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Your regular reminder that the betting markets are frequently and spectacularly wrong
Your regular reminder that the betting markets are frequently and spectacularly wrong – politicalbetting.com
Chart from Betdata.io of the next Tory leadership market over the last ten days
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I also remember the exit poll some financial chaps commissioned in 2016 for the referendum.
Edited extra bit: should've added, potentially dubious methods in polls can lead to them pointing in an inaccurate direction, as some have suggested may be occurring in the US contest.
Tory MPs want Corbyn’s support to oust bishops from House of Lords
Sir Gavin Williamson is trying to amend Labour’s reform bill to remove the right of the Archbishop of Canterbury and his colleagues to sit in the upper house
Conservative MPs will seek to make common cause with Jeremy Corbyn to oust bishops from the House of Lords as part of Labour’s reform drive.
Labour MPs face being embarrassed as they are forced to vote in favour of keeping Anglican bishops in the Lords as they back plans to oust hereditary peers.
The bill, which passed its second reading on Tuesday evening, will remove the 92 remaining hereditary peers from the Lords in what ministers have described as the biggest constitutional overhaul in a quarter of a century.
However, Sir Gavin Williamson, the Tory former chief whip, is putting forward an amendment that would remove bishops from the House of Lords, arguing that Labour’s modernisation does not go far enough.
After ministers said it was “indefensible” for hereditary peers to sit in the upper house, Williamson has argued that the exclusive right of 26 Anglican clerics to sit in the chamber is equally outdated. Ministers have said they will consider reducing the number of bishops at a later date, but that kicking out hereditary peers has to come first.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-mps-jeremy-corbyn-h9x8zjgjd
I feel dirty
Indeed the point of interest is why the ‘wisdom’ of the betting crowds is so often down there with Leon?
Conveniently in the month used to calculate increases to public sector pensions.
Next step is to stop the head of state being the head of the Anglican church, a clear conflict of interest.
The smart money in betting doesn't believe it can predict outcomes anyway. It just has the nous to work out when the odds are significantly out of line with real world evidence.
No one has asked if either of the failsons (or Lara) will get a job in the White House to cash out for $2B in 4 years...
...We learned last week (from the NYT*, among others!) that Trump is bypassing transition laws, meaning he--and his sons, the Saudi business partners and transition team members--could just get payments from the Saudis all the way until inauguration.
https://x.com/emptywheel/status/1846280744609681643
*buried on the inside pages.
Which demonstrates the level of uncertainty about a large range if possible outcomes for next month's election.
Nevada’s Election Oracle Says His Crystal Ball Is Broken
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-2024-election-in-nevada-is-so-hard-to-predict.html
...But the main reason for the tremendous explosion of independent voters is an automatic voter-registration law that started having an effect about three years ago. If you go to the DMV, you can register to vote as a Democrat or a Republican, but if you don’t, you are auto-registered as an independent and nonpartisan.
So that has changed the dynamic. And I think a lot of these voters, who I call zombie voters — they don’t even know they’re registered. They don’t care that much about politics. They’re not that engaged. So it’s unclear what real percentage of those voters are actually going to cast a ballot.
And that makes your life a lot more difficult in terms of predicting this stuff. You’re the Oracle of Nevada — the one guy in the country who’s been pretty accurate with early-voting data in the past.
What do you mean pretty accurate?
Sorry, I meant 100 percent.
But seriously, my crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct. And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin. I really have no idea right now. It’s so close, and both sides think it’s within a point or so...
They don't know what they're talking about if they're not doing their own analysis and research. Just blindly following others.
No attack on Oil and no attack on Nuclear.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/israel-planning-blitz-on-iran-military-sites-in-response-for-missile-attack/ar-AA1siKGs?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=1cff8f46bfe04c088773e9fb2850fef7&ei=20
https://x.com/stephensackur/status/1846166070664511853?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
1. Any Labour MPs who have profound discomfort with this can be given the day off without threatening government business.
2. It's going to split the Conservatives at least as much as the government. What will Proper Tories make of this?
This is interesting, @TSE , what do you think is going on here?
Gavin Williamson is not even on my radar, but checking he seem to be an aspirational Machiavellian, but is a bit shit at it and keeps falling flat on his face; and an enthusiastic supporter of lost causes. He reminds me of the type that furiously denies any wrongdoing in going through a set of red lights, then suddenly pleads guilty late in the day when they discover there is video footage - for the existence of which they had not bothered to check.
Abolition of CofE Bishops in the Lords is not a known Conservative crusade. Has he supported it before? I'd go for 2 possibilities:
1 - Tories want to remove Bishops because the NatCon wing have decided the Bishops are woke insiders who will try and impose Transgenderism or similar.
2 - This is an attempt to undermine the bill removing hereditaries by putting a spoke in the wheel.
Good faith desire to sort out the Lords from the Conservatives? Naaah !
Making the Lords *less* democratic.
The hard part is detecting those straws amongst the chaff. The POTUS election will be obvious afterwards. But is it the female vote for Harris or the redneck vote for Trump that is the straw in the wind?
The US strategic oil stockpile is now pretty much empty, so any price spike will quickly go to ‘gas’ pump prices weeks before the election.
Memories of the anti-Brexit campaigners in the 2017 Parliament, and their endless amendments to neuter the business of the government.
The hereditaries remained in post to force a reform of the Lords. That’s was the stolen promise Labour made.
Switching to a fully appointed house is not an improvement for democracy and different perspectives.
The second is more likely, but massively overestimates the ability of 121 MPs to affect anything. Think Scrappy Doo being held up very the collar so he punches thin air.
But ultimately... Conservatives proposing a constitutional change on a whim which they probably don't really believe in but think may give them a partisan win? Surely not.
I bought a coffee a Costa in Kings Cross. I’ve not bought coffee from Costa for years, because it’s crap. It wasn’t crap. It was actually quite decent.
Then I got on the train and found an unreserved seat at a table. Bloody hell.
Only downside having to walk past all the half empty first class coaches wondering what business these days pays for its people to travel first class? Bastards.
The US uses 20m barrels a day so that is enough to have an impact. They are also, of course, self sufficient in production, if not in every kind of oil.
It’s a national asset and probably the UK’s most powerful brand (I appreciate those features are unlikely to appeal to you). As important as Trident (ditto) and our top universities.
Sackur’s list of interviewees over the years is astonishing, hundreds of Heads of State, Heads of Government, prominent activists in opposition to governments, from every continent and of every political stripe.
The only other person who comes close in terms of interviewees is going to be Christiane Amanpour from CNN, host of a similar programme also for decades.
A very sad loss to the BBC, when there’s plenty of more trivial and expensive programmes that could be cut first.
Williamson said: “Labour promised significant reform of the House of Lords, but they are not doing that. This is an opportunity to make the House of Lords more reflective of today’s modern world.
“It’s ridiculous that the only other major country in the world that has clergy in the legislature is Iran. Isn’t it about time to wake up to the reality that this requires reform? I don’t think it’s right that as an Anglican I have much greater representation than my children, who are Catholic.”
For a start, the 2017-19 Parliament was hung, not a landslide majority. Government business was genuinely at risk every time. For the next four years, it really isn't.
Secondly, anti-Brexit types were tragicomically divided, which stopped them getting anything.
Does the Williamson amendment even have majority support amongst Conservatives?
Anyone who’s shareholders or partners pay not so much
Japan feels poor - poorer than the UK
It also feels old - mean age is 46: you can sense it: the lack of young people
It also feels empty: it is depopulating. You can sense that as well
They are driving the same cars as they were when I lived here in the mid 90s
It is. $33k per capita vs $46k in the UK. And $34k in South Korea.
Decades of demographic stagnation, excessive private saving, industrial inertia.
Tell you one thing they need: a bit of immigration.
I thought public sector pensions were inflation too?
My private defined benefit pension is also inflation (though December's IIRC) but with a maximum of 5%.
Since he emphasises he is RC, a more logical position for Williams might be to argue for broadening the role of Bishops to include senior figures from other communities, such as RC Bishops. They already usually have eg the Chief Rabbi.
How much does it cost to produce a good in depth news interview programme? Sack one Gary Lineker and you’ve probably got enough to fund it for for a decade
One of the little corporate microaggressions of the last decade and a half: the ratcheting down of generosity in travel and expenses policies. Travelling well, staying in nice hotels and having slap up meals out was one of the consolations of the hard slog of corporate life. It was inevitably going to disappear eventually, but post Covid it’s at Alan Partridge levels. My last 2 domestic overnight stays were in premier inns.
Easy enough if you’re retired and heading for an event you bought tickets for months ago, somewhat less so if travelling for work where schedules frequently change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcFLVV1idYw
It feels like a country that has completely run out of ideas
Admittedly this is day 1 - could be jet lag could be the fact I’m in Osaka - but I’m good at this. Getting an instant grasp. And there’s no denying that half the taxis are vintage Toyota Corollas - the very same cars they were driving in 1995 when I lived here
It’s like Cuba with its old Cadillacs
Rather melancholy. Japan felt like the future back then - dazzling!! Definitely doesn’t now
OTOH it is spotless and crime free and the people are lovely albeit a little melancholy
I don't think I've watched any BBC TV output this year at all.
Marist
Harris 52
Trump 47
Marquette
Harris 48
Trump 47
Have you been to Kobe? My favourite Japanese city. Just down the road.
EDIT: I see you mention you lived in Japan. So presumably yes you’ve been to most places.
It is actually an incentive to switch to a job that does not involve business travel.
Just to be clear, I am think about costs. Not suggesting that the more work you do the more ROIC falls…
Although on reflection…
I fell for a very badly labelled graph with a zero on the price y-axis but not on the volume y-axis. Reuters should be much better than that.
But that would be hard work and need thinking through. And we've only been on that for 100 years or so. So, in the meantime, lets have another reform that is not thought through but makes Labour MPs who are in the main professionals and pen pushers feel just a little bit radical, just for one day.
Imagine what would have happened if it had been on Sunak's watch. He had to do a runner.
In terms of the header, there are lots of factors affecting politics and it's hard to tell which ones matter in real time.
In addition, let them form committees that can advise the government and wider HoC on legislation and the way thing work.
That, IMO, would lead to far better legislation than just stuffing it with elected party reps.
What you should look at is things like staff retention rates when you have decent benefits, expense allowances, and flexible working practices.
For example my employer makes sure you don’t have to use holiday allowance for routine medical appointments.
You save money in the long term with that approach.
Former White House Director of Communications @Scaramucci has predicted that Kamala Harris will win the US election despite recent polling suggesting the race is to close to call.
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1846445579015991733
And what you want it to do.
Me, I think the revising functions work well, and the non-political / crossbench peers work well (eg Tanni-Grey Thompson), but the political side has more problems at the fringes.
I'm perhaps drawn to a hybrid model where there are appointed 'experts' who speak but don't have voting rights. That was a model I saw proposed by by friend Carl Gardner who way back was one of the lawyers who worked for Govt in framing iirc the Human Rights Act.
Like everything here, it will evolve not revolt.
And, yes, I usually stay in Premier Inns or Travelodge. The policy will stretch to nothing else, and the latter is truly dire.
And, yes, I usually stay in Premier Inns or Travelodge. The policy will stretch to nothing else, and the latter is truly dire.
Contrast with NOAA in the US. Funded so generously by the US military that they can give out their data for free. Result: despite having statistically much poorer weather models than either the Met Office or ECMWF, their output is everywhere.
Or the French national champions since forever: protected by regulation at home, aggressively commercial abroad.