The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Kemi is more agnostic Catholic than evangelical. Her husband Hamish is Roman Catholic.
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
As antidote to the header the only actual voting data AFAIK shows a slight advantage to Trump. Nevada is a battleground state won by Biden last time where almost all the votes are submitted and counted early. It looks very close at the moment but GOP marginally ahead.
They only need to split 125k R to 176k D to have the state evenly split.
And that assumes the R number doesn't include a bunch of Haley voters for Harris. Nevada had a really messed up Caucus (Trump dominated) and Primary (where Haley got 30% of the votes cast). Stick 10,000 Haley Republicans in the mix and the split only needs to be 135k Republicans to 166k Democrats amongst those No party affiliation.
Even more interesting, the designation of No part affiliation for those who get a new drivers licence should greatly skew to younger voters. Who skew greatly towards Harris.
Point is, there is no certainty that the Republican lead in Nevada is 45,000. Or indeed, any lead at all.
I think the 44K Republican lead is votes submitted and counted, so it is a hard number. The purpose of the blog is to determine how likely the Democrats would overturn that advantage and go on to win, bearing in mind where the remaining votes will come from and how those areas have voted in the ballots so far.
Ralston expects the Republican advantage to be reduced given factors such as those you mention but a challenge for the Democrats to completely overcome. On my understanding. It is very close however.
The votes are submitted but I don't think they've been counted and publicly declared yet.
I think its based on affiliation, which typically would be a 1:1 ratio with counts but not always.
How many Republicans are of a Lincoln Project tendency who will vote against Trump despite being a registered Republican is unknown.
As too for fairness is how many registered Democrats who might still vote Trump.
There could be quite a few people voting the ‘wrong’ way for their registration.
The likes of Gabbard and Kennedy Democrats on one side, and the Lincoln Project and Haley Republicans on the other. Plenty of people who very much dislike the way their regular party has gone about selecting their andidate.
That was conducted on behalf of Real Clear Politics ! I’d hope it didn’t effect their poll but RCP is another Trump arse licker.
There are very many Trump arse-lickers, including right here on PB. I have been somewhat surprised at the identity of otherwise sane PBers who have their tonsils permanently glued to Trump’s nether regions.
Andrew Rosindell unsurprisingly backed Trump on BBC Politics London this morning
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Pension will only be paid after 83.
I think the State Pension age should move to 70, with provision to take an actuarily reduced state pension at an earlier age. The nations demographics require it, and better to set the ball in motion sooner than later.
The nations demographics are such that we need to contribute more, work longer and get less. This is even more true in other countries. The demographics of South Korea or Taiwan are the future.
That asks the interesting question, how long should an average person have a pension for with full contributions?
If 68 as currently in sight, then that is 14-15 years duration, compared with a full working life of 40-45 years and a minimum required contribution period of 30 years.
That was conducted on behalf of Real Clear Politics ! I’d hope it didn’t effect their poll but RCP is another Trump arse licker.
There are very many Trump arse-lickers, including right here on PB. I have been somewhat surprised at the identity of otherwise sane PBers who have their tonsils permanently glued to Trump’s nether regions.
Andrew Rosindell unsurprisingly backed Trump on BBC Politics London this morning
Rosindell is a truly odious individual.
He knows his voters though, I suspect Romford is one of the few constituencies in the UK that would vote for Trump over Harris
IMO she's floundering at this point, and is vulnerable to being skewered on details - but Sir Keir needs some rhetoric/narrative as well, which we have not yet seen very much.
You thought that? I thought she was quite clear about what she was and what she wanted to be. The interviewer was trying to goad her into sticking the knife into Boris and Truss. She resisted. She kept to the pincher issue. She was reasonable in saying why should wouldnt introduce VAt on schooling. She might have been better with a response back with the detail of the policy showing that it wont raise anything like what is claimed.
She doesnt need razzle and dazzle, I dont even think she needs a retail offer for many years. She just needs to be appear competent and sound.
Very happy about my long term support for her so far.
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Kemi is more agnostic Catholic than evangelical. Her husband Hamish is Roman Catholic.
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
That was conducted on behalf of Real Clear Politics ! I’d hope it didn’t effect their poll but RCP is another Trump arse licker.
There are very many Trump arse-lickers, including right here on PB. I have been somewhat surprised at the identity of otherwise sane PBers who have their tonsils permanently glued to Trump’s nether regions.
Andrew Rosindell unsurprisingly backed Trump on BBC Politics London this morning
Rosindell is a truly odious individual.
He knows his voters though, I suspect Romford is one of the few constituencies in the UK that would vote for Trump over Harris
IMO she's floundering at this point, and is vulnerable to being skewered on details - but Sir Keir needs some rhetoric/narrative as well, which we have not yet seen very much.
You thought that? I thought she was quite clear about what she was and what she wanted to be. The interviewer was trying to goad her into sticking the knife into Boris and Truss. She resisted. She kept to the pincher issue. She was reasonable in saying why should wouldnt introduce VAt on schooling. She might have been better with a response back with the detail of the policy showing that it wont raise anything like what is claimed.
She doesnt need razzle and dazzle, I dont even think she needs a retail offer for many years. She just needs to be appear competent and sound.
Very happy about my long term support for her so far.
She failed to grasp a key element of the employer NICs policy. A worrying blunder after less than 24 hours in the job.
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Kemi is more agnostic Catholic than evangelical. Her husband Hamish is Roman Catholic.
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
I have a lot of experience with Nigeria, and had extended family there. It is a deeply conservative country and intermingling of christian and muslim families is not unusual at all. It is culturally Christian in many areas, but the distinction with Islam in the urban areas isnt as big as you would think. The values cross sect between them, some might say in a truly Abrahamic way.
Kemi Badenoch tells @bbclaurak that Boris Johnson was a "great" prime minister and partygate was "overblown".
Badenoch's interview on Kuenssberg was very interesting and she is quite impressive
I think she may well surprise her opponents, even confound them
I would suggest it would be foolhardy to underestimate her
Good to see you on board. I think she is in principle okay, but Cleverly would have moved the dial very much more in your favour.
It is the first time I have heard her interviewed, and she was confident and very much pro business and anti big government which is a breath of fresh air from some previous conservatives
She needs to get a grip on facts though. It has taken her less than 24 hours to make her first blunder. The increase in Employer NICs will NOT be levied on the NHS. She really should have known that.
It will on GPs etc
Yes. And as I posted earlier this results from a structural 'error' in the NHS. It wasn't so much of a problem back in 1948, but circumstances have changed, and are continuing to do so.
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm finding this US election quite stressful, largely because a) it's important, and b) I've absolutely no idea who's going to win - and I don't believe anybody else knows either. It's the hope that stresses you.
To be honest I have no stress as I have no doubt Harris will win
Let's all be positive
Fair enough, but how can you possibly be so confident?
Both my sons are now in NY and both voted Harris (1 in NC, 1 in NY). However both of them are not nearly as confident as you are are. The old Confederate lines are being drawn. My take is that NC and Georgia are going for Trump. The fight is PA as always. To counter my sons the whole of the rest of their family, white college educated are voting Trump in NC. About 12 to 2 for Trump.
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm finding this US election quite stressful, largely because a) it's important, and b) I've absolutely no idea who's going to win - and I don't believe anybody else knows either. It's the hope that stresses you.
To be honest I have no stress as I have no doubt Harris will win
Let's all be positive
Fair enough, but how can you possibly be so confident?
Both my sons are now in NY and both voted Harris (1 in NC, 1 in NY). However both of them are not nearly as confident as you are are. The old Confederate lines are being drawn. My take is that NC and Georgia are going for Trump. The fight is PA as always. To counter my sons the whole of the rest of their family, white college educated are voting Trump in NC. About 12 to 2 for Trump.
I’m not at all confident, that was my point. It was Big G Wales who declared himself confident, not me.
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Kemi is more agnostic Catholic than evangelical. Her husband Hamish is Roman Catholic.
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
Nominal Roman Catholic, with Anglican quantities of Fudge.
This is interesting:
My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.
Both her parents were Yoruba, which is (roughly or in part - open to correction on details) a large but not dominant tribe which went from traditional African religion to part Muslim, predominantly Christian, is mainly urban, was on the winning side in the Biafran War, and in the past was active as slavers. The new religion would incorporate elements of the old, usually.
Fascinating mix. Heritage formed mainly in the 1910 to 1940 period by the look of it.
Kemi Badenoch tells @bbclaurak that Boris Johnson was a "great" prime minister and partygate was "overblown".
Badenoch's interview on Kuenssberg was very interesting and she is quite impressive
I think she may well surprise her opponents, even confound them
I would suggest it would be foolhardy to underestimate her
Good to see you on board. I think she is in principle okay, but Cleverly would have moved the dial very much more in your favour.
It is the first time I have heard her interviewed, and she was confident and very much pro business and anti big government which is a breath of fresh air from some previous conservatives
She needs to get a grip on facts though. It has taken her less than 24 hours to make her first blunder. The increase in Employer NICs will NOT be levied on the NHS. She really should have known that.
It will on GPs etc
Yes. And as I posted earlier this results from a structural 'error' in the NHS. It wasn't so much of a problem back in 1948, but circumstances have changed, and are continuing to do so.
I made reference before about how other companies bidding for NHS contracts, if up against an in house bid are going to need to be compensated in some way. A special opt out for the NHS but not for private companies bidding to carry out NHS activities is almost certainly going to conflict with international treaty trade agreements.
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
I think she will rub a lot of people the wrong way, particularly if she goes heavy on the social authoritarianism of the National Conservatives.
I think she is quite socially conservative herself, but the key issue is whether she wants to force that social conservatism on the rest of us, or whether she actually believes in freedom.
That's always the tricky bit for social conservatives. In theory, "I respect your freedom to go full-on Gilead in your personal life" ought to work, but in practice it doesn't. As our friends across the Atlantic are demonstrating.
I always find it interesting how vociferously left-wingers and progressive liberals argue against any pushback to their sociocultural consensus. "Stick to the economics, guys!"
Maybe they doth protest too much...
No, it's just old fashioned Liberalism. It's why I don't vote Labour or Conservative, but was swayed to vote for Cameron in 2010.
Identity politics goes against Liberalism.
That's why I oppose it.
I don't support Identity Politics.
In particular the nasty right wing populism prevalent across the world.
Yes, but you do, don't you? Provided it's the right type of identity politics, in which case you argue it isn't really anyway.
I think you may have got some of us non-right wingers wrong. Most of us couldn't really care less about taking the knee at Wembley, although we are offended by riots incited by senior politicians quoting Andrew Tate. And I couldn't really demonstrate an interest in LGBT rights.
I do have diametrically opposed opinions to yourself on certain issues but my view (probably like yours) is borne out of practicality. Take the VAT on schools issue that you keep flagging me for. Your view is you should be entitled to educate your children to the standards you desire. I agree you should, but for the privilege you should pay VAT on that lifestyle choice. I would prefer all children to have the same opportunities awarded to your children at their private school, but in a top quality state school. If the UK state sector were properly funded and as such results based on the merit of the student rather than because of their parents income the UK would ( in my view) be a richer nation.
I went to a great comprehensive school which was promoted through the will of then Education Secretary Margaret Thatcher, it was full of students whose parents could have afforded Solihull or Bromsgrove Schools but they chose not to because they didn't need to.
In order to pay for such a service a higher taxation burden is required. One question begs another and so on. But fundamentally do we want the top 7% to flourish and everyone else to flounder? I don't believe identity politics plays any part in that central theme. We would all be treated equally.
I am beginning to think that the Tory party will recover faster than most of us thought possible, The wipe out of so many Tory MPs is in some ways a benefit to Kemi. The Tories can restart with a fresh team untainted by the past issues. Jenerick's focus on Reform was a big mistake. Many of Reform's voters will never vote Tory. Remember it was the Tory party that put Tommy in jail in the first place.
Kemi needs to focus on the traditional groups of Tory voters the farmers, the small business owners and the striving middle class who want to send their kids to private schools. This along with the senior citizens can give them a base of 30-35% of the voters. The first big challenge is Scotland in May next year. I expect the Tories if Kemi delivers will do Ok and may take a couple of rural seats off the SNP.
Scotland isn't up until 2026, next year it is only shire county council seats and the odd unitary up.
Given the Tories got 36% and Labour 29% last time those seats were up in 2021 I expect both to lose seats to Reform and also but to a lesser extent the LDs and Greens and Independents
Agree. I posted earlier that I expect the Tories to lose big in Surrey (and the rest of the SE?) to the LDs, but Reform and Tories to make gains from Labour elsewhere.
After the 2025 counties the Tories will not be defending so much so will start making gains again.
Yes, if Trump wins Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Harris then has to win Georgia and North Carolina.
That poll suggests she would but by a mere 1-2%
She'd take that though!
But would her opponent? He's not known for accepting the results of democratic elections unless they favour him!
It's not up to him. The US system is very experienced in dealing with frivolously contested elections, it doesn't assume the loser will be gracious. What it's not set up for is the incumbent president openly abusing his power, that's what made the last election so terrifying.
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Kemi is more agnostic Catholic than evangelical. Her husband Hamish is Roman Catholic.
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
Nominal Roman Catholic, with Anglican quantities of Fudge.
This is interesting:
My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.
Both her parents were Yoruba, which is (roughly or in part - open to correction on details) a tribe which went from traditional African to part Muslim, predominantly Christian, is mainly urban, was on the winning side in the Biafran War, and in the past was active as slavers.
Fascinating mix.
My experiences are also with Yoruba. They tend to be the educated middle classes who come to the UK on highly skilled/educated visas.
IMO she's floundering at this point, and is vulnerable to being skewered on details - but Sir Keir needs some rhetoric/narrative as well, which we have not yet seen very much.
You thought that? I thought she was quite clear about what she was and what she wanted to be. The interviewer was trying to goad her into sticking the knife into Boris and Truss. She resisted. She kept to the pincher issue. She was reasonable in saying why should wouldnt introduce VAt on schooling. She might have been better with a response back with the detail of the policy showing that it wont raise anything like what is claimed.
She doesnt need razzle and dazzle, I dont even think she needs a retail offer for many years. She just needs to be appear competent and sound.
Very happy about my long term support for her so far.
She failed to grasp a key element of the employer NICs policy. A worrying blunder after less than 24 hours in the job.
Seems like you've failed to understand it more than she has.
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Pension will only be paid after 83.
I think the State Pension age should move to 70, with provision to take an actuarily reduced state pension at an earlier age. The nations demographics require it, and better to set the ball in motion sooner than later.
The nations demographics are such that we need to contribute more, work longer and get less. This is even more true in other countries. The demographics of South Korea or Taiwan are the future.
Rawnsley is wrong on one count, there is no way they will own up to their economic incompetence, their electoral success has been built on the myth of economic competence, if they admit that's false then they've only got 'crime' (lol) and bigotry.
They Tories don’t have crime - look at last week it took 20 months for the clear cut Holly Newton case to be prosecuted - a murder that scared everyone in Hexham but where the murderer was instantly known and arrested
Like a number of other areas of policy, the last few Conservative years consisted mainly of neglect and butt-sitting.
In all of those areas, if the new Government can noticeably improve things, they are nailed.
The Eternal Problem of Opposition: you have no agency. And the previous Govt left a wide-open field.
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Kemi is more agnostic Catholic than evangelical. Her husband Hamish is Roman Catholic.
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
Nominal Roman Catholic, with Anglican quantities of Fudge.
This is interesting:
My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.
Both her parents were Yoruba, which is (roughly or in part - open to correction on details) a large but not dominant tribe which went from traditional African religion to part Muslim, predominantly Christian, is mainly urban, was on the winning side in the Biafran War, and in the past was active as slavers. The new religion would incorporate elements of the old, usually.
Fascinating mix. Heritage formed mainly in the 1910 to 1940 period by the look of it.
Slavers you say? Even less keen on reparations than your average right wing Tory then.
IMO she's floundering at this point, and is vulnerable to being skewered on details - but Sir Keir needs some rhetoric/narrative as well, which we have not yet seen very much.
You thought that? I thought she was quite clear about what she was and what she wanted to be. The interviewer was trying to goad her into sticking the knife into Boris and Truss. She resisted. She kept to the pincher issue. She was reasonable in saying why should wouldnt introduce VAt on schooling. She might have been better with a response back with the detail of the policy showing that it wont raise anything like what is claimed.
She doesnt need razzle and dazzle, I dont even think she needs a retail offer for many years. She just needs to be appear competent and sound.
Very happy about my long term support for her so far.
She failed to grasp a key element of the employer NICs policy. A worrying blunder after less than 24 hours in the job.
Seems like you've failed to understand it more than she has.
He says that they have enough mad stuff that Trump actually says that they can use to attack him, without needing to make stuff up about him that just enables his supporters to remind each other that they don’t hate the media enough.
He’s also not happy with Biden for the “garbage” comment, compares it it to Hillary’s “deplorables” from 2016.
IMO she's floundering at this point, and is vulnerable to being skewered on details - but Sir Keir needs some rhetoric/narrative as well, which we have not yet seen very much.
You thought that? I thought she was quite clear about what she was and what she wanted to be. The interviewer was trying to goad her into sticking the knife into Boris and Truss. She resisted. She kept to the pincher issue. She was reasonable in saying why should wouldnt introduce VAt on schooling. She might have been better with a response back with the detail of the policy showing that it wont raise anything like what is claimed.
She doesnt need razzle and dazzle, I dont even think she needs a retail offer for many years. She just needs to be appear competent and sound.
Very happy about my long term support for her so far.
She failed to grasp a key element of the employer NICs policy. A worrying blunder after less than 24 hours in the job.
Seems like you've failed to understand it more than she has.
Nope.
Yep.
GPs, Care Homes, Pharmacies and more will all be paying Employers NICs.
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm finding this US election quite stressful, largely because a) it's important, and b) I've absolutely no idea who's going to win - and I don't believe anybody else knows either. It's the hope that stresses you.
To be honest I have no stress as I have no doubt Harris will win
Let's all be positive
Fair enough, but how can you possibly be so confident?
I really cannot answer it other than my instinct says Harris will win
Maybe I am also relaxed as I do not bet and have no stress over any betting position !!!!
Wednesday 6th November will see President Harris
Though how she performs in the role I have no idea
Kemi Badenoch tells @bbclaurak that Boris Johnson was a "great" prime minister and partygate was "overblown".
Badenoch's interview on Kuenssberg was very interesting and she is quite impressive
I think she may well surprise her opponents, even confound them
I would suggest it would be foolhardy to underestimate her
Good to see you on board. I think she is in principle okay, but Cleverly would have moved the dial very much more in your favour.
It is the first time I have heard her interviewed, and she was confident and very much pro business and anti big government which is a breath of fresh air from some previous conservatives
She needs to get a grip on facts though. It has taken her less than 24 hours to make her first blunder. The increase in Employer NICs will NOT be levied on the NHS. She really should have known that.
OK, Nevada. Let's predict the votes based on the change in a thing since 2020.
2020 Results * 2020 results were DEM 50.06%, REP 47.67%, which are rebased to DEM 51.22% REP 48.78% to total to 100% * DEMVOTE2024 = DEMVOTE2020*(thing now)/(thing then) * REPVOTE2024 = REPVOTE2020*(thing now)/(thing then)
Uniform State Swing: (based on state poll then vs state poll now) * DEM 48.22%, REP 51.95%, REP WINS
Registration: (based on registration numbers then vs registration numbers now) * DEM 48.98%, REP 51.02%, REP WINS
Guys, I'm sorry, but I don't see her winning this. Uniform swing, early votes and registration changes all indicate that Trump will win Nevada. Happy to hear counterargument but if it's "there will be a late swing" I will say bad words.
How are you accounting for those registered independent ?
I'm not.
I need a brutal sieve. I don't have the time nor the tech to do anything but something brutal. I don't need to know the exact numbers, just which of DEM and REP are bigger. So it becomes as simple as:
Too brutal. There are more voters registered independent that either Rep or Dem, in Nevada. You can’t really ignore how they might break - and that’s at least fairly likely to decade the outcome.
Fair enough. So, in your judgement who is going to win Nevada: Dem or Rep?
No strong conviction - it’s a coin flip, IMO. I’m pretty confident the independents will break for Harris, thoigh.
I'm on the ground in Nevada. I've been reading Ralston's blog all week (as has anyone who is considering betting).
The numbers are not good for the Democrats. However, and it's a big however, there are two changes that have happened since 2020.
First, voter registration is now automatic with Drivers License renewal. No-one knows what this means in terms of the predictive nature of early votes in prior elections.
Secondly, there has continued to be a large influx from California. Reno and Vegas property prices are still much cheaper than the Bay Area or LA. Remote work has been a thing that has enabled younger college-educated tech workers to move to Nevada. No one knows what this means.
To favour Trump, the Republicans did win the state governor race in 2022. But they didn't make any headway in the state house and lost the other statewide offices, the senate race and the house districts.
To favour Harris, there is an abortion referendum on the ballot (question 6). Democrats are running hard on this. I could see this juicing the women vote, even those that are registered Republican.
In short, as Ralston says, nobody knows and anybody who thinks they know doesn't. I certainly don't. I could easily see a women-led Harris win by 5. Or a Latino swing to a Trump win by 5.
So I'll finish with the only thing I can personally add, which is in my neighbourhood I see no Trump signs this year. In 2020 they were in about 5 gardens in my street. There are no Harris signs, but there were no Biden signs either.
Along the roads I see more Trump signs than Harris signs, but again less than in 2020. There are still people driving around with Trump flags, but less than in 2020.
Finally, the Trump signs show all the signs of leaning heavily into crazy. One official one says "Trump was right about EVERYTHING". As a friend remarked to me, "Inject bleach if you agree". Another says "TRUMP VANCE MUSK KENNEDY" which is not the positive message they think it is. I'd say these signs, if anything, are more motivating for people to vote Harris because like everything Trump, they go too far.
I guess we'll find out in 72 hours!
Reproducing MartinVegas excellent contribution to political betting from last evenings thread, for benefit all who haven’t yet seen it.
For my part - based on what we have Ralston saying, yet pollsters like sienna +3 Kam - I’m thinking Especially registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about the business quietly and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes. Trump/Kam canvesser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, as they don’t want it seeping out… “have you voted, can you tell me who for?” “Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Trump.”
A tight election can be decided in a surprise due to Snorkelling.
Kemi Badenoch tells @bbclaurak that Boris Johnson was a "great" prime minister and partygate was "overblown".
Badenoch's interview on Kuenssberg was very interesting and she is quite impressive
I think she may well surprise her opponents, even confound them
I would suggest it would be foolhardy to underestimate her
Good to see you on board. I think she is in principle okay, but Cleverly would have moved the dial very much more in your favour.
It is the first time I have heard her interviewed, and she was confident and very much pro business and anti big government which is a breath of fresh air from some previous conservatives
She needs to get a grip on facts though. It has taken her less than 24 hours to make her first blunder. The increase in Employer NICs will NOT be levied on the NHS. She really should have known that.
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm finding this US election quite stressful, largely because a) it's important, and b) I've absolutely no idea who's going to win - and I don't believe anybody else knows either. It's the hope that stresses you.
To be honest I have no stress as I have no doubt Harris will win
Let's all be positive
Fair enough, but how can you possibly be so confident?
Both my sons are now in NY and both voted Harris (1 in NC, 1 in NY). However both of them are not nearly as confident as you are are. The old Confederate lines are being drawn. My take is that NC and Georgia are going for Trump. The fight is PA as always. To counter my sons the whole of the rest of their family, white college educated are voting Trump in NC. About 12 to 2 for Trump.
If Trump was to win AZ, NV and GA plus his 2020 wins and also picks up NH, that gets him to 269.
If Trump wins NM and not NH, he gets to 270. 274 if he also takes NH.
Kemi Badenoch says she would reverse the introduction of VAT on private school fees.
Labour popping champagne corks.
The Tories fighting last years battles - by the time the Tories come back into power (even if it's 2028) what's left of the private school sector won't need the change and probably couldn't cope with the extra demand..
You really think anything this Government does is going to last the time it takes to repeal something after their unmourned demise?
Yes.
All Governments always do making lasting changes.
I don't.
But @BartholomewRoberts is correct. Although Governments do sometimes change what an outgoing government introduced, many, if not most, if not nearly all changes a government makes are not changed by an incoming government, particularly social changes. One can make a huge list of major changes that following government don't change and even support although they opposed in opposition.
Indeed.
Anyone thinking this Government won't make any lasting changes is as naïve as those who thought that Brexit would be immediately reversed by Keir Starmer.
The truth is that all Governments make changes and when a new Government is elected its elected based on the status quo of what the last lot left you with, and the new Government is elected with its own new priorities - priorities are not simply spending five years reversing what the last lot did.
Not only that, but I think more importantly most "changes", especially Labour ones, are about blowing other people's money on fashionable causes to buy votes. When you do that, you generally create powerful interest groups who don't want their money taken away, and can kick up a fight. And, often, the general public won't even notice the trivial changes in taxation that result from reversing an individual spending decision. It's most obvious for spending decisions, but often applies to other government decisions as well.
That's why changes a government introduces tend to be a one way ratchet, even though they generally deliver poor outcomes and have lots of unintended effects, and why it takes a government with incredible courage, persistence and bloody-mindedness to reverse them, and incidentally why this country (and most of Western Europe) is stuck in a high-tax, high-spending, stagnation doom loop.
Been reading a book called 'How to fight a war' by former soldier turned Lib Dem MP Mike Martin. It's a good read, like his other book 'Why we fight', though it just cements my astonishment that human beings are capable of mass warfare, because the enormities of logistical supply are mind boggling just on the level of providing food, fuel, and underpants
Never mind any moral objections to fighting it is hard to believe we are administratively capable of such orgnisation as a species.
The dark heart of Scottish Nationalism rears its ugly head once again, like all demagogues they go after the lawyers.
Humza Yousaf, the former first minister in Scotland, has apologised to a senior barrister for referring to him as a "Tory f*ckwit".
Yousaf used the slur against Roddy Dunlop KC, the Dean of the Faculty of Advocates, in a WhatsApp conversation, which was released following of Freedom of Information request by a member of the public.
Yousaf, who was health secretary at the time, had been been exchanging messages during the pandemic with Professor Leitch, who was the then Scottish government's national clinical director.
In one exchange in May 2021, the senior SNP minister wrote to Leitch saying: "Dunlop is a Tory f*ckwit. Remember Twitter isn't real life!".
The exact context is slightly murky, as some messages were redacted. But it seems to relate to a Twitter spat between Dunlop and Professor Leitch during the pandemic, over the merits of holding a fan zone in Glasgow for the Euros, while the city was under restrictions.
Yes, if Trump wins Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Harris then has to win Georgia and North Carolina.
That poll suggests she would but by a mere 1-2%
She'd take that though!
But would her opponent? He's not known for accepting the results of democratic elections unless they favour him!
It's not up to him. The US system is very experienced in dealing with frivolously contested elections
Not at this level. It didn't fall down last time, but if Pence had been more willing it would at the least have gotten more dangerous than it already was.
And this time you have Speaker Johnson and statehouses across the country primed to go further than last time, if they think they can.
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm finding this US election quite stressful, largely because a) it's important, and b) I've absolutely no idea who's going to win - and I don't believe anybody else knows either. It's the hope that stresses you.
To be honest I have no stress as I have no doubt Harris will win
Let's all be positive
Fair enough, but how can you possibly be so confident?
I really cannot answer it other than my instinct says Harris will win
Maybe I am also relaxed as I do not bet and have no stress over any betting position !!!!
Wednesday 6th November will see President Harris
Though how she performs in the role I have no idea
1. Americans don't call the winner "President" till January 20 2. And the networks will call this week's winner around the time the polls close on the West Coast.
Tuesday November 5 will see President Elect Harris
Trump? He'll be hammered. The only thing left to debate is whether he'll be led away to a golf course, a jail or an insane asylum.
Mods: I've got a 700 word piece summarising why I'm certain. Email me if you'd like to run a summary of that summary.
Been reading a book called 'How to fight a war' by former soldier turned Lib Dem MP Mike Martin. It's a good read, like his other book 'Why we fight', though it just cements my astonishment that human beings are capable of mass warfare, because the enormities of logistical supply are mind boggling just on the level of providing food, fuel, and underpants
Never mind any moral objections to fighting it is hard to believe we are administratively capable of such orgnisation as a species.
That we ARE capable is why 'we' won and not the Neanderthal's. Who weren't. Or indeed any of the other advanced hominid species.
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm finding this US election quite stressful, largely because a) it's important, and b) I've absolutely no idea who's going to win - and I don't believe anybody else knows either. It's the hope that stresses you.
To be honest I have no stress as I have no doubt Harris will win
Let's all be positive
Fair enough, but how can you possibly be so confident?
I really cannot answer it other than my instinct says Harris will win
Maybe I am also relaxed as I do not bet and have no stress over any betting position !!!!
Wednesday 6th November will see President Harris
Though how she performs in the role I have no idea
1. Americans don't call the winner "President" till January 20
By contrast, Rishi Sunak vacated Number 10 within 24 hours of losing the election back in July.
The dark heart of Scottish Nationalism rears its ugly head once again, like all demagogues they go after the lawyers.
Humza Yousaf, the former first minister in Scotland, has apologised to a senior barrister for referring to him as a "Tory f*ckwit".
Yousaf used the slur against Roddy Dunlop KC, the Dean of the Faculty of Advocates, in a WhatsApp conversation, which was released following of Freedom of Information request by a member of the public.
Yousaf, who was health secretary at the time, had been been exchanging messages during the pandemic with Professor Leitch, who was the then Scottish government's national clinical director.
In one exchange in May 2021, the senior SNP minister wrote to Leitch saying: "Dunlop is a Tory f*ckwit. Remember Twitter isn't real life!".
The exact context is slightly murky, as some messages were redacted. But it seems to relate to a Twitter spat between Dunlop and Professor Leitch during the pandemic, over the merits of holding a fan zone in Glasgow for the Euros, while the city was under restrictions.
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm finding this US election quite stressful, largely because a) it's important, and b) I've absolutely no idea who's going to win - and I don't believe anybody else knows either. It's the hope that stresses you.
To be honest I have no stress as I have no doubt Harris will win
Let's all be positive
Fair enough, but how can you possibly be so confident?
I really cannot answer it other than my instinct says Harris will win
Maybe I am also relaxed as I do not bet and have no stress over any betting position !!!!
Wednesday 6th November will see President Harris
Though how she performs in the role I have no idea
1. Americans don't call the winner "President" till January 20
Though they then call the winner President for the rest of the lives!
In the case of Trump supporters often even call him 'the President', rather than merely President Trump.
As antidote to the header the only actual voting data AFAIK shows a slight advantage to Trump. Nevada is a battleground state won by Biden last time where almost all the votes are submitted and counted early. It looks very close at the moment but GOP marginally ahead.
They only need to split 125k R to 176k D to have the state evenly split.
And that assumes the R number doesn't include a bunch of Haley voters for Harris. Nevada had a really messed up Caucus (Trump dominated) and Primary (where Haley got 30% of the votes cast). Stick 10,000 Haley Republicans in the mix and the split only needs to be 135k Republicans to 166k Democrats amongst those No party affiliation.
Even more interesting, the designation of No part affiliation for those who get a new drivers licence should greatly skew to younger voters. Who skew greatly towards Harris.
Point is, there is no certainty that the Republican lead in Nevada is 45,000. Or indeed, any lead at all.
I believe the Nevada guru, Ralston, has said he will post later on Sunday with his latest updated view on early voting.
That's one prediction that should prove reliable *.
* Subject to him tripping over his shoelaces and breaking a leg.
Ralston has been very open about his relative lack of confidence in calling this election, compared to the rest. But he’s a lot more likely to be right than most.
Yes, if Trump wins Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Harris then has to win Georgia and North Carolina.
That poll suggests she would but by a mere 1-2%
She'd take that though!
But would her opponent? He's not known for accepting the results of democratic elections unless they favour him!
It's not up to him. The US system is very experienced in dealing with frivolously contested elections
Not at this level. It didn't fall down last time, but if Pence had been more willing it would at the least have gotten more dangerous than it already was.
And this time you have Speaker Johnson and statehouses across the country primed to go further than last time, if they think they can.
The current vice-president doesn't work for Trump and statehouses don't really have a role after the election. State governors do have a role, but they're mostly either Dems or Georgia Republicans.
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm finding this US election quite stressful, largely because a) it's important, and b) I've absolutely no idea who's going to win - and I don't believe anybody else knows either. It's the hope that stresses you.
To be honest I have no stress as I have no doubt Harris will win
Let's all be positive
Fair enough, but how can you possibly be so confident?
I really cannot answer it other than my instinct says Harris will win
Maybe I am also relaxed as I do not bet and have no stress over any betting position !!!!
Wednesday 6th November will see President Harris
Though how she performs in the role I have no idea
1. Americans don't call the winner "President" till January 20 2. And the networks will call this week's winner around the time the polls close on the West Coast.
Tuesday November 5 will see President Elect Harris
Trump? He'll be hammered. The only thing left to debate is whether he'll be led away to a golf course, a jail or an insane asylum.
Mods: I've got a 700 word piece summarising why I'm certain. Email me if you'd like to run a summary of that summary.
In this case the prevailing sentiment being: "Donald Trump back? - No."
I really hope so. Isn't 8 years of him enough, America? Aren't you tired of it? How many times are we going to hear him talk about how great he is, and how nasty everyone is to him?
The dark heart of Scottish Nationalism rears its ugly head once again, like all demagogues they go after the lawyers.
Humza Yousaf, the former first minister in Scotland, has apologised to a senior barrister for referring to him as a "Tory f*ckwit".
Yousaf used the slur against Roddy Dunlop KC, the Dean of the Faculty of Advocates, in a WhatsApp conversation, which was released following of Freedom of Information request by a member of the public.
Yousaf, who was health secretary at the time, had been been exchanging messages during the pandemic with Professor Leitch, who was the then Scottish government's national clinical director.
In one exchange in May 2021, the senior SNP minister wrote to Leitch saying: "Dunlop is a Tory f*ckwit. Remember Twitter isn't real life!".
The exact context is slightly murky, as some messages were redacted. But it seems to relate to a Twitter spat between Dunlop and Professor Leitch during the pandemic, over the merits of holding a fan zone in Glasgow for the Euros, while the city was under restrictions.
Kemi Badenoch tells @bbclaurak that Boris Johnson was a "great" prime minister and partygate was "overblown".
Badenoch's interview on Kuenssberg was very interesting and she is quite impressive
I think she may well surprise her opponents, even confound them
I would suggest it would be foolhardy to underestimate her
Good to see you on board. I think she is in principle okay, but Cleverly would have moved the dial very much more in your favour.
It is the first time I have heard her interviewed, and she was confident and very much pro business and anti big government which is a breath of fresh air from some previous conservatives
She needs to get a grip on facts though. It has taken her less than 24 hours to make her first blunder. The increase in Employer NICs will NOT be levied on the NHS. She really should have known that.
This is a silly discussion. Like all taxation on public sector workers, it all nets out in the end. Badenoch didn't make a material mistake. And the GP thing is too narrow a focus - the public sector contracts out billions and billions to the private sector like Serco, G4S etc - that difference will have to made up too if those services are to continue to be provided.
The NICs change will have some interesting effects. It makes capital investment in the public sector (and elsewhere) relatively cheaper compared with labour, so it might have long term effects on productivity. We might see higher rates of structural unemployment, a la France. Otoh, it's yet another tax on "working people", particularly at the bottom.
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Kemi is more agnostic Catholic than evangelical. Her husband Hamish is Roman Catholic.
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
Nominal Roman Catholic, with Anglican quantities of Fudge.
This is interesting:
My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.
Both her parents were Yoruba, which is (roughly or in part - open to correction on details) a large but not dominant tribe which went from traditional African religion to part Muslim, predominantly Christian, is mainly urban, was on the winning side in the Biafran War, and in the past was active as slavers. The new religion would incorporate elements of the old, usually.
Fascinating mix. Heritage formed mainly in the 1910 to 1940 period by the look of it.
Slavers you say? Even less keen on reparations than your average right wing Tory then.
I thought only White folks were involved in the Slave Trade?
Kemi Badenoch tells @bbclaurak that Boris Johnson was a "great" prime minister and partygate was "overblown".
Badenoch's interview on Kuenssberg was very interesting and she is quite impressive
I think she may well surprise her opponents, even confound them
I would suggest it would be foolhardy to underestimate her
Good to see you on board. I think she is in principle okay, but Cleverly would have moved the dial very much more in your favour.
It is the first time I have heard her interviewed, and she was confident and very much pro business and anti big government which is a breath of fresh air from some previous conservatives
She needs to get a grip on facts though. It has taken her less than 24 hours to make her first blunder. The increase in Employer NICs will NOT be levied on the NHS. She really should have known that.
This is a silly discussion. Like all taxation on public sector workers, it all nets out in the end. Badenoch didn't make a material mistake. And the GP thing is too narrow a focus - the public sector contracts out billions and billions to the private sector like Serco, G4S etc - that difference will have to made up too if those services are to continue to be provided.
The NICs change will have some interesting effects. It makes capital investment in the public sector (and elsewhere) relatively cheaper compared with labour, so it might have long term effects on productivity. We might see higher rates of structural unemployment, a la France. Otoh, it's yet another tax on "working people", particularly at the bottom.
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?
People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.
It's not just those particular women. Maternity services clinics have been closing, to the extent that some women are giving birth out of state. And fairly or not (there are other funding issues beyond the resulting difficulties for practitioner insurance), Dobbs is getting blamed.
There have been a number of determined attempts to attack abortion rights in other states. From the anti-abortion states. This has riled people up, to the point that anti-abortion activists have urged toning down of such behaviour - they are worried about the effect this has on public opinion.
Of course it's an issue in every state. But in some, it's an issue which will touch (and potentially shift the vote of) some people that it wouldn't in another state.
The evident, and determined, attempts to override the states on this, are especially egregious.
Firstly because of decades of rhetoric to the effect that over turning Roe vs Wade would leave matters to the states. Which makes what is happening a massive u turn.
Secondly, in American politics, one state attempting to impose on another is particularly toxic. If the Feds mandate something, there is a bit of a grump - but that’s how things roll. But for a state to go after citizens in another state, using state law….
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm finding this US election quite stressful, largely because a) it's important, and b) I've absolutely no idea who's going to win - and I don't believe anybody else knows either. It's the hope that stresses you.
To be honest I have no stress as I have no doubt Harris will win
Let's all be positive
Fair enough, but how can you possibly be so confident?
I really cannot answer it other than my instinct says Harris will win
Maybe I am also relaxed as I do not bet and have no stress over any betting position !!!!
Wednesday 6th November will see President Harris
Though how she performs in the role I have no idea
1. Americans don't call the winner "President" till January 20 2. And the networks will call this week's winner around the time the polls close on the West Coast.
Tuesday November 5 will see President Elect Harris
Trump? He'll be hammered. The only thing left to debate is whether he'll be led away to a golf course, a jail or an insane asylum.
Mods: I've got a 700 word piece summarising why I'm certain. Email me if you'd like to run a summary of that summary.
How are the networks going to call it on 5th?
Fox either won't call it at all, after their viewers pilloried then for calling Arizona for Biden I think it was, which led them to all their Dominion defamation which ended up costing then $800m, or they will call it for Trump regardless of what things look like.
Kemi Badenoch tells @bbclaurak that Boris Johnson was a "great" prime minister and partygate was "overblown".
Badenoch's interview on Kuenssberg was very interesting and she is quite impressive
I think she may well surprise her opponents, even confound them
I would suggest it would be foolhardy to underestimate her
Good to see you on board. I think she is in principle okay, but Cleverly would have moved the dial very much more in your favour.
It is the first time I have heard her interviewed, and she was confident and very much pro business and anti big government which is a breath of fresh air from some previous conservatives
She needs to get a grip on facts though. It has taken her less than 24 hours to make her first blunder. The increase in Employer NICs will NOT be levied on the NHS. She really should have known that.
But it’s true Kemi Badenoch’s famed laziness could be her Achilles Heel now she’s much more in the spotlight.
You could argue LOTO have pretty much nothing to actually do, apart from get out of bed Wednesday mornings and not turn up at cenotaph in Donkey Jacket. But truth is, LOTO have to be spot on in what they are saying in every media appearance and PMQ. And my experience lazy people are lazy people, and you can never ever change them in their lives. It’s who they are.
Been reading a book called 'How to fight a war' by former soldier turned Lib Dem MP Mike Martin. It's a good read, like his other book 'Why we fight', though it just cements my astonishment that human beings are capable of mass warfare, because the enormities of logistical supply are mind boggling just on the level of providing food, fuel, and underpants
Never mind any moral objections to fighting it is hard to believe we are administratively capable of such orgnisation as a species.
That we ARE capable is why 'we' won and not the Neanderthal's. Who weren't. Or indeed any of the other advanced hominid species.
Take that Homo Heidelbergensis!
Actually that there were other human specied around mere tens of thousands of years ago never ceases to blow my mind, give that advanced civilizations that we know of started to emerge 7-10 thousands years ago only.
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm finding this US election quite stressful, largely because a) it's important, and b) I've absolutely no idea who's going to win - and I don't believe anybody else knows either. It's the hope that stresses you.
To be honest I have no stress as I have no doubt Harris will win
Let's all be positive
Fair enough, but how can you possibly be so confident?
I really cannot answer it other than my instinct says Harris will win
Maybe I am also relaxed as I do not bet and have no stress over any betting position !!!!
Wednesday 6th November will see President Harris
Though how she performs in the role I have no idea
1. Americans don't call the winner "President" till January 20 2. And the networks will call this week's winner around the time the polls close on the West Coast.
Tuesday November 5 will see President Elect Harris
Trump? He'll be hammered. The only thing left to debate is whether he'll be led away to a golf course, a jail or an insane asylum.
Mods: I've got a 700 word piece summarising why I'm certain. Email me if you'd like to run a summary of that summary.
How are the networks going to call it on 5th?
By following the exit polls - the closest thing to an accurate poll the US has. And Harris will perform so well in the real world polls that they'll declare (by 2300 Eastern, which is poll closing time in California) that her victory is inevitable.
Arizona (notably, vs Nevada) is the intersting one, though. I’ve greened out on the state, as it’s the one where Democrat pundits (eg the pollsters on the ‘Pod Save’ crew) are least confident about their prospects.
Still in play, but I’d want longer odds.
But overall, it’s a set of polls which smells a bit of conventional wisdom. Could still be right, of course, but it doesn’t really add very much to the state of knowledge for Tuesday (other than the very big AZ/NV disparity).
So if there are definite signs of a move to Harris, will Trump have a serious talk with his advisers about toning it down and looking presidential for the next couple of days or b) GO FULL TONTO?
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Kemi is more agnostic Catholic than evangelical. Her husband Hamish is Roman Catholic.
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
Nominal Roman Catholic, with Anglican quantities of Fudge.
This is interesting:
My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.
Both her parents were Yoruba, which is (roughly or in part - open to correction on details) a large but not dominant tribe which went from traditional African religion to part Muslim, predominantly Christian, is mainly urban, was on the winning side in the Biafran War, and in the past was active as slavers. The new religion would incorporate elements of the old, usually.
Fascinating mix. Heritage formed mainly in the 1910 to 1940 period by the look of it.
Slavers you say? Even less keen on reparations than your average right wing Tory then.
I thought only White folks were involved in the Slave Trade?
Ha! Algerians .... the Barbary Coastals ..... and Arabs are not, of course, white. Tends to get forgotten.
So if there are serious signs of a move to Harris, will Trump have a serious talk with his advisers about toning it down and looking presidential for the next couple of days or b) GO FULL TONTO?
You have to ask? Would a man capable of a) have done...well, pretty much anything he does?
He does cheat on his wives, which is pretty presidential behaviour admittedly.
As antidote to the header the only actual voting data AFAIK shows a slight advantage to Trump. Nevada is a battleground state won by Biden last time where almost all the votes are submitted and counted early. It looks very close at the moment but GOP marginally ahead.
They only need to split 125k R to 176k D to have the state evenly split.
And that assumes the R number doesn't include a bunch of Haley voters for Harris. Nevada had a really messed up Caucus (Trump dominated) and Primary (where Haley got 30% of the votes cast). Stick 10,000 Haley Republicans in the mix and the split only needs to be 135k Republicans to 166k Democrats amongst those No party affiliation.
Even more interesting, the designation of No part affiliation for those who get a new drivers licence should greatly skew to younger voters. Who skew greatly towards Harris.
Point is, there is no certainty that the Republican lead in Nevada is 45,000. Or indeed, any lead at all.
I think the 44K Republican lead is votes submitted and counted, so it is a hard number. The purpose of the blog is to determine how likely the Democrats would overturn that advantage and go on to win, bearing in mind where the remaining votes will come from and how those areas have voted in the ballots so far.
Ralston expects the Republican advantage to be reduced given factors such as those you mention but a challenge for the Democrats to completely overcome. On my understanding. It is very close however.
The votes are submitted but I don't think they've been counted and publicly declared yet.
I think its based on affiliation, which typically would be a 1:1 ratio with counts but not always.
How many Republicans are of a Lincoln Project tendency who will vote against Trump despite being a registered Republican is unknown.
As too for fairness is how many registered Democrats who might still vote Trump.
There could be quite a few people voting the ‘wrong’ way for their registration.
The likes of Gabbard and Kennedy Democrats on one side, and the Lincoln Project and Haley Republicans on the other. Plenty of people who very much dislike the way their regular party has gone about selecting their andidate.
Is the former group significant ?
RFK Jnr, example, is just a nut who’s likely to turn off as many as he attracts. Not exactly comparable with the no-Trump Republicans.
The dark heart of Scottish Nationalism rears its ugly head once again, like all demagogues they go after the lawyers.
Humza Yousaf, the former first minister in Scotland, has apologised to a senior barrister for referring to him as a "Tory f*ckwit".
Yousaf used the slur against Roddy Dunlop KC, the Dean of the Faculty of Advocates, in a WhatsApp conversation, which was released following of Freedom of Information request by a member of the public.
Yousaf, who was health secretary at the time, had been been exchanging messages during the pandemic with Professor Leitch, who was the then Scottish government's national clinical director.
In one exchange in May 2021, the senior SNP minister wrote to Leitch saying: "Dunlop is a Tory f*ckwit. Remember Twitter isn't real life!".
The exact context is slightly murky, as some messages were redacted. But it seems to relate to a Twitter spat between Dunlop and Professor Leitch during the pandemic, over the merits of holding a fan zone in Glasgow for the Euros, while the city was under restrictions.
Yes, if Trump wins Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Harris then has to win Georgia and North Carolina.
That poll suggests she would but by a mere 1-2%
She'd take that though!
But would her opponent? He's not known for accepting the results of democratic elections unless they favour him!
It's not up to him. The US system is very experienced in dealing with frivolously contested elections
Not at this level. It didn't fall down last time, but if Pence had been more willing it would at the least have gotten more dangerous than it already was.
And this time you have Speaker Johnson and statehouses across the country primed to go further than last time, if they think they can.
The current vice-president doesn't work for Trump and statehouses don't really have a role after the election. State governors do have a role, but they're mostly either Dems or Georgia Republicans.
Oh, at least the VP option is not on the table for them this time. But the point stands that they were not really well prepared to act last time, Trump had not primed them sufficiently, and many more of them have been open about what they would have done differently.
Push come to shove will they actually do something of that kind? Possibly not, if the outcome is very clearly for Harris, and others like Kemp didn't bend last time so why this time, but Democrats have to be on the ball.
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Kemi is more agnostic Catholic than evangelical. Her husband Hamish is Roman Catholic.
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
Nominal Roman Catholic, with Anglican quantities of Fudge.
This is interesting:
My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.
Both her parents were Yoruba, which is (roughly or in part - open to correction on details) a large but not dominant tribe which went from traditional African religion to part Muslim, predominantly Christian, is mainly urban, was on the winning side in the Biafran War, and in the past was active as slavers. The new religion would incorporate elements of the old, usually.
Fascinating mix. Heritage formed mainly in the 1910 to 1940 period by the look of it.
Slavers you say? Even less keen on reparations than your average right wing Tory then.
I thought only White folks were involved in the Slave Trade?
I was specifically told by a trainer on one of the sensitivity courses, that non-white involvement in the slave trade was a Bad Fact.
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Kemi is more agnostic Catholic than evangelical. Her husband Hamish is Roman Catholic.
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
Nominal Roman Catholic, with Anglican quantities of Fudge.
This is interesting:
My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.
Both her parents were Yoruba, which is (roughly or in part - open to correction on details) a large but not dominant tribe which went from traditional African religion to part Muslim, predominantly Christian, is mainly urban, was on the winning side in the Biafran War, and in the past was active as slavers. The new religion would incorporate elements of the old, usually.
Fascinating mix. Heritage formed mainly in the 1910 to 1940 period by the look of it.
Slavers you say? Even less keen on reparations than your average right wing Tory then.
I thought only White folks were involved in the Slave Trade?
Ha! Algerians .... the Barbary Coastals ..... and Arabs are not, of course, white. Tends to get forgotten.
Many might have put White (other) on the census until the options were widened, however.
Kemi Badenoch tells @bbclaurak that Boris Johnson was a "great" prime minister and partygate was "overblown".
Badenoch's interview on Kuenssberg was very interesting and she is quite impressive
I think she may well surprise her opponents, even confound them
I would suggest it would be foolhardy to underestimate her
Good to see you on board. I think she is in principle okay, but Cleverly would have moved the dial very much more in your favour.
It is the first time I have heard her interviewed, and she was confident and very much pro business and anti big government which is a breath of fresh air from some previous conservatives
She needs to get a grip on facts though. It has taken her less than 24 hours to make her first blunder. The increase in Employer NICs will NOT be levied on the NHS. She really should have known that.
But it’s true Kemi Badenoch’s famed laziness could be her Achilles Heel now she’s much more in the spotlight.
You could argue LOTO have pretty much nothing to actually do, apart from get out of bed Wednesday mornings and not turn up at cenotaph in Donkey Jacket. But truth is, LOTO have to be spot on in what they are saying in every media appearance and PMQ. And my experience lazy people are lazy people, and you can never ever change them in their lives. It’s who they are.
Poor old Michael Foot. Turned up at the Cenotaph forty years ago in a British Warm Coat, presented to him by admirer, allegedly, and it's been misrepresented by the Right ever since!
So if there are definite signs of a move to Harris, will Trump have a serious talk with his advisers about toning it down and looking presidential for the next couple of days or b) GO FULL TONTO?
So if you're polling by either looking at whether individuals voted last time or weighting to your assumptions based on which groups voted last time, you'll miss these voters. This also seems to be how the pollsters missed in 2016 and 2020, except the people they missed were newly-activated Trump voters.
Been reading a book called 'How to fight a war' by former soldier turned Lib Dem MP Mike Martin. It's a good read, like his other book 'Why we fight', though it just cements my astonishment that human beings are capable of mass warfare, because the enormities of logistical supply are mind boggling just on the level of providing food, fuel, and underpants
Never mind any moral objections to fighting it is hard to believe we are administratively capable of such orgnisation as a species.
That we ARE capable is why 'we' won and not the Neanderthal's. Who weren't. Or indeed any of the other advanced hominid species.
Take that Homo Heidelbergensis!
Actually that there were other human specied around mere tens of thousands of years ago never ceases to blow my mind, give that advanced civilizations that we know of started to emerge 7-10 thousands years ago only.
Ah, but that's without any serious archaeology having been done on the lost lands flooded at the end of the Ice Age. Doggerland, the Persian Gulf, the vast Sunda Shelf connecting Malaysia/Indonesia (among others) would all have been above sea level 20,000 years ago.
Been reading a book called 'How to fight a war' by former soldier turned Lib Dem MP Mike Martin. It's a good read, like his other book 'Why we fight', though it just cements my astonishment that human beings are capable of mass warfare, because the enormities of logistical supply are mind boggling just on the level of providing food, fuel, and underpants
Never mind any moral objections to fighting it is hard to believe we are administratively capable of such orgnisation as a species.
That we ARE capable is why 'we' won and not the Neanderthal's. Who weren't. Or indeed any of the other advanced hominid species.
Have you read the William Golding novel, The Inheritors? Follow up to Lord of the Flies. Written from POV of a Neanderthal. Makes this point beautifully. Very poignant.
I don't know about anybody else, but I'm finding this US election quite stressful, largely because a) it's important, and b) I've absolutely no idea who's going to win - and I don't believe anybody else knows either. It's the hope that stresses you.
To be honest I have no stress as I have no doubt Harris will win
Let's all be positive
Fair enough, but how can you possibly be so confident?
I really cannot answer it other than my instinct says Harris will win
Maybe I am also relaxed as I do not bet and have no stress over any betting position !!!!
Wednesday 6th November will see President Harris
Though how she performs in the role I have no idea
1. Americans don't call the winner "President" till January 20 2. And the networks will call this week's winner around the time the polls close on the West Coast.
Tuesday November 5 will see President Elect Harris
Trump? He'll be hammered. The only thing left to debate is whether he'll be led away to a golf course, a jail or an insane asylum.
Mods: I've got a 700 word piece summarising why I'm certain. Email me if you'd like to run a summary of that summary.
How are the networks going to call it on 5th?
Fox either won't call it at all, after their viewers pilloried then for calling Arizona for Biden I think it was, which led them to all their Dominion defamation which ended up costing then $800m, or they will call it for Trump regardless of what things look like.
Generally it is AP who do the 'semi-official' calling it.
Been reading a book called 'How to fight a war' by former soldier turned Lib Dem MP Mike Martin. It's a good read, like his other book 'Why we fight', though it just cements my astonishment that human beings are capable of mass warfare, because the enormities of logistical supply are mind boggling just on the level of providing food, fuel, and underpants
Never mind any moral objections to fighting it is hard to believe we are administratively capable of such orgnisation as a species.
That we ARE capable is why 'we' won and not the Neanderthal's. Who weren't. Or indeed any of the other advanced hominid species.
Take that Homo Heidelbergensis!
Actually that there were other human specied around mere tens of thousands of years ago never ceases to blow my mind, give that advanced civilizations that we know of started to emerge 7-10 thousands years ago only.
I know; it is mind-boggling. According to Yuval Noah Harari and, I think, one or two others, anyway.
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I think this is why Badenoch was the better choice. Jenrick was continuity sleaze.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Badenoch’s weakness is that she is very tribal, aggressively so. The most successful politicians have the ability to look over the party horizon and sympathise without and understand voters that make other choices. She shares Corbyns disdain for the opposition. Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Kemi is more agnostic Catholic than evangelical. Her husband Hamish is Roman Catholic.
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
Nominal Roman Catholic, with Anglican quantities of Fudge.
This is interesting:
My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.
Both her parents were Yoruba, which is (roughly or in part - open to correction on details) a large but not dominant tribe which went from traditional African religion to part Muslim, predominantly Christian, is mainly urban, was on the winning side in the Biafran War, and in the past was active as slavers. The new religion would incorporate elements of the old, usually.
Fascinating mix. Heritage formed mainly in the 1910 to 1940 period by the look of it.
Slavers you say? Even less keen on reparations than your average right wing Tory then.
I thought only White folks were involved in the Slave Trade?
I was specifically told by a trainer on one of the sensitivity courses, that non-white involvement in the slave trade was a Bad Fact.
And I was told on here once that looking at the context of slavery across human history was just trying to excuse the transatlantic slave trade, despite explicitly stating slavery happening across history and in various places did not excuse its happening with us (nor ending it 'make up' for it). In fact I suggested context can sometimes make it look even worse.
So if you're polling by either looking at whether individuals voted last time or weighting to your assumptions based on which groups voted last time, you'll miss these voters. This also seems to be how the pollsters missed in 2016 and 2020, except the people they missed were newly-activated Trump voters.
Yes, that would account for a polling miss if it does turn out to be a comfortable Harris win.
All I’ll say is I’ve seen many, many occasions where people dismiss or act incredulously towards Setzer’s polls, only to end up with egg on their face. It doesn’t say to me Harris will win Iowa for sure, but it does tell me something about the race and that is that I suspect if there is a polling error it probably favours Harris this cycle.
IMO she's floundering at this point, and is vulnerable to being skewered on details - but Sir Keir needs some rhetoric/narrative as well, which we have not yet seen very much.
You thought that? I thought she was quite clear about what she was and what she wanted to be. The interviewer was trying to goad her into sticking the knife into Boris and Truss. She resisted. She kept to the pincher issue. She was reasonable in saying why should wouldnt introduce VAt on schooling. She might have been better with a response back with the detail of the policy showing that it wont raise anything like what is claimed.
She doesnt need razzle and dazzle, I dont even think she needs a retail offer for many years. She just needs to be appear competent and sound.
Very happy about my long term support for her so far.
As I saw he she avoided answering a number of questions that her pitch implies she should have answered, and was a long way short of the nimbleness with which other politicians would have dealt with it.
So if you're polling by either looking at whether individuals voted last time or weighting to your assumptions based on which groups voted last time, you'll miss these voters. This also seems to be how the pollsters missed in 2016 and 2020, except the people they missed were newly-activated Trump voters.
One question I would therefore have is whether Selzer's findings are symmetrical or asymmetrical especially when it comes to the gender question.
It makes sense that she is finding women voters who are coming out to vote for Harris who didn't vote before. But is she finding young male voters who the Trump campaign has been targeting via podcasts.
The dark heart of Scottish Nationalism rears its ugly head once again, like all demagogues they go after the lawyers.
Humza Yousaf, the former first minister in Scotland, has apologised to a senior barrister for referring to him as a "Tory f*ckwit".
Yousaf used the slur against Roddy Dunlop KC, the Dean of the Faculty of Advocates, in a WhatsApp conversation, which was released following of Freedom of Information request by a member of the public.
Yousaf, who was health secretary at the time, had been been exchanging messages during the pandemic with Professor Leitch, who was the then Scottish government's national clinical director.
In one exchange in May 2021, the senior SNP minister wrote to Leitch saying: "Dunlop is a Tory f*ckwit. Remember Twitter isn't real life!".
The exact context is slightly murky, as some messages were redacted. But it seems to relate to a Twitter spat between Dunlop and Professor Leitch during the pandemic, over the merits of holding a fan zone in Glasgow for the Euros, while the city was under restrictions.
Your bias is unbelievable, WTF has that got to do with nationalism, every clown knows there are Tories in Scotland as well. Yousef is th earse of arses but your post is bullshit of the highest order.
Kemi Badenoch tells @bbclaurak that Boris Johnson was a "great" prime minister and partygate was "overblown".
Badenoch's interview on Kuenssberg was very interesting and she is quite impressive
I think she may well surprise her opponents, even confound them
I would suggest it would be foolhardy to underestimate her
Good to see you on board. I think she is in principle okay, but Cleverly would have moved the dial very much more in your favour.
It is the first time I have heard her interviewed, and she was confident and very much pro business and anti big government which is a breath of fresh air from some previous conservatives
She needs to get a grip on facts though. It has taken her less than 24 hours to make her first blunder. The increase in Employer NICs will NOT be levied on the NHS. She really should have known that.
But it’s true Kemi Badenoch’s famed laziness could be her Achilles Heel now she’s much more in the spotlight.
You could argue LOTO have pretty much nothing to actually do, apart from get out of bed Wednesday mornings and not turn up at cenotaph in Donkey Jacket. But truth is, LOTO have to be spot on in what they are saying in every media appearance and PMQ. And my experience lazy people are lazy people, and you can never ever change them in their lives. It’s who they are.
Poor old Michael Foot. Turned up at the Cenotaph forty years ago in a British Warm Coat, presented to him by admirer, allegedly, and it's been misrepresented by the Right ever since!
Political folklore, almost metaphor and allegory - like tanks on the lawn, winter of discontent, beer and sandwiches at number 10.
It was actually Lord Ali’s Great Uncle who gave Foot the coat, if you want a 110% true fact.
Comments
“My mother’s father. My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.”
ConHome: “And where did he practice?”
Badenoch: “In Nigeria. I was born here [in Wimbledon], but I call myself first generation, because I grew up in Nigeria and I chose to come back here. So I’m agnostic really, but I was brought up with cultural Christian values.”
ConHome: “Have you had your children baptised?”
Badenoch: “Yes, because I’m married to a Catholic [she and Hamish Badenoch, whose mother emigrated from Ireland, have two children].”
ConHome: “They’re being brought up as Catholics, are they?”
Badenoch: “Yes. So I’m an honorary or associate member of the Catholic Church. That’s what I call it.”
https://conservativehome.com/2017/12/21/interview-kemi-badenoch-im-not-really-left-leaning-on-anything-i-always-lean-right-instinctively/
The likes of Gabbard and Kennedy Democrats on one side, and the Lincoln Project and Haley Republicans on the other. Plenty of people who very much dislike the way their regular party has gone about selecting their andidate.
If 68 as currently in sight, then that is 14-15 years duration, compared with a full working life of 40-45 years and a minimum required contribution period of 30 years.
She doesnt need razzle and dazzle, I dont even think she needs a retail offer for many years. She just needs to be appear competent and sound.
Very happy about my long term support for her so far.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMtkKiyrXic
Nominal Roman Catholic, with Anglican quantities of Fudge.
This is interesting:
My paternal grandmother was a Muslim, though to be fair she did convert in later life. My family’s sort of Anglican and Methodist. My maternal grandfather was a Methodist reverend.
Both her parents were Yoruba, which is (roughly or in part - open to correction on details) a large but not dominant tribe which went from traditional African religion to part Muslim, predominantly Christian, is mainly urban, was on the winning side in the Biafran War, and in the past was active as slavers. The new religion would incorporate elements of the old, usually.
Fascinating mix. Heritage formed mainly in the 1910 to 1940 period by the look of it.
After the 2025 counties the Tories will not be defending so much so will start making gains again.
In all of those areas, if the new Government can noticeably improve things, they are nailed.
The Eternal Problem of Opposition: you have no agency. And the previous Govt left a wide-open field.
Even less keen on reparations than your average right wing Tory then.
https://x.com/realsaavedra/status/1852839330596769897
He says that they have enough mad stuff that Trump actually says that they can use to attack him, without needing to make stuff up about him that just enables his supporters to remind each other that they don’t hate the media enough.
He’s also not happy with Biden for the “garbage” comment, compares it it to Hillary’s “deplorables” from 2016.
GPs, Care Homes, Pharmacies and more will all be paying Employers NICs.
As will businesses of course.
Maybe I am also relaxed as I do not bet and have no stress over any betting position !!!!
Wednesday 6th November will see President Harris
Though how she performs in the role I have no idea
https://bsky.app/profile/proptermalone.bsky.social/post/3la22fb4tpc2y
For my part - based on what we have Ralston saying, yet pollsters like sienna +3 Kam - I’m thinking Especially registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about the business quietly and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes.
Trump/Kam canvesser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, as they don’t want it seeping out…
“have you voted, can you tell me who for?”
“Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Trump.”
A tight election can be decided in a surprise due to Snorkelling.
Is Ralston considering snorkelling at all? 🤿
I hope someone can explain where this money is from as it is a huge sum
In this case the prevailing sentiment being: "Donald Trump back? - No."
If Trump wins NM and not NH, he gets to 270. 274 if he also takes NH.
In neither case, would he than need PA.
Karma's a bitch eh Max?
That's why changes a government introduces tend to be a one way ratchet, even though they generally deliver poor outcomes and have lots of unintended effects, and why it takes a government with incredible courage, persistence and bloody-mindedness to reverse them, and incidentally why this country (and most of Western Europe) is stuck in a high-tax, high-spending, stagnation doom loop.
Never mind any moral objections to fighting it is hard to believe we are administratively capable of such orgnisation as a species.
Humza Yousaf, the former first minister in Scotland, has apologised to a senior barrister for referring to him as a "Tory f*ckwit".
Yousaf used the slur against Roddy Dunlop KC, the Dean of the Faculty of Advocates, in a WhatsApp conversation, which was released following of Freedom of Information request by a member of the public.
Yousaf, who was health secretary at the time, had been been exchanging messages during the pandemic with Professor Leitch, who was the then Scottish government's national clinical director.
In one exchange in May 2021, the senior SNP minister wrote to Leitch saying: "Dunlop is a Tory f*ckwit. Remember Twitter isn't real life!".
The exact context is slightly murky, as some messages were redacted. But it seems to relate to a Twitter spat between Dunlop and Professor Leitch during the pandemic, over the merits of holding a fan zone in Glasgow for the Euros, while the city was under restrictions.
https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/humza-yousaf-apologises-calling-kc-tory-fckwit
And this time you have Speaker Johnson and statehouses across the country primed to go further than last time, if they think they can.
2. And the networks will call this week's winner around the time the polls close on the West Coast.
Tuesday November 5 will see President Elect Harris
Trump? He'll be hammered. The only thing left to debate is whether he'll be led away to a golf course, a jail or an insane asylum.
Mods: I've got a 700 word piece summarising why I'm certain. Email me if you'd like to run a summary of that summary.
But he is a great big whiner, it's quite an unattractive quality.
Give all these red flags....
In the case of Trump supporters often even call him 'the President', rather than merely President Trump.
But he’s a lot more likely to be right than most.
The NICs change will have some interesting effects. It makes capital investment in the public sector (and elsewhere) relatively cheaper compared with labour, so it might have long term effects on productivity. We might see higher rates of structural unemployment, a la France. Otoh, it's yet another tax on "working people", particularly at the bottom.
Yep, that's my only point.
Firstly because of decades of rhetoric to the effect that over turning Roe vs Wade would leave matters to the states. Which makes what is happening a massive u turn.
Secondly, in American politics, one state attempting to impose on another is particularly toxic. If the Feds mandate something, there is a bit of a grump - but that’s how things roll. But for a state to go after citizens in another state, using state law….
EDIT: Did I just press "send"???
You could argue LOTO have pretty much nothing to actually do, apart from get out of bed Wednesday mornings and not turn up at cenotaph in Donkey Jacket. But truth is, LOTO have to be spot on in what they are saying in every media appearance and PMQ. And my experience lazy people are lazy people, and you can never ever change them in their lives. It’s who they are.
Actually that there were other human specied around mere tens of thousands of years ago never ceases to blow my mind, give that advanced civilizations that we know of started to emerge 7-10 thousands years ago only.
Arizona (notably, vs Nevada) is the intersting one, though. I’ve greened out on the state, as it’s the one where Democrat pundits (eg the pollsters on the ‘Pod Save’ crew) are least confident about their prospects.
Still in play, but I’d want longer odds.
But overall, it’s a set of polls which smells a bit of conventional wisdom.
Could still be right, of course, but it doesn’t really add very much to the state of knowledge for Tuesday (other than the very big AZ/NV disparity).
He does cheat on his wives, which is pretty presidential behaviour admittedly.
RFK Jnr, example, is just a nut who’s likely to turn off as many as he attracts.
Not exactly comparable with the no-Trump Republicans.
Push come to shove will they actually do something of that kind? Possibly not, if the outcome is very clearly for Harris, and others like Kemp didn't bend last time so why this time, but Democrats have to be on the ball.
Or they might just lose anyway of course.
Poor old Michael Foot. Turned up at the Cenotaph forty years ago in a British Warm Coat, presented to him by admirer, allegedly, and it's been misrepresented by the Right ever since!
Is there a 12?
https://bsky.app/profile/proptermalone.bsky.social/post/3la22fb4tpc2y
So if you're polling by either looking at whether individuals voted last time or weighting to your assumptions based on which groups voted last time, you'll miss these voters. This also seems to be how the pollsters missed in 2016 and 2020, except the people they missed were newly-activated Trump voters.
Big crash.
Fox of course goes its own way.
Kamala Harris is not winning Iowa.
I’m so certain of it I’ll castrate myself on camera if it happens.
These people are just full of absolute sh*t in the final days of this election.
@franklinleonard
Iowans have the opportunity to do something truly hilarious.
All I’ll say is I’ve seen many, many occasions where people dismiss or act incredulously towards Setzer’s polls, only to end up with egg on their face. It doesn’t say to me Harris will win Iowa for sure, but it does tell me something about the race and that is that I suspect if there is a polling error it probably favours Harris this cycle.
It makes sense that she is finding women voters who are coming out to vote for Harris who didn't vote before. But is she finding young male voters who the Trump campaign has been targeting via podcasts.
It was actually Lord Ali’s Great Uncle who gave Foot the coat, if you want a 110% true fact.