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Your regular reminder that the betting markets are frequently and spectacularly wrong

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I thought this sort of thing wasn't supposed to happen anymore with a Labour government.

    "London Underground workers to strike next month over pay, union says"

    https://news.sky.com/story/london-underground-workers-to-strike-next-month-over-pay-union-says-13234456

    I tried to use a black cab for the first time in about 3 years yesterday and had the clichéd "nah, I don't want to do it mate - not going that way" response. When I asked how long it would take he then described the impact on him and his schedule for the rest of the day rather than mine, so I gave up and went back to the delayed tube.

    I just won't bother again, or just use Uber.

    It really does remind you how utterly self-serving Unions can be, and, yes, I put cabbies in that category despite their Reformy views.

    t really does remind you how utterly self-serving Unions can be, and, yes, I put cabbies in that category despite their Reformy views.
    I believe it was lobbying by the yellow cab drivers that scotched a decent public transport link from JFK to Manhattan being developed. The taxi fare now is a standard 70 dollars plus extras and tolls meaning very little change from $100. But the alternatives are not much cheaper and a lot less convenient - partic after enduring a transatlantic flight. A real stitch-up.
    Wait until they introduce electric air-taxis.
    That kind of trip is the perfect market for them, though they'll start operating in the more welcoming regulatory environment of California first.
    Pan-Am used to do helicopter transfers from JFK to Manhattan back in the ‘70s. It eventually got shut down by the FAA after too many accidents, one of which involved an helicopter crashing into the landing site building but mostly ending up on the street below.
    Drones (certainly the ones being developed) are far safer than helicopters - and far quieter.
    But they need to *prove* their much better safety to the authorities. It’ll only need one to end up in bits on Manhattan streets before they’re banned again for another technology cycle..
    They will.
    But in California first.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,194

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    I see Trump is now 1.66/1.67 on Betfair. Very tempting to lay him again at this price but I'm already deep red on Trump.

    It's surely got to be close to his floor price with the present polls.

    Even with Harris' DEI dross on the socials.
    I'd be really embarrassed and cringed out by some of this stuff if I was black. My school has a BHM thing where they are teaching Year 5 and 6 how to do rap; like all black people love marijuana and rap.

    It'd be like doing a piece on White people where we all love gin & tonic and Baroque music.
    The original motivation for Black History Month was precisely to teach the less well known history of black people in order to dispel the lazy stereotypes, not to create an opportunity to reinforce those stereotypes. That's maddening.
    Or this weird desire to make up stories or massively over state that black people were involved in famous moments in European history. Also, I always find it rather weird the obsession in relation to specifically black people, not people with say Asian or Arabic heritage.
    British people think they are American, so efforts to defeat racism concentrate on bettering the lot of Black people descended from slaves, whereas most non-white people in the UK aren't Black, and those who are are either descended from people in the Caribbean or from Africa directly. I've heard the term "ethnic mix of metropolitan Los Angeles" used to describe the phenomenon. It is a really weird aspect of the UK that it can't even develop a racism of its own but has to import one from the Confederate states.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    I take back all the rude things I have ever said about Sir Gavin WIlliamson.

    Tory MPs want Corbyn’s support to oust bishops from House of Lords

    Sir Gavin Williamson is trying to amend Labour’s reform bill to remove the right of the Archbishop of Canterbury and his colleagues to sit in the upper house


    Conservative MPs will seek to make common cause with Jeremy Corbyn to oust bishops from the House of Lords as part of Labour’s reform drive.

    Labour MPs face being embarrassed as they are forced to vote in favour of keeping Anglican bishops in the Lords as they back plans to oust hereditary peers.

    The bill, which passed its second reading on Tuesday evening, will remove the 92 remaining hereditary peers from the Lords in what ministers have described as the biggest constitutional overhaul in a quarter of a century.

    However, Sir Gavin Williamson, the Tory former chief whip, is putting forward an amendment that would remove bishops from the House of Lords, arguing that Labour’s modernisation does not go far enough.

    After ministers said it was “indefensible” for hereditary peers to sit in the upper house, Williamson has argued that the exclusive right of 26 Anglican clerics to sit in the chamber is equally outdated. Ministers have said they will consider reducing the number of bishops at a later date, but that kicking out hereditary peers has to come first.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-mps-jeremy-corbyn-h9x8zjgjd

    Gavin Williamson is an utter disgrace and I will tell him so on twitter this morning.

    Tories are supposed to stand up for Crown, our peers and landed interest and our Anglican Bishops and established church.

    I can just about see such a move from a Liberal like you but from an elected Tory MP like Williamson it is completely unacceptable. He should be fighting to keep hereditary peers AND Church of England Bishops in the Lords
    But why, HYUFD? You take this as axiomatic - but there has to be a reason why standing up for these things is a good: why some people (besides the bishops themselves) will be better off as a result. For most people it's "I believe X, Y and Z are good things for reasons, A, B and C - therefore I will support party P". For you it appears to be "I support party P - therefore I believe X, Y and Z are good things - and the reasons are almost irrelevant."
    Because it is a TRUE TORY principle for God's sake!!!!!!

    Anyone who is not willing to stand up for our King, our hereditary peers and landed estates and C of E Bishops is NOT a TRUE TORY and does NOT deserve to be representing Tory colours.

    How on earth Williamson has the gall to call himself a Knight of the Realm after this oikish moronic behaviour is beyond me.

    I have a good mind to write to Baroness May and ask her to request the King strip him of his knighthood she got for him
    You’ll have to write to Boris Johnson, it was he got Williamson knighted.
    He also sacked him from the Cabinet
    https://www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2021/09/15/gavin-williamson-sacked-as-education-secretary/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,381
    Why would a hardcore racist not endorse the candidate whose campaign is predicated on whipping up fear and mistrust of immigrants?

    I guess it must be that he's economically very savvy and therefore violently opposed to tariffs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    Received by ballot forms and submitted my online vote for Jenrick
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,068

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    This week’s edition of the world isn’t as shit as I thought it was. In a small way.

    I bought a coffee a Costa in Kings Cross. I’ve not bought coffee from Costa for years, because it’s crap. It wasn’t crap. It was actually quite decent.

    Then I got on the train and found an unreserved seat at a table. Bloody hell.

    Only downside having to walk past all the half empty first class coaches wondering what business these days pays for its people to travel first class? Bastards.

    My business pays for first class travel so I have a table to work from and a power socket to plug in my laptop.
    And you wonder why the ROIC is in the single digits…

    Just to be clear, I am think about costs. Not suggesting that the more work you do the more ROIC falls…

    Although on reflection…
    Dodgy analysis.

    What you should look at is things like staff retention rates when you have decent benefits, expense allowances, and flexible working practices.

    For example my employer makes sure you don’t have to use holiday allowance for routine medical appointments.

    You save money in the long term with that approach.
    Is it time for my daily rant about the state of education?

    If it will cheer @Northern_Al up I’m willing to throw in a prediction of Pakistan to win by an innings…
    Still sticking with that prediction?
    Not by an innings, perhaps 🙂

    In all seriousness, this isn’t a great performance with the bat. Duckett apart, everyone has got in and got out. Batting last on this pitch they need a big lead. Right now I would say Pakistan are favourites.
    You just reverse jinxed us.
    The world’s gone weird. I predict an England disaster and one happens. It’s October and I’m sat outside not feeling cold. And it’s in London* and I’m not feeling utterly miserable.

    *OK, so Russell Square Gardens which is one of the nice bits of London, but still.
    It’s shit weather in Leeds. Misty drizzle and about 15C.
    Glorious here in north London, as it always is when @Leon is abroad.
    Given that this is nearly all the time I presume it is always sunny in south london
    I lived in South London until aged 21, and I don't remember a single day when the weather wasn't glorious. In some respect.
    It’s closer to the equator than North London, so with the stronger sun there’s more than a little touch of the subtropics. But it brings with it the risk of malaria and yellow fever.
  • Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    And here we have it. The daily Harris lovefest.

    Cannot wait for this election to be over.

    What are you doing on this site ?
    There's been a significant shift in the odds, for no readily discernible reason. It would be exceedingly odd if people didn't discuss it.

    Your characterisation of the discussion is equally odd.

    I shall probably only bet on the night of the election, as I did last time when Biden's odds drifted during the counting so I did well.
    There were loads of “oh, Trump again, good night” comments here on the night last time, when Biden was 10/1 or thereabouts on Betfair.

    Everyone seems to forget that US elections take literally weeks to count and two months to certify, nearly three months before the new President is sworn in. No-one else does this, and in the UK everyone is used to seeing the handover within 24 hours. 2010 is the only exception in my lifetime, when it still took less than a week.
    We had the results PDQ as usual in 2010; it was just that the politicians took a while to sort out what was going to happen.
    One of the fastest coalition formations anywhere in the world, can think of very few that have ever been quicker.
  • @Leon - as a fellow middle aged white male, would be interested in your take on racism there. Japan is the only country I have been to where I have suffered prejudice for my ethnicity. Being shooed away from sitting next to someone in a vacant seat on trains, that sort of thing. Quietly but very firmly, and in a way that says very clearly that they find me offensive. And it's more than just the well-publicised and understandable pushback against overtourism. This was on a run of the mill half empty Shinkansen. My spouse and I are quiet, considerate people. I wasn't exactly traumatised by it, but it was sobering.

    I can't say I noticed any racism at all during our recent holiday in Japan, despite having been warned beforehand about it. The closest occasions were perhaps school kids saying hello in English, having assumed from our appearance that we were foreign, and being told in a slightly condescending manner how cute my feeble attempts to speak Japanese sounded. Nobody seemed to make any attempt to avoid us, and people seemed happy to plop themselves down next to us on the subway despite there being other seats free.

    Of course, our experiences may have atypical, or they may have been different had we been darker skinned or behaved in ways contrary to Japanese norms or were looking for work, etc, but on the whole I felt perfectly comfortable there as a tourist.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,771
    edited October 16
    Amazing night in Osaka. Started off as an official street food tour, then my guide (an ex Welsh punk rocker) realised I like the crazier things in life (tho the street food in Osaka is yum)

    So we went to this red light district in Osaka

    It consists of four streets of historic two storey wooden Japanese houses

    What you can’t see is that inside of each of those open front rooms is one madam - a woman over 30 or 40 reading her phone or vaping, squatting on the floor. Behind each madam is an exquisitely beautiful Japanese girl - in a negligee or hot pants or school uniform or bikini. Aged about 18-22

    The deal is you order cake from the madam. Literally: a cake. These are “cafes” allegedly. Then you take the cake upstairs to the second floor with the girl and… have your way (don’t know if you eat the cake; I would)

    The girls are amazingly pretty and they sit on their fluffy pillows, individually presented for your pleasure like those exquisite perfect gift-melons you get in a high-end Tokyo department store

    I made my excuses and left. Eventually. But not without a certain yearning


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    I see Trump is now 1.66/1.67 on Betfair. Very tempting to lay him again at this price but I'm already deep red on Trump.

    It's surely got to be close to his floor price with the present polls.

    Even with Harris' DEI dross on the socials.
    I'd be really embarrassed and cringed out by some of this stuff if I was black. My school has a BHM thing where they are teaching Year 5 and 6 how to do rap; like all black people love marijuana and rap.

    It'd be like doing a piece on White people where we all love gin & tonic and Baroque music.
    What's wrong with introducing the young to weird new tastes? I don't think I had a G&T till I was about 24.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,194
    Omnium said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    +5 poll today with Harris at 52% (+3 from previous, Marist). 6-4 looks bonkers big to me tbh. Topping up a ton on her.

    I think someone with a lot of money is playing silly beggars betting on Trump for some reason. Could be an insurance bet or it could be a deliberate attempt to create a narrative. It's big market, approaching £100million, so it's an expensive strategy. Who could afford it?
    A single whale is distorting the Pennsylvania position on Polymarket. Rumour is it's Musk

    https://nitter.poast.org/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155#m
    Could be part of the "steal" strategy? If Trump loses one source of "evidence" that the election was rigged and stolen would be - in his head at least - that he was the favourite on betting sites.
    No, I think it's part of the same strategy employed by Andrea Leadsom's husband (allegedly!) and Clement Freud (unashamedly), which is betting on your candidate to keep them in the public eye.
    To be fair I think we ought to call this the Brian Rose strategy. No better exemplar is likely to arise.
    Indeed
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    Leon said:

    Amazing night in Osaka. Started off as an official street food tour, then my guide (an ex Welsh punk rocker) realised I like the crazier things in life (tho the street food in Osaka is yum)

    So we went to this red light district in Osaka

    It consists of four streets of historic two storey wooden Japanese houses

    What you can’t see is that inside of each of those open front rooms is one madam - a woman over 30 or 40 reading her phone or vaping, squatting on the floor. Behind each madam is an exquisitely beautiful Japanese girl - in a negligee or hot pants or school uniform or bikini. Aged about 18-22

    The deal is you order cake from the madam. Literally: a cake. These are “cafes” allegedly. Then you take the cake upstairs to the second floor with the girl and… have your way (don’t know if you eat the cake; I would)

    The girls are amazingly pretty and they sit on their fluffy pillows, individually presented for your pleasure like those exquisite perfect gift-melons you get in a high-end Tokyo department store

    I made my excuses and left. Eventually. But not without a certain yearning

    It would seem very rude not to eat the cake...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    This week’s edition of the world isn’t as shit as I thought it was. In a small way.

    I bought a coffee a Costa in Kings Cross. I’ve not bought coffee from Costa for years, because it’s crap. It wasn’t crap. It was actually quite decent.

    Then I got on the train and found an unreserved seat at a table. Bloody hell.

    Only downside having to walk past all the half empty first class coaches wondering what business these days pays for its people to travel first class? Bastards.

    My business pays for first class travel so I have a table to work from and a power socket to plug in my laptop.
    And you wonder why the ROIC is in the single digits…

    Just to be clear, I am think about costs. Not suggesting that the more work you do the more ROIC falls…

    Although on reflection…
    Dodgy analysis.

    What you should look at is things like staff retention rates when you have decent benefits, expense allowances, and flexible working practices.

    For example my employer makes sure you don’t have to use holiday allowance for routine medical appointments.

    You save money in the long term with that approach.
    Is it time for my daily rant about the state of education?

    If it will cheer @Northern_Al up I’m willing to throw in a prediction of Pakistan to win by an innings…
    Still sticking with that prediction?
    Not by an innings, perhaps 🙂

    In all seriousness, this isn’t a great performance with the bat. Duckett apart, everyone has got in and got out. Batting last on this pitch they need a big lead. Right now I would say Pakistan are favourites.
    You just reverse jinxed us.
    The world’s gone weird. I predict an England disaster and one happens. It’s October and I’m sat outside not feeling cold. And it’s in London* and I’m not feeling utterly miserable.

    *OK, so Russell Square Gardens which is one of the nice bits of London, but still.
    It’s shit weather in Leeds. Misty drizzle and about 15C.
    Glorious here in north London, as it always is when @Leon is abroad.
    Given that this is nearly all the time I presume it is always sunny in south london
    I lived in South London until aged 21, and I don't remember a single day when the weather wasn't glorious. In some respect.
    It’s closer to the equator than North London, so with the stronger sun there’s more than a little touch of the subtropics. But it brings with it the risk of malaria and yellow fever.
    Indeed. Tho' it has parakeets and all.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCIg5n44YIE
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,381
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Former KKK leader David Duke endorses Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein.
    https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1846297949665386655

    This joins 'Leon voting Labour' on the list of things that make my brain hurt.
    Stein is a big fan of Putin, apparently.
    So she's more than a bit fash curious.
    Ah ok. Still, Trump is also a Putin fan and you get all the racist stuff too with him. So I'd have thought he'd have been the one for DD.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    Elon Musk has donated $75m (£58m) to Donald Trump’s re-election bid, catapulting the Tesla billionaire into the ranks of Republican Party mega-donors.

    The world’s richest man gave the sum to the pro-Trump America political action committee (PAC) in the three months to September after endorsing him for president in July.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,068
    edited October 16
    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    I see Trump is now 1.66/1.67 on Betfair. Very tempting to lay him again at this price but I'm already deep red on Trump.

    It's surely got to be close to his floor price with the present polls.

    Even with Harris' DEI dross on the socials.
    I'd be really embarrassed and cringed out by some of this stuff if I was black. My school has a BHM thing where they are teaching Year 5 and 6 how to do rap; like all black people love marijuana and rap.

    It'd be like doing a piece on White people where we all love gin & tonic and Baroque music.
    The original motivation for Black History Month was precisely to teach the less well known history of black people in order to dispel the lazy stereotypes, not to create an opportunity to reinforce those stereotypes. That's maddening.
    Or this weird desire to make up stories or massively over state that black people were involved in famous moments in European history. Also, I always find it rather weird the obsession in relation to specifically black people, not people with say Asian or Arabic heritage.
    British people think they are American, so efforts to defeat racism concentrate on bettering the lot of Black people descended from slaves, whereas most non-white people in the UK aren't Black, and those who are are either descended from people in the Caribbean or from Africa directly. I've heard the term "ethnic mix of metropolitan Los Angeles" used to describe the phenomenon. It is a really weird aspect of the UK that it can't even develop a racism of its own but has to import one from the Confederate states.
    Us importing the political reference points of America is a definite social media age issue. They seem to be doing some of the same in reverse, for example the obsession over trans seems to have originated here and been picked up in the US (I’d welcome being proved wrong on this).

    In the post-internet but pre-social media era there was a lot of importation of US climate sceptic tropes going on but that seems to have abated a little.

    Thankfully we haven’t taken on their
    arguments over abortion or guns, nor they our fixation on social class.

    The other perhaps more positive cross fertilisation recently has been the rise of YIMBY as a philosophy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656
    Leon said:

    Amazing night in Osaka. Started off as an official street food tour, then my guide (an ex Welsh punk rocker) realised I like the crazier things in life (tho the street food in Osaka is yum)

    So we went to this red light district in Osaka

    It consists of four streets of historic two storey wooden Japanese houses

    What you can’t see is that inside of each of those open front rooms is one madam - a woman over 30 or 40 reading her phone or vaping, squatting on the floor. Behind each madam is an exquisitely beautiful Japanese girl - in a negligee or hot pants or school uniform or bikini. Aged about 18-22

    The deal is you order cake from the madam. Literally: a cake. These are “cafes” allegedly. Then you take the cake upstairs to the second floor with the girl and… have your way (don’t know if you eat the cake; I would)

    The girls are amazingly pretty and they sit on their fluffy pillows, individually presented for your pleasure like those exquisite perfect gift-melons you get in a high-end Tokyo department store

    I made my excuses and left. Eventually. But not without a certain yearning


    You need to be careful about the cake
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,711
    "Private individual pays to repatriate Alex Salmond's body after request to use RAF rejected"

    https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-government-pays-to-repatriate-alex-salmonds-body-after-foreign-office-rejects-request-to-use-raf-13234488
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,771
    edited October 16

    Leon said:

    Amazing night in Osaka. Started off as an official street food tour, then my guide (an ex Welsh punk rocker) realised I like the crazier things in life (tho the street food in Osaka is yum)

    So we went to this red light district in Osaka

    It consists of four streets of historic two storey wooden Japanese houses

    What you can’t see is that inside of each of those open front rooms is one madam - a woman over 30 or 40 reading her phone or vaping, squatting on the floor. Behind each madam is an exquisitely beautiful Japanese girl - in a negligee or hot pants or school uniform or bikini. Aged about 18-22

    The deal is you order cake from the madam. Literally: a cake. These are “cafes” allegedly. Then you take the cake upstairs to the second floor with the girl and… have your way (don’t know if you eat the cake; I would)

    The girls are amazingly pretty and they sit on their fluffy pillows, individually presented for your pleasure like those exquisite perfect gift-melons you get in a high-end Tokyo department store

    I made my excuses and left. Eventually. But not without a certain yearning

    It would seem very rude not to eat the cake...
    Weird thing is, as I walked down that street I got a totally unexpected yearning for a slice of Battenberg

    What are the chances?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,819

    Elon Musk has donated $75m (£58m) to Donald Trump’s re-election bid, catapulting the Tesla billionaire into the ranks of Republican Party mega-donors.

    The world’s richest man gave the sum to the pro-Trump America political action committee (PAC) in the three months to September after endorsing him for president in July.

    He and Trump will fall out one day.
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    edited October 16
    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    I see Trump is now 1.66/1.67 on Betfair. Very tempting to lay him again at this price but I'm already deep red on Trump.

    It's surely got to be close to his floor price with the present polls.

    Even with Harris' DEI dross on the socials.
    I'd be really embarrassed and cringed out by some of this stuff if I was black. My school has a BHM thing where they are teaching Year 5 and 6 how to do rap; like all black people love marijuana and rap.

    It'd be like doing a piece on White people where we all love gin & tonic and Baroque music.
    The original motivation for Black History Month was precisely to teach the less well known history of black people in order to dispel the lazy stereotypes, not to create an opportunity to reinforce those stereotypes. That's maddening.
    Or this weird desire to make up stories or massively over state that black people were involved in famous moments in European history. Also, I always find it rather weird the obsession in relation to specifically black people, not people with say Asian or Arabic heritage.
    British people think they are American, so efforts to defeat racism concentrate on bettering the lot of Black people descended from slaves, whereas most non-white people in the UK aren't Black, and those who are are either descended from people in the Caribbean or from Africa directly. I've heard the term "ethnic mix of metropolitan Los Angeles" used to describe the phenomenon. It is a really weird aspect of the UK that it can't even develop a racism of its own but has to import one from the Confederate states.
    Us importing the political reference points of America is a definite social media age issue. They seem to be doing some of the same in reverse, for example the obsession over trans seems to have originated here and been picked up in the US (I’d welcome being proved wrong on this).

    In the post-internet but pre-social media era there was a lot of importation of US sceptic tropes going on but that seems to have abated a little.

    Thankfully we haven’t taken on their
    arguments over abortion or guns, nor they our fixation on social class.
    The backlash to the trans stuff started here as some older grizzled feminists and lesbians found themselves getting into situations with very aggressive men who thought that wearing a wig would make them literally a woman. People got cancelled quietly until it all blew up when they tried to take down Jo Rowling. With the old saying, you come at the King, you better not miss coming to mind.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,893
    Omnium said:

    Elon Musk has donated $75m (£58m) to Donald Trump’s re-election bid, catapulting the Tesla billionaire into the ranks of Republican Party mega-donors.

    The world’s richest man gave the sum to the pro-Trump America political action committee (PAC) in the three months to September after endorsing him for president in July.

    He and Trump will fall out one day.
    Of a plane hopefully
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    Elon Musk has donated $75m (£58m) to Donald Trump’s re-election bid, catapulting the Tesla billionaire into the ranks of Republican Party mega-donors.

    The world’s richest man gave the sum to the pro-Trump America political action committee (PAC) in the three months to September after endorsing him for president in July.

    BOYCOTT TESLA!!!

    (just kiddin')
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    edited October 16
    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right. Also reminder to everybody, just buy the travel insurance, its costs pennies. I had a relative that died abroad without insurance and it costs crazy money to get them repatriated.
  • @Leon - as a fellow middle aged white male, would be interested in your take on racism there. Japan is the only country I have been to where I have suffered prejudice for my ethnicity. Being shooed away from sitting next to someone in a vacant seat on trains, that sort of thing. Quietly but very firmly, and in a way that says very clearly that they find me offensive. And it's more than just the well-publicised and understandable pushback against overtourism. This was on a run of the mill half empty Shinkansen. My spouse and I are quiet, considerate people. I wasn't exactly traumatised by it, but it was sobering.

    I can't say I noticed any racism at all during our recent holiday in Japan, despite having been warned beforehand about it. The closest occasions were perhaps school kids saying hello in English, having assumed from our appearance that we were foreign, and being told in a slightly condescending manner how cute my feeble attempts to speak Japanese sounded. Nobody seemed to make any attempt to avoid us, and people seemed happy to plop themselves down next to us on the subway despite there being other seats free.

    Of course, our experiences may have atypical, or they may have been different had we been darker skinned or behaved in ways contrary to Japanese norms or were looking for work, etc, but on the whole I felt perfectly comfortable there as a tourist.
    My God man, you are British, it is not possible to be foreign anywhere in the world.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,068
    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    This week’s edition of the world isn’t as shit as I thought it was. In a small way.

    I bought a coffee a Costa in Kings Cross. I’ve not bought coffee from Costa for years, because it’s crap. It wasn’t crap. It was actually quite decent.

    Then I got on the train and found an unreserved seat at a table. Bloody hell.

    Only downside having to walk past all the half empty first class coaches wondering what business these days pays for its people to travel first class? Bastards.

    My business pays for first class travel so I have a table to work from and a power socket to plug in my laptop.
    And you wonder why the ROIC is in the single digits…

    Just to be clear, I am think about costs. Not suggesting that the more work you do the more ROIC falls…

    Although on reflection…
    Dodgy analysis.

    What you should look at is things like staff retention rates when you have decent benefits, expense allowances, and flexible working practices.

    For example my employer makes sure you don’t have to use holiday allowance for routine medical appointments.

    You save money in the long term with that approach.
    Is it time for my daily rant about the state of education?

    If it will cheer @Northern_Al up I’m willing to throw in a prediction of Pakistan to win by an innings…
    Still sticking with that prediction?
    Not by an innings, perhaps 🙂

    In all seriousness, this isn’t a great performance with the bat. Duckett apart, everyone has got in and got out. Batting last on this pitch they need a big lead. Right now I would say Pakistan are favourites.
    You just reverse jinxed us.
    The world’s gone weird. I predict an England disaster and one happens. It’s October and I’m sat outside not feeling cold. And it’s in London* and I’m not feeling utterly miserable.

    *OK, so Russell Square Gardens which is one of the nice bits of London, but still.
    It’s shit weather in Leeds. Misty drizzle and about 15C.
    Glorious here in north London, as it always is when @Leon is abroad.
    Given that this is nearly all the time I presume it is always sunny in south london
    I lived in South London until aged 21, and I don't remember a single day when the weather wasn't glorious. In some respect.
    It’s closer to the equator than North London, so with the stronger sun there’s more than a little touch of the subtropics. But it brings with it the risk of malaria and yellow fever.
    Indeed. Tho' it has parakeets and all.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCIg5n44YIE
    They’re native to South London, along with macaws and toucans. They’re an invasive species North of the river.

    We regularly have up to 30 of the squawky bastards in our back garden, chasing away the other bird life. They are immune from cat predation.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,771
    One of many things that amused me tonight was my guide insisting I was in “the roughest part of Osaka, really sketchy”

    It felt about as edgy as Wick on a wet Wednesday, only with brilliant food and women under 20 stone

    The Japanese must be truly horrified by the actual menace when they come to western cities, let alone Africa or Latin America
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right.
    Did he not have travel insurance? Surprising for someone who did a lot of travelling.

    Should the RAF turn up to scoop up the body of any former politician, and if so where should the line be drawn?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    .

    Elon Musk has donated $75m (£58m) to Donald Trump’s re-election bid, catapulting the Tesla billionaire into the ranks of Republican Party mega-donors.

    The world’s richest man gave the sum to the pro-Trump America political action committee (PAC) in the three months to September after endorsing him for president in July.

    He's spent a great deal more turning a substantial portion of his website into a Trump propaganda platform.
    But that's plausibly deniable and doesn't have to be declared.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right. Also reminder to everybody, just buy the travel insurance, its costs pennies. I had a relative that died abroad without insurance and it costs crazy money to get them repatriated.
    He didn't have travel insurance? Or managed to find one that avoided offering zillions in repatriation expenses?

    Either seems unlikely.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,657
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Former KKK leader David Duke endorses Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein.
    https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1846297949665386655

    That's gonna piss Trump off
    Is it ?
    The opposite, I'd have thought. I bet there's been 'words'.
    I would have thought that it would encourage some alt right Trump supporters to follow Duke and vote for Stein instead.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,917
    Omnium said:

    Elon Musk has donated $75m (£58m) to Donald Trump’s re-election bid, catapulting the Tesla billionaire into the ranks of Republican Party mega-donors.

    The world’s richest man gave the sum to the pro-Trump America political action committee (PAC) in the three months to September after endorsing him for president in July.

    He and Trump will fall out one day.
    "Trump on electric vehicles: 'They don’t go far, they cost a fortune'
    https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=trump on electric cars&mid=E1BCE0B6137F6C20180AE1BCE0B6137F6C20180A&ajaxhist=0
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,819

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right.
    The same David Davis who has done more harm to the UK through his inactivity when in post that Napoleon could have dreamed of?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    Omnium said:

    Elon Musk has donated $75m (£58m) to Donald Trump’s re-election bid, catapulting the Tesla billionaire into the ranks of Republican Party mega-donors.

    The world’s richest man gave the sum to the pro-Trump America political action committee (PAC) in the three months to September after endorsing him for president in July.

    He and Trump will fall out one day.
    Almost as soon as Trump isn't re-elected, I'd guess.
    It's pretty transactional, even if they share certain sympathies.
  • Elon Musk has donated $75m (£58m) to Donald Trump’s re-election bid, catapulting the Tesla billionaire into the ranks of Republican Party mega-donors.

    The world’s richest man gave the sum to the pro-Trump America political action committee (PAC) in the three months to September after endorsing him for president in July.

    BOYCOTT TESLA!!!

    (just kiddin')
    I'll be in the market for a new EV in a year or two, and there's not a chance that it'll be a Tesla.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083

    Elon Musk has donated $75m (£58m) to Donald Trump’s re-election bid, catapulting the Tesla billionaire into the ranks of Republican Party mega-donors.

    The world’s richest man gave the sum to the pro-Trump America political action committee (PAC) in the three months to September after endorsing him for president in July.

    What's that in Taylor Swift tickets?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618
    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    This week’s edition of the world isn’t as shit as I thought it was. In a small way.

    I bought a coffee a Costa in Kings Cross. I’ve not bought coffee from Costa for years, because it’s crap. It wasn’t crap. It was actually quite decent.

    Then I got on the train and found an unreserved seat at a table. Bloody hell.

    Only downside having to walk past all the half empty first class coaches wondering what business these days pays for its people to travel first class? Bastards.

    My business pays for first class travel so I have a table to work from and a power socket to plug in my laptop.
    And you wonder why the ROIC is in the single digits…

    Just to be clear, I am think about costs. Not suggesting that the more work you do the more ROIC falls…

    Although on reflection…
    Dodgy analysis.

    What you should look at is things like staff retention rates when you have decent benefits, expense allowances, and flexible working practices.

    For example my employer makes sure you don’t have to use holiday allowance for routine medical appointments.

    You save money in the long term with that approach.
    Is it time for my daily rant about the state of education?

    If it will cheer @Northern_Al up I’m willing to throw in a prediction of Pakistan to win by an innings…
    Still sticking with that prediction?
    Not by an innings, perhaps 🙂

    In all seriousness, this isn’t a great performance with the bat. Duckett apart, everyone has got in and got out. Batting last on this pitch they need a big lead. Right now I would say Pakistan are favourites.
    You just reverse jinxed us.
    The world’s gone weird. I predict an England disaster and one happens. It’s October and I’m sat outside not feeling cold. And it’s in London* and I’m not feeling utterly miserable.

    *OK, so Russell Square Gardens which is one of the nice bits of London, but still.
    It’s shit weather in Leeds. Misty drizzle and about 15C.
    Glorious here in north London, as it always is when @Leon is abroad.
    Given that this is nearly all the time I presume it is always sunny in south london
    I lived in South London until aged 21, and I don't remember a single day when the weather wasn't glorious. In some respect.
    It’s closer to the equator than North London, so with the stronger sun there’s more than a little touch of the subtropics. But it brings with it the risk of malaria and yellow fever.
    Indeed. Tho' it has parakeets and all.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCIg5n44YIE
    I can attest that many parakeets stray north of the river, although I suspect they find it rather cold this side of the Thames outside high summer.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,711
    edited October 16
    Leon said:

    One of many things that amused me tonight was my guide insisting I was in “the roughest part of Osaka, really sketchy”

    It felt about as edgy as Wick on a wet Wednesday, only with brilliant food and women under 20 stone

    The Japanese must be truly horrified by the actual menace when they come to western cities, let alone Africa or Latin America

    Spent 6 days in Tokyo in 2014 and never felt safer walking around even though I was lost most of the time (deliberately so).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    edited October 16

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right. Also reminder to everybody, just buy the travel insurance, its costs pennies. I had a relative that died abroad without insurance and it costs crazy money to get them repatriated.
    He didn't have travel insurance? Or managed to find one that avoided offering zillions in repatriation expenses?

    Either seems unlikely.
    You will be surprised how many people cheap out on not getting travel insurance, or think its the EU, so I don't need it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    edited October 16
    Leon said:

    One of many things that amused me tonight was my guide insisting I was in “the roughest part of Osaka, really sketchy”

    It felt about as edgy as Wick on a wet Wednesday, only with brilliant food and women under 20 stone

    The Japanese must be truly horrified by the actual menace when they come to western cities, let alone Africa or Latin America

    My understanding is that there is crime and violence if you really go looking, it is just in general kept off the street and away from civilians. Its bad for business.
  • Leon said:

    One of many things that amused me tonight was my guide insisting I was in “the roughest part of Osaka, really sketchy”

    It felt about as edgy as Wick on a wet Wednesday, only with brilliant food and women under 20 stone

    The Japanese must be truly horrified by the actual menace when they come to western cities, let alone Africa or Latin America

    My understanding is that there is crime and violence if you really go looking, it is just in general kept off the street and away from civilians. Its bad for business.
    Umbrella theft is rampant according to my mate in Osaka.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656
    edited October 16

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right. Also reminder to everybody, just buy the travel insurance, its costs pennies. I had a relative that died abroad without insurance and it costs crazy money to get them repatriated.
    He didn't have travel insurance? Or managed to find one that avoided offering zillions in repatriation expenses?

    Either seems unlikely.
    You will be surprised how many people cheap out on not getting travel insurance, or think its the EU, so I don't need it.
    Would the old E111 thingy cover stuff like repatriation of a body? IIRC you got the same public healthcare as the locals got, which was often a lot less than you might have expected.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right. Also reminder to everybody, just buy the travel insurance, its costs pennies. I had a relative that died abroad without insurance and it costs crazy money to get them repatriated.
    He didn't have travel insurance? Or managed to find one that avoided offering zillions in repatriation expenses?

    Either seems unlikely.
    You will be surprised how many people cheap out on not getting travel insurance, or think its the EU, so I don't need it.
    Would the old E111 thingy cover stuff like repatriation of a body? IIRC you got the same public healthcare as the locals got, which was often a lot less than you might have expected.
    No I don't believe it would have, but people don't think they are going to die on holiday.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,917

    Elon Musk has donated $75m (£58m) to Donald Trump’s re-election bid, catapulting the Tesla billionaire into the ranks of Republican Party mega-donors.

    The world’s richest man gave the sum to the pro-Trump America political action committee (PAC) in the three months to September after endorsing him for president in July.

    BOYCOTT TESLA!!!

    (just kiddin')
    I'll be in the market for a new EV in a year or two, and there's not a chance that it'll be a Tesla.
    He does make good cars and spacecraft, shame he doesn't stick to that.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    I take back all the rude things I have ever said about Sir Gavin WIlliamson.

    Tory MPs want Corbyn’s support to oust bishops from House of Lords

    Sir Gavin Williamson is trying to amend Labour’s reform bill to remove the right of the Archbishop of Canterbury and his colleagues to sit in the upper house


    Conservative MPs will seek to make common cause with Jeremy Corbyn to oust bishops from the House of Lords as part of Labour’s reform drive.

    Labour MPs face being embarrassed as they are forced to vote in favour of keeping Anglican bishops in the Lords as they back plans to oust hereditary peers.

    The bill, which passed its second reading on Tuesday evening, will remove the 92 remaining hereditary peers from the Lords in what ministers have described as the biggest constitutional overhaul in a quarter of a century.

    However, Sir Gavin Williamson, the Tory former chief whip, is putting forward an amendment that would remove bishops from the House of Lords, arguing that Labour’s modernisation does not go far enough.

    After ministers said it was “indefensible” for hereditary peers to sit in the upper house, Williamson has argued that the exclusive right of 26 Anglican clerics to sit in the chamber is equally outdated. Ministers have said they will consider reducing the number of bishops at a later date, but that kicking out hereditary peers has to come first.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-mps-jeremy-corbyn-h9x8zjgjd

    Gavin Williamson is an utter disgrace and I will tell him so on twitter this morning.

    Tories are supposed to stand up for Crown, our peers and landed interest and our Anglican Bishops and established church.

    I can just about see such a move from a Liberal like you but from an elected Tory MP like Williamson it is completely unacceptable. He should be fighting to keep hereditary peers AND Church of England Bishops in the Lords
    But why, HYUFD? You take this as axiomatic - but there has to be a reason why standing up for these things is a good: why some people (besides the bishops themselves) will be better off as a result. For most people it's "I believe X, Y and Z are good things for reasons, A, B and C - therefore I will support party P". For you it appears to be "I support party P - therefore I believe X, Y and Z are good things - and the reasons are almost irrelevant."
    Because it is a TRUE TORY principle for God's sake!!!!!!

    Anyone who is not willing to stand up for our King, our hereditary peers and landed estates and C of E Bishops is NOT a TRUE TORY and does NOT deserve to be representing Tory colours.

    How on earth Williamson has the gall to call himself a Knight of the Realm after this oikish moronic behaviour is beyond me.

    I have a good mind to write to Baroness May and ask her to request the King strip him of his knighthood she got for him
    You’ll have to write to Boris Johnson, it was he got Williamson knighted.
    I still think there may have been some "Gavin, you're benighted"/"Gavin you'll be knighted" confusion there. Even Boris wasn't that daft, was he?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    edited October 16

    Leon said:

    One of many things that amused me tonight was my guide insisting I was in “the roughest part of Osaka, really sketchy”

    It felt about as edgy as Wick on a wet Wednesday, only with brilliant food and women under 20 stone

    The Japanese must be truly horrified by the actual menace when they come to western cities, let alone Africa or Latin America

    My understanding is that there is crime and violence if you really go looking, it is just in general kept off the street and away from civilians. Its bad for business.
    Umbrella theft is rampant according to my mate in Osaka.
    12 Unspoken Rules NOT to Break in Japan
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_kYN7f8qUg

    Leaving your phone or handbag when you go to the bathroom or to purchase something from the counter to tell everybody that that table is taken.....so don't try and hand it in as lost.

    Can't see this one working in European cities.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right. Also reminder to everybody, just buy the travel insurance, its costs pennies. I had a relative that died abroad without insurance and it costs crazy money to get them repatriated.
    You'd expect Alba's insurance to cough up if needed, surely? Assuming this was an official Alba thing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,885

    Pensioners will get an increase in their benefits more than double that of working age benefit holders.



    Torsten Bell
    @TorstenBell
    ·
    3h
    On the basis of today’s inflation figures you can make that more than double

    https://x.com/TorstenBell/status/1846471711325065725

    Assuming the government don't "reform" the triple lock.
    This is the thing, if they were going to go for pensioner ire early on then they should have targeted the triple lock, not the WFA. The potential savings are much bigger and compound over 5 years while the WFA is a one of adjustment.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,423
    Leon said:

    Amazing night in Osaka. Started off as an official street food tour, then my guide (an ex Welsh punk rocker) realised I like the crazier things in life (tho the street food in Osaka is yum)

    So we went to this red light district in Osaka

    It consists of four streets of historic two storey wooden Japanese houses

    What you can’t see is that inside of each of those open front rooms is one madam - a woman over 30 or 40 reading her phone or vaping, squatting on the floor. Behind each madam is an exquisitely beautiful Japanese girl - in a negligee or hot pants or school uniform or bikini. Aged about 18-22

    The deal is you order cake from the madam. Literally: a cake. These are “cafes” allegedly. Then you take the cake upstairs to the second floor with the girl and… have your way (don’t know if you eat the cake; I would)

    The girls are amazingly pretty and they sit on their fluffy pillows, individually presented for your pleasure like those exquisite perfect gift-melons you get in a high-end Tokyo department store

    I made my excuses and left. Eventually. But not without a certain yearning


    Eat your cake and have it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    edited October 16
    Labour MP Paul Davies has taken on Dominic Shellard, the controversial former vice-chancellor of De Montfort University, as a member of his parliamentary staff. Co-conspirators might remember “Professor Moneybags” Shellard, who hit the headlines in 2019 for his eye-watering £350,000 salary, a plush rent-free flat, and £57,000 in travel expenses. Between 2016-2017 alone, he spent £37,790 on flights, £15,422 on hotels as well as the University funding his £2,700 membership to a private club in Covent Garden. All while presiding over a university that ranked a dismal 67th in the UK…

    Shellard became a lightning rod for the backlash against exorbitant vice-chancellor pay, eventually resigning amid allegations of bullying and mismanagement. Remarkably, Shellard was sent away with £260,000 in “compensation for loss of office” plus a £10,000 bonus. Following his resignation, the Office for Students concluded that there were “significant and systemic” issues with the University’s management, promising to “improve” oversights including breaches of the University’s Financial Regulations…

    Shellard’s reputation for temperament isn’t exactly glowing either. Senior staff at the University told The Mail at the time: “The guy was a bully”, whilst another said his temper tantrums would lead him to be “red in the face, veins bulging, literally screaming.” Now he’s working for a Labour MP.

    https://order-order.com/2024/10/16/labour-mp-hands-disgraced-university-vice-chancellor-office-job/

    Surprised he was willing to take such a pay cut.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    It seems unlikely that this might save Tester's Senate seat, but odder things have happened.
    In any event, some of the GOP voter ID laws don't appear to have quite worked out as planned.

    https://x.com/leuchtman/status/1846015469876072771
    ..."The Legislature and the SoS fucked us. They put a lot of people on the inactive voter file, and to become active, they had to either respond to the postcard, or provide proof of residence when they show at the poll."

    That didn't seem like a big deal to me. So I said "I thought you guys love Voter ID laws. What's the problem?"

    His answer floored me.
    "The people without the ID in Montana aren't minority and young voters, you can't do anything in Montana without a driver's license, so everyone has one, except for the anti-government nuts who don't want the government to know where they are. They live up in the hills, the house and vehicles are in their wife's names, and they don't have any ID. We let them vote with a mail to their address and register the day of, before. Now the legislature iced out 50-60k of our voters."..


    I'm not betting on it, though I do have a small wager on the Republicans not having control of the Senate.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Amazing night in Osaka. Started off as an official street food tour, then my guide (an ex Welsh punk rocker) realised I like the crazier things in life (tho the street food in Osaka is yum)

    So we went to this red light district in Osaka

    It consists of four streets of historic two storey wooden Japanese houses

    What you can’t see is that inside of each of those open front rooms is one madam - a woman over 30 or 40 reading her phone or vaping, squatting on the floor. Behind each madam is an exquisitely beautiful Japanese girl - in a negligee or hot pants or school uniform or bikini. Aged about 18-22

    The deal is you order cake from the madam. Literally: a cake. These are “cafes” allegedly. Then you take the cake upstairs to the second floor with the girl and… have your way (don’t know if you eat the cake; I would)

    The girls are amazingly pretty and they sit on their fluffy pillows, individually presented for your pleasure like those exquisite perfect gift-melons you get in a high-end Tokyo department store

    I made my excuses and left. Eventually. But not without a certain yearning


    Eat your cake and have it?
    Or have your cake and eat ....
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    And here we have it. The daily Harris lovefest.

    Cannot wait for this election to be over.

    What are you doing on this site ?
    There's been a significant shift in the odds, for no readily discernible reason. It would be exceedingly odd if people didn't discuss it.

    Your characterisation of the discussion is equally odd.

    I shall probably only bet on the night of the election, as I did last time when Biden's odds drifted during the counting so I did well.
    There were loads of “oh, Trump again, good night” comments here on the night last time, when Biden was 10/1 or thereabouts on Betfair.

    Everyone seems to forget that US elections take literally weeks to count and two months to certify, nearly three months before the new President is sworn in. No-one else does this, and in the UK everyone is used to seeing the handover within 24 hours. 2010 is the only exception in my lifetime, when it still took less than a week.
    We had the results PDQ as usual in 2010; it was just that the politicians took a while to sort out what was going to happen.
    One of the fastest coalition formations anywhere in the world, can think of very few that have ever been quicker.
    Indeed. The Lib Dems might have done well to take their time a bit and negotiate harder.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    And here we have it. The daily Harris lovefest.

    Cannot wait for this election to be over.

    What are you doing on this site ?
    There's been a significant shift in the odds, for no readily discernible reason. It would be exceedingly odd if people didn't discuss it.

    Your characterisation of the discussion is equally odd.

    I shall probably only bet on the night of the election, as I did last time when Biden's odds drifted during the counting so I did well.
    There were loads of “oh, Trump again, good night” comments here on the night last time, when Biden was 10/1 or thereabouts on Betfair.

    Everyone seems to forget that US elections take literally weeks to count and two months to certify, nearly three months before the new President is sworn in. No-one else does this, and in the UK everyone is used to seeing the handover within 24 hours. 2010 is the only exception in my lifetime, when it still took less than a week.
    We had the results PDQ as usual in 2010; it was just that the politicians took a while to sort out what was going to happen.
    One of the fastest coalition formations anywhere in the world, can think of very few that have ever been quicker.
    Indeed. The Lib Dems might have done well to take their time a bit and negotiate harder.
    And count their fingers after shaking on the deal ?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,670

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right. Also reminder to everybody, just buy the travel insurance, its costs pennies. I had a relative that died abroad without insurance and it costs crazy money to get them repatriated.
    He didn't have travel insurance? Or managed to find one that avoided offering zillions in repatriation expenses?

    Either seems unlikely.
    You will be surprised how many people cheap out on not getting travel insurance, or think its the EU, so I don't need it.
    It's odd. The EHIC (now GHIC) card cautions - on the back - that it isn't a substitute for travel insurance.

    Plus a young healthy person pays £20 a year for a europe travel insurance policy. I'm 43 with a couple of chronic conditions, and it's still only £30 for worldwide ex US.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    My Trump hedge (which I might increase if I bet more on Harris) is his getting 270-299 EVs.
    Thoughts ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,068

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Amazing night in Osaka. Started off as an official street food tour, then my guide (an ex Welsh punk rocker) realised I like the crazier things in life (tho the street food in Osaka is yum)

    So we went to this red light district in Osaka

    It consists of four streets of historic two storey wooden Japanese houses

    What you can’t see is that inside of each of those open front rooms is one madam - a woman over 30 or 40 reading her phone or vaping, squatting on the floor. Behind each madam is an exquisitely beautiful Japanese girl - in a negligee or hot pants or school uniform or bikini. Aged about 18-22

    The deal is you order cake from the madam. Literally: a cake. These are “cafes” allegedly. Then you take the cake upstairs to the second floor with the girl and… have your way (don’t know if you eat the cake; I would)

    The girls are amazingly pretty and they sit on their fluffy pillows, individually presented for your pleasure like those exquisite perfect gift-melons you get in a high-end Tokyo department store

    I made my excuses and left. Eventually. But not without a certain yearning


    Eat your cake and have it?
    Or have your cake and eat ....
    I pondered making that reply but declined out of delicacy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656

    Leon said:

    One of many things that amused me tonight was my guide insisting I was in “the roughest part of Osaka, really sketchy”

    It felt about as edgy as Wick on a wet Wednesday, only with brilliant food and women under 20 stone

    The Japanese must be truly horrified by the actual menace when they come to western cities, let alone Africa or Latin America

    My understanding is that there is crime and violence if you really go looking, it is just in general kept off the street and away from civilians. Its bad for business.
    Umbrella theft is rampant according to my mate in Osaka.
    12 Unspoken Rules NOT to Break in Japan
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_kYN7f8qUg

    Leaving your phone or handbag when you go to the bathroom or to purchase something from the counter to tell everybody that that table is taken.....so don't try and hand it in as lost.

    Can't see this one working in European cities.
    LOL, sandpit is exactly the same.

    When in the UK, I need to forget that one doesn’t leave his iPad and wallet on the bar or at the table when going for a pee.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,885
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    One of many things that amused me tonight was my guide insisting I was in “the roughest part of Osaka, really sketchy”

    It felt about as edgy as Wick on a wet Wednesday, only with brilliant food and women under 20 stone

    The Japanese must be truly horrified by the actual menace when they come to western cities, let alone Africa or Latin America

    My understanding is that there is crime and violence if you really go looking, it is just in general kept off the street and away from civilians. Its bad for business.
    Umbrella theft is rampant according to my mate in Osaka.
    12 Unspoken Rules NOT to Break in Japan
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_kYN7f8qUg

    Leaving your phone or handbag when you go to the bathroom or to purchase something from the counter to tell everybody that that table is taken.....so don't try and hand it in as lost.

    Can't see this one working in European cities.
    LOL, sandpit is exactly the same.

    When in the UK, I need to forget that one doesn’t leave his iPad and wallet on the bar or at the table when going for a pee.
    Getting one's hands chopped off for theft is probably a pretty strong deterrent...
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 806
    edited October 16
    Leon said:

    Amazing night in Osaka. Started off as an official street food tour, then my guide (an ex Welsh punk rocker) realised I like the crazier things in life (tho the street food in Osaka is yum)

    So we went to this red light district in Osaka

    It consists of four streets of historic two storey wooden Japanese houses

    What you can’t see is that inside of each of those open front rooms is one madam - a woman over 30 or 40 reading her phone or vaping, squatting on the floor. Behind each madam is an exquisitely beautiful Japanese girl - in a negligee or hot pants or school uniform or bikini. Aged about 18-22

    The deal is you order cake from the madam. Literally: a cake. These are “cafes” allegedly. Then you take the cake upstairs to the second floor with the girl and… have your way (don’t know if you eat the cake; I would)

    The girls are amazingly pretty and they sit on their fluffy pillows, individually presented for your pleasure like those exquisite perfect gift-melons you get in a high-end Tokyo department store

    I made my excuses and left. Eventually. But not without a certain yearning


    @Leon - as a fellow middle aged white male, would be interested in your take on racism there. Japan is the only country I have been to where I have suffered prejudice for my ethnicity. Being shooed away from sitting next to someone in a vacant seat on trains, that sort of thing. Quietly but very firmly, and in a way that says very clearly that they find me offensive. And it's more than just the well-publicised and understandable pushback against overtourism. This was on a run of the mill half empty Shinkansen. My spouse and I are quiet, considerate people. I wasn't exactly traumatised by it, but it was sobering.

    I can't say I noticed any racism at all during our recent holiday in Japan, despite having been warned beforehand about it. The closest occasions were perhaps school kids saying hello in English, having assumed from our appearance that we were foreign, and being told in a slightly condescending manner how cute my feeble attempts to speak Japanese sounded. Nobody seemed to make any attempt to avoid us, and people seemed happy to plop themselves down next to us on the subway despite there being other seats free.

    Of course, our experiences may have atypical, or they may have been different had we been darker skinned or behaved in ways contrary to Japanese norms or were looking for work, etc, but on the whole I felt perfectly comfortable there as a tourist.
    I believe it's Osaka where I was told one may experience both of the above (casual extreme racism + a relaxed attitude to prostitution) in quite a curious establishment. I don't have Leon's writing ability so I will descrbie it crudely but accurately to what I heard. Essentially you pay £100 for a Japanese girl or £80 for a Korean girl. But when it's almost time, you tap her on the shoulder, and she stops - they bring a Chinese one, and you finish in her mouth. Essentially she goes from cubicle to cubicle swallowing semen, while the "superior races"' dental hygeine is preserved.

    I don't know her job title or what this has to do with Alex Salmond.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Amazing night in Osaka. Started off as an official street food tour, then my guide (an ex Welsh punk rocker) realised I like the crazier things in life (tho the street food in Osaka is yum)

    So we went to this red light district in Osaka

    It consists of four streets of historic two storey wooden Japanese houses

    What you can’t see is that inside of each of those open front rooms is one madam - a woman over 30 or 40 reading her phone or vaping, squatting on the floor. Behind each madam is an exquisitely beautiful Japanese girl - in a negligee or hot pants or school uniform or bikini. Aged about 18-22

    The deal is you order cake from the madam. Literally: a cake. These are “cafes” allegedly. Then you take the cake upstairs to the second floor with the girl and… have your way (don’t know if you eat the cake; I would)

    The girls are amazingly pretty and they sit on their fluffy pillows, individually presented for your pleasure like those exquisite perfect gift-melons you get in a high-end Tokyo department store

    I made my excuses and left. Eventually. But not without a certain yearning


    Eat your cake and have it?
    Or have your cake and eat ....
    I pondered making that reply but declined out of delicacy.
    I don't know what you were thinking, I was thinking a nice bowl of Ramen after the fact :-)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,795
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right.
    Did he not have travel insurance? Surprising for someone who did a lot of travelling.

    Should the RAF turn up to scoop up the body of any former politician, and if so where should the line be drawn?
    I'm not convinced it's what he would have wanted. A Loganair Twin Otter, perhaps.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,917
    The World’s Unexpected TRUE Superpower
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hR8wy4B_sTg
    for Brexiteers
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    One of many things that amused me tonight was my guide insisting I was in “the roughest part of Osaka, really sketchy”

    It felt about as edgy as Wick on a wet Wednesday, only with brilliant food and women under 20 stone

    The Japanese must be truly horrified by the actual menace when they come to western cities, let alone Africa or Latin America

    My understanding is that there is crime and violence if you really go looking, it is just in general kept off the street and away from civilians. Its bad for business.
    Umbrella theft is rampant according to my mate in Osaka.
    12 Unspoken Rules NOT to Break in Japan
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_kYN7f8qUg

    Leaving your phone or handbag when you go to the bathroom or to purchase something from the counter to tell everybody that that table is taken.....so don't try and hand it in as lost.

    Can't see this one working in European cities.
    LOL, sandpit is exactly the same.

    When in the UK, I need to forget that one doesn’t leave his iPad and wallet on the bar or at the table when going for a pee.
    Getting one's hands chopped off for theft is probably a pretty strong deterrent...
    The Saudis did indeed do that until quite recently…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,711
    "Modern Life: What is micro-cheating? By Charlotte Metcalf"

    https://www.theoldie.co.uk/blog/modern-life-what-is-micro-cheating
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

    Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

    The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

    Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,319
    MaxPB said:

    Pensioners will get an increase in their benefits more than double that of working age benefit holders.



    Torsten Bell
    @TorstenBell
    ·
    3h
    On the basis of today’s inflation figures you can make that more than double

    https://x.com/TorstenBell/status/1846471711325065725

    Assuming the government don't "reform" the triple lock.
    This is the thing, if they were going to go for pensioner ire early on then they should have targeted the triple lock, not the WFA. The potential savings are much bigger and compound over 5 years while the WFA is a one of adjustment.
    Yes absolutely agree. If they'd made it 1% instead of 2.5% then we would probably be saving loads of money and pensioners would still be better off than otherwise. Plus people wouldn't 'feel' as shortchanged, whereas losing WFA feels worse.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,381
    Nigelb said:

    My Trump hedge (which I might increase if I bet more on Harris) is his getting 270-299 EVs.
    Thoughts ?

    Yes, that works. I have 2 hedges.

    Him to win PA. And to win the EC but lose the PV.
  • A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

    Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

    The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

    Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/

    Another poll with labour sub 30%
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806
    Wee bit of a howler from the BBC (or 'National Business Crime Solution' mentioned as source, but not sure whether they made and labelled the image) on a story about a gang targeting champagne theft.

    Image below (hotlinked, so will become correct if they update it). If that's Manchester then it moving substantially East is surely the bigger story (Sheffield, is it? Bit too south to be Leeds?). You'd think, now the Beeb have a base in Manchester they'd have some idea where it is!

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pensioners will get an increase in their benefits more than double that of working age benefit holders.



    Torsten Bell
    @TorstenBell
    ·
    3h
    On the basis of today’s inflation figures you can make that more than double

    https://x.com/TorstenBell/status/1846471711325065725

    Assuming the government don't "reform" the triple lock.
    This is the thing, if they were going to go for pensioner ire early on then they should have targeted the triple lock, not the WFA. The potential savings are much bigger and compound over 5 years while the WFA is a one of adjustment.
    Yes absolutely agree. If they'd made it 1% instead of 2.5% then we would probably be saving loads of money and pensioners would still be better off than otherwise. Plus people wouldn't 'feel' as shortchanged, whereas losing WFA feels worse.
    More sensibly - announced a future, large scale change to pensions and old age allowances.

    Think lots of merging, changes etc which included scrapping the WFA

    Wrap it in a large increase this year - but less threreafter.

    Sell it with a big campaign showing proportionally higher rises for poor pensioners + simplification of claiming.
  • The late Alex Salmond was supporting the Scots couple taking the Scottish Government to court over the WFP

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0egy1kv0qo
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806

    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Amazing night in Osaka. Started off as an official street food tour, then my guide (an ex Welsh punk rocker) realised I like the crazier things in life (tho the street food in Osaka is yum)

    So we went to this red light district in Osaka

    It consists of four streets of historic two storey wooden Japanese houses

    What you can’t see is that inside of each of those open front rooms is one madam - a woman over 30 or 40 reading her phone or vaping, squatting on the floor. Behind each madam is an exquisitely beautiful Japanese girl - in a negligee or hot pants or school uniform or bikini. Aged about 18-22

    The deal is you order cake from the madam. Literally: a cake. These are “cafes” allegedly. Then you take the cake upstairs to the second floor with the girl and… have your way (don’t know if you eat the cake; I would)

    The girls are amazingly pretty and they sit on their fluffy pillows, individually presented for your pleasure like those exquisite perfect gift-melons you get in a high-end Tokyo department store

    I made my excuses and left. Eventually. But not without a certain yearning


    Eat your cake and have it?
    Or have your cake and eat ....
    I pondered making that reply but declined out of delicacy.
    I don't know what you were thinking, I was thinking a nice bowl of Ramen after the fact :-)
    Still trying to work out the cake on the sign of that first shop on the left...

    Nice to see that the Japanese still have an equivalent of Lyons Corner Houses though :smile:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656

    A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

    Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

    The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

    Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/

    Another poll with labour sub 30%
    Interesting to contrast the difference between the UK and US here. In the UK no-one has more than 30%, in the US no-one has less than 48%.

    I’m pretty sure the fragmentation is better than the polarisation.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,795
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pensioners will get an increase in their benefits more than double that of working age benefit holders.



    Torsten Bell
    @TorstenBell
    ·
    3h
    On the basis of today’s inflation figures you can make that more than double

    https://x.com/TorstenBell/status/1846471711325065725

    Assuming the government don't "reform" the triple lock.
    This is the thing, if they were going to go for pensioner ire early on then they should have targeted the triple lock, not the WFA. The potential savings are much bigger and compound over 5 years while the WFA is a one of adjustment.
    Yes absolutely agree. If they'd made it 1% instead of 2.5% then we would probably be saving loads of money and pensioners would still be better off than otherwise. Plus people wouldn't 'feel' as shortchanged, whereas losing WFA feels worse.
    The problem is that the State Pension keeps a lot of poorer pensioners out of poverty, but politically impossible to means test it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,545

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    And here we have it. The daily Harris lovefest.

    Cannot wait for this election to be over.

    What are you doing on this site ?
    There's been a significant shift in the odds, for no readily discernible reason. It would be exceedingly odd if people didn't discuss it.

    Your characterisation of the discussion is equally odd.

    I shall probably only bet on the night of the election, as I did last time when Biden's odds drifted during the counting so I did well.
    There were loads of “oh, Trump again, good night” comments here on the night last time, when Biden was 10/1 or thereabouts on Betfair.

    Everyone seems to forget that US elections take literally weeks to count and two months to certify, nearly three months before the new President is sworn in. No-one else does this, and in the UK everyone is used to seeing the handover within 24 hours. 2010 is the only exception in my lifetime, when it still took less than a week.
    We had the results PDQ as usual in 2010; it was just that the politicians took a while to sort out what was going to happen.
    One of the fastest coalition formations anywhere in the world, can think of very few that have ever been quicker.
    True. Especially when compared with, say, Belgium.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    Nigelb said:

    The swaying to the music in a semi-trance thing wasn't a one-off, then.
    It's a gamble whether he makes it to November.

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1846364035073110405

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1846368537868201994

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1846370848820596941

    In contrast to Trump's strange, rambling, shambling performance, Biden seems to have rediscovered a hit of energy.
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1846336329887723792

    It's almost as though the wrong octogenarian dropped out.
    (I'd be happier of both had.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656
    edited October 16
    Selebian said:

    Wee bit of a howler from the BBC (or 'National Business Crime Solution' mentioned as source, but not sure whether they made and labelled the image) on a story about a gang targeting champagne theft.

    Image below (hotlinked, so will become correct if they update it). If that's Manchester then it moving substantially East is surely the bigger story (Sheffield, is it? Bit too south to be Leeds?). You'd think, now the Beeb have a base in Manchester they'd have some idea where it is!

    image

    Their “Manchester” is pointing at Barnsley.

    The actual Manchester is the bright red one to the North-Eastern side of the “Liverpool” conurbation.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,949
    Selebian said:

    Wee bit of a howler from the BBC (or 'National Business Crime Solution' mentioned as source, but not sure whether they made and labelled the image) on a story about a gang targeting champagne theft.

    Image below (hotlinked, so will become correct if they update it). If that's Manchester then it moving substantially East is surely the bigger story (Sheffield, is it? Bit too south to be Leeds?). You'd think, now the Beeb have a base in Manchester they'd have some idea where it is!

    image

    The whole article is bizarre. A gang operating in groups of 3 apparently, with at least seven members, have stolen £73k of supermarket stock, which they maybe can sell for £30k. So that would be £4-5k each profit at most, before what would be fairly extensive travel costs according to the map.

    Hardly matching the headline claiming mafia-style or deserving of national news!

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    I have questions...

    PENNSYLVANIA
    @AmericanPulseUS Poll:

    Trump 51% (+1)
    Harris 50%

    https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1846250328972210521
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806
    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    Wee bit of a howler from the BBC (or 'National Business Crime Solution' mentioned as source, but not sure whether they made and labelled the image) on a story about a gang targeting champagne theft.

    Image below (hotlinked, so will become correct if they update it). If that's Manchester then it moving substantially East is surely the bigger story (Sheffield, is it? Bit too south to be Leeds?). You'd think, now the Beeb have a base in Manchester they'd have some idea where it is!

    image

    Their “Manchester” is pointing at Barnsley.

    The actual Manchester is the bright red one to the North-Eastern side of the “Liverpool” conurbation.
    Aye (checked a real map - Sheffield's a bit too south for that to be Sheffield as I suggested, Barnsley is roughly right).

    I did know where Manchester was myself, thanks :wink:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032
    edited October 16
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right.
    Did he not have travel insurance? Surprising for someone who did a lot of travelling.

    Should the RAF turn up to scoop up the body of any former politician, and if so where should the line be drawn?
    I'm not convinced it's what he would have wanted. A Loganair Twin Otter, perhaps.
    Especially with a landing on Traigh Mhòr* on the way home.

    *The beach on Barra. Which is the local airport. Hence the flight timetable warning 'times subject to tides'.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,545
    Eabhal said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pensioners will get an increase in their benefits more than double that of working age benefit holders.



    Torsten Bell
    @TorstenBell
    ·
    3h
    On the basis of today’s inflation figures you can make that more than double

    https://x.com/TorstenBell/status/1846471711325065725

    Assuming the government don't "reform" the triple lock.
    This is the thing, if they were going to go for pensioner ire early on then they should have targeted the triple lock, not the WFA. The potential savings are much bigger and compound over 5 years while the WFA is a one of adjustment.
    Yes absolutely agree. If they'd made it 1% instead of 2.5% then we would probably be saving loads of money and pensioners would still be better off than otherwise. Plus people wouldn't 'feel' as shortchanged, whereas losing WFA feels worse.
    The problem is that the State Pension keeps a lot of poorer pensioners out of poverty, but politically impossible to means test it.
    One's OA pension counts towards taxable income though. I think, but I'm not sure that if one get's the maximum State pension, one actually has to pay a small amount of tax.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632
    Nigelb said:

    My Trump hedge (which I might increase if I bet more on Harris) is his getting 270-299 EVs.
    Thoughts ?

    Last two elections had the winner on 306 ECVs.

    rcs1000 has made a convincing argument that there's a clutch of close states that might all go one way or the other with a systematic polling error in one direction or the other: AZ, NV, GA, NC, MI, PA, WI.

    If they all go Trump he's on 311 ECVs. If they all go Harris she's on 320.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806

    Selebian said:

    Wee bit of a howler from the BBC (or 'National Business Crime Solution' mentioned as source, but not sure whether they made and labelled the image) on a story about a gang targeting champagne theft.

    Image below (hotlinked, so will become correct if they update it). If that's Manchester then it moving substantially East is surely the bigger story (Sheffield, is it? Bit too south to be Leeds?). You'd think, now the Beeb have a base in Manchester they'd have some idea where it is!

    image

    The whole article is bizarre. A gang operating in groups of 3 apparently, with at least seven members, have stolen £73k of supermarket stock, which they maybe can sell for £30k. So that would be £4-5k each profit at most, before what would be fairly extensive travel costs according to the map.

    Hardly matching the headline claiming mafia-style or deserving of national news!

    Money laundering operation, I reckon. Washing the real dirty money through inflated sales of knocked off champagne :wink:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032

    Eabhal said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pensioners will get an increase in their benefits more than double that of working age benefit holders.



    Torsten Bell
    @TorstenBell
    ·
    3h
    On the basis of today’s inflation figures you can make that more than double

    https://x.com/TorstenBell/status/1846471711325065725

    Assuming the government don't "reform" the triple lock.
    This is the thing, if they were going to go for pensioner ire early on then they should have targeted the triple lock, not the WFA. The potential savings are much bigger and compound over 5 years while the WFA is a one of adjustment.
    Yes absolutely agree. If they'd made it 1% instead of 2.5% then we would probably be saving loads of money and pensioners would still be better off than otherwise. Plus people wouldn't 'feel' as shortchanged, whereas losing WFA feels worse.
    The problem is that the State Pension keeps a lot of poorer pensioners out of poverty, but politically impossible to means test it.
    One's OA pension counts towards taxable income though. I think, but I'm not sure that if one get's the maximum State pension, one actually has to pay a small amount of tax.
    That's correct, on both points. It's only very recently, during the Parliament of Four Conservative PMs, that the State Pension max overtook the annual allowance for income tax, however, hence the indignation of many who discovered that they were due for tax assessment even allowing for the fact that savings income is peculiarly pampered in this sort of scenario.
  • NEW THREAD

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806
    edited October 16
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right.
    Did he not have travel insurance? Surprising for someone who did a lot of travelling.

    Should the RAF turn up to scoop up the body of any former politician, and if so where should the line be drawn?
    I'm not convinced it's what he would have wanted. A Loganair Twin Otter, perhaps.
    Especially with a landing on Traigh Mhòr* on the way home.

    *The beach on Barra. Which is the local airport. Hence the flight timetable warning 'times subject to tides'.
    Stayed very near there for a week one year and saw several landings and taking-offs. Bucket list to do the flight myself one day (we had a load of kit to transport, so took the ferry).

    ETA: Or is it 'takings off'? Should have played it safe and gone for 'arrivals and departures'

    E2TA: For a time, one of the OS maps of Barra had, as cover image, a photo I took not too far away from there (which doxes me to some extent, but there are a few maps that fit the bill over the years)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656
    Two wins from the British today in the Americas Cup, but still 4-2 down to the Kiwis.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sailing/2024/10/16/americas-cup-2024-live-ben-ainslie-britannia-nz-race-5-6/

    We should all be watching this like we watch the rockets, or at least the cricket, but there’s no coverage anywhere.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    edited October 16
    Nigelb said:

    I have questions...

    PENNSYLVANIA
    @AmericanPulseUS Poll:

    Trump 51% (+1)
    Harris 50%

    https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1846250328972210521

    Must be Trump 50.5, Harris 49.5 in the two way.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032
    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    "David Davis, Conservative MP and close friend of Mr Salmond, had led calls for the armed forces to get involved."

    Well I didn't know that. I hear there was a camper van that couldn't have been used?

    In all seriousness, seems a bit of an odd situation. No fan of Salmond, but having to get a private individual to stump up the bill doesn't seem quite right.
    Did he not have travel insurance? Surprising for someone who did a lot of travelling.

    Should the RAF turn up to scoop up the body of any former politician, and if so where should the line be drawn?
    I'm not convinced it's what he would have wanted. A Loganair Twin Otter, perhaps.
    Especially with a landing on Traigh Mhòr* on the way home.

    *The beach on Barra. Which is the local airport. Hence the flight timetable warning 'times subject to tides'.
    Stayed very near there for a week one year and saw several landings and taking-offs. Bucket list to do the flight myself one day (we had a load of kit to transport, so took the ferry).
    Agreed (it was a yacht in my case, so not easy to cram onto a Twotter).
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Nigelb said:

    My Trump hedge (which I might increase if I bet more on Harris) is his getting 270-299 EVs.
    Thoughts ?

    Last two elections had the winner on 306 ECVs.

    rcs1000 has made a convincing argument that there's a clutch of close states that might all go one way or the other with a systematic polling error in one direction or the other: AZ, NV, GA, NC, MI, PA, WI.

    If they all go Trump he's on 311 ECVs. If they all go Harris she's on 320.
    I agree. And it, at least in the Harris direction, might go even bigger if there is systematic error in Trump’s favour. I saw some internal GOP polling showing them up only +2 in Ohio of all places. (I know, it used to be the bell weather state, but not for a long while).

    The only reason I can think for Ohio being this close is differential gender turnout because of the abortion issue. Remember, Ohio voted for abortion rights in a statewide referendum.

    If there is a surge of women voting on the abortion issue across the country (not inconceivable), I think FL is also another possible loss for Trump, and if the surge is a tsunami, even Texas.

    I really believe that Harris is going to outperform the polling, and possible by a big margin. But I don’t have high confidence in this prediction.

    PS Marist had her +5 today nationally, which is above the +2.9 commentators think she needs to win the EC.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618
    edited October 16

    A poll of 2,000 adults by JL Partners found 28 per cent of voters have a very or quite positive view of Nigel Farage’s party, compared to 27 per cent who feel the same way about Labour.

    Forty-one per cent have a very or quite negative opinion of Reform, compraed to 47 per cent who feel very or quite negatively about Labour.

    The JL Partners polling found Labour are polling at 29 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 25 per cent and Reform UK on 19 per cent.

    Labour is now winning just over one in 10 voters aged 65 or over having previously won more than a quarter of this age group amid its winter fuel allowance raid.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/16/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-sunak-pmqs-reeves-budget/

    Another poll with labour sub 30%
    Another poll with Labour leading the Tories decisively, despite doing unpopular stuff and a hypocritical media whining on about trivial drivel like Currygate Swiftgate day after tedious day.

    Next.
  • Leon said:

    Amazing night in Osaka. Started off as an official street food tour, then my guide (an ex Welsh punk rocker) realised I like the crazier things in life (tho the street food in Osaka is yum)

    So we went to this red light district in Osaka

    It consists of four streets of historic two storey wooden Japanese houses

    What you can’t see is that inside of each of those open front rooms is one madam - a woman over 30 or 40 reading her phone or vaping, squatting on the floor. Behind each madam is an exquisitely beautiful Japanese girl - in a negligee or hot pants or school uniform or bikini. Aged about 18-22

    The deal is you order cake from the madam. Literally: a cake. These are “cafes” allegedly. Then you take the cake upstairs to the second floor with the girl and… have your way (don’t know if you eat the cake; I would)

    The girls are amazingly pretty and they sit on their fluffy pillows, individually presented for your pleasure like those exquisite perfect gift-melons you get in a high-end Tokyo department store

    I made my excuses and left. Eventually. But not without a certain yearning


    @Leon - as a fellow middle aged white male, would be interested in your take on racism there. Japan is the only country I have been to where I have suffered prejudice for my ethnicity. Being shooed away from sitting next to someone in a vacant seat on trains, that sort of thing. Quietly but very firmly, and in a way that says very clearly that they find me offensive. And it's more than just the well-publicised and understandable pushback against overtourism. This was on a run of the mill half empty Shinkansen. My spouse and I are quiet, considerate people. I wasn't exactly traumatised by it, but it was sobering.

    I can't say I noticed any racism at all during our recent holiday in Japan, despite having been warned beforehand about it. The closest occasions were perhaps school kids saying hello in English, having assumed from our appearance that we were foreign, and being told in a slightly condescending manner how cute my feeble attempts to speak Japanese sounded. Nobody seemed to make any attempt to avoid us, and people seemed happy to plop themselves down next to us on the subway despite there being other seats free.

    Of course, our experiences may have atypical, or they may have been different had we been darker skinned or behaved in ways contrary to Japanese norms or were looking for work, etc, but on the whole I felt perfectly comfortable there as a tourist.
    I believe it's Osaka where I was told one may experience both of the above (casual extreme racism + a relaxed attitude to prostitution) in quite a curious establishment. I don't have Leon's writing ability so I will descrbie it crudely but accurately to what I heard. Essentially you pay £100 for a Japanese girl or £80 for a Korean girl. But when it's almost time, you tap her on the shoulder, and she stops - they bring a Chinese one, and you finish in her mouth. Essentially she goes from cubicle to cubicle swallowing semen, while the "superior races"' dental hygeine is preserved.

    I don't know her job title or what this has to do with Alex Salmond.
    Maybe his work for Russia Today ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,194
    Nigelb said:

    My Trump hedge (which I might increase if I bet more on Harris) is his getting 270-299 EVs.
    Thoughts ?

    I swear to Goodness I don't know, I'm afraid. I've given up on the national and am looking for value in the individual states. You can still get 4/9 on Trump in Georgia and 1/3 in Arizona, and he's more ahead now than he was of Biden. So a bet on Trump in Georgia and Arizona: sound good?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    My Trump hedge (which I might increase if I bet more on Harris) is his getting 270-299 EVs.
    Thoughts ?

    I swear to Goodness I don't know, I'm afraid. I've given up on the national and am looking for value in the individual states. You can still get 4/9 on Trump in Georgia and 1/3 in Arizona, and he's more ahead now than he was of Biden. So a bet on Trump in Georgia and Arizona: sound good?
    Both those bets sound awful to me, particularly 1-3 AZ
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,194
    Pulpstar said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    My Trump hedge (which I might increase if I bet more on Harris) is his getting 270-299 EVs.
    Thoughts ?

    I swear to Goodness I don't know, I'm afraid. I've given up on the national and am looking for value in the individual states. You can still get 4/9 on Trump in Georgia and 1/3 in Arizona, and he's more ahead now than he was of Biden. So a bet on Trump in Georgia and Arizona: sound good?
    Both those bets sound awful to me, particularly 1-3 AZ
    Continued on next page...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,556

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    There’s a good book to be written (who knows, maybe it already has been) about countries that were once rich and which have become poorer, either slowly and inexorably or very rapidly. Not about rise and fall of geopolitical power, that’s different, but relative impoverishment.

    There are some interesting case studies out there alongside Japan. Argentina in the 20th century. Mexico. Portugal and China in the 16th C to late 20th. Italy from the Medicis to now. Egypt.

    Who’s next? Australia’s an interesting one. No signs right now, but it’s extremely dependent on a few commodities including coal.

    Er, the UK?
    Surely we are experiencing a long-term trend (say 300 - 500 years) where some countries took a huge leap forward and gradually the rest will all catch up?

    Which would actually be a very good thing overall, but a bit painful for those of us who grew-up in an era of rapidly improving prosperity.

    Crikey you're a defeatist misery-glutton. No wonder you voted for Keir Starmer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,381

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    There’s a good book to be written (who knows, maybe it already has been) about countries that were once rich and which have become poorer, either slowly and inexorably or very rapidly. Not about rise and fall of geopolitical power, that’s different, but relative impoverishment.

    There are some interesting case studies out there alongside Japan. Argentina in the 20th century. Mexico. Portugal and China in the 16th C to late 20th. Italy from the Medicis to now. Egypt.

    Who’s next? Australia’s an interesting one. No signs right now, but it’s extremely dependent on a few commodities including coal.

    Er, the UK?
    Surely we are experiencing a long-term trend (say 300 - 500 years) where some countries took a huge leap forward and gradually the rest will all catch up?

    Which would actually be a very good thing overall, but a bit painful for those of us who grew-up in an era of rapidly improving prosperity.

    Crikey you're a defeatist misery-glutton. No wonder you voted for Keir Starmer.
    He's right though. That is the big picture.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,757
    HYUFD said:

    Received by ballot forms and submitted my online vote for Jenrick

    Unwise decision.
This discussion has been closed.