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The Planning Problem – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hey @Leon - US Congress select committee final report on covid says likely that it was caused by lab leak.


    "SARS-CoV-2, the Virus that Causes COVID-19, Likely Emerged Because of a Laboratory or Research Related Accident."

    https://oversight.house.gov/report/after-action-review-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-the-lessons-learned-and-a-path-forward/


    "Four years after the onset of the worst pandemic in 100 years, the weight of the evidence increasingly supports the lab leak hypothesis. Since the Select Subcommittee commenced its work in February 2023, more and more senior intelligence officials, politicians, science editors, and scientists increasingly have endorsed the hypothesis that COVID-191 emerged as the result of a laboratory or research related accident."

    The problem is that we - as humans - like certainty.

    And the issue here is that it all the evidence here is entirely circumstantial. And almost entirely comes down to one thing:

    Covid (a bat virus) originated in the same city as the Wuhan Institute of Virology (which was possibly the leading place for studying bat viruses in the world).

    All that has happened in the intervening four and a half years is that more and more people have come to think "hmmmm... seems like an awfully big coincidence." Hence the phrase "more and more senior intelligence officials, politicians, science editors, and scientists increasingly have endorsed the hypothesis that COVID-191 emerged as the result of a laboratory or research related accident".

    I.e., there's no actual new evidence. There are merely more and more people who've said "we looked at what little evidence there is, and statistically, it's highly likely that the WIV was responsible".
    This really really really isn’t true. Tons more evidence, some scientific, some circumstantial, has emerged in the last four years - all favouring lab leak

    Mountains of it

    Eg all the emails slowly released under FOIA in the last four years showing that the scientists around fauci themselves thought lab leak was very probable even as they argued otherwise in public - these are still emerging

    Also Ecohealth and Daszak had made plans and
    requests to do the exact engineering on the virus that we see in Covid-19. That was another discovery

    There is much else like this. Your comment surprises me
    Isn't this a bit like all those people who try to establish the identity of Jack the Ripper though? You can make more or less credible guesses but at the end of the day there isn't enough actual evidence to prove them one way or the other.
    Yes. And the Lab Leak theory has now become trendy. It won't be long before the free-thinking mavericks start saying that the Wet Market is the way to go.
    I'm a wet market man. Always have been, always will be.
    I quite admire that. You’ll be the Menzies Campbell of Covid theorisers, still wearing the sock-suspenders of zoonosis into the Noughties and beyond
    Remember that assessing probabilities is one of the few things I'm genuinely gifted at. I'd swap it for cooking or languages if I could but you have to go with what you've got.
    Assessing probabilities and likely outcomes of US elections. Don't be overly modest.
    Well I was due a miss. It'd been years.

    What did you make of Tyson v Paul btw? Don't recall seeing you comment after the event.
    I commented several times on it after it.

    None of them before or after said: "Assessing fight outcomes is one of the few things I'm genuinely gifted at."

    So, you know, there is that.
    Oh did you get it wrong or something?

    Well you can still call yourself a boxing expert (lol) even if you did because it wasn't really boxing, was it? Travesty of the noble art.
    I don't think I have ever said:

    "Assessing boxing is one of the few things I'm genuinely gifted at".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hey @Leon - US Congress select committee final report on covid says likely that it was caused by lab leak.


    "SARS-CoV-2, the Virus that Causes COVID-19, Likely Emerged Because of a Laboratory or Research Related Accident."

    https://oversight.house.gov/report/after-action-review-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-the-lessons-learned-and-a-path-forward/


    "Four years after the onset of the worst pandemic in 100 years, the weight of the evidence increasingly supports the lab leak hypothesis. Since the Select Subcommittee commenced its work in February 2023, more and more senior intelligence officials, politicians, science editors, and scientists increasingly have endorsed the hypothesis that COVID-191 emerged as the result of a laboratory or research related accident."

    The problem is that we - as humans - like certainty.

    And the issue here is that it all the evidence here is entirely circumstantial. And almost entirely comes down to one thing:

    Covid (a bat virus) originated in the same city as the Wuhan Institute of Virology (which was possibly the leading place for studying bat viruses in the world).

    All that has happened in the intervening four and a half years is that more and more people have come to think "hmmmm... seems like an awfully big coincidence." Hence the phrase "more and more senior intelligence officials, politicians, science editors, and scientists increasingly have endorsed the hypothesis that COVID-191 emerged as the result of a laboratory or research related accident".

    I.e., there's no actual new evidence. There are merely more and more people who've said "we looked at what little evidence there is, and statistically, it's highly likely that the WIV was responsible".
    This really really really isn’t true. Tons more evidence, some scientific, some circumstantial, has emerged in the last four years - all favouring lab leak

    Mountains of it

    Eg all the emails slowly released under FOIA in the last four years showing that the scientists around fauci themselves thought lab leak was very probable even as they argued otherwise in public - these are still emerging

    Also Ecohealth and Daszak had made plans and
    requests to do the exact engineering on the virus that we see in Covid-19. That was another discovery

    There is much else like this. Your comment surprises me
    Isn't this a bit like all those people who try to establish the identity of Jack the Ripper though? You can make more or less credible guesses but at the end of the day there isn't enough actual evidence to prove them one way or the other.
    Yes. And the Lab Leak theory has now become trendy. It won't be long before the free-thinking mavericks start saying that the Wet Market is the way to go.
    I'm a wet market man. Always have been, always will be.
    I quite admire that. You’ll be the Menzies Campbell of Covid theorisers, still wearing the sock-suspenders of zoonosis into the Noughties and beyond
    Remember that assessing probabilities is one of the few things I'm genuinely gifted at. I'd swap it for cooking or languages if I could but you have to go with what you've got.
    Assessing probabilities and likely outcomes of US elections. Don't be overly modest.
    Well I was due a miss. It'd been years.

    What did you make of Tyson v Paul btw? Don't recall seeing you comment after the event.
    I commented several times on it after it.

    None of them before or after said: "Assessing fight outcomes is one of the few things I'm genuinely gifted at."

    So, you know, there is that.
    Oh did you get it wrong or something?

    Well you can still call yourself a boxing expert (lol) even if you did because it wasn't really boxing, was it? Travesty of the noble art.
    I don't think I have ever said:

    "Assessing boxing is one of the few things I'm genuinely gifted at".
    Just as well!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Just found this on TwiX. I don’t generally approve of random cutting and pasting, but this feels so acute and perceptive I’ll break my rule. It’s a simple list of simple questions, and yet it gets right to the heart


    “Questions To Ask Ourselves:

    1. What is an Egyptian pyramid doing on a US dollar bill?

    2. Why did 56 countries sign a treaty not to take risks and enter Antarctica?

    3. Why do planes never fly over Antarctica?

    4. How did NASA "lose" the photos of the moon landing, one of the most important moments for humanity?

    5. If Neil Armstrong was the first to walk on the moon, who held the camera?

    6. Why haven't we gone back to the moon?

    7. If monkeys evolved into humans, why are there still monkeys?

    8. Why does 95% of our DNA exist as "junk"? Who decided it was actually "garbage"?

    9. How were huge, symmetrical, detailed, sacred, and geometrically regular structures such as cathedrals and parliamentary buildings created by people who lived in log cabins, rode horse-drawn carriages, and had no machines or lasers?

    10. How is it that similar pre-Columbian architecture is found all over the world?

    11. Why are there images in ancient Egyptian art that resemble "spaceships"?

    12. Why were remains and images of giant people found? And why do different ancient scriptures from various cultures, including the Bible, talk about giants?

    13. Why are there images of mushrooms in ancient Christian art? And why does the Pope dress up like a giant Amanita muscaria mushroom?

    14. Why do ancient Egyptian artworks show jaws, and is it a coincidence that the pineal gland resembles jaws?

    15. Why are there descriptions of dragons all over the world and in different cultures, thousands of years apart, and also mentioned in the Bible?

    16. Why is there so much blatant satanic symbolism in the music and entertainment industry?

    17. Why do most video games revolve around killing?

    18. How is it possible that movies and cartoons like The Simpsons can predict certain cultural events so accurately?

    19. How do forest fires melt cars but leave trees intact?

    20. What is the national debt? If there is a borrower, there must also be a lender: who is it?

    21. How is it that the so-called "national debt" has increased despite tax increases? Where does the taxpayer's money go?

    22. Why is alcohol and tobacco poisoning considered "normal" and referred to simply as "drinking" and "smoking"?

    23. Why are alcohol
    and tobacco shown in almost all shows and movies?

    24. How do news presenters around the world and on various channels say and repeat the same script word for word?

    25. If we are more progressive and informed than ever before, why do we have the highest rates of obesity, cancer, and heart disease, not to mention depression?

    Feel free to contribute any additional questions you may have.”

    https://x.com/vegastarr/status/1863623245771235822?s=46

    3. Why do planes never fly over Antarctica?
    The demand for flights from Australia to Argentina is low

    5. If Neil Armstrong was the first to walk on the moon, who held the camera?
    The camera was attached to the lower stage of the Lunar Module

    6. Why haven't we gone back to the moon?
    We are going back to the moon
    https://www.spacex.com/humanspaceflight/moon/
    https://www.independent.co.uk/space/china-moon-mission-lunar-space-station-planets-b2629977.html

    9. How were huge, symmetrical, detailed, sacred, and geometrically regular structures such as cathedrals and parliamentary buildings created by people who lived in log cabins, rode horse-drawn carriages, and had no machines or lasers?
    If you pull a string taut, it's a straight line. If you attach a weight to a string, it's a vertical line. If yiu put a bubble in a glass tube, it's a horizontal line. If you hang a chain from two points, trace the points and turn it upside down, that's an arch. If you measure the diagonals of a four-sided shape and they are the same, it's a rectangle.

    25. If we are more progressive and informed than ever before, why do we have the highest rates of obesity, cancer, and heart disease, not to mention depression?
    You have to die of something. We cured most bacterial diseases, so you have to die of something else. We cured hunger (ish!) so now we have obesity.
    Great stuff. Are you doing the others?
    I don't know the answers to the others! I can give guesses, like this:

    24. How do news presenters around the world and on various channels say and repeat the same script word for word?
    The money spent on in-person datagathering continually diminishes, so TV news channels concentrate on things that can raise money such as discussion shows or talking about Twitter or celebs. When it comes to reporting the news, they just repeat feeds from things like Associated Press, and that's why they use the same words.

    23. Why are alcohol and tobacco shown in almost all shows and movies?
    Tobacco increasingly isn't. Regulations about tobacco usage result in smaller and smaller incidence. This forced the filmmakers to adapt and smoking was used to indicate edgy desperation, being sinister, or the villain in the 90's or 00's. But nowadays it's very rare. Look at Alien or Blade Runner or Dr No where you have major cast members smoking, and compare to Alien:Romulus or Blade Runner 2049 or No Time To Die, where nobody does.

    19. How do forest fires melt cars but leave trees intact?
    They don't. The cars melt, the trees die. But the trees have seeds which can regrow, and cars don't have car seeds
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    edited December 3
    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:

    It's partisan-driven misconceptions about the economy, stupid.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,916
    edited December 3
    The Wallace saga is a great example of the problem with the way the news media operates in this country.

    I’d concede it’s newsworthy at least in some degree. If he’s done what he’s alleged to then he’s a prat who shouldn’t have carried on like that in a workplace (or elsewhere for that matter) and his employer is now entitled to take whatever disciplinary or other steps it needs to take. Im not sure what purpose cancelling TV shows he’s on serves, only to be a waste of money and a lot of the hard efforts of the other people who made and featured on the programmes, but whatever.

    I’m hardly convinced it should be headline news for days on end and require statements from Downing Street and a visit to the BBC for the culture secretary to discuss it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:

    It's partisan-driven misconceptions about the economy, stupid.
    We are getting the same thing here with the current doomfest on Starmer's Labour. Gbeebies has overtaken Sky News. The Telegraph has gone bonkers. Twatter is a political tool rather than social media.

    This will be another thing we import from the States.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:


    Even more astonishingly come the end of January after Trump's inaugration I would equally expect the share of Democrats stating the condition of the US economy is in good shape to plunge and the share of Republicans saying the economy is in good shape to surge
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,125

    Eabhal said:

    Martial Law in South Korea? Is that really happening?
    What would that mean in South Korea?

    https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20241203154500001?input=1195m

    What? We need a PB Korea expert to make themselves known.
    I like South Korea, it’s a country with a Seoul.
    Incheon on the annoying!
    But still within Pu-sanity.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Korea must have been feeling left out as a potential WW3 trigger.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Just found this on TwiX. I don’t generally approve of random cutting and pasting, but this feels so acute and perceptive I’ll break my rule. It’s a simple list of simple questions, and yet it gets right to the heart


    “Questions To Ask Ourselves:

    1. What is an Egyptian pyramid doing on a US dollar bill?

    2. Why did 56 countries sign a treaty not to take risks and enter Antarctica?

    3. Why do planes never fly over Antarctica?

    4. How did NASA "lose" the photos of the moon landing, one of the most important moments for humanity?

    5. If Neil Armstrong was the first to walk on the moon, who held the camera?

    6. Why haven't we gone back to the moon?

    7. If monkeys evolved into humans, why are there still monkeys?

    8. Why does 95% of our DNA exist as "junk"? Who decided it was actually "garbage"?

    9. How were huge, symmetrical, detailed, sacred, and geometrically regular structures such as cathedrals and parliamentary buildings created by people who lived in log cabins, rode horse-drawn carriages, and had no machines or lasers?

    10. How is it that similar pre-Columbian architecture is found all over the world?

    11. Why are there images in ancient Egyptian art that resemble "spaceships"?

    12. Why were remains and images of giant people found? And why do different ancient scriptures from various cultures, including the Bible, talk about giants?

    13. Why are there images of mushrooms in ancient Christian art? And why does the Pope dress up like a giant Amanita muscaria mushroom?

    14. Why do ancient Egyptian artworks show jaws, and is it a coincidence that the pineal gland resembles jaws?

    15. Why are there descriptions of dragons all over the world and in different cultures, thousands of years apart, and also mentioned in the Bible?

    16. Why is there so much blatant satanic symbolism in the music and entertainment industry?

    17. Why do most video games revolve around killing?

    18. How is it possible that movies and cartoons like The Simpsons can predict certain cultural events so accurately?

    19. How do forest fires melt cars but leave trees intact?

    20. What is the national debt? If there is a borrower, there must also be a lender: who is it?

    21. How is it that the so-called "national debt" has increased despite tax increases? Where does the taxpayer's money go?

    22. Why is alcohol and tobacco poisoning considered "normal" and referred to simply as "drinking" and "smoking"?

    23. Why are alcohol
    and tobacco shown in almost all shows and movies?

    24. How do news presenters around the world and on various channels say and repeat the same script word for word?

    25. If we are more progressive and informed than ever before, why do we have the highest rates of obesity, cancer, and heart disease, not to mention depression?

    Feel free to contribute any additional questions you may have.”

    https://x.com/vegastarr/status/1863623245771235822?s=46

    3. Why do planes never fly over Antarctica?
    The demand for flights from Australia to Argentina is low

    5. If Neil Armstrong was the first to walk on the moon, who held the camera?
    The camera was attached to the lower stage of the Lunar Module

    6. Why haven't we gone back to the moon?
    We are going back to the moon
    https://www.spacex.com/humanspaceflight/moon/
    https://www.independent.co.uk/space/china-moon-mission-lunar-space-station-planets-b2629977.html

    9. How were huge, symmetrical, detailed, sacred, and geometrically regular structures such as cathedrals and parliamentary buildings created by people who lived in log cabins, rode horse-drawn carriages, and had no machines or lasers?
    If you pull a string taut, it's a straight line. If you attach a weight to a string, it's a vertical line. If yiu put a bubble in a glass tube, it's a horizontal line. If you hang a chain from two points, trace the points and turn it upside down, that's an arch. If you measure the diagonals of a four-sided shape and they are the same, it's a rectangle.

    25. If we are more progressive and informed than ever before, why do we have the highest rates of obesity, cancer, and heart disease, not to mention depression?
    You have to die of something. We cured most bacterial diseases, so you have to die of something else. We cured hunger (ish!) so now we have obesity.
    Great stuff. Are you doing the others?
    I don't know the answers to the others! I can give guesses, like this:

    24. How do news presenters around the world and on various channels say and repeat the same script word for word?
    The money spent on in-person datagathering continually diminishes, so TV news channels concentrate on things that can raise money such as discussion shows or talking about Twitter or celebs. When it comes to reporting the news, they just repeat feeds from things like Associated Press, and that's why they use the same words.

    23. Why are alcohol and tobacco shown in almost all shows and movies?
    Tobacco increasingly isn't. Regulations about tobacco usage result in smaller and smaller incidence. This forced the filmmakers to adapt and smoking was used to indicate edgy desperation, being sinister, or the villain in the 90's or 00's. But nowadays it's very rare. Look at Alien or Blade Runner or Dr No where you have major cast members smoking, and compare to Alien:Romulus or Blade Runner 2049 or No Time To Die, where nobody does.

    19. How do forest fires melt cars but leave trees intact?
    They don't. The cars melt, the trees die. But the trees have seeds which can regrow, and cars don't have car seeds
    Yep, very good. High standard maintained.

    On the middle one though - smoking on screen - I've noticed a bit of a comeback recently. Eg "Industry", the rather lurid banking drama, sees many a cig in many a mouth.

    I think it might be part of a gathering anti-woke backlash. Hope I'm wrong.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    S Korea thing looks serious.

    This is blatantly unconstitutional, but presumably intended to prevent the parties (both ruling and opposition parties have condemned the move) from voting to lift the declaration of martial law.
    ..We're now getting reports from South Korean media that the country's military has announced the suspension of all parliamentary activity.
    The Yonhap News Agency says members of the National Assembly have been banned from accessing the building...


    It is just possibly a military coup in the offing ?

    The President is massively unpopular, with an approval rating in the low 20% range.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:


    Where did you get that from please?

    I can use it for the afternoon thread.
    The underlyings are here: https://civiqs.com/results/economy_us_now?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&net=true&party=Republican

    The chart is from the NYTimes, but I can't find the exact link.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,880
    edited December 3
    Ukraine the Latest yesterday.

    Good conversation about the Ukrainian view on ceasefire, and various intermediate ideas about semi or partial NATO membership.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BavzNBYamNk
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,916
    So the South Korean parliament has been shuttered by the military and apparently all news media told to comply. Serious times.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Nigelb said:

    S Korea thing looks serious.

    This is blatantly unconstitutional, but presumably intended to prevent the parties (both ruling and opposition parties have condemned the move) from voting to lift the declaration of martial law.
    ..We're now getting reports from South Korean media that the country's military has announced the suspension of all parliamentary activity.
    The Yonhap News Agency says members of the National Assembly have been banned from accessing the building...


    It is just possibly a military coup in the offing ?

    The President is massively unpopular, with an approval rating in the low 20% range.

    The North might try to activate their mutual defence agreement with Russia, not that Russia is in a position to do much.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:

    It's partisan-driven misconceptions about the economy, stupid.
    One side is a lot more partisan that the other though. Democrats have a bias; Republicans have religious fervour.
    Yes, I slipped into false equivalence there. Take that technique away from Maga Republicans and there's not much left by way of argument.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Sounding more and more like a coup.

    ...We can bring you more detail now on exactly what the enforcement of martial law will mean for South Korea.
    According to the Yonhap news agency, those who violate martial law can be arrested without warrant.
    In addition, all media and publishers will be under the martial law command and activities. And, as we reported earlier, parliamentary activity is banned.
    Medical staff, including trainee doctors, have been ordered to return to work in 48 hours, it adds...


    Whatever it is, it's fuck all to do with the pretext under which it was declared.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Nigelb said:

    S Korea thing looks serious.

    This is blatantly unconstitutional, but presumably intended to prevent the parties (both ruling and opposition parties have condemned the move) from voting to lift the declaration of martial law.
    ..We're now getting reports from South Korean media that the country's military has announced the suspension of all parliamentary activity.
    The Yonhap News Agency says members of the National Assembly have been banned from accessing the building...


    It is just possibly a military coup in the offing ?

    The President is massively unpopular, with an approval rating in the low 20% range.

    The North might try to activate their mutual defence agreement with Russia, not that Russia is in a position to do much.
    They don't have the capacity to invade S Korea, and no one is going to invade them.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    Martial Law in South Korea? Is that really happening?
    What would that mean in South Korea?

    https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20241203154500001?input=1195m

    What? We need a PB Korea expert to make themselves known.
    I like South Korea, it’s a country with a Seoul.
    Incheon on the annoying!
    But still within Pu-sanity.
    You seem to think of yourself as the Choson one!
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976

    Korea must have been feeling left out as a potential WW3 trigger.

    lmao.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    edited December 3
    Nigelb said:

    S Korea thing looks serious.

    This is blatantly unconstitutional, but presumably intended to prevent the parties (both ruling and opposition parties have condemned the move) from voting to lift the declaration of martial law.
    ..We're now getting reports from South Korean media that the country's military has announced the suspension of all parliamentary activity.
    The Yonhap News Agency says members of the National Assembly have been banned from accessing the building...


    It is just possibly a military coup in the offing ?

    The President is massively unpopular, with an approval rating in the low 20% range.

    Starmer is taking notes.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,916
    Just what we needed, another stable democratic nation sliding into authoritarian rule…
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    Nigelb said:

    S Korea thing looks serious.

    This is blatantly unconstitutional, but presumably intended to prevent the parties (both ruling and opposition parties have condemned the move) from voting to lift the declaration of martial law.
    ..We're now getting reports from South Korean media that the country's military has announced the suspension of all parliamentary activity.
    The Yonhap News Agency says members of the National Assembly have been banned from accessing the building...


    It is just possibly a military coup in the offing ?

    The President is massively unpopular, with an approval rating in the low 20% range.

    Don't give the Telegraph ideas here please!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:

    It's partisan-driven misconceptions about the economy, stupid.
    We are getting the same thing here with the current doomfest on Starmer's Labour. Gbeebies has overtaken Sky News. The Telegraph has gone bonkers. Twatter is a political tool rather than social media.

    This will be another thing we import from the States.
    Yes, I have noticed that. Some of the "critiques" of Labour on the economy after just 5 months are too ludicrous to even engage with properly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:


    Where did you get that from please?

    I can use it for the afternoon thread.
    The underlyings are here: https://civiqs.com/results/economy_us_now?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&net=true&party=Republican

    The chart is from the NYTimes, but I can't find the exact link.
    Why does it stop on election day ?
    I think there's been quite a bounce in Republican views on the economy since then.
  • Nigelb said:

    S Korea thing looks serious.

    This is blatantly unconstitutional, but presumably intended to prevent the parties (both ruling and opposition parties have condemned the move) from voting to lift the declaration of martial law.
    ..We're now getting reports from South Korean media that the country's military has announced the suspension of all parliamentary activity.
    The Yonhap News Agency says members of the National Assembly have been banned from accessing the building...


    It is just possibly a military coup in the offing ?

    The President is massively unpopular, with an approval rating in the low 20% range.

    Keir Starmer will never achieve a 20% approval rating again !
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,435
    Nigelb said:

    Sounding more and more like a coup.

    ...We can bring you more detail now on exactly what the enforcement of martial law will mean for South Korea.
    According to the Yonhap news agency, those who violate martial law can be arrested without warrant.
    In addition, all media and publishers will be under the martial law command and activities. And, as we reported earlier, parliamentary activity is banned.
    Medical staff, including trainee doctors, have been ordered to return to work in 48 hours, it adds...


    Whatever it is, it's fuck all to do with the pretext under which it was declared.

    An ex-colleague of mine is currently in South Korea for work.

    Next week he's off to Taiwan...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Police enforcing martial law clash with protesters outside parliament
    published at 15:21
    We're receiving the first images now of large crowds gathering outside the South Korean National Assembly, after the country's president declared marital law.
    A line of police officers appears to be guarding the entrance gate to the building, which has been closed...

    BBC
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,916
    Nigelb said:

    Sounding more and more like a coup.

    ...We can bring you more detail now on exactly what the enforcement of martial law will mean for South Korea.
    According to the Yonhap news agency, those who violate martial law can be arrested without warrant.
    In addition, all media and publishers will be under the martial law command and activities. And, as we reported earlier, parliamentary activity is banned.
    Medical staff, including trainee doctors, have been ordered to return to work in 48 hours, it adds...


    Whatever it is, it's fuck all to do with the pretext under which it was declared.

    Yes - BBC just reported that any declaration of martial law can be overturned by Parliament, but if the military are refusing Parliament to sit then it’s very clear that this is taking on the air of a takeover.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    Taz said:


    (CNN)

    South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law in an unannounced late-night TV address, accusing the country’s main opposition party of sympathizing with North Korea and anti-state activities.

    “To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements… I hereby declare emergency martial law,” Yoon said in a live televised address to the nation.

    The questionis why is he REALLY doing this? Havve the young started to protest in massive enough numbers or something?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1863968406501802254

    South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung said that "Yoon Suk Yeol is no longer the president of South Korea."
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,335
    On the topic of Andy’s article: there’s an interesting line in the Labour manifesto for the most recent election:
    Labour will further reform compulsory purchase compensation rules to improve land assembly, speed up site delivery, and deliver housing, infrastructure, amenity, and transport benefits in the public interest. We will take steps to ensure that for specific types of development schemes, landowners are awarded fair compensation rather than inflated prices based on the prospect of planning permission.
    There’s a strong hint there that Labour has something along the lines of Andy’s suggested model of buying land & allocating the uplift from planning permission away from the landowner in mind.

    Whether it will actually /work/ is another question of course: the devil, as always, will be in the details.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    edited December 3
    Nunu5 said:

    Taz said:


    (CNN)

    South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law in an unannounced late-night TV address, accusing the country’s main opposition party of sympathizing with North Korea and anti-state activities.

    “To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements… I hereby declare emergency martial law,” Yoon said in a live televised address to the nation.

    The questionis why is he REALLY doing this? Havve the young started to protest in massive enough numbers or something?
    It sounds a bit like the comic “coup” in Peru.

    The President’s family were all on the take (to a ludicrous degree, even by Peruvian standards) so he announced the he was shutting down Congress and closing the TV stations.

    There was nothing in the constitution about the President having the power to shut down the legislature, so they impeached him. When the police were sent to arrest him, even his personal guards shrugged…

    It was more like an angry toddler being sent to bed, than a counter coup.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    edited December 3
    Phil said:

    On the topic of Andy’s article: there’s an interesting line in the Labour manifesto for the most recent election:

    Labour will further reform compulsory purchase compensation rules to improve land assembly, speed up site delivery, and deliver housing, infrastructure, amenity, and transport benefits in the public interest. We will take steps to ensure that for specific types of development schemes, landowners are awarded fair compensation rather than inflated prices based on the prospect of planning permission.
    ----------------

    There’s a strong hint there that Labour has something along the lines of Andy’s suggested model of buying land & allocating the uplift from planning permission away from the landowner in mind.

    Whether it will actually /work/ is another question of course: the devil, as always, will be in the details.
    -----------------

    They better get a shift on.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    edited December 3

    Phil said:

    On the topic of Andy’s article: there’s an interesting line in the Labour manifesto for the most recent election:

    Labour will further reform compulsory purchase compensation rules to improve land assembly, speed up site delivery, and deliver housing, infrastructure, amenity, and transport benefits in the public interest. We will take steps to ensure that for specific types of development schemes, landowners are awarded fair compensation rather than inflated prices based on the prospect of planning permission.
    ----------------

    There’s a strong hint there that Labour has something along the lines of Andy’s suggested model of buying land & allocating the uplift from planning permission away from the landowner in mind.

    Whether it will actually /work/ is another question of course: the devil, as always, will be in the details.
    -----------------

    They better get a shift on.

    It’s already enacted in law that this can be done - buy land at less than the full uplift from planning.

    So they don’t have the guts to actually do it - so pass another law they won’t use.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,335
    edited December 3

    Phil said:

    On the topic of Andy’s article: there’s an interesting line in the Labour manifesto for the most recent election:

    Whether it will actually /work/ is another question of course: the devil, as always, will be in the details.

    They better get a shift on.
    It’s already enacted in law that this can be done - buy land at less than the full uplift from planning.

    So they don’t have the guts to actually do it - so pass another law they won’t use.
    Can Councils do it, or is this a power restricted to central government? I haven’t heard this before!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Nunu5 said:

    Taz said:


    (CNN)

    South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law in an unannounced late-night TV address, accusing the country’s main opposition party of sympathizing with North Korea and anti-state activities.

    “To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements… I hereby declare emergency martial law,” Yoon said in a live televised address to the nation.

    The questionis why is he REALLY doing this? Havve the young started to protest in massive enough numbers or something?
    Because he thinks he might get away with it ?

    While it's been a pretty stable democracy for three decades, there have been some indications all isn't well.
    Are there gave always been plenty of both fanatics and the corrupt in Korean politics.

    And one of their historically still most popular presidents ruled as a dictator for quite some time.

    Several ruling party politicians were about to be impeached, and he might have thought he was next ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405

    Nunu5 said:

    Taz said:


    (CNN)

    South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law in an unannounced late-night TV address, accusing the country’s main opposition party of sympathizing with North Korea and anti-state activities.

    “To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements… I hereby declare emergency martial law,” Yoon said in a live televised address to the nation.

    The questionis why is he REALLY doing this? Havve the young started to protest in massive enough numbers or something?
    It sounds a bit like the comic “coup” in Peru.

    The President’s family were all on the take (to a ludicrous degree, even by Peruvian standards) so he announced the he was shutting down Congress and closing the TV stations.

    There was nothing in the constitution about the President having the power to shut down the legislature, so they impeached him. When the police were sent to arrest him, even his personal guards shrugged…

    It was more like an angry toddler being sent to bed, than a counter coup.
    The salary for being president is apparently $50,000 a year which doesn't seem very much. I guess there's associated perks of the job.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,916

    Nunu5 said:

    Taz said:


    (CNN)

    South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law in an unannounced late-night TV address, accusing the country’s main opposition party of sympathizing with North Korea and anti-state activities.

    “To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements… I hereby declare emergency martial law,” Yoon said in a live televised address to the nation.

    The questionis why is he REALLY doing this? Havve the young started to protest in massive enough numbers or something?
    It sounds a bit like the comic “coup” in Peru.

    The President’s family were all on the take (to a ludicrous degree, even by Peruvian standards) so he announced the he was shutting down Congress and closing the TV stations.

    There was nothing in the constitution about the President having the power to shut down the legislature, so they impeached him. When the police were sent to arrest him, even his personal guards shrugged…

    It was more like an angry toddler being sent to bed, than a counter coup.
    We have to hope that this is a try-on by the President that collapses and doesn’t progress to something more sinister. At present it doesn’t quite feel like what you suggest. Closing parliament and restricting the press is a big step. It feels like the big question will be what happens to the protests and how they are dealt with.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    Wasn't our Leon just in S Korea?

  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,111
    The approval ratings of the President attempting the coup are positively Truss-ian.


  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,880
    edited December 3
    Brains Trust Question:

    Does anyone have a view on where annuity rates are going over the short and medium term?

    I currently have a smallish fund (well under £100k) left over from when I opted out of the State Second Pension scheme around 1991, and I am of an age to take it now. Ironcially it's still with whoever took over Equitable Life, as I could never find anywhere else sensible to put such a small amount.

    (Clearly I need some professional advice, especially as I will get a Type I Diabetes enhancement of some sort, and potentially a Leukemia one as well. Apparently I'm supposed to die early; not my intention.)

    Aside: I think I note that the age at which pensions can be taken is increasing from 55 to 57 in 2028, so for some it may be worth looking now if you reach 55 between now and then, and don't want to find the start line has suddenly moved away waspishly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Bloody hell.

    "South Korea declares martial law as MPs blocked from parliament"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/03/south-korea-martial-law/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Andy_JS said:

    Bloody hell.

    "South Korea declares martial law as MPs blocked from parliament"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/03/south-korea-martial-law/

    !!

    Where's Leon?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    Sorta on-topic:

    I've just been to a local consultation for East-West rail, a new proposed rail line from Bedford to Cambridge, to link up with the currently-reopening Oxford to Bedford route. It was held in a hotel in the village, and I sauntered in on time. It became very busy, curtailing my examination of the large printed detailed maps. Darn them!

    A few points:
    *) People were genuinely inquisitive. A couple of people were concerned that it was going to run close to their homes; in one case "at the bottom of my garden". That lady was very relieved to learn that, as her garden was not over half a kilometre long, it was not true. People seem to believe the impact would be greater than it is. Having the land/line profile on the maps helped people to see if it would be visible from their homes or gardens.

    *) The maps (which I had already viewed online) are surprisingly detailed, though it is clear that it is only broad detail. A great deal of time, effort and money has gone into refining the route for a project that might still be cancelled. But I guess this work will all be needed for the official planning process.

    *) Many people cannot read maps / cannot orientate themselves on maps, which made some of the work of the staff more difficult - especially as they were not local themselves.

    *) A couple of dozen people were waiting to come in as I left. It felt genuinely popular, though that might just have been an opening rush (they are open for five hours this afternoon and evening).

    *) My main concerns are access from the village, which seems to be rather poor for what will probably be quite a busy route.

    *) A group of half a dozen anti-EWR people had set up outside the hotel as I left. They appeared to be talking to themselves.

    I know it might seem an unnecessary step in the process, but from talking to people there, I think it did a lot of good. Certainly a couple of people seemed less fearful of the project afterwards.

    "Many people cannot read maps".

    Another terrible inditement of our glorious education system.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835

    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1863968406501802254

    South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung said that "Yoon Suk Yeol is no longer the president of South Korea."

    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1863971846862909548

    'The leader of Korea's “Democratic Party,” which controls the parliament is trying to get to the National Assembly.

    The broadcast shows him trying to get into the parliament building by climbing over a fence."
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Modi's India is an example which is democratic but not liberal. That model will do better over the next decade than ours but for me, and many others, it is not equivalent just because there are elections. Enjoy your forthcoming periods of authoritarian rule, hopefully the UK can just about be a rare holdout but I doubt it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:


    Where did you get that from please?

    I can use it for the afternoon thread.
    The underlyings are here: https://civiqs.com/results/economy_us_now?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&net=true&party=Republican

    The chart is from the NYTimes, but I can't find the exact link.
    Why does it stop on election day ?
    I think there's been quite a bounce in Republican views on the economy since then.
    Look closely: It doesn't stop on election day! It's just that there's only about a month of data post election. (Or maybe less, as they probably don't poll every day.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    On the topic of Andy’s article: there’s an interesting line in the Labour manifesto for the most recent election:

    Whether it will actually /work/ is another question of course: the devil, as always, will be in the details.

    They better get a shift on.
    It’s already enacted in law that this can be done - buy land at less than the full uplift from planning.

    So they don’t have the guts to actually do it - so pass another law they won’t use.
    Can Councils do it, or is this a power restricted to central government? I haven’t heard this before!
    Central government - minster OKs a council request to do this, IIRC.

    Was enacted by the last government.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    It's hard to see a liberal government manifesting by any route other than elections. They're fighting with one arm tied behind their back in this regard. Illiberals have both the democratic and non-democratic route available to them. Not fair.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Are we ?
    That sounds like self-serving MAGA reasoning.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:

    It's partisan-driven misconceptions about the economy, stupid.
    One side is a lot more partisan that the other though. Democrats have a bias; Republicans have religious fervour.
    It is astonishing how the Republicans are almost 100% one way, or 100% the other.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    When you say "choice", aren't you positing democracy?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Modi's India is an example which is democratic but not liberal. That model will do better over the next decade than ours but for me, and many others, it is not equivalent just because there are elections. Enjoy your forthcoming periods of authoritarian rule, hopefully the UK can just about be a rare holdout but I doubt it.
    I don't think Modi's India is a good example. India is too vast and disparate to be a democratic nation state in the sense that we historically understood it.

    I'm not talking about electing an autocrat but enacting 'illiberal' laws democratically. For example if the British people want us to pull out of all international obligations on asylum, it would be undemocratic not to do so.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,033
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, the article by @Andy_Cooke is an excellent one, and is not - I believe - a million miles different from how London expanded in the 1920s and 1930s.

    Done right, it could (a) increase the pace of housebuilding, and (b) lower council tax bills as the council would directly benefit from land appreciation.

    Not only that, but it would properly encourage competition amongst housebuilders.

    The only issue is that it effectively moves the responsibility to purchase land for development to councils and councillors. Which is good in that it's democratic. But is bad in that it results in lots of opportunity for NIMBYs to get elected.

    Thanks, Robert.
    The NIMBY issue can be avoided by using the existing method: Central Government issues a housing target for the LA to follow (as they do now).
    The LA incorporates that into its Local Plan and identifies the sites needed.
    A key difference, though, is consequence of the housing target: Central Government need to fund the LDO and initial site purchases (for the priming-the-pump stage). This requires them to think about it carefully; at the moment, they can just arbitrarily state any number they like without consequence to themselves.
    The councils HAVE to come up with the sites - which, when funded, and when infrastructure accompanies them, are a lot less NIMBY-triggering than now. The councils then have the power to dictate what sites and where - but not how many houses.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Modi's India is an example which is democratic but not liberal. That model will do better over the next decade than ours but for me, and many others, it is not equivalent just because there are elections. Enjoy your forthcoming periods of authoritarian rule, hopefully the UK can just about be a rare holdout but I doubt it.
    I don't think Modi's India is a good example. India is too vast and disparate to be a democratic nation state in the sense that we historically understood it.

    I'm not talking about electing an autocrat but enacting 'illiberal' laws democratically. For example if the British people want us to pull out of all international obligations on asylum, it would be undemocratic not to do so.
    There are plenty of illiberal laws enacted democratically.

    The joy about democracy, though, is that if people don't like them, they can always change them later.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Modi's India is an example which is democratic but not liberal. That model will do better over the next decade than ours but for me, and many others, it is not equivalent just because there are elections. Enjoy your forthcoming periods of authoritarian rule, hopefully the UK can just about be a rare holdout but I doubt it.
    I don't think Modi's India is a good example. India is too vast and disparate to be a democratic nation state in the sense that we historically understood it.

    I'm not talking about electing an autocrat but enacting 'illiberal' laws democratically. For example if the British people want us to pull out of all international obligations on asylum, it would be undemocratic not to do so.
    There are plenty of illiberal laws enacted democratically.

    The joy about democracy, though, is that if people don't like them, they can always change them later.
    That can become very difficult if the state enters into intenational agreements deliberately to tie its hands.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:

    It's partisan-driven misconceptions about the economy, stupid.
    We are getting the same thing here with the current doomfest on Starmer's Labour. Gbeebies has overtaken Sky News. The Telegraph has gone bonkers. Twatter is a political tool rather than social media.

    This will be another thing we import from the States.
    Yes. It's afflicted even the once-sane PB Tories.

    Recall the unedifying spectacle of their doing hourly commentaries on gilt yields during Budget Week with onamist fervour, only to disappear from view as the yields settled back a few days later.

    It's a sad sight. But one, I fear, we must get used to.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    When you say "choice", aren't you positing democracy?
    William is suggesting that if we lefty liberal elites want to have lefty liberal governments we're going to have to cancel elections and get into 'street fighting man' mode.

    It's something I might consider if I weren't 64.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,895
    Nigelb said:

    Sounding more and more like a coup.

    ...We can bring you more detail now on exactly what the enforcement of martial law will mean for South Korea.
    According to the Yonhap news agency, those who violate martial law can be arrested without warrant.
    In addition, all media and publishers will be under the martial law command and activities. And, as we reported earlier, parliamentary activity is banned.
    Medical staff, including trainee doctors, have been ordered to return to work in 48 hours, it adds...


    Whatever it is, it's fuck all to do with the pretext under which it was declared.

    That sounds very bad.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,435

    Sorta on-topic:

    I've just been to a local consultation for East-West rail, a new proposed rail line from Bedford to Cambridge, to link up with the currently-reopening Oxford to Bedford route. It was held in a hotel in the village, and I sauntered in on time. It became very busy, curtailing my examination of the large printed detailed maps. Darn them!

    A few points:
    *) People were genuinely inquisitive. A couple of people were concerned that it was going to run close to their homes; in one case "at the bottom of my garden". That lady was very relieved to learn that, as her garden was not over half a kilometre long, it was not true. People seem to believe the impact would be greater than it is. Having the land/line profile on the maps helped people to see if it would be visible from their homes or gardens.

    *) The maps (which I had already viewed online) are surprisingly detailed, though it is clear that it is only broad detail. A great deal of time, effort and money has gone into refining the route for a project that might still be cancelled. But I guess this work will all be needed for the official planning process.

    *) Many people cannot read maps / cannot orientate themselves on maps, which made some of the work of the staff more difficult - especially as they were not local themselves.

    *) A couple of dozen people were waiting to come in as I left. It felt genuinely popular, though that might just have been an opening rush (they are open for five hours this afternoon and evening).

    *) My main concerns are access from the village, which seems to be rather poor for what will probably be quite a busy route.

    *) A group of half a dozen anti-EWR people had set up outside the hotel as I left. They appeared to be talking to themselves.

    I know it might seem an unnecessary step in the process, but from talking to people there, I think it did a lot of good. Certainly a couple of people seemed less fearful of the project afterwards.

    "Many people cannot read maps".

    Another terrible inditement of our glorious education system.

    Since I'm 51, and felt as though i was one of the younger of the attendees at that time, I'd guess it's an indictment of long-past glorious education systems. ;)

    And to be fair to them, the 'maps' were part map, part plan, with features you might normally highlight on a map faded. I've had a little experience reading that sort of thing in the past, so my comment might be a tad unfair.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,916
    Sounds like the Parliament has been able to meet and vote to reject the declaration.

    All hinges on what happens next. What does the military do.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited December 3
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    S Korea thing looks serious.

    This is blatantly unconstitutional, but presumably intended to prevent the parties (both ruling and opposition parties have condemned the move) from voting to lift the declaration of martial law.
    ..We're now getting reports from South Korean media that the country's military has announced the suspension of all parliamentary activity.
    The Yonhap News Agency says members of the National Assembly have been banned from accessing the building...


    It is just possibly a military coup in the offing ?

    The President is massively unpopular, with an approval rating in the low 20% range.

    Starmer is taking notes.
    Lady Starmer?

    The president has faced low approval ratings due to various controversies and scandals... such as his wife .... allegedly accepting a luxury Dior handbag

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Clashes in front of the South Korean parliament:

    https://x.com/threepiecesuit/status/1863968055568822292
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,435
    I see there was a short discussion on 'the Professionals' earlier.

    There's a series on Primve called 'the New Professionals', from 1999.

    It is absolutely terrible. Sadly, not watchably terrible, like the original series is now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Modi's India is an example which is democratic but not liberal. That model will do better over the next decade than ours but for me, and many others, it is not equivalent just because there are elections. Enjoy your forthcoming periods of authoritarian rule, hopefully the UK can just about be a rare holdout but I doubt it.
    I don't think Modi's India is a good example. India is too vast and disparate to be a democratic nation state in the sense that we historically understood it.

    I'm not talking about electing an autocrat but enacting 'illiberal' laws democratically. For example if the British people want us to pull out of all international obligations on asylum, it would be undemocratic not to do so.
    There are plenty of illiberal laws enacted democratically.

    The joy about democracy, though, is that if people don't like them, they can always change them later.
    That can become very difficult if the state enters into intenational agreements deliberately to tie its hands.
    Countries exit treaty agreements all the time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Modi's India is an example which is democratic but not liberal. That model will do better over the next decade than ours but for me, and many others, it is not equivalent just because there are elections. Enjoy your forthcoming periods of authoritarian rule, hopefully the UK can just about be a rare holdout but I doubt it.
    I don't think Modi's India is a good example. India is too vast and disparate to be a democratic nation state in the sense that we historically understood it.

    I'm not talking about electing an autocrat but enacting 'illiberal' laws democratically. For example if the British people want us to pull out of all international obligations on asylum, it would be undemocratic not to do so.
    There are plenty of illiberal laws enacted democratically.

    The joy about democracy, though, is that if people don't like them, they can always change them later.
    That can become very difficult if the state enters into intenational agreements deliberately to tie its hands.
    This is a very reductive view of democracy you're peddling here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Modi's India is an example which is democratic but not liberal. That model will do better over the next decade than ours but for me, and many others, it is not equivalent just because there are elections. Enjoy your forthcoming periods of authoritarian rule, hopefully the UK can just about be a rare holdout but I doubt it.
    I don't think Modi's India is a good example. India is too vast and disparate to be a democratic nation state in the sense that we historically understood it.

    I'm not talking about electing an autocrat but enacting 'illiberal' laws democratically. For example if the British people want us to pull out of all international obligations on asylum, it would be undemocratic not to do so.
    There are plenty of illiberal laws enacted democratically.

    The joy about democracy, though, is that if people don't like them, they can always change them later.
    That can become very difficult if the state enters into intenational agreements deliberately to tie its hands.
    Countries exit treaty agreements all the time.
    Up to a point. Take my example of asylum. It would take a very determined government to pull out of its obligations.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,435

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:

    It's partisan-driven misconceptions about the economy, stupid.
    We are getting the same thing here with the current doomfest on Starmer's Labour. Gbeebies has overtaken Sky News. The Telegraph has gone bonkers. Twatter is a political tool rather than social media.

    This will be another thing we import from the States.
    Yes. It's afflicted even the once-sane PB Tories.

    Recall the unedifying spectacle of their doing hourly commentaries on gilt yields during Budget Week with onamist fervour, only to disappear from view as the yields settled back a few days later.

    It's a sad sight. But one, I fear, we must get used to.
    This 'PB Tory' has said he is going to give this government half a term (two years...) before starting to conclude whether it's doing well or badly as a broad statement.

    I think they made a series of mistakes early on, but that's rather a different thing (and they've somewhat steadied the ship since).
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Modi's India is an example which is democratic but not liberal. That model will do better over the next decade than ours but for me, and many others, it is not equivalent just because there are elections. Enjoy your forthcoming periods of authoritarian rule, hopefully the UK can just about be a rare holdout but I doubt it.
    I don't think Modi's India is a good example. India is too vast and disparate to be a democratic nation state in the sense that we historically understood it.

    I'm not talking about electing an autocrat but enacting 'illiberal' laws democratically. For example if the British people want us to pull out of all international obligations on asylum, it would be undemocratic not to do so.
    There are plenty of illiberal laws enacted democratically.

    The joy about democracy, though, is that if people don't like them, they can always change them later.
    That can become very difficult if the state enters into intenational agreements deliberately to tie its hands.
    Countries exit treaty agreements all the time.
    Up to a point. Take my example of asylum. It would take a very determined government to pull out of its obligations.
    Probably works better if ten countries announce a derogation or withdrawal at once.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Nigelb said:

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Are we ?
    That sounds like self-serving MAGA reasoning.
    Perish the thought!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Modi's India is an example which is democratic but not liberal. That model will do better over the next decade than ours but for me, and many others, it is not equivalent just because there are elections. Enjoy your forthcoming periods of authoritarian rule, hopefully the UK can just about be a rare holdout but I doubt it.
    I don't think Modi's India is a good example. India is too vast and disparate to be a democratic nation state in the sense that we historically understood it.

    I'm not talking about electing an autocrat but enacting 'illiberal' laws democratically. For example if the British people want us to pull out of all international obligations on asylum, it would be undemocratic not to do so.
    There are plenty of illiberal laws enacted democratically.

    The joy about democracy, though, is that if people don't like them, they can always change them later.
    That can become very difficult if the state enters into intenational agreements deliberately to tie its hands.
    Countries exit treaty agreements all the time.
    Up to a point. Take my example of asylum. It would take a very determined government to pull out of its obligations.
    You mean, it would take a government who saw political capital in exiting the treaty?

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,358
    Leon said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hey @Leon - US Congress select committee final report on covid says likely that it was caused by lab leak.


    "SARS-CoV-2, the Virus that Causes COVID-19, Likely Emerged Because of a Laboratory or Research Related Accident."

    https://oversight.house.gov/report/after-action-review-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-the-lessons-learned-and-a-path-forward/


    "Four years after the onset of the worst pandemic in 100 years, the weight of the evidence increasingly supports the lab leak hypothesis. Since the Select Subcommittee commenced its work in February 2023, more and more senior intelligence officials, politicians, science editors, and scientists increasingly have endorsed the hypothesis that COVID-191 emerged as the result of a laboratory or research related accident."

    The problem is that we - as humans - like certainty.

    And the issue here is that it all the evidence here is entirely circumstantial. And almost entirely comes down to one thing:

    Covid (a bat virus) originated in the same city as the Wuhan Institute of Virology (which was possibly the leading place for studying bat viruses in the world).

    All that has happened in the intervening four and a half years is that more and more people have come to think "hmmmm... seems like an awfully big coincidence." Hence the phrase "more and more senior intelligence officials, politicians, science editors, and scientists increasingly have endorsed the hypothesis that COVID-191 emerged as the result of a laboratory or research related accident".

    I.e., there's no actual new evidence. There are merely more and more people who've said "we looked at what little evidence there is, and statistically, it's highly likely that the WIV was responsible".
    On the other hand no one can come up with evidence that it came from bat-virus infected animals at the wet market. The report says none have ever been found.
    I posted a paper the other day showing not only was covid found at wet market but also other coronaviruses showing an evolutionary chain towards covid. The lab leak is possible but not supported by the available evidence. The case epidemic clearly points to wet market being source of initial cases.
    https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(24)00901-2
    Found it
    One of the authors of that paper is the notorious Kristian Andersen. He co-wrote the now debunked Nature paper “Proximal Origins” in early 2020, which completely dismissed a lab origin for Covid - because he was asked to do this by Fauci et al. They wanted to squash the lab leak hypothesis. All this is now incontestable. Public record

    Days before he co-wrote Proximal Origins Andersen wrote to another virologist in an email (later forcibly made public) that Lab leak is just “so friggin’ likely because they were already doing this type of work and the molecular data is fully consistent with that scenario.”


    https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/the-lie-the-century-the-origin-covid-19

    Indeed in private emails for months afterward Andersen admitted lab leak was highly plausible
    A rather pitiful ad hominid attempt, particularly since the author doesn't think that any more!
    The public record is that he originally thought lab leak very plausible until new scientific evidence emerged making it very likely. That's what good scientists do... they update their views based on evidence.
    Scientist Opens Up About His Early Email to Fauci on Virus Origins https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/14/science/covid-lab-leak-fauci-kristian-andersen.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    Modi's India is an example which is democratic but not liberal. That model will do better over the next decade than ours but for me, and many others, it is not equivalent just because there are elections. Enjoy your forthcoming periods of authoritarian rule, hopefully the UK can just about be a rare holdout but I doubt it.
    I don't think Modi's India is a good example. India is too vast and disparate to be a democratic nation state in the sense that we historically understood it.

    I'm not talking about electing an autocrat but enacting 'illiberal' laws democratically. For example if the British people want us to pull out of all international obligations on asylum, it would be undemocratic not to do so.
    There are plenty of illiberal laws enacted democratically.

    The joy about democracy, though, is that if people don't like them, they can always change them later.
    That can become very difficult if the state enters into intenational agreements deliberately to tie its hands.
    This is a very reductive view of democracy you're peddling here.
    Not really. I accept that sometimes it might be necesary to override the 'will of the people'. You can't let populism run riot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    I can't pretend to know much about South Korea but I have done some work there and I find it very hard to believe that this martial law thing is going to make it to the weekend.

    I know very little, but hope that's the outcome.

    We don't want to lose democratic allies to authoritarians.
    I expect the liberal democratic world to shrink significantly. More than halve over a decade or so. Modern tech and media favours the "strong" men.
    It was a mistake to think that 'liberal' and 'democratic' have to go together. In the West we're increasingly faced with a choice about which one we want to keep.
    When you say "choice", aren't you positing democracy?
    I think william seems to be saying elect his mates or suffer the consequences.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:

    It's partisan-driven misconceptions about the economy, stupid.
    We are getting the same thing here with the current doomfest on Starmer's Labour. Gbeebies has overtaken Sky News. The Telegraph has gone bonkers. Twatter is a political tool rather than social media.

    This will be another thing we import from the States.
    Yes. It's afflicted even the once-sane PB Tories.

    Recall the unedifying spectacle of their doing hourly commentaries on gilt yields during Budget Week with onamist fervour, only to disappear from view as the yields settled back a few days later.

    It's a sad sight. But one, I fear, we must get used to.
    This 'PB Tory' has said he is going to give this government half a term (two years...) before starting to conclude whether it's doing well or badly as a broad statement.

    I think they made a series of mistakes early on, but that's rather a different thing (and they've somewhat steadied the ship since).
    Yes fair enough, and fair play.

    (although it is news to me that you are a Tory – for some reason I thought you were a Lib!)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,932
    edited December 3
    MattW said:

    Brains Trust Question:

    Does anyone have a view on where annuity rates are going over the short and medium term?

    I currently have a smallish fund (well under £100k) left over from when I opted out of the State Second Pension scheme around 1991, and I am of an age to take it now. Ironcially it's still with whoever took over Equitable Life, as I could never find anywhere else sensible to put such a small amount.

    (Clearly I need some professional advice, especially as I will get a Type I Diabetes enhancement of some sort, and potentially a Leukemia one as well. Apparently I'm supposed to die early; not my intention.)

    Aside: I think I note that the age at which pensions can be taken is increasing from 55 to 57 in 2028, so for some it may be worth looking now if you reach 55 between now and then, and don't want to find the start line has suddenly moved away waspishly.

    Do you have another fund to combine it with to get lower charge percentages? Why convert to an annuity? Why not go for a drawdown (although by itself under £100k isn't a lot).

    Obviously if you can get enhancements on an annuity and then stuff them by living to 120 that seems a good plan, but I like the control of a drawdown. I have good genes (I hope) so an annuity should be attractive, but I have still gone for a drawdown for the control even though I don't have any other income to fall back on. However I do have quite a bit in savings and a lot in our properties to compensate.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668

    Sounds like the Parliament has been able to meet and vote to reject the declaration.

    All hinges on what happens next. What does the military do.

    The Korean people will not meekly accept a coup, for that is what it will be now that the Parliament has rejected martial law. They will demonstrate in very large numbers right across the country. I may be wrong but I think a lot of the Korean army - which is very big - is made up of young men doing national service. They will be facing off against friends and family, if that's what it comes to. They will not like it one bit. I do not see how this ends in anything other than failure. The only question is how much blood will be spilled first.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,694

    Nigelb said:

    Sounding more and more like a coup.

    ...We can bring you more detail now on exactly what the enforcement of martial law will mean for South Korea.
    According to the Yonhap news agency, those who violate martial law can be arrested without warrant.
    In addition, all media and publishers will be under the martial law command and activities. And, as we reported earlier, parliamentary activity is banned.
    Medical staff, including trainee doctors, have been ordered to return to work in 48 hours, it adds...


    Whatever it is, it's fuck all to do with the pretext under which it was declared.

    That sounds very bad.
    Son with a Korean contract is hosting some Korean customers over here. He 'thinks' his contract is OK, but his customers are very worried.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    Wow.

    Blistering paper by Dieter Helm on the current situation with renewables and UK (and world) move towards net zero etc etc.

    Ed Miliband will most certainly not enjoy reading this one.

    https://dieterhelm.co.uk/energy-climate/climate-realism-time-for-a-re-set/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    BBC
    Photos of tanks lining the streets are circulating online, sparking confusion and concern.
    Ra Ji-soo, a Seoul resident, reports hearing helicopters near her home. She also shares that a friend in the police force has received an emergency mobilisation order and was on their way to the station.
    Kim Mi-rim, another Seoul resident, has packed an emergency kit, fearing the situation might escalate. She recalls that previous instances of martial law involved arrests and imprisonment.
    Meanwhile, journalists in Seoul are co-ordinating closely, sharing advice on how to stay cautious. With martial law in effect, all media and publishing activities will fall under strict government control...


    It is of course past midnight over there.
    What's going on will be clearer in the morning, but it sounds as though large parts of the army may be on board, and have de facto suspended the constitution, even if they haven't publicly admitted as much.

    This is not good at all.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,435
    edited December 3

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is an astonishing chart:

    It's partisan-driven misconceptions about the economy, stupid.
    We are getting the same thing here with the current doomfest on Starmer's Labour. Gbeebies has overtaken Sky News. The Telegraph has gone bonkers. Twatter is a political tool rather than social media.

    This will be another thing we import from the States.
    Yes. It's afflicted even the once-sane PB Tories.

    Recall the unedifying spectacle of their doing hourly commentaries on gilt yields during Budget Week with onamist fervour, only to disappear from view as the yields settled back a few days later.

    It's a sad sight. But one, I fear, we must get used to.
    This 'PB Tory' has said he is going to give this government half a term (two years...) before starting to conclude whether it's doing well or badly as a broad statement.

    I think they made a series of mistakes early on, but that's rather a different thing (and they've somewhat steadied the ship since).
    Yes fair enough, and fair play.

    (although it is news to me that you are a Tory – for some reason I thought you were a Lib!)
    We are all PB Tories now, Comrade :)

    I am not particularly anything politically; I've never joined a party. I generally voted Conservative during Cameron's time, but not since Boris was elected. I voted Lib Dem at the last election, in part because the Labour candidate was phoning in her effort.

    I'm a political tart; if you can tempt me, I'll vote for you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Apparently, nearly 200 reps issued the National Assembly have voted to overturn martial law and dismiss the President.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    Nigelb said:

    BBC
    Photos of tanks lining the streets are circulating online, sparking confusion and concern.
    Ra Ji-soo, a Seoul resident, reports hearing helicopters near her home. She also shares that a friend in the police force has received an emergency mobilisation order and was on their way to the station.
    Kim Mi-rim, another Seoul resident, has packed an emergency kit, fearing the situation might escalate. She recalls that previous instances of martial law involved arrests and imprisonment.
    Meanwhile, journalists in Seoul are co-ordinating closely, sharing advice on how to stay cautious. With martial law in effect, all media and publishing activities will fall under strict government control...


    It is of course past midnight over there.
    What's going on will be clearer in the morning, but it sounds as though large parts of the army may be on board, and have de facto suspended the constitution, even if they haven't publicly admitted as much.

    This is not good at all.

    It seems that Korean TV stations are still reporting events live and without interference, so have not been seized. They would be a first point of call if this was a big, organised coup.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,471

    Sorta on-topic:

    I've just been to a local consultation for East-West rail, a new proposed rail line from Bedford to Cambridge, to link up with the currently-reopening Oxford to Bedford route. It was held in a hotel in the village, and I sauntered in on time. It became very busy, curtailing my examination of the large printed detailed maps. Darn them!

    A few points:
    *) People were genuinely inquisitive. A couple of people were concerned that it was going to run close to their homes; in one case "at the bottom of my garden". That lady was very relieved to learn that, as her garden was not over half a kilometre long, it was not true. People seem to believe the impact would be greater than it is. Having the land/line profile on the maps helped people to see if it would be visible from their homes or gardens.

    *) The maps (which I had already viewed online) are surprisingly detailed, though it is clear that it is only broad detail. A great deal of time, effort and money has gone into refining the route for a project that might still be cancelled. But I guess this work will all be needed for the official planning process.

    *) Many people cannot read maps / cannot orientate themselves on maps, which made some of the work of the staff more difficult - especially as they were not local themselves.

    *) A couple of dozen people were waiting to come in as I left. It felt genuinely popular, though that might just have been an opening rush (they are open for five hours this afternoon and evening).

    *) My main concerns are access from the village, which seems to be rather poor for what will probably be quite a busy route.

    *) A group of half a dozen anti-EWR people had set up outside the hotel as I left. They appeared to be talking to themselves.

    I know it might seem an unnecessary step in the process, but from talking to people there, I think it did a lot of good. Certainly a couple of people seemed less fearful of the project afterwards.

    "Many people cannot read maps".

    Another terrible inditement of our glorious education system.

    Ahem. Indictment.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    Sorta on-topic:

    I've just been to a local consultation for East-West rail, a new proposed rail line from Bedford to Cambridge, to link up with the currently-reopening Oxford to Bedford route. It was held in a hotel in the village, and I sauntered in on time. It became very busy, curtailing my examination of the large printed detailed maps. Darn them!

    A few points:
    *) People were genuinely inquisitive. A couple of people were concerned that it was going to run close to their homes; in one case "at the bottom of my garden". That lady was very relieved to learn that, as her garden was not over half a kilometre long, it was not true. People seem to believe the impact would be greater than it is. Having the land/line profile on the maps helped people to see if it would be visible from their homes or gardens.

    *) The maps (which I had already viewed online) are surprisingly detailed, though it is clear that it is only broad detail. A great deal of time, effort and money has gone into refining the route for a project that might still be cancelled. But I guess this work will all be needed for the official planning process.

    *) Many people cannot read maps / cannot orientate themselves on maps, which made some of the work of the staff more difficult - especially as they were not local themselves.

    *) A couple of dozen people were waiting to come in as I left. It felt genuinely popular, though that might just have been an opening rush (they are open for five hours this afternoon and evening).

    *) My main concerns are access from the village, which seems to be rather poor for what will probably be quite a busy route.

    *) A group of half a dozen anti-EWR people had set up outside the hotel as I left. They appeared to be talking to themselves.

    I know it might seem an unnecessary step in the process, but from talking to people there, I think it did a lot of good. Certainly a couple of people seemed less fearful of the project afterwards.

    "Many people cannot read maps".

    Another terrible inditement of our glorious education system.

    Ahem. Indictment.
    LOL.

    Whoops.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    edited December 3
    Parliament votes against martial law decree. All 190 members who were able to enter the main hall voted in favor of the bill. None voted against
    https://x.com/josungkim/status/1863977059766370677

    Which way does the army now jump ?

    (The assembly has 300 members.)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,916

    Sounds like the Parliament has been able to meet and vote to reject the declaration.

    All hinges on what happens next. What does the military do.

    The Korean people will not meekly accept a coup, for that is what it will be now that the Parliament has rejected martial law. They will demonstrate in very large numbers right across the country. I may be wrong but I think a lot of the Korean army - which is very big - is made up of young men doing national service. They will be facing off against friends and family, if that's what it comes to. They will not like it one bit. I do not see how this ends in anything other than failure. The only question is how much blood will be spilled first.

    A lot of the South Korean correspondents on the BBC seem quite assured that this is going to rebound on the President and isn't going to lead to a military crackdown now that the parliament has rejected the declaration. I hope that is right.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,435
    I've never had house cats before, so I've just come across a weird scientific phenomena.

    When a cat is asleep on your arm or lap, it is impossible to get up. You have to stay there, however much you need to get up to pee. You can only get up when the cat finally moves.

    Have any papers ever been written on this phenomena?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,435
    Other countries yet again making our politics look sane and professional.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Nigelb said:

    BBC
    Photos of tanks lining the streets are circulating online, sparking confusion and concern.
    Ra Ji-soo, a Seoul resident, reports hearing helicopters near her home. She also shares that a friend in the police force has received an emergency mobilisation order and was on their way to the station.
    Kim Mi-rim, another Seoul resident, has packed an emergency kit, fearing the situation might escalate. She recalls that previous instances of martial law involved arrests and imprisonment.
    Meanwhile, journalists in Seoul are co-ordinating closely, sharing advice on how to stay cautious. With martial law in effect, all media and publishing activities will fall under strict government control...


    It is of course past midnight over there.
    What's going on will be clearer in the morning, but it sounds as though large parts of the army may be on board, and have de facto suspended the constitution, even if they haven't publicly admitted as much.

    This is not good at all.

    It seems that Korean TV stations are still reporting events live and without interference, so have not been seized. They would be a first point of call if this was a big, organised coup.

    Pretty brave of them.
    Democratic norms are not that long established in S Korea - but they were extremely hard won, and I don't think will be surrendered without a fight.

    While the National Assembly held a plenary session to lift martial law on the 4th, martial law forces were seen breaking windows and attempting to enter the National Assembly building. Captured from @mbcnews..
    https://x.com/yejinjgim/status/1863976953860018665
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