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Ayrshire hotelier Donald Trump becomes American president again – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,467

    For all of you bewildered as to why Trump won again and so comprehensively, perhaps I can crave your indulgence and repost the link to the article I wrote for PB on the Trump phenomena back in early 2021.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/01/09/this-is-not-about-trump-except-of-course-it-is/

    Nothing really has changed since Trump's first win in 2016. Indeed in no small part because of Trump and of course because of Biden as his successor, for millions of Amernican who see themselves as MIddle Class, things have only got worse.

    And the sad fact is that, just as in 2016 and 2020, there is no real prospect of a Trump presidency making it any better.

    As an aside, interstimg to see what has changed since then - Trump's relationship with Twitter being the most obvious.

    As I say they have abandoned democracy because of the price of eggs.
    That will always be the case. At the most extreme, starving, penniless people have little interest in democracy and this is just a milder version of that. It has ever been such since the birth iof the idea of democracy.

    Pythagoras may have been willing to die for his rather strange philosophical ideas but most people are not.
    Dunno, millions went to war against Hitler in 1940s.
  • Jonathan said:

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    It depends if we are stupid enough to retaliate, as the EU will.

    An advantage of Brexit is that we can choose our own path. We can choose not to do so.

    Let's see if Labour do the right thing or go for solidarity with Europe. I won't hold my breath, sadly.
    If free trade is truly superior, then this presents an opportunity for a tariff free bloc.
    No it does not since the bloc is insignificant and we have a deal with that bloc which does not entail us needing to be inside it and putting up tariffs on the rest of the world.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Not that it will do him much good, he needs to try and get more support from non US Nato allies in terms of aid now as Trump is certainly going to cut it for him
  • Trump pledged to use the military to deport, potentuakly, millions.

    That doesn't sound like something that will encourage the climate of fluffy unity he's mouthing this morning.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,826
    Presumably the main tips were how to lose ungraciously and get on the media endlessly thereafter.

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1854069448677675497?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • TimS said:

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    It depends if we are stupid enough to retaliate, as the EU will.

    An advantage of Brexit is that we can choose our own path. We can choose not to do so.

    Let's see if Labour do the right thing or go for solidarity with Europe. I won't hold my breath, sadly.
    Non-retaliation in trade war is like non-retaliation in real war, especially when dealing with someone like Trump. It'll just embolden him to go further just like every concession to Russia emboldens Putin.

    Trade retaliation is an art, and can be quite fun. The key is to make it as painful as possible for the other side while limiting the pain for your own side. Things your own population don't particularly need to buy, but which your opponent really needs to sell. Trump has already made a mistake in that direction, promising flat tariffs on everything. It means he hurts American consumers and component importers, rather than following the usual playbook of hiking duties on things like Scotch whisky, French couture or Italian leather goods.
    Not the same thing at all.

    Retaliation in a real war hurts your enemy.

    Retaliation in a tariff war hurts yourself.

    Tariffs hurt your own population more than the rest of the world.
  • "Potentially", that should be.
    Who knows where this will pan out.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,228

    This victory will mean an unprecedented redistribution of wealth from the poor in America to the rich.

    They have made this clear, and the poor have voted for it.

    Like here the poor seem so dumb they happliy vote for their own execution, bizarre.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,144

    For all of you bewildered as to why Trump won again and so comprehensively, perhaps I can crave your indulgence and repost the link to the article I wrote for PB on the Trump phenomena back in early 2021.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/01/09/this-is-not-about-trump-except-of-course-it-is/

    Nothing really has changed since Trump's first win in 2016. Indeed in no small part because of Trump and of course because of Biden as his successor, for millions of Amernican who see themselves as MIddle Class, things have only got worse.

    And the sad fact is that, just as in 2016 and 2020, there is no real prospect of a Trump presidency making it any better.

    As an aside, interstimg to see what has changed since then - Trump's relationship with Twitter being the most obvious.

    As I say they have abandoned democracy because of the price of eggs.
    That will always be the case. At the most extreme, starving, penniless people have little interest in democracy and this is just a milder version of that. It has ever been such since the birth iof the idea of democracy.

    Pythagoras may have been willing to die for his rather strange philosophical ideas but most people are not.
    Got any figures on who penniless people voted for? Last 2 times the poorest voted heavily against Trump.
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 12
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Kamala going into hiding for hours on end is a sign she would have been a terrible POTUS to be fair...

    Hillary did the same. Not a great look really.
    Yes, it’s pathetic

    Your supporters are hurting, your side of the nation is quailing, show some fucking backbone and get out there and make a good speech to steady their nerves and console their sadness. Hiding away is contemptible
    She doesn't need to be doing any of that rapidly i.e. during the US very early morning.

    She does need to give a damn good speech at the opportune moment.

    Give the woman a break.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,679
    Whatever, politics just became a whole lot more interesting
  • CNN just doing an update on House races and the New York felon, I mentioned in my preview, actually has 1% of the vote in Alaska
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6

    This victory will mean an unprecedented redistribution of wealth from the poor in America to the rich.

    They have made this clear, and the poor have voted for it.

    It was a vote against free trade and against immigration and against woke more than anything
  • For all of you bewildered as to why Trump won again and so comprehensively, perhaps I can crave your indulgence and repost the link to the article I wrote for PB on the Trump phenomena back in early 2021.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/01/09/this-is-not-about-trump-except-of-course-it-is/

    Nothing really has changed since Trump's first win in 2016. Indeed in no small part because of Trump and of course because of Biden as his successor, for millions of Amernican who see themselves as MIddle Class, things have only got worse.

    And the sad fact is that, just as in 2016 and 2020, there is no real prospect of a Trump presidency making it any better.

    As an aside, interstimg to see what has changed since then - Trump's relationship with Twitter being the most obvious.

    As I say they have abandoned democracy because of the price of eggs.
    That will always be the case. At the most extreme, starving, penniless people have little interest in democracy and this is just a milder version of that. It has ever been such since the birth iof the idea of democracy.

    Pythagoras may have been willing to die for his rather strange philosophical ideas but most people are not.
    Dunno, millions went to war against Hitler in 1940s.
    My Dad was one of them. He didn't want to go, but didn't have much choice. Nor, or the whole, did those he was fighting against.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,501
    HYUFD said:

    Not that it will do him much good, he needs to try and get more support from non US Nato allies in terms of aid now as Trump is certainly going to cut it for him
    Will Biden and legislators send him a huge cheque to cover the next year's expenses before Trump gets in?

    Morning everyone, by the way. Blimey.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,228
    Pass the sick bucket
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,266
    HYUFD said:

    It is cost of living in the US which has elected Trump again and looks to have given the GOP control of Congress.

    However the massive tariffs Trump and the GOP will impose from January will start the biggest global trade war in 100 years so not sure if that cost of living is going to get much better for the average American as a result

    Fortunately it doesn't matter if free and fair elections are no longer available to register dissent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Credit to Elon Musk. He went All In on Trump. And will now make a gazillion dollars.

    Yes. He made a huge call. And yet again it’s paid off

    Elon has tremendous power now. Maybe he will use it to save us from Starmer. We can only hope
    How does he do that in the short term i.e. within almost five years? Get Trump to point the nukes at Blighty and demand Nigel is installed as Governor General or he will shoot.

    You've come back more bonkers than when you left.
    Yes, that bit's ridiculous. But probably just Leon doing his piss taking bit.

    The point that right wing billionaires - not just Musk, but some of Vance's backers - are going to have remarkable influence on the administration is absolutely correct.
    I read @Leon 's comment to mean Starmer will only be one term. That seems likely now as he will get the blame in 2028 for the coming economic storm from US.

    I was clearly joking as @Nigelb noted. I don’t believe Musk will “overthrow” the British PM

    However I do believe Musk has now has unexampled power, the most important non politician in America and the world, and now untouchable (probably forever)

    I also believe this Trump victory is terrible for Labour, for so many reasons, and makes their defeat in 2028-29 near certain
    Depends what Trump's approval rating is, by 2028-29 he could be the most unpopular President since records begun or someone Americans are begging to change the constitution for to run for a third term who knows
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,595
    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 12
    Given the economic backdrop - with decline in living standards over the four years forbmany voters - any Democrat would have struggled. But it would have been much better to have chosen an outsider candidate, not tarred by association with the Biden administration.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,031

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ToryJim said:

    So America has decided to give power to a guy who fomented a coup. I wonder how that worked out in 1930s Germany.

    We need to understand the root causes of why people are supporting him. The Democrats have spent 10 years refusing to do that.
    It's that old chestnut, the "she was asking for it wearing that short skirt" line of political analysis.
    Or people are fucking bored of mass immigration and woke and being told if they are white they are evil and women are men and America (and britain) are uniquely evil and all that endless endless lefty bollocks?
    It's beyond them to realise this.

    This is their religion. This is their creed.
    And what is your religion, your creed?
    Conservativism.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,720
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.

    Vance is smart. I reckon he’d be a good president
    that is almost as deranged as Vance.
    I don't agree with @leon that Vance is smart or will make a good president, but at least he isn't a gibbering idiot and possibly would listen to sensible people. Given the appalling choice between Vance and Trump I would pick Vance. I don't know much about him and what I do know isn't positive, but he isn't Trump which is mostly what I need to know.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,189

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    The sun came up (behind the shield of anticyclonic gloom) and the world is still turning...
  • Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    Potentially Trump may be able to bring peace to the Middle East
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,228
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.

    Vance is smart. I reckon he’d be a good president
    I don't see a lot of evidence for that.
    Hillbilly Elegy is a fine book
    Was a good film as well
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,701

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    Maybe Putin will choke on his breakfast vodka and champagne?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,134
    In better news, Ukraine attacking a Russian Naval base on the Caspian Sea today, with their own drones.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,266

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    They can be turfed out in just four short years, oh wait...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,595
    malcolmg said:

    Pass the sick bucket
    What else can he do though?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,195
    edited November 6

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    Being alive for me
    Plenty of reasons to be cheerful, that is just one of many.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    kamski said:

    For all of you bewildered as to why Trump won again and so comprehensively, perhaps I can crave your indulgence and repost the link to the article I wrote for PB on the Trump phenomena back in early 2021.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/01/09/this-is-not-about-trump-except-of-course-it-is/

    Nothing really has changed since Trump's first win in 2016. Indeed in no small part because of Trump and of course because of Biden as his successor, for millions of Amernican who see themselves as MIddle Class, things have only got worse.

    And the sad fact is that, just as in 2016 and 2020, there is no real prospect of a Trump presidency making it any better.

    As an aside, interstimg to see what has changed since then - Trump's relationship with Twitter being the most obvious.

    As I say they have abandoned democracy because of the price of eggs.
    That will always be the case. At the most extreme, starving, penniless people have little interest in democracy and this is just a milder version of that. It has ever been such since the birth iof the idea of democracy.

    Pythagoras may have been willing to die for his rather strange philosophical ideas but most people are not.
    Got any figures on who penniless people voted for? Last 2 times the poorest voted heavily against Trump.
    CNN exit poll had Trump winning voters earning under $50 000 49% to 48% and Harris winning voters earning over $50 00050% to 47%.

    Trump also won voters earning under $100 000 49% to 48% while Harris won voters earning over $100 000 53% to 45%
    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,774
    edited November 6

    TimS said:

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    It depends if we are stupid enough to retaliate, as the EU will.

    An advantage of Brexit is that we can choose our own path. We can choose not to do so.

    Let's see if Labour do the right thing or go for solidarity with Europe. I won't hold my breath, sadly.
    Non-retaliation in trade war is like non-retaliation in real war, especially when dealing with someone like Trump. It'll just embolden him to go further just like every concession to Russia emboldens Putin.

    Trade retaliation is an art, and can be quite fun. The key is to make it as painful as possible for the other side while limiting the pain for your own side. Things your own population don't particularly need to buy, but which your opponent really needs to sell. Trump has already made a mistake in that direction, promising flat tariffs on everything. It means he hurts American consumers and component importers, rather than following the usual playbook of hiking duties on things like Scotch whisky, French couture or Italian leather goods.
    Not the same thing at all.

    Retaliation in a real war hurts your enemy.

    Retaliation in a tariff war hurts yourself.

    Tariffs hurt your own population more than the rest of the world.
    That's why it's an art. Selective tariffs in areas where you have competitive domestic producers hurt the enemy more. Blanket tariffs hurt you more.

    But in real war choosing to defend yourself also hurts you more in the short term. If Ukraine had capitulated to Putin in 3 days a lot less of the country would be a smouldering pile of rubble now and far fewer people would have died, but it would be a slave of its imperial master. If France hadn't surrendered in 1940 its towns and cities would contain far fewer UNESCO world heritage sites now.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 471
    malcolmg said:

    This victory will mean an unprecedented redistribution of wealth from the poor in America to the rich.

    They have made this clear, and the poor have voted for it.

    Like here the poor seem so dumb they happliy vote for their own execution, bizarre.
    Trumps policies are all inflationary, they will worsen the federal deficit, and accelerate dedollarisation. Given that any tarriffs will be met with counter tarrifs it will worse the trade balance too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,467
    Omnium said:

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    Maybe Putin will choke on his breakfast vodka and champagne?
    :lol:
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,144
    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.

    Vance is smart. I reckon he’d be a good president
    that is almost as deranged as Vance.
    I don't agree with @leon that Vance is smart or will make a good president, but at least he isn't a gibbering idiot and possibly would listen to sensible people. Given the appalling choice between Vance and Trump I would pick Vance. I don't know much about him and what I do know isn't positive, but he isn't Trump which is mostly what I need to know.
    I probably wouldn't. At least with Trump you know that as soon as his self-interest diverges from the dystopia Peter Thiel's longing for, Trump will go with his own self-interest.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,709
    Reasons to be cheerful: last races of the F1 season should be good, and next season could be very tasty as well.

    Glad I laid Norris for the title when I did. Small profit there, plus from whoever wins the Constructors'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,467
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.

    Vance is smart. I reckon he’d be a good president
    I don't see a lot of evidence for that.
    Hillbilly Elegy is a fine book
    Was a good film as well
    Difficult to see how the person who wrote Elegy is the same guy who is now VP, but maybe he will surprise us later down the road.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374

    If it’s the USA and Russia v Europe, I’m on the side of Europe.

    China will also be in a trade war with Trump. Iran maybe an actual war with Trump and Israel
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,228

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    Potentially Trump may be able to bring peace to the Middle East
    :D no time for gags
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,595

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    Being alive for me
    Good point BigG and glad to hear it!

    And all those I love are hale and hearty, which is a massive plus. Counting my blessings this morning.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,467
    GIN1138 said:

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    The sun came up (behind the shield of anticyclonic gloom) and the world is still turning...
    I'm sure Musk will soon put a stop to that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,266
    Harris hasn't conceded yet, what a w*****!
  • FossFoss Posts: 996
    The idea that 'Woke' is over is laughable; a Trump win means it goes from being a trend that had probably peaked to a renewed act of resistance.
  • As it's a fairly ominous morning, ift seems one of those moments to deive into the admiittedly erratic Nostradamus predictions for the next few years.

    "A naval battle,.
    The Red Adversary will become pale with fear,
    Leaving the Great Ocean in dread."
  • Is this another polling disaster ?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,256

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    Being alive for me
    It's a great day to be alive, not so sure it's a great day to be awake.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,710
    Ratters said:

    The Trump supporters seem to have missed that his election will kick-start a trade war, and we will not be on the side of the US. Europe will be in his crossfires as much as China, and the UK will be treated no different.

    So for all the talk of Musk winning - yes he will in the US, as Trump will see a symbiotic relationship there. But not in Europe. Teslas will face steep tariffs in the EU as retaliation inevitably happens.

    The question for the UK more widely is: are we going to continue to try to suck up to the US under Trump; or side with our allies in Europe? Or try to stay neutral?

    And if Starmer wants reproachment short of rejoining, the EU's door just flung wide open to him.

    The Teslas sold in Europe are made in Germany and Shanghai. But apart from that good point.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,716
    A new day has dawned, has it not? Congratulations to people who booked winnings, commiserations to the rest of us.
    I thought the Don's victory speech was a bit low-energy. He looks very old. I suspect things will be a bit of a shitshow until Vance takes over.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,175
    It looks as if the Republicans will gain 4-6 Senate seats.

    Perhaps Thomas will step down from SCOTUS, and be replaced by Roy Moore.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,031

    Harris hasn't conceded yet, what a w*****!
    Good to see you calling out Harris on that.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,144

    Is this another polling disaster ?

    Not really. National polling averages had Harris about 1% ahead. Trump might win by 1%. That would be closer than the historical average miss.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,826

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    Potentially Trump may be able to bring peace to the Middle East
    Presumably in a ‘they created a desert and called it peace’ kinda way.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,189

    Is this another polling disaster ?

    I think so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Now Donald Trump has declared victory in this presidential election, some world leaders have started congratulating him.

    "Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback! Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America," says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

    He adds: "This is a huge victory!"

    And Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban says similar: "The biggest comeback in US political history! Congratulations to President Donald Trump on his enormous win. A much needed victory for the World!"

    Keir Starmer has become the next world leader to congratulate Donald Trump on what he calls a "historic election victory".

    "I look forward to working with you in the years ahead," the UK's prime minister says, adding:

    “As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise.

    “From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czxrnw5qrprt
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,195

    Harris hasn't conceded yet, what a w*****!
    Good to see you calling out Harris on that.
    She's gone to bed. Pathetic really. Poor candidate.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,626
    edited November 6

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    We're not American/living in the US (most of us, anyway - commiserations to those who are).

    So, while the whole world may catch a cold from the tariffs (if he goes through with that) and the worsening security situation (if he collapses Ukraine support) we at least didn't just vote for Trump to lead us.

    ETA: Plus all the normal small joys of life, of course.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,467
    kamski said:

    Is this another polling disaster ?

    Not really. National polling averages had Harris about 1% ahead. Trump might win by 1%. That would be closer than the historical average miss.
    All with error range.

    I think we are back were started months ago. Harris needed to be consistently 4 or 5% clear on the national polling to have a cat's chance. She never came close.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,558
    Foss said:

    The idea that 'Woke' is over is laughable; a Trump win means it goes from being a trend that had probably peaked to a renewed act of resistance.

    No it doesn't. Woke has thrived because corporate boardrooms have been spending on woke initiatives. Under Trump this all comes to a grinding halt. Companies will fall in line with the new Trump admin very quickly and fundamentally there's just going to be less money to be made being woke.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374

    Is this another polling disaster ?

    Not really apart from some polls in the bluewall states and the likes of ABC who again massively underestimated Trump in the popular vote
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,720

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    Middle East possibly. Difficult to make it worse. Maybe Europe can get itself together for Ukraine and deal with tariffs and not be so dependent upon the US in future particularly regarding defence. China will need to consider it's relationship with the rest of the world.

    And then we should think it is not everything. As @Big_G_NorthWales says he is glad to be alive. I am celebrating losing a lot of weight and looking forward to celebrating my 70th birthday. Trump winning isn't everything. Enjoy the wins and take the losses on the chin.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,467

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    There'll be fewer cats in America soon.
  • Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    It won't be as bad as you think, but probably worse than you want it to be.
    That's about all I can offer.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,501

    Harris hasn't conceded yet, what a w*****!
    Remember Clinton didn't either. Poor behaviour from the "adults".
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,266

    Harris hasn't conceded yet, what a w*****!
    Good to see you calling out Harris on that.
    I am calling out Starmer. She is entitled to hang on until Trump reaches 270.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,665

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    I'm cheerful. I'm looking for forward to squirming of Trump's admirers on here and elsewhere when he and chief oligarch Musk turn the US into a failed state. Ba ha ha ha ha ha!
  • Is this another polling disaster ?

    Polling seems pretty reasonable to me, excepting Selzer in Iowa.

    Atlas Intel did very well in their final national and state polls:

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,249

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ToryJim said:

    So America has decided to give power to a guy who fomented a coup. I wonder how that worked out in 1930s Germany.

    We need to understand the root causes of why people are supporting him. The Democrats have spent 10 years refusing to do that.
    It's that old chestnut, the "she was asking for it wearing that short skirt" line of political analysis.
    Or people are fucking bored of mass immigration and woke and being told if they are white they are evil and women are men and America (and britain) are uniquely evil and all that endless endless lefty bollocks?
    It's beyond them to realise this.

    This is their religion. This is their creed.
    And what is your religion, your creed?
    Conservativism.
    'Conservatism' is your religion? Really?

    And how do you define that? Banning abortions? Birth control? Deporting lots of people of the 'wrong' skin colour? Taking money from the poor to give to the rich?

    I'm just trying to work out what you've got in common with Trump and the GOP's agenda.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,266
    Taz said:

    Harris hasn't conceded yet, what a w*****!
    Good to see you calling out Harris on that.
    She's gone to bed. Pathetic really. Poor candidate.
    She conducted herself with great dignity throughout the campaign.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,134
    Illinois (D+8) and New York (D+11) a lot closer than Florida (R+13) and Texas (R+14). Partly that simply reflects the national swing towards Trump, of course, but it is a striking result nevertheless.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,138
    MaxPB said:

    Foss said:

    The idea that 'Woke' is over is laughable; a Trump win means it goes from being a trend that had probably peaked to a renewed act of resistance.

    No it doesn't. Woke has thrived because corporate boardrooms have been spending on woke initiatives. Under Trump this all comes to a grinding halt. Companies will fall in line with the new Trump admin very quickly and fundamentally there's just going to be less money to be made being woke.
    How does it come to a grinding halt? Corporations can choose to continue the idiocy surely?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,595

    As it's a fairly ominous morning, ift seems one of those moments to deive into the admiittedly erratic Nostradamus predictions for the next few years.

    "A naval battle,.
    The Red Adversary will become pale with fear,
    Leaving the Great Ocean in dread."

    Never mind Nostradamus, what about his cousin Leondamus? A few predictions from him so that we know what certainly won't be happening would be useful.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,783
    So PB has moved from Trump can't possibly win to he will drop dead in a week or so.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,144
    carnforth said:

    Harris hasn't conceded yet, what a w*****!
    Remember Clinton didn't either. Poor behaviour from the "adults".
    What on earth are you on about? Trump was the one who didn't concede, and Harris probably isn't going to concede until Trump reaches 270. It's also the middle of the night in the USA.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,134

    TimS said:

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    It depends if we are stupid enough to retaliate, as the EU will.

    An advantage of Brexit is that we can choose our own path. We can choose not to do so.

    Let's see if Labour do the right thing or go for solidarity with Europe. I won't hold my breath, sadly.
    Non-retaliation in trade war is like non-retaliation in real war, especially when dealing with someone like Trump. It'll just embolden him to go further just like every concession to Russia emboldens Putin.

    Trade retaliation is an art, and can be quite fun. The key is to make it as painful as possible for the other side while limiting the pain for your own side. Things your own population don't particularly need to buy, but which your opponent really needs to sell. Trump has already made a mistake in that direction, promising flat tariffs on everything. It means he hurts American consumers and component importers, rather than following the usual playbook of hiking duties on things like Scotch whisky, French couture or Italian leather goods.
    Not the same thing at all.

    Retaliation in a real war hurts your enemy.

    Retaliation in a tariff war hurts yourself.

    Tariffs hurt your own population more than the rest of the world.
    Yes, but it's a bit like MAD. If you don't retaliate then you have nothing to negotiate with when trying to persuade the other side to drop their tariffs.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,138
    Foss said:

    The idea that 'Woke' is over is laughable; a Trump win means it goes from being a trend that had probably peaked to a renewed act of resistance.

    I fear you may be right. It is unfortunate to say the least that the loudest dissenters on 'woke' are the very worst people to have on our side (e.g. Trump, Farage).
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,501
    Should have chosen a better candidate than Biden last time, when any number of people could have beaten Trump. Or could they?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,266
    carnforth said:

    Harris hasn't conceded yet, what a w*****!
    Remember Clinton didn't either. Poor behaviour from the "adults".
    Poor grammar from me. I was critical of Starmer not Harris.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,490
    How humiliated must Kari Lake be feeling.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,467

    Johnny Zhang (张润成)
    @imbecilesrus

    if current projections hold zero states will have swung left from 2020, the first time since 1976 (!!!) every state margin has swung in the same direction
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    Markets are going gangbusters apparently according to Nick Ferrari !
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,144
    TOPPING said:

    So PB has moved from Trump can't possibly win to he will drop dead in a week or so.

    How have you set a filter on PB so that you don't see the vast majority of posters on here? There's a couple of people I'd consider filtering out sometimes if I knew how.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,595

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    I'm cheerful. I'm looking for forward to squirming of Trump's admirers on here and elsewhere when he and chief oligarch Musk turn the US into a failed state. Ba ha ha ha ha ha!
    I'd suggest there aren't really many true Trump admirers on here. Even the hard-right PBers acknowledge his flaws.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,467
    Let's check in on the results in the seven main presidential swing states. As we've reported, Trump is already projected to win Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. And so far, more votes have been counted for him than for Harris in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin as well. That raises the possibility that he could sweep all seven states for a 312-226 Electoral College victory.

    NBC News
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,501
    kamski said:

    carnforth said:

    Harris hasn't conceded yet, what a w*****!
    Remember Clinton didn't either. Poor behaviour from the "adults".
    What on earth are you on about? Trump was the one who didn't concede, and Harris probably isn't going to concede until Trump reaches 270. It's also the middle of the night in the USA.
    Clinton didn't give a concession speech in 2016 - she ran away. Look it up.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,622

    As it's a fairly ominous morning, ift seems one of those moments to deive into the admiittedly erratic Nostradamus predictions for the next few years.

    "A naval battle,.
    The Red Adversary will become pale with fear,
    Leaving the Great Ocean in dread."

    Never mind Nostradamus, what about his cousin Leondamus? A few predictions from him so that we know what certainly won't be happening would be useful.
    ?
    Pretty much exactly what Leon has said would happen, has happened.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,467
    edited November 6
    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    Kamala Harris lost this election when she pivoted to focus almost exclusively on attacking Donald Trump.

    Voters already know everything there is about Trump – but they still wanted to know more about Harris’ plans for the first hour, first day, first month and first year of her administration.

    It was a colossal failure for her campaign to shine the spotlight on Trump more than on Harris’ own ideas. #Election2024

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1854058416920293410



    On the other hand:

    Greg Krieg
    @GregJKrieg
    ·
    12m
    now’s a good time to be skeptical of anyone saying Harris lost because of (this one thing)

    https://x.com/GregJKrieg/status/1854082568708141437
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    carnforth said:

    Harris hasn't conceded yet, what a w*****!
    Remember Clinton didn't either. Poor behaviour from the "adults".
    Seriously we are quibbling over the timing of concessions from one side when Trump has never conceded 2020. Absolute joke the different standards applied.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,365
    Cicero said:

    Since 1941 the interests and the values of the US and the UK have been aligned based on the agreed principles of the Atlantic Charter. Those values included, but were not limited to, the value of a peaceful democratic order and a just, rules-based system of security and trade.

    Trump, like his backers seems to believe that these principles are not universal and have outlived their usefulness. Instead of multilateral agreements, they argue for a more direct, unilateral approach with the immediate interests of the United States a priority at all times. It is no good arguing that the altruism of post war America allowed the recovery of (western) Europe and the emergence of a mutually enriching trade. This point of view believes that the goodwill of the US has been exploited by enemies (China) and allies (the EU) alike.

    The mealy-mouthed compromises which have been the foundation of globalisation are themselves seen as morally weak and in any event led to the wholesale off-shoring of jobs and large parts of the Western economy to Asia. Again, there is no point in arguing for Ricardo´s comparative advantage when you see once prosperous factories closed and the urban blight of drugs and vice replacing it.

    As for the special pleading for minorities, racial and sexual, this infuriates large numbers of straight white voters who feel that affirmative action has replaced one injustice with another, and who remain, at best, uncomfortable with the reality of gay rights activists who seem to be pushing for acceptance of ever less acceptable, even "degenerate" groups at a time when birthrates have collapsed and the demographic survival of some places seems doubtful. Abortion rights are also involved in this world view too and are not positive.

    Trump and the radical right offers clear and simple solutions. That these solutions in many cases seem at best questionable, at worse dangerous and potentially authoritarian does not bother the MAGA world view at all.

    The rise of general authoritarianism is a clear global trend. Today Trump, in two years time, perhaps, Le Pen. As for the UK, it doesn´t matter, our withdrawal from the EU commits us to the United States, no matter that the values of the US and the UK have always differed and may now be misaligned. The decisive power of the United States is now over, it is one amongst many. If you no longer trust the fairness of the US, China doesn´t look so bad an alternative. Europe can only be a force if Russia is defeated and then brought into the EU state system, which is now very much not the wish of the USA.

    Farage offers us the Trumpian future. Those of us who still believe in a fundamental justice will need to answer this defeat. Can Britain overcome our own crisis? Can we realign? This is now a fundamental state challenge for the UK, and not just from the centre and left of our political system.

    Project 2025 is coming. What is our response? What choices, if any, do we have?

    I think this says many of the right things and asks the right questions. The big turn from the path towards greater and greater democracy (how's Russia getting on with that?) which this result strengthens asks another question too. Genuine democracies of the sort we know in western Europe don't wage war on other ones. This history is weakening, and today won't help.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,679
    It was the stunts that did it. The burger drive-through, the lorry truck driving etc. Who can gainsay that?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,783
    On Ukraine, which everyone says they fear for now that The Donald is in charge. And some have hoped that the UK "steps up" in place of the US which of course is an instant LOL.

    Let's try to take the Putin-appeaser, coward, you're just like Chamberlain bit out and see where we are.

    Without substantial western aid it looks as though we are more or less in a stalemate (not having followed every platoon attack and company advance, as some on here were at one point).

    With people dying.

    Now, I have always said that it is up to the people of Ukraine and the people of Ukraine only as to when or if they decide to negotiate a peace and I still hold to that.

    But, at some point the question has to be asked whether it might be better to negotiate a settlement based upon what people want to happen, together with what is happening on the ground.

    And of all the POTUSs I think Trump, or his team, might be the person to push that forward.

    You may hate the idea but it is logical and consistent to do so.

    Same with the Middle East, for that matter.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,783

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    I'm cheerful. I'm looking for forward to squirming of Trump's admirers on here and elsewhere when he and chief oligarch Musk turn the US into a failed state. Ba ha ha ha ha ha!
    Eagerly await you moving on to bargaining.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,501
    edited November 6
    ToryJim said:

    carnforth said:

    Harris hasn't conceded yet, what a w*****!
    Remember Clinton didn't either. Poor behaviour from the "adults".
    Seriously we are quibbling over the timing of concessions from one side when Trump has never conceded 2020. Absolute joke the different standards applied.
    Don't expect better from Trump. Expect better from the Democrats.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,626
    MaxPB said:

    Foss said:

    The idea that 'Woke' is over is laughable; a Trump win means it goes from being a trend that had probably peaked to a renewed act of resistance.

    No it doesn't. Woke has thrived because corporate boardrooms have been spending on woke initiatives. Under Trump this all comes to a grinding halt. Companies will fall in line with the new Trump admin very quickly and fundamentally there's just going to be less money to be made being woke.
    'money to be made being woke'? I thought it was 'go woke go broke'?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,448
    Foss said:

    The idea that 'Woke' is over is laughable; a Trump win means it goes from being a trend that had probably peaked to a renewed act of resistance.

    Two sides to a culture war.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,266

    As it's a fairly ominous morning, ift seems one of those moments to deive into the admiittedly erratic Nostradamus predictions for the next few years.

    "A naval battle,.
    The Red Adversary will become pale with fear,
    Leaving the Great Ocean in dread."

    Never mind Nostradamus, what about his cousin Leondamus? A few predictions from him so that we know what certainly won't be happening would be useful.
    There were plenty of us suggesting Harris would win the PV and lose the College. So half right. The majority of us despise Trump but we're fearful of the win.

    You and Casino are making shit up.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,490
    Perhaps the Dems are now regretting dragging out Trump's court cases so long.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,448
    geoffw said:

    It was the stunts that did it. The burger drive-through, the lorry truck driving etc. Who can gainsay that?

    The McDonalds thing was excellent.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,595
    kjh said:

    Reasons to be cheerful this morning...

    Anyone think of any?

    Middle East possibly. Difficult to make it worse. Maybe Europe can get itself together for Ukraine and deal with tariffs and not be so dependent upon the US in future particularly regarding defence. China will need to consider it's relationship with the rest of the world.

    And then we should think it is not everything. As @Big_G_NorthWales says he is glad to be alive. I am celebrating losing a lot of weight and looking forward to celebrating my 70th birthday. Trump winning isn't everything. Enjoy the wins and take the losses on the chin.
    Great advice @kjh, thanks.

    We are expecting to complete on the purchase of a plot this week and then launch into a self-build, eco-house project, which we are enormously lucky to be able to do. I doubt President Trump will be stopping us doing that (although he might make it more expensive, I guess).
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