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Following in Ted Heath’s footsteps – politicalbetting.com

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    Good call. That’s the circle eternally run by Starmer’s Labour Government. Perfect punishment for Boris Johnson’s crimes 😆
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,811
    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    The table they have Baxtered (or whatever) would be completely hilarious. Either Labour and Tory form an alliance or it's more or less impossible to form a government without both Reform and the LDs.
    They’re showing Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood losing to independents, so presumably this assumes a growing contingent of Islam-focused MPs.
    Both have pretty small majorities, Streeting in particular only just clung on, it will be interesting if the Gaza Bros (and Gals) becomes an enduring aspect of our elections moving forward.
    The establishment of what amounts to a religious party in the UK parliament is noteworthy. Surprised it hasn't been more remarked upon. The politicisation of Islam may prove to be irreversible and presents a real problem for Labour if it permanently detaches part of their voting coalition at a time when other groups which traditionally vote Labour (notably Hindus) are moving away at quite a speed anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    edited November 28

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    algarkirk said:

    Just abolish local councils would be my preference.

    Zero tiers rather than 1, 2 or 3.

    10 Downing Street to organise the bin collection rota?
    Just put it out to tender.

    Why do politicians need to be involved?
    Offering some thought to the above - you "could" have a single national refuse collection contract overseen by OFCRAP or something similar. Every landfill or civic amenity site, every refuse disposal vehicle and all the staff would be transferred to the new provider who would function as the National Refuse Collection Authority.

    The NCRA would provide the same level of service across the whole country and every property would have no more than two bins - one for the general refuse and one for everythign which can be recycled. It would provide extra bins for commercial refuse. Via a sensor in the bin, each household could decide if it wanted a weekly, fortnightly or monthly rubbish collection and would be charged accordingly.

    Feasible? Perhaps - not sure of the costs or viability but we'd have a more homogenous service which should be the same in Guildford, Gosport or Gateshead.
    Are large providers more efficient than small?

    I know the 'economies of scale' argument, but aren't they stereotypically inflexible, with reduced local influence and no need to adapt?

    Suppose I'm naturally resistant to big consolidations. Can't look past monopolies being a poor option even in the public sector. Would favour local providers alla Preston. At least the money stays local.
    Of course - I was responding to @BartholomewRoberts and his half-witted comment about abolishing all local Government.
    I won’t let them do it Stodge. I won’t let them boil you in a bag. It would be so unfair!
    You’re not a bunny boiler.
    My Nan boiled fruitcake in cloth. 😋

    And she made the best Stollen. I try to do it the same, no sugar, no marzipan, but it’s always not spicy enough or too spicy, not just right like she always made it.

    God bless nan 🪽
    More nutmeg, fewer cloves ?

    No marzipan, though ??
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited November 28
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Gregg Wallace sounds a right charmer....who the f##k does half this stuff. Footballers / rugby back in the day, but its a slightly different setting and not today.

    What did he do? Rape someone? I LOVE Masterchef and it is literally the last contact I have with the BBC

    That is honestly it, otherwise for me it is a broadcasting network roughly on a par with Dave 2
    He's the least necessary part if it, though.

    Did you do Culinary Culture Wars yet ?
    Tried. In Korea. Didn't do it for me
    First episode was slow, but the rest was better than Masterchef, IMO.
    Then again, I like K culture.
    Genuine question, is it fiction or non fiction? The first episode is not entirely clear!

    Also, Korea is... depressing. I wish that wasn't true but its birth rate is so bad it seems to point to the maudlin future of all of us. And I really like South Korea as a concept (tho you missed the best bit, the DMZ)

    Korea is so childless you actually notice it. The childless towns. All the old people (including me, as an observer). It's grim
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585

    Every pensioner household in Scotland will receive a winter fuel payment next year, the Scottish government has announced.

    Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said those in receipt of qualifying benefits like Pension Credit would get £200 or £300 depending on their age, while all others would get £100.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6kl7ywe07o

    Got to ask how they will work out who gets what - because that isn't going to be cheap and I doubt they have the datasets...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835

    I've just made my biggest individual purchase of at least the last two years

    I've spent £285 on a 30 litre mash boiler for beer brewing

    Well, I've just paid that much, but I've spent half of it. I'm going full into home brewing with my best mate

    I live in a tiny townhouse, he lives in a decent size farmhouse (but not a farm), with plenty of space for our new hobby

    Our aim is to replace our beer buying with our brewing, which would save us both quite a bit of cash

    If we can do it well, we've got room to expand

    I always wondered how much cheaper it actually ends up? Cos baking bread isn't really that much cheaper (not when factoring in your own time), but its a much better product.
    Bread is less taxed. Suspect it's harder to make a better product though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012
    edited November 28

    Every pensioner household in Scotland will receive a winter fuel payment next year, the Scottish government has announced.

    Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said those in receipt of qualifying benefits like Pension Credit would get £200 or £300 depending on their age, while all others would get £100.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6kl7ywe07o

    FFS. We have a bill of £200-300m because our public sector is more bloated than anyone elses and the differentials have left us short. So we throw more money towards some of the richest in our society? Its a disgrace. These muppets are what the late Denis Healey had in mind when he talked about whelk stalls.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 28
    eek said:

    Every pensioner household in Scotland will receive a winter fuel payment next year, the Scottish government has announced.

    Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said those in receipt of qualifying benefits like Pension Credit would get £200 or £300 depending on their age, while all others would get £100.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6kl7ywe07o

    Got to ask how they will work out who gets what - because that isn't going to be cheap and I doubt they have the datasets...
    "will be paid through a new Scottish Parliament benefit, which will not be ready until late 2025." - That sounds like a new computer system, and as we know, governments and technology, it always works out great.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,690
    edited November 28

    I've just made my biggest individual purchase of at least the last two years

    I've spent £285 on a 30 litre mash boiler for beer brewing

    Well, I've just paid that much, but I've spent half of it. I'm going full into home brewing with my best mate

    I live in a tiny townhouse, he lives in a decent size farmhouse (but not a farm), with plenty of space for our new hobby

    Our aim is to replace our beer buying with our brewing, which would save us both quite a bit of cash

    If we can do it well, we've got room to expand

    I always wondered how much cheaper it actually ends up? Cos baking bread isn't really that much cheaper (not when factoring in your own time), but its a much better product.
    'bout 50p a pint if you stick to the basic malts and styles*. Anything fancy and double it.

    Excluding man hours, all the sanitising and stirring and bottling and washing takes time.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    The absolute arses who voted both for them and Starmer must be reassessing their ability to extrapolate, don't you think ?
    Quite so

    Personally, I'd exile them to Uruguay. Or even Bulgaria. Or, fuck it, Uzbekistan

    LET THEM BE GONE
    I think he’s referring to you, bro. 😶
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882
    ohnotnow said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    May lead to a reduction in councillors but also could lead to less local links from councils. Voters who currently have a district council based in their town could instead end up with a Unitary authority based in a city or large town at the other end of the county if more counties see County and District councils merged into Unitaries.

    Would therefore need to see stronger Parish and Town Councils too if the proposals are to work properly

    Some parish councils have 200 inhabitants and a part-time clark. How would you make these stronger?
    Tanks.
    I think Parish Councils would need more authority (not sure over what), and we would need to see whether the Captain Mainwarings retired to build model steam trains or breed pigeons.

    We need a Last of the Summer Whine facility to keep them occupied.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited November 28

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    The absolute arses who voted both for them and Starmer must be reassessing their ability to extrapolate, don't you think ?
    Quite so

    Personally, I'd exile them to Uruguay. Or even Bulgaria. Or, fuck it, Uzbekistan

    LET THEM BE GONE
    I think he’s referring to you, bro. 😶
    Er, yeah, I know

    whoooooooooooosh

    I made this point clear by referring to places I am personally hoping to visit in 2025. Fucksake
  • eek said:

    Every pensioner household in Scotland will receive a winter fuel payment next year, the Scottish government has announced.

    Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said those in receipt of qualifying benefits like Pension Credit would get £200 or £300 depending on their age, while all others would get £100.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6kl7ywe07o

    Got to ask how they will work out who gets what - because that isn't going to be cheap and I doubt they have the datasets...
    "will be paid through a new Scottish Parliament benefit, which will not be ready until late 2025." - That sounds like a new computer system, and as we know, governments and technology, it always works out great.
    So just before the May 2026 Holyrood elections.

    That's convenient.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882
    DavidL said:

    Every pensioner household in Scotland will receive a winter fuel payment next year, the Scottish government has announced.

    Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said those in receipt of qualifying benefits like Pension Credit would get £200 or £300 depending on their age, while all others would get £100.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6kl7ywe07o

    FFS. We have a bill of £200-300m because our public sector is more bloated than anyone elses and the differentials have left us short. So we throw more money towards some of the richest in our society? Its a disgrace. These muppets are what the late Denis Healey had in mind when he talked about whelk stalls.
    Richest? They could exclude lawyers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    DavidL said:

    Every pensioner household in Scotland will receive a winter fuel payment next year, the Scottish government has announced.

    Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said those in receipt of qualifying benefits like Pension Credit would get £200 or £300 depending on their age, while all others would get £100.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6kl7ywe07o

    FFS. We have a bill of £200-300m because our public sector is more bloated than anyone elses and the differentials have left us short. So we throw more money towards some of the richest in our society? Its a disgrace. These muppets are what the late Denis Healey had in mind when he talked about whelk stalls.
    The Conbservatives, and LDs, and Labour (sort of), want this ...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012

    eek said:

    Every pensioner household in Scotland will receive a winter fuel payment next year, the Scottish government has announced.

    Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said those in receipt of qualifying benefits like Pension Credit would get £200 or £300 depending on their age, while all others would get £100.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6kl7ywe07o

    Got to ask how they will work out who gets what - because that isn't going to be cheap and I doubt they have the datasets...
    "will be paid through a new Scottish Parliament benefit, which will not be ready until late 2025." - That sounds like a new computer system, and as we know, governments and technology, it always works out great.
    Its almost like we will have an election early in 2026 isn't it?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Gregg Wallace sounds a right charmer....who the f##k does half this stuff. Footballers / rugby back in the day, but its a slightly different setting and not today.

    What did he do? Rape someone? I LOVE Masterchef and it is literally the last contact I have with the BBC

    That is honestly it, otherwise for me it is a broadcasting network roughly on a par with Dave 2
    He's the least necessary part if it, though.

    Did you do Culinary Culture Wars yet ?
    Tried. In Korea. Didn't do it for me
    First episode was slow, but the rest was better than Masterchef, IMO.
    Then again, I like K culture.
    Genuine question, is it fiction or non fiction? The first episode is not entirely clear!

    Also, Korea is... depressing. I wish that wasn't true but its birth rate is so bad it seems to point to the maudlin future of all of us. And I really like South Korea as a concept (tho you missed the best bit, the DMZ)

    Korea is so childless you actually notice it. The childless towns. All the old people (including me, as an observer). It's grim
    No, absolutely genuine. The silly braggadocio of the first episode is a bit misleading.
    (Good rule of thumb for a lot of Korean series is don't dismiss them on the basis of Ep1.)

    The tofu cook off near the end was just brilliant.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,443
    >
    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    algarkirk said:

    Just abolish local councils would be my preference.

    Zero tiers rather than 1, 2 or 3.

    10 Downing Street to organise the bin collection rota?
    Just put it out to tender.

    Why do politicians need to be involved?
    Offering some thought to the above - you "could" have a single national refuse collection contract overseen by OFCRAP or something similar. Every landfill or civic amenity site, every refuse disposal vehicle and all the staff would be transferred to the new provider who would function as the National Refuse Collection Authority.

    The NCRA would provide the same level of service across the whole country and every property would have no more than two bins - one for the general refuse and one for everythign which can be recycled. It would provide extra bins for commercial refuse. Via a sensor in the bin, each household could decide if it wanted a weekly, fortnightly or monthly rubbish collection and would be charged accordingly.

    Feasible? Perhaps - not sure of the costs or viability but we'd have a more homogenous service which should be the same in Guildford, Gosport or Gateshead.
    Are large providers more efficient than small?

    I know the 'economies of scale' argument, but aren't they stereotypically inflexible, with reduced local influence and no need to adapt?

    Suppose I'm naturally resistant to big consolidations. Can't look past monopolies being a poor option even in the public sector. Would favour local providers alla Preston. At least the money stays local.
    Of course - I was responding to @BartholomewRoberts and his half-witted comment about abolishing all local Government.
    I won’t let them do it Stodge. I won’t let them boil you in a bag. It would be so unfair!
    You’re not a bunny boiler.
    My Nan boiled fruitcake in cloth. 😋

    And she made the best Stollen. I try to do it the same, no sugar, no marzipan, but it’s always not spicy enough or too spicy, not just right like she always made it.

    God bless nan 🪽
    Ooh, clootie dumpling as discussed earlier ...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835
    Lots of interest in the BBC's article:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l95750v08o

    Including: "Louise Haigh is a former Special Constable, a volunteer police officer with full powers of arrest who served with the Metropolitan Police until 2011."

    Two problems I think. One, what if she's lying now in her comments to the BBC and is disproven. Two, she says she disclosed to Starmer in 2020 before being appointed minister. What was he doing overlooking a conviction involving dishonesty, no matter how slight the punishment? Convictions involving dishonesty are special - courts will routinely tell juries about them, even when previous convictions are normally hidden, because it goes to credibility of testimony.

    She probably gets away with hiding it from the Party, since the conviction happened 6 months before the 2015 election when she had presumably already been selected (but did the referral to police happen before selection?)

    Drip drip drip on this I suspect.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    Still a high water mark that subsequent Governments can use to demonstrate how much better they've done.

    Although as someone on Bluesky has just pointed out talking about such things has a habit of pushing voters towards the party offering the most restricted immigration policy...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 28
    carnforth said:

    Lots of interest in the BBC's article:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l95750v08o

    Including: "Louise Haigh is a former Special Constable, a volunteer police officer with full powers of arrest who served with the Metropolitan Police until 2011."

    Two problems I think. One, what if she's lying now in her comments to the BBC and is disproven. Two, she says she disclosed to Starmer in 2020 before being appointed minister. What was he doing overlooking a conviction involving dishonesty, no matter how slight the punishment? Convictions involving dishonesty are special - courts will routinely tell juries about them, even when previous convictions are normally hidden, because it goes to credibility of testimony.

    She probably gets away with hiding it from the Party, since the conviction happened 6 months before the 2015 election when she had presumably already been selected (but did the referral to police happen before selection?)

    Drip drip drip on this I suspect.

    The BBC report is missing crucial details (which the likes of Sky include) that make it appear worse than the tale she is telling.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited November 28
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Gregg Wallace sounds a right charmer....who the f##k does half this stuff. Footballers / rugby back in the day, but its a slightly different setting and not today.

    What did he do? Rape someone? I LOVE Masterchef and it is literally the last contact I have with the BBC

    That is honestly it, otherwise for me it is a broadcasting network roughly on a par with Dave 2
    He's the least necessary part if it, though.

    Did you do Culinary Culture Wars yet ?
    Tried. In Korea. Didn't do it for me
    First episode was slow, but the rest was better than Masterchef, IMO.
    Then again, I like K culture.
    Genuine question, is it fiction or non fiction? The first episode is not entirely clear!

    Also, Korea is... depressing. I wish that wasn't true but its birth rate is so bad it seems to point to the maudlin future of all of us. And I really like South Korea as a concept (tho you missed the best bit, the DMZ)

    Korea is so childless you actually notice it. The childless towns. All the old people (including me, as an observer). It's grim
    No, absolutely genuine. The silly braggadocio of the first episode is a bit misleading.
    (Good rule of thumb for a lot of Korean series is don't dismiss them on the basis of Ep1.)

    The tofu cook off near the end was just brilliant.

    Ok cool. And thankyou. I shall put it back on my list of To-Watch

    Have you tried Blue Eyed Samurai yet? It is genuinely one of the best things I have seen all year. It is exquisite. It is actually better than the Emmy-award winning Shogun (which is itself excellent)
  • SteveS said:

    I've just made my biggest individual purchase of at least the last two years

    I've spent £285 on a 30 litre mash boiler for beer brewing

    Well, I've just paid that much, but I've spent half of it. I'm going full into home brewing with my best mate

    I live in a tiny townhouse, he lives in a decent size farmhouse (but not a farm), with plenty of space for our new hobby

    Our aim is to replace our beer buying with our brewing, which would save us both quite a bit of cash

    If we can do it well, we've got room to expand

    Get this book.

    https://www.worldofbooks.com/en-gb/products/big-book-of-brewing-book-dave-line-9781854862358?sku=GOR001892620&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAADZzAIA3GKzPsorDVbTDgiz_OSUhH

    You can buy me a bottle of champagne as a thank you later
    My Dad bought me Dave Line's Brewing Beers Like Those You Buy for my birthday, when I'd just started brewing

    He had the same book when he first tried home brewing in the very early eighties, when we lived in Wendover

    He was in the brewhouse (tiny shed), and had his first brew ready for bottling. He'd taken the lid off to get a sample for gravity testing and a tiny taste

    Then in bolted Blanche with the final ingredient; two handfuls of soil

    My Mum thought it best to hide me until my Dad calmed down

    I think that he's forgiven me, but he'll never forget

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Gregg Wallace sounds a right charmer....who the f##k does half this stuff. Footballers / rugby back in the day, but its a slightly different setting and not today.

    What did he do? Rape someone? I LOVE Masterchef and it is literally the last contact I have with the BBC

    That is honestly it, otherwise for me it is a broadcasting network roughly on a par with Dave 2
    He's the least necessary part if it, though.

    Did you do Culinary Culture Wars yet ?
    Tried. In Korea. Didn't do it for me
    First episode was slow, but the rest was better than Masterchef, IMO.
    Then again, I like K culture.
    Genuine question, is it fiction or non fiction? The first episode is not entirely clear!

    Also, Korea is... depressing. I wish that wasn't true but its birth rate is so bad it seems to point to the maudlin future of all of us. And I really like South Korea as a concept (tho you missed the best bit, the DMZ)

    Korea is so childless you actually notice it. The childless towns. All the old people (including me, as an observer). It's grim
    No, absolutely genuine. The silly braggadocio of the first episode is a bit misleading.
    (Good rule of thumb for a lot of Korean series is don't dismiss them on the basis of Ep1.)

    The tofu cook off near the end was just brilliant.

    Ok cool. And thankyou. I shall put it back on my list of To-Watch

    Have you tried Blue Eyed Samurai yet? It is genuinely one of the best things I have seen all year. It is exquisite. It is actually better than the Emmy-award winning Shogun (which is itself excellent)
    Blue eyed Samurai is terrific. Really quite different.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I will be banned if I answer this honestly so it's best we move on
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    eek said:

    Spring spending review pushed back to June

    https://www.ft.com/content/edc2455b-95c0-4994-9a2d-1a41ad41ef80

    "Rachel Reeves has pushed back the timing of the Treasury’s multiyear spending review to June as the government struggles to get to grips with the volume of decisions it needs to make on its funding priorities."

    They didn't do their homework prior to government did they.
    What? We have to make decisions? I thought we could just not be the Tories and all woukd be well!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 28
    If you want an indication of how broke the immigration system is, 600k people still arrived during 2020...during a global pandemic when you couldn't leave your house for more than an hour a day....that is twice what we used to get in 2000.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Spring spending review pushed back to June

    https://www.ft.com/content/edc2455b-95c0-4994-9a2d-1a41ad41ef80

    Did she learn nothing from the budget?
    Apparently not. The uncertainty is almost as bad for business as her ideas.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited November 28
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Gregg Wallace sounds a right charmer....who the f##k does half this stuff. Footballers / rugby back in the day, but its a slightly different setting and not today.

    What did he do? Rape someone? I LOVE Masterchef and it is literally the last contact I have with the BBC

    That is honestly it, otherwise for me it is a broadcasting network roughly on a par with Dave 2
    He's the least necessary part if it, though.

    Did you do Culinary Culture Wars yet ?
    Tried. In Korea. Didn't do it for me
    First episode was slow, but the rest was better than Masterchef, IMO.
    Then again, I like K culture.
    Genuine question, is it fiction or non fiction? The first episode is not entirely clear!

    Also, Korea is... depressing. I wish that wasn't true but its birth rate is so bad it seems to point to the maudlin future of all of us. And I really like South Korea as a concept (tho you missed the best bit, the DMZ)

    Korea is so childless you actually notice it. The childless towns. All the old people (including me, as an observer). It's grim
    No, absolutely genuine. The silly braggadocio of the first episode is a bit misleading.
    (Good rule of thumb for a lot of Korean series is don't dismiss them on the basis of Ep1.)

    The tofu cook off near the end was just brilliant.

    Ok cool. And thankyou. I shall put it back on my list of To-Watch

    Have you tried Blue Eyed Samurai yet? It is genuinely one of the best things I have seen all year. It is exquisite. It is actually better than the Emmy-award winning Shogun (which is itself excellent)
    Blue eyed Samurai is terrific. Really quite different.
    Aha! isn't it beautiful!!?? I've been trying to persuade people but no-one cares, thankyou for agreeing. People say "oh, it's just animation" blah blah. Who cares. It is tremendously skilful, sensitive, beautiful, and diverting. I loved it

    And it even makes Shogun look a bit pallid, and Shogun is really clever and great entertainment

    But Blue Eyed Samurai is on another level
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    The absolute arses who voted both for them and Starmer must be reassessing their ability to extrapolate, don't you think ?
    Quite so

    Personally, I'd exile them to Uruguay. Or even Bulgaria. Or, fuck it, Uzbekistan

    LET THEM BE GONE
    I think he’s referring to you, bro. 😶
    Er, yeah, I know

    whoooooooooooosh

    I made this point clear by referring to places I am personally hoping to visit in 2025. Fucksake
    Doesn’t change the fundamentals, operating without a tribal allegiance, you have properly called your last two GE votes spot on.

    Did you notice you were recommended a book, if you are needing winter reading.
    Magical Britain, Rob Wildwood
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    If you want an indication of how broke the immigration system is, 600k people still arrived during 2020...during a global pandemic when you couldn't leave your house for more than an hour a day....that is twice what we used to get in 2000.

    How many were students arriving for the September start at Uni?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 28
    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    Spring spending review pushed back to June

    https://www.ft.com/content/edc2455b-95c0-4994-9a2d-1a41ad41ef80

    "Rachel Reeves has pushed back the timing of the Treasury’s multiyear spending review to June as the government struggles to get to grips with the volume of decisions it needs to make on its funding priorities."

    They didn't do their homework prior to government did they.
    What? We have to make decisions? I thought we could just not be the Tories and all woukd be well!
    The only initial decisions make quickly was to shit can a load of stuff from new super computers, to building new hospitals, to increasing the level at which you get a visa to bring your family to the UK.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 28

    If you want an indication of how broke the immigration system is, 600k people still arrived during 2020...during a global pandemic when you couldn't leave your house for more than an hour a day....that is twice what we used to get in 2000.

    How many were students arriving for the September start at Uni?
    Wasn't 2020 when pretty much all unis did remote teaching? The likes of the Chinese weren't allowed to leave.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    If any PB-er is still wavering about Blue Eye Samurai, check the Rotten Tomatoes ratings, here

    97% from critics, 94% from viewers. It is a work of art, but also a massively entertaining work of art

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/blue_eye_samurai/s01

    You won't regret a second
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    Spring spending review pushed back to June

    https://www.ft.com/content/edc2455b-95c0-4994-9a2d-1a41ad41ef80

    "Rachel Reeves has pushed back the timing of the Treasury’s multiyear spending review to June as the government struggles to get to grips with the volume of decisions it needs to make on its funding priorities."

    They didn't do their homework prior to government did they.
    What? We have to make decisions? I thought we could just not be the Tories and all woukd be well!
    The only initial decisions make quickly was to shit can a load of stuff from new super computers, to building new hospitals, to increasing the level at which you get a visa to bring your family to the UK.
    I'm not being snarky at all, but I genuinely thought they would be better prepared and hit the ground running. It's not like an election was sprung upon them, there was going to be one this year no matter what.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    If you want an indication of how broke the immigration system is, 600k people still arrived during 2020...during a global pandemic when you couldn't leave your house for more than an hour a day....that is twice what we used to get in 2000.

    How many were students arriving for the September start at Uni?
    Wasn't 2020 when pretty much all unis did remote teaching? The likes of the Chinese weren't allowed to leave.
    Not quite. Our first years were allowed onto campus but expected to log on from there.
  • If you want an indication of how broke the immigration system is, 600k people still arrived during 2020...during a global pandemic when you couldn't leave your house for more than an hour a day....that is twice what we used to get in 2000.

    How many were students arriving for the September start at Uni?
    How many had left in June ?
  • I'm sure that my new Czech chief will be tremendous, but I'd still prefer Royal Mail to be owned by the King

    New Czech boss has committed to no compulsory redundancies until 2025, so enjoy Christmas!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,857
    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    Spring spending review pushed back to June

    https://www.ft.com/content/edc2455b-95c0-4994-9a2d-1a41ad41ef80

    "Rachel Reeves has pushed back the timing of the Treasury’s multiyear spending review to June as the government struggles to get to grips with the volume of decisions it needs to make on its funding priorities."

    They didn't do their homework prior to government did they.
    What? We have to make decisions? I thought we could just not be the Tories and all woukd be well!
    Yes. I think the expectations of their more grown up supporters were not that everything would be magically sorted overnight. But I think it was essential to have three things: Top quality information and presentation as if they were a proper and truthful government; clarity about the most important destinations; and clarity about how we were going to get there.

    Social care? Dentistry? Two items out of hundreds where I have no idea and can't find out the basics of their intentions.

    And no unforced errors would be nice too.
  • glw said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    Spring spending review pushed back to June

    https://www.ft.com/content/edc2455b-95c0-4994-9a2d-1a41ad41ef80

    "Rachel Reeves has pushed back the timing of the Treasury’s multiyear spending review to June as the government struggles to get to grips with the volume of decisions it needs to make on its funding priorities."

    They didn't do their homework prior to government did they.
    What? We have to make decisions? I thought we could just not be the Tories and all woukd be well!
    The only initial decisions make quickly was to shit can a load of stuff from new super computers, to building new hospitals, to increasing the level at which you get a visa to bring your family to the UK.
    I'm not being snarky at all, but I genuinely thought they would be better prepared and hit the ground running. It's not like an election was sprung upon them, there was going to be one this year no matter what.
    And they were going to win.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835
    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    Spring spending review pushed back to June

    https://www.ft.com/content/edc2455b-95c0-4994-9a2d-1a41ad41ef80

    "Rachel Reeves has pushed back the timing of the Treasury’s multiyear spending review to June as the government struggles to get to grips with the volume of decisions it needs to make on its funding priorities."

    They didn't do their homework prior to government did they.
    What? We have to make decisions? I thought we could just not be the Tories and all woukd be well!
    Yes. I think the expectations of their more grown up supporters were not that everything would be magically sorted overnight. But I think it was essential to have three things: Top quality information and presentation as if they were a proper and truthful government; clarity about the most important destinations; and clarity about how we were going to get there.

    Social care? Dentistry? Two items out of hundreds where I have no idea and can't find out the basics of their intentions.

    And no unforced errors would be nice too.
    Dentistry's an odd one because, whilst I'm sure it needs reform, simply whacking twenty percent on the payments dentists get for NHS patients would slow or stop the stampede to private.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,857

    If you want an indication of how broke the immigration system is, 600k people still arrived during 2020...during a global pandemic when you couldn't leave your house for more than an hour a day....that is twice what we used to get in 2000.

    How many were students arriving for the September start at Uni?
    For net migration numbers students who leave will be balancing students who arrive, so, leaving aside the permanent stayers, their number won't be relevant.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    edited November 28

    I'm sure that my new Czech chief will be tremendous, but I'd still prefer Royal Mail to be owned by the King

    New Czech boss has committed to no compulsory redundancies until 2025, so enjoy Christmas!
    Literally unbelievable that we are selling off a 800 year old or whatever institution that is the bedrock of uk society to foreign owners.

    It is a pinnacle of the neo-globalisation just as that tide definitely goes out.

    We will, as a country, bitterly regret this in years to come. :rage:

    I own a few shares from the initial sell off and I will vote against if anyone gives me a chance.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161

    If you want an indication of how broke the immigration system is, 600k people still arrived during 2020...during a global pandemic when you couldn't leave your house for more than an hour a day....that is twice what we used to get in 2000.

    How many were students arriving for the September start at Uni?
    How many had left in June ?
    You think that they leave at the end of the course? What would be the point of coming if you had to do that?
  • Evening all

    One of things that Lab should do, but they may not be brave enough is to do a more general boundary review, particularly of the boundaries of the metropolitan areas, which haven't been reviewed for at least half a century. For example, the Greater London boundary makes no sense in a lot of places e;g. Worcester Park split between London and Surrey, places like Esher (which blends seamlessly into Surbiton) not in London, but North Ockendon, which is outside the M25 is in London. You could argue for adding new London Boroughs like Watford and Dartford.

    A related problem is underbounding of urban areas. A classic example is Nottingham, where most of Broxtowe and Gedling boroughs really ought to be in with the city along with West Bridgford. Other examples that spring to mind are Bristol, Norwich and Reading. Conversely, Leeds is way too big and should lose Wetherby and outlying towns, while Birmingham is unwieldy and should be split into 2-3 councils

    The third thing they should do is re-review the 90s unitaries as some of them were quite small. For example, in Berkshire they abolished the county and so we have 6 unitaries for 950k people when 2 would probably be enough.

    Of course, the reason why Labour probably won't do this is it is likely to upset a lot of people, particularly if you start telling people in nice houses in places like Gedling that they have to go in with Nottingham
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,857
    glw said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    Spring spending review pushed back to June

    https://www.ft.com/content/edc2455b-95c0-4994-9a2d-1a41ad41ef80

    "Rachel Reeves has pushed back the timing of the Treasury’s multiyear spending review to June as the government struggles to get to grips with the volume of decisions it needs to make on its funding priorities."

    They didn't do their homework prior to government did they.
    What? We have to make decisions? I thought we could just not be the Tories and all woukd be well!
    The only initial decisions make quickly was to shit can a load of stuff from new super computers, to building new hospitals, to increasing the level at which you get a visa to bring your family to the UK.
    I'm not being snarky at all, but I genuinely thought they would be better prepared and hit the ground running. It's not like an election was sprung upon them, there was going to be one this year no matter what.
    Agree. Many people were all set for the ghastly awfulness of the truth of where we were positioned, balanced by the excellence of the planning for dealing with it over a lengthy period, carefully explained and well communicated. We didn't expect it during the election because it would cost money and there was an election to win, but we did expect it well before now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    edited November 28
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Gregg Wallace sounds a right charmer....who the f##k does half this stuff. Footballers / rugby back in the day, but its a slightly different setting and not today.

    What did he do? Rape someone? I LOVE Masterchef and it is literally the last contact I have with the BBC

    That is honestly it, otherwise for me it is a broadcasting network roughly on a par with Dave 2
    He's the least necessary part if it, though.

    Did you do Culinary Culture Wars yet ?
    Tried. In Korea. Didn't do it for me
    First episode was slow, but the rest was better than Masterchef, IMO.
    Then again, I like K culture.
    Genuine question, is it fiction or non fiction? The first episode is not entirely clear!

    Also, Korea is... depressing. I wish that wasn't true but its birth rate is so bad it seems to point to the maudlin future of all of us. And I really like South Korea as a concept (tho you missed the best bit, the DMZ)

    Korea is so childless you actually notice it. The childless towns. All the old people (including me, as an observer). It's grim
    No, absolutely genuine. The silly braggadocio of the first episode is a bit misleading.
    (Good rule of thumb for a lot of Korean series is don't dismiss them on the basis of Ep1.)

    The tofu cook off near the end was just brilliant.

    Ok cool. And thankyou. I shall put it back on my list of To-Watch

    Have you tried Blue Eyed Samurai yet? It is genuinely one of the best things I have seen all year. It is exquisite. It is actually better than the Emmy-award winning Shogun (which is itself excellent)
    Yes, just watched it.
    It is excellent - and the improbable which bothers you in live action just works in manga.
    One of the best animations I've seen since Spirited Away.

    (Btw, they dispense with the can't cook wannabes pretty quickly in CCW.
    But some of those that survive will surprise you.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    I'm sure that my new Czech chief will be tremendous, but I'd still prefer Royal Mail to be owned by the King

    New Czech boss has committed to no compulsory redundancies until 2025, so enjoy Christmas!
    Literally unbelievable that we are selling off a 800 year old or whatever institution that is the bedrock of uk society to foreign owners.

    It is a pinnacle of the neo-globalisation just as that tide definitely goes out.

    We will, as a country, bitterly regret this in years to come. :rage:

    I own a few shares from the initial sell off and I will vote against if anyone gives me a chance.
    It's the last four decades in microcosm.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,857

    Evening all

    One of things that Lab should do, but they may not be brave enough is to do a more general boundary review, particularly of the boundaries of the metropolitan areas, which haven't been reviewed for at least half a century. For example, the Greater London boundary makes no sense in a lot of places e;g. Worcester Park split between London and Surrey, places like Esher (which blends seamlessly into Surbiton) not in London, but North Ockendon, which is outside the M25 is in London. You could argue for adding new London Boroughs like Watford and Dartford.

    A related problem is underbounding of urban areas. A classic example is Nottingham, where most of Broxtowe and Gedling boroughs really ought to be in with the city along with West Bridgford. Other examples that spring to mind are Bristol, Norwich and Reading. Conversely, Leeds is way too big and should lose Wetherby and outlying towns, while Birmingham is unwieldy and should be split into 2-3 councils

    The third thing they should do is re-review the 90s unitaries as some of them were quite small. For example, in Berkshire they abolished the county and so we have 6 unitaries for 950k people when 2 would probably be enough.

    Of course, the reason why Labour probably won't do this is it is likely to upset a lot of people, particularly if you start telling people in nice houses in places like Gedling that they have to go in with Nottingham

    It may well be that a boundary review is needed, but if it is, it comes about 4 millionth in the list of things the public want brilliantly explained WRT where the government is going and how it wants to get there. The link between who you pay your council tax to and, say, your hip operation/school roof falling in/no NHS dentist seems tenuous, and most people don't want to guess the answer.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114
    edited November 28

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





  • Shecorns88Shecorns88 Posts: 279
    carnforth said:

    Lots of interest in the BBC's article:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l95750v08o

    Including: "Louise Haigh is a former Special Constable, a volunteer police officer with full powers of arrest who served with the Metropolitan Police until 2011."

    Two problems I think. One, what if she's lying now in her comments to the BBC and is disproven. Two, she says she disclosed to Starmer in 2020 before being appointed minister. What was he doing overlooking a conviction involving dishonesty, no matter how slight the punishment? Convictions involving dishonesty are special - courts will routinely tell juries about them, even when previous convictions are normally hidden, because it goes to credibility of testimony.

    She probably gets away with hiding it from the Party, since the conviction happened 6 months before the 2015 election when she had presumably already been selected (but did the referral to police happen before selection?)

    Drip drip drip on this I suspect.

    The fuller Sky exclusive partially makes this look more of a genuine mistake.

    No doubt some will seek to make a mountain out of a molehill.

    It begs the question how long have Sky sat on this any why release it now.

    On what has been a dire day for the Tories, new and old and ahead of a key debate tomorrow seems a strange time.

    It's certainly not a Huhne or Pincher moment.

    She would have been thoroughly vetted before going in to Full Cabinet and Sky suggest before going in to Shadow Cabinet too

    It's been on public record and not hidden which is also in her favour.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,985
    This week's offering from Techne:

    LAB: 28% (-1)
    CON: 27% (=)
    RFM: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Changes from last week (such as they are).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    Labour should start by reinstating the pre-1974 boundaries of Yorkshire and County Durham.
  • carnforth said:

    Lots of interest in the BBC's article:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l95750v08o

    Including: "Louise Haigh is a former Special Constable, a volunteer police officer with full powers of arrest who served with the Metropolitan Police until 2011."

    Two problems I think. One, what if she's lying now in her comments to the BBC and is disproven. Two, she says she disclosed to Starmer in 2020 before being appointed minister. What was he doing overlooking a conviction involving dishonesty, no matter how slight the punishment? Convictions involving dishonesty are special - courts will routinely tell juries about them, even when previous convictions are normally hidden, because it goes to credibility of testimony.

    She probably gets away with hiding it from the Party, since the conviction happened 6 months before the 2015 election when she had presumably already been selected (but did the referral to police happen before selection?)

    Drip drip drip on this I suspect.

    The fuller Sky exclusive partially makes this look more of a genuine mistake.

    No doubt some will seek to make a mountain out of a molehill.

    It begs the question how long have Sky sat on this any why release it now.

    On what has been a dire day for the Tories, new and old and ahead of a key debate tomorrow seems a strange time.

    It's certainly not a Huhne or Pincher moment.

    She would have been thoroughly vetted before going in to Full Cabinet and Sky suggest before going in to Shadow Cabinet too

    It's been on public record and not hidden which is also in her favour.

    She's no Gregg Wallace.

    He does face losing his career over allegations, also from years ago, that do not involve lying to the police, whether or not Haigh was also committing petty fraud to the tune of one new mobile phone.

    The timing is an unfortunate coincidence and the one situation might influence the other, not necessarily to Haigh's advantage.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114

    If you want an indication of how broke the immigration system is, 600k people still arrived during 2020...during a global pandemic when you couldn't leave your house for more than an hour a day....that is twice what we used to get in 2000.

    How many were students arriving for the September start at Uni?
    Wasn't 2020 when pretty much all unis did remote teaching? The likes of the Chinese weren't allowed to leave.
    We had left Lockdown by summer of 2020 (Remember Eat out to Help Out?). It only restartedlate autumn, so students could and did arrive for the autumn term in 2020, albeit needing a negative covid test to arrive.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942

    eek said:

    Every pensioner household in Scotland will receive a winter fuel payment next year, the Scottish government has announced.

    Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said those in receipt of qualifying benefits like Pension Credit would get £200 or £300 depending on their age, while all others would get £100.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6kl7ywe07o

    Got to ask how they will work out who gets what - because that isn't going to be cheap and I doubt they have the datasets...
    "will be paid through a new Scottish Parliament benefit, which will not be ready until late 2025." - That sounds like a new computer system, and as we know, governments and technology, it always works out great.
    Scotland already had a social security agency for much more complex benefits like Scottish Child Payment, and WFP (or PAWHP) was being devolved anyway, so I doubt it will too much of an issue.
  • I'm sure that my new Czech chief will be tremendous, but I'd still prefer Royal Mail to be owned by the King

    New Czech boss has committed to no compulsory redundancies until 2025, so enjoy Christmas!
    Literally unbelievable that we are selling off a 800 year old or whatever institution that is the bedrock of uk society to foreign owners.

    It is a pinnacle of the neo-globalisation just as that tide definitely goes out.

    We will, as a country, bitterly regret this in years to come. :rage:

    I own a few shares from the initial sell off and I will vote against if anyone gives me a chance.
    No it is very believable.

    People spend their money on what they want.

    And they prefer having foreign holidays to owning the Royal Mail.
  • Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Definitely some big shifts in the Syrian fighting.
    You don't capture self propelled artillery intact, unless you've overwhelmed the opposition pretty rapidly.

    Syrian rebels captured two 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers and several artillery in the Kahraba villages in western Aleppo.
    https://x.com/mintelworld/status/1862147830128759164
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 92

    I'm sure that my new Czech chief will be tremendous, but I'd still prefer Royal Mail to be owned by the King

    New Czech boss has committed to no compulsory redundancies until 2025, so enjoy Christmas!
    Literally unbelievable that we are selling off a 800 year old or whatever institution that is the bedrock of uk society to foreign owners.

    It is a pinnacle of the neo-globalisation just as that tide definitely goes out.

    We will, as a country, bitterly regret this in years to come. :rage:

    I own a few shares from the initial sell off and I will vote against if anyone gives me a chance.
    The pass was sold 12 years ago. Why do you think the original PO cover up happened from 2012/2013 onwards? The Royal Mail sell off happened then. They wouldn't have been able to give the shares away if they'd had to reveal that for the previous 10 years or more they'd been fraudulently prosecuting innocent people.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
  • Foxy said:

    If you want an indication of how broke the immigration system is, 600k people still arrived during 2020...during a global pandemic when you couldn't leave your house for more than an hour a day....that is twice what we used to get in 2000.

    How many were students arriving for the September start at Uni?
    Wasn't 2020 when pretty much all unis did remote teaching? The likes of the Chinese weren't allowed to leave.
    We had left Lockdown by summer of 2020 (Remember Eat out to Help Out?). It only restartedlate autumn, so students could and did arrive for the autumn term in 2020, albeit needing a negative covid test to arrive.
    Not at Nottingham. They maintained remote learning right through to the Summer of 2021.
  • I'm sure that my new Czech chief will be tremendous, but I'd still prefer Royal Mail to be owned by the King

    New Czech boss has committed to no compulsory redundancies until 2025, so enjoy Christmas!
    Literally unbelievable that we are selling off a 800 year old or whatever institution that is the bedrock of uk society to foreign owners.

    It is a pinnacle of the neo-globalisation just as that tide definitely goes out.

    We will, as a country, bitterly regret this in years to come. :rage:

    I own a few shares from the initial sell off and I will vote against if anyone gives me a chance.
    No it is very believable.

    People spend their money on what they want.

    And they prefer having foreign holidays to owning the Royal Mail.
    As they should.

    So damn what who owns one amongst many private firms that distribute letters and parcels?

    We get far more deliveries from Amazon than from the Royal Mail anyway. Mainly due to Mrs Roberts.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    So start including them in the numbers when they transfer. Bear in mind they weren't included at all until 2016
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,895

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    You could rewrite this post for most areas of government policy.

    There's no long-term strategy, or attempt to shape public opinion.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114

    Foxy said:

    If you want an indication of how broke the immigration system is, 600k people still arrived during 2020...during a global pandemic when you couldn't leave your house for more than an hour a day....that is twice what we used to get in 2000.

    How many were students arriving for the September start at Uni?
    Wasn't 2020 when pretty much all unis did remote teaching? The likes of the Chinese weren't allowed to leave.
    We had left Lockdown by summer of 2020 (Remember Eat out to Help Out?). It only restartedlate autumn, so students could and did arrive for the autumn term in 2020, albeit needing a negative covid test to arrive.
    Not at Nottingham. They maintained remote learning right through to the Summer of 2021.
    yes, but the students were in halls etc, hence some significant spreading events.
  • A recount of the votes cast in Sunday's first round of presidential elections in Romania has been ordered by the country's top court following allegations that social media platform TikTok gave "preferential treatment" to the surprise winner, Calin Georgescu.

    The Constitutional Court also rejected claims filed by two of the losing candidates who accused Georgescu of illegal campaign financing.

    Georgescu, a radical with no party of his own, campaigned mainly on TikTok.

    The platform has categorically denied it favoured the far-right, pro-Russia candidate.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2n83vgxxjo
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    I sent my MP an email about end of life bill a week ago.

    Still no answer.

    Less than impressed.

    I would at least expect a holding email in this very important debate.

    Pretty f*cked off to be honest.
  • England finally got NZ out, they put on 100 for the last 3 wickets.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114
    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
    I don't know.

    I think the ONS figures are based on travel surveys at ports/airports not numbers and types of visas issued, so they probably don't know either.

    We don't do exit immigration checks, so the numbers leaving may be way out. We dont know in which direction.

    It seems obvious to me that we should stamp people out. How else can we know who has overstayed?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835
    edited November 28
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
    I don't know.

    I think the ONS figures are based on travel surveys at ports/airports not numbers and types of visas issued, so they probably don't know either.

    We don't do exit immigration checks, so the numbers leaving may be way out. We dont know in which direction.

    It seems obvious to me that we should stamp people out. How else can we know who has overstayed?
    Ended in the 80s, IIRC. Though by the nineties we had put exit controls at Eurostar when it opened - there's nothing about juxtaposed controls with France which requires us to run exit controls as far as I can see.

    I suspect airlines report passport numbers back to the government though. There was some noise a few years ago about reintroducing exit controls ready for when we go all-electronic on entry controls.
  • algarkirk said:

    Evening all

    One of things that Lab should do, but they may not be brave enough is to do a more general boundary review, particularly of the boundaries of the metropolitan areas, which haven't been reviewed for at least half a century. For example, the Greater London boundary makes no sense in a lot of places e;g. Worcester Park split between London and Surrey, places like Esher (which blends seamlessly into Surbiton) not in London, but North Ockendon, which is outside the M25 is in London. You could argue for adding new London Boroughs like Watford and Dartford.

    A related problem is underbounding of urban areas. A classic example is Nottingham, where most of Broxtowe and Gedling boroughs really ought to be in with the city along with West Bridgford. Other examples that spring to mind are Bristol, Norwich and Reading. Conversely, Leeds is way too big and should lose Wetherby and outlying towns, while Birmingham is unwieldy and should be split into 2-3 councils

    The third thing they should do is re-review the 90s unitaries as some of them were quite small. For example, in Berkshire they abolished the county and so we have 6 unitaries for 950k people when 2 would probably be enough.

    Of course, the reason why Labour probably won't do this is it is likely to upset a lot of people, particularly if you start telling people in nice houses in places like Gedling that they have to go in with Nottingham

    It may well be that a boundary review is needed, but if it is, it comes about 4 millionth in the list of things the public want brilliantly explained WRT where the government is going and how it wants to get there. The link between who you pay your council tax to and, say, your hip operation/school roof falling in/no NHS dentist seems tenuous, and most people don't want to guess the answer.
    Sure it isn't priority number 1, but if Lab are going to do something they might as well do it properly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 28
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
    I don't know.

    I think the ONS figures are based on travel surveys at ports/airports not numbers and types of visas issued, so they probably don't know either.

    We don't do exit immigration checks, so the numbers leaving may be way out. We dont know in which direction.

    It seems obvious to me that we should stamp people out. How else can we know who has overstayed?
    They reintroduced collecting of exit checks stats in 2015,
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/exit-checks-on-passengers-leaving-the-uk/exit-checks-fact-sheet

    Reports on statistics relating to exit checks
    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/reports-on-statistics-relating-to-exit-checks

    Edit - Looks like it is still in the "future works" to do full system....too busy with stuff like bat tunnels....
  • Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
    I don't know.

    I think the ONS figures are based on travel surveys at ports/airports not numbers and types of visas issued, so they probably don't know either.

    We don't do exit immigration checks, so the numbers leaving may be way out. We dont know in which direction.

    It seems obvious to me that we should stamp people out. How else can we know who has overstayed?
    Again we did until Labour got rid of exit checks in 1998. The Coalition were going to reintroduce them in 2015 but I don"t think it ever happened.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    The absolute arses who voted both for them and Starmer must be reassessing their ability to extrapolate, don't you think ?
    Quite so

    Personally, I'd exile them to Uruguay. Or even Bulgaria. Or, fuck it, Uzbekistan

    LET THEM BE GONE
    I think he’s referring to you, bro. 😶
    Er, yeah, I know

    whoooooooooooosh

    I made this point clear by referring to places I am personally hoping to visit in 2025. Fucksake
    I get the satire now, but how are we supposed to get such subtle self deprecating humour the first time, without stalking you, followed by comprehensive note taking, notating every country name highlighted in a colour relatable to each of the continents, and later indexing everything to memory using a proprietary classification system that would make both Melvil Dui and the Viscount St Alban purr in their graves, and Giordano Bruno himself awarding us Memory Bee of The Year.

    Fucksake.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
    I don't know.

    I think the ONS figures are based on travel surveys at ports/airports not numbers and types of visas issued, so they probably don't know either.

    We don't do exit immigration checks, so the numbers leaving may be way out. We dont know in which direction.

    It seems obvious to me that we should stamp people out. How else can we know who has overstayed?
    Again we did until Labour got rid of exit checks in 1998. The Coalition were going to reintroduce them in 2015 but I don"t think it ever happened.
    Do you happen to know why we kept them on the Eurostar?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
    I don't know.

    I think the ONS figures are based on travel surveys at ports/airports not numbers and types of visas issued, so they probably don't know either.

    We don't do exit immigration checks, so the numbers leaving may be way out. We dont know in which direction.

    It seems obvious to me that we should stamp people out. How else can we know who has overstayed?
    They reintroduced collecting of exit checks stats in 2015,
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/exit-checks-on-passengers-leaving-the-uk/exit-checks-fact-sheet

    Reports on statistics relating to exit checks
    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/reports-on-statistics-relating-to-exit-checks

    Edit - Looks like it is still in the "future works" to do full system....too busy with stuff like bat tunnels....
    Yes, and the data is significantly poor. 1.9 million counted in and only 1.8 million matched when leaving in this sample:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/fifth-report-on-statistics-relating-to-exit-checks/fifth-report-on-statistics-relating-to-exit-checks-2019-to-2020
  • carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
    I don't know.

    I think the ONS figures are based on travel surveys at ports/airports not numbers and types of visas issued, so they probably don't know either.

    We don't do exit immigration checks, so the numbers leaving may be way out. We dont know in which direction.

    It seems obvious to me that we should stamp people out. How else can we know who has overstayed?
    Again we did until Labour got rid of exit checks in 1998. The Coalition were going to reintroduce them in 2015 but I don"t think it ever happened.
    Do you happen to know why we kept them on the Eurostar?
    Apologies no. I was aware of them getting rid of them at airports because that is how I travel all the time. And in spite of what others have said, there has not been any reintroduction of formal checks that I have seen. I asume they are just using passenger lists ot collect the data.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,987

    I sent my MP an email about end of life bill a week ago.

    Still no answer.

    Less than impressed.

    I would at least expect a holding email in this very important debate.

    Pretty f*cked off to be honest.

    I sent my local councillor an email about three years ago regarding very dodgy landlords and overcrowding flats - still no reply. Though they do seem to have treated it as a "yes, I agree to join your mailing list" trigger. So now I get to know the worthy things they're doing on Gaza, climate change, etc.

    (All of which are worth doing - but also, could you look into the Dickensian slum landlords?)
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 620

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
    I don't know.

    I think the ONS figures are based on travel surveys at ports/airports not numbers and types of visas issued, so they probably don't know either.

    We don't do exit immigration checks, so the numbers leaving may be way out. We dont know in which direction.

    It seems obvious to me that we should stamp people out. How else can we know who has overstayed?
    Again we did until Labour got rid of exit checks in 1998. The Coalition were going to reintroduce them in 2015 but I don"t think it ever happened.
    So there is one very strong conclusion from that, at ~4% of the total migration numbers, small boat arrivals are close to irrelevant.
    The main culprit for the large number of immigrants into the UK are the businesses importing vast numbers of skilled workers on sponsored visas, short term work visas and business trip visas (e.g. Dyson wanting to employ engineers in Malaysia and fly them in to work in the UK office on rotation) so they can pay below the UK market rate.
    This has been the case for years, one place I contracted at 15 years ago, the Engineering Director actually held a department lunch meeting where he told us that his plan for the future was to employ professionals in Malaysia and fly them in on temporary business trip visas to work on projects because Clients would no longer accept their projects being f***ed up in "high value engineering centres" and wanted the work done in Europe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    How many heard about this program ?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pye_Wacket

    It's vaguely possible it might account for some of the flying saucer nonsense, as it was almost literally one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    @GavinBarwell

    @BorisJohnson won the Brexit referendum by promising control of our borders. And then he did this


  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,198
    I have said it before and will say it again. Abolish all local Gvt. Everyone gets the same, run from Whitehall. Much more efficient.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    edited November 28

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    I think our politicians are guilty of treating us like children sometimes, and we respond by acting like them. I was quite impressed by a local councillor who challenged a person making a deputation recently, pointing out that he'd come to council with plenty of complaints while offering no alternatives. All the other councillors were just coddling this guy.

    Perhaps it stems from arrogance - I'm an MP, so I must 10x smarter than the average voter. It's probably about 1.05x smarter in reality, intelligence distributions aren't that wide.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,198
    Scott_xP said:

    @GavinBarwell

    @BorisJohnson won the Brexit referendum by promising control of our borders. And then he did this


    What? That is control.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    kjh said:

    Damn it yet again I post an hour after a thread has finished on the old thread. @Selebian a reply to you re WFP and Farming IHT re LDs.

    My only excuse is I am having my first break from a day of medlaring. I thought I had missed my opportunity this year, but I got a call from a local stately home to let me enter their private gardens and pick the last remaining medlars. They also let me take some cuttings to try and grow my own tree on the condition that if I am successful I give them a successful cutting if I get more than one to take.

    Will be bottling the medlar jelly in the next hour or so. Pictures may follow.

    Thanks, I've had a look. In relation to LD position on WFP and farming IHT, I was looking for a bit of nuance or at least justifiction. I checked the website for positions and the one on IHT in particular had a list of reasons why farmers need help, without addressing the core issue. If farmers need help, then it would be better to actually help them - passing on the farm tax free is not all that useful if you're a stuggling farmer in your 30s! It also failed to acknowledge that there might be reasons to look at the IHT anomaly or set out any alternative, just opposition to change.

    Having said that, I could also be persuaded to oppose both. I've not scrutinised either proposal all that closely. The famers' IHT changes I've learned about mostly on here; while the WFP will hit my parents they have no need of it. It ay well hit some who need it, but then I'd expect an alternative proposal on how better to allocate it.
  • Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
    I don't know.

    I think the ONS figures are based on travel surveys at ports/airports not numbers and types of visas issued, so they probably don't know either.

    We don't do exit immigration checks, so the numbers leaving may be way out. We dont know in which direction.

    It seems obvious to me that we should stamp people out. How else can we know who has overstayed?
    Again we did until Labour got rid of exit checks in 1998. The Coalition were going to reintroduce them in 2015 but I don"t think it ever happened.
    So there is one very strong conclusion from that, at ~4% of the total migration numbers, small boat arrivals are close to irrelevant.
    The main culprit for the large number of immigrants into the UK are the businesses importing vast numbers of skilled workers on sponsored visas, short term work visas and business trip visas (e.g. Dyson wanting to employ engineers in Malaysia and fly them in to work in the UK office on rotation) so they can pay below the UK market rate.
    This has been the case for years, one place I contracted at 15 years ago, the Engineering Director actually held a department lunch meeting where he told us that his plan for the future was to employ professionals in Malaysia and fly them in on temporary business trip visas to work on projects because Clients would no longer accept their projects being f***ed up in "high value engineering centres" and wanted the work done in Europe.
    Yep. Small boats are a complete irrelevance and the only reason we should be concerned about them is the number of people dying trying to get across.

    We have chosen to import workers and successive Government's have then rung their hands over something that, since Brexit, has been entirely a matter of choice by the politicians.

    I had hoped Starmer would have the foresight and the balls to make this explicit but he seems to be following he playbook of all previous PMs and wringing his hands over how terrible it all is and how he will be the one to stop it.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,345
    Nigelb said:

    Definitely some big shifts in the Syrian fighting.
    You don't capture self propelled artillery intact, unless you've overwhelmed the opposition pretty rapidly.

    Syrian rebels captured two 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers and several artillery in the Kahraba villages in western Aleppo.
    https://x.com/mintelworld/status/1862147830128759164

    Wouldn't read too much into that quite yet. Its been a lightning offensive partially due to the reduced capability of Hezbollah & the IGRC (blame the Israelis) who really have been the most effective pro-Assad forces and the fact the Russian presence in Syria has suffered due to demands in Ukraine. How much more the insurgents can progress in terms of territory taken and also hold it is an open question.

    There are two interesting and perhaps more significant things though. 1. the report that Turkish backed groups are getting involved and 2. that Assad flew to Moscow for consultations really quickly. Did it need that? He must think so.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,125
    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
    I don't know.

    I think the ONS figures are based on travel surveys at ports/airports not numbers and types of visas issued, so they probably don't know either.

    We don't do exit immigration checks, so the numbers leaving may be way out. We dont know in which direction.

    It seems obvious to me that we should stamp people out. How else can we know who has overstayed?
    Again we did until Labour got rid of exit checks in 1998. The Coalition were going to reintroduce them in 2015 but I don"t think it ever happened.
    Do you happen to know why we kept them on the Eurostar?
    Obviously because you can trust the Nigerians, Indians, Brazilians etc. but would you trust the FRENCH?!?!?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    A recount of the votes cast in Sunday's first round of presidential elections in Romania has been ordered by the country's top court following allegations that social media platform TikTok gave "preferential treatment" to the surprise winner, Calin Georgescu.

    The Constitutional Court also rejected claims filed by two of the losing candidates who accused Georgescu of illegal campaign financing.

    Georgescu, a radical with no party of his own, campaigned mainly on TikTok.

    The platform has categorically denied it favoured the far-right, pro-Russia candidate.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2n83vgxxjo

    I still find it hard to believe he could win the run off but if the establishment are seen to be engaging in a stitch up.....

    Romania seriously matters. Large border with Ukraine, Moldova sandwiched between the two and the Black Sea coast.

    Anyway in Syria it seems as though Assad is having trouble in Aleppo. Presumably support from Iran and Russia is waning.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    Around a quarter of students transfer to other visas historically, so I think they should be in the figures. It varies by origin, with Chinese students having a very high return rate, some of the other originating countries much less so.

    If they did all leave then the net would be quite low, but it isn't.
    Does "transfer to other visas" include the two years post-degree when they can work by right, or only if they exceed that two years and need an employer to sponsor them?
    I don't know.

    I think the ONS figures are based on travel surveys at ports/airports not numbers and types of visas issued, so they probably don't know either.

    We don't do exit immigration checks, so the numbers leaving may be way out. We dont know in which direction.

    It seems obvious to me that we should stamp people out. How else can we know who has overstayed?
    Again we did until Labour got rid of exit checks in 1998. The Coalition were going to reintroduce them in 2015 but I don"t think it ever happened.
    So there is one very strong conclusion from that, at ~4% of the total migration numbers, small boat arrivals are close to irrelevant.
    The main culprit for the large number of immigrants into the UK are the businesses importing vast numbers of skilled workers on sponsored visas, short term work visas and business trip visas (e.g. Dyson wanting to employ engineers in Malaysia and fly them in to work in the UK office on rotation) so they can pay below the UK market rate.
    This has been the case for years, one place I contracted at 15 years ago, the Engineering Director actually held a department lunch meeting where he told us that his plan for the future was to employ professionals in Malaysia and fly them in on temporary business trip visas to work on projects because Clients would no longer accept their projects being f***ed up in "high value engineering centres" and wanted the work done in Europe.
    Yep. Small boats are a complete irrelevance and the only reason we should be concerned about them is the number of people dying trying to get across.

    We have chosen to import workers and successive Government's have then rung their hands over something that, since Brexit, has been entirely a matter of choice by the politicians.

    I had hoped Starmer would have the foresight and the balls to make this explicit but he seems to be following he playbook of all previous PMs and wringing his hands over how terrible it all is and how he will be the one to stop it.
    It may only be 4% of immigrants, but it's surely a rather higher percentage of immigrants that we don't want to have. Are we that bothered about high skilled immigration?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    Historians will write books about it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114
    Scott_xP said:

    @GavinBarwell

    @BorisJohnson won the Brexit referendum by promising control of our borders. And then he did this


    Yes, but this graph goes up to 11...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268

    Foxy said:

    >

    Leon said:

    Can we just note that the Tories allowed one MILLION migrants, net, in one year

    For that alone they deserve to be sent to Hell, for eternal perdition, and Boris fucking "the FT will be my friend" Johnson should go to the 10th circle of Torment

    That was the year which included Hong Kong passport holders fleeing the Chinese crack down on democracy and the Ukrainian women and children fleeing the a Russian invasion.

    Which would you prefer to have sacrificed?
    I don"t think that correct.

    From the ONS release today:

    "considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    Indian (240,000)

    Nigerian (120,000)

    Pakistani (101,000)

    Chinese (78,000) *most of these were on Study visas so unlikely to be HK

    Zimbabwean (36,000)"

    "In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

    Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

    asylum (84,000 people)

    family reasons (76,000 people)

    humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)"

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024

    So of the 1.2 million immigrants, asylum and humanitarian (which presumably includes the Ukranians and HK Chinese) were 150 000, including 30 000 small boat arrivals. there were 58 000 Brits immigrating too, which may include some of the HK people.

    800 000 were either for work or study, the vast bulk of the non EU immigration.

    116 000 EU immigrants came, 211 000 emigrated, so net emigration of 95 000 EU citizens

    58 000 British passport holders immigrated, and 79 000 left, so net emigration of 21 000 Britons.

    Around 100 000 students left, with 375 000 arriving, so around a quarter of the net immigration, around half of net immigration was on work visas.





    Cameron was stupid making promises to reduce net migration to the 10s of thousands

    May was stupid adding students to the numbers

    Johnson, Truss and Sunak were stupid for maintaining the fiction of trying to reduce migration and blaming it all on boats in the Channel whilst rightly actively encouraging more necessary legal migration.

    Starmer is stupid for continuing his narrative and using it to score chesp political points whilst knowing we need this migration and squandering a golden opportunity 4 years out from an election to try and change the whole narrative around migration.

    They are all stupid.
    The tens of thousands promise was achievable, as Sweden is now demonstrating. What they lacked was a credible plan. We now need to target negative net migration for a sustained period.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    I'd say Brexit absolutely brought EU migration under control, to zero or negative, but then we let rip on non-EU migration.

    That was a choice.

    For a brief period in 2020 we almost did get net migration down to the "tens of thousands".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    edited November 28
    A slightly better poll for Labour.


    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 28% (-1)
    CON: 27% (=)
    RFM: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 27-28 Nov.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1862244829708566662
This discussion has been closed.