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It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future… – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    On current polls.

    I'm not saying it will happen, but Labour have an irreducible core, which I don't think is as true of the Tories.
    A panic run from Tory to RefUK - both MPs and base - is quite possible.

    What would you do, if it was clearly your best chance of another conservative-ish government ?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,314

    Good morning, everyone. Still misty here; I wonder how much solar power has been generated locally this December by those with roof-top panels. Not a lot of wind, either.

    Congratulations to No Offence Alan and thanks to Benpointer; I'll try and sort myself out to enter the next competition, although as my forecast of the GE date would still be in the future, I'm not too confident. At the moment, too, my survival to 31/12/2025 has to be slightly doubtful.

    Our solar panels have performed poorly this December

    And the wind farm blades are barely turning today and for many days in December as well
    This is why we will still need some dispatchable thermal generation in a net zero future. DESNZ is funding gas-fired CCGT capacity with CCS, but in my view hydrogen or ammonia fuelled plant would be a better option.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,365
    On topic: I'll take a 62-9-10 W D L record (vs other competitors) for the competition. Or joint 11th / 82, if you prefer. 20 points on the economic numbers saved me from the midfield.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,870
    Dura_Ace said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    Good morning

    I think that is fairly realistic, and I for one am quite happy with Kemi and not concerned she has Farage threatening legal action, as it is very important to this conservative that the two parties are not seen as one identity

    There are many writing Kemi off , but they are not her audience and she has barely been in the job a few weeks

    I expect that as 2025 progresses the extremes of the Trump Presidency and Musk's financial backing for Farage will not play as well for either him or Reform, but also I cannot see a boost for Labour as the dire economic position post Reeves miscalculated budget manifests itself

    As long as Kemi retains the support of conservatives, [and she headed the last conhome table], then she will be OK

    I expect reform to do well in red seats in the locals but it looks as if labour are considering cancelling some of these locals which is bizarre

    Anyway, I may be a lone voice in support of Kemi, but I do think Farage and Reform during 2025 will face a difficult time with their support for Trump and Musk
    Occurs to me that if Musk goes full-on Reform/Farage backing with cash and twitter, when Trump falls out with Musk it's going to leave Farage in a tricky spot. On the one hand - lovely cash and hordes of Musk fanboys, on the other - a constant barrage from the loyal MAGA hordes.
    That won't be a problem at all as long as Farage continues the ritual obeisance toward DJT, which he surely will, then DJT won't give a fuck if Musk gives Farage money.

    We are probably underestimating how much Musk will weigh in on the next British GE and what a profound effect it will have. He saw how the flattery and money formula worked with DJT and he clearly liked both the process and the outcome so why wouldn't he put his man in No.10?
    I'm very much expecting it. Apparently we have a special place in Musk's heart as the "mothership of the English speaking peoples."

    Chest puffing out as I was typing there.
  • Good morning, everyone. Still misty here; I wonder how much solar power has been generated locally this December by those with roof-top panels. Not a lot of wind, either.

    Congratulations to No Offence Alan and thanks to Benpointer; I'll try and sort myself out to enter the next competition, although as my forecast of the GE date would still be in the future, I'm not too confident. At the moment, too, my survival to 31/12/2025 has to be slightly doubtful.

    Our solar panels have performed poorly this December

    And the wind farm blades are barely turning today and for many days in December as well
    This is why we will still need some dispatchable thermal generation in a net zero future. DESNZ is funding gas-fired CCGT capacity with CCS, but in my view hydrogen or ammonia fuelled plant would be a better option.
    It needs less dogma and more practical thinking and certainly tidal and hydrogen should be considered
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,308
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    What's Farage's record on previous legal actions, or threats thereof?

    He's all fart and no follow through.

    He threatened legal action against David Cameron when Dave rightly called UKIP 'fruitcakes and loonies - and closet racists mostly.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/apr/06/conservatives.politicalcolumnists
    That was one of Cameron's biggest misjudgements. Saying that, and the reported comments of Lord Feldman, did a huge amount to alienate his base.
    He was correct, though.
    No, he wasn't.

    It was his version of Hillary Clinton's deplorables.
    It was substantially correct but poor politics. You can't diss the voters.
    As Elon and Vivek are learning?
    Yes there's a tension there by the sounds of it. Question is, is the typical Maga voter actually expecting Trump to make them better off or do they mainly just enjoy his persona?
    I think the typical Trump voter is highly cynical and Trump both exploits and promotes that cynicism. These voters believe (wrongly in my view) it doesn't make any real difference who is in charge, so they will take the guy who panders to them.

    Apart from all the shittery, the key creature of MAGA is self indulgence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,927
    Cicero said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    Good morning

    I think that is fairly realistic, and I for one am quite happy with Kemi and not concerned she has Farage threatening legal action, as it is very important to this conservative that the two parties are not seen as one identity

    There are many writing Kemi off , but they are not her audience and she has barely been in the job a few weeks

    I expect that as 2025 progresses the extremes of the Trump Presidency and Musk's financial backing for Farage will not play as well for either him or Reform, but also I cannot see a boost for Labour as the dire economic position post Reeves miscalculated budget manifests itself

    As long as Kemi retains the support of conservatives, [and she headed the last conhome table], then she will be OK

    I expect reform to do well in red seats in the locals but it looks as if labour are considering cancelling some of these locals which is bizarre

    Anyway, I may be a lone voice in support of Kemi, but I do think Farage and Reform during 2025 will face a difficult time with their support for Trump and Musk
    Occurs to me that if Musk goes full-on Reform/Farage backing with cash and twitter, when Trump falls out with Musk it's going to leave Farage in a tricky spot. On the one hand - lovely cash and hordes of Musk fanboys, on the other - a constant barrage from the loyal MAGA hordes.
    Not to mention the contempt of those that think taking millions of dollars of foreign cash makes Farage at best disloyal ro Britain, and worst a treacherous %&*@. "What exactly is Musk buying?" is a question that needs to be made every single time the question is raised.
    If Farage goes with Musk, then he is selling out the UK to China.

    If he goes with Trump, then he is selling us out to Russia.

    Difficult one, eh?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,870

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    What's Farage's record on previous legal actions, or threats thereof?

    He's all fart and no follow through.

    He threatened legal action against David Cameron when Dave rightly called UKIP 'fruitcakes and loonies - and closet racists mostly.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/apr/06/conservatives.politicalcolumnists
    That was one of Cameron's biggest misjudgements. Saying that, and the reported comments of Lord Feldman, did a huge amount to alienate his base.
    He was correct, though.
    No, he wasn't.

    It was his version of Hillary Clinton's deplorables.
    It was substantially correct but poor politics. You can't diss the voters.
    As Elon and Vivek are learning?
    Yes there's a tension there by the sounds of it. Question is, is the typical Maga voter actually expecting Trump to make them better off or do they mainly just enjoy his persona?
    I think the former.
    I'm not so sure but if so his challenge is all the greater. Course he could get lucky. That does seem to be a theme.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,493

    Good morning, everyone. Still misty here; I wonder how much solar power has been generated locally this December by those with roof-top panels. Not a lot of wind, either.

    Congratulations to No Offence Alan and thanks to Benpointer; I'll try and sort myself out to enter the next competition, although as my forecast of the GE date would still be in the future, I'm not too confident. At the moment, too, my survival to 31/12/2025 has to be slightly doubtful.

    Our solar panels have performed poorly this December

    And the wind farm blades are barely turning today and for many days in December as well
    This is why we will still need some dispatchable thermal generation in a net zero future. DESNZ is funding gas-fired CCGT capacity with CCS, but in my view hydrogen or ammonia fuelled plant would be a better option.
    It needs less dogma and more practical thinking and certainly tidal and hydrogen should be considered
    I have carefully considered hydrogen, and my considered expert opinion is that it is bloody stupid and anybody who implements it should be torn apart by wolves. 😃
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,870

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    Quite often he spouts rubbish which is jumped on by a pack of crazed commentators saying 'SEEEEEEE!!' like this Greenland thing, and he does something completely different.
    Oh well that's great then. No-one has a clue what he's going to do until he does it. Excellent approach to the oval office.
  • viewcode said:

    Good morning, everyone. Still misty here; I wonder how much solar power has been generated locally this December by those with roof-top panels. Not a lot of wind, either.

    Congratulations to No Offence Alan and thanks to Benpointer; I'll try and sort myself out to enter the next competition, although as my forecast of the GE date would still be in the future, I'm not too confident. At the moment, too, my survival to 31/12/2025 has to be slightly doubtful.

    Our solar panels have performed poorly this December

    And the wind farm blades are barely turning today and for many days in December as well
    This is why we will still need some dispatchable thermal generation in a net zero future. DESNZ is funding gas-fired CCGT capacity with CCS, but in my view hydrogen or ammonia fuelled plant would be a better option.
    It needs less dogma and more practical thinking and certainly tidal and hydrogen should be considered
    I have carefully considered hydrogen, and my considered expert opinion is that it is bloody stupid and anybody who implements it should be torn apart by wolves. 😃
    I cannot understand why tidal hasn't been at the forefront of energy production not least because its constant and unobtrusive
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    Dura_Ace said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    Good morning

    I think that is fairly realistic, and I for one am quite happy with Kemi and not concerned she has Farage threatening legal action, as it is very important to this conservative that the two parties are not seen as one identity

    There are many writing Kemi off , but they are not her audience and she has barely been in the job a few weeks

    I expect that as 2025 progresses the extremes of the Trump Presidency and Musk's financial backing for Farage will not play as well for either him or Reform, but also I cannot see a boost for Labour as the dire economic position post Reeves miscalculated budget manifests itself

    As long as Kemi retains the support of conservatives, [and she headed the last conhome table], then she will be OK

    I expect reform to do well in red seats in the locals but it looks as if labour are considering cancelling some of these locals which is bizarre

    Anyway, I may be a lone voice in support of Kemi, but I do think Farage and Reform during 2025 will face a difficult time with their support for Trump and Musk
    Occurs to me that if Musk goes full-on Reform/Farage backing with cash and twitter, when Trump falls out with Musk it's going to leave Farage in a tricky spot. On the one hand - lovely cash and hordes of Musk fanboys, on the other - a constant barrage from the loyal MAGA hordes.
    That won't be a problem at all as long as Farage continues the ritual obeisance toward DJT, which he surely will, then DJT won't give a fuck if Musk gives Farage money.

    We are probably underestimating how much Musk will weigh in on the next British GE and what a profound effect it will have. He saw how the flattery and money formula worked with DJT and he clearly liked both the process and the outcome so why wouldn't he put his man in No.10?
    Those expecting Trump and Musk to fall out are quite possibly mistaken.

    The MAGA base, a large proportion of whom are relatively low earners, are due to be royally screwed by the administration's policies. A demonstration of the incoherence of the MAGA alliance is a greater threat to Reform than any falling out between Trump and Musk.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    viewcode said:

    Good morning, everyone. Still misty here; I wonder how much solar power has been generated locally this December by those with roof-top panels. Not a lot of wind, either.

    Congratulations to No Offence Alan and thanks to Benpointer; I'll try and sort myself out to enter the next competition, although as my forecast of the GE date would still be in the future, I'm not too confident. At the moment, too, my survival to 31/12/2025 has to be slightly doubtful.

    Our solar panels have performed poorly this December

    And the wind farm blades are barely turning today and for many days in December as well
    This is why we will still need some dispatchable thermal generation in a net zero future. DESNZ is funding gas-fired CCGT capacity with CCS, but in my view hydrogen or ammonia fuelled plant would be a better option.
    It needs less dogma and more practical thinking and certainly tidal and hydrogen should be considered
    I have carefully considered hydrogen, and my considered expert opinion is that it is bloody stupid and anybody who implements it should be torn apart by wolves. 😃
    Is that what Man United did?
  • Post Christmas greetings all.

    Many thanks to @Benpointer for the competition. What larks!!

    At least I got Trump right.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,145
    Well done to @No_Offence_Alan and thanks to @Benpointer for running it!!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,964
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    On current polls.

    I'm not saying it will happen, but Labour have an irreducible core, which I don't think is as true of the Tories.
    A panic run from Tory to RefUK - both MPs and base - is quite possible.

    What would you do, if it was clearly your best chance of another conservative-ish government ?
    At the moment the best way of predicting voters, parliament and government is to ask questions about perceived self interest (call it PSI for now).

    There is, I think, an irreducable core of voters for whom Labour are in their PSI as the only bastion of both the consumer and the producer aspects of the social democratic welfare state.

    I suspect the Tories have lost for now most of the automatic PSI vote, which they are sharing with/losing to Reform and others. In particular the Tories have lost their unique selling point of general competence on behalf of the middle and aspiring class.

    Questions for 2025 and beyond:
    Can Reform get the PSI vote, as being the only political outfit appealing to the popular vote (unlike LDs) who haven't failed.

    Is there a point where, say 20+ Tory MPs change the weather altogether by defecting together to Reform, because it is in their PSI to do so.

    Footnote: Musk's intervention makes no difference to most voters. PSI is what counts.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,308
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    What's Farage's record on previous legal actions, or threats thereof?

    He's all fart and no follow through.

    He threatened legal action against David Cameron when Dave rightly called UKIP 'fruitcakes and loonies - and closet racists mostly.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/apr/06/conservatives.politicalcolumnists
    That was one of Cameron's biggest misjudgements. Saying that, and the reported comments of Lord Feldman, did a huge amount to alienate his base.
    He was correct, though.
    No, he wasn't.

    It was his version of Hillary Clinton's deplorables.
    It was substantially correct but poor politics. You can't diss the voters.
    As Elon and Vivek are learning?
    Yes there's a tension there by the sounds of it. Question is, is the typical Maga voter actually expecting Trump to make them better off or do they mainly just enjoy his persona?
    I think the typical Trump voter is highly cynical and Trump both exploits and promotes that cynicism. These voters believe (wrongly in my view) it doesn't make any real difference who is in charge, so they will take the guy who panders to them.

    Apart from all the shittery, the key creature of MAGA is self indulgence.
    Or to put it another way, MAGA will choose Trump over Musk every time. Those who cared about ways to be better off voted Democrat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    On current polls.

    I'm not saying it will happen, but Labour have an irreducible core, which I don't think is as true of the Tories.
    A panic run from Tory to RefUK - both MPs and base - is quite possible.

    What would you do, if it was clearly your best chance of another conservative-ish government ?
    At the moment the best way of predicting voters, parliament and government is to ask questions about perceived self interest (call it PSI for now).

    There is, I think, an irreducable core of voters for whom Labour are in their PSI as the only bastion of both the consumer and the producer aspects of the social democratic welfare state.

    I suspect the Tories have lost for now most of the automatic PSI vote, which they are sharing with/losing to Reform and others. In particular the Tories have lost their unique selling point of general competence on behalf of the middle and aspiring class.

    Questions for 2025 and beyond:
    Can Reform get the PSI vote, as being the only political outfit appealing to the popular vote (unlike LDs) who haven't failed.

    Is there a point where, say 20+ Tory MPs change the weather altogether by defecting together to Reform, because it is in their PSI to do so.

    Footnote: Musk's intervention makes no difference to most voters. PSI is what counts.
    £100m of propaganda might make a significant difference to PSI.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    On current polls.

    I'm not saying it will happen, but Labour have an irreducible core, which I don't think is as true of the Tories.
    A panic run from Tory to RefUK - both MPs and base - is quite possible.

    What would you do, if it was clearly your best chance of another conservative-ish government ?
    At the moment the best way of predicting voters, parliament and government is to ask questions about perceived self interest (call it PSI for now).

    There is, I think, an irreducable core of voters for whom Labour are in their PSI as the only bastion of both the consumer and the producer aspects of the social democratic welfare state.

    I suspect the Tories have lost for now most of the automatic PSI vote, which they are sharing with/losing to Reform and others. In particular the Tories have lost their unique selling point of general competence on behalf of the middle and aspiring class.

    Questions for 2025 and beyond:
    Can Reform get the PSI vote, as being the only political outfit appealing to the popular vote (unlike LDs) who haven't failed.

    Is there a point where, say 20+ Tory MPs change the weather altogether by defecting together to Reform, because it is in their PSI to do so.

    Footnote: Musk's intervention makes no difference to most voters. PSI is what counts.
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    On current polls.

    I'm not saying it will happen, but Labour have an irreducible core, which I don't think is as true of the Tories.
    A panic run from Tory to RefUK - both MPs and base - is quite possible.

    What would you do, if it was clearly your best chance of another conservative-ish government ?
    At the moment the best way of predicting voters, parliament and government is to ask questions about perceived self interest (call it PSI for now).

    There is, I think, an irreducable core of voters for whom Labour are in their PSI as the only bastion of both the consumer and the producer aspects of the social democratic welfare state.

    I suspect the Tories have lost for now most of the automatic PSI vote, which they are sharing with/losing to Reform and others. In particular the Tories have lost their unique selling point of general competence on behalf of the middle and aspiring class.

    Questions for 2025 and beyond:
    Can Reform get the PSI vote, as being the only political outfit appealing to the popular vote (unlike LDs) who haven't failed.

    Is there a point where, say 20+ Tory MPs change the weather altogether by defecting together to Reform, because it is in their PSI to do so.

    Footnote: Musk's intervention makes no difference to most voters. PSI is what counts.
    Makes no difference to the SI.
    Can do to the P.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    edited December 2024
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    What's Farage's record on previous legal actions, or threats thereof?

    He's all fart and no follow through.

    He threatened legal action against David Cameron when Dave rightly called UKIP 'fruitcakes and loonies - and closet racists mostly.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/apr/06/conservatives.politicalcolumnists
    That was one of Cameron's biggest misjudgements. Saying that, and the reported comments of Lord Feldman, did a huge amount to alienate his base.
    He was correct, though.
    No, he wasn't.

    It was his version of Hillary Clinton's deplorables.
    It was substantially correct but poor politics. You can't diss the voters.
    As Elon and Vivek are learning?
    Yes there's a tension there by the sounds of it. Question is, is the typical Maga voter actually expecting Trump to make them better off or do they mainly just enjoy his persona?
    I think the typical Trump voter is highly cynical and Trump both exploits and promotes that cynicism. These voters believe (wrongly in my view) it doesn't make any real difference who is in charge, so they will take the guy who panders to them.

    Apart from all the shittery, the key creature of MAGA is self indulgence.
    Or to put it another way, MAGA will choose Trump over Musk every time. Those who cared about ways to be better off voted Democrat.
    But what if Trump chooses to stick with Musk ?

    A ritual sacrifice of Ramaswamy (who appears seriously deficient in political skills) would do the trick.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,870
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,319

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    She's very easily provoked.

    All other politicians will have noted this.
    Question is- can she do anything about that? Is it possible to coach that character flaw out of people... and will Kemi take that coaching?

    If not, she's toast.
    I dont think she can change.

    Its a question of whether she can channel her scrappiness into fights that she can win, rather than constant distractions.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,151
    edited December 2024
    An intervention from a former Director of both CIA and FBI, of the type which we do not see here, warning about Mr Trump's nominations, on the basis that one shows 'personal loyalty' not 'loyalty to the law', and the other has no intelligence experience whatsoever.

    A man called William Webster, who was Director of the FBI, and then the CIA, between 1978 and 1991m under both Carter and Reagan, and is now 100 years old. He had a position as chair of the Homeland Security Advisory Council until 2020.

    When was the last time we had an intervention from an eminent 100 year old?

    Writing to senators, Webster, who is aged 100 and who was appointed by both Democrat and Republican presidents, called on them to “weigh the critical importance of nonpartisan leadership and experience” and suggested that Patel and Gabbard possessed neither attribute.

    “The safety of the American people – and your own families – depends on it,” he wrote, emphasising the importance of Senate confirmation hearings that will scrutinise the two nominees.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/27/william-webster-kash-patel-tulsi-gabbard
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,053

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    Quite often he spouts rubbish which is jumped on by a pack of crazed commentators saying 'SEEEEEEE!!' like this Greenland thing, and he does something completely different.
    And do you think that’s a good thing? Do you think going on about Greenland like this has made the US or the world a better place?
    I think it was probably a classic Trump shakedown - Denmark was perhaps uming and ahing over a lucrative US defence contract, and now after Trump's guff about Greenland, they will sign. I don't approve of it or think it's a good thing, but those of us who adore the US and want everyone to spend money keeping its defence companies in plentiful employment should be delighted.

    Trump is all about the US balance of payments and their defence companies especially. He will do the same to us when it's our turn (he'll probably enjoy it especially because it's the loathed Starmer), but happily we will not be able to discern any difference, as we have always had the chequebook out with pen hovering where the US is concerned anyway.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,605
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    On current polls.

    I'm not saying it will happen, but Labour have an irreducible core, which I don't think is as true of the Tories.
    A panic run from Tory to RefUK - both MPs and base - is quite possible.

    What would you do, if it was clearly your best chance of another conservative-ish government ?
    The Labour core is probably 20%, the Conservative core probably 10%.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,731

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    Quite often he spouts rubbish which is jumped on by a pack of crazed commentators saying 'SEEEEEEE!!' like this Greenland thing, and he does something completely different.
    And do you think that’s a good thing? Do you think going on about Greenland like this has made the US or the world a better place?
    I think it was probably a classic Trump shakedown - Denmark was perhaps uming and ahing over a lucrative US defence contract, and now after Trump's guff about Greenland, they will sign. I don't approve of it or think it's a good thing, but those of us who adore the US and want everyone to spend money keeping its defence companies in plentiful employment should be delighted.

    Trump is all about the US balance of payments and their defence companies especially. He will do the same to us when it's our turn (he'll probably enjoy it especially because it's the loathed Starmer), but happily we will not be able to discern any difference, as we have always had the chequebook out with pen hovering where the US is concerned anyway.
    You’ve just made that up out of thin air. There is zero evidence of any such Danish-US defence contract.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,319
    edited December 2024
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
  • https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    Let's split the difference - give Greenland to Canada.
  • Blood yell! I actually won!?

    You did and well done
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,731
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,083
    edited December 2024
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    On current polls.

    I'm not saying it will happen, but Labour have an irreducible core, which I don't think is as true of the Tories.
    A panic run from Tory to RefUK - both MPs and base - is quite possible.

    What would you do, if it was clearly your best chance of another conservative-ish government ?
    The Labour core is probably 20%, the Conservative core probably 10%.
    I think both those are low, particularly the Conservatives. I suspect even if Labour and the Conservatives unravel into Reform the Conservatives retain at least 20%.

    Labour of course could implode completely with voters exiting to Green, LD, Reform, Con and Corbyn/Islam. Under that scenario Labour are more likely on ten percent. But I can't see it - yet.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It’s funny. Assad would probably have led an entirely uneventful life, as an eye-doctor in the UK, had his brother not died in a car crash.
    So what turned him to the Dark Side?
    I think Frank Herbert was wrong, and Hannah Arendt and Christopher Browning were right.

    Evil leaders are very rarely dark messiahs; they're ordinary men (and sometimes women), who quite suddenly find themselves in a position to do great harm, for their own gain, and they rationalise it to themselves. No doubt Assad persuaded himself that he was trying to make things better, when he took over from his father, and each act of cruelty was a necessary evil/for the greater good. And, of course, he found himself in charge of a multi-million pound property portfolio.
    And of course many of Assad's foes were, from his point of view, also the bad guys being bombed by Britain and America and Israel. It is not like he had an irrational hatred of librarians. The Middle East is complicated.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,605
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I could see them ruling that "The Will of the President has the force of law."
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,083
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    The insanity of the judgement that President Trump is beyond any reproach suggests the SC can bend interpretation however they desire. The Founding Fathers never anticipated Trump.

  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,108

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
    Majority Dem committee thinks majority Rep SCOTUS has an "ethical crisis"?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,731
    Driver said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
    Majority Dem committee thinks majority Rep SCOTUS has an "ethical crisis"?
    They provide evidence. It’s all detailed in the report.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,870
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    The SC looks dodgy to me but I do place some store in ACB. I'd hope she wouldn't completely disgrace her robes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    Quite often he spouts rubbish which is jumped on by a pack of crazed commentators saying 'SEEEEEEE!!' like this Greenland thing, and he does something completely different.
    And do you think that’s a good thing? Do you think going on about Greenland like this has made the US or the world a better place?
    I think it was probably a classic Trump shakedown - Denmark was perhaps uming and ahing over a lucrative US defence contract, and now after Trump's guff about Greenland, they will sign. I don't approve of it or think it's a good thing, but those of us who adore the US and want everyone to spend money keeping its defence companies in plentiful employment should be delighted.

    Trump is all about the US balance of payments and their defence companies especially. He will do the same to us when it's our turn (he'll probably enjoy it especially because it's the loathed Starmer), but happily we will not be able to discern any difference, as we have always had the chequebook out with pen hovering where the US is concerned anyway.
    You’ve just made that up out of thin air. There is zero evidence of any such Danish-US defence contract.
    Big recent orders have been with Rheinmetal and BAE's Swedish subsidiary.

    Denmark bought the F35, of course. In 2017.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,108

    Driver said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
    Majority Dem committee thinks majority Rep SCOTUS has an "ethical crisis"?
    They provide evidence. It’s all detailed in the report.
    I'm certain that they found things they could portray in such a way as to support the conclusion they started from, yes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,319

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    The insanity of the judgement that President Trump is beyond any reproach suggests the SC can bend interpretation however they desire. The Founding Fathers never anticipated Trump.

    On the contrary, the Constitution was specifically written in anticipation of potential tyrants.

    The question is whether they are willing to enforce its meausures.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,151
    edited December 2024
    ..
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,517
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    Quite often he spouts rubbish which is jumped on by a pack of crazed commentators saying 'SEEEEEEE!!' like this Greenland thing, and he does something completely different.
    And do you think that’s a good thing? Do you think going on about Greenland like this has made the US or the world a better place?
    I think it was probably a classic Trump shakedown - Denmark was perhaps uming and ahing over a lucrative US defence contract, and now after Trump's guff about Greenland, they will sign. I don't approve of it or think it's a good thing, but those of us who adore the US and want everyone to spend money keeping its defence companies in plentiful employment should be delighted.

    Trump is all about the US balance of payments and their defence companies especially. He will do the same to us when it's our turn (he'll probably enjoy it especially because it's the loathed Starmer), but happily we will not be able to discern any difference, as we have always had the chequebook out with pen hovering where the US is concerned anyway.
    You’ve just made that up out of thin air. There is zero evidence of any such Danish-US defence contract.
    Big recent orders have been with Rheinmetal and BAE's Swedish subsidiary.

    Denmark bought the F35, of course. In 2017.
    F35 is the standard successor to the F16, which is what Denmark had, previously.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,314

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    Let's split the difference - give Greenland to Canada.
    Denmark needs to send troops to defend Greenland's land border with Canada.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,108

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
    Majority Dem committee thinks majority Rep SCOTUS has an "ethical crisis"?
    They provide evidence. It’s all detailed in the report.
    I'm certain that they found things they could portray in such a way as to support the conclusion they started from, yes.
    Here’s the summary:

    [big block of text completely missing my point]

    Which of these are misleading or wrong?
    Well, congratulations on spectacularly missing my point.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,967
    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    Anyone who supports or sanewashes Trump is a berk. It's not worth arguing the toss with these idiots.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,517
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    The insanity of the judgement that President Trump is beyond any reproach suggests the SC can bend interpretation however they desire. The Founding Fathers never anticipated Trump.

    On the contrary, the Constitution was specifically written in anticipation of potential tyrants.

    The question is whether they are willing to enforce its meausures.
    And they had Aaron Burr to deal with, early on.

    A bit later, there was a bit of unpleasantness regarding “Little Aleck” and “Little Jeff”
  • Thank you to @Benpointer for running the competition.
    It was also nice to see some familiar names among the entrants who maybe don't post as much as they used to, but still lurk?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,731
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
    Majority Dem committee thinks majority Rep SCOTUS has an "ethical crisis"?
    They provide evidence. It’s all detailed in the report.
    I'm certain that they found things they could portray in such a way as to support the conclusion they started from, yes.
    Here’s the summary:

    [big block of text completely missing my point]

    Which of these are misleading or wrong?
    Well, congratulations on spectacularly missing my point.
    You keep repeating the same assertion, but you don’t provide any evidence, you don’t specify any examples. Can you point to an error in the report? It appears not.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,151
    edited December 2024
    Pulpstar said:

    Good morning, everyone. Still misty here; I wonder how much solar power has been generated locally this December by those with roof-top panels. Not a lot of wind, either.

    Congratulations to No Offence Alan and thanks to Benpointer; I'll try and sort myself out to enter the next competition, although as my forecast of the GE date would still be in the future, I'm not too confident. At the moment, too, my survival to 31/12/2025 has to be slightly doubtful.

    65.9 kWh on a 4 kWh system for December so far. Last year was 78.9, 2022 135.5 kwh
    That reminded me to run my numbers for the whole year - usage and specific usage accuracy is probably under by about 600 kWh or 10%, due to missing gas data from Jan 2024.

    The one I notice below is the low gas usage. It is a 195 sqm house with an EPC of C74 without the solar panels or changes since I moved in taken into account (they would make it at least borderline A/B 91/92 imo).

    That gives me a metric before adding in the missing data of 34 kWh of energy imported per sqm per year for 2024, or 38 with it included - which I'm very happy with. I don't think I can quite achieve financial breakeven with this setup at current prices but next year I get the benefit of a panel deep clean and next door having crown lifted the shading trees in October.

    Gas imported plus Standing Charge Jan - Dec 2024: £343.87 * = 4049 kWh
    Elec imported plus Standing Charge Jan - Dec 2024: £851.62 = 2620 kWh

    Elec Exported - 2130 kWh. (Note this is exported not generated; there is also solar generated self-use on top to get the generated number.)

    Payments made: approx £1260
    Payments received from Octopus: £0.15 per unit exported = £319.50

    I'll also get a FIT payment at a rate of = £0.1849 / kWh generated **. That's likely to be around £600-700.

    * I reckon that gas number is £67 or 10% under, as the analysis has a zero number for Jan 24.

    ** As others have commented, this is low compared to recent years. Here this is partly because I have pivoted to electric for most heating this year, which has reduced gas usage by several hundred, partly down to weather.

    The FIT rate is for a (E/W facing, partly shaded, needs a clean) 10 kWp solar install, at March 2015 install Higher rate (ie EPC higher than a D) of 18.49p per kWh generated.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,108
    edited December 2024

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
    Majority Dem committee thinks majority Rep SCOTUS has an "ethical crisis"?
    They provide evidence. It’s all detailed in the report.
    I'm certain that they found things they could portray in such a way as to support the conclusion they started from, yes.
    Here’s the summary:

    [big block of text completely missing my point]

    Which of these are misleading or wrong?
    Well, congratulations on spectacularly missing my point.
    You keep repeating the same assertion, but you don’t provide any evidence, you don’t specify any examples. Can you point to an error in the report? It appears not.
    The error is yours - by portraying a partisan hit job as in any way worthy of consideration.

    Maybe there is an "ethical crisis" in SCOTUS. If there is, a Democrat-majority committee that the public has just voted out of office which assumes the worst from the beginning isn't going to find it.

    Or, in short: "Dems say GOP bad" is "well, duh".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    Putin apologises to Azerbaijan re plane crash.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,731
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
    Majority Dem committee thinks majority Rep SCOTUS has an "ethical crisis"?
    They provide evidence. It’s all detailed in the report.
    I'm certain that they found things they could portray in such a way as to support the conclusion they started from, yes.
    Here’s the summary:

    [big block of text completely missing my point]

    Which of these are misleading or wrong?
    Well, congratulations on spectacularly missing my point.
    You keep repeating the same assertion, but you don’t provide any evidence, you don’t specify any examples. Can you point to an error in the report? It appears not.
    The error is yours - by portraying a partisan hit job as in any way worthy of consideration.

    Maybe there is an "ethical crisis" in SCOTUS. If there is, a Democrat-majority committee that the public has just voted out of office which assumes the worst from the beginning isn't going to find it.

    Or, in short: "Dems say GOP bad" is "well, duh".
    Does it not matter that Justice Scalia accepted lavish gifts from billionaires and others with business before the Court for more than a decade, in violation of federal law, including 258 personal trips, dozens of which were never disclosed? Does it not matter that Justice Thomas chose to ignore legal obligations to disclose lavish gifts after media scrutiny over his disclosures in 2004, in violation of federal law? Does it not matter that Justice Alito misused the “personal hospitality exemption” when he did not disclose gifts of transportation and lodging he received for a luxury fishing trip to Alaska in 2008, in violation of federal law?

    The actions of these Supreme Court Justices are the same whether they are pointed out by Democrats or Republicans.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,605
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
    Majority Dem committee thinks majority Rep SCOTUS has an "ethical crisis"?
    They provide evidence. It’s all detailed in the report.
    I'm certain that they found things they could portray in such a way as to support the conclusion they started from, yes.
    Here’s the summary:

    [big block of text completely missing my point]

    Which of these are misleading or wrong?
    Well, congratulations on spectacularly missing my point.
    You keep repeating the same assertion, but you don’t provide any evidence, you don’t specify any examples. Can you point to an error in the report? It appears not.
    The error is yours - by portraying a partisan hit job as in any way worthy of consideration.

    Maybe there is an "ethical crisis" in SCOTUS. If there is, a Democrat-majority committee that the public has just voted out of office which assumes the worst from the beginning isn't going to find it.

    Or, in short: "Dems say GOP bad" is "well, duh".
    It’s hard to see the behaviour of Justices Alito and Thomas as not being highly improper, on the part of judges. That’s not a matter of partisanship.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,551
    Sean_F said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
    Majority Dem committee thinks majority Rep SCOTUS has an "ethical crisis"?
    They provide evidence. It’s all detailed in the report.
    I'm certain that they found things they could portray in such a way as to support the conclusion they started from, yes.
    Here’s the summary:

    [big block of text completely missing my point]

    Which of these are misleading or wrong?
    Well, congratulations on spectacularly missing my point.
    You keep repeating the same assertion, but you don’t provide any evidence, you don’t specify any examples. Can you point to an error in the report? It appears not.
    The error is yours - by portraying a partisan hit job as in any way worthy of consideration.

    Maybe there is an "ethical crisis" in SCOTUS. If there is, a Democrat-majority committee that the public has just voted out of office which assumes the worst from the beginning isn't going to find it.

    Or, in short: "Dems say GOP bad" is "well, duh".
    It’s hard to see the behaviour of Justices Alito and Thomas as not being highly improper, on the part of judges. That’s not a matter of partisanship.
    don't be surprised if they decide to stand down in the next two years to allow the GOP senate chance to approve suitable younger replacements
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,151
    edited December 2024
    Cyclefree said:

    Heavy rain forecast for later. So the sheep which graze on the marsh lands were being moved to higher ground this morning.



    This is what passes for a traffic jam round here.

    A few weeks ago we had roast leg of lamb from one of the lambs in this flock.

    That one in the middle has a peg-leg - Lamb John Silver !
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,011
    edited December 2024

    Good morning, everyone. Still misty here; I wonder how much solar power has been generated locally this December by those with roof-top panels. Not a lot of wind, either.

    Congratulations to No Offence Alan and thanks to Benpointer; I'll try and sort myself out to enter the next competition, although as my forecast of the GE date would still be in the future, I'm not too confident. At the moment, too, my survival to 31/12/2025 has to be slightly doubtful.

    Our solar panels have performed poorly this December

    And the wind farm blades are barely turning today and for many days in December as well
    This is why we will still need some dispatchable thermal generation in a net zero future. DESNZ is funding gas-fired CCGT capacity with CCS, but in my view hydrogen or ammonia fuelled plant would be a better option.
    It needs less dogma and more practical thinking and certainly tidal and hydrogen should be considered
    You'll be delighted to find that CCGT capacity will be maintained at current levels well into the 2030s, and still be used into the 2050s and beyond.

    I'm not sure my mental health could withstand getting all my news from the Telegraph. Must be absolutely terrifying.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,525
    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,577
    https://www.theguardian.com/global/2024/dec/28/wells-cathedral-somerset-vicars-close-uk-historic-street-restoration

    Wells Cathedral appealing to refurbish/restore its street of choral houses - a lovely gem together with the Chapter House and staircase from the transept (and the Cathedral and Cloister as a whole too obvs).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,319
    There must be quite a labour shortage in Russia in order to need to import African migrants.

    https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3leeftjjnds2f
  • https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,064
    Wikipedia has a list of US elections in 2025, of which the most important are the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_elections

    There is also the possibility that the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in special elections. Right now, I would see the chances of that happening as at least 1 in 100. (The 1930 precedent is worth a quick look, for anyone interested in that possibility.)

    (I am most interested in the election for King County executive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_King_County,_Washington_Executive_election )
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,517
    Space News

    Blue Origin have completed their static fire and got a launch license for New Glenn
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,517

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
    Majority Dem committee thinks majority Rep SCOTUS has an "ethical crisis"?
    They provide evidence. It’s all detailed in the report.
    I'm certain that they found things they could portray in such a way as to support the conclusion they started from, yes.
    Here’s the summary:

    [big block of text completely missing my point]

    Which of these are misleading or wrong?
    Well, congratulations on spectacularly missing my point.
    You keep repeating the same assertion, but you don’t provide any evidence, you don’t specify any examples. Can you point to an error in the report? It appears not.
    The error is yours - by portraying a partisan hit job as in any way worthy of consideration.

    Maybe there is an "ethical crisis" in SCOTUS. If there is, a Democrat-majority committee that the public has just voted out of office which assumes the worst from the beginning isn't going to find it.

    Or, in short: "Dems say GOP bad" is "well, duh".
    Does it not matter that Justice Scalia accepted lavish gifts from billionaires and others with business before the Court for more than a decade, in violation of federal law, including 258 personal trips, dozens of which were never disclosed? Does it not matter that Justice Thomas chose to ignore legal obligations to disclose lavish gifts after media scrutiny over his disclosures in 2004, in violation of federal law? Does it not matter that Justice Alito misused the “personal hospitality exemption” when he did not disclose gifts of transportation and lodging he received for a luxury fishing trip to Alaska in 2008, in violation of federal law?

    The actions of these Supreme Court Justices are the same whether they are pointed out by Democrats or Republicans.
    The problem is institutionalised corruption in American politics. All the very best and nicest politicians end up millionaires. Look at the share options stuff.

    So when Trump and chums do their stuff - which is far, far worse - they can say that it is unfair to talk about it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,731
    Cyclefree said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.
    It's not the job of regulators to do this. Did no-one in Labour do any thinking at all while in opposition?
    It is a foundation of politics to the right of the centre that regulation impedes growth, so presumably looking at what regulators do (or don't do) should be relevant to a growth agenda. If you're going to make changes in this area, then it makes sense to get input first from the regulators. So, I don't see what's so terrible about this.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,193
    MattW said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Heavy rain forecast for later. So the sheep which graze on the marsh lands were being moved to higher ground this morning.



    This is what passes for a traffic jam round here.

    A few weeks ago we had roast leg of lamb from one of the lambs in this flock.

    That one in the middle has a peg-leg - Lamb John Silver !
    We Cumbrians never eat a sheep in one sitting.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,151
    Cyclefree said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.
    It's not the job of regulators to do this. Did no-one in Labour do any thinking at all while in opposition?
    It seems to me to be quite in order to ask regulators how regulation can be improved; they are the ones who are closest to their industries or sectors.

    And it seems that it is in the remit:

    Most of Britain's economic regulators already have a Growth Duty enshrined in their statute, having come into effect in March 2017 under the Deregulation Act of two years earlier.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,995
    Cyclefree said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.
    It's not the job of regulators to do this. Did no-one in Labour do any thinking at all while in opposition?
    If God had intended politicians to think, He would have given them brains.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,710

    Sean_F said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It’s funny. Assad would probably have led an entirely uneventful life, as an eye-doctor in the UK, had his brother not died in a car crash.
    So what turned him to the Dark Side?
    I know f-all about him. so I don't know if he was a 'good' person beforehand. But I guess the system he was working within would not have helped. His father was an atrocious dictator, and the system of government he inherited would have been built to handle citizens and events in a certain way. The path of least resistance was to continue his father's regime pretty much as it was. And it worked for a little over a decade.
    The really scary version: would we be any different?

    Of course, we'd all like to think we would be, but would we?
    The way you've been raised might count for a great deal. I can imagine that he was raised somewhat in the lap of luxury; with the idea that his family are the rightful rulers of Syria. If we are raised in a different, but moderate, environment, then we might see things differently.

    But even if we did see things differently, changing things is a different matter. The way places like Syria - or Russia - work is that the top remains in power because those immediately below him also have power and very good incomes. Changing things might imperil that, and therefore change becomes somewhat more difficult. A dictatorship isn't just one person at the top; it's the pyramid of power beneath. Many of whom will not be familiar names.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,151
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    Good morning

    I think that is fairly realistic, and I for one am quite happy with Kemi and not concerned she has Farage threatening legal action, as it is very important to this conservative that the two parties are not seen as one identity

    There are many writing Kemi off , but they are not her audience and she has barely been in the job a few weeks

    I expect that as 2025 progresses the extremes of the Trump Presidency and Musk's financial backing for Farage will not play as well for either him or Reform, but also I cannot see a boost for Labour as the dire economic position post Reeves miscalculated budget manifests itself

    As long as Kemi retains the support of conservatives, [and she headed the last conhome table], then she will be OK

    I expect reform to do well in red seats in the locals but it looks as if labour are considering cancelling some of these locals which is bizarre

    Anyway, I may be a lone voice in support of Kemi, but I do think Farage and Reform during 2025 will face a difficult time with their support for Trump and Musk
    Occurs to me that if Musk goes full-on Reform/Farage backing with cash and twitter, when Trump falls out with Musk it's going to leave Farage in a tricky spot. On the one hand - lovely cash and hordes of Musk fanboys, on the other - a constant barrage from the loyal MAGA hordes.
    That won't be a problem at all as long as Farage continues the ritual obeisance toward DJT, which he surely will, then DJT won't give a fuck if Musk gives Farage money.

    We are probably underestimating how much Musk will weigh in on the next British GE and what a profound effect it will have. He saw how the flattery and money formula worked with DJT and he clearly liked both the process and the outcome so why wouldn't he put his man in No.10?
    I'm very much expecting it. Apparently we have a special place in Musk's heart as the "mothership of the English speaking peoples."

    Chest puffing out as I was typing there.
    I fee left out; no one in Europe has had a threat of invasion yet.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,053

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    Quite often he spouts rubbish which is jumped on by a pack of crazed commentators saying 'SEEEEEEE!!' like this Greenland thing, and he does something completely different.
    And do you think that’s a good thing? Do you think going on about Greenland like this has made the US or the world a better place?
    I think it was probably a classic Trump shakedown - Denmark was perhaps uming and ahing over a lucrative US defence contract, and now after Trump's guff about Greenland, they will sign. I don't approve of it or think it's a good thing, but those of us who adore the US and want everyone to spend money keeping its defence companies in plentiful employment should be delighted.

    Trump is all about the US balance of payments and their defence companies especially. He will do the same to us when it's our turn (he'll probably enjoy it especially because it's the loathed Starmer), but happily we will not be able to discern any difference, as we have always had the chequebook out with pen hovering where the US is concerned anyway.
    You’ve just made that up out of thin air. There is zero evidence of any such Danish-US defence contract.
    Yes, I have made it up, as I clearly state when I use the word 'perhaps'.

    However, I doubt it's far from the truth. Wasn't the new runway they have promised to build designed for F16s (or similar, I don’t know the makes)? Perhaps they will need a couple of F16s to go on them. Either way, I strongly suspect a large portion of that £1.5bn in Greenland defence spending will be tinkling into US coffers, so Trump will be happy. And everyone else will read it as 'humiliated Trump backs down on Greenland threats'.
  • spudgfsh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    The loon himself has even noticed.

    Trump marvels at embrace by CEOs, top tech bosses: ‘Everybody wants to be my friend!’
    https://thehill.com/business/5054083-trump-embrace-ceos-friends/
    He certainly has. Which only puffs him up even more. This is uncharted territory for a mature western democracy, becoming the toy of an ageing despot, and unfortunately it's the biggest wealthiest most powerful one. I hope the checks and balances are resting up and eating well because they're about to face a hell of a battle.
    It will be a real test of the Constitution.

    Part of America's political sclerosis is down the rigidities of the US Constitution, which has almost Holy Writ in US minds.

    In particular, I think the Supreme Court will be a check on Trumps power. Theres only so far that they can bend interpretation.
    I don’t see much reason to be hopeful that the Supreme Court will be some bulwark of common sense. Has everyone read https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-releases-revealing-investigative-report-on-ethical-crisis-at-the-supreme-court ?
    Majority Dem committee thinks majority Rep SCOTUS has an "ethical crisis"?
    They provide evidence. It’s all detailed in the report.
    I'm certain that they found things they could portray in such a way as to support the conclusion they started from, yes.
    Here’s the summary:

    [big block of text completely missing my point]

    Which of these are misleading or wrong?
    Well, congratulations on spectacularly missing my point.
    You keep repeating the same assertion, but you don’t provide any evidence, you don’t specify any examples. Can you point to an error in the report? It appears not.
    The error is yours - by portraying a partisan hit job as in any way worthy of consideration.

    Maybe there is an "ethical crisis" in SCOTUS. If there is, a Democrat-majority committee that the public has just voted out of office which assumes the worst from the beginning isn't going to find it.

    Or, in short: "Dems say GOP bad" is "well, duh".
    It’s hard to see the behaviour of Justices Alito and Thomas as not being highly improper, on the part of judges. That’s not a matter of partisanship.
    don't be surprised if they decide to stand down in the next two years to allow the GOP senate chance to approve suitable younger replacements
    This is why charges of partisanship miss the point. Even if one or more justices are forced out over brown envelopes, their replacements will be appointed by a Republican President, ratified by a Republican Senate.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,319

    Cyclefree said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.
    It's not the job of regulators to do this. Did no-one in Labour do any thinking at all while in opposition?
    It is a foundation of politics to the right of the centre that regulation impedes growth, so presumably looking at what regulators do (or don't do) should be relevant to a growth agenda. If you're going to make changes in this area, then it makes sense to get input first from the regulators. So, I don't see what's so terrible about this.
    Similarly every year my department has to come up with 4% savings as part of the "Cost Improvement Programme" each year.

    Asking bodies to look at what they are doing and considering savings and efficiencies is pretty standard management practice.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,064
    As for the Greenland and Panama talk, consider the possibility that it may be -- in part -- intended to disguise this: "For a guy who hates to exercise, President-elect Donald Trump has been uncharacteristically active over the past few weeks. His fitness regimen: a grueling circuit of backpedals, climbdowns and walkbacks." He has already, Dana Milbank claims, abandoned most of his campaign promises.
    source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/12/27/trump-backtracking-campaign-promises/

    (Milbank is a Democratic partisan but does live, mostly, in the real world.)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,053

    Cyclefree said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.
    It's not the job of regulators to do this. Did no-one in Labour do any thinking at all while in opposition?
    It is a foundation of politics to the right of the centre that regulation impedes growth, so presumably looking at what regulators do (or don't do) should be relevant to a growth agenda. If you're going to make changes in this area, then it makes sense to get input first from the regulators. So, I don't see what's so terrible about this.
    I think they're asking the wrong people, but at least they're asking someone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,319
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    Good morning

    I think that is fairly realistic, and I for one am quite happy with Kemi and not concerned she has Farage threatening legal action, as it is very important to this conservative that the two parties are not seen as one identity

    There are many writing Kemi off , but they are not her audience and she has barely been in the job a few weeks

    I expect that as 2025 progresses the extremes of the Trump Presidency and Musk's financial backing for Farage will not play as well for either him or Reform, but also I cannot see a boost for Labour as the dire economic position post Reeves miscalculated budget manifests itself

    As long as Kemi retains the support of conservatives, [and she headed the last conhome table], then she will be OK

    I expect reform to do well in red seats in the locals but it looks as if labour are considering cancelling some of these locals which is bizarre

    Anyway, I may be a lone voice in support of Kemi, but I do think Farage and Reform during 2025 will face a difficult time with their support for Trump and Musk
    Occurs to me that if Musk goes full-on Reform/Farage backing with cash and twitter, when Trump falls out with Musk it's going to leave Farage in a tricky spot. On the one hand - lovely cash and hordes of Musk fanboys, on the other - a constant barrage from the loyal MAGA hordes.
    That won't be a problem at all as long as Farage continues the ritual obeisance toward DJT, which he surely will, then DJT won't give a fuck if Musk gives Farage money.

    We are probably underestimating how much Musk will weigh in on the next British GE and what a profound effect it will have. He saw how the flattery and money formula worked with DJT and he clearly liked both the process and the outcome so why wouldn't he put his man in No.10?
    I'm very much expecting it. Apparently we have a special place in Musk's heart as the "mothership of the English speaking peoples."

    Chest puffing out as I was typing there.
    I fee left out; no one in Europe has had a threat of invasion yet.
    Trump has outsourced that to Putin and the North Koreans.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,525
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.
    It's not the job of regulators to do this. Did no-one in Labour do any thinking at all while in opposition?
    It is a foundation of politics to the right of the centre that regulation impedes growth, so presumably looking at what regulators do (or don't do) should be relevant to a growth agenda. If you're going to make changes in this area, then it makes sense to get input first from the regulators. So, I don't see what's so terrible about this.
    Similarly every year my department has to come up with 4% savings as part of the "Cost Improvement Programme" each year.

    Asking bodies to look at what they are doing and considering savings and efficiencies is pretty standard management practice.
    The head of the FCA was previously the Private Secretary to Blair and Brown and then worked for the Treasury under Cameron and Osborne. Is that the best person to ask for fresh ideas on growth?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,525
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    Good morning

    I think that is fairly realistic, and I for one am quite happy with Kemi and not concerned she has Farage threatening legal action, as it is very important to this conservative that the two parties are not seen as one identity

    There are many writing Kemi off , but they are not her audience and she has barely been in the job a few weeks

    I expect that as 2025 progresses the extremes of the Trump Presidency and Musk's financial backing for Farage will not play as well for either him or Reform, but also I cannot see a boost for Labour as the dire economic position post Reeves miscalculated budget manifests itself

    As long as Kemi retains the support of conservatives, [and she headed the last conhome table], then she will be OK

    I expect reform to do well in red seats in the locals but it looks as if labour are considering cancelling some of these locals which is bizarre

    Anyway, I may be a lone voice in support of Kemi, but I do think Farage and Reform during 2025 will face a difficult time with their support for Trump and Musk
    Occurs to me that if Musk goes full-on Reform/Farage backing with cash and twitter, when Trump falls out with Musk it's going to leave Farage in a tricky spot. On the one hand - lovely cash and hordes of Musk fanboys, on the other - a constant barrage from the loyal MAGA hordes.
    That won't be a problem at all as long as Farage continues the ritual obeisance toward DJT, which he surely will, then DJT won't give a fuck if Musk gives Farage money.

    We are probably underestimating how much Musk will weigh in on the next British GE and what a profound effect it will have. He saw how the flattery and money formula worked with DJT and he clearly liked both the process and the outcome so why wouldn't he put his man in No.10?
    I'm very much expecting it. Apparently we have a special place in Musk's heart as the "mothership of the English speaking peoples."

    Chest puffing out as I was typing there.
    I fee left out; no one in Europe has had a threat of invasion yet.
    Trump has outsourced that to Putin and the North Koreans.
    Maybe he should invite Ukraine to become an American state.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,053

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    Good morning

    I think that is fairly realistic, and I for one am quite happy with Kemi and not concerned she has Farage threatening legal action, as it is very important to this conservative that the two parties are not seen as one identity

    There are many writing Kemi off , but they are not her audience and she has barely been in the job a few weeks

    I expect that as 2025 progresses the extremes of the Trump Presidency and Musk's financial backing for Farage will not play as well for either him or Reform, but also I cannot see a boost for Labour as the dire economic position post Reeves miscalculated budget manifests itself

    As long as Kemi retains the support of conservatives, [and she headed the last conhome table], then she will be OK

    I expect reform to do well in red seats in the locals but it looks as if labour are considering cancelling some of these locals which is bizarre

    Anyway, I may be a lone voice in support of Kemi, but I do think Farage and Reform during 2025 will face a difficult time with their support for Trump and Musk
    Occurs to me that if Musk goes full-on Reform/Farage backing with cash and twitter, when Trump falls out with Musk it's going to leave Farage in a tricky spot. On the one hand - lovely cash and hordes of Musk fanboys, on the other - a constant barrage from the loyal MAGA hordes.
    That won't be a problem at all as long as Farage continues the ritual obeisance toward DJT, which he surely will, then DJT won't give a fuck if Musk gives Farage money.

    We are probably underestimating how much Musk will weigh in on the next British GE and what a profound effect it will have. He saw how the flattery and money formula worked with DJT and he clearly liked both the process and the outcome so why wouldn't he put his man in No.10?
    I'm very much expecting it. Apparently we have a special place in Musk's heart as the "mothership of the English speaking peoples."

    Chest puffing out as I was typing there.
    I fee left out; no one in Europe has had a threat of invasion yet.
    Trump has outsourced that to Putin and the North Koreans.
    Maybe he should invite Ukraine to become an American state.
    We were talking about the UK becoming a US state the other day - @Leon I think was in favour. Whilst I could never be in favour as a patriot, I recognise that we would probably have more rights and powers against the Federal Government than we currently do in that situation, and they more responsibilities toward us.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    Some of the last places I’d be seeking ideas.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.
    It's not the job of regulators to do this. Did no-one in Labour do any thinking at all while in opposition?
    It is a foundation of politics to the right of the centre that regulation impedes growth, so presumably looking at what regulators do (or don't do) should be relevant to a growth agenda. If you're going to make changes in this area, then it makes sense to get input first from the regulators. So, I don't see what's so terrible about this.
    Similarly every year my department has to come up with 4% savings as part of the "Cost Improvement Programme" each year.

    Asking bodies to look at what they are doing and considering savings and efficiencies is pretty standard management practice.
    Sure, but this is about ideas for growth, not cost cutting.

    An example in your bailiwick might be the NHS setting up a nationwide clinical trials system, and the regulator looking at ways to make clinical trials easier to implement ?
    The potential for both patient benefit, and the U.K. life science industry, if this were done well, could be huge.
  • TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It’s funny. Assad would probably have led an entirely uneventful life, as an eye-doctor in the UK, had his brother not died in a car crash.
    Last time I was in hospital, with multiple broken ribs, the surgeon who assessed me was Syrian. He had that rather handsome, aristocratic bearing you get in some Levantine Arabs. I assume it was less stressful working the A&E late shift at Lewisham hospital than dealing with the aftermath of regime chemical attacks or Russian carpet bombing.
    Doubt it. You ever been in Lewisham after the pubs close?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,995
    MattW said:

    Cyclefree said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.
    It's not the job of regulators to do this. Did no-one in Labour do any thinking at all while in opposition?
    It seems to me to be quite in order to ask regulators how regulation can be improved; they are the ones who are closest to their industries or sectors.

    And it seems that it is in the remit:

    Most of Britain's economic regulators already have a Growth Duty enshrined in their statute, having come into effect in March 2017 under the Deregulation Act of two years earlier.
    I think we have a late winner for Freudian slip of the year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,463
    Nigelb said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    Some of the last places I’d be seeking ideas.
    Yes it's a bit bonkers. The job of regulators is to err (Well try and) ... regulate ?!?
  • As we are discussing the defence of the realm... BBC2 shows probably the best-known episode of Dad's Army at 8pm.

    Mainwaring seizes the chance to contribute to the war effort by guarding a captured German U-boat crew and the platoon welcomes the first American troops to the area.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,731

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/ronxyz00/status/1872647183578845492

    Former Trump ambassador to Denmark on Greenland: The idea that little Denmark can afford to defend Greenland is preposterous. They can't afford to defend and develop it... What President Trump is suggesting is common sense solution.

    I have seen the future and it's four years of Donald Trump spouting rubbish which all the people seeking to curry favour with him pretend is the wisdom of Solomon.
    Quite often he spouts rubbish which is jumped on by a pack of crazed commentators saying 'SEEEEEEE!!' like this Greenland thing, and he does something completely different.
    And do you think that’s a good thing? Do you think going on about Greenland like this has made the US or the world a better place?
    I think it was probably a classic Trump shakedown - Denmark was perhaps uming and ahing over a lucrative US defence contract, and now after Trump's guff about Greenland, they will sign. I don't approve of it or think it's a good thing, but those of us who adore the US and want everyone to spend money keeping its defence companies in plentiful employment should be delighted.

    Trump is all about the US balance of payments and their defence companies especially. He will do the same to us when it's our turn (he'll probably enjoy it especially because it's the loathed Starmer), but happily we will not be able to discern any difference, as we have always had the chequebook out with pen hovering where the US is concerned anyway.
    You’ve just made that up out of thin air. There is zero evidence of any such Danish-US defence contract.
    Yes, I have made it up, as I clearly state when I use the word 'perhaps'.

    However, I doubt it's far from the truth. Wasn't the new runway they have promised to build designed for F16s (or similar, I don’t know the makes)? Perhaps they will need a couple of F16s to go on them. Either way, I strongly suspect a large portion of that £1.5bn in Greenland defence spending will be tinkling into US coffers, so Trump will be happy. And everyone else will read it as 'humiliated Trump backs down on Greenland threats'.
    You are still just making things up. Evidence should be rooted in reality, not fantasy. There is no evidence for any of your speculation.

    The increased Greenland defence spending was planned before Trump said anything. The timing of its announcement was just coincidental.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,544
    edited December 2024

    Cyclefree said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    This is what's wrong with the government and its budget. Labour has no policies, just some vague aspirations. It wants savings but does not know from where. It wants growth but does not know how. This is a motherhood and apple pie government.
    It's not the job of regulators to do this. Did no-one in Labour do any thinking at all while in opposition?
    It is a foundation of politics to the right of the centre that regulation impedes growth, so presumably looking at what regulators do (or don't do) should be relevant to a growth agenda. If you're going to make changes in this area, then it makes sense to get input first from the regulators. So, I don't see what's so terrible about this.
    No, it really doesn’t.
    You should start with those regulated, and ask them what the problems are.

    But jeez, what on earth is OFGEM likely to contribute to the debate ?

    The other two make slightly more sense. Though as we all know, planning is the area of regulation most ripe for change, as it has likely cost our economy hundreds of billions over the last couple of decades.
    But again, asking the planners is starting at the wrong end of the problem.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,731
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-throws-down-gauntlet-to-watchdogs-with-growth-edict-13280738

    The PM, chancellor and business secretary have written to watchdogs including Ofgem, the FCA and CMA to demand ideas for growth

    Some of the last places I’d be seeking ideas.
    Yes it's a bit bonkers. The job of regulators is to err (Well try and) ... regulate ?!?
    And regulation has impacts, including potentially on growth. There's a whole body of regulatory science that considers how to optimise regulation to do the things you want and not do the things you don't want.
  • Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    See this is why the NHS is in crisis. We don't allow the family of doctors to come to the UK.
    It's Mrs Assad who has the UK citizenship surely?

    Surely she should be allowed to return, albeit for trial on complicity in war crimes, embezzlement etc?
    Oh yes, like Kemi Badenoch she is also a computer scientist.
    Have the Tories tried switching Kemi off and back on again?
    It's only a matter of time before they reboot the leadership.
    Farage must be absolutely delighted with Kemi.
    It's becoming increasingly easy to see how the Tories might collapse from here.

    A few more MP, and big business donor defections - the latter don't even have great reasons of either loyalty or ideology not to jump - could become a self-reinforcing trend.

    "You can't win a majority starting with only five seats" might be true - but what if it's thirty ? Or more ?
    And you have several years to spend £100m, before election restrictions ...
    Yet the biggest gainers on seats on current polls will be the Tories from Labour due to big inroads Farage's party has made into the 2024 Labour vote while Kemi is holding the 2024 Tory vote
    Good morning

    I think that is fairly realistic, and I for one am quite happy with Kemi and not concerned she has Farage threatening legal action, as it is very important to this conservative that the two parties are not seen as one identity

    There are many writing Kemi off , but they are not her audience and she has barely been in the job a few weeks

    I expect that as 2025 progresses the extremes of the Trump Presidency and Musk's financial backing for Farage will not play as well for either him or Reform, but also I cannot see a boost for Labour as the dire economic position post Reeves miscalculated budget manifests itself

    As long as Kemi retains the support of conservatives, [and she headed the last conhome table], then she will be OK

    I expect reform to do well in red seats in the locals but it looks as if labour are considering cancelling some of these locals which is bizarre

    Anyway, I may be a lone voice in support of Kemi, but I do think Farage and Reform during 2025 will face a difficult time with their support for Trump and Musk
    Occurs to me that if Musk goes full-on Reform/Farage backing with cash and twitter, when Trump falls out with Musk it's going to leave Farage in a tricky spot. On the one hand - lovely cash and hordes of Musk fanboys, on the other - a constant barrage from the loyal MAGA hordes.
    That won't be a problem at all as long as Farage continues the ritual obeisance toward DJT, which he surely will, then DJT won't give a fuck if Musk gives Farage money.

    We are probably underestimating how much Musk will weigh in on the next British GE and what a profound effect it will have. He saw how the flattery and money formula worked with DJT and he clearly liked both the process and the outcome so why wouldn't he put his man in No.10?
    I'm very much expecting it. Apparently we have a special place in Musk's heart as the "mothership of the English speaking peoples."

    Chest puffing out as I was typing there.
    I fee left out; no one in Europe has had a threat of invasion yet.
    Trump has outsourced that to Putin and the North Koreans.
    Maybe he should invite Ukraine to become an American state.
    We were talking about the UK becoming a US state the other day - @Leon I think was in favour. Whilst I could never be in favour as a patriot, I recognise that we would probably have more rights and powers against the Federal Government than we currently do in that situation, and they more responsibilities toward us.
    Do we think the people of Greenland would vote to become US citizens in a free and fair referendum? Or the people of Canada? Or Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela... The world is full of people who'd prefer to be Norteamericanos given half a chance.

    And, of course, it's nothing new. The Washington establishment was quite sniffy about Californian statehood in the 1840s as most of the population consisted of Spanish-speaking 'Indians'. But the discovery of gold concentrated their minds.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,995

    Handy medical tip.

    Any paper cuts on your finger tips can be quickly discovered by groping around in a jar of vinegar to grab the last remaining pickled onion.

    Ouch!
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