On the topic of dietary restrictions I sometimes wonder if there'd be a good business case for 'Christian meat', guaranteed not ritually slaughtered. Tender-hearted atheists would be welcome to buy it, too.
That reminds me of a question when I was on holiday a fortnight ago.
A muslim mum from Manchester asked me if the meat was Halal - well it's going to be because we are in a 5 star hotel in Turkey..
"Half of all food at National Trust cafes will be vegan within 2 years in a move backed by two third of members. 57,498 voted in favour and 20,111 against"
Sunday Times page 13
At least not 100% which I would not be surprised some of the woke NT wanted
How long before they have to revisit that, when piles of vegan food goes to waste and punters can't get their shepherds pie and bacon sarnies...
Yes, just ensure you eat meat when go to NT properties or cream filled scones and cakes and leave the vegan options to the vegans or don't eat there at all if none left
That's right. You make sure you do your patriotic duty against "woke", by eating something you wouldn't have wanted to eat otherwise, or vice versa, to the extent of going hungry if there's nothing non-vegan available. So long as it makes you happy.
I've been on a carnivore diet for over 12 months now and never been healthier for it.
Sorry, but I'd be more impressed if you felt you were going to sacrifice your health in the war against "woke".
I'm not anti-woke so why would I?
I'm just not interested in veganism/vegetarianism, think its not tasty, unhealthy and won't choose it. I object to others wanting to force their choices on me, but I have zero concerns whatsoever if others want to make other choices to me - that's freedom.
"Half of all food at National Trust cafes will be vegan within 2 years in a move backed by two third of members. 57,498 voted in favour and 20,111 against"
Sunday Times page 13
At least not 100% which I would not be surprised some of the woke NT wanted
How long before they have to revisit that, when piles of vegan food goes to waste and punters can't get their shepherds pie and bacon sarnies...
Yes, just ensure you eat meat when go to NT properties or cream filled scones and cakes and leave the vegan options to the vegans or don't eat there at all if none left
That's right. You make sure you do your patriotic duty against "woke", by eating something you wouldn't have wanted to eat otherwise, or vice versa, to the extent of going hungry if there's nothing non-vegan available. So long as it makes you happy.
I've been on a carnivore diet for over 12 months now and never been healthier for it.
Sorry, but I'd be more impressed if you felt you were going to sacrifice your health in the war against "woke".
I'm not anti-woke so why would I?
I'm just not interested in veganism/vegetarianism, think its not tasty, unhealthy and won't choose it. I object to others wanting to force their choices on me, but I have zero concerns whatsoever if others want to make other choices to me - that's freedom.
Can't say fairer than half and half, then?
If its half and half based on that's what people choose, I have no qualms with that.
If half the options are just making up the numbers for the sake of it then getting binned while the other half are much more popular and there's better choices not going on the menu because they're crowded out by a stupid policy, then its a stupid policy.
I'm free to think its a stupid policy and take my custom elsewhere. Went to a restaurant yesterday where there was a token vegan/vegetarian meal in each section of the menu which is probably the least popular option there but is there as a token to give vegans/vegetarians an option. Sensible way to do it given who their customers are.
Unless you undertake a systematic study of National Trust bins, I suspect you'll never know exactly how well the 50-50 policy corresponds to demand.
I would have expected that some data on relative sales of vegan/non-vegan food would have been presented for the vote on changing the mix, otherwise it would have been hard to decide which way to vote.
Why would such an operational matter be put to the membership if it wasn’t for some kind of virtue seeking?
It wasn't "put to the membership".
AGM membership motions are one way the membership get to input into policy, and this came through that route. It is asking the Trustees to move further in that direction. NT is governed by the Trustees, who consult the membership.
For anyone interested, the NT AGM booklet had the motion, supporting information, and an NT response recommending support. They are here:
First page I clicked on. Yeah, no thanks. What they are after couldn’t be clearer with the background image. Having just read through the rest. This is captured stuff. Full on.
It was put to the membership - because I vote every year to ensure that the Reform Trust muppets don't accidentally end up being elected...
I don’t know who they are, but this is full on entirely captured organisation. Look at the language, the shrillness the turn of phrase, the anxiety inducing stuff. This is what happens to notionally small c conservative institutions when they get infiltrated by activists, and those left who disagree just quietly leave them to it.
Worth noting that the whole of the Iowa State House and 1/2 of the Iowa State Senate are up next week, so there is the opportunity to repeal the new abortion law.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h If what Selzer is capturing in IA is revulsion on the part of senior women, including conservative ones, at an extreme abortion ban...it could lead one to wonder about TX, which has a similar ban, with much publicized severe consequences, and which was closer than IA in 2020.
I would laugh so hard I might burst a blood vessel if Trump loses Texas thanks to his shenanigans.
It's not really "his shenanigans" though. He doesn't personally care about the abortion issue and has moderated the Republican party's position on it.
That is an interesting point. Given the extent of his dominance over the party, even after losing last time, which feels very unusual for american politics, after seeing all the people who used to at least mildly criticise him when he was particularly crude or offensive now dare not speak a single word against him, it is easy to forget that there are other pressures within the party, and that one has been growing stronger for decades.
He might get pastors to lay hands on him and declare him sent by God, but he personally does not seem to be religiously observant, and the abortion issue is one where he has delivered what the base wanted, delivered it to term one might say, and they love him for it, but he is not the driving force.
On the topic of dietary restrictions I sometimes wonder if there'd be a good business case for 'Christian meat', guaranteed not ritually slaughtered. Tender-hearted atheists would be welcome to buy it, too.
I try to avoid halal meat. I have no qualms about eating meat, but I'd rather my meat hadn't been ritually slaughtered.
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h If what Selzer is capturing in IA is revulsion on the part of senior women, including conservative ones, at an extreme abortion ban...it could lead one to wonder about TX, which has a similar ban, with much publicized severe consequences, and which was closer than IA in 2020.
I would laugh so hard I might burst a blood vessel if Trump loses Texas thanks to his shenanigans.
Me too.
Indeed. Losing Texas would be an epic moment for the Republican Party. I suspect that it would cause a number of people to lose their minds….
It's what needs to happen if the virus of Trump cult is to be eliminated from american life.
The Trumpified GOP has to be near obliterated.
Otherwise they will just try again with Vance in 2028 if they do lose.
They aren't going to be obliterated, Emerson and TIPP who called the 2020 national popular vote almost spot on have it tied between Trump and Harris nationally never mind Texas. The GOP are also likely to win Congress regardless.
Democrats should stop fanciful notions of winning Texas, which ain't happening given the Latino swing to Trump since 2020 and focus on holding the bluewall and scraping Harris across the line with her gains with white women.
If Trump and Vance lose DeSantis is likely 2028 GOP nominee not Vance though if the GOP wanted a clear win finally nationally and in the EC they would pick Haley
On the topic of dietary restrictions I sometimes wonder if there'd be a good business case for 'Christian meat', guaranteed not ritually slaughtered. Tender-hearted atheists would be welcome to buy it, too.
I would like some 'guaranteed chased' meat, makes me feel like I've connected with my ancestral hunter-gatherer roots.
Believing it is fundamental to being an atheist to be stridently anti-religious to the point 'most' wouldn't attend a church service or even for heaven's sake carolling, would be like asserting it is fundamental to being a theist to be the most extreme example of a particular creed.
As though every Catholic is a member of the spanish inquisition or something.
Even where faith is present or absent there are ranges of behaviour people will engage in for cultural reasons or just simple manners.
Church services can be quite dangerous for atheists. They quite often get converted, or find out that the religious tradition means something to them .
One of the more interesting people I have known was someone who went to Evensong with his wife for the company in a normal "broad church" type rural parish, and his outlook changed between starting to kneel down and reaching the hassock (his own account).
He became a fairly conservative in his views, but non-confrontational 'rub along with everyone else' type, evangelical and a focus for that tradition in the parish, and hosted the church bible study group for about 20 years.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h If what Selzer is capturing in IA is revulsion on the part of senior women, including conservative ones, at an extreme abortion ban...it could lead one to wonder about TX, which has a similar ban, with much publicized severe consequences, and which was closer than IA in 2020.
If God didn't want us to eat animals, he would not have made them delicious.
I think I would question the strength of that argument.
If you are pitting animal flesh verses plants, which I guess you are, I would disagree that animals are tastier. In fact I would strongly disagree.
I mean, what do I enjoy most and what has the most flavour of anything that we eat? Spices, herbs, chilis, cheese, strawberries, mushrooms, asparagus, garlic, onions, pineapples, pizza. No animal flesh there.
Don't we use plants to cook with meats to give the latter the flavour the dish would otherwise lack?
I mean, taste is subjective, but I would say absolutely not. Love many dishes that are enhanced with other ingredients, but bacon, steak, roast chicken, game, etc. need nothing added.
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h If what Selzer is capturing in IA is revulsion on the part of senior women, including conservative ones, at an extreme abortion ban...it could lead one to wonder about TX, which has a similar ban, with much publicized severe consequences, and which was closer than IA in 2020.
Good time for a religious discussion after having just watch the Hugh Grant movie 'Heretic'.
Was it any good? The trailers looked both intriguing and suitably creepy.
It was not the sort of thing I'd see again, it's the kind of movie that is thin on plot and any revelations would make rewatching less interesting. It relies entirely on performances, and the three leads were all good.
Reminded me quite a bit of Knock at the Cabin from a few years ago (which should have kept the novel's name 'The Cabin at the End of the World')
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
Yes, it seems to be one of the most pernicious myths there is. I've had a fair bit of experience of planning decisions, and I've never seen a sniff of corruption.
Obviously it has happened - T Dan Smith, for example. But it's pretty rare.
Lyz Lenz @lyzl · 16h People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.
Lyz Lenz @lyzl · 16h 60 percent of Iowans support abortion in all or most circumstances. Many Iowans remember a time before Roe. They remember life without choice and bodily autonomy. Kim Reynolds and the Iowa republicans passed a near total abortion ban. And people are mad.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
That is true, and it's disturbing how quick people are to make such bold declarations of rampant corruption. It's horsesh*t if people have even an inkling how many people might or could be involved and so how many people you'd need to bribe to ensure the outcome you wanted.
Are there cases? Of course, no one's silly enough to say corruption does not exist, but the way things are set up it really would not be the simple or straightforward affair people casually claim it is.
It's probably yet another reason planning officers are in short supply, as it is a difficult, low paid job, and no one is ever happy with you.
(For avoidance of doubt, I am not a planning officer).
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
As the child of a former chairman of planning...
If there are brown envelopes, they are as well-constructed as many of the houses built by volume builders. All the money must have fallen out before it reached us.
One reason pollsters might be failing to pick up what Ann Selzer picked up in Iowa, is a lot of women are afraid to say they are voting for Harris.
Sharing stories yesterday after knocking doors in Pennsylvania, can't tell you the number of canvassers who had wives standing in the background while speaking to the husband and having them mouth something to the effect that they were voting for Harris. Or if they answered the door, they pretended to not say who they were voting for out loud and then whispered they were voting for Harris. It's kind of heartbreaking actually.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
Yes, it seems to be one of the most pernicious myths there is. I've had a fair bit of experience of planning decisions, and I've never seen a sniff of corruption.
Obviously it has happened - T Dan Smith, for example. But it's pretty rare.
Is it possible that attacking a large tv network, which is likely to be well watched by your target voters, is a suboptimal campaign strategy with a few days to go?
Everything he does pretty much is conventionally sub-optimal and yet here we are two days to go and its neck and neck unless Selzer is correct.
As Freedland astutely observed during the week, if it isn’t neck and neck both a solid Harris win and a solid Trump win are perfectly explainable. Both explanations are entirely credible and convincing, and foreseeable; we just don’t know in advance which explanation is the accurate one…
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h If what Selzer is capturing in IA is revulsion on the part of senior women, including conservative ones, at an extreme abortion ban...it could lead one to wonder about TX, which has a similar ban, with much publicized severe consequences, and which was closer than IA in 2020.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
Yes, it seems to be one of the most pernicious myths there is. I've had a fair bit of experience of planning decisions, and I've never seen a sniff of corruption.
Obviously it has happened - T Dan Smith, for example. But it's pretty rare.
Adopts Ronnie Corbett voice from "Know My Place" sketch.
And I'm in Ashfield.
(Where the Council Leader is up before the Beak in March.)
"Half of all food at National Trust cafes will be vegan within 2 years in a move backed by two third of members. 57,498 voted in favour and 20,111 against"
Sunday Times page 13
At least not 100% which I would not be surprised some of the woke NT wanted
How long before they have to revisit that, when piles of vegan food goes to waste and punters can't get their shepherds pie and bacon sarnies...
Yes, just ensure you eat meat when go to NT properties or cream filled scones and cakes and leave the vegan options to the vegans or don't eat there at all if none left
That's right. You make sure you do your patriotic duty against "woke", by eating something you wouldn't have wanted to eat otherwise, or vice versa, to the extent of going hungry if there's nothing non-vegan available. So long as it makes you happy.
I've been on a carnivore diet for over 12 months now and never been healthier for it.
Sorry, but I'd be more impressed if you felt you were going to sacrifice your health in the war against "woke".
I'm not anti-woke so why would I?
I'm just not interested in veganism/vegetarianism, think its not tasty, unhealthy and won't choose it. I object to others wanting to force their choices on me, but I have zero concerns whatsoever if others want to make other choices to me - that's freedom.
Can't say fairer than half and half, then?
If its half and half based on that's what people choose, I have no qualms with that.
If half the options are just making up the numbers for the sake of it then getting binned while the other half are much more popular and there's better choices not going on the menu because they're crowded out by a stupid policy, then its a stupid policy.
I'm free to think its a stupid policy and take my custom elsewhere. Went to a restaurant yesterday where there was a token vegan/vegetarian meal in each section of the menu which is probably the least popular option there but is there as a token to give vegans/vegetarians an option. Sensible way to do it given who their customers are.
Unless you undertake a systematic study of National Trust bins, I suspect you'll never know exactly how well the 50-50 policy corresponds to demand.
I would have expected that some data on relative sales of vegan/non-vegan food would have been presented for the vote on changing the mix, otherwise it would have been hard to decide which way to vote.
Joking aside if, as noted above, their scones are vegan then the only non-vegan thing I’ve eaten there for years is the milk in my tea. I would think it would be a bit restrictive for cakes, and definitely for sarnies, but I can image getting to 50% using tray bakes.
I may be misremembering, but I think 15 years ago National Trust cafes used to be ace. They've become dreary, tasteless and disappointing. I went to a National Trust Scotland site last week (Brodie Castle). Unlike National Trust England, NTS doesn't seem to be engaged in an orgy of self-hatred. It was quite a pleasant experience. But the cafe there was just as disappointing as National Trust cafes in England. So it's not solely down to woke.
There have been cost pressures on all hospitality venues for many recent years. Their options are to reduce the quality of their ingredients, increase their prices beyond the ability of many people to pay, or go out of business. I can think of establishments that have taken all three choices in varying proportions.
On the topic of dietary restrictions I sometimes wonder if there'd be a good business case for 'Christian meat', guaranteed not ritually slaughtered. Tender-hearted atheists would be welcome to buy it, too.
Oh I would ban ritually slaughtered meat the day my dictatorship started. Those who won’t eat meat without that element can go veggie.
It pains me to say it, but never bank on expanded voter turnout.
Even the famous Corbyn youthquake in 2017 turned out to be nothing of the sort when the stats came in.
Trump is also banking on new voters - in his case alienated nihilistic young men. Harris has solid poll leads amongst 'engaged' citizens, ie people who always vote.
What has Trump done to engage nihilistic young men that he hadn't done in 2016 or 2020 though? Surely that vein is tapped out already.
Whereas young (and elderly) women concerned about their freedom is a change from 2020.
Quite a bit. Eg the podcast with Rogan, lots of targeted SM activity, the idea being to get these 'bro' types out and voting for male supremacy. No doubt it will have paid a dividend but at the price of putting off others. Much of Trump's campaign has been of an "oh yuck" nature. In any case, just looking at the low propensity side of things, I think as an army the bros will be overwhelmed by Harris's female equivalent.
SM activity, online trolls etc have been a big thing for the QAnon/Trump crazies for the past 8 years.
I'm not seeing many new votes there for Trump. He's doubling down on what he already had.
I'm not too worried either.
Does anyone have links to actual data on the structure of the Trump vote, previously? I’ve heard it said that he got people to vote would normally didn’t, can’t find hard data.
No link, sorry, but that's my understanding too. Rather like Farage and Johnson did for Brexit.
Meanwhile, the Sunday Times is reporting that Ben Houchen has already been offered the deputy leadership.
I can see the theory (red wall, most senior Conservative actually running stuff), but is that entirely wise?
The cleanliness of Houchen's reputation isn't 100 percent fully squeaky, is it?
He was smart enough to bow out of any serious future parliamentary ambitions (if he had any) and cash in for a Peerage before the reputation was gone (given he still managed a fairly comfortable re-election even in 2024). Not a bad return for a political career given he's only 37.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
Yes, it seems to be one of the most pernicious myths there is. I've had a fair bit of experience of planning decisions, and I've never seen a sniff of corruption.
Obviously it has happened - T Dan Smith, for example. But it's pretty rare.
Adopts Ronnie Corbett voice from "Know My Place" sketch.
And I'm in Ashfield.
(Where the Council Leader is up before the Beak in March.)
The brown paper bags don’t show up at planning. They show up during the selection of suppliers for works below certain thresholds, and when those with planning are due to meet certain conditions.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
I have actually seen a brown paper envelope pass hands between two people, early one morning in one of the villages on the road to Cork.
I haven't lined down here long enough to recognise the two people involved in the transaction, and it may have simply been two farmers transacting legitimate business, but it certainly looked a bit odd.
The "Selzer is ackshully a D hack" storyline has problems, namely that she's detected pro-D bias in national polling repeatedly. One-in-20 polls will be flat-out wrong; there's nothing pollsters can do about it. But even if it is (it might not be!) Selzer's an honest broker.
Is it possible that attacking a large tv network, which is likely to be well watched by your target voters, is a suboptimal campaign strategy with a few days to go?
Everything he does pretty much is conventionally sub-optimal and yet here we are two days to go and its neck and neck unless Selzer is correct.
As Freedland astutely observed during the week, if it isn’t neck and neck both a solid Harris win and a solid Trump win are perfectly explainable. Both explanations are entirely credible and convincing, and foreseeable; we just don’t know in advance which explanation is the accurate one…
It's the parable of the blind men and the elephant. Has Ann Selzer touched the parts other pollsters couldn't reach, or is she only feeling the trunk?
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
I have actually seen a brown paper envelope pass hands between two people, early one morning in one of the villages on the road to Cork.
I haven't lined down here long enough to recognise the two people involved in the transaction, and it may have simply been two farmers transacting legitimate business, but it certainly looked a bit odd.
A friend bought a car once and was required to do so in cash, in an envelope, on a lay-by. All very dodgy but he wanted an Escort and they were selling one.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
I have actually seen a brown paper envelope pass hands between two people, early one morning in one of the villages on the road to Cork.
I haven't lined down here long enough to recognise the two people involved in the transaction, and it may have simply been two farmers transacting legitimate business, but it certainly looked a bit odd.
Brown envelopes are like spray paint, balaclavas, nitrous cannisters, and bolt cutters - there may be a theoretically innocent usage, but we should probably just ban them entirely just to be on the safe side and cut out the 95% illegitimate use.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
I have actually seen a brown paper envelope pass hands between two people, early one morning in one of the villages on the road to Cork.
I haven't lined down here long enough to recognise the two people involved in the transaction, and it may have simply been two farmers transacting legitimate business, but it certainly looked a bit odd.
Brown envelopes are like spray paint, balaclavas, nitrous cannisters, and bolt cutters - there may be a theoretically innocent usage, but we should probably just ban them entirely just to be on the safe side and cut out the 95% illegitimate use.
Next you’ll be saying I need to stop assuming that tradesmen’s 20% discount for cash relates to stripping out admin costs.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
Yes, it seems to be one of the most pernicious myths there is. I've had a fair bit of experience of planning decisions, and I've never seen a sniff of corruption.
Obviously it has happened - T Dan Smith, for example. But it's pretty rare.
Adopts Ronnie Corbett voice from "Know My Place" sketch.
And I'm in Ashfield.
(Where the Council Leader is up before the Beak in March.)
Quick google, he sounds well dodgy, it is also a reason you never put independents in charge of anything. But this is proof the system works is it not?
One reason pollsters might be failing to pick up what Ann Selzer picked up in Iowa, is a lot of women are afraid to say they are voting for Harris.
Sharing stories yesterday after knocking doors in Pennsylvania, can't tell you the number of canvassers who had wives standing in the background while speaking to the husband and having them mouth something to the effect that they were voting for Harris. Or if they answered the door, they pretended to not say who they were voting for out loud and then whispered they were voting for Harris. It's kind of heartbreaking actually.
It is an interesting theory, I guess we shall soon see - whilst I'd love to the outcome if, as some people believe, there is a bunch of shy Harris voters not being picked up, it is a bid sad if people cannot be honest with their partners.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
I have actually seen a brown paper envelope pass hands between two people, early one morning in one of the villages on the road to Cork.
I haven't lined down here long enough to recognise the two people involved in the transaction, and it may have simply been two farmers transacting legitimate business, but it certainly looked a bit odd.
A friend bought a car once and was required to do so in cash, in an envelope, on a lay-by. All very dodgy but he wanted an Escort and they were selling one.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
I have actually seen a brown paper envelope pass hands between two people, early one morning in one of the villages on the road to Cork.
I haven't lined down here long enough to recognise the two people involved in the transaction, and it may have simply been two farmers transacting legitimate business, but it certainly looked a bit odd.
A friend bought a car once and was required to do so in cash, in an envelope, on a lay-by. All very dodgy but he wanted an Escort and they were selling one.
Was she part of the transaction ?
Couldn’t afford the Escort so ended up with a Fiesta, a story as old as time.
One reason pollsters might be failing to pick up what Ann Selzer picked up in Iowa, is a lot of women are afraid to say they are voting for Harris.
Sharing stories yesterday after knocking doors in Pennsylvania, can't tell you the number of canvassers who had wives standing in the background while speaking to the husband and having them mouth something to the effect that they were voting for Harris. Or if they answered the door, they pretended to not say who they were voting for out loud and then whispered they were voting for Harris. It's kind of heartbreaking actually.
That’s not full on snorkelling. I suspect the truth is full on snorkelling.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
I have actually seen a brown paper envelope pass hands between two people, early one morning in one of the villages on the road to Cork.
I haven't lined down here long enough to recognise the two people involved in the transaction, and it may have simply been two farmers transacting legitimate business, but it certainly looked a bit odd.
Brown envelopes are like spray paint, balaclavas, nitrous cannisters, and bolt cutters - there may be a theoretically innocent usage, but we should probably just ban them entirely just to be on the safe side and cut out the 95% illegitimate use.
Next you’ll be saying I need to stop assuming that tradesmen’s 20% discount for cash relates to stripping out admin costs.
No, that's totally above board.
I should know, I have a kitchen I need doing and budgeting is tight.
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h If what Selzer is capturing in IA is revulsion on the part of senior women, including conservative ones, at an extreme abortion ban...it could lead one to wonder about TX, which has a similar ban, with much publicized severe consequences, and which was closer than IA in 2020.
I would laugh so hard I might burst a blood vessel if Trump loses Texas thanks to his shenanigans.
It's not really "his shenanigans" though. He doesn't personally care about the abortion issue and has moderated the Republican party's position on it.
For someone well versed in all things Trump you must have missed the unscripted interviews where he states women having abortions should be "punished".
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h If what Selzer is capturing in IA is revulsion on the part of senior women, including conservative ones, at an extreme abortion ban...it could lead one to wonder about TX, which has a similar ban, with much publicized severe consequences, and which was closer than IA in 2020.
I would laugh so hard I might burst a blood vessel if Trump loses Texas thanks to his shenanigans.
It's not really "his shenanigans" though. He doesn't personally care about the abortion issue and has moderated the Republican party's position on it.
For someone well versed in all things Trump you must have missed the unscripted interviews where he states women having abortions should be "punished".
The "Selzer is ackshully a D hack" storyline has problems, namely that she's detected pro-D bias in national polling repeatedly. One-in-20 polls will be flat-out wrong; there's nothing pollsters can do about it. But even if it is (it might not be!) Selzer's an honest broker.
Love the one in 20 poll are flat-out wrong interpretation.
Kind of yes if flat-out wrong is solely determined by a 95% confidence interval, but that is just an arbitrary, if standard, choice. But we could choose different confidence intervals, does that shift a poll from fine to flat-out wrong?
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h If what Selzer is capturing in IA is revulsion on the part of senior women, including conservative ones, at an extreme abortion ban...it could lead one to wonder about TX, which has a similar ban, with much publicized severe consequences, and which was closer than IA in 2020.
I would laugh so hard I might burst a blood vessel if Trump loses Texas thanks to his shenanigans.
It's not really "his shenanigans" though. He doesn't personally care about the abortion issue and has moderated the Republican party's position on it.
For someone well versed in all things Trump you must have missed the unscripted interviews where he states women having abortions should be "punished".
Yes indeed, but it seems to be an area he has followed rather than led on - he knows what the base wants - hence his walking back statements sometimes, when he overshoots, probably as it is not coming from a place of true belief.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
Yes, it seems to be one of the most pernicious myths there is. I've had a fair bit of experience of planning decisions, and I've never seen a sniff of corruption.
Obviously it has happened - T Dan Smith, for example. But it's pretty rare.
Adopts Ronnie Corbett voice from "Know My Place" sketch.
And I'm in Ashfield.
(Where the Council Leader is up before the Beak in March.)
Quick google, he sounds well dodgy, it is also a reason you never put independents in charge of anything. But this is proof the system works is it not?
It's rather complicated, and the local politics is a shark-infested custard - so it's either say little or write an essay.
There's quite a bit in the local paper if you want to dig.
Last time he had police attention was a few weeks before the 2015 General Election as LD candidate, when previous unproven rumours from a decade before conveniently resurfaced in local media, he stood down, and was kept hanging for 2 years of police investigation and the CPS collapsed their case at the door of the Court. I supported him in that case.
This time I think there is perhaps more substance to it, as he has fought like a Trump to get it delayed and moved out of area. An innocent man would imo have wanted an immediate trial, to go into the 2024 Election with "proven innocent" rather than "may be guilty".
The "Selzer is ackshully a D hack" storyline has problems, namely that she's detected pro-D bias in national polling repeatedly. One-in-20 polls will be flat-out wrong; there's nothing pollsters can do about it. But even if it is (it might not be!) Selzer's an honest broker.
Love the one in 20 poll are flat-out wrong interpretation.
Kind of yes if flat-out wrong is solely determined by a 95% confidence interval, but that is just an arbitrary, if standard, choice. But we could choose different confidence intervals, does that shift a poll from fine to flat-out wrong?
That's a fair point. The more meaningful threshold is wrong enough to affect the result. Given the +3 margin for Harris in three Iowa poll, that might be close to 1-in-20, but if we take the polls as a whole at face value, then the polls don't need to be that wrong to get the result wrong.
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h If what Selzer is capturing in IA is revulsion on the part of senior women, including conservative ones, at an extreme abortion ban...it could lead one to wonder about TX, which has a similar ban, with much publicized severe consequences, and which was closer than IA in 2020.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
Yes, it seems to be one of the most pernicious myths there is. I've had a fair bit of experience of planning decisions, and I've never seen a sniff of corruption.
Obviously it has happened - T Dan Smith, for example. But it's pretty rare.
It used to be the modus operandi of Labour rosette wearing donkeys in the English, Welsh and Scottish RedWall, like T. Dan Smith in the North East (although Poulson was a Tory) and the late Graham Jenkins (Richard Burton's brother) in Port Talbot. There were lots more too. Tory RedWall Teesport smells equally whiffy.
Have you not seen Coronation Street's Councillor Alf Roberts thrown to his death by Michael Caine in Get Carter?
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h If what Selzer is capturing in IA is revulsion on the part of senior women, including conservative ones, at an extreme abortion ban...it could lead one to wonder about TX, which has a similar ban, with much publicized severe consequences, and which was closer than IA in 2020.
I would laugh so hard I might burst a blood vessel if Trump loses Texas thanks to his shenanigans.
Me too.
Indeed. Losing Texas would be an epic moment for the Republican Party. I suspect that it would cause a number of people to lose their minds….
It's what needs to happen if the virus of Trump cult is to be eliminated from american life.
The Trumpified GOP has to be near obliterated.
Otherwise they will just try again with Vance in 2028 if they do lose.
They aren't going to be obliterated, Emerson and TIPP who called the 2020 national popular vote almost spot on have it tied between Trump and Harris nationally never mind Texas. The GOP are also likely to win Congress regardless.
Democrats should stop fanciful notions of winning Texas, which ain't happening given the Latino swing to Trump since 2020 and focus on holding the bluewall and scraping Harris across the line with her gains with white women.
If Trump and Vance lose DeSantis is likely 2028 GOP nominee not Vance though if the GOP wanted a clear win finally nationally and in the EC they would pick Haley
You're probably right. But, just suppose that the polls are wrong, it has been known and they do seem to be herding. Maybe the Iowa poll might be nearer the truth. Maybe Trump's behaviour is changing who turns out. Wishful thinking? We should know soon enough.
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h If what Selzer is capturing in IA is revulsion on the part of senior women, including conservative ones, at an extreme abortion ban...it could lead one to wonder about TX, which has a similar ban, with much publicized severe consequences, and which was closer than IA in 2020.
I would laugh so hard I might burst a blood vessel if Trump loses Texas thanks to his shenanigans.
It's not really "his shenanigans" though. He doesn't personally care about the abortion issue and has moderated the Republican party's position on it.
For someone well versed in all things Trump you must have missed the unscripted interviews where he states women having abortions should be "punished".
If the national picture is neck-and-neck, but Iowa has swung to Harris, maybe we should be looking for states experiencing the converse trend to balance things.
Perhaps New England will take an "Anti-Selzer" pill and unexpectedly break for Trump.
If the national picture is neck-and-neck, but Iowa has swung to Harris, maybe we should be looking for states experiencing the converse trend to balance things.
Perhaps New England will take an "Anti-Selzer" pill and unexpectedly break for Trump.
An alka-seltzer surely a pill to calm the reflux pain caused by hard to digest polls
If the national picture is neck-and-neck, but Iowa has swung to Harris, maybe we should be looking for states experiencing the converse trend to balance things.
Perhaps New England will take an "Anti-Selzer" pill and unexpectedly break for Trump.
Well isn't it happening in NY and CA, only probably not enough for Trumpy?
I'm definitely emigrating now. I could just about live with Reeves robbing me blind in the worst budget ever, and closing down all the private schools. But changing the menu choices at my local NT café? That's a step too far; the final straw. I'm off.
Not many people paying attention to the Moldova election I see. I assumed Sandu was home and dry after round one but not quite.
I think it’s going to be tight. If the pro-Russian wins then it’s the next domino. With Trump next week and GD last week it’s looking like a good month for Putin.
There’s arguments both ways. Pylons are not exactly beautiful, but then much of the countryside isn’t that beautiful either. If there was infinite money perhaps burying the lines would be best, but we don’t have infinite money.
My concern with the Selzer poll - and where it potentially will be its Achilles Heel if it is wrong - is this.
From what has been said here, Selzer rings up people, doesn't weight for party registration nor applies other filters, but just tell it as it is. She relies on the fact that Iowans are friendly people and generally have time to talk, and are happy to do so. She also doesn't weight for gender / age. It is quite an old-fashioned approach.
I can see how that sort of polling methodology picks up women voters - particularly older women - who haven't voted before and say they will vote for Harris. Going to stereotypes (bad I know), proportionally more women than men are likely to be at home, being housewives etc and so likely / willing to talk plus have the time to do so.
However, where I can see this type of polling methodology being particularly bad for is polling young males, who (again stereotypes) are probably less keen to speak on the phone, are too bothered on the web, playing games etc.
In previous elections, that wouldn't have mattered as the cohort didn't show much propensity to vote. But this is exactly the audience Trump and Musk have been targeting with the podcasts.
It is hard to say without seeing the crosstabs but my concern would be that Selzer's poll is that she is missing this cohort. So, she could be right and yet wrong - she is picking up a surge in older, female voters for Harris but she is missing a surge coming through in younger male voters for Trump because her methodology is not set up to contact this cohort.
Too much local option to so many things is pure nonsense, but the smarter ones can cloak their real objections with the standard array of excuses which actually do tie to material matters. It's understandable when local cllrs give in, it doesn't take many votes to lose, and MPs don't have impacts on individual planning matters so going along with noisy objections makes sense.
But when there's actual decisions to be made people need to call bullcrap when objections are obviously pretextual. Well done those MPs.
There’s arguments both ways. Pylons are not exactly beautiful, but then much of the countryside isn’t that beautiful either. If there was infinite money perhaps burying the lines would be best, but we don’t have infinite money.
There’s arguments both ways. Pylons are not exactly beautiful, but then much of the countryside isn’t that beautiful either. If there was infinite money perhaps burying the lines would be best, but we don’t have infinite money.
How they look is irrelevant.
No, it’s not. Lots of people believe in beauty and in the intrinsic beauty of the world around them. Maybe you don’t, but others do.
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
Yes, it seems to be one of the most pernicious myths there is. I've had a fair bit of experience of planning decisions, and I've never seen a sniff of corruption.
Obviously it has happened - T Dan Smith, for example. But it's pretty rare.
It used to be the modus operandi of Labour rosette wearing donkeys in the English, Welsh and Scottish RedWall, like T. Dan Smith in the North East (although Poulson was a Tory) and the late Graham Jenkins (Richard Burton's brother) in Port Talbot. There were lots more too. Tory RedWall Teesport smells equally whiffy.
Have you not seen Coronation Street's Councillor Alf Roberts thrown to his death by Michael Caine in Get Carter?
The headline is a little bit more sensationalist than the content.
Trump was really concerned that Hurricane Helena would suppress his score in the western part of the state, which is where he had a big advantage last time. That does not look to be happening - the last I saw, turnout was above the 2020 level. Conversely, the Black vote has trended back to pre-2008 levels, which would be an issue for the Democrats.
I think one thing is increasingly clear that, if Harris does win this election, it will be down to white suburban women. This is where the Republicans' attacks on the trans issue could be decisive - it is targeted at exactly these types of voters who might be tempted to shift to the Democrats.
There’s arguments both ways. Pylons are not exactly beautiful, but then much of the countryside isn’t that beautiful either. If there was infinite money perhaps burying the lines would be best, but we don’t have infinite money.
How they look is irrelevant.
No, it’s not. Lots of people believe in beauty and in the intrinsic beauty of the world around them. Maybe you don’t, but others do.
Yes it is totally irrelevant.
Rejecting infrastructure because you don’t like how it looks is not grounds for not having it. That’s one of the key reasons everything takes so long.
HS2, don’t like a train line so we have to build it in a tunnel at massive expense. Should have just said bugger off and build it anyway.
Phone masts - don’t like how they look. Too bad, we need coverage.
Houses - don’t like how they look. Too bad, we need houses.
People that reject things for visual reasons are my least favourite kinds of people.
Too much local option to so many things is pure nonsense, but the smarter ones can cloak their real objections with the standard array of excuses which actually do tie to material matters. It's understandable when local cllrs give in, it doesn't take many votes to lose, and MPs don't have impacts on individual planning matters so going along with noisy objections makes sense.
But when there's actual decisions to be made people need to call bullcrap when objections are obviously pretextual. Well done those MPs.
So what have we learned since July 4th? The voter's journalist proxies disapprove of taxation and object to any planning application but demand social spending and improved infrastructure. Fortunately they have a couple of parties they can rely on to cut taxes, reject planning applications and who say they will provide social and infrastructure improvements at no additional cost, just so long as foreigners go home.
There’s arguments both ways. Pylons are not exactly beautiful, but then much of the countryside isn’t that beautiful either. If there was infinite money perhaps burying the lines would be best, but we don’t have infinite money.
How they look is irrelevant.
No, it’s not. Lots of people believe in beauty and in the intrinsic beauty of the world around them. Maybe you don’t, but others do.
Yes it is totally irrelevant.
Rejecting infrastructure because you don’t like how it looks is not grounds for not having it. That’s one of the key reasons everything takes so long.
HS2, don’t like a train line so we have to build it in a tunnel at massive expense. Should have just said bugger off and build it anyway.
Phone masts - don’t like how they look. Too bad, we need coverage.
Houses - don’t like how they look. Too bad, we need houses.
People that reject things for visual reasons are my least favourite kinds of people.
I agree that we need the infrastructure but there are ways of doing things to ameliorate how they look. As an example phone masts disguised as trees. This isn’t about trying to retain some fictional bucolic olde England, but the environment where people lives affects there lives, and we should include the look of things as part of consideration. I think you go too far in your approach to planning, and some go too far the other way.
There’s arguments both ways. Pylons are not exactly beautiful, but then much of the countryside isn’t that beautiful either. If there was infinite money perhaps burying the lines would be best, but we don’t have infinite money.
How they look is irrelevant.
It doesn't need to be entirely irrelevant to not be significantly relevant.
George Osborne says he has found more support for Trump amongst company executives and major figures on Wall Street at conferences he attends now than he did in 2016. More evidence for a Trump popular vote win by making inroads on the coasts and with Latinos and Black men while Harris may yet scrape home in the EC by gains with white women and rural white voters in the Midwest and Pennsylvania? https://x.com/polcurrency/status/1852372642465997149
"I shouldn't have left" -- Trump now says he shouldn't have left office on January 20, 2021
Trump is really leaning into pushing baseless preemptive claims of election fraud today, which is how you know he's losing
Trump is exuding big whiny baby loser energy this morning
Surely in order to guarantee a win he simply needs to deploy armed militias to Democrat wards across all the swing states, plus some other states that didn't appear to be swing states this morning.
"I shouldn't have left" -- Trump now says he shouldn't have left office on January 20, 2021
Trump is really leaning into pushing baseless preemptive claims of election fraud today, which is how you know he's losing
Trump is exuding big whiny baby loser energy this morning
Wait:
I thought Trump was campaigning in California and New Mexico because he knew he was winning?
The candidates know nothing. And, fwiw, I suspect Trump knows even less than nothing, because underlings will try and keep bad news from him.
People have a tendency to believe internal polling must be more accurate, and that if it is campaigns act with perfect logic as a result of it. Neither is necessarily true.
Unfortunately Trump exudes big whiny baby energy a lot since his stump speech is mostly repeating his grievances, so it's not determinative of what he personally believes abotu his chances.
There’s arguments both ways. Pylons are not exactly beautiful, but then much of the countryside isn’t that beautiful either. If there was infinite money perhaps burying the lines would be best, but we don’t have infinite money.
How they look is irrelevant.
No, it’s not. Lots of people believe in beauty and in the intrinsic beauty of the world around them. Maybe you don’t, but others do.
Yes it is totally irrelevant.
Rejecting infrastructure because you don’t like how it looks is not grounds for not having it. That’s one of the key reasons everything takes so long.
HS2, don’t like a train line so we have to build it in a tunnel at massive expense. Should have just said bugger off and build it anyway.
Phone masts - don’t like how they look. Too bad, we need coverage.
Houses - don’t like how they look. Too bad, we need houses.
People that reject things for visual reasons are my least favourite kinds of people.
Then in 20 years time you look at the mess created in the name of "progress" and gently murmur: "I remember when all this were fields".
Am I just naive? I refuse to believe that corruption is rampant across our body politics. I’ve been in positions at a local government level where it might have been worth bunging me something, never got offered anything or even hinted at. The police do not mess around with this kind of stuff. If there was dodgy stuff going on they wouldn’t be able to stop falling over themselves to chase it down. Careers are made on taking down dodgy politicians. I always think it’s worth remembering that a cabinet minister went to jail, yes, went to jail for getting his wife to take his three speeding points. An act in itself if we are being honest is trivial and could have been swept under the carpet with a telling off and not be so stupid. But no he was pursued and went to jail. It will be the same if anything comes out of Covid. Jail. Back to Covid, we had a pm and a chancellor. Two of the three highest offices of state of HMG who got fixed penalties for been present when someone else presented them some cake whilst they were at work. The chancellor even left the room a few minutes after it started, yet still got a fine.
If something stinks the police either are on it, will be on it, or it didn’t really stink after all.
christ, you're as green as grass
Every local facebook group I have ever been a member on has a list of people claiming council planning decisions are the consequence of brown paper envelopes. They are utterly convinced that Bob Useless the chairman of the local planning committee is getting bungs from a national house builder.
I have actually seen a brown paper envelope pass hands between two people, early one morning in one of the villages on the road to Cork.
I haven't lined down here long enough to recognise the two people involved in the transaction, and it may have simply been two farmers transacting legitimate business, but it certainly looked a bit odd.
A friend owed me £500 I'd lent her. She produced it from her cleavage. Onlookers were quizzically wondering why she was paying ME...
George Osborne says he has found more support for Trump amongst company executives and major figures on Wall Street now than he did in 2016. More evidence for a Trump popular vote win by making inroads on the coasts and with Latinos and Black men while Harris may yet scrape home in the EC by gains with white women and rural white voters in the Midwest and Pennsylvania? https://x.com/polcurrency/status/1852372642465997149
You could offset the Fortune 500 COOs, CFOs and CEOs by applying all the GOP grandees that are now supporting Harris.
Don't you think if women come out for Harris she probably wins? If they don't Trump cruises home.
Comments
A muslim mum from Manchester asked me if the meat was Halal - well it's going to be because we are in a 5 star hotel in Turkey..
(Shouldn't Jack W be opining on this one?)
Worth noting that the whole of the Iowa State House and 1/2 of the Iowa State Senate are up next week, so there is the opportunity to repeal the new abortion law.
He might get pastors to lay hands on him and declare him sent by God, but he personally does not seem to be religiously observant, and the abortion issue is one where he has delivered what the base wanted, delivered it to term one might say, and they love him for it, but he is not the driving force.
Democrats should stop fanciful notions of winning Texas, which ain't happening given the Latino swing to Trump since 2020 and focus on holding the bluewall and scraping Harris across the line with her gains with white women.
If Trump and Vance lose DeSantis is likely 2028 GOP nominee not Vance though if the GOP wanted a clear win finally nationally and in the EC they would pick Haley
One of the more interesting people I have known was someone who went to Evensong with his wife for the company in a normal "broad church" type rural parish, and his outlook changed between starting to kneel down and reaching the hassock (his own account).
He became a fairly conservative in his views, but non-confrontational 'rub along with everyone else' type, evangelical and a focus for that tradition in the parish, and hosted the church bible study group for about 20 years.
People are interesting.
He's Luca Badoer with a rich daddy.
https://youtu.be/TVkV2oGPM2k?si=knnXmnBpiadaqjyR
Reminded me quite a bit of Knock at the Cabin from a few years ago (which should have kept the novel's name 'The Cabin at the End of the World')
Obviously it has happened - T Dan Smith, for example. But it's pretty rare.
@lyzl
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16h
People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.
Lyz Lenz
@lyzl
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16h
60 percent of Iowans support abortion in all or most circumstances. Many Iowans remember a time before Roe. They remember life without choice and bodily autonomy. Kim Reynolds and the Iowa republicans passed a near total abortion ban. And people are mad.
https://x.com/lyzl/status/1852854833285570566
Are there cases? Of course, no one's silly enough to say corruption does not exist, but the way things are set up it really would not be the simple or straightforward affair people casually claim it is.
It's probably yet another reason planning officers are in short supply, as it is a difficult, low paid job, and no one is ever happy with you.
(For avoidance of doubt, I am not a planning officer).
https://x.com/lorenzothecat/status/1853097929617162712?s=61
If there are brown envelopes, they are as well-constructed as many of the houses built by volume builders. All the money must have fallen out before it reached us.
One reason pollsters might be failing to pick up what Ann Selzer picked up in Iowa, is a lot of women are afraid to say they are voting for Harris.
Sharing stories yesterday after knocking doors in Pennsylvania, can't tell you the number of canvassers who had wives standing in the background while speaking to the husband and having them mouth something to the effect that they were voting for Harris. Or if they answered the door, they pretended to not say who they were voting for out loud and then whispered they were voting for Harris. It's kind of heartbreaking actually.
(They won't).
And I'm in Ashfield.
(Where the Council Leader is up before the Beak in March.)
https://x.com/lorenzothecat/status/1853097929617162712?s=61
I haven't lined down here long enough to recognise the two people involved in the transaction, and it may have simply been two farmers transacting legitimate business, but it certainly looked a bit odd.
https://x.com/SeanTrende/status/1853101621326000152
I should know, I have a kitchen I need doing and budgeting is tight.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/north-carolina-making-trump-campaign-nervous-rcna178523
Kind of yes if flat-out wrong is solely determined by a 95% confidence interval, but that is just an arbitrary, if standard, choice. But we could choose different confidence intervals, does that shift a poll from fine to flat-out wrong?
There's quite a bit in the local paper if you want to dig.
Last time he had police attention was a few weeks before the 2015 General Election as LD candidate, when previous unproven rumours from a decade before conveniently resurfaced in local media, he stood down, and was kept hanging for 2 years of police investigation and the CPS collapsed their case at the door of the Court. I supported him in that case.
This time I think there is perhaps more substance to it, as he has fought like a Trump to get it delayed and moved out of area. An innocent man would imo have wanted an immediate trial, to go into the 2024 Election with "proven innocent" rather than "may be guilty".
Sub Judice, so that's all I'll say.
"North Korean Troops in Russia - North Korean Shells, Troops & Russian Offensives"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vL5IHAEiY4
Have you not seen Coronation Street's Councillor Alf Roberts thrown to his death by Michael Caine in Get Carter?
NBC? I'll give you that one as a Mandy Rice- Davies moment. They would say...
But, just suppose that the polls are wrong, it has been known and they do seem to be herding. Maybe the Iowa poll might be nearer the truth. Maybe Trump's behaviour is changing who turns out.
Wishful thinking? We should know soon enough.
I am sure he couldn't care less about abortion, but his devotees do.
Perhaps New England will take an "Anti-Selzer" pill and unexpectedly break for Trump.
Letter by 61 Labour MPs supports ‘cheapest and most pragmatic’ plan for new electricity infrastructure
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/03/labour-mps-push-back-against-anti-pylon-lobbying-despite-local-opposition
Thank goodness.
My concern with the Selzer poll - and where it potentially will be its Achilles Heel if it is wrong - is this.
From what has been said here, Selzer rings up people, doesn't weight for party registration nor applies other filters, but just tell it as it is. She relies on the fact that Iowans are friendly people and generally have time to talk, and are happy to do so. She also doesn't weight for gender / age. It is quite an old-fashioned approach.
I can see how that sort of polling methodology picks up women voters - particularly older women - who haven't voted before and say they will vote for Harris. Going to stereotypes (bad I know), proportionally more women than men are likely to be at home, being housewives etc and so likely / willing to talk plus have the time to do so.
However, where I can see this type of polling methodology being particularly bad for is polling young males, who (again stereotypes) are probably less keen to speak on the phone, are too bothered on the web, playing games etc.
In previous elections, that wouldn't have mattered as the cohort didn't show much propensity to vote. But this is exactly the audience Trump and Musk have been targeting with the podcasts.
It is hard to say without seeing the crosstabs but my concern would be that Selzer's poll is that she is missing this cohort. So, she could be right and yet wrong - she is picking up a surge in older, female voters for Harris but she is missing a surge coming through in younger male voters for Trump because her methodology is not set up to contact this cohort.
But when there's actual decisions to be made people need to call bullcrap when objections are obviously pretextual. Well done those MPs.
Trump is big mad about the Selzer poll
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853111961904463922
"I shouldn't have left" -- Trump now says he shouldn't have left office on January 20, 2021
Trump is really leaning into pushing baseless preemptive claims of election fraud today, which is how you know he's losing
Trump is exuding big whiny baby loser energy this morning
lmao Trump is now attacking Fox News for not pushing his election fraud lies harder. They've already lost $787 million for doing that!
Trump was really concerned that Hurricane Helena would suppress his score in the western part of the state, which is where he had a big advantage last time. That does not look to be happening - the last I saw, turnout was above the 2020 level. Conversely, the Black vote has trended back to pre-2008 levels, which would be an issue for the Democrats.
I think one thing is increasingly clear that, if Harris does win this election, it will be down to white suburban women. This is where the Republicans' attacks on the trans issue could be decisive - it is targeted at exactly these types of voters who might be tempted to shift to the Democrats.
Rejecting infrastructure because you don’t like how it looks is not grounds for not having it. That’s one of the key reasons everything takes so long.
HS2, don’t like a train line so we have to build it in a tunnel at massive expense. Should have just said bugger off and build it anyway.
Phone masts - don’t like how they look. Too bad, we need coverage.
Houses - don’t like how they look. Too bad, we need houses.
People that reject things for visual reasons are my least favourite kinds of people.
I thought Trump was campaigning in California and New Mexico because he knew he was winning?
The candidates know nothing. And, fwiw, I suspect Trump knows even less than nothing, because underlings will try and keep bad news from him.
https://x.com/polcurrency/status/1852372642465997149
Unfortunately Trump exudes big whiny baby energy a lot since his stump speech is mostly repeating his grievances, so it's not determinative of what he personally believes abotu his chances.
Don't you think if women come out for Harris she probably wins? If they don't Trump cruises home.