You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
You may well be right, it does seem to be moving that way as more figures on the left, and not the batshit Zarah Sultana types, are coming round to it.
Anyone raising any objections to this utter lunacy will be deemed to be ‘racist’ too.
Tho I do believe musk’s prediction would come true before we shelled out cash. Britain will either elect a fascist government or we will be consumed in civil strife
You're a loon today.
Yes of course dear
That’s why the idea of fascists winning elections in Europe is so insane it….
The biggest single threat to our finances is Trump's tariff policy. If he's genuinely serious about it (hard to tell, obviously), then it would almost certainly precipitate a world recession.
With our levels of debt, that could be catastrophic for us.
The biggest single threat to our finances is Trump's tariff policy. If he's genuinely serious about it (hard to tell, obviously), then it would almost certainly precipitate a world recession.
With our levels of debt, that could be catastrophic for us.
I suppose youll be forecasting Trump starts world war 3 next week.
Mr. Sandpit, waiting for things to get going but something I'll be looking at are the odds on Leclerc to win. Slipstream could be very tasty here, to the detriment of Sainz and benefit of Leclerc.
I have been on a bus 4x this year. That is a record in recent decades. Each time I was going to St Andrews or returning after a truly exceptional meal. Unfortunately for this thread I have to report that all of the buses were single deckers so the point was moot.
Next!
Though there was that time after a particularly bibulous dinner when you tried to get up to the top deck.
I’ve now gotten over the total hideousness of the towns and cities and the sense of gentle stagnation
It remains maybe the most dazzling cultural destination on earth - for a westerner. The place most compellingly different and unlike us; yet just as sophisticated - in some ways more so
And it’s so bloody cheap. And the food is so bloody good
I have been on a bus 4x this year. That is a record in recent decades. Each time I was going to St Andrews or returning after a truly exceptional meal. Unfortunately for this thread I have to report that all of the buses were single deckers so the point was moot.
Next!
Though there was that time after a particularly bibulous dinner when you tried to get up to the top deck.
Mr. Eabhal, why is it deranged to wonder if Starmer will sign us up, insanely, for reparations when he's signed a document promising to to discuss 'reparative justice' or suchlike?
Because it's like wondering if Trump will end democracy in the US if elected in November.
Indeed, I think the Trump scenario is more likely, given he's actually talked about it. Starmer has made no such noises about reparations - indeed, much of the tension at the Commonwealth summit was because he was pushing back on the idea.
I've just read The Butcher of the Forest on your recommendation. Thanks - I agree it is quite startlingly original, and very enjoyable. In some ways it reminded me of The Vorrh but I think is both simpler and more effectively narrated than that was.
I think Leon has struck a seam of gold here. A subject that whips his adoring fans into a frenzy. This could be the theme of PB all the way to the next election.
I'm not complaining, it could be far worse. We could suffer endless posts of photographs from his holidays.
You still smarting from him giving you a verbal shoeing on here the other day ?
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
You may well be right, it does seem to be moving that way as more figures on the left, and not the batshit Zarah Sultana types, are coming round to it.
Anyone raising any objections to this utter lunacy will be deemed to be ‘racist’ too.
Tho I do believe musk’s prediction would come true before we shelled out cash. Britain will either elect a fascist government or we will be consumed in civil strife
I think I've discovered today's Russian bot. The giveaway are always those proper nouns without capital letters. "Musk".
The biggest single threat to our finances is Trump's tariff policy. If he's genuinely serious about it (hard to tell, obviously), then it would almost certainly precipitate a world recession.
With our levels of debt, that could be catastrophic for us.
Yep. Labour could be one term just thanks to Trump 2.0 no matter what they do.
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
You may well be right, it does seem to be moving that way as more figures on the left, and not the batshit Zarah Sultana types, are coming round to it.
Anyone raising any objections to this utter lunacy will be deemed to be ‘racist’ too.
I mentioned yesterday that Starmerism is drifting in to a combination of
a) Some elements of corbynism (ie this reparations stuff) b) Austerity c) Authoritianism.
All three are open goals for the opposition, if they can work out how to capitalise on them.
The biggest single threat to our finances is Trump's tariff policy. If he's genuinely serious about it (hard to tell, obviously), then it would almost certainly precipitate a world recession.
With our levels of debt, that could be catastrophic for us.
Depression not recession.
This cannot be stressed enough. I’ve been banging on about it for many weeks now. It’s a very real risk.
Harris is a terrible candidate but she wouldn’t be a disaster for the global economy. Trump would.
The biggest single threat to our finances is Trump's tariff policy. If he's genuinely serious about it (hard to tell, obviously), then it would almost certainly precipitate a world recession.
With our levels of debt, that could be catastrophic for us.
I suppose youll be forecasting Trump starts world war 3 next week.
No that's pencilled in for January 21st, once the biggest ever inauguration crowds disperse.
Mr. Eabhal, Starmer's judgement is such he's ceded strategically important territory while at the same time promising to pay for its infrastructure to be improved.
He's signed up to a document promising debate on 'reparative justice'. So far, his judgement is atrocious and his backbone utterly absent. Signing us up for reparations would be so monumentally craven it might not happen, but it is a credible possibility from Starmer.
I’ve now gotten over the total hideousness of the towns and cities and the sense of gentle stagnation
It remains maybe the most dazzling cultural destination on earth - for a westerner. The place most compellingly different and unlike us; yet just as sophisticated - in some ways more so
And it’s so bloody cheap. And the food is so bloody good
Nippon is BACK! Though I sense you’re only an instance of Japan bowing to Western Woke away from it leaving again.
The biggest single threat to our finances is Trump's tariff policy. If he's genuinely serious about it (hard to tell, obviously), then it would almost certainly precipitate a world recession.
With our levels of debt, that could be catastrophic for us.
I suppose youll be forecasting Trump starts world war 3 next week.
Do you think his tariffs are economically sensible ?
The other reason to root for a Trump victory is the pure entertainment value of watching the Labour party try and deal with it. They will surely have a total meltdown at the idea of any diplomatic contact, state visits etc.
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
You may well be right, it does seem to be moving that way as more figures on the left, and not the batshit Zarah Sultana types, are coming round to it.
Anyone raising any objections to this utter lunacy will be deemed to be ‘racist’ too.
Tho I do believe musk’s prediction would come true before we shelled out cash. Britain will either elect a fascist government or we will be consumed in civil strife
You're a loon today.
Yes of course dear
That’s why the idea of fascists winning elections in Europe is so insane it….
Oh
I'm not saying it's impossible. It's your "either or" characterisation that's nuts - along with your inability to twig that.
I’ve now gotten over the total hideousness of the towns and cities and the sense of gentle stagnation
It remains maybe the most dazzling cultural destination on earth - for a westerner. The place most compellingly different and unlike us; yet just as sophisticated - in some ways more so
And it’s so bloody cheap. And the food is so bloody good
I cycled through Japan from Nagano to Okinawa a few years ago (obviously taking some ferries along the way).
Amongst many other delights, I have never known anywhere where I have been treated more kindly by strangers. Too many stories to relate (including being allowed to drive a ferry whilst eating the captain's own breakfast) but one sticks out:
We had been told we could camp in the grounds of temples, or which there are many thousands. After our first day of cycling we stopped in a small village. It had been raining all day, and was still raining. The grounds of the little temple were waterlogged so we were a bit depressed as we unpacked our tent.
An old Japanese lady drove past, gesturing furiously at us and saying 'housu' repeatedly. Assuming she didn't like us camping (but too tired and wet to do anything else) we studiously ignored her. She was so persistent, though, that we wondered if she meant there was a hotel nearby. So we followed her car around a couple of corners.
She turned into the driveway of a beautiful traditional Japanese house (ornamental garden, sliding paper walls etc) and proceeded to invite us in to what turned out to be her own home.
What followed was a traditional Japanese dinner and breakfast, a futon laid out in their sitting room for us to sleep on, a traditional Japanese bath (we had to be spotlessly clean even before getting in) and a packed lunch the next day. All whilst refusing any payment, and without a single word of shared language.
As an experience, I'm not sure I have ever beaten or (or ever will).
The other reason to root for a Trump victory is the pure entertainment value of watching the Labour party try and deal with it. They will surely have a total meltdown at the idea of any diplomatic contact, state visits etc.
If Trump wins the best outcome is that he invades, quite frankly
A bit like Russia reclaiming its true motherland in Ukraine. I will be fighting for Trump of course
The other reason to root for a Trump victory is the pure entertainment value of watching the Labour party try and deal with it. They will surely have a total meltdown at the idea of any diplomatic contact, state visits etc.
If Trump wins the best outcome is that he invades, quite frankly
A bit like Russia reclaiming its true motherland in Ukraine. I will be fighting for Trump of course
I hope that as we meet on the battlefield on opposing sides we can salute one another before drawing swords.
Mr. Eabhal, Starmer's judgement is such he's ceded strategically important territory while at the same time promising to pay for its infrastructure to be improved.
He's signed up to a document promising debate on 'reparative justice'. So far, his judgement is atrocious and his backbone utterly absent. Signing us up for reparations would be so monumentally craven it might not happen, but it is a credible possibility from Starmer.
I don't disagree on Diego Garcia, but he's just carried forward Tory policy - where was the outrage then?
Therew would be no debate on reparations if Starmer had signed up to doing it! It's a diplomatic way to say "no". What would you have him do - put his hands over his ears, sing Rule Britannia and dissolve the Commonwealth?
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there wont be an election in 2028. Or at least there wont be an election in which Trump doesn't receive 98% of the vote.
How is he going to do that unless 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 the states support him changing the constutution to allow for a third term as required for constitutional amendments? Or the military back making him a dictator?
He and his Cult will find a way.
I suspect by threatening every single elected person in Congress and the individual states with political violence if they don't do what the Cult want.
We've just yesterday seen Bezos fold without even a direct threat.
Much of that technique is in Project 2025. Trump has stated that he will use Victorian era laws of various types to sideline or destroy civil authority, and - for example - these would allow him aiui to have a sort of valid looking use of the military within the USA to enforce his will.
He already has a corrupted Supreme Court that would rewrite the Constitution by bizarre interpretation to give him cover, as they have already done in the matter of Presidential Immunity.
He doesn't care about the consequences for anybody other than himself.
He would try and deal with the Federal Indictments against him by appointing a corrupt patsy as Attorney General - Aileen Cannon is on his list - who will just sack the Special Prosecutor.
Nixon tried to make his AG do that to get rid of the investigation into him, and his AG said "no can do" and resigned, then Nixon tried it with the Deputy AG, who also resigned. Then the third in line bowed to his will.
Another example is the intention to increase the number of posts regarded as "political" by about 10x, which means that as an incoming administration he can immediately sack 10s or 100s of thousand of civil service officers and replace them with MAGA-placemen/women.
One which has not really broken into the news widely yet is Scotus decisions which undermine the mechanism of federal regulation, that is the Federal USA version of UK bodies such as the Health and Safety Executive. That will create a community and industrial safety wild-west.
Obviously abortion is another one, where women have already died in numbers due to Doctors not being able to treat them because of legal liabilities imposed by Red States. But we are well aware of that.
If Trump gets in, the US is going down a very dark hole indeed, already thanks to Scotus decisions having started the journey.
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there is no election in 2028.
Sorry. Beaten to it by Rottenborough
This all rather silly talk, of course there will be an election in 2028. But Harris won’t be in it because this loss will be pinned on her being a bad candidate. She isn’t great, but it’s actually fact voters felt better off under the Trump presidency whats won it for him. And this White House dropped the ball on the immigration issue, which Harris does own.
I don’t think we yet have a party anywhere in for the cost of living squeeze, who have survived re-election? Not even the Poles, who seemed very entrenched before the credit squeeze.
Trump won’t be a candidate in 2028 either, and I’m pretty sure he won’t last the 4 years of this term with old age clearly impacting him now - so President Vance is now a certainty to happen, if that is still a juicy looking betting opportunity.
There are a few factors which I'm not sure are being taken fully into account: Roe v Wade (Dobbs) - there are 10 States where measures to protect abortion rights on the ballot. This may drive a higher turnout of those in favour, who will be mainly Democrat. There are more women voters than men, they vote at a higher rate and they favour Democrats Nikki Haley voters - Republican voters chose to vote for Haley in the primaries even when she had dropped out will split, some for Harris. Early voting is way up on what is usual, this may help Democrats. The Republican trick of releasing many more partisan polls as the election approaches helps their party look better in the poll aggregators. They tried this in 2022 and it worked - remember the Red Wave - until the results showed only a red trickle. See also Polymarket, skewed by a French person betting $45m on Trump victory. Are the polls right? They could be, within the margin of error, but still either candidate could win in a landside. Haley has more money, but Trump has 'X' and Musk, which will be more important?
Mr. Eabhal, Starmer's judgement is such he's ceded strategically important territory while at the same time promising to pay for its infrastructure to be improved.
He's signed up to a document promising debate on 'reparative justice'. So far, his judgement is atrocious and his backbone utterly absent. Signing us up for reparations would be so monumentally craven it might not happen, but it is a credible possibility from Starmer.
I don't disagree on Diego Garcia, but he's just carried forward Tory policy - where was the outrage then?
Therew would be no debate on reparations if Starmer had signed up to doing it! It's a diplomatic way to say "no". What would you have him do - put his hands over his ears, sing Rule Britannia and dissolve the Commonwealth?
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there wont be an election in 2028. Or at least there wont be an election in which Trump doesn't receive 98% of the vote.
How is he going to do that unless 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 the states support him changing the constutution to allow for a third term as required for constitutional amendments? Or the military back making him a dictator?
He and his Cult will find a way.
I suspect by threatening every single elected person in Congress and the individual states with political violence if they don't do what the Cult want.
We've just yesterday seen Bezos fold without even a direct threat.
Much of that technique is in Project 2025. Trump has stated that he will use Victorian era laws of various types to sideline or destroy civil authority, and - for example - these would allow him aiui to have a sort of valid looking use of the military within the USA to enforce his will.
He already has a corrupted Supreme Court that would rewrite the Constitution by bizarre interpretation to give him cover, as they have already done in the matter of Presidential Immunity.
He doesn't care about the consequences for anybody other than himself.
He would try and deal with the Federal Indictments against him by appointing a corrupt patsy as Attorney General - Aileen Cannon is on his list - who will just sack the Special Prosecutor.
Nixon tried to make his AG do that to get rid of the investigation into him, and his AG said "no can do" and resigned, then Nixon tried it with the Deputy AG, who also resigned. Then the third in line bowed to his will.
Another example is the intention to increase the number of posts regarded as "political" by about 10x, which means that as an incoming administration he can immediately sack 10s or 100s of thousand of civil service officers and replace them with MAGA-placemen/women.
One which has not really broken into the news widely yet is Scotus decisions which undermine the mechanism of federal regulation, that is the Federal USA version of UK bodies such as the Health and Safety Executive. That will create a community and industrial safety wild-west.
Obviously abortion is another one, where women have already died in numbers due to Doctors not being able to treat them because of legal liabilities imposed by Red States. But we are well aware of that.
If Trump gets in, the US is going down a very dark hole indeed, already thanks to Scotus decisions having started the journey.
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
Get a grip
Starmer derangement syndrome. Even worse than the Miliband variety.
Where near as bad as Motorist Derangment Syndrome. That’s pretty much as bad as it gets.
It's only a small minority who become deranged as soon as they get behind the wheel of a car though.
It is a long time – back to Mrs Thatcher’s day – since a British politician spoke with such sincere passion about the virtues of our country. Such virtues are the only sound moral basis on which our society can successfully proceed. With luck, the Conservatives are about to acquire a leader who understands that, and will act accordingly.
Mr. Eabhal, Starmer's judgement is such he's ceded strategically important territory while at the same time promising to pay for its infrastructure to be improved.
He's signed up to a document promising debate on 'reparative justice'. So far, his judgement is atrocious and his backbone utterly absent. Signing us up for reparations would be so monumentally craven it might not happen, but it is a credible possibility from Starmer.
I don't disagree on Diego Garcia, but he's just carried forward Tory policy - where was the outrage then?
Therew would be no debate on reparations if Starmer had signed up to doing it! It's a diplomatic way to say "no". What would you have him do - put his hands over his ears, sing Rule Britannia and dissolve the Commonwealth?
I'm somewhat in the middle on this one.
I agree the legacy and effects of slavery need to be addressed. However attempts to do this by a sole UK focus and demand for "cash - now!" are an unapologetic guilt-driven mugging by contemporary politicians. And such would get fully or partly pissed away on corruption and golden cows.
It needs something far more like a sovereign wealth fund devoted to development over decades or centuries.
The model the Church Commissioners are using on this is one reasonable (I suggest) way of addressing it; they agreed to put up about 1% of their assets (£100m) into a fund a number of years ago, and commissioned research looking for what they should be looking at given that part basis of their assets 2 or 3 centuries ago were slavery linked.
The research said this is not enough. So they will develop it over time and invite others (such as HNW individuals whose fortunes have come all or part from slavery linked businesses) to join their institutional structure. Importantly, they are moving cautiously and sustainably.
Georgian Dream have fairly clearly stolen yesterday’s election result, in a style reminiscent of Belarus.
Aside from the copious video evidence of ballot stuffing, voter and observer intimidation, double voting and the other usual tricks of the trade, this chart looks pretty compelling:
It also suggests GD only started cheating at elections this time and were winning fair and square previously.
The opposition parties are not recognising the result. Expect major protests, and a crack down. Also expect plenty of labelling of these protests as a CIA-based colour revolution aimed at destabilising the country. Russian media is already doing so. As, it seems, are quite a lot of right wing US commentators.
I’ve now gotten over the total hideousness of the towns and cities and the sense of gentle stagnation
It remains maybe the most dazzling cultural destination on earth - for a westerner. The place most compellingly different and unlike us; yet just as sophisticated - in some ways more so
And it’s so bloody cheap. And the food is so bloody good
I cycled through Japan from Nagano to Okinawa a few years ago (obviously taking some ferries along the way).
Amongst many other delights, I have never known anywhere where I have been treated more kindly by strangers. Too many stories to relate (including being allowed to drive a ferry whilst eating the captain's own breakfast) but one sticks out:
We had been told we could camp in the grounds of temples, or which there are many thousands. After our first day of cycling we stopped in a small village. It had been raining all day, and was still raining. The grounds of the little temple were waterlogged so we were a bit depressed as we unpacked our tent.
An old Japanese lady drove past, gesturing furiously at us and saying 'housu' repeatedly. Assuming she didn't like us camping (but too tired and wet to do anything else) we studiously ignored her. She was so persistent, though, that we wondered if she meant there was a hotel nearby. So we followed her car around a couple of corners.
She turned into the driveway of a beautiful traditional Japanese house (ornamental garden, sliding paper walls etc) and proceeded to invite us in to what turned out to be her own home.
What followed was a traditional Japanese dinner and breakfast, a futon laid out in their sitting room for us to sleep on, a traditional Japanese bath (we had to be spotlessly clean even before getting in) and a packed lunch the next day. All whilst refusing any payment, and without a single word of shared language.
As an experience, I'm not sure I have ever beaten or (or ever will).
People often incredibly hospitable to people doing long-distance cycle tours and hikes. I occasionally pick up hitch hikers on the West Highland Way (usually injured or during horrible weather) and the feeling of self-worth you get after you drop them off is unbeatable.
Farmers tend to be more than happy for you to camp out in a field as long as you ask them nicely.
The other reason to root for a Trump victory is the pure entertainment value of watching the Labour party try and deal with it. They will surely have a total meltdown at the idea of any diplomatic contact, state visits etc.
If Trump wins the best outcome is that he invades, quite frankly
A bit like Russia reclaiming its true motherland in Ukraine. I will be fighting for Trump of course
I hope that as we meet on the battlefield on opposing sides we can salute one another before drawing swords.
I’ve now gotten over the total hideousness of the towns and cities and the sense of gentle stagnation
It remains maybe the most dazzling cultural destination on earth - for a westerner. The place most compellingly different and unlike us; yet just as sophisticated - in some ways more so
And it’s so bloody cheap. And the food is so bloody good
I cycled through Japan from Nagano to Okinawa a few years ago (obviously taking some ferries along the way).
Amongst many other delights, I have never known anywhere where I have been treated more kindly by strangers. Too many stories to relate (including being allowed to drive a ferry whilst eating the captain's own breakfast) but one sticks out:
We had been told we could camp in the grounds of temples, or which there are many thousands. After our first day of cycling we stopped in a small village. It had been raining all day, and was still raining. The grounds of the little temple were waterlogged so we were a bit depressed as we unpacked our tent.
An old Japanese lady drove past, gesturing furiously at us and saying 'housu' repeatedly. Assuming she didn't like us camping (but too tired and wet to do anything else) we studiously ignored her. She was so persistent, though, that we wondered if she meant there was a hotel nearby. So we followed her car around a couple of corners.
She turned into the driveway of a beautiful traditional Japanese house (ornamental garden, sliding paper walls etc) and proceeded to invite us in to what turned out to be her own home.
What followed was a traditional Japanese dinner and breakfast, a futon laid out in their sitting room for us to sleep on, a traditional Japanese bath (we had to be spotlessly clean even before getting in) and a packed lunch the next day. All whilst refusing any payment, and without a single word of shared language.
As an experience, I'm not sure I have ever beaten or (or ever will).
They are absolutely brilliant people. Also funny if they’ve had a few drinks and feel relaxed
And their culture!
Today I learned that seppuku wasn’t merely a flamboyant and dramatic way to top yourself, it is also designed to be the most painful way you can kill yourself with a blade - drawing it laterally across the abdomen so you self-disembowel - apparently the pain is about as bad it gets (I dunno how they know but that’s what they say)
By inflicting this on yourself you show even more honour and courage. Personally I thing ritualised suicide by itself shows impressive levels of commitment - but the Japs add extra tons of agony
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there wont be an election in 2028. Or at least there wont be an election in which Trump doesn't receive 98% of the vote.
How is he going to do that unless 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 the states support him changing the constutution to allow for a third term as required for constitutional amendments? Or the military back making him a dictator?
He and his Cult will find a way.
I suspect by threatening every single elected person in Congress and the individual states with political violence if they don't do what the Cult want.
We've just yesterday seen Bezos fold without even a direct threat.
Much of that technique is in Project 2025. Trump has stated that he will use Victorian era laws of various types to sideline or destroy civil authority, and - for example - these would allow him aiui to have a sort of valid looking use of the military within the USA to enforce his will.
He already has a corrupted Supreme Court that would rewrite the Constitution by bizarre interpretation to give him cover, as they have already done in the matter of Presidential Immunity.
He doesn't care about the consequences for anybody other than himself.
He would try and deal with the Federal Indictments against him by appointing a corrupt patsy as Attorney General - Aileen Cannon is on his list - who will just sack the Special Prosecutor.
Nixon tried to make his AG do that to get rid of the investigation into him, and his AG said "no can do" and resigned, then Nixon tried it with the Deputy AG, who also resigned. Then the third in line bowed to his will.
Another example is the intention to increase the number of posts regarded as "political" by about 10x, which means that as an incoming administration he can immediately sack 10s or 100s of thousand of civil service officers and replace them with MAGA-placemen/women.
One which has not really broken into the news widely yet is Scotus decisions which undermine the mechanism of federal regulation, that is the Federal USA version of UK bodies such as the Health and Safety Executive. That will create a community and industrial safety wild-west.
Obviously abortion is another one, where women have already died in numbers due to Doctors not being able to treat them because of legal liabilities imposed by Red States. But we are well aware of that.
If Trump gets in, the US is going down a very dark hole indeed, already thanks to Scotus decisions having started the journey.
It sounds mad - and the experience of his first administration suggests nothing of the sort.
But then you compare where the Republican party is today, compared with eight years ago, and consider the team which will make up his administration, compared to the group of mainly old style Washington insiders back then.
The Democratic states would push back - and possibly the House, though if the polls are wrong in Trump's rather than Harris's favour, then that might go too.
There are certainly far fewer checks and balances, compared with 2016.
Bloody hell, I know 24/7 royal PR is SOP for the Beeb, but it’s in fawning overdrive today. The doctors are looking after Chuck’s physical health but it’s his sense of duty that is keeping his mind and spirit in fine fettle apparently. It seems that we need to know this at the top of every news bulletin, on the hour.
Mr. Eabhal, Starmer's judgement is such he's ceded strategically important territory while at the same time promising to pay for its infrastructure to be improved.
He's signed up to a document promising debate on 'reparative justice'. So far, his judgement is atrocious and his backbone utterly absent. Signing us up for reparations would be so monumentally craven it might not happen, but it is a credible possibility from Starmer.
Why are so many people on here are hysterical this morning. When has Starmer said anything other than "No cash reparations"? He made a tactical error by saying in advance that he didn't want to talk about it. Sunak did the same thing by saying I'm advance that he didn't want to talk about the Elgin Marbles with the Greek PM. Starmer has done what he should have done in the first place which is to agree to a vague discussion that doesn't commit him to anything beyond platitudes. It doesn't mean he's suddenly going to pay 2000% of our GDPR to our former coloniesm
How does the UK break out of this doom loop cycle of PMs leading governments which are indifferent at best and damagingly self-destructive at worst?
I’ve just read the latest on the tit for tat electronic registration scheme - to counter the EU scheme imposed on us we will impose one on them. And thus finally kill the practical ability of educational trips across the channel. My party has pointed out that free movement of school children is hardly threatening to Brexit even if Keith Donkey still needs to kowtow to the remaining declining few who think a Brexit is worth having. But no, Donkey refuses to engage.
What are we about any more, as a country? What are we for? What’s our direction of travel? Other than an inert lump drifting into obscurity?
The biggest single threat to our finances is Trump's tariff policy. If he's genuinely serious about it (hard to tell, obviously), then it would almost certainly precipitate a world recession.
With our levels of debt, that could be catastrophic for us.
The 60% tariff on China wouldn't by itself precipitate a world recession.
The 10% tariff on the rest of the world might, but there's no chance he could get it through the Senate and I doubt he'd be able to use the President's national security exception to enact it on his own.
A serious world recession wouldn't necessarily be directly catastrophic for us with our levels of debt because it's borrowed and serviced in our own currency. We can always print more (or "use quantitative easing" as it's called these days). It WOULD probably split the euro area apart, especially if the Germans finally refused to let the ECB bail out the others. Of course in the long term that would greatly benefit the member states, who would be able to have independent economic policies again, but in the short term many of them would suffer greatly.
On topic, surely a bus is what you get only when you can’t find a taxi, and a taxi is what you get only when you’ve given your driver the night off?
I once had a contact from the Irish Senate tell me that he understood the problems with public transport - he’d fired his pilot and his helicopter was in for repairs so he’d had to fly BA…
I have been on a bus 4x this year. That is a record in recent decades. Each time I was going to St Andrews or returning after a truly exceptional meal. Unfortunately for this thread I have to report that all of the buses were single deckers so the point was moot.
Next!
Though there was that time after a particularly bibulous dinner when you tried to get up to the top deck.
How does the UK break out of this doom loop cycle of PMs leading governments which are indifferent at best and damagingly self-destructive at worst?
I’ve just read the latest on the tit for tat electronic registration scheme - to counter the EU scheme imposed on us we will impose one on them. And thus finally kill the practical ability of educational trips across the channel. My party has pointed out that free movement of school children is hardly threatening to Brexit even if Keith Donkey still needs to kowtow to the remaining declining few who think a Brexit is worth having. But no, Donkey refuses to engage.
What are we about any more, as a country? What are we for? What’s our direction of travel? Other than an inert lump drifting into obscurity?
Reeves is making some bold noises about the budget. I was predicting some tinkering around the edges, small print adjustments on CGT etc - but this suggests otherwise.
Mr. Eabhal, Starmer's judgement is such he's ceded strategically important territory while at the same time promising to pay for its infrastructure to be improved.
He's signed up to a document promising debate on 'reparative justice'. So far, his judgement is atrocious and his backbone utterly absent. Signing us up for reparations would be so monumentally craven it might not happen, but it is a credible possibility from Starmer.
I don't disagree on Diego Garcia, but he's just carried forward Tory policy - where was the outrage then?
Therew would be no debate on reparations if Starmer had signed up to doing it! It's a diplomatic way to say "no". What would you have him do - put his hands over his ears, sing Rule Britannia and dissolve the Commonwealth?
Tory policy was to talk to Mauritius. That’s not the same as Starmer’s deal.
You complain about false equivalence when Trump’s acolytes do it…
(Autocorrect turned “deal” to “seal”. How is @DougSeal - haven’t seen him on here for ages)
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
You may well be right, it does seem to be moving that way as more figures on the left, and not the batshit Zarah Sultana types, are coming round to it.
Anyone raising any objections to this utter lunacy will be deemed to be ‘racist’ too.
Tho I do believe musk’s prediction would come true before we shelled out cash. Britain will either elect a fascist government or we will be consumed in civil strife
I've read Turchin and his predictions of civil war, but I have to point out that a nation with 20-25% of its population being over 65 will not have a civil war. Old people don't fight.
I think Leon has struck a seam of gold here. A subject that whips his adoring fans into a frenzy. This could be the theme of PB all the way to the next election.
I'm not complaining, it could be far worse. We could suffer endless posts of photographs from his holidays.
You still smarting from him giving you a verbal shoeing on here the other day ?
Let it go mate, life’s too short.
Can you remind me of that one, or were there several I should be aware of?
Comments
That’s why the idea of fascists winning elections in Europe is so insane it….
Oh
With our levels of debt, that could be catastrophic for us.
I’ve now gotten over the total hideousness of the towns and cities and the sense of gentle stagnation
It remains maybe the most dazzling cultural destination on earth - for a westerner. The place most compellingly different and unlike us; yet just as sophisticated - in some ways more so
And it’s so bloody cheap. And the food is so bloody good
How would those numbers look if a Tory government was proposing the fare cap removal?
Indeed, I think the Trump scenario is more likely, given he's actually talked about it. Starmer has made no such noises about reparations - indeed, much of the tension at the Commonwealth summit was because he was pushing back on the idea.
I've just read The Butcher of the Forest on your recommendation. Thanks - I agree it is quite startlingly original, and very enjoyable. In some ways it reminded me of The Vorrh but I think is both simpler and more effectively narrated than that was.
Let it go mate, life’s too short.
a) Some elements of corbynism (ie this reparations stuff)
b) Austerity
c) Authoritianism.
All three are open goals for the opposition, if they can work out how to capitalise on them.
This cannot be stressed enough. I’ve been banging on about it for many weeks now. It’s a very real risk.
Harris is a terrible candidate but she wouldn’t be a disaster for the global economy. Trump would.
He's signed up to a document promising debate on 'reparative justice'. So far, his judgement is atrocious and his backbone utterly absent. Signing us up for reparations would be so monumentally craven it might not happen, but it is a credible possibility from Starmer.
Though I sense you’re only an instance of Japan bowing to Western Woke away from it leaving again.
It's your "either or" characterisation that's nuts - along with your inability to twig that.
Amongst many other delights, I have never known anywhere where I have been treated more kindly by strangers. Too many stories to relate (including being allowed to drive a ferry whilst eating the captain's own breakfast) but one sticks out:
We had been told we could camp in the grounds of temples, or which there are many thousands. After our first day of cycling we stopped in a small village. It had been raining all day, and was still raining. The grounds of the little temple were waterlogged so we were a bit depressed as we unpacked our tent.
An old Japanese lady drove past, gesturing furiously at us and saying 'housu' repeatedly. Assuming she didn't like us camping (but too tired and wet to do anything else) we studiously ignored her. She was so persistent, though, that we wondered if she meant there was a hotel nearby. So we followed her car around a couple of corners.
She turned into the driveway of a beautiful traditional Japanese house (ornamental garden, sliding paper walls etc) and proceeded to invite us in to what turned out to be her own home.
What followed was a traditional Japanese dinner and breakfast, a futon laid out in their sitting room for us to sleep on, a traditional Japanese bath (we had to be spotlessly clean even before getting in) and a packed lunch the next day. All whilst refusing any payment, and without a single word of shared language.
As an experience, I'm not sure I have ever beaten or (or ever will).
A bit like Russia reclaiming its true motherland in Ukraine. I will be fighting for Trump of course
Therew would be no debate on reparations if Starmer had signed up to doing it! It's a diplomatic way to say "no". What would you have him do - put his hands over his ears, sing Rule Britannia and dissolve the Commonwealth?
He already has a corrupted Supreme Court that would rewrite the Constitution by bizarre interpretation to give him cover, as they have already done in the matter of Presidential Immunity.
He doesn't care about the consequences for anybody other than himself.
He would try and deal with the Federal Indictments against him by appointing a corrupt patsy as Attorney General - Aileen Cannon is on his list - who will just sack the Special Prosecutor.
Nixon tried to make his AG do that to get rid of the investigation into him, and his AG said "no can do" and resigned, then Nixon tried it with the Deputy AG, who also resigned. Then the third in line bowed to his will.
Another example is the intention to increase the number of posts regarded as "political" by about 10x, which means that as an incoming administration he can immediately sack 10s or 100s of thousand of civil service officers and replace them with MAGA-placemen/women.
One which has not really broken into the news widely yet is Scotus decisions which undermine the mechanism of federal regulation, that is the Federal USA version of UK bodies such as the Health and Safety Executive. That will create a community and industrial safety wild-west.
Obviously abortion is another one, where women have already died in numbers due to Doctors not being able to treat them because of legal liabilities imposed by Red States. But we are well aware of that.
If Trump gets in, the US is going down a very dark hole indeed, already thanks to Scotus decisions having started the journey.
Roe v Wade (Dobbs) - there are 10 States where measures to protect abortion rights on the ballot. This may drive a higher turnout of those in favour, who will be mainly Democrat.
There are more women voters than men, they vote at a higher rate and they favour Democrats
Nikki Haley voters - Republican voters chose to vote for Haley in the primaries even when she had dropped out will split, some for Harris.
Early voting is way up on what is usual, this may help Democrats.
The Republican trick of releasing many more partisan polls as the election approaches helps their party look better in the poll aggregators. They tried this in 2022 and it worked - remember the Red Wave - until the results showed only a red trickle. See also Polymarket, skewed by a French person betting $45m on Trump victory.
Are the polls right? They could be, within the margin of error, but still either candidate could win in a landside.
Haley has more money, but Trump has 'X' and Musk, which will be more important?
NEW THREAD
No Tory has ever reminded me more of Mrs Thatcher than Mrs Badenoch
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/26/no-tory-has-ever-reminded-me-more-of-mrs-thatcher/
I agree the legacy and effects of slavery need to be addressed. However attempts to do this by a sole UK focus and demand for "cash - now!" are an unapologetic guilt-driven mugging by contemporary politicians. And such would get fully or partly pissed away on corruption and golden cows.
It needs something far more like a sovereign wealth fund devoted to development over decades or centuries.
The model the Church Commissioners are using on this is one reasonable (I suggest) way of addressing it; they agreed to put up about 1% of their assets (£100m) into a fund a number of years ago, and commissioned research looking for what they should be looking at given that part basis of their assets 2 or 3 centuries ago were slavery linked.
The research said this is not enough. So they will develop it over time and invite others (such as HNW individuals whose fortunes have come all or part from slavery linked businesses) to join their institutional structure. Importantly, they are moving cautiously and sustainably.
Aside from the copious video evidence of ballot stuffing, voter and observer intimidation, double voting and the other usual tricks of the trade, this chart looks pretty compelling:
https://x.com/mari_nikuradze/status/1850432028568678432?s=46
It also suggests GD only started cheating at elections this time and were winning fair and square previously.
The opposition parties are not recognising the result. Expect major protests, and a crack down. Also expect plenty of labelling of these protests as a CIA-based colour revolution aimed at destabilising the country. Russian media is already doing so. As, it seems, are quite a lot of right wing US commentators.
Farmers tend to be more than happy for you to camp out in a field as long as you ask them nicely.
And their culture!
Today I learned that seppuku wasn’t merely a flamboyant and dramatic way to top yourself, it is also designed to be the most painful way you can kill yourself with a blade - drawing it laterally across the abdomen so you self-disembowel - apparently the pain is about as bad it gets (I dunno how they know but that’s what they say)
By inflicting this on yourself you show even more honour and courage. Personally I thing ritualised suicide by itself shows impressive levels of commitment - but the Japs add extra tons of agony
But then you compare where the Republican party is today, compared with eight years ago, and consider the team which will make up his administration, compared to the group of mainly old style Washington insiders back then.
The Democratic states would push back - and possibly the House, though if the polls are wrong in Trump's rather than Harris's favour, then that might go too.
There are certainly far fewer checks and balances, compared with 2016.
How does the UK break out of this doom loop cycle of PMs leading governments which are indifferent at best and damagingly self-destructive at worst?
I’ve just read the latest on the tit for tat electronic registration scheme - to counter the EU scheme imposed on us we will impose one on them. And thus finally kill the practical ability of educational trips across the channel. My party has pointed out that free movement of school children is hardly threatening to Brexit even if Keith Donkey still needs to kowtow to the remaining declining few who think a Brexit is worth having. But no, Donkey refuses to engage.
What are we about any more, as a country? What are we for? What’s our direction of travel? Other than an inert lump drifting into obscurity?
The 10% tariff on the rest of the world might, but there's no chance he could get it through the Senate and I doubt he'd be able to use the President's national security exception to enact it on his own.
A serious world recession wouldn't necessarily be directly catastrophic for us with our levels of debt because it's borrowed and serviced in our own currency. We can always print more (or "use quantitative easing" as it's called these days). It WOULD probably split the euro area apart, especially if the Germans finally refused to let the ECB bail out the others. Of course in the long term that would greatly benefit the member states, who would be able to have independent economic policies again, but in the short term many of them would suffer greatly.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/26/this-is-personal-reeves-reveals-her-motivation-and-relishes-moment-in-history
Maybe the Telegraph has been right all along?
You complain about false equivalence when Trump’s acolytes do it…
(Autocorrect turned “deal” to “seal”. How is @DougSeal - haven’t seen him on here for ages)