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The disconnect between the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
The disconnect between the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
Over the last few days I’ve highlighted how Nigel Farage has become the favourite to be the next Prime Minister which I felt was wrong on a number of levels and the most seats betting market is further proof.
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The other way is if Labour are so despised that the Conservatives and Reform merge to get rid of them and Farage is somehow elected leader. And then wins the election of course.
Both are stranger-things-have-happened contingencies, but I think that way is slightly more probable.
It's why Reform have a low ceiling as well as a high floor.
Here are the nominees for BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2024!
⭐ Jude Bellingham
⭐ Keely Hodgkinson
⭐ Luke Littler
⭐ Joe Root
⭐ Sarah Storey
⭐ Alex Yee
An utter disgrace that the best batsman since Bradman isn't on that list.
I think the Farage thing is being caused by the bullshit bubble on Twitter. I read the "For You" feed to see what FUD is being served up to people, and its astonishing. If you read the For You feed you will KNOW that Starmer is a squatter, illegitimate and undemocratic. Farage is the clear choice of the British public and an election must be declared so that the Nigel can sweep to power with a majority of 704.
Perhaps the betting markets are being played by people eating FUD.
My default scenario right now is that the future will rhyme with the history.
He's got a personality for one unlike a few of the others.
His story is also fantastic.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/ghana-former-president-john-dramani-mahama-wins-election
African democracy is increasingly embedded, particularly in Anglophone Africa. Its one of the unsung success of recent decades. Same goes for Latin America, which used also to be full of dictators and coups.
And he is just 17 years old. Has transformed Darts in a way that promoters can barely believe. And despite all that he appears to be a nice kid, rooted in reality, not acting like he owns the place etc.
Brace America.
You asked for it, you got it.
Hiring rates lowest for four years following Reeves Budget.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/tags/captagon/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/9/what-is-captagon-the-addictive-drug-mass-produced-in-syria
Hopefully with the fall of Assad this will finally come to an end.
https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/news/2024/business-confidence-falls-to-lowest-level-in-almost-two-years-as-output-drops-sharply
https://inews.co.uk/news/changes-workers-angela-rayner-employment-rights-law-3318450
Has to be Keely Hodgkinson for me despite Joe Root's 6 (!!) centuries in this calendar year.
Once they sort out a drinks exemption then it is on.
The WWE recently held a big even there too.
Littler got alot of publicity at the start of the year with the Worlds and the Premier League, but the regular slog of the Players tour and the Euro tour really is only of interest to darts fans like myself and it is relatively minor interest.
It is good for darts though for him to be on the list and he will be on the show which helps the publicity.
You can't have darts without pints.
Keely Hodgkinson (athletics) has been odds-on favourite since the Olympics, where she won the 800m gold medal.
Luke Littler (darts) is around the 5/2 mark and the others are all 100+ on Betfair.
Sir Keir’s comments came as he arrived in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday for trade talks with Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, its president, before flying on to Saudi Arabia for his first face-to-face meeting with Mohammed bin Salman, its leader, on Monday.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/08/starmer-welcomes-fall-bashar-al-assad-syria/
Starmer on his travels again. It feels like he is out of the country every week, I wonder how his global trotting stacks up against previous PMs?
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5056203#Comment_5056203
A word of caution: if researching the darts prodigy, note that both top darts players are named Luke.
OTOH, the economy is devastated, and it's a big hard currency earner, so it will take a determined new government to shut it down.
One small reason for hope is that the rebels have not made the mistake of Iraq, and trashed existing state institutions.
Rather than stringing up the PM from the nearest lamp post, they've negotiated what seems to be an orderly handover of power, and have forbidden looting of the various ministries.
(Assad's palace seems to have been allowed as fair game.)
With Israel and the US and Turkey all intervening militarily, the risk is of renewed civil war.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/north-of-england-will-benefit-from-closer-ties-to-saudi-says-starmer-as-he-visits-middle-east/ar-AA1vv8In?ocid=BingNewsSerp
His father was a High Court judge and one day a young cricket-loving barrister noted the name and asked whether the excellent cricketer, Chris Tavare, might be his son. The old boy replied stuffily 'I have four sons. They are all good cricketers. Which one do you mean?'
Case dismissed.
Puerile attempts to demean him are just that pathetic puerile comments...particularly from Badenoch who basically traveled the globe to sign crap deals that were either worse than what she was seeking to replace or of benefit only to the other nation and certainly not the UK
Woiuld ANYONE care to argur that point with factual evidence of a Badenoch deal that is actually worthwhile under scrutiny??...
'Paper after paper spells out how vulnerable we are to internet-induced brain rot. “High levels of internet usage and heavy media multitasking are associated with decreased grey matter in prefrontal regions,” finds one. People with internet addiction exhibit “structural brain changes” and “reduced gray [sic] matter”.'
While if Labour still won most seats Starmer would stay PM with likely confidence and supply from Davey and the LDs
Contrast with the Tories who have a high celing but an increasingly low floor
Internecine warfare between the two over the next 18 months in the meantime Mr Pragmatist Starmer goes what he is best at...and in 18-24 months time both Farage (to the US) and Badenoch (to Turfton St) will be gone
Among old cottages, a Tudor watchtower, a cheese shop, and two boarding schools, Greggs has arrived in the upmarket market town of Bruton, Somerset. Locals have mixed opinions
https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/britain-posh-town-bruton-somerset-reaction-greggs-3416287?ico=most_popular
They are not, for example, members of the Arab league.
AIUI they would be Turkic - along with Azerbaijan etc. *
Just as Iran are not Arab, being Persian.
* Checking, Turkey has an Arab minority of around 2%.
I backed Bellingham at 180 hoping he might be quite a bit shorter once the nominations were announced. No such luck.
And Root's not even the best English batsman right now !
Has to be Keely for me, gold in Rome and Paris in what is a genuinely tough event.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14171787/Shaurn-Thomas-plead-guilty-murder-Akeem-Edwards.html
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2024/dec/09/court-delays-driving-innocent-prisoners-to-plead-guilty-in-england-and-wales
'Usher, whose office examines deaths in custody and complaints from prisoners, said: “I have met prisoners who have said to me they’ve been waiting for three or four years for a trial, and they are going to change their plea to guilty.
“They have been advised by their lawyer that as soon as they get a trial for the offence for which they’re in prison, they will be released if they plead guilty, because there is no way they are going to get a sentence longer than they’ve been waiting.”'
When asked by a breathless US journalist after winning the Washington, D.C. International Stakes (on Karabas, 1969) 'At what point did you know you had the race won?' he replied 'About two weeks ago.'
Classic.
Suspect that it probably goes to Keely from that list, she’s photogenic and does actually have a personality as well as a gold medal.
Would be great if all the darts fans put down their pints and got it for Luke though, he’s the best thing to happen to that sport in decades.
Israel wasting no time annexing parts of southern Syria.
Wouldn’t you want to get away from it all too?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/dec/09/uk-politics-live-pat-mcfadden-labour-civil-service-reform-rachel-reeves-eu-relationship?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-6756b3708f0896ed0c237c70#block-6756b3708f0896ed0c237c70
Might be a while.
Swimming (Men's 4 x 200); rowing Quad sculls; lightweight double sculls; equestrian; men's eight; women's sprint (Cycling) - All team golds
Trap, women's kite (Sailing) - low profile for SPOTY tbh
Toby Roberts - some stunning climbing achievements including gold at Olympics, 2 world cup lead wins and tough routes but climbing is one of those sports like ultra long distance running and mountaineering that exists in it's own sphere. See Jasmin Paris not getting in too.
Cross country cycling - Pidcock. Bit unlucky to miss out perhaps.
In addition to his Olympic gold:
2024 (5)
1st Cross-country, Olympic Games
UCI XCO World Cup
1st Nové Město
1st Crans-Montana
UCI XCC World Cup
1st Crans-Montana
Shimano Super Cup
1st La Nucia
Thank you for getting the perspective correct.
One of those stories in sport that makes you smile. Barney is long past his peak but still a formidable player. 16-year old Luke utterly demolishes him. Unplayable. Barney is very gracious in defeat and tells the media that Littler will conquer the sport.
We will all get very very bored with Littler. But for now, he is THE sports phenomenon of the year. Who else is in the running who has achieved so much so quickly so young?
'Comrades....New Comrades. We are gathered here today in the presence of Our Leader....'
He was a one-off.