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If Lab doesn't succeed perhaps the voters will turn to somebody other than the Tories?

124

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,580

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Nice to see YouGov back in the fray. Another nasty headache for Kemi there, and little comfort for Labour.
    Baxter gives Lib-Lab pact on that I think.

    I would take that if I was Starmer at the moment!! LOL
    The LDs would play hardball though and demand Starmer restores agricultural property relief in full, restores winter fuel allowance for pensioners and takes the UK closer to the EEA single market too and maybe even with a PR referendum as well
  • Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Nice to see YouGov back in the fray. Another nasty headache for Kemi there, and little comfort for Labour.
    Baxter gives Lib-Lab pact on that I think.

    I would take that if I was Starmer at the moment!! LOL
    Hilariously the Tories actually gain seats on the share, presumably because of the swing vis a vis Labour. Farage on 100+.

    The big questions are now 1) what is Reform’s ceiling 2) what is Labour’s floor and 3) will any more of the Tory vote jump ship.
    4) - Will there be a deal with Reform and Conservatives to keep Labour out ?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,774
    edited January 13
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Nice to see YouGov back in the fray. Another nasty headache for Kemi there, and little comfort for Labour.
    Baxter gives Lib-Lab pact on that I think.

    I would take that if I was Starmer at the moment!! LOL
    The LDs would play hardball though and demand Starmer restores agricultural property relief in full, restores winter fuel allowance for pensioners and takes the UK closer to the EEA single market too and maybe even with a PR referendum as well
    Given the type of election result that gave a Labour LD coalition - I would have thought the conditions would be PR without a referendum and Labour would agree...
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,223
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Nice to see YouGov back in the fray. Another nasty headache for Kemi there, and little comfort for Labour.
    Baxter gives Lib-Lab pact on that I think.

    I would take that if I was Starmer at the moment!! LOL
    The LDs would play hardball though and demand Starmer restores agricultural property relief in full, restores winter fuel allowance for pensioners and takes the UK closer to the EEA single market too and maybe even with a PR referendum as well
    Given the type of election result that gave a Labour LD coalition - I would have thought the conditions would be PR without a referendum and Labour would agree...
    That would draw an interesting reaction from the public after numbers like this!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,637
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Nice to see YouGov back in the fray. Another nasty headache for Kemi there, and little comfort for Labour.
    It's a lot worse than little comfort most of those new Reform voters are from the GE Labour vote....
    Messier than that. From the linked article;

    Labour has retained 54% of their vote at the general election - 7% have gone to the Lib Dems, 6% to the Green Party, 5% to Reform UK, 4% to the Tories - while 23% of those polled did not say, did not know or would not vote.

    It all depends what the Don't Know/Won't Say comments actually mean.

    But fifty something percent retention is grim.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,580
    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Tories still second on seats though.

    EC gives a hung parliament on the 1st new Yougov of this parliament with Labour on 287 MPs, the Tories on 128. Reform 106 and the LDs 77, SNP 16 and Greens 4


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=22&LAB=26&LIB=14&Reform=25&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,314
    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    I don’t think this will be the low-water mark for Labour.
    AI is not popular either

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1878849564528255000?t=EJNb_bJkoexYzezfSflw1g&s=19
    Most people's experience of it is shielding them from talking to an actual person in customer service, at a guess.
    In all of the A/B tests so conducted that I've seen AI outperforms human CS by quite some distance on NPS scoring. Faster/immediate response times, usually the AI can handle everything up to getting a refund or item exchange or change of appointment booking etc... and AI is better at troubleshooting too for smaller tech issues. What it actually does and the reason NPS scores go up so much when companies get AI agents is that the 90% of queries that don't need human interaction ("have you tried turning it off and on" or "is the monitor plugged in and is the switch turned on") don't clog up the helpline so the 10% who need actual help get through within minutes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,768
    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    I don’t think this will be the low-water mark for Labour.
    AI is not popular either

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1878849564528255000?t=EJNb_bJkoexYzezfSflw1g&s=19
    Most people's experience of it is shielding them from talking to an actual person in customer service, at a guess.
    And not usually in a useful way either. Which may well change (I expect it to), but for now its purpose for the average person is not immediately obvious, especially as techbros are prone to hyperbolistic claims about it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,470
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Nice to see YouGov back in the fray. Another nasty headache for Kemi there, and little comfort for Labour.
    Baxter gives Lib-Lab pact on that I think.

    I would take that if I was Starmer at the moment!! LOL
    The LDs would play hardball though and demand Starmer restores agricultural property relief in full, restores winter fuel allowance for pensioners and takes the UK closer to the EEA single market too and maybe even with a PR referendum as well
    Given the type of election result that gave a Labour LD coalition - I would have thought the conditions would be PR without a referendum and Labour would agree...
    Well certainly HY's list seems the wrong way around. Liberals are gonna want PR before worrying about the farmers (for a start this is all four or more years away - by then we will have found that most family farms aren't hit and those that might be have enabled some plans to deal with it).

  • eekeek Posts: 28,774

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Nice to see YouGov back in the fray. Another nasty headache for Kemi there, and little comfort for Labour.
    It's a lot worse than little comfort most of those new Reform voters are from the GE Labour vote....
    Messier than that. From the linked article;

    Labour has retained 54% of their vote at the general election - 7% have gone to the Lib Dems, 6% to the Green Party, 5% to Reform UK, 4% to the Tories - while 23% of those polled did not say, did not know or would not vote.

    It all depends what the Don't Know/Won't Say comments actually mean.

    But fifty something percent retention is grim.
    But hardly surprising given the lack of things Labour has achieved in the past 6 months...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,707
    Barchart via LeftieStats


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,580
    edited January 13

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Nice to see YouGov back in the fray. Another nasty headache for Kemi there, and little comfort for Labour.
    Baxter gives Lib-Lab pact on that I think.

    I would take that if I was Starmer at the moment!! LOL
    The LDs would play hardball though and demand Starmer restores agricultural property relief in full, restores winter fuel allowance for pensioners and takes the UK closer to the EEA single market too and maybe even with a PR referendum as well
    Given the type of election result that gave a Labour LD coalition - I would have thought the conditions would be PR without a referendum and Labour would agree...
    Well certainly HY's list seems the wrong way around. Liberals are gonna want PR before worrying about the farmers (for a start this is all four or more years away - by then we will have found that most family farms aren't hit and those that might be have enabled some plans to deal with it).

    Half LD seats are rural or semi rural, their MPs would also be demanding Davey tells Sir Keir to scrap the tractor tax or no deal. PR is now less important to the LDs though, given in 2024 their number of MPs under FPTP roughly matched their voteshare anyway.

    FPTP ironically now hits Reform the worst, if we had PR Reform would have won around 90 MPs last July instead of just 5
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,241
    If Starmer isn't seen to be backing his Chancellor, then why should Mr. Market?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,810
    viewcode said:

    Barchart via LeftieStats


    Maybe Badenoch needs to sign up for I'm A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here to improve her profile.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,223
    viewcode said:

    Barchart via LeftieStats


    Badenoch really needs to start converting those "don't know"s. Even a 15:15 split leaving 5 DK is only 35:60, consistent with the other two major players but likely to leave a big mess of an election campaign.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,731
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Nice to see YouGov back in the fray. Another nasty headache for Kemi there, and little comfort for Labour.
    Baxter gives Lib-Lab pact on that I think.

    I would take that if I was Starmer at the moment!! LOL
    The LDs would play hardball though and demand Starmer restores agricultural property relief in full, restores winter fuel allowance for pensioners and takes the UK closer to the EEA single market too and maybe even with a PR referendum as well
    Given the type of election result that gave a Labour LD coalition - I would have thought the conditions would be PR without a referendum and Labour would agree...
    Well certainly HY's list seems the wrong way around. Liberals are gonna want PR before worrying about the farmers (for a start this is all four or more years away - by then we will have found that most family farms aren't hit and those that might be have enabled some plans to deal with it).

    Half LD seats are rural or semi rural, their MPs would also be demanding Davey tells Sir Keir to scrap the tractor tax or no deal. PR is now less important to the LDs though, given in 2024 their number of MPs under FPTP roughly matched their voteshare anyway.

    FPTP ironically now hits Reform the worst, if we had PR Reform would have won around 90 MPs last July instead of just 5
    LDs will still want PR. It's a matter of good governance, not party advantage.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,774
    MaxPB said:

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    I don’t think this will be the low-water mark for Labour.
    AI is not popular either

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1878849564528255000?t=EJNb_bJkoexYzezfSflw1g&s=19
    Most people's experience of it is shielding them from talking to an actual person in customer service, at a guess.
    In all of the A/B tests so conducted that I've seen AI outperforms human CS by quite some distance on NPS scoring. Faster/immediate response times, usually the AI can handle everything up to getting a refund or item exchange or change of appointment booking etc... and AI is better at troubleshooting too for smaller tech issues. What it actually does and the reason NPS scores go up so much when companies get AI agents is that the 90% of queries that don't need human interaction ("have you tried turning it off and on" or "is the monitor plugged in and is the switch turned on") don't clog up the helpline so the 10% who need actual help get through within minutes.
    Or in the case of 1 example last year 5 minute+ wait times to get an account balance... problem is you need to verify the customer before providing the balance and guess what the AI struggled to do...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,580

    viewcode said:

    Barchart via LeftieStats


    Maybe Badenoch needs to sign up for I'm A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here to improve her profile.
    She has a better net approval rating than Starmer and Farage though, even if largely invisible to most voters
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,935
    edited January 13
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Barchart via LeftieStats


    Maybe Badenoch needs to sign up for I'm A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here to improve her profile.
    She has a better net approval rating than Starmer and Farage though, even if largely invisible to most voters
    But nowhere near Davey's, Denyer's and Ramsay's.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,774
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Barchart via LeftieStats


    Maybe Badenoch needs to sign up for I'm A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here to improve her profile.
    She has a better net approval rating than Starmer and Farage though, even if largely invisible to most voters
    Many people that don't know a politician give them the benefit of the doubt up to the point they attach the name to the face..

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,059
    edited January 13
    Awful front pages for tomorrow for Labour

    I haven't seen anything as bad as these since Truss
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,773

    Awful front pages for tomorrow for Labour

    I haven't seen anything as bad as these since Truss

    Cos of the lettuce?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,580
    edited January 13

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Barchart via LeftieStats


    Maybe Badenoch needs to sign up for I'm A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here to improve her profile.
    She has a better net approval rating than Starmer and Farage though, even if largely invisible to most voters
    But nowhere near Davey's, Denyer's and Ramsay's.
    She is still forecast more seats than all 3 though and indeed still more seats than Farage too on tonight's Yougov and to be the only Opposition Leader of a party which has just lost power to deprive the government of their majority at the next general election since Wilson in Feb 1974 (even if unlike Wilson she still doesn't get the most seats needed to become PM)
  • Awful front pages for tomorrow for Labour

    I haven't seen anything as bad as these since Truss

    Cos of the lettuce?
    Virtually all leading on Starmer doubt over Reeves
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,935

    Awful front pages for tomorrow for Labour

    I haven't seen anything as bad as these since Truss

    You exaggerate. The front pages are not of one view, for starters. The FT, Times and Metro all have different stories and don't lead on Reeves. The Telegraph predicts the imminent collapse of the Labour govt every day.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,999

    Awful front pages for tomorrow for Labour

    I haven't seen anything as bad as these since Truss

    Cos of the lettuce?
    Tip of the iceberg.
    Should have voted romaine..
  • Awful front pages for tomorrow for Labour

    I haven't seen anything as bad as these since Truss

    You exaggerate. The front pages are not of one view, for starters. The FT, Times and Metro all have different stories and don't lead on Reeves. The Telegraph predicts the imminent collapse of the Labour govt every day.
    You are so loyal but listen to Sky's paper review

    https://news.sky.com/story/sundays-national-newspaper-front-pages-12427754?postid=8921054#liveblog-body
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,470

    Awful front pages for tomorrow for Labour

    I haven't seen anything as bad as these since Truss

    Cos of the lettuce?
    Virtually all leading on Starmer doubt over Reeves
    I only count 2 (3 if City AM). 2 1/2 if you include Guardian on ruthless cuts.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,333

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.

    Rachel "Liz Truss" Reeves.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,935

    Awful front pages for tomorrow for Labour

    I haven't seen anything as bad as these since Truss

    Cos of the lettuce?
    Virtually all leading on Starmer doubt over Reeves
    Simply not true.

    i leads on benefits cuts, so tangentially related to the story, but not on Starmer doubts.

    Express leads on inheritance tax for agricultural land.

    Star and Telegraph fit your description. Mail talks about Reeves, but focuses on Tory attacks, not Starmer doubts. The Guardian covers the story, but has Starmer backing Reeves.

    The main Times story is on a threat to free speech, although they have a smaller front page story about PM and Reeves.

    Metro and FT have entirely different stories.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,223

    Awful front pages for tomorrow for Labour

    I haven't seen anything as bad as these since Truss

    Cos of the lettuce?
    Tip of the iceberg.
    Should have voted romaine..
    Leaf it out...
  • Awful front pages for tomorrow for Labour

    I haven't seen anything as bad as these since Truss

    Cos of the lettuce?
    Virtually all leading on Starmer doubt over Reeves
    I only count 2 (3 if City AM). 2 1/2 if you include Guardian on ruthless cuts.
    6 refer to Reeves and the others either Farmers IHT or cuts to public spending

    The review on Sky was uncompromising
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,314

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.

    It's only been six months. These next 4 years are going to be very long for Labour. A hostile US president, no help coming from Europe, economy in the toilet and no clue how to get it moving again, unions all realising they've got a patsy in charge so will strike at the drop of a hat to get bumper pay rises.

    As I've been saying for a while now, I think this ends in an IMF bailout to prevent Britain from defaulting on external debt. Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,605
    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,343

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,810
    MAGA boots on the ground in Greenland are already campaigning for Trump’s purchase:

    https://x.com/nickshirleyy/status/1878912478014476605
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,554
    It's undoubtedly a terrible YouGov poll for Labour.
    However, it remains the case that Labour still leads (marginally), and is therefore very slightly less unpopular than any other party.
    Given the commentary on here and in the media, Starmer won't be too unhappy with that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,580
    edited January 13

    MAGA boots on the ground in Greenland are already campaigning for Trump’s purchase:

    https://x.com/nickshirleyy/status/1878912478014476605

    Seems a bit anti Danish there 'buy Greenland..we don't like Danish people'
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    40,000 people in Greenland cannot hope to ensure their own defence, and I believe they effectively survive on Danish subsidy.

    So they should choose whether they prefer Danish or US “control”.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    The slavering desire for the country’s active humiliation is a bit of a red flag.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,207

    MAGA boots on the ground in Greenland are already campaigning for Trump’s purchase:

    https://x.com/nickshirleyy/status/1878912478014476605

    The pictures of Trump's son (son-in-law?) trying to hand out crumpled MAGA hats there, on the other hand, were cringey.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,470

    It's undoubtedly a terrible YouGov poll for Labour.
    However, it remains the case that Labour still leads (marginally), and is therefore very slightly less unpopular than any other party.
    Given the commentary on here and in the media, Starmer won't be too unhappy with that.

    Mid terms blues after six months.

    And the case remains whilst Farage and Kemi won't/can't make an electoral pact then Starmer is in with a decent shout.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
    We aren't going to the IMF.

    The hyperbole from the right wing media is off the scale ridiculous.

    Everyone calm down.
    Gotta love the rapid rewriting of history to claim everything was tickedy-boo under the Tories.

    Having said that, while the tone from the usual suspects is totally hysterical it is ALSO true that Labour, Starmer and Reeves have been beyond disappointing, and that they have lost the confidence of business.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,470

    Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧

    @TiceRichard
    Reform within touching distance of topping national poll

    We are in 'new era' for British politics

    Only ⁦
    @reformparty_uk
    ⁩ can save Britain from Labour & Tory uniparty failures

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1878934641924604168
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,143
    edited January 13

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Nice to see YouGov back in the fray. Another nasty headache for Kemi there, and little comfort for Labour.
    It's a lot worse than little comfort most of those new Reform voters are from the GE Labour vote....
    Messier than that. From the linked article;

    Labour has retained 54% of their vote at the general election - 7% have gone to the Lib Dems, 6% to the Green Party, 5% to Reform UK, 4% to the Tories - while 23% of those polled did not say, did not know or would not vote.

    It all depends what the Don't Know/Won't Say comments actually mean.

    But fifty something percent retention is grim.
    Reform picking up significantly more votes from the Conservatives than Labour (!), plus lots of differential "turnout". How exciting - it's starting to feel a bit like Scottish politics. Badenoch = Murphy?

    The other thing to note is just how unpopular Elon Musk is (particularly with older people, according to a pre-Christmas poll). A useful reminder that PB BTL != the UK public. The rest of the polling is also really interesting for reasons that can't be discussed here.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,343

    It's undoubtedly a terrible YouGov poll for Labour.
    However, it remains the case that Labour still leads (marginally), and is therefore very slightly less unpopular than any other party.
    Given the commentary on here and in the media, Starmer won't be too unhappy with that.

    Mid terms blues after six months.

    And the case remains whilst Farage and Kemi won't/can't make an electoral pact then Starmer is in with a decent shout.
    Not a guarantee an electoral pact would work.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotherham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    Regardless, Labour really do need to be getting a bigger vote share than this if they want to remain in government.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,707

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    The slavering desire for the country’s active humiliation is a bit of a red flag.
    PB has two characteristics that skew things
    * "Citizens of nowhere" who live outside Britain but are still interested in the UK
    * "technofeudalists" who live inside Britain but identify with a transnational tribe with leaders outside the UK

    Both sets pursue policies and ambitions that may not be in the best interests of the UK and (in the case of Trump/Putin/Musk/Xi supporters) may actually be against it.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,095
    edited January 13
    In Val McDermid's latest thriller, Nicola Sturgeon - drowning her sorrows on blended whisky - falls asleep and wakes up twenty years later to find Scotland independent but unhappy.

    "Camper Van Winkle", available now in all good book stores.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,470

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
    We aren't going to the IMF.

    The hyperbole from the right wing media is off the scale ridiculous.

    Everyone calm down.
    Gotta love the rapid rewriting of history to claim everything was tickedy-boo under the Tories.

    Having said that, while the tone from the usual suspects is totally hysterical it is ALSO true that Labour, Starmer and Reeves have been beyond disappointing, and that they have lost the confidence of business.
    Indeed.

    It has been a fucking shite start* but it is not yet a case of the fat lady gargling her vocals.

    * Everyone presumably has their item of highest shite - mine is putting social care reform back another decade while a commission investigates evidence that social care is shite.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,059
    edited January 13

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
    We aren't going to the IMF.

    The hyperbole from the right wing media is off the scale ridiculous.

    Everyone calm down.
    It depends on whether Reeves can calm the market, but also it is complicated for her due to Trump's impending Presidency and the reaction of the markets generally

    Inflation figures from both sides of the Atlantic on Wednesday is a big moment in this crisis, and could either spook or calm the markets

    As for Reeves she is facing the real issue of severe spending cuts which will not fit well in her party, but as both Starmer and Reeves have ruled out more tax rises ( borrowing is out of the question) she has no choice but to render the scythe

    I hope the IMF are not called in and it is only Reeves action or otherwise that will avoid it

    Doing nothing is not an option now
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,207


    Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧

    @TiceRichard
    Reform within touching distance of topping national poll

    We are in 'new era' for British politics

    Only ⁦
    @reformparty_uk
    ⁩ can save Britain from Labour & Tory uniparty failures

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1878934641924604168

    I had to look up 'uniparty'. I admit at some stages in politics I've somewhat blurred the lines between Labour->SDP->LibDem->Tories<->Greens and even The Referendum Party or The Countryside Alliance. Hell, throw in the Natural Law Party.

    But I'm not sure I'd call the current Tory vs. Labour exactly of 'one mind'. I'm not sure how the populists ....

    I was about to type something then realised they don't care one way or another what they spout.
  • It's undoubtedly a terrible YouGov poll for Labour.
    However, it remains the case that Labour still leads (marginally), and is therefore very slightly less unpopular than any other party.
    Given the commentary on here and in the media, Starmer won't be too unhappy with that.

    Mid terms blues after six months.

    And the case remains whilst Farage and Kemi won't/can't make an electoral pact then Starmer is in with a decent shout.
    I have been wondering about possible Reform Conservative pact and not sure but I wouldn't rule it out altogether
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 241
    edited January 13

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    ·
    1h
    Yield on UK 10-year bonds getting v close to 4.9% while sterling now close to $1.21. Watch this space!

    Important inflation figures from both sides of the Atlantic on Wednesday will be key
    Should the UK want inflation to be higher or lower......Normally lower but maybe higher inflation would help us right now?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    The slavering desire for the country’s active humiliation is a bit of a red flag.
    PB has two characteristics that skew things
    * "Citizens of nowhere" who live outside Britain but are still interested in the UK
    * "technofeudalists" who live inside Britain but identify with a transnational tribe with leaders outside the UK

    Both sets pursue policies and ambitions that may not be in the best interests of the UK and (in the case of Trump/Putin/Musk/Xi supporters) may actually be against it.
    Also the likes of CR, Leon, and Max who all voted Brexit and express desire to just leave the UK every five minutes.
  • MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
    We aren't going to the IMF.

    The hyperbole from the right wing media is off the scale ridiculous.

    Everyone calm down.
    Gotta love the rapid rewriting of history to claim everything was tickedy-boo under the Tories.

    Having said that, while the tone from the usual suspects is totally hysterical it is ALSO true that Labour, Starmer and Reeves have been beyond disappointing, and that they have lost the confidence of business.
    Indeed.

    It has been a fucking shite start* but it is not yet a case of the fat lady gargling her vocals.

    * Everyone presumably has their item of highest shite - mine is putting social care reform back another decade while a commission investigates evidence that social care is shite.

    The social care delay to 2028 is simply cowardice, when everyone knows it is central to solving the NHS crisis and a reforming
    government with a landslide could make a positive decision to address it
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,133
    Interesting video.

    "2001: A Space Odyssey - How Kubrick fooled us all
    Collative Learning"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxiB3qtMRHc
  • Nunu3 said:

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    ·
    1h
    Yield on UK 10-year bonds getting v close to 4.9% while sterling now close to $1.21. Watch this space!

    Important inflation figures from both sides of the Atlantic on Wednesday will be key
    Should the UK want inflation to be higher or lower......Normally lower but maybe higher inflation would help us right now?
    Higher inflation means higher interest rates for longer and is not good news
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,143

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
    We aren't going to the IMF.

    The hyperbole from the right wing media is off the scale ridiculous.

    Everyone calm down.
    Gotta love the rapid rewriting of history to claim everything was tickedy-boo under the Tories.

    Having said that, while the tone from the usual suspects is totally hysterical it is ALSO true that Labour, Starmer and Reeves have been beyond disappointing, and that they have lost the confidence of business.
    Indeed.

    It has been a fucking shite start* but it is not yet a case of the fat lady gargling her vocals.

    * Everyone presumably has their item of highest shite - mine is putting social care reform back another decade while a commission investigates evidence that social care is shite.

    The social care delay to 2028 is simply cowardice, when everyone knows it is central to solving the NHS crisis and a reforming
    government with a landslide could make a positive decision to address it
    If only Sunak had deployed that kind of bravery on social care rather than cancelling HS2.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,774

    It's undoubtedly a terrible YouGov poll for Labour.
    However, it remains the case that Labour still leads (marginally), and is therefore very slightly less unpopular than any other party.
    Given the commentary on here and in the media, Starmer won't be too unhappy with that.

    Bad poll for Labour. Existential for the Tories.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,908
    ydoethur said:

    In other extraordinary events in Scottish politics -

    Glen Sannox has finally entered service.

    New SCon leader? :wink:
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,605

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
    We aren't going to the IMF.

    The hyperbole from the right wing media is off the scale ridiculous.

    Everyone calm down.
    Gotta love the rapid rewriting of history to claim everything was tickedy-boo under the Tories.

    Having said that, while the tone from the usual suspects is totally hysterical it is ALSO true that Labour, Starmer and Reeves have been beyond disappointing, and that they have lost the confidence of business.
    Indeed.

    It has been a fucking shite start* but it is not yet a case of the fat lady gargling her vocals.

    * Everyone presumably has their item of highest shite - mine is putting social care reform back another decade while a commission investigates evidence that social care is shite.

    The social care delay to 2028 is simply cowardice, when everyone knows it is central to solving the NHS crisis and a reforming
    government with a landslide could make a positive decision to address it
    You would simply criticise any attempt to fund it
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,707
    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    In other extraordinary events in Scottish politics -

    Glen Sannox has finally entered service.

    New SCon leader? :wink:
    I thought it was a whisky. Turns out it's a ship.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,059
    edited January 13

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
    We aren't going to the IMF.

    The hyperbole from the right wing media is off the scale ridiculous.

    Everyone calm down.
    Gotta love the rapid rewriting of history to claim everything was tickedy-boo under the Tories.

    Having said that, while the tone from the usual suspects is totally hysterical it is ALSO true that Labour, Starmer and Reeves have been beyond disappointing, and that they have lost the confidence of business.
    Indeed.

    It has been a fucking shite start* but it is not yet a case of the fat lady gargling her vocals.

    * Everyone presumably has their item of highest shite - mine is putting social care reform back another decade while a commission investigates evidence that social care is shite.

    The social care delay to 2028 is simply cowardice, when everyone knows it is central to solving the NHS crisis and a reforming
    government with a landslide could make a positive decision to address it
    You would simply criticise any attempt to fund it
    I would not criticise a funding scheme for what is probably the most important issue today

    I would add at the present time it could cost my wife and I over £200,000 as was the case of my son in laws parents
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,810
    edited January 13
    MJW said:

    It's undoubtedly a terrible YouGov poll for Labour.
    However, it remains the case that Labour still leads (marginally), and is therefore very slightly less unpopular than any other party.
    Given the commentary on here and in the media, Starmer won't be too unhappy with that.

    Bad poll for Labour. Existential for the Tories.
    This assumption is based on the idea that the main electoral divide is an ideological battle between a left-wing party and a right-wing party, and the fight is currently between Reform and the Tories to be the right-wing standard-bearer, but this is the wrong frame of reference.

    Think instead in terms of class politics. For a century, Labour were the party of the working class but this is now being challenged by Reform. Reform are not an existential threat to the Tories but they are to Labour.

    If Labour are forced into making spending cuts they'll also alienate their client vote of public sector workers so their vote has a very low floor.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518

    MJW said:

    It's undoubtedly a terrible YouGov poll for Labour.
    However, it remains the case that Labour still leads (marginally), and is therefore very slightly less unpopular than any other party.
    Given the commentary on here and in the media, Starmer won't be too unhappy with that.

    Bad poll for Labour. Existential for the Tories.
    This assumption is based on the idea that the main electoral divide is an ideological battle between a left-wing party and a right-wing party, and the fight is currently between Reform and the Tories to be the right-wing standard-bearer, but this is the wrong frame of reference.

    Think instead in terms of class politics. For a century, Labour were the party of the working class but this is now being challenged by Reform. Reform are not an existential threat to the Tories but they are to Labour.

    If Labour are forced into making spending cuts they'll also alienate their client vote of public sector workers so their vote has a very low floor.
    Always suspected you were a Marxist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,580

    MJW said:

    It's undoubtedly a terrible YouGov poll for Labour.
    However, it remains the case that Labour still leads (marginally), and is therefore very slightly less unpopular than any other party.
    Given the commentary on here and in the media, Starmer won't be too unhappy with that.

    Bad poll for Labour. Existential for the Tories.
    This assumption is based on the idea that the main electoral divide is an ideological battle between a left-wing party and a right-wing party, and the fight is currently between Reform and the Tories to be the right-wing standard-bearer, but this is the wrong frame of reference.

    Think instead in terms of class politics. For a century, Labour were the party of the working class but this is now being challenged by Reform. Reform are not an existential threat to the Tories but they are to Labour.

    If Labour are forced into making spending cuts they'll also alienate their client vote of public sector workers so their vote has a very low floor.
    True but Labour won more ABC1 middle class voters than C2DE working class voters at the 2024 GE, as indeed did the Tories and LDs.

    Only Reform won more C2DE voters than ABC1 voters so on that basis Reform have already replaced Labour as the party of the working class. Labour is now the party of the public sector and students though yes as you say on a forced choice Reeves would have to raise taxes further on higher earners and the wealthy rather than cut public spending as that would see leakage of their core vote to the Greens
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,580
    edited January 14
    Andy_JS said:
    Tories in 2nd place on seats still with all of them though except FindOutNow and still in 2nd place on votes with the rest
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,133
    "Ministers mull allowing private firms to make profit from NHS data in AI push
    Anonymised data could help develop treatments, drugs and diagnostic tools but potential misuse worries experts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/13/ministers-mull-allowing-private-firms-to-make-profit-from-nhs-data-in-ai-push
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,707
    Andy_JS said:

    "Ministers mull allowing private firms to make profit from NHS data in AI push
    Anonymised data could help develop treatments, drugs and diagnostic tools but potential misuse worries experts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/13/ministers-mull-allowing-private-firms-to-make-profit-from-nhs-data-in-ai-push

    You don't monetise it, you issue it for free. Government is not private business and should not make a profit. Instead you release the resources to everybody for free and the companies make money from it. We are enshittifying the entire bloody state!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,133
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Ministers mull allowing private firms to make profit from NHS data in AI push
    Anonymised data could help develop treatments, drugs and diagnostic tools but potential misuse worries experts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/13/ministers-mull-allowing-private-firms-to-make-profit-from-nhs-data-in-ai-push

    You don't monetise it, you issue it for free. Government is not private business and should not make a profit. Instead you release the resources to everybody for free and the companies make money from it. We are enshittifying the entire bloody state!
    I was thinking along the same lines.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,054
    Afternoon all from a sunny and warm Aotearoa :)

    I see the YouGov poll has triggered some discussions which starts from all the usual invalid assumptions. Reform is described as a “right wing” party. Now, first, that’s not correct and second, those still throwing round “left wing” and “right wing” are probably just using them as terms of abuse as they have long ceased to have any practical political definition.

    Reform could be described as “populist” but for me that’s shorthand for being whatever anyone wants them to be - indeed there are parallels with the Alliance in the 1980s whose sole raison d’etre was to be neither Conservative nor Labour.

    Yes there will be those who can define Reformism but I’m not one of them and at the moment they are drawing in the disillusioned but once they are forced to come out with some policies they will be subject to the same scrutiny and will, I suspect, come up short.

    To be fair, no one has any quick and easy solution to the economic malaise and if they had, everyone would be implementing it. The solutions probably aren’t quick or easy and the problem with incoming Governments having taken over from unpopular predecessors is they promise change and have to deliver and given anger and impatience said delivery has to be quick.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,054
    I see we also have the tired old schtick of Labour being “the party of the public sector”. Just over six million work in the public sector and it’s my experience there is as much diversity of opinion in local Government as there is elsewhere.

    Pigeon holing parties by “class” is just lazy and silly analysis just as classifying voters by how they voted in a referendum eight and a half years ago,

    The truth is much more nuanced - the idea of confirmed voter bases was tested to destruction last July.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,489
    Blue Origin’s New Glenn test launch scrubbed again, at least this time they didn’t keep us all waiting for three hours.

    https://x.com/blueorigin/status/1878987377705881992

    Next NG launch attempt now on Thursday morning. Starship still planning to try on Wednesday.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 101

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
    We aren't going to the IMF.

    The hyperbole from the right wing media is off the scale ridiculous.

    Everyone calm down.
    Gotta love the rapid rewriting of history to claim everything was tickedy-boo under the Tories.

    Having said that, while the tone from the usual suspects is totally hysterical it is ALSO true that Labour, Starmer and Reeves have been beyond disappointing, and that they have lost the confidence of business.
    Indeed.

    It has been a fucking shite start* but it is not yet a case of the fat lady gargling her vocals.

    * Everyone presumably has their item of highest shite - mine is putting social care reform back another decade while a commission investigates evidence that social care is shite.

    The social care delay to 2028 is simply cowardice, when everyone knows it is central to solving the NHS crisis and a reforming
    government with a landslide could make a positive decision to address it
    You would simply criticise any attempt to fund it
    I would not criticise a funding scheme for what is probably the most important issue today

    I would add at the present time it could cost my wife and I over £200,000 as was the case of my son in laws parents
    Always find this an interesting conundrum. Lots of ads this time of year about 'protecting' your home from the taxman so it can be handed down. The implication being that they social care would be funded by others via the local council. It's the same argument seen for those wanting to jump the housing queue by being made deliberately homeless.

    Hint: Do not leave your fate in the hands of your local authority whether it be housing or social care. The results are not pretty. Plan and finance your own care.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 101
    edited January 14
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Ministers mull allowing private firms to make profit from NHS data in AI push
    Anonymised data could help develop treatments, drugs and diagnostic tools but potential misuse worries experts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/13/ministers-mull-allowing-private-firms-to-make-profit-from-nhs-data-in-ai-push

    You don't monetise it, you issue it for free. Government is not private business and should not make a profit. Instead you release the resources to everybody for free and the companies make money from it. We are enshittifying the entire bloody state!
    A good example of this is private parking tickets. On request the DVLA will dox you to the parking companies for £2.50 which is the cost of the search of the DVLA database. You are compelled to give your details to the DVLA which are then passed on. Some 6+mn addresses are given out so that between £100-£300 'charges' can be chased. It's almost a £1bn p.a. industry now based on compulsory registration (and lax self-regulation).
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,054

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
    We aren't going to the IMF.

    The hyperbole from the right wing media is off the scale ridiculous.

    Everyone calm down.
    Gotta love the rapid rewriting of history to claim everything was tickedy-boo under the Tories.

    Having said that, while the tone from the usual suspects is totally hysterical it is ALSO true that Labour, Starmer and Reeves have been beyond disappointing, and that they have lost the confidence of business.
    Indeed.

    It has been a fucking shite start* but it is not yet a case of the fat lady gargling her vocals.

    * Everyone presumably has their item of highest shite - mine is putting social care reform back another decade while a commission investigates evidence that social care is shite.

    The social care delay to 2028 is simply cowardice, when everyone knows it is central to solving the NHS crisis and a reforming
    government with a landslide could make a positive decision to address it
    You would simply criticise any attempt to fund it
    I would not criticise a funding scheme for what is probably the most important issue today

    I would add at the present time it could cost my wife and I over £200,000 as was the case of my son in laws parents
    Yes it’s complex and it’s as much about the funding of local Government than the provision of care. It’s also about the 1.6 million staff who are employed in the adult social care field and not all of them are at the “care” end.

    The function involves deputyship, assessment and a number of very sensitive services including looking after the interests of clients with dementia who have no one else.

    The problem is “adult social care” is mainly thought of in terms of residential care homes but a lot of care is provided via domiciliary and day care services and these also need adequate resourcing. Indeed, the majority needing care get that at home with or without family support.

    The assessment of packages of care is and can be complex. Delivering the appropriate level of care is vital and the whole area impinges on other areas of activity - should we, for example, be going more down the NZ route of retirement villages with on-site care and amenities? When you have 20% of the population post-retirement, that impacts local and regional economies and requirements of which care is one part.

    Reviewing social care is too little - we should be looking at some fundamental questions about what we should expect when we grow old - a Contract With Age if you like.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,489
    Awesome news for Ukraine, it now looks like China and India are refusing shipments of dodgy Russian and Iranian oil, following US sanctions against the “shadow fleet” of old, unregulated, and mostly unseaworthy boats used to trade O&G from sanctioned countries.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1878704867663102390

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-shandong-port-group-blacklists-us-sanctioned-oil-vessels-say-traders-2025-01-07/

    This will do more than almost anything else to hasten the economic collapse in Russia, following yesterday’s announcement that Russian companies are now loaded with unsustainable debts and the O&G sector is making thousands of redundancies. Gazprom is cutting its head office by 40%, nearly 2k job losses.
    https://x.com/carlbildt/status/1878833742849941713
    https://x.com/jakluge/status/1878789709302034445
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,280
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    On topic, yes. Obviously, in fact, given that RefUK+Grn are currently 32%.

    I'm excluding the Lib Dems from that group as they're both of fairly recent vintage as a governing party and also mainstream establishment. However, it's telling that the highest Con+Lab share this year in any poll is just 53%. As TSE noted in a thread the other day, there's a decent chance the next election ends up with no party near a majority and 4-6 blocks of quite sizeable numbers.

    The fact that the LDs have barely shifted since the election, and any movement has actually been downwards is a very compelling fact about how they are seen by the electorate when they have started to despise both Lab and Con. The seeds of an epoch making change are around.

    The one thing Greens and Reform have in common is their populism.
    Well, the strength of the LDs will be tested in May, if the Tory county councils are brave enough to hold elections.
    Nearly half have already cancelled them, with Mayoral elections not likely until 2026 and the first unitary elections until 2027
    Strictly, asked to cancel them. Aren’t they all waiting to hear back from our Ange?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,489
    edited January 14
    Battlebus said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Ministers mull allowing private firms to make profit from NHS data in AI push
    Anonymised data could help develop treatments, drugs and diagnostic tools but potential misuse worries experts"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/13/ministers-mull-allowing-private-firms-to-make-profit-from-nhs-data-in-ai-push

    You don't monetise it, you issue it for free. Government is not private business and should not make a profit. Instead you release the resources to everybody for free and the companies make money from it. We are enshittifying the entire bloody state!
    A good example of this is private parking tickets. On request the DVLA will dox you to the parking companies for £2.50 which is the cost of the search of the DVLA database. You are compelled to give your details to the DVLA which are then passed on. Some 6+mn addresses are given out so that between £100-£300 'charges' can be chased. It's almost a £1bn p.a. industry now based on compulsory registration (and lax self-regulation).
    Sale of DVLA data to aggressive parking companies is one of those things that should be a scandal but isn’t. DVLA should be be charging the companies to pass on letters, not to give your data.

    The origin of this was the legislation that shut down the private clamping industry, so I can see why it was though to be better at the time, but times move on. This was also before private ANPR was widespread, which has automated the process from the parking company’s side.

    The Information Commissioner should be much better at taking action against companies who misbehave in this industry.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,771
    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    viewcode said:

    https://x.com/javierblas/status/1878830699354165329

    After meeting President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada should prepare for 25% tariffs starting on Jan 20 on all US-bound products, ***including on crude oil***.

    "I'm not expecting any exemptions," she told reporters

    Whilst PB witters on about the Chancellor, Trump declares economic war on the West.
    You are right to point out that Trump is by far the biggest threat to the economy, but that's why a competent Chancellor, and PM, with a deliverable plan matters. Labour should have been preparing us for Trump 2.0 since the general election. Does anyone think that the UK has been Trump-proofed?
    Trump is focused on China, the EU, Canada and Mexico first for his tariffs.

    One benefit of Brexit is we are at the back of his tariffs queue
    The reason is that America has a trade surplus with Britain.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,907
    Ouch.

    Cost to clean up toxic PFAS pollution could top £1.6tn in UK and Europe
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/14/cost-clean-up-toxic-pfas-pollution-forever-chemicals

    They will remain in our bodies, of course.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,489

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    viewcode said:

    https://x.com/javierblas/status/1878830699354165329

    After meeting President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada should prepare for 25% tariffs starting on Jan 20 on all US-bound products, ***including on crude oil***.

    "I'm not expecting any exemptions," she told reporters

    Whilst PB witters on about the Chancellor, Trump declares economic war on the West.
    You are right to point out that Trump is by far the biggest threat to the economy, but that's why a competent Chancellor, and PM, with a deliverable plan matters. Labour should have been preparing us for Trump 2.0 since the general election. Does anyone think that the UK has been Trump-proofed?
    Trump is focused on China, the EU, Canada and Mexico first for his tariffs.

    One benefit of Brexit is we are at the back of his tariffs queue
    The reason is that America has a trade surplus with Britain.
    UK-USA goods trade is beneficial to both sides, almost entirely consisting of goods only manufactured in one country or the other. Services trade is also high between the two.

    Fingers crossed that if Trump goes down the tariffs route, the UK is very much at the back of the queue.

    But yes, the UK government may not be fans of Mr Trump, but he’s about to be sworn in whether we like it or not, and the government needs to engage with his team to protect its own interests.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,907
    How Saudi Arabia became the world’s plastic cheerleader
    The rich oil state has built a team of silver-tongued U.N. negotiators with a simple mandate: keep plastic production growing.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/saudi-arabia-plastic-cheerleader-european-union-crude-oil-un-plastic-army-arab-gulf/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,771
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting video.

    "2001: A Space Odyssey - How Kubrick fooled us all
    Collative Learning"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxiB3qtMRHc

    AI subtitler meets the Scouse accent and loses: “evolution of man to becoming Garden”.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxiB3qtMRHc&t=177s
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,888

    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    viewcode said:

    https://x.com/javierblas/status/1878830699354165329

    After meeting President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada should prepare for 25% tariffs starting on Jan 20 on all US-bound products, ***including on crude oil***.

    "I'm not expecting any exemptions," she told reporters

    Whilst PB witters on about the Chancellor, Trump declares economic war on the West.
    ... and on his own consumers. And many American business that depend on imports from Canada.

    What an embarassing, dangerous moron. Makes Reeves look almost competent. Almost.
    I find it impossible to be objective about the man, he is so odious in personality, manner, and even his smug grin just infuriates me. So I find it hard to indulge in any analysis of him.
    Yet millions seem to worship him.

    I guess it was the same with Hitler. Those who did not fall under the spell could not understand those who did.

    Indeed, probabaly the same for all these cult figures through the ages.
    I'm currently reading Iain Dale's new book, 'The Dictators'. So far it's been very interesting, especially with the characters I have not, or only barely, heard of before.

    But some of the things said in the book seem very pertinent to contemporary western politics. It might even be worth a threader or two...
    This loony cones to mind - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Solano_López

    "The normal estimate is that of a Paraguayan population of somewhere between 450,000 and 900,000, only 220,000 survived the war, of whom only 28,000 were adult males."
    I've already read the section on his *weird* predecessor, who I'd never heard of before: Francia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/José_Gaspar_Rodríguez_de_Francia
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,671

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
    We aren't going to the IMF.

    The hyperbole from the right wing media is off the scale ridiculous.

    Everyone calm down.
    Gotta love the rapid rewriting of history to claim everything was tickedy-boo under the Tories.

    Having said that, while the tone from the usual suspects is totally hysterical it is ALSO true that Labour, Starmer and Reeves have been beyond disappointing, and that they have lost the confidence of business.
    Indeed.

    It has been a fucking shite start* but it is not yet a case of the fat lady gargling her vocals.

    * Everyone presumably has their item of highest shite - mine is putting social care reform back another decade while a commission investigates evidence that social care is shite.

    This is pretty much how I feel. I have been critical,of labour but it is early days and they have time.

    I’d also add even when they do the right thing, WFA/WASPI, the whole presentation and management of it is abysmal.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,229
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    The return of the lettuce is a truly baleful omen.


    Labour are going to end up pushing through the most eye watering cuts to the state we've ever seen under the watchful eye of the IMF.
    Isn’t that what you want?
    We had 16% inflation the last time we went to the IMF... and the thing is we didn't even need to do it.
    We aren't going to the IMF.

    The hyperbole from the right wing media is off the scale ridiculous.

    Everyone calm down.
    Gotta love the rapid rewriting of history to claim everything was tickedy-boo under the Tories.

    Having said that, while the tone from the usual suspects is totally hysterical it is ALSO true that Labour, Starmer and Reeves have been beyond disappointing, and that they have lost the confidence of business.
    Indeed.

    It has been a fucking shite start* but it is not yet a case of the fat lady gargling her vocals.

    * Everyone presumably has their item of highest shite - mine is putting social care reform back another decade while a commission investigates evidence that social care is shite.

    This is pretty much how I feel. I have been critical,of labour but it is early days and they have time.

    I’d also add even when they do the right thing, WFA/WASPI, the whole presentation and management of it is abysmal.
    I doubt it. I think the die is cast.

    Their best hope is that Reform and the Tories take each other out, and they can rally their client base so they come though the middle again in 4 years.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,114

    40,000 people in Greenland cannot hope to ensure their own defence, and I believe they effectively survive on Danish subsidy.

    So they should choose whether they prefer Danish or US “control”.

    If they can't do independence surely the smart option is federation with Canada, a la Newfoundland?

    It's big, it's rich, it's next door, it's a stable democracy, it has an Inuit population of its own they could make common cause with.

    And it would really, really piss off Trump.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,114

    Awful front pages for tomorrow for Labour

    I haven't seen anything as bad as these since Truss

    Cos of the lettuce?
    Virtually all leading on Starmer doubt over Reeves
    Simply not true.

    i leads on benefits cuts, so tangentially related to the story, but not on Starmer doubts.

    Express leads on inheritance tax for agricultural land.

    Star and Telegraph fit your description. Mail talks about Reeves, but focuses on Tory attacks, not Starmer doubts. The Guardian covers the story, but has Starmer backing Reeves.

    The main Times story is on a threat to free speech, although they have a smaller front page story about PM and Reeves.

    Metro and FT have entirely different stories.
    That, to my mind, is the most ominous thing for Reeves. If he feels he has to say something as definite as that, rather than simply, 'she's staying,' it suggests privately he has doubts.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,312
    Good morning, everyone.

    Standing above the bickering, I've been testing my Yorkshire Pudding making skills this morning.

    (Aside: I see that some boobilicious "Sweet storyteller chasing sunsets and laughter"s have appeared on Bluesky. Currently at the bulging teeshirt avatar stage. Blockety-block.)

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,203
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    viewcode said:

    https://x.com/javierblas/status/1878830699354165329

    After meeting President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada should prepare for 25% tariffs starting on Jan 20 on all US-bound products, ***including on crude oil***.

    "I'm not expecting any exemptions," she told reporters

    Whilst PB witters on about the Chancellor, Trump declares economic war on the West.
    You are right to point out that Trump is by far the biggest threat to the economy, but that's why a competent Chancellor, and PM, with a deliverable plan matters. Labour should have been preparing us for Trump 2.0 since the general election. Does anyone think that the UK has been Trump-proofed?
    Would Rishi have really made us 'Trump-proof'?
    Rishi wouldn't have: (a) paid to surrender British territory to a foreign power in hock to China (b) not committed to Reparations (c) not asked the Unions to name their price and (d) not sent Tory party staffers to campaign for the Democrats.

    So, for political and economic resilience: yeah, it certainly would have helped.

    glw said:

    viewcode said:

    https://x.com/javierblas/status/1878830699354165329

    After meeting President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada should prepare for 25% tariffs starting on Jan 20 on all US-bound products, ***including on crude oil***.

    "I'm not expecting any exemptions," she told reporters

    Whilst PB witters on about the Chancellor, Trump declares economic war on the West.
    You are right to point out that Trump is by far the biggest threat to the economy, but that's why a competent Chancellor, and PM, with a deliverable plan matters. Labour should have been preparing us for Trump 2.0 since the general election. Does anyone think that the UK has been Trump-proofed?
    Would Rishi have really made us 'Trump-proof'?
    Rishi wouldn't have: (a) paid to surrender British territory to a foreign power in hock to China (b) not committed to Reparations (c) not asked the Unions to name their price and (d) not sent Tory party staffers to campaign for the Democrats.

    So, for political and economic resilience: yeah, it certainly would have helped.
    Sunak’s government was negotiating (a). Starmer has not committed the UK to reparations. The Labour government largely followed pay review boards’ advice rather than asking the unions to name their price.
    No it wasn't. The Truss government was, David Cameron closed down the negotiations on day one.
    Negotiations took place under Cleverly, he was Rishi Sunak's Foreign Secretary not just Truss's. If Cameron 'closed down the negotiations on day one' that proves they were happening under Sunak's Government.
    Cleverly was a hold over from the Truss government and they just kept those policies going, Dave actually saw the danger after being appointed and binned it. Though yes, on a technical level I'm sure some negotiation took place until Dave binned the idea. Now we just have to hope Trump bins the whole thing.
    The negotiations were not any sort of 'holdover', because they didn't commence until Truss had left office. Basically Cleverly was a wet lazy useless Foreign Secretary who was prepared to front any old shite, Sunak didn't have his eye on the ball and either approved it or was unaware, and Cameron spotted the looming disaster and booted it into the long grass.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,203
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SamCoatesSky
    NEW: YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll

    (Comparison with GE24)

    🔴Labour 26% (35%)
    🟤Reform UK 25% (15%)
    🔵Conservatives 22% (24%)
    🟡Lib Dem 14% (13%)
    🟢Greens 8% (7%)

    * Reform 1 point behind Labour
    * Tories in third place
    * Only 10% say this gvt “successful”

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1878924993503133751

    Tories still second on seats though.

    EC gives a hung parliament on the 1st new Yougov of this parliament with Labour on 287 MPs, the Tories on 128. Reform 106 and the LDs 77, SNP 16 and Greens 4


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&amp;CON=22&amp;LAB=26&amp;LIB=14&amp;Reform=25&amp;Green=8&amp;UKIP=&amp;TVCON=&amp;TVLAB=&amp;TVLIB=&amp;TVReform=&amp;TVGreen=&amp;TVUKIP=&amp;SCOTCON=&amp;SCOTLAB=&amp;SCOTLIB=&amp;SCOTReform=&amp;SCOTGreen=&amp;SCOTUKIP=&amp;SCOTNAT=&amp;display=AllChanged&amp;regorseat=(none)&amp;boundary=2024
    It's a sighting of the rare lesser spotted Yougov VI poll - thought to be extinct!

    Just rejoice at that news.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,637
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all from a sunny and warm Aotearoa :)

    I see the YouGov poll has triggered some discussions which starts from all the usual invalid assumptions. Reform is described as a “right wing” party. Now, first, that’s not correct and second, those still throwing round “left wing” and “right wing” are probably just using them as terms of abuse as they have long ceased to have any practical political definition.

    Reform could be described as “populist” but for me that’s shorthand for being whatever anyone wants them to be - indeed there are parallels with the Alliance in the 1980s whose sole raison d’etre was to be neither Conservative nor Labour.

    Yes there will be those who can define Reformism but I’m not one of them and at the moment they are drawing in the disillusioned but once they are forced to come out with some policies they will be subject to the same scrutiny and will, I suspect, come up short.

    To be fair, no one has any quick and easy solution to the economic malaise and if they had, everyone would be implementing it. The solutions probably aren’t quick or easy and the problem with incoming Governments having taken over from unpopular predecessors is they promise change and have to deliver and given anger and impatience said delivery has to be quick.

    With the further twist that delivery shouldn't, possibly can't, be quick. Quick responses to public outcry are one of the reasons for all of... this.

    Is the government sharpening its tools when everyone is hollering for the trees to be cut down? Given the state of the nation seven months ago, it's probably necessary. I'm not qualified to say if it's happening behind the scenes, but the government certainly needs a better storyteller. One who can quell the peanut gallery.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,203
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    viewcode said:

    https://x.com/javierblas/status/1878830699354165329

    After meeting President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada should prepare for 25% tariffs starting on Jan 20 on all US-bound products, ***including on crude oil***.

    "I'm not expecting any exemptions," she told reporters

    Whilst PB witters on about the Chancellor, Trump declares economic war on the West.
    You are right to point out that Trump is by far the biggest threat to the economy, but that's why a competent Chancellor, and PM, with a deliverable plan matters. Labour should have been preparing us for Trump 2.0 since the general election. Does anyone think that the UK has been Trump-proofed?
    Trump is focused on China, the EU, Canada and Mexico first for his tariffs.

    One benefit of Brexit is we are at the back of his tariffs queue
    The reason is that America has a trade surplus with Britain.
    UK-USA goods trade is beneficial to both sides, almost entirely consisting of goods only manufactured in one country or the other. Services trade is also high between the two.

    Fingers crossed that if Trump goes down the tariffs route, the UK is very much at the back of the queue.

    But yes, the UK government may not be fans of Mr Trump, but he’s about to be sworn in whether we like it or not, and the government needs to engage with his team to protect its own interests.
    I am sure we used to have a trade surplus with America, it's (bad) news to me that recent Governments have managed to allow that to be destroyed.

    But yes, it does happen to make us less of a target.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,771

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    viewcode said:

    https://x.com/javierblas/status/1878830699354165329

    After meeting President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada should prepare for 25% tariffs starting on Jan 20 on all US-bound products, ***including on crude oil***.

    "I'm not expecting any exemptions," she told reporters

    Whilst PB witters on about the Chancellor, Trump declares economic war on the West.
    You are right to point out that Trump is by far the biggest threat to the economy, but that's why a competent Chancellor, and PM, with a deliverable plan matters. Labour should have been preparing us for Trump 2.0 since the general election. Does anyone think that the UK has been Trump-proofed?
    Trump is focused on China, the EU, Canada and Mexico first for his tariffs.

    One benefit of Brexit is we are at the back of his tariffs queue
    The reason is that America has a trade surplus with Britain.
    UK-USA goods trade is beneficial to both sides, almost entirely consisting of goods only manufactured in one country or the other. Services trade is also high between the two.

    Fingers crossed that if Trump goes down the tariffs route, the UK is very much at the back of the queue.

    But yes, the UK government may not be fans of Mr Trump, but he’s about to be sworn in whether we like it or not, and the government needs to engage with his team to protect its own interests.
    I am sure we used to have a trade surplus with America, it's (bad) news to me that recent Governments have managed to allow that to be destroyed.

    But yes, it does happen to make us less of a target.
    That was (and maybe is) the odd thing. Both Britain and America had a trade surplus, presumably due to differences in measurement or definition. All economic statistics are rubbish.
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