Don't worry, drivers will pay for it with Pay-Per-Mile in a couple of years...
A good way to kill their political chances with anyone not living in a metropolitan centre.
Fuel duty is going to bring in less and less in not all that long with EVs, so unless you ramp up tax on electricity (with all the side-effects that brings), then road charging is the only sensible way to replace it. But that runs into the problem of simplicity v fairness. You'd also need a comprehensive and effective monitoring network to process all the fees. But it could, in principle, be done.
Drivers have been the golden goose that were fleeced but that should come to an end now.
For drivers who need to pay commercial rates to recharge vehicles its not remotely plausible or reasonable to do that and pay road fees too.
People said similar about congestion charges, which quickly became a way of life.
Except congestion charges are quite rightly not a way of life for the overwhelming majority of the country.
What has the government done on investment? From what people are saying they've decided to abandon the borrowing target and are spunking it on the NHS instead. If you increase borrowing like this you need a long term message. What is it?
I think we're going to see a scrapping of some of these measures because that borrowing forecast is absolutely shocking. It's more than Liz Truss proposed.
It does depend on what the borrowing is for. Just spraying it on tax cuts in the hope that it magically creates enough growth to pay for itself will, rightly, be seen dimly by financiers. If budgeting was that easy, those measures would have been adopted long ago.
On the other hand, getting NHS waiting lists down, to get long-term sick back to work, or to invest in necessary public infrastructure, may be received with a more relaxed manner.
I've been pretty busy at work today so have only caught the headlines. It sounds as if a lot really is capital spending but is that impression justified by the detail? From some of the comments on here, it sounds not - or maybe that it's quite contradictory?
The big capital spend seems to be on carbon capture and green hydrogen, both are a bit pie in the sky and have no near term deliverables other than money being spent.
And largely useless in economic terms.
Which wouldn't be the case for (eg) grid or offshore wind investment.
Green Hydrogen is the solution that The System decided on, long ago. Despite enormous investment, it has never delivered.
Despite it being a Proper Policy - it involves all the Proper Stakeholders (oil giants, gas companies etc).
You're right and everything, but it's one thing to see the plan in print and quite another when the stupid fucks start building them. What right do we have to bitch about Trump when we do stupid things like this?
Well, we're being pretty stupid and trying to rig the market to make natural gas competitive in the long term. (And the Conservatives are stupid in a different way for attempting to make nuclear competitive.)
Trump is adding an additional level of stupidity, because he's trying to keep coal competitive.
We have Ed Miliband so everything will work out well.
The thing to watch for there is that he believes in Expensive Energy as a cause. That is, throttle demand for energy with price.
In the next few years, solar (especially) will start challenging this orthodoxy. What then?
Fun one - the chap I know who is converting his family farm into solar + small business park, is looking at supplying power direct to the businesses on his mini-business park (converted old farm buildings) - even after installing battery etc, he thinks he can offer them a good rate as part of the package.
Saw a report about someone who was doing that on the box the other day. Seemed to be working out well.
He's already got mutterings from a couple of local Green councillors. They are dead against his battery storage project, and they seem to regard providing cheap 'leccy as Pro Growth behaviour (all growth is bad).
Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”
“Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”
But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
The main number I heard on housebuilding was 2,000 new homes in Liverpool quays. I was thinking that was going to be the start of listing thousands of homes in more such projects around the country, but unless I was distracted and missed it, that seemed to be it.
2,000 homes.
It's not much to boast about in a budget speech.
Also, that's been in the pipeline for at least 12 years.
The main number I heard on housebuilding was 2,000 new homes in Liverpool quays. I was thinking that was going to be the start of listing thousands of homes in more such projects around the country, but unless I was distracted and missed it, that seemed to be it.
2,000 homes.
It's not much to boast about in a budget speech.
2000 homes is one moderate sized project in UK house building.
I bet the System has pushed back on the amount of paperwork and process that would have to be binned, to build say 1,000,000 extra homes in 4 years.
You require MAGA levels of delusion to think that a 1.2% rise in employers NI is enough to sort out the UK's economic and infrastructure problems.
That Reeves was too scared to raise fuel duty doesn't suggest she'll be able to cope in any crisis.
The problem with raising fuel duty is that it went against the workers will have more money in their pocket story.
Then we have the secondary issue which is that as cars move towards EV the tax revenue will disappear and the last thing you want to do is to start chasing that tail. Better to keep petrol tax levels as they are while working out how to cope with their disappearance..
An advantage of raising fuel duty is that its a tax non-workers pay as well.
Pretty good, I think. At least Labour is going to try and do some stuff; not just keep the ministerial chairs warm.
Reeves was good in the chamber, as was Sunak, now that he’s free of responsibility for anything, other than helping to deliver us Johnson’s mess.
The other rising star is Darren Jones, who was excellent on BBC Politics.
The most painful change will be the drop in employers’ NI threshold, which will hit firms employing part-time and lower paid workers of any size (smaller firms being protected by the increase in small business allowance). I’d guess the threshold change will raise more ££ than the headline increase?
The main number I heard on housebuilding was 2,000 new homes in Liverpool quays. I was thinking that was going to be the start of listing thousands of homes in more such projects around the country, but unless I was distracted and missed it, that seemed to be it.
2,000 homes.
It's not much to boast about in a budget speech.
Build, build, build would be my manifesto. So thats a big negative, changing the rules on investment should have allowed a much greater scale of housebuilding, by orders of magnitude rather than double or treble.
I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.
Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally
I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)
However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.
Wise decision.
The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
The main number I heard on housebuilding was 2,000 new homes in Liverpool quays. I was thinking that was going to be the start of listing thousands of homes in more such projects around the country, but unless I was distracted and missed it, that seemed to be it.
2,000 homes.
It's not much to boast about in a budget speech.
Also, that's been in the pipeline for at least 12 years.
not even in a marginal either. Although with housebuilding local NIMBYS probably make it a political negative to boast about it. Trying now to picture a NIMBY scouser getting angry on Look North West about it
Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”
“Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”
But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
The OBR said just now it may contribute to growth in 8 to 10 years time
Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.
You require MAGA levels of delusion to think that a 1.2% rise in employers NI is enough to sort out the UK's economic and infrastructure problems.
That Reeves was too scared to raise fuel duty doesn't suggest she'll be able to cope in any crisis.
The problem with raising fuel duty is that it went against the workers will have more money in their pocket story.
Then we have the secondary issue which is that as cars move towards EV the tax revenue will disappear and the last thing you want to do is to start chasing that tail. Better to keep petrol tax levels as they are while working out how to cope with their disappearance..
I think that given the fiscal and investment situation a short-term increase in fuel duty receipts would be a good thing to use for investment spending.
The money has to come from somewhere, and with luck the investment would boost growth in the economy to generate more sustainable tax revenue later. There's no pain-free tax increase.
How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?
How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?
IFS say real terms household disposal cash is going to be flat for a few years. No sunny uplands ahead anytime soon.
I don't see how it will be flat, that seems optimistic to me. Wage rises stalling, inflation increasing again and unemployment rising will add up to a definite drop in disposable income.
IFS say real terms household disposal cash is going to be flat for a few years. No sunny uplands ahead anytime soon.
I don't see how it will be flat, that seems optimistic to me. Wage rises stalling, inflation increasing again and unemployment rising will add up to a definite drop in disposable income.
Especially since any "growth" is not per capita growth.
I'm not going to link to the rumours because they are silly, but Christopher Nolan's next film may be based on Blue Thunder. Here is the theme to cheer you up after Labour shat the bed.
IFS say real terms household disposal cash is going to be flat for a few years. No sunny uplands ahead anytime soon.
I don't see how it will be flat, that seems optimistic to me. Wage rises stalling, inflation increasing again and unemployment rising will add up to a definite drop in disposable income.
Especially since any "growth" is not per capita growth.
Wonder what increase in population is being predicted over the next 5 years?
I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.
Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally
I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)
However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.
Wise decision.
You get it back though when you sell your old place.
I know but if we were down to our last £12k and had to rustle it up by Monday that would have been a problem
Thus far the rise in gilt yields seems to reflect expectations of higher short term rates from the bank of England, owing to stronger near term growth and inflation, rather than a rise in the term premium reflecting market nervousness. The 10 year yield and the two year yield alike are up about 10bp (0.1%) on Monday (the 2y yield is drive more by shortvend rate expectations). The expected short rate in Sep 2025 is actually up about 15bp. That picture could change of course but right now it's not looking very Truss like.
The 10 yr rose over 100 basis pts in the week following Truss. This triggered forced selling by PFs to meet margin calls, at which point the BoE stepped in to stop what was becoming a bit of a doom spiral. The whole thing was a gift to posterity for future CoEs because all budgets will forever look good by comparison.
I noticed today there are a lot less jobs in my field (FD of charities /not for profits) than usual on the two job sites I tend to look at - a lack of confidence atm?
How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?
It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.
Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally
I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)
However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.
Wise decision.
Sadly the rate of duty that applies is the one on the day of completion
Same old Labour this ERSNI tax on companies is the sort of wheeze seen in the 70s with Selectively Emploment Tax which was a tax on jobs. Everyone thought it genius...until it was implemented.
During my Administration, we had peace in the Middle East, and we will have peace again very soon! I will fix the problems caused by Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon. I want to see the Middle East return to real peace, a lasting peace, and we will get it done properly so it doesn’t repeat itself every 5 or 10 years! I will preserve the equal partnership among all Lebanese communities. Your friends and family in Lebanon deserve to live in peace, prosperity, and harmony with their neighbors, and that can only happen with peace and stability in the Middle East. I look forward to working with the Lebanese community living in the United States of America to ensure the safety and security of the great people of Lebanon. Vote Trump for Peace!
Thresholds at which stamp duty is paid looks set to return to original levels in April. Analysis by property portal Zoopla suggests about 80% of first-time buyers currently pay no stamp duty, but this would now fall to about 60%.
I noticed today there are a lot less jobs in my field (FD of charities /not for profits) than usual on the two job sites I tend to look at - a lack of confidence atm?
Probably a lot of confidence in third sector funding generally - I'm seeing a lot of hospices with financial difficulties...
IFS say real terms household disposal cash is going to be flat for a few years. No sunny uplands ahead anytime soon.
I don't see how it will be flat, that seems optimistic to me. Wage rises stalling, inflation increasing again and unemployment rising will add up to a definite drop in disposable income.
Especially since any "growth" is not per capita growth.
Yup flat or falling per capita GDP plus all of these tax rises means sharply falling disposable income. I fear that Labour are creating a negative feedback loop and it will be difficult to break the addiction of gently raising some tax or the other once a year to keep things ticking over until we have employer's NI at 20%.
How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?
Labour have bet their majority on fixing the NHS. If they don't get results from that £22bn then they will be in serious political trouble.
In terms of judging this government on the tasks it has set itself then things like: NHS waiting lists, A&E waiting times, cancer survival rates - those are the things to look at.
I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.
Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally
I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)
However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.
Wise decision.
The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
It shouldn't be any of the government's damned business how many houses people want to own, any more than they control how many books or dogs or cars people buy.
Instead the government should fix the lack of supply which it causes.
During my Administration, we had peace in the Middle East, and we will have peace again very soon! I will fix the problems caused by Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon. I want to see the Middle East return to real peace, a lasting peace, and we will get it done properly so it doesn’t repeat itself every 5 or 10 years! I will preserve the equal partnership among all Lebanese communities. Your friends and family in Lebanon deserve to live in peace, prosperity, and harmony with their neighbors, and that can only happen with peace and stability in the Middle East. I look forward to working with the Lebanese community living in the United States of America to ensure the safety and security of the great people of Lebanon. Vote Trump for Peace!
Got to say it's impressive how much bullshit he can put in a single tweet / post...
Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.
Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
During my Administration, we had peace in the Middle East, and we will have peace again very soon! I will fix the problems caused by Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon. I want to see the Middle East return to real peace, a lasting peace, and we will get it done properly so it doesn’t repeat itself every 5 or 10 years! I will preserve the equal partnership among all Lebanese communities. Your friends and family in Lebanon deserve to live in peace, prosperity, and harmony with their neighbors, and that can only happen with peace and stability in the Middle East. I look forward to working with the Lebanese community living in the United States of America to ensure the safety and security of the great people of Lebanon. Vote Trump for Peace!
Must have been a staffer writing that. It's readable English and there are NO CAPITALISED WORDS.
Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.
Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?
It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
You think NHS workers should drop the pretensions and settle for Butlins?
Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”
“Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”
But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.
During my Administration, we had peace in the Middle East, and we will have peace again very soon! I will fix the problems caused by Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon. I want to see the Middle East return to real peace, a lasting peace, and we will get it done properly so it doesn’t repeat itself every 5 or 10 years! I will preserve the equal partnership among all Lebanese communities. Your friends and family in Lebanon deserve to live in peace, prosperity, and harmony with their neighbors, and that can only happen with peace and stability in the Middle East. I look forward to working with the Lebanese community living in the United States of America to ensure the safety and security of the great people of Lebanon. Vote Trump for Peace!
How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?
It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
You think NHS workers should drop the pretensions and settle for Butlins?
We should recognise that giving pay rises to NHS workers isn't investment in the public sector but putting more money in private pockets.
I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.
Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally
I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)
However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.
Wise decision.
The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.
If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
IFS say real terms household disposal cash is going to be flat for a few years. No sunny uplands ahead anytime soon.
I don't see how it will be flat, that seems optimistic to me. Wage rises stalling, inflation increasing again and unemployment rising will add up to a definite drop in disposable income.
Especially since any "growth" is not per capita growth.
GDP growth per capita is forecast. 1.4% in 2025 is the highest.
You can work out the implied forecast population growth rate. GDP is forecast to grow 2% in the same year. So that implies population growth of 0.59% in 2025. About +400k population growth. Natural population growth in 2023 was about +10k.
Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”
“Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”
But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.
(Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
With forecasts that far ahead, we’ll be lucky if it is accurate to + or minus….
I noticed today there are a lot less jobs in my field (FD of charities /not for profits) than usual on the two job sites I tend to look at - a lack of confidence atm?
Off/T: last day of a wonderful short break in Aviemore (which my parents were always a bit sniffy about but which is a perfectly pleasant spot to stay). Falls of Bruar, Highland Wildlife Park, Meall a Buachaillie (with three daughters in tow and minimal whingeing), the Enchanted Forest ( @Luckyguy1983 's recommendation from back in 2022, repeated for the third year), Brodie Castle. Implausibly good weather. The visual highlights have been going south over the top of the A9 north of Killiecrankie in the late afternoon sun with an RAF plane flying low through the pass above us, and the Nairn-Carr Bridge road, also on the late afternoon sun. Trying to work out whether its possible to extend the holiday a bit. Or maybe just come and live here.
*"Off' spelt in its entireity for the benefit of Anabobazina
Sorry - vanilla seems to be posting images very small...
It looks like some posters (not you) have been breaking the one photo a day allowance.
Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.
Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
Off/T: last day of a wonderful short break in Aviemore (which my parents were always a bit sniffy about but which is a perfectly pleasant spot to stay). Falls of Bruar, Highland Wildlife Park, Meall a Buachaillie (with three daughters in tow and minimal whingeing), the Enchanted Forest ( @Luckyguy1983 's recommendation from back in 2022, repeated for the third year), Brodie Castle. Implausibly good weather. The visual highlights have been going south over the top of the A9 north of Killiecrankie in the late afternoon sun with an RAF plane flying low through the pass above us, and the Nairn-Carr Bridge road, also on the late afternoon sun. Trying to work out whether its possible to extend the holiday a bit. Or maybe just come and live here.
*"Off' spelt in its entireity for the benefit of Anabobazina
Sorry - vanilla seems to be posting images very small...
It looks like some posters (not you) have been breaking the one photo a day allowance.
I will have to take action.
So glad it's become a family tradition - that's lovely.
Hello everyone, flying visit for an auspicious day, hope you're all well (haven't even lurked since the GE, been having a politi-break). Initial thoughts on the budget - trying to be too clever, some silly gesture politics. Penny off a pint? Ridiculous. Politically the bus fare cap will be very damaging, especially as in tandem with the fuel duty diseased rabbit it flies in the face of the Milibandite Reich of the Climate that is the flavour of this and every month. Slow burner damage from employer NI - to consumers and employees. Lacklustre growth and higher mortgage rates. Will 'investment' bear any fruit in time for any benefit to government? People are in the mood to hate Starmer and Reeves etc. Yesterday and today are feeding that with any mitigation a long way off. Tory and Reform poll leads by Xmas. As for gilts - tomorrow a big day. If the fine print is super bad then a very quick reckoning possible. I doubt it though. I think just enough meh to spike any rate drops in short order.
I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.
Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally
I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)
However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.
Wise decision.
The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.
If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
That could be called the ‘Leon Tax’. What a good idea!
Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.
Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
The flaw in your argument is rarely do politicians reduce taxes on the former...and todays budget has set sail for much higher ones. And then we might also get wealth taxes on top...
Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.
Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
To be fair, the UK economy has created a huge number of jobs in the last 20 years, so that's not the problem. Paradoxically perhaps we do need to discourage employment to address the productivity gap.
Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”
“Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”
But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.
(Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
With forecasts that far ahead, we’ll be lucky if it is accurate to + or minus….
It's not that we'd expect the forecast to be accurate in itself, but the difference between the forecast now and the forecast in March tells us interesting things about what has changed in the interim.
Good time to be a criminal in Scotland from 1st November:
"Chief Constable... I write to advise you that with effect from 5pm on Friday 1st of November all members will be withdrawing all goodwill in respect of policing. This will include actions to safeguard our members health and safety."
I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.
Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally
I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)
However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.
Wise decision.
The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.
If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
A 200% premium on empty property isn't going to solve the issue of private renting having an economically deleterious effect. Private renting results in money flowing in the wrong direction, from workers to asset holders so using the tax system to penalise such behaviour is not something I'm greatly bothered by.
Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.
Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
The flaw in your argument is rarely do politicians reduce taxes on the former...and todays budget has set sail for much higher ones. And then we might also get wealth taxes on top...
The obvious flaw was the word ‘sensible’, as against ‘self-interested’.
Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.
Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
To be fair, the UK economy has created a huge number of jobs in the last 20 years, so that's not the problem. Paradoxically perhaps we do need to discourage employment to address the productivity gap.
We might need to address the huge supply side incoming of new low skilled labour....
Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.
Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
To be fair, the UK economy has created a huge number of jobs in the last 20 years, so that's not the problem. Paradoxically perhaps we do need to discourage employment to address the productivity gap.
Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”
“Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”
But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.
(Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
With forecasts that far ahead, we’ll be lucky if it is accurate to + or minus….
It's not that we'd expect the forecast to be accurate in itself, but the difference between the forecast now and the forecast in March tells us interesting things about what has changed in the interim.
The comparison isn't good this time.
I can't believe the energy spent over forecasts that vary by tiny fractions over 5 years, that no-one believes are particularly accurate, based on plans from both parties that we all know wont be followed.
Good news from the Spanish client: all of their Valencia factory team are safe. Bad news: the factory itself was under 2m of water and the best case scenario is no production for at least the rest of the year. Considering customer demand and Christmas season and the lack of capability / capacity elsewhere, its going to be fun* to manage
Budget silences: Wealth taxes; revising council tax so that £5m mansions pay lots more than middling houses; pensioners etc not paying NI; inter vivos gifts avoiding IHT; IHT inequitable advantage to home owners with children; low personal allowances; tax advantages of self employed status.
Round Two will be taxes on wealth and unearned income, I suspect. Some of those suggestions require more work and consultation than you can do in a couple of months.
Are taxes at record all time high not high enough?
A sensible government would take the opportunity to reduce taxes on things we want, like income and employment, when they start taxing unearned income, land and wealth.
To be fair, the UK economy has created a huge number of jobs in the last 20 years, so that's not the problem. Paradoxically perhaps we do need to discourage employment to address the productivity gap.
Good news from the Spanish client: all of their Valencia factory team are safe. Bad news: the factory itself was under 2m of water and the best case scenario is no production for at least the rest of the year. Considering customer demand and Christmas season and the lack of capability / capacity elsewhere, its going to be fun* to manage
It is terrible and tragic news for so many in Spain today
A question for PB Brains Trust - I'm thinking of doing a more detailed tracking of my personal finances. A few years ago I used the open source (and free) GNUcash software to do double entry tracking of my expenditure but I stopped bothering and haven't for years but I'd like to pick it back up again.
But I was curious if there's anything free out there that connects to bank accounts via the Open Banking standard that exists nowadays. Not been able to find one. GNUcash doesn't seem to do so and can't find anything else that does (found some that do in the States but not in the UK). Would prefer to do something via Open Banking than messing with CSV files etc
Any advice?
Unfortunately most of my Google searches are bringing back links to things like Xero but I'm not interested in paying for it as its not for a business just a personal interest.
Good news from the Spanish client: all of their Valencia factory team are safe. Bad news: the factory itself was under 2m of water and the best case scenario is no production for at least the rest of the year. Considering customer demand and Christmas season and the lack of capability / capacity elsewhere, its going to be fun* to manage
Good news - and that's what you get paid the big bucks to help resolve...
How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?
It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
You think NHS workers should drop the pretensions and settle for Butlins?
We should recognise that giving pay rises to NHS workers isn't investment in the public sector but putting more money in private pockets.
It's a bit narrow to count only tangibles as investment. Eg what if you "invest" in a new road? Are you not going to include labour costs?
How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?
It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
You think NHS workers should drop the pretensions and settle for Butlins?
We should recognise that giving pay rises to NHS workers isn't investment in the public sector but putting more money in private pockets.
It's a bit narrow to count only tangibles as investment. Eg what if you "invest" in a new road? Are you not going to include labour costs?
Construction costs of a tangible are investment.
Operation costs are not.
Those constructing a new hospital for instance fall under investment. Those operating it are not.
Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”
“Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”
But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.
(Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
With forecasts that far ahead, we’ll be lucky if it is accurate to + or minus….
It's not that we'd expect the forecast to be accurate in itself, but the difference between the forecast now and the forecast in March tells us interesting things about what has changed in the interim.
The comparison isn't good this time.
I can't believe the energy spent over forecasts that vary by tiny fractions over 5 years, that no-one believes are particularly accurate, based on plans from both parties that we all know wont be followed.
It's the best available metric for judging how well the budget measures are expected to affect growth. Not saying it's perfect, but the alternative is what?
"England rugby star Joe Marler has caused controversy after branding New Zealand's pre-match haka "ridiculous" and saying it "needs binning".
The 34-year-old prop deactivated his X account following his comments over the All Blacks' tradition - before later returning to social media and claiming he was "just having a bit of fun"."
I expect all pubs will be stampeding to amend their prices accordingly. The average boozer will save at least 10p on a night out, as long as they don't have a chaser or a shot of course.
I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.
Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally
I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)
However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.
Wise decision.
The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.
If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
A 200% premium on empty property isn't going to solve the issue of private renting having an economically deleterious effect. Private renting results in money flowing in the wrong direction, from workers to asset holders so using the tax system to penalise such behaviour is not something I'm greatly bothered by.
There are multiple issues, not just one.
Now, personally, I am very happy to rent. If the choice is between having $1m invested in my business and me renting, and $1m invested in a house, I'll choose the former every time. And people should be allowed to make that choice.
What I think is most important to address is the fact that the housing market is inefficient. People live in houses that are too big for them, because trading down is so expensive because of stamp duty. And there are homes that are barely used.
The tax system should be encouraging the efficient allocation of scarce resources. Everything the government does in the housing market should be framed around that question, and raising stamp duty does the opposite. It makes the market less liquid, and discourages efficient allocation.
I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.
Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally
I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)
However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.
Wise decision.
The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.
If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
That could be called the ‘Leon Tax’. What a good idea!
Well, I wasn't specifically targeting him, but I don't think anyone would complain if he had to pay a little more council tax.
Thus far the rise in gilt yields seems to reflect expectations of higher short term rates from the bank of England, owing to stronger near term growth and inflation, rather than a rise in the term premium reflecting market nervousness. The 10 year yield and the two year yield alike are up about 10bp (0.1%) on Monday (the 2y yield is drive more by shortvend rate expectations). The expected short rate in Sep 2025 is actually up about 15bp. That picture could change of course but right now it's not looking very Truss like.
The 10 yr rose over 100 basis pts in the week following Truss. This triggered forced selling by PFs to meet margin calls, at which point the BoE stepped in to stop what was becoming a bit of a doom spiral. The whole thing was a gift to posterity for future CoEs because all budgets will forever look good by comparison.
The way that the Truss name has become synonymous with a disastrous unforced fiscal policy error among the international financial community is quite striking. She has achieved an immortality few politicians can boast of.
I complete the purchase of a 5 bedroom bungalow next Monday.
Because it needs adaptions for Mrs BJs disabilities we have to stay in our current property for about 3 months so had to pay the 3% additional SDLT. as we have 2 residences temporally
I see that goes up to 5% at midnight (an extra £12k)
However we exchanged contracts a week ago in case the bastard in no11 did precisely what she has done.
Wise decision.
The principle of higher transaction fees for multiple property owners isn't bad, though there should probably be allowances made for these kinds of situations. If anything it should be an additional 5% per property owned, that would have been bold.
The current system of stamp duty makes the market less liquid and discourages trading down. It therefore worsens the shortage of housing.
If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
A 200% premium on empty property isn't going to solve the issue of private renting having an economically deleterious effect. Private renting results in money flowing in the wrong direction, from workers to asset holders so using the tax system to penalise such behaviour is not something I'm greatly bothered by.
There are multiple issues, not just one.
Now, personally, I am very happy to rent. If the choice is between having $1m invested in my business and me renting, and $1m invested in a house, I'll choose the former every time. And people should be allowed to make that choice.
What I think is most important to address is the fact that the housing market is inefficient. People live in houses that are too big for them, because trading down is so expensive because of stamp duty. And there are homes that are barely used.
The tax system should be encouraging the efficient allocation of scarce resources. Everything the government does in the housing market should be framed around that question, and raising stamp duty does the opposite. It makes the market less liquid, and discourages efficient allocation.
That's true, but relative to other countries, the UK isn't particularly afflicted by people occupying more property than they need so focusing on this might be a kind of displacement activity. The real problem is population growth relative to the housing stock.
How much of the additional £22bn for the NHS will actually get spent on fixing the structural issues it has and how much will get pissed up against the wall?
It will fund foreign holidays and home improvements for NHS workers.
You think NHS workers should drop the pretensions and settle for Butlins?
We should recognise that giving pay rises to NHS workers isn't investment in the public sector but putting more money in private pockets.
It's a bit narrow to count only tangibles as investment. Eg what if you "invest" in a new road? Are you not going to include labour costs?
Construction costs of a tangible are investment.
Operation costs are not.
Those constructing a new hospital for instance fall under investment. Those operating it are not.
Capex vs Opex. NHS workers are Opex not Capex.
Sort of - but it can be something of a grey area. Eg new or better trained or more highly qualified staff might be needed to leverage the physical assets into improved outcomes.
Plus all people need a pay rise now and again, whatever they're working on.
Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson says: “Looks like what is going on here is short term fiscal loosening is boosting growth immediately. But hindering growth later on. Those later year forecasts are disappointing.”
“Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people. The employer NICs rise will further increase the incentive for employers to switch to contracting with the self-employed.”
But then the growth is forecast to pick up again at the end of the parliament. Interesting.
No it isn't, it's 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% for the final three years of the forecast. Going from 1.5% to 1.6% isn't anything like picking up and forecasts more than a year out are worthless to that degree of accuracy, the error ratio is massive.
Ah you're right, I was misreading the OBR's Chart 3.3.
(Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
With forecasts that far ahead, we’ll be lucky if it is accurate to + or minus….
It's not that we'd expect the forecast to be accurate in itself, but the difference between the forecast now and the forecast in March tells us interesting things about what has changed in the interim.
The comparison isn't good this time.
I can't believe the energy spent over forecasts that vary by tiny fractions over 5 years, that no-one believes are particularly accurate, based on plans from both parties that we all know wont be followed.
It's the best available metric for judging how well the budget measures are expected to affect growth. Not saying it's perfect, but the alternative is what?
Forecasting should be part of the process sure, but not the intense arguments about 1.6% or 1.7% growth rates over 5 years. Even six months after the fifth year has finished we still wouldn't know the growth rate to 0.1% accuracy, subsequent revisions will be more than that, which shows how pointless it is to argue about it now.
My reflections on the budget are broadly happy with where we have raised the money from, less happy how we are spending it, and think it is probably too timid (as opposed to the reaction suggesting it is too much).
A comment on the graph in the header: It's so bad that it also caused German, US and French 10 year yields to spike at the exact same time.... or there might be another cause. https://x.com/joozy1/status/1851645049366364256
I think the thing with reactions, rather than factual commentary, is to ignore it for the next week .
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wacky_Races_(1968_TV_series)#Race_results
No 22 billion then
I bet the System has pushed back on the amount of paperwork and process that would have to be binned, to build say 1,000,000 extra homes in 4 years.
Reeves was good in the chamber, as was Sunak, now that he’s free of responsibility for anything, other than helping to deliver us Johnson’s mess.
The other rising star is Darren Jones, who was excellent on BBC Politics.
The most painful change will be the drop in employers’ NI threshold, which will hit firms employing part-time and lower paid workers of any size (smaller firms being protected by the increase in small business allowance). I’d guess the threshold change will raise more ££ than the headline increase?
The money has to come from somewhere, and with luck the investment would boost growth in the economy to generate more sustainable tax revenue later. There's no pain-free tax increase.
Odd, I would say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqyKNnGihks
During my Administration, we had peace in the Middle East, and we will have peace again very soon! I will fix the problems caused by Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon. I want to see the Middle East return to real peace, a lasting peace, and we will get it done properly so it doesn’t repeat itself every 5 or 10 years! I will preserve the equal partnership among all Lebanese communities. Your friends and family in Lebanon deserve to live in peace, prosperity, and harmony with their neighbors, and that can only happen with peace and stability in the Middle East. I look forward to working with the Lebanese community living in the United States of America to ensure the safety and security of the great people of Lebanon. Vote Trump for Peace!
In terms of judging this government on the tasks it has set itself then things like: NHS waiting lists, A&E waiting times, cancer survival rates - those are the things to look at.
Instead the government should fix the lack of supply which it causes.
(Which is interesting anyway - have a look).
If you want to discourage second home ownership, then charge a 200% premium on council tax for properties that are lived in less than (say) 26 weeks a year. That would make people really think about whether they needed that place they barely live in. (It would be very expensive for me as I have a London flat I don't spend 26 weeks a year in. But it would be good for housing availability, because it would discourage people from owning assets they don't use.)
You can work out the implied forecast population growth rate. GDP is forecast to grow 2% in the same year. So that implies population growth of 0.59% in 2025. About +400k population growth. Natural population growth in 2023 was about +10k.
I will have to take action.
Initial thoughts on the budget - trying to be too clever, some silly gesture politics. Penny off a pint? Ridiculous.
Politically the bus fare cap will be very damaging, especially as in tandem with the fuel duty diseased rabbit it flies in the face of the Milibandite Reich of the Climate that is the flavour of this and every month.
Slow burner damage from employer NI - to consumers and employees.
Lacklustre growth and higher mortgage rates. Will 'investment' bear any fruit in time for any benefit to government?
People are in the mood to hate Starmer and Reeves etc. Yesterday and today are feeding that with any mitigation a long way off.
Tory and Reform poll leads by Xmas.
As for gilts - tomorrow a big day. If the fine print is super bad then a very quick reckoning possible. I doubt it though. I think just enough meh to spike any rate drops in short order.
The comparison isn't good this time.
"Chief Constable... I write to advise you that with effect from 5pm on Friday 1st of November all members will be withdrawing all goodwill in respect of policing. This will include actions to safeguard our members health and safety."
https://spf.org.uk/jcc-circular-11-of-2024-pay-update-2024-25-information/
Bad news: the factory itself was under 2m of water and the best case scenario is no production for at least the rest of the year. Considering customer demand and Christmas season and the lack of capability / capacity elsewhere, its going to be fun* to manage
https://x.com/uklabour/status/1851617817059045680
But I was curious if there's anything free out there that connects to bank accounts via the Open Banking standard that exists nowadays. Not been able to find one. GNUcash doesn't seem to do so and can't find anything else that does (found some that do in the States but not in the UK). Would prefer to do something via Open Banking than messing with CSV files etc
Any advice?
Unfortunately most of my Google searches are bringing back links to things like Xero but I'm not interested in paying for it as its not for a business just a personal interest.
Operation costs are not.
Those constructing a new hospital for instance fall under investment. Those operating it are not.
Capex vs Opex. NHS workers are Opex not Capex.
The 34-year-old prop deactivated his X account following his comments over the All Blacks' tradition - before later returning to social media and claiming he was "just having a bit of fun"."
https://news.sky.com/story/joe-marler-england-rugby-star-faces-backlash-after-saying-new-zealands-ridiculous-haka-needs-binning-13244656
Now, personally, I am very happy to rent. If the choice is between having $1m invested in my business and me renting, and $1m invested in a house, I'll choose the former every time. And people should be allowed to make that choice.
What I think is most important to address is the fact that the housing market is inefficient. People live in houses that are too big for them, because trading down is so expensive because of stamp duty. And there are homes that are barely used.
The tax system should be encouraging the efficient allocation of scarce resources. Everything the government does in the housing market should be framed around that question, and raising stamp duty does the opposite. It makes the market less liquid, and discourages efficient allocation.
The OBR is currently assuming Labour fail to hit their 1.5 million homes target by 200,000.
However, they haven't modelled the planning reform changes proposed since the election.
The easiest route to an upgrade in the growth forecast is delivering planning reform.
https://x.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1851651414105240004
And Jezza is on the warpath too
Plus all people need a pay rise now and again, whatever they're working on.
My reflections on the budget are broadly happy with where we have raised the money from, less happy how we are spending it, and think it is probably too timid (as opposed to the reaction suggesting it is too much).
6/10 or B-/C+ type grades from me.
A comment on the graph in the header:
It's so bad that it also caused German, US and French 10 year yields to spike at the exact same time.... or there might be another cause.
https://x.com/joozy1/status/1851645049366364256
I think the thing with reactions, rather than factual commentary, is to ignore it for the next week
Do we have a 4 year version of that graph?