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The numbers that Tories have to improve – politicalbetting.com
The numbers that Tories have to improve – politicalbetting.com
The Conservatives remain the least favourably viewed of the major partiesNet favourability scoresGreens: -1Lib Dems: -4Labour: -25Reform UK: -29Conservatives: -42https://t.co/C3skIxhuCo pic.twitter.com/xYn7SvxeBY
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EDIT: the linked tweet displays more true.
And first.
No doubt in a few days time when there is analysis and opinion elsewhere pointing this nightmare out then the Beeb will go hard on it as if they’ve just dug the appointment out without anyone else seeing it.
Mad to think the only thing
savingdenying us from a Green administration is the archaic FPTP systemNo two ways about it.
About 50/50, I'd guess.
The principled Republicans in Congress have regularly demonstrated their cowardice when it comes to defying Trump.
Trump stuns with Gaetz, Gabbard picks
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4989408-trump-picks-gaetz-gabbard/
..Trump tapped a loyalist to lead a Justice Department he has railed against both inside and outside of the White House — one he sees as a vehicle for carrying out the retribution he has vowed his perceived enemies would see under a second term.
In Gabbard, Trump selected a figure who has floated numerous conspiracy theories that defy the conclusions reached by the U.S. intelligence agencies she would oversee. She has routinely espoused narratives likewise peddled by Russia.
Gaetz’s selection seemed to catch lawmakers off guard. He was not among the names reported to be up for the position, and Democrats are sure to raise that he was previously investigated as part of a sex-trafficking probe launched by the Justice Department.
As House Republicans met Wednesday afternoon to start leadership elections, one source said there were audible gasps when Gaetz was announced as Trump’s pick for attorney general.
The picks also raise questions about Trump’s ability to get his nominees through even a Republican-led Senate...
They carry a large amount of non-environmental baggage, and the sheer impracticality of some of their environmental policies does their cause a disservice.
Branding triumphs, I guess.
You don’t have to be liked. Just, less disliked than your main opponent.
There’s also now a horrible cross fertilisation with other programming, eg yesterday they wouldn’t stop going on about that fecking Russian spy whale when it wasn’t much more than a ‘now finally’ skateboarding dog thing. Lo and behold there’s a whole bloody tv doc following on in the evening!
If the Senate confirms, despite the clear disgust if at least half a dozen Republican Senators, they've effectively signalled surrender to anything Trump demands.
If they refuse, they'll probably confirm anyone else, however extreme (Paxton, for example), on the rebound.
Gabbard is just 😱
Which is probably the intention.
(First guess, there's an asymmetry in how Ref and Con see each other. Lots of Conservatives seem to see Reform as decent chaps, just tactically mistaken. Whereas those who have jumped to Reform really really hate the Tories.)
That still requires the acquiescence of the Senate.
Why is what I believe in so hated, and how do I change that?
Again, I think the Lib Dem figures remain more of a concern for the Tories. I assume they are working hard to consolidate a local base in the constituencies they won, and Ed Davey is just a nice bloke.
The Lib Dems win seats by being preferred to the alternative by people both of the left and right in their target sears. Tactical voting works in their favour. If I were in a Reform seat, I would tactically vote against them in favour of whichever of the other four parties were best places to challenge. I'm sure many others would do the same.
I would suggest that Reform actually consists of a lot of Tory hating racists and that very few of their voters would consider voting Tory...
But yes, the branding is annoying. It means everyone assumes the party that’s best on green issues is the eponymous one. There have been multiple times more interventions, campaigns and solid policy proposals from the Lib Dems on the environment over the past 2 decades than from the Green Party.
https://x.com/JDVance/status/1856862556628951435
The main issue with Matt Gaetz is that he used his office to prosecute his political opponents and authorized federal agents to harass parents who were peacefully protesting at school board meetings.
Oh wait, that's actually Merrick Garland, the current attorney general.
From their perspective I can see the Corbynista angle probably gets them more MPs than the green protest vote can.
*twitter smart is not actually smart for clarification.
Both are appointments that cast democratic government in the worst possible light.
It does Require Rightness, as a bare minimum. Hence the serial incompetence of recent years was so toxic.
The GOP are selling out American democracy to Russia.
Voters have already shown they will vote Indy instead of Labour and I am sure Reform and LDs will be a threat in many constituencies instead of the Conservatives.
I would put it down to:
Bad luck on economy (yes same as Dems over there)
Saying one thing vehemently whilst doing the opposite or nothing
Backstabbing and division
Incompetence and corruption
If somehow Trump runs again through legal shenanigans with the two-term limit still ostensibly in place, I think it would be most unadvisable to run a termed-out opponent - even Obama.
The rule of law in the USA is breaking down.
How long before you come back over here permanently?
Reality is that those pay increases are only enough to stop more people leaving they aren't enough (in most cases) to encourage people to join.
Hardly surprising when at the bottom the Government pay less than the worst private sector call centre...
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/countries-are-losing-the-fight-with-tech-titans-txtt9b5ck
It does raise the question though of what happens when Musk and Trump fall out. Is that civil war?
SCOTUS says so...
That Putin is Russian is irrelevant to them, that he is in favour of autocratic kleptocracy is what is important.
How did they get on in the North East locals last week ?
The practicality of the solutions offered by a national mandate are unlikely to be tested. Compromise in their direction would be popular. Eg renationalising water, grid, rail, all easy to see why you might go that way. Wealth tax too.
In the longer term the corbynista lot are probably going to be unhelpful. But short term, they fill the ranks.
It's clear this morning that there's literally no depth Trump can stoop to which might trouble you.
It's frustrating, because the Gabbard appointment is much more important for the world outside the US, and I wish the BBC would make its own judgements about what is most important to Britain, rather than following the domestic US news.
Ask the Saudis.
The US now absolutely dominates global capital.
Any "global" tracker is 66 - 70ish % US.
If we had 5 quality applications for every post, by all means be strict on pay and pensions, but not when we have shortages and end up paying the same people far more expensive day rates instead.
Selective non enforcement of the law is also a very powerful political tool.
Musk owns a car company, a space exploration company, and the fourth most popular social media platform in the US. SpaceX is the only strategic asset he holds, which could be nationalised on national security grounds if it threatened to leave.
The US military annual budget is almost 3x Musk's net worth.
Musk is influential while he is in favour. Let's not overestimate his power though.
But it's also orders of magnitude less egregious than what Musky Baby and his techbro shit friends have done this time.
Gabbard is a former Dem and Sanders supporter so the BBC have a natural sympathy towards her.
Without some gerrymandering in North Carolina, it would be down to one (albeit, offset by Democratic gerrymandering in New York).
I moan about the quality of ministers in the UK, but what Trump is up to by picking people on their willingness to serve him rather than the country makes our government look great.
God help America and us all.
When it comes to the crunch, who will be the dog, who will be the tail, and who will be the deposit the dog's just left on the pavement?
I suspect the Dems take control even before the mid terms.
FPT: It's very much worthwhile, you just need to take slight care with how you describe yourself. Go for something like "house renovator", or "gardener".
The saving money game at Wickes is a little different than it used to be, when they had lots of continuous and occasional "4 for 3" and so on, so timing could be tweaked for bank holidays etc. They were always the best for certain bulk materials, such as Postcrete, as long as you had X (usually 4 or 5) bags. But Postcrete, like plaster, can't be kept for *that* long.
Another big thing can be delivery charges. Wickes have a threshold of maybe a £250 order for free delivery, and £25 or something for less than that, whilst around here Travis Perkins used to charge about £5.
When Buildhub started back in 2016, I posted a pinned thread that has loads of wrinkles on it. A basic technique as ever is to climb up the supply chain - so the same fencing stuff (if they have it on their range) from your local agricultural supplier will be about 2/3 less than from Wickes, and perhaps 80% less than B&Q. I still get 3.6m half round fencing rails (twas fun collecting 25 in a Vauxhall Corsa) for about £6, for example, and the smallest 5'6" 2-3" knocker-posts for ~£2.
I tend not to bother with B&Q, unless only they have it, as their trade discounts seem to be only on random products, unless eg it is a sheet material and I can use their free-cutting-up service rather than taking trestles and a battery jigsaw to the car park. TBF by far the best ever discount I had anywhere was when their computer had the decimal point in the wrong place on a batch of nearly 30sqm of flooring I needed; it was all in my car in minutes once they had said "yes, that's right". 90% off
Link:
https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/426-creditdebit-reward-cards-discounts-etc/
“Musky, Musky Baby.”
“”What’s that?”
“It’s my safe word.”
“F*ck your safe word, you little bitch!”
The actual seat changes from 2022 look likely to be:
PN GOP +2
MI GOP +1
CO GOP +1
AK GOP +1
CA Dem +1
OR Dem +1
Trump is terrified of going to prison.
Is it just me, or does Matt Gaetz look and behave like a downmarket version of Borat?
That is how these campaigns go through $1bn...
(And yes, I agree that the American political system is polluted by money. But that's the way they seem to want to keep it, and I'd argue what Musk did was much worse.)
Paying Al Sharpton to interview you on MSNBC is also super dodgy. As is paying influencers to post all over social media vote for a candidate (i got a $20 million for this, but i don't have to tell you this). The Harris.campaign was spamming every influencer they could find, here is $10k if you make a post.
It is all very grubby and dishonest.
"My wife and I live in very different TikTok algorithms."
https://youtu.be/7z1oLY6VkbQ?t=534