do or not is another matter.
Stand by for all those saying Trump is a criminal and should go saying Amesbury should stay if he dets a conviction.
Who are you expecting to say that? I would add one has pleaded guilty to being a drunken thug who deserves the appropriate sentence (whatever that may be) whilst the other tried to overthrow a democratic election and deserved a substantial custodial sentence.
I am not sure of the equivalence. I am sure there are varying stages of "bad".
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
If they want to get Labour out theyre going to have to.
Tories will never win in Barnsley nor Reform in Kensington.
Talking in general, I'm guessing most members of the public would expect an MP to resign if they get a criminal conviction. Whether they do or not is another matter.
Stand by for all those saying Trump is a criminal and should go saying Amesbury should stay if he dets a conviction.
Who are you expecting to say that? I would add one has pleaded guilty to being a drunken thug who deserves the appropriate sentence (whatever that may be) whilst the other tried to overthrow a democratic election and deserved a substantial custodial sentence.
I am not sure of the equivalence. I am sure there are varying stages of "bad".
Theres an entire internet out there. But let's see, I mean if Starmer can lock someone up for two years for a bad tweet what does actual physical violence carry as a sentence ?
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
Set up an employment agency and you can meet any number of forcibly-retired MPs.
Behind the paywall. Is it Gullis? Perhaps being such an unpleasant roaster (particularly when one is a career teacher) whist being an MP in a RedWall seat wasn't such a good idea afterall.
shows how easy it is for absolute dummies to become MP's and then they cannot even get a job in the real world.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
Anyone aligning with Trump is the stupid one. If the price of alignment is complete submission to his desires - and it is, because cross him or even out-perform the US in some trade sectors and he'll come after you - then it is unacceptably high. Previous loyalty doesn't count for anything at that point, nor treaties signed, and extortion and corruption is both expected and necessary in those circumstances.
Britain has no choice of neutrality if there is a trade war between Trump and the EU for the same reason. If we are not with him, totally, then he will regard us as against him.
Not to mention that it might not be just trade. I would take his threat to invade sovereign Danish territory seriously.
Britain's interests are aligned with the EU much more than with the US now. It is wise to co-operate where we can.
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
I'm intrigued by the apparent LD->Con switcher. A get-the last-government-out habitual Tory who couldn't quite bring themselves to vote Lab and now coming back to the fold?
Exactly. She has also voted Lab in the past when Tony Blair was leader, but is usually Con. But not in 2024. She thinks Kemi is ok but I don't think she'd have been her first choice.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
Anyone aligning with Trump is the stupid one. If the price of alignment is complete submission to his desires - and it is, because cross him or even out-perform the US in some trade sectors and he'll come after you - then it is unacceptably high. Previous loyalty doesn't count for anything at that point, nor treaties signed, and extortion and corruption is both expected and necessary in those circumstances.
Britain has no choice of neutrality if there is a trade war between Trump and the EU for the same reason. If we are not with him, totally, then he will regard us as against him.
Not to mention that it might not be just trade. I would take his threat to invade sovereign Danish territory seriously.
Britain's interests are aligned with the EU much more than with the US now. It is wise to co-operate where we can.
The amount of PB-shrewdies who did not give a flying **** about the implications of de facto US control over this UK for our democracy and sovereignty who now want us to man the barricades because their precious EU has been slighted is a sight to behold.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
I think it's clever politics from the Lib Dems, in a Clause IV way. A join the Customs Union policy is a clear statement. It's practical - it is where you would start if you want a closer arrangement with the EU. It usefully attacks a shibboleth and distinguishes the Lib Dems from Labour who are suffering from Brexit hangups, and to some extent from the Conservatives who don't have a coherent post Brexit trade policy
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
Most of the target vote will see this as positive, and an example of solidarity with our allies. I'm not sure there are many Lib Dem votes in promising to suck up to Trump by providing him with EU tariff arbitrage. Maybe a few Reform-curious NOTA voters in the sticks.
There's also the inner city professional Labour vote, which is in the party's sights after they lost it almost completely between 2010 and 2017. That's where the frustration with Starmer's EU cowardice is strongest.
No.
It doesn’t matter if the target vote right now see it as “positive”. It’s an objectively stupid policy which falls apart upon the slightest scrutiny.
This is effectively populism and opportunism dressed up as centrism, and will actually do the Lib Dems no benefit politically at all.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
I think it's clever politics from the Lib Dems, in a Clause IV way. A join the Customs Union policy is a clear statement. It's practical - it is where you would start if you want a closer arrangement with the EU. It usefully attacks a shibboleth and distinguishes the Lib Dems from Labour who are suffering from Brexit hangups, and to some extent from the Conservatives who don't have a coherent post Brexit trade policy
Not a great policy for anyone who thinks about it for very long though. Being in the customs union, but outside the single market would put us in a worse position than we are now. It only makes sense as a policy if they are both linked.
As part of one of my jobs I have had conversations in person/phone with Sir John Curtice, Mark Pack, Railings, Thrasher, Stephen Fisher, Will Jennings, James Kanagasooriam (possibly: I'm not sure about him), William Kedjanyi, Joe Twyman, Martin Boon (briefly), Patrick Sturgis, Graham Sharpe, Anthony Wells and (*very* briefly) Mike Smithson (not at a PB event). I doubt they remember me as I am very much on the periphery of their work but I have spoken to them and received an answer, even if only briefly. In some cases the conversation was lengthy (over 10 mins). Not being good with people I have a tendency to get tiddly on social occasions, so I hope they were not offended/embarrassed by me.
Just to note, Reform's 25% remains only fractionally off their highest-ever poll share. It's the fourth time they've recorded that share, so you'd expect that unless their base popularity drops off then statistical fluctuation will throw a higher one out at some point.
It's also higher than anything they managed in the 2019-24 parliament. Even PeoplePolling only managed to give them a 24% (just two weeks before the election, when they actually got only a little over half that). But in their previous Brexit Party incarnation, they peaked at 26% (three times, each of which gave them an outright lead), just after the 2019 European election.
OGH has met Bill Clinton and Bill Gates, as well as a few minor UK Prime Ministers.
Meeting politicians is quite easy tho, So I am afraid one has to deduct points. Likewise royalty
These people - pols and royals - have to go out meet other people, it’s their job. Even the most humdrum party worker or activist or even hustings attender can therefore meet a few PMs without breaking a sweat
Meeting famous sport stars, artists, actors - actually MEETING them, conversing, snogging, doing a line of changaroo - is significantly more impressive
I had a curry with Ed Tudor Pole (of Crystal Maze, Tenpole Tudor and briefly Sex Pistols fame). I went to see a gig he was doing in Spalding and he was sitting by himself in an Indian restaurant so I invited him to join our table. Truly lovely guy.
I know Eddie Tudor-Pole!
Briefly, I squatted with him and about 30 other people in Albany St, NW1
Generally used to meet him in Soho in the 80s. He is (is he still alive?) a very nice guy. Charming, funny, self effacing. He was meant to be Withnail in Withnail and I but lost out to Richard E Grant at the last moment, and Bruce Dickinson (scriptwriter/director) always wondered if Tudor-Pole would have been even better. Tenpole was certainly more authentically Withnailian, he WAS Withnail, drunk, faded posh, funny - whereas Richard E Grant was and is teetotal and a bit soppy (but gave a standout performance nonetheless)
As part of one of my jobs I have had conversations in person/phone with Sir John Curtice, Mark Pack, Railings, Thrasher, Stephen Fisher, Will Jennings, James Kanagasooriam (possibly: I'm not sure about him), William Kedjanyi, Joe Twyman, Martin Boon (briefly), Patrick Sturgis, Graham Sharpe, Anthony Wells and (*very* briefly) Mike Smithson (not at a PB event). I doubt they remember me as I am very much on the periphery of their work but I have spoken to them and received an answer, even if only briefly. In some cases the conversation was lengthy (over 10 mins). Not being good with people I have a tendency to get tiddly on social occasions, so I hope they were not offended/embarrassed by me.
Ah, I forgot. I've met Richard Branson, and fielded a phone call from him; and I've a model JCB digger with the box signed by Noel Edmonds. (The latter got at a JCB product launch where he was the guest/presenter).
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
I think it's clever politics from the Lib Dems, in a Clause IV way. A join the Customs Union policy is a clear statement. It's practical - it is where you would start if you want a closer arrangement with the EU. It usefully attacks a shibboleth and distinguishes the Lib Dems from Labour who are suffering from Brexit hangups, and to some extent from the Conservatives who don't have a coherent post Brexit trade policy
Not a great policy for anyone who thinks about it for very long though. Being in the customs union, but outside the single market would put us in a worse position than we are now. It only makes sense as a policy if they are both linked.
Nor does it follow that evading swingeing tariffs on the EU is “sucking up to Trump”.
I hate Trump as much as the next man, maybe more, but his existence cannot be wished away.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
I think it's clever politics from the Lib Dems, in a Clause IV way. A join the Customs Union policy is a clear statement. It's practical - it is where you would start if you want a closer arrangement with the EU. It usefully attacks a shibboleth and distinguishes the Lib Dems from Labour who are suffering from Brexit hangups, and to some extent from the Conservatives who don't have a coherent post Brexit trade policy
Not a great policy for anyone who thinks about it for very long though. Being in the customs union, but outside the single market would put us in a worse position than we are now. It only makes sense as a policy if they are both linked.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
Anyone aligning with Trump is the stupid one. If the price of alignment is complete submission to his desires - and it is, because cross him or even out-perform the US in some trade sectors and he'll come after you - then it is unacceptably high. Previous loyalty doesn't count for anything at that point, nor treaties signed, and extortion and corruption is both expected and necessary in those circumstances.
Britain has no choice of neutrality if there is a trade war between Trump and the EU for the same reason. If we are not with him, totally, then he will regard us as against him.
Not to mention that it might not be just trade. I would take his threat to invade sovereign Danish territory seriously.
Britain's interests are aligned with the EU much more than with the US now. It is wise to co-operate where we can.
The amount of PB-shrewdies who did not give a flying **** about the implications of de facto US control over this UK for our democracy and sovereignty who now want us to man the barricades because their precious EU has been slighted is a sight to behold.
I must have missed this former US control. When was it?
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
Anyone aligning with Trump is the stupid one. If the price of alignment is complete submission to his desires - and it is, because cross him or even out-perform the US in some trade sectors and he'll come after you - then it is unacceptably high. Previous loyalty doesn't count for anything at that point, nor treaties signed, and extortion and corruption is both expected and necessary in those circumstances.
Britain has no choice of neutrality if there is a trade war between Trump and the EU for the same reason. If we are not with him, totally, then he will regard us as against him.
Not to mention that it might not be just trade. I would take his threat to invade sovereign Danish territory seriously.
Britain's interests are aligned with the EU much more than with the US now. It is wise to co-operate where we can.
Fuck that, we go with The Donald
He’s an Anglo-Celt. He’s one of us. He’s of the blood
In the end this global war will come down to blood ties
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
The Cons would have to become an anti-Brexit (and Trump), socially liberal, internationalist party for that to be remotely possible. There's not much sign of this happening.
Set up an employment agency and you can meet any number of forcibly-retired MPs.
Behind the paywall. Is it Gullis? Perhaps being such an unpleasant roaster (particularly when one is a career teacher) whist being an MP in a RedWall seat wasn't such a good idea afterall.
Sir Charles Walker, although Gullis is mentioned, and Chris Clarkson, Dame Jackie Doyle-Price, Theresa Villiers, Flick Drummond, and apparently if you look up defeated MPs on LinkedIn there are others.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
I think it's clever politics from the Lib Dems, in a Clause IV way. A join the Customs Union policy is a clear statement. It's practical - it is where you would start if you want a closer arrangement with the EU. It usefully attacks a shibboleth and distinguishes the Lib Dems from Labour who are suffering from Brexit hangups, and to some extent from the Conservatives who don't have a coherent post Brexit trade policy
Not a great policy for anyone who thinks about it for very long though. Being in the customs union, but outside the single market would put us in a worse position than we are now. It only makes sense as a policy if they are both linked.
Nor does it follow that evading swingeing tariffs on the EU is “sucking up to Trump”.
I hate Trump as much as the next man, maybe more, but his existence cannot be wished away.
How has that worked out for Canada?
The best way to avoid swingeing Trump tariffs is the threaten him back rather than kowtow to him. Propose to turn Turnberry into an army artillery range or something.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
I think it's clever politics from the Lib Dems, in a Clause IV way. A join the Customs Union policy is a clear statement. It's practical - it is where you would start if you want a closer arrangement with the EU. It usefully attacks a shibboleth and distinguishes the Lib Dems from Labour who are suffering from Brexit hangups, and to some extent from the Conservatives who don't have a coherent post Brexit trade policy
Not a great policy for anyone who thinks about it for very long though. Being in the customs union, but outside the single market would put us in a worse position than we are now. It only makes sense as a policy if they are both linked.
It's a fairly limited impact change in practice. No-one cares if widgets are taxed at 0.8% rather than 1.2%, nor does it make much difference. Being in a Customs Union with the EU removes some of the Brexit red tape
But it is high in symbolism, both if you see the UK as in independent trading country or if you see a close relationship with the EU as the way forward. That symbolism works to the Lib Dem advantage I think.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
I think it's clever politics from the Lib Dems, in a Clause IV way. A join the Customs Union policy is a clear statement. It's practical - it is where you would start if you want a closer arrangement with the EU. It usefully attacks a shibboleth and distinguishes the Lib Dems from Labour who are suffering from Brexit hangups, and to some extent from the Conservatives who don't have a coherent post Brexit trade policy
Not a great policy for anyone who thinks about it for very long though. Being in the customs union, but outside the single market would put us in a worse position than we are now. It only makes sense as a policy if they are both linked.
Go on - follow that logic through.
Well for a start it would mean the end of us conducting any of our own meaningful trade deals. What's the point of giving that up if you're not just going to rejoin the whole thing.
Obviously the type of customs union negotiated may allow some flexibility on our own trade deals, but the more flexibility we have the less valuable the actual customs union would be.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
Anyone aligning with Trump is the stupid one. If the price of alignment is complete submission to his desires - and it is, because cross him or even out-perform the US in some trade sectors and he'll come after you - then it is unacceptably high. Previous loyalty doesn't count for anything at that point, nor treaties signed, and extortion and corruption is both expected and necessary in those circumstances.
Britain has no choice of neutrality if there is a trade war between Trump and the EU for the same reason. If we are not with him, totally, then he will regard us as against him.
Not to mention that it might not be just trade. I would take his threat to invade sovereign Danish territory seriously.
Britain's interests are aligned with the EU much more than with the US now. It is wise to co-operate where we can.
Fuck that, we go with The Donald
He’s an Anglo-Celt. He’s one of us. He’s of the blood
In the end this global war will come down to blood ties
ONWARDS TO KATTEGAT
*goes back to Vikings Valhalla*
He most certainly is not one of us. Language aside, I feel about as much in tune with him and the ghastlies who support him as I do with a camel.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
I think it's clever politics from the Lib Dems, in a Clause IV way. A join the Customs Union policy is a clear statement. It's practical - it is where you would start if you want a closer arrangement with the EU. It usefully attacks a shibboleth and distinguishes the Lib Dems from Labour who are suffering from Brexit hangups, and to some extent from the Conservatives who don't have a coherent post Brexit trade policy
Not a great policy for anyone who thinks about it for very long though. Being in the customs union, but outside the single market would put us in a worse position than we are now. It only makes sense as a policy if they are both linked.
Nor does it follow that evading swingeing tariffs on the EU is “sucking up to Trump”.
I hate Trump as much as the next man, maybe more, but his existence cannot be wished away.
How has that worked out for Canada?
The best way to avoid swingeing Trump tariffs is the threaten him back rather than kowtow to him. Propose to turn Turnberry into an army artillery range or something.
Is Canada suggesting it join the EU’s customs union?
No, it hasn’t.
If and when the USA announces tariffs on the UK, then we should respond in kind. But we don’t need to join the EU to take one for the team, or whatever it is you are suggesting.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
Anyone aligning with Trump is the stupid one. If the price of alignment is complete submission to his desires - and it is, because cross him or even out-perform the US in some trade sectors and he'll come after you - then it is unacceptably high. Previous loyalty doesn't count for anything at that point, nor treaties signed, and extortion and corruption is both expected and necessary in those circumstances.
Britain has no choice of neutrality if there is a trade war between Trump and the EU for the same reason. If we are not with him, totally, then he will regard us as against him.
Not to mention that it might not be just trade. I would take his threat to invade sovereign Danish territory seriously.
Britain's interests are aligned with the EU much more than with the US now. It is wise to co-operate where we can.
Fuck that, we go with The Donald
He’s an Anglo-Celt. He’s one of us. He’s of the blood
In the end this global war will come down to blood ties
ONWARDS TO KATTEGAT
*goes back to Vikings Valhalla*
Well, you and Nigel have the same approach. He's after $100m, and you're after a sale or two of the gazette. Dimmer than Nigel is a hell of an epitaph.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
Anyone aligning with Trump is the stupid one. If the price of alignment is complete submission to his desires - and it is, because cross him or even out-perform the US in some trade sectors and he'll come after you - then it is unacceptably high. Previous loyalty doesn't count for anything at that point, nor treaties signed, and extortion and corruption is both expected and necessary in those circumstances.
Britain has no choice of neutrality if there is a trade war between Trump and the EU for the same reason. If we are not with him, totally, then he will regard us as against him.
Not to mention that it might not be just trade. I would take his threat to invade sovereign Danish territory seriously.
Britain's interests are aligned with the EU much more than with the US now. It is wise to co-operate where we can.
Fuck that, we go with The Donald
He’s an Anglo-Celt. He’s one of us. He’s of the blood
In the end this global war will come down to blood ties
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
You keep writing this. I don't see it personally. I am not expecting a forgive and forget note from the electorate for the last 14 years and particularly last five years of Tory misconduct.
Yes Labour might get spanked and Reform are the beneficiaries, but your extrapolation for a parallel Tory revival seems unlikely. It could happen if both parties do as Suella has advocated, but Lib Dem, Green and Labour voters will be looking at reducing the size of your RefCon coalition.
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
The Cons would have to become an anti-Brexit (and Trump), socially liberal, internationalist party for that to be remotely possible. There's not much sign of this happening.
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
The Cons would have to become an anti-Brexit (and Trump), socially liberal, internationalist party for that to be remotely possible. There's not much sign of this happening.
By that point supporting European integration will be more right-coded and seen as vaguely white nationalist.
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
Reform aren't AfD or Le Pen. Indeed I struggle to see the difference between them and the most active wing of the Conservative party. Populist charlatatans who will fail to implement their promises if and when they do get power, and manage the rest of government very badly.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
Anyone aligning with Trump is the stupid one. If the price of alignment is complete submission to his desires - and it is, because cross him or even out-perform the US in some trade sectors and he'll come after you - then it is unacceptably high. Previous loyalty doesn't count for anything at that point, nor treaties signed, and extortion and corruption is both expected and necessary in those circumstances.
Britain has no choice of neutrality if there is a trade war between Trump and the EU for the same reason. If we are not with him, totally, then he will regard us as against him.
Not to mention that it might not be just trade. I would take his threat to invade sovereign Danish territory seriously.
Britain's interests are aligned with the EU much more than with the US now. It is wise to co-operate where we can.
Fuck that, we go with The Donald
He’s an Anglo-Celt. He’s one of us. He’s of the blood
In the end this global war will come down to blood ties
ONWARDS TO KATTEGAT
*goes back to Vikings Valhalla*
He most certainly is not one of us. Language aside, I feel about as much in tune with him and the ghastlies who support him as I do with a camel.
Camels: they spit, they gave us MERS... still better than Trump then.
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
If you're talking about John Prescott when he punched someone in north Wales, an egg was thrown at him and he hit out in self defence.
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
The Cons would have to become an anti-Brexit (and Trump), socially liberal, internationalist party for that to be remotely possible. There's not much sign of this happening.
He's writing bollocks Kinabalu.
What, William? Cmon.
Anyway, now he's saying the EU is going to become a white supremacy project, so I have to try and deal with that.
Or you can if you want. I might say something a bit loose that he's able to spin back at me.
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
If you're talking about John Prescott when he punched someone in north Wales, an egg was thrown at him and he hit out in self defence.
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
With Prescott it was self-defence. He reacted instinctively the moment he was attacked by the other person.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
I think it's clever politics from the Lib Dems, in a Clause IV way. A join the Customs Union policy is a clear statement. It's practical - it is where you would start if you want a closer arrangement with the EU. It usefully attacks a shibboleth and distinguishes the Lib Dems from Labour who are suffering from Brexit hangups, and to some extent from the Conservatives who don't have a coherent post Brexit trade policy
Not a great policy for anyone who thinks about it for very long though. Being in the customs union, but outside the single market would put us in a worse position than we are now. It only makes sense as a policy if they are both linked.
Nor does it follow that evading swingeing tariffs on the EU is “sucking up to Trump”.
I hate Trump as much as the next man, maybe more, but his existence cannot be wished away.
How has that worked out for Canada?
The best way to avoid swingeing Trump tariffs is the threaten him back rather than kowtow to him. Propose to turn Turnberry into an army artillery range or something.
Is Canada suggesting it join the EU’s customs union?
No, it hasn’t.
If and when the USA announces tariffs on the UK, then we should respond in kind. But we don’t need to join the EU to take one for the team, or whatever it is you are suggesting.
No, Canada gave up a decent trade deal it had for a marginally less beneficial one, in order to appease Trump. Who is now ripping it up and threatening hefty tariffs. You cannot do deals with this man that he will not break if he thinks it would be beneficial. We know the rule of law means nothing to him. He is utterly unreliable other than in his pursuit of his personal self-interest.
But there is strength in numbers and scale, both against Russia and also (ludicrously but sadly now realistically), against the US.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
I think it's clever politics from the Lib Dems, in a Clause IV way. A join the Customs Union policy is a clear statement. It's practical - it is where you would start if you want a closer arrangement with the EU. It usefully attacks a shibboleth and distinguishes the Lib Dems from Labour who are suffering from Brexit hangups, and to some extent from the Conservatives who don't have a coherent post Brexit trade policy
Not a great policy for anyone who thinks about it for very long though. Being in the customs union, but outside the single market would put us in a worse position than we are now. It only makes sense as a policy if they are both linked.
Go on - follow that logic through.
Well for a start it would mean the end of us conducting any of our own meaningful trade deals. What's the point of giving that up if you're not just going to rejoin the whole thing.
Obviously the type of customs union negotiated may allow some flexibility on our own trade deals, but the more flexibility we have the less valuable the actual customs union would be.
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
Prescott acted in self-defence after someone smashed an egg into him. Amesbury punched first. A clear difference.
Neither Prescott or the egg guy were ever charged.
Set up an employment agency and you can meet any number of forcibly-retired MPs.
Behind the paywall. Is it Gullis? Perhaps being such an unpleasant roaster (particularly when one is a career teacher) whist being an MP in a RedWall seat wasn't such a good idea afterall.
shows how easy it is for absolute dummies to become MP's and then they cannot even get a job in the real world.
If it is Gullis, he was formerly a teacher. Probably a very good teacher. But he spent the last five years spitting bile in the most high profile way. I hope he finds his feet, although I would be reluctant to offer him a job in education.
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
If you're talking about John Prescott when he punched someone in north Wales, an egg was thrown at him and he hit out in self defence.
Well, I dunno. What was the situation which led to the fracas in Frodsham? Was the other fella having a go? It's murky. I only saw the film of the aftermath, but my inference was that Mike Amesbury's patience had snapped after being goaded - we didn't get to see what led up to it.
Coincidentally, I've just been reading about an MP for a Fife seat in the late 18th century who would walk from his constituency to Westminster, enriching himself on the way 'with many a prize hat for cudgel play or wrestling'. Perhaps something in this tradition was going on. Perhaps a hat was at stake.
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
You keep writing this. I don't see it personally. I am not expecting a forgive and forget note from the electorate for the last 14 years and particularly last five years of Tory misconduct.
Yes Labour might get spanked and Reform are the beneficiaries, but your extrapolation for a parallel Tory revival seems unlikely. It could happen if both parties do as Suella has advocated, but Lib Dem, Green and Labour voters will be looking at reducing the size of your RefCon coalition.
You do need to remember that most voters vote primarily to pick a PM/government, so unless you're suggesting that LD and Labour voters in Con/Ref seats would see Badenoch and Farage as equally bad then the question will arise.
Set up an employment agency and you can meet any number of forcibly-retired MPs.
Behind the paywall. Is it Gullis? Perhaps being such an unpleasant roaster (particularly when one is a career teacher) whist being an MP in a RedWall seat wasn't such a good idea afterall.
shows how easy it is for absolute dummies to become MP's and then they cannot even get a job in the real world.
If it is Gullis, he was formerly a teacher. Probably a very good teacher. But he spent the last five years spitting bile in the most high profile way. I hope he finds his feet, although I would be reluctant to offer him a job in education.
I'm sure any ex-MP can go to a temp agency and get some basic office work. I suspect what they want is a wage befitting their imagined status.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
Anyone aligning with Trump is the stupid one. If the price of alignment is complete submission to his desires - and it is, because cross him or even out-perform the US in some trade sectors and he'll come after you - then it is unacceptably high. Previous loyalty doesn't count for anything at that point, nor treaties signed, and extortion and corruption is both expected and necessary in those circumstances.
Britain has no choice of neutrality if there is a trade war between Trump and the EU for the same reason. If we are not with him, totally, then he will regard us as against him.
Not to mention that it might not be just trade. I would take his threat to invade sovereign Danish territory seriously.
Britain's interests are aligned with the EU much more than with the US now. It is wise to co-operate where we can.
Fuck that, we go with The Donald
He’s an Anglo-Celt. He’s one of us. He’s of the blood
In the end this global war will come down to blood ties
ONWARDS TO KATTEGAT
*goes back to Vikings Valhalla*
He most certainly is not one of us. Language aside, I feel about as much in tune with him and the ghastlies who support him as I do with a camel.
Camels: they spit, they gave us MERS... still better than Trump then.
Set up an employment agency and you can meet any number of forcibly-retired MPs.
Behind the paywall. Is it Gullis? Perhaps being such an unpleasant roaster (particularly when one is a career teacher) whist being an MP in a RedWall seat wasn't such a good idea afterall.
shows how easy it is for absolute dummies to become MP's and then they cannot even get a job in the real world.
If it is Gullis, he was formerly a teacher. Probably a very good teacher. But he spent the last five years spitting bile in the most high profile way. I hope he finds his feet, although I would be reluctant to offer him a job in education.
I'm sure any ex-MP can go to a temp agency and get some basic office work. I suspect what they want is a wage befitting their imagined status.
It's quite common among people who've crashed out of other carreers, to find that they are "over skilled" for many jobs. Employers don't want to employ someone who will leave as soon as they can...
"I do think the the Tories are facing an existential crisis where they are overtaken in votes by Reform and in seats by the Lib Dems"
This is nothing new. Forget Left vs Right, Cosmopolitan vs Rural, Pensioners vs Youngsters and any other paradigms. In pure electoral terms, British (well, English) politics is 'Tories vs Everybody else' and has been so for close to 40 years.
Lib Dems may talk about how different they are to Reform, and Reform may bang on about being the real opposition to Labour, but our system is about constituency battles, and in pretty much every single damn case, it's somebody vs the Conservatives, and all the non-Tory parties have a vested interest in each other doing well, whatever they say and regardless of how crocadilic their shed tears may be.
At the height of the Blair governments unpopularity and opposition to the Iraq war, the Lib Dems decided that the best election strategy was to 'decapitate' senior Tories.
In 1997, James Goldsmiths short-lived Referendum party wilfully stood candidates against Eurosceptic Tories, in some cases costing them their seats and boosting the size of the Labour majority. Reform arguably did the same in 2024.
It's Tories vs Toryphobes, as it has been for my entire adult life, and if we're not careful the collusion will finally achieve its end game.
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
With Prescott it was self-defence. He reacted instinctively the moment he was attacked by the other person.
Swinging wildly whilst pissed is definitely unparliamentary behaviour. Eric Joyce can vouch for that.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
Anyone aligning with Trump is the stupid one. If the price of alignment is complete submission to his desires - and it is, because cross him or even out-perform the US in some trade sectors and he'll come after you - then it is unacceptably high. Previous loyalty doesn't count for anything at that point, nor treaties signed, and extortion and corruption is both expected and necessary in those circumstances.
Britain has no choice of neutrality if there is a trade war between Trump and the EU for the same reason. If we are not with him, totally, then he will regard us as against him.
Not to mention that it might not be just trade. I would take his threat to invade sovereign Danish territory seriously.
Britain's interests are aligned with the EU much more than with the US now. It is wise to co-operate where we can.
Fuck that, we go with The Donald
He’s an Anglo-Celt. He’s one of us. He’s of the blood
In the end this global war will come down to blood ties
ONWARDS TO KATTEGAT
*goes back to Vikings Valhalla*
He's German on his father's side.
Darling: "I'm as British as Queen Victoria!"
Blackadder: "So your father's German, you're half German, and you married a German!"
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
The Cons would have to become an anti-Brexit (and Trump), socially liberal, internationalist party for that to be remotely possible. There's not much sign of this happening.
He's writing bollocks Kinabalu.
What, William? Cmon.
Anyway, now he's saying the EU is going to become a white supremacy project, so I have to try and deal with that.
Or you can if you want. I might say something a bit loose that he's able to spin back at me.
Is he for or against white supremacy? It's hard to keep up at times.
"I do think the the Tories are facing an existential crisis where they are overtaken in votes by Reform and in seats by the Lib Dems"
This is nothing new. Forget Left vs Right, Cosmopolitan vs Rural, Pensioners vs Youngsters and any other paradigms. In pure electoral terms, British (well, English) politics is 'Tories vs Everybody else' and has been so for close to 40 years.
Lib Dems may talk about how different they are to Reform, and Reform may bang on about being the real opposition to Labour, but our system is about constituency battles, and in pretty much every single damn case, it's somebody vs the Conservatives, and all the non-Tory parties have a vested interest in each other doing well, whatever they say and regardless of how crocadilic their shed tears may be.
At the height of the Blair governments unpopularity and opposition to the Iraq war, the Lib Dems decided that the best election strategy was to 'decapitate' senior Tories.
In 1997, James Goldsmiths short-lived Referendum party wilfully stood candidates against Eurosceptic Tories, in some cases costing them their seats and boosting the size of the Labour majority. Reform arguably did the same in 2024.
It's Tories vs Toryphobes, as it has been for my entire adult life, and if we're not careful the collusion will finally achieve its end game.
"I do think the the Tories are facing an existential crisis where they are overtaken in votes by Reform and in seats by the Lib Dems"
This is nothing new. Forget Left vs Right, Cosmopolitan vs Rural, Pensioners vs Youngsters and any other paradigms. In pure electoral terms, British (well, English) politics is 'Tories vs Everybody else' and has been so for close to 40 years.
Lib Dems may talk about how different they are to Reform, and Reform may bang on about being the real opposition to Labour, but our system is about constituency battles, and in pretty much every single damn case, it's somebody vs the Conservatives, and all the non-Tory parties have a vested interest in each other doing well, whatever they say and regardless of how crocadilic their shed tears may be.
At the height of the Blair governments unpopularity and opposition to the Iraq war, the Lib Dems decided that the best election strategy was to 'decapitate' senior Tories.
In 1997, James Goldsmiths short-lived Referendum party wilfully stood candidates against Eurosceptic Tories, in some cases costing them their seats and boosting the size of the Labour majority. Reform arguably did the same in 2024.
It's Tories vs Toryphobes, as it has been for my entire adult life, and if we're not careful the collusion will finally achieve its end game.
Doesn't it depend on where you're standing. Some people may think it's Labour vs everybody else. I think it's true that a lot of people, maybe most, vote against a party rather than for one. It certainly seemed that way in the last GE.
Set up an employment agency and you can meet any number of forcibly-retired MPs.
Behind the paywall. Is it Gullis? Perhaps being such an unpleasant roaster (particularly when one is a career teacher) whist being an MP in a RedWall seat wasn't such a good idea afterall.
shows how easy it is for absolute dummies to become MP's and then they cannot even get a job in the real world.
If it is Gullis, he was formerly a teacher. Probably a very good teacher. But he spent the last five years spitting bile in the most high profile way. I hope he finds his feet, although I would be reluctant to offer him a job in education.
You'd think there must be some private school somewhere in the land that would welcome a former MP to teach politics, possibly as head of department, although with the VAT thing I don't suppose they can pay him much. Gullis was promoted to Parliamentary Under-Sec by Liz Truss but after seven weeks was knocked off the greasy pole by Rishi.
"Many Labour activists and Westminster-watchers will be wondering if a by-election looms in Runcorn and Helsby after MP Mike Amesbury pleaded guilty to assault."
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
If you're talking about John Prescott when he punched someone in north Wales, an egg was thrown at him and he hit out in self defence.
Well, I dunno. What was the situation which led to the fracas in Frodsham? Was the other fella having a go? It's murky. I only saw the film of the aftermath, but my inference was that Mike Amesbury's patience had snapped after being goaded - we didn't get to see what led up to it.
Coincidentally, I've just been reading about an MP for a Fife seat in the late 18th century who would walk from his constituency to Westminster, enriching himself on the way 'with many a prize hat for cudgel play or wrestling'. Perhaps something in this tradition was going on. Perhaps a hat was at stake.
I'm no lawyer, other than my very valuable Law A Level, but my understanding is that you need to be in some fear of a threat of violence to yourself, or someone else to use self - defence.
Prescott was hit with an egg at close range and punched on instinct. From what I remember of the recent labour MP it was very much a sucker punch, goaded or not. He seems to have accepted there was no self defence, defence.
I see the Lib Dems have come out in favour of a customs union with the EU on the eve of Donald Trump declaring a trade war on them.
Bloody idiots.
It is very difficult to determine who is the most stupid party at Westminster now.
I think it's clever politics from the Lib Dems, in a Clause IV way. A join the Customs Union policy is a clear statement. It's practical - it is where you would start if you want a closer arrangement with the EU. It usefully attacks a shibboleth and distinguishes the Lib Dems from Labour who are suffering from Brexit hangups, and to some extent from the Conservatives who don't have a coherent post Brexit trade policy
Not a great policy for anyone who thinks about it for very long though. Being in the customs union, but outside the single market would put us in a worse position than we are now. It only makes sense as a policy if they are both linked.
Go on - follow that logic through.
Well for a start it would mean the end of us conducting any of our own meaningful trade deals. What's the point of giving that up if you're not just going to rejoin the whole thing.
Obviously the type of customs union negotiated may allow some flexibility on our own trade deals, but the more flexibility we have the less valuable the actual customs union would be.
What if none of our non EU trade deals are meaningful? Or at least more meaningful in aggregate than what we would have under an EU Customs Union. As I say, no-one cares whether widgets are taxed at 0.8% rather than 1.2%.
Being outside an EU Customs Union might be a touchstone of an independent trading nation. But attacking the shibboleth is where the value is for the Lib Dems. They won't actually deliver a Customs Union. It's enough to say it is a clear and practical goal that takes the UK in a desirable direction.
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
You keep writing this. I don't see it personally. I am not expecting a forgive and forget note from the electorate for the last 14 years and particularly last five years of Tory misconduct.
Yes Labour might get spanked and Reform are the beneficiaries, but your extrapolation for a parallel Tory revival seems unlikely. It could happen if both parties do as Suella has advocated, but Lib Dem, Green and Labour voters will be looking at reducing the size of your RefCon coalition.
You do need to remember that most voters vote primarily to pick a PM/government, so unless you're suggesting that LD and Labour voters in Con/Ref seats would see Badenoch and Farage as equally bad then the question will arise.
I think they might. I.might. I think you underestimate the hatred we "never kissed a Tory" crowd have for any form of right wing populism.
Who would you like to have met and had a conversation with? One dead, one alive.
This changes for me, but at the moment: Robert Hooke and Kate Bush.
My erstwhile boss toured with Kate Bush
Duke of Wellington and Warren Buffet
You must be very old. Speaking of old Scots, this morning I was at Barts Hospital, with its plaque marking the execution of William Wallace (and some Protestant martyrs and Wat Tyler).
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
You keep writing this. I don't see it personally. I am not expecting a forgive and forget note from the electorate for the last 14 years and particularly last five years of Tory misconduct.
Yes Labour might get spanked and Reform are the beneficiaries, but your extrapolation for a parallel Tory revival seems unlikely. It could happen if both parties do as Suella has advocated, but Lib Dem, Green and Labour voters will be looking at reducing the size of your RefCon coalition.
You do need to remember that most voters vote primarily to pick a PM/government, so unless you're suggesting that LD and Labour voters in Con/Ref seats would see Badenoch and Farage as equally bad then the question will arise.
I think they might. I.might. I think you underestimate the hatred we "never kissed a Tory" crowd have for any form of right wing populism.
Thankfully their numbers are dwindling. 50/50 left right split in the latest poll.
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
If you're talking about John Prescott when he punched someone in north Wales, an egg was thrown at him and he hit out in self defence.
Well, I dunno. What was the situation which led to the fracas in Frodsham? Was the other fella having a go? It's murky. I only saw the film of the aftermath, but my inference was that Mike Amesbury's patience had snapped after being goaded - we didn't get to see what led up to it.
Coincidentally, I've just been reading about an MP for a Fife seat in the late 18th century who would walk from his constituency to Westminster, enriching himself on the way 'with many a prize hat for cudgel play or wrestling'. Perhaps something in this tradition was going on. Perhaps a hat was at stake.
I'm no lawyer, other than my very valuable Law A Level, but my understanding is that you need to be in some fear of a threat of violence to yourself, or someone else to use self - defence.
Prescott was hit with an egg at close range and punched on instinct. From what I remember of the recent labour MP it was very much a sucker punch, goaded or not. He seems to have accepted there was no self defence, defence.
My newsagents' daughter harboured ambitions for a legal career. I put her (or rather, her father) off Law A-level as it had recently featured alongside media studies and general studies in a list of Mickey Mouse subjects not taken seriously by university admissions tutors. Things might have changed but I see you too failed to make the bar.
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
If you're talking about John Prescott when he punched someone in north Wales, an egg was thrown at him and he hit out in self defence.
Well, I dunno. What was the situation which led to the fracas in Frodsham? Was the other fella having a go? It's murky. I only saw the film of the aftermath, but my inference was that Mike Amesbury's patience had snapped after being goaded - we didn't get to see what led up to it.
Coincidentally, I've just been reading about an MP for a Fife seat in the late 18th century who would walk from his constituency to Westminster, enriching himself on the way 'with many a prize hat for cudgel play or wrestling'. Perhaps something in this tradition was going on. Perhaps a hat was at stake.
I'm no lawyer, other than my very valuable Law A Level, but my understanding is that you need to be in some fear of a threat of violence to yourself, or someone else to use self - defence.
Prescott was hit with an egg at close range and punched on instinct. From what I remember of the recent labour MP it was very much a sucker punch, goaded or not. He seems to have accepted there was no self defence, defence.
Fair enough. I certainly think Prescott's punch was justified. I wonder what the lead-up to Amesbury's situation was, though.
A generation ago, people used to have fights much more often. It was just accepted as part of life. On balance the present is better.
I've met quite a few tech billionaires, but very few politicians.
Obviously, living in LA you meet famous people in the entertainment industry all the time. May favourite recent one was Ed Norton, whose daughter was in the same musical theatre production as my son. (Matt Berninger from the National used to be a parent at my kids' school, and Christina Agliera still is.)
I had Gal Gadot and Halma Sayek as Co-parents. It was funny to watch my fellow fathers flock around Gal 😂
When we lived in London, my son was at school with Damian Lewis's son. And he used to do pickup all the time.
They'd always be 20 mothers surrounding him, hanging on his every word.
Now I know you are making it up. The boys ginger, no-ones going for that...
You are treading on very dangerous ground Mr @turbotubbs.
Set up an employment agency and you can meet any number of forcibly-retired MPs.
Behind the paywall. Is it Gullis? Perhaps being such an unpleasant roaster (particularly when one is a career teacher) whist being an MP in a RedWall seat wasn't such a good idea afterall.
shows how easy it is for absolute dummies to become MP's and then they cannot even get a job in the real world.
If it is Gullis, he was formerly a teacher. Probably a very good teacher. But he spent the last five years spitting bile in the most high profile way. I hope he finds his feet, although I would be reluctant to offer him a job in education.
It's Charles Walker who's only made £575, not sure how he's in that position, he decided to retire in 2022 so had ample time to sort out some lucrative gigs. According to wiki, Gullis was at 4 schools in his 7 year teaching career, possibly moving around for PPC opportunities but it doesn't look good. I do have a bit of sympathy for the one complaining of ageism, asked an agent today why he'd added my University dates to my CV, presumably having found them on linkedin, and was then asked to confirm DOB.
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
If you're talking about John Prescott when he punched someone in north Wales, an egg was thrown at him and he hit out in self defence.
Well, I dunno. What was the situation which led to the fracas in Frodsham? Was the other fella having a go? It's murky. I only saw the film of the aftermath, but my inference was that Mike Amesbury's patience had snapped after being goaded - we didn't get to see what led up to it.
Coincidentally, I've just been reading about an MP for a Fife seat in the late 18th century who would walk from his constituency to Westminster, enriching himself on the way 'with many a prize hat for cudgel play or wrestling'. Perhaps something in this tradition was going on. Perhaps a hat was at stake.
I'm no lawyer, other than my very valuable Law A Level, but my understanding is that you need to be in some fear of a threat of violence to yourself, or someone else to use self - defence.
Prescott was hit with an egg at close range and punched on instinct. From what I remember of the recent labour MP it was very much a sucker punch, goaded or not. He seems to have accepted there was no self defence, defence.
My newsagents' daughter harboured ambitions for a legal career. I put her (or rather, her father) off Law A-level as it had recently featured alongside media studies and general studies in a list of Mickey Mouse subjects not taken seriously by university admissions tutors. Things might have changed but I see you too failed to make the bar.
At the time (2006-8) I thought I was the dogs bollocks taking a law A Level and thought it meant I was a clever boy. Many people have disabused me of that since.
It was way too easy for an A-level. you just need a good memory for acts of parliament and case law. But that's nearly 20 years ago, could be better or a lot worse now.
This will be a fascinating byelection, with Reform and the Conservatives throwing absolutely everything at it.
And my gut is that Reform will win it: most Labour supporters will stay home (I'd reckon their vote total will drop to something like 7-8,000), while Reform will grab a few Labour and Conservative supporters, and get their 2024 voters out.
I don't agree. Runcorn itself is outer Liverpool which for the past fifteen years has been unusually loyal to Labour. I suspect enough of the vote will come out. And Helsby and Frodsham, which I know reasonably well, doesn't feel to me like natural Reform territory. Frodsham in particular is pretty comfortably off.
Reform's chance at Runcorn - which I put at about 50% as things stand - is simply this: few will turn out, and there are no reasons to turn out for Labour - they already have a million MPs and have just removed grandma's WFA and lost you your 16 hours a week job at Next, and no reasons to turn out for the Tories because they were and are useless beyond belief and a total irrelevance.
There is a reason to turn out for Reform - they are the only party that isn't tainted by government and won't make you install a heat pump that doesn't work and power your car by windmills.
I have family in the Cheshire section of the seat. I don't know for sure but my best guess is that votes for LD/Lab/DNV/Lab will become votes for Con/DNV/DNV/DNV. I'd be surprised if any vote Ref. Though guesswork and anecdata and its from an atypical part of the seat, so, treat with caution.
The Tories should sit this one out.
It will pit massive pressure on Labour if Reform win . If Reform lose it pus the Cons on the front foot.
If the Tories sit it out they are effectively ceding large chunks of the Labour-Tory marginal lands to their right wing rivals. Whilst perturbing those blue wall Lib Dems they want back. Seems unlikely.
Millions of Lib Dem and Labour voters will find that they have to vote Tory to stop Farage being Prime Minister. Polly Toynbee will endorse voting for them while wearing a clothes peg on your nose.
You keep writing this. I don't see it personally. I am not expecting a forgive and forget note from the electorate for the last 14 years and particularly last five years of Tory misconduct.
Yes Labour might get spanked and Reform are the beneficiaries, but your extrapolation for a parallel Tory revival seems unlikely. It could happen if both parties do as Suella has advocated, but Lib Dem, Green and Labour voters will be looking at reducing the size of your RefCon coalition.
You do need to remember that most voters vote primarily to pick a PM/government, so unless you're suggesting that LD and Labour voters in Con/Ref seats would see Badenoch and Farage as equally bad then the question will arise.
I think they might. I.might. I think you underestimate the hatred we "never kissed a Tory" crowd have for any form of right wing populism.
Thankfully their numbers are dwindling. 50/50 left right split in the latest poll.
I'll really worry when the far right/ left leaning split reaches 52% plays 48%. So nearly there but not quite yet.
Comments
I have no evidence for that suspicion however.
I haven't met many famous people. It's a slightly awkward encounter. You already know all the things about them you'd normally use as a conversation starter. But they know nothing about you. But launching into a brief bio to even the score seems a little conversationally odd.
Hence the conversation in which we agreed with each other in our hope that the buffet contained chips.
There are few famous people I particularly want to meet. But I'd always wanted to meet the snooker MC Rob Walker. AFAICS he has one job, which is to introduce snooker. How does one arrive in such a job? What do they look for on a CV for this? He's very good at it. And then one day, improbably, I did meet him, and completely forgot all the questions I had for him. So we just had a brief chat about snooker.
He seemed just as nice a fella in real life as he seems on the telly.
I am not sure of the equivalence. I am sure there are varying stages of "bad".
Tories will never win in Barnsley nor Reform in Kensington.
Britain has no choice of neutrality if there is a trade war between Trump and the EU for the same reason. If we are not with him, totally, then he will regard us as against him.
Not to mention that it might not be just trade. I would take his threat to invade sovereign Danish territory seriously.
Britain's interests are aligned with the EU much more than with the US now. It is wise to co-operate where we can.
Who would you like to have met and had a conversation with? One dead, one alive.
This changes for me, but at the moment: Robert Hooke and Kate Bush.
Braverman refuses to rule out defecting to Reform
Former home secretary declines to say whether she will join Nigel Farage’s party or still be a Tory MP by end of this Parliament
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/16/suella-braverman-refuses-rule-out-defecting-reform-uk/
It doesn’t matter if the target vote right now see it as “positive”. It’s an objectively stupid policy which falls apart upon the slightest scrutiny.
This is effectively populism and opportunism dressed up as centrism, and will actually do the Lib Dems no benefit politically at all.
It's also higher than anything they managed in the 2019-24 parliament. Even PeoplePolling only managed to give them a 24% (just two weeks before the election, when they actually got only a little over half that). But in their previous Brexit Party incarnation, they peaked at 26% (three times, each of which gave them an outright lead), just after the 2019 European election.
Briefly, I squatted with him and about 30 other people in Albany St, NW1
Generally used to meet him in Soho in the 80s. He is (is he still alive?) a very nice guy. Charming, funny, self effacing. He was meant to be Withnail in Withnail and I but lost out to Richard E Grant at the last moment, and Bruce Dickinson (scriptwriter/director) always wondered if Tudor-Pole would have been even better. Tenpole was certainly more authentically Withnailian, he WAS Withnail, drunk, faded posh, funny - whereas Richard E Grant was and is teetotal and a bit soppy (but gave a standout performance nonetheless)
Sliding Doors, huh
I hate Trump as much as the next man, maybe more, but his existence cannot be wished away.
He’s an Anglo-Celt. He’s one of us. He’s of the blood
In the end this global war will come down to blood ties
ONWARDS TO KATTEGAT
*goes back to Vikings Valhalla*
Ah, I can gift this article so you can read it via
https://telegraph.co.uk/gift/f6e3d653acb25914
The best way to avoid swingeing Trump tariffs is the threaten him back rather than kowtow to him. Propose to turn Turnberry into an army artillery range or something.
But it is high in symbolism, both if you see the UK as in independent trading country or if you see a close relationship with the EU as the way forward. That symbolism works to the Lib Dem advantage I think.
Obviously the type of customs union negotiated may allow some flexibility on our own trade deals, but the more flexibility we have the less valuable the actual customs union would be.
I think her pugilism would come in useful for that battle.
No, it hasn’t.
If and when the USA announces tariffs on the UK, then we should respond in kind. But we don’t need to join the EU to take one for the team, or whatever it is you are suggesting.
https://www.varsity.co.uk/news/24186
Yes Labour might get spanked and Reform are the beneficiaries, but your extrapolation for a parallel Tory revival seems unlikely. It could happen if both parties do as Suella has advocated, but Lib Dem, Green and Labour voters will be looking at reducing the size of your RefCon coalition.
https://x.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1879860043031724207?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
I thought it was just Trump, coz he’s mad. It’s obvs not
Why do they do it? Just looks bizarre and a bit crazy
I don't recollect any action being taken against John Prescott when he lashed out at someone.
Is it just that society has changed or was there action that I missed?
(I'm not sure what this competition is about although I've been dipping in & out of the thread all day. My only contribution is that I once encountered John Smith & his entourage on a railway station platform - Leeds or York, I forget - and that my ignorance-is-bliss approval of him instantly fell away when I observed how puffed up he was.)
Anyway, now he's saying the EU is going to become a white supremacy project, so I have to try and deal with that.
Or you can if you want. I might say something a bit loose that he's able to spin back at me.
But there is strength in numbers and scale, both against Russia and also (ludicrously but sadly now realistically), against the US.
Neither Prescott or the egg guy were ever charged.
Coincidentally, I've just been reading about an MP for a Fife seat in the late 18th century who would walk from his constituency to Westminster, enriching himself on the way 'with many a prize hat for cudgel play or wrestling'. Perhaps something in this tradition was going on. Perhaps a hat was at stake.
Duvet day for me.
This is nothing new. Forget Left vs Right, Cosmopolitan vs Rural, Pensioners vs Youngsters and any other paradigms. In pure electoral terms, British (well, English) politics is 'Tories vs Everybody else' and has been so for close to 40 years.
Lib Dems may talk about how different they are to Reform, and Reform may bang on about being the real opposition to Labour, but our system is about constituency battles, and in pretty much every single damn case, it's somebody vs the Conservatives, and all the non-Tory parties have a vested interest in each other doing well, whatever they say and regardless of how crocadilic their shed tears may be.
At the height of the Blair governments unpopularity and opposition to the Iraq war, the Lib Dems decided that the best election strategy was to 'decapitate' senior Tories.
In 1997, James Goldsmiths short-lived Referendum party wilfully stood candidates against Eurosceptic Tories, in some cases costing them their seats and boosting the size of the Labour majority. Reform arguably did the same in 2024.
It's Tories vs Toryphobes, as it has been for my entire adult life, and if we're not careful the collusion will finally achieve its end game.
Blackadder: "So your father's German, you're half German, and you married a German!"
But then, as I have found relatively late in life, I find makeup repulsive.
https://labourlist.org/2025/01/mike-amesbury-by-election-runcorn-helsby-labour-reform/
Prescott was hit with an egg at close range and punched on instinct. From what I remember of the recent labour MP it was very much a sucker punch, goaded or not. He seems to have accepted there was no self defence, defence.
Being outside an EU Customs Union might be a touchstone of an independent trading nation. But attacking the shibboleth is where the value is for the Lib Dems. They won't actually deliver a Customs Union. It's enough to say it is a clear and practical goal that takes the UK in a desirable direction.
I certainly think Prescott's punch was justified. I wonder what the lead-up to Amesbury's situation was, though.
A generation ago, people used to have fights much more often. It was just accepted as part of life. On balance the present is better.
According to wiki, Gullis was at 4 schools in his 7 year teaching career, possibly moving around for PPC opportunities but it doesn't look good.
I do have a bit of sympathy for the one complaining of ageism, asked an agent today why he'd added my University dates to my CV, presumably having found them on linkedin, and was then asked to confirm DOB.
it meant I was a clever boy. Many people have disabused me of that since.
It was way too easy for an A-level. you just need a good memory for acts of parliament and case law. But that's nearly 20 years ago, could be better or a lot worse now.
It's probably burnt down now, so no need for a blue plaque...