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The scale of the Tory challenge (and why being a lawyer helps Jenrick) – politicalbetting.com

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  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,308
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Moldova votes Yes to joining EU by 744 votes, 50.03%


    Wow, that’s all rather close!
    Just think how cross the Kremlin are this morning.

    A small happy thought in a dismal world.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479

    Miss JGP, normally I'd agree on the narrow margin being not a great basis for serious action is a valid view. But given how much Russia seems to have been trying to influence things, getting the hell away from that seems a very good thing.

    Given the Russians and their patsy Ilan Shor were literally bribing large numbers of people to vote No a la Elon Musk, that's a significant win for the Moldovan government.

    Whether the President can survive the result in the other election is another question.
  • NEW THREAD

  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,074

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Moldova votes Yes to joining EU by 744 votes, 50.03%


    Wow, that’s all rather close!
    Just think how cross the Kremlin are this morning.

    A small happy thought in a dismal world.
    Close enough for some decent spin though. As I noted above, 49% not agreeing to enshrining EU accession in the constitution = 49% of Moldovans are pro-Russian, in Kremlin speak. Exactly the approach taken to votes for Party of the Regions in Ukraine pre-2014.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632

    I've cut my losses on Harris for the Presidency, now.

    I still think she'll be ahead in the popular vote.

    John Kerry is the only Democratic nominee for President to lose the popular vote since the end of the Cold War.

    The Harris campaign would have to do really badly to lose the popular vote.
  • I watch history videos quite a lot, and was surprised this particular channel had one about Ben Shapiro being wrong (apparently he's been talking about the end of the [Western] Roman Empire):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMeWsh7H6RI

    I recently read Hans-Ulrich Wiemer's biography of Theoderic (who ruled Rome/Italy after the Odoacer, who ousted the last Western emperor). Imperial structures including the class structure and tax system continued to function essentially unchanged from the empire. The army did change, although given Theoderic's kingdom was military safe and even expanded its borders, the Romans within the Ostrogothic Kingdom of Italy seemed ok with that.

    Given the the “barbarians” were either Roman state employees, or from the same cultural group as the state employees in question (foreign military, hired), it is entirely unsurprising that they thought in terms of a hostile take over.

    Rome was, in addition, explicitly run by the rich. No one was elected to the Senate in its entire history. So it was largely a management change. And the previous C-Suite had been running things very badly for a long time.
    Wasn’t it a touch more complicated than that? In that the senate was principally made of up of people who had served as magistrates (the elected element of the Roman Republic) , and appointed to that position from existing magistrates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,403

    I've cut my losses on Harris for the Presidency, now.

    I still think she'll be ahead in the popular vote.

    John Kerry is the only Democratic nominee for President to lose the popular vote since the end of the Cold War.

    The Harris campaign would have to do really badly to lose the popular vote.
    Had Kerry won Ohio he would have won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. Ohio was closer in 2004 than the national vote
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,975

    How the actual fuck have a year of Islamist protests been allowed, everywhere, since Oct 7?

    Central London is a Jew no go area at the weekend

    How the fuck did that happen?
    https://amzn.eu/d/9Pt90Y5
    An excellent book.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543

    This does not sound like good news.


    Jon Ralston
    @RalstonReports
    The early voting blog is updated!

    Bottom line: Dems have a small lead, but Rs surely are bullish because lead was much bigger after one day in 2020. Clark firewall is very small, will need to get bigger or Harris in trouble.

    Lots of charts, data.

    https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1848040543231652016

    NB this is only about Nevada.
This discussion has been closed.