To be fair to Ed he wanted to tell us, but chickened out at the last minute on his WATO interview,guess he didn't want to frighten voters before Thursday's elections.
What are Labour's spending plans ?
A piece of paper with a hurriedly scrawled " IOU ". , plus a juvenile crack about " there's no money left." at the bottom.
Just a question regarding your PR^2 system - are you envisaging having separate counts in each of the home nations, or one big count UK wide? If the latter then how will NI still get 18 religious loonies and terrorists elected? If the former it surely won't be as proportional overall?
The four home nations would conduct their own counts. Anything else would be undemocratic and impractical. The figures I give are a quick estimate, but I would not expect the detailed result to differ much.
Question for political anaroks Can anyone see an example of where the labour vote share fell in any of the northen/midland marginals?
I've done nearly 40 marginal seats and labours vote share has either maintained or increased. They are even winning seats like leicestershire nw which saw a 18% swing despite low turnout.
If Labours share of the vote is maintaining or increasing in northern/midlands does it matter if labour dont win in the south?
I voted for that too - 'Queensferry Crossing' would have been my second choice - why the heck is this being done on FPTP?????
Not the St Margaret you are thinking it is mind you but it would be my second choice, she is linked with Queensferry of course.
It was the 'St Margaret' I was thinking of - but I think a saint linked to the site is better than the other bland offerings (and also has the coincidental advantage of remembering the recently departed PM - who I doubt is in line for canonisation....)
Yes and it was her that started the ferry and hence Queensferry so either of those two are easily the best. Think Bridge would have been much better than crossing as well.
Labour spinners employing Dave and Kens smear tactics a week late...
That's not a smear,its a fact. Where do you think the 2009 European Election BNP vote has gone?
Wouldnt know for sure... no doubt some has gone to UKIP, not necessarily all.
You are just doing what Cameron and Clarke did, but nevermind. The seven stages of grief in action yet again.
Im not sure what the point of you being on here is most of the time. You constantly insult people whose crime is not to be a socialist like yourself, and your manner is unlikely to recruit any floating voters to Labour even on the occasions that you make a valid point.
Why dont you stick to trying to trick mug punters into betting 3/1 shots at EVS ?
Tim - is that official Labour tactics to fight Ukip - just call them racists for next 2 years ? Clarke and Cam have already been down that path..
Most CURRENT Labour voters (unlike some of those who have wandered off to other parties during 1997-2010) are pretty allergic to anything seen as the reactionary right. Some Conservative voters don't feel that being reactionary is a deal-breaker and wander off to UKIP anyway. South Shields was a good illustration - Labour vote share virtually unchanged despite all the hype, Tory vote switching to UKIP in droves.
SeanT's friends are a good anecdotal example. It's not that they've thought about voting UKIP but decided on balance not at the moment. They can't imagine why anyone would conceivably want to vote UKIP. That's particularly true in marginal seats where the Labour vote tends to be more centrist and middle-class. Some find the UKIP surge horrific, others view it with detached amusement, very few want to join in.
SeanT's lefty friends are virtual ones. Lefty's having lunch with SeanT ?
EdM is a bit useless, and will be found wanting in the GE campaign. Cameron is, well, do I need to spell it out? Clegg and his party are near-doomed Farage and his party build on the momentum and carry on building.
So what would this do to the Westminster seating arrangements? And for the right to govern?
Fraser Nelson: "Whether innocent or guilty, Evans’ political career is effectively over. He will probably have to resign as Deputy Speaker, and perhaps even as an MP, before guilt is proven or disproven."
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
Yawn. The "strategist" chorus is just frankly tedious. I can only assume it's a crude effort to keep the focu off the vacuum which is Miliband's head. Strategy wise he's is as deep poo as Cameron as his efforts to swing the country behind him are as flat as Lincolnshire. So far Ed and Ed have presented precisely zero on what they would do and clock is now on countdown for Geekman to eek out an Ed the candidate position. Every dat which goes by with nothing said is just another when the image of Ed the empty suit gets more dug in.
Has it taken the inquest of Labour's performance off the front pages? If so, the Mirror should be congratulated.
I think it was SKY and the Daily Mail that broke the story.....
I'll have a look later, but from my recollection yesterday, they all had it and I think it was being reported as a mirror exclusive according to PB yesterday. Anyway, tennis beckons in 30 minutes. I have to get ready.
Fraser Nelson: "Whether innocent or guilty, Evans’ political career is effectively over. He will probably have to resign as Deputy Speaker, and perhaps even as an MP, before guilt is proven or disproven."
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
The big advantage of FPTP, Surby, is that it delivers a government.
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
EdM is a bit useless, and will be found wanting in the GE campaign. Cameron is, well, do I need to spell it out? Clegg and his party are near-doomed Farage and his party build on the momentum and carry on building.
So what would this do to the Westminster seating arrangements? And for the right to govern?
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
I wonder what the Labour strategists were saying back in 1900... PR? or AV? And now... they're the ones who get the largest benefit from FPTP and the uneven distribution of vote.
Fraser Nelson: "Whether innocent or guilty, Evans’ political career is effectively over. He will probably have to resign as Deputy Speaker, and perhaps even as an MP, before guilt is proven or disproven."
Even if he's innocent? If he's proved innocent, exactly what has he done wrong?
The problem is - no one is 'proved innocent' - either he's charged, or not ('insufficient evidence') "no smoke without fire", and if he's charged he's either convicted or acquitted - the only proof there ever will be will be of 'guilt'.
Which is probably why today's YouGov has (net) secrecy for
Sexual Offence arrest: +59 charge: -2
Murder arrest: +39 charge: -20
The public recognise their own problem of 'no smoke without fire'.
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
The big advantage of FPTP, Surby, is that it delivers a government.
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
some of us would welcome 2-5 % on our savings instead of 0.5% to support an unreformed banking sector and a clueless Chancellor.
Big team of LAB canvassers in my road this morning & it's two years away from GE2015. The joy of living in a marginal with a CON maj of 1300. The LAB MP defeated in 2010 canvassed me.
Fraser Nelson: "Whether innocent or guilty, Evans’ political career is effectively over. He will probably have to resign as Deputy Speaker, and perhaps even as an MP, before guilt is proven or disproven."
Even if he's innocent? If he's proved innocent, exactly what has he done wrong?
Well, quite - more precisely, if there is no provable case against him (and remember he's not been charged yet). no way should he have to resign if he's not even charged.
I support the idea of giving accused people anonymity at least until charged - but I'm puzzled that the campaign for this focuses on rape cases. If you're accused of grevious bodily harm or rape, aren't the issues almost exactly the same? OK, you get cases where there's an argument about consent, and few people consent to GBH, but the principle is surely that if you're presumed innocent and the police haven't charged you with anything, you're entitled not to have your name smeared across the press. And that applies to everything from alleged shoplifting to alleged rape to alleged terrorism - just as the public says in the YouGov poll.
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
I wonder what the Labour strategists were saying back in 1900... PR? or AV? And now... they're the ones who get the largest benefit from FPTP and the uneven distribution of vote.
In 1900 Labour was very happy to win a seat anyway they could. In fact, they very often needed Liberal support to do so!
Is Anna soubry still running for the broxtowe seat or will ken clarke be pushed aside so she can safely in radcliffe?
I was told by a senior Conservative this week that this remains under discussion. finding out what Ken Clarke wants to do is clearly a prerquisite, and I don't think he's in any hurry to say. If he wants to stay, the chance of his being pushed aside by his consistuency association is zero. If he wants to clear the way for Anna (who is a longstanding fan of his), then maybe. It depends how keen the Tories are to keep her in the Commons.
Big team of LAB canvassers in my road this morning & it's two years away from GE2015. The joy of living in a marginal with a CON maj of 1300. The LAB MP defeated in 2010 canvassed me.
Labour is very hungry to return to power.
They know where you live.
If you weren't a leading political blogger would they have bothered.
I wonder what the Labour strategists were saying back in 1900... PR? or AV? And now... they're the ones who get the largest benefit from FPTP and the uneven distribution of vote.
For all plausible scenarios under FPTP, Labour...
1. Will always be either the largest or second largest party. 2. Often will be the largest party even with only the second or third largest share of the vote.
As was pointed out on the Sunday Politics, the Telegraph took their William Hague article - and instead of leading with it - stuck it on page 2 - perhaps Hague is saying something the Telegraph does not want to hear:
What is at stake is not tomorrow’s headlines, but Britain’s place in the world for decades to come. If doing the right thing means sacrifices, tough decisions, a spell of unpopularity – so be it. Other politicians can promise easy ways out of the mess if they wish; the Conservative Party will keep working in Britain’s national interest, however long and grinding and painstaking that work may be.
Politics can be an endless roller-coaster of ups and downs but it is vital to remember this: the ultimate goal is not to score in the headlines or grasp for another point or two in the polls, but to serve your country the best you can and act in Britain’s long-term interest. That has always been the Conservative Party way – and we are sticking to it.
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
The big advantage of FPTP, Surby, is that it delivers a government.
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
some of us would welcome 2-5 % on our savings instead of 0.5% to support an unreformed banking sector and a clueless Chancellor.
Then you have to factor in the relative risks of holding funds in Italian Banks (ultimately underwritten by the EU like the Cyprus banks) and the UK banks (ultimately underwritten by HM Government like Northern Rock, RBOS and Lloyds).
And then there is exchange rate risk. That would have played in your favour over the past twelve months but not over the past two months.
All in all better to keep your money in the UK. Cheshire Building Society offers an instant cash access ISA account at a table topping 2.30% (with 1.8% bonus to end Oct 2014).
Looks like it is post only account but there may be a branch in Tatton.
Fraser Nelson: "Whether innocent or guilty, Evans’ political career is effectively over. He will probably have to resign as Deputy Speaker, and perhaps even as an MP, before guilt is proven or disproven."
Even if he's innocent? If he's proved innocent, exactly what has he done wrong?
Well, quite - more precisely, if there is no provable case against him (and remember he's not been charged yet). no way should he have to resign if he's not even charged.
I support the idea of giving accused people anonymity at least until charged - but I'm puzzled that the campaign for this focuses on rape cases. If you're accused of grevious bodily harm or rape, aren't the issues almost exactly the same? OK, you get cases where there's an argument about consent, and few people consent to GBH, but the principle is surelylyhat if you're presumed innocent and the police haven't charged you with anything, you're entitled not to have your name smeared across the press. And that applies to everything from alleged shoplifting to alleged rape to alleged terrorism - just as the public says in the YouGov poll.
I think that the public need to understand a) what crimes have been committed; b) whether there has been a related arrest and/or charge, and whether the police may still be looking for additional people; c) which crimes are solved by what sentence of the courts (rather than our drift to secret courts), with full trial reporting. Justice must be seen to be done.
Where serious crimes are involved such that victims and witnesses may feel intimidated, it may greatly help them to know who has been arrested.
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
My recollection is that the Tories offered a referendum on AV but did not support AV. The LibDems reneged on boundary changes on a weak excuse after losing HoL reforms. The only backstabbers were the LibDems.
Fraser Nelson: "Whether innocent or guilty, Evans’ political career is effectively over. He will probably have to resign as Deputy Speaker, and perhaps even as an MP, before guilt is proven or disproven."
Even if he's innocent? If he's proved innocent, exactly what has he done wrong?
Well, quite - more precisely, if there is no provable case against him (and remember he's not been charged yet). no way should he have to resign if he's not even charged.
I support the idea of giving accused people anonymity at least until charged - but I'm puzzled that the campaign for this focuses on rape cases. If you're accused of grevious bodily harm or rape, aren't the issues almost exactly the same? OK, you get cases where there's an argument about consent, and few people consent to GBH, but the principle is surely that if you're presumed innocent and the police haven't charged you with anything, you're entitled not to have your name smeared across the press. And that applies to everything from alleged shoplifting to alleged rape to alleged terrorism - just as the public says in the YouGov poll.
My understanding is that it is police policy not to reveal the identity of people who have been arrested.
Once charged then it is policy to reveal the name(s).
The issues are therefore:
a) Once charged with rape, should the name of the person be kept confidential, and
b) How to prevent the names of those arrested from leaking
It may be that in the recent case the MP chose to get his statement in the media before his arrest was leaked to the press.
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
The big advantage of FPTP, Surby, is that it delivers a government.
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
some of us would welcome 2-5 % on our savings instead of 0.5% to support an unreformed banking sector and a clueless Chancellor.
Then you have to factor in the relative risks of holding funds in Italian Banks (ultimately underwritten by the EU like the Cyprus banks) and the UK banks (ultimately underwritten by HM Government like Northern Rock, RBOS and Lloyds).
And then there is exchange rate risk. That would have played in your favour over the past twelve months but not over the past two months.
All in all better to keep your money in the UK. Cheshire Building Society offers an instant cash access ISA account at a table topping 2.30% (with 1.8% bonus to end Oct 2014).
Looks like it is post only account but there may be a branch in Tatton.
Avery
I know how banking works. Are you telling me our banks aren't also creaming off margin differentials ? The only difference between us and Italy is the mechansms HMG has open to it to bail them out through ripping off savings. Your "good news" on interest rates isn't good news for savers and as for pension funds....
I wonder what the Labour strategists were saying back in 1900... PR? or AV? And now... they're the ones who get the largest benefit from FPTP and the uneven distribution of vote.
For all plausible scenarios under FPTP, Labour...
1. Will always be either the largest or second largest party. 2. Often will be the largest party even with only the second or third largest share of the vote.
Great, eh?
At the last election there was a chance that Labour would have become the third party. A further period of bad government from them and I think that becomes very likely. UK politics is now in flux as it was when the Whigs and Tories were replaced. I doubt whether either Conservatives or Labour as we now know them will be big parties in say 20 years time.
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
The big advantage of FPTP, Surby, is that it delivers a government.
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
some of us would welcome 2-5 % on our savings instead of 0.5% to support an unreformed banking sector and a clueless Chancellor.
Then you have to factor in the relative risks of holding funds in Italian Banks (ultimately underwritten by the EU like the Cyprus banks) and the UK banks (ultimately underwritten by HM Government like Northern Rock, RBOS and Lloyds).
And then there is exchange rate risk. That would have played in your favour over the past twelve months but not over the past two months.
All in all better to keep your money in the UK. Cheshire Building Society offers an instant cash access ISA account at a table topping 2.30% (with 1.8% bonus to end Oct 2014).
Looks like it is post only account but there may be a branch in Tatton.
Avery
I know how banking works. Are you telling me our banks aren't also creaming off margin differentials ? The only difference between us and Italy is the mechansms HMG has open to it to bail them out through ripping off savings. Your "good news" on interest rates isn't good news for savers and as for pension funds....
There is no absolute good news, Mr. Brooke, just better news.
And your bread is better buttered in the UK than Italy.
But then if you want better wine, women and song ... it is time to join Moniker and Tyson in the sun.
Fraser Nelson: "Whether innocent or guilty, Evans’ political career is effectively over. He will probably have to resign as Deputy Speaker, and perhaps even as an MP, before guilt is proven or disproven."
Even if he's innocent? If he's proved innocent, exactly what has he done wrong?
Well, quite - more precisely, if there is no provable case against him (and remember he's not been charged yet). no way should he have to resign if he's not even charged.
I support the idea of giving accused people anonymity at least until charged - but I'm puzzled that the campaign for this focuses on rape cases. If you're accused of grevious bodily harm or rape, aren't the issues almost exactly the same? OK, you get cases where there's an argument about consent, and few people consent to GBH, but the principle is surely that if you're presumed innocent and the police haven't charged you with anything, you're entitled not to have your name smeared across the press. And that applies to everything from alleged shoplifting to alleged rape to alleged terrorism - just as the public says in the YouGov poll.
It may be that in the recent case the MP chose to get his statement in the media before his arrest was leaked to the press.
Evans was still being questioned when SKY broke the story....he made his statement ±16 hours later.
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
The big advantage of FPTP, Surby, is that it delivers a government.
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
some of us would welcome 2-5 % on our savings instead of 0.5% to support an unreformed banking sector and a clueless Chancellor.
Then you have to factor in the relative risks of holding funds in Italian Banks (ultimately underwritten by the EU like the Cyprus banks) and the UK banks (ultimately underwritten by HM Government like Northern Rock, RBOS and Lloyds).
And then there is exchange rate risk. That would have played in your favour over the past twelve months but not over the past two months.
All in all better to keep your money in the UK. Cheshire Building Society offers an instant cash access ISA account at a table topping 2.30% (with 1.8% bonus to end Oct 2014).
Looks like it is post only account but there may be a branch in Tatton.
Avery
I know how banking works. Are you telling me our banks aren't also creaming off margin differentials ? The only difference between us and Italy is the mechansms HMG has open to it to bail them out through ripping off savings. Your "good news" on interest rates isn't good news for savers and as for pension funds....
There is no absolute good news, Mr. Brooke, just better news.
And your bread is better buttered in the UK than Italy.
But then if you want wine, women and song ... it is time to join Moniker and Tyson.
Ah mister Pole that is where we differ. There is no absolute good news, but our own news could be so much better. You are happy with Tatton style apologism and managed decline, while I'm still heading for those sunny uplands Mr Cameron gave up on several years back.
There is no justification for giving those accused of sexual offences anonymity, any more than there is a justification for giving those accused of murder, wounding with intent or fraud anonymity. Once you accept the principle, there is no argument against effectively removing the entire criminal justice system from public scrutiny. Criminal offences are not private matters between victim and perpetrator. They are offences against the Queen, the law of the land and the community as a whole. It is only proper that they should be aired openly and publicly. The problem arises because (understandably, although without legitimate justification), complainants in sexual offence cases have been given anonymity, although quite why a party to a criminal case should get anonymity because a witness has it, has never been satisfactorily explained.
"On standard of living, no one is promising that this will improve significantly during this government, The Bank of England has consistently stated that real standards of living will fall over a decade from the financial crisis and reach a fall of up to 20% before starting to recover
I predicted that 5 years ago when the recession began.
Nice to see the BoE finally catching up - they certainly weren't predicting that at the time.
Although I can't claim any economic brilliance - it was simply a matter noticing of how retail spending and industrial production had changed since 2000 and the associated increase in consumer debt.
I wonder why the BoE, Treasury etc weren't able to do likewise ?
There is no justification for giving those accused of sexual offences anonymity, any more than there is a justification for giving those accused of murder, wounding with intent or fraud anonymity.
And the public, narrowly, agrees - the question posed today is 'anonymity on arrest'.
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
The big advantage of FPTP, Surby, is that it delivers a government.
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
some of us would welcome 2-5 % on our savings instead of 0.5% to support an unreformed banking sector and a clueless Chancellor.
Then you have to factor in the relative risks of holding funds in Italian Banks (ultimately underwritten by the EU like the Cyprus banks) and the UK banks (ultimately underwritten by HM Government like Northern Rock, RBOS and Lloyds).
And then there is exchange rate risk. That would have played in your favour over the past twelve months but not over the past two months.
All in all better to keep your money in the UK. Cheshire Building Society offers an instant cash access ISA account at a table topping 2.30% (with 1.8% bonus to end Oct 2014).
Looks like it is post only account but there may be a branch in Tatton.
Avery
I know how banking works. Are you telling me our banks aren't also creaming off margin differentials ? The only difference between us and Italy is the mechansms HMG has open to it to bail them out through ripping off savings. Your "good news" on interest rates isn't good news for savers and as for pension funds....
There is no absolute good news, Mr. Brooke, just better news.
And your bread is better buttered in the UK than Italy.
But then if you want wine, women and song ... it is time to join Moniker and Tyson.
Ah mister Pole that is where we differ. There is no absolute good news, bit our own news could be so much better. You are happy with Tatton style apologism and managed decline, while I'm still heading for those sunny uplands Mr Cameron gave up on several years back.
Ebrington Hill is only 261 metres high, Mr. Brooke. George will be waving down to you from Shining Tor at more than twice the height.
At the last election there was a chance that Labour would have become the third party.
Not in terms of seats, which is my point...
If they had become the third party in votes, the seats would follow in due course - and the collapse would be dramatic, as it was for the Liberals. FPTP wouldn't preserve them in aspic for ever.
"But his real sin is worse. Fairly obviously, and very sincerely, Cameron dislikes and despises large sections of the traditional Tory party, from working class white Tories to conservatives in the shires, and he would far rather hang out with Helena Bonham Carter than any average Tory activist or MP, or indeed any average human: he's a quintessential metropolitan poseur."
The thing that first alerted me to Cameron was his photostunt implication that the working class belonged on the roads only as cyclists or chauffers.
Quick visit. Watched the Three Tories on Murnaghan. The really have a problem with UKIP because too many in the party come over like either Tim Loughton (condesceding 'divine right to rule' High Tory 'how dare these plebs vote against us type') or Dominic Raab (useless Westminster bubble focus group wonk). The thing is its not about what they say anymore. It doesn't get that far. Its just their personas, as soon as they start talking the eyes glaze over and the eyes roll (it's a cutural thing). The only one out of the three on show who may be able to connect with the UKIP supporters is Peter Bone and there is about as much chance of CCHQ allowing the likes of Bone to front any wooing campaign of UKIP supporters as Sam Cameron defecting too UKIP.
On other matters before Tories go gungho for jumping onto the AV bandwagon they should wonder why UKIP are in favour of it and whether UKIP might get an even bigger platform (at their cost) to fight from if AV were implemented.
Like so many things now the superb strategic positioning.by the Downing Street and CCHQ brainstrusts has left the Tories in a situation where whatever they do (and I include doing nothing ) is likely to have negative implications. The Tories truly are a party with nowhere to hide and nowhere to go at the moment........
"On standard of living, no one is promising that this will improve significantly during this government, The Bank of England has consistently stated that real standards of living will fall over a decade from the financial crisis and reach a fall of up to 20% before starting to recover
I predicted that 5 years ago when the recession began.
Nice to see the BoE finally catching up - they certainly weren't predicting that at the time.
Although I can't claim any economic brilliance - it was simply a matter noticing of how retail spending and industrial production had changed since 2000 and the associated increase in consumer debt.
I wonder why the BoE, Treasury etc weren't able to do likewise ?
AR the current economic collapse wasn't caused by Sun-reading blokes in white vans it was caused by chappies with Oxbridge degrees and MBAs from Harvard who thought they knew best but didn't.
"On standard of living, no one is promising that this will improve significantly during this government, The Bank of England has consistently stated that real standards of living will fall over a decade from the financial crisis and reach a fall of up to 20% before starting to recover
I predicted that 5 years ago when the recession began.
Nice to see the BoE finally catching up - they certainly weren't predicting that at the time.
Although I can't claim any economic brilliance - it was simply a matter noticing of how retail spending and industrial production had changed since 2000 and the associated increase in consumer debt.
I wonder why the BoE, Treasury etc weren't able to do likewise ?
To be fair to Merv, he has been banging on about falls in the real standing of living for some time, ar.
It is the politicians who have been keeping quiet, but not out of ignorance of the figures.
Still low mortgage rates have gone a long way to disguise the real pain.
There is no justification for giving those accused of sexual offences anonymity, any more than there is a justification for giving those accused of murder, wounding with intent or fraud anonymity. Once you accept the principle, there is no argument against effectively removing the entire criminal justice system from public scrutiny. Criminal offences are not private matters between victim and perpetrator. They are offences against the Queen, the law of the land and the community as a whole. It is only proper that they should be aired openly and publicly. The problem arises because (understandably, although without legitimate justification), complainants in sexual offence cases have been given anonymity, although quite why a party to a criminal case should get anonymity because a witness has it, has never been satisfactorily explained.
The problem arises because of the feeling that despite the principle of innocent until proven guilty, the feeling that it doesn't work out like that in practice.
For the most part, they knew what they were doing but nobody wanted to admit it. They still don't.
Fines will never be enough to discourage the institutions for which they work. They just pass the cost on to the consumer. When a few directors do chokey, we will know that things are beginning to change.
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
The big advantage of FPTP, Surby, is that it delivers a government.
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
some of us would welcome 2-5 % on our savings instead of 0.5% to support an unreformed banking sector and a clueless Chancellor.
Then you have to factor in the relative risks of holding funds in Italian Banks (ultimately underwritten by the EU like the Cyprus banks) and the UK banks (ultimately underwritten by HM Government like Northern Rock, RBOS and Lloyds).
And then there is exchange rate risk. That would have played in your favour over the past twelve months but not over the past two months.
All in all better to keep your money in the UK. Cheshire Building Society offers an instant cash access ISA account at a table topping 2.30% (with 1.8% bonus to end Oct 2014).
Looks like it is post only account but there may be a branch in Tatton.
Avery
I know how banking works. Are you telling me our banks aren't also creaming off margin differentials ? The only difference between us and Italy is the mechansms HMG has open to it to bail them out through ripping off savings. Your "good news" on interest rates isn't good news for savers and as for pension funds....
There is no absolute good news, Mr. Brooke, just better news.
And your bread is better buttered in the UK than Italy.
But then if you want wine, women and song ... it is time to join Moniker and Tyson.
Ah mister Pole that is where we differ. There is no absolute good news, bit our own news could be so much better. You are happy with Tatton style apologism and managed decline, while I'm still heading for those sunny uplands Mr Cameron gave up on several years back.
Ebrington Hill is only 261 metres high, Mr. Brooke. George will be waving down to you from Shining Tor at more than twice the height.
bad analogy Mr Pole doing things my way we have a lesser hill to climb and more time for wine women and song.
Here in Warwickshire we already have vineyards, fair maidens and festivals, we await only the break in the clouds that will come when GO departs.
Perhaps I should add that since Lib Dems have been such a disappointment in government effectively Labour have a further lifeline of existence. I suspect there will be a different realignment of the centre left in due course, probably involving the fragmentation of the left wing of the Tories and the Orange Bookers and those who don't want to march back to the Marxism of Ralph Miliband's drawing room within the Labour party - call it SDP mark 2. Lib Dems could well split into factions - Greens, protest voters already going with UKIP instead - etc. - just look at how their 2010 vote has scattered already.
"On standard of living, no one is promising that this will improve significantly during this government, The Bank of England has consistently stated that real standards of living will fall over a decade from the financial crisis and reach a fall of up to 20% before starting to recover
I predicted that 5 years ago when the recession began.
Nice to see the BoE finally catching up - they certainly weren't predicting that at the time.
Although I can't claim any economic brilliance - it was simply a matter noticing of how retail spending and industrial production had changed since 2000 and the associated increase in consumer debt.
I wonder why the BoE, Treasury etc weren't able to do likewise ?
Oh, they knew it, Richard, but didn't want to say it.
From the Tories point of view, PR^2 is the best way forward.
1. It preserves the exaggerative quality of FPTP, so majority governments remain possible. Specifically, every Tory majority since 1974 under FPTP would also have been a majority under PR^2. 2. It removes electoral bias completely. The Tories would have remained ahead in Feb 1974, and would have been in hung parliaments in Oct 1974 and 2005, and would not have been as crushed in the period 1997-2005. On average the Tories would have been docked just 7 seats over the past 40 years, while Labour would be 40 seats down. This disparity is a reflection of the pro-Labour bias under FPTP. 3. The LibDems and the smaller parties would probably go for it, as it is fairer to them, but keeps out micro parties. 4. Every vote from Lands End to John O'Groats is equally worth chasing for all parties, so turnout and voter engagement would improve. The voters would have a choice of candidate within party, also improving satisfaction with the political system. 5. Boundaries could more accurately define real communities.
If an arrest or trial is reported in such a way as to create the impression or innuendo that the accused is guilty before a conviction has been recorded, then that is criminal contempt, and should be punished by committal. The potential for misreporting is no reason for shrouding the criminal justice system in secrecy.
The problem arises because of the feeling that despite the principle of innocent until proven guilty, the feeling that it doesn't work out like that in practice.
On other matters before Tories go gungho for jumping onto the AV bandwagon they should wonder why UKIP are in favour of it and whether UKIP might get an even bigger platform (at their cost) to fight from if AV were implemented.
I wonder whether UKIP really feel they'll need a leg up from AV or PR in Parliamentary or local elections. They'll get that in the Euro elections anyway. They might have felt that way before this week's results, but now a bigger prize beckons. Trying to be a party of government with a Lib/Lab/Con/Green opposition under PR/AV would be an exercise in frustration. It would be short term gain for long term pain.
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
The big advantage of FPTP, Surby, is that it delivers a government.
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
some of us would welcome 2-5 % on our savings instead of 0.5% to support an unreformed banking sector and a clueless Chancellor.
Then you have to factor in the relative risks of holding funds in Italian Banks (ultimately underwritten by the EU like the Cyprus banks) and the UK banks (ultimately underwritten by HM Government like Northern Rock, RBOS and Lloyds).
And then there is exchange rate risk. That would have played in your favour over the past twelve months but not over the past two months.
All in all better to keep your money in the UK. Cheshire Building Society offers an instant cash access ISA account at a table topping 2.30% (with 1.8% bonus to end Oct 2014).
Looks like it is post only account but there may be a branch in Tatton.
Avery
I know how banking works. Are you telling me our banks aren't also creaming off margin differentials ? The only difference between us and Italy is the mechansms HMG has open to it to bail them out through ripping off savings. Your "good news" on interest rates isn't good news for savers and as for pension funds....
There is no absolute good news, Mr. Brooke, just better news.
And your bread is better buttered in the UK than Italy.
But then if you want wine, women and song ... it is time to join Moniker and Tyson.
Ah mister Pole that is where we differ. There is no absolute good news, bit our own news could be so much better. You are happy with Tatton style apologism and managed decline, while I'm still heading for those sunny uplands Mr Cameron gave up on several years back.
Ebrington Hill is only 261 metres high, Mr. Brooke. George will be waving down to you from Shining Tor at more than twice the height.
bad analogy Mr Pole doing things my way we have a lesser hill to climb and more time for wine women and song.
Here in Warwickshire we already have vineyards, fair maidens and festivals, we await only the break in the clouds that will come when GO departs.
"Break in the clouds", Mr. Brooke?
George will do better than that. He will part the waters to let his believers pass on dry land and then let them close to drown the followers and doubters.
"Still low mortgage rates have gone a long way to disguise the real pain."
Shall we ask OGH how much he is benefiting from low interest rates on his savings ?
I wonder if there's anyone here who's taken out an annuity recently and whether said annuity is higher or lower than previously predicted ?
The problem with the low interest rates, QE etc is that its stopping a lot of malinvestment from being liquidated which leads to the depression began dragged out longer and any consequent recovery weaker.
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
The big advantage of FPTP, Surby, is that it delivers a government.
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
some of us would welcome 2-5 % on our savings instead of 0.5% to support an unreformed banking sector and a clueless Chancellor.
Then you have to factor in the relative risks of holding funds in Italian Banks (ultimately underwritten by the EU like the Cyprus banks) and the UK banks (ultimately underwritten by HM Government like Northern Rock, RBOS and Lloyds).
And then there is exchange rate risk. That would have played in your favour over the past twelve months but not over the past two months.
All in all better to keep your money in the UK. Cheshire Building Society offers an instant cash access ISA account at a table topping 2.30% (with 1.8% bonus to end Oct 2014).
Looks like it is post only account but there may be a branch in Tatton.
Avery
I know how banking works. Are you telling me our banks aren't also creaming off margin differentials ? The only difference between us and Italy is the mechansms HMG has open to it to bail them out through ripping off savings. Your "good news" on interest rates isn't good news for savers and as for pension funds....
There is no absolute good news, Mr. Brooke, just better news.
And your bread is better buttered in the UK than Italy.
But then if you want wine, women and song ... it is time to join Moniker and Tyson.
Ah mister Pole that is where we differ. There is no absolute good news, bit our own news could be so much better. You are happy with Tatton style apologism and managed decline, while I'm still heading for those sunny uplands Mr Cameron gave up on several years back.
Ebrington Hill is only 261 metres high, Mr. Brooke. George will be waving down to you from Shining Tor at more than twice the height.
bad analogy Mr Pole doing things my way we have a lesser hill to climb and more time for wine women and song.
Here in Warwickshire we already have vineyards, fair maidens and festivals, we await only the break in the clouds that will come when GO departs.
"Break in the clouds", Mr. Brooke?
George will do better than that. He will part the waters to let his believers pass on dry land and then let them close to drown the followers and doubters.
It is all written down in a book somewhere.
The last chap who tried that didn't reach the promised land either. His place was taken by another, Boris or Nigel or something like that.
Syria: Syrian Deputy FM says that Israeli attacks are tantamount to a declaration of war.
This is a departure from previous Syrian reactions where they've noted and condemned Israeli actions then attempt to move on. It will be interesting to see if that rhetoric lasts.
If you are to believe that fantastic organ of virtuous news Russia Today, the casualty count after the Israeli strikes were considerable and largely in the form of one of Assad's chemical warfare units.
The mist and dust over the Israeli strikes is such that no-one quite knows or wants to admit that they may have been way more extensive that the Western media, Syrian or indeed Israeli officials care to say. There are unconfirmed reports from rebels that the Israelis attacked a number of notable military sites outside of the missile holding and transport locations. Sites on Mount Qaissoun, at Damascus International Airport, sites of some of Assad’s most reliable forces and Hizbollah occupied targets have all been rumored to have been hit. The airport strike looks to be confirmed and it’s logical as the Iranians have continued to use it as a transit despite occasional rebel attacks in its vicinity.
Put it this way, local reports have indicated that this wasn't half a dozen bombs falling on a single facility. Everyone should have seen it coming. The Israelis have barked out that they wouldn't sit about and they would stick to the redlines whatever Washington did or didn't do. Israeli involvement in the Syrian conflict has been shadowy. Despite the cold war status with Syrian the Israeli's have an extraordinary depth of intelligence reporting. There have been occasional rumours that there has been some assistance to the Jordanian based rebels in the Golan through medical support and indirectly provided intelligence.
If the scope of Israeli actions are fully confirmed the rebels have just been assisted in the capital in a straightforward manner because Assad's regime has taken a right punch to the head. It remains to be seen if this was a deliberate sub objective of Israeli action.
If you take a look at what is happening in the Middle East on a wider level there appears to be signs of a more concrete bloc alignment. On one side you have the traditional allies of Assad, Iran & Hizbollah though even there Assad is finding that the Iranian support is coming at a price of greater demands for heavy weapons transfer to Hizbollah something Bashar has been cautious about but may find increasingly out of his own hands. This is something that only serves to alert Israel more, the increasing presence of Iranian and Hizbollah forces creates a potentially independent operation in line with Iranian moves in recent months to prepare a ally base should Assad's fall.
To that end, there have been stories for months that the Iranians had effectively a series of sponsored Syrian units that whilst fighting for Assad know that their bread is ultimately buttered on a particular side if Bashar doesn’t make it. Even if he did, he'd be in hock to his friends in a bigger way than before.
On the other, Turkey and Israel's recent return to relations has a wider strategic context. Qatari-led suggestions of a small land swaps deal with the Palestinians hides a wider military association between Israel and a number of Gulf and regional states designed to pen Iran in.
If an arrest or trial is reported in such a way as to create the impression or innuendo that the accused is guilty before a conviction has been recorded, then that is criminal contempt, and should be punished by committal. The potential for misreporting is no reason for shrouding the criminal justice system in secrecy.
The problem arises because of the feeling that despite the principle of innocent until proven guilty, the feeling that it doesn't work out like that in practice.
It's less the media implying and more the public inferring that is the problem.
The essential problem is the stigma surrounding sexual offences (for both sides) so to protect both victim and accusee the original law provided for anonymity for both of them, but it was later changed to cover just the complainant.
"On standard of living, no one is promising that this will improve significantly during this government, The Bank of England has consistently stated that real standards of living will fall over a decade from the financial crisis and reach a fall of up to 20% before starting to recover
I predicted that 5 years ago when the recession began.
Nice to see the BoE finally catching up - they certainly weren't predicting that at the time.
Although I can't claim any economic brilliance - it was simply a matter noticing of how retail spending and industrial production had changed since 2000 and the associated increase in consumer debt.
I wonder why the BoE, Treasury etc weren't able to do likewise ?
ar
Here is an extract from a February 2008 Telegraph article based on the BoE's first Quarterly Bulletin of the year. It quotes both the report and Mervyn King's statements to the press following release.
Families have been warned to expect a decline in their standard of living as rising food and fuel prices place household finances under severe strain.
Britons have enjoyed a decade of high spending on luxury goods, holidays and second homes, fuelled by low interest rates, easy credit and near-record lows in living costs.
But Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, issued a stark warning that this period had come to an end.
In an uncharacteristically blunt statement, he said rising inflation and the fallout from global economic turmoil would take its toll on the spending power of British households.
Mr King's warning came during his most sombre assessment of the economy since he took over as Bank of England Governor five years ago.
"The higher level of energy and food prices is a genuine reduction in our standard of living relative to where it would otherwise have been," he said.
"This is because of the higher prices that all of us are having to pay."
...
Sending a warning to families who expect the value of their home to increase in the coming years, Mr King added: "Looking several years ahead, there’s no reason to expect house prices to be markedly above where they are now. It’s conceivable there might be falls in house prices."
Accurate though the predictions were at the time, I don't think even Mervyn King realised just how hard we would all be hit by the Brown-Darling recession. He at least both saw the pain coming and tried to warn us.
The problem with the low interest rates, QE etc is that its stopping a lot of malinvestment from being liquidated which leads to the depression began dragged out longer and any consequent recovery weaker.
Absolutey correct. I would even say that it is the cause of the depression as what would have been a short sharp correction has turned into a perpetual drag on growth.
Ah, the delights of good old British "One Person, One Vote".
To be fair, the Lib Dems did not vote for FPTP. You should ask the Master Strategists, why they blew up AV and consequently, derailed boundary changes. No answers yet.
Syria: Syrian Deputy FM says that Israeli attacks are tantamount to a declaration of war.
This is a departure from previous Syrian reactions where they've noted and condemned Israeli actions then attempt to move on. It will be interesting to see if that rhetoric lasts.
If you are to believe that fantastic organ of virtuous news Russia Today, the casualty count after the Israeli strikes were considerable and largely in the form of one of Assad's chemical warfare units.
The mist and dust over the Israeli strikes is such that no-one quite knows or wants to admit that they may have been way more extensive that the Western media, Syrian or indeed Israeli officials care to say. There are unconfirmed reports from rebels that the Israelis attacked a number of notable military sites outside of the missile holding and transport locations. Sites on Mount Qaissoun, at Damascus International Airport, sites of some of Assad’s most reliable forces and Hizbollah occupied targets have all been rumored to have been hit. The airport strike looks to be confirmed and it’s logical as the Iranians have continued to use it as a transit despite occasional rebel attacks in its vicinity.
Put it this way, local reports have indicated that this wasn't half a dozen bombs falling on a single facility. Everyone should have seen it coming. The Israelis have barked out that they wouldn't sit about and they would stick to the redlines whatever Washington did or didn't do. Israeli involvement in the Syrian conflict has been shadowy. Despite the cold war status with Syrian the Israeli's have an extraordinary depth of intelligence reporting. There have been occasional rumours that there has been some assistance to the Jordanian based rebels in the Golan through medical support and indirectly provided intelligence.
If the scope of Israeli actions are fully confirmed the rebels have just been assisted in the capital in a straightforward manner because Assad's regime has taken a right punch to the head. It remains to be seen if this was a deliberate sub objective of Israeli action.
If you take a look at what is happening in the Middle East on a wider level there appears to be signs of a more concrete bloc alignment. On one side you have the traditional allies of Assad, Iran & Hizbollah though even there Assad is finding that the Iranian support is coming at a price of greater demands for heavy weapons transfer to Hizbollah something Bashar has been cautious about but may find increasingly out of his own hands. This is something that only serves to alert Israel more, the increasing presence of Iranian and Hizbollah forces creates a potentially independent operation in line with Iranian moves in recent months to prepare a ally base should Assad's fall.
To that end, there have been stories for months that the Iranians had effectively a series of sponsored Syrian units that whilst fighting for Assad know that their bread is ultimately buttered on a particular side if Bashar doesn’t make it. Even if he did, he'd be in hock to his friends in a bigger way than before.
On the other, Turkey and Israel's recent return to relations has a wider strategic context. Qatari-led suggestions of a small land swaps deal with the Palestinians hides a wider military association between Israel and a number of Gulf and regional states designed to pen Iran in.
Accurate though the predictions were at the time, I don't think even Mervyn King realised just how hard we would all be hit by the Brown-Darling recession.
Brown-Darling recession: interesting choice of phrase. Is Central Office predicting Darling replacing Balls in the run-up to the election?
If an arrest or trial is reported in such a way as to create the impression or innuendo that the accused is guilty before a conviction has been recorded, then that is criminal contempt, and should be punished by committal. The potential for misreporting is no reason for shrouding the criminal justice system in secrecy.
The problem arises because of the feeling that despite the principle of innocent until proven guilty, the feeling that it doesn't work out like that in practice.
Also just to be clear, the anonymity doesn't mean the case is heard in private, that the defendant can't be named in court, or anything like that. It is specifically a ban on the media publishing the name.
"Still low mortgage rates have gone a long way to disguise the real pain."
Shall we ask OGH how much he is benefiting from low interest rates on his savings ?
I wonder if there's anyone here who's taken out an annuity recently and whether said annuity is higher or lower than previously predicted ?
The problem with the low interest rates, QE etc is that its stopping a lot of malinvestment from being liquidated which leads to the depression began dragged out longer and any consequent recovery weaker.
It is a lesser of two evils choice, ar.
As for QE the BoE have not been that profligate over the last year. Only £50 bn of the £350 bn has been authorised (excluding the small amount of repayments ploughed back which are less than £10 bn). It also looks as though there will be no further QE 2 given the current recovery underway.
There will however be further monetary interventions in support of bank restructuring and capitalisation, in particular partial buyouts of the two part nationalised banking groups' mortgage books.
There is no doubt that you are right about QE causing a slower recovery but this is the price that the UK is paying for increased employment and the avoidance of austerity's sharp edges.
Far better the UK approach than that imposed on the peripheral Eurozone countries. At this point in the economic cycle employment is considered to be a higher priority than productivity: politics trumps economics.
Are there fair maidens and festivals to distract you from the gloom at Normanby Hall?
Just to remind us that the Tories stabbed the Lib Dems to demolish AV and keep FPTP. The famous Cam & Oz strategy
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
The big advantage of FPTP, Surby, is that it delivers a government.
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
some of us would welcome 2-5 % on our savings instead of 0.5% to support an unreformed banking sector and a clueless Chancellor.
Then you have to factor in the relative risks of holding funds in Italian Banks (ultimately underwritten by the EU like the Cyprus banks) and the UK banks (ultimately underwritten by HM Government like Northern Rock, RBOS and Lloyds).
And then there is exchange rate risk. That would have played in your favour over the past twelve months but not over the past two months.
All in all better to keep your money in the UK. Cheshire Building Society offers an instant cash access ISA account at a table topping 2.30% (with 1.8% bonus to end Oct 2014).
Looks like it is post only account but there may be a branch in Tatton.
Avery
I know how banking works. Are you telling me our banks aren't also creaming off margin differentials ? The only difference between us and Italy is the mechansms HMG has open to it to bail them out through ripping off savings. Your "good news" on interest rates isn't good news for savers and as for pension funds....
There is no absolute good news, Mr. Brooke, just better news.
And your bread is better buttered in the UK than Italy.
But then if you want wine, women and song ... it is time to join Moniker and Tyson.
Ah mister Pole that is where we differ. There is no absolute good news, bit our own news could be so much better. You are happy with Tatton style apologism and managed decline, while I'm still heading for those sunny uplands Mr Cameron gave up on several years back.
Ebrington Hill is only 261 metres high, Mr. Brooke. George will be waving down to you from Shining Tor at more than twice the height.
bad analogy Mr Pole doing things my way we have a lesser hill to climb and more time for wine women and song.
Here in Warwickshire we already have vineyards, fair maidens and festivals, we await only the break in the clouds that will come when GO departs.
"Break in the clouds", Mr. Brooke?
George will do better than that. He will part the waters to let his believers pass on dry land and then let them close to drown the followers and doubters.
It is all written down in a book somewhere.
The last chap who tried that didn't reach the promised land either. His place was taken by another, Boris or Nigel or something like that.
Ah, the delights of good old British "One Person, One Vote".
To be fair, the Lib Dems did not vote for FPTP. You should ask the Master Strategists, why they blew up AV and consequently, derailed boundary changes. No answers yet.
It was far more than the tories that voted to keep FPTP. It was 65% of those who voted, so must have included large numbers of voters for other parties.
The spat over keeping unequal constituencies did have some roots in the AV debate, but shows that all parties including the LibDems do not want fair votes. Similarly it took more than a few tory rebels to vote down HoL reform, particularly the Labour party. What they want is a system that favours themselves, so cannot agree amongst themselves.
Accurate though the predictions were at the time, I don't think even Mervyn King realised just how hard we would all be hit by the Brown-Darling recession.
Brown-Darling recession: interesting choice of phrase. Is Central Office predicting Darling replacing Balls in the run-up to the election?
Who knows,DJL?
Once Darling has saved Scotland from self-harm, there will be no limit to how far he might climb.
"The spat over keeping unequal constituencies did have some roots in the AV debate, but shows that all parties including the LibDems do not want fair votes."
Voting against the gerrymandering of constituencies is a reasonable sign that a party probably DOES want fair votes. When you've got every single opposition MP (save Naomi Long) plus quite a few of your own side voting against you, that probably ought to tell you something.
"The spat over keeping unequal constituencies did have some roots in the AV debate, but shows that all parties including the LibDems do not want fair votes."
Voting against the gerrymandering of constituencies is a reasonable sign that a party probably DOES want fair votes. When you've got every single opposition MP (save Naomi Long) plus quite a few of your own side voting against you, that probably ought to tell you something.
I didn't get the impression that the AV spat was over the Tories opposition; it was the strident nature of the anti campaign that caused the bother.
And of course Labour were just as bad; a leaflet in this area advised voters to "Give Nick Clegg a bloody nose!"
"On standard of living, no one is promising that this will improve significantly during this government, The Bank of England has consistently stated that real standards of living will fall over a decade from the financial crisis and reach a fall of up to 20% before starting to recover
I predicted that 5 years ago when the recession began.
Nice to see the BoE finally catching up - they certainly weren't predicting that at the time.
Although I can't claim any economic brilliance - it was simply a matter noticing of how retail spending and industrial production had changed since 2000 and the associated increase in consumer debt.
I wonder why the BoE, Treasury etc weren't able to do likewise ?
Oh, they knew it, Richard, but didn't want to say it.
We knew that for every pound spent by the govt, only 75p was raised in tax. To get back to a balanced budget we would have to move towards living within our means, both as individuals and as a nation. It was obvious that living standards were going have to fall as part of the realignment.
Anyone who didnt understand that was either foolish or in Balls office, or probably both.
On other matters before Tories go gungho for jumping onto the AV bandwagon they should wonder why UKIP are in favour of it and whether UKIP might get an even bigger platform (at their cost) to fight from if AV were implemented.
I wonder whether UKIP really feel they'll need a leg up from AV or PR in Parliamentary or local elections. They'll get that in the Euro elections anyway. They might have felt that way before this week's results, but now a bigger prize beckons. Trying to be a party of government with a Lib/Lab/Con/Green opposition under PR/AV would be an exercise in frustration. It would be short term gain for long term pain.
The thing is Farage has also talked of it potentially being a two vote election much as the Tory leadership contest and French presidential contests. In that way it provides for the best of all worlds (albeit with an additional cost overhead)
Imagine the scenario in all those County council seats on Thursday where UKIP came second behind the Tories (and Labour for that matter) and there was a run off vote between 1st and 2nd.......
"The spat over keeping unequal constituencies did have some roots in the AV debate, but shows that all parties including the LibDems do not want fair votes."
Voting against the gerrymandering of constituencies is a reasonable sign that a party probably DOES want fair votes. When you've got every single opposition MP (save Naomi Long) plus quite a few of your own side voting against you, that probably ought to tell you something.
Gerrymandering is a long political tradition, but equal constituency sizes is not gerry mandering, it is fixing current gerrymandering.
Hopefully Scottish independence will allow the next Westminster parliament to equalise constituency sizes, with the loss of 60 seats as a bonus.
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking UK MP Nigel Evans expresses "incredulity" over allegations of rape and sexual assault of two men "one of whom I continued to socialise with"
If he can prove that to police satisfaction, there'll be no by-election. It seems that Evans has been keeping vipers close to his bossom.
I am looking forward to Carlotta presuming his guilt , calling for him to be investigated by his party and wanting and praising a witch hunt by the media . Oh he is a Conservative not a Lib Dem , so we will not see that .
Have complaints been made about him to his party, and ignored for years?
We don't know yet , we will have to see what a media witch hunt turns up if there is one .
Given that the police are involved, that would be rather inappropriate, don't you think?
On other matters before Tories go gungho for jumping onto the AV bandwagon they should wonder why UKIP are in favour of it and whether UKIP might get an even bigger platform (at their cost) to fight from if AV were implemented.
I wonder whether UKIP really feel they'll need a leg up from AV or PR in Parliamentary or local elections. They'll get that in the Euro elections anyway. They might have felt that way before this week's results, but now a bigger prize beckons. Trying to be a party of government with a Lib/Lab/Con/Green opposition under PR/AV would be an exercise in frustration. It would be short term gain for long term pain.
The thing is Farage has also talked of it potentially being a two vote election much as the Tory leadership contest and French presidential contests. In that way it provides for the best of all worlds (albeit with an additional cost overhead)
Imagine the scenario in all those County council seats on Thursday where UKIP came second behind the Tories (and Labour for that matter) and there was a run off vote between 1st and 2nd.......
A two stage election would get rid of a lot of the gaming for the runoff. That is a proposal that may be able to get cross party support.
Syria: Syrian Deputy FM says that Israeli attacks are tantamount to a declaration of war.
This is a departure from previous Syrian reactions where they've noted and condemned Israeli actions then attempt to move on. It will be interesting to see if that rhetoric lasts.
If you are to believe that fantastic organ of virtuous news Russia Today, the casualty count after the Israeli strikes were considerable and largely in the form of one of Assad's chemical warfare units.
The mist and dust over the Israeli strikes is such that no-one quite knows or wants to admit that they may have been way more extensive that the Western media, Syrian or indeed Israeli officials care to say. There are unconfirmed reports from rebels that the Israelis attacked a number of notable military sites outside of the missile holding and transport locations. Sites on Mount Qaissoun, at Damascus International Airport, sites of some of Assad’s most reliable forces and Hizbollah occupied targets have all been rumored to have been hit. The airport strike looks to be confirmed and it’s logical as the Iranians have continued to use it as a transit despite occasional rebel attacks in its vicinity.
Put it this way, local reports have indicated that this wasn't half a dozen bombs falling on a single facility. Everyone should have seen it coming. The Israelis have barked out that they wouldn't sit about and they would stick to the redlines whatever Washington did or didn't do. Israeli involvement in the Syrian conflict has been shadowy. Despite the cold war status with Syrian the Israeli's have an extraordinary depth of intelligence reporting. There have been occasional rumours that there has been some assistance to the Jordanian based rebels in the Golan through medical support and indirectly provided intelligence.
If the scope of Israeli actions are fully confirmed the rebels have just been assisted in the capital in a straightforward manner because Assad's regime has taken a right punch to the head. It remains to be seen if this was a deliberate sub objective of Israeli action.
If you take a look at what is happening in the Middle East on a wider level there appears to be signs of a more concrete bloc alignment. On one side you have the traditional allies of Assad, Iran & Hizbollah though even there Assad is finding that the Iranian support is coming at a price of greater demands for heavy weapons transfer to Hizbollah something Bashar has been cautious about but may find increasingly out of his own hands. This is something that only serves to alert Israel more, the increasing presence of Iranian and Hizbollah forces creates a potentially independent operation in line with Iranian moves in recent months to prepare a ally base should Assad's fall.
To that end, there have been stories for months that the Iranians had effectively a series of sponsored Syrian units that whilst fighting for Assad know that their bread is ultimately buttered on a particular side if Bashar doesn’t make it. Even if he did, he'd be in hock to his friends in a bigger way than before.
On the other, Turkey and Israel's recent return to relations has a wider strategic context. Qatari-led suggestions of a small land swaps deal with the Palestinians hides a wider military association between Israel and a number of Gulf and regional states designed to pen Iran in.
Israel attacks Syria. You seem very pleased !
And you are very wrong. I'm just very unhappy that the West sat on its hands when a more concerted approach earlier may have helped prevent this mess.
"The current constituency size inequality favours the Labour and celtic parties"
The current system demonstrably does not favour the SNP. They've been underrepresented at Westminster for most of their history. Currently they have roughly the correct proportion of Scottish MPs, although they're only third in terms of seats when they should be second.
If so, I think it's a terrible system - worse than FPTP in many ways. Small parties that are strong enough to win seats under FPTP (which means they're doing pretty well by any standards) would be completely wiped out.
Comments
What are Labour's spending plans ?
A piece of paper with a hurriedly scrawled " IOU ". , plus a juvenile crack about " there's no money left." at the bottom.
1.
Can anyone see an example of where the labour vote share fell in any of the northen/midland marginals?
I've done nearly 40 marginal seats and labours vote share has either maintained or increased. They are even winning seats like leicestershire nw which saw a 18% swing despite low turnout.
If Labours share of the vote is maintaining or increasing in northern/midlands does it matter if labour dont win in the south?
1. With UKIP on the charge, AV possible could have given the Tories an absolute majority;
2. They would also have got boundary changes.
Says a lot about the strategists.
You are just doing what Cameron and Clarke did, but nevermind. The seven stages of grief in action yet again.
Im not sure what the point of you being on here is most of the time. You constantly insult people whose crime is not to be a socialist like yourself, and your manner is unlikely to recruit any floating voters to Labour even on the occasions that you make a valid point.
Why dont you stick to trying to trick mug punters into betting 3/1 shots at EVS ?
EdM is a bit useless, and will be found wanting in the GE campaign.
Cameron is, well, do I need to spell it out?
Clegg and his party are near-doomed
Farage and his party build on the momentum and carry on building.
So what would this do to the Westminster seating arrangements? And for the right to govern?
UKIP 32%
Labour 30%
Cons 26%
LibDems 7%
Other 5%
"Whether innocent or guilty, Evans’ political career is effectively over. He will probably have to resign as Deputy Speaker, and perhaps even as an MP, before guilt is proven or disproven."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/the-coalition-should-have-extended-anonymity-in-rape-cases/
So, by-election still on?
Look at Italy to see what happens when clowns capture 25% of the vote.
Which is fine if all the electorate wants is a laugh, but in today's economic climate the laughs have to be paid for.with a two to five percent premium on borrowing costs.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdGpwR2JEcndFcDRqbDNuY1I5ZDNrWGc&usp=sharing
Which is probably why today's YouGov has (net) secrecy for
Sexual Offence
arrest: +59
charge: -2
Murder
arrest: +39
charge: -20
The public recognise their own problem of 'no smoke without fire'.
Labour is very hungry to return to power.
I support the idea of giving accused people anonymity at least until charged - but I'm puzzled that the campaign for this focuses on rape cases. If you're accused of grevious bodily harm or rape, aren't the issues almost exactly the same? OK, you get cases where there's an argument about consent, and few people consent to GBH, but the principle is surely that if you're presumed innocent and the police haven't charged you with anything, you're entitled not to have your name smeared across the press. And that applies to everything from alleged shoplifting to alleged rape to alleged terrorism - just as the public says in the YouGov poll.
If you weren't a leading political blogger would they have bothered.
"It depends how keen the Tories are to keep her in the Commons."
Ah....so Labour a decent bet at 1/2 to regain Broxtowe?
Shadsy beware!
1. Will always be either the largest or second largest party.
2. Often will be the largest party even with only the second or third largest share of the vote.
Great, eh?
With friends like that who needs enemies?
What is at stake is not tomorrow’s headlines, but Britain’s place in the world for decades to come. If doing the right thing means sacrifices, tough decisions, a spell of unpopularity – so be it. Other politicians can promise easy ways out of the mess if they wish; the Conservative Party will keep working in Britain’s national interest, however long and grinding and painstaking that work may be.
Politics can be an endless roller-coaster of ups and downs but it is vital to remember this: the ultimate goal is not to score in the headlines or grasp for another point or two in the polls, but to serve your country the best you can and act in Britain’s long-term interest. That has always been the Conservative Party way – and we are sticking to it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/william-hague/10037576/William-Hague-If-doing-the-right-thing-means-a-spell-of-unpopularity-so-be-it.html
The Italian government pays 4% to borrow funds but Italian banks pay 0% on current accounts and 0.8% on savings accounts (avg.). See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/deposit-interest-rate-percent-wb-data.html
Then you have to factor in the relative risks of holding funds in Italian Banks (ultimately underwritten by the EU like the Cyprus banks) and the UK banks (ultimately underwritten by HM Government like Northern Rock, RBOS and Lloyds).
And then there is exchange rate risk. That would have played in your favour over the past twelve months but not over the past two months.
All in all better to keep your money in the UK. Cheshire Building Society offers an instant cash access ISA account at a table topping 2.30% (with 1.8% bonus to end Oct 2014).
Looks like it is post only account but there may be a branch in Tatton.
Where serious crimes are involved such that victims and witnesses may feel intimidated, it may greatly help them to know who has been arrested.
The LibDems reneged on boundary changes on a weak excuse after losing HoL reforms.
The only backstabbers were the LibDems.
Once charged then it is policy to reveal the name(s).
The issues are therefore:
a) Once charged with rape, should the name of the person be kept confidential, and
b) How to prevent the names of those arrested from leaking
It may be that in the recent case the MP chose to get his statement in the media before his arrest was leaked to the press.
I know how banking works. Are you telling me our banks aren't also creaming off margin differentials ? The only difference between us and Italy is the mechansms HMG has open to it to bail them out through ripping off savings. Your "good news" on interest rates isn't good news for savers and as for pension funds....
And your bread is better buttered in the UK than Italy.
But then if you want better wine, women and song ... it is time to join Moniker and Tyson in the sun.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/03/labour-leave-ed-behind/
Good for Labour, not so good for Ed.....
"On standard of living, no one is promising that this will improve significantly during this government, The Bank of England has consistently stated that real standards of living will fall over a decade from the financial crisis and reach a fall of up to 20% before starting to recover
I predicted that 5 years ago when the recession began.
Nice to see the BoE finally catching up - they certainly weren't predicting that at the time.
Although I can't claim any economic brilliance - it was simply a matter noticing of how retail spending and industrial production had changed since 2000 and the associated increase in consumer debt.
I wonder why the BoE, Treasury etc weren't able to do likewise ?
If they had become the third party in votes, the seats would follow in due course - and the collapse would be dramatic, as it was for the Liberals. FPTP wouldn't preserve them in aspic for ever.
"But his real sin is worse. Fairly obviously, and very sincerely, Cameron dislikes and despises large sections of the traditional Tory party, from working class white Tories to conservatives in the shires, and he would far rather hang out with Helena Bonham Carter than any average Tory activist or MP, or indeed any average human: he's a quintessential metropolitan poseur."
The thing that first alerted me to Cameron was his photostunt implication that the working class belonged on the roads only as cyclists or chauffers.
On other matters before Tories go gungho for jumping onto the AV bandwagon they should wonder why UKIP are in favour of it and whether UKIP might get an even bigger platform (at their cost) to fight from if AV were implemented.
Like so many things now the superb strategic positioning.by the Downing Street and CCHQ brainstrusts has left the Tories in a situation where whatever they do (and I include doing nothing ) is likely to have negative implications. The Tories truly are a party with nowhere to hide and nowhere to go at the moment........
It is the politicians who have been keeping quiet, but not out of ignorance of the figures.
Still low mortgage rates have gone a long way to disguise the real pain.
"...Who thought they knew best but didn't. "
It isn't even that good.
For the most part, they knew what they were doing but nobody wanted to admit it. They still don't.
Fines will never be enough to discourage the institutions for which they work. They just pass the cost on to the consumer. When a few directors do chokey, we will know that things are beginning to change.
Here in Warwickshire we already have vineyards, fair maidens and festivals, we await only the break in the clouds that will come when GO departs.
1. It preserves the exaggerative quality of FPTP, so majority governments remain possible. Specifically, every Tory majority since 1974 under FPTP would also have been a majority under PR^2.
2. It removes electoral bias completely. The Tories would have remained ahead in Feb 1974, and would have been in hung parliaments in Oct 1974 and 2005, and would not have been as crushed in the period 1997-2005. On average the Tories would have been docked just 7 seats over the past 40 years, while Labour would be 40 seats down. This disparity is a reflection of the pro-Labour bias under FPTP.
3. The LibDems and the smaller parties would probably go for it, as it is fairer to them, but keeps out micro parties.
4. Every vote from Lands End to John O'Groats is equally worth chasing for all parties, so turnout and voter engagement would improve. The voters would have a choice of candidate within party, also improving satisfaction with the political system.
5. Boundaries could more accurately define real communities.
George will do better than that. He will part the waters to let his believers pass on dry land and then let them close to drown the followers and doubters.
It is all written down in a book somewhere.
Shall we ask OGH how much he is benefiting from low interest rates on his savings ?
I wonder if there's anyone here who's taken out an annuity recently and whether said annuity is higher or lower than previously predicted ?
The problem with the low interest rates, QE etc is that its stopping a lot of malinvestment from being liquidated which leads to the depression began dragged out longer and any consequent recovery weaker.
This is a departure from previous Syrian reactions where they've noted and condemned Israeli actions then attempt to move on. It will be interesting to see if that rhetoric lasts.
If you are to believe that fantastic organ of virtuous news Russia Today, the casualty count after the Israeli strikes were considerable and largely in the form of one of Assad's chemical warfare units.
The mist and dust over the Israeli strikes is such that no-one quite knows or wants to admit that they may have been way more extensive that the Western media, Syrian or indeed Israeli officials care to say. There are unconfirmed reports from rebels that the Israelis attacked a number of notable military sites outside of the missile holding and transport locations. Sites on Mount Qaissoun, at Damascus International Airport, sites of some of Assad’s most reliable forces and Hizbollah occupied targets have all been rumored to have been hit. The airport strike looks to be confirmed and it’s logical as the Iranians have continued to use it as a transit despite occasional rebel attacks in its vicinity.
Put it this way, local reports have indicated that this wasn't half a dozen bombs falling on a single facility. Everyone should have seen it coming. The Israelis have barked out that they wouldn't sit about and they would stick to the redlines whatever Washington did or didn't do.
Israeli involvement in the Syrian conflict has been shadowy. Despite the cold war status with Syrian the Israeli's have an extraordinary depth of intelligence reporting. There have been occasional rumours that there has been some assistance to the Jordanian based rebels in the Golan through medical support and indirectly provided intelligence.
If the scope of Israeli actions are fully confirmed the rebels have just been assisted in the capital in a straightforward manner because Assad's regime has taken a right punch to the head. It remains to be seen if this was a deliberate sub objective of Israeli action.
If you take a look at what is happening in the Middle East on a wider level there appears to be signs of a more concrete bloc alignment. On one side you have the traditional allies of Assad, Iran & Hizbollah though even there Assad is finding that the Iranian support is coming at a price of greater demands for heavy weapons transfer to Hizbollah something Bashar has been cautious about but may find increasingly out of his own hands. This is something that only serves to alert Israel more, the increasing presence of Iranian and Hizbollah forces creates a potentially independent operation in line with Iranian moves in recent months to prepare a ally base should Assad's fall.
To that end, there have been stories for months that the Iranians had effectively a series of sponsored Syrian units that whilst fighting for Assad know that their bread is ultimately buttered on a particular side if Bashar doesn’t make it. Even if he did, he'd be in hock to his friends in a bigger way than before.
On the other, Turkey and Israel's recent return to relations has a wider strategic context. Qatari-led suggestions of a small land swaps deal with the Palestinians hides a wider military association between Israel and a number of Gulf and regional states designed to pen Iran in.
The essential problem is the stigma surrounding sexual offences (for both sides) so to protect both victim and accusee the original law provided for anonymity for both of them, but it was later changed to cover just the complainant.
Here is an extract from a February 2008 Telegraph article based on the BoE's first Quarterly Bulletin of the year. It quotes both the report and Mervyn King's statements to the press following release.
Families have been warned to expect a decline in their standard of living as rising food and fuel prices place household finances under severe strain.
Britons have enjoyed a decade of high spending on luxury goods, holidays and second homes, fuelled by low interest rates, easy credit and near-record lows in living costs.
But Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, issued a stark warning that this period had come to an end.
In an uncharacteristically blunt statement, he said rising inflation and the fallout from global economic turmoil would take its toll on the spending power of British households.
Mr King's warning came during his most sombre assessment of the economy since he took over as Bank of England Governor five years ago.
"The higher level of energy and food prices is a genuine reduction in our standard of living relative to where it would otherwise have been," he said.
"This is because of the higher prices that all of us are having to pay."
...
Sending a warning to families who expect the value of their home to increase in the coming years, Mr King added: "Looking several years ahead, there’s no reason to expect house prices to be markedly above where they are now. It’s conceivable there might be falls in house prices."
Accurate though the predictions were at the time, I don't think even Mervyn King realised just how hard we would all be hit by the Brown-Darling recession. He at least both saw the pain coming and tried to warn us.
Lib Dems - 13% of the vote, 50 seats
Ah, the delights of good old British "One Person, One Vote".
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/eoghan-harris/taking-adams-through-the-wasteland-of-ira-atrocities-29243077.html
I hope George W Bush and Tony Blair get the same treatment someday, but I'm not holding my breath.
As for QE the BoE have not been that profligate over the last year. Only £50 bn of the £350 bn has been authorised (excluding the small amount of repayments ploughed back which are less than £10 bn). It also looks as though there will be no further QE 2 given the current recovery underway.
There will however be further monetary interventions in support of bank restructuring and capitalisation, in particular partial buyouts of the two part nationalised banking groups' mortgage books.
There is no doubt that you are right about QE causing a slower recovery but this is the price that the UK is paying for increased employment and the avoidance of austerity's sharp edges.
Far better the UK approach than that imposed on the peripheral Eurozone countries. At this point in the economic cycle employment is considered to be a higher priority than productivity: politics trumps economics.
Are there fair maidens and festivals to distract you from the gloom at Normanby Hall?
You are going all orthodox on us, Mr. Brooke.
The spat over keeping unequal constituencies did have some roots in the AV debate, but shows that all parties including the LibDems do not want fair votes. Similarly it took more than a few tory rebels to vote down HoL reform, particularly the Labour party. What they want is a system that favours themselves, so cannot agree amongst themselves.
Once Darling has saved Scotland from self-harm, there will be no limit to how far he might climb.
Voting against the gerrymandering of constituencies is a reasonable sign that a party probably DOES want fair votes. When you've got every single opposition MP (save Naomi Long) plus quite a few of your own side voting against you, that probably ought to tell you something.
And of course Labour were just as bad; a leaflet in this area advised voters to "Give Nick Clegg a bloody nose!"
Anyone who didnt understand that was either foolish or in Balls office, or probably both.
Imagine the scenario in all those County council seats on Thursday where UKIP came second behind the Tories (and Labour for that matter) and there was a run off vote between 1st and 2nd.......
Hopefully Scottish independence will allow the next Westminster parliament to equalise constituency sizes, with the loss of 60 seats as a bonus.
So it's just pure coincidence that the Conservatives, and the Conservatives alone, were pushing a change that would benefit the Conservatives?
I do love a good coincidence.
But it should be easy to pass when Scots no longer have a say in Westminster.
6. Around 73% of voters would be represented locally by a party they actually voted for, as opposed to just 47% in 2010 under FPTP.
The current system demonstrably does not favour the SNP. They've been underrepresented at Westminster for most of their history. Currently they have roughly the correct proportion of Scottish MPs, although they're only third in terms of seats when they should be second.
Labour introspection at its best.
http://www.jdawiseman.com/papers/electsys/pr2.html
If so, I think it's a terrible system - worse than FPTP in many ways. Small parties that are strong enough to win seats under FPTP (which means they're doing pretty well by any standards) would be completely wiped out.
Or is power a sufficient end in itself?