That way madness lies – politicalbetting.com

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That way madness lies – politicalbetting.com

Unreturned (or unprocessed) ballots are a ~ 15% redder than returned ones but there are still more ~270k more Dems in that batch

Read the full story here

DavidL

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

Oh and a first! Not had one for a while.

LostPassword

These numbers are very important to watch when it comes to the count of the vote, as one PBer did with some success for PA at the last election.

Nigelb

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

That an odd metaphor.

A vote is a vote. Once it's cast, it's a certain vote.
Which you don't have to get out on the day,

Eating your own corn means something quite different.

LostPassword

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

Oh and a first! Not had one for a while.

A vote in the ballot box is worth two that haven't been cast yet.

It reduces the number of people you have to chivvy to the polling booth on election day.

Nigelb

LostPassword said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

Oh and a first! Not had one for a while.

A vote in the ballot box is worth two that haven't been cast yet.

Not if the final turnout is well north of 60%, it isn't.

LostPassword

Nigelb said:

LostPassword said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

Oh and a first! Not had one for a while.

A vote in the ballot box is worth two that haven't been cast yet.

Not if the final turnout is well north of 60%, it isn't.

Perhaps some dodgy rounding has been applied.

But, if 40% of the electorate vote early, and the overall turnout is 60%, then only 1-in-3 of registered voters who didn't vote early actually vote on the day.

Nigelb

Reposting this interview from this morning.

Jon Ralston is the polling gurus' polling guru. He is a legend in the trade who has never called Nevada wrong.
Now, he doesn't have all that much more clue than we do.

Nevada’s Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-2024-election-in-nevada-is-so-hard-to-predict.html
...But the main reason for the tremendous explosion of independent voters is an automatic voter-registration law that started having an effect about three years ago. If you go to the DMV, you can register to vote as a Democrat or a Republican, but if you don’t, you are auto-registered as an independent and nonpartisan.

So that has changed the dynamic. And I think a lot of these voters, who I call zombie voters — they don’t even know they’re registered. They don’t care that much about politics. They’re not that engaged. So it’s unclear what real percentage of those voters are actually going to cast a ballot.

And that makes your life a lot more difficult in terms of predicting this stuff. You’re the Oracle of Nevada — the one guy in the country who’s been pretty accurate with early-voting data in the past.

What do you mean pretty accurate?

Sorry, I meant 100 percent.

But seriously, my crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct. And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin. I really have no idea right now. It’s so close, and both sides think it’s within a point or so...

DavidL

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

That an odd metaphor.

A vote is a vote. Once it's cast, it's a certain vote.
Which you don't have to get out on the day,

Eating your own corn means something quite different.

I think it works. What I mean by it is that the massive GOTV operation is encouraging early voting with some success. A vote cast is in the bank but if you would have got the vote anyway at some point either early or on election day you are not actually any further ahead for your effort.

In this case the massive early voting effort in Georgia is certainly bringing some voting forward but it is not necessarily increasing the number of votes to be cast for your candidate. Its a similar point to that which @TSE is making in the header. This huge wave of early voting does not necessarily mean the Democrats are doing better than they otherwise would have done.

Nigelb

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:

LostPassword said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

Oh and a first! Not had one for a while.

A vote in the ballot box is worth two that haven't been cast yet.

Not if the final turnout is well north of 60%, it isn't.

Perhaps some dodgy rounding has been applied.

But, if 40% of the electorate vote early, and the overall turnout is 60%, then only 1-in-3 of registered voters who didn't vote early actually vote on the day.

It was 66% in 2020.
The year it might be higher - though with all the electoral roll shenanigans, who knows ?

OldKingCole

LostPassword said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

Oh and a first! Not had one for a while.

A vote in the ballot box is worth two that haven't been cast yet.

It reduces the number of people you have to chivvy to the polling booth on election day.

It's not like the old Norn policy is it? "Vote early, vote often!"

TimT

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

SeaShantyIrish2

Here in WA State, where all elections are vote-by-mail (with option for in-person voting) today is the day that county election departments mail out ballots to active registered voters.

In the meantime . . .

Seattle Times - New WA poll shows Harris way ahead, including with moderates, independents

A new poll offers a measure of how much the presidential race has changed among Washington voters in the last three months. . . .

In a mid-July poll, 50% of likely Washington voters were backing President Joe Biden, then still in the race, compared to Trump’s 36%. With Vice President Kamala Harris taking over after Biden dropped out, support for the Democratic ticket has risen to 57% among likely voters contacted between Oct. 9 and Oct. 14, giving Harris a 22-point lead.

The poll shows virtually no gender gap in Washington, unlike nationally, where Harris is more popular with women and Trump with men. The findings also depict the vice president winning by large margins among the state’s moderates and independents, and 10% of respondents who voted for Trump in 2020 said they plan to support Harris this year. She is even ahead among voters who say crime is their top issue, normally a winning one for Republicans.

The economy is another issue that often breaks for conservatives, but 56% of respondents said they trust Harris more than Trump to improve matters, despite Republicans blaming Biden administration policies for an increase in inflation.

[But] Trump has a 7-point lead among those who say cost of living is a top issue. And affordability concerns may be resonating particularly strongly with younger voters , who appear to be somewhat more open to Trump.

The WA Poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. Conducted online October 9-14 by SurveyUSA, the WA Poll reached 1,000 adults, including 703 people likely to vote in the general election . . .

. . . The apparent surge in Democratic support puts Harris on track to win Washington by at least as great a margin as Biden did in 2020, when he got 58% of the vote, to Trump’s 39%. . . .

Another surprising finding shows Harris leading in rural and Eastern Washington. This runs counter to numerous past elections in which Republicans have swept those parts of the state, suggesting the result is likely related to polling challenges.

“Republican voters in solidly blue states aren’t especially enthusiastic at the moment, so it’s likely that even with the overall weighting of data, the rural respondents who agree to take the survey are more left-leaning than the rural population as a whole,” said Ken Alper of SurveyUSA, which conducted the poll.

SSI - Here is link to some crosstabs from this poll; presume they will add more later after the Seattle Times has published data.
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8f2b493a-4caf-4016-8859-14dab92e8405

DavidL

Nigelb said:

Reposting this interview from this morning.

Jon Ralston is the polling gurus' polling guru. He is a legend in the trade who has never called Nevada wrong.
Now, he doesn't have all that much more clue than we do.

Nevada’s Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-2024-election-in-nevada-is-so-hard-to-predict.html
...But the main reason for the tremendous explosion of independent voters is an automatic voter-registration law that started having an effect about three years ago. If you go to the DMV, you can register to vote as a Democrat or a Republican, but if you don’t, you are auto-registered as an independent and nonpartisan.

So that has changed the dynamic. And I think a lot of these voters, who I call zombie voters — they don’t even know they’re registered. They don’t care that much about politics. They’re not that engaged. So it’s unclear what real percentage of those voters are actually going to cast a ballot.

And that makes your life a lot more difficult in terms of predicting this stuff. You’re the Oracle of Nevada — the one guy in the country who’s been pretty accurate with early-voting data in the past.

What do you mean pretty accurate?

Sorry, I meant 100 percent.

But seriously, my crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct. And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin. I really have no idea right now. It’s so close, and both sides think it’s within a point or so...

Its slightly worrying for Harris that Navada is that close. It should have been a reasonably easy one to hold onto. Its been fairly consistently Democratic of late.

Pulpstar

Vote early, vote often.

Nigelb

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

That an odd metaphor.

A vote is a vote. Once it's cast, it's a certain vote.
Which you don't have to get out on the day,

Eating your own corn means something quite different.

I think it works. What I mean by it is that the massive GOTV operation is encouraging early voting with some success. A vote cast is in the bank but if you would have got the vote anyway at some point either early or on election day you are not actually any further ahead for your effort.

In this case the massive early voting effort in Georgia is certainly bringing some voting forward but it is not necessarily increasing the number of votes to be cast for your candidate. Its a similar point to that which @TSE is making in the header. This huge wave of early voting does not necessarily mean the Democrats are doing better than they otherwise would have done.

If it's a very tight race, then being able to further concentrate your GOTV effort might well be an advantage. And the GOP tactic (which has been pretty blatant in Georgia) of ensuring long polling lines in Democratic strongholds won't be as effective either.

But I completely agree with the thrust of the header; early voting figures don't tell you all that much. But they are undoubtedly useful to the campaigns.

Malmesbury

LostPassword said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

Oh and a first! Not had one for a while.

A vote in the ballot box is worth two that haven't been cast yet.

It reduces the number of people you have to chivvy to the polling booth on election day.

I’m from Belfast

500 votes in the graveyard are worth more.

Especially after they vote 5 times each.

TimT

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

That an odd metaphor.

A vote is a vote. Once it's cast, it's a certain vote.
Which you don't have to get out on the day,

Eating your own corn means something quite different.

I think it works. What I mean by it is that the massive GOTV operation is encouraging early voting with some success. A vote cast is in the bank but if you would have got the vote anyway at some point either early or on election day you are not actually any further ahead for your effort.

In this case the massive early voting effort in Georgia is certainly bringing some voting forward but it is not necessarily increasing the number of votes to be cast for your candidate. Its a similar point to that which @TSE is making in the header. This huge wave of early voting does not necessarily mean the Democrats are doing better than they otherwise would have done.

I agree and disagree. A 100% already voted vote is worth more than a 100% intent future voter, given that intent is not action. I bet Jimmy Carter understands that, voting on the first available date.

DavidL

TimT said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

That an odd metaphor.

A vote is a vote. Once it's cast, it's a certain vote.
Which you don't have to get out on the day,

Eating your own corn means something quite different.

I think it works. What I mean by it is that the massive GOTV operation is encouraging early voting with some success. A vote cast is in the bank but if you would have got the vote anyway at some point either early or on election day you are not actually any further ahead for your effort.

In this case the massive early voting effort in Georgia is certainly bringing some voting forward but it is not necessarily increasing the number of votes to be cast for your candidate. Its a similar point to that which @TSE is making in the header. This huge wave of early voting does not necessarily mean the Democrats are doing better than they otherwise would have done.

I agree and disagree. A 100% already voted vote is worth more than a 100% intent future voter, given that intent is not action. I bet Jimmy Carter understands that, voting on the first available date.

Nice to see you back without the R2D2 add ons today.

Carnyx

Malmesbury said:

LostPassword said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

Oh and a first! Not had one for a while.

A vote in the ballot box is worth two that haven't been cast yet.

It reduces the number of people you have to chivvy to the polling booth on election day.

I’m from Belfast

500 votes in the graveyard are worth more.

Especially after they vote 5 times each.

Oh, we had that in the Scottish devolution referendum of 1979 (admittedly only one Unionist per corpse though).

PS Not sure how the Welsh one worked ...

Nigelb

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

Reposting this interview from this morning.

Jon Ralston is the polling gurus' polling guru. He is a legend in the trade who has never called Nevada wrong.
Now, he doesn't have all that much more clue than we do.

Nevada’s Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-2024-election-in-nevada-is-so-hard-to-predict.html
...But the main reason for the tremendous explosion of independent voters is an automatic voter-registration law that started having an effect about three years ago. If you go to the DMV, you can register to vote as a Democrat or a Republican, but if you don’t, you are auto-registered as an independent and nonpartisan.

So that has changed the dynamic. And I think a lot of these voters, who I call zombie voters — they don’t even know they’re registered. They don’t care that much about politics. They’re not that engaged. So it’s unclear what real percentage of those voters are actually going to cast a ballot.

And that makes your life a lot more difficult in terms of predicting this stuff. You’re the Oracle of Nevada — the one guy in the country who’s been pretty accurate with early-voting data in the past.

What do you mean pretty accurate?

Sorry, I meant 100 percent.

But seriously, my crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct. And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin. I really have no idea right now. It’s so close, and both sides think it’s within a point or so...

Its slightly worrying for Harris that Navada is that close. It should have been a reasonably easy one to hold onto. Its been fairly consistently Democratic of late.

We have no idea if it's that close.
That's the real message of the article.

But it's undeniable that the Covid recession (and in turn, therefore, the spike in inflation) hit Nevada far more than most states, and that's not helpful to an incumbent.

Pulpstar

I reckon the interest rate vote will be 8-1. Dinghra voting for a half point cut instead.

nico679

More early voters just helps the campaigns to need less resources on Election Day . But it’s more important for Dems in Red States who have tried to suppress turnout in urban areas by reducing the amount of polling stations , drop boxes etc . Hoping that there will be huge lines on the day and people will give up and go home .

The GOP don’t even bother to hide their voter suppression.

SeaShantyIrish2

Associated Press - 19 mayoral candidates compete to lead Portland, Oregon, in a race with homelessness at its heart

A lot of political changes are coming to Portland, Oregon.

The open mayoral race in the state’s most populous city features 19 candidates — all vying to lead after years of growing frustration over homeless encampments. Among them: three City Council members, including one ensnared in a driving record scandal; a stripper; and a trucking company CEO vowing to end unsheltered homelessness in 12 months.

Whoever wins the mayoral seat will oversee a completely new system of government. Portland is expanding its City Council from five to 12 members, who will be elected by voters in individual districts rather than citywide, and adding a city manager position. And all the candidates — including the nearly 100 running for the new council seats — will be elected by ranked-choice voting for the first time. . . .

https://apnews.com/article/portland-oregon-mayor-race-election-8b4141b06c59de9edebaf67262eae084

SSI - Here is link at Multnomah County Elections dept for ranked-choice ballot (in one Portland precinct) for Mayor and City Council

https://multco-web7-psh-files-usw2.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/5-1-2801-1-RCV-NON-EN.pdf

Anabobazina

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/

Another poll with labour sub 30%

Another poll with Labour leading the Tories decisively, despite doing unpopular stuff and a hypocritical media whining on about trivial drivel like Currygate Swiftgate day after tedious day.

Next.

DavidL

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

Sandpit

Pulpstar said:

I reckon the interest rate vote will be 8-1. Dinghra voting for a half point cut instead.

Should the half-point cut not be favourite, after the inflation rate came in well under target?

DavidL

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Associated Press - 19 mayoral candidates compete to lead Portland, Oregon, in a race with homelessness at its heart

A lot of political changes are coming to Portland, Oregon.

The open mayoral race in the state’s most populous city features 19 candidates — all vying to lead after years of growing frustration over homeless encampments. Among them: three City Council members, including one ensnared in a driving record scandal; a stripper; and a trucking company CEO vowing to end unsheltered homelessness in 12 months.

Whoever wins the mayoral seat will oversee a completely new system of government. Portland is expanding its City Council from five to 12 members, who will be elected by voters in individual districts rather than citywide, and adding a city manager position. And all the candidates — including the nearly 100 running for the new council seats — will be elected by ranked-choice voting for the first time. . . .

https://apnews.com/article/portland-oregon-mayor-race-election-8b4141b06c59de9edebaf67262eae084

SSI - Here is link at Multnomah County Elections dept for ranked-choice ballot (in one Portland precinct) for Mayor and City Council

https://multco-web7-psh-files-usw2.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/5-1-2801-1-RCV-NON-EN.pdf

Surely the stripper is value for a win by the bare minimum?

viewcode

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

Reposting this interview from this morning.

Jon Ralston is the polling gurus' polling guru. He is a legend in the trade who has never called Nevada wrong.
Now, he doesn't have all that much more clue than we do.

Nevada’s Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-2024-election-in-nevada-is-so-hard-to-predict.html
...But the main reason for the tremendous explosion of independent voters is an automatic voter-registration law that started having an effect about three years ago. If you go to the DMV, you can register to vote as a Democrat or a Republican, but if you don’t, you are auto-registered as an independent and nonpartisan.

So that has changed the dynamic. And I think a lot of these voters, who I call zombie voters — they don’t even know they’re registered. They don’t care that much about politics. They’re not that engaged. So it’s unclear what real percentage of those voters are actually going to cast a ballot.

And that makes your life a lot more difficult in terms of predicting this stuff. You’re the Oracle of Nevada — the one guy in the country who’s been pretty accurate with early-voting data in the past.

What do you mean pretty accurate?

Sorry, I meant 100 percent.

But seriously, my crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct. And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin. I really have no idea right now. It’s so close, and both sides think it’s within a point or so...

Its slightly worrying for Harris that Navada is that close. It should have been a reasonably easy one to hold onto. Its been fairly consistently Democratic of late.

...and why did Trump campaign in Colorado???

Anabobazina

On topic, au contraire – analysis of EVs has in the past proven a good guide to the eventual result.

One (possible) exception was 2020 because Trump discouraged the practice for reasons known only to himself.

But, in general, it has been a useful indicator, at least as I recall.

Anabobazina

LostPassword said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

Oh and a first! Not had one for a while.

A vote in the ballot box is worth two that haven't been cast yet.

It reduces the number of people you have to chivvy to the polling booth on election day.

Yes the better idiom would be: "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."

DavidL

viewcode said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

Reposting this interview from this morning.

Jon Ralston is the polling gurus' polling guru. He is a legend in the trade who has never called Nevada wrong.
Now, he doesn't have all that much more clue than we do.

Nevada’s Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-2024-election-in-nevada-is-so-hard-to-predict.html
...But the main reason for the tremendous explosion of independent voters is an automatic voter-registration law that started having an effect about three years ago. If you go to the DMV, you can register to vote as a Democrat or a Republican, but if you don’t, you are auto-registered as an independent and nonpartisan.

So that has changed the dynamic. And I think a lot of these voters, who I call zombie voters — they don’t even know they’re registered. They don’t care that much about politics. They’re not that engaged. So it’s unclear what real percentage of those voters are actually going to cast a ballot.

And that makes your life a lot more difficult in terms of predicting this stuff. You’re the Oracle of Nevada — the one guy in the country who’s been pretty accurate with early-voting data in the past.

What do you mean pretty accurate?

Sorry, I meant 100 percent.

But seriously, my crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct. And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin. I really have no idea right now. It’s so close, and both sides think it’s within a point or so...

Its slightly worrying for Harris that Navada is that close. It should have been a reasonably easy one to hold onto. Its been fairly consistently Democratic of late.

...and why did Trump campaign in Colorado???

Or California?

Maybe he is running out of towns daft enough to not require the money for the stadia and security up front.

SeaShantyIrish2

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

Reposting this interview from this morning.

Jon Ralston is the polling gurus' polling guru. He is a legend in the trade who has never called Nevada wrong.
Now, he doesn't have all that much more clue than we do.

Nevada’s Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-2024-election-in-nevada-is-so-hard-to-predict.html
...But the main reason for the tremendous explosion of independent voters is an automatic voter-registration law that started having an effect about three years ago. If you go to the DMV, you can register to vote as a Democrat or a Republican, but if you don’t, you are auto-registered as an independent and nonpartisan.

So that has changed the dynamic. And I think a lot of these voters, who I call zombie voters — they don’t even know they’re registered. They don’t care that much about politics. They’re not that engaged. So it’s unclear what real percentage of those voters are actually going to cast a ballot.

And that makes your life a lot more difficult in terms of predicting this stuff. You’re the Oracle of Nevada — the one guy in the country who’s been pretty accurate with early-voting data in the past.

What do you mean pretty accurate?

Sorry, I meant 100 percent.

But seriously, my crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct. And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin. I really have no idea right now. It’s so close, and both sides think it’s within a point or so...

Its slightly worrying for Harris that Navada is that close. It should have been a reasonably easy one to hold onto. Its been fairly consistently Democratic of late.

Easy to see that you do NOT understand the fundamental nature of Nevada politics & elections.

Which is that, due to (nearly) continuous massive, indeed expolsive population growth, the state's electorate changes virtually from year-to-year, and most definitely one presidential election to the next.

Thus extrapolating what transpired in the previous election to the next is fraught with peril, for politicos, pollsters, analyists (such as Jon Ralston) AND (lest we forget) punters.

williamglenn

Biden’s legacy:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1846202315524526169

I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed.

nico679

Nevada is not really a blue state and elections are often very close there . This election is very much complicated by the big increase in non-affiliated voters there . The Dems voter reg lead has narrowed significantly . Because of the auto-reg there you have to actively change that from non-affiliated and quite a few people simply won’t bother . I still expect Dems to edge Nevada helped by the Culinary Union who are crucial in helping the Dems build up their Clark county firewall .

Anabobazina

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

(Slightly) fake news.

Today's TIPP is Harris +4.

https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking-poll-day-3-harris-widens-popular-vote-lead-while-trump-maintains-edge-in-electoral-projections/

DavidL

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

Reposting this interview from this morning.

Jon Ralston is the polling gurus' polling guru. He is a legend in the trade who has never called Nevada wrong.
Now, he doesn't have all that much more clue than we do.

Nevada’s Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-2024-election-in-nevada-is-so-hard-to-predict.html
...But the main reason for the tremendous explosion of independent voters is an automatic voter-registration law that started having an effect about three years ago. If you go to the DMV, you can register to vote as a Democrat or a Republican, but if you don’t, you are auto-registered as an independent and nonpartisan.

So that has changed the dynamic. And I think a lot of these voters, who I call zombie voters — they don’t even know they’re registered. They don’t care that much about politics. They’re not that engaged. So it’s unclear what real percentage of those voters are actually going to cast a ballot.

And that makes your life a lot more difficult in terms of predicting this stuff. You’re the Oracle of Nevada — the one guy in the country who’s been pretty accurate with early-voting data in the past.

What do you mean pretty accurate?

Sorry, I meant 100 percent.

But seriously, my crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct. And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin. I really have no idea right now. It’s so close, and both sides think it’s within a point or so...

Its slightly worrying for Harris that Navada is that close. It should have been a reasonably easy one to hold onto. Its been fairly consistently Democratic of late.

Easy to see that you do NOT understand the fundamental nature of Nevada politics & elections.

Which is that, due to (nearly) continuous massive, indeed expolsive population growth, the state's electorate changes virtually from year-to-year, and most definitely one presidential election to the next.

Thus extrapolating what transpired in the previous election to the next is fraught with peril, for politicos, pollsters, analyists (such as Jon Ralston) AND (lest we forget) punters.

I saw a snippet suggesting that the gap between registered democrats and republicans in the state had halved over this cycle from 8 to 4%. That is indeed quite rapid change.

DavidL

Anabobazina said:

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

(Slightly) fake news.

Today's TIPP is Harris +4.

https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking-poll-day-3-harris-widens-popular-vote-lead-while-trump-maintains-edge-in-electoral-projections/

I took it from this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Not sure if that is a different poll from their daily one. Is their daily one a bit like Yougov's panel here?

kinabalu

LostPassword said:

These numbers are very important to watch when it comes to the count of the vote, as one PBer did with some success for PA at the last election.

Do you remember who it was? That 'Alistair' guy in Scotland was pretty good on this sort of very granular stuff, as I recall. No longer here, though, unless with a name change.

nico679

DavidL said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

Reposting this interview from this morning.

Jon Ralston is the polling gurus' polling guru. He is a legend in the trade who has never called Nevada wrong.
Now, he doesn't have all that much more clue than we do.

Nevada’s Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-2024-election-in-nevada-is-so-hard-to-predict.html
...But the main reason for the tremendous explosion of independent voters is an automatic voter-registration law that started having an effect about three years ago. If you go to the DMV, you can register to vote as a Democrat or a Republican, but if you don’t, you are auto-registered as an independent and nonpartisan.

So that has changed the dynamic. And I think a lot of these voters, who I call zombie voters — they don’t even know they’re registered. They don’t care that much about politics. They’re not that engaged. So it’s unclear what real percentage of those voters are actually going to cast a ballot.

And that makes your life a lot more difficult in terms of predicting this stuff. You’re the Oracle of Nevada — the one guy in the country who’s been pretty accurate with early-voting data in the past.

What do you mean pretty accurate?

Sorry, I meant 100 percent.

But seriously, my crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct. And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin. I really have no idea right now. It’s so close, and both sides think it’s within a point or so...

Its slightly worrying for Harris that Navada is that close. It should have been a reasonably easy one to hold onto. Its been fairly consistently Democratic of late.

Easy to see that you do NOT understand the fundamental nature of Nevada politics & elections.

Which is that, due to (nearly) continuous massive, indeed expolsive population growth, the state's electorate changes virtually from year-to-year, and most definitely one presidential election to the next.

Thus extrapolating what transpired in the previous election to the next is fraught with peril, for politicos, pollsters, analyists (such as Jon Ralston) AND (lest we forget) punters.

I saw a snippet suggesting that the gap between registered democrats and republicans in the state had halved over this cycle from 8 to 4%. That is indeed quite rapid change.

Both GOP and Dem registrations have fallen , it’s just the former by less . Newer voters tend to be less likely to put a party down but they tend to lean towards the Dems. So I expect the so called independent vote there is bluer than the last election cycle .

TheScreamingEagles

williamglenn said:

Biden’s legacy:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1846202315524526169

I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed.

Obviously you missed this bit.

The forthcoming presidential election in the US represents the point of maximum danger. A win by Donald Trump could see him placing a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as 6 November. Any such call would set expectations of a negotiated settlement, with discussions possibly beginning in the early months of 2025.

Nobody should want this war of ‘meat grinder’ savagery to continue a day longer than necessary. However, Zelensky would have much to fear from a deal negotiated by Trump. The 2020 Doha Accords with the Afghan Taliban have been described as the worst diplomatic agreement since Munich in 1938. Fortunately, Trump was prevented from reaching a similarly disastrous deal with Kim Jong-un of North Korea.

kinabalu

williamglenn said:

Biden’s legacy:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1846202315524526169

I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed.

I'd more be blaming Vladimir Putin.

kinabalu

viewcode said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

Reposting this interview from this morning.

Jon Ralston is the polling gurus' polling guru. He is a legend in the trade who has never called Nevada wrong.
Now, he doesn't have all that much more clue than we do.

Nevada’s Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-2024-election-in-nevada-is-so-hard-to-predict.html
...But the main reason for the tremendous explosion of independent voters is an automatic voter-registration law that started having an effect about three years ago. If you go to the DMV, you can register to vote as a Democrat or a Republican, but if you don’t, you are auto-registered as an independent and nonpartisan.

So that has changed the dynamic. And I think a lot of these voters, who I call zombie voters — they don’t even know they’re registered. They don’t care that much about politics. They’re not that engaged. So it’s unclear what real percentage of those voters are actually going to cast a ballot.

And that makes your life a lot more difficult in terms of predicting this stuff. You’re the Oracle of Nevada — the one guy in the country who’s been pretty accurate with early-voting data in the past.

What do you mean pretty accurate?

Sorry, I meant 100 percent.

But seriously, my crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct. And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin. I really have no idea right now. It’s so close, and both sides think it’s within a point or so...

Its slightly worrying for Harris that Navada is that close. It should have been a reasonably easy one to hold onto. Its been fairly consistently Democratic of late.

...and why did Trump campaign in Colorado???

He just likes taking his 'tour' wherever. Eg California the other day and has one planned for Madison Sq Garden.

Andy_JS

Malmesbury said:

LostPassword said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

Oh and a first! Not had one for a while.

A vote in the ballot box is worth two that haven't been cast yet.

It reduces the number of people you have to chivvy to the polling booth on election day.

I’m from Belfast

500 votes in the graveyard are worth more.

Especially after they vote 5 times each.

This is the first time you've mentioned you're from Belfast AFAIK.

kinabalu

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

I'd like to see Morning back at the 6 or 7 mark.

SeaShantyIrish2

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

Also you can eat your own corn. Those who have voted now won't vote later (or at least they shouldn't).

That an odd metaphor.

A vote is a vote. Once it's cast, it's a certain vote.
Which you don't have to get out on the day,

Eating your own corn means something quite different.

I think it works. What I mean by it is that the massive GOTV operation is encouraging early voting with some success. A vote cast is in the bank but if you would have got the vote anyway at some point either early or on election day you are not actually any further ahead for your effort.

In this case the massive early voting effort in Georgia is certainly bringing some voting forward but it is not necessarily increasing the number of votes to be cast for your candidate. Its a similar point to that which @TSE is making in the header. This huge wave of early voting does not necessarily mean the Democrats are doing better than they otherwise would have done.

True . . . but only to a certain extent.

Note that one reason why voters may wait until closer to Election Day to cast their ballots, is because they worry that something might happen in the last week or so that would have altered their personal voting intention, for one or more races on their ballot.

Have had this happen to me, so I tend to wait until a day or so before ED to return my humble ballot.

Another factor that can slow down voters, is a multiplicity of things ON the ballot to vote for, or against. For example, the new ranked choice voting system for city officices in Portland (with separate ballot for PDX races, another for state and county) almost certainly means that ballot returns (OR is like WA all vote-by-mail) will be sluggish UNTIL the EDay deadline.

ALSO NOTE that in some places (such as Portland AND Seattle) the LATTER votes are MORE Democratic & (especially) progressive than the earlier votes on ballots returned sooner; in part this reflects fact that older voters are more likely to vote early, at least in Cascadia.

Anabobazina

DavidL said:

Anabobazina said:

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

(Slightly) fake news.

Today's TIPP is Harris +4.

https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking-poll-day-3-harris-widens-popular-vote-lead-while-trump-maintains-edge-in-electoral-projections/

I took it from this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Not sure if that is a different poll from their daily one. Is their daily one a bit like Yougov's panel here?

I think they are just a day late updating it (the one shown there is yesterday's tracker).

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Biden’s legacy:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1846202315524526169

I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed.

Obviously you missed this bit.

The forthcoming presidential election in the US represents the point of maximum danger. A win by Donald Trump could see him placing a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as 6 November. Any such call would set expectations of a negotiated settlement, with discussions possibly beginning in the early months of 2025.

Nobody should want this war of ‘meat grinder’ savagery to continue a day longer than necessary. However, Zelensky would have much to fear from a deal negotiated by Trump. The 2020 Doha Accords with the Afghan Taliban have been described as the worst diplomatic agreement since Munich in 1938. Fortunately, Trump was prevented from reaching a similarly disastrous deal with Kim Jong-un of North Korea.

You should focus on the thread by the Ukrainian rather than the article by the Brit.

Big_G_NorthWales

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/

Another poll with labour sub 30%

Another poll with Labour leading the Tories decisively, despite doing unpopular stuff and a hypocritical media whining on about trivial drivel like Currygate Swiftgate day after tedious day.

Next.

Complacency from No 10s own stooge

DavidL

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

I'd like to see Morning back at the 6 or 7 mark.

I think nearly all of us would. The position for the UK is not nearly as anxious as it must be for Ukraine but it is bad enough. Having Trump back in the White House would be bad news for us (tariffs and other nonsense, NATO etc etc) as well as for the US.

SeaShantyIrish2

nico679 said:

DavidL said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

Reposting this interview from this morning.

Jon Ralston is the polling gurus' polling guru. He is a legend in the trade who has never called Nevada wrong.
Now, he doesn't have all that much more clue than we do.

Nevada’s Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-2024-election-in-nevada-is-so-hard-to-predict.html
...But the main reason for the tremendous explosion of independent voters is an automatic voter-registration law that started having an effect about three years ago. If you go to the DMV, you can register to vote as a Democrat or a Republican, but if you don’t, you are auto-registered as an independent and nonpartisan.

So that has changed the dynamic. And I think a lot of these voters, who I call zombie voters — they don’t even know they’re registered. They don’t care that much about politics. They’re not that engaged. So it’s unclear what real percentage of those voters are actually going to cast a ballot.

And that makes your life a lot more difficult in terms of predicting this stuff. You’re the Oracle of Nevada — the one guy in the country who’s been pretty accurate with early-voting data in the past.

What do you mean pretty accurate?

Sorry, I meant 100 percent.

But seriously, my crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct. And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin. I really have no idea right now. It’s so close, and both sides think it’s within a point or so...

Its slightly worrying for Harris that Navada is that close. It should have been a reasonably easy one to hold onto. Its been fairly consistently Democratic of late.

Easy to see that you do NOT understand the fundamental nature of Nevada politics & elections.

Which is that, due to (nearly) continuous massive, indeed expolsive population growth, the state's electorate changes virtually from year-to-year, and most definitely one presidential election to the next.

Thus extrapolating what transpired in the previous election to the next is fraught with peril, for politicos, pollsters, analyists (such as Jon Ralston) AND (lest we forget) punters.

I saw a snippet suggesting that the gap between registered democrats and republicans in the state had halved over this cycle from 8 to 4%. That is indeed quite rapid change.

Both GOP and Dem registrations have fallen , it’s just the former by less . Newer voters tend to be less likely to put a party down but they tend to lean towards the Dems. So I expect the so called independent vote there is bluer than the last election cycle .

Several reasons why voters may elect NOT to register by party when that's an option:

> No such thing as voter registration by party in their state (such as WA).
> Not politically engaged, or overtly disengaged, EDIT which is why ballot returns AND ultimate turnout for independent-registered voters lags behind registerd Dems or Reps.
> Affilate with a third party, for example Libertarian, Green, Working Families, Socialist Workers, etc., etc.
> Consider themselves to be Independents who vote the person/issue NOT the party, even when as a practical matter they vote 90% of the time along party lines; Massachusetts is an example, where "Unenrolled" independents are the largest single bloc, have been for decades.

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/registered-voter-enrollment.htm

TimS

Arriving in London off the Leeds train this afternoon is like getting off the plane in the Med. another world.

Anabobazina

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/

Another poll with labour sub 30%

Another poll with Labour leading the Tories decisively, despite doing unpopular stuff and a hypocritical media whining on about trivial drivel like Currygate Swiftgate day after tedious day.

Next.

Complacency from No 10s own stooge

Not at all, I just don't luxuriate in meaningless trivialities like some people I could mention...

Anabobazina

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

I'd like to see Morning back at the 6 or 7 mark.

I think nearly all of us would. The position for the UK is not nearly as anxious as it must be for Ukraine but it is bad enough. Having Trump back in the White House would be bad news for us (tariffs and other nonsense, NATO etc etc) as well as for the US.

There are quite a few PBers who rather fancy a Trumpian White House.

londonpubman

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

I reckon the interest rate vote will be 8-1. Dinghra voting for a half point cut instead.

Should the half-point cut not be favourite, after the inflation rate came in well under target?

Probably 0.25% Nov, 0.25% Dec, so 4.50% at year end

This might change if the perception of the Budget is inflationary if borrowing increases somewhat

Big_G_NorthWales

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/

Another poll with labour sub 30%

Another poll with Labour leading the Tories decisively, despite doing unpopular stuff and a hypocritical media whining on about trivial drivel like Currygate Swiftgate day after tedious day.

Next.

Complacency from No 10s own stooge

Not at all, I just down luxuriate in meaningless trivialities like some people I could mention...

Enjoy Starmer falling below Farage in popularity then !!!!!!!!!!!!

Anabobazina

TimS said:

Arriving in London off the Leeds train this afternoon is like getting off the plane in the Med. another world.

Hence why London is widely known as the Antibes of the North.

williamglenn

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

Biden’s legacy:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1846202315524526169

I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed.

I'd more be blaming Vladimir Putin.

Indeed, that's why you need a strong man in the White House to stop him getting up to his tricks.

TheScreamingEagles

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/

Another poll with labour sub 30%

Another poll with Labour leading the Tories decisively, despite doing unpopular stuff and a hypocritical media whining on about trivial drivel like Currygate Swiftgate day after tedious day.

Next.

Complacency from No 10s own stooge

Not at all, I just down luxuriate in meaningless trivialities like some people I could mention...

I am surprised we haven't been spammed by this poll, actually I am not surprised.

It has been reported that the Metropolitan Police provided a police escort for Taylor Swift to get to Wembley for her London shows. Do you think this is acceptable or unacceptable?

Acceptable: 45%

Unacceptable: 39%

https://x.com/YouGov/status/1844397820004139065

SeaShantyIrish2

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Biden’s legacy:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1846202315524526169

I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed.

Obviously you missed this bit.

The forthcoming presidential election in the US represents the point of maximum danger. A win by Donald Trump could see him placing a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as 6 November. Any such call would set expectations of a negotiated settlement, with discussions possibly beginning in the early months of 2025.

Nobody should want this war of ‘meat grinder’ savagery to continue a day longer than necessary. However, Zelensky would have much to fear from a deal negotiated by Trump. The 2020 Doha Accords with the Afghan Taliban have been described as the worst diplomatic agreement since Munich in 1938. Fortunately, Trump was prevented from reaching a similarly disastrous deal with Kim Jong-un of North Korea.

Competitive (ditto compulsive) cherry picking, is THE favorite passtime for PBers.

Big_G_NorthWales

Sky reporting that the assisted dying bill may be talked out by mps

Is this realistic?

williamglenn

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Biden’s legacy:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1846202315524526169

I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed.

Obviously you missed this bit.

The forthcoming presidential election in the US represents the point of maximum danger. A win by Donald Trump could see him placing a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as 6 November. Any such call would set expectations of a negotiated settlement, with discussions possibly beginning in the early months of 2025.

Nobody should want this war of ‘meat grinder’ savagery to continue a day longer than necessary. However, Zelensky would have much to fear from a deal negotiated by Trump. The 2020 Doha Accords with the Afghan Taliban have been described as the worst diplomatic agreement since Munich in 1938. Fortunately, Trump was prevented from reaching a similarly disastrous deal with Kim Jong-un of North Korea.

Competitive (ditto compulsive) cherry picking, is THE favorite passtime for PBers.

The idea that Trump was 'prevented' from reaching a 'similar' deal with Kim Jong-un is absurd. What would such a deal have looked like?

Selebian

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/

Another poll with labour sub 30%

Another poll with Labour leading the Tories decisively, despite doing unpopular stuff and a hypocritical media whining on about trivial drivel like Currygate Swiftgate day after tedious day.

Next.

Complacency from No 10s own stooge

Not at all, I just down luxuriate in meaningless trivialities like some people I could mention...

I am surprised we haven't been spammed by this poll, actually I am not surprised.

It has been reported that the Metropolitan Police provided a police escort for Taylor Swift to get to Wembley for her London shows. Do you think this is acceptable or unacceptable?

Acceptable: 45%

Unacceptable: 39%

https://x.com/YouGov/status/1844397820004139065

You know, when I was a young kid and Ford Escorts were popular, I thought that 'a police escort' meant they'd let someone borrow/hop in one of their patrol cars. Mind you, I also assumed that new clear power stations must be made of glass or something.

Would be a happier world, wouldn't it, if the police routinely offered lifts without nicking you and power stations were gleaming glass things of beauty?

eek

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting that the assisted dying bill may be talked out by mps

Is this realistic?

Talking a bill out is the default way of killing a private members bill - wasn’t there a Tory MP famous for continually doing so

MattW

Thanks @TSE

Another feature of the Usonian system the existence of which I will never be able to reconcile with rationality.

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting that the assisted dying bill may be talked out by mps

Is this realistic?

Yes, it’s a private members’ bill.

Andy_JS

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting that the assisted dying bill may be talked out by mps

Is this realistic?

Talking a bill out is the default way of killing a private members bill - wasn’t there a Tory MP famous for continually doing so

Christopher Chope specialises in it IIRC.

TimS

Anabobazina said:

TimS said:

Arriving in London off the Leeds train this afternoon is like getting off the plane in the Med. another world.

Hence why London is widely known as the Antibes of the North.

A couple of women in front of me in thick puffer jackets were looking at each other in joyous disbelief. “It’s..warm?” Mouthed one.

Jim_Miller

Two reminders: First, The US does not have one voting system; we have 51 voting systems with, often, variations within those 51 systems.

Second, Republicans often accuse Democrats of vote fraud, and Democrats often accuse Republicans of vote suppression. There is some truth to each accusation, but far less than partisans on either side want to believe.

MattW

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting that the assisted dying bill may be talked out by mps

Is this realistic?

It's a Private Members Bill aiui, so unless it is adopted by the Government that is very much possible. In recent years the numbers making it through the process has declined quite sharply iirc.

Cookie

Anabobazina said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

I'd like to see Morning back at the 6 or 7 mark.

I think nearly all of us would. The position for the UK is not nearly as anxious as it must be for Ukraine but it is bad enough. Having Trump back in the White House would be bad news for us (tariffs and other nonsense, NATO etc etc) as well as for the US.

There are quite a few PBers who rather fancy a Trumpian White House.

I think we did this yesterday. I can't think of more than a couple. Many of Kamala's more enthusiastic backers seem to mistake an antipathy for Kamala for a secret support for Trump. Which I don't think is reasonable.
Personally, I think Kamala is rubbish. But still clearly the more desirable outcome by far.

Cookie

Andy_JS said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting that the assisted dying bill may be talked out by mps

Is this realistic?

Talking a bill out is the default way of killing a private members bill - wasn’t there a Tory MP famous for continually doing so

Christopher Chope specialises in it IIRC.

I wonder if eek is thinking of Gyles Brandreth?

LostPassword

kinabalu said:

LostPassword said:

These numbers are very important to watch when it comes to the count of the vote, as one PBer did with some success for PA at the last election.

Do you remember who it was? That 'Alistair' guy in Scotland was pretty good on this sort of very granular stuff, as I recall. No longer here, though, unless with a name change.

It was @Alistair I think.

tlg86

We have the big mo (probably not, but here's hoping):

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/oct/16/comeback--ainslie-britannia-grab-first-points-americas-cup-sailing

williamglenn

Jim_Miller said:

Two reminders: First, The US does not have one voting system; we have 51 voting systems with, often, variations within those 51 systems.

Second, Republicans often accuse Democrats of vote fraud, and Democrats often accuse Republicans of vote suppression. There is some truth to each accusation, but far less than partisans on either side want to believe.

What the 51st? The federal system?

TimS

Selebian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/

Another poll with labour sub 30%

Another poll with Labour leading the Tories decisively, despite doing unpopular stuff and a hypocritical media whining on about trivial drivel like Currygate Swiftgate day after tedious day.

Next.

Complacency from No 10s own stooge

Not at all, I just down luxuriate in meaningless trivialities like some people I could mention...

I am surprised we haven't been spammed by this poll, actually I am not surprised.

It has been reported that the Metropolitan Police provided a police escort for Taylor Swift to get to Wembley for her London shows. Do you think this is acceptable or unacceptable?

Acceptable: 45%

Unacceptable: 39%

https://x.com/YouGov/status/1844397820004139065

You know, when I was a young kid and Ford Escorts were popular, I thought that 'a police escort' meant they'd let someone borrow/hop in one of their patrol cars. Mind you, I also assumed that new clear power stations must be made of glass or something.

Would be a happier world, wouldn't it, if the police routinely offered lifts without nicking you and power stations were gleaming glass things of beauty?

I had the same misapprehension about police escorts! At least I didn’t think it was some sort of prostitution racket.

As for remanded in custody. The suspect was placed in a big vat of yellow stuff. Which was believable for a youngster brought up watching the children’s TV game shows of that era.

LostPassword

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

Biden’s legacy:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1846202315524526169

I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed.

I'd more be blaming Vladimir Putin.

Biden has done enough to prevent Ukraine's defeat, but not enough to ensure their victory.

It's frustrating, particularly as he hasn't pulled any punches rhetorically, but then fails to follow that up with the requisite action.

Luckyguy1983

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/

Another poll with labour sub 30%

Another poll with Labour leading the Tories decisively, despite doing unpopular stuff and a hypocritical media whining on about trivial drivel like Currygate Swiftgate day after tedious day.

Next.

Yet another day when the main pollsters fail to release a poll in a completely unprecedented polling drought.

Jim_Miller

There is a good chance that party control will flip in both the House and Senate in this election, with Republicans taking control of the Senate, and Democrats the House. Right now, I would say there is about one chance in three that will happen.

Barnesian

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

My EMA is on +3.0

MattW

One from my beat, which seems small but is important and strategic.

National Highways to stop using the word ‘accident’

National Highways has confirmed it will phase out the use of the word ‘accident’ from its communications, in what is being branded as a ‘significant step forward’ in recognising the preventable nature of road collisions.

The wider industry already uses ‘crash’ or ‘collision’, largely regarding ‘accident’ as wrongly presuming collisions are unavoidable, and masking accountability for death and injury on the roads.
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/national-highways-to-stop-using-of-the-word-accident

As a measure of how stuck in the past this organisation is, it has taken a decade of campaigning by Parliamentarians and road safety organisations to get them to move even this far.

Twitter thread with more detail from the writer:
https://x.com/laura_laker/status/1846467700849037402

Jim_Miller

williamglenn asked: "What the 51st? The federal system?"

Washington, DC, which votes for president, and elects its own city government.

gettingbetter

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

It may not be enough. I have done some work on this and I think that 3.5% is needed just ti have

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

It's probably not enough. Needs at least 3.5% lead and 5% to be sure, though there's s chance from about 2%. There won't be a uniform and there's a quasi-randomness at the

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

I think 3% may well not be enough.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting that the assisted dying bill may be talked out by mps

Is this realistic?

Yes, it’s a private members’ bill.

Is it likely?

SeaShantyIrish2

Politico - The Battleground Where Harris Is Drubbing Trump
Nebraska’s 2nd District has a single electoral vote up for grabs. It looks like Republicans might have let it slip away.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/14/nebraska-2nd-district-battleground-00183400

Cookie

FPT:

LostPassword said:

Cookie said:

ydoethur said:

Andy_JS said:

Gavin Williamson's seat includes areas that are very close to Cannock. Useless fact.

Gavin Williamson’s seat starts 200m from my front door.

Even more useless fact.

I'm needlessly thrilled by points where three constituencies meet. I used to live 50 yards from the boundaries of Sheffields Central, Hallam and Hillsborough. Brought me joy every time I crossed the road.

Yes! One of the drawbacks of large STV constituencies is the reduced opportunity for that sort of thing.

It is something that the Americans make more of, in part because of the way their State boundaries were created before most of the settlements developed, so you have tri-State cities.

There is a Three County Park at the point at which the counties of Cork, Kerry and Limerick meet, so that might be a fun day out.

The main reason for my enthusiasm for the traditional counties is that I want an unchanging set of sub-national geography that we can agree on, and this sort of thing is precisely the reason. There are a couple of such points in England which are worthy of comment: Three Shires Head (which is the confluence of Cheshire, Derbyshire and Staffordshire) and Wrynose Pass (which is the confluence of Lancashire, Cumberland and Westmorland). Both make an engaging trip.
I just wish there was one immutable list we could agree on.

Ooh, look! Brilliant. Well done wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tripoints_of_counties_of_England#Historic_county_tripoints

Big_G_NorthWales

Cookie said:

Anabobazina said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

I'd like to see Morning back at the 6 or 7 mark.

I think nearly all of us would. The position for the UK is not nearly as anxious as it must be for Ukraine but it is bad enough. Having Trump back in the White House would be bad news for us (tariffs and other nonsense, NATO etc etc) as well as for the US.

There are quite a few PBers who rather fancy a Trumpian White House.

I think we did this yesterday. I can't think of more than a couple. Many of Kamala's more enthusiastic backers seem to mistake an antipathy for Kamala for a secret support for Trump. Which I don't think is reasonable.
Personally, I think Kamala is rubbish. But still clearly the more desirable outcome by far.

Neither can I nor do I expect it to happen

Leon

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Biden’s legacy:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1846202315524526169

I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed.

Obviously you missed this bit.

The forthcoming presidential election in the US represents the point of maximum danger. A win by Donald Trump could see him placing a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as 6 November. Any such call would set expectations of a negotiated settlement, with discussions possibly beginning in the early months of 2025.

Nobody should want this war of ‘meat grinder’ savagery to continue a day longer than necessary. However, Zelensky would have much to fear from a deal negotiated by Trump. The 2020 Doha Accords with the Afghan Taliban have been described as the worst diplomatic agreement since Munich in 1938. Fortunately, Trump was prevented from reaching a similarly disastrous deal with Kim Jong-un of North Korea.

You should focus on the thread by the Ukrainian rather than the article by the Brit.

The Ukrainians should have sued for a Korean armistice after their Kharkiv counteroffensive

kyf_100

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

LostPassword said:

These numbers are very important to watch when it comes to the count of the vote, as one PBer did with some success for PA at the last election.

Do you remember who it was? That 'Alistair' guy in Scotland was pretty good on this sort of very granular stuff, as I recall. No longer here, though, unless with a name change.

It was @Alistair I think.

I made out very well - to the tune of several hundred quid - off the back of a 3am recommendation from him on number of SNP seats being mispriced in the 2019 (I think) election. PB is often at its best on the night when listening to people with very specific, granular knowledge.

Selebian

MattW said:

One from my beat, which seems small but is important and strategic.

National Highways to stop using the word ‘accident’

National Highways has confirmed it will phase out the use of the word ‘accident’ from its communications, in what is being branded as a ‘significant step forward’ in recognising the preventable nature of road collisions.

The wider industry already uses ‘crash’ or ‘collision’, largely regarding ‘accident’ as wrongly presuming collisions are unavoidable, and masking accountability for death and injury on the roads.
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/national-highways-to-stop-using-of-the-word-accident

As a measure of how stuck in the past this organisation is, it has taken a decade of campaigning by Parliamentarians and road safety organisations to get them to move even this far.

Twitter thread with more detail from the writer:
https://x.com/laura_laker/status/1846467700849037402

On the semantics, I'd just take 'accident' to mean unintended, not unavoidable.* 'Crash' or 'collision' is more specific as to the type of accident, so there is that, I guess (and would also include crashes that were intended).

*a friend's brother died in an 'accident' at work, that's how he and his family have always put it, but they absolutely thought it was avoidable and blamed the employer

Stuartinromford

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting that the assisted dying bill may be talked out by mps

Is this realistic?

Yes, it’s a private members’ bill.

Is it likely?

Who knows?

The mechanism certainly exists, and if a few determined opponents can't stop the bill any other way, I don't think there's anything to stop them.

https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/publications/guides/private-members-bill-procedure-in-the-house-of-commons#time-wasting-tactics-to-talk-out-a-bill

The standard workround is for the government to adopt the bill as one of their own. Which is how Chope was thwarted on upskirting.

Overall, it seems a shame- taking these things out of the government vs. opposition game has to be the healthy way to get decisions on great moral questions. Remove that and PMBs are just for trivial niggles.

Barnesian

gettingbetter said:

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

It may not be enough. I have done some work on this and I think that 3.5% is needed just ti have

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

It's probably not enough. Needs at least 3.5% lead and 5% to be sure, though there's s chance from about 2%. There won't be a uniform and there's a quasi-randomness at the

DavidL said:

TimT said:

FPT in response to LostPassword commenting on rcs2000

I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.

In the latest round Yougov, TIPP and Ipsos all had Harris +3 and Morning Consult at +4. That is enough, just, and by a series of pollsters who are at least trying to get it right.

I think 3% may well not be enough.

My national exponential moving average is +3.0 and my detailed state by state model is 268:270 to Trump.

Tres

Cookie said:

FPT:

LostPassword said:

Cookie said:

ydoethur said:

Andy_JS said:

Gavin Williamson's seat includes areas that are very close to Cannock. Useless fact.

Gavin Williamson’s seat starts 200m from my front door.

Even more useless fact.

I'm needlessly thrilled by points where three constituencies meet. I used to live 50 yards from the boundaries of Sheffields Central, Hallam and Hillsborough. Brought me joy every time I crossed the road.

Yes! One of the drawbacks of large STV constituencies is the reduced opportunity for that sort of thing.

It is something that the Americans make more of, in part because of the way their State boundaries were created before most of the settlements developed, so you have tri-State cities.

There is a Three County Park at the point at which the counties of Cork, Kerry and Limerick meet, so that might be a fun day out.

The main reason for my enthusiasm for the traditional counties is that I want an unchanging set of sub-national geography that we can agree on, and this sort of thing is precisely the reason. There are a couple of such points in England which are worthy of comment: Three Shires Head (which is the confluence of Cheshire, Derbyshire and Staffordshire) and Wrynose Pass (which is the confluence of Lancashire, Cumberland and Westmorland). Both make an engaging trip.
I just wish there was one immutable list we could agree on.

Ooh, look! Brilliant. Well done wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tripoints_of_counties_of_England#Historic_county_tripoints

In London you can have much excitement at the heights of Crystal Palace park where you can view South London vistas from the Downs to Greenwich and the borders of the boroughs of Bromley, Croydon, Lambeth, Lewisham and Southwark meet.

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting that the assisted dying bill may be talked out by mps

Is this realistic?

Yes, it’s a private members’ bill.

Is it likely?

Yes, Chris Chope has form for this.

Andy_JS

Not sure this is the greatest idea ever.

'Kieran Andrews
@KieranPAndrews

EXC: The home secretary is working on a separate Scottish immigration visa that would allow more people to move north of the border, a Labour MP told the House of Commons

SNP will on Thurs put forward a private members bill to devolve powers to Holyrood"

https://x.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1846452731235410324

MattW

Selebian said:

MattW said:

One from my beat, which seems small but is important and strategic.

National Highways to stop using the word ‘accident’

National Highways has confirmed it will phase out the use of the word ‘accident’ from its communications, in what is being branded as a ‘significant step forward’ in recognising the preventable nature of road collisions.

The wider industry already uses ‘crash’ or ‘collision’, largely regarding ‘accident’ as wrongly presuming collisions are unavoidable, and masking accountability for death and injury on the roads.
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/national-highways-to-stop-using-of-the-word-accident

As a measure of how stuck in the past this organisation is, it has taken a decade of campaigning by Parliamentarians and road safety organisations to get them to move even this far.

Twitter thread with more detail from the writer:
https://x.com/laura_laker/status/1846467700849037402

On the semantics, I'd just take 'accident' to mean unintended, not unavoidable.* 'Crash' or 'collision' is more specific as to the type of accident, so there is that, I guess (and would also include crashes that were intended).

*a friend's brother died in an 'accident' at work, that's how he and his family have always put it, but they absolutely thought it was avoidable and blamed the employer

Yep. There are a couple of points about it.

One is that that language feeds a narrative that "these things just happen", removing agency from the person who caused it, and making it easier to slope shoulders and make excuses rather than thinking about the causes and improving practice. Most are avoidable with better practice.

It then feeds into lazy press narratives.

It's been practice in the Health and Safety industry to use "incident" since I can remember, but there has been a reluctance to apply a similar term to our roads. Yet the claim is that we apply K&S principles to our roads. "Accidents" then becomes a sub-category.

For some reasons ( ) the same reluctance does not seem to apply to aeroplane or railway "crashes".

The traditional Institute of Advanced Motorists slogan was always that their members had 2/3 fewer accidents that an average driver. I'm not sure whether they have changed.

Andy_JS

Selebian said:

MattW said:

One from my beat, which seems small but is important and strategic.

National Highways to stop using the word ‘accident’

National Highways has confirmed it will phase out the use of the word ‘accident’ from its communications, in what is being branded as a ‘significant step forward’ in recognising the preventable nature of road collisions.

The wider industry already uses ‘crash’ or ‘collision’, largely regarding ‘accident’ as wrongly presuming collisions are unavoidable, and masking accountability for death and injury on the roads.
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/national-highways-to-stop-using-of-the-word-accident

As a measure of how stuck in the past this organisation is, it has taken a decade of campaigning by Parliamentarians and road safety organisations to get them to move even this far.

Twitter thread with more detail from the writer:
https://x.com/laura_laker/status/1846467700849037402

On the semantics, I'd just take 'accident' to mean unintended, not unavoidable.* 'Crash' or 'collision' is more specific as to the type of accident, so there is that, I guess (and would also include crashes that were intended).

*a friend's brother died in an 'accident' at work, that's how he and his family have always put it, but they absolutely thought it was avoidable and blamed the employer

Of course accident means unintended.

rottenborough

Greg Bluestein
@bluestein

Asked why Republicans are pushing early voting in ways they didn’t in 2020, former Sen. Kelly Loeffler says she plans to be a poll watcher.

“We've got an army of lawyers. That's why we need people to come out and vote, because we know that they can trust the process.” #gapol

https://x.com/bluestein/status/1846559733786013945

Selebian

MattW said:

Selebian said:

MattW said:

One from my beat, which seems small but is important and strategic.

National Highways to stop using the word ‘accident’

National Highways has confirmed it will phase out the use of the word ‘accident’ from its communications, in what is being branded as a ‘significant step forward’ in recognising the preventable nature of road collisions.

The wider industry already uses ‘crash’ or ‘collision’, largely regarding ‘accident’ as wrongly presuming collisions are unavoidable, and masking accountability for death and injury on the roads.
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/national-highways-to-stop-using-of-the-word-accident

As a measure of how stuck in the past this organisation is, it has taken a decade of campaigning by Parliamentarians and road safety organisations to get them to move even this far.

Twitter thread with more detail from the writer:
https://x.com/laura_laker/status/1846467700849037402

On the semantics, I'd just take 'accident' to mean unintended, not unavoidable.* 'Crash' or 'collision' is more specific as to the type of accident, so there is that, I guess (and would also include crashes that were intended).

*a friend's brother died in an 'accident' at work, that's how he and his family have always put it, but they absolutely thought it was avoidable and blamed the employer

Yep. There are a couple of points about it.

One is that that language feeds a narrative that "these things just happen", removing agency from the person who caused it, and making it easier to slope shoulders and make excuses rather than thinking about the causes and improving practice. Most are avoidable with better practice.

It then feeds into lazy press narratives.

It's been practice in the Health and Safety industry to use "incident" since I can remember, but there has been a reluctance to apply a similar term to our roads. Yet the claim is that we apply K&S principles to our roads. "Accidents" then becomes a sub-category.

For some reasons ( ) the same reluctance does not seem to apply to aeroplane or railway "crashes".

The traditional Institute of Advanced Motorists slogan was always that their members had 2/3 fewer accidents that an average driver. I'm not sure whether they have changed.

Good point re train and railway crashes.

Most crashes are avoidable of course - just read today about the inquest evidence on the crash that killed those four young men in Wales, investigator saying speed was simply too fast for the corner. A colleague's son recently did something similar with a car full of friends, but fortunately no one was hurt (there's also an issue that in something like a Fiesta or smaller, the cornering with four passengers could be quite different to driving alone or with an instructor in the front seat).

When I learned to drive, appropriate speed for corners wasn't really taught. The instructor would of course say if you were going too fast (or slow!) but there was nothing on how to calibrate that really. I don't know whether the new theory tests cover that better, but it's the kind of thing that probably could be taught to some extent.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting that the assisted dying bill may be talked out by mps

Is this realistic?

Yes, it’s a private members’ bill.

Is it likely?

Yes, Chris Chope has form for this.

It seems a shame as it should be debated as there are a wide range of views though it has to have very strict regulations

Dopermean

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

Biden’s legacy:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1846202315524526169

I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed.

I'd more be blaming Vladimir Putin.

Biden has done enough to prevent Ukraine's defeat, but not enough to ensure their victory.

It's frustrating, particularly as he hasn't pulled any punches rhetorically, but then fails to follow that up with the requisite action.

I've a friend who lectures in US history, he predicted from almost the beginning that the US would provide enough support for Ukraine to keep going but not enough for them to end the invasion. Keep Russia tied up, grim realpolitik.