Categories
Options
This poll feels like a reflection of name recognition – politicalbetting.com
This poll feels like a reflection of name recognition – politicalbetting.com
Presidential Polling:Harris (D): 43% // Vance (R): 41%Vance (R): 37% // Newsom (D): 34%Vance (R): 37% // Shapiro (D): 34%Vance (R): 40% // Whitmer (D): 33%SoCal Strategies / Dec 23, 2024 / n=656
1
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Dems love a centrist, charismatic bullshitter like Clinton Obama or Kennedy and none of the likely candidates stand out in that regard - certainly not Harris - so I think the header is right that her chances are far overrated.
That does show though that a post Trump GOP nominee is eminently beatable if the Democrats can find the right candidate eg a centrist from the Midwest like Buttigieg. Much will also depend on the state of the economy too and if Trump and Vance's tariffs increase prices yet further
P (LFC win title) = 1 - P (anyone else wins title)
And the key anyone else is Arsenal, and Arsenal v LFC was already played in October (2-2 draw btw). The remaining fixture in the second-half of the season is LFC v Arsenal in May.
Nothing is guaranteed but Arsenal are more likely than Liverpool to drop points at Anfield, and they are by far the biggest threat to the title given the shape of the league table.
Yes LFC are yet to play Forest away. Everyone else in the table is likely too far back to be a plausible threat unless LFC totally collapse in the second-half of the season, City-style.
Vance, Newsom and Shapiro lead the betting.
And second, like Arsenal.
Someone who was both racist and genuinely cared about crimes against children would not deliberately attempt to derail the trials of those who were abusing children.
Its possible to pick and choose your moments to make a stink, and derailing the trial of those accused is not the time unless you don't actually give a shit about the victims and are entirely self-centred and interested solely in making the story about yourself and your agenda, and let the victims go swivel if they want to see any justice.
One of the advantages of the US system is that the opposition don't have to choose their leader until the government have largely shown their hand. Depending on how things go, they need either a Katniss Everdeen revolutionary, or someone to Make America Cosy Again. (It probably won't be Tim Walz, but maybe it should be in that situation.)
I suspect that losing parties in the UK choose their leader at the worst time for them to make a good choice.
There may be some value in Whitmer; I don't see any in the others. None is a clear front-runner, a lot can happen between now and 2028, including the Republicans really rigging the system (though that wouldn't matter for the nomination, when those odds are more widely available), and it'll likely be a wide field. At this moment, I'd steer clear of the entire market at the short end. It's a long time to tie money up for, laying favourites; the better value will be on outsiders who could become front-runners.
The Republican nomination may be interesting. Marco Rubio is 50/1 with BetVictor, which is worth looking at as someone who could potentially straddle the MAGA/mainstream divide (which is still there, if concealed for now) - though his path to the White House is difficult if Trump is no longer president and he's unlikely to get the golden endorsement if Trump still is there. But if the world has moved on, he could be in the right place.
Harris because she just lost by more than Hillary. And she only got the gig because she was VP before. I simply can't see her standing. And if she stood she'd lose.
Newsom is slick and smart. Unfortunately, he's also Californian. And he's not even particularly popular with Democrats in California. I would lay him too.
Shapiro could get the nomination. But we have no idea if he'll gain a national presence in the next four years.
Basically, who knows which Democrats will have a good three years, and which will not? It could be that someone we've never heard of manages to grab the headlines.
A lot also depends on Trump's second term. Will he impose tariffs, introduce another bunch of inflation and be really unpopular? Or will the economy bounce back strongly? Either is possible.
Joe Locker
@joelocker96.bsky.social
Follow
🚨BREAKING: 20 Broxtowe Borough councillors, including leader Cllr Milan Radulovic, have resigned from the Labour Party to stand as independents under the Broxtowe Independents group due to unhappiness w/ national and regional party.
#LDReporter
https://bsky.app/profile/joelocker96.bsky.social/post/3lerbwcwzd22z
By Rakib Ehsan"
https://unherd.com/newsroom/britain-needs-an-emergency-census/
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/33761494/multi-market?marketIds=1.235690682
If we consider CCBs to include people who are good, effective politicians (so it needs to be an insult) but not overly earnest or serious, then the centre includes, from the top of my head alongside those you mentioned: Blair, Clegg, Mandelson, Burnham, Cameron, Ruth Davidson, Ed Balls, Cooper (Daisy, not Yvette), Paddy Ashdown, Macron, Tusk, Trudeau, Obama, Streeting, Buttiegieg, Zelenskyy, Juncker, Abe.
Some of us still remember the 77-78 season, when Bob Wilson was rubbishig Forest until losing the First Division title was mathematically impossible.
He was duly pilloried in a way from which nobody can ever recover - a song by Half Man Half Biscuit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eA3RkTFOSWQ
Having read his response to my post, I have to come to the conclusion that HY's IQ just isn't high enough to understand more nuanced argument!
Send him to the local Secondary Modern!
If anyone wants to bet, value is probably actually Trump if you can find a market. But of the ones on there Beshear would be tempting as value assuming no jiggery pokery.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/10/13/democrat-gretchen-whitmer-governor-apologises-dorito/
If it's "Phone the removal people and leave a bottle of champagne and a nice note" then it's 100% a democracy.
If the Opposition all fall out of windows in their basements, then it's 100% not.
I think the arguments for the old 11+ system have been settled. We are not going backwards. We should aim and hope for a world where all schools deliver for all children, but that's a bit too much like helium. As a newish parent I want my boy to have the best schooling possible, but a lot of that starts at home.
I have no idea how we make sure all schools deliver the goods, but proper funding, decent buildings etc is a start. I'm not an expert but I also worry that we are starting to overdiagnose conditions in children. Not everything is a syndrome and not every kid will be academic. Do parents find it easier to deal with a struggling child if there is a label?
However, it is not Trump but Trumpiteisms that is the potentially enduring phenomenon. So the real question is not Trump but who is his, and the movement's, anointed vicar on earth.
Here, a councillor in Tameside challenged the official figures. Was shut down, the council meeting taken off line and he claims he was asked to attend a police interview as his statements could have upset the victims.
The woman in the glasses shaking her head and shouting him down is now chairs the childrens services scrutiny at Tameside.
https://x.com/liambillington/status/1874827587555397667?s=61
The allegation is the council suppressed it to maintain community cohesion.
https://x.com/liambillington/status/1874827587555397667?s=61
"......Philippson railing against inherited privilege when her only job before becoming an MP was in Mummy's charity. lol."
Yuck!
"removal of the term "in a row" from the article regulating presidential term limits, discounting previous and current terms before the amendment entered into force;"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Russian_constitutional_referendum
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bridget_Phillipson
So next Monday for me.
This takes the biscuit
https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1874644085459529883?s=61
If people choose not to vote, that is their right. Personally, I think it's a bad decision and people have a civic duty to inform themselves and participate but if they opt out, that simply gives those that don't more say.
I can only suspect that they haven’t actually researched the case properly. American judges can and do lock people up for contempt of court, so it’s not like the concept doesn’t make sense to Amercians. “Secret” trials with reporting restrictions also happen in the US, for much the same reasons they happen anywhere else.
All very weird.
They might even fit in here on PB...
He was rather disgusted to get contacted and offered a candidacy in a hopeless seat - with the strong implication of more if he wanted it.
Censuses (censusi?) are prepared for many years in advance, with census rehearsals held two years prior (2029), mathematical techniques refined to compensate for non-responders, checks and coordinations made with NRS (Scotland) and NISRA (Northern Ireland), procedures refined such as the Census Coverage Survey (a check made six months after the census proper), with hundreds of people employed in ONS right now and many thousands of more census people employed in the year of the census. It's like invading Europe in 1943 not 1944: it's not doable.
Instead mid-year population estimates are issued annually. You can tell how wrong they are by comparing real-life neonatal intensive care unit usage to the estimate.
See the comedians on Reddit who are desperately sure that the recent bombings were both MAGA and fake and a false flag. All at the same time.
“Wer mit Ungeheuern kämpft, mag zusehn, dass er nicht dabei zum Ungeheuer wird. Und wenn du lange in einen Abgrund blickst, blickt der Abgrund auch in dich hinein.”
I also don't think it is worth betting on anyone at short odds, particularly Vance, for the same reason.
But it's fun to bet a small amount at long odds where the cost of money doesn't really apply.
So I've put £2 on each of
Whitmer 30
Beshear 38
AOC 55
Pritzker 95
Fetterman 190
Klobuchar 200
It means I've got some skin the game to keep my interest. And there may be some interesting trading opportunities nearer the nomination date. I know that at least five of these bets will fail, but it's still possible to make money on trading, even if they all fail, as is likely.
*grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
'References to the gods worshipped in Syria before Islam, as well as images of their statues, are also being dropped.
The significance of the great Syrian heroine Queen Zenobia, who once ruled Palmyra in the Roman era, seems to have been downplayed.
The Assad era has essentially been excised from the curriculum, including poems celebrating both Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez, in Arabic language courses.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ln12056ppo
Though while moving Syria in a more Sunni Islamist direction the new regime still thankfully seems a long way from ISIS jihadism
They look like linked terrorist events.
Of course the Tories had enough of their own MPs accused of sexual perversion at the time to open up too many cans of worms.
Of course Starmer record of DPP actually shows far more progress in dealing with Criminal Gangs if various descriptions
Of course those facts don't suit opportunists like Farage, Trump., Musk ans sadly hapless Kemi has to be seen to join in for fear of losing more votes to the islamaphobic hate mobs.
Of course the likes of Farage, Trump and Musk know all about the perpetrators of rape and sexual attacks being friends of Jeffrey Epstein and Ms Maxwell
No doubt the desperate red top right wing media will be desperate to support fascists like Tommy Robinson and support the probability of more riots.
Goldwater was the GOP nominee in 1964
None of that makes me poor or deserving of special praise. In fact, I'd say I have a pretty affluent background one way and another and I certainly wouldn't have dared to walk out of a well-paid teaching job no matter how miserable we all were and start on my own without a bit of capital behind me.
And although I had lots of help from my parents none of my actual work was for them.
"Raia also said the FBI now believes no one else was involved in the attack. Yesterday, the agency said it believed Jabbar did not act alone. But Raia said that after conducting hundreds of interviews, combing through Jabbar's social media posts and his electronic devices there was nothing to suggest he had worked with others"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4x88455qpt
*exercise to see how many angels can dance on the head of a pin reaches stage 2*
https://x.com/warmonitor3/status/1874859785520320698
That’s four in two days.
Which caused the scandals to be revealed.
Which upset a couple of people, here.
You ‘ad central heating?
It was given notice that it would be turned in to a Comprehensive 6th Form mixed college, like many other old boys and girl grammars by a Conservative Education Minister.
Our Headmaster at the time tore up his Conservative Membership letter at Speech Day.
Her name Margaret Hilda Thatcher
No lessons needed or believed from any Tories about the Grammar System.
BTW the was at the time an extra 13 plus that any pupil a Secondary Modern School who was thought more suited to Grammar School Education could take in some Council areas.
Democratic Presidential Polling:
Harris: 22%
Clinton: 11%
Sanders: 10%
Newsom: 7%
Buttigieg: 7%
Warren: 5%
Klobuchar: 3%
Manchin: 3%
AOC: 3%
Cuomo: 3%
Abrams: 2%
Williamson: 2%
HarrisX / Nov 26, 2024 / n=756
Three octogenarians (by the time of the next election) in that list.
Can someone tell me 1. If this is just one of those things that’s a bit of a bubble on X and 2. Why this has come up again now?
To be honest, a more useful an interesting market is next Vice President. If Trump dies, which has to be a fairly high likelihood given his age and state of health, Vance would need not only a new Veep but one that he can get past Congress, which narrows the field dramatically. Or indeed, if Vance were to die or resign, Trump faces the same problem (with more urgency).
Rubio might be a good bet there.