I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
More importantly, any poll at this stage tells us nothing about the next election. It tells us about national vibes right now, but not the next election.
Either the stuff the government is announcing and doing will work- in which case, the government will do better than this in 2028/9. Or it won't, in which case they will do far worse.
'The first significant seat-by-seat analysis since the general election forecasts that, if another poll were held today, Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 of the seats it won in July . The party, which won 411 seats in what critics called a “loveless landslide”, would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the Scottish National Party. Labour’s “red wall” gains would be almost entirely reversed, with Reform, rather than the Conservatives, as the main beneficiaries.The analysis, by the think tank More in Common, suggests Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Green Party on two. The implied national vote share has Labour on 25 per cent, the Conservatives on 26 per cent, Reform on 21 per cent, the Lib Dems on 14 per cent, the Greens on 8 per cent, the SNP on 2 per cent and other parties on 3 per cent.'
Rayner, Cooper and Ed Miliband would all lose their seats to Reform but Sir Jacob Rees Mogg would be among defeated Tory MPs in July who if he stood again next time would regain their seat. Making him a contender to be next Tory leader
It was sniffing around a front door on my round. It obviously wasn’t a healthy rat; it took a few seconds to notice me, and it limped back into the corner
Then the plucky little fucker surprised me - it jumped and swiped a front paw at me
It missed by a couple of inches, and then ‘ran’ down the path. It tried to jump into the undergrowth, but was too big for the hole it aimed for and just sat in the corner, when I got the picture
When I walked past it went for me, and missed, again
You just encountered the current best Russian stormtrooper, having burnt though the best of their 'best'...
Good news for Reform from this poll for the Sunday Times but I've a sneaking suspicion Keir Starmer will not copy Theresa May and call a snap election to be held this weekend.
But it might be worth bearing in mind that Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband, among others, are vulnerable. This may impact betting on the next Prime Minister if Starmer does as I expect and resigns à la Harold Wilson before the general election.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
If you want to grow the economy, the first rule is: don't demand that extremely long lockdowns get extended even further
How many billions bigger a black hole would there be if we'd followed Slalom's lockdown advice?
The second rule, which would be the first rule if our new PM hadn't been such an imbecile during Covid, is don't massively increase the cost of employing people
I guess having "a laser like focus on growth" doesn't specify whether one is focused on promoting or destroying it
If everything gets destroyed in burny fire by massive Keir-lasers, and we have to rebuild it all - GDP up!
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
More importantly, any poll at this stage tells us nothing about the next election. It tells us about national vibes right now, but not the next election.
Either the stuff the government is announcing and doing will work- in which case, the government will do better than this in 2028/9. Or it won't, in which case they will do far worse.
In late 2020/2021 the MRPs had the Tories winning a majority/or the largest party in a hung parliament.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
'The first significant seat-by-seat analysis since the general election forecasts that, if another poll were held today, Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 of the seats it won in July . The party, which won 411 seats in what critics called a “loveless landslide”, would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the Scottish National Party. Labour’s “red wall” gains would be almost entirely reversed, with Reform, rather than the Conservatives, as the main beneficiaries.The analysis, by the think tank More in Common, suggests Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Green Party on two. The implied national vote share has Labour on 25 per cent, the Conservatives on 26 per cent, Reform on 21 per cent, the Lib Dems on 14 per cent, the Greens on 8 per cent, the SNP on 2 per cent and other parties on 3 per cent.'
Rayner, Cooper and Ed Miliband would all lose their seats to Reform
Some people really need more to do in their lives. Surely street-sweeping would be more useful!
'The first significant seat-by-seat analysis since the general election forecasts that, if another poll were held today, Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 of the seats it won in July . The party, which won 411 seats in what critics called a “loveless landslide”, would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the Scottish National Party. Labour’s “red wall” gains would be almost entirely reversed, with Reform, rather than the Conservatives, as the main beneficiaries.The analysis, by the think tank More in Common, suggests Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Green Party on two. The implied national vote share has Labour on 25 per cent, the Conservatives on 26 per cent, Reform on 21 per cent, the Lib Dems on 14 per cent, the Greens on 8 per cent, the SNP on 2 per cent and other parties on 3 per cent.'
Rayner, Cooper and Ed Miliband would all lose their seats to Reform but Sir Jacob Rees Mogg would be among defeated Tory MPs in July who if he stood again next time would regain their seat. Making him a contender to be next Tory leader
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
More importantly, any poll at this stage tells us nothing about the next election. It tells us about national vibes right now, but not the next election.
Either the stuff the government is announcing and doing will work- in which case, the government will do better than this in 2028/9. Or it won't, in which case they will do far worse.
In late 2020/2021 the MRPs had the Tories winning a majority/or the largest party in a hung parliament.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
Fleet Street is catching up with PB on the splits, or one of them, between the Musk and Vance tendencies in Trumpland. Tariffs is another.
'Preston Parra, the 23-year-old influencer behind ConservativeOG, said he considered Musk to be a “Trojan horse” in the Maga camp.
“If anyone thinks for one minute the REAL backbone of the Right wing and Maga is gonna stand idly by while these big tech gillionaire Silicon Valley dweebs who didn’t get bullied enough in high school steal our country, they’re mistaken,” Mr Parra told NBC.
He sounds a prize arsehole.
This might even be fun to watch, if we don’t get trashed in the fallout.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
'The first significant seat-by-seat analysis since the general election forecasts that, if another poll were held today, Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 of the seats it won in July . The party, which won 411 seats in what critics called a “loveless landslide”, would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the Scottish National Party. Labour’s “red wall” gains would be almost entirely reversed, with Reform, rather than the Conservatives, as the main beneficiaries.The analysis, by the think tank More in Common, suggests Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Green Party on two. The implied national vote share has Labour on 25 per cent, the Conservatives on 26 per cent, Reform on 21 per cent, the Lib Dems on 14 per cent, the Greens on 8 per cent, the SNP on 2 per cent and other parties on 3 per cent.'
Rayner, Cooper and Ed Miliband would all lose their seats to Reform
Some people really need more to do in their lives. Surely street-sweeping would be more useful!
I sometimes catch sight of a street-sweeper out the window and watch them wistfully. The concrete sense of achievement vs. attending meetings to agree the agenda for the next set of meetings while planning how to lay out your project planner and who is responsible for updating each sub-section, which involves a whole lot more 'stakeholder' meetings...
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
Curious that he doesn't include, say, Gold Coast or British Guiana or British East Africa or the Sandwich Islands.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
Most of the rest are tiny and have non white majority populations, so would look too imperial
Old photo? Isn't Musk supposed to be on these new slimming pills injections (as is Trump according to some)?
Don't know if he's on the poop-pills, just did a search for 'elon musk yacht' as it was the first 'not very youthful rust belt' thing that popped into mind.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada is, much of Canada leans closer to the US eg Alberta (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.
India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)
Irrelevant.
There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.
There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)
Irrelevant.
There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.
There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.
On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.
Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
Most of the rest are tiny and have non white majority populations, so would look too imperial
I think PNG would add something useful to the Third Empire.
Oh dear, I do hope that isn't the single most important post this week. Or year.
Even if it does become pandemic, we’ve no good idea of how serious (or not) it might be. Yet.
At least the planning for the next pandemic but one might turn out to be relevant this time. If they can find it.
It's on page 37496 sub-section D, footnote 4, in faint writing, of the unfinished Covid enquiry report. You just need to skim through the preceding 37495 pages of tittle-tattle and who said what to whom to get the gist. Something, something 'lab leak', something something 'Wales', something something 'oh well, here we go again'.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Maybe Canada and NZ could join AUKUS !!
AUKUS is essentially a defence tech sharing alliance, with a particular focus on nuclear subs for Australia.
NZ is unlikely to join due to its long-standing anti-nuclear policy (also why ANZUS, an actual defence alliance, dissolved).
Also, once you involve the U.S. it is essentially US-run.
Oh dear, I do hope that isn't the single most important post this week. Or year.
Even if it does become pandemic, we’ve no good idea of how serious (or not) it might be. Yet.
At least the planning for the next pandemic but one might turn out to be relevant this time. If they can find it.
Talking about bugs, there's a piece on the Y2K one in the Graun which rather emphasises the point that so many people dismiss its importance now. Rather like the last two seriously worrying potential flu pandemics.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.
India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.
India and South Africa, Singapore, Botswana and Malaysia aren't Commonwealth realms anyway
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Maybe Canada and NZ could join AUKUS !!
NZ and Japan are interested in AUKUS pillar 2 (ie the stuff other than nuclear powered subs). wouldn't be beyond expectations for Canada to be involved in it too.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Maybe Canada and NZ could join AUKUS !!
AUKUS is essentially a defence tech sharing alliance, with a particular focus on nuclear subs for Australia.
NZ is unlikely to join due to its long-standing anti-nuclear policy (also why ANZUS, an actual defence alliance, dissolved).
Also, once you involve the U.S. it is essentially US-run.
Yes I understand that and a UK - Canada economic community would have my full support, and no doubt our eldest son and his Canadian wife living on Vancouver
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
Most of the rest are tiny and have non white majority populations, so would look too imperial
I think PNG would add something useful to the Third Empire.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)
Irrelevant.
There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.
There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.
On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.
Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth
Oh dear, I do hope that isn't the single most important post this week. Or year.
Even if it does become pandemic, we’ve no good idea of how serious (or not) it might be. Yet.
At least the planning for the next pandemic but one might turn out to be relevant this time. If they can find it.
It's on page 37496 sub-section D, footnote 4, in faint writing, of the unfinished Covid enquiry report. You just need to skim through the preceding 37495 pages of tittle-tattle and who said what to whom to get the gist. Something, something 'lab leak', something something 'Wales', something something 'oh well, here we go again'.
Actually, I was thinking of the plan they had in place - but seem to have ignored anyway. One hopes that SKS is rather different in his approach.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)
Irrelevant.
There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.
There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.
On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.
Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth
Is NZ closer to UK than NZ is to Australia?
Yes, intellectually Kiwis think themselves a cut above Australians even if income less they are poorer per head, a bit like Brits and Americans
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.
India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.
India and South Africa, Singapore, Botswana and Malaysia aren't Commonwealth realms anyway
Yes, and not yet at the right stage of social development. Perhaps we could send in a body of Civil Service, missionaries and railway engineers, protected by a military presence and local militias th help develop them?
I am sure that it would provide great career opportunities for the graduates of our public schools.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
If you want to grow the economy, the first rule is: don't demand that extremely long lockdowns get extended even further
How many billions bigger a black hole would there be if we'd followed Slalom's lockdown advice?
The second rule, which would be the first rule if our new PM hadn't been such an imbecile during Covid, is don't massively increase the cost of employing people
I guess having "a laser like focus on growth" doesn't specify whether one is focused on promoting or destroying it
Starmer is doing a blair impression you mean "tough on growth and the causes of growth"?
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.
India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.
India and South Africa, Singapore, Botswana and Malaysia aren't Commonwealth realms anyway
Yes, and not yet at the right stage of social development. Perhaps we could send in a body of Civil Service, missionaries and railway engineers, protected by a military presence and local militias?
I am sure that it would provide great career opportunities for the graduates of our public schools.
No as that would be a war much like Russia and Ukraine, they are nations now not largely tribal and princely states as in the era of colonisation
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
Any poll today can be dismissed as irelevant to 2029, but that doesn't mean they should be ignored in the context of the movement of public opinion now and over the next while
Labour supporters are not slow in publishing polls showing Labour leads
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)
Irrelevant.
There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.
There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.
On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.
Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth
Is NZ closer to UK than NZ is to Australia?
Yes, intellectually Kiwis think themselves a cut above Australians even if income less they are poorer per head, a bit like Brits and Americans
No, NZers and Australians regard themselves as brother nations. There is also freedom of movement though not freedom of welfare benefit between them.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
In December 1979 Thatcher's Tories were on 38-40% in the polls, Starmer's Labour are already polling about 10% below that minimum. The closer comparison would be late 1981 when Thatcher's Tories did fall under 30% after the rise of the SDP but Thatcher needed the Falklands War in 1982 to really put the Tories back clearly to mid thirties plus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election#1979
Oh dear, I do hope that isn't the single most important post this week. Or year.
Even if it does become pandemic, we’ve no good idea of how serious (or not) it might be. Yet.
At least the planning for the next pandemic but one might turn out to be relevant this time. If they can find it.
It's on page 37496 sub-section D, footnote 4, in faint writing, of the unfinished Covid enquiry report. You just need to skim through the preceding 37495 pages of tittle-tattle and who said what to whom to get the gist. Something, something 'lab leak', something something 'Wales', something something 'oh well, here we go again'.
Actually, I was thinking of the plan they had in place - but seem to have ignored anyway. One hopes that SKS is rather different in his approach.
There's no point in having a detailed, well thought out plan if you don't then ignore it. Otherwise you wouldn't need another enquiry staffed by expensive KC's, judges, clerks, etc. Have you not been paying attention to how this works? Honestly, young mister Carnyx. Soon you'll be expecting the next tower-block fire to be quickly and safely dealt with due to the recommendations of the Grenfell Enquiry ;-)
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.
India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.
India and South Africa, Singapore, Botswana and Malaysia aren't Commonwealth realms anyway
Yes, and not yet at the right stage of social development. Perhaps we could send in a body of Civil Service, missionaries and railway engineers, protected by a military presence and local militias th help develop them?
I am sure that it would provide great career opportunities for the graduates of our public schools.
Honestly, I’d be delighted if the Singaporeans sent over a cadre to teach us how to govern ourselves properly.
Oh dear, I do hope that isn't the single most important post this week. Or year.
Even if it does become pandemic, we’ve no good idea of how serious (or not) it might be. Yet.
At least the planning for the next pandemic but one might turn out to be relevant this time. If they can find it.
It's on page 37496 sub-section D, footnote 4, in faint writing, of the unfinished Covid enquiry report. You just need to skim through the preceding 37495 pages of tittle-tattle and who said what to whom to get the gist. Something, something 'lab leak', something something 'Wales', something something 'oh well, here we go again'.
Actually, I was thinking of the plan they had in place - but seem to have ignored anyway. One hopes that SKS is rather different in his approach.
There's no point in having a detailed, well thought out plan if you don't then ignore it. Otherwise you wouldn't need another enquiry staffed by expensive KC's, judges, clerks, etc. Have you not been paying attention to how this works? Honestly, young mister Carnyx. Soon you'll be expecting the next tower-block fire to be quickly and safely dealt with due to the recommendations of the Grenfell Enquiry ;-)
TBF the plan emplaced pre-2019, I forget the code name, *was* for flu-type virus as I understand it. But ... quite so.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)
Irrelevant.
There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.
There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.
On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.
Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth
Is NZ closer to UK than NZ is to Australia?
Yes, intellectually Kiwis think themselves a cut above Australians even if income less they are poorer per head, a bit like Brits and Americans
No, NZers and Australians regard themselves as brother nations. There is also freedom of movement though not freedom of welfare benefit between them.
Indeed and you speak as a Kiwi, and I can affirm that our eldest who has dual nationality would agree
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
Thatcher was looking rather vulnerable in 1981 after a long economic slump, having raised taxes, and considerable disquiet in her own party as to how things were going.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.
Starmer made more net gains than Blair.
Starmer won a lower voteshare than Callaghan and Kinnock 1992 and Corbyn 2019 got let alone Thatcher and Blair ever did.
It was the split between Tories and Reform on the right that gave him a landslide, now Reform is taking Labour votes too
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.
India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.
India and South Africa, Singapore, Botswana and Malaysia aren't Commonwealth realms anyway
Yes, and not yet at the right stage of social development. Perhaps we could send in a body of Civil Service, missionaries and railway engineers, protected by a military presence and local militias th help develop them?
I am sure that it would provide great career opportunities for the graduates of our public schools.
Honestly, I’d be delighted if the Singaporeans sent over a cadre to teach us how to govern ourselves properly.
So long as they never mention the Fall of Singapore.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)
Irrelevant.
There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.
There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.
On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.
Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth
Is NZ closer to UK than NZ is to Australia?
Yes, intellectually Kiwis think themselves a cut above Australians even if income less they are poorer per head, a bit like Brits and Americans
No, NZers and Australians regard themselves as brother nations. There is also freedom of movement though not freedom of welfare benefit between them.
Not entirely in my experience, I once mistook a Kiwi for an Aussie in a pub and was corrected in extremely vehement terms
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.
India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.
India and South Africa, Singapore, Botswana and Malaysia aren't Commonwealth realms anyway
Yes, and not yet at the right stage of social development. Perhaps we could send in a body of Civil Service, missionaries and railway engineers, protected by a military presence and local militias th help develop them?
I am sure that it would provide great career opportunities for the graduates of our public schools.
Honestly, I’d be delighted if the Singaporeans sent over a cadre to teach us how to govern ourselves properly.
I remember reading some 20-30 years ago that there was a Church of Scotland minister in a Scottish parish, who just been tecruited from Botswana. I couldn't help reflecting that it returned the compliment Dr Livingstone paid the Tswana.
Blimey, US Korean War rations contained way more plastic contamination than a Bay Area Starbucks latte.
We did it! We tested 300 Bay Area foods for plastic chemicals. We found some interesting surprises.
Top 5 findings in our test results:
1. Our tests found plastic chemicals in 86% of all foods, with phthalates in 73% of the tested products and bisphenols in 22%. It's everywhere.
2. We detected phthalates in most baby foods and prenatal vitamins.
3. Hot foods which spend 45 minutes in takeout containers have 34% higher levels of plastic chemicals than the same dishes tested directly from the restaurant.
4. The 1950s Army rations we tested contained surprisingly high levels of plastic chemicals.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
But through 1979/80/81, was Thatcher seen as a Thatcher-as-we-remember-her? Before my time, to be honest, but my understanding is not really.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.
Starmer made more net gains than Blair.
It’s an interesting comparison. Two years in, the Thatcher government seemed a failure.
Right now, the Starmer government looks a failure, and will probably look worse in July 2026 (the local elections that year will be hideous for Labour).
But, three years on, the position was transformed.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.
India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.
India and South Africa, Singapore, Botswana and Malaysia aren't Commonwealth realms anyway
Yes, and not yet at the right stage of social development. Perhaps we could send in a body of Civil Service, missionaries and railway engineers, protected by a military presence and local militias th help develop them?
I am sure that it would provide great career opportunities for the graduates of our public schools.
Honestly, I’d be delighted if the Singaporeans sent over a cadre to teach us how to govern ourselves properly.
I remember reading some 20-30 years ago that there was a Church of Scotland minister in a Scottish parish, who just been tecruited from Botswana. I couldn't help reflecting that it returned the compliment Dr Livingstone paid the Tswana.
Yes there are now more Christians in Africa than in Europe, the reverse of the 19th century
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)
Irrelevant.
There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.
There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.
On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.
Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth
Is NZ closer to UK than NZ is to Australia?
Yes, intellectually Kiwis think themselves a cut above Australians even if income less they are poorer per head, a bit like Brits and Americans
No, NZers and Australians regard themselves as brother nations. There is also freedom of movement though not freedom of welfare benefit between them.
Not entirely in my experience, I once mistook a Kiwi for an Aussie in a pub and was corrected in extremely vehement terms
Since this happens to every Kiwi all the time, the person was either a performative grouch, or your line of questioning is just naturally offensive.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.
Starmer made more net gains than Blair.
It’s an interesting comparison. Two years in, the Thatcher government seemed a failure.
Right now, the Starmer government looks a failure, and will probably look worse in July 2026 (the local elections that year will be hideous for Labour).
But, three years on, the position was transformed.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
But through 1979/80/81, was Thatcher seen as a Thatcher-as-we-remember-her? Before my time, to be honest, but my understanding is not really.
In late 1979 and 1980 we were heading for Michael Foot as PM and in late 1981 we were heading for Roy Jenkins as PM if you believed polls at the time. It was the Falklands War which really saved Thatcher and a gradually recovering economy with falling inflation
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)
Irrelevant.
There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.
There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.
On that argument there is an even tighter geopolitical logic in terms of the UK and EU despite the cultural differences.
Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth
Is NZ closer to UK than NZ is to Australia?
Yes, intellectually Kiwis think themselves a cut above Australians even if income less they are poorer per head, a bit like Brits and Americans
No, NZers and Australians regard themselves as brother nations. There is also freedom of movement though not freedom of welfare benefit between them.
Not entirely in my experience, I once mistook a Kiwi for an Aussie in a pub and was corrected in extremely vehement terms
You once met a Kiwi and you speak as an authority V an actual Kiwi and our eldest who holds joint Kiwi - UK nationality !!!
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
Most of the rest are tiny and have non white majority populations, so would look too imperial
I think PNG would add something useful to the Third Empire.
PNG's fascinating. The fourth largest population amongst the commonwealth realms, but canibalism documented as recently as ten years ago - and even the capital is considered dangerous to visit.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.
Starmer made more net gains than Blair.
It’s an interesting comparison. Two years in, the Thatcher government seemed a failure.
Right now, the Starmer government looks a failure, and will probably look worse in July 2026 (the local elections that year will be hideous for Labour).
But, three years on, the position was transformed.
Thatcher had a strategy.
Part of me genuinely wonders if Starmer is doing a form of cosplay where he thinks if he's making himself really unpopular 6 months in it's because he's doing the right thing and exercising good governance and the electorate will come round and he'll inevitably win a second term.
There's an awful lot of wishful thinking going on.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.
Starmer made more net gains than Blair.
It’s an interesting comparison. Two years in, the Thatcher government seemed a failure.
Right now, the Starmer government looks a failure, and will probably look worse in July 2026 (the local elections that year will be hideous for Labour).
But, three years on, the position was transformed.
I looked at the 1981 locals, the Tories lost nearly 1,200 councillors.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Maybe Canada and NZ could join AUKUS !!
AUKUS is essentially a defence tech sharing alliance, with a particular focus on nuclear subs for Australia.
NZ is unlikely to join due to its long-standing anti-nuclear policy (also why ANZUS, an actual defence alliance, dissolved).
Also, once you involve the U.S. it is essentially US-run.
New Zealand essentially plays the Ireland to Australia's UK, geopolitically speaking.
They can luxuriate in anti-nuclear ideology because they're comfortably shielded.
I don't know. The Tories did a good job of screwing the farmers and fisherfolk in the UK. Or maybe the NFU just isn't that powerful here?
The Tories took the fisherfolk out of the CFP as they wanted and got farmers new export opportunities to Australia and NZ. It is Labour screwing the farmers now with the IHT hit they will face
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.
Starmer made more net gains than Blair.
Throughout his political career Starmer has consistently been underestimated, yet has triumphed over multiple obstacles?
Has his luck run out? He seems to be carrying the curse of the monkey's paw at the moment, but he isn't done yet.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
The defence and economic logic doesn’t work. Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Australia and NZ are closer in culture to the UK than most of Canada, which leans closer to the US (and Quebec leans closer to France than either)
Irrelevant.
There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.
There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.
We couldn't defend it even then.
We shat that bed with our utterly piss-poor performance in defending Singapore, which I find shameful to this day.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.
Starmer made more net gains than Blair.
Throughout his political career Starmer has consistently been underestimated, yet has triumphed over multiple obstacles?
Has his luck run out? He seems to be carrying the curse of the monkey's paw at the moment, but he isn't done yet.
At the moment he looks like the UK Hollande, Biden or Scholz
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
It would also make sense to link up with the islands in between so Iceland and Greenland could become part of it.
The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth
This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.
It's not the job of regulators to do this. Did no-one in Labour do any thinking at all while in opposition?
It seems to me to be quite in order to ask regulators how regulation can be improved; they are the ones who are closest to their industries or sectors.
And it seems that it is in the remit:
Most of Britain's economic regulators already have a Growth Duty enshrined in their statute, having come into effect in March 2017 under the Deregulation Act of two years earlier.
I think we have a late winner for Freudian slip of the year.
Good thinking Batman - let's get the Management Consultants in, instead of anyone who understands the industry !
In reply to this one:
A man in a hot air balloon realised that he was lost. He reduced altitude and spotted a young woman walking a dog. He said “Excuse me, I am meant to be meeting a friend but I am completely lost. Can you tell me where I am?”
The young woman responded “You are in a hot air balloon hovering about 60 feet above the ground at latitude 40 degrees north and longitude 58 degrees west.”
The man responded “You must be in IT!”. “Well, yes I am” said the woman, “and you must be a management consultant.”
“That’s right” said the man “but how did you know that?” “Well,” the woman responded “you don’t know where you are or where you are going. You have risen to where you are, due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise which you have no idea how to keep, but expect people beneath you to solve your problems. The fact is that you are in exactly the same position now as when we met, but now, somehow, it’s my f****ing fault!”
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.
India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.
South Africa should be similar and friendly but has been fundamentally corrupted.
Though I hate it, personally, I can sort of understand the geopolitical logic in India playing both sides. But morally they should have more sympathy with Western values, given their governance and constitution.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
Add Australia and New Zealand too ie the main Commonwealth realms all together
I see that we have reached the League of Empire Loyalists part of the evening.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
It would depend on how friendly they were, and how similar the alignment in terms of foreign policy.
India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.
South Africa should be similar and friendly but has been fundamentally corrupted.
Though I hate it, personally, I can sort of understand the geopolitical logic in India playing both sides. But morally they should have more sympathy with Western values, given their governance and constitution.
India was neutral in the Cold War and will remain neutral largely now in geopolitics bar clashes with Pakistan and the odd spat with China.
South Africa was more pro western under the apartheid regime than now but that regime obviously had no real legitimacy (and nowadays would likely have considered much of the west corrupted by wokeism anyway)
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
But through 1979/80/81, was Thatcher seen as a Thatcher-as-we-remember-her? Before my time, to be honest, but my understanding is not really.
In late 1979 and 1980 we were heading for Michael Foot as PM and in late 1981 we were heading for Roy Jenkins as PM if you believed polls at the time. It was the Falklands War which really saved Thatcher and a gradually recovering economy with falling inflation
Except Jim Callaghan was leader through 1979 and 1980 and Denis Healey was seen as the favourite to take over from him. While that was the case, Labour built up a solid (though perhaps not swingback-proof) lead in the polls.
Things started to go south for them when they elected a new leader who the public could never take seriously as a potential PM, even though he tickled the activists' ideological tummies.
The point of a British-Canadian “economic community” would be to create a middle power of scale that provides strengthened independence and retains a privileged position with both the U.S. and the EU.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
It's a cracking idea.
I’m glad you approve.
The idea came to me after a friend - a Labour Party insider with an interest in foreign policy - asked me a few years ago how the UK could be “great again”.
An Anglo-Canadian community (I’m not using the word union), provides a third way for Britain outside of rejoining the EU and becoming an impoverished satellite of the U.S.
It does not preclude greater co-operation with either, indeed, in a way both are part of the same logic.
The community would start with stronger defence co-operation, a single market, and freedom of movement. It would aim to connect the UK via the back door into NAFTA, and Canada similarly into the European single market.
It would allow for scaled Anglo-Canadian industry to compete better on the global market, and provide better energy security for the UK. It would provide greater strength for Canada against the US and rival powers (witness the recent India-Canada stoush).
It also “makes” the UK a more credible Pacific power.
The reason for bringing it back up is there has been some independent chatter about the idea online as a result of Trump’s suggestion the Canada dissolve itself into the U.S.
I hoped you and More In Common would remember that the MRP were utter bollocks at the last general election.
I am putting them in the Scottish subsample category.
Are you saying more in common are not a reputable polling company, or you just do not like what they and the other poll tonight have reported, both of which say much the same
I am saying the MRPs were utter gash at the last general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
Maybe but it is one of two polls tonight indicating a very similar snapshot of public opinion
One is an untested methodology, the other is a methodology that had an inglorious record at GE2024.
Just as a matter of interest do you think they are wrong
We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
I am saying MRPs this far out are wrong, in 2021 the Tories were predicted to win 386 seats with one MRP.
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
The Johnson government had yet to decline in popularity as the Starmer government already has
I am going through the stats, for a thread header in the New Year, and Starmer's fall is reminiscent of Thatcher's first two years.
Starmer is no Thatcher or indeed Blair
Starmer won a bigger majority than Thatcher ever achieved.
Starmer made more net gains than Blair.
It’s an interesting comparison. Two years in, the Thatcher government seemed a failure.
Right now, the Starmer government looks a failure, and will probably look worse in July 2026 (the local elections that year will be hideous for Labour).
But, three years on, the position was transformed.
Thatcher had a strategy.
Part of me genuinely wonders if Starmer is doing a form of cosplay where he thinks if he's making himself really unpopular 6 months in it's because he's doing the right thing and exercising good governance and the electorate will come round and he'll inevitably win a second term.
There's an awful lot of wishful thinking going on.
That's why he is unpopular, more than anything. People like you (no offence) were always going to descend into hysterics when Labour got back in government. What he hasn't demonstrated to centrists/left wingers is any sort of mission or energy in the way that Thatcher did for centrists/right wingers back in the 80s.
There's a reason I've enjoyed Miliband and how much he has wound people up. He appears to be only person who is up for taking on the naysayers and has the courage of his convictions - and even then, what he's doing isn't particularly radical at all.
Comments
Either the stuff the government is announcing and doing will work- in which case, the government will do better than this in 2028/9. Or it won't, in which case they will do far worse.
The implied national vote share has Labour on 25 per cent, the Conservatives on 26 per cent, Reform on 21 per cent, the Lib Dems on 14 per cent, the Greens on 8 per cent, the SNP on 2 per cent and other parties on 3 per cent.'
Rayner, Cooper and Ed Miliband would all lose their seats to Reform but Sir Jacob Rees Mogg would be among defeated Tory MPs in July who if he stood again next time would regain their seat. Making him a contender to be next Tory leader
Simply untrue for most young people
YouGov had Musk approval
18-24
approve 10%
disapprove 74%
25-49
Approve 20%
Disapprove 64%
https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3leczosj6wc2d
But it might be worth bearing in mind that Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband, among others, are vulnerable. This may impact betting on the next Prime Minister if Starmer does as I expect and resigns à la Harold Wilson before the general election.
I would also point out what the father of the MRP Ben Lauderdale said, MRPs are only really worth something six months before election day.
The combined entity would be a clear fourth largest bloc by GDP in the world (after the US, EU, and China), second largest by area (after Russia), and vie with Germany as the world’s third largest exporter.
It would be the world’s third largest oil exporter and fifth largest gas exporter. Also the second largest movie producer and music producer.
This might even be fun to watch, if we don’t get trashed in the fallout.
Musk just lies.
Farage evidently is of the same ilk.
Canada is still largely North Atlantic leaning (Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal) in orientation.
Australia and NZ are Indo-Pacific powers.
Why not the other Commonwealth Realms too?
Yet.
pillsinjections (as is Trump according to some)?We all know they are current opinion, and opinions change and as many hope Labour may improve there is no real reason why they couldn't also go down further
The locals in May, and 2026 Senedd and Holyrood elections are round the corner and these are not promising polls for Labour to feel confident of performing well
And no doubt they provide a narrative for those considering betting on these elections
NB: he's forgotten to include Newfoundland.
Government approves plan for world’s largest chip complex in Yongin
Published : Dec. 26, 2024
https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10031572
India and South Africa have very different ambitions to us, I think. Singapore, Botswana, and Malaysia would be pretty close, IMHO.
There is a geopolitical logic in support of Anglo-Canada.
There is no longer any real logic in support of UK-Aus-NZ, and hasn’t been since the 1940s.
Culturally though New Zealand is closer to the UK than any other nation on earth
NZ is unlikely to join due to its long-standing anti-nuclear policy (also why ANZUS, an actual defence alliance, dissolved).
Also, once you involve the U.S. it is essentially US-run.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/dec/28/all-people-could-do-was-hope-the-nerds-would-fix-it-the-global-panic-over-the-millennium-bug-25-years-on
Interesting point in there that it was, for instance, missed in a NHS software for screening prenatal genetic problems.
Is that looking like a success to you?
At the actual election the Tories ended up with fewer than a third of that.
I am sure that it would provide great career opportunities for the graduates of our public schools.
You think tech bros rebelled against nativists in their coalition over H1Bs?
Just wait until the reaction from farmers and the agricultural lobby when they try to deport Mexican laborers.
Nativist ideals are always going to run into people acting in their own enlightened self-interest.
They seek to make you poor, and have to hide that fact, but reality keeps getting in the way...
https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1873039454941921436
Labour supporters are not slow in publishing polls showing Labour leads
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election#1979
Starmer made more net gains than Blair.
It was the split between Tories and Reform on the right that gave him a landslide, now Reform is taking Labour votes too
We roll the dice and hope we get lucky.
We did it! We tested 300 Bay Area foods for plastic chemicals. We found some interesting surprises.
Top 5 findings in our test results:
1. Our tests found plastic chemicals in 86% of all foods, with phthalates in 73% of the tested products and bisphenols in 22%. It's everywhere.
2. We detected phthalates in most baby foods and prenatal vitamins.
3. Hot foods which spend 45 minutes in takeout containers have 34% higher levels of plastic chemicals than the same dishes tested directly from the restaurant.
4. The 1950s Army rations we tested contained surprisingly high levels of plastic chemicals.
5. Almost every single one of the foods we tested are within both US FDA and EU EFSA regulations*...
https://x.com/natfriedman/status/1872728491290189944
*Which are likely inadequate.
Right now, the Starmer government looks a failure, and will probably look worse in July 2026 (the local elections that year will be hideous for Labour).
But, three years on, the position was transformed.
I wonder which it is.
Have you ever been to Australia and/or NZ
Has any PBer been?
Part of me genuinely wonders if Starmer is doing a form of cosplay where he thinks if he's making himself really unpopular 6 months in it's because he's doing the right thing and exercising good governance and the electorate will come round and he'll inevitably win a second term.
There's an awful lot of wishful thinking going on.
They can luxuriate in anti-nuclear ideology because they're comfortably shielded.
Has his luck run out? He seems to be carrying the curse of the monkey's paw at the moment, but he isn't done yet.
We shat that bed with our utterly piss-poor performance in defending Singapore, which I find shameful to this day.
The United Kingdom of the North Atlantic.
A man in a hot air balloon realised that he was lost. He reduced altitude and spotted a young woman walking a dog. He said “Excuse me, I am meant to be meeting a friend but I am completely lost. Can you tell me where I am?”
The young woman responded “You are in a hot air balloon hovering about 60 feet above the ground at latitude 40 degrees north and longitude 58 degrees west.”
The man responded “You must be in IT!”. “Well, yes I am” said the woman, “and you must be a management consultant.”
“That’s right” said the man “but how did you know that?” “Well,” the woman responded “you don’t know where you are or where you are going. You have risen to where you are, due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise which you have no idea how to keep, but expect people beneath you to solve your problems. The fact is that you are in exactly the same position now as when we met, but now, somehow, it’s my f****ing fault!”
Though I hate it, personally, I can sort of understand the geopolitical logic in India playing both sides. But morally they should have more sympathy with Western values, given their governance and constitution.
South Africa was more pro western under the apartheid regime than now but that regime obviously had no real legitimacy (and nowadays would likely have considered much of the west corrupted by wokeism anyway)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002692h
Things started to go south for them when they elected a new leader who the public could never take seriously as a potential PM, even though he tickled the activists' ideological tummies.
Let the reader understand.
The idea came to me after a friend - a Labour Party insider with an interest in foreign policy - asked me a few years ago how the UK could be “great again”.
An Anglo-Canadian community (I’m not using the word union), provides a third way for Britain outside of rejoining the EU and becoming an impoverished satellite of the U.S.
It does not preclude greater co-operation with either, indeed, in a way both are part of the same logic.
The community would start with stronger defence co-operation, a single market, and freedom of movement.
It would aim to connect the UK via the back door into NAFTA, and Canada similarly into the European single market.
It would allow for scaled Anglo-Canadian industry to compete better on the global market, and provide better energy security for the UK. It would provide greater strength for Canada against the US and rival powers (witness the recent India-Canada stoush).
It also “makes” the UK a more credible Pacific power.
The reason for bringing it back up is there has been some independent chatter about the idea online as a result of Trump’s suggestion the Canada dissolve itself into the U.S.
There's a reason I've enjoyed Miliband and how much he has wound people up. He appears to be only person who is up for taking on the naysayers and has the courage of his convictions - and even then, what he's doing isn't particularly radical at all.