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The scale of the Tory challenge (and why being a lawyer helps Jenrick) – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited October 20
    Cicero said:

    kle4 said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    It's time to start looking at new intakers for the next leader, and by the very fact of them being new it makes selecting the likely options near impossible. Exciting times.
    26 new Tory MPs elected on July 4th, though quite a few were retreads of various kinds.

    The Parliamentary Party is not exactly overburdened with fresh talents. Meanwhile checking out the resumes of the 64 new Liberal Democrat MPs there is real experience and talent in a variety of fields and several who have the potential to be national figures.

    The Tory brain drain,so obvious in their leadership campaign, applies across the party.
    The only new one I can name is Neil Shastri-Hurst, an army veteran/medical doctor turned barrister, and that's only because he was the candidate in the North Shropshire by-election, one of the earlier of the massive swings to the LDs in by-elections.

    Edit - fun fact, according to wiki the swing in North Shropshire from 2019 actually exceeded the swing fromthe by-election in 2021 - at 41.3% instead of 34.3%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    edited October 20
    kle4 said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore. And Threads...is that still going? I don't think I ever heard anybody talk about Threads other than the likes of the BBC who got very excited for a day about it.
    Musk may have wanted to back out of the purchase of twitter, and it may be struggling with various issues, but it remains the only game in town.
    The thing is the people who are often the most vocal critics are the ones still posting like crazy on twitter.

    Maybe something else will come along but really new social media that takes off is because it is offering something different (not a slightly better spade) e.g. Instagram was photo focused when the world was text, Facebook to connect with friends / local community (particularly the oldies), YouTube is video focused, Twitch streaming, TikTok short form mind rot videos....

    Facebook is probably the exception that it killed Friends Reunited / MySpace, but it wasn't slightly better and its not the frontend, its the backend that is the genius bit. The issue twitter has always had and any competitor is lots of people posting on that kind of platform like to be anonymous.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,584

    ydoethur said:

    Hmmmm.

    Speaking of Musk and dodgy practices, here's Mary Creagh on a landfill scandal that very much exercised @Tissue_Price while MP for the area:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv2gdng4pwo

    Her logic is ridiculous. I mean, paying her a salary has never been a good use of public money given she's terminally dimwitted, but that's not stopped her from taking it.

    I am quite content to offer my expertise to Mary Creagh for a modest cost. I suspect I am better qualified.

    Firstly to prevent this happening again ( OK, I know it is already happening again throughout the UK) don't bury gypsum/plasterboard. It is illegal but that doesn't seem to stop the practice, and secondly disbar convicted environmental criminals ( I used to be a colleague of this one) from operating any waste disposal or recovery facility. Thirdly, replace the EA/NRW/SEPA/NIEA with a more robust regulator (see the river pollution debacle). Perhaps Fred Carno's Army.

    My fee, which is in the post to 10 Downing Street for saving the gazillions of pounds about to be wasted on an inquiry is a mere £1m (have I undersold myself?)
    Yup. Back to actual enforcement.

    Not sure what a public enquiry might give us - perhaps recommend better enforcement. 10 years from now.
  • Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,231

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore. And Threads...is that still going? I don't think I ever heard anybody talk about Threads other than the likes of the BBC who got very excited for a day about it.
    BlueSky was made by a bunch of ex-Twitter people, and it’s very like Twitter used to be. It thus appears to be working better as a replacement for Twix than Mastodon. Threads is definitely still going. A July article, https://www.prdaily.com/threads-one-year-later/ , had:

    X 251M daily active users
    Threads 38M daily active users
    BlueSky 3M daily active users
    Mastodon 0.9M daily active users

    But BlueSky has seen some big increases since then, including one recent day with half a million new users: https://www.cnet.com/tech/bluesky-competitor-to-x-soars-to-top-five-spot-in-us-app-store/

    Meanwhile, WeChat is on 1.4 *billion* monthly active users.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    OT. A very good read and for those regular commentators who know little to nothing about the subject- a must read. What a fool Tony Blair was made even more so by Chirac telling him and predicting exactly where it would lead...

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/62214146-the-making-of-the-modern-middle-east
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,423
    Still too close to call in BC.

    https://vancouversun.com/news/bc-election-results-2024-close-race

    Will probably go to mandatory recounts in at least three ridings next week. (Those with less than a percentage).
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,693
    Fishing said:

    On topic, the Conservatives do indeed have a lot to do to win in 2029, but that Labour holds a lot of seats now isn't one of their challenges. As I showed on here many years ago, there's no convincing correlation between general election results five years apart, and the result of the last election, where a large Conservative majority was turned into a gigantic Labour one, will make that lack of a relationship even more pronounced. I might update my analysis at some point, though I appreciate the sophisticated econometrics needed isn't everybody's bag.

    The Conservative challenges are all about reuniting the right while avoiding seepage to the centre, finding a leader who is at least tolerable, developing some policies or at least a vision that resonates and hoping the electorate forgets the worst features of the last regime. Above all they need to hope that Labour's poor start isn't just teething troubles, it's how they are going to govern. That way forward would be the same if Labour had a majority of 1 or 600.

    So the list is:
    1) Uniting the right
    2) Destroying Reform
    3) Making LD/Lab unattractive to the centrist
    4) Resonating and distinctive non-populist but popular policies
    5) Overlooking the past back to at least 2010, and perhaps back to 1979
    6) Ensuring/relying on Labour doing badly.

    To which you need to add:
    7) Finding a leader combining the good bits of Attlee, Thatcher, Boris, Cameron, Blair and Churchill but none of the bad bits.

    Assuming all of this I agree that the 2024 GE result is not a very important starting point. However......
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,479
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore.
    Possibly. Probably.

    The difference now is it's immediately a much nicer place to be; my timeline isn't spammed with far-right accounts and the search function actually works.
    Bluesky has grown fast, but I think the threat to it is if twitter becomes sane.

    Currently something like 15m users aiui, and perhaps needs to built that tenfold.

    I've no idea how it will develop; I'm seeing my active travel niche shift over there quite heavily, and have not seen uk threads buried under pfaffers or Usonians, yet.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,209

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore. And Threads...is that still going? I don't think I ever heard anybody talk about Threads other than the likes of the BBC who got very excited for a day about it.
    I used to follow people on Twitter for their expertise. Maybe politics; maybe mediaeval architecture; maybe virology. The experts got drowned out by Musk turning on the sewer taps. So I have been missing that kind of expertise for a while but in the past few weeks I have seen it starting to build up on Bluesky. I don't know if it will be sustained but I hope so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    edited October 20

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore. And Threads...is that still going? I don't think I ever heard anybody talk about Threads other than the likes of the BBC who got very excited for a day about it.
    BlueSky was made by a bunch of ex-Twitter people, and it’s very like Twitter used to be. It thus appears to be working better as a replacement for Twix than Mastodon. Threads is definitely still going. A July article, https://www.prdaily.com/threads-one-year-later/ , had:

    X 251M daily active users
    Threads 38M daily active users
    BlueSky 3M daily active users
    Mastodon 0.9M daily active users

    But BlueSky has seen some big increases since then, including one recent day with half a million new users: https://www.cnet.com/tech/bluesky-competitor-to-x-soars-to-top-five-spot-in-us-app-store/

    Meanwhile, WeChat is on 1.4 *billion* monthly active users.
    Threads 38M daily active users - I think that is very much a fake number. Given the sign-up was tied into your Instagram account and you can't turn it off without losing that account you can't just ditch the platform, but anybody I see post on Threads is it just their Instagram reposted.

    Daily active users is always a dodgy number. How much engagement does Threads get is a better question.

    And WeChat is massive because, well in China it isn't optional. You can't exist without it. It basically impossible to do anything there without somebody requiring your WeChat.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    It's a complicated misunderstanding of the sing an dich principle.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    His latest rally was truly bizarre. But there are very few undecideds left and damn few changing their minds. Trump seems to have a slight edge in the battleground states and is now favourite with 538 winning 52k out of 100k simulations.

    This election is about turnout and Harris has legitimate hopes that her far better organised, much bigger and more motivated GOTV operation will give her an edge. But its a toss up. No pretending otherwise.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,053
    ydoethur said:

    Hmmmm.

    Speaking of Musk and dodgy practices, here's Mary Creagh on a landfill scandal that very much exercised @Tissue_Price while MP for the area:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv2gdng4pwo

    Her logic is ridiculous. I mean, paying her a salary has never been a good use of public money given she's terminally dimwitted, but that's not stopped her from taking it.

    So not entitrely terminally dimwitted then.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,209
    edited October 20
    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    You can choose who to follow. Question is where are the people who have something interesting to say, actively saying it?

    Increasingly that's Bluesky.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,693

    PJH said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    I wasn't impressed by Cleverley as a minister - but the reason for his support is that his flaws are less obvious than either Badenoch or Jenrick. I agree with you in theory, but the problem the Tories have in practice is - who is that entirely new superstar?
    Rory Stewart
    There's a pattern here. Add to Rory various centrist Tories gone AWOL, including Cameron, Osborne, Gawke, Grieve; add Burnham and D Miliband from Labour; Nick Clegg; Kate Forbes didn't stand in the last SNP leadership election. Even Farage has no serious successor in sight.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,294
    edited October 20
    Good morning

    There was a lot of excitement on here a few days ago on rumours HS2 was to be extended to Crewe, but Sky have just confirmed HS2 will only run between London and Birmingham

    Wes Streeting's interview with Trevor Phillips this morning was interesting as he confirmed he has agreed with Reeves funding for the NHS, but that fundamental reforms are needed especially in converting from analogue to digital, but also prevention though not sure providing a smart watch to everyone is not going to turn many into hypochondriacs

    I like Wes Streeting and he can get away with expanded use of the private sector, spending billions with them, that a conservative minister couldn't

    However, in the panel discussion that followed it was agreed that the NHS just cannot continue taking more amd more of the nations resources and eventually the whole model with need to change

    Maybe in time it will have to introduce charges, and even means testing, unless someone can come up with a magic bullet answer
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    DavidL said:

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    His latest rally was truly bizarre. But there are very few undecideds left and damn few changing their minds. Trump seems to have a slight edge in the battleground states and is now favourite with 538 winning 52k out of 100k simulations.

    This election is about turnout and Harris has legitimate hopes that her far better organised, much bigger and more motivated GOTV operation will give her an edge. But its a toss up. No pretending otherwise.
    It's a toss up and yet funnily enough also the end result could well not even be close, due to how the EC system works. As rcs1000 has noted, if the margin of error on polling falls on one side or the other even slightly consistently, it's comfortable win territory in EC votes at least.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore.
    Possibly. Probably.

    The difference now is it's immediately a much nicer place to be; my timeline isn't spammed with far-right accounts and the search function actually works.
    My personal For You timeline doesn't have very much of that as I don't follow politics on twitter, but even if it is a problem, there is a really easy solution, you just use the Following tab.
    The following tab (and lists) worked for me for a bit but the changes Elon made to the reply ordering basically killed it, because for me the value of Twitter was always the conversations and regardless of the subject, they are now all dominated by the stupidest people on the internet.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The worse Trump gets the better he polls .

    TIPP now has Trump at 49% v 47% in their tracking poll.

    This earlier in the week had Harris ahead by 4 points .

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,231
    kle4 said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore. And Threads...is that still going? I don't think I ever heard anybody talk about Threads other than the likes of the BBC who got very excited for a day about it.
    Musk may have wanted to back out of the purchase of twitter, and it may be struggling with various issues, but it remains the only game in town.
    What “town”? Let’s look at monthly active user figures, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_platforms_with_at_least_100_million_active_users Twitter has been falling in the ranking and is now down to 15th. The top five are Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp, Instagram and TikTok.

    OK, if we just focus on microblogging sites, then you could argue that Twitter is… 2nd. It’s still beaten by Weibo. It does remain the largest microblogging site outside of China, but user numbers are falling, and BlueSky is rising: https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/18/bluesky-surges-into-the-top-5-as-x-changes-blocks-permits-ai-training-on-its-data/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    dixiedean said:

    Still too close to call in BC.

    https://vancouversun.com/news/bc-election-results-2024-close-race

    Will probably go to mandatory recounts in at least three ridings next week. (Those with less than a percentage).

    This polling chart looked truly remarkable until looking up who the heck BCU were.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_British_Columbia#/media/File:43rd_British_Columbia_General_Election_polling.png

    I do like the quote from the NDP leader there though - classic post election swerve, needs must.
    NDP leader David Eby acknowledged that the Conservatives had spoken to some of British Columbians’ frustrations around public safety and affordability.

    He nevertheless believes voters delivered a majority for progressive values and committed to working with the Greens, despite his party calling a snap election in 2020 to get out from under such an arrangement.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    kle4 said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore. And Threads...is that still going? I don't think I ever heard anybody talk about Threads other than the likes of the BBC who got very excited for a day about it.
    Musk may have wanted to back out of the purchase of twitter, and it may be struggling with various issues, but it remains the only game in town.
    What “town”? Let’s look at monthly active user figures, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_platforms_with_at_least_100_million_active_users Twitter has been falling in the ranking and is now down to 15th. The top five are Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp, Instagram and TikTok.

    OK, if we just focus on microblogging sites, then you could argue that Twitter is… 2nd. It’s still beaten by Weibo. It does remain the largest microblogging site outside of China, but user numbers are falling, and BlueSky is rising: https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/18/bluesky-surges-into-the-top-5-as-x-changes-blocks-permits-ai-training-on-its-data/
    Yes I was referring to those companies seeking to directly displace twitter with like for like alternatives, such as the ones mentioned. And about western usage since whist I'm sure everyone would love to get a piece of the action in China, western twitter users are probably not about to mass switch to WeChat or Weibo.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,084
    edited October 20
    algarkirk said:

    Fishing said:

    On topic, the Conservatives do indeed have a lot to do to win in 2029, but that Labour holds a lot of seats now isn't one of their challenges. As I showed on here many years ago, there's no convincing correlation between general election results five years apart, and the result of the last election, where a large Conservative majority was turned into a gigantic Labour one, will make that lack of a relationship even more pronounced. I might update my analysis at some point, though I appreciate the sophisticated econometrics needed isn't everybody's bag.

    The Conservative challenges are all about reuniting the right while avoiding seepage to the centre, finding a leader who is at least tolerable, developing some policies or at least a vision that resonates and hoping the electorate forgets the worst features of the last regime. Above all they need to hope that Labour's poor start isn't just teething troubles, it's how they are going to govern. That way forward would be the same if Labour had a majority of 1 or 600.

    So the list is:
    1) Uniting the right
    2) Destroying Reform
    3) Making LD/Lab unattractive to the centrist
    4) Resonating and distinctive non-populist but popular policies
    5) Overlooking the past back to at least 2010, and perhaps back to 1979
    6) Ensuring/relying on Labour doing badly.

    To which you need to add:
    7) Finding a leader combining the good bits of Attlee, Thatcher, Boris, Cameron, Blair and Churchill but none of the bad bits.

    1), 2), and 4) are basically the same. 5) will happen, it's just a question of how quickly, but with today's social media-addled brains I would imagine people's memories are much shorter than they used to be. I'm coming to the view that 7) matters less than many people think it does.

    6) is the critical point - far more important than all the others put together. If that happens, then none of the rest are particularly important or they will take care of themselves. Luckily the current government seems to be doing its best to dig its own grave. The Conservatives must hope that continues, or else start planning for 2034 or 2039.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    Stupidity. Because unless you run it from Euston to Crewe at the very least, it won't pay for itself. The extra capacity is needed to turn a profit.

    So they're actually making it more expensive, not less, by shortening it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited October 20
    viewcode said:

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    It doesn't matter. Elon is buying Pennsylvania for him. This is what happens when the law does not apply and is not enforced on rich people.
    "That's the American Dream!" - Chief Justice John Roberts (probably).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,879
    FF43 said:

    ..

    spudgfsh said:

    The only way that the Tories can make enough gains to get close to a majority at the next election they need to do two things.
    1) Reconcile the divide in the right by merging with or destroying the reform party
    2) have policies which can take centre or centre right votes off the Lib Dems.

    Even the best leader in the world would struggle to do both of those but Jenrick and Badenoch will struggle to do one of them.

    I don't think the Conservatives will manage (1) as long as Farage is around. I think their real hope is he disappears. Europe is littered with the remains of Centre Right parties that have at inconsistently tried to co-opt and beat far right alternatives.
    So you think the problem is Farage rather than 20% of people wanting a party like Reform?
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 79
    If the Tory party thinks that abolishing the laws against discrimination so that people can be discriminated against because of their sex, religion, sexual orientation or race etc is the way to go then they are delusional.

    Treating people fairly is not the cause of the problems Britain faces.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    edited October 20
    ydoethur said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    Stupidity. Because unless you run it from Euston to Crewe at the very least, it won't pay for itself. The extra capacity is needed to turn a profit.

    So they're actually making it more expensive, not less, by shortening it.
    Again, its a very confusing government. All the briefing is they are going to fudge the debt rules to borrow a massive amount of money for infrastructure, but not HS2.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,846
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore.
    Possibly. Probably.

    The difference now is it's immediately a much nicer place to be; my timeline isn't spammed with far-right accounts and the search function actually works.
    Bluesky has grown fast, but I think the threat to it is if twitter becomes sane.

    Currently something like 15m users aiui, and perhaps needs to built that tenfold.

    I've no idea how it will develop; I'm seeing my active travel niche shift over there quite heavily, and have not seen uk threads buried under pfaffers or Usonians, yet.
    Not much sign of Twitter becoming more sane under current ownership.

    Mastodon was pretty rubbish, and BlueSky the first usable alternative. It could do with a better threading system but is increasingly usable.

    Even the "Following" function on Twitter was full of spammed replies by paid for blue ticks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    FF43 said:

    ..

    spudgfsh said:

    The only way that the Tories can make enough gains to get close to a majority at the next election they need to do two things.
    1) Reconcile the divide in the right by merging with or destroying the reform party
    2) have policies which can take centre or centre right votes off the Lib Dems.

    Even the best leader in the world would struggle to do both of those but Jenrick and Badenoch will struggle to do one of them.

    I don't think the Conservatives will manage (1) as long as Farage is around. I think their real hope is he disappears. Europe is littered with the remains of Centre Right parties that have at inconsistently tried to co-opt and beat far right alternatives.
    So you think the problem is Farage rather than 20% of people wanting a party like Reform?
    For the Tories that may be the case, since without Farage perhaps half of those people might want it but stick with the Tories instead.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479
    AnthonyT said:

    If the Tory party thinks

    I think I've spotted the issue...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,319

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore. And Threads...is that still going? I don't think I ever heard anybody talk about Threads other than the likes of the BBC who got very excited for a day about it.
    Twitter for me is just continously getting notifications I've been followed by suspiciously attractive women.
    Bluesky I get genuine interactions from the 'famous in their small niche' people I follow. It is less addictive which is probably good for me but bad for them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,846
    viewcode said:

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    It doesn't matter. Elon is buying Pennsylvania for him. This is what happens when the law does not apply and is not enforced on rich people.
    If Trump wins then it looks like the USA will be wholly owned by Musk.

    It's the next step in his evolution into the ultimate Bond Villain.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    edited October 20
    kle4 said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    I'm having a strong premonition that taking a 'direct role' to 'get a grip' on things will lead to some arbitrary changes and decisions which either increases costs further or causes entirely forseeable problems as a result. Or both.
    Well...and Louise Haigh experience of running a massive multi-billion pound infrastructure project....checks CV, when not doing Union / politics work, did ESG for an insurance company.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,479
    edited October 20
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore.
    Possibly. Probably.

    The difference now is it's immediately a much nicer place to be; my timeline isn't spammed with far-right accounts and the search function actually works.
    Bluesky has grown fast, but I think the threat to it is if twitter becomes sane.

    Currently something like 15m users aiui, and perhaps needs to built that tenfold.

    I've no idea how it will develop; I'm seeing my active travel niche shift over there quite heavily, and have not seen uk threads buried under pfaffers or Usonians, yet.
    Not much sign of Twitter becoming more sane under current ownership.

    Mastodon was pretty rubbish, and BlueSky the first usable alternative. It could do with a better threading system but is increasingly usable.

    Even the "Following" function on Twitter was full of spammed replies by paid for blue ticks.
    Does Bluesky have a functional business model? That would seem to matter for growth beyond the niche-alternative stage.

    (I don't know.)

    Hmmm. https://bsky.social/about/blog/7-05-2023-business-plan.
  • PJH said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    I wasn't impressed by Cleverley as a minister - but the reason for his support is that his flaws are less obvious than either Badenoch or Jenrick. I agree with you in theory, but the problem the Tories have in practice is - who is that entirely new superstar?
    Rory Stewart
    Well good luck with that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,584
    kle4 said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    I'm having a strong premonition that taking a 'direct role' to 'get a grip' on things will lead to some arbitrary changes and decisions which either increases costs further or causes entirely forseeable problems as a result. Or both.
    Is that based on what happens. every single time, politicians decide they are going to intervene to fix things?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,525
    .
    viewcode said:

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    It doesn't matter. Elon is buying Pennsylvania for him. This is what happens when the law does not apply and is not enforced on rich people.
    If you think that’s bad now, imagine what the US will be like if Trump is elected.
    It’s a coin toss now; we should be contingency planning.

    I’m not convinced by the “it won’t be that bad” takes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    edited October 20

    kle4 said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    I'm having a strong premonition that taking a 'direct role' to 'get a grip' on things will lead to some arbitrary changes and decisions which either increases costs further or causes entirely forseeable problems as a result. Or both.
    Is that based on what happens. every single time, politicians decide they are going to intervene to fix things?
    NHS IT system waves....

    I know somebody who was called in after many many years to try and help turn it around and said change after change after change left the code base just a total mess.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,479

    kle4 said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    I'm having a strong premonition that taking a 'direct role' to 'get a grip' on things will lead to some arbitrary changes and decisions which either increases costs further or causes entirely forseeable problems as a result. Or both.
    Well...and Louise Haigh experience of running a massive multi-billion pound infrastructure project....checks CV, when not doing Union / politics work, did ESG for an insurance company.
    I think the important thing is that she understands her own limitations in that case, and that she would need specialists who do know how to do it. It will give us a view of her suitability to be Transport Minister !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    I've never used Facebook, despite it having 3 billion monthly active users. This skews my perception of its worthiness since I only really encounter it in the context about stories about its weirdo CEO wanting everyone to spend all their time in virtual reality or whatever, so miss out on whatever it is billions of people find very engaging or useful about it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,797

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore.
    Possibly. Probably.

    The difference now is it's immediately a much nicer place to be; my timeline isn't spammed with far-right accounts and the search function actually works.
    My personal For You timeline doesn't have very much of that as I don't follow politics on twitter, but even if it is a problem, there is a really easy solution, you just use the Following tab.
    The following tab (and lists) worked for me for a bit but the changes Elon made to the reply ordering basically killed it, because for me the value of Twitter was always the conversations and regardless of the subject, they are now all dominated by the stupidest people on the internet.
    The problem with lists and following is that you remain firmly planted in your bubble. Once you leave them it's the wild west of bots, spam accounts and far-right blue ticks.

    Bluesky is very much my bubble at the moment but "Popular with friends" is a good idea. It depends on people fishing around in "Discover" though.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,198
    AnthonyT said:

    If the Tory party thinks that abolishing the laws against discrimination so that people can be discriminated against because of their sex, religion, sexual orientation or race etc is the way to go then they are delusional.

    Treating people fairly is not the cause of the problems Britain faces.

    The Conservative Party is made up of people who are wealthier and older than the average and will adopt policies that speaks to their priorities. As those people have their financial and basic survival needs met, those priorities will be more abstract. Badenoch and Jenrick represent two strands of this: Badenoch being culture war, Jenrick being antii-immigration. Badenoch is expanding her appeal from anti-trans to anti-single-mothers and coded references to violent immigrants, but Jenrick hasn't seen the need to expand in the other direction. This is why I think she will win the leadership.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    kle4 said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    I'm having a strong premonition that taking a 'direct role' to 'get a grip' on things will lead to some arbitrary changes and decisions which either increases costs further or causes entirely forseeable problems as a result. Or both.
    Is that based on what happens. every single time, politicians decide they are going to intervene to fix things?
    Look, half baked short termist interventions may not have worked the previous 99 times we tried it, but have you even stopped to consider it might the 100th time?

    More seriously, as people we can never quite imagine it to be true that big issues cannot always be solved quickly or cheaply, or they already would have been, it takes care, time, effort, and may only achieve modest rewards. We know it is true so many times, but this time, this time, I've got a good feeling about things.
  • My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,797
    kle4 said:

    I've never used Facebook, despite it having 3 billion monthly active users. This skews my perception of its worthiness since I only really encounter it in the context about stories about its weirdo CEO wanting everyone to spend all their time in virtual reality or whatever, so miss out on whatever it is billions of people find very engaging or useful about it.

    It's boomers in facebook groups complaining about dog snatchers, trying to find lost cats and complaining about e-bikes. Facebook marketplace is excellent though, sold £000's of second hand stuff on it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    edited October 20
    kle4 said:

    I've never used Facebook, despite it having 3 billion monthly active users. This skews my perception of its worthiness since I only really encounter it in the context about stories about its weirdo CEO wanting everyone to spend all their time in virtual reality or whatever, so miss out on whatever it is billions of people find very engaging or useful about it.

    It skews very old in the West (but is also very popular in some unexpected countries). But also, in places like the US, it is basically the community noticeboard. Everybody joins their local neighbourhood one, their suburb, their city etc to pass on info about the dodgy bloke who walks his dog at 4am etc
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    kle4 said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    I'm having a strong premonition that taking a 'direct role' to 'get a grip' on things will lead to some arbitrary changes and decisions which either increases costs further or causes entirely forseeable problems as a result. Or both.
    Is that based on what happens. every single time, politicians decide they are going to intervene to fix things?
    Its almost like predicting that any upgrade in any App is going to reduce utility and efficacy, isn't it?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,548
    edited October 20

    kle4 said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    I'm having a strong premonition that taking a 'direct role' to 'get a grip' on things will lead to some arbitrary changes and decisions which either increases costs further or causes entirely forseeable problems as a result. Or both.
    Is that based on what happens. every single time, politicians decide they are going to intervene to fix things?
    NHS IT system waves....

    I know somebody who was called in after many many years to try and help turn it around and said change after change after change left the code base just a total mess.
    Good Morning everyone. At least it's not raining here. Yet.

    As someone who was once, very peripherally, involved with the NHS IT system I rather feel that it was a good idea well before it's time.

    And, as the addendum to the post I started to comment on suggests, the changes meant change upon change, not start again from square one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,039

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    They do if you have it set up that way
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited October 20

    kle4 said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    I'm having a strong premonition that taking a 'direct role' to 'get a grip' on things will lead to some arbitrary changes and decisions which either increases costs further or causes entirely forseeable problems as a result. Or both.
    Is that based on what happens. every single time, politicians decide they are going to intervene to fix things?
    NHS IT system waves....
    And promptly breaks? I mean, I bet the system has problems with handshaking, never mind waving.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,209

    FF43 said:

    ..

    spudgfsh said:

    The only way that the Tories can make enough gains to get close to a majority at the next election they need to do two things.
    1) Reconcile the divide in the right by merging with or destroying the reform party
    2) have policies which can take centre or centre right votes off the Lib Dems.

    Even the best leader in the world would struggle to do both of those but Jenrick and Badenoch will struggle to do one of them.

    I don't think the Conservatives will manage (1) as long as Farage is around. I think their real hope is he disappears. Europe is littered with the remains of Centre Right parties that have at inconsistently tried to co-opt and beat far right alternatives.
    So you think the problem is Farage rather than 20% of people wanting a party like Reform?
    I think the Conservatives want to go back to how they were before and the natural party of government. They won't do that as long as the 20% who used to vote for them vote for another party. And if those people want Reform they won't want the Conservatives. The Conservatives need the Reform option to disappear.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    edited October 20

    kle4 said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    I'm having a strong premonition that taking a 'direct role' to 'get a grip' on things will lead to some arbitrary changes and decisions which either increases costs further or causes entirely forseeable problems as a result. Or both.
    Is that based on what happens. every single time, politicians decide they are going to intervene to fix things?
    NHS IT system waves....

    I know somebody who was called in after many many years to try and help turn it around and said change after change after change left the code base just a total mess.
    Good Morning everyone. At least it's not raining here. Yet.

    As someone who was once, very peripherally, involved with the NHS IT system I rather feel that it was a good idea well before it's time.

    And, as the addendum to post I started to comment on suggests, the changes meant change upon change, not start again from square one.
    The idea was definitely right, not even sure it was before its time. It was very poor project management and interference all the way along the chain. Also, one other problem government always face, the very best software devs don't usually work for the sort of companies that bid for these kind of government contracts, they just aren't very interesting jobs to them e.g. all the grads want to work for a FAANG company or perhaps in the games industry, and if they do leave a Google it is to join OpenAI or some of these cool start-ups doing music generation or 3d novel view capture, they aren't leaving it to join Crapita.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    It doesn't matter. Elon is buying Pennsylvania for him. This is what happens when the law does not apply and is not enforced on rich people.
    If Trump wins then it looks like the USA will be wholly owned by Musk.

    It's the next step in his evolution into the ultimate Bond Villain.
    Can you imagine the GOP furore if a billionaire Dem supporter was doing what Musk was doing in Pennsylvania.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    If you send a cheque - especially for a relatively small amount - a not inconsiderable number of people will just not bother cashing it.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,548

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    I get a cheque annually from a charity whose books I audit. And it sends cheques to the (student) recipients of it's bounty.
    I must have a word with the secretary about reducing costs by using transfers, although I fear that might be a bridge too far for him.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    It doesn't matter. Elon is buying Pennsylvania for him. This is what happens when the law does not apply and is not enforced on rich people.
    If Trump wins then it looks like the USA will be wholly owned by Musk.

    It's the next step in his evolution into the ultimate Bond Villain.
    He reminds me more of Zorg in the Fifth element.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited October 20
    Nigelb said:

    .

    viewcode said:

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    It doesn't matter. Elon is buying Pennsylvania for him. This is what happens when the law does not apply and is not enforced on rich people.
    If you think that’s bad now, imagine what the US will be like if Trump is elected.
    It’s a coin toss now; we should be contingency planning.

    I’m not convinced by the “it won’t be that bad” takes.
    It might have been true last time. That was before January 6th, Trump's mental decline, the ousting of any restraining influence, and a blank check to commit crimes from the Supreme Court.

    There's still way too much complacency that because the system just about held up to an assault on democratic norms in 2020, that it will in 2024.

    The 'we managed last time we will again' argument is just nonsense, as though history is bound to repeat itself exactly and nothing has changed.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,797
    edited October 20

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    It's an option when you make the claim via your personal tax account.

    The cheques are to reduce fraud, particularly for overseas transfers - is your son living in a different country?
  • My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    If you send a cheque - especially for a relatively small amount - a not inconsiderable number of people will just not bother cashing it.

    To be fair this was a four figure sum and a one off
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,231

    FF43 said:

    ..

    spudgfsh said:

    The only way that the Tories can make enough gains to get close to a majority at the next election they need to do two things.
    1) Reconcile the divide in the right by merging with or destroying the reform party
    2) have policies which can take centre or centre right votes off the Lib Dems.

    Even the best leader in the world would struggle to do both of those but Jenrick and Badenoch will struggle to do one of them.

    I don't think the Conservatives will manage (1) as long as Farage is around. I think their real hope is he disappears. Europe is littered with the remains of Centre Right parties that have at inconsistently tried to co-opt and beat far right alternatives.
    So you think the problem is Farage rather than 20% of people wanting a party like Reform?
    The thing about Reform UK is that they are a populist party. They don’t actually have a coherent plan for the country. Their leadership and their voters barely agree. They are, thus, very dependent on having a charismatic leader who can paper over the cracks… or rather giant fissures… in what they supposedly stand for.
  • Rerun of 4 years of Trump. We have already had four years of him. Painting a picture that it will be worse than the last time is unrealistic. We survived it and we will will survive another period of it. It will be better in some ways than last time and worse as well. It will balance out. Harris said clearly in her debate with Trump that you are about helping your friends with tax concessions. Correct and anything else he can do I am sure he will accomodate. He has no interest in helping the voters who may put him there. They will be conned for a second time. Manipulation which is quite easy to see threw is the name of the game. Trump has a trader mentality and knows how to appeal and sign up his target audience. If he wins I wonder if he will do a full term or be gone within 18 months?
  • Eabhal said:

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    It's an option when you make the claim via your personal tax account.

    The cheques are to reduce fraud, particularly for overseas transfers - is your son living in a different country?
    Yes - he lives in Canada but has a UK bank account
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,548

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    If you send a cheque - especially for a relatively small amount - a not inconsiderable number of people will just not bother cashing it.

    I don't ignore any of the few cheques I receive; I take them down to the Post Office, get one of their dedicated envelopes and pay them in.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore.
    Possibly. Probably.

    The difference now is it's immediately a much nicer place to be; my timeline isn't spammed with far-right accounts and the search function actually works.
    Bluesky has grown fast, but I think the threat to it is if twitter becomes sane.

    Currently something like 15m users aiui, and perhaps needs to built that tenfold.

    I've no idea how it will develop; I'm seeing my active travel niche shift over there quite heavily, and have not seen uk threads buried under pfaffers or Usonians, yet.
    Not much sign of Twitter becoming more sane under current ownership.

    Mastodon was pretty rubbish, and BlueSky the first usable alternative. It could do with a better threading system but is increasingly usable.

    Even the "Following" function on Twitter was full of spammed replies by paid for blue ticks.
    Does Bluesky have a functional business model? That would seem to matter for growth beyond the niche-alternative stage.

    (I don't know.)

    Hmmm. https://bsky.social/about/blog/7-05-2023-business-plan.
    I remember people fretting about this with Facebook and Google, it's never been a problem in practice. If millions of people are spending large parts of their day looking at your app you'll find a way to make money from them.

    It's possible that the way they find will make the user experience worse but the point of having an open protocol (atproto) is that if Bluesky dick you around you can move your account to a different provider and still keep your followers etc.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,712
    edited October 20

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    We pay the milkman by cheque every week.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    edited October 20

    Rerun of 4 years of Trump. We have already had four years of him. Painting a picture that it will be worse than the last time is unrealistic. We survived it and we will will survive another period of it. It will be better in some ways than last time and worse as well. It will balance out. Harris said clearly in her debate with Trump that you are about helping your friends with tax concessions. Correct and anything else he can do I am sure he will accomodate. He has no interest in helping the voters who may put him there. They will be conned for a second time. Manipulation which is quite easy to see threw is the name of the game. Trump has a trader mentality and knows how to appeal and sign up his target audience. If he wins I wonder if he will do a full term or be gone within 18 months?

    Trump unstable, unthinking and rash nature means that the system finds it quite easy to deploy the checks and balances against his decisions and people working for him don't last to see things through. He got very little done last time.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,797

    Eabhal said:

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    It's an option when you make the claim via your personal tax account.

    The cheques are to reduce fraud, particularly for overseas transfers - is your son living in a different country?
    Yes - he lives in Canada but has a UK bank account
    I would guess they defaulted to a cheque based on his location then. You can always just phone/message and ask for BACs into a UK account instead.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,548

    Rerun of 4 years of Trump. We have already had four years of him. Painting a picture that it will be worse than the last time is unrealistic. We survived it and we will will survive another period of it. It will be better in some ways than last time and worse as well. It will balance out. Harris said clearly in her debate with Trump that you are about helping your friends with tax concessions. Correct and anything else he can do I am sure he will accomodate. He has no interest in helping the voters who may put him there. They will be conned for a second time. Manipulation which is quite easy to see threw is the name of the game. Trump has a trader mentality and knows how to appeal and sign up his target audience. If he wins I wonder if he will do a full term or be gone within 18 months?

    Your fourth sentence might be applicable to us in Western Europe, but will it apply to the USA?
  • PJHPJH Posts: 660

    PJH said:

    The flaw with Cleverley as the saviour in a couple of years time is the spectacular lack of political nous he demonstrated in managing to lose from the position he found himself in. If the next Tory leader does turn out to be a dud, they may be better off looking at someone entirely new.

    I wasn't impressed by Cleverley as a minister - but the reason for his support is that his flaws are less obvious than either Badenoch or Jenrick. I agree with you in theory, but the problem the Tories have in practice is - who is that entirely new superstar?
    Rory Stewart
    Yes, good suggestion except that he doesn't seem interested in resuming a parliamentary career. But he illustrates two problems the Conservative party currently has:

    Politically he is much closer to the LDs than the Conservatives, and it is not his views that have changed much.

    If he (or someone like him) did manage to be elected leader somehow, there would be a mass exodus to Reform. Maybe that would be best for the Conservatives and the country in the long run, but it would probably hole the party below the waterline before it had a chance to rebuild.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    edited October 20
    Andy_JS said:

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    We pay the milkman by cheque every week.
    Aren't milkman about as rare as cheques these days? Unicorn experience of having one and them wanting a cheque!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,846
    Andy_JS said:

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    We pay the milkman by cheque every week.
    I get several cheques per week from private patients, though now the majority transfer directly.

    I haven't written a cheque in years but particularly the older generation still do.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,712
    edited October 20
    Every time something happened which we were told would dent Trump's popularity, like 6th January, I thought to myself this isn't going to make much difference to his level of support: because people aren't voting for him for positive reasons. It's almost entirely a protest vote. The only way to reduce his support is by tackling the root causes of the problems in the US.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,913

    Andy_JS said:

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    We pay the milkman by cheque every week.
    Aren't milkman about as rare as cheques these days? Unicorn experience of having one and them wanting a cheque!
    We not only have a milkman, but also a competitor milkman trying to chusel his custom away from him. Payment all done by app though. Never see him in person.

    My wife was very keen to order from the milkman on thr basis of use-it-or-lose-it. But I'm not sure I find the arrangement massively satisfactory. The amount of milk I require isn't consistent.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    edited October 20
    Andy_JS said:

    Every time something happened which we were told would dent Trump's popularity, like 6th January, I thought to myself this isn't going to make much difference to his level of support: because people aren't voting for him for positive reasons. It's almost entirely a protest vote.

    I think that is true for both sides.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,913

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    If you send a cheque - especially for a relatively small amount - a not inconsiderable number of people will just not bother cashing it.

    I don't ignore any of the few cheques I receive; I take them down to the Post Office, get one of their dedicated envelopes and pay them in.
    I got a cheque last month for £15 from the DVLA and lost it almost immediately. Most annoying.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,198
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    It doesn't matter. Elon is buying Pennsylvania for him. This is what happens when the law does not apply and is not enforced on rich people.
    If Trump wins then it looks like the USA will be wholly owned by Musk.

    It's the next step in his evolution into the ultimate Bond Villain.
    He reminds me more of Zorg in the Fifth element.
    Hugo Drax. 😎
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,319

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    My follower count on Bluesky has quintupled over the last 48 hours.

    (but remains less than 5% of my twitter followers)

    Is BlueSky the latest Mastodon? Strangely all the people who said never posting on tw@tter ever again, find me on Mastodon, now never post on Mastodon anymore.
    Possibly. Probably.

    The difference now is it's immediately a much nicer place to be; my timeline isn't spammed with far-right accounts and the search function actually works.
    My personal For You timeline doesn't have very much of that as I don't follow politics on twitter, but even if it is a problem, there is a really easy solution, you just use the Following tab.
    The following tab (and lists) worked for me for a bit but the changes Elon made to the reply ordering basically killed it, because for me the value of Twitter was always the conversations and regardless of the subject, they are now all dominated by the stupidest people on the internet.
    For me that's the advantage of politicalbetting.com.
    It's got the smartest collection of people I disagree with on the Internet.
  • RHuntRHunt Posts: 44
    Andy_JS said:

    Every time something happened which we were told would dent Trump's popularity, like 6th January, I thought to myself this isn't going to make much difference to his level of support: because people aren't voting for him for positive reasons. It's almost entirely a protest vote. The only way to reduce his support is by tackling the root causes of the problems in the US.

    They dont care that Trumps an a.sehole. They just hate the liberal elites and want to hurt them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,312
    edited October 20
    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    We pay the milkman by cheque every week.
    Aren't milkman about as rare as cheques these days? Unicorn experience of having one and them wanting a cheque!
    We not only have a milkman, but also a competitor milkman trying to chusel his custom away from him. Payment all done by app though. Never see him in person.

    My wife was very keen to order from the milkman on thr basis of use-it-or-lose-it. But I'm not sure I find the arrangement massively satisfactory. The amount of milk I require isn't consistent.
    I can't see that working out, as I can't imagine there is much margin in the first place being a milkman. There is a set price on how cheap you can get milk and you can't charge too much of a premium as everywhere sells milk.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,975

    Andy_JS said:

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    We pay the milkman by cheque every week.
    Aren't milkman about as rare as cheques these days? Unicorn experience of having one and them wanting a cheque!
    Our village is served by two milk delivery companies. We get deliveries twice a week.
  • Rerun of 4 years of Trump. We have already had four years of him. Painting a picture that it will be worse than the last time is unrealistic. We survived it and we will will survive another period of it. It will be better in some ways than last time and worse as well. It will balance out. Harris said clearly in her debate with Trump that you are about helping your friends with tax concessions. Correct and anything else he can do I am sure he will accomodate. He has no interest in helping the voters who may put him there. They will be conned for a second time. Manipulation which is quite easy to see threw is the name of the game. Trump has a trader mentality and knows how to appeal and sign up his target audience. If he wins I wonder if he will do a full term or be gone within 18 months?

    Your fourth sentence might be applicable to us in Western Europe, but will it apply to the USA?
    I get your point. We will see how it pans out for us and them! Time will tell.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    If (when) Trump wins we have some very serious decisions to make.

    It has to be doubtful that NATO, the cornerstone of our defence policy since WW2, will survive in its current form.

    Western Europe will have to make a decision about whether they are willing to support Ukraine sufficiently in the absence of American support. This would be a major financial effort.

    We have to decide how we respond to his absurd Tariff policies. In many respects we are already in a post GATT world given the consistent US blocking of new judges to the court but this would rip away any pretense.

    We may have the USA in the same category as China, where we are nervous about having significant parts of our IT infrastructure dependent on them.

    Taiwan and SK will, if anything, be even more scared than western Europe.

    So massive increases in defence spending for less security than we enjoy now, a much more hands on role in a major European war, a major increase in economic instability and a world where dictators get to do what they want provided they say Donald is a nice guy. Overall, I consider this to be suboptimal.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,584
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    I'm having a strong premonition that taking a 'direct role' to 'get a grip' on things will lead to some arbitrary changes and decisions which either increases costs further or causes entirely forseeable problems as a result. Or both.
    Is that based on what happens. every single time, politicians decide they are going to intervene to fix things?
    Its almost like predicting that any upgrade in any App is going to reduce utility and efficacy, isn't it?
    I was part of team that released a version of an app (for an alt-bank) that was smaller in download size, smaller in installed footprint, used less resources when running, had probably lower bug counts than the earlier versions, was faster on most operations.

    Oh, and was more secure (adopted the latest standards for encryption).

    And we added being able to download your account history as CSV.

    It can be done.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,548
    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    We pay the milkman by cheque every week.
    Aren't milkman about as rare as cheques these days? Unicorn experience of having one and them wanting a cheque!
    We not only have a milkman, but also a competitor milkman trying to chusel his custom away from him. Payment all done by app though. Never see him in person.

    My wife was very keen to order from the milkman on thr basis of use-it-or-lose-it. But I'm not sure I find the arrangement massively satisfactory. The amount of milk I require isn't consistent.
    I think there's a milkman around here but we don't use enough to order it regularly.
  • RHuntRHunt Posts: 44
    viewcode said:

    AnthonyT said:

    If the Tory party thinks that abolishing the laws against discrimination so that people can be discriminated against because of their sex, religion, sexual orientation or race etc is the way to go then they are delusional.

    Treating people fairly is not the cause of the problems Britain faces.

    The Conservative Party is made up of people who are wealthier and older than the average and will adopt policies that speaks to their priorities. As those people have their financial and basic survival needs met, those priorities will be more abstract. Badenoch and Jenrick represent two strands of this: Badenoch being culture war, Jenrick being antii-immigration. Badenoch is expanding her appeal from anti-trans to anti-single-mothers and coded references to violent immigrants, but Jenrick hasn't seen the need to expand in the other direction. This is why I think she will win the leadership.
    I remember when the tories were anti single mothers in the mid 90s. Then Cameron came in and declared how wonderful they were. So we have gone full circle.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,920

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    In 2016 Trump was generally lucid, but also occasionally funny if somewhat rude.

    In 2020 Trump was more angry and muddled. It was generally offputting but you could usually decipher what he was trying to say.

    In 2024 Trump is frequently babbling and incoherent. At times it is genuinely difficult to figure out what the hell he is on about. What's really worrying is that we probably don't even see him at his worst, that occurs in private.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My eldest son has just received a tax refund from HMRC by cheque

    I haven't seen a cheque for ages

    Why do they not make a direct payment into the taxpayers bank account

    Another outdated idea still beiing used by a government department

    We pay the milkman by cheque every week.
    Aren't milkman about as rare as cheques these days? Unicorn experience of having one and them wanting a cheque!
    We not only have a milkman, but also a competitor milkman trying to chusel his custom away from him. Payment all done by app though. Never see him in person.

    My wife was very keen to order from the milkman on thr basis of use-it-or-lose-it. But I'm not sure I find the arrangement massively satisfactory. The amount of milk I require isn't consistent.
    But what about your wife's needs?
  • RHunt said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Every time something happened which we were told would dent Trump's popularity, like 6th January, I thought to myself this isn't going to make much difference to his level of support: because people aren't voting for him for positive reasons. It's almost entirely a protest vote. The only way to reduce his support is by tackling the root causes of the problems in the US.

    They dont care that Trumps an a.sehole. They just hate the liberal elites and want to hurt them.
    I believe you are correct and they are mainly unhappy people that are unable to do anything about making themselves content and will always play the blame game. They need to look at themselves and see where they can make improvements to their personality and improve their mental health which definitely needs rebalancing.
  • kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    viewcode said:

    Trump is acting much more oddly than previously.

    First Kamala Harris will be banning cows, now he's obsessed with Arnold Palmer's penis.

    It doesn't matter. Elon is buying Pennsylvania for him. This is what happens when the law does not apply and is not enforced on rich people.
    If you think that’s bad now, imagine what the US will be like if Trump is elected.
    It’s a coin toss now; we should be contingency planning.

    I’m not convinced by the “it won’t be that bad” takes.
    It might have been true last time. That was before January 6th, Trump's mental decline, the ousting of any restraining influence, and a blank check to commit crimes from the Supreme Court.

    There's still way too much complacency that because the system just about held up to an assault on democratic norms in 2020, that it will in 2024.

    The 'we managed last time we will again' argument is just nonsense, as though history is bound to repeat itself exactly and nothing has changed.
    The hysteria on here about a second Trump term is bordering on near-comical levels here. Anyone would think we are in Berlin in January 1933.

    The US system is exactly set up to ensure that there is no dictatorship. And, yes, that includes the system by which every state get two Senators and you have to ensure a sufficient appeal to enough states to win a Presidential election instead of just going for the Popular Vote. Yes, you know, that system which supporters of one party on here want to get rid because it doesn't suit their candidate.

    Trump's second term will be a mixture, although if the Republicans do get control of the Senate and the House this November (very likely in the first, a knife-edge on the second), maybe more will be done. But we are not heading into a Gilead-style dictatorship.

    And, yes, it does look like he will win. But don't take the opinion polls for that. Look at what several of the Democrat Senatorial candidates are doing on the ground - basically backing out of even mentioning Harris when it comes to their campaigns.

    https://www.axios.com/2024/10/18/senate-democrats-campaign-ads-trump-2024
    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/19/us/harris-trump-election#casey-pennsylvania-senate-ad-trump

    And, if Harris does lose, she will only have herself to blame, for giving Trump the ammunition he needs, ammunition which is proving effective:

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/kamala-harris-donald-trump-television-ad-trans-prisoners-activists.html

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Ministers are to take take a direct role in overseeing the building of the HS2 rail line to try to "get a grip" on the rising cost of the high speed route between London and Birmingham.

    The government also confirmed it will not reinstate previous plans to run the high-speed line to Crewe and Manchester, which were scrapped under the previous Conservative government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

    I'm having a strong premonition that taking a 'direct role' to 'get a grip' on things will lead to some arbitrary changes and decisions which either increases costs further or causes entirely forseeable problems as a result. Or both.
    Is that based on what happens. every single time, politicians decide they are going to intervene to fix things?
    Its almost like predicting that any upgrade in any App is going to reduce utility and efficacy, isn't it?
    I was part of team that released a version of an app (for an alt-bank) that was smaller in download size, smaller in installed footprint, used less resources when running, had probably lower bug counts than the earlier versions, was faster on most operations.

    Oh, and was more secure (adopted the latest standards for encryption).

    And we added being able to download your account history as CSV.

    It can be done.
    I am shocked that either Apple or Microsoft allowed the introduction of such an App. Every increase in their size and complexity drives the need for additional equipment from them. I assumed that was the point.
  • RHuntRHunt Posts: 44
    Sad news about Chris Hoy. Seems to be lots of young people getting cancer these days.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,053
    DavidL said:

    If (when) Trump wins we have some very serious decisions to make.

    It has to be doubtful that NATO, the cornerstone of our defence policy since WW2, will survive in its current form.

    Western Europe will have to make a decision about whether they are willing to support Ukraine sufficiently in the absence of American support. This would be a major financial effort.

    We have to decide how we respond to his absurd Tariff policies. In many respects we are already in a post GATT world given the consistent US blocking of new judges to the court but this would rip away any pretense.

    We may have the USA in the same category as China, where we are nervous about having significant parts of our IT infrastructure dependent on them.

    Taiwan and SK will, if anything, be even more scared than western Europe.

    So massive increases in defence spending for less security than we enjoy now, a much more hands on role in a major European war, a major increase in economic instability and a world where dictators get to do what they want provided they say Donald is a nice guy. Overall, I consider this to be suboptimal.

    I’m old enough to remember Trump I: The Wakening when certain parties considered Trump would put the UK at the front of the queue and the special relationship would be more special than ever. Blithe, innocent days.

    Of course Starmer & co will still go into arsecrawling mode. Let’s hope they don’t hoor out poor old Charles for another state visit.
  • RHunt said:

    viewcode said:

    AnthonyT said:

    If the Tory party thinks that abolishing the laws against discrimination so that people can be discriminated against because of their sex, religion, sexual orientation or race etc is the way to go then they are delusional.

    Treating people fairly is not the cause of the problems Britain faces.

    The Conservative Party is made up of people who are wealthier and older than the average and will adopt policies that speaks to their priorities. As those people have their financial and basic survival needs met, those priorities will be more abstract. Badenoch and Jenrick represent two strands of this: Badenoch being culture war, Jenrick being antii-immigration. Badenoch is expanding her appeal from anti-trans to anti-single-mothers and coded references to violent immigrants, but Jenrick hasn't seen the need to expand in the other direction. This is why I think she will win the leadership.
    I remember when the tories were anti single mothers in the mid 90s. Then Cameron came in and declared how wonderful they were. So we have gone full circle.
    Yes. It is all rubbish. They say anything to appeal to the voter they are targeting. I remember Dav coming out with the hug a hoodie line. The best one! The problem is politicians sometimes have contempt for the voters they sell to. It is sad.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,053
    RHunt said:

    Sad news about Chris Hoy. Seems to be lots of young people getting cancer these days.

    Notably prevalent in airline pilots I believe.
This discussion has been closed.