It’s obvious from the reporting that the UK suffered a diplomatic defeat at the Commonwealth.
Reparations were not even on the agenda, so the UK has been “hijacked”. And despite Starmer’s pleading, it is not obvious at all the money is not to be discussed.
Starmer said none of the discussions at the summit had concerned money.
“Well, no figure,” Frederick Mitchell, the foreign minister of the Bahamas told BBC Radio’s Today programme on Saturday. “We’ll see what happens going forward.”
He said he hoped a report on the issue would follow, which nations would discuss in the future. Mitchell also mentioned the UK government’s decision in 2013 to recognise the torture of Kenyans by British colonial forces during the Mau Mau uprising, which resulted in a £20m payout. “I have no doubt …. that the arc of history always goes in the right direction,” he said.
The Commonwealth no longer does our bidding, and why should it? After all KC3 is Head of State for a number of the countries pursuing reparations too. Sure we could have thrown our toys out of the pram and refused to sign the declaration, but that pretty much would bang in the final nail in its coffin.
We cannot praise the democratic institutions and rule of law that we bequeathed to the Commonwealth, then refuse to respond to those governments. Either we left them something valid, or we did not.
I don’t think the Commonwealth should do the UK’s bidding. That would be bizarre.
I simply note the UK’s diplomatic defeat on this issue.
The last government created a precedent, it seems:
"Mitchell also mentioned the UK government’s decision in 2013 to recognise the torture of Kenyans by British colonial forces during the Mau Mau uprising, which resulted in a £20m payout."
When you are in a minority you are not going to get your way. I guess the issue is whether you then walk out or just play along knowing you cannot be forced to do anything you do not want to do.
You don't walk out. You just say "No. You must be joking!" and sit there. You certainly don't sign a declaration that opens the door. You refuse to sign. Simple.
That's pretty much the same as walking out. Basically, you leave without a communique. I suspect that is what a lot of previous UK governments would have done. This one chose not to grandstand. Unlike others on here, I don't see that as an act of treason. We decide whether the door opens. It's all in our hands.
They all leave without a communique. It's not us walking out. They all walk out. Not agreeing to reparations is not grandstanding. It's resisting blackmail and I'm sure would have the support of the vast majority in the UK. No doubt there will be a poll soon.
As much as you may wish it otherwise, the UK government has not agreed to reparations.
It has agreed the following:
"Heads, noting calls for discussions on reparatory justice with regard to the trans-Atlantic trade in enslaved Africans and chattel enslavement and recognising the importance of this matter to member states of the Commonwealth, the majority of which share common historical experiences in relation to this abhorrent trade, agreed that the time has come for a meaningful, truthful and respectful conversation towards forging a common future based on equity. Heads further agreed to continue playing an active role in bringing about such inclusive conversations addressing these harms."
So Starmer has agreed to a meaningful conversation on reparations, because that's what it's about. What else?
Perhaps it is a cynical kicking of the discussion into the long grass out of politeness.
I would simply say No. People alive now had nothing to do with slavery on either side. It's a scam.
Yep, to me that looks like a kick into the very long grass. It's very clearly not the UK agreeing to pay reparations.
I think Starmer's strategy was to find a way of saying no without aggravating the Caribbean nations so much they end up in China's sphere of influence. "A conversation towards forging a common future based on equity" can mean absolutely anything.
I think so. The resolution on reparatory justice is unwelcome and highly embarrassing for Starmer but these things happen. The UK wants warm words about how bad slavery is; the other members want lots of cash. Even if the UK does some relatively modest education or development programmes targeted at its Commonwealth it they will be seen as either extorted or tokenistic. The Commonwealth won't survive a big bust up; it just isn't important enough to anyone. So I think he will will want the discussions to go into the long grass to avoid that outcome.
The battle for the Commonwealth was lost before it even met.
It was catastrophic that India and South Africa didn't even show up.
How did the Foreign Office let that slip?
I would trim and modify the Commonwealth such that it only includes:
UK AUS CAN NZ
their overseas territories
the 11 remaining Commonwealth Realms (until they do a Barbados!)
and, ideally, hopefully, because they are also overwhelmingly English-speaking:
USA Ireland
I would rename it The Greater English Commonwealth.
Five Eyes and AUKUS, and similar deals like it, mean the realpolitik is increasingly heading in that direction.
I really worry about the direction India is going in.
It's starting to emulate Russia and China, not us.
I'd say India is closer to Turkey than China or Russia. A religious conservative as a legitimately elected leader (at least for now) who has fired up the economy and got millions of people out of crushing poverty. It helps Modi that the opposition parties in India are so weak and have no answer for his muscular conservatism paired with very strong economic policies.
Modi is playing on a strain of nationalist chauvinism and anti-Islamic sentiment which goes beyond Erdogan’s more bog standard national conservatism.
Recent actions show Modi clearly values sucking up to Putin rather than to Starmer!
He’s a menace. Erdogan (like Lukashenko) is just a basic mobster.
Yes. We need to reestablish colonial rule of India for the benefit of all.
I don't think our armed forces are exactly in a shape to invade India at the moment not to mention the hypocrisy of attacking Putin for invading Ukraine to try and restore the USSR. While we then went and invaded India to try and restore the British Empire
We could do it like last time, by recruiting local allies as Sepoys.
The Sikhs aren't too keen on Modi. Divide and Rule, like the good old days.
So you’d opt for the land route down from Pakistan through Punjab then.
If we could recruit Pakistan to our side by buying them off with Kashmir, it's the best prospect.
Something I’ve never understood is how the Moghul Empire fell apart so swiftly. It was one of the world’s great powers in 1700. It was in free fall by 1720, and Nadir Shah destroyed the last of its prestige, by sacking Delhi in 1739.
These things happen quickly. In the 20 years from 1947 the British Empire went from a quarter of the world to Hong Kong and a few distant islands.
That’s true, but the Dominions were virtually independent in 1931, and India was intended for Dominion status. By 1947, it was clear that the whole enterprise was being wound up,
There was never any plan to wind up the Moghul empire.
It’s obvious from the reporting that the UK suffered a diplomatic defeat at the Commonwealth.
Reparations were not even on the agenda, so the UK has been “hijacked”. And despite Starmer’s pleading, it is not obvious at all the money is not to be discussed.
Starmer said none of the discussions at the summit had concerned money.
“Well, no figure,” Frederick Mitchell, the foreign minister of the Bahamas told BBC Radio’s Today programme on Saturday. “We’ll see what happens going forward.”
He said he hoped a report on the issue would follow, which nations would discuss in the future. Mitchell also mentioned the UK government’s decision in 2013 to recognise the torture of Kenyans by British colonial forces during the Mau Mau uprising, which resulted in a £20m payout. “I have no doubt …. that the arc of history always goes in the right direction,” he said.
The Commonwealth no longer does our bidding, and why should it? After all KC3 is Head of State for a number of the countries pursuing reparations too. Sure we could have thrown our toys out of the pram and refused to sign the declaration, but that pretty much would bang in the final nail in its coffin.
We cannot praise the democratic institutions and rule of law that we bequeathed to the Commonwealth, then refuse to respond to those governments. Either we left them something valid, or we did not.
I don’t think the Commonwealth should do the UK’s bidding. That would be bizarre.
I simply note the UK’s diplomatic defeat on this issue.
The last government created a precedent, it seems:
"Mitchell also mentioned the UK government’s decision in 2013 to recognise the torture of Kenyans by British colonial forces during the Mau Mau uprising, which resulted in a £20m payout."
When you are in a minority you are not going to get your way. I guess the issue is whether you then walk out or just play along knowing you cannot be forced to do anything you do not want to do.
You don't walk out. You just say "No. You must be joking!" and sit there. You certainly don't sign a declaration that opens the door. You refuse to sign. Simple.
That's pretty much the same as walking out. Basically, you leave without a communique. I suspect that is what a lot of previous UK governments would have done. This one chose not to grandstand. Unlike others on here, I don't see that as an act of treason. We decide whether the door opens. It's all in our hands.
They all leave without a communique. It's not us walking out. They all walk out. Not agreeing to reparations is not grandstanding. It's resisting blackmail and I'm sure would have the support of the vast majority in the UK. No doubt there will be a poll soon.
As much as you may wish it otherwise, the UK government has not agreed to reparations.
It has agreed the following:
"Heads, noting calls for discussions on reparatory justice with regard to the trans-Atlantic trade in enslaved Africans and chattel enslavement and recognising the importance of this matter to member states of the Commonwealth, the majority of which share common historical experiences in relation to this abhorrent trade, agreed that the time has come for a meaningful, truthful and respectful conversation towards forging a common future based on equity. Heads further agreed to continue playing an active role in bringing about such inclusive conversations addressing these harms."
So Starmer has agreed to a meaningful conversation on reparations, because that's what it's about. What else?
Perhaps it is a cynical kicking of the discussion into the long grass out of politeness.
I would simply say No. People alive now had nothing to do with slavery on either side. It's a scam.
Yep, to me that looks like a kick into the very long grass. It's very clearly not the UK agreeing to pay reparations.
I think Starmer's strategy was to find a way of saying no without aggravating the Caribbean nations so much they end up in China's sphere of influence. "A conversation towards forging a common future based on equity" can mean absolutely anything.
I think so. The resolution on reparatory justice is unwelcome and highly embarrassing for Starmer but these things happen. The UK wants warm words about how bad slavery is; the other members want lots of cash. Even if the UK does some relatively modest education or development programmes targeted at its Commonwealth it they will be seen as either extorted or tokenistic. The Commonwealth won't survive a big bust up; it just isn't important enough to anyone. So I think he will will want the discussions to go into the long grass to avoid that outcome.
The battle for the Commonwealth was lost before it even met.
It was catastrophic that India and South Africa didn't even show up.
How did the Foreign Office let that slip?
I would trim and modify the Commonwealth such that it only includes:
UK AUS CAN NZ
their overseas territories
the 11 remaining Commonwealth Realms (until they do a Barbados!)
and, ideally, hopefully, because they are also overwhelmingly English-speaking:
USA Ireland
I would rename it The Greater English Commonwealth.
Five Eyes and AUKUS, and similar deals like it, mean the realpolitik is increasingly heading in that direction.
I really worry about the direction India is going in.
It's starting to emulate Russia and China, not us.
I'd say India is closer to Turkey than China or Russia. A religious conservative as a legitimately elected leader (at least for now) who has fired up the economy and got millions of people out of crushing poverty. It helps Modi that the opposition parties in India are so weak and have no answer for his muscular conservatism paired with very strong economic policies.
Modi is playing on a strain of nationalist chauvinism and anti-Islamic sentiment which goes beyond Erdogan’s more bog standard national conservatism.
Recent actions show Modi clearly values sucking up to Putin rather than to Starmer!
He’s a menace. Erdogan (like Lukashenko) is just a basic mobster.
Yes. We need to reestablish colonial rule of India for the benefit of all.
I don't think our armed forces are exactly in a shape to invade India at the moment not to mention the hypocrisy of attacking Putin for invading Ukraine to try and restore the USSR. While we then went and invaded India to try and restore the British Empire
We could do it like last time, by recruiting local allies as Sepoys.
The Sikhs aren't too keen on Modi. Divide and Rule, like the good old days.
So you’d opt for the land route down from Pakistan through Punjab then.
If we could recruit Pakistan to our side by buying them off with Kashmir, it's the best prospect.
Something I’ve never understood is how the Moghul Empire fell apart so swiftly. It was one of the world’s great powers in 1700. It was in free fall by 1720, and Nadir Shah destroyed the last of its prestige, by sacking Delhi in 1739.
Presumably you’ve studied Dalrymple?
I did not find his account in The Anarchy very illuminating. It’s something that likely requires a book of its own.
Michigan Muslims endorse Donald J. Trump for president:
"He promises peace not war!"
I think their influence is overrated, a mere 2.4% of Michigan's population is Muslim.
Though of course if Trump won he would back Israel going to war with Iran as well as Hamas and Hezbollah so their idiocy would get what it deserves
It’s like they forgot about Trumps 4 years and his attempts at the Muslim travel ban . And it’s clear that Harris will be tougher on Israel if she wins , now she can’t say much . I’m astonished that this bunch of muppets have fallen for Trumps bullshxt .
They endorsed the bloke who moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Absolute f**kin morons.
For anyone interested, 'Frenchman' (*) Sam Laidlow is currently leading the Ironman world championships in Kona, coming up towards the end of the bike. Now all he needs to do is a marathon run...
Always top, ideally front window seat, left hand side.
Most modern double-deckers afford more leg room front right, for some reason.
I think the stair needs to go over the wheel and leave enough space for the driver, which determines how much space there is in front of it at the top.
Activote has Harris and Walz doing 2% better with white voters than Biden did in 2020 and 6% better with white voters than Hillary did in 2016 Trump 1% worse with white voters but 6% worse with black voters and 10% worse with Latinos than Biden did in 2020 where Trump has made gains
Those changes are fascinating, because they suggest that Harris will go backwards in the Sun Belt and in North Carolina, but potentially do better than Biden in the Rust Belt.
The three whitest battleground states are Wisconsin (80%), Pennsylvania (77%) and Michigan (76%). If Harris holds all three, then she is President.
Compared with 2020, if Harris lost Nevada and Arizona, retained Wisconsin and Michigan but fell short in Pennsylvania then you would get a tie in the electoral college.
That's strange. I checked twice on 270towin by resetting to the 2020 result and flipping those states and it showed as a tie. I must have had something stuck to a different result for one of the micro states.
The ECs for some states have changed so you can't use the 2020 EC result as a base.
It's interesting how evenly split they are across the income and education ranges.
How the f*** are educated people voting for the orange cock?
They are rich and high earners and want their taxes cut?
they think they are rich and high earners. Sadly, they are not rich, or high earning enough, to join the club of the *really* rich and high-earning people who will really gain from a Trump presidency. Because the people who will gain are the few.
It's sorta inverse of the tax joke: "Tax the rich; and by rich, I mean anyone richer than me!" In this case, it is "Take stuff off the poor; and by poor, I mean anyone poorer than me!"
Trump: They want buildings in New York taken down and rebuilt without windows because the window is environmentally unfriendly. I guess the sun goes through and creates a warm feel. I like warm. I want a window in my apartment https://x.com/Acyn/status/1850232788244660593
Michigan Muslims endorse Donald J. Trump for president:
"He promises peace not war!"
I think their influence is overrated, a mere 2.4% of Michigan's population is Muslim.
Though of course if Trump won he would back Israel going to war with Iran as well as Hamas and Hezbollah so their idiocy would get what it deserves
It’s like they forgot about Trumps 4 years and his attempts at the Muslim travel ban . And it’s clear that Harris will be tougher on Israel if she wins , now she can’t say much . I’m astonished that this bunch of muppets have fallen for Trumps bullshxt .
They endorsed the bloke who moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Absolute f**kin morons.
I very much doubt all Michigan Muslims support Trump. But the more political Islam end of the spectrum you light get in a campaigning organisation: I expect they see eye to eye on the role of women, lynching gays and banning abortion side of things.
Something apparently is going to drop on Monday re Trump .
This wouldn’t be a surprise . Some GOP cult members have been suggesting next week and trying to get ahead by saying anything you see is a deep fake AI . . It will have to be something major to move the polls as Trump seems immune from the normal rules of politics.
By the very fact it is going to drop in a staged manner in a week before the elections a clue that it is something that is managed and probably set up? I mean its not like the old days in which you could get the White House and the fbi to decry something that was real and actually happened as fake, and then get social media to actively surpass the story, even removing the twitter account of a major American newspaper.
It’s obvious from the reporting that the UK suffered a diplomatic defeat at the Commonwealth.
Reparations were not even on the agenda, so the UK has been “hijacked”. And despite Starmer’s pleading, it is not obvious at all the money is not to be discussed.
Starmer said none of the discussions at the summit had concerned money.
“Well, no figure,” Frederick Mitchell, the foreign minister of the Bahamas told BBC Radio’s Today programme on Saturday. “We’ll see what happens going forward.”
He said he hoped a report on the issue would follow, which nations would discuss in the future. Mitchell also mentioned the UK government’s decision in 2013 to recognise the torture of Kenyans by British colonial forces during the Mau Mau uprising, which resulted in a £20m payout. “I have no doubt …. that the arc of history always goes in the right direction,” he said.
The Commonwealth no longer does our bidding, and why should it? After all KC3 is Head of State for a number of the countries pursuing reparations too. Sure we could have thrown our toys out of the pram and refused to sign the declaration, but that pretty much would bang in the final nail in its coffin.
We cannot praise the democratic institutions and rule of law that we bequeathed to the Commonwealth, then refuse to respond to those governments. Either we left them something valid, or we did not.
I don’t think the Commonwealth should do the UK’s bidding. That would be bizarre.
I simply note the UK’s diplomatic defeat on this issue.
The last government created a precedent, it seems:
"Mitchell also mentioned the UK government’s decision in 2013 to recognise the torture of Kenyans by British colonial forces during the Mau Mau uprising, which resulted in a £20m payout."
When you are in a minority you are not going to get your way. I guess the issue is whether you then walk out or just play along knowing you cannot be forced to do anything you do not want to do.
You don't walk out. You just say "No. You must be joking!" and sit there. You certainly don't sign a declaration that opens the door. You refuse to sign. Simple.
That's pretty much the same as walking out. Basically, you leave without a communique. I suspect that is what a lot of previous UK governments would have done. This one chose not to grandstand. Unlike others on here, I don't see that as an act of treason. We decide whether the door opens. It's all in our hands.
They all leave without a communique. It's not us walking out. They all walk out. Not agreeing to reparations is not grandstanding. It's resisting blackmail and I'm sure would have the support of the vast majority in the UK. No doubt there will be a poll soon.
As much as you may wish it otherwise, the UK government has not agreed to reparations.
It has agreed the following:
"Heads, noting calls for discussions on reparatory justice with regard to the trans-Atlantic trade in enslaved Africans and chattel enslavement and recognising the importance of this matter to member states of the Commonwealth, the majority of which share common historical experiences in relation to this abhorrent trade, agreed that the time has come for a meaningful, truthful and respectful conversation towards forging a common future based on equity. Heads further agreed to continue playing an active role in bringing about such inclusive conversations addressing these harms."
So Starmer has agreed to a meaningful conversation on reparations, because that's what it's about. What else?
Perhaps it is a cynical kicking of the discussion into the long grass out of politeness.
I would simply say No. People alive now had nothing to do with slavery on either side. It's a scam.
Yep, to me that looks like a kick into the very long grass. It's very clearly not the UK agreeing to pay reparations.
I think Starmer's strategy was to find a way of saying no without aggravating the Caribbean nations so much they end up in China's sphere of influence. "A conversation towards forging a common future based on equity" can mean absolutely anything.
I think so. The resolution on reparatory justice is unwelcome and highly embarrassing for Starmer but these things happen. The UK wants warm words about how bad slavery is; the other members want lots of cash. Even if the UK does some relatively modest education or development programmes targeted at its Commonwealth it they will be seen as either extorted or tokenistic. The Commonwealth won't survive a big bust up; it just isn't important enough to anyone. So I think he will will want the discussions to go into the long grass to avoid that outcome.
The battle for the Commonwealth was lost before it even met.
It was catastrophic that India and South Africa didn't even show up.
How did the Foreign Office let that slip?
I would trim and modify the Commonwealth such that it only includes:
UK AUS CAN NZ
their overseas territories
the 11 remaining Commonwealth Realms (until they do a Barbados!)
and, ideally, hopefully, because they are also overwhelmingly English-speaking:
USA Ireland
I would rename it The Greater English Commonwealth.
Five Eyes and AUKUS, and similar deals like it, mean the realpolitik is increasingly heading in that direction.
I really worry about the direction India is going in.
It's starting to emulate Russia and China, not us.
I'd say India is closer to Turkey than China or Russia. A religious conservative as a legitimately elected leader (at least for now) who has fired up the economy and got millions of people out of crushing poverty. It helps Modi that the opposition parties in India are so weak and have no answer for his muscular conservatism paired with very strong economic policies.
Modi is playing on a strain of nationalist chauvinism and anti-Islamic sentiment which goes beyond Erdogan’s more bog standard national conservatism.
Recent actions show Modi clearly values sucking up to Putin rather than to Starmer!
He’s a menace. Erdogan (like Lukashenko) is just a basic mobster.
Yes. We need to reestablish colonial rule of India for the benefit of all.
Forty years ago, that would have been a much better idea. But given we can't seem to get a decent government of our own these days, I'm not sure we'd be any better at running India than Modi is.
Something apparently is going to drop on Monday re Trump .
This wouldn’t be a surprise . Some GOP cult members have been suggesting next week and trying to get ahead by saying anything you see is a deep fake AI . . It will have to be something major to move the polls as Trump seems immune from the normal rules of politics.
By the very fact it is going to drop in a staged manner in a week before the elections a clue that it is something that is managed and probably set up? I mean its not like the old days in which you could get the White House and the fbi to decry something that was real and actually happened as fake, and then get social media to actively surpass the story, even removing the twitter account of a major American newspaper.
Every likes to claim stuff about October Surprises. It’s always bullshit.
Is bus snobbery a British only thing? When I lived in Geneva I would take the bus from my village along with the head of one of the Swiss Banks, the guy who owned the village Manor House who was a British/swiss hedgie, we would pick up loads of other financiers on the way along the lake.
Nobody thought anything odd about it. Quite liked hoping off and switching to the water buses occasionally.
I use the buses at home happily when I am out all day followed by a boozy session as it gets me from home to town with no stress whatsoever. Many friends and acquaintances who are worth crazy millions do as well. I think maybe it’s one of those things where people like the “etiquette expert” William Hanson are so up their own backsides that they think it makes them look lower class. Strange.
In wealthy countries, even the wealthy use public transport. Stockholm and Copenhagen are very good examples. In Oslo, even the King, when he was well, used the trams quite regularly.
Not in most of the United States they don't.
In LA, where I lived for a while, few with any choice at all will use the bus network, or let their kids do so. People look at you strangely if you aren't obviously destitute and you broach the subject.
Trump: They want buildings in New York taken down and rebuilt without windows because the window is environmentally unfriendly. I guess the sun goes through and creates a warm feel. I like warm. I want a window in my apartment https://x.com/Acyn/status/1850232788244660593
That sounds risky, given what happens to mates of Putin who get near windows.
It’s obvious from the reporting that the UK suffered a diplomatic defeat at the Commonwealth.
Reparations were not even on the agenda, so the UK has been “hijacked”. And despite Starmer’s pleading, it is not obvious at all the money is not to be discussed.
Starmer said none of the discussions at the summit had concerned money.
“Well, no figure,” Frederick Mitchell, the foreign minister of the Bahamas told BBC Radio’s Today programme on Saturday. “We’ll see what happens going forward.”
He said he hoped a report on the issue would follow, which nations would discuss in the future. Mitchell also mentioned the UK government’s decision in 2013 to recognise the torture of Kenyans by British colonial forces during the Mau Mau uprising, which resulted in a £20m payout. “I have no doubt …. that the arc of history always goes in the right direction,” he said.
The Commonwealth no longer does our bidding, and why should it? After all KC3 is Head of State for a number of the countries pursuing reparations too. Sure we could have thrown our toys out of the pram and refused to sign the declaration, but that pretty much would bang in the final nail in its coffin.
We cannot praise the democratic institutions and rule of law that we bequeathed to the Commonwealth, then refuse to respond to those governments. Either we left them something valid, or we did not.
I don’t think the Commonwealth should do the UK’s bidding. That would be bizarre.
I simply note the UK’s diplomatic defeat on this issue.
The last government created a precedent, it seems:
"Mitchell also mentioned the UK government’s decision in 2013 to recognise the torture of Kenyans by British colonial forces during the Mau Mau uprising, which resulted in a £20m payout."
When you are in a minority you are not going to get your way. I guess the issue is whether you then walk out or just play along knowing you cannot be forced to do anything you do not want to do.
You don't walk out. You just say "No. You must be joking!" and sit there. You certainly don't sign a declaration that opens the door. You refuse to sign. Simple.
That's pretty much the same as walking out. Basically, you leave without a communique. I suspect that is what a lot of previous UK governments would have done. This one chose not to grandstand. Unlike others on here, I don't see that as an act of treason. We decide whether the door opens. It's all in our hands.
They all leave without a communique. It's not us walking out. They all walk out. Not agreeing to reparations is not grandstanding. It's resisting blackmail and I'm sure would have the support of the vast majority in the UK. No doubt there will be a poll soon.
As much as you may wish it otherwise, the UK government has not agreed to reparations.
It has agreed the following:
"Heads, noting calls for discussions on reparatory justice with regard to the trans-Atlantic trade in enslaved Africans and chattel enslavement and recognising the importance of this matter to member states of the Commonwealth, the majority of which share common historical experiences in relation to this abhorrent trade, agreed that the time has come for a meaningful, truthful and respectful conversation towards forging a common future based on equity. Heads further agreed to continue playing an active role in bringing about such inclusive conversations addressing these harms."
So Starmer has agreed to a meaningful conversation on reparations, because that's what it's about. What else?
Perhaps it is a cynical kicking of the discussion into the long grass out of politeness.
I would simply say No. People alive now had nothing to do with slavery on either side. It's a scam.
Yep, to me that looks like a kick into the very long grass. It's very clearly not the UK agreeing to pay reparations.
I think Starmer's strategy was to find a way of saying no without aggravating the Caribbean nations so much they end up in China's sphere of influence. "A conversation towards forging a common future based on equity" can mean absolutely anything.
I think so. The resolution on reparatory justice is unwelcome and highly embarrassing for Starmer but these things happen. The UK wants warm words about how bad slavery is; the other members want lots of cash. Even if the UK does some relatively modest education or development programmes targeted at its Commonwealth it they will be seen as either extorted or tokenistic. The Commonwealth won't survive a big bust up; it just isn't important enough to anyone. So I think he will will want the discussions to go into the long grass to avoid that outcome.
The battle for the Commonwealth was lost before it even met.
It was catastrophic that India and South Africa didn't even show up.
How did the Foreign Office let that slip?
I would trim and modify the Commonwealth such that it only includes:
UK AUS CAN NZ
their overseas territories
the 11 remaining Commonwealth Realms (until they do a Barbados!)
and, ideally, hopefully, because they are also overwhelmingly English-speaking:
USA Ireland
I would rename it The Greater English Commonwealth.
Five Eyes and AUKUS, and similar deals like it, mean the realpolitik is increasingly heading in that direction.
I really worry about the direction India is going in.
It's starting to emulate Russia and China, not us.
I'd say India is closer to Turkey than China or Russia. A religious conservative as a legitimately elected leader (at least for now) who has fired up the economy and got millions of people out of crushing poverty. It helps Modi that the opposition parties in India are so weak and have no answer for his muscular conservatism paired with very strong economic policies.
Modi is playing on a strain of nationalist chauvinism and anti-Islamic sentiment which goes beyond Erdogan’s more bog standard national conservatism.
Recent actions show Modi clearly values sucking up to Putin rather than to Starmer!
He’s a menace. Erdogan (like Lukashenko) is just a basic mobster.
Yes. We need to reestablish colonial rule of India for the benefit of all.
I don't think our armed forces are exactly in a shape to invade India at the moment not to mention the hypocrisy of attacking Putin for invading Ukraine to try and restore the USSR. While we then went and invaded India to try and restore the British Empire
We could do it like last time, by recruiting local allies as Sepoys.
The Sikhs aren't too keen on Modi. Divide and Rule, like the good old days.
So you’d opt for the land route down from Pakistan through Punjab then.
If we could recruit Pakistan to our side by buying them off with Kashmir, it's the best prospect.
Something I’ve never understood is how the Moghul Empire fell apart so swiftly. It was one of the world’s great powers in 1700. It was in free fall by 1720, and Nadir Shah destroyed the last of its prestige, by sacking Delhi in 1739.
These things happen quickly. In the 20 years from 1947 the British Empire went from a quarter of the world to Hong Kong and a few distant islands.
That’s true, but the Dominions were virtually independent in 1931, and India was intended for Dominion status. By 1947, it was clear that the whole enterprise was being wound up,
There was never any plan to wind up the Moghul empire.
It’s obvious from the reporting that the UK suffered a diplomatic defeat at the Commonwealth.
Reparations were not even on the agenda, so the UK has been “hijacked”. And despite Starmer’s pleading, it is not obvious at all the money is not to be discussed.
Starmer said none of the discussions at the summit had concerned money.
“Well, no figure,” Frederick Mitchell, the foreign minister of the Bahamas told BBC Radio’s Today programme on Saturday. “We’ll see what happens going forward.”
He said he hoped a report on the issue would follow, which nations would discuss in the future. Mitchell also mentioned the UK government’s decision in 2013 to recognise the torture of Kenyans by British colonial forces during the Mau Mau uprising, which resulted in a £20m payout. “I have no doubt …. that the arc of history always goes in the right direction,” he said.
The Commonwealth no longer does our bidding, and why should it? After all KC3 is Head of State for a number of the countries pursuing reparations too. Sure we could have thrown our toys out of the pram and refused to sign the declaration, but that pretty much would bang in the final nail in its coffin.
We cannot praise the democratic institutions and rule of law that we bequeathed to the Commonwealth, then refuse to respond to those governments. Either we left them something valid, or we did not.
I don’t think the Commonwealth should do the UK’s bidding. That would be bizarre.
I simply note the UK’s diplomatic defeat on this issue.
The last government created a precedent, it seems:
"Mitchell also mentioned the UK government’s decision in 2013 to recognise the torture of Kenyans by British colonial forces during the Mau Mau uprising, which resulted in a £20m payout."
When you are in a minority you are not going to get your way. I guess the issue is whether you then walk out or just play along knowing you cannot be forced to do anything you do not want to do.
You don't walk out. You just say "No. You must be joking!" and sit there. You certainly don't sign a declaration that opens the door. You refuse to sign. Simple.
That's pretty much the same as walking out. Basically, you leave without a communique. I suspect that is what a lot of previous UK governments would have done. This one chose not to grandstand. Unlike others on here, I don't see that as an act of treason. We decide whether the door opens. It's all in our hands.
They all leave without a communique. It's not us walking out. They all walk out. Not agreeing to reparations is not grandstanding. It's resisting blackmail and I'm sure would have the support of the vast majority in the UK. No doubt there will be a poll soon.
As much as you may wish it otherwise, the UK government has not agreed to reparations.
It has agreed the following:
"Heads, noting calls for discussions on reparatory justice with regard to the trans-Atlantic trade in enslaved Africans and chattel enslavement and recognising the importance of this matter to member states of the Commonwealth, the majority of which share common historical experiences in relation to this abhorrent trade, agreed that the time has come for a meaningful, truthful and respectful conversation towards forging a common future based on equity. Heads further agreed to continue playing an active role in bringing about such inclusive conversations addressing these harms."
So Starmer has agreed to a meaningful conversation on reparations, because that's what it's about. What else?
Perhaps it is a cynical kicking of the discussion into the long grass out of politeness.
I would simply say No. People alive now had nothing to do with slavery on either side. It's a scam.
Yep, to me that looks like a kick into the very long grass. It's very clearly not the UK agreeing to pay reparations.
I think Starmer's strategy was to find a way of saying no without aggravating the Caribbean nations so much they end up in China's sphere of influence. "A conversation towards forging a common future based on equity" can mean absolutely anything.
I think so. The resolution on reparatory justice is unwelcome and highly embarrassing for Starmer but these things happen. The UK wants warm words about how bad slavery is; the other members want lots of cash. Even if the UK does some relatively modest education or development programmes targeted at its Commonwealth it they will be seen as either extorted or tokenistic. The Commonwealth won't survive a big bust up; it just isn't important enough to anyone. So I think he will will want the discussions to go into the long grass to avoid that outcome.
The battle for the Commonwealth was lost before it even met.
It was catastrophic that India and South Africa didn't even show up.
How did the Foreign Office let that slip?
I would trim and modify the Commonwealth such that it only includes:
UK AUS CAN NZ
their overseas territories
the 11 remaining Commonwealth Realms (until they do a Barbados!)
and, ideally, hopefully, because they are also overwhelmingly English-speaking:
USA Ireland
I would rename it The Greater English Commonwealth.
Five Eyes and AUKUS, and similar deals like it, mean the realpolitik is increasingly heading in that direction.
I really worry about the direction India is going in.
It's starting to emulate Russia and China, not us.
I'd say India is closer to Turkey than China or Russia. A religious conservative as a legitimately elected leader (at least for now) who has fired up the economy and got millions of people out of crushing poverty. It helps Modi that the opposition parties in India are so weak and have no answer for his muscular conservatism paired with very strong economic policies.
Modi is playing on a strain of nationalist chauvinism and anti-Islamic sentiment which goes beyond Erdogan’s more bog standard national conservatism.
Recent actions show Modi clearly values sucking up to Putin rather than to Starmer!
He’s a menace. Erdogan (like Lukashenko) is just a basic mobster.
Yes. We need to reestablish colonial rule of India for the benefit of all.
I don't think our armed forces are exactly in a shape to invade India at the moment not to mention the hypocrisy of attacking Putin for invading Ukraine to try and restore the USSR. While we then went and invaded India to try and restore the British Empire
We could do it like last time, by recruiting local allies as Sepoys.
The Sikhs aren't too keen on Modi. Divide and Rule, like the good old days.
So you’d opt for the land route down from Pakistan through Punjab then.
If we could recruit Pakistan to our side by buying them off with Kashmir, it's the best prospect.
Something I’ve never understood is how the Moghul Empire fell apart so swiftly. It was one of the world’s great powers in 1700. It was in free fall by 1720, and Nadir Shah destroyed the last of its prestige, by sacking Delhi in 1739.
Presumably you’ve studied Dalrymple?
I did not find his account in The Anarchy very illuminating. It’s something that likely requires a book of its own.
I don't think that is true about the British Empire in 1947. India, Burma and Pakistan were independent, but it wasn't until 1960 that it became obvious that the Empire was going to be over with MacMillans "Winds of Change" speech.
It wasn't just us of course, the French and Belgian empires collapsed equally quickly as 1960 developed. The Portuguese lasted a bit longer.
It's interesting how evenly split they are across the income and education ranges.
How the f*** are educated people voting for the orange cock?
Sounds like bollx.
Why?
I’ve got personal experience of very educated people who fell down the MAGA hole.
Top universities are full of highly intelligent stupid people.
Educated people are highly vulnerable to hysteria... see the widespread support for BLM riots and COVID lockdowns, which is exacerbated by their self confidence. So it isn't surprising that they could also fall in to the MAGA hole.
Or maybe they just actually believe that Trump is the better of two bad options - a reasonable viewpoint.
Michigan Muslims endorse Donald J. Trump for president:
"He promises peace not war!"
I think their influence is overrated, a mere 2.4% of Michigan's population is Muslim.
Though of course if Trump won he would back Israel going to war with Iran as well as Hamas and Hezbollah so their idiocy would get what it deserves
It’s like they forgot about Trumps 4 years and his attempts at the Muslim travel ban . And it’s clear that Harris will be tougher on Israel if she wins , now she can’t say much . I’m astonished that this bunch of muppets have fallen for Trumps bullshxt .
They endorsed the bloke who moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Absolute f**kin morons.
I very much doubt all Michigan Muslims support Trump. But the more political Islam end of the spectrum you light get in a campaigning organisation: I expect they see eye to eye on the role of women, lynching gays and banning abortion side of things.
Political Islam supports Trump? This could be the break Harris has been waiting for.
"But there are still concerns about the way ActiVote recruits its respondents. First, there's the fact that anyone who wants to can download the app and participate in one of its polls."
Is bus snobbery a British only thing? When I lived in Geneva I would take the bus from my village along with the head of one of the Swiss Banks, the guy who owned the village Manor House who was a British/swiss hedgie, we would pick up loads of other financiers on the way along the lake.
Nobody thought anything odd about it. Quite liked hoping off and switching to the water buses occasionally.
I use the buses at home happily when I am out all day followed by a boozy session as it gets me from home to town with no stress whatsoever. Many friends and acquaintances who are worth crazy millions do as well. I think maybe it’s one of those things where people like the “etiquette expert” William Hanson are so up their own backsides that they think it makes them look lower class. Strange.
In wealthy countries, even the wealthy use public transport. Stockholm and Copenhagen are very good examples. In Oslo, even the King, when he was well, used the trams quite regularly.
Not in most of the United States they don't.
In LA, where I lived for a while, few with any choice at all will use the bus network, or let their kids do so. People look at you strangely if you aren't obviously destitute and you broach the subject.
When I was in LA I mainly used buses and the subway but that is not a big network like most global cities.
I found apart from pensioners and hipsters the buses were mainly used by blacks and hispanics so was a good way to meet a broader section of the community
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there wont be an election in 2028. Or at least there wont be an election in which Trump doesn't receive 98% of the vote.
How is he going to do that unless 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 the states support him changing the Constutution to allow for a third term as required for constitutional amendments and Article 5 of the Constitution? Or the military back making him a dictator?
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there wont be an election in 2028. Or at least there wont be an election in which Trump doesn't receive 98% of the vote.
How is he going to do that unless 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 the states support him changing the constutution to allow for a third term as required for constitutional amendments? Or the military back making him a dictator?
He and his Cult will find a way.
I suspect by threatening every single elected person in Congress and the individual states with political violence if they don't do what the Cult want.
We've just yesterday seen Bezos fold without even a direct threat.
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there wont be an election in 2028. Or at least there wont be an election in which Trump doesn't receive 98% of the vote.
How is he going to do that unless 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 the states support him changing the constutution to allow for a third term as required for constitutional amendments? Or the military back making him a dictator?
He and his Cult will find a way.
I suspect by threatening every single elected person in Congress and the individual states with political violence if they don't do what the Cult want.
We've just yesterday seen Bezos fold without even a direct threat.
In which case the US would probably split in 2, the blue states would secede.
Mind you if Harris wins it is not impossible some of the deep red Trump states especially in the South would also try and secede and form a second Confederate States of America under Trump's leadership with his Florida home Mar a Lago his official residence
"Labour MP Mike Amesbury says he was involved in Cheshire 'incident' where he 'felt threatened'
Mike Amesbury, MP for Runcorn and Helsby, said he was involved in an incident where he "threatened on the street following an evening out with friends"."
I’m with Big G on this one. Labour need to act pretty damn quick.
His “evening out” likely involved alcohol, and he certainly appears to have committed an assault on the injured constituent on the ground. If or not it’s acting in self defence needs to be quickly investigated and truth established, and Labour MUST remove whip while its investigating a case of potential unjustified drunken violence because they already have many MPs with whip removed for merely voting in parliament to remove the 2 child benefit cap - how can you commit violence on people in a community you are leading, and retain the whip, whilst others do not have it for merely voting against the 2 child benefit cap?
"Labour MP Mike Amesbury says he was involved in Cheshire 'incident' where he 'felt threatened'
Mike Amesbury, MP for Runcorn and Helsby, said he was involved in an incident where he "threatened on the street following an evening out with friends"."
I’m with Big G on this one. Labour need to act pretty damn quick.
His “evening out” likely involved alcohol, and he certainly appears to have committed an assault on the injured constituent on the ground. If or not it’s acting in self defence needs to be quickly investigated and truth established, and Labour MUST remove whip while its investigating a case of potential unjustified drunken violence because they already have many MPs with whip removed for merely voting in parliament to remove the 2 child benefit cap - how can you commit violence on people in a community you are leading, and retain the whip, whilst others do not have it for merely voting against the 2 child benefit cap?
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there wont be an election in 2028. Or at least there wont be an election in which Trump doesn't receive 98% of the vote.
How is he going to do that unless 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 the states support him changing the constutution to allow for a third term as required for constitutional amendments? Or the military back making him a dictator?
He and his Cult will find a way.
I suspect by threatening every single elected person in Congress and the individual states with political violence if they don't do what the Cult want.
We've just yesterday seen Bezos fold without even a direct threat.
This is hysterical nonsense.
What makes you think Bezos yielded to pressure and that he didn't just use his influence in the way that he saw fit? Why do you think he bought the Washington Post in the first place?
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there wont be an election in 2028. Or at least there wont be an election in which Trump doesn't receive 98% of the vote.
How is he going to do that unless 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 the states support him changing the constutution to allow for a third term as required for constitutional amendments? Or the military back making him a dictator?
He and his Cult will find a way.
I suspect by threatening every single elected person in Congress and the individual states with political violence if they don't do what the Cult want.
We've just yesterday seen Bezos fold without even a direct threat.
In which case the US would probably split in 2, the blue states would secede.
Mind you if Harris wins it is not impossible some of the deep red Trump states especially in the South would also try and secede and form a second Confederate States of America under Trump's leadership with his Florida home Mar a Lago his official residence
Seceding is certainly more likely than a new civil war.
Maybe its for the best. The division seems unresolvable. But then again southern states used to be Democrat.
Pippa Norris @PippaN15 Pundits go on and on blaming the D's for losing the 'working class' need to understand this terrific graph. Across Western democracies, education is the key cleavage, not income. Why? Because of cultural shifts in values, not economic disparities. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab036
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there is no election in 2028.
Sorry. Beaten to it by Rottenborough
This all rather silly talk, of course there will be an election in 2028. But Harris won’t be in it because this loss will be pinned on her being a bad candidate. She isn’t great, but it’s actually fact voters felt better off under the Trump presidency whats won it for him. And this White House dropped the ball on the immigration issue, which Harris does own.
I don’t think we yet have a party anywhere in for the cost of living squeeze, who have survived re-election? Not even the Poles, who seemed very entrenched before the credit squeeze.
Trump won’t be a candidate in 2028 either, and I’m pretty sure he won’t last the 4 years of this term with old age clearly impacting him now - so President Vance is now a certainty to happen, if that is still a juicy looking betting opportunity.
"Labour MP Mike Amesbury says he was involved in Cheshire 'incident' where he 'felt threatened'
Mike Amesbury, MP for Runcorn and Helsby, said he was involved in an incident where he "threatened on the street following an evening out with friends"."
I’m with Big G on this one. Labour need to act pretty damn quick.
His “evening out” likely involved alcohol, and he certainly appears to have committed an assault on the injured constituent on the ground. If or not it’s acting in self defence needs to be quickly investigated and truth established, and Labour MUST remove whip while its investigating a case of potential unjustified drunken violence because they already have many MPs with whip removed for merely voting in parliament to remove the 2 child benefit cap - how can you commit violence on people in a community you are leading, and retain the whip, whilst others do not have it for merely voting against the 2 child benefit cap?
Is a by-election possible?
Maybe but it's the sort of place that will vote Labour regardless.
"Labour MP Mike Amesbury says he was involved in Cheshire 'incident' where he 'felt threatened'
Mike Amesbury, MP for Runcorn and Helsby, said he was involved in an incident where he "threatened on the street following an evening out with friends"."
I’m with Big G on this one. Labour need to act pretty damn quick.
His “evening out” likely involved alcohol, and he certainly appears to have committed an assault on the injured constituent on the ground. If or not it’s acting in self defence needs to be quickly investigated and truth established, and Labour MUST remove whip while its investigating a case of potential unjustified drunken violence because they already have many MPs with whip removed for merely voting in parliament to remove the 2 child benefit cap - how can you commit violence on people in a community you are leading, and retain the whip, whilst others do not have it for merely voting against the 2 child benefit cap?
Is a by-election possible?
Maybe but it's the sort of place that will vote Labour regardless.
"Labour MP Mike Amesbury says he was involved in Cheshire 'incident' where he 'felt threatened'
Mike Amesbury, MP for Runcorn and Helsby, said he was involved in an incident where he "threatened on the street following an evening out with friends"."
I’m with Big G on this one. Labour need to act pretty damn quick.
His “evening out” likely involved alcohol, and he certainly appears to have committed an assault on the injured constituent on the ground. If or not it’s acting in self defence needs to be quickly investigated and truth established, and Labour MUST remove whip while its investigating a case of potential unjustified drunken violence because they already have many MPs with whip removed for merely voting in parliament to remove the 2 child benefit cap - how can you commit violence on people in a community you are leading, and retain the whip, whilst others do not have it for merely voting against the 2 child benefit cap?
Is a by-election possible?
Maybe but it's the sort of place that will vote Labour regardless.
Or else...
They won’t threaten to vote for something else, ever again 🤭
Rather OT, but I've spent today venturing into the exciting world of Solar PV, batteries and dynamic pricing.
I'm staying at my in-laws, who about 12 months ago had about 3kw of PV and a 5kw battery installed, and a Octupus Agile tariff (half hourly variable pricing).
The system should work as follows: Octupus release prices at 4pm the day before. The inverter controller pulls pricing from the Octupus API, and decides in advance when to import power to charge the battery. The system uses the availabile PV to supply the house, then to charge the battery, then exports the leftovers. If there isn't enough PV for demand it draws from the battery until it hits 10% charge, then starts importing power.
I got involved because my in-laws changed ISP, and the internet to the inverter stopped working. (They don't understand half of what this system does never mind how to use it optimally - the intaller sort of configured it and fled the scene). It connects to the network via Wi-Fi only - no option for wired eithernet. After a lot of fighting with the inverter, and fitting a WiFi range extender, I got it to connect, although the connection still goes down every four or five hours, and requires the WiFi extender rebooting. I've no idea why, as a temporary fix I've used a smart plug to power it off for 2 mins every 4 hours.
Having made it "work", I started looking at the control software, and how it decides to manage battery - and quickly realised that it's pretty sub-optimal. It finds the cheapest 4 half-hourly periods between 1am and 6am, to import and charge the battery and also the cheapest 2 slots between 1pm 3pm. In mid-winter, that's possibly not a bad strategy, but looking at the data from August, days with decent PV numbers had a fully charged battery by 10am, and were exporting the PV generation for less than had been paid overnight to import and fill the battery.
There were settings in the inverter which might improve this, but my problem was that the optimal behaviour changes seasonally, and I'm not around every month to reconfigure everything.
Does anyone write integent control systems for this stuff? Ideally you'd use a weather forecast to predict the PV generation, log and model the house load so you'd have some expectation of future usage, and then import to work round that with as little unnecessary or low return battery cycling as possible.
It doesn't strike me as a particularly difficult bit of software to write, but no one seems to be offering it. Meanwhile, my in-laws are cheerfully hammering their batteries with a daily cycle of almost 100% for very small gains, and little hope of understanding what their system is choosing to do or why.
If this stuff is ever going to go fully mainstream, it needs to be simple, idiot proof and just work properly out of the box - it seems to me we've a very long way still to go.
Rather OT, but I've spent today venturing into the exciting world of Solar PV, batteries and dynamic pricing.
I'm staying at my in-laws, who about 12 months ago had about 3kw of PV and a 5kw battery installed, and a Octupus Agile tariff (half hourly variable pricing).
The system should work as follows: Octupus release prices at 4pm the day before. The inverter controller pulls pricing from the Octupus API, and decides in advance when to import power to charge the battery. The system uses the availabile PV to supply the house, then to charge the battery, then exports the leftovers. If there isn't enough PV for demand it draws from the battery until it hits 10% charge, then starts importing power.
I got involved because my in-laws changed ISP, and the internet to the inverter stopped working. (They don't understand half of what this system does never mind how to use it optimally - the intaller sort of configured it and fled the scene). It connects to the network via Wi-Fi only - no option for wired eithernet. After a lot of fighting with the inverter, and fitting a WiFi range extender, I got it to connect, although the connection still goes down every four or five hours, and requires the WiFi extender rebooting. I've no idea why, as a temporary fix I've used a smart plug to power it off for 2 mins every 4 hours.
Having made it "work", I started looking at the control software, and how it decides to manage battery - and quickly realised that it's pretty sub-optimal. It finds the cheapest 4 half-hourly periods between 1am and 6am, to import and charge the battery and also the cheapest 2 slots between 1pm 3pm. In mid-winter, that's possibly not a bad strategy, but looking at the data from August, days with decent PV numbers had a fully charged battery by 10am, and were exporting the PV generation for less than had been paid overnight to import and fill the battery.
There were settings in the inverter which might improve this, but my problem was that the optimal behaviour changes seasonally, and I'm not around every month to reconfigure everything.
Does anyone write integent control systems for this stuff? Ideally you'd use a weather forecast to predict the PV generation, log and model the house load so you'd have some expectation of future usage, and then import to work round that with as little unnecessary or low return battery cycling as possible.
It doesn't strike me as a particularly difficult bit of software to write, but no one seems to be offering it. Meanwhile, my in-laws are cheerfully hammering their batteries with a daily cycle of almost 100% for very small gains, and little hope of understanding what their system is choosing to do or why.
If this stuff is ever going to go fully mainstream, it needs to be simple, idiot proof and just work properly out of the box - it seems to me we've a very long way still to go.
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there is no election in 2028.
Sorry. Beaten to it by Rottenborough
This all rather silly talk, of course there will be an election in 2028. But Harris won’t be in it because this loss will be pinned on her being a bad candidate. She isn’t great, but it’s actually fact voters felt better off under the Trump presidency whats won it for him. And this White House dropped the ball on the immigration issue, which Harris does own.
I don’t think we yet have a party anywhere in for the cost of living squeeze, who have survived re-election? Not even the Poles, who seemed very entrenched before the credit squeeze.
Trump won’t be a candidate in 2028 either, and I’m pretty sure he won’t last the 4 years of this term with old age clearly impacting him now - so President Vance is now a certainty to happen, if that is still a juicy looking betting opportunity.
Political Parties have access to far more data than we have, canvassing and number crunching. And meeting the voters. Something Nick P posted once, he knew he was out when asking not naturally Labour people he had whilst winning, who he needed in order to win, if they were still sticking with him, and could tell that they weren’t.
I think it was Mike Smithson who explained, once it came to two weeks before the 1992 General Election, he sensed Labour had lost and Tories had won. David Hares Labour Of Love play, from inside the Labour camp during the 1992 campaign, shows Labour leaders also knew they had lost when it got under 2 weeks to voting, even though they still had some polling leads left, and not much mainstream media saw the result coming.
So in terms of Political Betting, look, with your own eyes, what are you seeing and feeling, under two weeks to go, and one of these US campaigns has clearly gone flat as a pancake, and can’t raise a smile, whilst the other is all smiles and couldn’t be more chipper, thoughts already looking ahead to the transition - it means the comfortable Trump win won’t come as a surprise to any of us, will it? Both the campaign teams know it, and can’t hide it in their demeanours.
PB - like all the political social media - deals too much in details, so is pretty poor at realising what’s up when voters don’t do details, just basic broad brush like “I’m feeling worse off for a long time, but felt better off under the other one.”
"Labour MP Mike Amesbury says he was involved in Cheshire 'incident' where he 'felt threatened'
Mike Amesbury, MP for Runcorn and Helsby, said he was involved in an incident where he "threatened on the street following an evening out with friends"."
I’m with Big G on this one. Labour need to act pretty damn quick.
His “evening out” likely involved alcohol, and he certainly appears to have committed an assault on the injured constituent on the ground. If or not it’s acting in self defence needs to be quickly investigated and truth established, and Labour MUST remove whip while its investigating a case of potential unjustified drunken violence because they already have many MPs with whip removed for merely voting in parliament to remove the 2 child benefit cap - how can you commit violence on people in a community you are leading, and retain the whip, whilst others do not have it for merely voting against the 2 child benefit cap?
Is a by-election possible?
Maybe but it's the sort of place that will vote Labour regardless.
It's a bit blended.
Amesbury gained Weaver Vale from the Tories in 2017 and held on by under 1% in 2019. That is half of the new constituency, and solid red Runcorn the other half.
Labour had a notional 12% 2019 win on the new boundaries and put on 4% share in 24 - it is a county rather than a borough constituency, so that is not a surprise. Meanwhile Reform crept into a distant second, now 35% behind.
But, unlike a hell of a lot of already red seats, Labour put 22.8% onto their lead.
A Conservative party firing on all cylinders might have a go at this, but it's not red wall enough for a credible Reform challenge.
Lab hold on a very split result if it comes to it.
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there is no election in 2028.
Sorry. Beaten to it by Rottenborough
This all rather silly talk, of course there will be an election in 2028. But Harris won’t be in it because this loss will be pinned on her being a bad candidate. She isn’t great, but it’s actually fact voters felt better off under the Trump presidency whats won it for him. And this White House dropped the ball on the immigration issue, which Harris does own.
I don’t think we yet have a party anywhere in for the cost of living squeeze, who have survived re-election? Not even the Poles, who seemed very entrenched before the credit squeeze.
Trump won’t be a candidate in 2028 either, and I’m pretty sure he won’t last the 4 years of this term with old age clearly impacting him now - so President Vance is now a certainty to happen, if that is still a juicy looking betting opportunity.
Political Parties have access to far more data than we have, canvassing and number crunching. And meeting the voters. Something Nick P posted once, he knew he was out when asking not naturally Labour people he had whilst winning, who he needed in order to win, if they were still sticking with him, and could tell that they weren’t.
I think it was Mike Smithson who explained, once it came to two weeks before the 1992 General Election, he sensed Labour had lost and Tories had won. David Hares Labour Of Love play, from inside the Labour camp during the 1992 campaign, shows Labour leaders also knew they had lost when it got under 2 weeks to voting, even though they still had some polling leads left, and not much mainstream media saw the result coming.
So in terms of Political Betting, look, with your own eyes, what are you seeing and feeling, under two weeks to go, and one of these US campaigns has clearly gone flat as a pancake, and can’t raise a smile, whilst the other is all smiles and couldn’t be more chipper, thoughts already looking ahead to the transition - it means the comfortable Trump win won’t come as a surprise to any of us, will it? Both the campaign teams know it, and can’t hide it in their demeanours.
PB - like all the political social media - deals too much in details, so is pretty poor at realising what’s up when voters don’t do details, just basic broad brush like “I’m feeling worse off for a long time, but felt better off under the other one.”
Or, to use one of the older psephological tools, the Uniform National Swing, Kamala is down 2points on Biden2020 and Trump is up 4pts on Trump2020, a swing of 6pts. That means every state with a 2020 margin of 6pts or less of Biden over Trump goes to Trump, which means
...Trump wins Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10), a total of 11+16+16+6+20+10=79 more electoral votes, which would have changed 2020 from 306Biden 232Trump to 227Biden 309Trump.
In my area, there is an extensive network of public buses, none having more than one deck. In addition, I often see private buses ferrying Google and Microsoft employees around. The buses are private in two ways, privately owned, and hiding those inside.
I can take buses down to the Seattle waterfront, take a water taxi to West Seattle, then come back the same way to within a few blocks of my apartment.
For a dollar for the buses and $2.50 each way for the water taxis, since I am old enough to be on Social Security and Medicare.)
If Harris loses she might go for it in 2028, if Harris wins it will be in large part thanks to the Obamas carrying her over the line
If Harris loses there is no election in 2028.
Sorry. Beaten to it by Rottenborough
This all rather silly talk, of course there will be an election in 2028. But Harris won’t be in it because this loss will be pinned on her being a bad candidate. She isn’t great, but it’s actually fact voters felt better off under the Trump presidency whats won it for him. And this White House dropped the ball on the immigration issue, which Harris does own.
I don’t think we yet have a party anywhere in for the cost of living squeeze, who have survived re-election? Not even the Poles, who seemed very entrenched before the credit squeeze.
Trump won’t be a candidate in 2028 either, and I’m pretty sure he won’t last the 4 years of this term with old age clearly impacting him now - so President Vance is now a certainty to happen, if that is still a juicy looking betting opportunity.
Political Parties have access to far more data than we have, canvassing and number crunching. And meeting the voters. Something Nick P posted once, he knew he was out when asking not naturally Labour people he had whilst winning, who he needed in order to win, if they were still sticking with him, and could tell that they weren’t.
I think it was Mike Smithson who explained, once it came to two weeks before the 1992 General Election, he sensed Labour had lost and Tories had won. David Hares Labour Of Love play, from inside the Labour camp during the 1992 campaign, shows Labour leaders also knew they had lost when it got under 2 weeks to voting, even though they still had some polling leads left, and not much mainstream media saw the result coming.
So in terms of Political Betting, look, with your own eyes, what are you seeing and feeling, under two weeks to go, and one of these US campaigns has clearly gone flat as a pancake, and can’t raise a smile, whilst the other is all smiles and couldn’t be more chipper, thoughts already looking ahead to the transition - it means the comfortable Trump win won’t come as a surprise to any of us, will it? Both the campaign teams know it, and can’t hide it in their demeanours.
PB - like all the political social media - deals too much in details, so is pretty poor at realising what’s up when voters don’t do details, just basic broad brush like “I’m feeling worse off for a long time, but felt better off under the other one.”
That all sounds very persuasive - except the Democrats do this every election, win or lose.
Thank you for the article, and I really liked the author's point that "...With the age of the musket far behind him, Orwell fought for freedom instead by writing Nineteen Eighty-Four. The thing from which “all else follows”, as he has Winston Smith insist, is “the freedom to say that two plus two equals four”. Crucially, as the American historian Laura Beers points out in her new book Orwell’s Ghosts, his core belief was not in free speech, but true speech. That is not the freedom to insist that “two plus two equals five” – no matter how many followers you have..."
However the question is not why the American right hates Britain, but why the British right doesn't. People complain about Woke, but when you take trans out of the equation the Right is very comfortable with it, and we lock up people frequently for the content of their speech - never forget we put someone in jail for tweeting nastily about Captain Tom after he died. Kemi Badenoch is feted for being anti-Woke but (again if you neglect trans) she's right in it up to her armpit. As I said in my article on the Blob, Britain values safety not freedom, and when you understand that, all else follows.
Pippa Norris @PippaN15 Pundits go on and on blaming the D's for losing the 'working class' need to understand this terrific graph. Across Western democracies, education is the key cleavage, not income. Why? Because of cultural shifts in values, not economic disparities. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab036
Pippa Norris @PippaN15 Pundits go on and on blaming the D's for losing the 'working class' need to understand this terrific graph. Across Western democracies, education is the key cleavage, not income. Why? Because of cultural shifts in values, not economic disparities. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab036
Pippa Norris @PippaN15 Pundits go on and on blaming the D's for losing the 'working class' need to understand this terrific graph. Across Western democracies, education is the key cleavage, not income. Why? Because of cultural shifts in values, not economic disparities. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab036
Rather OT, but I've spent today venturing into the exciting world of Solar PV, batteries and dynamic pricing.
I'm staying at my in-laws, who about 12 months ago had about 3kw of PV and a 5kw battery installed, and a Octupus Agile tariff (half hourly variable pricing).
The system should work as follows: Octupus release prices at 4pm the day before. The inverter controller pulls pricing from the Octupus API, and decides in advance when to import power to charge the battery. The system uses the availabile PV to supply the house, then to charge the battery, then exports the leftovers. If there isn't enough PV for demand it draws from the battery until it hits 10% charge, then starts importing power.
I got involved because my in-laws changed ISP, and the internet to the inverter stopped working. (They don't understand half of what this system does never mind how to use it optimally - the intaller sort of configured it and fled the scene). It connects to the network via Wi-Fi only - no option for wired eithernet. After a lot of fighting with the inverter, and fitting a WiFi range extender, I got it to connect, although the connection still goes down every four or five hours, and requires the WiFi extender rebooting. I've no idea why, as a temporary fix I've used a smart plug to power it off for 2 mins every 4 hours.
Having made it "work", I started looking at the control software, and how it decides to manage battery - and quickly realised that it's pretty sub-optimal. It finds the cheapest 4 half-hourly periods between 1am and 6am, to import and charge the battery and also the cheapest 2 slots between 1pm 3pm. In mid-winter, that's possibly not a bad strategy, but looking at the data from August, days with decent PV numbers had a fully charged battery by 10am, and were exporting the PV generation for less than had been paid overnight to import and fill the battery.
There were settings in the inverter which might improve this, but my problem was that the optimal behaviour changes seasonally, and I'm not around every month to reconfigure everything.
Does anyone write integent control systems for this stuff? Ideally you'd use a weather forecast to predict the PV generation, log and model the house load so you'd have some expectation of future usage, and then import to work round that with as little unnecessary or low return battery cycling as possible.
It doesn't strike me as a particularly difficult bit of software to write, but no one seems to be offering it. Meanwhile, my in-laws are cheerfully hammering their batteries with a daily cycle of almost 100% for very small gains, and little hope of understanding what their system is choosing to do or why.
If this stuff is ever going to go fully mainstream, it needs to be simple, idiot proof and just work properly out of the box - it seems to me we've a very long way still to go.
Home Assistant works with an ocoptus api to achieve this for you. It is supposed to be daily resilient once set up. I have the batteries but no solar. It reduces by electricity bills by about 2/3.
Rather OT, but I've spent today venturing into the exciting world of Solar PV, batteries and dynamic pricing.
I'm staying at my in-laws, who about 12 months ago had about 3kw of PV and a 5kw battery installed, and a Octupus Agile tariff (half hourly variable pricing).
The system should work as follows: Octupus release prices at 4pm the day before. The inverter controller pulls pricing from the Octupus API, and decides in advance when to import power to charge the battery. The system uses the availabile PV to supply the house, then to charge the battery, then exports the leftovers. If there isn't enough PV for demand it draws from the battery until it hits 10% charge, then starts importing power.
I got involved because my in-laws changed ISP, and the internet to the inverter stopped working. (They don't understand half of what this system does never mind how to use it optimally - the intaller sort of configured it and fled the scene). It connects to the network via Wi-Fi only - no option for wired eithernet. After a lot of fighting with the inverter, and fitting a WiFi range extender, I got it to connect, although the connection still goes down every four or five hours, and requires the WiFi extender rebooting. I've no idea why, as a temporary fix I've used a smart plug to power it off for 2 mins every 4 hours.
Having made it "work", I started looking at the control software, and how it decides to manage battery - and quickly realised that it's pretty sub-optimal. It finds the cheapest 4 half-hourly periods between 1am and 6am, to import and charge the battery and also the cheapest 2 slots between 1pm 3pm. In mid-winter, that's possibly not a bad strategy, but looking at the data from August, days with decent PV numbers had a fully charged battery by 10am, and were exporting the PV generation for less than had been paid overnight to import and fill the battery.
There were settings in the inverter which might improve this, but my problem was that the optimal behaviour changes seasonally, and I'm not around every month to reconfigure everything.
Does anyone write integent control systems for this stuff? Ideally you'd use a weather forecast to predict the PV generation, log and model the house load so you'd have some expectation of future usage, and then import to work round that with as little unnecessary or low return battery cycling as possible.
It doesn't strike me as a particularly difficult bit of software to write, but no one seems to be offering it. Meanwhile, my in-laws are cheerfully hammering their batteries with a daily cycle of almost 100% for very small gains, and little hope of understanding what their system is choosing to do or why.
If this stuff is ever going to go fully mainstream, it needs to be simple, idiot proof and just work properly out of the box - it seems to me we've a very long way still to go.
Home Assistant works with an ocoptus api to achieve this for you. It is supposed to be daily resilient once set up. I have the batteries but no solar. It reduces by electricity bills by about 2/3.
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
Michigan Muslims endorse Donald J. Trump for president:
"He promises peace not war!"
I think their influence is overrated, a mere 2.4% of Michigan's population is Muslim.
Though of course if Trump won he would back Israel going to war with Iran as well as Hamas and Hezbollah so their idiocy would get what it deserves
It’s like they forgot about Trumps 4 years and his attempts at the Muslim travel ban . And it’s clear that Harris will be tougher on Israel if she wins , now she can’t say much . I’m astonished that this bunch of muppets have fallen for Trumps bullshxt .
They endorsed the bloke who moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Absolute f**kin morons.
I very much doubt all Michigan Muslims support Trump. But the more political Islam end of the spectrum you light get in a campaigning organisation: I expect they see eye to eye on the role of women, lynching gays and banning abortion side of things.
A US friend said to me that a decade ago, MAGA’s were all riled up about Islam, but now, some now think there’s some common ground (they were very impressed when the first majority-Muslim council stopped supporting Pride).
"Labour MP Mike Amesbury says he was involved in Cheshire 'incident' where he 'felt threatened'
Mike Amesbury, MP for Runcorn and Helsby, said he was involved in an incident where he "threatened on the street following an evening out with friends"."
I’m with Big G on this one. Labour need to act pretty damn quick.
His “evening out” likely involved alcohol, and he certainly appears to have committed an assault on the injured constituent on the ground. If or not it’s acting in self defence needs to be quickly investigated and truth established, and Labour MUST remove whip while its investigating a case of potential unjustified drunken violence because they already have many MPs with whip removed for merely voting in parliament to remove the 2 child benefit cap - how can you commit violence on people in a community you are leading, and retain the whip, whilst others do not have it for merely voting against the 2 child benefit cap?
Is a by-election possible?
Maybe but it's the sort of place that will vote Labour regardless.
It's a bit blended.
Amesbury gained Weaver Vale from the Tories in 2017 and held on by under 1% in 2019. That is half of the new constituency, and solid red Runcorn the other half.
Labour had a notional 12% 2019 win on the new boundaries and put on 4% share in 24 - it is a county rather than a borough constituency, so that is not a surprise. Meanwhile Reform crept into a distant second, now 35% behind.
But, unlike a hell of a lot of already red seats, Labour put 22.8% onto their lead.
A Conservative party firing on all cylinders might have a go at this, but it's not red wall enough for a credible Reform challenge.
Lab hold on a very split result if it comes to it.
Any equivalent area of the country, Labour would be in trouble. But this is the hinterland of Liverpool.
I have been on a bus 4x this year. That is a record in recent decades. Each time I was going to St Andrews or returning after a truly exceptional meal. Unfortunately for this thread I have to report that all of the buses were single deckers so the point was moot.
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
Get a grip
Starmer derangement syndrome. Even worse than the Miliband variety.
So does a section of the US left (eg the New Yorker). In each case, they’re treating the UK as phantom version of what the US will become, if their opponents get elected.
It's standard Starmer operating procedure, he makes reassuring noises before he goes off to shaft us
- he's not declaring war on middle England prior to rinsing their bank accounts - he's supporting pensioners while snaffling WFA - he wont pay "reparations" but is lining up billions we dont have
His lawyerly word games seem justified in his head but to the rest of us just seem base mendacity
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
Get a grip
Starmer derangement syndrome. Even worse than the Miliband variety.
Where near as bad as Motorist Derangment Syndrome. That’s pretty much as bad as it gets.
Mr. Eabhal, why is it deranged to wonder if Starmer will sign us up, insanely, for reparations when he's signed a document promising to to discuss 'reparative justice' or suchlike?
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
You may well be right, it does seem to be moving that way as more figures on the left, and not the batshit Zarah Sultana types, are coming round to it.
Anyone raising any objections to this utter lunacy will be deemed to be ‘racist’ too.
Mr. Eabhal, why is it deranged to wonder if Starmer will sign us up, insanely, for reparations when he's signed a document promising to to discuss 'reparative justice' or suchlike?
Or telling us we can sleep easier in our beds because weve given away the Chagos ?
There are a fair few bits of the person spec that Starmer doesn't tick. And for those who take the Great Leader thing more seriously than I do, that would go double. Acknowledging that a lefty dweeb is the national leader must hurt, and not in a fun way.
Trouble is, and this is the bit Conservatives hate to talk about, Starmer was the best option on the menu. And I'm not expecting the events of the next week to change that in the public's mind.
(See also London. Sadiq isn't a great Mayor, but if the Conservatives were serious about beating him, their first job is to put up a plausible alternative.)
Thank you for the article, and I really liked the author's point that "...With the age of the musket far behind him, Orwell fought for freedom instead by writing Nineteen Eighty-Four. The thing from which “all else follows”, as he has Winston Smith insist, is “the freedom to say that two plus two equals four”. Crucially, as the American historian Laura Beers points out in her new book Orwell’s Ghosts, his core belief was not in free speech, but true speech. That is not the freedom to insist that “two plus two equals five” – no matter how many followers you have..."
However the question is not why the American right hates Britain, but why the British right doesn't. People complain about Woke, but when you take trans out of the equation the Right is very comfortable with it, and we lock up people frequently for the content of their speech - never forget we put someone in jail for tweeting nastily about Captain Tom after he died. Kemi Badenoch is feted for being anti-Woke but (again if you neglect trans) she's right in it up to her armpit. As I said in my article on the Blob, Britain values safety not freedom, and when you understand that, all else follows.
Thank you for the article, and I really liked the author's point that "...With the age of the musket far behind him, Orwell fought for freedom instead by writing Nineteen Eighty-Four. The thing from which “all else follows”, as he has Winston Smith insist, is “the freedom to say that two plus two equals four”. Crucially, as the American historian Laura Beers points out in her new book Orwell’s Ghosts, his core belief was not in free speech, but true speech. That is not the freedom to insist that “two plus two equals five” – no matter how many followers you have..."
However the question is not why the American right hates Britain, but why the British right doesn't. People complain about Woke, but when you take trans out of the equation the Right is very comfortable with it, and we lock up people frequently for the content of their speech - never forget we put someone in jail for tweeting nastily about Captain Tom after he died. Kemi Badenoch is feted for being anti-Woke but (again if you neglect trans) she's right in it up to her armpit. As I said in my article on the Blob, Britain values safety not freedom, and when you understand that, all else follows.
A not entirely inaccurate characterisation of how the US right sees itself. It's a deeply warped view, though. As Trump's regularly applauded threats to jail those who criticise the Supreme Court, or to shut down news organisations which displease him suggests.
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
You may well be right, it does seem to be moving that way as more figures on the left, and not the batshit Zarah Sultana types, are coming round to it.
Anyone raising any objections to this utter lunacy will be deemed to be ‘racist’ too.
Tho I do believe musk’s prediction would come true before we shelled out cash. Britain will either elect a fascist government or we will be consumed in civil strife
You just know reparations are going to become the accepted ‘high status’ opinion. All the good people are going to be all on the the tax payers of people who never owned slaves to pay money to people who have never known slavery. Those that disagree will be the deplorables. To object would make you the moral equivalent of those who set fire to an asylum hostel. It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
You may well be right, it does seem to be moving that way as more figures on the left, and not the batshit Zarah Sultana types, are coming round to it.
Anyone raising any objections to this utter lunacy will be deemed to be ‘racist’ too.
Tho I do believe musk’s prediction would come true before we shelled out cash. Britain will either elect a fascist government or we will be consumed in civil strife
I think Leon has struck a seam of gold here. A subject that whips his adoring fans into a frenzy. This could be the theme of PB all the way to the next election.
I'm not complaining, it could be far worse. We could suffer endless posts of photographs from his holidays.
F1: as per last week, the pre-race ramble will be up late morning or even later, to give markets time to wake up.
Edited extra bit: slightly miffed I didn't back Sainz around 6.5 but there we are. On the plus side, the Ferrari title bet has fallen from 9.5 to 4.5.
Ferrari are definitely the favourites to score most points this race, given that only one McLaren and only one RedBull made it out of Q1. That said, the first corner could be carnage given the way the grid lines up.
Comments
There was never any plan to wind up the Moghul empire. I did not find his account in The Anarchy very illuminating. It’s something that likely requires a book of its own.
I’ve got personal experience of very educated people who fell down the MAGA hole.
Absolute f**kin morons.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zPRo0XvC4E
(*) Actually born and raised until 3 in the UK.
That's the ratio of upstairs:downstairs seats on a typical bus.
It's sorta inverse of the tax joke: "Tax the rich; and by rich, I mean anyone richer than me!" In this case, it is "Take stuff off the poor; and by poor, I mean anyone poorer than me!"
No way.
Trump: They want buildings in New York taken down and rebuilt without windows because the window is environmentally unfriendly. I guess the sun goes through and creates a warm feel. I like warm. I want a window in my apartment
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1850232788244660593
I mean its not like the old days in which you could get the White House and the fbi to decry something that was real and actually happened as fake, and then get social media to actively surpass the story, even removing the twitter account of a major American newspaper.
In LA, where I lived for a while, few with any choice at all will use the bus network, or let their kids do so. People look at you strangely if you aren't obviously destitute and you broach the subject.
It wasn't just us of course, the French and Belgian empires collapsed equally quickly as 1960 developed. The Portuguese lasted a bit longer.
Another masterclass tonight.
Or maybe they just actually believe that Trump is the better of two bad options - a reasonable viewpoint.
Bus-themed cuisine.
Here's just one example of 100s saying that college education is a huge divider on party choice.
Why education level has become the best predictor for how someone will vote
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/14/politics/the-biggest-predictor-of-how-someone-will-vote/index.html
"But there are still concerns about the way ActiVote recruits its respondents. First, there's the fact that anyone who wants to can download the app and participate in one of its polls."
https://abcnews.go.com/538/smartphone-app-conduct-political-polls/story?id=113417701
I found apart from pensioners and hipsters the buses were mainly used by blacks and hispanics so was a good way to meet a broader section of the community
That'll take our minds of the arrival of fascism in America.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1SJthmEiWk
I suspect by threatening every single elected person in Congress and the individual states with political violence if they don't do what the Cult want.
We've just yesterday seen Bezos fold without even a direct threat.
Sorry. Beaten to it by Rottenborough
https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/hostedimages/1603659060i/30288248.jpg
Mind you if Harris wins it is not impossible some of the deep red Trump states especially in the South would also try and secede and form a second Confederate States of America under Trump's leadership with his Florida home Mar a Lago his official residence
That may as well be the 18th century given what America is going through right now.
His “evening out” likely involved alcohol, and he certainly appears to have committed an assault on the injured constituent on the ground. If or not it’s acting in self defence needs to be quickly investigated and truth established, and Labour MUST remove whip while its investigating a case of potential unjustified drunken violence because they already have many MPs with whip removed for merely voting in parliament to remove the 2 child benefit cap - how can you commit violence on people in a community you are leading, and retain the whip, whilst others do not have it for merely voting against the 2 child benefit cap?
What makes you think Bezos yielded to pressure and that he didn't just use his influence in the way that he saw fit? Why do you think he bought the Washington Post in the first place?
Maybe its for the best. The division seems unresolvable. But then again southern states used to be Democrat.
What a mess.
Tristan Snell
@TristanSnell
·
2h
Michigan's record for early voting was 11,000 in one day.
Today is the first day of early voting in Michigan -- and over 100,000 people have now voted.
And there are still several hours left to go.
Pippa Norris
@PippaN15
Pundits go on and on blaming the D's for losing the 'working class' need to understand this terrific graph. Across Western democracies, education is the key cleavage, not income. Why? Because of cultural shifts in values, not economic disparities. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab036
https://x.com/PippaN15/status/1850208164056109387
I don’t think we yet have a party anywhere in for the cost of living squeeze, who have survived re-election? Not even the Poles, who seemed very entrenched before the credit squeeze.
Trump won’t be a candidate in 2028 either, and I’m pretty sure he won’t last the 4 years of this term with old age clearly impacting him now - so President Vance is now a certainty to happen, if that is still a juicy looking betting opportunity.
I'm staying at my in-laws, who about 12 months ago had about 3kw of PV and a 5kw battery installed, and a Octupus Agile tariff (half hourly variable pricing).
The system should work as follows: Octupus release prices at 4pm the day before. The inverter controller pulls pricing from the Octupus API, and decides in advance when to import power to charge the battery. The system uses the availabile PV to supply the house, then to charge the battery, then exports the leftovers. If there isn't enough PV for demand it draws from the battery until it hits 10% charge, then starts importing power.
I got involved because my in-laws changed ISP, and the internet to the inverter stopped working. (They don't understand half of what this system does never mind how to use it optimally - the intaller sort of configured it and fled the scene). It connects to the network via Wi-Fi only - no option for wired eithernet. After a lot of fighting with the inverter, and fitting a WiFi range extender, I got it to connect, although the connection still goes down every four or five hours, and requires the WiFi extender rebooting. I've no idea why, as a temporary fix I've used a smart plug to power it off for 2 mins every 4 hours.
Having made it "work", I started looking at the control software, and how it decides to manage battery - and quickly realised that it's pretty sub-optimal. It finds the cheapest 4 half-hourly periods between 1am and 6am, to import and charge the battery and also the cheapest 2 slots between 1pm 3pm. In mid-winter, that's possibly not a bad strategy, but looking at the data from August, days with decent PV numbers had a fully charged battery by 10am, and were exporting the PV generation for less than had been paid overnight to import and fill the battery.
There were settings in the inverter which might improve this, but my problem was that the optimal behaviour changes seasonally, and I'm not around every month to reconfigure everything.
Does anyone write integent control systems for this stuff? Ideally you'd use a weather forecast to predict the PV generation, log and model the house load so you'd have some expectation of future usage, and then import to work round that with as little unnecessary or low return battery cycling as possible.
It doesn't strike me as a particularly difficult bit of software to write, but no one seems to be offering it. Meanwhile, my in-laws are cheerfully hammering their batteries with a daily cycle of almost 100% for very small gains, and little hope of understanding what their system is choosing to do or why.
If this stuff is ever going to go fully mainstream, it needs to be simple, idiot proof and just work properly out of the box - it seems to me we've a very long way still to go.
https://www.mh370search.com/2024/05/05/new-search/
I think it was Mike Smithson who explained, once it came to two weeks before the 1992 General Election, he sensed Labour had lost and Tories had won. David Hares Labour Of Love play, from inside the Labour camp during the 1992 campaign, shows Labour leaders also knew they had lost when it got under 2 weeks to voting, even though they still had some polling leads left, and not much mainstream media saw the result coming.
So in terms of Political Betting, look, with your own eyes, what are you seeing and feeling, under two weeks to go, and one of these US campaigns has clearly gone flat as a pancake, and can’t raise a smile, whilst the other is all smiles and couldn’t be more chipper, thoughts already looking ahead to the transition - it means the comfortable Trump win won’t come as a surprise to any of us, will it? Both the campaign teams know it, and can’t hide it in their demeanours.
PB - like all the political social media - deals too much in details, so is pretty poor at realising what’s up when voters don’t do details, just basic broad brush like “I’m feeling worse off for a long time, but felt better off under the other one.”
Amesbury gained Weaver Vale from the Tories in 2017 and held on by under 1% in 2019. That is half of the new constituency, and solid red Runcorn the other half.
Labour had a notional 12% 2019 win on the new boundaries and put on 4% share in 24 - it is a county rather than a borough constituency, so that is not a surprise. Meanwhile Reform crept into a distant second, now 35% behind.
But, unlike a hell of a lot of already red seats, Labour put 22.8% onto their lead.
A Conservative party firing on all cylinders might have a go at this, but it's not red wall enough for a credible Reform challenge.
Lab hold on a very split result if it comes to it.
...Trump wins Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10), a total of 11+16+16+6+20+10=79 more electoral votes, which would have changed 2020 from 306Biden 232Trump to 227Biden 309Trump.
Or, in short, Trump wins 2024
(says the word "Damn" like Hangman did in Top Gun Maverick)
(Fun fact: "Water Taxis" are part of the bus system here: https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/metro/travel-options/water-taxi In good weather, the views can be quite nice.
I can take buses down to the Seattle waterfront, take a water taxi to West Seattle, then come back the same way to within a few blocks of my apartment.
For a dollar for the buses and $2.50 each way for the water taxis, since I am old enough to be on Social Security and Medicare.)
https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2024-10-26/labour-mp-to-cooperate-with-police-after-video-shows-him-berating-man
https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1850326584537858393
Trump's attacks on Labour are a small part of a darker political nightmare.
By Phil Tinline"
https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-essay/2024/10/why-the-american-right-loathes-modern-britain
"Let's get out of collective denial. Europeans must take their destiny into their own hands, regardless of who is elected 🇺🇸president"
https://x.com/DaveKeating/status/1849915556335407543
However the question is not why the American right hates Britain, but why the British right doesn't. People complain about Woke, but when you take trans out of the equation the Right is very comfortable with it, and we lock up people frequently for the content of their speech - never forget we put someone in jail for tweeting nastily about Captain Tom after he died. Kemi Badenoch is feted for being anti-Woke but (again if you neglect trans) she's right in it up to her armpit. As I said in my article on the Blob, Britain values safety not freedom, and when you understand that, all else follows.
F1: as per last week, the pre-race ramble will be up late morning or even later, to give markets time to wake up.
Edited extra bit: slightly miffed I didn't back Sainz around 6.5 but there we are. On the plus side, the Ferrari title bet has fallen from 9.5 to 4.5.
These agreements are used to drive discussion and policy. They are not just meaningless platitudes.
@Leon you may be interested and you were quite right too.
https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1850240969028825279?s=61
Check these images of Starmer at the summit looking sad, corpulent and utterly alone. An outwitted man promoted way beyond his abilities
https://x.com/thetvgrump/status/1850241877561274493?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
It’s done, the mindsets are being set as we speak, the columns being written, the ministers asking how the aid budget can be used to enrich these nations.
Next!
- he's not declaring war on middle England prior to rinsing their bank accounts
- he's supporting pensioners while snaffling WFA
- he wont pay "reparations" but is lining up billions we dont have
His lawyerly word games seem justified in his head but to the rest of us just seem base mendacity
You may well be right, it does seem to be moving that way as more figures on the left, and not the batshit Zarah Sultana types, are coming round to it.
Anyone raising any objections to this utter lunacy will be deemed to be ‘racist’ too.
There are a fair few bits of the person spec that Starmer doesn't tick. And for those who take the Great Leader thing more seriously than I do, that would go double. Acknowledging that a lefty dweeb is the national leader must hurt, and not in a fun way.
Trouble is, and this is the bit Conservatives hate to talk about, Starmer was the best option on the menu. And I'm not expecting the events of the next week to change that in the public's mind.
(See also London. Sadiq isn't a great Mayor, but if the Conservatives were serious about beating him, their first job is to put up a plausible alternative.)
It's a deeply warped view, though. As Trump's regularly applauded threats to jail those who criticise the Supreme Court, or to shut down news organisations which displease him suggests.
I'm not complaining, it could be far worse. We could suffer endless posts of photographs from his holidays.