Also unnecessary - she’s surely winning? Unless she has private info that she’s not and she needs to do this
She's winning. She was probably just goaded into an indiscreet answer.
She's right though.
I'm not sure she is. Jenrick was a very successful housing Minister in terms of his record of getting houses built, and it is notable that Tower Hamlets council have now approved this scheme, several years and several millions of wasted pounds later. Jenrick didn't benefit personally, so I don’t hugely see the issue. As for Desmond's jazz mags, if anyone has never looked at such imagery, feel free to cast the first stone.
Are you sure he won't benefit personally from the scheme X years down the line
Politicians get their rewards on retirement via cushy "jobs" not while in frontline politics..
Is there any particular reason the government are making such a big deal of the budget?
It's all we've heard about for weeks if not months and now Starmer's doing a "pre budget speech"
I can't remember such a big build up to a budget before. Odd.
Starmer doubling down on this “service of working people” stuff despite nobody in government really being that clear on what a working person is. Most odd messaging.
Yeah, it's really odd. It's like they've deliberately gone out of their way to build up this budget with the the absolute worst messaging they possibly could.
All they've achieved for weeks now is to make people increasingly worried and anxious. 🙄
It’s the messaging I find really odd.
Things are terrible, but they’ll get worse (he did his “worse than we ever expected” line again today).
It’s a budget for growth, but infrastructure projects canned when Reeves found her “black hole”.
It’s for working people, but we don’t know who they really are.
It’s not austerity but there’ll be spending cuts.
They are also absolutely useless at explaining what the end goal is. What is Starmer’s ideal Britain? All I hear is something that is a little bit less rubbish than before. I get not wanting to look like you’re under delivering but come on.
Yep, Emma Barnett haranguing a Labour politician as usual. "He's been suspended. There's an ongoing police investigation. I won't comment on that investigation." "Can he remain an MP?"
I'm surprised that Today didn't use her for the piece on modern slavery.
Is there any particular reason the government are making such a big deal of the budget?
It's all we've heard about for weeks if not months and now Starmer's doing a "pre budget speech"
I can't remember such a big build up to a budget before. Odd.
Starmer doubling down on this “service of working people” stuff despite nobody in government really being that clear on what a working person is. Most odd messaging.
As far as I can tell, his definition of 'working person' means people living hand to mouth. Zero savings, zero investments, just a monthly pay cheque that goes in at the end of the month and is spent by the end of the next.
Since that's probably over half the UK he's probably right in that they will not immediately notice much difference. Except on fuel duty or the end of the £2 flat fare bus fee, so commuting costs likely to rise substantially.
But if you have any ambition, are a saver, an investor, or a higher income earner - anyone over 50k - expect to get clobbered.
And with regards the Employer's NI rise, one good comment on the FT today (not me, I promise), states: raising tax on alcohol reduces alcohol consumption, tax on smoking reduces smoking. What does raising tax on employment do?
The winners here are going to be anyone who works in the public sector. This budget will rebalance the economy away from private sector jobs towards public sector ones - it's that simple.
It might be a recipe for improving public services like the NHS (or the money might all end up spaffed up the wall on middle managers as it usually does). But it will certainly be harmful to the private sector, and, ultimately, growth.
Back to the 70s - tax the private sector and private individuals until the pips squeak, redistribute the wealth through the public sector. Wonder why the economy isn't growing.
It was a pretty poor effort. Where were the attempts to take control of the army, navy, air force, police, national guard? What was the plan? Hitlers attempt in 1923 was better organised (and still shit).
Does a plan have to be viable to be real? If someone attempts murder but fails due to incompetence is that still not attempted murder?
As to the plan, the thinking seems to be that preventing the certification of the election would have resulted in Trump claiming emergency powers and making spurious claims of election interference, to kick the decision up to the courts. Would it have worked? Probably not. That wouldn't have made it any less real.
Surely there would have been some kind of trail of this. Utter fantasist nonsense, just as it was to describe what happened then as an insurrection. It was a crowd that got out of control without any real aim to achieve anything, it is clear there was no organisation or premeditation. Absolutely zero anticipation of being able to get into the building.
Trump's biggest crime was been a sore loser.
They did get into the building.
And the videos that were eventually released of them being escorted through looked about as disorderly as year 11 school trip.
The Trump rally - why is anyone surprised? Trump has shifted himself firmly into the fascist arena and like any good demagogue is doing a fine job of fanning the flames.
What surprises me are the people insisting that 4-star General Kelly et al are wrong in their detailed and experience-based description of Trump as fascist.
So of course the rally, the abuse, the insults, the othering. That is literally the campaign - fight for the American People against this existential threat from within.
I remain convinced that Harris will win: because the shift in voting intent to elect Trump after the 2020 election in this circumstance doesn't feel tangible, and because polls suggest a very determined deep dive for voters for Harris and a self-hyping "landslide, because everyone I know thinks like me" for Trump.
He's not a fascist and every time* someone calls him a fascist it hardens and motivates his support.
*perhaps less so someone posting on a UK politics website.
If it walks like a fascist, quacks like a fascist...
The issue with this is its the same as right wing people describing anyone left wing as communists. Might make you feel good, but is it an accurate representation? Is Meloni a fascist in Italy (the true home of fascists)?
Meloni seems to be committed to parliamentary democracy. Has she or her party done anything to undermine democracy in Italy? Genuine question.
As opposed to a long running campaign by the MAGA types to take control of the federal vote count and massively distort the process. See Nov 6, where literally setting aside the election result was attempted?
Re Meloni I am thinking back to the hysteria around her coming to power.
When Trump was elected last time one of my colleagues (admittedly someone who is rather Eeyorish about a lot of things) was convinced we were heading for all our war and the use of nukes. Didn't happen of course.
In the UK we see just how much of what is said and written in manifestos and campaign speeches comes to pass.
I suspect that for all the talk, a new Trump presidency will be much like the last.
[/arch one-liner rhetorical question] The last that started with the president withholding military aid from Ukraine unless it dug up dirt on a political opponent and ended with the president refusing to accept defeat in the election and inciting an attempted coup? That one? [/arch one-liner rhetorical question]
ETA: I also don't remember much hysteria when Meloni came to power.
I think there was a fair bit, but it might just have been a certain flint knapper with the hots for her.
Rre Trump - accept that, but the system worked, Biden took over as president. Why do people believe that the US system is so fragile?
Small margins etc. What do you think the Trump-encouraged mob, sorry, peaceful sightseers, would have done if they'd caught Pence or Pelosi?
I don't know. I do suspect that if they had murdered them then the full weight of the law and justice would have come down on them, as indeed it did anyway. USA is not some third worldbanana replublic Global Majority country where you can overthrow democracy with a few crazies with guns. Do people honestly believe that the Trump inspired attempted coup had a scintilla of a chance of success? Really?
It drives people mad on here. It was not a coup. It was an opportunist show of something or other and no one really expected to end up wandering around the Capitol. Did Trump "incite" it? Perhaps, but as you note, it was all conducted in the context of a "muscular" laura norder environment and the ones who were defending the Capitol/pushing the demonstrators back were heavily-armed agents of the state. With more to come as they got their act together.
Thank goodness we non USonian PBers driven mad enough to comment ignorantly on US politics from a great distance have wise non USonian PBers to makes sense of it all from a great distance.
Everyone is entitled to their view. I see a lot as overblown hysteria. Quite likely I am wrong and Trump's America will shortly be the facist state of much of PB's imagination. Or maybe it won't.
If he wins the best hope is that he will devote himself to golf. That speaks volumes.
Not a fascist. Well the behaviours on show can be directly mapped to fascist behaviours by people who know about them from working directly for the man for 2 years.
Not a coup. Well it was according to testimony from the people on the inside who were planning it. And they detail with evidence that Trump was at the heart of it.
But hey, we can discount facts and logic and reason because they are all politically biased or something. These witnesses can all be discounted as untrustworthy. Except that they were appointed by Trump and served him for extended periods. But you can trust Trump because he always appoints great people...
"planning it" You are living in a parallel world. A nation that has military grade arms widely in the hands of the population, but didnt seem to figure in the actual event.
Absurd nonsense. It got out of hand, in the same was as the marches that ended up with the hostels set alight here. It was not some make or break attempt to bring down the system, a crowd cajoled along at the hands of some hot heads.
The Trump rally - why is anyone surprised? Trump has shifted himself firmly into the fascist arena and like any good demagogue is doing a fine job of fanning the flames.
What surprises me are the people insisting that 4-star General Kelly et al are wrong in their detailed and experience-based description of Trump as fascist.
So of course the rally, the abuse, the insults, the othering. That is literally the campaign - fight for the American People against this existential threat from within.
I remain convinced that Harris will win: because the shift in voting intent to elect Trump after the 2020 election in this circumstance doesn't feel tangible, and because polls suggest a very determined deep dive for voters for Harris and a self-hyping "landslide, because everyone I know thinks like me" for Trump.
He's not a fascist and every time* someone calls him a fascist it hardens and motivates his support.
*perhaps less so someone posting on a UK politics website.
If it walks like a fascist, quacks like a fascist...
The issue with this is its the same as right wing people describing anyone left wing as communists. Might make you feel good, but is it an accurate representation? Is Meloni a fascist in Italy (the true home of fascists)?
Meloni seems to be committed to parliamentary democracy. Has she or her party done anything to undermine democracy in Italy? Genuine question.
As opposed to a long running campaign by the MAGA types to take control of the federal vote count and massively distort the process. See Nov 6, where literally setting aside the election result was attempted?
Re Meloni I am thinking back to the hysteria around her coming to power.
When Trump was elected last time one of my colleagues (admittedly someone who is rather Eeyorish about a lot of things) was convinced we were heading for all our war and the use of nukes. Didn't happen of course.
In the UK we see just how much of what is said and written in manifestos and campaign speeches comes to pass.
I suspect that for all the talk, a new Trump presidency will be much like the last.
[/arch one-liner rhetorical question] The last that started with the president withholding military aid from Ukraine unless it dug up dirt on a political opponent and ended with the president refusing to accept defeat in the election and inciting an attempted coup? That one? [/arch one-liner rhetorical question]
ETA: I also don't remember much hysteria when Meloni came to power.
I think there was a fair bit, but it might just have been a certain flint knapper with the hots for her.
Rre Trump - accept that, but the system worked, Biden took over as president. Why do people believe that the US system is so fragile?
Small margins etc. What do you think the Trump-encouraged mob, sorry, peaceful sightseers, would have done if they'd caught Pence or Pelosi?
I don't know. I do suspect that if they had murdered them then the full weight of the law and justice would have come down on them, as indeed it did anyway. USA is not some third worldbanana replublic Global Majority country where you can overthrow democracy with a few crazies with guns. Do people honestly believe that the Trump inspired attempted coup had a scintilla of a chance of success? Really?
It drives people mad on here. It was not a coup. It was an opportunist show of something or other and no one really expected to end up wandering around the Capitol. Did Trump "incite" it? Perhaps, but as you note, it was all conducted in the context of a "muscular" laura norder environment and the ones who were defending the Capitol/pushing the demonstrators back were heavily-armed agents of the state. With more to come as they got their act together.
Thank goodness we non USonian PBers driven mad enough to comment ignorantly on US politics from a great distance have wise non USonian PBers to makes sense of it all from a great distance.
Everyone is entitled to their view. I see a lot as overblown hysteria. Quite likely I am wrong and Trump's America will shortly be the facist state of much of PB's imagination. Or maybe it won't.
If he wins the best hope is that he will devote himself to golf. That speaks volumes.
I expect to be hosed by the Budget and good thing too. I overpay on tax but all people in my position should pay more tax. I’ll be glad to see us all paying more.
Not a fascist. Well the behaviours on show can be directly mapped to fascist behaviours by people who know about them from working directly for the man for 2 years.
Not a coup. Well it was according to testimony from the people on the inside who were planning it. And they detail with evidence that Trump was at the heart of it.
But hey, we can discount facts and logic and reason because they are all politically biased or something. These witnesses can all be discounted as untrustworthy. Except that they were appointed by Trump and served him for extended periods. But you can trust Trump because he always appoints great people...
"planning it" You are living in a parallel world. A nation that has military grade arms widely in the hands of the population, but didnt seem to figure in the actual event.
Absurd nonsense. It got out of hand, in the same was as the marches that ended up with the hostels set alight here. It was not some make or break attempt to bring down the system, a crowd cajoled along at the hands of some hot heads.
I expect to be hosed by the Budget and good thing too. I overpay on tax but all people in my position should pay more tax. I’ll be glad to see us all paying more.
You're not going to take your wealth off-shore then Horsey? 😂
Could be heading for the first by election of the 2024 Parliament?
Although Iain Dale thinks Rishi and Oliver Dowden will stand down as soon as the new leader is announced.
Surely Rishi wouldn't be that... brazen would he?
That job in California is patiently waiting.
Rishi said he will serve a full term and I believe him. It is not as if he needs even Silicon Valley money. My guess would be that his daughters' education will decide his timing. When can they most easily change systems?
It was a pretty poor effort. Where were the attempts to take control of the army, navy, air force, police, national guard? What was the plan? Hitlers attempt in 1923 was better organised (and still shit).
Does a plan have to be viable to be real? If someone attempts murder but fails due to incompetence is that still not attempted murder?
As to the plan, the thinking seems to be that preventing the certification of the election would have resulted in Trump claiming emergency powers and making spurious claims of election interference, to kick the decision up to the courts. Would it have worked? Probably not. That wouldn't have made it any less real.
Surely there would have been some kind of trail of this. Utter fantasist nonsense, just as it was to describe what happened then as an insurrection. It was a crowd that got out of control without any real aim to achieve anything, it is clear there was no organisation or premeditation. Absolutely zero anticipation of being able to get into the building.
Trump's biggest crime was been a sore loser.
They did get into the building.
It was a close-run thing. The outgoing administration had refused to deploy the National Guard days before. After four years' hindsight I'm fairly sure this was correct, if probably for the wrong reasons. A civilian event in a mature democracy should not be surrounded by an armed militia and if it had there would have been mass fatalities and an inextinguishable cause célèbre for the extreme, and not so extreme, Right. You have to win the peace as well as the war and there are always casualties.
I'm not what the reference to Armed Militia is there.
The Jan 6 insurrectionists came with their own armed miliitia, in groups such as the Proud Boys and others. The leader of that group received 22 years in prison for his activities,
Fascist would be a reasonable description of Trump, if actions match rhetoric (and when people say hateful things, they usually mean them).
"root out the Communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, that lie and steal and cheat on elections"
"Free the January 6 Hostages being wrongfully imprisoned!" (shades of Potempa).
“Human Scum that is working so hard to destroy our Once Great Country.”
“Kamala [Harris] has imported an army of illegal alien gang members and migrant criminals from the dungeons of the third world … from prisons and jails and insane asylums and mental institutions, and she has had them resettled beautifully into your community to prey upon innocent American citizens"
“How about allowing people to come to an open border, 13,000 of which were murderers, many of them murdered far more than one person, and they’re now happily living in the United States. You know now a murder, I believe this, it’s in their genes. And we got a lot of bad genes in our country right now"
“they’re poisoning the blood of our country.”
"They're eating the dogs; they're eating the cats; they're eating the pets of the people who live there."
All of this would be recognisable to anyone living in the 1930's.
If it’s anyone not hit by his budget it will be a small group indeed.
Given the gap between government income and government expenditure, that's inevitable. Last year's budget deficit was £120 billion, getting on for £2000 per person. Even on current spending, there's a £50 billion gap, so about £700 a person.
Hangovers aren't supposed to be fun. That we got the hangover at a really rubbish party doesn't change that.
Not a fascist. Well the behaviours on show can be directly mapped to fascist behaviours by people who know about them from working directly for the man for 2 years.
Not a coup. Well it was according to testimony from the people on the inside who were planning it. And they detail with evidence that Trump was at the heart of it.
But hey, we can discount facts and logic and reason because they are all politically biased or something. These witnesses can all be discounted as untrustworthy. Except that they were appointed by Trump and served him for extended periods. But you can trust Trump because he always appoints great people...
"planning it" You are living in a parallel world. A nation that has military grade arms widely in the hands of the population, but didnt seem to figure in the actual event.
Absurd nonsense. It got out of hand, in the same was as the marches that ended up with the hostels set alight here. It was not some make or break attempt to bring down the system, a crowd cajoled along at the hands of some hot heads.
There was no strategic planning of the event.
'There was no strategic planning of the event.'
I think we can agree on that.
I can't agree on that. There was plenty of planning.
Record low fertility rate in England and Wales in 2023 - down to 1.44. Fewest births in absolute terms since 1977, which itself was the lowest since 1849.
1977 was the year I was born so at least my mum and dad did their bit for humanity lol!
Not a fascist. Well the behaviours on show can be directly mapped to fascist behaviours by people who know about them from working directly for the man for 2 years.
Not a coup. Well it was according to testimony from the people on the inside who were planning it. And they detail with evidence that Trump was at the heart of it.
But hey, we can discount facts and logic and reason because they are all politically biased or something. These witnesses can all be discounted as untrustworthy. Except that they were appointed by Trump and served him for extended periods. But you can trust Trump because he always appoints great people...
"planning it" You are living in a parallel world. A nation that has military grade arms widely in the hands of the population, but didnt seem to figure in the actual event.
Absurd nonsense. It got out of hand, in the same was as the marches that ended up with the hostels set alight here. It was not some make or break attempt to bring down the system, a crowd cajoled along at the hands of some hot heads.
There was no strategic planning of the event.
Are we talking about the same event?
This was not a military coup. Nor does a coup have to be military to be a coup.
This was a constitutional coup. A specific plot to throw out the election result by submitting pro-Trump electors who they knew to be fraudulent, for the specific reason of getting the Electoral College set aside so that the GOP could simply elect him in Congress.
The armed insurrection was the result of the imminent failure of the coup attempt, where Trump hoped to force the hand of Pence and make him follow the plan at the last minute.
No strategic planning? You're discounting the evidence - submitted by the Trump team - because you don't like the findings. Like a man shaking his fist at the moon...
Is there any particular reason the government are making such a big deal of the budget?
It's all we've heard about for weeks if not months and now Starmer's doing a "pre budget speech"
I can't remember such a big build up to a budget before. Odd.
Starmer doubling down on this “service of working people” stuff despite nobody in government really being that clear on what a working person is. Most odd messaging.
As far as I can tell, his definition of 'working person' means people living hand to mouth. Zero savings, zero investments, just a monthly pay cheque that goes in at the end of the month and is spent by the end of the next.
Since that's probably over half the UK he's probably right in that they will not immediately notice much difference. Except on fuel duty or the end of the £2 flat fare bus fee, so commuting costs likely to rise substantially.
But if you have any ambition, are a saver, an investor, or a higher income earner - anyone over 50k - expect to get clobbered.
And with regards the Employer's NI rise, one good comment on the FT today (not me, I promise), states: raising tax on alcohol reduces alcohol consumption, tax on smoking reduces smoking. What does raising tax on employment do?
The winners here are going to be anyone who works in the public sector. This budget will rebalance the economy away from private sector jobs towards public sector ones - it's that simple.
It might be a recipe for improving public services like the NHS (or the money might all end up spaffed up the wall on middle managers as it usually does). But it will certainly be harmful to the private sector, and, ultimately, growth.
Back to the 70s - tax the private sector and private individuals until the pips squeak, redistribute the wealth through the public sector. Wonder why the economy isn't growing.
Not a fascist. Well the behaviours on show can be directly mapped to fascist behaviours by people who know about them from working directly for the man for 2 years.
Not a coup. Well it was according to testimony from the people on the inside who were planning it. And they detail with evidence that Trump was at the heart of it.
But hey, we can discount facts and logic and reason because they are all politically biased or something. These witnesses can all be discounted as untrustworthy. Except that they were appointed by Trump and served him for extended periods. But you can trust Trump because he always appoints great people...
"planning it" You are living in a parallel world. A nation that has military grade arms widely in the hands of the population, but didnt seem to figure in the actual event.
Absurd nonsense. It got out of hand, in the same was as the marches that ended up with the hostels set alight here. It was not some make or break attempt to bring down the system, a crowd cajoled along at the hands of some hot heads.
Also unnecessary - she’s surely winning? Unless she has private info that she’s not and she needs to do this
She's winning. She was probably just goaded into an indiscreet answer.
She's right though.
I'm not sure she is. Jenrick was a very successful housing Minister in terms of his record of getting houses built, and it is notable that Tower Hamlets council have now approved this scheme, several years and several millions of wasted pounds later. Jenrick didn't benefit personally, so I don’t hugely see the issue. As for Desmond's jazz mags, if anyone has never looked at such imagery, feel free to cast the first stone.
Are you sure he won't benefit personally from the scheme X years down the line
Politicians get their rewards on retirement via cushy "jobs" not while in frontline politics..
He may well (though the action he took on Desmond's behalf was ultimately unsuccessful), but that's all politics. You can't get them on future preferment possibilities, as £20,000 a speech Theresa May would attest.
Not a fascist. Well the behaviours on show can be directly mapped to fascist behaviours by people who know about them from working directly for the man for 2 years.
Not a coup. Well it was according to testimony from the people on the inside who were planning it. And they detail with evidence that Trump was at the heart of it.
But hey, we can discount facts and logic and reason because they are all politically biased or something. These witnesses can all be discounted as untrustworthy. Except that they were appointed by Trump and served him for extended periods. But you can trust Trump because he always appoints great people...
"planning it" You are living in a parallel world. A nation that has military grade arms widely in the hands of the population, but didnt seem to figure in the actual event.
Absurd nonsense. It got out of hand, in the same was as the marches that ended up with the hostels set alight here. It was not some make or break attempt to bring down the system, a crowd cajoled along at the hands of some hot heads.
There was no strategic planning of the event.
'There was no strategic planning of the event.'
I think we can agree on that.
"incompetent criminals shouldn't be punished".
I didn't say that. I intended to infer that Trump couldn't run the coup he'd started.
Record low fertility rate in England and Wales in 2023 - down to 1.44. Fewest births in absolute terms since 1977, which itself was the lowest since 1849.
1977 was the year I was born so at least my mum and dad did their bit for humanity lol!
The population of the UK actually declined by 27,000 in 1977.
In summary, get a good sleep on election night on an even closer election night this time as most swing states weren't called on election night last time. Plus Pennsylvania as decider wasn't called until days after neither was Nevada and Georgia and North Carolina not called until over 5 days after polls closed
Record low fertility rate in England and Wales in 2023 - down to 1.44. Fewest births in absolute terms since 1977, which itself was the lowest since 1849.
Are we trending towards ultra-low fertility rates other places have? We had previously been bouncing around between 1.6 and 1.9 since the mid-70s (average 1.8). It is only the last 5 years we've dived to new lows.
The long-term political dynamics arising are huge, even if the figures are abstract. Let's say over two generations and assuming 2.1 as the replacement rate and ignoring migration:
- 1.8 fertility rate. Population falls by c.25% - 1.4 fertility rate. Population falls by c.55% - 1.0 fertility rate. Population falls by c.75%.
Not good but if immigration is just used to fill the gap not great for social cohesion either. We need more subsidy for mothers with children as Meloni is doing in Italy.
Also means the UK has now fallen below Austria, Canada, Germany, Poland and Russia, Hungary, Norway and Switzerland and Uruguay in terms of our fertility rate. Though we are still ahead of Finland, Italy for now, Jamaica, Ukraine, Malta, Bosnia, Japan, Spain, China, Thailand and South Korea and Singapore.
Ireland and France on 1.8 and Israel on 2.9 the only nations in the western world with a reasonably healthy fertility rate. Israel probably now has even more children than it needs
Could be heading for the first by election of the 2024 Parliament?
Yes. About 40% chance I would think. It was be a good opportunity for 'Reform surge' publicity, and a sub optimal one for the LDs who would be out of it altogether.
Would give Trump a higher national popular voteshare than he got in 2016 or 2020 while Harris would be at Hillary 2016 or Kerry 2004 or Gore 2000 levels.
So all comes down to the swing states even if Trump narrowly wins the popular vote this time
Also unnecessary - she’s surely winning? Unless she has private info that she’s not and she needs to do this
She's winning. She was probably just goaded into an indiscreet answer.
She's right though.
I'm not sure she is. Jenrick was a very successful housing Minister in terms of his record of getting houses built, and it is notable that Tower Hamlets council have now approved this scheme, several years and several millions of wasted pounds later. Jenrick didn't benefit personally, so I don’t hugely see the issue. As for Desmond's jazz mags, if anyone has never looked at such imagery, feel free to cast the first stone.
Hmmm.
Jenrick was Housing Minister from 24 July 2019 – 15 September 2021.
Is there any particular reason the government are making such a big deal of the budget?
It's all we've heard about for weeks if not months and now Starmer's doing a "pre budget speech"
I can't remember such a big build up to a budget before. Odd.
Starmer doubling down on this “service of working people” stuff despite nobody in government really being that clear on what a working person is. Most odd messaging.
As far as I can tell, his definition of 'working person' means people living hand to mouth. Zero savings, zero investments, just a monthly pay cheque that goes in at the end of the month and is spent by the end of the next.
Since that's probably over half the UK he's probably right in that they will not immediately notice much difference. Except on fuel duty or the end of the £2 flat fare bus fee, so commuting costs likely to rise substantially.
But if you have any ambition, are a saver, an investor, or a higher income earner - anyone over 50k - expect to get clobbered.
And with regards the Employer's NI rise, one good comment on the FT today (not me, I promise), states: raising tax on alcohol reduces alcohol consumption, tax on smoking reduces smoking. What does raising tax on employment do?
The winners here are going to be anyone who works in the public sector. This budget will rebalance the economy away from private sector jobs towards public sector ones - it's that simple.
It might be a recipe for improving public services like the NHS (or the money might all end up spaffed up the wall on middle managers as it usually does). But it will certainly be harmful to the private sector, and, ultimately, growth.
Back to the 70s - tax the private sector and private individuals until the pips squeak, redistribute the wealth through the public sector. Wonder why the economy isn't growing.
The sans culottes.
Irrespective of his record in government, Blair's greatest achievement was recognising that 'working people' were also aspirational people. They wanted to save, to own their own home, get promoted, start businesses, give their children a better start in life than they had, and pass on a little more wealth to to them.
I am under no illusion, life under the previous 14 years of Conservative government was far from aspirational. It was a grind, with most people feeling poorer and opportunities few and far between.
But rather than bringing back the politics of aspiration, Labour under Starmer and Reeves look set to choose the path of big government, tax and spend, redistributive policies (by which I largely mean redistributing from the private sector to the state).
That fits plausibly with a definition of a working person as someone who lives hand to mouth. It completely ignores the idea that a working person might ever aspire to be anything more. Where are the opportunities to get ahead in Starmer's Britain?
In my view it's less the middle aged millionaires buggering off we have to worry about - although that will happen - it's the twenty-somethings who feel there are no opportunities to get ahead in life, who will leave.
"@PolitlcsUK 🚨 NEW: Labour MPs Diane Abbott, Clive Lewis and Bell Ribeiro-Addy have accused Keir Starmer of having a 'colonial mindset' over his relutance to discuss reparations for slave trade"
On R2 asked to choose between Harris and Trump Kemi said 'I like them both equally.'
Jenrick had previously said he preferred Trump
So, out of step with British public opinion according to IPSOS "Overall, 14% are favourable towards Donald Trump and 71% are unfavourable, including 83% of 2019 Labour voters, 83% of Remain voters, two-thirds of 2019 Conservative voters (67%) and 65% of Leave voters."
Not a fascist. Well the behaviours on show can be directly mapped to fascist behaviours by people who know about them from working directly for the man for 2 years.
Not a coup. Well it was according to testimony from the people on the inside who were planning it. And they detail with evidence that Trump was at the heart of it.
But hey, we can discount facts and logic and reason because they are all politically biased or something. These witnesses can all be discounted as untrustworthy. Except that they were appointed by Trump and served him for extended periods. But you can trust Trump because he always appoints great people...
Before becoming dependent on his patronage and complicit in Project Trump, Vance says Trump is the US Hitler. After serving a couple of years in senior positions under Trump and no longer giving a toss about Trump patronage, General Kelly says Trump praised Hitler and says he wishes he had generals like those of Hitler.
If I had any doubt that Labour hadn’t a clue, I’m afraid it’s gone after hearing that latest from Starmer.
They don’t know what they’re doing.
I'm genuinely sympathetic to Labour's complaint about Tory incompetence, the broken planning system, slow economic growth, and the lack of both private and public investment. What I don't get is how they are making such a pig's ear of this. Maybe all will become clear on Wednesday, but I suspect not, there's nothing that has so far indicated Labour are up to this challenge.
In summary, get a good sleep on election night on an even closer election night this time as most swing states weren't called on election night last time. Plus Pennsylvania as decider wasn't called until days after neither was Nevada and Georgia and North Carolina not called until over 5 days after polls closed
Very true. Unless it’s a blowout victory for one or the other then we won’t have a victor on election night.
However I think we might have a rough idea the day after. IIRC it was pretty likely Biden was the winner at that point in 2020, just based on where was left to report and the state of the returns so far. If the polls are right and everything actually is on a knife edge and comes down to a few thousand votes, there could be a bigger delay.
I am not looking forward to the interminable drip-drip of results over the following days. I think it was Nevada and Georgia in particular in 2020 that just took forever.
In summary, get a good sleep on election night on an even closer election night this time as most swing states weren't called on election night last time. Plus Pennsylvania as decider wasn't called until days after neither was Nevada and Georgia and North Carolina not called until over 5 days after polls closed
Very true. Unless it’s a blowout victory for one or the other then we won’t have a victor on election night.
However I think we might have a rough idea the day after. IIRC it was pretty likely Biden was the winner at that point in 2020, just based on where was left to report and the state of the returns so far. If the polls are right and everything actually is on a knife edge and comes down to a few thousand votes, there could be a bigger delay.
I am not looking forward to the interminable drip-drip of results over the following days. I think it was Nevada and Georgia in particular in 2020 that just took forever.
It's the drip drip of the results that Trump is probably hoping for - as soon as things look good for him he's going to claim that State of those EC votes as his then protest if things change..
Is there any particular reason the government are making such a big deal of the budget?
It's all we've heard about for weeks if not months and now Starmer's doing a "pre budget speech"
I can't remember such a big build up to a budget before. Odd.
Starmer doubling down on this “service of working people” stuff despite nobody in government really being that clear on what a working person is. Most odd messaging.
As far as I can tell, his definition of 'working person' means people living hand to mouth. Zero savings, zero investments, just a monthly pay cheque that goes in at the end of the month and is spent by the end of the next.
Since that's probably over half the UK he's probably right in that they will not immediately notice much difference. Except on fuel duty or the end of the £2 flat fare bus fee, so commuting costs likely to rise substantially.
But if you have any ambition, are a saver, an investor, or a higher income earner - anyone over 50k - expect to get clobbered.
And with regards the Employer's NI rise, one good comment on the FT today (not me, I promise), states: raising tax on alcohol reduces alcohol consumption, tax on smoking reduces smoking. What does raising tax on employment do?
The winners here are going to be anyone who works in the public sector. This budget will rebalance the economy away from private sector jobs towards public sector ones - it's that simple.
It might be a recipe for improving public services like the NHS (or the money might all end up spaffed up the wall on middle managers as it usually does). But it will certainly be harmful to the private sector, and, ultimately, growth.
Back to the 70s - tax the private sector and private individuals until the pips squeak, redistribute the wealth through the public sector. Wonder why the economy isn't growing.
The sans culottes.
Let's face it, most people don't have "investments" and apart from maybe a sinking fund in case of emergency expenses, not much in savings either. Increasingly everything is a monthly payment which seems designed to milk people of their monthly salary, eg car leases. Add mortgage etc and many people do not carry much forward at the end of the month, however much they earn. Also inflation has been 10% recently, and interest rates have gone up, many people will have gone from being able to save a significant proportion of their earnings every month to nothing at all. I fear that this board is not representative and certainly doesn't understand people whose only or main earnings are as an employee.
Not a fascist. Well the behaviours on show can be directly mapped to fascist behaviours by people who know about them from working directly for the man for 2 years.
Not a coup. Well it was according to testimony from the people on the inside who were planning it. And they detail with evidence that Trump was at the heart of it.
But hey, we can discount facts and logic and reason because they are all politically biased or something. These witnesses can all be discounted as untrustworthy. Except that they were appointed by Trump and served him for extended periods. But you can trust Trump because he always appoints great people...
"planning it" You are living in a parallel world. A nation that has military grade arms widely in the hands of the population, but didnt seem to figure in the actual event.
Absurd nonsense. It got out of hand, in the same was as the marches that ended up with the hostels set alight here. It was not some make or break attempt to bring down the system, a crowd cajoled along at the hands of some hot heads.
There was no strategic planning of the event.
'There was no strategic planning of the event.'
I think we can agree on that.
"incompetent criminals shouldn't be punished".
I didn't say that. I intended to infer that Trump couldn't run the coup he'd started.
Not a fascist. Well the behaviours on show can be directly mapped to fascist behaviours by people who know about them from working directly for the man for 2 years.
Not a coup. Well it was according to testimony from the people on the inside who were planning it. And they detail with evidence that Trump was at the heart of it.
But hey, we can discount facts and logic and reason because they are all politically biased or something. These witnesses can all be discounted as untrustworthy. Except that they were appointed by Trump and served him for extended periods. But you can trust Trump because he always appoints great people...
Before becoming dependent on his patronage and complicit in Project Trump, Vance says Trump is the US Hitler. After serving a couple of years in senior positions under Trump and no longer giving a toss about Trump patronage, General Kelly says Trump praised Hitler and says he wishes he had generals like those of Hitler.
Who to believe?!
Topping is with the venture capital guy, rather than the soldier.
Ronald Brownstein @RonBrownstein · 40m I'm not sure people are grasping the full implication of what he's saying here: that to avoid family separation in mass deportation, Trump would also remove millions of US citizen children-a prospect that takes his deportation plan much deeper into the realm of ethnic cleansing
Not a fascist. Well the behaviours on show can be directly mapped to fascist behaviours by people who know about them from working directly for the man for 2 years.
Not a coup. Well it was according to testimony from the people on the inside who were planning it. And they detail with evidence that Trump was at the heart of it.
But hey, we can discount facts and logic and reason because they are all politically biased or something. These witnesses can all be discounted as untrustworthy. Except that they were appointed by Trump and served him for extended periods. But you can trust Trump because he always appoints great people...
Before becoming dependent on his patronage and complicit in Project Trump, Vance says Trump is the US Hitler. After serving a couple of years in senior positions under Trump and no longer giving a toss about Trump patronage, General Kelly says Trump praised Hitler and says he wishes he had generals like those of Hitler.
Who to believe?!
Topping is with the venture capital guy, rather than the soldier.
Is there any particular reason the government are making such a big deal of the budget?
It's all we've heard about for weeks if not months and now Starmer's doing a "pre budget speech"
I can't remember such a big build up to a budget before. Odd.
Starmer doubling down on this “service of working people” stuff despite nobody in government really being that clear on what a working person is. Most odd messaging.
As far as I can tell, his definition of 'working person' means people living hand to mouth. Zero savings, zero investments, just a monthly pay cheque that goes in at the end of the month and is spent by the end of the next.
Since that's probably over half the UK he's probably right in that they will not immediately notice much difference. Except on fuel duty or the end of the £2 flat fare bus fee, so commuting costs likely to rise substantially.
But if you have any ambition, are a saver, an investor, or a higher income earner - anyone over 50k - expect to get clobbered.
And with regards the Employer's NI rise, one good comment on the FT today (not me, I promise), states: raising tax on alcohol reduces alcohol consumption, tax on smoking reduces smoking. What does raising tax on employment do?
The winners here are going to be anyone who works in the public sector. This budget will rebalance the economy away from private sector jobs towards public sector ones - it's that simple.
It might be a recipe for improving public services like the NHS (or the money might all end up spaffed up the wall on middle managers as it usually does). But it will certainly be harmful to the private sector, and, ultimately, growth.
Back to the 70s - tax the private sector and private individuals until the pips squeak, redistribute the wealth through the public sector. Wonder why the economy isn't growing.
The sans culottes.
Let's face it, most people don't have "investments" and apart from maybe a sinking fund in case of emergency expenses, not much in savings either. Increasingly everything is a monthly payment which seems designed to milk people of their monthly salary, eg car leases. Add mortgage etc and many people do not carry much forward at the end of the month, however much they earn. Also inflation has been 10% recently, and interest rates have gone up, many people will have gone from being able to save a significant proportion of their earnings every month to nothing at all. I fear that this board is not representative and certainly doesn't understand people whose only or main earnings are as an employee.
One in three adults have less than £1000 in savings.
"@PolitlcsUK 🚨 NEW: Labour MPs Diane Abbott, Clive Lewis and Bell Ribeiro-Addy have accused Keir Starmer of having a 'colonial mindset' over his relutance to discuss reparations for slave trade"
In summary, get a good sleep on election night on an even closer election night this time as most swing states weren't called on election night last time. Plus Pennsylvania as decider wasn't called until days after neither was Nevada and Georgia and North Carolina not called until over 5 days after polls closed
The alternate view is that the overnight betting might be very interesting, whether the result is close, or a blowout for one side or other.
Is there any particular reason the government are making such a big deal of the budget?
It's all we've heard about for weeks if not months and now Starmer's doing a "pre budget speech"
I can't remember such a big build up to a budget before. Odd.
It is, or at least should be*, a hugely important budget - a pivotal budget. As such the build up is fair.
It's only the 4th time in my adult life that there's been a change of governement budget.
(*I fear I will be rather disappointed.)
But all of the build up has done absolutely nothing to make the governments case or objections any clearer.
All it's achieved is months of sub-optimal headlines and to make people increasingly worried and anxious.
I suspect it's got the point where even if the budget isn't half as bad as the pre-budget build up, the public will still think it is as everyone is in such a downbeat mindset.
Mike Amesbury: "We need this opportunity today to talk about the issue of violence and threats faced by thousands of our constituents in their day to day lives"
Comments
Gutted
Politicians get their rewards on retirement via cushy "jobs" not while in frontline politics..
Things are terrible, but they’ll get worse (he did his “worse than we ever expected” line again today).
It’s a budget for growth, but infrastructure projects canned when Reeves found her “black hole”.
It’s for working people, but we don’t know who they really are.
It’s not austerity but there’ll be spending cuts.
They are also absolutely useless at explaining what the end goal is. What is Starmer’s ideal Britain? All I hear is something that is a little bit less rubbish than before. I get not wanting to look like you’re under delivering but come on.
"He's been suspended. There's an ongoing police investigation. I won't comment on that investigation."
"Can he remain an MP?"
I'm surprised that Today didn't use her for the piece on modern slavery.
Since that's probably over half the UK he's probably right in that they will not immediately notice much difference. Except on fuel duty or the end of the £2 flat fare bus fee, so commuting costs likely to rise substantially.
But if you have any ambition, are a saver, an investor, or a higher income earner - anyone over 50k - expect to get clobbered.
And with regards the Employer's NI rise, one good comment on the FT today (not me, I promise), states: raising tax on alcohol reduces alcohol consumption, tax on smoking reduces smoking. What does raising tax on employment do?
The winners here are going to be anyone who works in the public sector. This budget will rebalance the economy away from private sector jobs towards public sector ones - it's that simple.
It might be a recipe for improving public services like the NHS (or the money might all end up spaffed up the wall on middle managers as it usually does). But it will certainly be harmful to the private sector, and, ultimately, growth.
Back to the 70s - tax the private sector and private individuals until the pips squeak, redistribute the wealth through the public sector. Wonder why the economy isn't growing.
Sort of thing that really should be announced in Parliament....
You are living in a parallel world. A nation that has military grade arms widely in the hands of the population, but didnt seem to figure in the actual event.
Absurd nonsense. It got out of hand, in the same was as the marches that ended up with the hostels set alight here. It was not some make or break attempt to bring down the system, a crowd cajoled along at the hands of some hot heads.
There was no strategic planning of the event.
https://www.thetimes.com
I think we can agree on that.
They don’t know what they’re doing.
The Jan 6 insurrectionists came with their own armed miliitia, in groups such as the Proud Boys and others. The leader of that group received 22 years in prison for his activities,
2-3 months before Trump had told them "Proud Boys, Stand Back and Stand By".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54352635
"root out the Communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, that lie and steal and cheat on elections"
"Free the January 6 Hostages being wrongfully imprisoned!" (shades of Potempa).
“Human Scum that is working so hard to destroy our Once Great Country.”
“Kamala [Harris] has imported an army of illegal alien gang members and migrant criminals from the dungeons of the third world … from prisons and jails and insane asylums and mental institutions, and she has had them resettled beautifully into your community to prey upon innocent American citizens"
“How about allowing people to come to an open border, 13,000 of which were murderers, many of them murdered far more than one person, and they’re now happily living in the United States. You know now a murder, I believe this, it’s in their genes. And we got a lot of bad genes in our country right now"
“they’re poisoning the blood of our country.”
"They're eating the dogs; they're eating the cats; they're eating the pets of the people who live there."
All of this would be recognisable to anyone living in the 1930's.
That's what I'm expecting.
They should ask him if working people have a penis.
Hangovers aren't supposed to be fun. That we got the hangover at a really rubbish party doesn't change that.
@WildernessPt2 has his head in the clouds.
https://www.justsecurity.org/103956/proud-boys-threat-assessment/
https://www.axios.com/2024/10/25/how-long-states-called-election
Give Van Nistelroy a run at it. No hurry to hire yet another "great manager at x but doesn't fit United" candidate.
It's more Kapp Putsch, than the overthrow of Ceaucescu.
He's hilariously out of his depth.
This was not a military coup. Nor does a coup have to be military to be a coup.
This was a constitutional coup. A specific plot to throw out the election result by submitting pro-Trump electors who they knew to be fraudulent, for the specific reason of getting the Electoral College set aside so that the GOP could simply elect him in Congress.
The armed insurrection was the result of the imminent failure of the coup attempt, where Trump hoped to force the hand of Pence and make him follow the plan at the last minute.
No strategic planning? You're discounting the evidence - submitted by the Trump team - because you don't like the findings. Like a man shaking his fist at the moon...
Jenrick had previously said he preferred Trump
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Kingdom#Vital_statistics_(1900–2023)
Also means the UK has now fallen below Austria, Canada, Germany, Poland and Russia, Hungary, Norway and Switzerland and Uruguay in terms of our fertility rate. Though we are still ahead of Finland, Italy for now, Jamaica, Ukraine, Malta, Bosnia, Japan, Spain, China, Thailand and South Korea and Singapore.
Ireland and France on 1.8 and Israel on 2.9 the only nations in the western world with a reasonably healthy fertility rate. Israel probably now has even more children than it needs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate
Harris 48% (=)
Trump 48% (=)
So all comes down to the swing states even if Trump narrowly wins the popular vote this time
Owen Winter
@OwenWntr
Harris+1.4 in today's poll tracker update. Once again, her smallest lead of the cycle so far https://economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-harris-polls
https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/1850859115746144635
Jenrick was Housing Minister from 24 July 2019 – 15 September 2021.
In 2020 Housebuilding completions cratered from 210k in 2019 to 170k, with a recovery back to 210k in 2021, after a 7 year trend of growth, which he did not maintain.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/746101/completion-of-new-dwellings-uk/
TBF, this was Covid time so I'm not sure if any conclusions are valid.
On Desmond's Westferry scheme, afaics Jenrick's incompetence at being corrupt and his attempt to interfere to benefit Desmond having failed, the scheme approved later substantially benefited Tower Hamlets over the 2020 scheme - for example in the percentage of affordable housing. I think it's 28% vs 21%, but I have not seen a full technical comparison.
https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/westferry-printworks-scheme-to-go-back-in-front-of-planners-after-jenrick-controversy-69059
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
I am under no illusion, life under the previous 14 years of Conservative government was far from aspirational. It was a grind, with most people feeling poorer and opportunities few and far between.
But rather than bringing back the politics of aspiration, Labour under Starmer and Reeves look set to choose the path of big government, tax and spend, redistributive policies (by which I largely mean redistributing from the private sector to the state).
That fits plausibly with a definition of a working person as someone who lives hand to mouth. It completely ignores the idea that a working person might ever aspire to be anything more. Where are the opportunities to get ahead in Starmer's Britain?
In my view it's less the middle aged millionaires buggering off we have to worry about - although that will happen - it's the twenty-somethings who feel there are no opportunities to get ahead in life, who will leave.
"@PolitlcsUK
🚨 NEW: Labour MPs Diane Abbott, Clive Lewis and Bell Ribeiro-Addy have accused Keir Starmer of having a 'colonial mindset' over his relutance to discuss reparations for slave trade"
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1850622834352984475
"Overall, 14% are favourable towards Donald Trump and 71% are unfavourable, including 83% of 2019 Labour voters, 83% of Remain voters, two-thirds of 2019 Conservative voters (67%) and 65% of Leave voters."
After serving a couple of years in senior positions under Trump and no longer giving a toss about Trump patronage, General Kelly says Trump praised Hitler and says he wishes he had generals like those of Hitler.
Who to believe?!
However I think we might have a rough idea the day after. IIRC it was pretty likely Biden was the winner at that point in 2020, just based on where was left to report and the state of the returns so far. If the polls are right and everything actually is on a knife edge and comes down to a few thousand votes, there could be a bigger delay.
I am not looking forward to the interminable drip-drip of results over the following days. I think it was Nevada and Georgia in particular in 2020 that just took forever.
It's only the 4th time in my adult life that there's been a change of governement budget.
(*I fear I will be rather disappointed.)
So it's going to be a week of watching paint dry and that's if the voting isn't stupidly close...
@RonBrownstein
·
40m
I'm not sure people are grasping the full implication of what he's saying here: that to avoid family separation in mass deportation, Trump would also remove millions of US citizen children-a prospect that takes his deportation plan much deeper into the realm of ethnic cleansing
https://x.com/RonBrownstein/status/1850876519171903574
https://www.money.co.uk/savings-accounts/savings-statistics
He may be rubbish at expressing it, but Starmer has a point.
Here you are, @TSE .
It also applies to your earlier post.
Erik Ten Hag sacked.
You risk waking up having missed all that.
OTOH, it might stop one making stupid mistakes.
All it's achieved is months of sub-optimal headlines and to make people increasingly worried and anxious.
I suspect it's got the point where even if the budget isn't half as bad as the pre-budget build up, the public will still think it is as everyone is in such a downbeat mindset.
https://twitter.com/Agitate4Change/status/1850657186533294562
It's time for Big Sam Allardyce.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jas_Athwal#As_a_landlord