Baier: More than 70% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track... You've been in office for 3.5 years
Kamala: "And Donald Trump has been running for office."
Baier: "But you've been the person holding the office."
I watched the interview; she was surprisingly unwooden, and that was the nearest thing to a gotcha moment. All in all, I think she acquitted herself reasonably well,
I don’t think it was any worse than the 60 Minutes interview last week, but she comes across as being really evasive, talking in platitudes but with nothing actually behind them, and of acting as if she had nothing to do with the last four years despite being the incumbent VP.
Meanwhile, Republican Twitter is laughing themselves silly and saying please Kamala do Joe Rogan, while Democrat Twitter is either saying nothing out of a hatred of Fox News, or saying that it’s the best political interview of all time.
Did she dance to her Spotify playlist for 30 min while not answering questions?
You do know that Trump only did that because there was a medical emergency in the hall? He stopped the event so that paramedics could attend to those affected.
He stopped the event, paramedics attended, and *then* he resumed the event by stopping the Q&A and jiggling to music for half an hour.
Kamala has just finished a good interview on Fox. Quite combative. She's on form.
I thought she did very well and didn’t take any nonsense from Brett Baier who was desperate for a gotcha moment and failed.
In terms of polls Fox just released their national poll which had Trump ahead by 2 , 50 to 48 with a caveat that Harris is leading by 6 points in the swing states which seems strange given the topline . One thing that I found interesting in the write up . Essentially Harris isn’t doing quite as well in deep blue states which she will still win and Trump is doing better in his deep red states .
This then opens up what would be a real irony if Harris loses the national vote but wins the EC ! Of course then Trump will implode of course forgetting that he did the same thing in 2016 .
I still think that scenario is somewhat unlikely but who knows !
I have been recommending that bet (Trump PV, Harris EV) for some time. I think it is highly likely that Trump will dramatically outperform 2020 in NY and California, but put in a very similar performance in the swing states.
However: I think it is nailed on that the Republicans take the Senate. The House, I would make the Democrats the (very narrow) favorites.
I am considering that bet, the problem I have is working through the (then) logical conclusions for what it suggests for the overall result.
If Trump wins the PV vote, that means he has made fairly significant gains amongst certain groups. Which groups are those likely to be? WWC (particularly male), Hispanics and potentially Black males. In all three instances, they probably have outsized importance in swing states. So you would have to assume he has made gains in these groups but, geographically, not in the areas he needs to win but the other non-important states. Possible but unlikely.
I would say it was a certainty with Black males given the rather desperate tweets this week from the Harris camp. They seem worried.
I do not know why but my twitter feed, apart from the usual stuff of football, old actors, finance, pensions and old Telly, seems to have a few right wing talking head types from the US. God knows why. I have never expressed any interest in the US election there. All seem to think the Harris interview was a crash and burn. A total disaster. So I am going to assume she did okay.
Did you object to breaking news when Elvis died, or John Lennon?
According to Wikipedia:-
As of 2020, the band have sold a total of 70 million records worldwide, making them one of the best-selling boy bands of all time. The band have won nearly 200 awards, including seven Brit Awards, four MTV Video Music Awards, six Billboard Music Awards, seven American Music Awards (including Artist of the Year in 2014 and 2015), and 28 Teen Choice Awards. In 2013, they earned an estimated $75 million, becoming the second highest earning celebrity under 30 according to Forbes. As the world's best-selling artist of 2013, the group was named the Global Recording Artist of the Year by the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry. In 2014, Billboard named the band "Artist of the Year". Forbes ranked them as the fourth highest-earning celebrities in the world in 2015, and subsequently in second in 2016. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Direction
Kamala has just finished a good interview on Fox. Quite combative. She's on form.
I thought she did very well and didn’t take any nonsense from Brett Baier who was desperate for a gotcha moment and failed.
In terms of polls Fox just released their national poll which had Trump ahead by 2 , 50 to 48 with a caveat that Harris is leading by 6 points in the swing states which seems strange given the topline . One thing that I found interesting in the write up . Essentially Harris isn’t doing quite as well in deep blue states which she will still win and Trump is doing better in his deep red states .
This then opens up what would be a real irony if Harris loses the national vote but wins the EC ! Of course then Trump will implode of course forgetting that he did the same thing in 2016 .
I still think that scenario is somewhat unlikely but who knows !
I have been recommending that bet (Trump PV, Harris EV) for some time. I think it is highly likely that Trump will dramatically outperform 2020 in NY and California, but put in a very similar performance in the swing states.
However: I think it is nailed on that the Republicans take the Senate. The House, I would make the Democrats the (very narrow) favorites.
Kamala has just finished a good interview on Fox. Quite combative. She's on form.
I thought she did very well and didn’t take any nonsense from Brett Baier who was desperate for a gotcha moment and failed.
In terms of polls Fox just released their national poll which had Trump ahead by 2 , 50 to 48 with a caveat that Harris is leading by 6 points in the swing states which seems strange given the topline . One thing that I found interesting in the write up . Essentially Harris isn’t doing quite as well in deep blue states which she will still win and Trump is doing better in his deep red states .
This then opens up what would be a real irony if Harris loses the national vote but wins the EC ! Of course then Trump will implode of course forgetting that he did the same thing in 2016 .
I still think that scenario is somewhat unlikely but who knows !
I have been recommending that bet (Trump PV, Harris EV) for some time. I think it is highly likely that Trump will dramatically outperform 2020 in NY and California, but put in a very similar performance in the swing states.
However: I think it is nailed on that the Republicans take the Senate. The House, I would make the Democrats the (very narrow) favorites.
FWIW, I have Harris winning both PV and EC, Dems taking the House with a small majority, and either GOP taking the Senate 51:49 or it being tied 50:50 (so with Walz as the deciding vote) with the former the more likely.
I think the Republicans will gain West Virginia (obviously), Montana, and Ohio, in the Senate. But, Fisher’s seat in Nebraska is a coin toss.
I think Brown is safe in Ohio, and Cruz is the joker in the pack. Allred crucified him in the debate.
The Republicans are increasingly more positive about Michigan and Wisconsin for the Senate
They will lose both. The ground game condemns them.
Did you object to breaking news when Elvis died, or John Lennon?
According to Wikipedia:-
As of 2020, the band have sold a total of 70 million records worldwide, making them one of the best-selling boy bands of all time. The band have won nearly 200 awards, including seven Brit Awards, four MTV Video Music Awards, six Billboard Music Awards, seven American Music Awards (including Artist of the Year in 2014 and 2015), and 28 Teen Choice Awards. In 2013, they earned an estimated $75 million, becoming the second highest earning celebrity under 30 according to Forbes. As the world's best-selling artist of 2013, the group was named the Global Recording Artist of the Year by the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry. In 2014, Billboard named the band "Artist of the Year". Forbes ranked them as the fourth highest-earning celebrities in the world in 2015, and subsequently in second in 2016. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Direction
Urban Japan must be one of the ugliest places on earth
On the other hand, rural Japan can be one of the most beautiful, in terms of human management of it. I recommend trying a tea ceremony on one of those Zen centres, outside Kyoto, it was I think.
Urban Japan must be one of the ugliest places on earth
The state of the wiring in the streets is, er, archaic. If you can have archaic electrical wiring.
For a country with such exquisitely refined taste in so many areas - from food to flowers to fancy consunmer electronics - the dismally hideous state of almost every single town is quite impressive
Even little villages will often have one massive and aggressively ugly tower block
I know that they have to build quite cheaply because of earthquakes and wars and typhoons. I know that they used to build in wood and all the nice stuff got burnt down
Canada needs to throw the book at India, with the backing of Five Eyes and possibly sanctions on top, to show that that behaviour will absolutely not be tolerated or it will normify and spread.
We can't have States (any state) having agents roaming the world taking out any of their exiled citizens who are saying stuff they don't like.
Canada needs to throw the book at India, with the backing of Five Eyes and possibly sanctions on top, to show that that behaviour will absolutely not be tolerated or it will normify and spread.
We can't have States (any state) having agents roaming the world taking out any of their exiled citizens who are saying stuff they don't like.
You have to be much more subtle than that, if you’re going to take out dissidents and get away with it. Unless of course you want the countries involved to treat you as they treat Russia and China.
This one was a shooting, in a country with comparatively few handguns. That other members of the same dissident group also received threats, doesn’t exactly help the cause of the Indian government. Barely more subtle than a Novichok poisoning.
Kamala has just finished a good interview on Fox. Quite combative. She's on form.
I thought she did very well and didn’t take any nonsense from Brett Baier who was desperate for a gotcha moment and failed.
In terms of polls Fox just released their national poll which had Trump ahead by 2 , 50 to 48 with a caveat that Harris is leading by 6 points in the swing states which seems strange given the topline . One thing that I found interesting in the write up . Essentially Harris isn’t doing quite as well in deep blue states which she will still win and Trump is doing better in his deep red states .
This then opens up what would be a real irony if Harris loses the national vote but wins the EC ! Of course then Trump will implode of course forgetting that he did the same thing in 2016 .
I still think that scenario is somewhat unlikely but who knows !
I have been recommending that bet (Trump PV, Harris EV) for some time. I think it is highly likely that Trump will dramatically outperform 2020 in NY and California, but put in a very similar performance in the swing states.
However: I think it is nailed on that the Republicans take the Senate. The House, I would make the Democrats the (very narrow) favorites.
I am considering that bet, the problem I have is working through the (then) logical conclusions for what it suggests for the overall result.
If Trump wins the PV vote, that means he has made fairly significant gains amongst certain groups. Which groups are those likely to be? WWC (particularly male), Hispanics and potentially Black males. In all three instances, they probably have outsized importance in swing states. So you would have to assume he has made gains in these groups but, geographically, not in the areas he needs to win but the other non-important states. Possible but unlikely.
I would say it was a certainty with Black males given the rather desperate tweets this week from the Harris camp. They seem worried.
I do not know why but my twitter feed, apart from the usual stuff of football, old actors, finance, pensions and old Telly, seems to have a few right wing talking head types from the US. God knows why. I have never expressed any interest in the US election there. All seem to think the Harris interview was a crash and burn. A total disaster. So I am going to assume she did okay.
Why does your Twitter feed suddenly have right-sing talking head types pop up in it? I’m sure the answer is entirely unrelated to Elon Musk becoming a major cheerleader for Trump and being promised a major job in his administration.
Baier: More than 70% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track... You've been in office for 3.5 years
Kamala: "And Donald Trump has been running for office."
Baier: "But you've been the person holding the office."
I watched the interview; she was surprisingly unwooden, and that was the nearest thing to a gotcha moment. All in all, I think she acquitted herself reasonably well,
I don’t think it was any worse than the 60 Minutes interview last week, but she comes across as being really evasive, talking in platitudes but with nothing actually behind them, and of acting as if she had nothing to do with the last four years despite being the incumbent VP.
Meanwhile, Republican Twitter is laughing themselves silly and saying please Kamala do Joe Rogan, while Democrat Twitter is either saying nothing out of a hatred of Fox News, or saying that it’s the best political interview of all time.
Did she dance to her Spotify playlist for 30 min while not answering questions?
You do know that Trump only did that because there was a medical emergency in the hall? He stopped the event so that paramedics could attend to those affected.
And the Trump fans complain we're on a 24hr spin cycle.
Baier: More than 70% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track... You've been in office for 3.5 years
Kamala: "And Donald Trump has been running for office."
Baier: "But you've been the person holding the office."
I watched the interview; she was surprisingly unwooden, and that was the nearest thing to a gotcha moment. All in all, I think she acquitted herself reasonably well,
Yes. I feel that she did quite well in the interview. Avoided any elephant traps which I guess is a small victory.
Kamala has just finished a good interview on Fox. Quite combative. She's on form.
I thought she did very well and didn’t take any nonsense from Brett Baier who was desperate for a gotcha moment and failed.
In terms of polls Fox just released their national poll which had Trump ahead by 2 , 50 to 48 with a caveat that Harris is leading by 6 points in the swing states which seems strange given the topline . One thing that I found interesting in the write up . Essentially Harris isn’t doing quite as well in deep blue states which she will still win and Trump is doing better in his deep red states .
This then opens up what would be a real irony if Harris loses the national vote but wins the EC ! Of course then Trump will implode of course forgetting that he did the same thing in 2016 .
I still think that scenario is somewhat unlikely but who knows !
I have been recommending that bet (Trump PV, Harris EV) for some time. I think it is highly likely that Trump will dramatically outperform 2020 in NY and California, but put in a very similar performance in the swing states.
However: I think it is nailed on that the Republicans take the Senate. The House, I would make the Democrats the (very narrow) favorites.
I am considering that bet, the problem I have is working through the (then) logical conclusions for what it suggests for the overall result.
If Trump wins the PV vote, that means he has made fairly significant gains amongst certain groups. Which groups are those likely to be? WWC (particularly male), Hispanics and potentially Black males. In all three instances, they probably have outsized importance in swing states. So you would have to assume he has made gains in these groups but, geographically, not in the areas he needs to win but the other non-important states. Possible but unlikely.
I would say it was a certainty with Black males given the rather desperate tweets this week from the Harris camp. They seem worried.
I do not know why but my twitter feed, apart from the usual stuff of football, old actors, finance, pensions and old Telly, seems to have a few right wing talking head types from the US. God knows why. I have never expressed any interest in the US election there. All seem to think the Harris interview was a crash and burn. A total disaster. So I am going to assume she did okay.
Why does your Twitter feed suddenly have right-sing talking head types pop up in it? I’m sure the answer is entirely unrelated to Elon Musk becoming a major cheerleader for Trump and being promised a major job in his administration.
Just wait until the block function is disabled (just announced). Pure coincidence that's a couple of weeks before the election, naturally.
Kamala has just finished a good interview on Fox. Quite combative. She's on form.
I thought she did very well and didn’t take any nonsense from Brett Baier who was desperate for a gotcha moment and failed.
In terms of polls Fox just released their national poll which had Trump ahead by 2 , 50 to 48 with a caveat that Harris is leading by 6 points in the swing states which seems strange given the topline . One thing that I found interesting in the write up . Essentially Harris isn’t doing quite as well in deep blue states which she will still win and Trump is doing better in his deep red states .
This then opens up what would be a real irony if Harris loses the national vote but wins the EC ! Of course then Trump will implode of course forgetting that he did the same thing in 2016 .
I still think that scenario is somewhat unlikely but who knows !
I have been recommending that bet (Trump PV, Harris EV) for some time. I think it is highly likely that Trump will dramatically outperform 2020 in NY and California, but put in a very similar performance in the swing states.
However: I think it is nailed on that the Republicans take the Senate. The House, I would make the Democrats the (very narrow) favorites.
I am considering that bet, the problem I have is working through the (then) logical conclusions for what it suggests for the overall result.
If Trump wins the PV vote, that means he has made fairly significant gains amongst certain groups. Which groups are those likely to be? WWC (particularly male), Hispanics and potentially Black males. In all three instances, they probably have outsized importance in swing states. So you would have to assume he has made gains in these groups but, geographically, not in the areas he needs to win but the other non-important states. Possible but unlikely.
As you say, it could be that he is surging in blue areas such as CA and NY, and that is where most of his votes are coming from apart from the swing states. That is possible but then you probably would have the GOP tobe favourites to take the House, given the preponderance of swing seats in those states.
My thinking at the moment is, given the poor performance of the polling (especially at state level), you generally look more to what campaigns are doing and where money is going to determine what the campaigns are thinking. FWIW, I do wonder what the US threatening to ban some arms sales to Israel has to do with what the Democrats are seeing in Michigan, with regards to the Arab vote.
FYI, two states caught my eye. One was New Mexico. Demographics similar to AZ / NV but very little polling done. The early voting totals so far are 50% Democrat / 37% Republican, which is decent for the former but I would have expected more. The other is Virginia. Just looking at a random sample of the counties, the percentage of mail in ballots returned generally looks higher in Republican counties than Democrat ones, although most of the early voting is in person.
Start release some UK voting intention polls please - it's getting ridiculous.
We’ve had 7 in October. That’s more than one every 3 days. Why on earth do we need more?
I am working on the assumption that renegade pollster works for one of the big guys who have thus far maintained a trappist silence.
Did you object to breaking news when Elvis died, or John Lennon?
According to Wikipedia:-
As of 2020, the band have sold a total of 70 million records worldwide, making them one of the best-selling boy bands of all time. The band have won nearly 200 awards, including seven Brit Awards, four MTV Video Music Awards, six Billboard Music Awards, seven American Music Awards (including Artist of the Year in 2014 and 2015), and 28 Teen Choice Awards. In 2013, they earned an estimated $75 million, becoming the second highest earning celebrity under 30 according to Forbes. As the world's best-selling artist of 2013, the group was named the Global Recording Artist of the Year by the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry. In 2014, Billboard named the band "Artist of the Year". Forbes ranked them as the fourth highest-earning celebrities in the world in 2015, and subsequently in second in 2016. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Direction
But he ain't exactly Harry Styles...
Thankfully I have managed to avoid both their oueuvres.
I am very sorry he has died though. His family must be devastated.
Comments
I do not know why but my twitter feed, apart from the usual stuff of football, old actors, finance, pensions and old Telly, seems to have a few right wing talking head types from the US. God knows why. I have never expressed any interest in the US election there. All seem to think the Harris interview was a crash and burn. A total disaster. So I am going to assume she did okay.
Based on the reports it may not have been, sadly. He seemed troubled.
According to Wikipedia:-
As of 2020, the band have sold a total of 70 million records worldwide, making them one of the best-selling boy bands of all time. The band have won nearly 200 awards, including seven Brit Awards, four MTV Video Music Awards, six Billboard Music Awards, seven American Music Awards (including Artist of the Year in 2014 and 2015), and 28 Teen Choice Awards. In 2013, they earned an estimated $75 million, becoming the second highest earning celebrity under 30 according to Forbes. As the world's best-selling artist of 2013, the group was named the Global Recording Artist of the Year by the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry. In 2014, Billboard named the band "Artist of the Year". Forbes ranked them as the fourth highest-earning celebrities in the world in 2015, and subsequently in second in 2016.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Direction
Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/science-secretary-broke-ministerial-code-by-hiring-donor-firm-employee-say-tories/ar-AA1snOdG?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a9deae2640d0425da6649e4b15182964&ei=36
Even little villages will often have one massive and aggressively ugly tower block
I know that they have to build quite cheaply because of earthquakes and wars and typhoons. I know that they used to build in wood and all the nice stuff got burnt down
But still. My god
And I love Japan and the Japanese
We can't have States (any state) having agents roaming the world taking out any of their exiled citizens who are saying stuff they don't like.
Eric Trump: There was nothing about that interview that showed any kind of strength, any kind of backbone.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846694768526741689
This one was a shooting, in a country with comparatively few handguns. That other members of the same dissident group also received threats, doesn’t exactly help the cause of the Indian government. Barely more subtle than a Novichok poisoning.
NEW THREAD
Pure coincidence that's a couple of weeks before the election, naturally.
I am very sorry he has died though. His family must be devastated.