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Senatus Populusque – Previewing November’s other elections – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,203
    Ratters said:

    Trump's chance of winning electoral college:
    - 538: 53%
    - Nate Silver: 54%
    - Betfair: 65%

    So the models project a coin toss with a slight Trump bias, while the betting market make Trump almost twice as likely to win as Harris.

    It is a very significant divergence.

    Yes although I'm loathe to do it because it feels like jinx/double misery, I've got to lay Trump at those prices.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,666
    edited October 29
    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    “Prime Minister, why was Taylor Swift given a special police escort?”

    Hmmm

    Hmmmmm what? What do you think the issue is? Home Secretary and Mayor believe extra protection needed following Austrian terrorist issue. Police disagree. Home Secretary and Mayor get their way, possibly under pressure from Swift's team. Seems normal stuff.

    What new conspiracy are you trying to spread now?
    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    “Prime Minister, why was Taylor Swift given a special police escort?”

    Hmmm

    Hmmmmm what? What do you think the issue is? Home Secretary and Mayor believe extra protection needed following Austrian terrorist issue. Police disagree. Home Secretary and Mayor get their way, possibly under pressure from Swift's team. Seems normal stuff.

    What new conspiracy are you trying to spread now?
    How about… you don’t respond to me and I don’t respond to you. Since I can’t figure out how to mute you on here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited October 29

    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    I've been ready for that ever since my first trip to Scandinavia.
    Last year I had meetings in London followed by Denmark, basically everything is cashless in Denmark (calm down there Ana), I can't say there was a big noticeable difference in cost of a drink as the notifications came through on my phone in £'s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580

    rcs1000 said:

    TRAFALGAR GIVES TRUMP 3 POINT LEAD IN NORTH CAROLINA.

    I know that's of no importance whatsoever, but I just wanted to mention it.

    Is his methodology the tried and trusted technique of throwing half a dozen playing cards in the air and those that land face up give us the Trump lead?
    I didn't realise it was that scientific.
    I genuinely want people to go back to reading entrails. I'm sure it's less accurate, but massively so? And it is more of spectacle, though it would probably need to be a fake animal to avoid cruelty.
  • Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    ...

    TimS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Could it be true that Prime Minister Keir Starmer, much of the political class and the state blamed protestors for “misinformation” while deliberately withholding information? There are so many questions that need answering."

    Huge questions about Southport. How long were the police and CPS aware of this? Were they sitting on this information during the riots, protests and sentencing?"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1851288467847725277

    What bollocks from Goodwin. Irrespective of whether the lad had terrorist sympathies, that did not give Farage the right to plageurise Andrew Tate's fake news nonsense for political gain.

    Those morons who tried setting fire to Holiday Inns are not vindicated by this news,.

    Whether BigG.finally has his Starmer gotcha is another question. Maybe he has.
    The question is what do these agitators want? What would they have liked to happen? Because I doubt that anything reasonable the police could have said or done would have sated their appetite.

    Let’s been honest, given their and others’ messages during the riots. They would have liked the Police to name the murderer as a terrorist, to clearly state his race, to go easy on the rioters and those inciting violence online - perhaps just shrug it off as people blowing off steam. But that wouldn’t be enough. Nothing short of some sort of mass deportation would be enough, because what they want is - to echo some rhetoric that’s made its way on to this site in the last 24 hours - “not to see too many black or brown faces”. Yes, a poster actually wrote that last night, on here.

    That’s the game Goodwin is playing. It’s also the pool Jenrick is dipping his toes into, whether out of ideology or cynicism. PB recently suggests to me that there’s a market for it even amongst people with, to channel another of this evening’s topics, decent A Levels.

    A great final paragraph.
    Sadly yes. Bit gamey in places on here sometimes.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,149
    edited October 29

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Ah but you joined in March 24, and have been a little hostile to people that suggested you might actually be CHB under another name! Which was weird as we rather liked CHB (well I did at least)
  • algarkirk said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    A couple both working maximum (48) hours in FT employment on minimum wage (12.21) once the rise has taken effect will earn (gross) £61K. Which is great but also has interesting effects and pressures on the employment market. I think.
    That's good if they can both achieve a min wage job for 48 hours. On the good side they would be paying a lot of tax and Ni, and will probably have given up any in work benefits.

    I stand to be corrected, but I think I read that with the rise in NLW some will lose Universal credit and be worse off or will cut their hours accordingly

    I would appreciate those more familiar with the subject to comment
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    kinabalu said:

    AAA

    (old money)

    Only 3, disappointing.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,203

    Good news on the National Minimum Wage increase. Well done Rachel.

    Interested to see if the Tories criticise this. Kemi might I think, she plays by her own rules.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited October 29

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    Pubs are already going out of business at record rates. With a few exceptions in big cities, you only really survive via your food these days. I presume we will also be better higher funday taxes on booze.
  • Omnium said:

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Ah but you joined in March 24, and have been a little hostile to people that suggested you might actually be CHB under another name! Which was weird as we rather liked CHB (well I did at least)
    That's not how I recall it. I've even used the same sequence of characters.

    I think I've confirmed like half a dozen times that I am, or represent Mr Horse Battery.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903
    rkrkrk said:

    Ratters said:

    Trump's chance of winning electoral college:
    - 538: 53%
    - Nate Silver: 54%
    - Betfair: 65%

    So the models project a coin toss with a slight Trump bias, while the betting market make Trump almost twice as likely to win as Harris.

    It is a very significant divergence.

    Yes although I'm loathe to do it because it feels like jinx/double misery, I've got to lay Trump at those prices.
    New position or adding to an existing one?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,297
    The beneficiaries of the higher minimum wage will be private landlords who can probably whack on another 10% to the rent in areas of limited housing supply, to start to deal with all the new housing regulation in the private rented sector.
  • Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Starmer is there for the next 4 years plus unless he has a health issue or something entirely unexpected
  • Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    Pubs are already going out of business at record rates.
    This is not going to make any difference to that. But I do agree with you - and since the pub is my happy place, I find it very sad.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,699
    edited October 29

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    The moves tomorrow will put pubs out of business at no different a rate to supply and demand increasing wages by that amount.

    In fact more, as the minimum wage is national while supply and demand is local and more responsive.

    Yes things are good on my side thanks for asking, just been busy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    Don't worry, the Groucho Club is still only around £6.50.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,995
    edited October 29
    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    I remember when it was around a couple of quid a pint in the Woodville and you got a politics tutorial too.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661
    edited October 29

    Omnium said:

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Ah but you joined in March 24, and have been a little hostile to people that suggested you might actually be CHB under another name! Which was weird as we rather liked CHB (well I did at least)
    That's not how I recall it. I've even used the same sequence of characters.

    I think I've confirmed like half a dozen times that I am, or represent Mr Horse Battery.
    Well assuming you finally admit it, welcome back CHB! (I was simply a bit baffled some months ago to conflate you two, and then you got upset)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    Don't worry, the Groucho Club is still only around £6.50.
    The Hat and Tun does (shit) pints for a fiver.
  • MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    Pubs are already going out of business at record rates.
    This is not going to make any difference to that. But I do agree with you - and since the pub is my happy place, I find it very sad.
    I generally would support greater measures to keep pubs in business was but I agree, this on its own won’t make any measurable difference.
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Frankly I think people writing off SKS at this point are incredibly naïve. You could have taken these posts and transplanted them back to 2020/2021 when people were saying Johnson would be PM for a decade. I think only @Anabobazina and myself were saying otherwise.

    Of course I also thought Jezza would win in 2019 so...

    Ah but you joined in March 24, and have been a little hostile to people that suggested you might actually be CHB under another name! Which was weird as we rather liked CHB (well I did at least)
    That's not how I recall it. I've even used the same sequence of characters.

    I think I've confirmed like half a dozen times that I am, or represent Mr Horse Battery.
    Well assuming you finally admit it, welcome back CHB! (I was simply a bit baffled some months ago to conflate you two, and then you got upset)
    I already had...but sure, hello again.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    I remember when it was around a couple of quid a pint in the Woodville and you got a politics tutorial too.
    The Woody was £3.50 for a pint when I used to frequent it, and happily no politics lectures I could see. Lots of rugby lads though.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    Don't worry, the Groucho Club is still only around £6.50.
    I suspect they'll have to reduce it further for the annual membership. At that price it's a rip off.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,666

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    After tomorrow will it be cheaper to go and have a few pints and walk home, or drive and soda water…
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,995
    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Neither of my children frequent pubs. It's a lifestyle choice amongst twentysomethings. The piss trade is dead on its arse already. A milk tax on coffee sales would yield a better return.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,203
    kinabalu said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Ratters said:

    Trump's chance of winning electoral college:
    - 538: 53%
    - Nate Silver: 54%
    - Betfair: 65%

    So the models project a coin toss with a slight Trump bias, while the betting market make Trump almost twice as likely to win as Harris.

    It is a very significant divergence.

    Yes although I'm loathe to do it because it feels like jinx/double misery, I've got to lay Trump at those prices.
    New position or adding to an existing one?
    Adding to existing. I've been long Harris since Biden quit I think.
    Was massively underwater because as I kept incorrectly telling you, Biden wasn't going to stand down.
    Anyway as long as Michelle Obama doesn't somehow become President it won't be my worst result ever...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    There are other things we should be doing to help the industry rather than keeping wages low.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    You're saying no it's not true that I don't go as much as I used to? Are you looking through my window right now?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,471
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    Don't worry, the Groucho Club is still only around £6.50.
    £1.99 for all Guest ales at our Spoons this week (beer festival). £1 for a half, though. Cheeky blighters overcharging by 0.5p.
  • moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    After tomorrow will it be cheaper to go and have a few pints and walk home, or drive and soda water…
    To be honest in the summer, it's cheaper and nicer to go on sit on Parsons Green with a few tinnies and then sober up a bit and jump on a Lime bike
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,471
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    Don't worry, the Groucho Club is still only around £6.50.
    £1.99 for all Guest ales at our Spoons this week (beer festival). £1 for a half, though. Cheeky blighters overcharging by 0.5p.
    Better class of customer too.


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,412
    rcs1000 said:

    Selebian said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Sky

    Southport killer charged with terrorism

    The teenager accused of the stabbing murders of three young girls in Southport has been charged with producing the poison ricin and possessing a military study of an Al Qaeda training manual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c05zpdq0lzgo

    This isn't going to help all conspiracy theory stuff, as the police were very quick to say not terrorist related.
    "Not being treated as terrorism". Not quite the same. I suppose they could start saying "Not currently being treated as terrorism".
    Also:

    "However, police have not declared the events of 29 July a terrorist incident. "For a matter to be declared as a terrorist incident, motivation would need to be established," Chief Constable Kennedy said."

    So we're charging people just for having PDFs on their hard drives again. Lucky no-one went around checking hard drives for the Anarchist's Cookbook when I was a teenager.
    Producing ricin is not just possessing pdfs.
    True, but:

    "He also faces a terror charge of possession of information "likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing an act of terrorism, contrary to Section 58 of the Terrorism Act 2000"."

    Someone could be charged with that alone. They probably wouldn't be, but they could be - and that's not right.
    A chemistry degree would appear to fall under that!
    One of my colleagues used to be in possession of mg scale amounts of a drug CC1065 that would kill hundreds in the right environment and be almost undetectable (binds to DNA causing multi-organ failure a few months after administration). The way he talks about what terrorists ought to do is fascinating/scary at the same time.
    To someone who has done chemistry, the world is full of "Put this, this and this in a bucket and you get...."
    When I was doing my A-Level chemistry I was paired up with this Chinese kid. Very smart, but had only just arrived in the UK and his English wasn't very good and had shall we say a very lax approach to health and safety....using the fume cupboard was seen as unnecessary hassle, as was bothering to measure things...150ml...300ml, same thing...i just double everything else...
    When I was a teenager, you could get everything mail order. I still remember the thrill of getting the 100% Sulphuric acid. In those days the use of polystyrene foam round a bottle in a parcel was a bit exotic. Glass bottle of course.....

    The 100% Nitric was fun as well.

    My brother (slightly older) was a spoil sport and drew the line at Hydrofluoric......

    Mind you, the bit where we teaching ourselves how to silver glass using silver nitrate... and the solution turned black.....
    In my day the students who knew what they were doing were allowed to brew up all kinds of things in the back of the chemistry lab at school.

    The usual amusement was NI3 which was mostly used to eat shoe soles one crackle at a time but other more exciting compounds may have been attempted.

    It was kind of brought to a halt when some fool didn't cool a reaction vessel enough and the main classroom had to be cleared rather quickly.

    I don't think anyone deliberately made any fulminates though!

    Most of those committing such criminal acts went on to Oxbridge, of course.

    [That's me on a list now]

    One of the sixth formers at my school (who ended up at Oxford) used to make amphetamines in the school chemistry lab.

    This was discovered just before Easter in his upper sixth, and the school was faced with a choice...

    As he was the only kid with an Oxbridge offer, they did exactly what you'd expect, and completely swept it under the carpet.
    Idiots - one of the teachers should have adopted a pseudonym and got into partnership with the student to take over the market with high quality product....
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    There are other things we should be doing to help the industry rather than keeping wages low.
    Indeed.

    But it's amusing how some people are perfectly OK with wages going up as long as it's the state determining that everyone's wages go up, with no regards to local market conditions.

    While being utterly horrified at supply and demand and local market conditions meaning that wages might locally go up above minimum wage if that is what is required.

    The minimum wage should be a floor, not a ceiling, to wages.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    If more people start drinking at home, there is a risk that the pub garden smoking ban will be evaded. The government will have to tighten the rules, starting with smoking in private gardens. Detetctor vans could be used for enforcement.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    Labour don't give a fuck.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    There are other things we should be doing to help the industry rather than keeping wages low.
    Drink more beer?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903
    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Ratters said:

    Trump's chance of winning electoral college:
    - 538: 53%
    - Nate Silver: 54%
    - Betfair: 65%

    So the models project a coin toss with a slight Trump bias, while the betting market make Trump almost twice as likely to win as Harris.

    It is a very significant divergence.

    Yes although I'm loathe to do it because it feels like jinx/double misery, I've got to lay Trump at those prices.
    New position or adding to an existing one?
    Adding to existing. I've been long Harris since Biden quit I think.
    Was massively underwater because as I kept incorrectly telling you, Biden wasn't going to stand down.
    Anyway as long as Michelle Obama doesn't somehow become President it won't be my worst result ever...
    🤭 - I get £75 if it's Michelle and I hereby pledge it to you if it happens.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    edited October 29
    Rachel Reeves replaces portrait of Nigel Lawson with community party founder.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/29/rachel-reeves-replaces-portrait-nigel-lawson-communist-uk/
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,141
    The pollings all over the place . In Arizona a shock poll by Data Orbital gives Trump an 8 point lead , CNN have Harris in the lead by 1 point .

    Earlier Susquehanna give Harris a 5 point lead in Michigan as opposed to Emerson who give Trump a 1 point lead .

    And not poll related Trump just called his hate rally a love-fest !
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678
    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    There are other things we should be doing to help the industry rather than keeping wages low.
    Drink more beer?
    I certainly do my best to help on that front!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    Rachel Reevs replaces portrait of Nigel Lawson with community party founder.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/29/rachel-reeves-replaces-portrait-nigel-lawson-communist-uk/

    Sad, Woke, Left-wing shit by juveniles playing at government.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    maxh said:

    tlg86 said:

    maxh said:

    tlg86 said:

    maaarsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    Sky

    Southport killer charged with terrorism

    The teenager accused of the stabbing murders of three young girls in Southport has been charged with producing the poison ricin and possessing a military study of an Al Qaeda training manual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c05zpdq0lzgo

    This isn't going to help all conspiracy theory stuff, as the police were very quick to say not terrorist related and the online stuff which got people out on the streets was all about a cover up of this being a terrorist attack and strange story of the soldier stabbing (which we still don't really know much about).
    Wasn't the crux of the 'fake news' story that he was known to the security services?
    The crux was that he was an immigrant, which he wasn't, IIRC.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/security-services-may-look-at-russia-and-farage-in-riots-probe_uk_66ba2494e4b0eabd2393a9a1

    Farage falsely claimed the police were not telling the whole truth around the tragedies in Southport shortly after the stabbings first happened, and suggested the suspect was already known to the security services.
    I can understand why the police didn’t want to release this pre whatever that Tommy Robinson march was, but the perception I.e what some groups will do with this won’t help.
    So they’ve put “Tommy” in prison, and are now saying that this attack was terrorism after all?

    Hope the police and Home Office are braced for the response, let’s all hope and pray it doesn’t get as ugly as it did earlier in the summer.
    It's cold and dark now, safe time to admit the hush up.
    The weather is set fair for the next week. Plenty of fireworks around too. (Not that I want it to kick off - I don't think it will - but if that was the thinking behind the lies, then the police deserve everything they get)
    I find some of the language and sentiments expressed by certain posters on here pretty unpleasant at the moment.

    Are you really saying that individual police officers deserve to be attacked with fireworks? Pretty shameful imo.
    Nope, I'm saying the powers that be having to ask their officers to deal with shit deserve everything they get. (If I were rank and file, I'd refuse to go out there after this).
    That isn't how your previous post reads, to me at least.
    "Not that I want it to kick off"

    Obviously, police don't have much of choice, so I will retract any suggestion that they deserve it. But this is a cover up. And it is an absolute fucking disgrace.
    What specifically had been covered up?
    The discovery of Ricin - alongside which Guido is claiming he knew on Friday and was ordered not to publish...
    Most likely Guido Getting hold of it has forced them to go public today, otherwise it would still be under wraps.

    But the argument that will keep coming at them, why were you keeping it under wraps even this long? It seems like a long time to journalists.

    If the answer to that question is, working on the assumption it wouldn’t be a fair trial, if public and jury knew about this, as public and jury would think it a terror related incident which might not be true or fair, it would point to keeping this news hushed up from public and jury for a very long time, a year or more till post trial?

    I do get the argument, motive has not been proved by these facts - does this mean I should have gone to Cambridge, become a lawyer, and then a back bench Tory MP who’d become known as Handsy Jadey for my drunken antics in the bars? 🫣 On this occasion by all means tell me I’m wrong in all this supposition.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,833

    Rachel Reevs replaces portrait of Nigel Lawson with community party founder.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/29/rachel-reeves-replaces-portrait-nigel-lawson-communist-uk/

    Sad, Woke, Left-wing shit by juveniles playing at government.
    Omg, you're in a foul mood tonight
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    You're saying no it's not true that I don't go as much as I used to? Are you looking through my window right now?
    I don't mean you, I mean among the public and that's going to lead to closures which you've said won't happen due to the minimum wage rise.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,161

    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    I've been ready for that ever since my first trip to Scandinavia.
    Last year I had meetings in London followed by Denmark, basically everything is cashless in Denmark (calm down there Ana), I can't say there was a big noticeable difference in cost of a drink as the notifications came through on my phone in £'s.
    When I were a lad I'd go to the pub with 1/6 for a pint of bitter. One penny short and it would have to be a pint of mild. Tuppence short and it would be half of lager and a bag of crisps. How are my grandchildren ever going to learn the value of money?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,995

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    Labour don't give a fuck.
    Fewer drunks clogging up the arteries of the NHS. It's great lateral thinking.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    There are other things we should be doing to help the industry rather than keeping wages low.
    Indeed.

    But it's amusing how some people are perfectly OK with wages going up as long as it's the state determining that everyone's wages go up, with no regards to local market conditions.

    While being utterly horrified at supply and demand and local market conditions meaning that wages might locally go up above minimum wage if that is what is required.

    The minimum wage should be a floor, not a ceiling, to wages.
    Without productivity improvements minimum wage does act as a ceiling as well as a floor.

    It does mean that pubs will need to careful manage the hours they open but the biggest issue for most won't be the minimum wage it will be the fact their business rates (which have been discounted since 2021) will be reverting back to their historic levels if the 75% relief that ends in March isn't extended.
  • MaxPB said:

    I don't mean you, I mean among the public and that's going to lead to closures which you've said won't happen due to the minimum wage rise.

    Sure but my question is, why are you looking through my window?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Look on the brights side, if Starmer keeps going on loi
    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    Labour don't give a fuck.
    Look on the bright side, if Starmer keeps going on like this he'll destroy Labour for ever.

    Result.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    Pubs are already going out of business at record rates.
    This is not going to make any difference to that. But I do agree with you - and since the pub is my happy place, I find it very sad.
    I love them too. Have since I was 17

    "There is a pub in Donny Market Square,
    It's called the Woolpack Arms ..."
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    You're saying no it's not true that I don't go as much as I used to? Are you looking through my window right now?
    I don't mean you, I mean among the public and that's going to lead to closures which you've said won't happen due to the minimum wage rise.
    If business rate relief isn't retained - it won't be the minimum wage that closes those pubs their new business rates bill will be the culprit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    rcs1000 said:

    KnightOut said:

    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    After yesterday's tweets about 'engineer' Kemi's sub-par academic achievements (D in A Level maths), I've just spotted Keir only got BBC in his A levels.

    Why are we ruled by idiots, and how was this not spotted when muppets were going on about his razor-sharp intellect - the clues of his inability to think on his feet were there all along.

    In the old days, top grades were harder to get and not many people cared anyway.
    She took her A levels in 1997 not 1970 - if you can only get a D in A level maths I don't want to rely on anything you've engineered.

    Even when Keir was doing it 10% got As - out of the whole country we couldn't be bothered to pick someone in the top decile mentally - admittedly America has 2 similar choices, but it doesn't excuse us.
    Not everyone excels in their A Levels. A pretty daft way to judge someone with decades of work experience.

    Said it before, I know, but I got an A in my English Lit. A level without properly reading any of the set books.

    This destroyed whatever residual faith I may have had in teachers and teaching.

    I'd estimate ~98% of everything I ever learned was picked up outside the so-called Education System.
    I think it's easier to get an A in English Lit if you don't read the set books, because then you've memorized the correct criticism without having it polluted by any actual knowledge of the text.
    Eng Lit is a dry, scholastic, subject, which bears no relation to the discussions people have about interesting books.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,833

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    Labour don't give a fuck.
    Fewer drunks clogging up the arteries of the NHS. It's great lateral thinking.
    I'd go further, I'd surcharge alcohol industries for the drunks who end up clogging A and E.
    We have a pub at the end of our street and we have th regular Friday/Saturday procession of drunkards from 10pm till gone midnight.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,044
    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    A bottle of my favourite tipple (Tio Pepe) lasts me around 20 years. Still some way to go, so no idea how much a bottle costs today.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,297
    TimS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Could it be true that Prime Minister Keir Starmer, much of the political class and the state blamed protestors for “misinformation” while deliberately withholding information? There are so many questions that need answering."

    Huge questions about Southport. How long were the police and CPS aware of this? Were they sitting on this information during the riots, protests and sentencing?"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1851288467847725277

    What bollocks from Goodwin. Irrespective of whether the lad had terrorist sympathies, that did not give Farage the right to plageurise Andrew Tate's fake news nonsense for political gain.

    Those morons who tried setting fire to Holiday Inns are not vindicated by this news,.

    Whether BigG.finally has his Starmer gotcha is another question. Maybe he has.
    The question is what do these agitators want? What would they have liked to happen? Because I doubt that anything reasonable the police could have said or done would have sated their appetite.

    Let’s been honest, given their and others’ messages during the riots. They would have liked the Police to name the murderer as a terrorist, to clearly state his race, to go easy on the rioters and those inciting violence online - perhaps just shrug it off as people blowing off steam. But that wouldn’t be enough. Nothing short of some sort of mass deportation would be enough, because what they want is - to echo some rhetoric that’s made its way on to this site in the last 24 hours - “not to see too many black or brown faces”. Yes, a poster actually wrote that last night, on here.

    That’s the game Goodwin is playing. It’s also the pool Jenrick is dipping his toes into, whether out of ideology or cynicism. PB recently suggests to me that there’s a market for it even amongst people with, to channel another of this evening’s topics, decent A Levels.

    I think Goodwin is just acting from a sense of belief in what he is saying - he really believes that we need to leave the ECHR and the other parts of his agenda. However since quitting his academic role he is becoming more of a political actor himself and so has to start pleasing the crowd, and inevitably the quality of his output is going downhill.

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,699
    edited October 29
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    There are other things we should be doing to help the industry rather than keeping wages low.
    Indeed.

    But it's amusing how some people are perfectly OK with wages going up as long as it's the state determining that everyone's wages go up, with no regards to local market conditions.

    While being utterly horrified at supply and demand and local market conditions meaning that wages might locally go up above minimum wage if that is what is required.

    The minimum wage should be a floor, not a ceiling, to wages.
    Without productivity improvements minimum wage does act as a ceiling as well as a floor.

    It does mean that pubs will need to careful manage the hours they open but the biggest issue for most won't be the minimum wage it will be the fact their business rates (which have been discounted since 2021) will be reverting back to their historic levels if the 75% relief that ends in March isn't extended.
    In a free market wage rises can lead to productivity rises.

    If market conditions demand above minimum wage pay rates to fill vacancies but some firms can't afford the wage rise so go out of business, leading to consolidation of the market and customers from those firms now frequenting the surviving firms, then the surviving firms staff both have higher pay and are more productive (serving more customers per hour).

    A rise led by diktat rather than market forces doesn't have the same productivity boost.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661
    AnneJGP said:

    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    A bottle of my favourite tipple (Tio Pepe) lasts me around 20 years. Still some way to go, so no idea how much a bottle costs today.
    Well that's a glass entirely empty post if I ever saw one!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    rcs1000 said:

    Selebian said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Sky

    Southport killer charged with terrorism

    The teenager accused of the stabbing murders of three young girls in Southport has been charged with producing the poison ricin and possessing a military study of an Al Qaeda training manual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c05zpdq0lzgo

    This isn't going to help all conspiracy theory stuff, as the police were very quick to say not terrorist related.
    "Not being treated as terrorism". Not quite the same. I suppose they could start saying "Not currently being treated as terrorism".
    Also:

    "However, police have not declared the events of 29 July a terrorist incident. "For a matter to be declared as a terrorist incident, motivation would need to be established," Chief Constable Kennedy said."

    So we're charging people just for having PDFs on their hard drives again. Lucky no-one went around checking hard drives for the Anarchist's Cookbook when I was a teenager.
    Producing ricin is not just possessing pdfs.
    True, but:

    "He also faces a terror charge of possession of information "likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing an act of terrorism, contrary to Section 58 of the Terrorism Act 2000"."

    Someone could be charged with that alone. They probably wouldn't be, but they could be - and that's not right.
    A chemistry degree would appear to fall under that!
    One of my colleagues used to be in possession of mg scale amounts of a drug CC1065 that would kill hundreds in the right environment and be almost undetectable (binds to DNA causing multi-organ failure a few months after administration). The way he talks about what terrorists ought to do is fascinating/scary at the same time.
    To someone who has done chemistry, the world is full of "Put this, this and this in a bucket and you get...."
    When I was doing my A-Level chemistry I was paired up with this Chinese kid. Very smart, but had only just arrived in the UK and his English wasn't very good and had shall we say a very lax approach to health and safety....using the fume cupboard was seen as unnecessary hassle, as was bothering to measure things...150ml...300ml, same thing...i just double everything else...
    When I was a teenager, you could get everything mail order. I still remember the thrill of getting the 100% Sulphuric acid. In those days the use of polystyrene foam round a bottle in a parcel was a bit exotic. Glass bottle of course.....

    The 100% Nitric was fun as well.

    My brother (slightly older) was a spoil sport and drew the line at Hydrofluoric......

    Mind you, the bit where we teaching ourselves how to silver glass using silver nitrate... and the solution turned black.....
    In my day the students who knew what they were doing were allowed to brew up all kinds of things in the back of the chemistry lab at school.

    The usual amusement was NI3 which was mostly used to eat shoe soles one crackle at a time but other more exciting compounds may have been attempted.

    It was kind of brought to a halt when some fool didn't cool a reaction vessel enough and the main classroom had to be cleared rather quickly.

    I don't think anyone deliberately made any fulminates though!

    Most of those committing such criminal acts went on to Oxbridge, of course.

    [That's me on a list now]

    One of the sixth formers at my school (who ended up at Oxford) used to make amphetamines in the school chemistry lab.

    This was discovered just before Easter in his upper sixth, and the school was faced with a choice...

    As he was the only kid with an Oxbridge offer, they did exactly what you'd expect, and completely swept it under the carpet.
    Idiots - one of the teachers should have adopted a pseudonym and got into partnership with the student to take over the market with high quality product....
    “I am the one who comes knocking.”
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    Labour don't give a fuck.
    Fewer drunks clogging up the arteries of the NHS. It's great lateral thinking.
    I'd go further, I'd surcharge alcohol industries for the drunks who end up clogging A and E.
    We have a pub at the end of our street and we have th regular Friday/Saturday procession of drunkards from 10pm till gone midnight.
    Do you live in Frodsham ?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,833

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    Labour don't give a fuck.
    Fewer drunks clogging up the arteries of the NHS. It's great lateral thinking.
    I'd go further, I'd surcharge alcohol industries for the drunks who end up clogging A and E.
    We have a pub at the end of our street and we have th regular Friday/Saturday procession of drunkards from 10pm till gone midnight.
    Do you live in Frodsham ?
    Hehe
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,041
    darkage said:

    The beneficiaries of the higher minimum wage will be private landlords who can probably whack on another 10% to the rent in areas of limited housing supply, to start to deal with all the new housing regulation in the private rented sector.

    So many of our society's problems arise from housing scarcity forcing costs to an absurdly high proportion of people's salaries.

    A few ideas:

    1. Huge liberalisation in planning approval process. Pre-approve large areas for construction to reduce the scarcity and value of planning permission being granted.

    2. Tax breaks to incentivise the building of homes. Aim to bring in new competition to the area.

    3. Tax property ownership properly, and potentially land value as well. That means a much higher annual tax as a % property value, combined with scrapping stamp duty that discourages mobility and downsizing.

    We can't have a productive economy if so much of our income generated is paid away to rent seekers. People with enough money to be a landlord should be investing in companies, not in homes.

    I exclude build to rent in the above categorisation as that's actually helping things.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    kinabalu said:

    AAA

    (old money)

    Only 3, disappointing.
    My 4th wasn't an A. So it's cancelled.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,041
    I'm not sure if it's just where I live and work, but there's still absolutely loads of pubs everywhere.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Omnium said:

    Rachel Reevs replaces portrait of Nigel Lawson with community party founder.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/29/rachel-reeves-replaces-portrait-nigel-lawson-communist-uk/

    Sad, Woke, Left-wing shit by juveniles playing at government.
    Come along. Would you really want a snap of Nigel Lawson on your wall? I wouldn't even want a snap of Nigella Lawson, and she's considerably easier on the eye than her father.
    Ellen Wilkinson (who I believe the portrait is of), is a fascinating character who, as an early female MP and cabinet minister, achieved a heck of a lot. On that basis, she's a reasonable person for a female chancellor to have on her wall.

    Despite her also being a communist... ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited October 29
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Could it be true that Prime Minister Keir Starmer, much of the political class and the state blamed protestors for “misinformation” while deliberately withholding information? There are so many questions that need answering."

    Huge questions about Southport. How long were the police and CPS aware of this? Were they sitting on this information during the riots, protests and sentencing?"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1851288467847725277

    Farage also on the bandwagon

    'The Southport attacker has now been charged with Terrorism offences. Perhaps I was right all along.'
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1851297898610507807

    Plus Jenrick

    'The public had a right to know the truth straight away.

    I am seriously concerned that facts may have been withheld from the public.

    Keir Starmer must urgently explain what he knew about the Southport attack and when he learned it.'
    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1851294780304863449
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903
    AnneJGP said:

    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    A bottle of my favourite tipple (Tio Pepe) lasts me around 20 years. Still some way to go, so no idea how much a bottle costs today.
    Same as Harry Palmer.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,666
    Ratters said:

    I'm not sure if it's just where I live and work, but there's still absolutely loads of pubs everywhere.

    There’s almost none around me. They’re mostly restaurants masquerading as pubs.
  • MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    There are other things we should be doing to help the industry rather than keeping wages low.
    Indeed.

    But it's amusing how some people are perfectly OK with wages going up as long as it's the state determining that everyone's wages go up, with no regards to local market conditions.

    While being utterly horrified at supply and demand and local market conditions meaning that wages might locally go up above minimum wage if that is what is required.

    The minimum wage should be a floor, not a ceiling, to wages.
    Without productivity improvements minimum wage does act as a ceiling as well as a floor.

    It does mean that pubs will need to careful manage the hours they open but the biggest issue for most won't be the minimum wage it will be the fact their business rates (which have been discounted since 2021) will be reverting back to their historic levels if the 75% relief that ends in March isn't extended.
    In a free market wage rises can lead to productivity rises.

    If market conditions demand above minimum wage pay rates to fill vacancies but some firms can't afford the wage rise so go out of business, leading to consolidation of the market and customers from those firms now frequenting the surviving firms, then the surviving firms staff both have higher pay and are more productive (serving more customers per hour).

    A rise led by diktat rather than market forces doesn't have the same productivity boost.
    I think at current rates it may in fact have the opposite effect as wage growth elsewhere in a business are sacrificed to pay for the minimum wage rises. So what ends up happening is highly productive people either leave or become less motivated/productive to retain people on lower wages. What worries me is that Labour are simultaneously increasing business costs in wages, NI and supposedly NI on pension contributions as well as small business rates relief being on the chopping block. It's going to lead to a lot of upheaval if they do all four of those. Lots won't survive and unemployment will go up, probably by a fair amount.
    Indeed, if you want higher wages and thriving firms and employment then NI is the last tax that should be raised, it's literally discouraging it.

    We should be seeking to abolish NI instead. Currently making an income from rent seeking is not subject to NI while wages are, and that discrepancy is only going to get worse if the proposed NI rise goes ahead.

    Make unearned incomes as taxed as earned ones are, both forms of NI rather than neither of them, and suddenly the market would look rather different.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    RobD said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@RobertJenrick

    The public had a right to know the truth straight away.
    I am seriously concerned that facts may have been withheld from the public.
    Keir Starmer must urgently explain what he knew about the Southport attack and when he learned it."

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1851294780304863449

    Anyone who believes this is an idiot. The truth is not known straight away. It is good that the police take a bit of time and are cautious nowadays. Otherwise you get stuff like Hillsborough.
    I don't think Jenrick cares about that sort of thing. He's trying to out-tweet Farage.
    Only a few more days until he's consigned to the dustbin of history... hopefully.
    And if he wins, out comes a lettuce I suspect. Or maybe as it’s winter a cabbage.

    If Bobby J was a vegetable, what sort of vegetable would he be?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903
    edited October 29
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Could it be true that Prime Minister Keir Starmer, much of the political class and the state blamed protestors for “misinformation” while deliberately withholding information? There are so many questions that need answering."

    Huge questions about Southport. How long were the police and CPS aware of this? Were they sitting on this information during the riots, protests and sentencing?"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1851288467847725277

    Farage also on the bandwagon

    'The Southport attacker has now been charged with Terrorism offences. Perhaps I was right all along.'
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1851297898610507807
    Grubby little man.

    (Farage, I mean, H, not you. You're a gem compared to these national populist right horrors)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661

    Omnium said:

    Rachel Reevs replaces portrait of Nigel Lawson with community party founder.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/29/rachel-reeves-replaces-portrait-nigel-lawson-communist-uk/

    Sad, Woke, Left-wing shit by juveniles playing at government.
    Come along. Would you really want a snap of Nigel Lawson on your wall? I wouldn't even want a snap of Nigella Lawson, and she's considerably easier on the eye than her father.
    Ellen Wilkinson (who I believe the portrait is of), is a fascinating character who, as an early female MP and cabinet minister, achieved a heck of a lot. On that basis, she's a reasonable person for a female chancellor to have on her wall.

    Despite her also being a communist... ;)
    There probably are good communists too. (And anyway the name Ellen Wilkinson rings a big bell somewhere which I can't immediately identify from a web search)
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,843
    The advent of the £9 pint won’t help boost the birth rate as we were discussing yesterday. Wrong decision chancellor - get young people drunk in close proximity to each other, and we’ll get more babies.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 402
    Ratters said:

    darkage said:

    The beneficiaries of the higher minimum wage will be private landlords who can probably whack on another 10% to the rent in areas of limited housing supply, to start to deal with all the new housing regulation in the private rented sector.

    So many of our society's problems arise from housing scarcity forcing costs to an absurdly high proportion of people's salaries.

    A few ideas:

    1. Huge liberalisation in planning approval process. Pre-approve large areas for construction to reduce the scarcity and value of planning permission being granted.

    2. Tax breaks to incentivise the building of homes. Aim to bring in new competition to the area.

    3. Tax property ownership properly, and potentially land value as well. That means a much higher annual tax as a % property value, combined with scrapping stamp duty that discourages mobility and downsizing.

    We can't have a productive economy if so much of our income generated is paid away to rent seekers. People with enough money to be a landlord should be investing in companies, not in homes.

    I exclude build to rent in the above categorisation as that's actually helping things.
    The only entity that is going to build affordable housing is the state either directly or through housing associations.
    There could also be a shake-up of property taxes to improve liquidity in the housing market, the disincentives to downsize don't help, unlikely to happen though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    nico679 said:

    The pollings all over the place . In Arizona a shock poll by Data Orbital gives Trump an 8 point lead , CNN have Harris in the lead by 1 point .

    Earlier Susquehanna give Harris a 5 point lead in Michigan as opposed to Emerson who give Trump a 1 point lead .

    And not poll related Trump just called his hate rally a love-fest !

    Data Orbital called Arizona pretty well in 2020.

    That said, CNN -which was also broadly right in 2020- came out yesterday with a Harris +1 in AZ.

    So you pays your money. Right now, the mood music suggests that Trump is ahead in AZ, NV, GA and NC... but that the rust belt is much tighter.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I just hope everyone's ready for the £9 pint.

    Don't worry, the Groucho Club is still only around £6.50.
    Start at under 2 quid in Spoon's, in God's country at least
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,678
    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    “Prime Minister, why was Taylor Swift given a special police escort?”

    Hmmm

    Hmmmmm what? What do you think the issue is? Home Secretary and Mayor believe extra protection needed following Austrian terrorist issue. Police disagree. Home Secretary and Mayor get their way, possibly under pressure from Swift's team. Seems normal stuff.

    What new conspiracy are you trying to spread now?
    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    “Prime Minister, why was Taylor Swift given a special police escort?”

    Hmmm

    Hmmmmm what? What do you think the issue is? Home Secretary and Mayor believe extra protection needed following Austrian terrorist issue. Police disagree. Home Secretary and Mayor get their way, possibly under pressure from Swift's team. Seems normal stuff.

    What new conspiracy are you trying to spread now?
    How about… you don’t respond to me and I don’t respond to you. Since I can’t figure out how to mute you on here.
    Nope. Each time you spout or link to conpiracies I am going to out you. You have a track record of doing so, some of it appalling. When you linked to QAnon here and then later to an appalling racist anti Semite you deserved it and I'm not going to let you off the hook.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,640
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Could it be true that Prime Minister Keir Starmer, much of the political class and the state blamed protestors for “misinformation” while deliberately withholding information? There are so many questions that need answering."

    Huge questions about Southport. How long were the police and CPS aware of this? Were they sitting on this information during the riots, protests and sentencing?"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1851288467847725277

    People who love racist rioters are trying to come up with reasons why racist rioters being wrong about the attacker's name and immigration status are somehow now right. It is depressing.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,843
    moonshine said:

    Ratters said:

    I'm not sure if it's just where I live and work, but there's still absolutely loads of pubs everywhere.

    There’s almost none around me. They’re mostly restaurants masquerading as pubs.
    I’m usually one of a small group trying to persuade them to actually stay open until closing time, after too many other groups leave early (make your own jokes about the effect of my presence).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,001

    Omnium said:

    Rachel Reevs replaces portrait of Nigel Lawson with community party founder.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/29/rachel-reeves-replaces-portrait-nigel-lawson-communist-uk/

    Sad, Woke, Left-wing shit by juveniles playing at government.
    Come along. Would you really want a snap of Nigel Lawson on your wall? I wouldn't even want a snap of Nigella Lawson, and she's considerably easier on the eye than her father.
    Ellen Wilkinson (who I believe the portrait is of), is a fascinating character who, as an early female MP and cabinet minister, achieved a heck of a lot. On that basis, she's a reasonable person for a female chancellor to have on her wall.

    Despite her also being a communist... ;)
    Served in Churchill's wartime government as well.

    Allowing right wingers to make themselves look silly by criticising her is just a bonus.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    darkage said:

    TimS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Could it be true that Prime Minister Keir Starmer, much of the political class and the state blamed protestors for “misinformation” while deliberately withholding information? There are so many questions that need answering."

    Huge questions about Southport. How long were the police and CPS aware of this? Were they sitting on this information during the riots, protests and sentencing?"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1851288467847725277

    What bollocks from Goodwin. Irrespective of whether the lad had terrorist sympathies, that did not give Farage the right to plageurise Andrew Tate's fake news nonsense for political gain.

    Those morons who tried setting fire to Holiday Inns are not vindicated by this news,.

    Whether BigG.finally has his Starmer gotcha is another question. Maybe he has.
    The question is what do these agitators want? What would they have liked to happen? Because I doubt that anything reasonable the police could have said or done would have sated their appetite.

    Let’s been honest, given their and others’ messages during the riots. They would have liked the Police to name the murderer as a terrorist, to clearly state his race, to go easy on the rioters and those inciting violence online - perhaps just shrug it off as people blowing off steam. But that wouldn’t be enough. Nothing short of some sort of mass deportation would be enough, because what they want is - to echo some rhetoric that’s made its way on to this site in the last 24 hours - “not to see too many black or brown faces”. Yes, a poster actually wrote that last night, on here.

    That’s the game Goodwin is playing. It’s also the pool Jenrick is dipping his toes into, whether out of ideology or cynicism. PB recently suggests to me that there’s a market for it even amongst people with, to channel another of this evening’s topics, decent A Levels.

    I think Goodwin is just acting from a sense of belief in what he is saying - he really believes that we need to leave the ECHR and the other parts of his agenda. However since quitting his academic role he is becoming more of a political actor himself and so has to start pleasing the crowd, and inevitably the quality of his output is going downhill.

    Tale as old as time. Minor fame destroys.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,995
    ...

    Rachel Reeves replaces portrait of Nigel Lawson with community party founder.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/29/rachel-reeves-replaces-portrait-nigel-lawson-communist-uk/

    You and the Telegraph have tapped into a rich seam over these portraits. I am not sure Nigel Lawson is the slam dunk picture removal gotcha it might first appear.
  • Dopermean said:

    Ratters said:

    darkage said:

    The beneficiaries of the higher minimum wage will be private landlords who can probably whack on another 10% to the rent in areas of limited housing supply, to start to deal with all the new housing regulation in the private rented sector.

    So many of our society's problems arise from housing scarcity forcing costs to an absurdly high proportion of people's salaries.

    A few ideas:

    1. Huge liberalisation in planning approval process. Pre-approve large areas for construction to reduce the scarcity and value of planning permission being granted.

    2. Tax breaks to incentivise the building of homes. Aim to bring in new competition to the area.

    3. Tax property ownership properly, and potentially land value as well. That means a much higher annual tax as a % property value, combined with scrapping stamp duty that discourages mobility and downsizing.

    We can't have a productive economy if so much of our income generated is paid away to rent seekers. People with enough money to be a landlord should be investing in companies, not in homes.

    I exclude build to rent in the above categorisation as that's actually helping things.
    The only entity that is going to build affordable housing is the state either directly or through housing associations.
    There could also be a shake-up of property taxes to improve liquidity in the housing market, the disincentives to downsize don't help, unlikely to happen though.
    Liberate the market and anyone can build affordable properties - and if any firm refuses, someone else will grab the custom instead.

    The problem is our current planning system which grants permission to developers to develop entire estates while denying permission to others.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Frankly if a UK business can’t afford to pay people a living wage then I would not be happy supporting them.

    Which isn't what you were saying not long ago when you were demanding that employers be able to bring in people on minimum wage into the country to evade pay rises to fill vacancies.

    Specifically you said local hospitality couldn't fill vacancies unless people were allowed to migrate on the existing minimum wage rather than put up wages.
    When did I say that then?
    A while back when London restauranteurs were in the news for not being able to fill vacancies and saying more migrants were needed to fill them.

    I said they should just let supply and demand sort the labour market and pay a higher wage. You said they couldn't afford to pay higher wages.

    I said if they can't afford higher wages then the least productive firms should go out of business and the more productive ones would gain the customers of the other ones and be able to afford the higher wages. You said you were opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business.
    I am opposed to the idea of pubs going out of business. The moves tomorrow are not going to put pubs out of business though.

    Anyway, is everything alright on your side? We haven't crossed paths recently and I always used to see you post frequently.
    I mean pubs will definitely go out of business in a wage/price spiral. Not enough people on the minimum wage go to pubs so there won't be much additional demand but prices will have to go up to pay for the increased rates. Booze in pubs has got very elastic demand.
    Sadly going to the pub is so expensive that I don't go as much as I used to, despite earning significantly more. Corner shop is just so much cheaper.
    No that's not true, the demand for pubs at £9 per pint will be noticeably lower than £7 per pint. Pubs are going to close and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
    There are other things we should be doing to help the industry rather than keeping wages low.
    Indeed.

    But it's amusing how some people are perfectly OK with wages going up as long as it's the state determining that everyone's wages go up, with no regards to local market conditions.

    While being utterly horrified at supply and demand and local market conditions meaning that wages might locally go up above minimum wage if that is what is required.

    The minimum wage should be a floor, not a ceiling, to wages.
    Without productivity improvements minimum wage does act as a ceiling as well as a floor.

    It does mean that pubs will need to careful manage the hours they open but the biggest issue for most won't be the minimum wage it will be the fact their business rates (which have been discounted since 2021) will be reverting back to their historic levels if the 75% relief that ends in March isn't extended.
    In a free market wage rises can lead to productivity rises.

    If market conditions demand above minimum wage pay rates to fill vacancies but some firms can't afford the wage rise so go out of business, leading to consolidation of the market and customers from those firms now frequenting the surviving firms, then the surviving firms staff both have higher pay and are more productive (serving more customers per hour).

    A rise led by diktat rather than market forces doesn't have the same productivity boost.
    I think at current rates it may in fact have the opposite effect as wage growth elsewhere in a business are sacrificed to pay for the minimum wage rises. So what ends up happening is highly productive people either leave or become less motivated/productive to retain people on lower wages. What worries me is that Labour are simultaneously increasing business costs in wages, NI and supposedly NI on pension contributions as well as small business rates relief being on the chopping block. It's going to lead to a lot of upheaval if they do all four of those. Lots won't survive and unemployment will go up, probably by a fair amount.
    Max you are discussing with a turnip.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,678
    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    “Prime Minister, why was Taylor Swift given a special police escort?”

    Hmmm

    Hmmmmm what? What do you think the issue is? Home Secretary and Mayor believe extra protection needed following Austrian terrorist issue. Police disagree. Home Secretary and Mayor get their way, possibly under pressure from Swift's team. Seems normal stuff.

    What new conspiracy are you trying to spread now?
    Are we sure Taylor Swift was threatened by a terrorist in Austria or someone with mental health issues? I guess our gov would know without doubt I suppose.
    I have no idea. Could be either. Unlike @moonshine I don't assume there is some sort of conspiracy. But then unlike her I don't go down the alt-right rabbit holes.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,640

    @TimS can you link this post? That's shocking to see overt racism on this board now.

    Things really have descended. Sad.

    I presume you are referring to https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5005818/#Comment_5005818 ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139

    Omnium said:

    Rachel Reevs replaces portrait of Nigel Lawson with community party founder.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/29/rachel-reeves-replaces-portrait-nigel-lawson-communist-uk/

    Sad, Woke, Left-wing shit by juveniles playing at government.
    Come along. Would you really want a snap of Nigel Lawson on your wall? I wouldn't even want a snap of Nigella Lawson, and she's considerably easier on the eye than her father.
    Ellen Wilkinson (who I believe the portrait is of), is a fascinating character who, as an early female MP and cabinet minister, achieved a heck of a lot. On that basis, she's a reasonable person for a female chancellor to have on her wall.

    Despite her also being a communist... ;)
    Served in Churchill's wartime government as well.

    Allowing right wingers to make themselves look silly by criticising her is just a bonus.
    Stafford Cripps also served in Churchill's wartime government, and he turned out to be a shitty little traitor.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    Ratters said:

    I'm not sure if it's just where I live and work, but there's still absolutely loads of pubs everywhere.

    All my life I've heard they're closing in large numbers. I'm sure it's true, but there's still loads, there were clearly way more than needed, even if trends meant they were more used before.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207

    spudgfsh said:

    No 10 denying prior knowledge of the decision by the CPS to charge the suspect with terrorism

    I expect an urgent question to the Home Secretary asking when she knew ricin and the Al Quaeda manual had been discovered in the suspects house

    I suspect she found out quite late on. even with high profile cases like this there'd be little to no communication with the home secretary about operational matters.
    Seriously? It’s not just this week the rice in the Tupperware and a manual was found is it? These were found hours after the attack.

    I’m with Big G on this one. Urgent Ricingate questions for Cooper to answer, what did she know and when.
    Do you know when they were found? What's your source?
    The manual could have been encrypted and significant time taken to decrypt etc. The ricin would have needed samples taken and testing. We don't know when the first inklings were that maybe it was terror related.
    Hmmm. I suspect people whose job is to look for ricin and other such terrorist chemistry sets know pretty much in seconds that they are dealing with an attempt ricin manufacture.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,141
    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    The pollings all over the place . In Arizona a shock poll by Data Orbital gives Trump an 8 point lead , CNN have Harris in the lead by 1 point .

    Earlier Susquehanna give Harris a 5 point lead in Michigan as opposed to Emerson who give Trump a 1 point lead .

    And not poll related Trump just called his hate rally a love-fest !

    Data Orbital called Arizona pretty well in 2020.

    That said, CNN -which was also broadly right in 2020- came out yesterday with a Harris +1 in AZ.

    So you pays your money. Right now, the mood music suggests that Trump is ahead in AZ, NV, GA and NC... but that the rust belt is much tighter.
    I’m still confident of NC, I think that’s more likely for Harris than Georgia. Nevada looks weird , I think the Indy’s are breaking heavily for Harris . I think Michigan and Pennsylvania are looking good for Harris . Wisconsin I think is going to be incredibly close .
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,843
    kle4 said:

    Ratters said:

    I'm not sure if it's just where I live and work, but there's still absolutely loads of pubs everywhere.

    All my life I've heard they're closing in large numbers. I'm sure it's true, but there's still loads, there were clearly way more than needed, even if trends meant they were more used before.
    There is no such thing as “more than needed” when it comes to pubs. I currently only really have three pubs near my house, which isn’t enough for “one pub, one pint” as I was brought up to do.
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