Everyone, and I mean everyone, needs a massive dose of humble pie and to revist all their assumptions.
All of them.
Trump won a majority of the vote. He got massive swings amongst constituencies that are meant to hate him and it was nearly a landslide in the EC.
There's some serious introspection needed and difficult questions to be asked.
Why is a dose of humble pie needed? I thought the result would be close, the result looks to be close. Most people here thought the result would be close. We were all right.
No, Casino is at least partially right. While I'll come out slightly ahead overall, thanks to hedging, it would have been a very profitable night indeed had Harris won.
I'm happy to acknowledge I called that wrong. We talked at length about the polls being wrong in either direction, and I put money on the wrong way (the hedges, thankfully, acknowledged the possibility of the other eventuality).
The implications of the Trump win are going to take a lot more time to disentangle, though.
If he goes ahead with his pledges on tariffs and deportation, there are going to be a lot of very angry and disappointed Trump voters in four years time, for example.
Some people here predicted Harris would win comfortably. Sadly, they were wrong. But most people thought it could go either way.
Everyone, and I mean everyone, needs a massive dose of humble pie and to revist all their assumptions.
All of them.
Trump won a majority of the vote. He got massive swings amongst constituencies that are meant to hate him and it was nearly a landslide in the EC.
There's some serious introspection needed and difficult questions to be asked.
Why is a dose of humble pie needed? I thought the result would be close, the result looks to be close. Most people here thought the result would be close. We were all right.
It's not close, he's heading for a similarly sized victory as Biden on 2020.
One thing I got wrong is that I thought it would be seriously close. Its not. Trump has Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin. Like the incumbent government here the blue wall has collapsed entirely. I was always unsure whether picking Walz over Shapiro was a good idea but against that background it almost certainly does not matter.
I thought Harris fought an exceptional campaign. That didn't matter either. Bidenomics has delivered for the US better than the economic policies of any western government. Not enough. Media, and in particular Fox and X, have persuaded the majority that they were in dire straits when they were not. That they were in a crime wave when they were not.
Trump will now double down on the right wing majority in the SC for a generation. The Federal cases against him for keeping secrets in his bathroom and causing a riot on Jan 6th will vanish. Women's freedom will continue to be severely curtailed. Gilead approaches. Grim. Really grim. Mainly for the people of America but we will have the backwash.
That anecdote “he didn’t start any wars” is one of these interesting things that I thought meant nothing at the time but I wonder if it reflects more what people were voting for as opposed to against.
Morning all.
Yes, I noticed this online a lot. There was a large online constituency who thought Trump represented an antu-war vote.
And not without reason
Would Putin have invaded Ukraine with Trump as POTUS? It is at least arguable he would not have risked it
I can also see Trump putting the screws on Netanyahu to end his wars, just because that will make Trump look good (in a way Biden/Harris would never do)
I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.
It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.
I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.
And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.
I guess Kamala must have been a really, really crap candidate.
And that's before we get on to what the Dems have been up to, covering up for Bidens senility for years...
Yes, that's it exactly. Fear of a Harris presidency outweighed fear of a Trump presidency. We were shielded in the UK from just how negatively she was seen and how extremist she was perceived to be.
Johnson versus Corbyn redux.
People thought, "yes, this guy's a lying clown, but the alternative is going to wreck the country".
That's harsh on both Johnson and Harris, of course!
This reminds me of Brexit. The shock. The motivation for it, the subsequent regret.
It's less shocking than 2016, because it has happened before. I suppose the hope is he was all mouth and trousers then and he might be again.
There are however more sinister people waiting in the wings and eating three BigMacs a day is a distinct health negative.
Its MORE shocking. In 2016 people didn't know what he represented.
In 2024 they know exactly what he represents. And voted for it.
Not really, in 2020 he was up against a WASP male. I was offended earlier when Adam Boulton said Harris would struggle to overcome the handicaps of not being male and white. Seems he was at least in part correct.
Now that colonials have gotten their election out of the way the next big election for PB to focus on is the 2026 Holyrood election.
So PB will be wall to wall coverage about North Britain between now and then.
23 days until the likely election just across the Irish Sea. It may see that rare thing these days - an incumbent winning reelection.
Though, with the news yesterday that public spending is up 13% this year it perhaps isn't that surprising. If a government has the cash (temporarily) it can buy votes.
If I was Kemi, I would use PMQs to go after Lab for sending volunteers for the Democrats. Also question whether Lammy's position is tenable (he previously called Trump a Neo-Nazi)
When tariffs hit and Ukraine suffers setbacks because of Trump’s policies, I’m not convinced Badenoch cosying up to Trump will be good for her own electoral performance.
She must and will stay aloof. The problem for her is that Trump's victory gives Farage more credibility with Right of Centre voters in the UK. Until the dispute on the right of British politics has been settled there is no way we can tackle government as a whole. There is a way that Reform and the Conservatives can co-exist but there are too many on both sides, encouraged by our common enemies who want to nuke each other.
I might have to listen to Rory Stewart's podcast. Sounds like fun for those whose lives he made hell up here.
Everyone, and I mean everyone, needs a massive dose of humble pie and to revist all their assumptions.
All of them.
Trump won a majority of the vote. He got massive swings amongst constituencies that are meant to hate him and it was nearly a landslide in the EC.
There's some serious introspection needed and difficult questions to be asked.
Why is a dose of humble pie needed? I thought the result would be close, the result looks to be close. Most people here thought the result would be close. We were all right.
And it was mostly a failure of hope, not a failure of analysis.
It was a close election in a foreign (for most of us) country. If we called it right every time then we'd all be getting our butlers to type these posts. Casino just wants us all to feel bad about him losing money.
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
If I was Kemi, I would use PMQs to go after Lab for sending volunteers for the Democrats. Also question whether Lammy's position is tenable (he previously called Trump a Neo-Nazi)
I don't think that will work.
Even most Tory voters would have preferred Harris to have won, to most Brits Donald Trump is about as appealing as a prostate exam from Edward Scissorhands.
It's possible that this makes things more difficult for KB, not less.
She can't get closer to Trump than Farage, because that's anatomically impossible. But if she says anything positive about the new Chief at all, she cuts herself off from a lot of British voters.
Besides. There's the whole question of whether the next President actually succeeds or not. The Trump agenda isn't anything new. Has it ever ended well?
Reform is the most likely beneficiary of any ‘Trump effect’, and that just makes the Tories’ road back to credibility all the more difficult.
John Rentoul reposted J.L. Partners 🇺🇸 @J_L_Partners · 36m Politico Playbook: J.L. Partners / @DailyMail model and election forecast was the most accurate in the country.
I'm slightly in shock that opponents of Trump have conducted themselves so poorly as to allow him to win again. A really extraordinary failure.
It’s doubly odd that they found a way to win in 2020 and didn’t manage to do it again.
But as I said above, I do wonder if this election was genuinely unwinnable for them whatever happened.
They didn't really, they got lucky that the election happened to coincide with a pandemic that Trump handled disastrously. Even then he barely lost.
But that’s the point isn’t it? Covid was handled here disastrously if you take Partygate. But fundamentally the Tories got thrown out because of the economy.
Starmer needs to do something on the economy or he’s out.
Not easily achievable in the midst of a Trump engineered World depression. I don't think the Conservatives will necessarily be the net beneficiaries. Let's hear it for Britain Trump (Farage).
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
The Trump supporters seem to have missed that his election will kick-start a trade war, and we will not be on the side of the US. Europe will be in his crossfires as much as China, and the UK will be treated no different.
So for all the talk of Musk winning - yes he will in the US, as Trump will see a symbiotic relationship there. But not in Europe. Teslas will face steep tariffs in the EU as retaliation inevitably happens.
The question for the UK more widely is: are we going to continue to try to suck up to the US under Trump; or side with our allies in Europe? Or try to stay neutral?
And if Starmer wants reproachment short of rejoining, the EU's door just flung wide open to him.
I totally get why they voted for Trump first time round. Many, many people failed/ignored by the state and wanting to roll the dice. Like us with Brexit. What I can't understand is, having seen Trump in action as president, how the US could vote for him again.
John Rentoul reposted J.L. Partners 🇺🇸 @J_L_Partners · 36m Politico Playbook: J.L. Partners / @DailyMail model and election forecast was the most accurate in the country.
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
Vance is smart. I reckon he’d be a good president
If he is smart, he will keep his head down and keep feeding Trump the burgers….
That anecdote “he didn’t start any wars” is one of these interesting things that I thought meant nothing at the time but I wonder if it reflects more what people were voting for as opposed to against.
A lot of what Trump represents is indeed consistent with the long-term traditions of US geopolitics before the Cold War. That is, military isolationism and a focus on its own hemisphere, coupled with trade protectionism.
The US economy grew rapidly in the late 19th and early 20th century but it was always behind a significant tariff barrier. Customs duties into the US were consistently much higher than the European powers, and way behind the global leader in free trade, the UK.
Its avoidance of the costly wars on the European continent and Asian margins from the Franco-Prussian war through the Russo-Japanese war until the final throes of WW1 gave it a huge economic advantage. It then returned to the old policies of tariff barriers and military neutrality in the 1930s until Pearl Harbor. It was only in the post-WW2 period that it entered what might now seem like an aberration - a period of interventionism and trade liberalisation.
It can do this because it has a perfectly protected strategic position - it dominates its own continent - and a rich agricultural and industrial heartland with its own domestic energy sources, that benefits from economies of scale. It could survive perfectly well, albeit probably losing relative economic and geopolitical clout, even if it embraced full-on autarky and neutrality.
Credit to Elon Musk. He went All In on Trump. And will now make a gazillion dollars.
Yes. He made a huge call. And yet again it’s paid off
Elon has tremendous power now. Maybe he will use it to save us from Starmer. We can only hope
How does he do that in the short term i.e. within almost five years? Get Trump to point the nukes at Blighty and demand Nigel is installed as Governor General or he will shoot.
You've come back more bonkers than when you left.
Yes, that bit's ridiculous. But probably just Leon doing his piss taking bit.
The point that right wing billionaires - not just Musk, but some of Vance's backers - are going to have remarkable influence on the administration is absolutely correct.
That anecdote “he didn’t start any wars” is one of these interesting things that I thought meant nothing at the time but I wonder if it reflects more what people were voting for as opposed to against.
I think we do have to look at his claims he would stop WWIII as a factor. There are a lot of us who believe he’ll make the world a more dangerous place in the medium term, but for a lot of Americans they will look at Ukraine and the ME and be genuinely concerned. Then you’ve got a guy selling fairy dust who is going to disentangle you from it all and keep you safe.
That anecdote “he didn’t start any wars” is one of these interesting things that I thought meant nothing at the time but I wonder if it reflects more what people were voting for as opposed to against.
Morning all.
Yes, I noticed this online a lot. There was a large online constituency who thought Trump represented an antu-war vote.
I think Trump is supremely uninterested in foreign policy. He doesn't care much about any foreign country, including the UK.
He will not get America involved in wars, he will let Putin, Bibi and Xi do what they like. It's not America so who cares?
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
This reminds me of Brexit. The shock. The motivation for it, the subsequent regret.
It's less shocking than 2016, because it has happened before. I suppose the hope is he was all mouth and trousers then and he might be again.
There are however more sinister people waiting in the wings and eating three BigMacs a day is a distinct health negative.
Its MORE shocking. In 2016 people didn't know what he represented.
In 2024 they know exactly what he represents. And voted for it.
Not really, in 2020 he was up against a WASP male. I was offended earlier when Adam Boulton said Harris would struggle to overcome the handicaps of not being male and white. Seems he was at least in part correct.
Biden isn't a WASP, he is a WIC.
My bad. True enough, and a proud Catholic, but he looks like a WASP male and Kamala doesn't.
I totally get why they voted for Trump first time round. Many, many people failed/ignored by the state and wanting to roll the dice. Like us with Brexit. What I can't understand is, having seen Trump in action as president, how the US could vote for him again.
Because they were better off in 2020 than they are now.
Now they were better off in 2016 than they were in 2020 but that requires an even longer term lens which most people won't have.
This reminds me of Brexit. The shock. The motivation for it, the subsequent regret.
It's less shocking than 2016, because it has happened before. I suppose the hope is he was all mouth and trousers then and he might be again.
There are however more sinister people waiting in the wings and eating three BigMacs a day is a distinct health negative.
Its MORE shocking. In 2016 people didn't know what he represented.
In 2024 they know exactly what he represents. And voted for it.
Not really, in 2020 he was up against a WASP male. I was offended earlier when Adam Boulton said Harris would struggle to overcome the handicaps of not being male and white. Seems he was at least in part correct.
Biden was in fact a WASC, not a WASP. And might contest the Anglo Saxon bit if he were in one of his Irish moods.
I totally get why they voted for Trump first time round. Many, many people failed/ignored by the state and wanting to roll the dice. Like us with Brexit. What I can't understand is, having seen Trump in action as president, how the US could vote for him again.
Enough of them have forgotten presumably.
iirc he had pretty poor ratings throughout the entire presidency.
The Trump supporters seem to have missed that his election will kick-start a trade war, and we will not be on the side of the US. Europe will be in his crossfires as much as China, and the UK will be treated no different.
So for all the talk of Musk winning - yes he will in the US, as Trump will see a symbiotic relationship there. But not in Europe. Teslas will face steep tariffs in the EU as retaliation inevitably happens.
The question for the UK more widely is: are we going to continue to try to suck up to the US under Trump; or side with our allies in Europe? Or try to stay neutral?
And if Starmer wants reproachment short of rejoining, the EU's door just flung wide open to him.
The other issue we have is that our entire military strategy is based and built upon close co-operation with the US and that may no longer be possible or practical.
That depends on whether the playing field remains reasonably level. We’ve just seen how difficult it is to defend as an incumbent, and VP to P through the electoral route is an exceptionally rare journey to make.
The scenario where that becomes more credible is if he’s already President by the time 2028 comes around. Which is certainly quite possible.
Very possible. If there’s a next President market, Vance has to be the favourite: he’ll either succeed Trump or he’s the most likely Republican candidate in 2028.
Don't you think Donald will have fallen out with him by then? My money would be on one of the Trump offspring.
I'm slightly in shock that opponents of Trump have conducted themselves so poorly as to allow him to win again. A really extraordinary failure.
It’s doubly odd that they found a way to win in 2020 and didn’t manage to do it again.
But as I said above, I do wonder if this election was genuinely unwinnable for them whatever happened.
They didn't really, they got lucky that the election happened to coincide with a pandemic that Trump handled disastrously. Even then he barely lost.
But that’s the point isn’t it? Covid was handled here disastrously if you take Partygate. But fundamentally the Tories got thrown out because of the economy.
Starmer needs to do something on the economy or he’s out.
Not really the same comparison as there was no GE here in the immediate post-COVID aftermath. And Partygate was a very different "failure" than what happened in the US where Trump promoted quack treatments and denied the seriousness of the disease
But the Tories lost? The main reason they lost here IMHO is that after many years people felt the country had not improved for them, I.e. the economy was not working.
To me that’s why people have rolled the dice with Trump again?
I suspect you are right in that respect. The most powerful Trump ad I saw was one that listed some basic food staples and how much they cost under Trump and the cost under Biden.
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
I found Pence's bloodless ironclad religious conservatism absolutely terrifying at the time. I remember thinking that liberals who would have liked him to take over from Trump who as an ex Democrat can be surprisingly socially liberal (on stuff like homosexuality) were crazy.
I totally get why they voted for Trump first time round. Many, many people failed/ignored by the state and wanting to roll the dice. Like us with Brexit. What I can't understand is, having seen Trump in action as president, how the US could vote for him again.
Do I really have to say this YET AGAIN??
IT’S BECAUSE MANY AMERICANS KNOW THAT TRUMP IS A CRIMINAL LOON, BUT THEY FIRMLY BELIEVE THE DEMOCRATS ARE MUCH MUCH WORSE
I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.
It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.
I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.
And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.
Do you think you don’t understand it is because you think erroneously that Americans are just like us? Maybe because our news and media blurs the lines between the two countries and culture we see the liberal cultural side of the US but not the huge equivalent of normal “red wall” (in British terms) people.
It would probably help people who think we are the same if the US spoke a different language as it would stop this misconception of sameness.
The same people who don’t understand Trump didn’t understand Brexit, Boris, the Red Wall.
Wait a gosh darn minute, aren’t you contradicting yourself by equating Trump, Brexit, Boris and the Red Wall? We’ve just been told that people are fucking bored of mass immigration and woke and being told if they are white they are evil and women are men and America (and britain) are uniquely evil and all that endless endless lefty bollocks which suggests a certain universality.
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
When I spoke to OGH last month it was the prospect of Vance becoming POTUS that scared OGH the most about a Trump victory.
I tried to reassure OGH that Vance has impeccable judgment because he previously called Trump America's Hitler.
The Trump supporters seem to have missed that his election will kick-start a trade war, and we will not be on the side of the US. Europe will be in his crossfires as much as China, and the UK will be treated no different.
So for all the talk of Musk winning - yes he will in the US, as Trump will see a symbiotic relationship there. But not in Europe. Teslas will face steep tariffs in the EU as retaliation inevitably happens.
The question for the UK more widely is: are we going to continue to try to suck up to the US under Trump; or side with our allies in Europe? Or try to stay neutral?
And if Starmer wants reproachment short of rejoining, the EU's door just flung wide open to him.
I think the Trump fanbois are going to be rather frustrated by Starmer's response to Trump. It won't be their simpering servitude.
If it really does kick off I can see us sheltering with Europe.
That anecdote “he didn’t start any wars” is one of these interesting things that I thought meant nothing at the time but I wonder if it reflects more what people were voting for as opposed to against.
Morning all.
Yes, I noticed this online a lot. There was a large online constituency who thought Trump represented an antu-war vote.
I think Trump is supremely uninterested in foreign policy. He doesn't care much about any foreign country, including the UK.
He will not get America involved in wars, he will let Putin , Bibi and Xi do what they like. It's not America so who cares?
I think that's probably correct, he will use tariffs and trade sanctions of he feels US/his interests are being threatened but Taiwan, Ukraine and Europe are in for at least 4 years of US isolationism. It's time for us to tool up, that £22bn in extra NHS spending looked like a luxury when it was announced, today it looks completely like the wrong priority, it needs to be shoved at defence.
Since 1941 the interests and the values of the US and the UK have been aligned based on the agreed principles of the Atlantic Charter. Those values included, but were not limited to, the value of a peaceful democratic order and a just, rules-based system of security and trade.
Trump, like his backers seems to believe that these principles are not universal and have outlived their usefulness. Instead of multilateral agreements, they argue for a more direct, unilateral approach with the immediate interests of the United States a priority at all times. It is no good arguing that the altruism of post war America allowed the recovery of (western) Europe and the emergence of a mutually enriching trade. This point of view believes that the goodwill of the US has been exploited by enemies (China) and allies (the EU) alike.
The mealy-mouthed compromises which have been the foundation of globalisation are themselves seen as morally weak and in any event led to the wholesale off-shoring of jobs and large parts of the Western economy to Asia. Again, there is no point in arguing for Ricardo´s comparative advantage when you see once prosperous factories closed and the urban blight of drugs and vice replacing it.
As for the special pleading for minorities, racial and sexual, this infuriates large numbers of straight white voters who feel that affirmative action has replaced one injustice with another, and who remain, at best, uncomfortable with the reality of gay rights activists who seem to be pushing for acceptance of ever less acceptable, even "degenerate" groups at a time when birthrates have collapsed and the demographic survival of some places seems doubtful. Abortion rights are also involved in this world view too and are not positive.
Trump and the radical right offers clear and simple solutions. That these solutions in many cases seem at best questionable, at worse dangerous and potentially authoritarian does not bother the MAGA world view at all.
The rise of general authoritarianism is a clear global trend. Today Trump, in two years time, perhaps, Le Pen. As for the UK, it doesn´t matter, our withdrawal from the EU commits us to the United States, no matter that the values of the US and the UK have always differed and may now be misaligned. The decisive power of the United States is now over, it is one amongst many. If you no longer trust the fairness of the US, China doesn´t look so bad an alternative. Europe can only be a force if Russia is defeated and then brought into the EU state system, which is now very much not the wish of the USA.
Farage offers us the Trumpian future. Those of us who still believe in a fundamental justice will need to answer this defeat. Can Britain overcome our own crisis? Can we realign? This is now a fundamental state challenge for the UK, and not just from the centre and left of our political system.
Project 2025 is coming. What is our response? What choices, if any, do we have?
Credit to Elon Musk. He went All In on Trump. And will now make a gazillion dollars.
Yes. He made a huge call. And yet again it’s paid off
Elon has tremendous power now. Maybe he will use it to save us from Starmer. We can only hope
How does he do that in the short term i.e. within almost five years? Get Trump to point the nukes at Blighty and demand Nigel is installed as Governor General or he will shoot.
You've come back more bonkers than when you left.
Yes, that bit's ridiculous. But probably just Leon doing his piss taking bit.
The point that right wing billionaires - not just Musk, but some of Vance's backers - are going to have remarkable influence on the administration is absolutely correct.
I read @Leon 's comment to mean Starmer will only be one term. That seems likely now as he will get the blame in 2028 for the coming economic storm from US.
Kamala going into hiding for hours on end is a sign she would have been a terrible POTUS to be fair...
Hillary did the same. Not a great look really.
Yes, it’s pathetic
Your supporters are hurting, your side of the nation is quailing, show some fucking backbone and get out there and make a good speech to steady their nerves and console their sadness. Hiding away is contemptible
Credit to Elon Musk. He went All In on Trump. And will now make a gazillion dollars.
You're thinking of Jeff Bezos who stopped the papers endorsing Kamala and presumably has rescued his Blue Origin contracts and protected Amazon from monopoly charges.
The danger for Elon Musk is that Trump's tariffs screw up Tesla's supply chains and possibly his foreign markets too if there is retaliation.
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
The Trump supporters seem to have missed that his election will kick-start a trade war, and we will not be on the side of the US. Europe will be in his crossfires as much as China, and the UK will be treated no different.
So for all the talk of Musk winning - yes he will in the US, as Trump will see a symbiotic relationship there. But not in Europe. Teslas will face steep tariffs in the EU as retaliation inevitably happens.
The question for the UK more widely is: are we going to continue to try to suck up to the US under Trump; or side with our allies in Europe? Or try to stay neutral?
And if Starmer wants reproachment short of rejoining, the EU's door just flung wide open to him.
I think the Trump fanbois are going to be rather frustrated by Starmer's response to Trump. It won't be their simpering servitude.
If it really does kick off I can see us sheltering with Europe.
Looking forward to Nigel HawHaw's letters from America.
Since 1941 the interests and the values of the US and the UK have been aligned based on the agreed principles of the Atlantic Charter. Those values included, but were not limited to, the value of a peaceful democratic order and a just, rules-based system of security and trade.
Trump, like his backers seems to believe that these principles are not universal and have outlived their usefulness. Instead of multilateral agreements, they argue for a more direct, unilateral approach with the immediate interests of the United States a priority at all times. It is no good arguing that the altruism of post war America allowed the recovery of (western) Europe and the emergence of a mutually enriching trade. This point of view believes that the goodwill of the US has been exploited by enemies (China) and allies (the EU) alike.
The mealy-mouthed compromises which have been the foundation of globalisation are themselves seen as morally weak and in any event led to the wholesale off-shoring of jobs and large parts of the Western economy to Asia. Again, there is no point in arguing for Ricardo´s comparative advantage when you see once prosperous factories closed and the urban blight of drugs and vice replacing it.
As for the special pleading for minorities, racial and sexual, this infuriates large numbers of straight white voters who feel that affirmative action has replaced one injustice with another, and who remain, at best, uncomfortable with the reality of gay rights activists who seem to be pushing for acceptance of ever less acceptable, even "degenerate" groups at a time when birthrates have collapsed and the demographic survival of some places seems doubtful. Abortion rights are also involved in this world view too and are not positive.
Trump and the radical right offers clear and simple solutions. That these solutions in many cases seem at best questionable, at worse dangerous and potentially authoritarian does not bother the MAGA world view at all.
The rise of general authoritarianism is a clear global trend. Today Trump, in two years time, perhaps, Le Pen. As for the UK, it doesn´t matter, our withdrawal from the EU commits us to the United States, no matter that the values of the US and the UK have always differed and may now be misaligned. The decisive power of the United States is now over, it is one amongst many. If you no longer trust the fairness of the US, China doesn´t look so bad an alternative. Europe can only be a force if Russia is defeated and then brought into the EU state system, which is now very much not the wish of the USA.
Farage offers us the Trumpian future. Those of us who still believe in a fundamental justice will need to answer this defeat. Can Britain overcome our own crisis? Can we realign? This is now a fundamental state challenge for the UK, and not just from the centre and left of our political system.
Project 2025 is coming. What is our response? What choices, if any, do we have?
"If you no longer trust the fairness of the US, China doesn´t look so bad an alternative."
You can't really believe this.
"Those of us who still believe in a fundamental justice will need to answer this defeat."
What do you mean by "a fundamental justice" as opposed to just "fundamental justice"?
That anecdote “he didn’t start any wars” is one of these interesting things that I thought meant nothing at the time but I wonder if it reflects more what people were voting for as opposed to against.
Morning all.
Yes, I noticed this online a lot. There was a large online constituency who thought Trump represented an antu-war vote.
And not without reason
Would Putin have invaded Ukraine with Trump as POTUS? It is at least arguable he would not have risked it
I can also see Trump putting the screws on Netanyahu to end his wars, just because that will make Trump look good (in a way Biden/Harris would never do)
He happily sent chemical assassins to Salisbury during Trump's term. Neither Trump nor Biden really acted as much of a deterrent to someone who'd got away with invasions under both Bush and Obama.
At least Trump's victory seems clear and afaik undisputed.
So he doesn't need to undermine democracy this time - my guess is he'll probably leave it alone and focus on other things as he won't be facing the voters in 2028.
So that's a silver lining in a rather dark cloud anyway.
I'm slightly in shock that opponents of Trump have conducted themselves so poorly as to allow him to win again. A really extraordinary failure.
It’s doubly odd that they found a way to win in 2020 and didn’t manage to do it again.
But as I said above, I do wonder if this election was genuinely unwinnable for them whatever happened.
They didn't really, they got lucky that the election happened to coincide with a pandemic that Trump handled disastrously. Even then he barely lost.
But that’s the point isn’t it? Covid was handled here disastrously if you take Partygate. But fundamentally the Tories got thrown out because of the economy.
Starmer needs to do something on the economy or he’s out.
Not really the same comparison as there was no GE here in the immediate post-COVID aftermath. And Partygate was a very different "failure" than what happened in the US where Trump promoted quack treatments and denied the seriousness of the disease
But the Tories lost? The main reason they lost here IMHO is that after many years people felt the country had not improved for them, I.e. the economy was not working.
To me that’s why people have rolled the dice with Trump again?
I suspect you are right in that respect. The most powerful Trump ad I saw was one that listed some basic food staples and how much they cost under Trump and the cost under Biden.
Very effective I thought.
Having done long trips three times now, it certainly is very noticeable how much more expensive everything is there now. The economy seemed to be buzzing, but it’s mostly the already rich who are benefitting. The mystery is why ordinary workers think Trump is going to help them, rather than his superrich buddies, any more than he did last time.
Credit to Elon Musk. He went All In on Trump. And will now make a gazillion dollars.
Yes. He made a huge call. And yet again it’s paid off
Elon has tremendous power now. Maybe he will use it to save us from Starmer. We can only hope
How does he do that in the short term i.e. within almost five years? Get Trump to point the nukes at Blighty and demand Nigel is installed as Governor General or he will shoot.
You've come back more bonkers than when you left.
Yes, that bit's ridiculous. But probably just Leon doing his piss taking bit.
The point that right wing billionaires - not just Musk, but some of Vance's backers - are going to have remarkable influence on the administration is absolutely correct.
I read @Leon 's comment to mean Starmer will only be one term. That seems likely now as he will get the blame in 2028 for the coming economic storm from US.
I was clearly joking as @Nigelb noted. I don’t believe Musk will “overthrow” the British PM
However I do believe Musk has now has unexampled power, the most important non politician in America and the world, and now untouchable (probably forever)
I also believe this Trump victory is terrible for Labour, for so many reasons, and makes their defeat in 2028-29 near certain
From a betting point of view, I unnecessarily hedged my Trump bet last night, when it still looked like a Harris victory was possible.
Will Trump be good for the US? Not if he fulfills on tariffs. Mass deportations: my feeling is these will be underwhelming given logistical and legal obstacles.
Rewarding Putin for his aggression will have little immediate negative impact for US.
At least Trump's victory seems clear and afaik undisputed.
So he doesn't need to undermine democracy this time - my guess is he'll probably leave it alone and focus on other things as he won't be facing the voters in 2028.
So that's a silver lining in a rather dark cloud anyway.
There's no way they will get in out of the Oval Office now except when he passes away. That's my prediction FWIW.
If there is an election in 2028 it will be rigged beyond words.
At least Trump's victory seems clear and afaik undisputed.
So he doesn't need to undermine democracy this time - my guess is he'll probably leave it alone and focus on other things as he won't be facing the voters in 2028.
So that's a silver lining in a rather dark cloud anyway.
That is wishful thinking .... the US will never get rid of him. Hence the worry... "You won't have to vote again" as he said.
Credit to Elon Musk. He went All In on Trump. And will now make a gazillion dollars.
You're thinking of Jeff Bezos who stopped the papers endorsing Kamala and presumably has rescued his Blue Origin contracts and protected Amazon from monopoly charges.
The danger for Elon Musk is that Trump's tariffs screw up Tesla's supply chains and possibly his foreign markets too if there is retaliation.
Tesla has factories in China and the EU, he won't have a problem really.
Everyone, and I mean everyone, needs a massive dose of humble pie and to revist all their assumptions.
All of them.
Trump won a majority of the vote. He got massive swings amongst constituencies that are meant to hate him and it was nearly a landslide in the EC.
There's some serious introspection needed and difficult questions to be asked.
Why is a dose of humble pie needed? I thought the result would be close, the result looks to be close. Most people here thought the result would be close. We were all right.
It's not close, he's heading for a similarly sized victory as Biden on 2020.
… which was fairly close.
In 1992, Clinton won 370 to 168 in the EC. In 1996, he did even better. Obama won 365 to 173, and then 332 to 206. Those victories were not close.
Since 1941 the interests and the values of the US and the UK have been aligned based on the agreed principles of the Atlantic Charter. Those values included, but were not limited to, the value of a peaceful democratic order and a just, rules-based system of security and trade.
Trump, like his backers seems to believe that these principles are not universal and have outlived their usefulness. Instead of multilateral agreements, they argue for a more direct, unilateral approach with the immediate interests of the United States a priority at all times. It is no good arguing that the altruism of post war America allowed the recovery of (western) Europe and the emergence of a mutually enriching trade. This point of view believes that the goodwill of the US has been exploited by enemies (China) and allies (the EU) alike.
The mealy-mouthed compromises which have been the foundation of globalisation are themselves seen as morally weak and in any event led to the wholesale off-shoring of jobs and large parts of the Western economy to Asia. Again, there is no point in arguing for Ricardo´s comparative advantage when you see once prosperous factories closed and the urban blight of drugs and vice replacing it.
As for the special pleading for minorities, racial and sexual, this infuriates large numbers of straight white voters who feel that affirmative action has replaced one injustice with another, and who remain, at best, uncomfortable with the reality of gay rights activists who seem to be pushing for acceptance of ever less acceptable, even "degenerate" groups at a time when birthrates have collapsed and the demographic survival of some places seems doubtful. Abortion rights are also involved in this world view too and are not positive.
Trump and the radical right offers clear and simple solutions. That these solutions in many cases seem at best questionable, at worse dangerous and potentially authoritarian does not bother the MAGA world view at all.
The rise of general authoritarianism is a clear global trend. Today Trump, in two years time, perhaps, Le Pen. As for the UK, it doesn´t matter, our withdrawal from the EU commits us to the United States, no matter that the values of the US and the UK have always differed and may now be misaligned. The decisive power of the United States is now over, it is one amongst many. If you no longer trust the fairness of the US, China doesn´t look so bad an alternative. Europe can only be a force if Russia is defeated and then brought into the EU state system, which is now very much not the wish of the USA.
Farage offers us the Trumpian future. Those of us who still believe in a fundamental justice will need to answer this defeat. Can Britain overcome our own crisis? Can we realign? This is now a fundamental state challenge for the UK, and not just from the centre and left of our political system.
Project 2025 is coming. What is our response? What choices, if any, do we have?
"If you no longer trust the fairness of the US, China doesn´t look so bad an alternative."
You can't really believe this.
"Those of us who still believe in a fundamental justice will need to answer this defeat."
What do you mean by "a fundamental justice" as opposed to just "fundamental justice"?
It's a very long example of Trump derangement syndrome.
That anecdote “he didn’t start any wars” is one of these interesting things that I thought meant nothing at the time but I wonder if it reflects more what people were voting for as opposed to against.
I think we do have to look at his claims he would stop WWIII as a factor. There are a lot of us who believe he’ll make the world a more dangerous place in the medium term, but for a lot of Americans they will look at Ukraine and the ME and be genuinely concerned. Then you’ve got a guy selling fairy dust who is going to disentangle you from it all and keep you safe.
Of course there has been a major strand of isolationism in the US and that might be a factor. If anyone thinks that disengaging from world affairs means you aren’t going to be impacted by them is an idiot. Sure you can ignore reality if you wish but it’s still going to mug you.
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
Vance is smart. I reckon he’d be a good president
Vance's immediate problem is not falling out with Trump as so many did 2016-20.
I totally get why they voted for Trump first time round. Many, many people failed/ignored by the state and wanting to roll the dice. Like us with Brexit. What I can't understand is, having seen Trump in action as president, how the US could vote for him again.
If we're torturing the Brexit analogy, then this is perhaps December 2019. The populist right had two big successes here after all, 2016 and 2019, the second happening after the government's poor preparation for Brexit had become abundantly clear.
I'm slightly in shock that opponents of Trump have conducted themselves so poorly as to allow him to win again. A really extraordinary failure.
It’s doubly odd that they found a way to win in 2020 and didn’t manage to do it again.
But as I said above, I do wonder if this election was genuinely unwinnable for them whatever happened.
They didn't really, they got lucky that the election happened to coincide with a pandemic that Trump handled disastrously. Even then he barely lost.
But that’s the point isn’t it? Covid was handled here disastrously if you take Partygate. But fundamentally the Tories got thrown out because of the economy.
Starmer needs to do something on the economy or he’s out.
Not really the same comparison as there was no GE here in the immediate post-COVID aftermath. And Partygate was a very different "failure" than what happened in the US where Trump promoted quack treatments and denied the seriousness of the disease
But the Tories lost? The main reason they lost here IMHO is that after many years people felt the country had not improved for them, I.e. the economy was not working.
To me that’s why people have rolled the dice with Trump again?
I suspect you are right in that respect. The most powerful Trump ad I saw was one that listed some basic food staples and how much they cost under Trump and the cost under Biden.
Very effective I thought.
Having done long trips three times now, it certainly is very noticeable how much more expensive everything is there now. The economy seemed to be buzzing, but it’s mostly the already rich who are benefitting. The mystery is why ordinary workers think Trump is going to help them, rather than his superrich buddies, any more than he did last time.
Alot of the inflation they had was due to policies put in place at the time of Covid, similar to ours, however people will turn to Trump if they don't think the incumbents will help them.
I don't think Harris had any counter to the messages about inflation aside from flirting with price controls which was always a stupid idea.
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
When I spoke to OGH last month it was the prospect of Vance becoming POTUS that scared OGH the most about a Trump victory.
I tried to reassure OGH that Vance has impeccable judgment because he previously called Trump America's Hitler.
That was then.
One of the things that bothers me is that plenty of people associated with Trump or the Republican party have pointed out the whole "danger to democracy" thing, but hardly anybody currently active or with ambitions for the future.
What was that David Low cartoon? They salute with both hands now?
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
Since 1941 the interests and the values of the US and the UK have been aligned based on the agreed principles of the Atlantic Charter. Those values included, but were not limited to, the value of a peaceful democratic order and a just, rules-based system of security and trade.
Trump, like his backers seems to believe that these principles are not universal and have outlived their usefulness. Instead of multilateral agreements, they argue for a more direct, unilateral approach with the immediate interests of the United States a priority at all times. It is no good arguing that the altruism of post war America allowed the recovery of (western) Europe and the emergence of a mutually enriching trade. This point of view believes that the goodwill of the US has been exploited by enemies (China) and allies (the EU) alike.
The mealy-mouthed compromises which have been the foundation of globalisation are themselves seen as morally weak and in any event led to the wholesale off-shoring of jobs and large parts of the Western economy to Asia. Again, there is no point in arguing for Ricardo´s comparative advantage when you see once prosperous factories closed and the urban blight of drugs and vice replacing it.
As for the special pleading for minorities, racial and sexual, this infuriates large numbers of straight white voters who feel that affirmative action has replaced one injustice with another, and who remain, at best, uncomfortable with the reality of gay rights activists who seem to be pushing for acceptance of ever less acceptable, even "degenerate" groups at a time when birthrates have collapsed and the demographic survival of some places seems doubtful. Abortion rights are also involved in this world view too and are not positive.
Trump and the radical right offers clear and simple solutions. That these solutions in many cases seem at best questionable, at worse dangerous and potentially authoritarian does not bother the MAGA world view at all.
The rise of general authoritarianism is a clear global trend. Today Trump, in two years time, perhaps, Le Pen. As for the UK, it doesn´t matter, our withdrawal from the EU commits us to the United States, no matter that the values of the US and the UK have always differed and may now be misaligned. The decisive power of the United States is now over, it is one amongst many. If you no longer trust the fairness of the US, China doesn´t look so bad an alternative. Europe can only be a force if Russia is defeated and then brought into the EU state system, which is now very much not the wish of the USA.
Farage offers us the Trumpian future. Those of us who still believe in a fundamental justice will need to answer this defeat. Can Britain overcome our own crisis? Can we realign? This is now a fundamental state challenge for the UK, and not just from the centre and left of our political system.
Project 2025 is coming. What is our response? What choices, if any, do we have?
"If you no longer trust the fairness of the US, China doesn´t look so bad an alternative."
You can't really believe this.
"Those of us who still believe in a fundamental justice will need to answer this defeat."
What do you mean by "a fundamental justice" as opposed to just "fundamental justice"?
1. I'm thinking more of the global south and 2, obeying the rules
It's shocking to me that JD Vance is one heart attack away from being POTUS in s few months. At least last time Pence was actually an experienced politician despite not agreeing with much of his policy he wouldn't have been completely terrible.
When I spoke to OGH last month it was the prospect of Vance becoming POTUS that scared OGH the most about a Trump victory.
I tried to reassure OGH that Vance has impeccable judgment because he previously called Trump America's Hitler.
Vance = Von Papen. Thinks the guy is a fascist, but decided he can work with him because the other lot are worse and he'll be able to pull the strings behind the throne.
That anecdote “he didn’t start any wars” is one of these interesting things that I thought meant nothing at the time but I wonder if it reflects more what people were voting for as opposed to against.
A lot of what Trump represents is indeed consistent with the long-term traditions of US geopolitics before the Cold War. That is, military isolationism and a focus on its own hemisphere, coupled with trade protectionism.
The US economy grew rapidly in the late 19th and early 20th century but it was always behind a significant tariff barrier. Customs duties into the US were consistently much higher than the European powers, and way behind the global leader in free trade, the UK.
Its avoidance of the costly wars on the European continent and Asian margins from the Franco-Prussian war through the Russo-Japanese war until the final throes of WW1 gave it a huge economic advantage. It then returned to the old policies of tariff barriers and military neutrality in the 1930s until Pearl Harbor. It was only in the post-WW2 period that it entered what might now seem like an aberration - a period of interventionism and trade liberalisation.
It can do this because it has a perfectly protected strategic position - it dominates its own continent - and a rich agricultural and industrial heartland with its own domestic energy sources, that benefits from economies of scale. It could survive perfectly well, albeit probably losing relative economic and geopolitical clout, even if it embraced full-on autarky and neutrality.
A lot of what Trump represents is consistent with long-term traditions of US domestic politics too, like being racist and blaming immigrants.
Credit to Elon Musk. He went All In on Trump. And will now make a gazillion dollars.
Yes. He made a huge call. And yet again it’s paid off
Elon has tremendous power now. Maybe he will use it to save us from Starmer. We can only hope
How does he do that in the short term i.e. within almost five years? Get Trump to point the nukes at Blighty and demand Nigel is installed as Governor General or he will shoot.
You've come back more bonkers than when you left.
Yes, that bit's ridiculous. But probably just Leon doing his piss taking bit.
The point that right wing billionaires - not just Musk, but some of Vance's backers - are going to have remarkable influence on the administration is absolutely correct.
I read @Leon 's comment to mean Starmer will only be one term. That seems likely now as he will get the blame in 2028 for the coming economic storm from US.
I was clearly joking as @Nigelb noted. I don’t believe Musk will “overthrow” the British PM
However I do believe Musk has now has unexampled power, the most important non politician in America and the world, and now untouchable (probably forever)
I also believe this Trump victory is terrible for Labour, for so many reasons, and makes their defeat in 2028-29 near certain
I don't know about that but certainly organising to send people over there to campaign for Harris, as opposed to people just going over as individuals to help as many did, will not go down well and was somewhat foolish.
So America has decided to give power to a guy who fomented a coup. I wonder how that worked out in 1930s Germany.
We need to understand the root causes of why people are supporting him. The Democrats have spent 10 years refusing to do that.
It's that old chestnut, the "she was asking for it wearing that short skirt" line of political analysis.
Or people are fucking bored of mass immigration and woke and being told if they are white they are evil and women are men and America (and britain) are uniquely evil and all that endless endless lefty bollocks?
For all of you bewildered as to why Trump won again and so comprehensively, perhaps I can crave your indulgence and repost the link to the article I wrote for PB on the Trump phenomena back in early 2021.
Nothing really has changed since Trump's first win in 2016. Indeed in no small part because of Trump and of course because of Biden as his successor, for millions of Amernican who see themselves as MIddle Class, things have only got worse.
And the sad fact is that, just as in 2016 and 2020, there is no real prospect of a Trump presidency making it any better.
As an aside, interstimg to see what has changed since then - Trump's relationship with Twitter being the most obvious.
As I say they have abandoned democracy because of the price of eggs.
That will always be the case. At the most extreme, starving, penniless people have little interest in democracy and this is just a milder version of that. It has ever been such since the birth iof the idea of democracy.
Pythagoras may have been willing to die for his rather strange philosophical ideas but most people are not.
Credit to Elon Musk. He went All In on Trump. And will now make a gazillion dollars.
You're thinking of Jeff Bezos who stopped the papers endorsing Kamala and presumably has rescued his Blue Origin contracts and protected Amazon from monopoly charges.
The danger for Elon Musk is that Trump's tariffs screw up Tesla's supply chains and possibly his foreign markets too if there is retaliation.
Trump is heavily focused on automation and the US version of what automation is required. He's now making his own batteries in the US as well which is important. I can imagine that Tesla Shanghai would be in trouble, but then again as the Lord Elon is now going to be in charge of Government Efficiency perhaps he will persuade Trump that tariffs are a Bad Idea.
So America has decided to give power to a guy who fomented a coup. I wonder how that worked out in 1930s Germany.
We need to understand the root causes of why people are supporting him. The Democrats have spent 10 years refusing to do that.
It's that old chestnut, the "she was asking for it wearing that short skirt" line of political analysis.
Or people are fucking bored of mass immigration and woke and being told if they are white they are evil and women are men and America (and britain) are uniquely evil and all that endless endless lefty bollocks?
It is cost of living in the US which has elected Trump again and looks to have given the GOP control of Congress.
However the massive tariffs Trump and the GOP will impose from January will start the biggest global trade war in 100 years so not sure if that cost of living is going to get much better for the average American as a result
Latest counts have Democrats falling short in the House too. Currently leading in only 216 districts of the 218 needed.
Who had GOP winning the trifecta in their book?
The House will be completely ungovernable again though with Johnson having to try and keep both the ultra right faction and the swing district centrists happy
Comments
Trump on Verge of Victory With Swing State Wins
Not for the first time!
Would Putin have invaded Ukraine with Trump as POTUS? It is at least arguable he would not have risked it
I can also see Trump putting the screws on Netanyahu to end his wars, just because that will make Trump look good (in a way Biden/Harris would never do)
People thought, "yes, this guy's a lying clown, but the alternative is going to wreck the country".
That's harsh on both Johnson and Harris, of course!
Though, with the news yesterday that public spending is up 13% this year it perhaps isn't that surprising. If a government has the cash (temporarily) it can buy votes.
I might have to listen to Rory Stewart's podcast. Sounds like fun for those whose lives he made hell up here.
J.L. Partners 🇺🇸
@J_L_Partners
·
36m
Politico Playbook: J.L. Partners /
@DailyMail
model and election forecast was the most accurate in the country.
https://x.com/JohnRentoul?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
So for all the talk of Musk winning - yes he will in the US, as Trump will see a symbiotic relationship there. But not in Europe. Teslas will face steep tariffs in the EU as retaliation inevitably happens.
The question for the UK more widely is: are we going to continue to try to suck up to the US under Trump; or side with our allies in Europe? Or try to stay neutral?
And if Starmer wants reproachment short of rejoining, the EU's door just flung wide open to him.
The US economy grew rapidly in the late 19th and early 20th century but it was always behind a significant tariff barrier. Customs duties into the US were consistently much higher than the European powers, and way behind the global leader in free trade, the UK.
Its avoidance of the costly wars on the European continent and Asian margins from the Franco-Prussian war through the Russo-Japanese war until the final throes of WW1 gave it a huge economic advantage. It then returned to the old policies of tariff barriers and military neutrality in the 1930s until Pearl Harbor. It was only in the post-WW2 period that it entered what might now seem like an aberration - a period of interventionism and trade liberalisation.
It can do this because it has a perfectly protected strategic position - it dominates its own continent - and a rich agricultural and industrial heartland with its own domestic energy sources, that benefits from economies of scale. It could survive perfectly well, albeit probably losing relative economic and geopolitical clout, even if it embraced full-on autarky and neutrality.
The point that right wing billionaires - not just Musk, but some of Vance's backers - are going to have remarkable influence on the administration is absolutely correct.
He will not get America involved in wars, he will let Putin, Bibi and Xi do what they like. It's not America so who cares?
Now they were better off in 2016 than they were in 2020 but that requires an even longer term lens which most people won't have.
iirc he had pretty poor ratings throughout the entire presidency.
Very effective I thought.
IT’S BECAUSE MANY AMERICANS KNOW THAT TRUMP IS A CRIMINAL LOON, BUT THEY FIRMLY BELIEVE THE DEMOCRATS ARE MUCH MUCH WORSE
I tried to reassure OGH that Vance has impeccable judgment because he previously called Trump America's Hitler.
If it really does kick off I can see us sheltering with Europe.
Trump, like his backers seems to believe that these principles are not universal and have outlived their usefulness. Instead of multilateral agreements, they argue for a more direct, unilateral approach with the immediate interests of the United States a priority at all times. It is no good arguing that the altruism of post war America allowed the recovery of (western) Europe and the emergence of a mutually enriching trade. This point of view believes that the goodwill of the US has been exploited by enemies (China) and allies (the EU) alike.
The mealy-mouthed compromises which have been the foundation of globalisation are themselves seen as morally weak and in any event led to the wholesale off-shoring of jobs and large parts of the Western economy to Asia. Again, there is no point in arguing for Ricardo´s comparative advantage when you see once prosperous factories closed and the urban blight of drugs and vice replacing it.
As for the special pleading for minorities, racial and sexual, this infuriates large numbers of straight white voters who feel that affirmative action has replaced one injustice with another, and who remain, at best, uncomfortable with the reality of gay rights activists who seem to be pushing for acceptance of ever less acceptable, even "degenerate" groups at a time when birthrates have collapsed and the demographic survival of some places seems doubtful. Abortion rights are also involved in this world view too and are not positive.
Trump and the radical right offers clear and simple solutions. That these solutions in many cases seem at best questionable, at worse dangerous and potentially authoritarian does not bother the MAGA world view at all.
The rise of general authoritarianism is a clear global trend. Today Trump, in two years time, perhaps, Le Pen. As for the UK, it doesn´t matter, our withdrawal from the EU commits us to the United States, no matter that the values of the US and the UK have always differed and may now be misaligned. The decisive power of the United States is now over, it is one amongst many. If you no longer trust the fairness of the US, China doesn´t look so bad an alternative. Europe can only be a force if Russia is defeated and then brought into the EU state system, which is now very much not the wish of the USA.
Farage offers us the Trumpian future. Those of us who still believe in a fundamental justice will need to answer this defeat. Can Britain overcome our own crisis? Can we realign? This is now a fundamental state challenge for the UK, and not just from the centre and left of our political system.
Project 2025 is coming. What is our response? What choices, if any, do we have?
Your supporters are hurting, your side of the nation is quailing, show some fucking backbone and get out there and make a good speech to steady their nerves and console their sadness. Hiding away is contemptible
The danger for Elon Musk is that Trump's tariffs screw up Tesla's supply chains and possibly his foreign markets too if there is retaliation.
You can't really believe this.
"Those of us who still believe in a fundamental justice will need to answer this defeat."
What do you mean by "a fundamental justice" as opposed to just "fundamental justice"?
So he doesn't need to undermine democracy this time - my guess is he'll probably leave it alone and focus on other things as he won't be facing the voters in 2028.
So that's a silver lining in a rather dark cloud anyway.
It's at least arguable that there wasn't a good way for this to go, once Biden decided to go for renomination, in any event.
I was clearly joking as @Nigelb noted. I don’t believe Musk will “overthrow” the British PM
However I do believe Musk has now has unexampled power, the most important non politician in America and the world, and now untouchable (probably forever)
I also believe this Trump victory is terrible for Labour, for so many reasons, and makes their defeat in 2028-29 near certain
Will Trump be good for the US? Not if he fulfills on tariffs. Mass deportations: my feeling is these will be underwhelming given logistical and legal obstacles.
Rewarding Putin for his aggression will have little immediate negative impact for US.
She was a terrible candidate. The Democrats should have chosen from a field rather than deciding it was her turn so she got the gig.
If there is an election in 2028 it will be rigged beyond words.
They have made this clear, and the poor have voted for it.
In 1992, Clinton won 370 to 168 in the EC. In 1996, he did even better. Obama won 365 to 173, and then 332 to 206. Those victories were not close.
I don't think Harris had any counter to the messages about inflation aside from flirting with price controls which was always a stupid idea.
One of the things that bothers me is that plenty of people associated with Trump or the Republican party have pointed out the whole "danger to democracy" thing, but hardly anybody currently active or with ambitions for the future.
What was that David Low cartoon? They salute with both hands now?
This is their religion. This is their creed.
Pythagoras may have been willing to die for his rather strange philosophical ideas but most people are not.
https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/1854073411904938032
That's a real shame. A Dem holding out in an increasingly red state who seemed to understand why things were slipping away.
Will he run for POTUS in 2028, if there is a contest?
But flattery is probably the right tactic with Trump. After all, he is an incredible narcissist.
He's over 300,000 votes ahead in Michigan. Kamala can't possibly make that up.
It's over.
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1854076601811570883
However the massive tariffs Trump and the GOP will impose from January will start the biggest global trade war in 100 years so not sure if that cost of living is going to get much better for the average American as a result