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Liz Truss would be proud – politicalbetting.com

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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,656

    Damon Hill is right, Max Verstappen is a dick.

    He knows all about evil people trying to kill him whilst trying to win an F1 title.

    Max Verstappen is ‘Formula One’s answer to Dick Dastardly’ says Damon Hill

    Former world champion believes Verstappen has ‘let himself down’ with tactics to keep title rival Lando Norris behind him


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/formula-1/2024/10/30/max-verstappen-dick-dastardly-answer-damon-hill-norris/

    Dick Dastardly never won a race:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wacky_Races_(1968_TV_series)#Race_results
  • GIN1138 said:

    Freezing fuel duty again is CRAZY.

    Don't worry, drivers will pay for it with Pay-Per-Mile in a couple of years...
    A good way to kill their political chances with anyone not living in a metropolitan centre.
    Fuel duty is going to bring in less and less in not all that long with EVs, so unless you ramp up tax on electricity (with all the side-effects that brings), then road charging is the only sensible way to replace it. But that runs into the problem of simplicity v fairness. You'd also need a comprehensive and effective monitoring network to process all the fees. But it could, in principle, be done.
    Drivers have been the golden goose that were fleeced but that should come to an end now.

    For drivers who need to pay commercial rates to recharge vehicles its not remotely plausible or reasonable to do that and pay road fees too.
    People said similar about congestion charges, which quickly became a way of life.
    Except congestion charges are quite rightly not a way of life for the overwhelming majority of the country.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,862
    What has the government done on investment? From what people are saying they've decided to abandon the borrowing target and are spunking it on the NHS instead. If you increase borrowing like this you need a long term message. What is it?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,515

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think we're going to see a scrapping of some of these measures because that borrowing forecast is absolutely shocking. It's more than Liz Truss proposed.

    It does depend on what the borrowing is for. Just spraying it on tax cuts in the hope that it magically creates enough growth to pay for itself will, rightly, be seen dimly by financiers. If budgeting was that easy, those measures would have been adopted long ago.

    On the other hand, getting NHS waiting lists down, to get long-term sick back to work, or to invest in necessary public infrastructure, may be received with a more relaxed manner.

    I've been pretty busy at work today so have only caught the headlines. It sounds as if a lot really is capital spending but is that impression justified by the detail? From some of the comments on here, it sounds not - or maybe that it's quite contradictory?
    The big capital spend seems to be on carbon capture and green hydrogen, both are a bit pie in the sky and have no near term deliverables other than money being spent.
    And largely useless in economic terms.

    Which wouldn't be the case for (eg) grid or offshore wind investment.
    Green Hydrogen is the solution that The System decided on, long ago. Despite enormous investment, it has never delivered.

    Despite it being a Proper Policy - it involves all the Proper Stakeholders (oil giants, gas companies etc).
    You're right and everything, but it's one thing to see the plan in print and quite another when the stupid fucks start building them. What right do we have to bitch about Trump when we do stupid things like this?
    Well, we're being pretty stupid and trying to rig the market to make natural gas competitive in the long term. (And the Conservatives are stupid in a different way for attempting to make nuclear competitive.)

    Trump is adding an additional level of stupidity, because he's trying to keep coal competitive.
    We have Ed Miliband so everything will work out well.
    The thing to watch for there is that he believes in Expensive Energy as a cause. That is, throttle demand for energy with price.

    In the next few years, solar (especially) will start challenging this orthodoxy. What then?

    Fun one - the chap I know who is converting his family farm into solar + small business park, is looking at supplying power direct to the businesses on his mini-business park (converted old farm buildings) - even after installing battery etc, he thinks he can offer them a good rate as part of the package.
    Saw a report about someone who was doing that on the box the other day. Seemed to be working out well.
    He's already got mutterings from a couple of local Green councillors. They are dead against his battery storage project, and they seem to regard providing cheap 'leccy as Pro Growth behaviour (all growth is bad).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,877
    Eabhal said:

    Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”

    “Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”

    But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
    No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,889

    As a few posters said on the last thread, it's so good to have a Labour budget again.

    I agree wholeheartedly...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,896

    So not much by way of housebulding then.

    The main number I heard on housebuilding was 2,000 new homes in Liverpool quays. I was thinking that was going to be the start of listing thousands of homes in more such projects around the country, but unless I was distracted and missed it, that seemed to be it.

    2,000 homes.

    It's not much to boast about in a budget speech.
    Also, that's been in the pipeline for at least 12 years.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,515

    So not much by way of housebulding then.

    The main number I heard on housebuilding was 2,000 new homes in Liverpool quays. I was thinking that was going to be the start of listing thousands of homes in more such projects around the country, but unless I was distracted and missed it, that seemed to be it.

    2,000 homes.

    It's not much to boast about in a budget speech.
    2000 homes is one moderate sized project in UK house building.

    I bet the System has pushed back on the amount of paperwork and process that would have to be binned, to build say 1,000,000 extra homes in 4 years.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,656
    eek said:

    You require MAGA levels of delusion to think that a 1.2% rise in employers NI is enough to sort out the UK's economic and infrastructure problems.

    That Reeves was too scared to raise fuel duty doesn't suggest she'll be able to cope in any crisis.

    The problem with raising fuel duty is that it went against the workers will have more money in their pocket story.

    Then we have the secondary issue which is that as cars move towards EV the tax revenue will disappear and the last thing you want to do is to start chasing that tail. Better to keep petrol tax levels as they are while working out how to cope with their disappearance..
    An advantage of raising fuel duty is that its a tax non-workers pay as well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,949
    edited October 30
    Pretty good, I think. At least Labour is going to try and do some stuff; not just keep the ministerial chairs warm.

    Reeves was good in the chamber, as was Sunak, now that he’s free of responsibility for anything, other than helping to deliver us Johnson’s mess.

    The other rising star is Darren Jones, who was excellent on BBC Politics.

    The most painful change will be the drop in employers’ NI threshold, which will hit firms employing part-time and lower paid workers of any size (smaller firms being protected by the increase in small business allowance). I’d guess the threshold change will raise more ££ than the headline increase?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,915

    So not much by way of housebulding then.

    The main number I heard on housebuilding was 2,000 new homes in Liverpool quays. I was thinking that was going to be the start of listing thousands of homes in more such projects around the country, but unless I was distracted and missed it, that seemed to be it.

    2,000 homes.

    It's not much to boast about in a budget speech.
    Build, build, build would be my manifesto. So thats a big negative, changing the rules on investment should have allowed a much greater scale of housebuilding, by orders of magnitude rather than double or treble.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259
    edited October 30
    IFS say real terms household disposal cash is going to be flat for a few years. No sunny uplands ahead anytime soon.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,877

    I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.

    Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally

    I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)

    However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.

    Wise decision.

    The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,817
    Cookie said:

    So not much by way of housebulding then.

    The main number I heard on housebuilding was 2,000 new homes in Liverpool quays. I was thinking that was going to be the start of listing thousands of homes in more such projects around the country, but unless I was distracted and missed it, that seemed to be it.

    2,000 homes.

    It's not much to boast about in a budget speech.
    Also, that's been in the pipeline for at least 12 years.
    not even in a marginal either. Although with housebuilding local NIMBYS probably make it a political negative to boast about it. Trying now to picture a NIMBY scouser getting angry on Look North West about it
  • MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”

    “Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”

    But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
    No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
    The OBR said just now it may contribute to growth in 8 to 10 years time
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,670
    Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607
    eek said:

    You require MAGA levels of delusion to think that a 1.2% rise in employers NI is enough to sort out the UK's economic and infrastructure problems.

    That Reeves was too scared to raise fuel duty doesn't suggest she'll be able to cope in any crisis.

    The problem with raising fuel duty is that it went against the workers will have more money in their pocket story.

    Then we have the secondary issue which is that as cars move towards EV the tax revenue will disappear and the last thing you want to do is to start chasing that tail. Better to keep petrol tax levels as they are while working out how to cope with their disappearance..
    I think that given the fiscal and investment situation a short-term increase in fuel duty receipts would be a good thing to use for investment spending.

    The money has to come from somewhere, and with luck the investment would boost growth in the economy to generate more sustainable tax revenue later. There's no pain-free tax increase.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,877
    How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    MaxPB said:

    How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?

    About £22bn worth
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,877

    IFS say real terms household disposal cash is going to be flat for a few years. No sunny uplands ahead anytime soon.

    I don't see how it will be flat, that seems optimistic to me. Wage rises stalling, inflation increasing again and unemployment rising will add up to a definite drop in disposable income.
  • MaxPB said:

    IFS say real terms household disposal cash is going to be flat for a few years. No sunny uplands ahead anytime soon.

    I don't see how it will be flat, that seems optimistic to me. Wage rises stalling, inflation increasing again and unemployment rising will add up to a definite drop in disposable income.
    Especially since any "growth" is not per capita growth.
  • That 22 billion is very close to the 24 billion Green industry and growth plan that Miliband was working on for three years.

    Odd, I would say.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,176
    I'm not going to link to the rumours because they are silly, but Christopher Nolan's next film may be based on Blue Thunder. Here is the theme to cheer you up after Labour shat the bed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqyKNnGihks
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259

    MaxPB said:

    IFS say real terms household disposal cash is going to be flat for a few years. No sunny uplands ahead anytime soon.

    I don't see how it will be flat, that seems optimistic to me. Wage rises stalling, inflation increasing again and unemployment rising will add up to a definite drop in disposable income.
    Especially since any "growth" is not per capita growth.
    Wonder what increase in population is being predicted over the next 5 years?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,701
    kinabalu said:

    I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.

    Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally

    I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)

    However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.

    Wise decision.

    You get it back though when you sell your old place.
    I know but if we were down to our last £12k and had to rustle it up by Monday that would have been a problem
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,949
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT:

    A1 dualing north of Morpeth has become like waiting for Godot.

    Why not get a private company to do it return for something, like advertising? (Not too distracting, obviously).
    You mean copy the US and put ads on giant poles along the roadside advertising lap dancing clubs, viagra, and assorted dodgy doctors and lawyers?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,327
    edited October 30

    Thus far the rise in gilt yields seems to reflect expectations of higher short term rates from the bank of England, owing to stronger near term growth and inflation, rather than a rise in the term premium reflecting market nervousness. The 10 year yield and the two year yield alike are up about 10bp (0.1%) on Monday (the 2y yield is drive more by shortvend rate expectations). The expected short rate in Sep 2025 is actually up about 15bp. That picture could change of course but right now it's not looking very Truss like.

    The 10 yr rose over 100 basis pts in the week following Truss. This triggered forced selling by PFs to meet margin calls, at which point the BoE stepped in to stop what was becoming a bit of a doom spiral. The whole thing was a gift to posterity for future CoEs because all budgets will forever look good by comparison.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,817
    I noticed today there are a lot less jobs in my field (FD of charities /not for profits) than usual on the two job sites I tend to look at - a lack of confidence atm?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,832
    MaxPB said:

    How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?

    It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,949

    I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.

    Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally

    I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)

    However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.

    Wise decision.

    Sadly the rate of duty that applies is the one on the day of completion
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,754
    edited October 30
    Same old Labour this ERSNI tax on companies is the sort of wheeze seen in the 70s with Selectively Emploment Tax which was a tax on jobs. Everyone thought it genius...until it was implemented.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,832
    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1851658527187550629

    During my Administration, we had peace in the Middle East, and we will have peace again very soon! I will fix the problems caused by Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon. I want to see the Middle East return to real peace, a lasting peace, and we will get it done properly so it doesn’t repeat itself every 5 or 10 years! I will preserve the equal partnership among all Lebanese communities. Your friends and family in Lebanon deserve to live in peace, prosperity, and harmony with their neighbors, and that can only happen with peace and stability in the Middle East. I look forward to working with the Lebanese community living in the United States of America to ensure the safety and security of the great people of Lebanon. Vote Trump for Peace!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259
    edited October 30
    Thresholds at which stamp duty is paid looks set to return to original levels in April. Analysis by property portal Zoopla suggests about 80% of first-time buyers currently pay no stamp duty, but this would now fall to about 60%.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,433

    I noticed today there are a lot less jobs in my field (FD of charities /not for profits) than usual on the two job sites I tend to look at - a lack of confidence atm?

    Probably a lot of confidence in third sector funding generally - I'm seeing a lot of hospices with financial difficulties...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,877

    MaxPB said:

    IFS say real terms household disposal cash is going to be flat for a few years. No sunny uplands ahead anytime soon.

    I don't see how it will be flat, that seems optimistic to me. Wage rises stalling, inflation increasing again and unemployment rising will add up to a definite drop in disposable income.
    Especially since any "growth" is not per capita growth.
    Yup flat or falling per capita GDP plus all of these tax rises means sharply falling disposable income. I fear that Labour are creating a negative feedback loop and it will be difficult to break the addiction of gently raising some tax or the other once a year to keep things ticking over until we have employer's NI at 20%.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607
    MaxPB said:

    How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?

    Labour have bet their majority on fixing the NHS. If they don't get results from that £22bn then they will be in serious political trouble.

    In terms of judging this government on the tasks it has set itself then things like: NHS waiting lists, A&E waiting times, cancer survival rates - those are the things to look at.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,074
    MaxPB said:

    I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.

    Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally

    I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)

    However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.

    Wise decision.

    The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
    It shouldn't be any of the government's damned business how many houses people want to own, any more than they control how many books or dogs or cars people buy.

    Instead the government should fix the lack of supply which it causes.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,433

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1851658527187550629

    During my Administration, we had peace in the Middle East, and we will have peace again very soon! I will fix the problems caused by Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon. I want to see the Middle East return to real peace, a lasting peace, and we will get it done properly so it doesn’t repeat itself every 5 or 10 years! I will preserve the equal partnership among all Lebanese communities. Your friends and family in Lebanon deserve to live in peace, prosperity, and harmony with their neighbors, and that can only happen with peace and stability in the Middle East. I look forward to working with the Lebanese community living in the United States of America to ensure the safety and security of the great people of Lebanon. Vote Trump for Peace!

    Got to say it's impressive how much bullshit he can put in a single tweet / post...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,949
    algarkirk said:

    Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.

    Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,801

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1851658527187550629

    During my Administration, we had peace in the Middle East, and we will have peace again very soon! I will fix the problems caused by Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon. I want to see the Middle East return to real peace, a lasting peace, and we will get it done properly so it doesn’t repeat itself every 5 or 10 years! I will preserve the equal partnership among all Lebanese communities. Your friends and family in Lebanon deserve to live in peace, prosperity, and harmony with their neighbors, and that can only happen with peace and stability in the Middle East. I look forward to working with the Lebanese community living in the United States of America to ensure the safety and security of the great people of Lebanon. Vote Trump for Peace!

    Must have been a staffer writing that. It's readable English and there are NO CAPITALISED WORDS.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,949
    For anyone who has been missing my dog pics…



  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259
    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.

    Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
    Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,327

    MaxPB said:

    How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?

    It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
    You think NHS workers should drop the pretensions and settle for Butlins?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,775
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”

    “Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”

    But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
    No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
    Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.

    (Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,327

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1851658527187550629

    During my Administration, we had peace in the Middle East, and we will have peace again very soon! I will fix the problems caused by Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon. I want to see the Middle East return to real peace, a lasting peace, and we will get it done properly so it doesn’t repeat itself every 5 or 10 years! I will preserve the equal partnership among all Lebanese communities. Your friends and family in Lebanon deserve to live in peace, prosperity, and harmony with their neighbors, and that can only happen with peace and stability in the Middle East. I look forward to working with the Lebanese community living in the United States of America to ensure the safety and security of the great people of Lebanon. Vote Trump for Peace!

    What a troll. He puts even you to shame.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,832
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?

    It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
    You think NHS workers should drop the pretensions and settle for Butlins?
    We should recognise that giving pay rises to NHS workers isn't investment in the public sector but putting more money in private pockets.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,258
    edited October 30
    MaxPB said:

    I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.

    Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally

    I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)

    However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.

    Wise decision.

    The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
    The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.

    If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607

    MaxPB said:

    IFS say real terms household disposal cash is going to be flat for a few years. No sunny uplands ahead anytime soon.

    I don't see how it will be flat, that seems optimistic to me. Wage rises stalling, inflation increasing again and unemployment rising will add up to a definite drop in disposable income.
    Especially since any "growth" is not per capita growth.
    GDP growth per capita is forecast. 1.4% in 2025 is the highest.

    You can work out the implied forecast population growth rate. GDP is forecast to grow 2% in the same year. So that implies population growth of 0.59% in 2025. About +400k population growth. Natural population growth in 2023 was about +10k.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,515
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”

    “Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”

    But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
    No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
    Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.

    (Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
    With forecasts that far ahead, we’ll be lucky if it is accurate to + or minus….
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,754

    I noticed today there are a lot less jobs in my field (FD of charities /not for profits) than usual on the two job sites I tend to look at - a lack of confidence atm?

    Fewer. Not less...
  • Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Off/T: last day of a wonderful short break in Aviemore (which my parents were always a bit sniffy about but which is a perfectly pleasant spot to stay). Falls of Bruar, Highland Wildlife Park, Meall a Buachaillie (with three daughters in tow and minimal whingeing), the Enchanted Forest ( @Luckyguy1983 's recommendation from back in 2022, repeated for the third year), Brodie Castle. Implausibly good weather. The visual highlights have been going south over the top of the A9 north of Killiecrankie in the late afternoon sun with an RAF plane flying low through the pass above us, and the Nairn-Carr Bridge road, also on the late afternoon sun. Trying to work out whether its possible to extend the holiday a bit. Or maybe just come and live here.



    *"Off' spelt in its entireity for the benefit of Anabobazina :smile:

    Sorry - vanilla seems to be posting images very small...
    It looks like some posters (not you) have been breaking the one photo a day allowance.

    I will have to take action.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,949

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.

    Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
    Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
    A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,545

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Off/T: last day of a wonderful short break in Aviemore (which my parents were always a bit sniffy about but which is a perfectly pleasant spot to stay). Falls of Bruar, Highland Wildlife Park, Meall a Buachaillie (with three daughters in tow and minimal whingeing), the Enchanted Forest ( @Luckyguy1983 's recommendation from back in 2022, repeated for the third year), Brodie Castle. Implausibly good weather. The visual highlights have been going south over the top of the A9 north of Killiecrankie in the late afternoon sun with an RAF plane flying low through the pass above us, and the Nairn-Carr Bridge road, also on the late afternoon sun. Trying to work out whether its possible to extend the holiday a bit. Or maybe just come and live here.



    *"Off' spelt in its entireity for the benefit of Anabobazina :smile:

    Sorry - vanilla seems to be posting images very small...
    It looks like some posters (not you) have been breaking the one photo a day allowance.

    I will have to take action.
    So glad it's become a family tradition - that's lovely.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Hello everyone, flying visit for an auspicious day, hope you're all well (haven't even lurked since the GE, been having a politi-break).
    Initial thoughts on the budget - trying to be too clever, some silly gesture politics. Penny off a pint? Ridiculous.
    Politically the bus fare cap will be very damaging, especially as in tandem with the fuel duty diseased rabbit it flies in the face of the Milibandite Reich of the Climate that is the flavour of this and every month.
    Slow burner damage from employer NI - to consumers and employees.
    Lacklustre growth and higher mortgage rates. Will 'investment' bear any fruit in time for any benefit to government?
    People are in the mood to hate Starmer and Reeves etc. Yesterday and today are feeding that with any mitigation a long way off.
    Tory and Reform poll leads by Xmas.
    As for gilts - tomorrow a big day. If the fine print is super bad then a very quick reckoning possible. I doubt it though. I think just enough meh to spike any rate drops in short order.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,949
    edited October 30
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.

    Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally

    I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)

    However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.

    Wise decision.

    The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
    The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.

    If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
    That could be called the ‘Leon Tax’. What a good idea! :)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    P.s. farmers for Starmer not trending anywhere, ever
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259
    edited October 30
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.

    Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
    Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
    A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
    The flaw in your argument is rarely do politicians reduce taxes on the former...and todays budget has set sail for much higher ones. And then we might also get wealth taxes on top...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,832
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.

    Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
    Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
    A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
    To be fair, the UK economy has created a huge number of jobs in the last 20 years, so that's not the problem. Paradoxically perhaps we do need to discourage employment to address the productivity gap.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”

    “Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”

    But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
    No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
    Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.

    (Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
    With forecasts that far ahead, we’ll be lucky if it is accurate to + or minus….
    It's not that we'd expect the forecast to be accurate in itself, but the difference between the forecast now and the forecast in March tells us interesting things about what has changed in the interim.

    The comparison isn't good this time.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    P.p.s. May bloodbath awaits Labour in the county council elections
  • Good time to be a criminal in Scotland from 1st November:

    "Chief Constable... I write to advise you that with effect from 5pm on Friday 1st of November all members will be withdrawing all goodwill in respect of policing. This will include actions to safeguard our members health and safety."

    https://spf.org.uk/jcc-circular-11-of-2024-pay-update-2024-25-information/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,877
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.

    Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally

    I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)

    However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.

    Wise decision.

    The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
    The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.

    If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
    A 200% premium on empty property isn't going to solve the issue of private renting having an economically deleterious effect. Private renting results in money flowing in the wrong direction, from workers to asset holders so using the tax system to penalise such behaviour is not something I'm greatly bothered by.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,949
    edited October 30

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.

    Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
    Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
    A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
    The flaw in your argument is rarely do politicians reduce taxes on the former...and todays budget has set sail for much higher ones. And then we might also get wealth taxes on top...
    The obvious flaw was the word ‘sensible’, as against ‘self-interested’.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259
    edited October 30

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.

    Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
    Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
    A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
    To be fair, the UK economy has created a huge number of jobs in the last 20 years, so that's not the problem. Paradoxically perhaps we do need to discourage employment to address the productivity gap.
    We might need to address the huge supply side incoming of new low skilled labour....
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,281
    IanB2 said:

    For anyone who has been missing my dog pics…



    Dog for escalier.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,877

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.

    Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
    Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
    A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
    To be fair, the UK economy has created a huge number of jobs in the last 20 years, so that's not the problem. Paradoxically perhaps we do need to discourage employment to address the productivity gap.
    Reduce supply of low skill workers in that case.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,915

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”

    “Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”

    But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
    No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
    Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.

    (Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
    With forecasts that far ahead, we’ll be lucky if it is accurate to + or minus….
    It's not that we'd expect the forecast to be accurate in itself, but the difference between the forecast now and the forecast in March tells us interesting things about what has changed in the interim.

    The comparison isn't good this time.
    I can't believe the energy spent over forecasts that vary by tiny fractions over 5 years, that no-one believes are particularly accurate, based on plans from both parties that we all know wont be followed.
  • Good news from the Spanish client: all of their Valencia factory team are safe.
    Bad news: the factory itself was under 2m of water and the best case scenario is no production for at least the rest of the year. Considering customer demand and Christmas season and the lack of capability / capacity elsewhere, its going to be fun* to manage
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    P.p.p.s she looked as pleased with herself as Ozzy did after the Pasty Budget. It's always a harbinger of face egg
  • P.p.p.s she looked as pleased with herself as Ozzy did after the Pasty Budget. It's always a harbinger of face egg

    The Tories won the next election by increasing the number of seats they won after the pasty budget.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.

    Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
    Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
    A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
    To be fair, the UK economy has created a huge number of jobs in the last 20 years, so that's not the problem. Paradoxically perhaps we do need to discourage employment to address the productivity gap.
    Reduce supply of low skill workers in that case.
    Or make them more expensive to employ.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    P.p.p.s she looked as pleased with herself as Ozzy did after the Pasty Budget. It's always a harbinger of face egg

    The Tories won the next election by increasing the number of seats they won after the pasty budget.
    They did, a bacon sandwich and some graffittied granite rode in to rescue them
  • Good news from the Spanish client: all of their Valencia factory team are safe.
    Bad news: the factory itself was under 2m of water and the best case scenario is no production for at least the rest of the year. Considering customer demand and Christmas season and the lack of capability / capacity elsewhere, its going to be fun* to manage

    It is terrible and tragic news for so many in Spain today
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,832
    Labour are touting “a penny off a pint” as a selling point of the budget.

    https://x.com/uklabour/status/1851617817059045680
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,171
    edited October 30
    A question for PB Brains Trust - I'm thinking of doing a more detailed tracking of my personal finances. A few years ago I used the open source (and free) GNUcash software to do double entry tracking of my expenditure but I stopped bothering and haven't for years but I'd like to pick it back up again.

    But I was curious if there's anything free out there that connects to bank accounts via the Open Banking standard that exists nowadays. Not been able to find one. GNUcash doesn't seem to do so and can't find anything else that does (found some that do in the States but not in the UK). Would prefer to do something via Open Banking than messing with CSV files etc

    Any advice?

    Unfortunately most of my Google searches are bringing back links to things like Xero but I'm not interested in paying for it as its not for a business just a personal interest.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,433

    Good news from the Spanish client: all of their Valencia factory team are safe.
    Bad news: the factory itself was under 2m of water and the best case scenario is no production for at least the rest of the year. Considering customer demand and Christmas season and the lack of capability / capacity elsewhere, its going to be fun* to manage

    Good news - and that's what you get paid the big bucks to help resolve...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,327
    edited October 30

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?

    It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
    You think NHS workers should drop the pretensions and settle for Butlins?
    We should recognise that giving pay rises to NHS workers isn't investment in the public sector but putting more money in private pockets.
    It's a bit narrow to count only tangibles as investment. Eg what if you "invest" in a new road? Are you not going to include labour costs?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    Labour are touting “a penny off a pint” as a selling point of the budget.

    https://x.com/uklabour/status/1851617817059045680

    Which has basically been overshadowed by the E-NIC changes
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?

    It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
    You think NHS workers should drop the pretensions and settle for Butlins?
    We should recognise that giving pay rises to NHS workers isn't investment in the public sector but putting more money in private pockets.
    It's a bit narrow to count only tangibles as investment. Eg what if you "invest" in a new road? Are you not going to include labour costs?
    Construction costs of a tangible are investment.

    Operation costs are not.

    Those constructing a new hospital for instance fall under investment. Those operating it are not.

    Capex vs Opex. NHS workers are Opex not Capex.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”

    “Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”

    But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
    No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
    Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.

    (Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
    With forecasts that far ahead, we’ll be lucky if it is accurate to + or minus….
    It's not that we'd expect the forecast to be accurate in itself, but the difference between the forecast now and the forecast in March tells us interesting things about what has changed in the interim.

    The comparison isn't good this time.
    I can't believe the energy spent over forecasts that vary by tiny fractions over 5 years, that no-one believes are particularly accurate, based on plans from both parties that we all know wont be followed.
    It's the best available metric for judging how well the budget measures are expected to affect growth. Not saying it's perfect, but the alternative is what?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,674
    "England rugby star Joe Marler has caused controversy after branding New Zealand's pre-match haka "ridiculous" and saying it "needs binning".

    The 34-year-old prop deactivated his X account following his comments over the All Blacks' tradition - before later returning to social media and claiming he was "just having a bit of fun"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/joe-marler-england-rugby-star-faces-backlash-after-saying-new-zealands-ridiculous-haka-needs-binning-13244656
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Labour are touting “a penny off a pint” as a selling point of the budget.

    https://x.com/uklabour/status/1851617817059045680

    I expect all pubs will be stampeding to amend their prices accordingly. The average boozer will save at least 10p on a night out, as long as they don't have a chaser or a shot of course.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259
    Foss said:
    Always a vote winner....Plus more dragged into stamp duty...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,258
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.

    Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally

    I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)

    However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.

    Wise decision.

    The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
    The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.

    If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
    A 200% premium on empty property isn't going to solve the issue of private renting having an economically deleterious effect. Private renting results in money flowing in the wrong direction, from workers to asset holders so using the tax system to penalise such behaviour is not something I'm greatly bothered by.
    There are multiple issues, not just one.

    Now, personally, I am very happy to rent. If the choice is between having $1m invested in my business and me renting, and $1m invested in a house, I'll choose the former every time. And people should be allowed to make that choice.

    What I think is most important to address is the fact that the housing market is inefficient. People live in houses that are too big for them, because trading down is so expensive because of stamp duty. And there are homes that are barely used.

    The tax system should be encouraging the efficient allocation of scarce resources. Everything the government does in the housing market should be framed around that question, and raising stamp duty does the opposite. It makes the market less liquid, and discourages efficient allocation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,452
    OBR aren’t entirely taking Labour on trust, either.

    The OBR is currently assuming Labour fail to hit their 1.5 million homes target by 200,000.

    However, they haven't modelled the planning reform changes proposed since the election.

    The easiest route to an upgrade in the growth forecast is delivering planning reform.

    https://x.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1851651414105240004
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    OBR is pretty grim tbh, it's a very poor outlook irrespective of the policies and taxation decisions.

    And Jezza is on the warpath too
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259

    OBR is pretty grim tbh, it's a very poor outlook irrespective of the policies and taxation decisions.

    And Jezza is on the warpath too

    Jezza Corbyn or Clarkson?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,258
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.

    Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally

    I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)

    However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.

    Wise decision.

    The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
    The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.

    If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
    That could be called the ‘Leon Tax’. What a good idea! :)
    Well, I wasn't specifically targeting him, but I don't think anyone would complain if he had to pay a little more council tax.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    OBR is pretty grim tbh, it's a very poor outlook irrespective of the policies and taxation decisions.

    And Jezza is on the warpath too

    Jezza Corbyn or Clarkson?
    Clarkson. Re Farms and IHT
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,817
    kinabalu said:

    Thus far the rise in gilt yields seems to reflect expectations of higher short term rates from the bank of England, owing to stronger near term growth and inflation, rather than a rise in the term premium reflecting market nervousness. The 10 year yield and the two year yield alike are up about 10bp (0.1%) on Monday (the 2y yield is drive more by shortvend rate expectations). The expected short rate in Sep 2025 is actually up about 15bp. That picture could change of course but right now it's not looking very Truss like.

    The 10 yr rose over 100 basis pts in the week following Truss. This triggered forced selling by PFs to meet margin calls, at which point the BoE stepped in to stop what was becoming a bit of a doom spiral. The whole thing was a gift to posterity for future CoEs because all budgets will forever look good by comparison.
    The way that the Truss name has become synonymous with a disastrous unforced fiscal policy error among the international financial community is quite striking. She has achieved an immortality few politicians can boast of.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259

    OBR is pretty grim tbh, it's a very poor outlook irrespective of the policies and taxation decisions.

    And Jezza is on the warpath too

    Jezza Corbyn or Clarkson?
    Clarkson. Re Farms and IHT
    I presumed that was the case, although you never know, I presume grumpy grandpa is calling for far more of soaking of the rich.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607
    Nigelb said:

    OBR aren’t entirely taking Labour on trust, either.

    The OBR is currently assuming Labour fail to hit their 1.5 million homes target by 200,000.

    However, they haven't modelled the planning reform changes proposed since the election.

    The easiest route to an upgrade in the growth forecast is delivering planning reform.

    https://x.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1851651414105240004

    That throws down the gauntlet to Angela Rayner. Can she get it done?
  • OBR is pretty grim tbh, it's a very poor outlook irrespective of the policies and taxation decisions.

    And Jezza is on the warpath too

    Jezza Corbyn or Clarkson?
    Clarkson. Re Farms and IHT
    Oh dear, how sad, nevermind.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,258
    Nigelb said:

    OBR aren’t entirely taking Labour on trust, either.

    The OBR is currently assuming Labour fail to hit their 1.5 million homes target by 200,000.

    However, they haven't modelled the planning reform changes proposed since the election.

    The easiest route to an upgrade in the growth forecast is delivering planning reform.

    https://x.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1851651414105240004

    1.5 million new homes in the next 197,976 years does sounds like a bit of a stretch, but I think if they really push it is achievable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,832
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.

    Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally

    I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)

    However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.

    Wise decision.

    The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
    The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.

    If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
    A 200% premium on empty property isn't going to solve the issue of private renting having an economically deleterious effect. Private renting results in money flowing in the wrong direction, from workers to asset holders so using the tax system to penalise such behaviour is not something I'm greatly bothered by.
    There are multiple issues, not just one.

    Now, personally, I am very happy to rent. If the choice is between having $1m invested in my business and me renting, and $1m invested in a house, I'll choose the former every time. And people should be allowed to make that choice.

    What I think is most important to address is the fact that the housing market is inefficient. People live in houses that are too big for them, because trading down is so expensive because of stamp duty. And there are homes that are barely used.

    The tax system should be encouraging the efficient allocation of scarce resources. Everything the government does in the housing market should be framed around that question, and raising stamp duty does the opposite. It makes the market less liquid, and discourages efficient allocation.
    That's true, but relative to other countries, the UK isn't particularly afflicted by people occupying more property than they need so focusing on this might be a kind of displacement activity. The real problem is population growth relative to the housing stock.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,327
    edited October 30

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?

    It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
    You think NHS workers should drop the pretensions and settle for Butlins?
    We should recognise that giving pay rises to NHS workers isn't investment in the public sector but putting more money in private pockets.
    It's a bit narrow to count only tangibles as investment. Eg what if you "invest" in a new road? Are you not going to include labour costs?
    Construction costs of a tangible are investment.

    Operation costs are not.

    Those constructing a new hospital for instance fall under investment. Those operating it are not.

    Capex vs Opex. NHS workers are Opex not Capex.
    Sort of - but it can be something of a grey area. Eg new or better trained or more highly qualified staff might be needed to leverage the physical assets into improved outcomes.

    Plus all people need a pay rise now and again, whatever they're working on.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,915

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”

    “Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”

    But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
    No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
    Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.

    (Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
    With forecasts that far ahead, we’ll be lucky if it is accurate to + or minus….
    It's not that we'd expect the forecast to be accurate in itself, but the difference between the forecast now and the forecast in March tells us interesting things about what has changed in the interim.

    The comparison isn't good this time.
    I can't believe the energy spent over forecasts that vary by tiny fractions over 5 years, that no-one believes are particularly accurate, based on plans from both parties that we all know wont be followed.
    It's the best available metric for judging how well the budget measures are expected to affect growth. Not saying it's perfect, but the alternative is what?
    Forecasting should be part of the process sure, but not the intense arguments about 1.6% or 1.7% growth rates over 5 years. Even six months after the fifth year has finished we still wouldn't know the growth rate to 0.1% accuracy, subsequent revisions will be more than that, which shows how pointless it is to argue about it now.

    My reflections on the budget are broadly happy with where we have raised the money from, less happy how we are spending it, and think it is probably too timid (as opposed to the reaction suggesting it is too much).

    6/10 or B-/C+ type grades from me.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,411
    Good afternoon everyone.

    A comment on the graph in the header:
    It's so bad that it also caused German, US and French 10 year yields to spike at the exact same time.... or there might be another cause.
    https://x.com/joozy1/status/1851645049366364256

    I think the thing with reactions, rather than factual commentary, is to ignore it for the next week :smile: .

    Do we have a 4 year version of that graph?
This discussion has been closed.