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It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future… – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,517
    MattW said:

    I ran across an interesting "engineer illustrating" video from Drachinifel earlier.

    This is him exploring 2 questions:

    1 - What ships actually looked like at early 20th century naval warfare ranges? Illustrated using a very zoom camera and views across London from Epsom Downs.
    https://youtu.be/4ioR1rOu3fU?t=2328

    2 - If you are too close to a sinking ship will the “suction” will drag you down? Illustrated using a ramekin dish of food colouring dropped into a tall cylinder of water, and a high frame rate digital camera to illustrate the physics and the fluid dynamics, including a modest refutation of mythbusters - where a rowing boat type sinking did not take the presenter with it. Nicely clear communication.
    https://youtu.be/4ioR1rOu3fU?t=3114

    For @Carnyx and anyone else interested.

    (If you are interested he's also made his own version of Greek Fire - being a medieval re-enacting engineer, and explored what happens when armour impacted by a shell in physical simulation, amongst a number of others.)

    The suction effect, which has been observed in some sinking was caused by a combination of effects.

    One is ships sinking with significant amounts of air still inside - HMS Victoria springs to mind.

    As the ship sank, the air would often continue to flow out, as water flowed in. There were multiple account with Victoria and the Titanic of people being pulled under, against engine room inlet/outlet grills and then being released by the flow stopping.

    A rowing boat wouldn’t have the enclosed space to pull air under
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,151
    edited December 2024
    MattW said:

    I ran across an interesting "engineer illustrating" video from Drachinifel earlier.

    This is him exploring 2 questions:

    1 - What ships actually looked like at early 20th century naval warfare ranges? Illustrated using a very zoom camera and views across London from Epsom Downs.
    https://youtu.be/4ioR1rOu3fU?t=2328

    2 - If you are too close to a sinking ship will the “suction” will drag you down? Illustrated using a ramekin dish of food colouring dropped into a tall cylinder of water, and a high frame rate digital camera to illustrate the physics and the fluid dynamics, including a modest refutation of mythbusters - where a rowing boat type sinking did not take the presenter with it. Nicely clear communication.
    https://youtu.be/4ioR1rOu3fU?t=3114

    For @Carnyx and anyone else interested.

    (If you are interested he's also made his own version of Greek Fire - being a medieval re-enacting engineer, and explored what happens when armour impacted by a shell in physical simulation, amongst a number of others.)

    PS

    Here's the Greek Fire one, where he experimented with different recipes: https://youtu.be/2KFIZk7wK40?t=137

    I'll make this my photo screenshot quota. The arrow points to his leg:
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,053

    HYUFD said:

    The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

    The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

    It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

    Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
    The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
    Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

    Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
    The logic doesn't really matter - the issue is more the UK's current disposition. As dearly as I love my country, we are currently punch-drunk, with a dismal (if not actively disloyal) Government, and a civil service to match. Any formal alliance we enter into will not work for us, because we don't work for us. It will cost us. Once we have a Government with a bit of mojo about it, there will be a few things we need to do before we enter into deep pacts with Canada, Australia, New Zealand or any of the above.

    1. Shore up the UK with a fair, mutually satisfactory and irrevocable constitutional settlement.
    2. Reach an accommodation with the Republic of Ireland that recognises and reinforces the enormously close ties between our nations whilst respecting the Republic's understandable boundaries. Ireland has always been a back door to invasion of the UK by hostile powers, hence the bloody history (which I am not condoning). At the moment the EU, and frankly America, are playing the role that France and others have done in the past. It may be that the UK's future with Ireland might involve pulling it out of the EU by making it a better offer to join a new sterling group. This isn't a Luckyguy fever dream, it's been suggested by people within the ROI: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eirexit-could-ireland-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-1.2864539 - I say this with no resentment toward the EU or wish to diminish it out of spite, I just think Irexit might be a natural progression.

    It is quite clear that foreign entanglements of any kind are useless until these two key issues are resolved.
    It is a fever dream. There is zero chance of Ireland leaving the EU in order to join a Sterling Area, regardless that you can find a couple of cranks on favour of it.

    Most Irish are still proud of having fought the British for their independence. They see EU membership as a guarantee of future Irish independence from British dominance. Those in Ireland who are most hostile to the EU, are mostly those who are most hostile to any foreign interference, whether from Europe, Britain or the US.

    There are certain British people who have a strange sort of blindness when it comes to the Independence of countries that used to be part of the British Empire. As though it's a pretend independence that can be set aside at British whim.

    It's particularly surprising when it comes from Leave supporters who you might think would have some awareness of the importance of independence to a country.

    Absolutely bizarre.
    Have I actually suggested any of the shite in this post? Any stirling group would be just that - a group of countries who trade largely in stirling, potentially not even a formalised organisation, entailing no loss of sovereignty, enforced harmonisation, or costly new bureaucracies. I think that is a far more attractive arrangement than the current 'ever closer union', that does entail all those things with big hairy knobs on.

    Your idiotic rant is utterly misplaced. And utterly typical of remainers, who constantly harp on about the empire when everyone else has moved on. My post was about the simple realities of British foreign affairs, and the immutability of certain issues that are a features of our geography.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,127
    Stereodog said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has called on Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage to end their war of words and call a New Year’s truce.

    The Tory grandee urged both leaders to stop throwing “brickbats at each other” and “unite” to take on Labour.'


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/32518318/kemi-badenoch-nigel-farage-membership-mogg/

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a twat of the first order. The fact that he was given a place on the front bench by his friend The Clown is one of the main reasons the Tories are in such a sorry state and that we have this economically illiterate Labour government
    Boris made Rees-Mogg Leader of the House of Commons. Whilst it is not quite as low a role as I denigratingly joke that it is - suggesting it's role is merely to organise the business schedule of real ministers in the Commons - it is nonetheless not that significant a role compared to many others.

    It took Liz Truss to trust Rees-Mogg enough to be given actual responsibility for a department as a Secretary of State. I find that telling.

    But taking his comments on their own merits it is the all too frequent belief that Farage is really a Tory underneath, despiting opposing/influencing/undercutting them for 20 years, and so the 'solution' to unite with him a lot easier than the reality would indicate.
    I thought Rees-Mogg as Leader of the House was an excellent appointment. Commons staff always loved him because he cared deeply about the arcanae of House proceedings and would spend ages chatting to Hansard Reporters and Vote Writers about their work. He claimed to be able to tell which Hansard Reporter had wrote up a particular debate which is supposed to be impossible. It's only when he was given control of a government department that things began to go wrong
    When I started working in academia I was taken aside by an old-time 'technician' (lab coat, tugged his forelock, was one of the inventors of Radar). He explained to me to treat it as "care out of the community".

    "Just imagine how damaging they'd be if they were out in the real world".

    That line has often come back to me as I watch various MPs, judges, lords and ladies wander through the chambers of Westminster, Holyrood, the European Parliament, etc.

    You go do that thing, over there, in the alcove. Yes, that's it. Whatever. I'll vote for you again in 4-5 years. Thanks. Shush now.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,127

    HYUFD said:

    The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

    The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

    It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

    Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
    The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
    Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

    Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
    The logic doesn't really matter - the issue is more the UK's current disposition. As dearly as I love my country, we are currently punch-drunk, with a dismal (if not actively disloyal) Government, and a civil service to match. Any formal alliance we enter into will not work for us, because we don't work for us. It will cost us. Once we have a Government with a bit of mojo about it, there will be a few things we need to do before we enter into deep pacts with Canada, Australia, New Zealand or any of the above.

    1. Shore up the UK with a fair, mutually satisfactory and irrevocable constitutional settlement.
    2. Reach an accommodation with the Republic of Ireland that recognises and reinforces the enormously close ties between our nations whilst respecting the Republic's understandable boundaries. Ireland has always been a back door to invasion of the UK by hostile powers, hence the bloody history (which I am not condoning). At the moment the EU, and frankly America, are playing the role that France and others have done in the past. It may be that the UK's future with Ireland might involve pulling it out of the EU by making it a better offer to join a new sterling group. This isn't a Luckyguy fever dream, it's been suggested by people within the ROI: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eirexit-could-ireland-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-1.2864539 - I say this with no resentment toward the EU or wish to diminish it out of spite, I just think Irexit might be a natural progression.

    It is quite clear that foreign entanglements of any kind are useless until these two key issues are resolved.
    It is a fever dream. There is zero chance of Ireland leaving the EU in order to join a Sterling Area, regardless that you can find a couple of cranks on favour of it.

    Most Irish are still proud of having fought the British for their independence. They see EU membership as a guarantee of future Irish independence from British dominance. Those in Ireland who are most hostile to the EU, are mostly those who are most hostile to any foreign interference, whether from Europe, Britain or the US.

    There are certain British people who have a strange sort of blindness when it comes to the Independence of countries that used to be part of the British Empire. As though it's a pretend independence that can be set aside at British whim.

    It's particularly surprising when it comes from Leave supporters who you might think would have some awareness of the importance of independence to a country.

    Absolutely bizarre.
    Have I actually suggested any of the shite in this post? Any stirling group would be just that - a group of countries who trade largely in stirling, potentially not even a formalised organisation, entailing no loss of sovereignty, enforced harmonisation, or costly new bureaucracies. I think that is a far more attractive arrangement than the current 'ever closer union', that does entail all those things with big hairy knobs on.

    Your idiotic rant is utterly misplaced. And utterly typical of remainers, who constantly harp on about the empire when everyone else has moved on. My post was about the simple realities of British foreign affairs, and the immutability of certain issues that are a features of our geography.
    With my (faintly remembered) marketing hat on, The Schilling Group might get more traction between the UK and a few euro-mildly-sceptic countries.

    Albeit, opening it's name up to Guardian puns.

    But I can see the native appeal of a 'Hanseatic' grouping based on the old coinage.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,870
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has called on Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage to end their war of words and call a New Year’s truce.

    The Tory grandee urged both leaders to stop throwing “brickbats at each other” and “unite” to take on Labour.'


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/32518318/kemi-badenoch-nigel-farage-membership-mogg/

    The Conservatives need to crush Reform.
    It’s not impossible that by 2029 the Cons are relegated to minor party status.
    Unlikely, on tonight's MRP the Tories gain almost 100 seats and Reform overtake the LDs as the third party in the Commons but Labour still scrape home as largest party in a hung parliament.

    Sir Jacob though is projected to regain his NE Somerset seat and if Kemi resigned after an election defeat Rees Mogg would be ideally placed to replace her as Conservative leader and be much better placed to crush Reform and reunite the right than she is.

    Rees-Mogg? Tory leader? What an excellent idea for all of us who dislike the Tories.
    Many Tory voters thought the same when Corbyn was elected Labour leader in 2015 but at the 2017 general election he got a hung parliament and nearly won. Corbyn united the left behind him as Mogg would unite the right behind him
    Mogg is catastrophically unelectable. Like Corbyn.
    That would be the Corbyn who got 40% of the vote in 2017 and was just another 30 seats from becoming PM?

    Or the Corbyn who in 2019 got 32% of the vote and was less than 2% behind what Starmer got in 2019?

    In these volatile economic times and with populism on the rise to say Mogg is completely unelectable is the height of centrist dad complacency.

    The odds are he isn't but you would have to hope centrist swing voters stick with Labour and the LDs enough to keep The Mogg out as we Tories had to pray centrist swing voters stuck with us enough to keep out Corbyn
    Jez at one point on the night in 2017 went odds on fav to be PM. I remember it well.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,151

    MattW said:

    I ran across an interesting "engineer illustrating" video from Drachinifel earlier.

    This is him exploring 2 questions:

    1 - What ships actually looked like at early 20th century naval warfare ranges? Illustrated using a very zoom camera and views across London from Epsom Downs.
    https://youtu.be/4ioR1rOu3fU?t=2328

    2 - If you are too close to a sinking ship will the “suction” will drag you down? Illustrated using a ramekin dish of food colouring dropped into a tall cylinder of water, and a high frame rate digital camera to illustrate the physics and the fluid dynamics, including a modest refutation of mythbusters - where a rowing boat type sinking did not take the presenter with it. Nicely clear communication.
    https://youtu.be/4ioR1rOu3fU?t=3114

    For @Carnyx and anyone else interested.

    (If you are interested he's also made his own version of Greek Fire - being a medieval re-enacting engineer, and explored what happens when armour impacted by a shell in physical simulation, amongst a number of others.)

    The suction effect, which has been observed in some sinking was caused by a combination of effects.

    One is ships sinking with significant amounts of air still inside - HMS Victoria springs to mind.

    As the ship sank, the air would often continue to flow out, as water flowed in. There were multiple account with Victoria and the Titanic of people being pulled under, against engine room inlet/outlet grills and then being released by the flow stopping.

    A rowing boat wouldn’t have the enclosed space to pull air under
    Yes - it's interesting seeing the air bubbles going down and staying level for some time, before their buoyancy overcoming the pressure caused by the inflow of water from the sides to fill the void being created by the downward movement of the mass.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,870
    kle4 said:

    Popcorn time watching MAGA:



    Bannon’s WarRoom
    @Bannons_WarRoom

    Bannon: @elonmusk you’re gonna go to war on the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend. I hate to make it personal, but you’ve tried to trash individuals by punching down. Remember the first rule at gladiator school, bro: don’t punch down. Either punch a peer or punch up.

    https://x.com/Bannons_WarRoom/status/1873129547803312517

    “Someone please notify CPS; they need to do a wellness check on this toddler."

    Remember the first rule at gladiator school, bro: don’t punch down. Either punch a peer or punch up

    What kind of weirdo 'gladiator school' is that?
    Just seen the film. No mention of that at all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    Exclusive: China Demonstrates WZ-9 Divine Eagle in Flight First Anti-Stealth Drone Detecting Stealth Aircraft.
    https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/exclusive-china-demonstrates-wz-9-divine-eagle-in-flight-first-anti-stealth-drone-detecting-stealth-aircraft#google_vignette

    35m wingspan; big piece of kit.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,151
    edited December 2024
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Popcorn time watching MAGA:



    Bannon’s WarRoom
    @Bannons_WarRoom

    Bannon: @elonmusk you’re gonna go to war on the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend. I hate to make it personal, but you’ve tried to trash individuals by punching down. Remember the first rule at gladiator school, bro: don’t punch down. Either punch a peer or punch up.

    https://x.com/Bannons_WarRoom/status/1873129547803312517

    “Someone please notify CPS; they need to do a wellness check on this toddler."

    Remember the first rule at gladiator school, bro: don’t punch down. Either punch a peer or punch up

    What kind of weirdo 'gladiator school' is that?
    Just seen the film. No mention of that at all.
    Does Bannon have a nomination for a high Government position yet? He's out of prison now so available?

    One thing that struck me this week was that if Trump releases Jan 6 "hostages" from prison through Pardons, that many of the ones still left in prison are those with significant sentences for violence. The smaller criminals received shorter sentences and have been released already.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,399
    edited December 2024
    The idea that Ireland would join a sterling area is absolutely laughable.

    Irish identity is defined in opposition to the UK.
    No political support could ever be amassed in support of it, unless for some reason the EU and Euro broke up under incredibly chaotic circumstances.

    This ship sailed in 1979.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,319
    Nigelb said:

    Elon telling someone to go "fuck yourself in the face" is a perfect ending for 2024.
    https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1872878446072000575

    For an edgelord with a ridiculous amount of money, lots of children, toys and houses, he seems to have spent most of the Holidays arguing with trolls on the internet.

    It can't be that great of life.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,012
    A free movement area comprising the UK, Canada, Australia and NZ is an interesting idea. I suppose the Australians would be concerned that a lot of people from the other countries would move to their coastal areas, but not sure if that would actually happen in reality.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,634
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Elon telling someone to go "fuck yourself in the face" is a perfect ending for 2024.
    https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1872878446072000575

    For an edgelord with a ridiculous amount of money, lots of children, toys and houses, he seems to have spent most of the Holidays arguing with trolls on the internet.

    It can't be that great of life.

    In a way it would be nice to think the super rich and powerful are not enjoying the fruits of their success, and there may even be some amount of truth to it with some of them (including Elon, who seems very fragile in some ways), though I fear some of it at least is just that he enjoys online trolling (that's why he is called an edgelord after all), as stupid an activity as that is.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,238
    Belatedly on topic, thank you for organising @Benpointer. I shall now put news of my 21st place (let’s not worry how many of us there were) on LinkedIn and await the offer of a newspaper column.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,569

    HYUFD said:

    The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

    The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

    It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

    Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
    The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
    Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

    Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
    The logic doesn't really matter - the issue is more the UK's current disposition. As dearly as I love my country, we are currently punch-drunk, with a dismal (if not actively disloyal) Government, and a civil service to match. Any formal alliance we enter into will not work for us, because we don't work for us. It will cost us. Once we have a Government with a bit of mojo about it, there will be a few things we need to do before we enter into deep pacts with Canada, Australia, New Zealand or any of the above.

    1. Shore up the UK with a fair, mutually satisfactory and irrevocable constitutional settlement.
    2. Reach an accommodation with the Republic of Ireland that recognises and reinforces the enormously close ties between our nations whilst respecting the Republic's understandable boundaries. Ireland has always been a back door to invasion of the UK by hostile powers, hence the bloody history (which I am not condoning). At the moment the EU, and frankly America, are playing the role that France and others have done in the past. It may be that the UK's future with Ireland might involve pulling it out of the EU by making it a better offer to join a new sterling group. This isn't a Luckyguy fever dream, it's been suggested by people within the ROI: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eirexit-could-ireland-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-1.2864539 - I say this with no resentment toward the EU or wish to diminish it out of spite, I just think Irexit might be a natural progression.

    It is quite clear that foreign entanglements of any kind are useless until these two key issues are resolved.
    It is a fever dream. There is zero chance of Ireland leaving the EU in order to join a Sterling Area, regardless that you can find a couple of cranks on favour of it.

    Most Irish are still proud of having fought the British for their independence. They see EU membership as a guarantee of future Irish independence from British dominance. Those in Ireland who are most hostile to the EU, are mostly those who are most hostile to any foreign interference, whether from Europe, Britain or the US.

    There are certain British people who have a strange sort of blindness when it comes to the Independence of countries that used to be part of the British Empire. As though it's a pretend independence that can be set aside at British whim.

    It's particularly surprising when it comes from Leave supporters who you might think would have some awareness of the importance of independence to a country.

    Absolutely bizarre.
    Have I actually suggested any of the shite in this post? Any stirling group would be just that - a group of countries who trade largely in stirling, potentially not even a formalised organisation, entailing no loss of sovereignty, enforced harmonisation, or costly new bureaucracies. I think that is a far more attractive arrangement than the current 'ever closer union', that does entail
    all those things with big hairy knobs on.

    Your idiotic rant is utterly misplaced. And utterly typical of remainers, who constantly harp on about the empire when everyone else has moved on. My post was about the simple realities of British foreign affairs, and the immutability of certain issues that are a features of our geography.
    Establishing the punt as separate from the pound (even if it was a fixed exchange ratio for decades) was a hugely important symbolic moment for our Irish brothers. Formal or not they aren’t going to want to use the pound sterling
  • Investors threaten to call in police over huge losses after collapse of Alastair Campbell son's football betting syndicate - after former Labour spin chief and his wife 'invested £300,000 into business venture'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14232547/Investors-police-collapse-Alastair-Campbell-sons-football-betting-syndicate.html

    As you may have read somewhere, it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future…
  • Landlord Treasury minister could face £10,000 fine after failing to get energy certificate for her rental flat
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14232919/Landlord-Treasury-minister-face-fine-failing-energy-certificate.html

    Tulip Siddiq is pursued by the Mail, whose reporter was unable to find the certificate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Elon telling someone to go "fuck yourself in the face" is a perfect ending for 2024.
    https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1872878446072000575

    For an edgelord with a ridiculous amount of money, lots of children, toys and houses, he seems to have spent most of the Holidays arguing with trolls on the internet.

    It can't be that great of life.

    Here he is suggesting Germany treats itself in a similar manner.

    Elon Musk pens German newspaper opinion piece supporting far-right AfD party
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/28/elon-musk-germany-afd-party
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    edited December 2024
    Nasty plane crash in S Korea.
    Sounds as though most passengers died as the aircraft hit a perimeter wall after the undercarriage collapsed, or burned to death.

    A couple of survivors reported.

    I flew Jeju Air last year.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    An inconvenient fact for all those Republican states.

    The top H-1B sponsors in California are overwhelmingly American technology companies. But that's not true of other states. The top sponsors outside California are almost exclusively overseas consultancies and Indian outsourcing companies.
    https://x.com/triplebankshot/status/1872391824188518844
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,235

    Investors threaten to call in police over huge losses after collapse of Alastair Campbell son's football betting syndicate - after former Labour spin chief and his wife 'invested £300,000 into business venture'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14232547/Investors-police-collapse-Alastair-Campbell-sons-football-betting-syndicate.html

    As you may have read somewhere, it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future…

    A fool and his money etc.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,235
    Nigelb said:

    Nasty plane crash in S Korea.
    Sounds as though most passengers died as the aircraft hit a perimeter wall after the undercarriage collapsed, or burned to death.

    A couple of survivors reported.

    I flew Jeju Air last year.

    Some on X reckon that plane had problems on its previous flight.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    Nigelb said:

    An inconvenient fact for all those Republican states.

    The top H-1B sponsors in California are overwhelmingly American technology companies. But that's not true of other states. The top sponsors outside California are almost exclusively overseas consultancies and Indian outsourcing companies.
    https://x.com/triplebankshot/status/1872391824188518844

    This is an analysis which is likely to fuel the war between Musk and MAGA, unless the former modified his position.

    https://x.com/RobertMSterling/status/1873174358535110953
    H-1B DATA MEGA-THREAD 🧵

    I downloaded five years of H-1B data from the US DOL website (4M+ records) and spent the day crunching data.

    I went into this with an open mind, but, to be honest, I'm now *extremely* skeptical of how this program works...

    ...You can see where I’m going with this. A casual perusal of the data shows that this isn’t a program for the top 0.1% of talent, as it’s been described. This is simply a way to recruit hundreds of thousands of relatively lower-wage IT and financial services professionals.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    Deep dive into the brightness of headlights - basically has doubled in the last decade.
    https://www.theringer.com/2024/12/03/tech/headlight-brightness-cars-accidents

    I limit my night driving because of this.

    Tesla is one of the worse offenders.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,737
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    An inconvenient fact for all those Republican states.

    The top H-1B sponsors in California are overwhelmingly American technology companies. But that's not true of other states. The top sponsors outside California are almost exclusively overseas consultancies and Indian outsourcing companies.
    https://x.com/triplebankshot/status/1872391824188518844

    This is an analysis which is likely to fuel the war between Musk and MAGA, unless the former modified his position.

    https://x.com/RobertMSterling/status/1873174358535110953
    H-1B DATA MEGA-THREAD 🧵

    I downloaded five years of H-1B data from the US DOL website (4M+ records) and spent the day crunching data.

    I went into this with an open mind, but, to be honest, I'm now *extremely* skeptical of how this program works...

    ...You can see where I’m going with this. A casual perusal of the data shows that this isn’t a program for the top 0.1% of talent, as it’s been described. This is simply a way to recruit hundreds of thousands of relatively lower-wage IT and financial services professionals.


    Hang on.

    It's entirely possible - maybe even likely - that these H1(B) visas:

    (a) are bad news for Americans who have invested in the technical and coding skills
    and
    (b) good news for the US economy, because they increase the total amount of coding work done. (And this is typically higher than average wages), with the corollary, of course, that it heps keep US tech firms on top, because they have a ready supply of cheap programmers

    Plus:

    (c) it also probably lowers the likelihood of coding work being offshored

    Now, like everything, it's swings and roundabouts. And, of course, firms are profit maximizing and will seek to import an Indian on $120k/year (and who can't switch jobs for a a higher salary!), over hiring native workers. Which comes back to (a) - it sucking for Americans who invested in technical skills.

    But maybe there would be substantially fewer coding jobs in the US, if they couldn't import cheap coders.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,019
    Nigelb said:

    Nasty plane crash in S Korea.
    Sounds as though most passengers died as the aircraft hit a perimeter wall after the undercarriage collapsed, or burned to death.

    A couple of survivors reported.

    I flew Jeju Air last year.

    Top story on the main New Zealand evening news with video of the impact of the plane into a perimeter wall - they showed it on the opening titles and then again on the main report - this time with a warning.

    Mention of a bird strike - the landing gear wasn’t lowered and the pilot had aborted one approach. Flight was from Bangkok.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,710
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    An inconvenient fact for all those Republican states.

    The top H-1B sponsors in California are overwhelmingly American technology companies. But that's not true of other states. The top sponsors outside California are almost exclusively overseas consultancies and Indian outsourcing companies.
    https://x.com/triplebankshot/status/1872391824188518844

    This is an analysis which is likely to fuel the war between Musk and MAGA, unless the former modified his position.

    https://x.com/RobertMSterling/status/1873174358535110953
    H-1B DATA MEGA-THREAD 🧵

    I downloaded five years of H-1B data from the US DOL website (4M+ records) and spent the day crunching data.

    I went into this with an open mind, but, to be honest, I'm now *extremely* skeptical of how this program works...

    ...You can see where I’m going with this. A casual perusal of the data shows that this isn’t a program for the top 0.1% of talent, as it’s been described. This is simply a way to recruit hundreds of thousands of relatively lower-wage IT and financial services professionals.


    Hang on.

    It's entirely possible - maybe even likely - that these H1(B) visas:

    (a) are bad news for Americans who have invested in the technical and coding skills
    and
    (b) good news for the US economy, because they increase the total amount of coding work done. (And this is typically higher than average wages), with the corollary, of course, that it heps keep US tech firms on top, because they have a ready supply of cheap programmers

    Plus:

    (c) it also probably lowers the likelihood of coding work being offshored

    Now, like everything, it's swings and roundabouts. And, of course, firms are profit maximizing and will seek to import an Indian on $120k/year (and who can't switch jobs for a a higher salary!), over hiring native workers. Which comes back to (a) - it sucking for Americans who invested in technical skills.

    But maybe there would be substantially fewer coding jobs in the US, if they couldn't import cheap coders.
    As a matter of interest. how good is in-job training in US companies in the US for engineering jobs? Do they generally invest in their staff? (my guess would be no, in general...)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,493

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    An inconvenient fact for all those Republican states.

    The top H-1B sponsors in California are overwhelmingly American technology companies. But that's not true of other states. The top sponsors outside California are almost exclusively overseas consultancies and Indian outsourcing companies.
    https://x.com/triplebankshot/status/1872391824188518844

    This is an analysis which is likely to fuel the war between Musk and MAGA, unless the former modified his position.

    https://x.com/RobertMSterling/status/1873174358535110953
    H-1B DATA MEGA-THREAD 🧵

    I downloaded five years of H-1B data from the US DOL website (4M+ records) and spent the day crunching data.

    I went into this with an open mind, but, to be honest, I'm now *extremely* skeptical of how this program works...

    ...You can see where I’m going with this. A casual perusal of the data shows that this isn’t a program for the top 0.1% of talent, as it’s been described. This is simply a way to recruit hundreds of thousands of relatively lower-wage IT and financial services professionals.


    Hang on.

    It's entirely possible - maybe even likely - that these H1(B) visas:

    (a) are bad news for Americans who have invested in the technical and coding skills
    and
    (b) good news for the US economy, because they increase the total amount of coding work done. (And this is typically higher than average wages), with the corollary, of course, that it heps keep US tech firms on top, because they have a ready supply of cheap programmers

    Plus:

    (c) it also probably lowers the likelihood of coding work being offshored

    Now, like everything, it's swings and roundabouts. And, of course, firms are profit maximizing and will seek to import an Indian on $120k/year (and who can't switch jobs for a a higher salary!), over hiring native workers. Which comes back to (a) - it sucking for Americans who invested in technical skills.

    But maybe there would be substantially fewer coding jobs in the US, if they couldn't import cheap coders.
    As a matter of interest. how good is in-job training in US companies in the US for engineering jobs? Do they generally invest in their staff? (my guess would be no, in general...)
    I started to answer this question then realised I knew f*** all about it so stopped. Please ignore me... :)
  • rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    An inconvenient fact for all those Republican states.

    The top H-1B sponsors in California are overwhelmingly American technology companies. But that's not true of other states. The top sponsors outside California are almost exclusively overseas consultancies and Indian outsourcing companies.
    https://x.com/triplebankshot/status/1872391824188518844

    This is an analysis which is likely to fuel the war between Musk and MAGA, unless the former modified his position.

    https://x.com/RobertMSterling/status/1873174358535110953
    H-1B DATA MEGA-THREAD 🧵

    I downloaded five years of H-1B data from the US DOL website (4M+ records) and spent the day crunching data.

    I went into this with an open mind, but, to be honest, I'm now *extremely* skeptical of how this program works...

    ...You can see where I’m going with this. A casual perusal of the data shows that this isn’t a program for the top 0.1% of talent, as it’s been described. This is simply a way to recruit hundreds of thousands of relatively lower-wage IT and financial services professionals.


    Hang on.

    It's entirely possible - maybe even likely - that these H1(B) visas:

    (a) are bad news for Americans who have invested in the technical and coding skills
    and
    (b) good news for the US economy, because they increase the total amount of coding work done. (And this is typically higher than average wages), with the corollary, of course, that it heps keep US tech firms on top, because they have a ready supply of cheap programmers

    Plus:

    (c) it also probably lowers the likelihood of coding work being offshored

    Now, like everything, it's swings and roundabouts. And, of course, firms are profit maximizing and will seek to import an Indian on $120k/year (and who can't switch jobs for a a higher salary!), over hiring native workers. Which comes back to (a) - it sucking for Americans who invested in technical skills.

    But maybe there would be substantially fewer coding jobs in the US, if they couldn't import cheap coders.
    As a matter of interest. how good is in-job training in US companies in the US for engineering jobs? Do they generally invest in their staff? (my guess would be no, in general...)
    My experience of having worked for US-based companies is that American college (university) training is very good, and they also provide in-service training, but one thing America does far better than Britain is train its armed forces both during service and on discharge.

    However, a few years ago, American companies discovered labour arbitrage by offshoring to cheaper countries. The downside was loss of control and often of quality since even in cheap countries, the law of the market applies so if you are too cheap, your better workers can switch jobs for more money. Importing labour combines the merits (from the point of view of the penny-pinching companies) of cheaper workers with onshore control.

    Incidentally, many leading American firms are now run by immigrants, for instance the bosses of IBM and Microsoft were born and educated in India, and we all know about Elon Musk.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,136
    Stereodog said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has called on Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage to end their war of words and call a New Year’s truce.

    The Tory grandee urged both leaders to stop throwing “brickbats at each other” and “unite” to take on Labour.'


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/32518318/kemi-badenoch-nigel-farage-membership-mogg/

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a twat of the first order. The fact that he was given a place on the front bench by his friend The Clown is one of the main reasons the Tories are in such a sorry state and that we have this economically illiterate Labour government
    Boris made Rees-Mogg Leader of the House of Commons. Whilst it is not quite as low a role as I denigratingly joke that it is - suggesting it's role is merely to organise the business schedule of real ministers in the Commons - it is nonetheless not that significant a role compared to many others.

    It took Liz Truss to trust Rees-Mogg enough to be given actual responsibility for a department as a Secretary of State. I find that telling.

    But taking his comments on their own merits it is the all too frequent belief that Farage is really a Tory underneath, despiting opposing/influencing/undercutting them for 20 years, and so the 'solution' to unite with him a lot easier than the reality would indicate.
    I thought Rees-Mogg as Leader of the House was an excellent appointment. Commons staff always loved him because he cared deeply about the arcanae of House proceedings and would spend ages chatting to Hansard Reporters and Vote Writers about their work. He claimed to be able to tell which Hansard Reporter had wrote up a particular debate which is supposed to be impossible. It's only when he was given control of a government department that things began to go wrong
    Mogg was a terrible Leader of the House. He refused to allow the Lords and Commons to move out of the Palace of Westminster during the refurbishment which has both delayed the completion of the the programme by up to a decade as well as massively increasing the costs and creating significant safety and in particular fire risks. As for his cavalier treatment of the Constitution and in particular the contempt he demonstrated to the late Queen, frankly "disgraceful" does nott even begin to cover it.
    A bad minister and a bad man.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,995
    Cicero said:

    Stereodog said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has called on Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage to end their war of words and call a New Year’s truce.

    The Tory grandee urged both leaders to stop throwing “brickbats at each other” and “unite” to take on Labour.'


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/32518318/kemi-badenoch-nigel-farage-membership-mogg/

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a twat of the first order. The fact that he was given a place on the front bench by his friend The Clown is one of the main reasons the Tories are in such a sorry state and that we have this economically illiterate Labour government
    Boris made Rees-Mogg Leader of the House of Commons. Whilst it is not quite as low a role as I denigratingly joke that it is - suggesting it's role is merely to organise the business schedule of real ministers in the Commons - it is nonetheless not that significant a role compared to many others.

    It took Liz Truss to trust Rees-Mogg enough to be given actual responsibility for a department as a Secretary of State. I find that telling.

    But taking his comments on their own merits it is the all too frequent belief that Farage is really a Tory underneath, despiting opposing/influencing/undercutting them for 20 years, and so the 'solution' to unite with him a lot easier than the reality would indicate.
    I thought Rees-Mogg as Leader of the House was an excellent appointment. Commons staff always loved him because he cared deeply about the arcanae of House proceedings and would spend ages chatting to Hansard Reporters and Vote Writers about their work. He claimed to be able to tell which Hansard Reporter had wrote up a particular debate which is supposed to be impossible. It's only when he was given control of a government department that things began to go wrong
    Mogg was a terrible Leader of the House. He refused to allow the Lords and Commons to move out of the Palace of Westminster during the refurbishment which has both delayed the completion of the the programme by up to a decade as well as massively increasing the costs and creating significant safety and in particular fire risks. As for his cavalier treatment of the Constitution and in particular the contempt he demonstrated to the late Queen, frankly "disgraceful" does nott even begin to cover it.
    A bad minister and a bad man.
    He also kept falling asleep during debates.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,838



    My experience of having worked for US-based companies is that American college (university) training is very good, and they also provide in-service training, but one thing America does far better than Britain is train its armed forces both during service and on discharge.

    They do, and it's mainly a queston of money. They have a lot of money, the UK has less money and wastes shitloads of it.

    However, the difference is not evenly distributed and British officers get a lot of training continuously directed at them (I got trained how to speak Russian (better), resist interrogation (every married man should do this), iron a shirt (ditto), autorotate a Lynx (never needed to do it sadly), do a nine mile speed march carrying a rifle and a bergen, etc., etc.). Once the other ranks are out of basic training they get very little continuation training unless it is 100% required for their role. They might get a PowerPoint on how not to catch clap once/year.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,098
    stodge said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nasty plane crash in S Korea.
    Sounds as though most passengers died as the aircraft hit a perimeter wall after the undercarriage collapsed, or burned to death.

    A couple of survivors reported.

    I flew Jeju Air last year.

    Top story on the main New Zealand evening news with video of the impact of the plane into a perimeter wall - they showed it on the opening titles and then again on the main report - this time with a warning.

    Mention of a bird strike - the landing gear wasn’t lowered and the pilot had aborted one approach. Flight was from Bangkok.
    Hopefully not a Russian "bird strike".
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,731
    .

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

    The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

    It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

    Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
    I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.

    Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
    Most of the rest are tiny and have non white majority populations, so would look too imperial
    I think PNG would add something useful to the Third Empire.
    PNG's fascinating. The fourth largest population amongst the commonwealth realms, but canibalism documented as recently as ten years ago - and even the capital is considered dangerous to visit.

    Has any PBer been?
    I recall some-one here telling a tale about being in a hotel or restaurant in Port Moresby and a couple of the staff saying they had to go back to their home village for a few days - to kill some-one.
    I've sent you a Vanilla message about your prize.
    Is the prize an all-expenses-paid holiday to Port Moresby?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,864

    .

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

    The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

    It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

    Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
    I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.

    Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
    Most of the rest are tiny and have non white majority populations, so would look too imperial
    I think PNG would add something useful to the Third Empire.
    PNG's fascinating. The fourth largest population amongst the commonwealth realms, but canibalism documented as recently as ten years ago - and even the capital is considered dangerous to visit.

    Has any PBer been?
    I recall some-one here telling a tale about being in a hotel or restaurant in Port Moresby and a couple of the staff saying they had to go back to their home village for a few days - to kill some-one.
    I've sent you a Vanilla message about your prize.
    Is the prize an all-expenses-paid holiday to Port Moresby?
    One way.....
  • Dura_Ace said:



    My experience of having worked for US-based companies is that American college (university) training is very good, and they also provide in-service training, but one thing America does far better than Britain is train its armed forces both during service and on discharge.

    They do, and it's mainly a queston of money. They have a lot of money, the UK has less money and wastes shitloads of it.

    However, the difference is not evenly distributed and British officers get a lot of training continuously directed at them (I got trained how to speak Russian (better), resist interrogation (every married man should do this), iron a shirt (ditto), autorotate a Lynx (never needed to do it sadly), do a nine mile speed march carrying a rifle and a bergen, etc., etc.). Once the other ranks are out of basic training they get very little continuation training unless it is 100% required for their role. They might get a PowerPoint on how not to catch clap once/year.
    You talk o' better food for us, an' schools, an' fires, an' all:
    ...
    For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Chuck him out, the brute!"
    But it's "Saviour of 'is country" when the guns begin to shoot;
  • NEW THREAD

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,838
    Nigelb said:

    An inconvenient fact for all those Republican states.

    The top H-1B sponsors in California are overwhelmingly American technology companies. But that's not true of other states. The top sponsors outside California are almost exclusively overseas consultancies and Indian outsourcing companies.
    https://x.com/triplebankshot/status/1872391824188518844

    DJT reminds me very much of a CO I once had. He didn't want to hear anything he that he did not already believe to be true and very much liked to pit his subordinates against each other with conflicting information and ambiguous delegated authority. Somehow, and it's a mystery how, he was a very good officer in terms of unit performance.

    It wouldn't surprise me if DJT liked the spectacle of Loomer, Bannon, Musk and the other one kicking each other's c-nts in.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,605

    .

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

    The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

    It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

    Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
    I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.

    Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
    Most of the rest are tiny and have non white majority populations, so would look too imperial
    I think PNG would add something useful to the Third Empire.
    PNG's fascinating. The fourth largest population amongst the commonwealth realms, but canibalism documented as recently as ten years ago - and even the capital is considered dangerous to visit.

    Has any PBer been?
    I recall some-one here telling a tale about being in a hotel or restaurant in Port Moresby and a couple of the staff saying they had to go back to their home village for a few days - to kill some-one.
    I've sent you a Vanilla message about your prize.
    Is the prize an all-expenses-paid holiday to Port Moresby?
    “Welcome to Port Moresby. You’ll Never Leave.”
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,605
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    An inconvenient fact for all those Republican states.

    The top H-1B sponsors in California are overwhelmingly American technology companies. But that's not true of other states. The top sponsors outside California are almost exclusively overseas consultancies and Indian outsourcing companies.
    https://x.com/triplebankshot/status/1872391824188518844

    DJT reminds me very much of a CO I once had. He didn't want to hear anything he that he did not already believe to be true and very much liked to pit his subordinates against each other with conflicting information and ambiguous delegated authority. Somehow, and it's a mystery how, he was a very good officer in terms of unit performance.

    It wouldn't surprise me if DJT liked the spectacle of Loomer, Bannon, Musk and the other one kicking each other's c-nts in.
    Working towards the Fuhrer.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,017
    edited December 2024

    HYUFD said:

    The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

    The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

    It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

    Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
    The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
    Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

    Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
    The logic doesn't really matter - the issue is more the UK's current disposition. As dearly as I love my country, we are currently punch-drunk, with a dismal (if not actively disloyal) Government, and a civil service to match. Any formal alliance we enter into will not work for us, because we don't work for us. It will cost us. Once we have a Government with a bit of mojo about it, there will be a few things we need to do before we enter into deep pacts with Canada, Australia, New Zealand or any of the above.

    1. Shore up the UK with a fair, mutually satisfactory and irrevocable constitutional settlement.
    2. Reach an accommodation with the Republic of Ireland that recognises and reinforces the enormously close ties between our nations whilst respecting the Republic's understandable boundaries. Ireland has always been a back door to invasion of the UK by hostile powers, hence the bloody history (which I am not condoning). At the moment the EU, and frankly America, are playing the role that France and others have done in the past. It may be that the UK's future with Ireland might involve pulling it out of the EU by making it a better offer to join a new sterling group. This isn't a Luckyguy fever dream, it's been suggested by people within the ROI: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eirexit-could-ireland-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-1.2864539 - I say this with no resentment toward the EU or wish to diminish it out of spite, I just think Irexit might be a natural progression.

    It is quite clear that foreign entanglements of any kind are useless until these two key issues are resolved.
    It is a fever dream. There is zero chance of Ireland leaving the EU in order to join a Sterling Area, regardless that you can find a couple of cranks on favour of it.

    Most Irish are still proud of having fought the British for their independence. They see EU membership as a guarantee of future Irish independence from British dominance. Those in Ireland who are most hostile to the EU, are mostly those who are most hostile to any foreign interference, whether from Europe, Britain or the US.

    There are certain British people who have a strange sort of blindness when it comes to the Independence of countries that used to be part of the British Empire. As though it's a pretend independence that can be set aside at British whim.

    It's particularly surprising when it comes from Leave supporters who you might think would have some awareness of the importance of independence to a country.

    Absolutely bizarre.
    Have I actually suggested any of the shite in this post? Any stirling group would be just that - a group of countries who trade largely in stirling, potentially not even a formalised organisation, entailing no loss of sovereignty, enforced harmonisation, or costly new bureaucracies. I think that is a far more attractive arrangement than the current 'ever closer union', that does entail all those things with big hairy knobs on.

    Your idiotic rant is utterly misplaced. And utterly typical of remainers, who constantly harp on about the empire when everyone else has moved on. My post was about the simple realities of British foreign affairs, and the immutability of certain issues that are a features of our geography.
    So, on the one hand, pulling Ireland out of the EU into a Sterling Area is a vital and significant step in securing British defence of it's interests and home territory and at the same time I am being idiotic in attaching any constitutional significance to it in terms of Irish independence.

    LOL
  • Andy_JS said:

    A free movement area comprising the UK, Canada, Australia and NZ is an interesting idea. I suppose the Australians would be concerned that a lot of people from the other countries would move to their coastal areas, but not sure if that would actually happen in reality.

    Free movement, even within a country, works well until it becomes exercised excessively.

    Australia is no different.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,053

    HYUFD said:

    The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.

    The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.

    It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.

    Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
    The defence and economic logic doesn’t work.
    Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.

    Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
    The logic doesn't really matter - the issue is more the UK's current disposition. As dearly as I love my country, we are currently punch-drunk, with a dismal (if not actively disloyal) Government, and a civil service to match. Any formal alliance we enter into will not work for us, because we don't work for us. It will cost us. Once we have a Government with a bit of mojo about it, there will be a few things we need to do before we enter into deep pacts with Canada, Australia, New Zealand or any of the above.

    1. Shore up the UK with a fair, mutually satisfactory and irrevocable constitutional settlement.
    2. Reach an accommodation with the Republic of Ireland that recognises and reinforces the enormously close ties between our nations whilst respecting the Republic's understandable boundaries. Ireland has always been a back door to invasion of the UK by hostile powers, hence the bloody history (which I am not condoning). At the moment the EU, and frankly America, are playing the role that France and others have done in the past. It may be that the UK's future with Ireland might involve pulling it out of the EU by making it a better offer to join a new sterling group. This isn't a Luckyguy fever dream, it's been suggested by people within the ROI: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eirexit-could-ireland-follow-britain-out-of-the-eu-1.2864539 - I say this with no resentment toward the EU or wish to diminish it out of spite, I just think Irexit might be a natural progression.

    It is quite clear that foreign entanglements of any kind are useless until these two key issues are resolved.
    It is a fever dream. There is zero chance of Ireland leaving the EU in order to join a Sterling Area, regardless that you can find a couple of cranks on favour of it.

    Most Irish are still proud of having fought the British for their independence. They see EU membership as a guarantee of future Irish independence from British dominance. Those in Ireland who are most hostile to the EU, are mostly those who are most hostile to any foreign interference, whether from Europe, Britain or the US.

    There are certain British people who have a strange sort of blindness when it comes to the Independence of countries that used to be part of the British Empire. As though it's a pretend independence that can be set aside at British whim.

    It's particularly surprising when it comes from Leave supporters who you might think would have some awareness of the importance of independence to a country.

    Absolutely bizarre.
    Have I actually suggested any of the shite in this post? Any stirling group would be just that - a group of countries who trade largely in stirling, potentially not even a formalised organisation, entailing no loss of sovereignty, enforced harmonisation, or costly new bureaucracies. I think that is a far more attractive arrangement than the current 'ever closer union', that does entail
    all those things with big hairy knobs on.

    Your idiotic rant is utterly misplaced. And utterly typical of remainers, who constantly harp on about the empire when everyone else has moved on. My post was about the simple realities of British foreign affairs, and the immutability of certain issues that are a features of our geography.
    Establishing the punt as separate from the pound (even if it was a fixed exchange ratio for decades) was a hugely important symbolic moment for our Irish brothers. Formal or not they aren’t going to want to use the pound sterling
    I keep getting the spellings of Stirling and sterling mixed up. Grrr.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,870
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    An inconvenient fact for all those Republican states.

    The top H-1B sponsors in California are overwhelmingly American technology companies. But that's not true of other states. The top sponsors outside California are almost exclusively overseas consultancies and Indian outsourcing companies.
    https://x.com/triplebankshot/status/1872391824188518844

    This is an analysis which is likely to fuel the war between Musk and MAGA, unless the former modified his position.

    https://x.com/RobertMSterling/status/1873174358535110953
    H-1B DATA MEGA-THREAD 🧵

    I downloaded five years of H-1B data from the US DOL website (4M+ records) and spent the day crunching data.

    I went into this with an open mind, but, to be honest, I'm now *extremely* skeptical of how this program works...

    ...You can see where I’m going with this. A casual perusal of the data shows that this isn’t a program for the top 0.1% of talent, as it’s been described. This is simply a way to recruit hundreds of thousands of relatively lower-wage IT and financial services professionals.


    Hang on.

    It's entirely possible - maybe even likely - that these H1(B) visas:

    (a) are bad news for Americans who have invested in the technical and coding skills
    and
    (b) good news for the US economy, because they increase the total amount of coding work done. (And this is typically higher than average wages), with the corollary, of course, that it heps keep US tech firms on top, because they have a ready supply of cheap programmers

    Plus:

    (c) it also probably lowers the likelihood of coding work being offshored

    Now, like everything, it's swings and roundabouts. And, of course, firms are profit maximizing and will seek to import an Indian on $120k/year (and who can't switch jobs for a a higher salary!), over hiring native workers. Which comes back to (a) - it sucking for Americans who invested in technical skills.

    But maybe there would be substantially fewer coding jobs in the US, if they couldn't import cheap coders.
    As a matter of interest. how good is in-job training in US companies in the US for engineering jobs? Do they generally invest in their staff? (my guess would be no, in general...)
    I started to answer this question then realised I knew f*** all about it so stopped. Please ignore me... :)
    No clue, no comment? That sets a very dangerous precedent.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,870
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    An inconvenient fact for all those Republican states.

    The top H-1B sponsors in California are overwhelmingly American technology companies. But that's not true of other states. The top sponsors outside California are almost exclusively overseas consultancies and Indian outsourcing companies.
    https://x.com/triplebankshot/status/1872391824188518844

    DJT reminds me very much of a CO I once had. He didn't want to hear anything he that he did not already believe to be true and very much liked to pit his subordinates against each other with conflicting information and ambiguous delegated authority. Somehow, and it's a mystery how, he was a very good officer in terms of unit performance.

    It wouldn't surprise me if DJT liked the spectacle of Loomer, Bannon, Musk and the other one kicking each other's c-nts in.
    That's my sense of it. It's a Court and its function is to amuse and entertain Him.
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