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The Butterfly Effect – Bush vs. Gore revisited – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,823
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    I think this insane Kamala Harris racist crypto bailout policy statement COULD be her “deplorables” - whereas the Columbus Day speech was bad but not dire as it was old. This is new

    But yesterday you were saying the Columbus Day speech was Kamala’s deplorables moment.

    *emits a wearied sigh*
    You’re going to be finding a lot of deplorables moments over the next month, aren’t you?
    It's slightly odd. His contributions on the US election are not at all what you would expect from someone who'd prefer Donald Trump to lose it.
    Well look, I'd prefer Donald Trump to lose it. But Donald Trump's failings are well known. It's sadly no longer particularly interesting to say 'look at what terrible thing Donald Trump has said now' because he can't actually appear any more unhinged than he already is. If he came onto stage and held his finger horizontally on his lips and flickered it up and down going 'bibibibibibibibi', grinned and pointed at his audience, then walked off, it would no longer particularly surprise us, would it?
    Whereas Kamala becoming more awful - like the clip from 2021 yesterday, and this tweet today - is new news.
    I don't want Trump to win. But Kamala is going to blow it by being an identity-obsessed lunatic who appears to disapprove of the concept of her country and most of the people in it. Isn't she? All she had to do was appear the reasonable centrist, but she can't, because that's not where her instincts lie, and she thinks the views of the weird identity-obsessed crowd she hangs round with are the views of the whole country. It's kind of frustrating. And worthy of comment.
    That clip wasn't part of the campaign it was from 3 years ago. Hardly new news. And this today is a targeted pitch to a voter segment (young black men) who Donald Trump has been making gains with. It's nothing more or less than you'd expect her to be doing.
    But spouting shite is not the answer. Her Tweet today was ridiculous, especially the bit about Crypto.
    Do Black people have a natural talent for Crypto?
    Apparently not according to Kamala. She thinks they’re all gullible fools who need protecting from their bad investments, unlike other races
    To be honest, there probably is a reasonable point in there had she had the brains to make it rather than that Brainfart of a tweet.

    Namely that Crypto is something that could probably do with some proper oversight and regulation. She may even roll back from that tweet and start making that point.
    The proposal is a "regulatory framework for crypto and digital assets" so that seems to be what she is proposing.
    The targeting "Black men and others" is a bit odd from a UK perspective but perhaps that's normal for the US.
    Interesting it's spun as pro-digital assets, I suspect the last thing creators of digital "assets" want is a regulatory framework.
    Even worse than “black guys are easily scammed by crypto dealers” is her assumption that black men want to become, or are already, bigtime weed-dealers so the wants to make that legal

    You say this is normal for America but it’s nonsense. If a Republican put out this mad tweet - let alone Trump - the Dems would be screaming “racist stereotyping”. You know that’s true. Because it is true. This looks like racist stereotyping of a particularly infantilising and patronising kind

    Kamala might have good intentions but this is utterly misconceived and a potential major gaffe
    It looks insane. But most of American politics looks insane to me.

    (I could get this - even with the slightly bizarre pledges - if it was an email or even a pledge card sent out to black supporters/possible supporters, but pinned to the top of the Twitter profile it looks very odd)
    Trump has already been busy reposting Harris’s message about “not-Columbus Day” from yesterday.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,344

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @harris_wins

    Donald Trump’s rallies are going so poorly that Kamala Harris just played a highlight reel at her rally tonight.

    https://x.com/harris_wins/status/1845986531992879455

    If his rallies are going so poorly and recent polls have Harris ahead how do we account for his 1.79 price on bf? Too short surely?
    I have a suspicion that some of the polls and betting sites are being manipulated by the Trump campaign to set up the narrative that the election was stolen.

    They have the money to distort the betting and partisan polling outfits that hide their methodology, and they have the motive and ability.

    It might be a betting opportunity.

    Remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose.
    I'll be about £2K down if Trump wins with a landslide. On the other hand I'm cumulatively £3.2K up on all my political betting so it's Ladbroke's et al's money I'm playing with. I'll be about £2K up if Kamala wins with a landslide.
    I'm similar but a bit more. Yet I'm not kidding when I say that if I contemplate what a Trump win would mean the potential hit to my betting P/L hardly features.

    But anyway he's not winning. She is. :smile:
    As much as I want her to win because a Trump win would please Putin and embolden Nethanyahu and his economic policies would be a calamity and inflationary as well as increasing the US debt far more than hers my one comfort with him winning would be the reaction of PB's posters for Kamala on here and the grieving they would endure.
    Why would that give you comfort?
    Because their support is borderline obsessive to the extent they will brook no criticism of her. Wilful blindness and they are emotionally invested in her.

    It is a purity test here. If you dare to criticise Kamala, and she is not a great candidate, you get pulled up (as has happened to me a couple of times) for not criticising Trump in the same post.

    I am pretty much where Cookie is on Kamala v Trump. Goes without saying Trump is not going to be great for the USA but Kamala's flaws should be criticised.
    I've always vaguely supposed that people on here are so (understandably) desperate for Trump not to win that it is taboo to say that Harris is also rubbish in case it somehow persuades people not to vote for her.
    I can sort of understand this impulse in UK elections - we are all voters, after all - but I think we can safely assume our views are not being sought by the voters of Erie PA before they make up their minds. (Granted the excellent @Jim_Miller and @SeaShantyIrish2 may look in but I think it's safe to say they have already made up their minds.)
    I think we can reasonably say what we like without fear of jinxing anything.
    So is it just Jim Miller who is "excellent"? Or both me and him? Personally would agree with the former rather than latter!

    As to your statement that, "I think we can safely assume our views are not being sought by the voters of Erie PA before they make up their minds" me thinks this is true in the sense you mean.

    HOWEVER, am concerned that a segment of PBers has been working to turn PB into an adjunct AND amplifyer for Putinist pro-Trump propaganda. Does anyone actually know, is this board being (ab)used in thi way, for example being cited at validation by MAGA-mongers back in the USA?
    Both of you SSI, of couse!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,595
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @harris_wins

    Donald Trump’s rallies are going so poorly that Kamala Harris just played a highlight reel at her rally tonight.

    https://x.com/harris_wins/status/1845986531992879455

    If his rallies are going so poorly and recent polls have Harris ahead how do we account for his 1.79 price on bf? Too short surely?
    I have a suspicion that some of the polls and betting sites are being manipulated by the Trump campaign to set up the narrative that the election was stolen.

    They have the money to distort the betting and partisan polling outfits that hide their methodology, and they have the motive and ability.

    It might be a betting opportunity.

    Remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose.
    I'll be about £2K down if Trump wins with a landslide. On the other hand I'm cumulatively £3.2K up on all my political betting so it's Ladbroke's et al's money I'm playing with. I'll be about £2K up if Kamala wins with a landslide.
    I'm similar but a bit more. Yet I'm not kidding when I say that if I contemplate what a Trump win would mean the potential hit to my betting P/L hardly features.

    But anyway he's not winning. She is. :smile:
    As much as I want her to win because a Trump win would please Putin and embolden Nethanyahu and his economic policies would be a calamity and inflationary as well as increasing the US debt far more than hers my one comfort with him winning would be the reaction of PB's posters for Kamala on here and the grieving they would endure.
    "I want Kamala to win but if she loses I will find happiness in that other people who wanted her to win are unhappy."

    ONLY ON PB.
    Or in football.
    Yes precisely. Which is why I said it’s “politics as tribalism” - or “football team support”
    That is generally nonsense. People follow football teams come hell or high water. Manchester City supporters don't become Manchester United supporters.

    Lots of people are swing voters and even those that are party members will change if they find themselves out of line with their party. After all many MPs and Councillors defect. The likes of hyufd are rare beasts. I am a LD and have been all my life, but there is nothing sacred in that. If I found I was out of touch with them I would be off. Of all the posters on here I can think of only hyufd that fits the bill of tribalism and I think even he would have his breaking point.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,890

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @harris_wins

    Donald Trump’s rallies are going so poorly that Kamala Harris just played a highlight reel at her rally tonight.

    https://x.com/harris_wins/status/1845986531992879455

    If his rallies are going so poorly and recent polls have Harris ahead how do we account for his 1.79 price on bf? Too short surely?
    I have a suspicion that some of the polls and betting sites are being manipulated by the Trump campaign to set up the narrative that the election was stolen.

    They have the money to distort the betting and partisan polling outfits that hide their methodology, and they have the motive and ability.

    It might be a betting opportunity.

    Remember not to bet more than you can afford to lose.
    I'll be about £2K down if Trump wins with a landslide. On the other hand I'm cumulatively £3.2K up on all my political betting so it's Ladbroke's et al's money I'm playing with. I'll be about £2K up if Kamala wins with a landslide.
    I'm similar but a bit more. Yet I'm not kidding when I say that if I contemplate what a Trump win would mean the potential hit to my betting P/L hardly features.

    But anyway he's not winning. She is. :smile:
    As much as I want her to win because a Trump win would please Putin and embolden Nethanyahu and his economic policies would be a calamity and inflationary as well as increasing the US debt far more than hers my one comfort with him winning would be the reaction of PB's posters for Kamala on here and the grieving they would endure.
    "I want Kamala to win but if she loses I will find happiness in that other people who wanted her to win are unhappy."

    ONLY ON PB.
    So do soccer fans of Man City not find enjoyment, schadenfreude I would put it, in Man Utd losing a soccer game ?
    Yeah but – duh! – they are on different sides, not the same side!
    You can be on the same side and regard some of your fellow travellers as fanatics and be happy at their schadenfreude. Never heard of Dr Who fans 😂😂😂😂
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,347
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    I think this insane Kamala Harris racist crypto bailout policy statement COULD be her “deplorables” - whereas the Columbus Day speech was bad but not dire as it was old. This is new

    But yesterday you were saying the Columbus Day speech was Kamala’s deplorables moment.

    *emits a wearied sigh*
    You’re going to be finding a lot of deplorables moments over the next month, aren’t you?
    It's slightly odd. His contributions on the US election are not at all what you would expect from someone who'd prefer Donald Trump to lose it.
    Well look, I'd prefer Donald Trump to lose it. But Donald Trump's failings are well known. It's sadly no longer particularly interesting to say 'look at what terrible thing Donald Trump has said now' because he can't actually appear any more unhinged than he already is. If he came onto stage and held his finger horizontally on his lips and flickered it up and down going 'bibibibibibibibi', grinned and pointed at his audience, then walked off, it would no longer particularly surprise us, would it?
    Whereas Kamala becoming more awful - like the clip from 2021 yesterday, and this tweet today - is new news.
    I don't want Trump to win. But Kamala is going to blow it by being an identity-obsessed lunatic who appears to disapprove of the concept of her country and most of the people in it. Isn't she? All she had to do was appear the reasonable centrist, but she can't, because that's not where her instincts lie, and she thinks the views of the weird identity-obsessed crowd she hangs round with are the views of the whole country. It's kind of frustrating. And worthy of comment.
    That clip wasn't part of the campaign it was from 3 years ago. Hardly new news. And this today is a targeted pitch to a voter segment (young black men) who Donald Trump has been making gains with. It's nothing more or less than you'd expect her to be doing.
    But spouting shite is not the answer. Her Tweet today was ridiculous, especially the bit about Crypto.
    Do Black people have a natural talent for Crypto?
    Apparently not according to Kamala. She thinks they’re all gullible fools who need protecting from their bad investments, unlike other races
    To be honest, there probably is a reasonable point in there had she had the brains to make it rather than that Brainfart of a tweet.

    Namely that Crypto is something that could probably do with some proper oversight and regulation. She may even roll back from that tweet and start making that point.
    The proposal is a "regulatory framework for crypto and digital assets" so that seems to be what she is proposing.
    The targeting "Black men and others" is a bit odd from a UK perspective but perhaps that's normal for the US.
    Interesting it's spun as pro-digital assets, I suspect the last thing creators of digital "assets" want is a regulatory framework.
    Even worse than “black guys are easily scammed by crypto dealers” is her assumption that black men want to become, or are already, bigtime weed-dealers so the wants to make that legal

    You say this is normal for America but it’s nonsense. If a Republican put out this mad tweet - let alone Trump - the Dems would be screaming “racist stereotyping”. You know that’s true. Because it is true. This looks like racist stereotyping of a particularly infantilising and patronising kind

    Kamala might have good intentions but this is utterly misconceived and a potential major gaffe
    It looks insane. But most of American politics looks insane to me.
    "Now you're talking semantics! What if I told you insane was working a 50-hour week for 50 years, at the end of which they tell you to piss off. Ending up in some retirement village, hoping to die rather than suffering the indignity of trying to make it to the toilet on time. Wouldn't you consider that to be insane?"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,097
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I think this insane Kamala Harris racist crypto bailout policy statement COULD be her “deplorables” - whereas the Columbus Day speech was bad but not dire as it was old. This is new

    But yesterday you were saying the Columbus Day speech was Kamala’s deplorables moment.

    *emits a wearied sigh*
    You’re going to be finding a lot of deplorables moments over the next month, aren’t you?

    It's really odd that Leon never focuses on the more shocking stuff that Trump comes out with.
    Yesterday he asked whether Trump is racist and lots of people provided answers as to how Trump is racist, but he never responded to any of them.
    Low IQ Leon probably struggled to comprehend the erudite responses.
    Just as long as you all keep talking about me. Which you do. Endlessly, even when I’m not here
    Have you managed to get the GPS working on your GPS watch yet?
    I’ve been on a plane for << checks smartwatch >> 17 hours

    So not yet
    Where was the massive new airport with no bar, Saudi or Qatar?
    INCHEON

    Yes. I’m not kidding. Nor was I imagining it. I checked with the staff. No dedicated bar in the whole of their new terminal 2. Just an endless series of sterile Gucci and Burberry shops

    A few food outlets. A couple of coffee bars. Nothing else

    There was one hidden away sandwich shop on an upper floor which had a few bottles of Italian beer in the corner of the fridge. No wine no spirits no cocktails - zip

    WTAF?!?!

    The only explanation I can find is that they are trying to force people with long layovers to pay for lounge access so they can drink

    And this is meant to be one of the best airports in the world? It made me nostalgic for Gatwick. Heck it made me nostalgic for Prestwick
    Prestwick was good enough for Elvis.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,604
    edited October 15
    Might I mention that within the header it says Punters agree. Is there any data of correlation between what punters thought and the actual outcome?
    I seem to recall there have been some epic fails.....
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