EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Tusk wanting to remove the right to asylum altogether (temporarily) ought to be a bigger story.
I've been predicting that our political classes will get to this for some years now. Asylum will change from being a right to being an offer which we can choose to make as we see fit. So, we would, under such a regime, have almost certainly allowed large numbers of HK Chinese and Ukrainians to come here. Syrians, Somalis and Yemenis, few, if any, and strictly capped.
I really don't see any alternative but our political classes will try everything else first.
You want an Islamophobic asylum policy?
No, I just think that this is where we will end up. The current system is simply not sustainable from any point of view. It belongs to a different world.
And we will have to be honest that we prefer certain kinds of migration over others. @bondegezou will see it as Islamophobic but voters won’t agree
Its not directly to do with the religion but what we do not want is people who come from a very different culture than our own, patrimonial, misogynistic and homophobic, and that believe in those values and would look to uphold them here.
You write as if our country doesn’t have lots of homegrown misogynistic and homophobic people!
Let's investugate why HK immigrants are so good: law-abiding high skilled don't demand specual treatment or changes to the laws keen to integrate culturally look like us
Now it's entirely possible for Islamic immigrants to ticn all those boxes. @TSE's parents, for example; and similarly the parents of a friend of mine who came from Pakistan in the 70s. But it's also the case that a disproportionate number of immigrants who don't fit tgis description come from countries like Somalia, Syria and Yemen which happen to be Islamic. I'd certainly have no problem closing the door to immugration from these countries. Sure, the vast majority from these places are decent human beings and many will tick some of the boxes above. But how many murderers, terrorists, low level crooks and west-rejecters are we happy to let in alongside them?
We don’t even need to look at the cultural problems (tho I agree entirely on this). We just need to look at the data coming out of Holland and Denmark, where governments are actually crunching the numbers
Immigrants from much of Africa, the Islamic world, South Asia, tend to be a net drain. They literally make the country poorer. Migrants from east Asia, Eastern Europe, etc, are a net benefit
So you simply have to be economically hard nosed and favour migrants from those places. The UK PLC is not a charity seeking to house all the homeless of the world
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Tusk wanting to remove the right to asylum altogether (temporarily) ought to be a bigger story.
I've been predicting that our political classes will get to this for some years now. Asylum will change from being a right to being an offer which we can choose to make as we see fit. So, we would, under such a regime, have almost certainly allowed large numbers of HK Chinese and Ukrainians to come here. Syrians, Somalis and Yemenis, few, if any, and strictly capped.
I really don't see any alternative but our political classes will try everything else first.
You want an Islamophobic asylum policy?
No, I just think that this is where we will end up. The current system is simply not sustainable from any point of view. It belongs to a different world.
And we will have to be honest that we prefer certain kinds of migration over others. @bondegezou will see it as Islamophobic but voters won’t agree
Its not directly to do with the religion but what we do not want is people who come from a very different culture than our own, patrimonial, misogynistic and homophobic, and that believe in those values and would look to uphold them here.
You write as if our country doesn’t have lots of homegrown misogynistic and homophobic people!
It wasn't a tease but I accept that @bondegezou is right. We are a long way from perfect, all of us.
These cultures, which in fairness have a lot in common with our society no more than 100 years ago, still believe that is the way it should be and are strongly opposed to change. People were still being locked up for homosexual relationships in my life time. We are not in a position to be superior about this. But we do try to be better and our laws reflect that. And that is the sort of society I want to live in myself and for my daughters to live in.
I'd also like to say that despite my misgivings I'm going to cast my vote for Kemi and just hope that she grows into the role and learns to think for an extra few seconds before speaking.
This guardian article suggests floating ex Tories agree with you. They want Kemi
I just dunno. They are both highly imperfect. I change by mind hourly (unusual for me)
However I do now see that the Tories MUST have a leader able to deal with reform. Farage is not going away
If Farage is willing to check his ego and listen to someone who knows how to campaign in an FPTP system, Reform might be dangerous, but the history of Ukip and Reform so far tells us he isn't so it isn't.
Er what? Farage built up UKIP so successfully he pressured Cameron into holding an in/out vote and then Farage helped to win that vote. He’s probably the most skilful politician active in the UK today (especially now Alex S has died: RIP)
Farage is clever and cunning and good at populism, he is quite capable at turning reform into a party that takes enough votes it fucks the Tories. Indeed he’s already done that and he’s coming for more
As long as he’s around the Tories will have to strike a deal with him. Simple as that
During the referendum, the Leave campaign despaired of Farage's antics. For Cameron, the problem was not Ukip but Conservative eurosceptics who had been around for decades; remember John Major hearing the sound of white coats flapping.
And now Farage has not even the political nous to make hay of 4 million votes for just five seats, contrasted with the LibDems getting 72 seats from a mere 3.5 million votes.
The risk for Kemi or Jenrick has already been shown in July: in tacking right to meet Reform, they spill seats to the LibDems on their left. That's the danger Farage poses: the siren luring the Tories onto the rocks.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Tusk wanting to remove the right to asylum altogether (temporarily) ought to be a bigger story.
I've been predicting that our political classes will get to this for some years now. Asylum will change from being a right to being an offer which we can choose to make as we see fit. So, we would, under such a regime, have almost certainly allowed large numbers of HK Chinese and Ukrainians to come here. Syrians, Somalis and Yemenis, few, if any, and strictly capped.
I really don't see any alternative but our political classes will try everything else first.
You want an Islamophobic asylum policy?
No, I just think that this is where we will end up. The current system is simply not sustainable from any point of view. It belongs to a different world.
And we will have to be honest that we prefer certain kinds of migration over others. @bondegezou will see it as Islamophobic but voters won’t agree
Its not directly to do with the religion but what we do not want is people who come from a very different culture than our own, patrimonial, misogynistic and homophobic, and that believe in those values and would look to uphold them here.
You write as if our country doesn’t have lots of homegrown misogynistic and homophobic people!
Let's investugate why HK immigrants are so good: law-abiding high skilled don't demand specual treatment or changes to the laws keen to integrate culturally look like us
Now it's entirely possible for Islamic immigrants to ticn all those boxes. @TSE's parents, for example; and similarly the parents of a friend of mine who came from Pakistan in the 70s. But it's also the case that a disproportionate number of immigrants who don't fit tgis description come from countries like Somalia, Syria and Yemen which happen to be Islamic. I'd certainly have no problem closing the door to immugration from these countries. Sure, the vast majority from these places are decent human beings and many will tick some of the boxes above. But how many murderers, terrorists, low level crooks and west-rejecters are we happy to let in alongside them?
And yet the Tory government that ended just a few months ago ramped up immigration from these places, particularly Middle East, Africa and the Subcontinent.
I don't particularly have a problem with it, but maybe the Tories should consider why Big Dog and Sunak did so before going for the full black uniform and deportation to the east meme.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Tusk wanting to remove the right to asylum altogether (temporarily) ought to be a bigger story.
I've been predicting that our political classes will get to this for some years now. Asylum will change from being a right to being an offer which we can choose to make as we see fit. So, we would, under such a regime, have almost certainly allowed large numbers of HK Chinese and Ukrainians to come here. Syrians, Somalis and Yemenis, few, if any, and strictly capped.
I really don't see any alternative but our political classes will try everything else first.
You want an Islamophobic asylum policy?
No, I just think that this is where we will end up. The current system is simply not sustainable from any point of view. It belongs to a different world.
And we will have to be honest that we prefer certain kinds of migration over others. @bondegezou will see it as Islamophobic but voters won’t agree
Its not directly to do with the religion but what we do not want is people who come from a very different culture than our own, patrimonial, misogynistic and homophobic, and that believe in those values and would look to uphold them here.
You write as if our country doesn’t have lots of homegrown misogynistic and homophobic people!
Let's investugate why HK immigrants are so good: law-abiding high skilled don't demand specual treatment or changes to the laws keen to integrate culturally look like us
Now it's entirely possible for Islamic immigrants to ticn all those boxes. @TSE's parents, for example; and similarly the parents of a friend of mine who came from Pakistan in the 70s. But it's also the case that a disproportionate number of immigrants who don't fit tgis description come from countries like Somalia, Syria and Yemen which happen to be Islamic. I'd certainly have no problem closing the door to immugration from these countries. Sure, the vast majority from these places are decent human beings and many will tick some of the boxes above. But how many murderers, terrorists, low level crooks and west-rejecters are we happy to let in alongside them?
And yet the Tory government that ended just a few months ago ramped up immigration from these places, particularly Middle East, Africa and the Subcontinent.
I don't particularly have a problem with it, but maybe the Tories should consider why Big Dog and Sunak did so before going for the full black uniform and deportation to the east meme.
There's no conspiracy. Johnson was an ideological liberal on immigration and always presented himself as such. The people who hate him because of Brexit don't seem to be able to accept this reality.
Johnson was an ideological liberal on immigration and always presented himself as such. The people who hate him because of Brexit don't seem to be able to accept this reality.
The people who can't accept this reality are the people who voted for Brexit because they hate the forrin. They ought to hate BoZo for lying to them.
I hate BoZo because he's a lying shit. Brexit was only one of the things he lied about
Interesting article, with which I agree with more than I disagree. Particularly the firsf and final bullets. I think an important distinction to make is that it's not that young men are voting right out of enthusiasm for some sort of Andrew Tate vision of masculinity, but voting AGAINST a left which continues to demonise them and prioritise women over them.
It's very hard to vote for a candidate who appears to dislike you. And many on the left and in the centre appear by their language to dislike men.
And then they post idiotic things that men better shape up and get with the programme or they will stay single.
There's a certain type of radical feminist or Lib who thinks the answer to women being second-class citizens in society in the past is that it's now the turn of men to have a go.
In the past? Have you looked around you to see how women are treated in today's society?
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
I said before the GE he would end up doing this. A “version” of Rwanda. Because it’s the only possible humane solution to this problem, as Australia shows
He’s just a fucking terrible slow learner
Starmer will never U-Turn to that. They would lose all creditability, and also all the left that got so worked up about Rwanda would be outraged and all Reform-y types would go what a twat. That popularity would go sub -100 (even the illegal immigrants would be against him)...
He wants to join the EU's scheme. That's what he's always wanted.
The price will be joining Schengen, which isn't a terrible idea if the deal works.
The price will be taking whatever proportion of EU migrants is considered 'our share' at any one time. That is not remotely tolerable. And there's no need for it. The boats don't come to Australia any more - they sorted it. Just have the balls and put the necessary legal framework in place to do what they did. Grown up shit that actual countries do.
How many times does it have to be said to you that we don’t have a convenient island we can drag immigrant boats to. Flying them to Africa is not remotely the same thing, not least from a cost perspective (or agreement of such African countries) regardless of the legal framework.
Lawyers are not the only reason “Rwanda” was a stupid idea
And yet the EU is doing precisely that. Reaching agreements with African countries for offshore detention and processing
The alternative is thousands dying in the Med (and the Channel) every year. Is that better?
You’re just not very bright and you couldn’t extrapolate to this inevitable endpoint
Actual Nazis are now being elected in Europe - and they will gain power and be far more brutal than this, unless Democratic politicians grasp the nettle first. Asylum and migration are destroying Europe
Where exactly are "actual Nazis" being elected in Europe?
Austria, the FPO was founded by a Nazi and SS officer.
The FPO are close to being actual Fascists, and they don't mind admitting it. They positively revel in it
Yes and that's what got them the votes, people across Europe are fed up with illegal immigration and the crime and third world attitudes they bring with them.
The whole of the West is being radicalised against the liberal consensus of the postwar era
For a long time the firewall against the Far/Hard right held out, it has now been breached in multiple countries, from Holland to Hungary, Denmark to Austria, and arguably in the USA as well (if you see Trump as hard/far right)
We should be grateful that the "hard right" in Britain comes in the relatively reasonable form of Nigel Farage, who isn't going to start "remigrating" people. Because the alternatives will be a lot nastier than him
But in Britain as elsewhere these issues have to be addressed, by the democrats, before the non-democrats take over
Fundamentally you can't allow 20m+ people from another part of the world arrive to Europe without any plan to integrate them and push out the more third world attitudes they bring with them. These people escape from their third world shit holes but then create the same third world shit hole culture in small ghettoes in Europe, contribute very little and suck on the welfare state of free healthcare and free education for their kids.
One of the reasons people across Europe feel poorer is because illegal and legal migrants from these third world countries contribute significantly less (or nothing) in monetary terms to the state but use significantly more than working age citizens. Every time we import cheap labour from Africa, Bangladesh etc... they bring with them 3 or 4 kids that need schooling, parents that need healthcare all for one working age person who does a minimum wage job.
I actually think it's time to enforce private schooling and private healthcare requirements for economic migrants to the UK. No more free ride on the backs of taxpayers.
I fear this is actually going to end in "remigration". It should never have got this far but the Left - assisted by spineless rightwing parties in places like the UK - has pushed migration to an insane level that no country will forever tolerate. And the only way its impact can be reversed is if these countries start DEPORTING - "remigrating" - people
It is alrready happening. Sweden is offering migrants, settled in Sweden, tens of thousands to go "home"
"Sweden To Pay Immigrants Up To $34,000 To Return"
It is highly possible this will become common across the West, and it will be a tragic failure by all concerned
And my worry as someone who isn't white is that my family gets caught up in all of this shite. One of the reasons I'd want very tough migration rules and very strict integration rules is so that British Asians and Black British families who have been here for two or three generations and who have integrated properly and contribute positively both to the culture and wealth of the nation aren't targeted.
Which is why I call this a tragedy. We should never have reached a stage where nice democratic countries start voting for fascists in despair
I am still hopeful we can avoid this in the UK. Probably the best result for the country would be a reform type party in power. Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation
So we can head off fascism by voting for the far right. What a rum state of affairs.
A key issue is we seem to have a Home Office and associated state apparatus that, even if there was a policy very strict immigration, wouldn't be able to deliver.
It has been crap for decades now.
Net migration is forecast to come down significantly though. The last government ramped it up in response to issues around Brexit and Covid.
Er what? Farage built up UKIP so successfully he pressured Cameron into holding an in/out vote and then Farage helped to win that vote. He’s probably the most skilful politician active in the UK today (especially now Alex S has died: RIP)
Farage is clever and cunning and good at populism, he is quite capable at turning reform into a party that takes enough votes it fucks the Tories. Indeed he’s already done that and he’s coming for more
As long as he’s around the Tories will have to strike a deal with him. Simple as that
Sadly you took a break from rimming Musk long enough to write this garbage.
What the Tories have to do, if they want to govern again, is defeat him.
They didn't do that in 2016 and now they are fucked.
Don't appease him. Don't ape him. Don't join him.
Do what the GOP should have done with Trump 8 years ago
Er what? Farage built up UKIP so successfully he pressured Cameron into holding an in/out vote and then Farage helped to win that vote. He’s probably the most skilful politician active in the UK today (especially now Alex S has died: RIP)
Farage is clever and cunning and good at populism, he is quite capable at turning reform into a party that takes enough votes it fucks the Tories. Indeed he’s already done that and he’s coming for more
As long as he’s around the Tories will have to strike a deal with him. Simple as that
Sadly you took a break from rimming Musk long enough to write this garbage.
What the Tories have to do, if they want to govern again, is defeat him.
They didn't do that in 2016 and now they are fucked.
Don't appease him. Don't ape him. Don't join him.
Do what the GOP should have done with Trump 8 years ago
I think you’re right and I think this is the first stage. First re establish themselves as THE party of the right. Then to widen the offer to the seats that went Lib Dem.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Rwanda was an absurdly expensive stunt. In the first instance Sunak and Cleverly considered it hair-brained and unworkable. It was peak Johnson and Patel, and then Braverman got on board. That's all you need to know. Rwanda was simply ludicrous.
You are more than welcome to criticise this Government on their handling of the small boats but trying to resell the Rwanda pup as anything but a pup is disingenuous.
Russian Su-34 bomber crashed in Ukraine yesterday. Unconfirmed Twitter rumours that a Ukranian F-16 shot it down, but Russian channels are saying it suffered a malfunction and came down.
Why is that a bad thing? Were the reasons for declining the request valid?
It’s the California Costal Commission. Imagine a bunch of rich fuck heads who object to wind farms in sight of rich people’s mansions. And any kind of social housing within sight of the ocean.
Performative idiocy is what they do. In this case they have just torpedoed themselves if it went to court. But it won’t. Because Space Force will classify all launches out of the base as national security. And Federal overrides state.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Tusk wanting to remove the right to asylum altogether (temporarily) ought to be a bigger story.
I've been predicting that our political classes will get to this for some years now. Asylum will change from being a right to being an offer which we can choose to make as we see fit. So, we would, under such a regime, have almost certainly allowed large numbers of HK Chinese and Ukrainians to come here. Syrians, Somalis and Yemenis, few, if any, and strictly capped.
I really don't see any alternative but our political classes will try everything else first.
You want an Islamophobic asylum policy?
No, I just think that this is where we will end up. The current system is simply not sustainable from any point of view. It belongs to a different world.
And we will have to be honest that we prefer certain kinds of migration over others. @bondegezou will see it as Islamophobic but voters won’t agree
Its not directly to do with the religion but what we do not want is people who come from a very different culture than our own, patrimonial, misogynistic and homophobic, and that believe in those values and would look to uphold them here.
You write as if our country doesn’t have lots of homegrown misogynistic and homophobic people!
Let's investugate why HK immigrants are so good: law-abiding high skilled don't demand specual treatment or changes to the laws keen to integrate culturally look like us
Now it's entirely possible for Islamic immigrants to ticn all those boxes. @TSE's parents, for example; and similarly the parents of a friend of mine who came from Pakistan in the 70s. But it's also the case that a disproportionate number of immigrants who don't fit tgis description come from countries like Somalia, Syria and Yemen which happen to be Islamic. I'd certainly have no problem closing the door to immugration from these countries. Sure, the vast majority from these places are decent human beings and many will tick some of the boxes above. But how many murderers, terrorists, low level crooks and west-rejecters are we happy to let in alongside them?
And yet the Tory government that ended just a few months ago ramped up immigration from these places, particularly Middle East, Africa and the Subcontinent.
I don't particularly have a problem with it, but maybe the Tories should consider why Big Dog and Sunak did so before going for the full black uniform and deportation to the east meme.
Yes, which is a large part of why people stopped voting for them even though the opposition was also awful.
Too much zero-sum thinking on the subject, in my opinion. In general, what makes life better for women also makes life better for men -- and vice versa.
There's a parallel example that has impressed me for years. Almost every year since WW II US life expectancy has risen for every major sub group in the US. But not at the same rates, so some time in the 1980s, life expectancy for black women passed life expectancy for white men.
Russian Su-34 bomber crashed in Ukraine yesterday. Unconfirmed Twitter rumours that a Ukranian F-16 shot it down, but Russian channels are saying it suffered a malfunction and came down.
Trump's campaigning is becoming slightly weird. The day before yesterday he was in California. Yesterday he was in Colorado. He has no chance in either of these states. What does he think he is doing?
Fundraising as there are wealthy GOP donors in both states (and as he says he wants a rally in each state so his fans can see him even if not in a swing state) but a bit risky when Obama has just started a marathon campaign stump for Harris in swing states to rally the black vote in particular. In 2016 Hillary also spent too much time at California donor dinners and not enough time in swing states https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzITOw51SfU
Yes, there is definitely a hint of Hillary's mistakes being repeated here. And the fear, justified or not, of being seriously outspent.
From Porter in the Guardian: " Latest figures show she’s spent $57m with Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, to Trump’s $6m, and on Google, owner of YouTube, $31.5m compared with Trump’s $9.3m."
Of course Hillary outspent him too. Didn't help her much.
Hillary wasn't a great candidate, she represented a third consecutive term, and she got shafted at the end by the FBI, but she only just missed. So I don't think you can assume everything about her strategy was wrong. If Kamala Harris had the option to be in the position of the Hillary Clinton campaign but with a fresh random roll of the cosmic dice for the last two weeks then she'd take it.
I think Harris's campaign is vastly superior to Clinton's. She is ruthlessly disciplined, none of that deploarables nonsense, she is skilful at avoiding answers, she has somehow made herself look the change candidate despite being VP for 4 years, she has raised incredible sums of money in only 2 months and is looking to spend it effectively with GOTV operation on a scale even the US has not seen before. She is utterly focused on the swing states, she has now done the interviews, done the debate (and won), done the rallies, its really gone like clockwork.
Her latest, again compared with the Hillary collapse which they tried to cover up and cost her dearly, is releasing her medical records and daring Trump to do the same. She may or may not be a good President but she knows her business and learns fast when she does something less than well.
She had no control on this but would have been better if the one and only debate was nearer the election.
Memories are fading already as to how shit Trump was in that debate.
Yes, as a said a couple of weeks ago my impression is that each time there has been a big event, like her nomination or the debate or her interviews, she has taken a step forward but the general drift is towards Trump and that advantage soon fades back to the original position which is both within the margin of error and incredibly close in the key states. Some, perhaps most, of that drift, is because being an incumbent is incredibly tricky after the last few years.
Its worrying. This is still a coin toss and the opportunities for further boosts are quite limited. The best hope is that Trump harms himself but its hard to imagine how much more obnoxious and outrageous he can get.
There is no way this gets decided on November 5th. Given the staggering incompetence of the American counting system it may be a couple of weeks before we know who has won. And that's assuming the courts don't get heavily involved.
If the polls are out 3 pts but the other way this time Harris will have a clear win. That's my hope and (still) my expectation.
If they are it will be a result of her GOTV and registration operations which have been immense. I very much hope you are right but I am less confident than I was a week ago.
Biden cancelled a defence support meeting in aid of Ukraine due to Hurricane Milton, and has scrapped any plan to reschedule. Meanwhile North Korean troops are repeatedly being prepared to guard Russia's borders so that more Russian troops can be sent to the Ukrainian front lines.
Harris has announced she will have a Republican in her cabinet.
Liz Cheney?
Maybe Mitt Romney. The only GOP senator who voted to impeach Trump. He's getting on a bit but it might give the Democrats another chance in the Senate too.
Here’s a bit of advice to help maintain your sanity over the next few weeks until Election Day: Just ignore the polls. Unless you’re a campaign professional or a gambler, you’re probably looking at them for the same reason the rest of us are: to know who’ll win. Or at least to feel like you know who’ll win. But they just can’t tell you that.
In a month or so, we’ll (hopefully) know which methodological choice was right. But until then, if you’re not a professional pollster, do you really need to be spending the fleeting minutes you have on this earth thinking about weighting on recalled votes? Call people you care about and tell them you love them. Take 10 deep breaths and watch where your mind wanders. Do literally anything else.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
I said before the GE he would end up doing this. A “version” of Rwanda. Because it’s the only possible humane solution to this problem, as Australia shows
He’s just a fucking terrible slow learner
Starmer will never U-Turn to that. They would lose all creditability, and also all the left that got so worked up about Rwanda would be outraged and all Reform-y types would go what a twat. That popularity would go sub -100 (even the illegal immigrants would be against him)...
He wants to join the EU's scheme. That's what he's always wanted.
The price will be joining Schengen, which isn't a terrible idea if the deal works.
The price will be taking whatever proportion of EU migrants is considered 'our share' at any one time. That is not remotely tolerable. And there's no need for it. The boats don't come to Australia any more - they sorted it. Just have the balls and put the necessary legal framework in place to do what they did. Grown up shit that actual countries do.
How many times does it have to be said to you that we don’t have a convenient island we can drag immigrant boats to. Flying them to Africa is not remotely the same thing, not least from a cost perspective (or agreement of such African countries) regardless of the legal framework.
Lawyers are not the only reason “Rwanda” was a stupid idea
And yet the EU is doing precisely that. Reaching agreements with African countries for offshore detention and processing
The alternative is thousands dying in the Med (and the Channel) every year. Is that better?
You’re just not very bright and you couldn’t extrapolate to this inevitable endpoint
Actual Nazis are now being elected in Europe - and they will gain power and be far more brutal than this, unless Democratic politicians grasp the nettle first. Asylum and migration are destroying Europe
Where exactly are "actual Nazis" being elected in Europe?
Austria, the FPO was founded by a Nazi and SS officer.
The FPO are close to being actual Fascists, and they don't mind admitting it. They positively revel in it
Yes and that's what got them the votes, people across Europe are fed up with illegal immigration and the crime and third world attitudes they bring with them.
The whole of the West is being radicalised against the liberal consensus of the postwar era
For a long time the firewall against the Far/Hard right held out, it has now been breached in multiple countries, from Holland to Hungary, Denmark to Austria, and arguably in the USA as well (if you see Trump as hard/far right)
We should be grateful that the "hard right" in Britain comes in the relatively reasonable form of Nigel Farage, who isn't going to start "remigrating" people. Because the alternatives will be a lot nastier than him
But in Britain as elsewhere these issues have to be addressed, by the democrats, before the non-democrats take over
Fundamentally you can't allow 20m+ people from another part of the world arrive to Europe without any plan to integrate them and push out the more third world attitudes they bring with them. These people escape from their third world shit holes but then create the same third world shit hole culture in small ghettoes in Europe, contribute very little and suck on the welfare state of free healthcare and free education for their kids.
One of the reasons people across Europe feel poorer is because illegal and legal migrants from these third world countries contribute significantly less (or nothing) in monetary terms to the state but use significantly more than working age citizens. Every time we import cheap labour from Africa, Bangladesh etc... they bring with them 3 or 4 kids that need schooling, parents that need healthcare all for one working age person who does a minimum wage job.
I actually think it's time to enforce private schooling and private healthcare requirements for economic migrants to the UK. No more free ride on the backs of taxpayers.
I fear this is actually going to end in "remigration". It should never have got this far but the Left - assisted by spineless rightwing parties in places like the UK - has pushed migration to an insane level that no country will forever tolerate. And the only way its impact can be reversed is if these countries start DEPORTING - "remigrating" - people
It is alrready happening. Sweden is offering migrants, settled in Sweden, tens of thousands to go "home"
"Sweden To Pay Immigrants Up To $34,000 To Return"
It is highly possible this will become common across the West, and it will be a tragic failure by all concerned
And my worry as someone who isn't white is that my family gets caught up in all of this shite. One of the reasons I'd want very tough migration rules and very strict integration rules is so that British Asians and Black British families who have been here for two or three generations and who have integrated properly and contribute positively both to the culture and wealth of the nation aren't targeted.
We need to discriminate much more when it comes to integration rules. At the moment, a British-descended New Zealand doctor who has married an Englishwoman and an illiterate Somali peasant granted asylum both need to wait five years to get settled. This is obviously ridiculous. The former will almost certainly assimilate far quicker than the latter, but political correctness refuses to let us draft rules to reflect this staggering obvious fact.
Though it isn't true. Both Kiwi and the Somali have to pay for and pass the life in UK test, and one will clearly find both the language and questions easier.
I don't think the Kiwi should have to pass the life in the UK test as it is so similar to life in NZ. Political correctness has forced him to waste his money.
If indeed the Somali can learn English (or Welsh) and learn both to read and to know the content of the test, have they really not assimilated?
Anyway, that test was a load of Blairite bollocks from a government desperate pretend it was acting tough while rubbing the Right's nose in mass immigration. Just ticking the right box showing you know how to claim benefits or when the King's birthday is tells you nothing about how committed to this country somebody is or how beneficial their presence is.
Having it in a joke language like Welsh is ridiculous too.
Biden cancelled a defence support meeting in aid of Ukraine due to Hurricane Milton, and has scrapped any plan to reschedule. Meanwhile North Korean troops are repeatedly being prepared to guard Russia's borders so that more Russian troops can be sent to the Ukrainian front lines.
Biden has seemingly completely given up.
LOL. N Korean troops are guarding the Russian borders? I'm sure they'll be super secure then.
How many will defect? Even Russia is better than living in N Korea.
Here’s a bit of advice to help maintain your sanity over the next few weeks until Election Day: Just ignore the polls. Unless you’re a campaign professional or a gambler, you’re probably looking at them for the same reason the rest of us are: to know who’ll win. Or at least to feel like you know who’ll win. But they just can’t tell you that.
In a month or so, we’ll (hopefully) know which methodological choice was right. But until then, if you’re not a professional pollster, do you really need to be spending the fleeting minutes you have on this earth thinking about weighting on recalled votes? Call people you care about and tell them you love them. Take 10 deep breaths and watch where your mind wanders. Do literally anything else.
I'm a gambler who gambles on politics. The only reason why I wouldn't obsess on polls is if they don't give a sufficiently clear picture. If I find something else, I'll focus on that. Much as I love my PB guys, gals and enby pals, I am here for da money.
(also to write fine articles to educate and entertain you )
Science fiction writer William Tenn wrote a satire entitled "The Masculinist Revolt". In the introduction to his "Wooden Star" collection, where you can find the story, he describes the result: 'I have lost one agent and several friends over this story. A woman I had up to then respected told me, "This castration-nightmare is for a psychiatrist, not an editor": and a male friend of many years put the story down with tears in his eyes, saying, "You've written the manifesto. The statement of principles for all the guys in the world."'
(Tenn says he intended a gentle satire, but after those reactions, he would say that, wouldn't he?)
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
I said before the GE he would end up doing this. A “version” of Rwanda. Because it’s the only possible humane solution to this problem, as Australia shows
He’s just a fucking terrible slow learner
Starmer will never U-Turn to that. They would lose all creditability, and also all the left that got so worked up about Rwanda would be outraged and all Reform-y types would go what a twat. That popularity would go sub -100 (even the illegal immigrants would be against him)...
He wants to join the EU's scheme. That's what he's always wanted.
The price will be joining Schengen, which isn't a terrible idea if the deal works.
The price will be taking whatever proportion of EU migrants is considered 'our share' at any one time. That is not remotely tolerable. And there's no need for it. The boats don't come to Australia any more - they sorted it. Just have the balls and put the necessary legal framework in place to do what they did. Grown up shit that actual countries do.
How many times does it have to be said to you that we don’t have a convenient island we can drag immigrant boats to. Flying them to Africa is not remotely the same thing, not least from a cost perspective (or agreement of such African countries) regardless of the legal framework.
Lawyers are not the only reason “Rwanda” was a stupid idea
And yet the EU is doing precisely that. Reaching agreements with African countries for offshore detention and processing
The alternative is thousands dying in the Med (and the Channel) every year. Is that better?
You’re just not very bright and you couldn’t extrapolate to this inevitable endpoint
Actual Nazis are now being elected in Europe - and they will gain power and be far more brutal than this, unless Democratic politicians grasp the nettle first. Asylum and migration are destroying Europe
Where exactly are "actual Nazis" being elected in Europe?
Austria, the FPO was founded by a Nazi and SS officer.
The FPO are close to being actual Fascists, and they don't mind admitting it. They positively revel in it
Yes and that's what got them the votes, people across Europe are fed up with illegal immigration and the crime and third world attitudes they bring with them.
The whole of the West is being radicalised against the liberal consensus of the postwar era
For a long time the firewall against the Far/Hard right held out, it has now been breached in multiple countries, from Holland to Hungary, Denmark to Austria, and arguably in the USA as well (if you see Trump as hard/far right)
We should be grateful that the "hard right" in Britain comes in the relatively reasonable form of Nigel Farage, who isn't going to start "remigrating" people. Because the alternatives will be a lot nastier than him
But in Britain as elsewhere these issues have to be addressed, by the democrats, before the non-democrats take over
Fundamentally you can't allow 20m+ people from another part of the world arrive to Europe without any plan to integrate them and push out the more third world attitudes they bring with them. These people escape from their third world shit holes but then create the same third world shit hole culture in small ghettoes in Europe, contribute very little and suck on the welfare state of free healthcare and free education for their kids.
One of the reasons people across Europe feel poorer is because illegal and legal migrants from these third world countries contribute significantly less (or nothing) in monetary terms to the state but use significantly more than working age citizens. Every time we import cheap labour from Africa, Bangladesh etc... they bring with them 3 or 4 kids that need schooling, parents that need healthcare all for one working age person who does a minimum wage job.
I actually think it's time to enforce private schooling and private healthcare requirements for economic migrants to the UK. No more free ride on the backs of taxpayers.
I fear this is actually going to end in "remigration". It should never have got this far but the Left - assisted by spineless rightwing parties in places like the UK - has pushed migration to an insane level that no country will forever tolerate. And the only way its impact can be reversed is if these countries start DEPORTING - "remigrating" - people
It is alrready happening. Sweden is offering migrants, settled in Sweden, tens of thousands to go "home"
"Sweden To Pay Immigrants Up To $34,000 To Return"
It is highly possible this will become common across the West, and it will be a tragic failure by all concerned
And my worry as someone who isn't white is that my family gets caught up in all of this shite. One of the reasons I'd want very tough migration rules and very strict integration rules is so that British Asians and Black British families who have been here for two or three generations and who have integrated properly and contribute positively both to the culture and wealth of the nation aren't targeted.
Which is why I call this a tragedy. We should never have reached a stage where nice democratic countries start voting for fascists in despair
I am still hopeful we can avoid this in the UK. Probably the best result for the country would be a reform type party in power. Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation
"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Rwanda was an absurdly expensive stunt. In the first instance Sunak and Cleverly considered it hair-brained and unworkable. It was peak Johnson and Patel, and then Braverman got on board. That's all you need to know. Rwanda was simply ludicrous.
You are more than welcome to criticise this Government on their handling of the small boats but trying to resell the Rwanda pup as anything but a pup is disingenuous.
Scrapping Rwanda is one Starmer policy with positive polling. 44% approve vs 38% disapprove.
Biden cancelled a defence support meeting in aid of Ukraine due to Hurricane Milton, and has scrapped any plan to reschedule. Meanwhile North Korean troops are repeatedly being prepared to guard Russia's borders so that more Russian troops can be sent to the Ukrainian front lines.
Biden has seemingly completely given up.
LOL. N Korean troops are guarding the Russian borders? I'm sure they'll be super secure then.
How many will defect? Even Russia is better than living in N Korea.
Most won't defect because they will have family in North Korea and they'd care about what would happen to them if they did.
But, anyway, we can laugh about it, but it could well free up many more thousands of Russian troops to assault the front lines. Russia keeps on taking all these escalatory steps and the Western response is really weak.
China is watching and the lesson being learnt is that the West is weak, easily intimidated, and will abandon a democracy. It's incredibly dangerous and the repercussions for the rest of the century are momentous.
@maxh A valuable discussion starter on a very important issue. Thank you for tackling it. I haven't yet read the header but wanted to post this in case the thread changes.
Too much zero-sum thinking on the subject, in my opinion. In general, what makes life better for women also makes life better for men -- and vice versa.
There's a parallel example that has impressed me for years. Almost every year since WW II US life expectancy has risen for every major sub group in the US. But not at the same rates, so some time in the 1980s, life expectancy for black women passed life expectancy for white men.
In the 1970s there was a Mens Liberation movement that believed that traditional gender roles oppressed men as well as women. A very different philosophy to current Mens Rights movements.
Sadly in the USA in particular life expectancy is a real problem, and healthy life expectancy even more so. These graphs illustrate what has been happening:
Trump's campaigning is becoming slightly weird. The day before yesterday he was in California. Yesterday he was in Colorado. He has no chance in either of these states. What does he think he is doing?
Fundraising as there are wealthy GOP donors in both states (and as he says he wants a rally in each state so his fans can see him even if not in a swing state) but a bit risky when Obama has just started a marathon campaign stump for Harris in swing states to rally the black vote in particular. In 2016 Hillary also spent too much time at California donor dinners and not enough time in swing states https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzITOw51SfU
Yes, there is definitely a hint of Hillary's mistakes being repeated here. And the fear, justified or not, of being seriously outspent.
From Porter in the Guardian: " Latest figures show she’s spent $57m with Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, to Trump’s $6m, and on Google, owner of YouTube, $31.5m compared with Trump’s $9.3m."
Of course Hillary outspent him too. Didn't help her much.
Hillary wasn't a great candidate, she represented a third consecutive term, and she got shafted at the end by the FBI, but she only just missed. So I don't think you can assume everything about her strategy was wrong. If Kamala Harris had the option to be in the position of the Hillary Clinton campaign but with a fresh random roll of the cosmic dice for the last two weeks then she'd take it.
I think Harris's campaign is vastly superior to Clinton's. She is ruthlessly disciplined, none of that deploarables nonsense, she is skilful at avoiding answers, she has somehow made herself look the change candidate despite being VP for 4 years, she has raised incredible sums of money in only 2 months and is looking to spend it effectively with GOTV operation on a scale even the US has not seen before. She is utterly focused on the swing states, she has now done the interviews, done the debate (and won), done the rallies, its really gone like clockwork.
Her latest, again compared with the Hillary collapse which they tried to cover up and cost her dearly, is releasing her medical records and daring Trump to do the same. She may or may not be a good President but she knows her business and learns fast when she does something less than well.
She had no control on this but would have been better if the one and only debate was nearer the election.
Memories are fading already as to how shit Trump was in that debate.
Yes, as a said a couple of weeks ago my impression is that each time there has been a big event, like her nomination or the debate or her interviews, she has taken a step forward but the general drift is towards Trump and that advantage soon fades back to the original position which is both within the margin of error and incredibly close in the key states. Some, perhaps most, of that drift, is because being an incumbent is incredibly tricky after the last few years.
Its worrying. This is still a coin toss and the opportunities for further boosts are quite limited. The best hope is that Trump harms himself but its hard to imagine how much more obnoxious and outrageous he can get.
There is no way this gets decided on November 5th. Given the staggering incompetence of the American counting system it may be a couple of weeks before we know who has won. And that's assuming the courts don't get heavily involved.
If the polls are out 3 pts but the other way this time Harris will have a clear win. That's my hope and (still) my expectation.
If they are it will be a result of her GOTV and registration operations which have been immense. I very much hope you are right but I am less confident than I was a week ago.
Well tbh I've gone from quietly confident to cautiously optimistic. That's down a notch on my scale.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Rwanda was an absurdly expensive stunt. In the first instance Sunak and Cleverly considered it hair-brained and unworkable. It was peak Johnson and Patel, and then Braverman got on board. That's all you need to know. Rwanda was simply ludicrous.
You are more than welcome to criticise this Government on their handling of the small boats but trying to resell the Rwanda pup as anything but a pup is disingenuous.
Scrapping Rwanda is one Starmer policy with positive polling. 44% approve vs 38% disapprove.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Rwanda was an absurdly expensive stunt. In the first instance Sunak and Cleverly considered it hair-brained and unworkable. It was peak Johnson and Patel, and then Braverman got on board. That's all you need to know. Rwanda was simply ludicrous.
You are more than welcome to criticise this Government on their handling of the small boats but trying to resell the Rwanda pup as anything but a pup is disingenuous.
Scrapping Rwanda is one Starmer policy with positive polling. 44% approve vs 38% disapprove.
The UK is simply moving into line with other Western countries in having a populist right party rivalling the traditional right party. Simply shouting at the supporters of the former isn’t going to win them back.
“"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
Trump's campaigning is becoming slightly weird. The day before yesterday he was in California. Yesterday he was in Colorado. He has no chance in either of these states. What does he think he is doing?
Fundraising as there are wealthy GOP donors in both states (and as he says he wants a rally in each state so his fans can see him even if not in a swing state) but a bit risky when Obama has just started a marathon campaign stump for Harris in swing states to rally the black vote in particular. In 2016 Hillary also spent too much time at California donor dinners and not enough time in swing states https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzITOw51SfU
Yes, there is definitely a hint of Hillary's mistakes being repeated here. And the fear, justified or not, of being seriously outspent.
From Porter in the Guardian: " Latest figures show she’s spent $57m with Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, to Trump’s $6m, and on Google, owner of YouTube, $31.5m compared with Trump’s $9.3m."
Of course Hillary outspent him too. Didn't help her much.
Hillary wasn't a great candidate, she represented a third consecutive term, and she got shafted at the end by the FBI, but she only just missed. So I don't think you can assume everything about her strategy was wrong. If Kamala Harris had the option to be in the position of the Hillary Clinton campaign but with a fresh random roll of the cosmic dice for the last two weeks then she'd take it.
I think Harris's campaign is vastly superior to Clinton's. She is ruthlessly disciplined, none of that deploarables nonsense, she is skilful at avoiding answers, she has somehow made herself look the change candidate despite being VP for 4 years, she has raised incredible sums of money in only 2 months and is looking to spend it effectively with GOTV operation on a scale even the US has not seen before. She is utterly focused on the swing states, she has now done the interviews, done the debate (and won), done the rallies, its really gone like clockwork.
Her latest, again compared with the Hillary collapse which they tried to cover up and cost her dearly, is releasing her medical records and daring Trump to do the same. She may or may not be a good President but she knows her business and learns fast when she does something less than well.
She had no control on this but would have been better if the one and only debate was nearer the election.
Memories are fading already as to how shit Trump was in that debate.
Yes, as a said a couple of weeks ago my impression is that each time there has been a big event, like her nomination or the debate or her interviews, she has taken a step forward but the general drift is towards Trump and that advantage soon fades back to the original position which is both within the margin of error and incredibly close in the key states. Some, perhaps most, of that drift, is because being an incumbent is incredibly tricky after the last few years.
Its worrying. This is still a coin toss and the opportunities for further boosts are quite limited. The best hope is that Trump harms himself but its hard to imagine how much more obnoxious and outrageous he can get.
There is no way this gets decided on November 5th. Given the staggering incompetence of the American counting system it may be a couple of weeks before we know who has won. And that's assuming the courts don't get heavily involved.
If the polls are out 3 pts but the other way this time Harris will have a clear win. That's my hope and (still) my expectation.
If they are it will be a result of her GOTV and registration operations which have been immense. I very much hope you are right but I am less confident than I was a week ago.
Well tbh I've gone from quietly confident to cautiously optimistic. That's down a notch on my scale.
My view is that Trump is more likely than not to win.
His appeal to peoples’ darker instincts (eg the Aurora speech), is unfortunately a seductive one.
Trump's campaigning is becoming slightly weird. The day before yesterday he was in California. Yesterday he was in Colorado. He has no chance in either of these states. What does he think he is doing?
Fundraising as there are wealthy GOP donors in both states (and as he says he wants a rally in each state so his fans can see him even if not in a swing state) but a bit risky when Obama has just started a marathon campaign stump for Harris in swing states to rally the black vote in particular. In 2016 Hillary also spent too much time at California donor dinners and not enough time in swing states https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzITOw51SfU
Yes, there is definitely a hint of Hillary's mistakes being repeated here. And the fear, justified or not, of being seriously outspent.
From Porter in the Guardian: " Latest figures show she’s spent $57m with Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, to Trump’s $6m, and on Google, owner of YouTube, $31.5m compared with Trump’s $9.3m."
Of course Hillary outspent him too. Didn't help her much.
Hillary wasn't a great candidate, she represented a third consecutive term, and she got shafted at the end by the FBI, but she only just missed. So I don't think you can assume everything about her strategy was wrong. If Kamala Harris had the option to be in the position of the Hillary Clinton campaign but with a fresh random roll of the cosmic dice for the last two weeks then she'd take it.
I think Harris's campaign is vastly superior to Clinton's. She is ruthlessly disciplined, none of that deploarables nonsense, she is skilful at avoiding answers, she has somehow made herself look the change candidate despite being VP for 4 years, she has raised incredible sums of money in only 2 months and is looking to spend it effectively with GOTV operation on a scale even the US has not seen before. She is utterly focused on the swing states, she has now done the interviews, done the debate (and won), done the rallies, its really gone like clockwork.
Her latest, again compared with the Hillary collapse which they tried to cover up and cost her dearly, is releasing her medical records and daring Trump to do the same. She may or may not be a good President but she knows her business and learns fast when she does something less than well.
She had no control on this but would have been better if the one and only debate was nearer the election.
Memories are fading already as to how shit Trump was in that debate.
Yes, as a said a couple of weeks ago my impression is that each time there has been a big event, like her nomination or the debate or her interviews, she has taken a step forward but the general drift is towards Trump and that advantage soon fades back to the original position which is both within the margin of error and incredibly close in the key states. Some, perhaps most, of that drift, is because being an incumbent is incredibly tricky after the last few years.
Its worrying. This is still a coin toss and the opportunities for further boosts are quite limited. The best hope is that Trump harms himself but its hard to imagine how much more obnoxious and outrageous he can get.
There is no way this gets decided on November 5th. Given the staggering incompetence of the American counting system it may be a couple of weeks before we know who has won. And that's assuming the courts don't get heavily involved.
If the polls are out 3 pts but the other way this time Harris will have a clear win. That's my hope and (still) my expectation.
If they are it will be a result of her GOTV and registration operations which have been immense. I very much hope you are right but I am less confident than I was a week ago.
Well tbh I've gone from quietly confident to cautiously optimistic. That's down a notch on my scale.
My view is that Trump is more likely than not to win.
His appeal to peoples’ darker instincts (eg the Aurora speech), is unfortunately a seductive one.
Anger and hate drive a lot of voters.
"Fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering!"
Trump's campaigning is becoming slightly weird. The day before yesterday he was in California. Yesterday he was in Colorado. He has no chance in either of these states. What does he think he is doing?
Fundraising as there are wealthy GOP donors in both states (and as he says he wants a rally in each state so his fans can see him even if not in a swing state) but a bit risky when Obama has just started a marathon campaign stump for Harris in swing states to rally the black vote in particular. In 2016 Hillary also spent too much time at California donor dinners and not enough time in swing states https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzITOw51SfU
Yes, there is definitely a hint of Hillary's mistakes being repeated here. And the fear, justified or not, of being seriously outspent.
From Porter in the Guardian: " Latest figures show she’s spent $57m with Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, to Trump’s $6m, and on Google, owner of YouTube, $31.5m compared with Trump’s $9.3m."
Of course Hillary outspent him too. Didn't help her much.
Hillary wasn't a great candidate, she represented a third consecutive term, and she got shafted at the end by the FBI, but she only just missed. So I don't think you can assume everything about her strategy was wrong. If Kamala Harris had the option to be in the position of the Hillary Clinton campaign but with a fresh random roll of the cosmic dice for the last two weeks then she'd take it.
I think Harris's campaign is vastly superior to Clinton's. She is ruthlessly disciplined, none of that deploarables nonsense, she is skilful at avoiding answers, she has somehow made herself look the change candidate despite being VP for 4 years, she has raised incredible sums of money in only 2 months and is looking to spend it effectively with GOTV operation on a scale even the US has not seen before. She is utterly focused on the swing states, she has now done the interviews, done the debate (and won), done the rallies, its really gone like clockwork.
Her latest, again compared with the Hillary collapse which they tried to cover up and cost her dearly, is releasing her medical records and daring Trump to do the same. She may or may not be a good President but she knows her business and learns fast when she does something less than well.
She had no control on this but would have been better if the one and only debate was nearer the election.
Memories are fading already as to how shit Trump was in that debate.
Yes, as a said a couple of weeks ago my impression is that each time there has been a big event, like her nomination or the debate or her interviews, she has taken a step forward but the general drift is towards Trump and that advantage soon fades back to the original position which is both within the margin of error and incredibly close in the key states. Some, perhaps most, of that drift, is because being an incumbent is incredibly tricky after the last few years.
Its worrying. This is still a coin toss and the opportunities for further boosts are quite limited. The best hope is that Trump harms himself but its hard to imagine how much more obnoxious and outrageous he can get.
There is no way this gets decided on November 5th. Given the staggering incompetence of the American counting system it may be a couple of weeks before we know who has won. And that's assuming the courts don't get heavily involved.
If the polls are out 3 pts but the other way this time Harris will have a clear win. That's my hope and (still) my expectation.
If they are it will be a result of her GOTV and registration operations which have been immense. I very much hope you are right but I am less confident than I was a week ago.
Well tbh I've gone from quietly confident to cautiously optimistic. That's down a notch on my scale.
My view is that Trump is more likely than not to win.
His appeal to peoples’ darker instincts (eg the Aurora speech), is unfortunately a seductive one.
Anger and hate drive a lot of voters.
It's more than that. He gives easy answers to complex problems that can only be fixed by complex answers. Easy answers are appealing.
Even more so, when you can make all of, or part of, that simple answer the Other. In this case, immigrants.
More good news for offshore jurisdictions, mostly Gibraltar and IOM for the online casinos isn’t it?
The question is whether General Betting Duty will be increased - it's currently 15% of bookmaker profits off-course (on-course betting is part of the horserace betting levy (HBL), which is charged on the gross profits of all betting on British horseracing (whether made on-course, in betting shops, or online). Receipts are collected by the horserace betting levy board (HBLB) – a UK statutory body.entirely tax free.
The other betting/gaming levies were expected to raise £3.6 billion in 2023/2024.
Lottery duty – charged on taking a chance or ticket in the UK National Lottery. The duty liable is a fixed proportion of total ticket sales. All lawful lotteries are exempt from the duty except the National Lottery. It is also payable on scratch cards and UK sales of Euromillions. Machine games duty (MGD) – charged on the playing of machine games that pay out cash prizes. These include slot, fruit and quiz machines, as well as fixed-odds betting terminals. The duty paid depends on how much it costs to play a game, and the size of the potential prize. MGD is not payable on machine games that offer only non-cash prizes or where the cost of playing is greater than any cash prize. It was introduced in early 2013 and replaced the amusement machine licence duty (AMLD). General betting duty (GBD) – charged on bookmakers’ profits for ‘general bets’, which include sports betting and bets on horse or dog racing, and their profits for spread bets, but exclude on-course betting. The duty paid depends on the type of bet and where it is made. Remote gaming duty (RGD) – charged on gaming provider profits from remote gaming (for instance, games played online). This includes the profits from any ‘free plays’ the provider offers. ‘Free plays’ are any offers to gamble at zero or reduced rates, and include free games, introductory bonuses or matched deposits. Gaming duty – charged on the gross gaming profits of UK-based casinos. The duty paid follows a banded structure, so more profitable casinos pay proportionately higher rates. Bingo duty – charged at a fixed rate on the gross profits of the bingo promoter. All bingo games played in the UK are liable to the duty, except domestic bingo, small-scale bingo, non-profit bingo and bingo played on machines covered by MGD, which are all exempt. Pool betting duty (PBD) – charged on bookmakers’ profits for bets where winners have a share in a pool of a stake of money.
“"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
The proportion economically inactive hasn't changed much in the last 15 years despite what is generally believed. As a number it has increased but so has the sizze of the overall workforce.
The real problem, as we all know, is productivity and the truth is it is easier and cheaper to hire an extra pair of hands to do things the same old way rather than look at ways by which the process can be improved or streamlined jusing technology (perhaps).
“"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
The proportion economically inactive hasn't changed much in the last 15 years despite what is generally believed. As a number it has increased but so has the sizze of the overall workforce.
The real problem, as we all know, is productivity and the truth is it is easier and cheaper to hire an extra pair of hands to do things the same old way rather than look at ways by which the process can be improved or streamlined jusing technology (perhaps).
That's a bit of an over simplification - it was successfully being reduced but has grown strong since Covid. No argument productivity is the key, but unsurprising that has stagnated when you can throw cheap imported labour at a task rather than build a better process.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Rwanda was an absurdly expensive stunt. In the first instance Sunak and Cleverly considered it hair-brained and unworkable. It was peak Johnson and Patel, and then Braverman got on board. That's all you need to know. Rwanda was simply ludicrous.
You are more than welcome to criticise this Government on their handling of the small boats but trying to resell the Rwanda pup as anything but a pup is disingenuous.
Scrapping Rwanda is one Starmer policy with positive polling. 44% approve vs 38% disapprove.
But he has to deliver an alternative, or it won't stay that way for long.
How much do you want to bet that immigration will be down this year from 2023?
Well they’re policing the border rigorously today.
After a day of driving, having left just after posting about the local hunters out shooting, I arrive at Calais Eurotunnel to two unnerving experiences.
The first that I had written Dauphinoise instead of dauphinois for that most masculine of potato dishes in a post about masculinity.
The second that after a suspicious series of questions by the British passport man about where I’d come from and why I’m travelling alone, I was taken aside for a security check and had to unpack the whole boot and lift the spare wheel cover, presumably just in case I was hiding an asylum seeker. Or a haul of drugs.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Rwanda was an absurdly expensive stunt. In the first instance Sunak and Cleverly considered it hair-brained and unworkable. It was peak Johnson and Patel, and then Braverman got on board. That's all you need to know. Rwanda was simply ludicrous.
You are more than welcome to criticise this Government on their handling of the small boats but trying to resell the Rwanda pup as anything but a pup is disingenuous.
Scrapping Rwanda is one Starmer policy with positive polling. 44% approve vs 38% disapprove.
Trump's campaigning is becoming slightly weird. The day before yesterday he was in California. Yesterday he was in Colorado. He has no chance in either of these states. What does he think he is doing?
Fundraising as there are wealthy GOP donors in both states (and as he says he wants a rally in each state so his fans can see him even if not in a swing state) but a bit risky when Obama has just started a marathon campaign stump for Harris in swing states to rally the black vote in particular. In 2016 Hillary also spent too much time at California donor dinners and not enough time in swing states https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzITOw51SfU
Yes, there is definitely a hint of Hillary's mistakes being repeated here. And the fear, justified or not, of being seriously outspent.
From Porter in the Guardian: " Latest figures show she’s spent $57m with Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, to Trump’s $6m, and on Google, owner of YouTube, $31.5m compared with Trump’s $9.3m."
Of course Hillary outspent him too. Didn't help her much.
Hillary wasn't a great candidate, she represented a third consecutive term, and she got shafted at the end by the FBI, but she only just missed. So I don't think you can assume everything about her strategy was wrong. If Kamala Harris had the option to be in the position of the Hillary Clinton campaign but with a fresh random roll of the cosmic dice for the last two weeks then she'd take it.
I think Harris's campaign is vastly superior to Clinton's. She is ruthlessly disciplined, none of that deploarables nonsense, she is skilful at avoiding answers, she has somehow made herself look the change candidate despite being VP for 4 years, she has raised incredible sums of money in only 2 months and is looking to spend it effectively with GOTV operation on a scale even the US has not seen before. She is utterly focused on the swing states, she has now done the interviews, done the debate (and won), done the rallies, its really gone like clockwork.
Her latest, again compared with the Hillary collapse which they tried to cover up and cost her dearly, is releasing her medical records and daring Trump to do the same. She may or may not be a good President but she knows her business and learns fast when she does something less than well.
She had no control on this but would have been better if the one and only debate was nearer the election.
Memories are fading already as to how shit Trump was in that debate.
Yes, as a said a couple of weeks ago my impression is that each time there has been a big event, like her nomination or the debate or her interviews, she has taken a step forward but the general drift is towards Trump and that advantage soon fades back to the original position which is both within the margin of error and incredibly close in the key states. Some, perhaps most, of that drift, is because being an incumbent is incredibly tricky after the last few years.
Its worrying. This is still a coin toss and the opportunities for further boosts are quite limited. The best hope is that Trump harms himself but its hard to imagine how much more obnoxious and outrageous he can get.
There is no way this gets decided on November 5th. Given the staggering incompetence of the American counting system it may be a couple of weeks before we know who has won. And that's assuming the courts don't get heavily involved.
If the polls are out 3 pts but the other way this time Harris will have a clear win. That's my hope and (still) my expectation.
If they are it will be a result of her GOTV and registration operations which have been immense. I very much hope you are right but I am less confident than I was a week ago.
Well tbh I've gone from quietly confident to cautiously optimistic. That's down a notch on my scale.
My view is that Trump is more likely than not to win.
His appeal to peoples’ darker instincts (eg the Aurora speech), is unfortunately a seductive one.
Anger and hate drive a lot of voters.
Market's with you. 1.82. I agree 100% this is about whether the hate fear anger ignorance stupidity wagon prevails. I think it comes up short but the polls are closer than I'd like. The most important election ever and we can't call it. Tense is not the word.
“"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
The proportion economically inactive hasn't changed much in the last 15 years despite what is generally believed. As a number it has increased but so has the sizze of the overall workforce.
The real problem, as we all know, is productivity and the truth is it is easier and cheaper to hire an extra pair of hands to do things the same old way rather than look at ways by which the process can be improved or streamlined jusing technology (perhaps).
Aren't the two main drags on productivity in the UK poor infrastructure and training?
Neither can easily be put right quickly, particularly infrastructure.
Trump's campaigning is becoming slightly weird. The day before yesterday he was in California. Yesterday he was in Colorado. He has no chance in either of these states. What does he think he is doing?
Fundraising as there are wealthy GOP donors in both states (and as he says he wants a rally in each state so his fans can see him even if not in a swing state) but a bit risky when Obama has just started a marathon campaign stump for Harris in swing states to rally the black vote in particular. In 2016 Hillary also spent too much time at California donor dinners and not enough time in swing states https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzITOw51SfU
Yes, there is definitely a hint of Hillary's mistakes being repeated here. And the fear, justified or not, of being seriously outspent.
From Porter in the Guardian: " Latest figures show she’s spent $57m with Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, to Trump’s $6m, and on Google, owner of YouTube, $31.5m compared with Trump’s $9.3m."
Of course Hillary outspent him too. Didn't help her much.
Hillary wasn't a great candidate, she represented a third consecutive term, and she got shafted at the end by the FBI, but she only just missed. So I don't think you can assume everything about her strategy was wrong. If Kamala Harris had the option to be in the position of the Hillary Clinton campaign but with a fresh random roll of the cosmic dice for the last two weeks then she'd take it.
I think Harris's campaign is vastly superior to Clinton's. She is ruthlessly disciplined, none of that deploarables nonsense, she is skilful at avoiding answers, she has somehow made herself look the change candidate despite being VP for 4 years, she has raised incredible sums of money in only 2 months and is looking to spend it effectively with GOTV operation on a scale even the US has not seen before. She is utterly focused on the swing states, she has now done the interviews, done the debate (and won), done the rallies, its really gone like clockwork.
Her latest, again compared with the Hillary collapse which they tried to cover up and cost her dearly, is releasing her medical records and daring Trump to do the same. She may or may not be a good President but she knows her business and learns fast when she does something less than well.
She had no control on this but would have been better if the one and only debate was nearer the election.
Memories are fading already as to how shit Trump was in that debate.
Yes, as a said a couple of weeks ago my impression is that each time there has been a big event, like her nomination or the debate or her interviews, she has taken a step forward but the general drift is towards Trump and that advantage soon fades back to the original position which is both within the margin of error and incredibly close in the key states. Some, perhaps most, of that drift, is because being an incumbent is incredibly tricky after the last few years.
Its worrying. This is still a coin toss and the opportunities for further boosts are quite limited. The best hope is that Trump harms himself but its hard to imagine how much more obnoxious and outrageous he can get.
There is no way this gets decided on November 5th. Given the staggering incompetence of the American counting system it may be a couple of weeks before we know who has won. And that's assuming the courts don't get heavily involved.
If the polls are out 3 pts but the other way this time Harris will have a clear win. That's my hope and (still) my expectation.
If they are it will be a result of her GOTV and registration operations which have been immense. I very much hope you are right but I am less confident than I was a week ago.
Well tbh I've gone from quietly confident to cautiously optimistic. That's down a notch on my scale.
My view is that Trump is more likely than not to win.
His appeal to peoples’ darker instincts (eg the Aurora speech), is unfortunately a seductive one.
Anger and hate drive a lot of voters.
My view is that on November 5th, America's women will save America from America's men.
New: Nearly 40% of all affordable housing awards Larry Hogan approved as governor went to listed clients of his real estate firm, from which he did not divest. Hogan is the first governor in MD history to have made millions of dollars while in office. https://x.com/EricCortellessa/status/1844360586634953066
On the other hand, it makes him a bit more on brand with Trump’s GOP.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Rwanda was an absurdly expensive stunt. In the first instance Sunak and Cleverly considered it hair-brained and unworkable. It was peak Johnson and Patel, and then Braverman got on board. That's all you need to know. Rwanda was simply ludicrous.
You are more than welcome to criticise this Government on their handling of the small boats but trying to resell the Rwanda pup as anything but a pup is disingenuous.
Scrapping Rwanda is one Starmer policy with positive polling. 44% approve vs 38% disapprove.
But he has to deliver an alternative, or it won't stay that way for long.
How much do you want to bet that immigration will be down this year from 2023?
How much do you want to bet that immigration will be down next year from 2024?
I think better than even it will be. In part students leaving more than coming, and a certain number migrating overseas, both patriotic Brits who don't want to pay taxes to their country, and Poles etc wanting to return to a growing economy.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Rwanda was an absurdly expensive stunt. In the first instance Sunak and Cleverly considered it hair-brained and unworkable. It was peak Johnson and Patel, and then Braverman got on board. That's all you need to know. Rwanda was simply ludicrous.
You are more than welcome to criticise this Government on their handling of the small boats but trying to resell the Rwanda pup as anything but a pup is disingenuous.
Scrapping Rwanda is one Starmer policy with positive polling. 44% approve vs 38% disapprove.
But he has to deliver an alternative, or it won't stay that way for long.
How much do you want to bet that immigration will be down this year from 2023?
How much do you want to bet that immigration will be down next year from 2024?
That’s a more interesting question. In 2025 the student and HK/Ukraine stats will have worked through the system. Whether it rises or falls from there I expect will depend on the health of the employment market for skilled labour, and the exchange rate (I know from talking to European colleagues in London that FX makes a huge difference to whether it pays to stay or to move).
“"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
The proportion economically inactive hasn't changed much in the last 15 years despite what is generally believed. As a number it has increased but so has the sizze of the overall workforce.
The real problem, as we all know, is productivity and the truth is it is easier and cheaper to hire an extra pair of hands to do things the same old way rather than look at ways by which the process can be improved or streamlined jusing technology (perhaps).
One of the things that I noticed on my recent trip to Japan was that menial jobs that would typically be done by low-paid immigrants in the UK tended to be done by older Japanese folk. I've no idea what they were being paid, but it really surprised me how old many of the waiters, road sweepers, bus drivers, etc. looked. There are some jobs that simply can't be easily automated, and somebody still has to do them. In Japan, with its low immigration, that somebody seems to the old, poor natives.
Trump's campaigning is becoming slightly weird. The day before yesterday he was in California. Yesterday he was in Colorado. He has no chance in either of these states. What does he think he is doing?
Fundraising as there are wealthy GOP donors in both states (and as he says he wants a rally in each state so his fans can see him even if not in a swing state) but a bit risky when Obama has just started a marathon campaign stump for Harris in swing states to rally the black vote in particular. In 2016 Hillary also spent too much time at California donor dinners and not enough time in swing states https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzITOw51SfU
Yes, there is definitely a hint of Hillary's mistakes being repeated here. And the fear, justified or not, of being seriously outspent.
From Porter in the Guardian: " Latest figures show she’s spent $57m with Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, to Trump’s $6m, and on Google, owner of YouTube, $31.5m compared with Trump’s $9.3m."
Of course Hillary outspent him too. Didn't help her much.
Hillary wasn't a great candidate, she represented a third consecutive term, and she got shafted at the end by the FBI, but she only just missed. So I don't think you can assume everything about her strategy was wrong. If Kamala Harris had the option to be in the position of the Hillary Clinton campaign but with a fresh random roll of the cosmic dice for the last two weeks then she'd take it.
I think Harris's campaign is vastly superior to Clinton's. She is ruthlessly disciplined, none of that deploarables nonsense, she is skilful at avoiding answers, she has somehow made herself look the change candidate despite being VP for 4 years, she has raised incredible sums of money in only 2 months and is looking to spend it effectively with GOTV operation on a scale even the US has not seen before. She is utterly focused on the swing states, she has now done the interviews, done the debate (and won), done the rallies, its really gone like clockwork.
Her latest, again compared with the Hillary collapse which they tried to cover up and cost her dearly, is releasing her medical records and daring Trump to do the same. She may or may not be a good President but she knows her business and learns fast when she does something less than well.
She had no control on this but would have been better if the one and only debate was nearer the election.
Memories are fading already as to how shit Trump was in that debate.
Yes, as a said a couple of weeks ago my impression is that each time there has been a big event, like her nomination or the debate or her interviews, she has taken a step forward but the general drift is towards Trump and that advantage soon fades back to the original position which is both within the margin of error and incredibly close in the key states. Some, perhaps most, of that drift, is because being an incumbent is incredibly tricky after the last few years.
Its worrying. This is still a coin toss and the opportunities for further boosts are quite limited. The best hope is that Trump harms himself but its hard to imagine how much more obnoxious and outrageous he can get.
There is no way this gets decided on November 5th. Given the staggering incompetence of the American counting system it may be a couple of weeks before we know who has won. And that's assuming the courts don't get heavily involved.
If the polls are out 3 pts but the other way this time Harris will have a clear win. That's my hope and (still) my expectation.
If they are it will be a result of her GOTV and registration operations which have been immense. I very much hope you are right but I am less confident than I was a week ago.
Well tbh I've gone from quietly confident to cautiously optimistic. That's down a notch on my scale.
My view is that Trump is more likely than not to win.
His appeal to peoples’ darker instincts (eg the Aurora speech), is unfortunately a seductive one.
Anger and hate drive a lot of voters.
My view is that on November 5th, America's women will save America from America's men.
Won't stop the men being pissed at women.
I know we’re talking about Americans but please let’s keep the off in pissed off.
“"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
The proportion economically inactive hasn't changed much in the last 15 years despite what is generally believed. As a number it has increased but so has the sizze of the overall workforce.
The real problem, as we all know, is productivity and the truth is it is easier and cheaper to hire an extra pair of hands to do things the same old way rather than look at ways by which the process can be improved or streamlined jusing technology (perhaps).
Aren't the two main drags on productivity in the UK poor infrastructure and training?
Neither can easily be put right quickly, particularly infrastructure.
Infrastructure would be doable if a government were sufficiently committed to it. But it would require prioritisation over welfare, and an impatience with planning delays. Not the kind if thing you could start halfway through a parliament. And probably not what Starmer will so.
A large investment would create a demand for skilled trades, of course.
“"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
The proportion economically inactive hasn't changed much in the last 15 years despite what is generally believed. As a number it has increased but so has the sizze of the overall workforce.
The real problem, as we all know, is productivity and the truth is it is easier and cheaper to hire an extra pair of hands to do things the same old way rather than look at ways by which the process can be improved or streamlined jusing technology (perhaps).
One of the things that I noticed on my recent trip to Japan was that menial jobs that would typically be done by low-paid immigrants in the UK tended to be done by older Japanese folk. I've no idea what they were being paid, but it really surprised me how old many of the waiters, road sweepers, bus drivers, etc. looked. There are some jobs that simply can't be easily automated, and somebody still has to do them. In Japan, with its low immigration, that somebody seems to the old, poor natives.
The average age of cab drivers there seems to be about 80.
EU to table offshore asylum seeker detention centres, Starmer has to either do similar deals or watch the boat arrivals 10x as illegal immigrants all across Europe make their way to soft touch Britain.
Scrapping the Rwanda scheme will be seen as the biggest failing of this government if the EU manages to get a consensus for offshore detention.
Tusk wanting to remove the right to asylum altogether (temporarily) ought to be a bigger story.
I've been predicting that our political classes will get to this for some years now. Asylum will change from being a right to being an offer which we can choose to make as we see fit. So, we would, under such a regime, have almost certainly allowed large numbers of HK Chinese and Ukrainians to come here. Syrians, Somalis and Yemenis, few, if any, and strictly capped.
I really don't see any alternative but our political classes will try everything else first.
You want an Islamophobic asylum policy?
No, I just think that this is where we will end up. The current system is simply not sustainable from any point of view. It belongs to a different world.
And we will have to be honest that we prefer certain kinds of migration over others. @bondegezou will see it as Islamophobic but voters won’t agree
Its not directly to do with the religion but what we do not want is people who come from a very different culture than our own, patrimonial, misogynistic and homophobic, and that believe in those values and would look to uphold them here.
You write as if our country doesn’t have lots of homegrown misogynistic and homophobic people!
It wasn't a tease but I accept that @bondegezou is right. We are a long way from perfect, all of us.
These cultures, which in fairness have a lot in common with our society no more than 100 years ago, still believe that is the way it should be and are strongly opposed to change. People were still being locked up for homosexual relationships in my life time. We are not in a position to be superior about this. But we do try to be better and our laws reflect that. And that is the sort of society I want to live in myself and for my daughters to live in.
Not sure about this idea that these cultures are just a few decades behind, and give them a bit of time and they'll catch up. No, I really think it smacks of a quite conscious rejection of western values. Iran, afghanistan, etc., have demonstrably chosen a very different model and trajectory. Islam, in its Arab form, is asserting itself and demanding obediance. V S Naipaul pointed this out decades ago in 'Among the Believers'.
On the topic of immigration, another week goes by with another pronounced weekly cycle of small boat arrivals. What’s up with the French border guard on weekends?
Date Migrants arrived Boats arrived 6 October 2024 0 0 7 October 2024 0 0 8 October 2024 0 0 9 October 2024 0 0 10 October 2024 0 0 11 October 2024 142 2 12 October 2024 471 9
“"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
The proportion economically inactive hasn't changed much in the last 15 years despite what is generally believed. As a number it has increased but so has the sizze of the overall workforce.
The real problem, as we all know, is productivity and the truth is it is easier and cheaper to hire an extra pair of hands to do things the same old way rather than look at ways by which the process can be improved or streamlined jusing technology (perhaps).
Aren't the two main drags on productivity in the UK poor infrastructure and training?
Neither can easily be put right quickly, particularly infrastructure.
Yes, but it's not as though we haven't recognised the existence of the problem for a generation.
The problem is, our economic model relies on cheap labour and cheap resources to stimulate growth. Absent one or both and we struggle.
Today’s SpaceX spectacle shows the hugely massive positive side of Elon Musk. Park the politics and look at the vision thing. He imagines a future to solve the problems of today considered unsolvable. He looks at established engineering things, asks why and gets out a blank sheet of paper.
The largest rocket ever built. Made from Stainless Steel which the entire rocket science universe thought was a crazy idea. With 33 engines which previously was a recipe for big bangs and little else. Built to be wholly and quickly reusable which simply is impossible surely as nobody has even attempted it. With the rocket caught by its own landing having pulled off the Return to Laugh Site landing which put literal fear into steely eyed missile men like John Young when suggested previously.
Oh yeah. And of course the thing catching the booster is called Mecha Zilla. Why wouldn’t it be.
The road into the cosmos is open. We’re going back to the moon. We’re going to Mars. Boeing and SLS can just stop embarrassing themselves.
General Michael Flynn was asked at the Rod of Iron Freedom Festival Friday night if he'd "sit at the head of a military tribunal to not only drain the swamp, but imprison the swamp, and on a few occasions, execute the swamp."
General Flynn says "What your sentiment is about is accountability" and that "I definitely believe we need accountability."
"There's a way to get after this, but we have to win first."
"These people are already up to no good, so we gotta win first. We win, and then Katie Bar the door. Believe me, the gates of hell, my hell will be unleashed." https://x.com/FordFischer/status/1845084059833118793
Today’s SpaceX spectacle shows the hugely massive positive side of Elon Musk. Park the politics and look at the vision thing. He imagines a future to solve the problems of today considered unsolvable. He looks at established engineering things, asks why and gets out a blank sheet of paper.
The largest rocket ever built. Made from Stainless Steel which the entire rocket science universe thought was a crazy idea. With 33 engines which previously was a recipe for big bangs and little else. Built to be wholly and quickly reusable which simply is impossible surely as nobody has even attempted it. With the rocket caught by its own landing having pulled off the Return to Laugh Site landing which put literal fear into steely eyed missile men like John Young when suggested previously.
Oh yeah. And of course the thing catching the booster is called Mecha Zilla. Why wouldn’t it be.
The road into the cosmos is open. We’re going back to the moon. We’re going to Mars. Boeing and SLS can just stop embarrassing themselves.
Unfortunately that massive positive side of Elon Musk is outweighed by the traumatic depths of his negative side.
The classic 2:1 essay that I and many others churned out, usually late the night before the tutorial, to get through uni without too much sweat. Summarise the reasons why it will be A, then the reasons for B, then say it all depends on C.
These journos just take the same skills into their workplace, and we read it thinking it’s insight rather than an against-the-deadline attempt at filling the page while trying to cast an illusion of at least a modicum of insight and judgement.
Today’s SpaceX spectacle shows the hugely massive positive side of Elon Musk. Park the politics and look at the vision thing. He imagines a future to solve the problems of today considered unsolvable. He looks at established engineering things, asks why and gets out a blank sheet of paper.
The largest rocket ever built. Made from Stainless Steel which the entire rocket science universe thought was a crazy idea. With 33 engines which previously was a recipe for big bangs and little else. Built to be wholly and quickly reusable which simply is impossible surely as nobody has even attempted it. With the rocket caught by its own landing having pulled off the Return to Laugh Site landing which put literal fear into steely eyed missile men like John Young when suggested previously.
Oh yeah. And of course the thing catching the booster is called Mecha Zilla. Why wouldn’t it be.
The road into the cosmos is open. We’re going back to the moon. We’re going to Mars. Boeing and SLS can just stop embarrassing themselves.
Will rank amongst one of humanities greatest achievements. Many on here do dismiss him because he trolls on twitter, they think he is a fool and talk about how much twitter has lost in value but forget how much his total net worth just keeps growing and growing. His net worth is from companies that he has made (he didn't make Tesla but he transformed it from one of many battery car concept companies to one of the richest companies in the world from a few million investment), SpaceX is all his. He is one of the pioneering humans alive today. But he can also be a total dick.
“"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
The proportion economically inactive hasn't changed much in the last 15 years despite what is generally believed. As a number it has increased but so has the sizze of the overall workforce.
The real problem, as we all know, is productivity and the truth is it is easier and cheaper to hire an extra pair of hands to do things the same old way rather than look at ways by which the process can be improved or streamlined jusing technology (perhaps).
One of the things that I noticed on my recent trip to Japan was that menial jobs that would typically be done by low-paid immigrants in the UK tended to be done by older Japanese folk. I've no idea what they were being paid, but it really surprised me how old many of the waiters, road sweepers, bus drivers, etc. looked. There are some jobs that simply can't be easily automated, and somebody still has to do them. In Japan, with its low immigration, that somebody seems to the old, poor natives.
What I noticed on an anecdote basis was, living in what was a low immigration area of England (yeah thanks Boris and Rishi for screwing that up) how much the female participation crept into what was largely make jobs historically but had in other areas become immigrant male jobs, were where I live being done by women.
General Michael Flynn was asked at the Rod of Iron Freedom Festival Friday night if he'd "sit at the head of a military tribunal to not only drain the swamp, but imprison the swamp, and on a few occasions, execute the swamp."
General Flynn says "What your sentiment is about is accountability" and that "I definitely believe we need accountability."
"There's a way to get after this, but we have to win first."
"These people are already up to no good, so we gotta win first. We win, and then Katie Bar the door. Believe me, the gates of hell, my hell will be unleashed." https://x.com/FordFischer/status/1845084059833118793
Trump has said he wants him back if he wins.
I think some Trump voters don’t take any of this seriously and the rest seem quite happy with a dictatorship.
Raddatz: “The incidents were limited to a handful of apartment complexes...”
Vance: “Do you hear yourself? Only a handful of apartment complexes were taken over by Venezuelan gangs and Donald Trump is the problem and not Kamala Harris' open border?”
Trump's campaigning is becoming slightly weird. The day before yesterday he was in California. Yesterday he was in Colorado. He has no chance in either of these states. What does he think he is doing?
Fundraising as there are wealthy GOP donors in both states (and as he says he wants a rally in each state so his fans can see him even if not in a swing state) but a bit risky when Obama has just started a marathon campaign stump for Harris in swing states to rally the black vote in particular. In 2016 Hillary also spent too much time at California donor dinners and not enough time in swing states https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzITOw51SfU
Yes, there is definitely a hint of Hillary's mistakes being repeated here. And the fear, justified or not, of being seriously outspent.
From Porter in the Guardian: " Latest figures show she’s spent $57m with Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, to Trump’s $6m, and on Google, owner of YouTube, $31.5m compared with Trump’s $9.3m."
Of course Hillary outspent him too. Didn't help her much.
Hillary wasn't a great candidate, she represented a third consecutive term, and she got shafted at the end by the FBI, but she only just missed. So I don't think you can assume everything about her strategy was wrong. If Kamala Harris had the option to be in the position of the Hillary Clinton campaign but with a fresh random roll of the cosmic dice for the last two weeks then she'd take it.
I think Harris's campaign is vastly superior to Clinton's. She is ruthlessly disciplined, none of that deploarables nonsense, she is skilful at avoiding answers, she has somehow made herself look the change candidate despite being VP for 4 years, she has raised incredible sums of money in only 2 months and is looking to spend it effectively with GOTV operation on a scale even the US has not seen before. She is utterly focused on the swing states, she has now done the interviews, done the debate (and won), done the rallies, its really gone like clockwork.
Her latest, again compared with the Hillary collapse which they tried to cover up and cost her dearly, is releasing her medical records and daring Trump to do the same. She may or may not be a good President but she knows her business and learns fast when she does something less than well.
She had no control on this but would have been better if the one and only debate was nearer the election.
Memories are fading already as to how shit Trump was in that debate.
Yes, as a said a couple of weeks ago my impression is that each time there has been a big event, like her nomination or the debate or her interviews, she has taken a step forward but the general drift is towards Trump and that advantage soon fades back to the original position which is both within the margin of error and incredibly close in the key states. Some, perhaps most, of that drift, is because being an incumbent is incredibly tricky after the last few years.
Its worrying. This is still a coin toss and the opportunities for further boosts are quite limited. The best hope is that Trump harms himself but its hard to imagine how much more obnoxious and outrageous he can get.
There is no way this gets decided on November 5th. Given the staggering incompetence of the American counting system it may be a couple of weeks before we know who has won. And that's assuming the courts don't get heavily involved.
If the polls are out 3 pts but the other way this time Harris will have a clear win. That's my hope and (still) my expectation.
If they are it will be a result of her GOTV and registration operations which have been immense. I very much hope you are right but I am less confident than I was a week ago.
Well tbh I've gone from quietly confident to cautiously optimistic. That's down a notch on my scale.
My view is that Trump is more likely than not to win.
His appeal to peoples’ darker instincts (eg the Aurora speech), is unfortunately a seductive one.
Anger and hate drive a lot of voters.
My view is that on November 5th, America's women will save America from America's men.
Won't stop the men being pissed at women.
I know we’re talking about Americans but please let’s keep the off in pissed off.
Well, we are talking Americans. In American.
And come 6th November, there'll be a hell of a lot of guys leaving their lady for a while, going off in their truck with a whole load of beer. Some of which will get drunk. Enough for them to get pissed. The rest of which will be emptied by bullet/shot.
“"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
The proportion economically inactive hasn't changed much in the last 15 years despite what is generally believed. As a number it has increased but so has the sizze of the overall workforce.
The real problem, as we all know, is productivity and the truth is it is easier and cheaper to hire an extra pair of hands to do things the same old way rather than look at ways by which the process can be improved or streamlined jusing technology (perhaps).
Aren't the two main drags on productivity in the UK poor infrastructure and training?
Neither can easily be put right quickly, particularly infrastructure.
IIRC, it's the large percentage of working age adults who are not in employment, and the large amount of retired people. The only method the Govt has to improve productivity and growth is to import people, lots of people. This in turn creates problems.
Today’s SpaceX spectacle shows the hugely massive positive side of Elon Musk. Park the politics and look at the vision thing. He imagines a future to solve the problems of today considered unsolvable. He looks at established engineering things, asks why and gets out a blank sheet of paper.
The largest rocket ever built. Made from Stainless Steel which the entire rocket science universe thought was a crazy idea. With 33 engines which previously was a recipe for big bangs and little else. Built to be wholly and quickly reusable which simply is impossible surely as nobody has even attempted it. With the rocket caught by its own landing having pulled off the Return to Laugh Site landing which put literal fear into steely eyed missile men like John Young when suggested previously.
Oh yeah. And of course the thing catching the booster is called Mecha Zilla. Why wouldn’t it be.
The road into the cosmos is open. We’re going back to the moon. We’re going to Mars. Boeing and SLS can just stop embarrassing themselves.
Let us hope so but remember so far SpaceX has not been anywhere new, but has just developed better ways of doing what has been done for decades. It remains to be seen if this opens the door for pioneers, or is just the commoditisation of existing practice.
On the topic of immigration, another week goes by with another pronounced weekly cycle of small boat arrivals. What’s up with the French border guard on weekends?
Date Migrants arrived Boats arrived 6 October 2024 0 0 7 October 2024 0 0 8 October 2024 0 0 9 October 2024 0 0 10 October 2024 0 0 11 October 2024 142 2 12 October 2024 471 9
More good news for offshore jurisdictions, mostly Gibraltar and IOM for the online casinos isn’t it?
The question is whether General Betting Duty will be increased - it's currently 15% of bookmaker profits off-course (on-course betting is part of the horserace betting levy (HBL), which is charged on the gross profits of all betting on British horseracing (whether made on-course, in betting shops, or online). Receipts are collected by the horserace betting levy board (HBLB) – a UK statutory body.entirely tax free.
The other betting/gaming levies were expected to raise £3.6 billion in 2023/2024.
Lottery duty – charged on taking a chance or ticket in the UK National Lottery. The duty liable is a fixed proportion of total ticket sales. All lawful lotteries are exempt from the duty except the National Lottery. It is also payable on scratch cards and UK sales of Euromillions. Machine games duty (MGD) – charged on the playing of machine games that pay out cash prizes. These include slot, fruit and quiz machines, as well as fixed-odds betting terminals. The duty paid depends on how much it costs to play a game, and the size of the potential prize. MGD is not payable on machine games that offer only non-cash prizes or where the cost of playing is greater than any cash prize. It was introduced in early 2013 and replaced the amusement machine licence duty (AMLD). General betting duty (GBD) – charged on bookmakers’ profits for ‘general bets’, which include sports betting and bets on horse or dog racing, and their profits for spread bets, but exclude on-course betting. The duty paid depends on the type of bet and where it is made. Remote gaming duty (RGD) – charged on gaming provider profits from remote gaming (for instance, games played online). This includes the profits from any ‘free plays’ the provider offers. ‘Free plays’ are any offers to gamble at zero or reduced rates, and include free games, introductory bonuses or matched deposits. Gaming duty – charged on the gross gaming profits of UK-based casinos. The duty paid follows a banded structure, so more profitable casinos pay proportionately higher rates. Bingo duty – charged at a fixed rate on the gross profits of the bingo promoter. All bingo games played in the UK are liable to the duty, except domestic bingo, small-scale bingo, non-profit bingo and bingo played on machines covered by MGD, which are all exempt. Pool betting duty (PBD) – charged on bookmakers’ profits for bets where winners have a share in a pool of a stake of money.
This is an interesting header thanks @maxh. I agree with the basic ideas that are being set out. I think that in culture there was a wrong turn with masculinity about 5-10 years ago; men eagerly embraced many of the criticisms of them, but then got confused and lost confidence in themselves leading to self doubt and weakness. So instead of getting a kind of synthesis, instead we get an unwanted resurgence of the former situation, filling the vacuum. One thing I would question though is 'equal parenting' as something everyone should aspire to. I think you need to do what works best for you in your relationship and there is no perfect form of parenting.
Today’s SpaceX spectacle shows the hugely massive positive side of Elon Musk. Park the politics and look at the vision thing. He imagines a future to solve the problems of today considered unsolvable. He looks at established engineering things, asks why and gets out a blank sheet of paper.
The largest rocket ever built. Made from Stainless Steel which the entire rocket science universe thought was a crazy idea. With 33 engines which previously was a recipe for big bangs and little else. Built to be wholly and quickly reusable which simply is impossible surely as nobody has even attempted it. With the rocket caught by its own landing having pulled off the Return to Laugh Site landing which put literal fear into steely eyed missile men like John Young when suggested previously.
Oh yeah. And of course the thing catching the booster is called Mecha Zilla. Why wouldn’t it be.
The road into the cosmos is open. We’re going back to the moon. We’re going to Mars. Boeing and SLS can just stop embarrassing themselves.
Will rank amongst one of humanities greatest achievements. Many on here do dismiss him because he trolls on twitter, they think he is a fool and talk about how much twitter has lost in value but forget how much his total net worth just keeps growing and growing. His net worth is from companies that he has made (he didn't make Tesla but he transformed it from one of many battery car concept companies to one of the richest companies in the world from a few million investment), SpaceX is all his. He is one of the pioneering humans alive today. But he can also be a total dick.
Busting a gut to get Donald Trump back into power is way more than dickery. It's a crime against humanity. It's amazing how great intelligence and great stupidity can coexist in a single individual. Eg one of my teenage crushes, Bobby Fischer. A chess genius yet at the same time a softhead bigot and conspiracy theorist.
Today’s SpaceX spectacle shows the hugely massive positive side of Elon Musk. Park the politics and look at the vision thing. He imagines a future to solve the problems of today considered unsolvable. He looks at established engineering things, asks why and gets out a blank sheet of paper.
The largest rocket ever built. Made from Stainless Steel which the entire rocket science universe thought was a crazy idea. With 33 engines which previously was a recipe for big bangs and little else. Built to be wholly and quickly reusable which simply is impossible surely as nobody has even attempted it. With the rocket caught by its own landing having pulled off the Return to Laugh Site landing which put literal fear into steely eyed missile men like John Young when suggested previously.
Oh yeah. And of course the thing catching the booster is called Mecha Zilla. Why wouldn’t it be.
The road into the cosmos is open. We’re going back to the moon. We’re going to Mars. Boeing and SLS can just stop embarrassing themselves.
Unfortunately that massive positive side of Elon Musk is outweighed by the traumatic depths of his negative side.
Today’s SpaceX spectacle shows the hugely massive positive side of Elon Musk. Park the politics and look at the vision thing. He imagines a future to solve the problems of today considered unsolvable. He looks at established engineering things, asks why and gets out a blank sheet of paper.
The largest rocket ever built. Made from Stainless Steel which the entire rocket science universe thought was a crazy idea. With 33 engines which previously was a recipe for big bangs and little else. Built to be wholly and quickly reusable which simply is impossible surely as nobody has even attempted it. With the rocket caught by its own landing having pulled off the Return to Laugh Site landing which put literal fear into steely eyed missile men like John Young when suggested previously.
Oh yeah. And of course the thing catching the booster is called Mecha Zilla. Why wouldn’t it be.
The road into the cosmos is open. We’re going back to the moon. We’re going to Mars. Boeing and SLS can just stop embarrassing themselves.
Will rank amongst one of humanities greatest achievements. Many on here do dismiss him because he trolls on twitter, they think he is a fool and talk about how much twitter has lost in value but forget how much his total net worth just keeps growing and growing. His net worth is from companies that he has made (he didn't make Tesla but he transformed it from one of many battery car concept companies to one of the richest companies in the world from a few million investment), SpaceX is all his. He is one of the pioneering humans alive today. But he can also be a total dick.
Busting a gut to get Donald Trump back into power is way more than dickery. It's a crime against humanity. It's amazing how great intelligence and great stupidity can coexist in a single individual. Eg one of my teenage crushes, Bobby Fischer. A chess genius yet at the same time a softhead bigot and conspiracy theorist.
Was he the one played by an attractive woman for a Netflix mini series? I think I saw his burial site in Iceland.
Today’s SpaceX spectacle shows the hugely massive positive side of Elon Musk. Park the politics and look at the vision thing. He imagines a future to solve the problems of today considered unsolvable. He looks at established engineering things, asks why and gets out a blank sheet of paper.
The largest rocket ever built. Made from Stainless Steel which the entire rocket science universe thought was a crazy idea. With 33 engines which previously was a recipe for big bangs and little else. Built to be wholly and quickly reusable which simply is impossible surely as nobody has even attempted it. With the rocket caught by its own landing having pulled off the Return to Laugh Site landing which put literal fear into steely eyed missile men like John Young when suggested previously.
Oh yeah. And of course the thing catching the booster is called Mecha Zilla. Why wouldn’t it be.
The road into the cosmos is open. We’re going back to the moon. We’re going to Mars. Boeing and SLS can just stop embarrassing themselves.
Let us hope so but remember so far SpaceX has not been anywhere new, but has just developed better ways of doing what has been done for decades. It remains to be seen if this opens the door for pioneers, or is just the commoditisation of existing practice.
He's off to Mars possibly before the next general election.
Today’s SpaceX spectacle shows the hugely massive positive side of Elon Musk. Park the politics and look at the vision thing. He imagines a future to solve the problems of today considered unsolvable. He looks at established engineering things, asks why and gets out a blank sheet of paper.
The largest rocket ever built. Made from Stainless Steel which the entire rocket science universe thought was a crazy idea. With 33 engines which previously was a recipe for big bangs and little else. Built to be wholly and quickly reusable which simply is impossible surely as nobody has even attempted it. With the rocket caught by its own landing having pulled off the Return to Laugh Site landing which put literal fear into steely eyed missile men like John Young when suggested previously.
Oh yeah. And of course the thing catching the booster is called Mecha Zilla. Why wouldn’t it be.
The road into the cosmos is open. We’re going back to the moon. We’re going to Mars. Boeing and SLS can just stop embarrassing themselves.
Will rank amongst one of humanities greatest achievements. Many on here do dismiss him because he trolls on twitter, they think he is a fool and talk about how much twitter has lost in value but forget how much his total net worth just keeps growing and growing. His net worth is from companies that he has made (he didn't make Tesla but he transformed it from one of many battery car concept companies to one of the richest companies in the world from a few million investment), SpaceX is all his. He is one of the pioneering humans alive today. But he can also be a total dick.
Busting a gut to get Donald Trump back into power is way more than dickery. It's a crime against humanity. It's amazing how great intelligence and great stupidity can coexist in a single individual. Eg one of my teenage crushes, Bobby Fischer. A chess genius yet at the same time a softhead bigot and conspiracy theorist.
A crime against humanity. The Holocaust was a crime against humanity. The Khmer Rouge was a crime against humanity. Electing Trump 😂😂😂 get a grip.
“"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
The proportion economically inactive hasn't changed much in the last 15 years despite what is generally believed. As a number it has increased but so has the sizze of the overall workforce.
The real problem, as we all know, is productivity and the truth is it is easier and cheaper to hire an extra pair of hands to do things the same old way rather than look at ways by which the process can be improved or streamlined jusing technology (perhaps).
Aren't the two main drags on productivity in the UK poor infrastructure and training?
Neither can easily be put right quickly, particularly infrastructure.
Poor management, too. Particularly in family-run SMEs. And capitalism being replaced by landlordism, of course.
Mark the day. 13th October 2024. Truly One Giant Leap for Mankind.
The big rocket?
ETA ok; have now seen your other posts.
Seems rather overblown from Rochadale. Ok it's a clever achievement but not on the scale of the leaps forward on: 4 October 1957, 12 April 1961, 18 March 1965, 24 December 1968, or 20 July 1969
Comments
Immigrants from much of Africa, the Islamic world, South Asia, tend to be a net drain. They literally make the country poorer. Migrants from east Asia, Eastern Europe, etc, are a net benefit
So you simply have to be economically hard nosed and favour migrants from those places. The UK PLC is not a charity seeking to house all the homeless of the world
These cultures, which in fairness have a lot in common with our society no more than 100 years ago, still believe that is the way it should be and are strongly opposed to change. People were still being locked up for homosexual relationships in my life time. We are not in a position to be superior about this. But we do try to be better and our laws reflect that. And that is the sort of society I want to live in myself and for my daughters to live in.
@Politics_Polls
·
7m
National
@NBCNews
Poll (Shift since 9/17):
Trump 48% (+4)
Harris 48% (-1)
And now Farage has not even the political nous to make hay of 4 million votes for just five seats, contrasted with the LibDems getting 72 seats from a mere 3.5 million votes.
The risk for Kemi or Jenrick has already been shown in July: in tacking right to meet Reform, they spill seats to the LibDems on their left. That's the danger Farage poses: the siren luring the Tories onto the rocks.
I don't particularly have a problem with it, but maybe the Tories should consider why Big Dog and Sunak did so before going for the full black uniform and deportation to the east meme.
https://x.com/Victorshi2020/status/1845448918349361575
I hate BoZo because he's a lying shit. Brexit was only one of the things he lied about
What the Tories have to do, if they want to govern again, is defeat him.
They didn't do that in 2016 and now they are fucked.
Don't appease him. Don't ape him. Don't join him.
Do what the GOP should have done with Trump 8 years ago
Shocked !
You are more than welcome to criticise this Government on their handling of the small boats but trying to resell the Rwanda pup as anything but a pup is disingenuous.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1845354637752164597
Liz Cheney?
Performative idiocy is what they do. In this case they have just torpedoed themselves if it went to court. But it won’t. Because Space Force will classify all launches out of the base as national security. And Federal overrides state.
Personally I can't understand why anyone would vote for the lying sack of shit, Trump. You'll have to enlighten me.
There's a parallel example that has impressed me for years. Almost every year since WW II US life expectancy has risen for every major sub group in the US. But not at the same rates, so some time in the 1980s, life expectancy for black women passed life expectancy for white men.
"At least he lies to our face."
Me, I blame the US education system. It's failing in its duty to produce a citizenry equipped with the basics.
"Harris has 50% support to Trump's 48% among likely voters in the national survey, with a similar 49-47% result among all registered voters."
https://www.aei.org/research-products/book/the-war-against-boys-how-misguided-policies-are-harming-our-young-men/
Biden has seemingly completely given up.
In a month or so, we’ll (hopefully) know which methodological choice was right. But until then, if you’re not a professional pollster, do you really need to be spending the fleeting minutes you have on this earth thinking about weighting on recalled votes? Call people you care about and tell them you love them. Take 10 deep breaths and watch where your mind wanders. Do literally anything else.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/opinion/polls-harris-trump.html
Having it in a joke language like Welsh is ridiculous too. That is irrelevant to my point, which was about settled status, not the right to vote.
How many will defect? Even Russia is better than living in N Korea.
(also to write fine articles to educate and entertain you
(Tenn says he intended a gentle satire, but after those reactions, he would say that, wouldn't he?)
"Very very strict on migration and asylum but never going to do evil stuff like deportation"
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/political_party/Labour_Party
(I'm sure I have seen VAT mentioned, but it isn't in this piece.)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/11/labour-tax-gambling-firms-treasury-public-finances
But, anyway, we can laugh about it, but it could well free up many more thousands of Russian troops to assault the front lines. Russia keeps on taking all these escalatory steps and the Western response is really weak.
China is watching and the lesson being learnt is that the West is weak, easily intimidated, and will abandon a democracy. It's incredibly dangerous and the repercussions for the rest of the century are momentous.
Good evening, everybody.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men's_liberation_movement#:~:text=The men's liberation movement, as,counterculture, women's and gay liberation
Sadly in the USA in particular life expectancy is a real problem, and healthy life expectancy even more so. These graphs illustrate what has been happening:
Until they see as their only card after screwing the economy up.“
20% of the working age population are economically inactive. Tighter unemployment and sickness benefits would replace immigrant labour and reduce the deficit.
Can you still advertise abroad for labour at 80% of the domestic wage?
His appeal to peoples’ darker instincts (eg the Aurora speech), is unfortunately a seductive one.
Anger and hate drive a lot of voters.
Even more so, when you can make all of, or part of, that simple answer the Other. In this case, immigrants.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/13/kemi-badenoch-tory-leadership-contest-labour
The other betting/gaming levies were expected to raise £3.6 billion in 2023/2024.
Lottery duty – charged on taking a chance or ticket in the UK National Lottery. The duty liable is a fixed proportion of total ticket sales. All lawful lotteries are exempt from the duty except the National Lottery. It is also payable on scratch cards and UK sales of Euromillions.
Machine games duty (MGD) – charged on the playing of machine games that pay out cash prizes. These include slot, fruit and quiz machines, as well as fixed-odds betting terminals. The duty paid depends on how much it costs to play a game, and the size of the potential prize. MGD is not payable on machine games that offer only non-cash prizes or where the cost of playing is greater than any cash prize. It was introduced in early 2013 and replaced the amusement machine licence duty (AMLD).
General betting duty (GBD) – charged on bookmakers’ profits for ‘general bets’, which include sports betting and bets on horse or dog racing, and their profits for spread bets, but exclude on-course betting. The duty paid depends on the type of bet and where it is made.
Remote gaming duty (RGD) – charged on gaming provider profits from remote gaming (for instance, games played online). This includes the profits from any ‘free plays’ the provider offers. ‘Free plays’ are any offers to gamble at zero or reduced rates, and include free games, introductory bonuses or matched deposits.
Gaming duty – charged on the gross gaming profits of UK-based casinos. The duty paid follows a banded structure, so more profitable casinos pay proportionately higher rates.
Bingo duty – charged at a fixed rate on the gross profits of the bingo promoter. All bingo games played in the UK are liable to the duty, except domestic bingo, small-scale bingo, non-profit bingo and bingo played on machines covered by MGD, which are all exempt.
Pool betting duty (PBD) – charged on bookmakers’ profits for bets where winners have a share in a pool of a stake of money.
The real problem, as we all know, is productivity and the truth is it is easier and cheaper to hire an extra pair of hands to do things the same old way rather than look at ways by which the process can be improved or streamlined jusing technology (perhaps).
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/13/tory-leadership-british-politics-right-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
After a day of driving, having left just after posting about the local hunters out shooting, I arrive at Calais Eurotunnel to two unnerving experiences.
The first that I had written Dauphinoise instead of dauphinois for that most masculine of potato dishes in a post about masculinity.
The second that after a suspicious series of questions by the British passport man about where I’d come from and why I’m travelling alone, I was taken aside for a security check and had to unpack the whole boot and lift the spare wheel cover, presumably just in case I was hiding an asylum seeker. Or a haul of drugs.
Neither can easily be put right quickly, particularly infrastructure.
Won't stop the men being pissed at women.
New: Nearly 40% of all affordable housing awards Larry Hogan approved as governor went to listed clients of his real estate firm, from which he did not divest. Hogan is the first governor in MD history to have made millions of dollars while in office.
https://x.com/EricCortellessa/status/1844360586634953066
On the other hand, it makes him a bit more on brand with Trump’s GOP.
Not the kind if thing you could start halfway through a parliament. And probably not what Starmer will so.
A large investment would create a demand for skilled trades, of course.
No, I really think it smacks of a quite conscious rejection of western values. Iran, afghanistan, etc., have demonstrably chosen a very different model and trajectory. Islam, in its Arab form, is asserting itself and demanding obediance. V S Naipaul pointed this out decades ago in 'Among the Believers'.
Date Migrants arrived Boats arrived
6 October 2024 0 0
7 October 2024 0 0
8 October 2024 0 0
9 October 2024 0 0
10 October 2024 0 0
11 October 2024 142 2
12 October 2024 471 9
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days
Or are the people smugglers moonlighting from 9-5 office jobs. Once they’ve done the trente cinq heures it’s time for the weekend side hustle.
Or, more prosaically, are the home office just batch processing?
The problem is, our economic model relies on cheap labour and cheap resources to stimulate growth. Absent one or both and we struggle.
The largest rocket ever built. Made from Stainless Steel which the entire rocket science universe thought was a crazy idea. With 33 engines which previously was a recipe for big bangs and little else. Built to be wholly and quickly reusable which simply is impossible surely as nobody has even attempted it. With the rocket caught by its own landing having pulled off the Return to Laugh Site landing which put literal fear into steely eyed missile men like John Young when suggested previously.
Oh yeah. And of course the thing catching the booster is called Mecha Zilla. Why wouldn’t it be.
The road into the cosmos is open. We’re going back to the moon. We’re going to Mars. Boeing and SLS can just stop embarrassing themselves.
General Michael Flynn was asked at the Rod of Iron Freedom Festival Friday night if he'd "sit at the head of a military tribunal to not only drain the swamp, but imprison the swamp, and on a few occasions, execute the swamp."
General Flynn says "What your sentiment is about is accountability" and that "I definitely believe we need accountability."
"There's a way to get after this, but we have to win first."
"These people are already up to no good, so we gotta win first. We win, and then Katie Bar the door. Believe me, the gates of hell, my hell will be unleashed."
https://x.com/FordFischer/status/1845084059833118793
Trump has said he wants him back if he wins.
These journos just take the same skills into their workplace, and we read it thinking it’s insight rather than an against-the-deadline attempt at filling the page while trying to cast an illusion of at least a modicum of insight and judgement.
He is one of the pioneering humans alive today. But he can also be a total dick.
ETA ok; have now seen your other posts.
https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1845472475322462468
Raddatz: “The incidents were limited to a handful of apartment complexes...”
Vance: “Do you hear yourself? Only a handful of apartment complexes were taken over by Venezuelan gangs and Donald Trump is the problem and not Kamala Harris' open border?”
And come 6th November, there'll be a hell of a lot of guys leaving their lady for a while, going off in their truck with a whole load of beer. Some of which will get drunk. Enough for them to get pissed. The rest of which will be emptied by bullet/shot.
So I think we can be reasonably confident the pattern of zero arrivals during the week is accurate.
I think that in culture there was a wrong turn with masculinity about 5-10 years ago; men eagerly embraced many of the criticisms of them, but then got confused and lost confidence in themselves leading to self doubt and weakness. So instead of getting a kind of synthesis, instead we get an unwanted resurgence of the former situation, filling the vacuum.
One thing I would question though is 'equal parenting' as something everyone should aspire to. I think you need to do what works best for you in your relationship and there is no perfect form of parenting.
And capitalism being replaced by landlordism, of course.
4 October 1957,
12 April 1961,
18 March 1965,
24 December 1968, or
20 July 1969