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Like Thatcher in her first term Starmer finds himself third in the polls – politicalbetting.com
Like Thatcher in her first term Starmer finds himself third in the polls – politicalbetting.com
Full write-up and data tables here: https://t.co/JOnbHVYabjIncludes discussion of why the Labour vote share is so low, and how our voting intention methodology differs from other polling companies
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VOTE FARMER
One of the most striking themes in Keir Starmer’s speech today — his frustration with Whitehall
For weeks I’ve been asking Labour people what they make of their time in government and one sentiment comes up again and again:
“Dominic Cummings was right”
This is from the ONS Blog:
Back in 1996, when we first published annual lists of baby names with full counts, the top boys’ name was Jack. There were 10,779 baby Jacks, a whopping 3.2% of all baby boys born that year. Now the number 1 name is given to only half that proportion of baby boys. About 1 in 4 (24%) baby boys were given a name in the top 10 in 1996, whereas now it’s only about 1 in 8 (12%). This increasing diversification in naming has taken place every single year since 1996, for both boys and girls. It was probably happening for many years before that too.
CON: 26% (-1)
REF: 24% (+2)
LAB: 23% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 9% (-)
via
@FindoutnowUK
, 04 Dec
She also had a much more solid victory behind her as a base - in 1979 she got 43.9% of the vote. She was a big winner in 1979. People
forget - whereas the ludicrous Starmer got 33%
Finally, Thatcher had a clear if unpopular plan and a talented team of ministers
I rest my case
When was labour last at 23% ?
My only question is wtf are Find Out Now???
Why are Labour in 3rd place... Ask Find Out Now.?
Relevance... NONE
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=26&LAB=23&LIB=11&Reform=24&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
So neither Tories nor Reform nor Lab and LDs combined would have a majority.
Tories + Reform + DUP + TUV + UUP would be on 321 and Labour + LDs + Greens + SNP + Plaid + Independents + Alliance + SF + SDLP if took seats + Independents would be on 322 so both still short.
Though Starmer could scrape home as PM if SF took seats, otherwise Badenoch would likely lead a minority Tory government with Reform and DUP confidence and supply
Maybe you need to review your technique
Given the ULF transmitters were used to send submarine orders, the question must be, is the order to sink the Belgrano lurking in some Black Sabbath album?
Upsetting pensioners their children and grandchildren was not the best first action she took and is likely to be her legacy much as the poll tax was
Suddenly it's the best thing since the Chorleywood Process and bread slicers were invented?
The questions after Starmer's lacklustre speech today suggest Farage is running the agenda. Incredulity from the not very bright Beth Rigby that Starmer had no immigration number. Like immigration numbers have been a reliable indicator of immigration control. Nigel is pulling the strings.
High Speed RailCoronovirus Rapid Transmission SystemLab/Con is 49%
SPLORG is 51%.
Lab/Con 52 is the lowest I have noticed before.
Crossover. I don't think this will last long or be seen again soon, but a long era of Lab/Con dominance (which was well over 80% in 2017) is unstable.
You might disagree with his solutions (they certainly took an “everything will be fine if we just hand governance to a bunch of tech nerds, nothing can ever go wrong with this plan” approach to problem solving that felt very naive to me.) but I this his analysis was pretty sound.
Given they have rubbish polling numbers anyway, Labour had a golden chance to fix all this at the budget. So did the Conservatives in the spring, in the face of inevitable defeat. Cowardice everywhere.
It’s taken SKS 5 months.
Although this has absolutely no bearing on where people will be in 4 years time, I will just enjoy a slight feeling of mirth that Labour find themselves in such a predicament. Much of the last 5 months has been a complete unforced error; and while I agree with those who say that they need to be given time, my initial feelings of disappointment with them have led me to crack a little smile at this poll.
Although after Trump has handed over the EU to Russia we'll be defending the White Cliffs of Dover rather than retaking Port Stanley.
He gave the impression that he was going to make Whitehall more productive by sheer force of will, which I think we all know is destined to fail.
https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1864671406853665118
The other thing is polls before election overstated Lab lead. Even if no one had changed their minds, they would still be down 5%+.
The key is that the log at Northwood, and the recollections of those involved match.
Hint: Goeben and Troubridge.
https://worksinprogress.co/issue/how-madrid-built-its-metro-cheaply/
Worth reading the whole thing - lots of potential lessons for us.
However, I guess you're used to regretting your vote.
Do not post defamatory allegations against BPC registered pollsters.
I'd be interested in the reaction of someone like @Casino_Royale who works in the industry.
So, "Muhammad" is the number one boys Muslim name, with 3,722 babies born with it. And you might think that the peak incidence, given that it has become the most popular boys name.
But actually it's not. "Muhammad" was actually more popular back in 2016 when 3,908 babies got that name.
The alternative spelling - "Muhammed" - goes on a really weird rollercoaster of popularity: only 354 babies were named it, against over 500 in every year between 2008 and 2016.
There are also some interesting - and probably biracial names - that have picked up popularity, such as "Muhammad-Adam".
Guess what? It came up with Farage having a ginormous majority.
But I'd vote for him.
The spoilt brats need to get over it.
Badenoch 3.55
Farage 4.4
Johnson 20
Rayner 21
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister/prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-betting-1.230434795
Conservatives: 26% (-1)
Reform UK: 24% (+2)
Labour: 23% (-2)
LD 11% (-1)
Green 9% (-1)
No extra housing being built
Also, the US are about to put a bunch of outsiders into a serious project to cut the size and scope of the bureaucracy, which if it works will be transformative for that country and attract investment that would otherwise end up elsewhere. Such as the UK.
I recall the 83 election fairly well - it was the first I voted in. It seems absurd to me to argue it wasn't significant.
Thatcher would likely have lost against a united Labour Party under a moderate, of course.
I do not understand what the difference between a messenger and a prophet is.
But the other source is just as important. WRT IHT, we currently have a tax which doesn't work because it is mostly voluntary, and even if it did work it is haphazard and irregular. You only die once, and this fact is tax inefficient. A proper wealth/property/assets/land tax, more regular and at much much lower level than 40% is the answer