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Cat meet pigeons – politicalbetting.com
Cat meet pigeons – politicalbetting.com
Seltzer poll: Harris 47, Trump 44 in Iowa https://t.co/ly7ERGpvEB
1
Cat meet pigeons – politicalbetting.com
Seltzer poll: Harris 47, Trump 44 in Iowa https://t.co/ly7ERGpvEB
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F1: I'm going to have a tiny bet on Hulkenberg to win qualifying each way. He did this years ago, in a Williams, on a wet-but-drying track. If you've got a free £1 bet or suchlike, this is when to use it.
Edited extra bit: those odds shift to 61 with boost, or you can back him at 200 on Betfair.
Edited 2, Edit Harder: backed with a pound or two at 210 on Betfair, set up a covering hedge at 20 and a green-each-way one at 5. Unlikely but not impossible.
That's one I'd thought of as a possible target early on - Obama nearly took it in 2008 - but assumed from the belief the race was very close would be out of reach for Harris.
It's also got an abortion ballot...and the Republican Senate candidate has been leading the drive to enforce Dobbs v Jackson.
I thought I was supporting the dark-horse in the race
Maybe Night Mare would be more appropriate? Just a question of whose..
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?
https://x.com/emptywheel/status/1852852742449983807
@lyzl
People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.
https://x.com/lyzl/status/1852854833285570566
@CharlotteAlter
Senior women supporting Harris by a 2-1 margin in Iowa poll is a reminder that it's not just young women who care about abortion.
Over a long life, almost every woman has either experienced a miscarriage or helped a close friend through one. They know how personal this is.
https://x.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1852878321236971743
The new Tory leader takes charge with a tepid endorsement from her party’s members, two-thirds of her parliamentary colleagues preferring someone else and prominent names declaring that they have no desire to serve in her shadow cabinet.
In her acceptance speech, she described the task ahead as “tough”, which is an understatement. The July election was the worst result for the Conservative party, both in terms of vote share and seats won, since 1832. I am not among those who think this means the Tories can never recover. They have been pronounced dead and buried in the past only then to rise from the grave. But they are unlikely to start recovering until – and unless – they have an honest reckoning with themselves about their multiple failings in government.
Surveys suggest that very few voters think the Conservatives lost the election because they were too left wing while the majority of those with an opinion put it down to their incompetence.
One of the biggest challenges for the new leader of the opposition, and especially when the Tory parliamentary presence is so small, will be persuading voters to pay them any heed. The case made for Mrs Badenoch by her promoters is that she is “box office” with a gift for grabbing attention. What she has often failed to grasp is that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of attention. “Still in development” is the assessment of one reasonably sympathetic senior Tory.
Conservatives have displayed next to no interest in atoning for all the things voters came to loathe about them. There has never been a comprehensive repudiation of Boris Johnson for debauching standards in public life. Nor has there been an expression of suitably abject contrition for Liz Truss’s calamitous experiment with the economy. Nor have senior Tories had the humility to acknowledge that they left a super-massive black hole in the Treasury’s books. When you have fouled up as badly and as repeatedly as the Conservatives did in government, the first step to redemption with the electorate is to own your blunders and express regret for them.
Even if voters become persistently discontented with Sir Keir’s government, the Tories are delusional if they imagine that this means the public will simply collapse back into their embrace and tell the Conservatives all is forgiven. Not least because so far the Tories have been almost completely incapable of recognising how much forgiveness they will need before they are taken seriously again. If Kemi Badenoch wants to get a hearing from the British people, she is first going to have to say sorry. And she is going to have to say it a lot.
I have £22 at average odds of 12.15 on betfair, so £245 if Selzer is right, and topped up with a tenner at 12/1 on Ladbrokes when this dropped.
I think there is a Walz effect as well as a woman effect, but will have to see if it's real on Wednesday, and also how generalisable.
Kudos to Selzer for not herding, too. Nice to see a pollster with some balls. Or is that ovaries?
The interesting issue is that there is supposedly more rain coming for the race - so do you set the car up for now and do well in qualifying or set it up for the race and hope to overtake
For example, I made £400 on Obama winning Indiana in 2008.
Kemi's victory speech was clear that big mistakes were made by the Tories in office and that they need to have a long hard look at themselves.
Her musings in the past that WFP should be scrapped (which she rowed back on when it became Labour policy) and on Maternity pay being too generous shows a real willingness to make deep cuts to welfare and pensions in order to move to a low tax country.
I wonder if she has the courage to scrap the Triple Lock. She just might.
Qualifying is at 07:30 (10:30 GMT)
Race is at 12:30 (15:30 GMT)
The race time is half an hour earlier than originally scheduled, to give them a bigger weather window as they’re expecting more rain. Adjust your Sky TV boxes accordingly if you’ve set it to record.
"In 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Rishi Sunak, 141,725 members out of about 172,000 voted. However, by Saturday there were only 131,680 Tory members eligible to vote for the next leader, a drop of 23%."
And as only 95,000 of those voted looks as if actual paying membership will drop further.
Fewer members means less money.
The one hopeful possibility is that the pollster-shy voters turn out to be the female family members of the vocal male Trump voters, who go to the polls and quietly vote for Harris…
That said, I saw a tiny bit of Sky yesterday and James Vowles (Williams boss) asserted there's much less difference between a wet and dry setup now than in the past.
Evangelical self righteousness makes big tent politics far harder.
Have they simply not learned that while the TV schedules are suboptimal the weather waits for nobody?
The nations demographics are such that we need to contribute more, work longer and get less. This is even more true in other countries. The demographics of South Korea or Taiwan are the future.
Even if they were about level, there's 3%-4% more women voting than men in recent previous elections. That could easily be 4-5% this time. Maybe even 6%. Enough to win the EC on its own.
But there are other factors in play. Shy Republicans not telling anyone how they will vote - just because. Trump supporters are not folk you want to admit your vote to. Just nod and "uh-huh" as they spout off. Then go vote for Harris. They won't all be Haley voters, but enough to make a difference.
This is a dramatization of the Selzer Iowa poll
https://x.com/stuartpstevens/status/1852890292182999234
https://x.com/ztpetrizzo/status/1852760852291559680?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
If Trump fails to win Iowa by at least 7%, he's in trouble.
He's in trouble.
That's a 3% swing against him, I think?
If there's a 3% swing against him across the Midwest he's screwed.
If, of course, this isn' t an outlier.
I think she is quite socially conservative herself, but the key issue is whether she wants to force that social conservatism on the rest of us, or whether she actually believes in freedom.
A lot depends on the voices around the top table. Do we know who will be her top shadows yet?
Probably a leap too far, but - if Iowa is right...
Most of the polling at Presidential level has been Trump winning by 6-8%. But the most recent Miamai University poll only had Trump by 3%.
Worth a small punt I'd say, if the late-breakers and shy Harris voters are a thing.
I mean, he's being sentenced for election crimes about 2 weeks after the election. Does he want to be standing in front of the judge still actively committing them?
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/whoever-wins-us-election-2024-american-discord-kamala-harris-trump-phcfz5qfk
She'll suffer flak - and Labour may pledge to keep it to try and outflank her - but I think the Tories only chance to junk this is in Opposition, it will play well to younger/ middle-aged voter and so that, by the time of the next election, it's no longer a big issue.
Let's call it tight still, but I'm hoping this is the scales off moment for this election, like Matt Singh (?) 2015 or Herdson 2017.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/03/its-not-just-shameful-it-is-humiliating-four-celebrated-authors-on-their-hopes-and-fears-before-the-2024-us-election
The observation in one of them that people tend to like Trump less, the more they see of him, is another source of hope, given the amount of exposure he’s had during the campaign.
The reasons: support for fundamental principles; and/or access to the power/money/jobs greasy pole at some level, from Great Snoring Parish Council to Prime Minister to business person.
The Tories stood for: competence, moderation, wealth creation, a Burkean view of change, small platoons, sound defence, self reliance, a degree of equality of opportunity, no interest in equality of outcomes.
I can't give an account at this moment of what set of principles anyone would join for. If that is so, then it will be dominated by chancers.
No poll is better than its sample.
He won't take this one
Just as watchable, but, the story doesn't offer any closure. It veers off in a new direction solely for the purpose of setting up Season 3
I hate that
But, so does Emerson.
It would be funny if Trump stormed Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and even Pennsylvania, but suffered a shock defeat, due to unexpected losses in Iowa and Missouri.
Maybe they doth protest too much...
I guess we’ll know which were the accurate ones in about three days’ time, still think the actual result could be absolutely anything given how terrible the candidates are and the chance of apathy winning the day. It’s all up to whose supporters are more enthused on Tuesday, which will see the result break one way or the other.
One forgets that to any unqualified and universal benefit people end up thinking it's both an entitlement and that there's not enough of it.
So a reaction could be one of anger and desertion.
Maybe it'd be better to pledge ending it at a date in the future?
Tories really are boxed in by the oldies, even now in Opposition. They have to work out how to break the chain.
Maybe the Telegraph might now take a break and start functioning as a NEWSpaper again.
I notice another poll with Labour 7% ahead.
From someone who rarely gives an interview . Hard to think who it could be , would Kelly finally give an interview ?
That's why I oppose it.
https://x.com/nbcsnl/status/1852921270159163900
Budget? I note the critics on the whole have picked individual holes, (as can I) but can't offer much by way of alternative to tax, borrow and spend.
You cannot make important but difficult decisions whilst Farage is on hand to pop up with betrayal and outrage at a moment’s notice.
What is the dividing line with Farage, which keeps the voters with the Tories?
And gives Badenoch room for manoeuvre?
Simply return uprating of benefits and benefits to the governments's discretion at the annual budget. It gives a lot more flexibility to deal with fluctuating economy and finances.
The Triple Lock only dates to 2010. Thatcher and Major, Blair and Brown all managed without it.
The high king of the Noldor would make a better leader than either presidential candidate, but I'm not sure he'd approve the term limits.
Florida I'd assess as maybe 51:49 Trump this year. Texas nearer 70:30 chance of going Trump this time.
Corbyn "shoring up Labour's left flank" helped Boris win a massive majority.
Starmer expelling Corbyn and ensuring that Corbyn and his acolytes and the Hamas independents etc were pissing from the outside helped Labour win a landslide majority.
You don't win elections by appealing to the extremists that piss off everyone else.
But his views on Jan 6 could carry a lot of weight.