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Heart of Oak – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,771
    US President Joe Biden has formally blocked the takeover of US Steel by a bigger Japanese company, saying foreign ownership could pose risks for national security.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2vz83pg9eo

    Britain is for sale. America is not.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,629

    viewcode said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    The cost of employing someone on the minimum wage rises by £2,367 this year

    All thanks to Reeves disastrous budget.

    This will have a dramatic impact on the jobs market and wages. The money has to come from somewhere. Corbynites just cry ‘take it from profits’. Why should they ?

    https://x.com/rcolvile/status/1875109805905633592?s=61l

    Sterling in the toilet against the greenback today.
    It's been in the toilet since Brexit. It just occasionally changes its level in the pan. :(

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=10Y
    We were at two dollars to the pound before Gordon Brown saved the world.
    We were at €1.40 before Cameron had that stupid referendum idea
    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/gbp-to-eur-2025
    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/gbp-to-usd-2025

    Click on "All". It's kind of depressing. 1 GBP=2.4 USD in 1980. It's halved since then.
    And it touched parity in 1986 I think?

    Almost. Not quite.

    The £1=$2.40 was a consequence of North Sea Oil and the oil price at the time (and also, incidentally, devastating for exports). Not long before, in the late 1970s, Sterling had been at about $1.60. On the eve of the Brexit vote, it was about $1.50 .

    In any case, in the long term, one currency's relative value against another will be predominantly determined by relative purchasing power. There's nothing particularly 'good' about an appreciating currency other than that it means you're not
    suffering from excessive inflation.
    That was the point I was making. People focus too much on cable

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,382

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Talking of the Telegraph this headline poses the real question

    Why Musks love in with Tommy Robinson presents a problem for Farage

    Yup. I've thought that as well. All of the LABOUR ARE EVIL posts on there, WE NEED REFORM. And then a rapid pivot to FREE TOMMY ROBINSON complete with SYL looking less thuggish with a Lion and a smart suit superimposed over a flag and the white cliffs of Dover.

    Why does SYL hold such a thrall over some people? Because (a) there is a kernel of truth in his analysis before he pivoting off into "and the solution is deport the muslims", and (b) his presentation is just slick enough to enthral morons.

    Farage knows that offering up kernels of truth and then pivoting off into "lets abolish the NHS" will win a lot of votes. But he also knows that SYL and the other hardcore racists will lose him votes. And yet his boss President Musk just wants to agitate. How do you tell the new boss that he needs to be nuanced, when his movement is about rile up the mob and watch them tear it all down?
    It wouldn't be surprised if Musk continues to pick out individual MPs he hates some Thomas Mair character might act on it. It has happened before. This is one of the reasons I believe Badenoch is unwise to jump onto every passing Musk bandwagon. How long before she starts demanding to "free the Yaxley-Lennon one"?
    Even on here, as I have previously noted, people I thought of as fairly sober but solidly right wrong posters, those who now go on every single day about how crap Labour are in every tiniest respect, jumped in very willingly during the riots with two tier Keir and more than that direct echoing of the lies of actual neo-Nazis to politically point score. After the first 5 weeks of going on about how crap Labour were in every tiniest respect before they'd actually done anything.

    Now PB Tories are a rump of what they once were, but as a grouping most of them now mirror the Corbynites - their hatred of Labour is so blind, so total, that they deserve to be on Prevent's Brownshirt watch - not active neo-Nazis or anything like today but, come the brownshirt revolution, quite susceptible to falling into line.

    So, perhaps with these analytics, Musk is right and Farage is wrong -the basic rump right are already so far down the rabbit hole that his message will hit home.

    Terrible though Muslim bombers and this generation of care home abusers are, the Momentum of Labour haters led by Republican expulsionists is the clearest, most present danger to ripping asunder the fabric of British society and to my own and my family's life because they seek to become once more the establishment. They seek damage in a way that no dodgy Labour tax rise can hope to replicate.

    Yes, the greatest threat to British society now is not Muslim suicide bombers but PB Tories.

    I try not to be a Tory hater, I have little trick with the Fatchtarati, and I am massively saddened to come to the point where I'm concluding this


    Would you care to name just who these so called PB Tories are who should be on a prevent brownshirt watch

    If Starmer and Labour had shown competence and integrity from day 1 we would not be talking about Musk or the hard right
    Hi Big_G.

    I am giving my response some thought, so don't be offended if I'm responding to others around you, but it may be later before I sit and write what I wish to say down.
    No problem, but as a one nation conservative on this forum I am really concerned that anyone would even mention prevent brownshirt watch as I abhor anything and everything to do with the hard right and indeed Farage and Reform as do many conservatives including some posting on here

    The trouble with a fully hard right government coming in is it would not only do so with a significant enough vote share, but would likely, from history, retain support whatever its actions. There would be a churn, hard actions would revulse some golf club boors, but might bring in others.

    MGW posted some v research a few years ago saying that some 35% of adults didn't really care for the truth of matters, as long as you were running their preferred agenda and sticking it to the other side / powers that be, all was well.

    That's a lot of people who can potentially be brought along on a pretty nasty ride, and that includes inevitably some here.

    I think the dangerous thing from which things could descend quite rapidly it's the idea of a mass expulsion of either asylum seekers or Muslims, that could be pushed onto an inexperienced new right party by the baying mob element and be botched by the home office. It easily ends in flames and it quite easily ends with harder elements than mere golf club boors in charge. I don't feel we'd go full Godwin, but a nasty, internally repressive narrow nationalism isn't too hard to see.

    And could sustain 30-35% support for is actions as each line is crossed one by one.

    I took those to task at the time of the riots who I felt crossed a line, I'm not going to be incendiary and name names, or go on into being fashfinder general but that 30-35% support comes from somewhere and if you care to look for the clues you can see, openly, where the idea of sticking it to the man is more important rthan any sense of truth even on the most delicate stuff, you can see a tendency towards being anti- woke flicking over into hatred. You can see several things that should be of concern.

    I'd say you've tended to be credulous of minor scandal and sticking it to the man, and you're all too willing to wash your hands of it and say it's the left's problem now - to an extent that is true with a Labour government, but it's also bigger than that.

    And this stuff clearly angers me too, I'm not too blind to say I don't need to watch myself. August riled me a lot, and I'd like to see posters just recheck where they are with regard to their own lines, and reset accordingly, before they are taken along on ride they might regret. Still give the government a good kicking, still touch on all those sensitive issues, but it's mainstream vs edge now in many respects and we need the mainstream to get is mojo back and succeed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,203
    ydoethur said:

    US President Joe Biden has formally blocked the takeover of US Steel by a bigger Japanese company, saying foreign ownership could pose risks for national security.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2vz83pg9eo

    Britain is for sale. America is not.

    Stop the Steel?
    It's the UK who has stopped the steel. Until we find some way to run a virgin steel making furnace on a couple of duracell triple A's and a hamster wheel.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,114

    ydoethur said:

    US President Joe Biden has formally blocked the takeover of US Steel by a bigger Japanese company, saying foreign ownership could pose risks for national security.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2vz83pg9eo

    Britain is for sale. America is not.

    Stop the Steel?
    It's the UK who has stopped the steel. Until we find some way to run a virgin steel making furnace on a couple of duracell triple A's and a hamster wheel.
    A well deserved counter blast.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,771
    Trump should not accept Britain’s new Ambassador (pictured with Epstein) until Tommy Robinson has been freed by the British state
    https://x.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1874804699175739512

    Well, it made me laugh. Former Clacton MP forgets that Trump was also pictured with Epstein. There must be something in the sea air.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,358
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding the sudden interest from the US in European politics, I missed this from yesterday.
    Is Vance a liar, or just ignorant ?

    I’m not endorsing a party in the German elections, as it’s not my country and we hope to have good relations with all Germans. But this is an interesting piece.

    Also interesting; American media slanders AfD as Nazi-lite, But AfD is most popular in the same areas of Germany that were most resistant to the Nazis.

    https://x.com/JDVance/status/1874894133862769149

    I'm going with "people believe things that reinforce their existing worldviews without doing any research".

    A trait that is all to common here too.
    Can we see your research for that please?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,907
    Posted by a US biotech founder.

    In biotech, China now ahead in ADCs, bispecific Ab’s, T cell engagers, and traditional small mlc’s

    US still slightly ahead on cell and gene therapy, gene editing, and more exotic small molecules (glues, covalents, degraders, etc)

    China clinical dev timelines 50-100% faster

    China preclinical dev timelines 100-200% faster

    This is the on the ground reality;

    US led biotech innovation needs structural + regulation change, or this goes the way of drones, EV cars, (and soon robotics)

    https://x.com/davidycli/status/1874315477490770289
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,763
    edited January 3
    Nigelb said:

    Posted by a US biotech founder.

    In biotech, China now ahead in ADCs, bispecific Ab’s, T cell engagers, and traditional small mlc’s

    US still slightly ahead on cell and gene therapy, gene editing, and more exotic small molecules (glues, covalents, degraders, etc)

    China clinical dev timelines 50-100% faster

    China preclinical dev timelines 100-200% faster

    This is the on the ground reality;

    US led biotech innovation needs structural + regulation change, or this goes the way of drones, EV cars, (and soon robotics)

    https://x.com/davidycli/status/1874315477490770289

    ...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,203

    Trump should not accept Britain’s new Ambassador (pictured with Epstein) until Tommy Robinson has been freed by the British state
    https://x.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1874804699175739512

    Well, it made me laugh. Former Clacton MP forgets that Trump was also pictured with Epstein. There must be something in the sea air.

    He's an odd one Carswell.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,810
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Posted by a US biotech founder.

    In biotech, China now ahead in ADCs, bispecific Ab’s, T cell engagers, and traditional small mlc’s

    US still slightly ahead on cell and gene therapy, gene editing, and more exotic small molecules (glues, covalents, degraders, etc)

    China clinical dev timelines 50-100% faster

    China preclinical dev timelines 100-200% faster

    This is the on the ground reality;

    US led biotech innovation needs structural + regulation change, or this goes the way of drones, EV cars, (and soon robotics)

    https://x.com/davidycli/status/1874315477490770289

    Er, without questioning the general assessment, how is it possible to be 100% faster than time = t?
    The US is 50-100% slower in grasping numerical concepts.
  • Trump should not accept Britain’s new Ambassador (pictured with Epstein) until Tommy Robinson has been freed by the British state
    https://x.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1874804699175739512

    Well, it made me laugh. Former Clacton MP forgets that Trump was also pictured with Epstein. There must be something in the sea air.

    What a clown. As Trump said of his old friend Jeff Epstein, he “likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.”

    Mandelson may have had a picture with Jeff. But you can be pretty sure he wouldn’t have had any interest in the Mr Epstein’s extra-curricular activities.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,763

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Posted by a US biotech founder.

    In biotech, China now ahead in ADCs, bispecific Ab’s, T cell engagers, and traditional small mlc’s

    US still slightly ahead on cell and gene therapy, gene editing, and more exotic small molecules (glues, covalents, degraders, etc)

    China clinical dev timelines 50-100% faster

    China preclinical dev timelines 100-200% faster

    This is the on the ground reality;

    US led biotech innovation needs structural + regulation change, or this goes the way of drones, EV cars, (and soon robotics)

    https://x.com/davidycli/status/1874315477490770289

    Er, without questioning the general assessment, how is it possible to be 100% faster than time = t?
    The US is 50-100% slower in grasping numerical concepts.
    I think it's just his way of saying that it takes half the time to do job x, but then he's in the position of saying that the other limit value is that it takes two-thirds of the time. But it confused me (bad night's sleep admittedly).

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,629
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Posted by a US biotech founder.

    In biotech, China now ahead in ADCs, bispecific Ab’s, T cell engagers, and traditional small mlc’s

    US still slightly ahead on cell and gene therapy, gene editing, and more exotic small molecules (glues, covalents, degraders, etc)

    China clinical dev timelines 50-100% faster

    China preclinical dev timelines 100-200% faster

    This is the on the ground reality;

    US led biotech innovation needs structural + regulation change, or this goes the way of drones, EV cars, (and soon robotics)

    https://x.com/davidycli/status/1874315477490770289

    ...
    The main pinch points are:

    1) capital formation - is good in the US but weak everywhere else (the UK is very good at early stage VC but struggles to find beyond Phase I). China the government just writes cheques

    2) patient recruitment - it’s voluntary in the west… but CROs are generally a bit shit

    3) FDA process - they are underfunded and work to the maximum timeline they can plus some procedural tricks to extend review periods. More resources would help.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,489
    edited January 3

    Trump should not accept Britain’s new Ambassador (pictured with Epstein) until Tommy Robinson has been freed by the British state
    https://x.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1874804699175739512

    Well, it made me laugh. Former Clacton MP forgets that Trump was also pictured with Epstein. There must be something in the sea air.

    Oh dear, Mr Carswell’s definitely been spending too much time in the States.

    To be fair, anyone who’s anyone is US high society has photos with Epstein and Maxwell. That was always what they set out to do, and they executed it brilliantly for a couple of decades before it all came crashing down.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,907
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Posted by a US biotech founder.

    In biotech, China now ahead in ADCs, bispecific Ab’s, T cell engagers, and traditional small mlc’s

    US still slightly ahead on cell and gene therapy, gene editing, and more exotic small molecules (glues, covalents, degraders, etc)

    China clinical dev timelines 50-100% faster

    China preclinical dev timelines 100-200% faster

    This is the on the ground reality;

    US led biotech innovation needs structural + regulation change, or this goes the way of drones, EV cars, (and soon robotics)

    https://x.com/davidycli/status/1874315477490770289

    Er, without questioning the general assessment, how is it possible to be 100% faster than time = t?
    The US is 50-100% slower in grasping numerical concepts.
    I think it's just his way of saying that it takes half the time to do job x, but then he's in the position of saying that the other limit value is that it takes two-thirds of the time. But it confused me (bad night's sleep admittedly).

    Note he's in biotech, not computing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Posted by a US biotech founder.

    In biotech, China now ahead in ADCs, bispecific Ab’s, T cell engagers, and traditional small mlc’s

    US still slightly ahead on cell and gene therapy, gene editing, and more exotic small molecules (glues, covalents, degraders, etc)

    China clinical dev timelines 50-100% faster

    China preclinical dev timelines 100-200% faster

    This is the on the ground reality;

    US led biotech innovation needs structural + regulation change, or this goes the way of drones, EV cars, (and soon robotics)

    https://x.com/davidycli/status/1874315477490770289

    ...
    I assume it means the following:

    USA dev time t1; Chinese Dev time 0.5t1 -> 0.667t1

    USA preclinical time t2; China preclinical dev timelines 0.334t2 -> 0.5t2
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,852

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding the sudden interest from the US in European politics, I missed this from yesterday.
    Is Vance a liar, or just ignorant ?

    I’m not endorsing a party in the German elections, as it’s not my country and we hope to have good relations with all Germans. But this is an interesting piece.

    Also interesting; American media slanders AfD as Nazi-lite, But AfD is most popular in the same areas of Germany that were most resistant to the Nazis.

    https://x.com/JDVance/status/1874894133862769149

    I'm going with "people believe things that reinforce their existing worldviews without doing any research".

    A trait that is all to common here too.
    Can we see your research for that please?
    Let me search the internet for something that specifically matches my existing beliefs, and then I will post it here as proof. (*Cough* not that anyone's guilty of that here *cough*)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,810
    https://x.com/alice_weidel/status/1875195415861293427

    Save the date: On January 9th at 7pm CET, the announced Space with Elon Musk and me will go live on X. We are looking forward to having this exciting conversation and a great audience!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,763

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Posted by a US biotech founder.

    In biotech, China now ahead in ADCs, bispecific Ab’s, T cell engagers, and traditional small mlc’s

    US still slightly ahead on cell and gene therapy, gene editing, and more exotic small molecules (glues, covalents, degraders, etc)

    China clinical dev timelines 50-100% faster

    China preclinical dev timelines 100-200% faster

    This is the on the ground reality;

    US led biotech innovation needs structural + regulation change, or this goes the way of drones, EV cars, (and soon robotics)

    https://x.com/davidycli/status/1874315477490770289

    ...
    The main pinch points are:

    1) capital formation - is good in the US but weak everywhere else (the UK is very good at early stage VC but struggles to find beyond Phase I). China the government just writes cheques

    2) patient recruitment - it’s voluntary in the west… but CROs are generally a bit shit

    3) FDA process - they are underfunded and work to the maximum timeline they can plus some procedural tricks to extend review periods. More resources would help.
    Thanks. I was actually querying his claim that he could do x in 100% less time (or,. indeed, 200% a bit below) but interesting nevertheless.
  • US President Joe Biden has formally blocked the takeover of US Steel by a bigger Japanese company, saying foreign ownership could pose risks for national security.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2vz83pg9eo

    Britain is for sale. America is not.

    And not just under Democrats. Reagan and Bush kept a careful eye on this sort of thing, too.

    Britain has yet to learn, as Will Hutton pointed out last week in his crucial article on the buying out, and usually relocation, of so many essential U.K. tech outfits by U.S. ones
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,966
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Talking of the Telegraph this headline poses the real question

    Why Musks love in with Tommy Robinson presents a problem for Farage

    Yup. I've thought that as well. All of the LABOUR ARE EVIL posts on there, WE NEED REFORM. And then a rapid pivot to FREE TOMMY ROBINSON complete with SYL looking less thuggish with a Lion and a smart suit superimposed over a flag and the white cliffs of Dover.

    Why does SYL hold such a thrall over some people? Because (a) there is a kernel of truth in his analysis before he pivoting off into "and the solution is deport the muslims", and (b) his presentation is just slick enough to enthral morons.

    Farage knows that offering up kernels of truth and then pivoting off into "lets abolish the NHS" will win a lot of votes. But he also knows that SYL and the other hardcore racists will lose him votes. And yet his boss President Musk just wants to agitate. How do you tell the new boss that he needs to be nuanced, when his movement is about rile up the mob and watch them tear it all down?
    It wouldn't be surprised if Musk continues to pick out individual MPs he hates some Thomas Mair character might act on it. It has happened before. This is one of the reasons I believe Badenoch is unwise to jump onto every passing Musk bandwagon. How long before she starts demanding to "free the Yaxley-Lennon one"?
    Even on here, as I have previously noted, people I thought of as fairly sober but solidly right wrong posters, those who now go on every single day about how crap Labour are in every tiniest respect, jumped in very willingly during the riots with two tier Keir and more than that direct echoing of the lies of actual neo-Nazis to politically point score. After the first 5 weeks of going on about how crap Labour were in every tiniest respect before they'd actually done anything.

    Now PB Tories are a rump of what they once were, but as a grouping most of them now mirror the Corbynites - their hatred of Labour is so blind, so total, that they deserve to be on Prevent's Brownshirt watch - not active neo-Nazis or anything like today but, come the brownshirt revolution, quite susceptible to falling into line.

    So, perhaps with these analytics, Musk is right and Farage is wrong -the basic rump right are already so far down the rabbit hole that his message will hit home.

    Terrible though Muslim bombers and this generation of care home abusers are, the Momentum of Labour haters led by Republican expulsionists is the clearest, most present danger to ripping asunder the fabric of British society and to my own and my family's life because they seek to become once more the establishment. They seek damage in a way that no dodgy Labour tax rise can hope to replicate.

    Yes, the greatest threat to British society now is not Muslim suicide bombers but PB Tories.

    I try not to be a Tory hater, I have little trick with the Fatchtarati, and I am massively saddened to come to the point where I'm concluding this


    Would you care to name just who these so called PB Tories are who should be on a prevent brownshirt watch

    If Starmer and Labour had shown competence and integrity from day 1 we would not be talking about Musk or the hard right
    Hi Big_G.

    I am giving my response some thought, so don't be offended if I'm responding to others around you, but it may be later before I sit and write what I wish to say down.
    No problem, but as a one nation conservative on this forum I am really concerned that anyone would even mention prevent brownshirt watch as I abhor anything and everything to do with the hard right and indeed Farage and Reform as do many conservatives including some posting on here

    The trouble with a fully hard right government coming in is it would not only do so with a significant enough vote share, but would likely, from history, retain support whatever its actions. There would be a churn, hard actions would revulse some golf club boors, but might bring in others.

    MGW posted some v research a few years ago saying that some 35% of adults didn't really care for the truth of matters, as long as you were running their preferred agenda and sticking it to the other side / powers that be, all was well.

    That's a lot of people who can potentially be brought along on a pretty nasty ride, and that includes inevitably some here.

    I think the dangerous thing from which things could descend quite rapidly it's the idea of a mass expulsion of either asylum seekers or Muslims, that could be pushed onto an inexperienced new right party by the baying mob element and be botched by the home office. It easily ends in flames and it quite easily ends with harder elements than mere golf club boors in charge. I don't feel we'd go full Godwin, but a nasty, internally repressive narrow nationalism isn't too hard to see.

    And could sustain 30-35% support for is actions as each line is crossed one by one.

    I took those to task at the time of the riots who I felt crossed a line, I'm not going to be incendiary and name names, or go on into being fashfinder general but that 30-35% support comes from somewhere and if you care to look for the clues you can see, openly, where the idea of sticking it to the man is more important rthan any sense of truth even on the most delicate stuff, you can see a tendency towards being anti- woke flicking over into hatred. You can see several things that should be of concern.

    I'd say you've tended to be credulous of minor scandal and sticking it to the man, and you're all too willing to wash your hands of it and say it's the left's problem now - to an extent that is true with a Labour government, but it's also bigger than that.

    And this stuff clearly angers me too, I'm not too blind to say I don't need to watch myself. August riled me a lot, and I'd like to see posters just recheck where they are with regard to their own lines, and reset accordingly, before they are taken along on ride they might regret. Still give the government a good kicking, still touch on all those sensitive issues, but it's mainstream vs edge now in many respects and we need the mainstream to get is mojo back and succeed.
    If you read the Winston Smith blog (and other sources), the problems are structural.

    The structure of how child care is handled prevents stopping the abuse happening.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,145

    Out of interest, did anyone anywhere call for a public inquiry into the 'grooming gangs' before this week? I could be wrong but I've no recollection of it ever being mentioned. That's odd considering it's now being regarded as a panacea. Was there some sort of weird mass myopia at play?

    Multiple enquires at various scales, over the years. @Cyclefree can probably give you a list that will exceed the max length of a PB post.

    I can sum them up for you

    1) Bad stuff happened
    2) People did nothing for a hard to define set of reasons.
    3) Not enough evidence for the people at (2) to even be spoken to harshly. Except some junior people who were following instructions.
    That is not what the various inquiries said. They made multiple concrete recommendations. They provided a bunch of answers.

    What the inquiries didn’t say, however, is that it’s all the fault of Muslims. Some will keep calling for inquiries until they get that answer.
    I can't agree with that - we've had some criminal convictions which is incredibly overdue but welcome. At the moment it does look like it's 'all the fault of the Muslims' - what we're missing is any recognition of and restitution for the enabling of the abuse by the authorities who had a duty of care to the victims.
    The Government commissioned a 2-year report on this, which concluded that, no, it's not specifically a Muslim thing: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5fd87e348fa8f54d5733f532/Group-based_CSE_Paper.pdf

    I would note that highest figure in the Church of England (apart from the King) recently resigned after covering up sexual abuse: https://news.sky.com/story/archbishop-of-canterbury-justin-welby-resigns-after-report-into-sexual-abuse-of-children-13252688

    In the UK, the Catholic Church recently apologised, again, for covering up sexual abuse: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2e400rzygzo Meanwhile, the Catholic Church in Belgium was criticised for having covered up hundreds of cases: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx25gvlgnqgo

    This also from 2024: "There were almost 2,400 allegations of sexual abuse in more than 300 schools run by religious orders in Ireland, according to a report commissioned by the Irish government." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c207ypx22ego

    More came to light recently about a council-run home in Ayrshire. 2 men are now in prison and 10 new arrests were made: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce31ly0zj2no There was a June report about how abuse continued for decades at Gordonstoun: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clddq94w27no

    The beginning of 2024 saw seven convicted in Scotland ("Iain Owens, 45, Elaine Lannery, 39, Lesley Williams, 42, Paul Brannan, 40, Scott Forbes, 50, Barry Watson and John Clark, both 47") in what was described as being "the largest prosecution of a child abuse ring in Scotland." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-67924138

    To tackle these problems requires us to recognise that abuse is widespread.
    Here’s a brutal demolition of the statistical tricks and cheating in the “government report” into the gangs. An outrage. This cover-up is monumental and this time it’s not going away

    “I've read through the infamous UK Home Office grooming report.

    This is routinely used by MSM to deflect attention from groups who committed crimes against young girls in towns across the UK.

    Let's go through the statistical tricks used in this deeply flawed analysis”

    https://x.com/thatkatyagirl/status/1874758304062492953?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,203
    How likely do we think a Labour defeat in Runcorn?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,145

    Trump should not accept Britain’s new Ambassador (pictured with Epstein) until Tommy Robinson has been freed by the British state
    https://x.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1874804699175739512

    Well, it made me laugh. Former Clacton MP forgets that Trump was also pictured with Epstein. There must be something in the sea air.

    Elements of the British Right are literally going insane before our eyes. I'm struggling to identify the cause. Is it Brexit, Trump, Sir Keir, Sir Sadiq or what?
    Given that you’ve been insane these last 8 years, surely you’re best placed to work it out, of all of us
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,852

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Talking of the Telegraph this headline poses the real question

    Why Musks love in with Tommy Robinson presents a problem for Farage

    Yup. I've thought that as well. All of the LABOUR ARE EVIL posts on there, WE NEED REFORM. And then a rapid pivot to FREE TOMMY ROBINSON complete with SYL looking less thuggish with a Lion and a smart suit superimposed over a flag and the white cliffs of Dover.

    Why does SYL hold such a thrall over some people? Because (a) there is a kernel of truth in his analysis before he pivoting off into "and the solution is deport the muslims", and (b) his presentation is just slick enough to enthral morons.

    Farage knows that offering up kernels of truth and then pivoting off into "lets abolish the NHS" will win a lot of votes. But he also knows that SYL and the other hardcore racists will lose him votes. And yet his boss President Musk just wants to agitate. How do you tell the new boss that he needs to be nuanced, when his movement is about rile up the mob and watch them tear it all down?
    It wouldn't be surprised if Musk continues to pick out individual MPs he hates some Thomas Mair character might act on it. It has happened before. This is one of the reasons I believe Badenoch is unwise to jump onto every passing Musk bandwagon. How long before she starts demanding to "free the Yaxley-Lennon one"?
    Even on here, as I have previously noted, people I thought of as fairly sober but solidly right wrong posters, those who now go on every single day about how crap Labour are in every tiniest respect, jumped in very willingly during the riots with two tier Keir and more than that direct echoing of the lies of actual neo-Nazis to politically point score. After the first 5 weeks of going on about how crap Labour were in every tiniest respect before they'd actually done anything.

    Now PB Tories are a rump of what they once were, but as a grouping most of them now mirror the Corbynites - their hatred of Labour is so blind, so total, that they deserve to be on Prevent's Brownshirt watch - not active neo-Nazis or anything like today but, come the brownshirt revolution, quite susceptible to falling into line.

    So, perhaps with these analytics, Musk is right and Farage is wrong -the basic rump right are already so far down the rabbit hole that his message will hit home.

    Terrible though Muslim bombers and this generation of care home abusers are, the Momentum of Labour haters led by Republican expulsionists is the clearest, most present danger to ripping asunder the fabric of British society and to my own and my family's life because they seek to become once more the establishment. They seek damage in a way that no dodgy Labour tax rise can hope to replicate.

    Yes, the greatest threat to British society now is not Muslim suicide bombers but PB Tories.

    I try not to be a Tory hater, I have little trick with the Fatchtarati, and I am massively saddened to come to the point where I'm concluding this


    Would you care to name just who these so called PB Tories are who should be on a prevent brownshirt watch

    If Starmer and Labour had shown competence and integrity from day 1 we would not be talking about Musk or the hard right
    Hi Big_G.

    I am giving my response some thought, so don't be offended if I'm responding to others around you, but it may be later before I sit and write what I wish to say down.
    No problem, but as a one nation conservative on this forum I am really concerned that anyone would even mention prevent brownshirt watch as I abhor anything and everything to do with the hard right and indeed Farage and Reform as do many conservatives including some posting on here

    The trouble with a fully hard right government coming in is it would not only do so with a significant enough vote share, but would likely, from history, retain support whatever its actions. There would be a churn, hard actions would revulse some golf club boors, but might bring in others.

    MGW posted some v research a few years ago saying that some 35% of adults didn't really care for the truth of matters, as long as you were running their preferred agenda and sticking it to the other side / powers that be, all was well.

    That's a lot of people who can potentially be brought along on a pretty nasty ride, and that includes inevitably some here.

    I think the dangerous thing from which things could descend quite rapidly it's the idea of a mass expulsion of either asylum seekers or Muslims, that could be pushed onto an inexperienced new right party by the baying mob element and be botched by the home office. It easily ends in flames and it quite easily ends with harder elements than mere golf club boors in charge. I don't feel we'd go full Godwin, but a nasty, internally repressive narrow nationalism isn't too hard to see.

    And could sustain 30-35% support for is actions as each line is crossed one by one.

    I took those to task at the time of the riots who I felt crossed a line, I'm not going to be incendiary and name names, or go on into being fashfinder general but that 30-35% support comes from somewhere and if you care to look for the clues you can see, openly, where the idea of sticking it to the man is more important rthan any sense of truth even on the most delicate stuff, you can see a tendency towards being anti- woke flicking over into hatred. You can see several things that should be of concern.

    I'd say you've tended to be credulous of minor scandal and sticking it to the man, and you're all too willing to wash your hands of it and say it's the left's problem now - to an extent that is true with a Labour government, but it's also bigger than that.

    And this stuff clearly angers me too, I'm not too blind to say I don't need to watch myself. August riled me a lot, and I'd like to see posters just recheck where they are with regard to their own lines, and reset accordingly, before they are taken along on ride they might regret. Still give the government a good kicking, still touch on all those sensitive issues, but it's mainstream vs edge now in many respects and we need the mainstream to get is mojo back and succeed.
    If you read the Winston Smith blog (and other sources), the problems are structural.

    The structure of how child care is handled prevents stopping the abuse happening.
    If you read any of the stories of fostering and institutional child care in the UK, then you would not wish them on your worst enemy.

    People ask how "terrible things" happens, and then you learn of the utterly pervasive sexual child abuse that happens in these settings.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,382
    edited January 3

    How likely do we think a Labour defeat in Runcorn?

    Not at current polling.

    From Cheshire West and Halton council elections, with Reform nowhere, you could have made a case for the early Boris coalition coming close from a mix of rural shire Tories and Brexit Runcorn town types.

    But I suspect Cheshire W and Halton elements don't pull in the same direction for a by election this year and this is a place where there is a Tory / Reform split.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,907
    Interesting study of the weigh loss drug indicating potential direct benefit in several disease areas independent of its weight loss effect.

    Proteomic changes upon treatment with semaglutide in individuals with obesity
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03355-2
    Obesity and type 2 diabetes are prevalent chronic diseases effectively managed by semaglutide. Here we studied the effects of semaglutide on the circulating proteome using baseline and end-of-treatment serum samples from two phase 3 trials in participants with overweight or obesity, with or without diabetes: STEP 1 (n = 1,311) and STEP 2 (n = 645). We identified evidence supporting broad effects of semaglutide, implicating processes related to body weight regulation, glycemic control, lipid metabolism and inflammatory pathways. Several proteins were regulated with semaglutide, after accounting for changes in body weight and HbA1c at end of trial, suggesting effects of semaglutide on the proteome beyond weight loss and glucose lowering. A comparison of semaglutide with real-world proteomic profiles revealed potential benefits on disease-specific proteomic signatures including the downregulation of specific proteins associated with cardiovascular disease risk, supporting its reported effects of lowering cardiovascular disease risk and potential drug repurposing opportunities. This study showcases the potential of proteomics data gathered from randomized trials for providing insights into disease mechanisms and drug repurposing opportunities. These data also highlight the unmet need for, and importance of, examining proteomic changes in response to weight loss pharmacotherapy in future trials...

    Of course off target effects can be a problem, too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,966
    rcs1000 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Talking of the Telegraph this headline poses the real question

    Why Musks love in with Tommy Robinson presents a problem for Farage

    Yup. I've thought that as well. All of the LABOUR ARE EVIL posts on there, WE NEED REFORM. And then a rapid pivot to FREE TOMMY ROBINSON complete with SYL looking less thuggish with a Lion and a smart suit superimposed over a flag and the white cliffs of Dover.

    Why does SYL hold such a thrall over some people? Because (a) there is a kernel of truth in his analysis before he pivoting off into "and the solution is deport the muslims", and (b) his presentation is just slick enough to enthral morons.

    Farage knows that offering up kernels of truth and then pivoting off into "lets abolish the NHS" will win a lot of votes. But he also knows that SYL and the other hardcore racists will lose him votes. And yet his boss President Musk just wants to agitate. How do you tell the new boss that he needs to be nuanced, when his movement is about rile up the mob and watch them tear it all down?
    It wouldn't be surprised if Musk continues to pick out individual MPs he hates some Thomas Mair character might act on it. It has happened before. This is one of the reasons I believe Badenoch is unwise to jump onto every passing Musk bandwagon. How long before she starts demanding to "free the Yaxley-Lennon one"?
    Even on here, as I have previously noted, people I thought of as fairly sober but solidly right wrong posters, those who now go on every single day about how crap Labour are in every tiniest respect, jumped in very willingly during the riots with two tier Keir and more than that direct echoing of the lies of actual neo-Nazis to politically point score. After the first 5 weeks of going on about how crap Labour were in every tiniest respect before they'd actually done anything.

    Now PB Tories are a rump of what they once were, but as a grouping most of them now mirror the Corbynites - their hatred of Labour is so blind, so total, that they deserve to be on Prevent's Brownshirt watch - not active neo-Nazis or anything like today but, come the brownshirt revolution, quite susceptible to falling into line.

    So, perhaps with these analytics, Musk is right and Farage is wrong -the basic rump right are already so far down the rabbit hole that his message will hit home.

    Terrible though Muslim bombers and this generation of care home abusers are, the Momentum of Labour haters led by Republican expulsionists is the clearest, most present danger to ripping asunder the fabric of British society and to my own and my family's life because they seek to become once more the establishment. They seek damage in a way that no dodgy Labour tax rise can hope to replicate.

    Yes, the greatest threat to British society now is not Muslim suicide bombers but PB Tories.

    I try not to be a Tory hater, I have little trick with the Fatchtarati, and I am massively saddened to come to the point where I'm concluding this


    Would you care to name just who these so called PB Tories are who should be on a prevent brownshirt watch

    If Starmer and Labour had shown competence and integrity from day 1 we would not be talking about Musk or the hard right
    Hi Big_G.

    I am giving my response some thought, so don't be offended if I'm responding to others around you, but it may be later before I sit and write what I wish to say down.
    No problem, but as a one nation conservative on this forum I am really concerned that anyone would even mention prevent brownshirt watch as I abhor anything and everything to do with the hard right and indeed Farage and Reform as do many conservatives including some posting on here

    The trouble with a fully hard right government coming in is it would not only do so with a significant enough vote share, but would likely, from history, retain support whatever its actions. There would be a churn, hard actions would revulse some golf club boors, but might bring in others.

    MGW posted some v research a few years ago saying that some 35% of adults didn't really care for the truth of matters, as long as you were running their preferred agenda and sticking it to the other side / powers that be, all was well.

    That's a lot of people who can potentially be brought along on a pretty nasty ride, and that includes inevitably some here.

    I think the dangerous thing from which things could descend quite rapidly it's the idea of a mass expulsion of either asylum seekers or Muslims, that could be pushed onto an inexperienced new right party by the baying mob element and be botched by the home office. It easily ends in flames and it quite easily ends with harder elements than mere golf club boors in charge. I don't feel we'd go full Godwin, but a nasty, internally repressive narrow nationalism isn't too hard to see.

    And could sustain 30-35% support for is actions as each line is crossed one by one.

    I took those to task at the time of the riots who I felt crossed a line, I'm not going to be incendiary and name names, or go on into being fashfinder general but that 30-35% support comes from somewhere and if you care to look for the clues you can see, openly, where the idea of sticking it to the man is more important rthan any sense of truth even on the most delicate stuff, you can see a tendency towards being anti- woke flicking over into hatred. You can see several things that should be of concern.

    I'd say you've tended to be credulous of minor scandal and sticking it to the man, and you're all too willing to wash your hands of it and say it's the left's problem now - to an extent that is true with a Labour government, but it's also bigger than that.

    And this stuff clearly angers me too, I'm not too blind to say I don't need to watch myself. August riled me a lot, and I'd like to see posters just recheck where they are with regard to their own lines, and reset accordingly, before they are taken along on ride they might regret. Still give the government a good kicking, still touch on all those sensitive issues, but it's mainstream vs edge now in many respects and we need the mainstream to get is mojo back and succeed.
    If you read the Winston Smith blog (and other sources), the problems are structural.

    The structure of how child care is handled prevents stopping the abuse happening.
    If you read any of the stories of fostering and institutional child care in the UK, then you would not wish them on your worst enemy.

    People ask how "terrible things" happens, and then you learn of the utterly pervasive sexual child abuse that happens in these settings.
    The thing that struck me, is how the problem is related to the fix for a previous problem.

    In times past, "care" involved, essentially, imprisoning the children in very harsh conditions. Abuse was rife inside the institutions, of course.

    So a child centred approach was adopted. Even touching a child without consent was made a punishable offence. Winston Smith related (long before Rotherham hit the news) how a regular queue of men in cars would pick up children from outside the homes - staff were powerless to stop them going. If they did try to stop them, the staff would be disciplined and/or prosecuted. The police were not interested. All they could do we was pick them up when left drunk and incapable (often) in other parts of the town.

    This is not to argue that the ghastly institutions of the past were better. But "fixing" one problem has created another.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,315

    NEW THREAD

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    Leon said:

    Trump should not accept Britain’s new Ambassador (pictured with Epstein) until Tommy Robinson has been freed by the British state
    https://x.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1874804699175739512

    Well, it made me laugh. Former Clacton MP forgets that Trump was also pictured with Epstein. There must be something in the sea air.

    Elements of the British Right are literally going insane before our eyes. I'm struggling to identify the cause. Is it Brexit, Trump, Sir Keir, Sir Sadiq or what?
    Given that you’ve been insane these last 8 years, surely you’re best placed to work it out, of all of us
    Not sure my levels of insanity have had me asking foreign governments to block diplomatic appointments so that that Sir Keir feels pressurized to release criminals from British jails.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,145
    One of the big changes in British politics is the presence of Reform MPs, willing to push things like this


    “This is simply staggering. I have verified the source of this information as reliable, from a GP practice in London.

    On a daily average at this practice...

    - Just 8% of appointments are used by British citizens.
    - 51% of patients require an interpreter (at the taxpayer's expense), also in effect taking a double appointment.
    - 72% of all sick notes are issued to patients who do not speak English.

    92% of appointments at this practice being taken by foreign nationals - over half requiring interpretation.

    This is not what the NHS was designed for, this is not what we pay our taxes for.

    Uncontrolled mass immigration has failed the British people.”

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/1875173525595603381?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,203
    Pro_Rata said:

    How likely do we think a Labour defeat in Runcorn?

    Not at current polling.

    From Cheshire West and Halton council elections, with Reform nowhere, you could have made a case for the early Boris coalition coming close from a mix of rural shire Tories and Brexit Runcorn town types.

    But I suspect Cheshire W and Halton elements don't pull in the same direction for a by election this year and this is a place where there is a Tory / Reform split.
    I suspect the Tory vote will fold into the Reform vote to a fairly significant extent.

    Not sure that will be enough to overturn the vast majority though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,241

    How likely do we think a Labour defeat in Runcorn?

    A race to the bottom on turnout...
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,204
    edited January 3
    Leon said:

    Out of interest, did anyone anywhere call for a public inquiry into the 'grooming gangs' before this week? I could be wrong but I've no recollection of it ever being mentioned. That's odd considering it's now being regarded as a panacea. Was there some sort of weird mass myopia at play?

    Multiple enquires at various scales, over the years. @Cyclefree can probably give you a list that will exceed the max length of a PB post.

    I can sum them up for you

    1) Bad stuff happened
    2) People did nothing for a hard to define set of reasons.
    3) Not enough evidence for the people at (2) to even be spoken to harshly. Except some junior people who were following instructions.
    That is not what the various inquiries said. They made multiple concrete recommendations. They provided a bunch of answers.

    What the inquiries didn’t say, however, is that it’s all the fault of Muslims. Some will keep calling for inquiries until they get that answer.
    I can't agree with that - we've had some criminal convictions which is incredibly overdue but welcome. At the moment it does look like it's 'all the fault of the Muslims' - what we're missing is any recognition of and restitution for the enabling of the abuse by the authorities who had a duty of care to the victims.
    The Government commissioned a 2-year report on this, which concluded that, no, it's not specifically a Muslim thing: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5fd87e348fa8f54d5733f532/Group-based_CSE_Paper.pdf

    I would note that highest figure in the Church of England (apart from the King) recently resigned after covering up sexual abuse: https://news.sky.com/story/archbishop-of-canterbury-justin-welby-resigns-after-report-into-sexual-abuse-of-children-13252688

    In the UK, the Catholic Church recently apologised, again, for covering up sexual abuse: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2e400rzygzo Meanwhile, the Catholic Church in Belgium was criticised for having covered up hundreds of cases: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx25gvlgnqgo

    This also from 2024: "There were almost 2,400 allegations of sexual abuse in more than 300 schools run by religious orders in Ireland, according to a report commissioned by the Irish government." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c207ypx22ego

    More came to light recently about a council-run home in Ayrshire. 2 men are now in prison and 10 new arrests were made: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce31ly0zj2no There was a June report about how abuse continued for decades at Gordonstoun: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clddq94w27no

    The beginning of 2024 saw seven convicted in Scotland ("Iain Owens, 45, Elaine Lannery, 39, Lesley Williams, 42, Paul Brannan, 40, Scott Forbes, 50, Barry Watson and John Clark, both 47") in what was described as being "the largest prosecution of a child abuse ring in Scotland." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-67924138

    To tackle these problems requires us to recognise that abuse is widespread.
    Here’s a brutal demolition of the statistical tricks and cheating in the “government report” into the gangs. An outrage. This cover-up is monumental and this time it’s not going away

    “I've read through the infamous UK Home Office grooming report.

    This is routinely used by MSM to deflect attention from groups who committed crimes against young girls in towns across the UK.

    Let's go through the statistical tricks used in this deeply flawed analysis”

    https://x.com/thatkatyagirl/status/1874758304062492953?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    You don't need a Twitter thread to demolish the arguments in the Home Office grooming report. Just quote their own summaries of some of the more conclusive studies they cite (p.26):

    - "In the remaining 1,200 cases [where data was available], ethnicity data was unknown for 38% of them. Where data was available 30% of offenders were White, while 28% were Asian."
    - "Of the 52 groups where data provided was useable, half of the groups consisted of all Asian offenders, 11 were all White offenders, 4 were all Black, and 2 were exclusively Arab."

    At the time, whites were around 90% of the UK population and Asians 4.5%.

    Their pretext for ignoring the blatantly obvious conclusion that any unbiased observer would draw from these studies (in paragraph 80) is essentially a list of moans about the data being "incomplete" (as if any statistical data series is ever perfectly complete).

    Clearly, they were determined not to find a relationship, and they didn't find one, relying on the fact that very few ever read the detailed analysis in government reports. And that especially applies to those that cite them to prove points of their own, which is almost everybody online.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,700
    Leon said:

    One of the big changes in British politics is the presence of Reform MPs, willing to push things like this


    “This is simply staggering. I have verified the source of this information as reliable, from a GP practice in London.

    On a daily average at this practice...

    - Just 8% of appointments are used by British citizens.
    - 51% of patients require an interpreter (at the taxpayer's expense), also in effect taking a double appointment.
    - 72% of all sick notes are issued to patients who do not speak English.

    92% of appointments at this practice being taken by foreign nationals - over half requiring interpretation.

    This is not what the NHS was designed for, this is not what we pay our taxes for.

    Uncontrolled mass immigration has failed the British people.”

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/1875173525595603381?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Absolutely. And that’s why the Conservative Party has been kicked out and is in gladiatorial deathmatch with Reform to even have a future.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,145
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Out of interest, did anyone anywhere call for a public inquiry into the 'grooming gangs' before this week? I could be wrong but I've no recollection of it ever being mentioned. That's odd considering it's now being regarded as a panacea. Was there some sort of weird mass myopia at play?

    Multiple enquires at various scales, over the years. @Cyclefree can probably give you a list that will exceed the max length of a PB post.

    I can sum them up for you

    1) Bad stuff happened
    2) People did nothing for a hard to define set of reasons.
    3) Not enough evidence for the people at (2) to even be spoken to harshly. Except some junior people who were following instructions.
    That is not what the various inquiries said. They made multiple concrete recommendations. They provided a bunch of answers.

    What the inquiries didn’t say, however, is that it’s all the fault of Muslims. Some will keep calling for inquiries until they get that answer.
    I can't agree with that - we've had some criminal convictions which is incredibly overdue but welcome. At the moment it does look like it's 'all the fault of the Muslims' - what we're missing is any recognition of and restitution for the enabling of the abuse by the authorities who had a duty of care to the victims.
    The Government commissioned a 2-year report on this, which concluded that, no, it's not specifically a Muslim thing: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5fd87e348fa8f54d5733f532/Group-based_CSE_Paper.pdf

    I would note that highest figure in the Church of England (apart from the King) recently resigned after covering up sexual abuse: https://news.sky.com/story/archbishop-of-canterbury-justin-welby-resigns-after-report-into-sexual-abuse-of-children-13252688

    In the UK, the Catholic Church recently apologised, again, for covering up sexual abuse: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2e400rzygzo Meanwhile, the Catholic Church in Belgium was criticised for having covered up hundreds of cases: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx25gvlgnqgo

    This also from 2024: "There were almost 2,400 allegations of sexual abuse in more than 300 schools run by religious orders in Ireland, according to a report commissioned by the Irish government." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c207ypx22ego

    More came to light recently about a council-run home in Ayrshire. 2 men are now in prison and 10 new arrests were made: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce31ly0zj2no There was a June report about how abuse continued for decades at Gordonstoun: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clddq94w27no

    The beginning of 2024 saw seven convicted in Scotland ("Iain Owens, 45, Elaine Lannery, 39, Lesley Williams, 42, Paul Brannan, 40, Scott Forbes, 50, Barry Watson and John Clark, both 47") in what was described as being "the largest prosecution of a child abuse ring in Scotland." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-67924138

    To tackle these problems requires us to recognise that abuse is widespread.
    Here’s a brutal demolition of the statistical tricks and cheating in the “government report” into the gangs. An outrage. This cover-up is monumental and this time it’s not going away

    “I've read through the infamous UK Home Office grooming report.

    This is routinely used by MSM to deflect attention from groups who committed crimes against young girls in towns across the UK.

    Let's go through the statistical tricks used in this deeply flawed analysis”

    https://x.com/thatkatyagirl/status/1874758304062492953?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    You don't need a Twitter thread to demolish the arguments in the Home Office grooming report. Just quote their own summaries of some of the more conclusive studies they cite (p.26):

    - "In the remaining 1,200 cases [where data was available], ethnicity data was unknown for 38% of them. Where data was available 30% of offenders were White, while 28% were Asian."
    - "Of the 52 groups where data provided was useable, half of the groups consisted of all Asian offenders, 11 were all White offenders, 4 were all Black, and 2 were exclusively Arab."

    At the time, whites were around 90% of the UK population and Asians 4.5%.

    Their pretext for ignoring the blatantly obvious conclusion that any unbiased observer would draw from these studies (in paragraph 80) is essentially a list of moans about the data being "incomplete" (as if any statistical data series is ever perfectly complete).

    Clearly, they were determined not to find a relationship, and they didn't find one, relying on the fact that very few ever read the detailed analysis in government reports. And that especially applies to those that cite them to prove points of their own, which is almost everybody online.
    Yup. And still people quote this piece of statistical dreck, even on here
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,771

    rcs1000 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Talking of the Telegraph this headline poses the real question

    Why Musks love in with Tommy Robinson presents a problem for Farage

    Yup. I've thought that as well. All of the LABOUR ARE EVIL posts on there, WE NEED REFORM. And then a rapid pivot to FREE TOMMY ROBINSON complete with SYL looking less thuggish with a Lion and a smart suit superimposed over a flag and the white cliffs of Dover.

    Why does SYL hold such a thrall over some people? Because (a) there is a kernel of truth in his analysis before he pivoting off into "and the solution is deport the muslims", and (b) his presentation is just slick enough to enthral morons.

    Farage knows that offering up kernels of truth and then pivoting off into "lets abolish the NHS" will win a lot of votes. But he also knows that SYL and the other hardcore racists will lose him votes. And yet his boss President Musk just wants to agitate. How do you tell the new boss that he needs to be nuanced, when his movement is about rile up the mob and watch them tear it all down?
    It wouldn't be surprised if Musk continues to pick out individual MPs he hates some Thomas Mair character might act on it. It has happened before. This is one of the reasons I believe Badenoch is unwise to jump onto every passing Musk bandwagon. How long before she starts demanding to "free the Yaxley-Lennon one"?
    Even on here, as I have previously noted, people I thought of as fairly sober but solidly right wrong posters, those who now go on every single day about how crap Labour are in every tiniest respect, jumped in very willingly during the riots with two tier Keir and more than that direct echoing of the lies of actual neo-Nazis to politically point score. After the first 5 weeks of going on about how crap Labour were in every tiniest respect before they'd actually done anything.

    Now PB Tories are a rump of what they once were, but as a grouping most of them now mirror the Corbynites - their hatred of Labour is so blind, so total, that they deserve to be on Prevent's Brownshirt watch - not active neo-Nazis or anything like today but, come the brownshirt revolution, quite susceptible to falling into line.

    So, perhaps with these analytics, Musk is right and Farage is wrong -the basic rump right are already so far down the rabbit hole that his message will hit home.

    Terrible though Muslim bombers and this generation of care home abusers are, the Momentum of Labour haters led by Republican expulsionists is the clearest, most present danger to ripping asunder the fabric of British society and to my own and my family's life because they seek to become once more the establishment. They seek damage in a way that no dodgy Labour tax rise can hope to replicate.

    Yes, the greatest threat to British society now is not Muslim suicide bombers but PB Tories.

    I try not to be a Tory hater, I have little trick with the Fatchtarati, and I am massively saddened to come to the point where I'm concluding this


    Would you care to name just who these so called PB Tories are who should be on a prevent brownshirt watch

    If Starmer and Labour had shown competence and integrity from day 1 we would not be talking about Musk or the hard right
    Hi Big_G.

    I am giving my response some thought, so don't be offended if I'm responding to others around you, but it may be later before I sit and write what I wish to say down.
    No problem, but as a one nation conservative on this forum I am really concerned that anyone would even mention prevent brownshirt watch as I abhor anything and everything to do with the hard right and indeed Farage and Reform as do many conservatives including some posting on here

    The trouble with a fully hard right government coming in is it would not only do so with a significant enough vote share, but would likely, from history, retain support whatever its actions. There would be a churn, hard actions would revulse some golf club boors, but might bring in others.

    MGW posted some v research a few years ago saying that some 35% of adults didn't really care for the truth of matters, as long as you were running their preferred agenda and sticking it to the other side / powers that be, all was well.

    That's a lot of people who can potentially be brought along on a pretty nasty ride, and that includes inevitably some here.

    I think the dangerous thing from which things could descend quite rapidly it's the idea of a mass expulsion of either asylum seekers or Muslims, that could be pushed onto an inexperienced new right party by the baying mob element and be botched by the home office. It easily ends in flames and it quite easily ends with harder elements than mere golf club boors in charge. I don't feel we'd go full Godwin, but a nasty, internally repressive narrow nationalism isn't too hard to see.

    And could sustain 30-35% support for is actions as each line is crossed one by one.

    I took those to task at the time of the riots who I felt crossed a line, I'm not going to be incendiary and name names, or go on into being fashfinder general but that 30-35% support comes from somewhere and if you care to look for the clues you can see, openly, where the idea of sticking it to the man is more important rthan any sense of truth even on the most delicate stuff, you can see a tendency towards being anti- woke flicking over into hatred. You can see several things that should be of concern.

    I'd say you've tended to be credulous of minor scandal and sticking it to the man, and you're all too willing to wash your hands of it and say it's the left's problem now - to an extent that is true with a Labour government, but it's also bigger than that.

    And this stuff clearly angers me too, I'm not too blind to say I don't need to watch myself. August riled me a lot, and I'd like to see posters just recheck where they are with regard to their own lines, and reset accordingly, before they are taken along on ride they might regret. Still give the government a good kicking, still touch on all those sensitive issues, but it's mainstream vs edge now in many respects and we need the mainstream to get is mojo back and succeed.
    If you read the Winston Smith blog (and other sources), the problems are structural.

    The structure of how child care is handled prevents stopping the abuse happening.
    If you read any of the stories of fostering and institutional child care in the UK, then you would not wish them on your worst enemy.

    People ask how "terrible things" happens, and then you learn of the utterly pervasive sexual child abuse that happens in these settings.
    The thing that struck me, is how the problem is related to the fix for a previous problem.

    In times past, "care" involved, essentially, imprisoning the children in very harsh conditions. Abuse was rife inside the institutions, of course.

    So a child centred approach was adopted. Even touching a child without consent was made a punishable offence. Winston Smith related (long before Rotherham hit the news) how a regular queue of men in cars would pick up children from outside the homes - staff were powerless to stop them going. If they did try to stop them, the staff would be disciplined and/or prosecuted. The police were not interested. All they could do we was pick them up when left drunk and incapable (often) in other parts of the town.

    This is not to argue that the ghastly institutions of the past were better. But "fixing" one problem has created another.
    This shows another part of the problem. The girls wanted to go with the men. It was grooming, not kidnapping them off the streets, so the police were not interested.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,079
    Sandpit - Thanks for the info on Epstein's victims. Though it reinforces my view that many of our problems have been worsened by our weakened families. Which are difficult for governments to fix.

    In return, a story common among boys and young men in my youth: The boy calls at the family home for a first date. At that time it was common, at least in middle class families for her father to have a talk with the boy, before the girl came down to meet him. The boy and their father have their talk -- and the boy can't help noticing that the father is in the middle of cleaning and oiling his gun. Nothing is said, and nothing need be.

    (Did such things actually happen? Sure, though I have no idea how often.)
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,671

    Scott_xP said:

    carnforth said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh dear, Elon’s woken up and is already retweeting “Tommy”.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875153589318115775

    Someone take his phone off him until he’s sobered up.

    You'd think Farage had warned him against. Unless the Farage/Robinson firewall is going to be breached...
    Er, why? Nigel Farage has afaik met Musk once and there is no formal connection between the two.
    ...

    Am I missing a joke or a sly observation in that cartoon? It just looks like some not very good caricatures of public figures playing darts
    Not only is it poor it’s just trying to ride a popular wave. Get a bit of relevance. More people will be interested in the darts than Musks shitposting.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,312

    rcs1000 said:

    Author and critic David Lodge, best known for his Booker Prize-nominated comic campus novels Small World and Nice Work, has died at the age of 89.

    bbc news

    I used to love his books... albeit about 30 years ago.
    I grew up in Brum - where of course he was a big name.

    Like David Lodge, I'm a fan of Paternosters.

    The only one I have read, also some years ago, was Changing Places - which was the other one in the trilogy.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,054
    The only paternoster I ever encountered was at Sheffield University in 1978. It was a cold and foggy December day, the bus fare from the station to the campus was 2p and I have no other recollection of that day.
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