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Liz Truss would be proud – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The underlying figures are dreadful, second worst income growth on record (to the pandemic era), flaccid growth, inflation running above target, borrowing up.
    I genuinely don't see where Labour get any feel good from to save them in 2028/9

    The gamble is they get enough feel good from the extra investment in rNHS, I think.
    Prediction the extra money for the nhs won't actually change numbers treated
    I'll second that. Sponges hold a suprising amount of water
    If that happens then this is a one term government.
    There has been quite a step change in delivery since July. With the strikes settled the brakes are off, and the number of long waiters drops every week on our Trust's delivery dashboard. Management is increasingly focussed on productivity rather than firefighting.

    We have a long way to go to get back to 2010 performance, and a lot hinges on how bad the winter flu season is (it was bad in Australia, and gets here 6 months later), but there is definite progress even in 4 months.

    Producer who has interest says it's great the government is listening to producer interests, shock.
    Settling the strikes was key to getting activity up and waiting lists down. The strikes were hobbling economic growth too. It was a sensible financial decision to do so.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,602

    Foxy said:

    Savanta snap poll
    41 27 good vs bad for the budget
    Big support for Minimum wage, NHS funding
    Neutral on NI
    Firmly against bus fare cap increase

    Initial verdict a relief for no 10 but no narrative changer yet

    This is what they will have been banking on.

    The NHS is a more tangible public priority than growth, but they can't l leave it too long.
    Getting waiting lists down to what they were in 2010 was a key promise and cannot be done overnight. If they fail to do that by the next election then they will lose tons of seats. Its a deal-breaker for their voters.
    Pagan2 and others will tell you that the NHS is a sponge and the extra money being spent on it will not alter the numbers treated or reduce waiting lists. But the experience from 1997 to 2010 says otherwise:

    image
    Sadly your graph doesn't show what you think it does. It just shows Labour are better at fiddling the figures. Try finding a similar graph to show waiting lists vs spending.
  • Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @EWagmeister

    Reggaeton superstar Nicky Jam has withdrawn his endorsement of Trump, saying, "You respect Puerto Rico."

    Nicky Jam appeared onstage with Trump 1 month ago in a MAGA hat.

    https://x.com/EWagmeister/status/1851692206903742598

    Trump respects no one.
    That is not true. He respects himself. Everyone must respect him.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    The underlying figures are dreadful, second worst income growth on record (to the pandemic era), flaccid growth, inflation running above target, borrowing up.
    I genuinely don't see where Labour get any feel good from to save them in 2028/9

    The gamble is they get enough feel good from the extra investment in rNHS, I think.
    Never gonna happen
    I suspect not either, but it sets them up to run the favourite “don’t let the Tories near the health service” line in 2029.
    Indeed. The 2029 campaign literature is already with the printers
    There's never been an election Labour haven't tried that literature.
    1931? Lol
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,557
    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Savanta snap poll
    41 27 good vs bad for the budget
    Big support for Minimum wage, NHS funding
    Neutral on NI
    Firmly against bus fare cap increase

    Initial verdict a relief for no 10 but no narrative changer yet

    This is what they will have been banking on.

    The NHS is a more tangible public priority than growth, but they can't l leave it too long.
    Getting waiting lists down to what they were in 2010 was a key promise and cannot be done overnight. If they fail to do that by the next election then they will lose tons of seats. Its a deal-breaker for their voters.
    Pagan2 and others will tell you that the NHS is a sponge and the extra money being spent on it will not alter the numbers treated or reduce waiting lists. But the experience from 1997 to 2010 says otherwise:

    image
    Your graph proves my point despite you thinking otherwise.

    The nhs has more employees now than in 2010, is better funded in real terms than 2010.....treats less people than in 2010....so all the extra money did nothing.

    By the way don't also neglect those waiting list numbers under new labour had rather a lot of fiddles done by trusts to meet the targets as was well documented at the time where clocks could be restarted by shenannigans

    2010 employees in nhs 1.4 million now 1.7 million
    2010 money spent on nhs 131 billion....current budget £196b billion

    Fuck the NHS.

    It's shit, takes on almost all the risk for the whole population's health, costs a fortune, and encourages national nannying.

    Move to a social insurance system for better healthcare outcomes.

    Like all sane countries do.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,881

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    One penny off a pint of beer was really taking the piss

    I'm glad it didn't go up, even though I don't often drink in pubs, but one penny off?

    What's the fucking point?

    while it is a token decrease, the interesting bit is that duty went up for non-draught beer, so there will be an increasing tax diferrential in favour of draught, and hence pubs over supermarkets.
    Oh I missed that. How fabulous. That's exactly the policy direction I've been calling for over many years.
    it needs to go a lot further. I would prefer higher tax on offsales, with corresponding cuts to on-sales, so people find pubs and bars better places to drink. More sociable too.
    I think it did go further. The differential is about 4.5%, which is a chunk.

    Draught Duty down by 1.7%.
    Non draught (eg supermarket, bottled) Duty up by 2.7%, which is the RPI.
    I maybe am reading this wrong but from what foxy said he wants tax to be high enough on supermarket beer to make drinking in a bar preferable. That for instance would put a four pack of doom bar from a supermarket to 17£ or so against the the current 5£
    I would personally like to see some rebalancing. I think it should be more expensive to drink at home, and less expensive to visit a pub/restaurant. I understand the very ingrained policy and societal reasons why that won’t happen, but in my dream world I’d see that change.
    Why do you think it should be more expensive to drink at home? You do know a lot of people do not value the pub experience and would rather avoid it....why should we be penalised because for some abstract reason you think it is a better experience?
    The advantage from a public policy perspective is that drinking in a licensed premises is under the supervision of the licensee. There should be a benefit in terms of monitoring potentially problematic drinkers.

    Also, in a world of working from home, I think there's also a benefit in encouraging people to get out of the house and mix socially.

    Finally, as an emblem of British culture, the pub is not a bad choice.

    Obviously when I advocated for this in the past there was an element of self-interest, as I went frequently to a pub for knit nights.
    Just because you aren't going to a pub doesn't mean you aren't socialising....thats a you problem not an everyone else problem.

    When I am drinking at home I am still sharing time with people just instead of doing as my father does and going down the pub and sitting with the same 3 people everytime I am chatting to friends all over the world from multiple continents....a virtual pub if you like.

    As to being under the supervision by a public licensee....hahahahahahahahahahahaha....if that were true why is the cost of policing a town centre on a saturday night so high?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,059

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The underlying figures are dreadful, second worst income growth on record (to the pandemic era), flaccid growth, inflation running above target, borrowing up.
    I genuinely don't see where Labour get any feel good from to save them in 2028/9

    The gamble is they get enough feel good from the extra investment in rNHS, I think.
    Prediction the extra money for the nhs won't actually change numbers treated
    I'll second that. Sponges hold a suprising amount of water
    If that happens then this is a one term government.
    There has been quite a step change in delivery since July. With the strikes settled the brakes are off, and the number of long waiters drops every week on our Trust's delivery dashboard. Management is increasingly focussed on productivity rather than firefighting.

    We have a long way to go to get back to 2010 performance, and a lot hinges on how bad the winter flu season is (it was bad in Australia, and gets here 6 months later), but there is definite progress even in 4 months.

    Producer who has interest says it's great the government is listening to producer interests, shock.
    The good thing about NHS outcomes is they’re well published, easy to understand and easy to judge success. So we’ll see.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,513

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:



    Greg Sargent
    @GregTSargent

    Whoa. New CNN polls:

    MICHIGAN
    Harris 48
    Trump 43

    WISCONSIN
    Harris 51
    Trump 45

    PENNSYLVANIA
    Harris 48
    Trump 48

    https://x.com/GregTSargent/status/1851658882558410908

    Serious Musk affect there if true?
    Anecdotal Musk effect. Was thinking of buying a new car last year and was quite intrigued by Tesla. Actually buying a car this year and didn't even give Tesla a minutes thought. Can't be alone.
    There are multiple reasons why I wouldn't purchase a Tesla

    Elon is one, the fact you can't open a door manually in an emergency is another..
    A brief look online suggests there is an emergency release mechanism.
    Good luck trying to remember how to find and trigger it in an actual emergency..
    We always have a tool for smashing windows in the drivers door pocket. Only used it once - not our car but someone’s keys were locked in and they didn’t want to wait for the aa…
    are you sure they were not actual car thieves?
    Yes. We were at an off road race in remote North Devon and the guy had just run 20 miles on the coast. Not typical thief behaviour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    edited October 30
    Foxy said:

    Leicester gets a goal back, but our defence is shocking...

    It seems, somewhat unfairly, that Ruud has explained that the object of the game is to put the white sphere into the opposing net. Something Man U have been finding incredibly difficult for over a year.

    Edit, perhaps he might also have mentioned the desirability of keeping the ball thing out of your own net.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,755
    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Savanta snap poll
    41 27 good vs bad for the budget
    Big support for Minimum wage, NHS funding
    Neutral on NI
    Firmly against bus fare cap increase

    Initial verdict a relief for no 10 but no narrative changer yet

    This is what they will have been banking on.

    The NHS is a more tangible public priority than growth, but they can't l leave it too long.
    Getting waiting lists down to what they were in 2010 was a key promise and cannot be done overnight. If they fail to do that by the next election then they will lose tons of seats. Its a deal-breaker for their voters.
    Pagan2 and others will tell you that the NHS is a sponge and the extra money being spent on it will not alter the numbers treated or reduce waiting lists. But the experience from 1997 to 2010 says otherwise:

    image
    Your graph proves my point despite you thinking otherwise.

    The nhs has more employees now than in 2010, is better funded in real terms than 2010.....treats less people than in 2010....so all the extra money did nothing.

    By the way don't also neglect those waiting list numbers under new labour had rather a lot of fiddles done by trusts to meet the targets as was well documented at the time where clocks could be restarted by shenannigans

    2010 employees in nhs 1.4 million now 1.7 million
    2010 money spent on nhs 131 billion....current budget £196b billion

    Well let's see how it looks in 5 years time.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,030
    Ratters said:

    Adjust the assumptions as you see fit but the principle definitely still stands.

    That's not how it works.

    With traditional financing you pay so much per month for 3 or 4 years, and at the end of the term you can either trade the vehicle using the equity you now own, or buy it outright.

    With a lease, the amount you pay every month is lower than the amount you would pay under HP. At the end of the term you have zero equity so you walk away or lease a new vehicle
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,881
    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Savanta snap poll
    41 27 good vs bad for the budget
    Big support for Minimum wage, NHS funding
    Neutral on NI
    Firmly against bus fare cap increase

    Initial verdict a relief for no 10 but no narrative changer yet

    This is what they will have been banking on.

    The NHS is a more tangible public priority than growth, but they can't l leave it too long.
    Getting waiting lists down to what they were in 2010 was a key promise and cannot be done overnight. If they fail to do that by the next election then they will lose tons of seats. Its a deal-breaker for their voters.
    Pagan2 and others will tell you that the NHS is a sponge and the extra money being spent on it will not alter the numbers treated or reduce waiting lists. But the experience from 1997 to 2010 says otherwise:

    image
    Your graph proves my point despite you thinking otherwise.

    The nhs has more employees now than in 2010, is better funded in real terms than 2010.....treats less people than in 2010....so all the extra money did nothing.

    By the way don't also neglect those waiting list numbers under new labour had rather a lot of fiddles done by trusts to meet the targets as was well documented at the time where clocks could be restarted by shenannigans

    2010 employees in nhs 1.4 million now 1.7 million
    2010 money spent on nhs 131 billion....current budget £196b billion

    Fuck the NHS.

    It's shit, takes on almost all the risk for the whole population's health, costs a fortune, and encourages national nannying.

    Move to a social insurance system for better healthcare outcomes.

    Like all sane countries do.
    The new model will have its work cut out dealing with tens of millions of cases of Stockholm Syndrome
  • Ratters said:

    This is a pretty big story from the world of finance.

    Car dealerships in chaos as shock ruling leaves market at risk of collapse

    Lenders pause vehicle loans as forecourts face dramatic rethink of sales practices


    Britain’s biggest banks and lenders are scrambling to avoid a collapse in the car sales market after a shock court judgement prompted chaos at forecourts across the country.

    A ruling from the Court of Appeal on commissions paid to car salesmen has forced several lenders to pause loans, and dealerships to urgently revise their sales practices to avoid a paralysis in the market.

    Lloyds Bank, one of the UK’s largest motor financiers through its Black Horse arm, became the latest lender to revamp its practices by abolishing bonuses paid to car dealers.

    The bank has introduced a “no commission” contract, meaning no fees will be paid to dealerships.

    William Chalmers, Lloyds’s chief of finance, held an urgent call with investors last night to explain the situation, saying it wanted to stand by its customers and the UK economy to carry on lending.

    Car finance is the biggest source of funding used by drivers to buy new vehicles, with nine in every 10 cars bought by motorists relying on a loan, according to Autotrader.

    There are fears a loan famine would effectively freeze up the market – damaging the already under-fire sector.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/30/ministers-scramble-to-prevent-car-sale-market-collapsing/

    The Lloyds position seems eminently sensible. Continue to lend but don't pay commission.

    The dealerships can adjust their sales pricing strategy with an explicit fee paid up front by the buyer. Or spread over time separate to the lease if they so wish.

    Frankly I'm amazed so many people buy new cars on lease. You pay for the most expensive part of the depreciation of a car, plus a very significant interest rate.
    Not just a shock today with new cars. Pick-Up trucks are being reclassified as cars for tax purposes. Which will have a pretty brutal impact on rural communities who use them to haul farm and construction stuff and their kids to and from school.
  • Nigelb said:

    Who on earth are the 38% ?

    "Do you think Trump respects women?"

    No: 49%
    Yes: 38%

    Unsure: 13%

    YouGov / Oct 29, 2024 / n=1587

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1851710090102886516

    At a guess, not women
    I will think about this. Hmmm............No.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,754

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Savanta snap poll
    41 27 good vs bad for the budget
    Big support for Minimum wage, NHS funding
    Neutral on NI
    Firmly against bus fare cap increase

    Initial verdict a relief for no 10 but no narrative changer yet

    This is what they will have been banking on.

    The NHS is a more tangible public priority than growth, but they can't l leave it too long.
    Getting waiting lists down to what they were in 2010 was a key promise and cannot be done overnight. If they fail to do that by the next election then they will lose tons of seats. Its a deal-breaker for their voters.
    Pagan2 and others will tell you that the NHS is a sponge and the extra money being spent on it will not alter the numbers treated or reduce waiting lists. But the experience from 1997 to 2010 says otherwise:

    image
    Your graph proves my point despite you thinking otherwise.

    The nhs has more employees now than in 2010, is better funded in real terms than 2010.....treats less people than in 2010....so all the extra money did nothing.

    By the way don't also neglect those waiting list numbers under new labour had rather a lot of fiddles done by trusts to meet the targets as was well documented at the time where clocks could be restarted by shenannigans

    2010 employees in nhs 1.4 million now 1.7 million
    2010 money spent on nhs 131 billion....current budget £196b billion

    Fuck the NHS.

    It's shit, takes on almost all the risk for the whole population's health, costs a fortune, and encourages national nannying.

    Move to a social insurance system for better healthcare outcomes.

    Like all sane countries do.
    Keep saying that till you need it....
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,845
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @EWagmeister

    Reggaeton superstar Nicky Jam has withdrawn his endorsement of Trump, saying, "You respect Puerto Rico."

    Nicky Jam appeared onstage with Trump 1 month ago in a MAGA hat.

    https://x.com/EWagmeister/status/1851692206903742598

    Trump respects no one.
    Though he does admire his daughter, in a way.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,059

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    One penny off a pint of beer was really taking the piss

    I'm glad it didn't go up, even though I don't often drink in pubs, but one penny off?

    What's the fucking point?

    while it is a token decrease, the interesting bit is that duty went up for non-draught beer, so there will be an increasing tax diferrential in favour of draught, and hence pubs over supermarkets.
    Oh I missed that. How fabulous. That's exactly the policy direction I've been calling for over many years.
    it needs to go a lot further. I would prefer higher tax on offsales, with corresponding cuts to on-sales, so people find pubs and bars better places to drink. More sociable too.
    I think it did go further. The differential is about 4.5%, which is a chunk.

    Draught Duty down by 1.7%.
    Non draught (eg supermarket, bottled) Duty up by 2.7%, which is the RPI.
    I maybe am reading this wrong but from what foxy said he wants tax to be high enough on supermarket beer to make drinking in a bar preferable. That for instance would put a four pack of doom bar from a supermarket to 17£ or so against the the current 5£
    I would personally like to see some rebalancing. I think it should be more expensive to drink at home, and less expensive to visit a pub/restaurant. I understand the very ingrained policy and societal reasons why that won’t happen, but in my dream world I’d see that change.
    Why do you think it should be more expensive to drink at home? You do know a lot of people do not value the pub experience and would rather avoid it....why should we be penalised because for some abstract reason you think it is a better experience?
    Admittedly I am being a bit flippant. But I am not entirely convinced that the level of cheap and easily consumable alcohol at home is necessarily a good thing. Whereas drinking out requires an actual effort to leave the house, and benefits the hospitality sector. But I think we can all rest assured it will never come to pass, so I think you’re safe!
    Here’s my daily photo allowance (which presumably will be small) with alcohol.

    I’m not convinced it’s cheap (4 acres of vines, pruning, tying down, spraying, equipment) or easily consumable (highly acidic, still fermenting) but it’s at home at least.


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,674
    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    Extreme position.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,949

    MaxPB said:

    Labour are touting “a penny off a pint” as a selling point of the budget.

    https://x.com/uklabour/status/1851617817059045680

    That's actually cringe as fuck. Pints will go up in price quite substantially to pay for all the additional NI.
    Well and when a pint is on average a £5....
    Any decent retail consultant will tell you that £4.99 sounds and sells way better?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Leicester gets a goal back, but our defence is shocking...

    It seems, somewhat unfairly, that Ruud has explained that the object of the game is to put the white sphere into the opposing net. Something Man U have been finding incredibly difficult for over a year.
    The key is to do it while preventing your opponent doing the same, something Cooper hasn't noticed.

    A crazy game.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The underlying figures are dreadful, second worst income growth on record (to the pandemic era), flaccid growth, inflation running above target, borrowing up.
    I genuinely don't see where Labour get any feel good from to save them in 2028/9

    The gamble is they get enough feel good from the extra investment in rNHS, I think.
    Prediction the extra money for the nhs won't actually change numbers treated
    I'll second that. Sponges hold a suprising amount of water
    If that happens then this is a one term government.
    There has been quite a step change in delivery since July. With the strikes settled the brakes are off, and the number of long waiters drops every week on our Trust's delivery dashboard. Management is increasingly focussed on productivity rather than firefighting.

    We have a long way to go to get back to 2010 performance, and a lot hinges on how bad the winter flu season is (it was bad in Australia, and gets here 6 months later), but there is definite progress even in 4 months.

    Producer who has interest says it's great the government is listening to producer interests, shock.
    Settling the strikes was key to getting activity up and waiting lists down. The strikes were hobbling economic growth too. It was a sensible financial decision to do so.

    And how long are the strikes settled for?
  • Ratters said:

    This is a pretty big story from the world of finance.

    Car dealerships in chaos as shock ruling leaves market at risk of collapse

    Lenders pause vehicle loans as forecourts face dramatic rethink of sales practices


    Britain’s biggest banks and lenders are scrambling to avoid a collapse in the car sales market after a shock court judgement prompted chaos at forecourts across the country.

    A ruling from the Court of Appeal on commissions paid to car salesmen has forced several lenders to pause loans, and dealerships to urgently revise their sales practices to avoid a paralysis in the market.

    Lloyds Bank, one of the UK’s largest motor financiers through its Black Horse arm, became the latest lender to revamp its practices by abolishing bonuses paid to car dealers.

    The bank has introduced a “no commission” contract, meaning no fees will be paid to dealerships.

    William Chalmers, Lloyds’s chief of finance, held an urgent call with investors last night to explain the situation, saying it wanted to stand by its customers and the UK economy to carry on lending.

    Car finance is the biggest source of funding used by drivers to buy new vehicles, with nine in every 10 cars bought by motorists relying on a loan, according to Autotrader.

    There are fears a loan famine would effectively freeze up the market – damaging the already under-fire sector.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/30/ministers-scramble-to-prevent-car-sale-market-collapsing/

    The Lloyds position seems eminently sensible. Continue to lend but don't pay commission.

    The dealerships can adjust their sales pricing strategy with an explicit fee paid up front by the buyer. Or spread over time separate to the lease if they so wish.

    Frankly I'm amazed so many people buy new cars on lease. You pay for the most expensive part of the depreciation of a car, plus a very significant interest rate.
    Not just a shock today with new cars. Pick-Up trucks are being reclassified as cars for tax purposes. Which will have a pretty brutal impact on rural communities who use them to haul farm and construction stuff and their kids to and from school.
    Pick up trucks are driven by builders round my way who generally do their best to run people off the road my way.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,030
    @Hadas_Gold

    Trump today: “The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times and all these papers. They're not endorsing anybody. You know what they're really saying? Because they only endorse Democrats. They're saying this Democrat’s no good. They're no good. And they think I'm doing a great job."

    https://x.com/Hadas_Gold/status/1851696510313890200
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,845

    Oliver Johnson
    @BristOliver
    ·
    1h
    If Rachel Reeves can break the rules on pre-announcing budget measures, I can break my self-imposed weekday Twitter exile for a graph which shows how much she's hiked the relative cost of employing people on low incomes.

    https://x.com/BristOliver/status/1851690941460922814

    You’re unable to view this Post because this account owner limits who can view their Posts.

    @BristOliver can f*ck right off.
    I get "Hmm... this page doesn’t exist. Try searching for something else.". I guess deleted? Or just Musk's twitter being sh*t.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,557

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Savanta snap poll
    41 27 good vs bad for the budget
    Big support for Minimum wage, NHS funding
    Neutral on NI
    Firmly against bus fare cap increase

    Initial verdict a relief for no 10 but no narrative changer yet

    This is what they will have been banking on.

    The NHS is a more tangible public priority than growth, but they can't l leave it too long.
    Getting waiting lists down to what they were in 2010 was a key promise and cannot be done overnight. If they fail to do that by the next election then they will lose tons of seats. Its a deal-breaker for their voters.
    Pagan2 and others will tell you that the NHS is a sponge and the extra money being spent on it will not alter the numbers treated or reduce waiting lists. But the experience from 1997 to 2010 says otherwise:

    image
    Your graph proves my point despite you thinking otherwise.

    The nhs has more employees now than in 2010, is better funded in real terms than 2010.....treats less people than in 2010....so all the extra money did nothing.

    By the way don't also neglect those waiting list numbers under new labour had rather a lot of fiddles done by trusts to meet the targets as was well documented at the time where clocks could be restarted by shenannigans

    2010 employees in nhs 1.4 million now 1.7 million
    2010 money spent on nhs 131 billion....current budget £196b billion

    Fuck the NHS.

    It's shit, takes on almost all the risk for the whole population's health, costs a fortune, and encourages national nannying.

    Move to a social insurance system for better healthcare outcomes.

    Like all sane countries do.
    Keep saying that till you need it....
    What I need is healthcare, not the NHS.

    This pious worship of a 1940s socialist model has to end.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,670
    WRT the budget, while like everyone else I can make individual criticisms, but over the big picture, what do her many critics think she should have done differently and how?

    I'm not at all sure I have heard or seen a radically 'alternative budget' covering the totality of tax, spend and borrow from anyone or anywhere; including from the Tories. Has anyone?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,557

    Foxy said:

    Nothing changes


    Sunak delivered higher taxes and higher prices too...
    Sunk delivered Covid? Sunak delivered the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

    Give over.
    He's a Labour shill in every respect except he can't quite bring himself to vote for them because it gives him the ick so, we get this.

    Every day.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,755
    So the tax take is set to rise to 38.2% GDP. Still lower than most of our Western European neighbours.

    Personally, I think once a society can feed, clothe, house, and keep itself warm, everything else should be spent on health, education and defence. Letting the populace spend their money on whatsoever they choose is a recipe for disaster. Much of it will be frittered away on tat from China that goes into landfill within 5 years.

    That might be a minority view.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The underlying figures are dreadful, second worst income growth on record (to the pandemic era), flaccid growth, inflation running above target, borrowing up.
    I genuinely don't see where Labour get any feel good from to save them in 2028/9

    The gamble is they get enough feel good from the extra investment in rNHS, I think.
    Prediction the extra money for the nhs won't actually change numbers treated
    I'll second that. Sponges hold a suprising amount of water
    If that happens then this is a one term government.
    There has been quite a step change in delivery since July. With the strikes settled the brakes are off, and the number of long waiters drops every week on our Trust's delivery dashboard. Management is increasingly focussed on productivity rather than firefighting.

    We have a long way to go to get back to 2010 performance, and a lot hinges on how bad the winter flu season is (it was bad in Australia, and gets here 6 months later), but there is definite progress even in 4 months.

    Producer who has interest says it's great the government is listening to producer interests, shock.
    Settling the strikes was key to getting activity up and waiting lists down. The strikes were hobbling economic growth too. It was a sensible financial decision to do so.

    And how long are the strikes settled for?
    None planned for this year and negotiations are not yet started for next year, so for the forseeable future.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,687
    Labour are now well on course to deliver their on time-trusted truism: they will leave office with fewer jobs than they inherited.

    Once thought excised from the dictionary, Labour will have thawed out the word "unemployment".

    All so predictable.

    And was predicted, in the run up to their inevitable July victory.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,881
    Andy_JS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    Extreme position.
    I visit a pub weekly because my father wants to go...its three odd hours of extreme tedium while paying 5 times as much for beer I actually don't want to drink and interacting with people I would rather never have to talk to ever again because they are tedious people and having to bite my tongue rather than telling them to fuck off for their idiocy
  • Scott_xP said:

    @Hadas_Gold

    Trump today: “The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times and all these papers. They're not endorsing anybody. You know what they're really saying? Because they only endorse Democrats. They're saying this Democrat’s no good. They're no good. And they think I'm doing a great job."

    https://x.com/Hadas_Gold/status/1851696510313890200

    They do not want to get punished if you win. Bezos Washington Post case in point.
  • How much does a near immediate, and forever, £100m pa L on a company's P&L statement affect its value?

    I think Royal Mail might be bankrupt by this stupid employment tax

    I guess it'll make it cheap for us to be renationalised..

    Then I can laugh when ENICs go up
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    kyf_100 said:

    As CGT is up with immediate effect, the amount I would now save by leaving the UK for 5 years stands at £59638 per annum over 5 years. Which is equivalent to a salary of 85k a year. Previous two jobs were 70k and 90k respectively, so split the difference and I can approximately afford to leave the UK, do nothing for five years, and end up in the same place as if I stayed here and worked.

    The main reason for staying is that I'm still young-ish in my 40s and quite like work.

    The main reason for leaving is the country is on its uppers and things are hardly likely to get better from here. Better to cash out now and enjoy one's retirement from warmer climes.

    I'm less concerned about paying an extra 4% a year, more worried that the country is going to continue to get worse and my quality of life here will continue to decline.

    As I said in the previous thread, if I do remain in the UK i will significantly alter my behaviour, making fewer capital disposals so as to incur less tax. If I leave I retire.

    Decisions, decisions.

    My feeling is that the UK is in terminal decline and this budget is another notch on the death spiral. The Tories screwed the pooch, but squeezing the life out of the private sector to give to the inefficient public sector is a one way ticket back to the 70s. So why not buy a one way ticket out...

    I've suggested a few times on here that we should have a UK FATCA. Would you renounce your British citizenship to avoid paying UK taxes? Genuinely interested.
    Yes.

    I qualify for residency/path to citizenship in Australia and Israel via family ties if push comes to shove. Both of which are approximately as bad on CGT but feel less in terminal decline than the UK.

    I'm less greedy than you think, my earning power has diminished substantially in the last couple of years. 90k was a given pre-pandemic, now I'd be lucky to scrape half that. So I am a working person in the sense that I want to work, but my actual ability to maintain my lifestyle is mostly dependent on investments I made years ago.

    I'm a classic example of homo economicus, I'll make decisions based on whatever maximises my income.

    Just like any business looking at employer's NI rise and going, I could create a new job in London, or I could create it in New York. The cost of creating the new job in the UK just rose significantly. In a knowledge economy, making brains more expensive to hire is ultimately self-defeating.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,557

    So the tax take is set to rise to 38.2% GDP. Still lower than most of our Western European neighbours.

    Personally, I think once a society can feed, clothe, house, and keep itself warm, everything else should be spent on health, education and defence. Letting the populace spend their money on whatsoever they choose is a recipe for disaster. Much of it will be frittered away on tat from China that goes into landfill within 5 years.

    That might be a minority view.

    Er, yeah. It is.

    The money people earn is theirs, not yours. Or the government's.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,078
    Scott_xP said:

    Ratters said:

    Adjust the assumptions as you see fit but the principle definitely still stands.

    That's not how it works.

    With traditional financing you pay so much per month for 3 or 4 years, and at the end of the term you can either trade the vehicle using the equity you now own, or buy it outright.

    With a lease, the amount you pay every month is lower than the amount you would pay under HP. At the end of the term you have zero equity so you walk away or lease a new vehicle
    It is how it works if you are borrowing money to buy a car outright and owning it for 12 years vs leasing a new car every 3 years.

    You could borrow the money on your mortgage and pay the cash up front if you want the 'buying' example to be simpler.

    You end up paying over double the cost by leasing and having a shiny new car every 3 years. Fine if that's what you value, but I find it strange that so many people prioritise that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,557

    Labour are now well on course to deliver their on time-trusted truism: they will leave office with fewer jobs than they inherited.

    Once thought excised from the dictionary, Labour will have thawed out the word "unemployment".

    All so predictable.

    And was predicted, in the run up to their inevitable July victory.

    How are all those people who said they thought Starmer was a secret "one nation Tory" feeling today?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,602

    So the tax take is set to rise to 38.2% GDP. Still lower than most of our Western European neighbours.

    Personally, I think once a society can feed, clothe, house, and keep itself warm, everything else should be spent on health, education and defence. Letting the populace spend their money on whatsoever they choose is a recipe for disaster. Much of it will be frittered away on tat from China that goes into landfill within 5 years.

    That might be a minority view.

    Outside of North Korea yes, very minority.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,919

    The underlying figures are dreadful, second worst income growth on record (to the pandemic era)

    Blimey. That's pretty impressive, to be doing only a little better than a once in a century pandemic.

    Lets hope nothing crazy happens soon which impacts defence, security, international trade, foreign relations and causes a crisis with major economic impact. I for one can't see anything on the horizon.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,557
    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    Extreme position.
    I visit a pub weekly because my father wants to go...its three odd hours of extreme tedium while paying 5 times as much for beer I actually don't want to drink and interacting with people I would rather never have to talk to ever again because they are tedious people and having to bite my tongue rather than telling them to fuck off for their idiocy
    You should go with me.

    Would turn your views on their head completely.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930

    Ratters said:

    This is a pretty big story from the world of finance.

    Car dealerships in chaos as shock ruling leaves market at risk of collapse

    Lenders pause vehicle loans as forecourts face dramatic rethink of sales practices


    Britain’s biggest banks and lenders are scrambling to avoid a collapse in the car sales market after a shock court judgement prompted chaos at forecourts across the country.

    A ruling from the Court of Appeal on commissions paid to car salesmen has forced several lenders to pause loans, and dealerships to urgently revise their sales practices to avoid a paralysis in the market.

    Lloyds Bank, one of the UK’s largest motor financiers through its Black Horse arm, became the latest lender to revamp its practices by abolishing bonuses paid to car dealers.

    The bank has introduced a “no commission” contract, meaning no fees will be paid to dealerships.

    William Chalmers, Lloyds’s chief of finance, held an urgent call with investors last night to explain the situation, saying it wanted to stand by its customers and the UK economy to carry on lending.

    Car finance is the biggest source of funding used by drivers to buy new vehicles, with nine in every 10 cars bought by motorists relying on a loan, according to Autotrader.

    There are fears a loan famine would effectively freeze up the market – damaging the already under-fire sector.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/30/ministers-scramble-to-prevent-car-sale-market-collapsing/

    The Lloyds position seems eminently sensible. Continue to lend but don't pay commission.

    The dealerships can adjust their sales pricing strategy with an explicit fee paid up front by the buyer. Or spread over time separate to the lease if they so wish.

    Frankly I'm amazed so many people buy new cars on lease. You pay for the most expensive part of the depreciation of a car, plus a very significant interest rate.
    Not just a shock today with new cars. Pick-Up trucks are being reclassified as cars for tax purposes. Which will have a pretty brutal impact on rural communities who use them to haul farm and construction stuff and their kids to and from school.
    It is astonishing that car salesmen have been getting away with undisclosed commissions to now. IFAs had had disclosure provisions for a decade or more in respect of commissions.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,881

    So the tax take is set to rise to 38.2% GDP. Still lower than most of our Western European neighbours.

    Personally, I think once a society can feed, clothe, house, and keep itself warm, everything else should be spent on health, education and defence. Letting the populace spend their money on whatsoever they choose is a recipe for disaster. Much of it will be frittered away on tat from China that goes into landfill within 5 years.

    That might be a minority view.

    Er, yeah. It is.

    The money people earn is theirs, not yours. Or the government's.
    Presumably people wouldn't be able to go see a concert, a play, see a movie, buy an album, go out for a meal, get a bottle of wine..... because after all they are fed clothed housed what more can they want
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    glw said:

    The underlying figures are dreadful, second worst income growth on record (to the pandemic era)

    Blimey. That's pretty impressive, to be doing only a little better than a once in a century pandemic.

    Lets hope nothing crazy happens soon which impacts defence, security, international trade, foreign relations and causes a crisis with major economic impact. I for one can't see anything on the horizon.

    I checked and you're right. Peace and security are guaranteed and there is absolutely no pressures on the global trade network nor unsustainable levels of debt and borrowing.
    We are in the clear for, like, a few decades
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,755
    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    Extreme position.
    I visit a pub weekly because my father wants to go...its three odd hours of extreme tedium while paying 5 times as much for beer I actually don't want to drink and interacting with people I would rather never have to talk to ever again because they are tedious people and having to bite my tongue rather than telling them to fuck off for their idiocy
    Brilliant! I hope one day to wander into the same pub as you. The snarling misanthropy will be very entertaining.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,845
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    One penny off a pint of beer was really taking the piss

    I'm glad it didn't go up, even though I don't often drink in pubs, but one penny off?

    What's the fucking point?

    while it is a token decrease, the interesting bit is that duty went up for non-draught beer, so there will be an increasing tax diferrential in favour of draught, and hence pubs over supermarkets.
    Oh I missed that. How fabulous. That's exactly the policy direction I've been calling for over many years.
    it needs to go a lot further. I would prefer higher tax on offsales, with corresponding cuts to on-sales, so people find pubs and bars better places to drink. More sociable too.
    You want to tax me hard, don't you?

    Should I just bend over while you get a huge payrise?
    No he obviously has a preference for his local pub to stay open so we must all be forced to drink his way I suspect
    Most 'local pub champions' use it once a year for an hour Christmas Day lunchtime and expect to be greeted like conquering heroes on entering.
    Frankly I would be happy to never enter a bar again...they are generally full of boring people with body odour that want to talk about nothing but football or cricket, assuming you can even talk over the volume of the music. Then at some point in the evening someone will turn into an arsehole and cause a scene....yeah no thanks
    I really dislike pubs. I can just about take a beer garden providing they're not too busy. Somewhere in my imagination there is an idyllic pub, where people speak softly to a friend and mind their own business. Possibly even a warm fire and some decent scran if needed.

    I have an especial dislike for the newer blokey "gastro-pub but we're not really a gastro-pub because that sounds non-blokey" places. Craving their Michelin Star so they can really ramp the prices up and keep the riff-raff out.

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,881

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    Extreme position.
    I visit a pub weekly because my father wants to go...its three odd hours of extreme tedium while paying 5 times as much for beer I actually don't want to drink and interacting with people I would rather never have to talk to ever again because they are tedious people and having to bite my tongue rather than telling them to fuck off for their idiocy
    You should go with me.

    Would turn your views on their head completely.
    I very much doubt it. I don't like pubs full stop
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    So the tax take is set to rise to 38.2% GDP. Still lower than most of our Western European neighbours.

    Personally, I think once a society can feed, clothe, house, and keep itself warm, everything else should be spent on health, education and defence. Letting the populace spend their money on whatsoever they choose is a recipe for disaster. Much of it will be frittered away on tat from China that goes into landfill within 5 years.

    That might be a minority view.

    Outside of North Korea yes, very minority.
    Tony Benn was very much of the clothe, house, heat, power and feed the drones then give them pocket money for occasional state approved moments of joy.
    Gross.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,030
    Ratters said:

    It is how it works if you are borrowing money to buy a car outright and owning it for 12 years vs leasing a new car every 3 years.

    You are trying to compare apples and oranges.

    You could pay 1000 a month for for 6 years and then nothing for 6 years and end up with a 12 year old car

    Or you could pay 700 a month for 12 years and have 4 new cars

    Take your pick. Get more value for your money

    For many people the second option is preferable
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    ohnotnow said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    One penny off a pint of beer was really taking the piss

    I'm glad it didn't go up, even though I don't often drink in pubs, but one penny off?

    What's the fucking point?

    while it is a token decrease, the interesting bit is that duty went up for non-draught beer, so there will be an increasing tax diferrential in favour of draught, and hence pubs over supermarkets.
    Oh I missed that. How fabulous. That's exactly the policy direction I've been calling for over many years.
    it needs to go a lot further. I would prefer higher tax on offsales, with corresponding cuts to on-sales, so people find pubs and bars better places to drink. More sociable too.
    You want to tax me hard, don't you?

    Should I just bend over while you get a huge payrise?
    No he obviously has a preference for his local pub to stay open so we must all be forced to drink his way I suspect
    Most 'local pub champions' use it once a year for an hour Christmas Day lunchtime and expect to be greeted like conquering heroes on entering.
    Frankly I would be happy to never enter a bar again...they are generally full of boring people with body odour that want to talk about nothing but football or cricket, assuming you can even talk over the volume of the music. Then at some point in the evening someone will turn into an arsehole and cause a scene....yeah no thanks
    I really dislike pubs. I can just about take a beer garden providing they're not too busy. Somewhere in my imagination there is an idyllic pub, where people speak softly to a friend and mind their own business. Possibly even a warm fire and some decent scran if needed.

    I have an especial dislike for the newer blokey "gastro-pub but we're not really a gastro-pub because that sounds non-blokey" places. Craving their Michelin Star so they can really ramp the prices up and keep the riff-raff out.

    I really like pubs when I go with my mates and we indulge in banter and taking the piss out of each other. Its a fantastic way to destress. I would never go to one on my own.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,515

    Ratters said:

    This is a pretty big story from the world of finance.

    Car dealerships in chaos as shock ruling leaves market at risk of collapse

    Lenders pause vehicle loans as forecourts face dramatic rethink of sales practices


    Britain’s biggest banks and lenders are scrambling to avoid a collapse in the car sales market after a shock court judgement prompted chaos at forecourts across the country.

    A ruling from the Court of Appeal on commissions paid to car salesmen has forced several lenders to pause loans, and dealerships to urgently revise their sales practices to avoid a paralysis in the market.

    Lloyds Bank, one of the UK’s largest motor financiers through its Black Horse arm, became the latest lender to revamp its practices by abolishing bonuses paid to car dealers.

    The bank has introduced a “no commission” contract, meaning no fees will be paid to dealerships.

    William Chalmers, Lloyds’s chief of finance, held an urgent call with investors last night to explain the situation, saying it wanted to stand by its customers and the UK economy to carry on lending.

    Car finance is the biggest source of funding used by drivers to buy new vehicles, with nine in every 10 cars bought by motorists relying on a loan, according to Autotrader.

    There are fears a loan famine would effectively freeze up the market – damaging the already under-fire sector.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/30/ministers-scramble-to-prevent-car-sale-market-collapsing/

    The Lloyds position seems eminently sensible. Continue to lend but don't pay commission.

    The dealerships can adjust their sales pricing strategy with an explicit fee paid up front by the buyer. Or spread over time separate to the lease if they so wish.

    Frankly I'm amazed so many people buy new cars on lease. You pay for the most expensive part of the depreciation of a car, plus a very significant interest rate.
    Not just a shock today with new cars. Pick-Up trucks are being reclassified as cars for tax purposes. Which will have a pretty brutal impact on rural communities who use them to haul farm and construction stuff and their kids to and from school.
    Pick up trucks are driven by builders round my way who generally do their best to run people off the road my way.
    https://youtu.be/Nmv5vK96KXY?si=7oPMIC7Yfv5QNeZe

    Well worth it, just for the scene where Patrick MacGoohan fights nearly to the death, without stopping smoking his roll up.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,729
    Scott_xP said:

    @Hadas_Gold

    Trump today: “The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times and all these papers. They're not endorsing anybody. You know what they're really saying? Because they only endorse Democrats. They're saying this Democrat’s no good. They're no good. And they think I'm doing a great job."

    https://x.com/Hadas_Gold/status/1851696510313890200

    Of course this was inevitable. But it rather brings out the lies in Bezos' bullshit about it being about trust and impartiality rather than fretting about Trump's possible revenge.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,881

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    Extreme position.
    I visit a pub weekly because my father wants to go...its three odd hours of extreme tedium while paying 5 times as much for beer I actually don't want to drink and interacting with people I would rather never have to talk to ever again because they are tedious people and having to bite my tongue rather than telling them to fuck off for their idiocy
    Brilliant! I hope one day to wander into the same pub as you. The snarling misanthropy will be very entertaining.
    I am not a misanthrope, if I was I would hardly have friends across the globe and even visit them or they visit me. I am merely not a fan of people just because they happen to be what happens to be in the local pub, I like people because they are interesting not because they happen to live close by and would rather choose who I consort with rather than endure the carbuncle on humanities rectum that happen to be in my locale
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,515
    DavidL said:

    Ratters said:

    This is a pretty big story from the world of finance.

    Car dealerships in chaos as shock ruling leaves market at risk of collapse

    Lenders pause vehicle loans as forecourts face dramatic rethink of sales practices


    Britain’s biggest banks and lenders are scrambling to avoid a collapse in the car sales market after a shock court judgement prompted chaos at forecourts across the country.

    A ruling from the Court of Appeal on commissions paid to car salesmen has forced several lenders to pause loans, and dealerships to urgently revise their sales practices to avoid a paralysis in the market.

    Lloyds Bank, one of the UK’s largest motor financiers through its Black Horse arm, became the latest lender to revamp its practices by abolishing bonuses paid to car dealers.

    The bank has introduced a “no commission” contract, meaning no fees will be paid to dealerships.

    William Chalmers, Lloyds’s chief of finance, held an urgent call with investors last night to explain the situation, saying it wanted to stand by its customers and the UK economy to carry on lending.

    Car finance is the biggest source of funding used by drivers to buy new vehicles, with nine in every 10 cars bought by motorists relying on a loan, according to Autotrader.

    There are fears a loan famine would effectively freeze up the market – damaging the already under-fire sector.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/30/ministers-scramble-to-prevent-car-sale-market-collapsing/

    The Lloyds position seems eminently sensible. Continue to lend but don't pay commission.

    The dealerships can adjust their sales pricing strategy with an explicit fee paid up front by the buyer. Or spread over time separate to the lease if they so wish.

    Frankly I'm amazed so many people buy new cars on lease. You pay for the most expensive part of the depreciation of a car, plus a very significant interest rate.
    Not just a shock today with new cars. Pick-Up trucks are being reclassified as cars for tax purposes. Which will have a pretty brutal impact on rural communities who use them to haul farm and construction stuff and their kids to and from school.
    It is astonishing that car salesmen have been getting away with undisclosed commissions to now. IFAs had had disclosure provisions for a decade or more in respect of commissions.
    Car finance is a cesspit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,755

    So the tax take is set to rise to 38.2% GDP. Still lower than most of our Western European neighbours.

    Personally, I think once a society can feed, clothe, house, and keep itself warm, everything else should be spent on health, education and defence. Letting the populace spend their money on whatsoever they choose is a recipe for disaster. Much of it will be frittered away on tat from China that goes into landfill within 5 years.

    That might be a minority view.

    Er, yeah. It is.

    The money people earn is theirs, not yours. Or the government's.
    Well it's certainly not mine.

    I was being tongue-in-cheek of course but in some sense the government is not an alternative to the people, it's simply people coming together to do things that they can't do individually. Or at least, it should be.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,018
    Those attacked ballot drop boxes in Vancouver and Portland? Turns out messages were found with them: "Ballot box fires in Oregon and Washington were linked to devices that had the message “Free Gaza” marked on them, The Associated Press (AP) is reporting, citing an anonymous police source.

    Officials discovered another incendiary device placed on a third box in Vancouver, Wash., with the words “Free Palestine” and “Free Gaza” earlier this month, the AP reported."
    source: https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/4962100-ballot-box-fires-linked-free-gaza/

    And an old Volvo was seen leaving one of the scenes. (In the US, Volvos are much more likely to be owned by urban leftists, than by conservatives.)

    Could be a false flag operation, of course.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,059
    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    An Englishman, an Irishman and a Scotsman walk into a pub. The Englishman is @Pagan2 . The Scotsman is @malcolmg . Who’s volunteering to be the Irishman? Perhaps @SeaShantyIrish2 if his armpits are suitably sweaty.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,059
    glw said:

    The underlying figures are dreadful, second worst income growth on record (to the pandemic era)

    Blimey. That's pretty impressive, to be doing only a little better than a once in a century pandemic.

    Lets hope nothing crazy happens soon which impacts defence, security, international trade, foreign relations and causes a crisis with major economic impact. I for one can't see anything on the horizon.

    No, it’s all looking fairly stable right now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    An Englishman, an Irishman and a Scotsman walk into a pub. The Englishman is @Pagan2 . The Scotsman is @malcolmg . Who’s volunteering to be the Irishman? Perhaps @SeaShantyIrish2 if his armpits are suitably sweaty.
    I believe @Alanbrooke is an Ulsterman? Would that count?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    algarkirk said:

    WRT the budget, while like everyone else I can make individual criticisms, but over the big picture, what do her many critics think she should have done differently and how?

    I'm not at all sure I have heard or seen a radically 'alternative budget' covering the totality of tax, spend and borrow from anyone or anywhere; including from the Tories. Has anyone?

    I've had a go, albeit only in the broadest of terms. I said I broadly agreed with the tax rises but was appalled at the level of additional spending and, consequentially, borrowing. A reset should have put us on an even keel. Our borrowing has been out of control since Covid. It is actually quite scary that it is going higher.

    I would accept that we needed more money on defence and Ukraine. I would even accept that the NHS is currently a bottomless pit and that, until we find a better way, there is not much choice about throwing more money at it. But the priority should have been to find as many cuts as possible to offset these additional sums and, at the very least, keep the increase in spending to less than the increase in taxes.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,059
    ohnotnow said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    One penny off a pint of beer was really taking the piss

    I'm glad it didn't go up, even though I don't often drink in pubs, but one penny off?

    What's the fucking point?

    while it is a token decrease, the interesting bit is that duty went up for non-draught beer, so there will be an increasing tax diferrential in favour of draught, and hence pubs over supermarkets.
    Oh I missed that. How fabulous. That's exactly the policy direction I've been calling for over many years.
    it needs to go a lot further. I would prefer higher tax on offsales, with corresponding cuts to on-sales, so people find pubs and bars better places to drink. More sociable too.
    You want to tax me hard, don't you?

    Should I just bend over while you get a huge payrise?
    No he obviously has a preference for his local pub to stay open so we must all be forced to drink his way I suspect
    Most 'local pub champions' use it once a year for an hour Christmas Day lunchtime and expect to be greeted like conquering heroes on entering.
    Frankly I would be happy to never enter a bar again...they are generally full of boring people with body odour that want to talk about nothing but football or cricket, assuming you can even talk over the volume of the music. Then at some point in the evening someone will turn into an arsehole and cause a scene....yeah no thanks
    I really dislike pubs. I can just about take a beer garden providing they're not too busy. Somewhere in my imagination there is an idyllic pub, where people speak softly to a friend and mind their own business. Possibly even a warm fire and some decent scran if needed.

    I have an especial dislike for the newer blokey "gastro-pub but we're not really a gastro-pub because that sounds non-blokey" places. Craving their Michelin Star so they can really ramp the prices up and keep the riff-raff out.

    They don’t call themselves gastropubs because that’s what chain pubs that serve Cajun chicken do. Along with the “duck or grouse” sign.

    And best avoid anywhere whose menu has an item prefaced with “our famous”. They’re not famous.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,881
    DavidL said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    One penny off a pint of beer was really taking the piss

    I'm glad it didn't go up, even though I don't often drink in pubs, but one penny off?

    What's the fucking point?

    while it is a token decrease, the interesting bit is that duty went up for non-draught beer, so there will be an increasing tax diferrential in favour of draught, and hence pubs over supermarkets.
    Oh I missed that. How fabulous. That's exactly the policy direction I've been calling for over many years.
    it needs to go a lot further. I would prefer higher tax on offsales, with corresponding cuts to on-sales, so people find pubs and bars better places to drink. More sociable too.
    You want to tax me hard, don't you?

    Should I just bend over while you get a huge payrise?
    No he obviously has a preference for his local pub to stay open so we must all be forced to drink his way I suspect
    Most 'local pub champions' use it once a year for an hour Christmas Day lunchtime and expect to be greeted like conquering heroes on entering.
    Frankly I would be happy to never enter a bar again...they are generally full of boring people with body odour that want to talk about nothing but football or cricket, assuming you can even talk over the volume of the music. Then at some point in the evening someone will turn into an arsehole and cause a scene....yeah no thanks
    I really dislike pubs. I can just about take a beer garden providing they're not too busy. Somewhere in my imagination there is an idyllic pub, where people speak softly to a friend and mind their own business. Possibly even a warm fire and some decent scran if needed.

    I have an especial dislike for the newer blokey "gastro-pub but we're not really a gastro-pub because that sounds non-blokey" places. Craving their Michelin Star so they can really ramp the prices up and keep the riff-raff out.

    I really like pubs when I go with my mates and we indulge in banter and taking the piss out of each other. Its a fantastic way to destress. I would never go to one on my own.
    Some people enjoy pubs, some don't. I am in the latter camp

    Much like being in the office vs wfh....some are better suited to both

    However I find that while I have no problem with other people going to the office and drinking in the pub it is the ones that prefer the other side that want to force me into their preferred style. I don't advocate them being forced to wfh or drink at home
  • algarkirk said:

    WRT the budget, while like everyone else I can make individual criticisms, but over the big picture, what do her many critics think she should have done differently and how?

    I'm not at all sure I have heard or seen a radically 'alternative budget' covering the totality of tax, spend and borrow from anyone or anywhere; including from the Tories. Has anyone?

    Again, I don't really understand why there hasn't been less outcry from the left over the absence of the green deal growth policy. That does represent one of the only viable different models and totalities, of the type you describe.

    As I've mentioned, I have a strong suspicion that some of the rest of this budget, and its calculations, were originally built around this policy ; it could be thr more soft-left of the party were given assurances that it will be be back soon, if the NHS improvements work first.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,755

    So the tax take is set to rise to 38.2% GDP. Still lower than most of our Western European neighbours.

    Personally, I think once a society can feed, clothe, house, and keep itself warm, everything else should be spent on health, education and defence. Letting the populace spend their money on whatsoever they choose is a recipe for disaster. Much of it will be frittered away on tat from China that goes into landfill within 5 years.

    That might be a minority view.

    Outside of North Korea yes, very minority.
    I suspect it's a minority view inside North Korea too, tbf.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259
    edited October 30

    DavidL said:

    Ratters said:

    This is a pretty big story from the world of finance.

    Car dealerships in chaos as shock ruling leaves market at risk of collapse

    Lenders pause vehicle loans as forecourts face dramatic rethink of sales practices


    Britain’s biggest banks and lenders are scrambling to avoid a collapse in the car sales market after a shock court judgement prompted chaos at forecourts across the country.

    A ruling from the Court of Appeal on commissions paid to car salesmen has forced several lenders to pause loans, and dealerships to urgently revise their sales practices to avoid a paralysis in the market.

    Lloyds Bank, one of the UK’s largest motor financiers through its Black Horse arm, became the latest lender to revamp its practices by abolishing bonuses paid to car dealers.

    The bank has introduced a “no commission” contract, meaning no fees will be paid to dealerships.

    William Chalmers, Lloyds’s chief of finance, held an urgent call with investors last night to explain the situation, saying it wanted to stand by its customers and the UK economy to carry on lending.

    Car finance is the biggest source of funding used by drivers to buy new vehicles, with nine in every 10 cars bought by motorists relying on a loan, according to Autotrader.

    There are fears a loan famine would effectively freeze up the market – damaging the already under-fire sector.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/30/ministers-scramble-to-prevent-car-sale-market-collapsing/

    The Lloyds position seems eminently sensible. Continue to lend but don't pay commission.

    The dealerships can adjust their sales pricing strategy with an explicit fee paid up front by the buyer. Or spread over time separate to the lease if they so wish.

    Frankly I'm amazed so many people buy new cars on lease. You pay for the most expensive part of the depreciation of a car, plus a very significant interest rate.
    Not just a shock today with new cars. Pick-Up trucks are being reclassified as cars for tax purposes. Which will have a pretty brutal impact on rural communities who use them to haul farm and construction stuff and their kids to and from school.
    It is astonishing that car salesmen have been getting away with undisclosed commissions to now. IFAs had had disclosure provisions for a decade or more in respect of commissions.
    Car finance is a cesspit.
    I am surprised over the past few years with all the challenges people have faced it hasn't blown up. Everybody is basically shoved towards you must take finance when you try and buy a car these days.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,881
    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    An Englishman, an Irishman and a Scotsman walk into a pub. The Englishman is @Pagan2 . The Scotsman is @malcolmg . Who’s volunteering to be the Irishman? Perhaps @SeaShantyIrish2 if his armpits are suitably sweaty.
    I am not english don't be so offensive
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,845
    DavidL said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    One penny off a pint of beer was really taking the piss

    I'm glad it didn't go up, even though I don't often drink in pubs, but one penny off?

    What's the fucking point?

    while it is a token decrease, the interesting bit is that duty went up for non-draught beer, so there will be an increasing tax diferrential in favour of draught, and hence pubs over supermarkets.
    Oh I missed that. How fabulous. That's exactly the policy direction I've been calling for over many years.
    it needs to go a lot further. I would prefer higher tax on offsales, with corresponding cuts to on-sales, so people find pubs and bars better places to drink. More sociable too.
    You want to tax me hard, don't you?

    Should I just bend over while you get a huge payrise?
    No he obviously has a preference for his local pub to stay open so we must all be forced to drink his way I suspect
    Most 'local pub champions' use it once a year for an hour Christmas Day lunchtime and expect to be greeted like conquering heroes on entering.
    Frankly I would be happy to never enter a bar again...they are generally full of boring people with body odour that want to talk about nothing but football or cricket, assuming you can even talk over the volume of the music. Then at some point in the evening someone will turn into an arsehole and cause a scene....yeah no thanks
    I really dislike pubs. I can just about take a beer garden providing they're not too busy. Somewhere in my imagination there is an idyllic pub, where people speak softly to a friend and mind their own business. Possibly even a warm fire and some decent scran if needed.

    I have an especial dislike for the newer blokey "gastro-pub but we're not really a gastro-pub because that sounds non-blokey" places. Craving their Michelin Star so they can really ramp the prices up and keep the riff-raff out.

    I really like pubs when I go with my mates and we indulge in banter and taking the piss out of each other. Its a fantastic way to destress. I would never go to one on my own.
    I have no problem at all with people who like pubs. One of my best friends loves pubs. I just have never been of that faith. I would also never go to a pub on my own. I ... just don't like pubs.
  • Hasn't been *more* outcry from the left, that should obviously be !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259
    edited October 30
    The VAT on school fees will produce £9 billion over the forecast period.

    I have a bridge to sell if anybody believes this will come true.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,258

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, someone didn't like Schwarzenegger endorsing Harris.

    Andrew Tate replying to @Scwarzenegger
    The worst thing about going from nothing to super rich and famous as I have is realising all your heros are sellouts.

    You meet these people you once loved, and trust me, youre dissapointed.

    So sad.


    Being serious, given his past comments about January 6th it's not like it would have surprised anyone which way Arnold was learning.

    I must admit, I'm pretty disappointed that Andrew Tate can't spell. I'm sure I wasn't alone in thinking of him as having a giant intellect.
    What’s striking, sort of persuasive to me in the big yougov polling effort for CES is how it deviates between appalling for Kam in the sun belt, but reasonably comfortably handing her the election via the rust belt.

    The fact some samples are nearly a month old doesn’t worry me, as I think this final week has been owned by Harris.
    Big Joe undid any positives with his basket of deplorables redux yesterday. Trumpslide for me, 350 EC plus
    I don't think "deplorables" or the Puerto Rico thing have any real impact on voters.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,059
    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    An Englishman, an Irishman and a Scotsman walk into a pub. The Englishman is @Pagan2 . The Scotsman is @malcolmg . Who’s volunteering to be the Irishman? Perhaps @SeaShantyIrish2 if his armpits are suitably sweaty.
    I believe @Alanbrooke is an Ulsterman? Would that count?
    He’d need to be in an angry mood. Perhaps warm him up on some Starmer speeches beforehand.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,888
    ohnotnow said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    One penny off a pint of beer was really taking the piss

    I'm glad it didn't go up, even though I don't often drink in pubs, but one penny off?

    What's the fucking point?

    while it is a token decrease, the interesting bit is that duty went up for non-draught beer, so there will be an increasing tax diferrential in favour of draught, and hence pubs over supermarkets.
    Oh I missed that. How fabulous. That's exactly the policy direction I've been calling for over many years.
    it needs to go a lot further. I would prefer higher tax on offsales, with corresponding cuts to on-sales, so people find pubs and bars better places to drink. More sociable too.
    You want to tax me hard, don't you?

    Should I just bend over while you get a huge payrise?
    No he obviously has a preference for his local pub to stay open so we must all be forced to drink his way I suspect
    Most 'local pub champions' use it once a year for an hour Christmas Day lunchtime and expect to be greeted like conquering heroes on entering.
    Frankly I would be happy to never enter a bar again...they are generally full of boring people with body odour that want to talk about nothing but football or cricket, assuming you can even talk over the volume of the music. Then at some point in the evening someone will turn into an arsehole and cause a scene....yeah no thanks
    I really dislike pubs. I can just about take a beer garden providing they're not too busy. Somewhere in my imagination there is an idyllic pub, where people speak softly to a friend and mind their own business. Possibly even a warm fire and some decent scran if needed.

    I have an especial dislike for the newer blokey "gastro-pub but we're not really a gastro-pub because that sounds non-blokey" places. Craving their Michelin Star so they can really ramp the prices up and keep the riff-raff out.

    Pubs differ massively. Our local (nicknamed the 'Asbo Arms') is cr@p. But there are so many different types and ambiances that I can't imagine someone not liking any of them.

    I find gastropubs (there are a couple of good ones around here) great for food, but not for general drinking. A small pub in a nearby village is great for snuggling in the corner with a pint and a paper or a magazine, and just reading. Another makes you feel welcome the moment you enter the door.

    I have so many fond memories of pubs. When I was walking Glyndwr's Way in mid-Wales, I stopped off mid-afternoon at a pub in a tiny village called Llangunllo, just wanting my water bottle filled before I camped out on the tops. The landlord was an ancient man in his nineties being visited by a nurse, and he told me just I could pull my own pint if I wanted.

    The next day I descended from my camping spot into the next valley into a village, and I again wanted my water bottle filled. I nipped into the post office, whose owner turned out to be a relative of the pub landlord from the previous day, and she gave me a cup of tea and some cake! People would walk into the post office and take goods, the owner writing the purchases down in a little book for later settlement.

    I have so many pleasant stories about pubs... and a handful of not-nice ones as well. But generally a small country pub can be a heavenly place.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    TimS said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    One penny off a pint of beer was really taking the piss

    I'm glad it didn't go up, even though I don't often drink in pubs, but one penny off?

    What's the fucking point?

    while it is a token decrease, the interesting bit is that duty went up for non-draught beer, so there will be an increasing tax diferrential in favour of draught, and hence pubs over supermarkets.
    Oh I missed that. How fabulous. That's exactly the policy direction I've been calling for over many years.
    it needs to go a lot further. I would prefer higher tax on offsales, with corresponding cuts to on-sales, so people find pubs and bars better places to drink. More sociable too.
    You want to tax me hard, don't you?

    Should I just bend over while you get a huge payrise?
    No he obviously has a preference for his local pub to stay open so we must all be forced to drink his way I suspect
    Most 'local pub champions' use it once a year for an hour Christmas Day lunchtime and expect to be greeted like conquering heroes on entering.
    Frankly I would be happy to never enter a bar again...they are generally full of boring people with body odour that want to talk about nothing but football or cricket, assuming you can even talk over the volume of the music. Then at some point in the evening someone will turn into an arsehole and cause a scene....yeah no thanks
    I really dislike pubs. I can just about take a beer garden providing they're not too busy. Somewhere in my imagination there is an idyllic pub, where people speak softly to a friend and mind their own business. Possibly even a warm fire and some decent scran if needed.

    I have an especial dislike for the newer blokey "gastro-pub but we're not really a gastro-pub because that sounds non-blokey" places. Craving their Michelin Star so they can really ramp the prices up and keep the riff-raff out.

    They don’t call themselves gastropubs because that’s what chain pubs that serve Cajun chicken do. Along with the “duck or grouse” sign.

    And best avoid anywhere whose menu has an item prefaced with “our famous”. They’re not famous.
    And menus that invite you to 'level up' anything can fuck right off
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474

    The VAT on school fees will produce £9 billion over the forecast period.

    I have a bridge to sell if anybody believes this will come true.

    For £9 billion, or a bit less?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,018
    "I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice"

    Well, tastes differ, but I have to admit that's a new one on me. But if you and the American are both consenting adults, then I have no objection, but I think a bit of privacy would be appropriate.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,562
    Scott_xP said:

    @RyanShead

    I have nothing to add to what Aubrey Plaza said here. 👀

    https://x.com/RyanShead/status/1851506534821564663

    ❤️🧡🤍💗💜 Aubrey
  • How much would a pint cost in a pub if the alcohol duty was reduced to zero?

    You can't charge people to drink at home what it costs to run a pub

    Unless you're a fucking fool
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,209

    Foxy said:

    Savanta snap poll
    41 27 good vs bad for the budget
    Big support for Minimum wage, NHS funding
    Neutral on NI
    Firmly against bus fare cap increase

    Initial verdict a relief for no 10 but no narrative changer yet

    This is what they will have been banking on.

    The NHS is a more tangible public priority than growth, but they can't l leave it too long.
    Getting waiting lists down to what they were in 2010 was a key promise and cannot be done overnight. If they fail to do that by the next election then they will lose tons of seats. Its a deal-breaker for their voters.
    Pagan2 and others will tell you that the NHS is a sponge and the extra money being spent on it will not alter the numbers treated or reduce waiting lists. But the experience from 1997 to 2010 says otherwise:

    image
    Sadly your graph doesn't show what you think it does. It just shows Labour are better at fiddling the figures. Try finding a similar graph to show waiting lists vs spending.
    If it was as easy as fiddling the figures, the Tories would've done the same. No, there has been a very real change in NHS performance since the Tories entered Downing Street. Most of us have had our own direct experience of the deterioration in the health service. I am very much looking forward to an improvement in the NHS now the Conservatives have gone, particularly as I am currently nursing a gluteal tendinopathy.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,881
    ydoethur said:

    The VAT on school fees will produce £9 billion over the forecast period.

    I have a bridge to sell if anybody believes this will come true.

    For £9 billion, or a bit less?
    9 billion would barely pay for the planning reports on a small footbridge across a 2 foot wide brook
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,411
    edited October 30

    MattW said:

    Should I just bend over while you get a huge payrise?

    If you are as fit as your ultra-walking adventures imply, could there be an acting opportunity starring in The Full Postie?

    I really can bend over

    I just checked; I can still, without warming up, bend over from standing, with my legs straight, and put my hands flat on the floor and my head between my knees

    Do you think I'll get the part?
    I couldn't judge that without a consensus from the PB Arts Community, and that would require a photo.

    (I note that the real Ben Dover seems to have been retired since 2014, so there's potential to subvert the power structures of the industry.)

    Alternatively you could try Oh What a Lovely War for the song "They Were Only Playing Leapfrog". *

    There are endless possibilities. We are probably due another "The Postman Always Rings Twice" sequel, though Lana Turner is no longer available.

    * https://youtu.be/bahJ1eVOELY?t=72
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,209
    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    WRT the budget, while like everyone else I can make individual criticisms, but over the big picture, what do her many critics think she should have done differently and how?

    I'm not at all sure I have heard or seen a radically 'alternative budget' covering the totality of tax, spend and borrow from anyone or anywhere; including from the Tories. Has anyone?

    I've had a go, albeit only in the broadest of terms. I said I broadly agreed with the tax rises but was appalled at the level of additional spending and, consequentially, borrowing. A reset should have put us on an even keel. Our borrowing has been out of control since Covid. It is actually quite scary that it is going higher.

    I would accept that we needed more money on defence and Ukraine. I would even accept that the NHS is currently a bottomless pit and that, until we find a better way, there is not much choice about throwing more money at it. But the priority should have been to find as many cuts as possible to offset these additional sums and, at the very least, keep the increase in spending to less than the increase in taxes.
    We had 14 years of cuts. There's precious little left to cut.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,258
    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    Extreme position.
    I visit a pub weekly because my father wants to go...its three odd hours of extreme tedium while paying 5 times as much for beer I actually don't want to drink and interacting with people I would rather never have to talk to ever again because they are tedious people and having to bite my tongue rather than telling them to fuck off for their idiocy
    Wait until I tell you about the idiots on this website I visit...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259
    edited October 30
    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    WRT the budget, while like everyone else I can make individual criticisms, but over the big picture, what do her many critics think she should have done differently and how?

    I'm not at all sure I have heard or seen a radically 'alternative budget' covering the totality of tax, spend and borrow from anyone or anywhere; including from the Tories. Has anyone?

    I've had a go, albeit only in the broadest of terms. I said I broadly agreed with the tax rises but was appalled at the level of additional spending and, consequentially, borrowing. A reset should have put us on an even keel. Our borrowing has been out of control since Covid. It is actually quite scary that it is going higher.

    I would accept that we needed more money on defence and Ukraine. I would even accept that the NHS is currently a bottomless pit and that, until we find a better way, there is not much choice about throwing more money at it. But the priority should have been to find as many cuts as possible to offset these additional sums and, at the very least, keep the increase in spending to less than the increase in taxes.
    Strangely only a month ago Starmer was saying we can't just keep throwing money at the NHS, we need to reform it first because doing so. Then they front loaded all of this massive increase in spending to first couple of years of the government.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    The VAT on school fees will produce £9 billion over the forecast period.

    I have a bridge to sell if anybody believes this will come true.

    The hard part is it probably *will* make a few quid over the next year or two.

    Because if you've had a kid in private school for 10 years, you're not going to pull them out for the final 2.

    But over time, fewer people will *start* their kids in private school, and over the next 5 - 10 years, that decline will feed into increased costs for the government and lower tax revenues.

    If I had kids, I would rather take the 20k * 13 years per child (260,000 per child) and invest that in three ways - 1, money so they receive a cash sum at 18 they can use to get on the property ladder, 2 - private tutors pre-GCSE and a level and 3 - buying a house in a better state school catchment area.

    Reeves is basing her figures on behaviours remaining the same, when in fact the numbers don't add up for a lot of middle class strivers. Better to follow the plan I've suggested above than to stick your kids in proper school to teach them the difference between u and non-u.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,881

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    WRT the budget, while like everyone else I can make individual criticisms, but over the big picture, what do her many critics think she should have done differently and how?

    I'm not at all sure I have heard or seen a radically 'alternative budget' covering the totality of tax, spend and borrow from anyone or anywhere; including from the Tories. Has anyone?

    I've had a go, albeit only in the broadest of terms. I said I broadly agreed with the tax rises but was appalled at the level of additional spending and, consequentially, borrowing. A reset should have put us on an even keel. Our borrowing has been out of control since Covid. It is actually quite scary that it is going higher.

    I would accept that we needed more money on defence and Ukraine. I would even accept that the NHS is currently a bottomless pit and that, until we find a better way, there is not much choice about throwing more money at it. But the priority should have been to find as many cuts as possible to offset these additional sums and, at the very least, keep the increase in spending to less than the increase in taxes.
    We had 14 years of cuts. There's precious little left to cut.
    They will be means testing assisted dying when they get that bill through possibly, theres a cut for you
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,957

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    WRT the budget, while like everyone else I can make individual criticisms, but over the big picture, what do her many critics think she should have done differently and how?

    I'm not at all sure I have heard or seen a radically 'alternative budget' covering the totality of tax, spend and borrow from anyone or anywhere; including from the Tories. Has anyone?

    I've had a go, albeit only in the broadest of terms. I said I broadly agreed with the tax rises but was appalled at the level of additional spending and, consequentially, borrowing. A reset should have put us on an even keel. Our borrowing has been out of control since Covid. It is actually quite scary that it is going higher.

    I would accept that we needed more money on defence and Ukraine. I would even accept that the NHS is currently a bottomless pit and that, until we find a better way, there is not much choice about throwing more money at it. But the priority should have been to find as many cuts as possible to offset these additional sums and, at the very least, keep the increase in spending to less than the increase in taxes.
    We had 14 years of cuts. There's precious little left to cut.
    Cuts? Government expenditure is the highest it has been since the 70s.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607

    So the tax take is set to rise to 38.2% GDP. Still lower than most of our Western European neighbours.

    Personally, I think once a society can feed, clothe, house, and keep itself warm, everything else should be spent on health, education and defence. Letting the populace spend their money on whatsoever they choose is a recipe for disaster. Much of it will be frittered away on tat from China that goes into landfill within 5 years.

    That might be a minority view.

    You wouldn't let me spend some money on tat from a plastic injection moulding machine in Nottingham? Not even one of these cute bois?
  • DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    WRT the budget, while like everyone else I can make individual criticisms, but over the big picture, what do her many critics think she should have done differently and how?

    I'm not at all sure I have heard or seen a radically 'alternative budget' covering the totality of tax, spend and borrow from anyone or anywhere; including from the Tories. Has anyone?

    I've had a go, albeit only in the broadest of terms. I said I broadly agreed with the tax rises but was appalled at the level of additional spending and, consequentially, borrowing. A reset should have put us on an even keel. Our borrowing has been out of control since Covid. It is actually quite scary that it is going higher.

    I would accept that we needed more money on defence and Ukraine. I would even accept that the NHS is currently a bottomless pit and that, until we find a better way, there is not much choice about throwing more money at it. But the priority should have been to find as many cuts as possible to offset these additional sums and, at the very least, keep the increase in spending to less than the increase in taxes.
    We had 14 years of cuts. There's precious little left to cut.
    There's plenty to cut, its just the shibboleths of the other side that haven't been touched yet.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,030
    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Pubs are nice, they’re one of the things we do well in Britain. Ask any European living here.

    Pubs are cesspits I would rather lick a sweaty americans armpit than go in one through choice
    Extreme position.
    I visit a pub weekly because my father wants to go...its three odd hours of extreme tedium while paying 5 times as much for beer I actually don't want to drink and interacting with people I would rather never have to talk to ever again because they are tedious people and having to bite my tongue rather than telling them to fuck off for their idiocy
    Wait until I tell you about the idiots on this website I visit...
    Stay off the Radiohead fan sites man...
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 806
    kyf_100 said:

    As CGT is up with immediate effect, the amount I would now save by leaving the UK for 5 years stands at £59638 per annum over 5 years. Which is equivalent to a salary of 85k a year. Previous two jobs were 70k and 90k respectively, so split the difference and I can approximately afford to leave the UK, do nothing for five years, and end up in the same place as if I stayed here and worked.

    The main reason for staying is that I'm still young-ish in my 40s and quite like work.

    The main reason for leaving is the country is on its uppers and things are hardly likely to get better from here. Better to cash out now and enjoy one's retirement from warmer climes.

    I'm less concerned about paying an extra 4% a year, more worried that the country is going to continue to get worse and my quality of life here will continue to decline.

    As I said in the previous thread, if I do remain in the UK i will significantly alter my behaviour, making fewer capital disposals so as to incur less tax. If I leave I retire.

    Decisions, decisions.

    My feeling is that the UK is in terminal decline and this budget is another notch on the death spiral. The Tories screwed the pooch, but squeezing the life out of the private sector to give to the inefficient public sector is a one way ticket back to the 70s. So why not buy a one way ticket out...

    Most of the 0% places are gonna seriously screw you over (far more than here) if you have certain recreational hobbies. Or accidentally annoy the local tyrants (far more than here). Just be aware of that.

    If I were moving out of the country I'd be going somewhere in Africa, indeed it's my medium term plan atm to be 50% in Zambia. This makes no sense on a tax level but as a final frontier, it's very exciting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,225
    ohnotnow said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @EWagmeister

    Reggaeton superstar Nicky Jam has withdrawn his endorsement of Trump, saying, "You respect Puerto Rico."

    Nicky Jam appeared onstage with Trump 1 month ago in a MAGA hat.

    https://x.com/EWagmeister/status/1851692206903742598

    Trump respects no one.
    Though he does admire his daughter, in a way.
    And yet Don Jr and Eric do all the embarrassing political effort in pale mimicry of their dad to less praise.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,845
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Should I just bend over while you get a huge payrise?

    If you are as fit as your ultra-walking adventures imply, could there be an acting opportunity starring in The Full Postie?

    I really can bend over

    I just checked; I can still, without warming up, bend over from standing, with my legs straight, and put my hands flat on the floor and my head between my knees

    Do you think I'll get the part?
    I couldn't judge that without a consensus from the PB Arts Community, and that would require a photo.

    (I note that the real Ben Dover seems to have been retired since 2014, so there's potential to subvert the power structures of the industry.)

    Alternatively you could try Oh What a Lovely War for the song "They Were Only Playing Leapfrog". *

    There are endless possibilities. We are probably due another "The Postman Always Rings Twice" sequel, though Lana Turner is no longer available.

    * https://youtu.be/bahJ1eVOELY?t=72
    I used to have a friend who worked in an 'adult entertainment' shop. They were always amazed that when re-stocking Ben Dover DVD's (yes) it would be Mister Dover who answered the phone to take the order.

    True British entrepreneurial graft. I'm not entirely sure he'd get a gong from either of our leading pro-business parties mind you.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,259
    edited October 30
    kyf_100 said:

    The VAT on school fees will produce £9 billion over the forecast period.

    I have a bridge to sell if anybody believes this will come true.

    The hard part is it probably *will* make a few quid over the next year or two.

    Because if you've had a kid in private school for 10 years, you're not going to pull them out for the final 2.

    But over time, fewer people will *start* their kids in private school, and over the next 5 - 10 years, that decline will feed into increased costs for the government and lower tax revenues.

    If I had kids, I would rather take the 20k * 13 years per child (260,000 per child) and invest that in three ways - 1, money so they receive a cash sum at 18 they can use to get on the property ladder, 2 - private tutors pre-GCSE and a level and 3 - buying a house in a better state school catchment area.

    Reeves is basing her figures on behaviours remaining the same, when in fact the numbers don't add up for a lot of middle class strivers. Better to follow the plan I've suggested above than to stick your kids in proper school to teach them the difference between u and non-u.
    Well there is also the issue that particularly the big posho schools might well be able to play the system to claim back a load of VAT, and they won't struggle to replace pupils with even more overseas students.

    It seems most likely the smaller less fancy ones are the going to be worst effected. Not got the resources or size to really offset things.
  • DavidL said:

    Ratters said:

    This is a pretty big story from the world of finance.

    Car dealerships in chaos as shock ruling leaves market at risk of collapse

    Lenders pause vehicle loans as forecourts face dramatic rethink of sales practices


    Britain’s biggest banks and lenders are scrambling to avoid a collapse in the car sales market after a shock court judgement prompted chaos at forecourts across the country.

    A ruling from the Court of Appeal on commissions paid to car salesmen has forced several lenders to pause loans, and dealerships to urgently revise their sales practices to avoid a paralysis in the market.

    Lloyds Bank, one of the UK’s largest motor financiers through its Black Horse arm, became the latest lender to revamp its practices by abolishing bonuses paid to car dealers.

    The bank has introduced a “no commission” contract, meaning no fees will be paid to dealerships.

    William Chalmers, Lloyds’s chief of finance, held an urgent call with investors last night to explain the situation, saying it wanted to stand by its customers and the UK economy to carry on lending.

    Car finance is the biggest source of funding used by drivers to buy new vehicles, with nine in every 10 cars bought by motorists relying on a loan, according to Autotrader.

    There are fears a loan famine would effectively freeze up the market – damaging the already under-fire sector.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/30/ministers-scramble-to-prevent-car-sale-market-collapsing/

    The Lloyds position seems eminently sensible. Continue to lend but don't pay commission.

    The dealerships can adjust their sales pricing strategy with an explicit fee paid up front by the buyer. Or spread over time separate to the lease if they so wish.

    Frankly I'm amazed so many people buy new cars on lease. You pay for the most expensive part of the depreciation of a car, plus a very significant interest rate.
    Not just a shock today with new cars. Pick-Up trucks are being reclassified as cars for tax purposes. Which will have a pretty brutal impact on rural communities who use them to haul farm and construction stuff and their kids to and from school.
    It is astonishing that car salesmen have been getting away with undisclosed commissions to now. IFAs had had disclosure provisions for a decade or more in respect of commissions.
    It's hardly a surprise. When you buy from a main dealer some of the "please take out x" begging is pretty blatant.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Farron out to bat for tenant farmers, says the removal of Agricultural relief will usher in a new 'clearances' by landowners. Calls it disgraceful.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607

    How much would a pint cost in a pub if the alcohol duty was reduced to zero?

    You can't charge people to drink at home what it costs to run a pub

    Unless you're a fucking fool

    Lots of people still go to the pub, even though it's a lot more expensive than drinking at home, so it isn't necessary to reverse that position. Just closing the gap would have an impact, and I believe that impact would be a beneficial one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,225
    Pagan2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    The VAT on school fees will produce £9 billion over the forecast period.

    I have a bridge to sell if anybody believes this will come true.

    For £9 billion, or a bit less?
    9 billion would barely pay for the planning reports on a small footbridge across a 2 foot wide brook
    Of course it would. But it wouldn't cover all the legal costs after it was judicially reviewed because a newt once lived in the same postcode.
  • DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    WRT the budget, while like everyone else I can make individual criticisms, but over the big picture, what do her many critics think she should have done differently and how?

    I'm not at all sure I have heard or seen a radically 'alternative budget' covering the totality of tax, spend and borrow from anyone or anywhere; including from the Tories. Has anyone?

    I've had a go, albeit only in the broadest of terms. I said I broadly agreed with the tax rises but was appalled at the level of additional spending and, consequentially, borrowing. A reset should have put us on an even keel. Our borrowing has been out of control since Covid. It is actually quite scary that it is going higher.

    I would accept that we needed more money on defence and Ukraine. I would even accept that the NHS is currently a bottomless pit and that, until we find a better way, there is not much choice about throwing more money at it. But the priority should have been to find as many cuts as possible to offset these additional sums and, at the very least, keep the increase in spending to less than the increase in taxes.
    Strangely only a month ago Starmer was saying we can't just keep throwing money at the NHS, we need to reform it first because doing so. Then they front loaded all of this massive increase in spending to first couple of years of the government.
    On the other hand, Starmer is staking a lot on massive technological changes in the NHS.

    Streeting seems to be planning these j be in tandem with organisational changes.
This discussion has been closed.