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Ayrshire hotelier Donald Trump becomes American president again – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,157
edited November 20 in General
imageAyrshire hotelier Donald Trump becomes American president again – politicalbetting.com

Whilst the final results haven’t been confirmed as ever it is the economy, stupid, the wave that has unseated incumbent governments across the world, people seldom reward governments and parties that make them poorer. T

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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    First like Trump?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,927
    Can someone let me know when Western liberal democracy has been cancelled.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    TOPPING said:

    Can someone let me know when Western liberal democracy has been cancelled.

    January 20th 2025.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?
  • I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.

    It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.

    I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.

    And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.
  • What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    We're buggered.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,972


    It's hard to celebrate this result
  • But he has won fair and square. I can only credit him with that, I just can’t understand what has happened.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Just woken up. Ok I was badly wrong!

    Trump 2.0. Buckle up, gonna be a bonkers 4 years.
  • Excuse me. EXCUSE ME.

    You mean the ABERDEENSHIRE hotelier.

    Thank you
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,618
    Not long to 2028, the campaign starts tomorrow.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,573

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    Nothing. 70% of our exports to the US are services.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,927
    Is Trump has actually won then many on PB really need to look at their head over heart betting strategies.

    There is a roll of honour of idiots who refused to see what might actually happen. And made fools of themselves time and again on here.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    TOPPING said:

    Can someone let me know when Western liberal democracy has been cancelled.

    Fortunately the USA is not the whole of the West.

    So far on that front we have:

    - Hungary
    - Almost Poland, a near miss
    - Georgia

    (I shan't count Turkey as it was never fully democratic).

    Whether the US joins the list depends on how competent the project 2025 team are and how vigilant the remaining pillars of the US state will be.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited November 6

    Very disappointed in America but more feel very sorry for Ukrainians this morning.

    The voters have spoken. The bastards.

    Quite how Sandpit squares that circle remains to be seen. I suspect this time next year he will regret flying the orange flag.

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    It is in big trouble, alongside everyone else.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Good morning all.

    Feck.
  • What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    We're buggered.
    I keep reading posts denying that he has said the things he has repeatedly said. He has said over and over and over that he is going to smash tariffs of up to 100%.

    Why are parts of the PB in denial? Saying "and you believe this?". Yes. we believe it. And it is what America has voted for.
  • TOPPING said:

    Is Trump has actually won then many on PB really need to look at their head over heart betting strategies.

    There is a roll of honour of idiots who refused to see what might actually happen. And made fools of themselves time and again on here.

    Happy to add myself to that list. But I really, genuinely didn’t see this coming.

    Anyone who said the economy polls were bad for Biden could have predicted this time and time again. That really does never change.
  • TOPPING said:

    Is Trump has actually won then many on PB really need to look at their head over heart betting strategies.

    There is a roll of honour of idiots who refused to see what might actually happen. And made fools of themselves time and again on here.

    I am amazed and completely blind sided but as a consolation I do not bet so no loses there
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,618

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    It depends if we are stupid enough to retaliate, as the EU will.

    An advantage of Brexit is that we can choose our own path. We can choose not to do so.

    Let's see if Labour do the right thing or go for solidarity with Europe. I won't hold my breath, sadly.
    If free trade is truly superior, then this presents an opportunity for a tariff free bloc.
  • What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    Nothing. 70% of our exports to the US are services.
    "Nothing"

    Do you understand anything?
  • Excuse me. EXCUSE ME.

    You mean the ABERDEENSHIRE hotelier.

    Thank you

    Turnberry is in Ayrshire, well it was in September when I visited his hotel.
  • Excuse me. EXCUSE ME.

    You mean the ABERDEENSHIRE hotelier.

    Thank you

    Turnberry is in Ayrshire, well it was in September when I visited his hotel.
    I have a jersey with Turnberry logo but it hasn't left my wardrobe for a long time
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,573
    edited November 6

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    Nothing. 70% of our exports to the US are services.
    "Nothing"

    Do you understand anything?
    If the pound rose 10% against the dollar, would you think the UK economy was screwed? I thought we were supposed to regard the fall in the pound as a disaster.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    It depends if we are stupid enough to retaliate, as the EU will.

    An advantage of Brexit is that we can choose our own path. We can choose not to do so.

    Let's see if Labour do the right thing or go for solidarity with Europe. I won't hold my breath, sadly.
    Non-retaliation in trade war is like non-retaliation in real war, especially when dealing with someone like Trump. It'll just embolden him to go further just like every concession to Russia emboldens Putin.

    Trade retaliation is an art, and can be quite fun. The key is to make it as painful as possible for the other side while limiting the pain for your own side. Things your own population don't particularly need to buy, but which your opponent really needs to sell. Trump has already made a mistake in that direction, promising flat tariffs on everything. It means he hurts American consumers and component importers, rather than following the usual playbook of hiking duties on things like Scotch whisky, French couture or Italian leather goods.
  • Excuse me. EXCUSE ME.

    You mean the ABERDEENSHIRE hotelier.

    Thank you

    Turnberry is in Ayrshire, well it was in September when I visited his hotel.
    Turnberry does't count. I'm talking about Balmedie

    https://www.trumpgolfscotland.com
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261

    I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.

    It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.

    I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.

    And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.

    I guess Kamala must have been a really, really crap candidate.

    And that's before we get on to what the Dems have been up to, covering up for Bidens senility for years...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.

    It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.

    I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.

    And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.

    And hopefully a useful lesson not to go staking your life on stuff!? I’ll be down on the night but in my case it was only a bit of money.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,031
    rcs1000 said:

    Very disappointed in America but more feel very sorry for Ukrainians this morning.

    The voters have spoken. The bastards.

    Like you, my main concern is with the Ukrainians.

    I hope the UK government steps up.
    If you are waiting for Starmer to show vision and leadership you will almost certainly be hugely disappointed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,381
    Everyone, and I mean everyone, needs a massive dose of humble pie and to revist all their assumptions.

    All of them.

    Trump won a majority of the vote. He got massive swings amongst constituencies that are meant to hate him and it was nearly a landslide in the EC.

    There's some serious introspection needed and difficult questions to be asked.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,075
    edited November 6
    Depressing news this morning.

    One thing that is still uncertain is the House. Decision Desk has 65% chance GOP. A clean sweep of all four major arms of government (with the Supreme Court already captured) would make the next two years even more dangerous than they would otherwise be.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,681
    The end of democracy in America and I have lost money.
  • Trump live
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,219
    TOPPING said:

    Is Trump has actually won then many on PB really need to look at their head over heart betting strategies.

    There is a roll of honour of idiots who refused to see what might actually happen. And made fools of themselves time and again on here.

    They really really did
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,618
    edited November 6

    TOPPING said:

    Is Trump has actually won then many on PB really need to look at their head over heart betting strategies.

    There is a roll of honour of idiots who refused to see what might actually happen. And made fools of themselves time and again on here.

    I am amazed and completely blind sided but as a consolation I do not bet so no loses there
    Welcome to the world of left of centre politics. To win, the left need to be so far ahead that come election day it can crawl over the line. Harris was never ahead. Never had the hopes change vision and never created the broad enthusiasm of Obama or Biden.

    The writing has been on the wall for weeks. I thought the EC would be closer, but Trump seemed to have the initiative for some time.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    TOPPING said:

    Is Trump has actually won then many on PB really need to look at their head over heart betting strategies.

    There is a roll of honour of idiots who refused to see what might actually happen. And made fools of themselves time and again on here.

    They're still doing it this morning!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,681
    Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Very disappointed in America but more feel very sorry for Ukrainians this morning.

    The voters have spoken. The bastards.

    Like you, my main concern is with the Ukrainians.

    I hope the UK government steps up.
    If you are waiting for Starmer to show vision and leadership you will almost certainly be hugely disappointed.
    Even if he does, we don't have the weapons and $ to scale that Biden was delivering.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409

    Excuse me. EXCUSE ME.

    You mean the ABERDEENSHIRE hotelier.

    Thank you

    There's a Trump property in Ayrshire isn't there?
  • IanB2 said:

    I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.

    It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.

    I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.

    And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.

    And hopefully a useful lesson not to go staking your life on stuff!? I’ll be down on the night but in my case it was only a bit of money.
    Luckily I didn’t actually bet any money. I don’t bet on anything but UK elections these days because even though I was very confident I never feel like I understand the US enough to put money down.

    Anyway, lesson learned. I’m still thoroughly depressed, though.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    So America has decided to give power to a guy who fomented a coup. I wonder how that worked out in 1930s Germany.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Excuse me. EXCUSE ME.

    You mean the ABERDEENSHIRE hotelier.

    Thank you

    Turnberry is in Ayrshire, well it was in September when I visited his hotel.
    At the end of a long single track road, as I recall. Or it was, the way I went.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,075
    Ratters said:

    Depressing news this morning.

    One thing that is still uncertain is the House. Decision Desk has 65% chance GOP. A clean sweep of all four major arms of government (with the Supreme Court already captured) would make the next two years even more dangerous than they would otherwise be.

    I say this but Betfair has it down at 1.2 odds for Republicans. Extra depressing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    edited November 6

    Everyone, and I mean everyone, needs a massive dose of humble pie and to revist all their assumptions.

    All of them.

    Trump won a majority of the vote. He got massive swings amongst constituencies that are meant to hate him and it was nearly a landslide in the EC.

    There's some serious introspection needed and difficult questions to be asked.

    I've been heading my bets lol...

    I did go on record and says the Joe Rogan podcast could an potentially pivotal roll of the dice...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,579
    GIN1138 said:

    I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.

    It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.

    I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.

    And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.

    I guess Kamala must have been a really, really crap candidate.

    And that's before we get on to what the Dems have been up to, covering up for Bidens senility for years...
    I think Kamala ran a good campaign with only a few hiccups. But she can't hide being a woman.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,946
    Trumpy deciding whether or not to fellate the mic.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,763
    GIN1138 said:

    I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.

    It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.

    I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.

    And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.

    I guess Kamala must have been a really, really crap candidate.

    And that's before we get on to what the Dems have been up to, covering up for Bidens senility for years...
    Yes, that's it exactly. Fear of a Harris presidency outweighed fear of a Trump presidency. We were shielded in the UK from just how negatively she was seen and how extremist she was perceived to be.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409
    ToryJim said:

    So America has decided to give power to a guy who fomented a coup. I wonder how that worked out in 1930s Germany.

    You don't foment a coup. Hence it not being one.
  • Cookie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.

    It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.

    I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.

    And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.

    I guess Kamala must have been a really, really crap candidate.

    And that's before we get on to what the Dems have been up to, covering up for Bidens senility for years...
    Yes, that's it exactly. Fear of a Harris presidency outweighed fear of a Trump presidency. We were shielded in the UK from just how negatively she was seen and how extremist she was perceived to be.
    How was she perceived?
  • Excuse me. EXCUSE ME.

    You mean the ABERDEENSHIRE hotelier.

    Thank you

    There's a Trump property in Ayrshire isn't there?
    My biting sarcasm went over everyone's heads. Thats ok
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,381
    Can @TheScreamingEagles never go on fucking holiday ever again, please?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,336

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    We're buggered.
    I keep reading posts denying that he has said the things he has repeatedly said. He has said over and over and over that he is going to smash tariffs of up to 100%.

    Why are parts of the PB in denial? Saying "and you believe this?". Yes. we believe it. And it is what America has voted for.
    The thing is one of the things that Trump is, is a blowhard. He said he was going to lock Clinton up. It was almost half his election campaign in 2016. It didn't happen.

    Maybe the tariffs will happen. Maybe they won't. I think it would be foolish to assume that they won't, but, equally, Trump isn't exactly a man of his word is he?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    ….
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537

    Cookie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.

    It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.

    I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.

    And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.

    I guess Kamala must have been a really, really crap candidate.

    And that's before we get on to what the Dems have been up to, covering up for Bidens senility for years...
    Yes, that's it exactly. Fear of a Harris presidency outweighed fear of a Trump presidency. We were shielded in the UK from just how negatively she was seen and how extremist she was perceived to be.
    How was she perceived?
    A lot of Americans seemed to be annoyed by the fact she laughed a lot. I couldn't see a problem with it myself.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,274

    But he has won fair and square. I can only credit him with that, I just can’t understand what has happened.

    You’re not the only one .

    Part of the reason showed up in the polls . Some voters dislike his manner but like his policies , some think when he says terrible things he’s not really being serious and won’t carry them out .

    Well they’re about to find out . The deportations will fxck farming and hospitality , tariffs will feed inflation and his pal Musk wants to gut the budget . It’s funny how Musks “ there might be hardship” got so little coverage .

    Oh and to top it all JFK jnr will oversea health and turn the USA back into polio and measles infested developing country .

    So for those turkeys who voted for Christmas, enjoy ! The US media have their role in all this , the sane washing was jaw dropping at times and as for Merrick Garland , he delayed the cases against Trump for so long that he was able to kick them past the election .

    So yes the US voters have spoken . Trump has his mandate , no ones arguing that he doesn’t .

    Let us rejoice in the UK that no matter how bad things get it will never be as bad as the USA, that there are still red lines a politician can’t cross .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,946

    Excuse me. EXCUSE ME.

    You mean the ABERDEENSHIRE hotelier.

    Thank you

    There's a Trump property in Ayrshire isn't there?
    He’s an Aberdeenshire AND Ayrshire hotelier.

    But also a son of Tong, Isle of Lewis unfortunately.
  • What concerns me is still Trump’s obvious mental decline. It was fair to criticise Biden but surely Trump is as bad. And he’s now starting off four years.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,681
    There's gonna be one hell of a lot of buyer's remorse in, say, a year or so's time.
  • JameiJamei Posts: 59
    Just put all my NC winnings on Trump to take Arizona at 1.06, which will tie up my money and prevent me making any rash bets this morning.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,681
    Andy_JS said:

    ToryJim said:

    So America has decided to give power to a guy who fomented a coup. I wonder how that worked out in 1930s Germany.

    We need to understand the root causes of why people are supporting him. The Democrats have spent 10 years refusing to do that.
    They ended their democracy because of the price of eggs.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,573

    What concerns me is still Trump’s obvious mental decline. It was fair to criticise Biden but surely Trump is as bad. And he’s now starting off four years.

    Do you think Biden could have managed the campaign schedule that Trump has just pulled off?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,219
    Cookie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.

    It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.

    I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.

    And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.

    I guess Kamala must have been a really, really crap candidate.

    And that's before we get on to what the Dems have been up to, covering up for Bidens senility for years...
    Yes, that's it exactly. Fear of a Harris presidency outweighed fear of a Trump presidency. We were shielded in the UK from just how negatively she was seen and how extremist she was perceived to be.
    I did my best to tell PB - that in the USA I kept meeting intelligent people who told me “yeah, Trump is a lying criminal but the democrats are WORSE”

    Hence, today. But PB wasn’t minded to listen
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,786
    One thing I got wrong is that I thought it would be seriously close. Its not. Trump has Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin. Like the incumbent government here the blue wall has collapsed entirely. I was always unsure whether picking Walz over Shapiro was a good idea but against that background it almost certainly does not matter.

    I thought Harris fought an exceptional campaign. That didn't matter either. Bidenomics has delivered for the US better than the economic policies of any western government. Not enough. Media, and in particular Fox and X, have persuaded the majority that they were in dire straits when they were not. That they were in a crime wave when they were not.

    Trump will now double down on the right wing majority in the SC for a generation. The Federal cases against him for keeping secrets in his bathroom and causing a riot on Jan 6th will vanish. Women's freedom will continue to be severely curtailed. Gilead approaches. Grim. Really grim. Mainly for the people of America but we will have the backwash.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Well, I read the tealeaves their completely wrong, mea culpa.

    I honestly did not think they would vote in sufficient numbers to go back. It doesn’t matter what motivated it, but we and the rest of the world will have to deal with it.

    I will say that I stand by my belief that Harris ran a very good campaign. She did nothing wrong. From a standing start she ran an inclusive positive campaign.

    The country just preferred Trump, and all that comes with him. The climate denial, the lack of respect for the natural world, the disavowal of American leadership, the trade wars and all the rest of Project 2025.

    I fear for the US. I can only hope that there is sufficient commitment to democracy and rule of law in the rest of the Republican party that we can survive the mess to come.
  • Andy_JS said:

    ToryJim said:

    So America has decided to give power to a guy who fomented a coup. I wonder how that worked out in 1930s Germany.

    We need to understand the root causes of why people are supporting him. The Democrats have spent 10 years refusing to do that.
    There are definitely things you can learn, I can learn.

    But to be fair, if somebody has done terrible things as Trump has, how do you deal with that? He staged a coup in the Capitol. There’s no “deal with that”. It’s wrong.

    The problem is that the rules do not apply to him. And I am really not convinced anymore that there is a way to deal with that.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 492

    TOPPING said:

    Is Trump has actually won then many on PB really need to look at their head over heart betting strategies.

    There is a roll of honour of idiots who refused to see what might actually happen. And made fools of themselves time and again on here.

    I am amazed and completely blind sided but as a consolation I do not bet so no loses there

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    We're buggered.

    I keep reading posts denying that he has said the things he has repeatedly said. He has said over and over and over that he is going to smash tariffs of up to 100%.

    Why are parts of the PB in denial? Saying "and you believe this?". Yes. we believe it. And it is what America has voted for.
    The remaining vestige of hope is that, like last time, his administration is chaotic and his rhetoric over-blown. Unfortunately there may be some organisations prepared for govt behind him this time.
    Fair play to Boris Johnson for a moment of clarity, amidst his shameless book plugging on C4, he told them they were in danger of calling it wrong. The only route for survival is to flatter the narcissistic sex abuser and hope to dissuade him from the worse decisions.
    Our thoughts should be with Ukraine, Palestinians, middle east and all US citizens who aren't advantaged, white and male.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,031

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    We're buggered.
    I keep reading posts denying that he has said the things he has repeatedly said. He has said over and over and over that he is going to smash tariffs of up to 100%.

    Why are parts of the PB in denial? Saying "and you believe this?". Yes. we believe it. And it is what America has voted for.
    The thing is one of the things that Trump is, is a blowhard. He said he was going to lock Clinton up. It was almost half his election campaign in 2016. It didn't happen.

    Maybe the tariffs will happen. Maybe they won't. I think it would be foolish to assume that they won't, but, equally, Trump isn't exactly a man of his word is he?
    I think the tariff on China probably will happen, because the President can invoke national security and get it done easily. But frankly the Chinese deserve it.

    The one on the rest of the world I'm not nearly so sure about. He might well have to get that one through the Senate, which I don't think would happen.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,635
    edited November 6
    I seriously wonder if we now should consider a Johnson comeback here.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited November 6
    ...

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    Nothing. 70% of our exports to the US are services.
    "Nothing"

    Do you understand anything?
    If the pound rose 10% against the dollar, would you think the UK economy was screwed? I thought we were supposed to regard the fall in the pound as a disaster.
    When the pound rises against a currency doesn't that make exports more expensive? Although I suppose as we import EVERYTHING...

    Asking for a friend.
    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I don’t want to sound bitter but I just cannot understand how after four years of utter chaos you’d decide to vote for this chap again.

    It seems to me to escape all logic and understanding.

    I will hold my hands up and say I got this completely wrong but I just cannot understand what’s happened. I clearly don’t understand the US at all. I don’t think I even understand young people in the US either.

    And Trump winning the popular vote! Never thought I would see that.

    I guess Kamala must have been a really, really crap candidate.

    And that's before we get on to what the Dems have been up to, covering up for Bidens senility for years...
    Yes, that's it exactly. Fear of a Harris presidency outweighed fear of a Trump presidency. We were shielded in the UK from just how negatively she was seen and how extremist she was perceived to be.
    How was she perceived?
    A lot of Americans seemed to be annoyed by the fact she laughed a lot. I couldn't see a problem with it myself.
    Far worse than multiple felony convictions and an adjudicated rape.

    She's not laughing now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,219
    Vance will win in 2028
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,092

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    We're buggered.
    Good morning everyone.

    According to the models I have seen such as they are, the economy that will suffer most will be the USA.

    In 2016, he also came in with a number of deranged notions; he was dissuaded from carrying out some of them such as withdrawal from the Paris Agreement - though he did it just before the 2020 Election 4 years later.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    Excuse me. EXCUSE ME.

    You mean the ABERDEENSHIRE hotelier.

    Thank you

    You’re welcome to him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,681

    I seriously wonder if we now should consider a Johnson comeback here.

    I've never stopped considering it.

    I'm on at 8 on BF.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    Nothing. 70% of our exports to the US are services.
    "Nothing"

    Do you understand anything?
    If the pound rose 10% against the dollar, would you think the UK economy was screwed? I thought we were supposed to regard the fall in the pound as a disaster.
    With GBP down 1.33% against the dollar, the EUR down 1.69%, JPY down 1.49% and even CHF losing 1.12%, the question is whether there are any currency safe havens on this glad, confident dawn.

    Reader, yes. Yes there is. Down a mere 0.22% to USD and up a solid 1.5% against the Euro. Any guesses which currency that might be?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Well Keir and Rachel’s budget is going to meet the cold light of reality once those tariffs get going…

    I will have to reassess my positions. I thought that the female vote and abortion were going to win it for Harris, but there were a lot of very sensible people also pointing to the anti-incumbency factor which looks to have proved decisive, as it has elsewhere. I also think that a scepticism of the polls, fuelled by GE2024 and the last couple of rounds, tempted me away from believing in the shy Trump effect.

    I’m not going to be disconsolate. I don’t think a Trump win is good for many reasons, but it also now means the West has to confront some hard realities.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,076
    Good morning, everybody.

    Well! I didn't want either of them to win, but I went to bed resigned to a Harris victory and looking for the positives in that. I checked in on PB about 3am to find it was still on knife edge but already looking as though it would go the other way. I woke up this morning to a Trump victory and have to set about looking for the positives in that.

    I hope it was a good night for you all, even if a surprising one.
  • Can @TheScreamingEagles never go on fucking holiday ever again, please?

    To be fair most of this holiday is PB related was to do with the fact that is the first presidential election I would be editing as full time editor of PB and I wanted to give PB my 100% focus.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,681
    MattW said:

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    We're buggered.
    Good morning everyone.

    According to the models I have seen such as they are, the economy that will suffer most will be the USA.

    In 2016, he also came in with a number of deranged notions; he was dissuaded from carrying out some of them such as withdrawal from the Paris Agreement - though he did it just before the 2020 Election 4 years later.
    When US economy suffers we do too.

    This morning's result makes it more likely Badenoch becomes PM imho as Starmer may very well be fighting a GE in 2028 with a terrible economic situation.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Andy_JS said:

    ToryJim said:

    So America has decided to give power to a guy who fomented a coup. I wonder how that worked out in 1930s Germany.

    We need to understand the root causes of why people are supporting him. The Democrats have spent 10 years refusing to do that.
    It's that old chestnut, the "she was asking for it wearing that short skirt" line of political analysis.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    Trump: "We want people to come into the country but they have to come in legally".

    Most voters probably agree.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,274
    Andy_JS said:

    ToryJim said:

    So America has decided to give power to a guy who fomented a coup. I wonder how that worked out in 1930s Germany.

    We need to understand the root causes of why people are supporting him. The Democrats have spent 10 years refusing to do that.
    It’s no surprise that this comes hand in hand with social media’s bigger role in all our lives . It’s also a rebellion by some men who feel their masculinity has been attacked . It’s a sort of yearning for a bygone era when the men went a hunting and the wife popped out babies .
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Spare a thought for David Lammy’s career prospects this morning….
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,339
    TOPPING said:

    Can someone let me know when Western liberal democracy has been cancelled.

    When Harris concedes, presumably.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,224
    Leon said:

    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    TimS said:

    MikeL said:

    I don't know why anyone thinks the Dems have gained the House.

    So far, Rep has gained 3 seats. Dem zero gains.

    And Rep leading in various Dem seats - 3 in PA for starters.

    It's obvious from President and Senate results that Dem will not be gaining the House.

    Indeed, on the contrary the Republicans will have a clean sweep, though probably not supermajorities. It means they can design fiscal policy how they like, and that will mean:

    - Most of the personal tax measures of the 2017 TCJA will be renewed next year.
    - The federal corporate tax rate won't rise from its current level, but there will probably be tightening up of various international tax provisions in the code
    - Spending will be cut across the board to avoid the deficit rising into the stratosphere, but the deficit will still rise close to the tropopause
    Yep, everyone needs to remember that 60 votes needed to pass legislation in the Senate.

    No doubt someone will come on here and say Reps will change the rules.

    But they won't - Senators like Romney will not do that.
    Yeah. They will. All politicians respect raw political power

    And Trump now has it in metric megatons. Remember he has survived two attempted murders (by whoever) and multiple attempted jailings - by corrupt Democrat lawyers and politicians alike. And he has still won against all that

    He’s like Jesus now. Mixed with Beowulf and Charles Martel

    Your trolling lacks your usual subtlety this morning.
    I’m not aiming for subtlety. And that wasn’t trolling

    That’s what I really think (albeit with some hyperbole - it’s me)

    Trump now has unprecedented power - more than he did in 2016. This is as much a moral victory as an electoral and political victory. They came an inch from killing him and now he is president again.
    I don't disagree (though I think invoking Beowulf was perhaps a step too far). I think I'm probably less happy about it than you, though.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    After all the pontificating, it was still the economy wot won it. A massive anti-climax, if so.

    It does show what a Mickey mouse subject that PPE is. A non-science that economics is, and as for philosophy and politics - not really subjects for adults.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,681
    That sound you can hear in the distance is Putin laughing his fucking tits off.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,946
    The pollsters had a rubbish campaign, aren’t they pretty much valueless as a predictive tool nowadays?

    Can’t speak for the US media but the BBC similarly crap: otoh this, otoh that, but too close to call, over and over again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    Vance will win in 2028

    That depends on whether the playing field remains reasonably level. We’ve just seen how difficult it is to defend as an incumbent, and VP to P through the electoral route is an exceptionally rare journey to make.

    The scenario where that becomes more credible is if he’s already President by the time 2028 comes around. Which is certainly quite possible.
  • Trump now giving a rambling old man description of the Starship launch / catch...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    What the hell is Trump rambling about? 😂
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806

    What happens to the UK economy if Trump introduces his proposed huge tariffs?

    Expect inflation
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Jonathan said:

    TOPPING said:

    Is Trump has actually won then many on PB really need to look at their head over heart betting strategies.

    There is a roll of honour of idiots who refused to see what might actually happen. And made fools of themselves time and again on here.

    I am amazed and completely blind sided but as a consolation I do not bet so no loses there
    Welcome to the world of left of centre politics. To win, the left need to be so far ahead that come election day it can crawl over the line. Harris was never ahead. Never had the hopes change vision and never created the broad enthusiasm of Obama or Biden.

    The writing has been on the wall for weeks. I thought the EC would be closer, but Trump seemed to have the initiative for some time.
    It's not even clear if sticking with Biden would have yielded a worse result
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,219
    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ToryJim said:

    So America has decided to give power to a guy who fomented a coup. I wonder how that worked out in 1930s Germany.

    We need to understand the root causes of why people are supporting him. The Democrats have spent 10 years refusing to do that.
    It's that old chestnut, the "she was asking for it wearing that short skirt" line of political analysis.
    Or people are fucking bored of mass immigration and woke and being told if they are white they are evil and women are men and America (and britain) are uniquely evil and all that endless endless lefty bollocks?
This discussion has been closed.