Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

What the late Queen really thought about Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com

2

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    MaxPB said:

    I think what might be very interesting in the event of a UK/US trade deal is US companies in Ireland decamping to the UK especially now that Ireland's tax advantage has been hugely eroded by the ECJ.

    There's potentially a big chunk of growth that we can grab very quickly with a trade deal.

    As I said, not happening under Starmer, he will put closer agreement with Ireland and the rest of the EU and if necessary cross European tariffs on US imports ahead of any trade deal with Trump
  • Opportunity to again note that John Major’s dad was born in 1879.

    https://x.com/TomBFlanagan/status/1855593523375915032
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/09/social-media-traditional-news-elections-00188548

    The exit polls did not ask about media consumption, so we need to look for indirect clues. NBC asked the question in April when President Joe Biden was still in the race, and the results were dramatic. Among people who got their news from “newspapers,” Biden was winning 70-21. Among people who got their news from “YouTube/Google,” Trump led 55-39.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    UK trade with the US is pretty good already and a trade deal takes years going through Congress. The obvious sticking points before were US Agriculture and the NHS. Has anything changed? The priority is avoiding tariffs.
    A trade deal may be the only way to avoid the tariffs. US healthcare companies can already bid for NHS contracts so I don't think that's a barrier and Trump has previously said he thinks NICE should be replicated for Medicare and Medicaid to stop big pharma from ripping off the federal government so that probably won't be a barrier either.
    Remember though, the trade deal only exists so long as you stay in Trump and Elon's good books.

    What if Trump and Elon got pissy and the UK's support of OneWeb?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,176
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    UK trade with the US is pretty good already and a trade deal takes years going through Congress. The obvious sticking points before were US Agriculture and the NHS. Has anything changed? The priority is avoiding tariffs.
    A trade deal may be the only way to avoid the tariffs. US healthcare companies can already bid for NHS contracts so I don't think that's a barrier and Trump has previously said he thinks NICE should be replicated for Medicare and Medicaid to stop big pharma from ripping off the federal government so that probably won't be a barrier either.
    In US health care, something to watch is whether Trump tries to push through what he was blocked by Congress & the Senate from doing last time... repeal the laws preventing negotiating prices for bulk buying pharmaceuticals in the US.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,534
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    Tories and Reform may well agree with you.

    Starmer doesn't, hence as the Telegraph reports today his team are wargaming sanctions on US imports as his Labour government throws in its lot with the EU, Communist China and Lula's populist left Brazil in the coming trade war with Trump's US
    Labour's progress in Scotland will come to a screeching halt if whisky gets slapped with a 200% tariff in the US.

    And those who like Jack Daniels and Jim Beam might want to stock up.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,771
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    UK trade with the US is pretty good already and a trade deal takes years going through Congress. The obvious sticking points before were US Agriculture and the NHS. Has anything changed? The priority is avoiding tariffs.
    A trade deal may be the only way to avoid the tariffs. US healthcare companies can already bid for NHS contracts so I don't think that's a barrier and Trump has previously said he thinks NICE should be replicated for Medicare and Medicaid to stop big pharma from ripping off the federal government so that probably won't be a barrier either.
    Remember though, the trade deal only exists so long as you stay in Trump and Elon's good books.

    What if Trump and Elon got pissy and the UK's support of OneWeb?
    I think let's see what Trump asks for, there's a cost of doing business. If the cost is too high then we live with the tariffs for 4 years and hope that MAGA loses in 2028.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    Opportunity to again note that John Major’s dad was born in 1879.

    https://x.com/TomBFlanagan/status/1855593523375915032

    I love that they line up the past PMs in order.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,630
    edited November 10
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what might be very interesting in the event of a UK/US trade deal is US companies in Ireland decamping to the UK especially now that Ireland's tax advantage has been hugely eroded by the ECJ.

    There's potentially a big chunk of growth that we can grab very quickly with a trade deal.

    As I said, not happening under Starmer, he will put closer agreement with Ireland and the rest of the EU and if necessary cross European tariffs on US imports ahead of any trade deal with Trump
    Depends which Starmer we get. If we get the Starmer who won the Labour leadership, then turfed out the left, and studiously avoided the culture war during the GE campaign, then I can see kinda see it.

    It all rests on what Trump does with Ukraine. If he hands them over to Putin, Starmer can't follow and he will align with the EU.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    I disagree entirely. We neither need nor should want a trade deal with the US beyond what we already have - which curenlty means a substantial trade surplus with the US. We know from experience (both our own and the experience of others) that a trade deal with the US is a poisoned challice and we should waste no time nor effort in pursuing one.
    Our trade surplus comes from services exports to the US so I don't see how anything changes there. If anything we could do even better if there was equivalence in regulations agreed between both sides for data, tech, finance, AI etc... as we'd remove a big barrier for services exports and more US companies would be able to utilise the lower salary structure of the UK to hire loads of £60-150k roles.

    On goods I'm not sure it will make a huge amount of difference, the public isn't really ready to accept US food. In the margins I think some premium US imports could do well but people who want parmesan will still buy Italian parmesan, people who want to make bread are still going to get the £1.20 1.5KG bread flour made from UK grain and it's not as though US agriculture is very competitive now, as we've all been discussing food prices are very high in the US so the structural advantage that US agriculture had last time this was being discussed has all but gone.
    Ummm:

    Project 2025 specifically called out services imports (specifically referring to offshore call centers), so you may the optimistic.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,176
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    UK trade with the US is pretty good already and a trade deal takes years going through Congress. The obvious sticking points before were US Agriculture and the NHS. Has anything changed? The priority is avoiding tariffs.
    A trade deal may be the only way to avoid the tariffs. US healthcare companies can already bid for NHS contracts so I don't think that's a barrier and Trump has previously said he thinks NICE should be replicated for Medicare and Medicaid to stop big pharma from ripping off the federal government so that probably won't be a barrier either.
    Remember though, the trade deal only exists so long as you stay in Trump and Elon's good books.

    What if Trump and Elon got pissy and the UK's support of OneWeb?
    SpaceX have a very good relationship with OneWeb. When OneWeb was stuffed by Russia stealing their satellites (which were supposed to be launched in Russia), SpaceX stepped in and launched the replacements at a cheaper price than the Russians had been charging and did so very rapidly.

    SpaceX are actively bidding to launch any future tranche of satellites for OneWeb.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    UK trade with the US is pretty good already and a trade deal takes years going through Congress. The obvious sticking points before were US Agriculture and the NHS. Has anything changed? The priority is avoiding tariffs.
    A trade deal may be the only way to avoid the tariffs. US healthcare companies can already bid for NHS contracts so I don't think that's a barrier and Trump has previously said he thinks NICE should be replicated for Medicare and Medicaid to stop big pharma from ripping off the federal government so that probably won't be a barrier either.
    Remember though, the trade deal only exists so long as you stay in Trump and Elon's good books.

    What if Trump and Elon got pissy and the UK's support of OneWeb?
    I think let's see what Trump asks for, there's a cost of doing business. If the cost is too high then we live with the tariffs for 4 years and hope that MAGA loses in 2028.
    We benefit from a rules based international order.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,976
    Did Nigel Fucking Farage really fly back just to bitch about not being at the Cenotaph?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited November 10

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    Tories and Reform may well agree with you.

    Starmer doesn't, hence as the Telegraph reports today his team are wargaming sanctions on US imports as his Labour government throws in its lot with the EU, Communist China and Lula's populist left Brazil in the coming trade war with Trump's US
    Labour's progress in Scotland will come to a screeching halt if whisky gets slapped with a 200% tariff in the US.

    And those who like Jack Daniels and Jim Beam might want to stock up.
    Whisky comes from rural Scotland which is all Tory and SNP and LD mainly, Labour's base is in urban central belt Scotland. Labour doesn't care much about rural Scotland anymore than it does largely Tory and LD rural England and rural Wales
  • Having thought about possible UK ambassadors to Don Don I conclude that Millipede major, Mandelbrot and Dalek woman do not meet a vital criteria.

    They do not play golf.

    To deal with Trump you have to look strong at a level he understands.

    Trump likes to play golf and cheats.

    We need a golfer and someone willing to cheat.

    A chance of redemption for Prince Andrew perhaps ?

    Or how about this new Labour MP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Leishman

    Leishman is a member of the Professional Golfers' Association, and has received a Bachelor of Arts in golf management from Abertay University. He has coached at numerous Scottish golf clubs, including Alloa Golf Club where he owned a shop prior to his election to Parliament.

    Likewise is there anyone in the cabinet who plays golf ?

    McFadden, Healey, Reynolds might be our best hopes.

    If not perhaps its time for Lord Kinabalu of PB.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,976
    rcs1000 said:

    We benefit from a rules based international order.

    Like the one we left...

    https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1855677397900959851

    Why doesn't this guy just move on
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited November 10
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what might be very interesting in the event of a UK/US trade deal is US companies in Ireland decamping to the UK especially now that Ireland's tax advantage has been hugely eroded by the ECJ.

    There's potentially a big chunk of growth that we can grab very quickly with a trade deal.

    As I said, not happening under Starmer, he will put closer agreement with Ireland and the rest of the EU and if necessary cross European tariffs on US imports ahead of any trade deal with Trump
    Depends which Starmer we get. If we get the Starmer who won the Labour leadership, then turfed out the left, and studiously avoided the culture war during the GE campaign, then I can see kinda see it.

    It all rests on what Trump does with Ukraine. If he hands them over to Putin, Starmer can't follow and he will align with the EU.
    'Ministers are “wargaming” imposing tariffs on American goods in retaliation for protectionist measures threatened by Donald Trump. The president-elect has said he will impose a flat tariff of 10-20 per cent on all goods imported into the United States under an “America First” trade policy that has caused panic in European capitals, as well as a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China.

    Economists have warned that Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs and any consequent trade war could do significant damage to the UK economy, pushing up inflation and interest rates.

    Officials at the Department for Business and Trade are now understood to be commissioning advice and forecasts on a range of economic scenarios that could emerge under a Trump presidency.

    This includes possible retaliatory action and counter measures, including the possible imposition of counter sanctions on US exports to Britain.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/09/downing-street-war-gaming-responses-trump-trade-tariffs/
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,566
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    UK trade with the US is pretty good already and a trade deal takes years going through Congress. The obvious sticking points before were US Agriculture and the NHS. Has anything changed? The priority is avoiding tariffs.
    A trade deal may be the only way to avoid the tariffs. US healthcare companies can already bid for NHS contracts so I don't think that's a barrier and Trump has previously said he thinks NICE should be replicated for Medicare and Medicaid to stop big pharma from ripping off the federal government so that probably won't be a barrier either.
    Remember though, the trade deal only exists so long as you stay in Trump and Elon's good books.

    What if Trump and Elon got pissy and the UK's support of OneWeb?
    Doesn't he put their satellites in orbit these days, since OneWeb can't have the russians do it any more?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    edited November 10

    Having thought about possible UK ambassadors to Don Don I conclude that Millipede major, Mandelbrot and Dalek woman do not meet a vital criteria.

    They do not play golf.

    To deal with Trump you have to look strong at a level he understands.

    Trump likes to play golf and cheats.

    We need a golfer and someone willing to cheat.

    A chance of redemption for Prince Andrew perhaps ?

    Or how about this new Labour MP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Leishman

    Leishman is a member of the Professional Golfers' Association, and has received a Bachelor of Arts in golf management from Abertay University. He has coached at numerous Scottish golf clubs, including Alloa Golf Club where he owned a shop prior to his election to Parliament.

    Likewise is there anyone in the cabinet who plays golf ?

    McFadden, Healey, Reynolds might be our best hopes.

    If not perhaps its time for Lord Kinabalu of PB.

    Genuinely someone who plays a lot of golf probably is a good idea.

    If we gift him a set of golf clubs that used to belong to a historic royal he will love it too.
  • MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    UK trade with the US is pretty good already and a trade deal takes years going through Congress. The obvious sticking points before were US Agriculture and the NHS. Has anything changed? The priority is avoiding tariffs.
    The odd thing about UK/US trade is that both sides' statistics show a trade surplus.
    In which case both sides have good reason not to meddle.
  • The constitutional meddling was the imbecilic Fixed-term Parliament Act.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,976
    @kaitlancollins

    Musk endorses Rick Scott for majority leader.

    https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/1855704604975210671
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    I disagree entirely. We neither need nor should want a trade deal with the US beyond what we already have - which curenlty means a substantial trade surplus with the US. We know from experience (both our own and the experience of others) that a trade deal with the US is a poisoned challice and we should waste no time nor effort in pursuing one.
    I think we wait and see what crap he comes out with, before deciding a response.
  • kle4 said:

    Opportunity to again note that John Major’s dad was born in 1879.

    https://x.com/TomBFlanagan/status/1855593523375915032

    I love that they line up the past PMs in order.
    And there are so many of them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    UK trade with the US is pretty good already and a trade deal takes years going through Congress. The obvious sticking points before were US Agriculture and the NHS. Has anything changed? The priority is avoiding tariffs.
    The odd thing about UK/US trade is that both sides' statistics show a trade surplus.
    Shhhhh.

    Don’t get them looking too closely.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,630
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what might be very interesting in the event of a UK/US trade deal is US companies in Ireland decamping to the UK especially now that Ireland's tax advantage has been hugely eroded by the ECJ.

    There's potentially a big chunk of growth that we can grab very quickly with a trade deal.

    As I said, not happening under Starmer, he will put closer agreement with Ireland and the rest of the EU and if necessary cross European tariffs on US imports ahead of any trade deal with Trump
    Depends which Starmer we get. If we get the Starmer who won the Labour leadership, then turfed out the left, and studiously avoided the culture war during the GE campaign, then I can see kinda see it.

    It all rests on what Trump does with Ukraine. If he hands them over to Putin, Starmer can't follow and he will align with the EU.
    'Ministers are “wargaming” imposing tariffs on American goods in retaliation for protectionist measures threatened by Donald Trump. The president-elect has said he will impose a flat tariff of 10-20 per cent on all goods imported into the United States under an “America First” trade policy that has caused panic in European capitals, as well as a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China.

    Economists have warned that Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs and any consequent trade war could do significant damage to the UK economy, pushing up inflation and interest rates.

    Officials at the Department for Business and Trade are now understood to be commissioning advice and forecasts on a range of economic scenarios that could emerge under a Trump presidency.

    This includes possible retaliatory action and counter measures, including the possible imposition of counter sanctions on US exports to Britain.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/09/downing-street-war-gaming-responses-trump-trade-tariffs/
    1) That's a link to the Telegraph

    2) I do hope civil servants are preparing options. That's the job.
  • HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what might be very interesting in the event of a UK/US trade deal is US companies in Ireland decamping to the UK especially now that Ireland's tax advantage has been hugely eroded by the ECJ.

    There's potentially a big chunk of growth that we can grab very quickly with a trade deal.

    As I said, not happening under Starmer, he will put closer agreement with Ireland and the rest of the EU and if necessary cross European tariffs on US imports ahead of any trade deal with Trump
    Depends which Starmer we get. If we get the Starmer who won the Labour leadership, then turfed out the left, and studiously avoided the culture war during the GE campaign, then I can see kinda see it.

    It all rests on what Trump does with Ukraine. If he hands them over to Putin, Starmer can't follow and he will align with the EU.
    'Ministers are “wargaming” imposing tariffs on American goods in retaliation for protectionist measures threatened by Donald Trump. The president-elect has said he will impose a flat tariff of 10-20 per cent on all goods imported into the United States under an “America First” trade policy that has caused panic in European capitals, as well as a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China.

    Economists have warned that Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs and any consequent trade war could do significant damage to the UK economy, pushing up inflation and interest rates.

    Officials at the Department for Business and Trade are now understood to be commissioning advice and forecasts on a range of economic scenarios that could emerge under a Trump presidency.

    This includes possible retaliatory action and counter measures, including the possible imposition of counter sanctions on US exports to Britain.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/09/downing-street-war-gaming-responses-trump-trade-tariffs/
    Imposing extra taxes on travel to the USA would be better.

    Tariffs on imports might hit business and the poor, more expensive Florida holidays will not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/09/social-media-traditional-news-elections-00188548

    The exit polls did not ask about media consumption, so we need to look for indirect clues. NBC asked the question in April when President Joe Biden was still in the race, and the results were dramatic. Among people who got their news from “newspapers,” Biden was winning 70-21. Among people who got their news from “YouTube/Google,” Trump led 55-39.

    Before he dropped our, Biden’s internal polling was showing Trump winning 400 EVs.
    Which is a good measure of his hubris in not doing so before the primaries.

    Arguably, his biggest error of judgment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited November 10

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what might be very interesting in the event of a UK/US trade deal is US companies in Ireland decamping to the UK especially now that Ireland's tax advantage has been hugely eroded by the ECJ.

    There's potentially a big chunk of growth that we can grab very quickly with a trade deal.

    As I said, not happening under Starmer, he will put closer agreement with Ireland and the rest of the EU and if necessary cross European tariffs on US imports ahead of any trade deal with Trump
    Depends which Starmer we get. If we get the Starmer who won the Labour leadership, then turfed out the left, and studiously avoided the culture war during the GE campaign, then I can see kinda see it.

    It all rests on what Trump does with Ukraine. If he hands them over to Putin, Starmer can't follow and he will align with the EU.
    'Ministers are “wargaming” imposing tariffs on American goods in retaliation for protectionist measures threatened by Donald Trump. The president-elect has said he will impose a flat tariff of 10-20 per cent on all goods imported into the United States under an “America First” trade policy that has caused panic in European capitals, as well as a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China.

    Economists have warned that Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs and any consequent trade war could do significant damage to the UK economy, pushing up inflation and interest rates.

    Officials at the Department for Business and Trade are now understood to be commissioning advice and forecasts on a range of economic scenarios that could emerge under a Trump presidency.

    This includes possible retaliatory action and counter measures, including the possible imposition of counter sanctions on US exports to Britain.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/09/downing-street-war-gaming-responses-trump-trade-tariffs/
    Imposing extra taxes on travel to the USA would be better.

    Tariffs on imports might hit business and the poor, more expensive Florida holidays will not.
    Trump is also imposing tariffs which will hit US poor and middle income earners, inevitably if so it will be tat for tat on every nation he imposes them on.

    That will also hit his voters this time. According to NBC's exit poll while Harris won voters earning under
    $30, 000, Trump won most voters earning from $30,000 - $99,999 with Harris winning higher earning voters earning $100,000-$199,999 and over $200,000
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls
  • Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    I disagree entirely. We neither need nor should want a trade deal with the US beyond what we already have - which curenlty means a substantial trade surplus with the US. We know from experience (both our own and the experience of others) that a trade deal with the US is a poisoned challice and we should waste no time nor effort in pursuing one.
    I think we wait and see what crap he comes out with, before deciding a response.
    This isn't just about Trump. A free trade deal with the US is a bad idea under any President.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,176
    edited November 10
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    UK trade with the US is pretty good already and a trade deal takes years going through Congress. The obvious sticking points before were US Agriculture and the NHS. Has anything changed? The priority is avoiding tariffs.
    A trade deal may be the only way to avoid the tariffs. US healthcare companies can already bid for NHS contracts so I don't think that's a barrier and Trump has previously said he thinks NICE should be replicated for Medicare and Medicaid to stop big pharma from ripping off the federal government so that probably won't be a barrier either.
    Remember though, the trade deal only exists so long as you stay in Trump and Elon's good books.

    What if Trump and Elon got pissy and the UK's support of OneWeb?
    Doesn't he put their satellites in orbit these days, since OneWeb can't have the russians do it any more?
    Yes - and a low price. And more importantly, rapidly. With every other launch company on the planet, you need to book a launch years in advance. The replacement OneWeb data were launched almost immediately after they were built.

    Because of reusability, SpaceX just need to build another upper stage per launch. And they are already making 1 every 3 days.

    In an amusing twist, because SpaceX fill their launch schedule with Starlink launches, then substitute paying customers loads instead, in effect, SpaceX cancelled Starlink launches to launch OneWeb. They gave their rivals priority over their own sats….
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,336

    Where to the pro free speech people stand on this?

    Celtic fans sing pro-IRA songs as Remembrance Sunday tribute scrapped after nine seconds

    Suspected Green Brigade members wave Irish and Palestinian flags in an act of defiance against Britain’s war dead


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/11/10/celtic-fans-remembrance-sunday-tribute-pro-ira-palestine/

    Let the scum show themselves up for what they are.
  • Nigelb said:

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/09/social-media-traditional-news-elections-00188548

    The exit polls did not ask about media consumption, so we need to look for indirect clues. NBC asked the question in April when President Joe Biden was still in the race, and the results were dramatic. Among people who got their news from “newspapers,” Biden was winning 70-21. Among people who got their news from “YouTube/Google,” Trump led 55-39.

    Before he dropped our, Biden’s internal polling was showing Trump winning 400 EVs.
    Which is a good measure of his hubris in not doing so before the primaries.

    Arguably, his biggest error of judgment.
    Aided and abetted by his cabinet and possibly senior Dems.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    .

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    UK trade with the US is pretty good already and a trade deal takes years going through Congress. The obvious sticking points before were US Agriculture and the NHS. Has anything changed? The priority is avoiding tariffs.
    The odd thing about UK/US trade is that both sides' statistics show a trade surplus.
    In which case both sides have good reason not to meddle.
    One side will soon have an absence of good reason, however.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Musk will share Dominic Cummings' fate if he keeps overshadowing the boss.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited November 10
    Nigelb said:

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/09/social-media-traditional-news-elections-00188548

    The exit polls did not ask about media consumption, so we need to look for indirect clues. NBC asked the question in April when President Joe Biden was still in the race, and the results were dramatic. Among people who got their news from “newspapers,” Biden was winning 70-21. Among people who got their news from “YouTube/Google,” Trump led 55-39.

    Before he dropped our, Biden’s internal polling was showing Trump winning 400 EVs.
    Which is a good measure of his hubris in not doing so before the primaries.

    Arguably, his biggest error of judgment.
    Biden did actually beat Trump in 2020 and if he did not have dementia may well have done again, though costs of living still gave Trump the edge.

    Harris was simply too woke and elitist coastal liberal for middle America. As I posted earlier this election was the first election the Democratic presidential candidate won most voters earning over $100,000 a year ever but also the first election the Republican candidate won most voters earning $30,000-$50,000 since Reagan and Bush 1988 and there are more of the latter than the former once you add those earning $50k to $100k Trump also won
  • An alternate history:

    1) Biden doesn't abandon border control.

    2) Biden appoints a dynamic Attorney General instead of Merrick Garland

    3) Biden nominates Harris to replace Breyer on Scotus

    4) Biden announces he will not run for re-election early in 2023
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,362

    Scott_xP said:
    Musk will share Dominic Cummings' fate if he keeps overshadowing the boss.
    It does seem quite possible that the bromance between Trump and Musk will be short-lived, given the volatility of the two characters. Affairs that are very passionate to start with often end in tears.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,176

    Scott_xP said:
    Musk will share Dominic Cummings' fate if he keeps overshadowing the boss.
    It does seem quite possible that the bromance between Trump and Musk will be short-lived, given the volatility of the two characters. Affairs that are very passionate to start with often end in tears.
    Interestingly, no one has mentioned their previous falling out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,176

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    I disagree entirely. We neither need nor should want a trade deal with the US beyond what we already have - which curenlty means a substantial trade surplus with the US. We know from experience (both our own and the experience of others) that a trade deal with the US is a poisoned challice and we should waste no time nor effort in pursuing one.
    I think we wait and see what crap he comes out with, before deciding a response.
    This isn't just about Trump. A free trade deal with the US is a bad idea under any President.
    Why?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775

    Scott_xP said:
    Musk will share Dominic Cummings' fate if he keeps overshadowing the boss.
    Only he'll pay $40bn for substack first, then auto-subscribe everyone to his posts.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what might be very interesting in the event of a UK/US trade deal is US companies in Ireland decamping to the UK especially now that Ireland's tax advantage has been hugely eroded by the ECJ.

    There's potentially a big chunk of growth that we can grab very quickly with a trade deal.

    As I said, not happening under Starmer, he will put closer agreement with Ireland and the rest of the EU and if necessary cross European tariffs on US imports ahead of any trade deal with Trump
    Depends which Starmer we get. If we get the Starmer who won the Labour leadership, then turfed out the left, and studiously avoided the culture war during the GE campaign, then I can see kinda see it.

    It all rests on what Trump does with Ukraine. If he hands them over to Putin, Starmer can't follow and he will align with the EU.
    'Ministers are “wargaming” imposing tariffs on American goods in retaliation for protectionist measures threatened by Donald Trump. The president-elect has said he will impose a flat tariff of 10-20 per cent on all goods imported into the United States under an “America First” trade policy that has caused panic in European capitals, as well as a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China.

    Economists have warned that Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs and any consequent trade war could do significant damage to the UK economy, pushing up inflation and interest rates.

    Officials at the Department for Business and Trade are now understood to be commissioning advice and forecasts on a range of economic scenarios that could emerge under a Trump presidency.

    This includes possible retaliatory action and counter measures, including the possible imposition of counter sanctions on US exports to Britain.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/09/downing-street-war-gaming-responses-trump-trade-tariffs/
    Imposing extra taxes on travel to the USA would be better.

    Tariffs on imports might hit business and the poor, more expensive Florida holidays will not.
    Hitting business and the poor is kinda where we're at though? Ideally both.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    It's hard to imagine HMQ calling anyone an "idiot" much less her Prime Minister.

    Doesn't ring true?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,390
    Been busy all day so dont know if this has been posted.

    https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6v3edv3p9o

    No idea if terrorism or not, but recent events spring to mind. Why not just say no idea of motive?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,390
    GIN1138 said:

    It's hard to imagine HMQ calling anyone an "idiot" much less her Prime Minister.

    Doesn't ring true?

    It’s very easy to tell stories. See also alleged UAP shit in America.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,051

    An alternate history:

    1) Biden doesn't abandon border control.

    2) Biden appoints a dynamic Attorney General instead of Merrick Garland

    3) Biden nominates Harris to replace Breyer on Scotus

    4) Biden announces he will not run for re-election early in 2023

    Biden did what he did because of inner beliefs and rapidly increasing senility. For your alternatehistory to work, he would have to be a totally different person.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,911
    edited November 10

    My friend thinks Poppy Day is the epitome of virtue signalling.

    Is he right?


    James Ball

    @jamesrbuk

    Fantastic final word on the poppy debate from the Guardian’s letter page. But as a warning it does contain a spoiler for a 103-year-old novel.

    "In The Unpleasantness At The Bellona Club by Dorothy L. Sayers, Lord Peter Whimsey is able to date the murder of Gen Fentiman to 10 November and not, as first thought, Armistice Day, as the general was not wearing a poppy, which, of course, he would have been on 11 November. If, in 1921, a patriotic soldier who fought in the Great War wore his poppy on, and only on, 11 November, perhaps our public figures could do the same a hundred years later without being bullied and shamed.

    Rosemary Chamberlin
    Bristol"

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1855219642408607833
  • Been busy all day so dont know if this has been posted.

    https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6v3edv3p9o

    No idea if terrorism or not, but recent events spring to mind. Why not just say no idea of motive?

    A man, believed to be in his 60s, was arrested at the scene and then taken into custody.

    It is understood the incident was mental-health related.

    Police confirmed it was not being treated as terrorism and they were not looking for anyone else.

    https://news.sky.com/story/man-killed-after-three-people-stabbed-at-east-street-market-in-south-london-13251053
  • Scott_xP said:
    Musk will share Dominic Cummings' fate if he keeps overshadowing the boss.
    It does seem quite possible that the bromance between Trump and Musk will be short-lived, given the volatility of the two characters. Affairs that are very passionate to start with often end in tears.
    Interestingly, no one has mentioned their previous falling out.
    Remind me...

    (When the fall-out happens, who wins? Trump is in the big chair, but Vance and co will presumably be happy to 25th Amendment him if he causes too much trouble.)
  • ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what might be very interesting in the event of a UK/US trade deal is US companies in Ireland decamping to the UK especially now that Ireland's tax advantage has been hugely eroded by the ECJ.

    There's potentially a big chunk of growth that we can grab very quickly with a trade deal.

    As I said, not happening under Starmer, he will put closer agreement with Ireland and the rest of the EU and if necessary cross European tariffs on US imports ahead of any trade deal with Trump
    Depends which Starmer we get. If we get the Starmer who won the Labour leadership, then turfed out the left, and studiously avoided the culture war during the GE campaign, then I can see kinda see it.

    It all rests on what Trump does with Ukraine. If he hands them over to Putin, Starmer can't follow and he will align with the EU.
    'Ministers are “wargaming” imposing tariffs on American goods in retaliation for protectionist measures threatened by Donald Trump. The president-elect has said he will impose a flat tariff of 10-20 per cent on all goods imported into the United States under an “America First” trade policy that has caused panic in European capitals, as well as a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China.

    Economists have warned that Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs and any consequent trade war could do significant damage to the UK economy, pushing up inflation and interest rates.

    Officials at the Department for Business and Trade are now understood to be commissioning advice and forecasts on a range of economic scenarios that could emerge under a Trump presidency.

    This includes possible retaliatory action and counter measures, including the possible imposition of counter sanctions on US exports to Britain.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/09/downing-street-war-gaming-responses-trump-trade-tariffs/
    Imposing extra taxes on travel to the USA would be better.

    Tariffs on imports might hit business and the poor, more expensive Florida holidays will not.
    Hitting business and the poor is kinda where we're at though? Ideally both.
    I'm not bothered about hitting US businesses and poor.

    Its the UK ones I'm concerned about.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,807
    GIN1138 said:

    It's hard to imagine HMQ calling anyone an "idiot" much less her Prime Minister.

    Doesn't ring true?

    It was hard to imagine an idiot becoming PM but that glass ceiling has been well and truly shattered.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,764
    Sean_F said:

    Where to the pro free speech people stand on this?

    Celtic fans sing pro-IRA songs as Remembrance Sunday tribute scrapped after nine seconds

    Suspected Green Brigade members wave Irish and Palestinian flags in an act of defiance against Britain’s war dead


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/11/10/celtic-fans-remembrance-sunday-tribute-pro-ira-palestine/

    Let the scum show themselves up for what they are.
    This is despicable. But that doesn't mean it should be illegal. Lots of things fall into that gap.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,393

    Opportunity to again note that John Major’s dad was born in 1879.

    https://x.com/TomBFlanagan/status/1855593523375915032

    My Dad was born before Singapore fell to the Japanese.

    A lot happens in a lifetime.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,393

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    CatMan said:

    Got brexit done though didn't he ? Sometimes you just need to do something brave and different

    Brave, different, unconstitutional in hiding the AG's advice from the Cabinet, and unlawful.
    Indeed, it's a violation of the ministerial code, it was designed to ensure we didn't get a repeat of the Iraq war legal advice.
    yeah maybe not upsetting the status quo is the important thing but then Saddam Hussein may still be in power (or Uday ) and Brexit still not done ( ie ignoring the largest turnout vote in many a year for Brexit)
    One of the main obstacles to Brexit getting done during May's premiership was Boris Johnson.
    Otoh, Johnson's comprehensive Brexit trade deal with the US will protect us from Trump's tarriffs.

    Right?
    It looks increasingly likely that Trump and Farage are laying a trap for Sir Keir. The UK will be offered exemptions from the tariffs only if we concede to various unacceptable demands - essentially that Farage will become Trump's viceroy of Britain with Sir Keir as little more than his puppet. When Sir Keir, rightly, refuses the economy will tank and Reform will win the next election anyway. That'll be the plan. And who's going to stop it?
    As I posted last thread Starmer's government is already wargaming sanctions on US imports in response to tariffs imposed by Trump's administration.Though China, the EU and Brazil will be doing the same.

    The Tories and Farage will want him to push a deal with the US but it seems Starmer will ignore them and take a gamble that with the EU and China alongside him he can resist Maga America First.

    Of course the next UK general election will not be until the final year of Trump's administration in 2028 in which case the Democrats might be back in charge of Congress after the 2026 midterms or if 5 years and a full term maybe even after a Democrat has returned to the White House too
    These things might have been easier to negotiate if Lammy could keep his gob shut about personal opinions about Trump and 100 labour mps did not go to the US to try and interfere in a foreign election
    100 staff not MPs!!!!

    And they went as volunteers. That happens all the time.
    they did not back the winning side though and that is to the detriment of the UK - idiots for doing it in the first place
    At the moment I suspect Trump would more likely do a trade deal with Modi's India or Netanyahu's Israel or Milei's Argentina before Starmer's UK
    No I don't think so, the Trump team would very much like to cement Brexit in the UK and a favourable trade deal does that as then rejoining the EU has a very high price attached as we would lose the US trade deal. Starmer doesn't enter into the equation IMO, the US under Trump would very much like to drive a wedge between the UK and EU regardless of who the PM is, it is a very high risk double edged sword because there's potential for a really good trade deal to be done but it's going to be like trying to ride a tiger with Trump in charge and a US/UK trade deal also has great potential to piss off the EU and could make any rapprochement less likely.

    In pure economic terms a US trade deal should be out priority as it would exempt us from tariffs and allow for our producers to export to a huge market that's bigger than the EU with favourable terms and where our national reputation is really high so receptiveness to UK exports is higher than in lots of EU countries.
    I disagree entirely. We neither need nor should want a trade deal with the US beyond what we already have - which curenlty means a substantial trade surplus with the US. We know from experience (both our own and the experience of others) that a trade deal with the US is a poisoned challice and we should waste no time nor effort in pursuing one.
    Our trade surplus comes from services exports to the US so I don't see how anything changes there. If anything we could do even better if there was equivalence in regulations agreed between both sides for data, tech, finance, AI etc... as we'd remove a big barrier for services exports and more US companies would be able to utilise the lower salary structure of the UK to hire loads of £60-150k roles.

    On goods I'm not sure it will make a huge amount of difference, the public isn't really ready to accept US food. In the margins I think some premium US imports could do well but people who want parmesan will still buy Italian parmesan, people who want to make bread are still going to get the £1.20 1.5KG bread flour made from UK grain and it's not as though US agriculture is very competitive now, as we've all been discussing food prices are very high in the US so the structural advantage that US agriculture had last time this was being discussed has all but gone.
    It will be exactly like it has been for Mexico and Canada. All disputes will be decided by a US court which will always side with the US. Stuff we don't agree with? Tough shit. Under an FTA with the US we will be forced to conform to what US companies want.

    The venerable Smithson Junior has written a fair bit on this and we would be as well to listen to him.
    This is what's decisive for me, and we have the US-UK extradition treaty to show precisely how it works.

    I don't have a problem with people choosing to buy crap US food, as well as the good stuff; I do with heavily stacking the deck.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409
    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Where to the pro free speech people stand on this?

    Celtic fans sing pro-IRA songs as Remembrance Sunday tribute scrapped after nine seconds

    Suspected Green Brigade members wave Irish and Palestinian flags in an act of defiance against Britain’s war dead


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/11/10/celtic-fans-remembrance-sunday-tribute-pro-ira-palestine/

    Let the scum show themselves up for what they are.
    This is despicable. But that doesn't mean it should be illegal. Lots of things fall into that gap.
    Yup. I would absolutely fight for their right to continue be utterly obnoxious turds if that is their wish. Free speech isn't just for speech you like.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,242
    edited November 10

    My friend thinks Poppy Day is the epitome of virtue signalling.

    Is he right?


    James Ball

    @jamesrbuk

    Fantastic final word on the poppy debate from the Guardian’s letter page. But as a warning it does contain a spoiler for a 103-year-old novel.

    "In The Unpleasantness At The Bellona Club by Dorothy L. Sayers, Lord Peter Whimsey is able to date the murder of Gen Fentiman to 10 November and not, as first thought, Armistice Day, as the general was not wearing a poppy, which, of course, he would have been on 11 November. If, in 1921, a patriotic soldier who fought in the Great War wore his poppy on, and only on, 11 November, perhaps our public figures could do the same a hundred years later without being bullied and shamed.

    Rosemary Chamberlin
    Bristol"

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1855219642408607833
    Also worth recalling that back in Lord Peter's day the government decided to abandon the Two-Minute Silence on Armistice Day in favour of a national remembrance event on the closest Sunday instead. This arrangement persisted until quite recently when the British Legion decided they needed some extra publicity and campaigned for the additional virtue signalling to be restored, which it duly was because politicians are too craven to resist when the flags are waving.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,393
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/09/social-media-traditional-news-elections-00188548

    The exit polls did not ask about media consumption, so we need to look for indirect clues. NBC asked the question in April when President Joe Biden was still in the race, and the results were dramatic. Among people who got their news from “newspapers,” Biden was winning 70-21. Among people who got their news from “YouTube/Google,” Trump led 55-39.

    Before he dropped our, Biden’s internal polling was showing Trump winning 400 EVs.
    Which is a good measure of his hubris in not doing so before the primaries.

    Arguably, his biggest error of judgment.
    Biden did actually beat Trump in 2020 and if he did not have dementia may well have done again, though costs of living still gave Trump the edge.

    Harris was simply too woke and elitist coastal liberal for middle America. As I posted earlier this election was the first election the Democratic presidential candidate won most voters earning over $100,000 a year ever but also the first election the Republican candidate won most voters earning $30,000-$50,000 since Reagan and Bush 1988 and there are more of the latter than the former once you add those earning $50k to $100k Trump also won
    Harris was a crap candidate.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    Having thought about possible UK ambassadors to Don Don I conclude that Millipede major, Mandelbrot and Dalek woman do not meet a vital criteria.

    They do not play golf.

    To deal with Trump you have to look strong at a level he understands.

    Trump likes to play golf and cheats.

    We need a golfer and someone willing to cheat.

    A chance of redemption for Prince Andrew perhaps ?

    Or how about this new Labour MP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Leishman

    Leishman is a member of the Professional Golfers' Association, and has received a Bachelor of Arts in golf management from Abertay University. He has coached at numerous Scottish golf clubs, including Alloa Golf Club where he owned a shop prior to his election to Parliament.

    Likewise is there anyone in the cabinet who plays golf ?

    McFadden, Healey, Reynolds might be our best hopes.

    If not perhaps its time for Lord Kinabalu of PB.

    Surely better to send someone who's a bit crap at golf, so Trump wins?
  • HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/09/social-media-traditional-news-elections-00188548

    The exit polls did not ask about media consumption, so we need to look for indirect clues. NBC asked the question in April when President Joe Biden was still in the race, and the results were dramatic. Among people who got their news from “newspapers,” Biden was winning 70-21. Among people who got their news from “YouTube/Google,” Trump led 55-39.

    Before he dropped our, Biden’s internal polling was showing Trump winning 400 EVs.
    Which is a good measure of his hubris in not doing so before the primaries.

    Arguably, his biggest error of judgment.
    Biden did actually beat Trump in 2020 and if he did not have dementia may well have done again, though costs of living still gave Trump the edge.

    Harris was simply too woke and elitist coastal liberal for middle America. As I posted earlier this election was the first election the Democratic presidential candidate won most voters earning over $100,000 a year ever but also the first election the Republican candidate won most voters earning $30,000-$50,000 since Reagan and Bush 1988 and there are more of the latter than the former once you add those earning $50k to $100k Trump also won
    Harris was a crap candidate.
    Hillary 2016 = 232 Electoral Votes
    Kamala 2024 = 226 Electoral Votes

    :innocent:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,393
    Sean_F said:

    Where to the pro free speech people stand on this?

    Celtic fans sing pro-IRA songs as Remembrance Sunday tribute scrapped after nine seconds

    Suspected Green Brigade members wave Irish and Palestinian flags in an act of defiance against Britain’s war dead


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/11/10/celtic-fans-remembrance-sunday-tribute-pro-ira-palestine/

    Let the scum show themselves up for what they are.
    Celtic and Rangers are the real life example of Twitter in human form.

    It's all about being as offensive as possible to cause maximum provocation to the other.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,242
    Foxy said:

    Having thought about possible UK ambassadors to Don Don I conclude that Millipede major, Mandelbrot and Dalek woman do not meet a vital criteria.

    They do not play golf.

    To deal with Trump you have to look strong at a level he understands.

    Trump likes to play golf and cheats.

    We need a golfer and someone willing to cheat.

    A chance of redemption for Prince Andrew perhaps ?

    Or how about this new Labour MP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Leishman

    Leishman is a member of the Professional Golfers' Association, and has received a Bachelor of Arts in golf management from Abertay University. He has coached at numerous Scottish golf clubs, including Alloa Golf Club where he owned a shop prior to his election to Parliament.

    Likewise is there anyone in the cabinet who plays golf ?

    McFadden, Healey, Reynolds might be our best hopes.

    If not perhaps its time for Lord Kinabalu of PB.

    Surely better to send someone who's a bit crap at golf, so Trump wins?
    Are you suggesting his putative lordship wouldn't qualify on those grounds?
  • Sean_F said:

    Where to the pro free speech people stand on this?

    Celtic fans sing pro-IRA songs as Remembrance Sunday tribute scrapped after nine seconds

    Suspected Green Brigade members wave Irish and Palestinian flags in an act of defiance against Britain’s war dead


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/11/10/celtic-fans-remembrance-sunday-tribute-pro-ira-palestine/

    Let the scum show themselves up for what they are.
    Celtic and Rangers are the real life example of Twitter in human form.

    It's all about being as offensive as possible to cause maximum provocation to the other.
    Alien v. Predator.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,931

    Foxy said:

    Having thought about possible UK ambassadors to Don Don I conclude that Millipede major, Mandelbrot and Dalek woman do not meet a vital criteria.

    They do not play golf.

    To deal with Trump you have to look strong at a level he understands.

    Trump likes to play golf and cheats.

    We need a golfer and someone willing to cheat.

    A chance of redemption for Prince Andrew perhaps ?

    Or how about this new Labour MP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Leishman

    Leishman is a member of the Professional Golfers' Association, and has received a Bachelor of Arts in golf management from Abertay University. He has coached at numerous Scottish golf clubs, including Alloa Golf Club where he owned a shop prior to his election to Parliament.

    Likewise is there anyone in the cabinet who plays golf ?

    McFadden, Healey, Reynolds might be our best hopes.

    If not perhaps its time for Lord Kinabalu of PB.

    Surely better to send someone who's a bit crap at golf, so Trump wins?
    Are you suggesting his putative lordship wouldn't qualify on those grounds?
    Surely Sean Connery is the right man for this Odd Job?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,807
    Foxy said:

    Having thought about possible UK ambassadors to Don Don I conclude that Millipede major, Mandelbrot and Dalek woman do not meet a vital criteria.

    They do not play golf.

    To deal with Trump you have to look strong at a level he understands.

    Trump likes to play golf and cheats.

    We need a golfer and someone willing to cheat.

    A chance of redemption for Prince Andrew perhaps ?

    Or how about this new Labour MP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Leishman

    Leishman is a member of the Professional Golfers' Association, and has received a Bachelor of Arts in golf management from Abertay University. He has coached at numerous Scottish golf clubs, including Alloa Golf Club where he owned a shop prior to his election to Parliament.

    Likewise is there anyone in the cabinet who plays golf ?

    McFadden, Healey, Reynolds might be our best hopes.

    If not perhaps its time for Lord Kinabalu of PB.

    Surely better to send someone who's a bit crap at golf, so Trump wins?
    Trump gets on well with Kim Jong-Un whose dad shot 38 under par on a 7700 yard golf course, with 11 holes in one in his very first round of golf.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,390

    Foxy said:

    Having thought about possible UK ambassadors to Don Don I conclude that Millipede major, Mandelbrot and Dalek woman do not meet a vital criteria.

    They do not play golf.

    To deal with Trump you have to look strong at a level he understands.

    Trump likes to play golf and cheats.

    We need a golfer and someone willing to cheat.

    A chance of redemption for Prince Andrew perhaps ?

    Or how about this new Labour MP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Leishman

    Leishman is a member of the Professional Golfers' Association, and has received a Bachelor of Arts in golf management from Abertay University. He has coached at numerous Scottish golf clubs, including Alloa Golf Club where he owned a shop prior to his election to Parliament.

    Likewise is there anyone in the cabinet who plays golf ?

    McFadden, Healey, Reynolds might be our best hopes.

    If not perhaps its time for Lord Kinabalu of PB.

    Surely better to send someone who's a bit crap at golf, so Trump wins?
    Trump gets on well with Kim Jong-Un whose dad shot 38 under par on a 7700 yard golf course, with 11 holes in one in his very first round of golf.
    IIRC did he not retire from the game at that point to give the others a chance? Very sporting.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,051
    As I've pointed out before, the YouTuber MonsieurZ is one of the more accessible right-wing Americans. Here is his newest video about his predictions for the coming decades.

    5 Predictions On The Future Of America https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iI0Na5typTs 26mins
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,538
    London hadn't had any homicides for more than 2 weeks before today.

    https://www.murdermap.co.uk/victims/murders-london-2024-total-how-many/
  • Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Where to the pro free speech people stand on this?

    Celtic fans sing pro-IRA songs as Remembrance Sunday tribute scrapped after nine seconds

    Suspected Green Brigade members wave Irish and Palestinian flags in an act of defiance against Britain’s war dead


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/11/10/celtic-fans-remembrance-sunday-tribute-pro-ira-palestine/

    Let the scum show themselves up for what they are.
    This is despicable. But that doesn't mean it should be illegal. Lots of things fall into that gap.
    Even the Celtic fans in my company some of whom sit close to the Green Brigade are not happy with their actions. The SNP pro Palestine mind set is not widely supported. Expect a backlash from the unionists.

    Was out in Glasgow Friday night and was amazed by how many English there are about. Glasgow still has very few immigrants and is mostly peaceful due to the strong local gang culture. You can walk the streets without worrying about your phone or watch.





  • kyf_100 said:

    Foxy said:

    Having thought about possible UK ambassadors to Don Don I conclude that Millipede major, Mandelbrot and Dalek woman do not meet a vital criteria.

    They do not play golf.

    To deal with Trump you have to look strong at a level he understands.

    Trump likes to play golf and cheats.

    We need a golfer and someone willing to cheat.

    A chance of redemption for Prince Andrew perhaps ?

    Or how about this new Labour MP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Leishman

    Leishman is a member of the Professional Golfers' Association, and has received a Bachelor of Arts in golf management from Abertay University. He has coached at numerous Scottish golf clubs, including Alloa Golf Club where he owned a shop prior to his election to Parliament.

    Likewise is there anyone in the cabinet who plays golf ?

    McFadden, Healey, Reynolds might be our best hopes.

    If not perhaps its time for Lord Kinabalu of PB.

    Surely better to send someone who's a bit crap at golf, so Trump wins?
    Are you suggesting his putative lordship wouldn't qualify on those grounds?
    Surely Sean Connery is the right man for this Odd Job?
    He died 4 years ago?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,538
    Matt Goodwin in a good mood.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/why-were-one-of-the-biggest-substacks

    "Hurrah! We’ve just climbed to Number 4 in the Substack World Politics leaderboard which means we’re probably the most read Substack in the UK and among the most read in the World.

    While we now have 61,000 readers, many more people are reading us each month, with around 1-2 million clicks every month.

    But why? What explains our success?

    I think the answer has a lot to do with the remarkable and historic events this week which much of the legacy media, the elite class, and the established Groupthink, once again, largely failed to see coming."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,176

    Scott_xP said:
    Musk will share Dominic Cummings' fate if he keeps overshadowing the boss.
    It does seem quite possible that the bromance between Trump and Musk will be short-lived, given the volatility of the two characters. Affairs that are very passionate to start with often end in tears.
    Interestingly, no one has mentioned their previous falling out.
    Remind me...

    (When the fall-out happens, who wins? Trump is in the big chair, but Vance and co will presumably be happy to 25th Amendment him if he causes too much trouble.)
    https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/1/15726292/elon-musk-trump-advisory-council-paris-climate-decision
  • Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Where to the pro free speech people stand on this?

    Celtic fans sing pro-IRA songs as Remembrance Sunday tribute scrapped after nine seconds

    Suspected Green Brigade members wave Irish and Palestinian flags in an act of defiance against Britain’s war dead


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/11/10/celtic-fans-remembrance-sunday-tribute-pro-ira-palestine/

    Let the scum show themselves up for what they are.
    This is despicable. But that doesn't mean it should be illegal. Lots of things fall into that gap.
    Even the Celtic fans in my company some of whom sit close to the Green Brigade are not happy with their actions. The SNP pro Palestine mind set is not widely supported. Expect a backlash from the unionists.

    Was out in Glasgow Friday night and was amazed by how many English there are about. Glasgow still has very few immigrants and is mostly peaceful due to the strong local gang culture. You can walk the streets without worrying about your phone or watch.





    There is no negotiated settlement possible. Jihad is the only answer
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350

    My friend thinks Poppy Day is the epitome of virtue signalling.

    Is he right?


    James Ball

    @jamesrbuk

    Fantastic final word on the poppy debate from the Guardian’s letter page. But as a warning it does contain a spoiler for a 103-year-old novel.

    "In The Unpleasantness At The Bellona Club by Dorothy L. Sayers, Lord Peter Whimsey is able to date the murder of Gen Fentiman to 10 November and not, as first thought, Armistice Day, as the general was not wearing a poppy, which, of course, he would have been on 11 November. If, in 1921, a patriotic soldier who fought in the Great War wore his poppy on, and only on, 11 November, perhaps our public figures could do the same a hundred years later without being bullied and shamed.

    Rosemary Chamberlin
    Bristol"

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1855219642408607833
    Also worth recalling that back in Lord Peter's day the government decided to abandon the Two-Minute Silence on Armistice Day in favour of a national remembrance event on the closest Sunday instead. This arrangement persisted until quite recently when the British Legion decided they needed some extra publicity and campaigned for the additional virtue signalling to be restored, which it duly was because politicians are too craven to resist when the flags are waving.
    It was temporarily changed in 1939 and then confirmed in its change in 1946.

    The last Wimsey novel appeared in 1936 and the last story of any sort was written in 1943. So that’s stretching it a bit.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,931

    kyf_100 said:

    Foxy said:

    Having thought about possible UK ambassadors to Don Don I conclude that Millipede major, Mandelbrot and Dalek woman do not meet a vital criteria.

    They do not play golf.

    To deal with Trump you have to look strong at a level he understands.

    Trump likes to play golf and cheats.

    We need a golfer and someone willing to cheat.

    A chance of redemption for Prince Andrew perhaps ?

    Or how about this new Labour MP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Leishman

    Leishman is a member of the Professional Golfers' Association, and has received a Bachelor of Arts in golf management from Abertay University. He has coached at numerous Scottish golf clubs, including Alloa Golf Club where he owned a shop prior to his election to Parliament.

    Likewise is there anyone in the cabinet who plays golf ?

    McFadden, Healey, Reynolds might be our best hopes.

    If not perhaps its time for Lord Kinabalu of PB.

    Surely better to send someone who's a bit crap at golf, so Trump wins?
    Are you suggesting his putative lordship wouldn't qualify on those grounds?
    Surely Sean Connery is the right man for this Odd Job?
    He died 4 years ago?
    But he knew how to deal with fat old villains with blonde hair.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTBvu-fTTIk
  • Andy_JS said:

    Matt Goodwin in a good mood.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/why-were-one-of-the-biggest-substacks

    "Hurrah! We’ve just climbed to Number 4 in the Substack World Politics leaderboard which means we’re probably the most read Substack in the UK and among the most read in the World.

    While we now have 61,000 readers, many more people are reading us each month, with around 1-2 million clicks every month.

    But why? What explains our success?

    I think the answer has a lot to do with the remarkable and historic events this week which much of the legacy media, the elite class, and the established Groupthink, once again, largely failed to see coming."

    I don't look at his substack, but I presume all his musings are everything is woke, too much uncontrolled immigration...rinse and repeat.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,566
    Andy_JS said:

    Matt Goodwin in a good mood.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/why-were-one-of-the-biggest-substacks

    "Hurrah! We’ve just climbed to Number 4 in the Substack World Politics leaderboard which means we’re probably the most read Substack in the UK and among the most read in the World.

    While we now have 61,000 readers, many more people are reading us each month, with around 1-2 million clicks every month.

    But why? What explains our success?

    I think the answer has a lot to do with the remarkable and historic events this week which much of the legacy media, the elite class, and the established Groupthink, once again, largely failed to see coming."

    "Matt Goodwin’s Substack goes to 61,400 subscribers from 170 countries and thousands of paying supporters who support our work."

    Depending on how cheeky his definition of "thousands" is, that's at least £6000 or at least £12000 per month in paying readers. Explains why writers love substack so much.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,390
    Has mention of Goodwin killed the thread?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043

    Been busy all day so dont know if this has been posted.

    https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6v3edv3p9o

    No idea if terrorism or not, but recent events spring to mind. Why not just say no idea of motive?

    A man, believed to be in his 60s, was arrested at the scene and then taken into custody.

    It is understood the incident was mental-health related.

    Police confirmed it was not being treated as terrorism and they were not looking for anyone else.

    https://news.sky.com/story/man-killed-after-three-people-stabbed-at-east-street-market-in-south-london-13251053
    You may have missed my point - Southport was not thought to be terror related until it was (and kept from the public beyond that point too).
    There are about 3800 stabbings in the UK per year, going on NHS data. A tiny proportion are associated with terrorism: less than half a percent. (There were, I believe, 11 terrorism stabbings in 2020, 1 in 2021, 0 in 2022, and 2 in 2023. In 2024, there has been one by an extreme racist and there were the 13 in the one incident in Southport, although Rudakubana's motives and whether they constituted terrorism are unclear.)

    I'm more worried about the >99.5% of non-terrorism related stabbings. I am unclear why the journalist or the reader should rush to a discussion of terrorism in an article of this nature.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,242
    ydoethur said:

    My friend thinks Poppy Day is the epitome of virtue signalling.

    Is he right?


    James Ball

    @jamesrbuk

    Fantastic final word on the poppy debate from the Guardian’s letter page. But as a warning it does contain a spoiler for a 103-year-old novel.

    "In The Unpleasantness At The Bellona Club by Dorothy L. Sayers, Lord Peter Whimsey is able to date the murder of Gen Fentiman to 10 November and not, as first thought, Armistice Day, as the general was not wearing a poppy, which, of course, he would have been on 11 November. If, in 1921, a patriotic soldier who fought in the Great War wore his poppy on, and only on, 11 November, perhaps our public figures could do the same a hundred years later without being bullied and shamed.

    Rosemary Chamberlin
    Bristol"

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1855219642408607833
    Also worth recalling that back in Lord Peter's day the government decided to abandon the Two-Minute Silence on Armistice Day in favour of a national remembrance event on the closest Sunday instead. This arrangement persisted until quite recently when the British Legion decided they needed some extra publicity and campaigned for the additional virtue signalling to be restored, which it duly was because politicians are too craven to resist when the flags are waving.
    It was temporarily changed in 1939 and then confirmed in its change in 1946.

    The last Wimsey novel appeared in 1936 and the last story of any sort was written in 1943. So that’s stretching it a bit.
    With the greatest respect I think you've rather missed the point.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Andy_JS said:

    Matt Goodwin in a good mood.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/why-were-one-of-the-biggest-substacks

    "Hurrah! We’ve just climbed to Number 4 in the Substack World Politics leaderboard which means we’re probably the most read Substack in the UK and among the most read in the World.

    While we now have 61,000 readers, many more people are reading us each month, with around 1-2 million clicks every month.

    But why? What explains our success?

    I think the answer has a lot to do with the remarkable and historic events this week which much of the legacy media, the elite class, and the established Groupthink, once again, largely failed to see coming."

    Goodwin, for all the criticisms he gets including from me, is interesting. And very generally he has been academically well ahead of the curve in considering the importance of national populism as a recent growth industry.

    What of the future? He has placed himself in a truly intriguing position. He is, in some sense: academic, journalist, commentator, pundit, polemicist, supporter, influencer and (I think) potential leader of the UK branch of a movement now proved beyond doubt (on 5th November) to be profoundly significant.

    The gulf between the thoughtful usefulness of his more academic output and the one sided polemicism he shows elsewhere is considerable.

    I wonder what his ambitions are?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    Andy_JS said:

    Matt Goodwin in a good mood.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/why-were-one-of-the-biggest-substacks

    "Hurrah! We’ve just climbed to Number 4 in the Substack World Politics leaderboard which means we’re probably the most read Substack in the UK and among the most read in the World.

    While we now have 61,000 readers, many more people are reading us each month, with around 1-2 million clicks every month.

    But why? What explains our success?

    I think the answer has a lot to do with the remarkable and historic events this week which much of the legacy media, the elite class, and the established Groupthink, once again, largely failed to see coming."

    He presumably means the US Presidential election when he talks of "events". The legacy media, elite class and "established Groupthink" were all that it could go either way. Ergo, the claim they "largely failed to see [it] coming" is nonsense.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,390

    Been busy all day so dont know if this has been posted.

    https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6v3edv3p9o

    No idea if terrorism or not, but recent events spring to mind. Why not just say no idea of motive?

    A man, believed to be in his 60s, was arrested at the scene and then taken into custody.

    It is understood the incident was mental-health related.

    Police confirmed it was not being treated as terrorism and they were not looking for anyone else.

    https://news.sky.com/story/man-killed-after-three-people-stabbed-at-east-street-market-in-south-london-13251053
    You may have missed my point - Southport was not thought to be terror related until it was (and kept from the public beyond that point too).
    There are about 3800 stabbings in the UK per year, going on NHS data. A tiny proportion are associated with terrorism: less than half a percent. (There were, I believe, 11 terrorism stabbings in 2020, 1 in 2021, 0 in 2022, and 2 in 2023. In 2024, there has been one by an extreme racist and there were the 13 in the one incident in Southport, although Rudakubana's motives and whether they constituted terrorism are unclear.)

    I'm more worried about the >99.5% of non-terrorism related stabbings. I am unclear why the journalist or the reader should rush to a discussion of terrorism in an article of this nature.
    How many are multiple stabbings though? I agree that most, by an overwhelming margin, are not terror and I am not saying this is, but multiple stabbings are rarer and more likely to be terrorism. I’m arguing for the police not putting out the ‘not treated as terrorism’ right at the start, rather that they should keep an open mind, and say so.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043

    Been busy all day so dont know if this has been posted.

    https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6v3edv3p9o

    No idea if terrorism or not, but recent events spring to mind. Why not just say no idea of motive?

    A man, believed to be in his 60s, was arrested at the scene and then taken into custody.

    It is understood the incident was mental-health related.

    Police confirmed it was not being treated as terrorism and they were not looking for anyone else.

    https://news.sky.com/story/man-killed-after-three-people-stabbed-at-east-street-market-in-south-london-13251053
    You may have missed my point - Southport was not thought to be terror related until it was (and kept from the public beyond that point too).
    There are about 3800 stabbings in the UK per year, going on NHS data. A tiny proportion are associated with terrorism: less than half a percent. (There were, I believe, 11 terrorism stabbings in 2020, 1 in 2021, 0 in 2022, and 2 in 2023. In 2024, there has been one by an extreme racist and there were the 13 in the one incident in Southport, although Rudakubana's motives and whether they constituted terrorism are unclear.)

    I'm more worried about the >99.5% of non-terrorism related stabbings. I am unclear why the journalist or the reader should rush to a discussion of terrorism in an article of this nature.
    How many are multiple stabbings though? I agree that most, by an overwhelming margin, are not terror and I am not saying this is, but multiple stabbings are rarer and more likely to be terrorism. I’m arguing for the police not putting out the ‘not treated as terrorism’ right at the start, rather that they should keep an open mind, and say so.
    If they say nothing, they get criticised. If they say they're not treating something as terrorism when they're not, they get criticised. If they say they are treating something as terrorism, and then it's not, they get criticised. If new evidence comes to light, they get criticised. Maybe we should just let the police get on with their job?

    I mean, if you want to criticise the police, there're plenty of good reasons to criticise the police!
  • Foxy said:

    Having thought about possible UK ambassadors to Don Don I conclude that Millipede major, Mandelbrot and Dalek woman do not meet a vital criteria.

    They do not play golf.

    To deal with Trump you have to look strong at a level he understands.

    Trump likes to play golf and cheats.

    We need a golfer and someone willing to cheat.

    A chance of redemption for Prince Andrew perhaps ?

    Or how about this new Labour MP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Leishman

    Leishman is a member of the Professional Golfers' Association, and has received a Bachelor of Arts in golf management from Abertay University. He has coached at numerous Scottish golf clubs, including Alloa Golf Club where he owned a shop prior to his election to Parliament.

    Likewise is there anyone in the cabinet who plays golf ?

    McFadden, Healey, Reynolds might be our best hopes.

    If not perhaps its time for Lord Kinabalu of PB.

    Surely better to send someone who's a bit crap at golf, so Trump wins?
    No, Trump respects strength.

    Beat Trump at golf but praise his shots and give the caddy a good beating.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    DavidL said:

    More for the previous thread than this one but this is one of the more perceptive pieces I have read in several months: https://apple.news/AtsqEVDkNSXWPEkKePELYag

    And it’s from the Guardian!

    In my view it explains why the Democrats lost and why Labour only got 33% of the vote against one of the least popular governments in history.

    The Democrats and Labour have the same problem. They delude themselves that they care for the have nots but they only do so within the context of their own privilege and priorities. Which the have nots do not give a damn about.

    All these analysis pieces are just people trotting out the same criticisms they had before the election result. Those on the right say the Dems were too left-wing or too woke. Those on the left say the Dems were too right-wing or not woke enough. Very few of them are actual psephological analyses based on robust evidence. They didn't pay enough attention to the young or to the old; to the working class or the middle class; to the urban, the suburban or the rural; etc. etc. etc.

    The best thing to do is to ignore all supposed analyses in the first 3 months after an election defeat.
  • Have they bothered counting any votes today or is that too much to ask ?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,237

    Astonishing statistic from the Remembrance coverage. If the dead being remembered were to march past the Cenotaph three abreast, the back of the column would be...

    ...in Edinburgh.

    At my school, they used to read out all the ex-pupils who died in wars. The reading of WWI, its just went on and on and on and on...in many cases, what seemed like all male members of families.
    One of my cousins collected the obituaries of all the family members who were killed in WWI into a short pamphlet. Very sad reading
  • Astonishing statistic from the Remembrance coverage. If the dead being remembered were to march past the Cenotaph three abreast, the back of the column would be...

    ...in Edinburgh.

    At my school, they used to read out all the ex-pupils who died in wars. The reading of WWI, its just went on and on and on and on...in many cases, what seemed like all male members of families.
    One of my cousins collected the obituaries of all the family members who were killed in WWI into a short pamphlet. Very sad reading
    It was very powerful experience. The last post followed by 100s of names being read out.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    DavidL said:

    More for the previous thread than this one but this is one of the more perceptive pieces I have read in several months: https://apple.news/AtsqEVDkNSXWPEkKePELYag

    And it’s from the Guardian!

    In my view it explains why the Democrats lost and why Labour only got 33% of the vote against one of the least popular governments in history.

    The Democrats and Labour have the same problem. They delude themselves that they care for the have nots but they only do so within the context of their own privilege and priorities. Which the have nots do not give a damn about.

    The UK and USA centre and centre left are in complete meltdown, and all running to the same story - we failed to spot the obvious and we are useless self absorbed idiots who actually hate and ignore the interests of the poor and all those we claim to support.

    You would need a heart of stone.....

    The is one thing more though. Because of our system Labour's abject failure (coming first) led to their 3 billion majority. The Democrat's identical abject failure (by margin of error type shortfall of votes) will probably lead to the end of civilization as we know it. Funny old world.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,794

    DavidL said:

    More for the previous thread than this one but this is one of the more perceptive pieces I have read in several months: https://apple.news/AtsqEVDkNSXWPEkKePELYag

    And it’s from the Guardian!

    In my view it explains why the Democrats lost and why Labour only got 33% of the vote against one of the least popular governments in history.

    The Democrats and Labour have the same problem. They delude themselves that they care for the have nots but they only do so within the context of their own privilege and priorities. Which the have nots do not give a damn about.

    All these analysis pieces are just people trotting out the same criticisms they had before the election result. Those on the right say the Dems were too left-wing or too woke. Those on the left say the Dems were too right-wing or not woke enough. Very few of them are actual psephological analyses based on robust evidence. They didn't pay enough attention to the young or to the old; to the working class or the middle class; to the urban, the suburban or the rural; etc. etc. etc.

    The best thing to do is to ignore all supposed analyses in the first 3 months after an election defeat.
    His analysis reminds me strongly of Norman MacCaig’s brilliant poem Assisi the final verse of which is:
    A rush of tourists, clucking contentedly,
    fluttered after him as he scattered
    the grain of the Word. It was they who had passed
    the ruined temple outside, whose eyes
    wept pus, whose back was higher
    than his head, whose lopsided mouth
    said Grazie in a voice as sweet
    as a child’s when she speaks to her mother
    or a bird’s when it spoke
    to St Francis.

    It is the same flaw as the article so eloquently describes.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826

    Been busy all day so dont know if this has been posted.

    https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6v3edv3p9o

    No idea if terrorism or not, but recent events spring to mind. Why not just say no idea of motive?

    A man, believed to be in his 60s, was arrested at the scene and then taken into custody.

    It is understood the incident was mental-health related.

    Police confirmed it was not being treated as terrorism and they were not looking for anyone else.

    https://news.sky.com/story/man-killed-after-three-people-stabbed-at-east-street-market-in-south-london-13251053
    You may have missed my point - Southport was not thought to be terror related until it was (and kept from the public beyond that point too).
    There are about 3800 stabbings in the UK per year, going on NHS data. A tiny proportion are associated with terrorism: less than half a percent. (There were, I believe, 11 terrorism stabbings in 2020, 1 in 2021, 0 in 2022, and 2 in 2023. In 2024, there has been one by an extreme racist and there were the 13 in the one incident in Southport, although Rudakubana's motives and whether they constituted terrorism are unclear.)

    I'm more worried about the >99.5% of non-terrorism related stabbings. I am unclear why the journalist or the reader should rush to a discussion of terrorism in an article of this nature.
    It's about the honesty of the authorities. Lying to the public has big consequences. Of course we cannot say more at this stage.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Yeah, but the prorogation was legal and the Miller 2 ruling was a disgrace - the biggest example of a court starting with its conclusion and propping it up with flimsy reasoning since Roe v Wade.

    And, of course, it massively backfired on Spider Hale.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    Where to the pro free speech people stand on this?

    Celtic fans sing pro-IRA songs as Remembrance Sunday tribute scrapped after nine seconds

    Suspected Green Brigade members wave Irish and Palestinian flags in an act of defiance against Britain’s war dead


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/11/10/celtic-fans-remembrance-sunday-tribute-pro-ira-palestine/

    Well done,the Green Brigade.
    Fuck Remembrance Day. Fuck poppy fascism. Fuck the UK thinking it is not a nation of warmongering scumbags.
    PS. Like the new avatar, @TSE.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    The constitutional meddling was the imbecilic Fixed-term Parliament Act.

    To an extent, although it was obvious from day 1 to anyone paying attention that it was an effective nullity beyond the 2010-5 parliament - a government with a majority could always pass a one-line Bill, as indeed came to pass.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930
    Scott_xP said:

    Did Nigel Fucking Farage really fly back just to bitch about not being at the Cenotaph?

    Nigel Farage at the Cenotaph would have been an insult, given the number of Europeans that died, without whom the UK would have been on the losing side. On the other hand, Farage would have been an ideal Obersturmbannführer.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,051
    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Matt Goodwin in a good mood.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/why-were-one-of-the-biggest-substacks

    "Hurrah! We’ve just climbed to Number 4 in the Substack World Politics leaderboard which means we’re probably the most read Substack in the UK and among the most read in the World.

    While we now have 61,000 readers, many more people are reading us each month, with around 1-2 million clicks every month.

    But why? What explains our success?

    I think the answer has a lot to do with the remarkable and historic events this week which much of the legacy media, the elite class, and the established Groupthink, once again, largely failed to see coming."

    Goodwin, for all the criticisms he gets including from me, is interesting. And very generally he has been academically well ahead of the curve in considering the importance of national populism as a recent growth industry.

    What of the future? He has placed himself in a truly intriguing position. He is, in some sense: academic, journalist, commentator, pundit, polemicist, supporter, influencer and (I think) potential leader of the UK branch of a movement now proved beyond doubt (on 5th November) to be profoundly significant.

    The gulf between the thoughtful usefulness of his more academic output and the one sided polemicism he shows elsewhere is considerable.

    I wonder what his ambitions are?
    He will not rest until he rules the universe. He has a burn in his gut that one.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,630

    Been busy all day so dont know if this has been posted.

    https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6v3edv3p9o

    No idea if terrorism or not, but recent events spring to mind. Why not just say no idea of motive?

    A man, believed to be in his 60s, was arrested at the scene and then taken into custody.

    It is understood the incident was mental-health related.

    Police confirmed it was not being treated as terrorism and they were not looking for anyone else.

    https://news.sky.com/story/man-killed-after-three-people-stabbed-at-east-street-market-in-south-london-13251053
    You may have missed my point - Southport was not thought to be terror related until it was (and kept from the public beyond that point too).
    There are about 3800 stabbings in the UK per year, going on NHS data. A tiny proportion are associated with terrorism: less than half a percent. (There were, I believe, 11 terrorism stabbings in 2020, 1 in 2021, 0 in 2022, and 2 in 2023. In 2024, there has been one by an extreme racist and there were the 13 in the one incident in Southport, although Rudakubana's motives and whether they constituted terrorism are unclear.)

    I'm more worried about the >99.5% of non-terrorism related stabbings. I am unclear why the journalist or the reader should rush to a discussion of terrorism in an article of this nature.
    There was a recent fatal collision on Edinburgh's Cowgate between a bus and a pedestrian. The aftermath was almost unbelievably grisly.

    A very large proportion of Edinburgh Facebook/Twitter commentariat are absolutely convinced that this was a terrorist attack, hushed up "like Southport". What they don't appreciate is just what can happen when a vehicle hits a person - indeed, something very similar happened on Gorgie Road last year.
This discussion has been closed.