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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osborne’s budget is a narrative changer that could have the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osborne’s budget is a narrative changer that could have the same effect on the polls as his October 2007 move on IHT
Downing Street will be delighted with the coverage that Osborne’s budget is getting in the papers this morning and my view is that we could start to see a change in the media narrative.
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LOL
Are you all-green now, then?
Godfrey Bloom isn't too happy with #budget2014! "How we can possibly be giving £1bn a month to Bingo Bingo Land is completely beyond me."
Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff 3h
Let them eat bingo ad is 'patronising' and demeans important policies says Danny Alexander #newsnight
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics 19m
Budget 2014: Danny Alexander ridicules Tories for 'condescending' beer and bingo advert http://tgr.ph/1j90FHi
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith 3h
Danny Alexander brutal on Tory bingo ad: "I thought it was a spoof...It may be our budget but it's their words...quite patronising really."
http://news.sky.com/story/1228904/missing-plane-objects-may-be-mh370-debris
My immediate reaction was that it must be on sea as "objects" suggest debris from a crashed plane but the Mail article linked by Andy was suggesting that the pilot had been practising landing at a remote Indian Ocean island on his Flight Sim.
For the families sake, I think that this point needs urgent clarification.
Aussie Maritime Safety press conference in 50 mins. Aircraft on scene at "2pm", not sure what timezone. Either now (Canberra time) or in a few hours...
http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/missing-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh370-pm-tony-abbott-says-satellite-images-could-be-wreckage-of-crashed-plane-20140320-354ij.html
Only question is how did if end up there? Seems a weird way to commit suicide.
On the other hand, if it was a fire, how could it be bad enough to kill everyone on board, but not serious enough to allow the plane to fly on autopilot for another 7 hours?
Inherent Anglo-Saxon maritime expertise, innit?
If it hadn't been for those pings being transmitted to a British company, the plane probably wouldn't gave been found, assuming it is.
Could be a big scoop in store for (American) ABC's @wrightups who's on the P8 plane arriving at MH370 search site any minute now
'Only question is how did if end up there? Seems a weird way to commit suicide.'
Let me guess... They were the aeronautical version of "boat-people", didn't quite make it, ran out of fuel, and dropped in the drink...
Strewth!
Much simpler explanation.
The plane took a left turn.
I'm not sure how much help the black boxes will be, especially the voice recorder. Maybe the data recorder would give some useful information.
T-2...
Two Aussie, One Kiwi and One US surveillance planes deployed plus a Hercules C130.
Commercial ship on site currently and military ships being deployed to area.
Commercial high resolution satellite images commissioned.
That's fortunate. Maybe it can take a few photos and send them to the Aussies.
Christ-on-a-bike....
David Wright @WrightUps 6h
The electronics on board the P-8 - Top Secret. We have to surrender phones, iPads, laptops & cameras before boarding pic.twitter.com/9yqqyn823m
http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/20032014MediaReleasePossibleDebrisFoundMH370.pdf
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority is coordinating the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines aircraft, with assistance from the Australian Defence Force, the New Zealand Air Force and the United States Navy.
AMSA’s Rescue Coordination Centre Australia has received satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search for the missing aircraft, flight MH370.
RCC Australia received an expert assessment of commercial satellite imagery on Thursday.
The images were captured by satellite. They may not be related to the aircraft.
The assessment of these images was provided by the Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation as a possible indication of debris south of the search area that has been the focus of the search operation.
The imagery is in the vicinity of the search area defined and searched in the past two days.
Four aircraft have been reoriented to the area 2500 kilometres south-west of Perth as a result of this information.
A Royal Australian Air Force Orion aircraft arrived in the area about 1.50pm.
A further three aircraft have been tasked by RCC Australia to the area later today, including a Royal New Zealand Air Force Orion and United States Navy P8 Poseidon aircraft.
The Poseidon aircraft is expected to arrive at 3pm. The second RAAF Orion is expected to depart RAAF Base Pearce at 6pm.
The New Zealand Orion is due to depart at 8pm.
A RAAF C-130 Hercules aircraft has been tasked by RCC Australia to drop datum marker buoys.
These marker buoys assist RCC Australia by providing information about water movement to assist in drift modelling. They will provide an ongoing reference point if the task of relocating the objects becomes protracted.
A merchant ship that responded to a shipping broadcast issued by RCC Australia on Monday is
expected to arrive in the area about 6pm.
Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Success is en route to the area but is some days away from this area. She is well equipped to recover any objects located and proven to be from MH370.
The focus for AMSA is to continue the search operation, with all available assets.
The assets are searching for anything signs of the missing aircraft.
Weather conditions are moderate in the Southern Indian Ocean where the search is taking place. Poor visibility has been reported.
AMSA continues to hold grave concerns for the passengers and crew on board.
Thanks for replying to my question in the previous thread. Appreciated.
For the second group - the Labour returnees - this does nothing. Giving people who can't save extra tax free savings isn't just worthless, it also hammers home that whilst they struggle those with more cash are being given financial help which they can't have.
Then we have the group both sides want - the don't vote any mores. I can see this move motivating them to vote both for Conservative and Labour depending on their circumstance, so its a question of which side can get the most people out and voting.
Final point - its another car crash day for the LibDems. If the savings and pension changes are seen as a good thing, it's clear that its a Tory policy ridiculed by Pox MPs like Danny Alexander last night. If they're seen as unpopular, Pox MPs will trot loyally through the government lobbies thus making it their responsibility. Either way, the motivation to vote LibDem remains concentrated on their remaining activists and few others.
Labour supporters shouldn't dismiss these pension changes (was Ed calling for them ? No ) many many people are now in defined benefit schemes and these changes give much needed flexibility.
LD to Labour switchers are often guardianistas in the public sector, so often with significant savings.
It looks as if Labour is unsure about whether to stick up for annuity providers against reckless pensioners.
The fact that savings/pensions so totally dominates the headlines may actually leave a lot of voters wondering whether the budget has done anything much for them. And I am not sure it will do much to persuade Labour-inclined people to peel away. The Tories have to see Labour regularly scoring below 35% to have a chance in May 2015. And that remains a huge challenge for them.
We have two big concerns.The big “what-if” is care costs. At the moment we’re articulate and quite fit; but what’s going to happen if we do need long-term care.With heavy pressure on local authorities and on the NHS, what’s going to happen. It’s not only a question of being able to save a bit more. We’d have to be able to put a LOT more away to be able to afford 5 star care homes. Even if we did, we’ll still need medical care. That which we’ve had, and seen, from the NHS so far has been excellent, although obviously there are significant pressures on staff.
Secondly, what about our children and, more importantly, our grandchildren. Some on this site decry public sector workers, but someone’s going to be needed, for example, to teach future generations; two of our grandchildren are doing that, and already they’re getting demotivated by the constant extra workloads for no reward.
Younger grandchildren are going through school and we see the constant pressure on those establishments.
The virtuous have had two fingers waved at them for a long time. Not over-borrowing, saving, building a pension pot, being financially responsible - these are things any country needs its citizens to do. But doing so has not yielded any significant benefits in recent years, thus creating some terrible moral hazards ('I don't need to look after myself because the nanny state will look after me').
Yesterday was a return towards the necessary rewarding of good behaviour. And so it will be hard for Labour to criticise.
I am not sure, but I think at least some of the reforms will not be available to public sector employees on final salary schemes. If they all cashed in their pension pots it would leave the government in something of a hole.
What I do think we will see is a reinforcement of existing trends by which Osborne is regarded as a better Chancellor than Balls and the tories more economically competent. Without going all Dan Hodges I do think the article he produced yesterday had a valid point in that Labour simply do not have a coherent or explainable position in terms of economic policy.
This was a part of Miliband's problem. He could not respond with an alternative view because he did not have one so he resorted to silly abuse. Labour are supposed to be reversing the cuts already made but Osborne and Alexander are saying there need to be more, many more and the hard part is choosing where the cuts will fall and the extent to which tax increases are an alternative. This is not the conversation Labour want to have.
Building a consensus around this is the most important part of the budget politically and Chote and the OBR will play an important role in achieving this whether they like it or not. Another Osborne masterstroke is utilised to set the terms of the debate. He is never going to be many people's cup of tea; he can come across as smug, arrogant and complacent but he is a serious political operator, the best since Mandy was in his pomp.
Now who was saying exactly that on the threads y'day..... pats self on back and heads in to a frantic day with baby boomer clients now re-evaluating all we previously had planned...
Its certainly firmed up my vote. I was starting to waver into not voting I have been so pissed/couldn't care off with politics and politicians , especially after my wife died but for GE its Tory nailed on again.(eours couldn't care less) The changes to individual pensions are incredibly far reaching and come just at the right time.. Bravo George and Double Bravo for the joke which was one of the best political jokes I have ever heard.
If the Lib Dems are to get the credit they deserve from this he should be out front and central today explaining how this is going to work and what he has done. He and Clegg apparently don't get on but Clegg needs to promote him today. Alexander called this a great Liberal reform and he was right. They cannot let this be a tory reform.
While the Spads say it's clever not to reveal plans too early since they'll be attacked, I take it the other way and say plans need test destructing and time to sink in. A crap policy will get torn apart whether it's revealed 18 days before the GE or 18 months.
The reason Labour have no policies is that they know as soon they have some they're going to get looked at in detail. And what the economy needs right now is utterly at odds with Labour's ideological baggage.
So not only do they not trust you to spend your own money sensibly, they also think you are too stupid to be allowed a vote on the EU!
Real vote winners, well done Ed!
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26657455
To be sure the notorious Bedford sweetie swindler is now smooching in the direction of my vast organ after a long period in which he indicated that its predictive qualities were on the wane.
Let me advise PBers - lock up your Easter eggs from this fickle fellow and be wary of his tempting approaches to you until you are sure his advances are entirely correct and within the bounds of decency and taste toward my ARSE.
As I have said repeatedly the precariousness of our position is not fully appreciated. So far he is getting away with it but there are no risk free options in the situation we are in. Using that as an advantage in terms of where we go from here is real political skill.
So at the next election what does Labour do? Do they agree to follow tory spending plans? Nothing they have talked about, not even the banker's bonus tax, comes close to changing the terms of play. They either commit themselves to massive tax increases or they have to accept that they will have to choose cuts too. And there is no money for any significant freebies either.
Will wait and see with interest .
If this budget fails to unravel, and continues to be seen as a success both economically and politically, then perhaps the governing parties will start to recover some much needed gravitas.
As for Ed, well it's a tough gig giving the LOTO response to the budget, but this was truly dire stuff. Even the edited highlights from his response on the news (presumably the best bits they could extract) were poor, going mainly with the repeated "living standards (all together now) down" bit which just fell flat. However, I don't expect to see any significanty reduction in the Labour share, if the Tories recover at all, it will be at the expense of UKIP/Others/Don't Knows.
Yelland's announcement that US interest rates could start rising early next year.
Credit crunch in China.
It seems that the Crimea situation is going to fizzle out with a de facto land grab by Russia being successful. Putin would be stupid to try and push into Eastern Ukraine now.
I think this budget is going to be a long slow dribble of good news for all ages as the ramifications of the changes get digested and disseminated. This is likely to change the saving/pension provision for a whole generation. It's likely to be a big as the right to buy revolution of Thatcher years.
The pension changes do not affect him directly, he is on a private sector DB scheme, but after seeing the hammerring pensions got under Gordon he is keen to see savers looked after.
If this budget was aimed at Con to Kipper switchers it has hit at least one target on the bullseye.
So is Hitachi moving just the backroom bosses and salesmen, or is the design work moving over here as well?
If the latter isn't happening, it's slightly disappointing. We can do this stuff really well.
You could well be right, though I suspect Labour will poll closer to 35% than to 30%. They still look best placed to me to get most seats, even though in the normal course of events you'd expect the Tories to be winning outright and quite handily.
The independence referendum has been blown wide open with a new poll showing support for Yes now just five points behind that of No.
The poll, conducted by Panelbase, has revealed that support for independence is now sitting at 40%, its highest mark since campaigning began in earnest, with those against sitting at 45% and Undecided on 15%.
The latest survey, which was commissioned by Newsnet Scotland, surveyed 1036 people between 7-14 March.
The survey asked - "There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on the 18th of September. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?"
The findings mean Yes is up three points since the last Panelbase survey, with No down two. The number of Don't Knows was also down one point. The swing to Yes means the No campaign's lead has halved compared with the previous Panelbase survey in February.
When Don't Knows are stripped out, Yes is on 47% with No on 53%, meaning Yes needs a swing of around three points in order to overtake its rival.
Squeaky bum time for Labour I think.