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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly two years to the day after the AV referendum this is how Rallings and Thrasher project GE2015
The chart is based on Rallings & Thrasher data for today’s Sunday Times which has the pair’s own national equivalent vote share projections based on their detailed analysis of the outcome on Thursday. This has CON 26%, LAB 29%, LD 13%, Ukip 22%
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In other words, the R & T projection above is ultra-mega-double-plus-nincombalderdash-with-knobs-on.
In real life, UKIP is of course likely to get not 22%, but only 3% or 5% or 8% if they are very lucky.
If so you can hardly complain
I don't know about anyone else but I'm totally confused about all the national numbers I've seen related to this election, and have no idea what they mean on their own terms, let alone what they'd mean for an actual general election.
Maybe the vote share numbers already have some kind of adjustment in them for the difference between local elections and national ones?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/52/United_Kingdom_AV_referendum_area_results.svg
"So there is still much to play for. Even if next year’s referendum does not lead to the early departure of Scotland from the UK, the vote could have big long-term consequences. Salmond’s dream may not come true this time round. But he is just 58 and looks to be in excellent health. If he can lift the Yes vote to 40 per cent next year, then independence could still happen in his lifetime."
http://www.scotsman.com/scotland-on-sunday/opinion/comment/peter-kellner-supporters-of-devo-max-hold-the-key-1-2920663
when things are this split only a small change could be the difference between no seats and 100s
Though to be fair the lib dem 50 is vastly amusing. Somehow I doubt it. A party that finishes behind the BNP in South Shields might just be in far more trouble than this projection indicates. The importance of vote distribution notwithstanding. I also seem to recall that the Rallings and Thrasher prediction/projection for the locals didn't actually pan out either. They were close(ish) but not exactly on the money.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2013/may/03/local-elections-results-full
EDIT And it still isn't a total votes tally. Hmm.. I shall keep looking
Nice of the BBC and the papers to go to all this trouble analyzing the data for us, but it would be even nicer if they could actually tell us what it was...
if
CON 26%, LAB 29%, LD 13%, Ukip 22%
is accurate then it's not going to take big shifts to create big shifts in number of seats so the FPTP sucks thing seems a bit silly
Best bet seems to be to search on a council by council basis as far as I can tell.
Do you think that David Cameron is doing well
or badly as Prime Minister?
Con Voters: Well 88 Badly 9
Do you think Ed Miliband is doing well or badly
as leader of the Labour party?
LAB Voters: Well; 64 Badly 30
Do you think that Nick Clegg is doing well or
badly as leader of the Liberal Democrats?
LD Voters. Well 65 Badly 30
Thinking about Ed Miliband's leadership of the
Labour party, do you think he...
Has or has not provided an effective opposition
to the government
Lab Voters. Has 49 Has Not 41 DK 10
Has or has not made it clear what he stands
for?
Lab Voters Has 45 Has not 44 DK 11
Has been too close to the Trade Unions, too
distant, or has got the balance about right?
Lab Voters. Close 9 Distant 15, Right 52 DK 25
Would or would not be up to the job of Prime
Minister?
Lab Voters. Would 62 Would Not 16 DK 21
The Westminster reactions to changes in polling, or by-election results, are going to be very entertaining.
Cabinet Minister Ken Clarke recently described
UKIP as a "collection of clowns or indignant,
angry people". Do you think this is fair or unfair
description?
Cons:: Fair 29 Unfair 57 DK 14
LAB: Fair 43; Unfair 40 DK 16
LD: Fair 51; Unfair 41; DK 8
Politically, how well or badly do you think David
Cameron is responding to the increased
support for UKIP?
Con Voters: Well 40 Badly 37 DK 23
None of this makes sense - I'm beginning to suspect you guys couldn't even be arsed to hold elections this year, so you just made up some seat totals to fit in with the prevailing media narrative, then fudged in some meaningless "projections" instead of announcing actual vote shares so that nobody would catch you out on the specifics.
Bristol gives votes cast and percentages. Bucks and Cornwall don't. Herts gives votes cast for candidates and changes.
http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionPercentage=true&ElectionId=67
http://www.buckscc.gov.uk/moderngov/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=203&RPID=73072778
https://democracy.cornwall.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=15&RPID=4025451
http://www.hertsdirect.org/actweb/election/
Agree about loss of LD seats in Scotland, though.
Someone was posting yesterday about Tory tactical voting; could that happen such places as Burnley and Rochdale? Used to in Lancashire years ago, although that was probably a hangover from the pre-war National government.
https://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/election2013
http://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/election2013/
http://www.oxfordshireelection.org.uk/
Vote totals can be found but by going through each individual seat.
This map of Britain reveals the 'workshy' spots around the country where people claiming incapacity benefit claimants are actually fit enough to work.
The Government introduced tough new health tests for those who claimed to be too unwell to get back into employment two years ago.
Since then some 203,000, 30 per cent, out of 700,000 receiving the old Incapacity Benefit were declared fit to find work.
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) said Birmingham had the biggest number of claimants capable of work. Of 14,640 claimants, 5,180 were fit.
THE TOP 20 'WORKSHY' AREAS
Birmingham 5,180
Glasgow City 3,950
Liverpool 3,280
Manchester 3,030
County Durham 2,970
Leeds 2,570
Bradford 2,430
Sheffield 2,180
Stoke-on-Trent 1,900
Wakefield 1,880
Kirklees 1,830
Sandwell 1,810
Cardiff 1,800
Bristol, City of 1,760
Nottingham 1,740
Wigan 1,690
Rhondda, 1,670
Wirral 1,620
Doncaster 1,610
Coventry 1,580
In Glasgow, 3,950 of the 15,720 who received incapacity benefit were found to be well enough to work.
And in both Liverpool and Manchester more than 3,000 are no longer eligible for the benefit.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2319355/Workshy-map-Britain-revealed-Thousands-incapacity-benefit-claimants-capableworking.html#ixzz2SOdzw535
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/9pvrqmvz9b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-030513.pdf
Ed has shifted perception a bit since Sept 12, but still has a way to go:
Net
Effective opposition to govt: -38 (+5)
Clear what he stands for: -38 (-1)
Up to job of PM: -26(+5)
Likely he will become PM: -21 (+6)
Lib Dems (+10) and Lab (+3) think it was fair of Ken Clarke to describe UKIP as "clowns", Tories (-28) and UKIP (-96) do not, and no one (-60) thinks it was good tactics. Only Tories, barely (+3) think Cameron is responding to UKIP well, most (-35) do not.
To me a narrow majority of 6 for Milliband's Labour at this point of the electoral cycle looks extremely fragile, and with some swingback, very likely to be a rerun of 2010. This would probably accurately reflect the voters views, who are unconvinced by any party. Such is the virtue of FPTP, one reason people like it.
Having said that, I voted against AV, but would probably vote for PR, if it was a formula like STV in multimember constituencies, not the appalling party list system of the Euros.
Osbornes Solicitors LLP is offering a tailor-made ‘no win, no fee’ injury claims scheme for the thousands expected to come to Britain when entry controls are lifted at the end of the year.
The firm has hired bilingual advisers so that migrants can submit compensation applications without having to speak English, while its website provides an explanation of how Britain’s compensation system works.
The Romanian-language page says: ‘Find out, free of charge, if you can claim compensation as a result of your accident.
'Furthermore, for the vast majority of our clients we operate a policy of NO WIN, NO FEE!’
A Romanian businesswoman said: ‘Most of the new arrivals will be amazed to find that such a thing exists.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2319665/Firm-urges-Romanians-launch-legal-claims.html#ixzz2SOfrGwOl
One of the Labour seats Eastville was by 1 vote, the LDs held on by 17 in Clifton East, and a third Bristol seat Frome Valley had a majority of 35 to Labour - but had a big UKIP Vote.. I'm not sure that the one with the slimmest majority was considered to be a key ward in the first place.
Clifton East could be a key ward.
http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionWard=true&ElectionId=67&WardId=34
Not sure about Frome Valley - looked safe last time.
http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionWard=true&ElectionId=67&WardId=5
Eastville looked like a safe Labour ward.
http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionWard=true&ElectionId=67&WardId=31
I;m not trying to score points - but am trying to work out what is a key ward?
I
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22417482
Israeli air strikes reported by BBC. One for @Yokel.
Also, whatever you might think about the current government, the Conservatives have a pretty strong national brand. A lot of their supporters just aren't going to defect.
http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm
Plus, if the UKIP momentum keeps building, lots of people will just join in.
I have no financial interest either directly or indirectly in claims of the type mentioned in the Daily Mail article.
Politicians don't command a lot of respect. So I don't think it will be such a wrench to switch to a similar alternative.
Voters will have the opportunity to experiment by voting for UKIP in the Euros, or local elections, and seeing how they feel about it before the GE rolls round.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/31242/#Comment_31242
Strong support for anonymity on arrest (eg net secret, sexual offences, +59) becomes much more evenly balanced on charging (net secret, sexual offence -2), but falls away significantly on crimes like murder (net secret, arrest: +39, charge, -20)
The way Lib/Lab figured it out was inch by inch, election by election. A few more people figure it out each election, and that weakens the score of the squeezed party enough to build the case for the next time around. But it all takes time. And they still get it wrong - for example, someone (I think it was Yellow Submarine) posted how their sister heard about how well Clegg was doing and voted tactically for the LibDems in a Lab/Con marginal. With a party starting with almost nothing, it's pretty much impossible to tactically-vote correctly.
Where you are right is if that UKIP turn out to be a permanent feature this could work itself out in the long term. But the right will need to lose a few general elections before they figure it out.
- its not specifically Europe it is that Westminster is powerless and so respect for the institutions is sapping away.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/news/newstopics/eureferendum/10037363/EU-the-time-has-come-for-a-mandate-referendum.html
You do need a history in the seat, of course, and UKIP haven't got much of that to offer. Besides which defectors aren't popular. At first anyway. Eventually people get used to it.
There's also been some suggestion that a significant proportion of UKIP voters are first-for-a-long-time voters. Has any work been done on that?
edit: the point i'm making is not that it's easy but that saying they can't get any seats on this vote share is just silly
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2117389/TV-licence-cheats-make-TENTH-magistrate-court-cases.html
Net responsible:
OA: -22
Con: -11
Lab: -24
LibDem: -21
UKIP: -40
Con 280 .. Lab 285 .. LibDem 45 .. SNP 10 .. Ukip 5 .. PC 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Of course, UKIP won't win 22% in 2015. If they did, I think you'd end up with a lot of very quirky results, like 1922-24, before the system settled down again. I'm told by one quite senior figure in the party that while they'll field almost field a full slate, they'll focus on about 20 seats, in the hope of winning three or four.
A 3% projected lead for Labour is not encouraging, by recent standards. The Conservatives were 7% ahead in 2000 and 2003, and 12% ahead in 2004.
Not mentioned in other posts about YouGov, I think: a sharp shift in "coalition partners working together well", -6 net to Yes 28 No 63. Possibly reflects people getting leaflets slagging off the other party, but more probably the evident parallel Cam and Clegg strategies to differentiate - Cam saying we'd be more EU-sceptic if it wasn't for the LDs, Clegg saying he won't tolerate a referendum bill or more benefit cuts. This is, as Edmund would say, a feature, not a bug - both parties want to look different from each other in 2015. But if the gap continues to widen it makes a shift to confidence and supply in late 2014 more likely.
It seems odd that there is no UKIP bounce at all, but the polling ended on Friday afternoon, so won't have covered all the UKIP headlines in the Saturday press. No poll tonight but I'd expect a small bounce on Monday.
Melanie Phillips being autobiographical, recalls a difficult childhood and her initial working life as a Guardian journalist - she reveals the "thought culture" prevalent at the Guardian and how their writers were (are?) expected to conform.
She writes, "Having (personally) experienced how the absence of proper fathering could screw up a child for life, I believed I was doing no more than stating the obvious when I deplored the explosion of lone parenting, female-headed households and mass fatherlessness.
But, to my amazement, at The Guardian, I found that over this and many other issues, I was branded as reactionary, authoritarian and, of course, Right-wing.
The result was social ostracism. One of the mentors I had looked up to — a thoughtful person, independent-minded and intellectually curious, or so I had thought — simply walked off rather than talk to me about these issues.
All this was very painful. I was accosted angrily by someone I had previously thought of as a friend.
‘How can you possibly say that family breakdown hurts children?’ he spat out at me.
‘The worst damage to a child is always done by the traditional nuclear family!’
I could only gaze at him, defeated by the stupendous shallowness of such an attitude.
The ones who were the most aggressive and offended, I noticed, were those who had walked out on their families or were cheating on their spouses.
This revealed another sad truth about the Left. What matters to them above all is that they are seen to be virtuous and compassionate. They simply cannot deal with the possibility that they might not be.
They deal with any such suggestion not by facing up to any harm they may be doing, but by shutting down the argument altogether.
That’s because the banner behind which they march is not altruism, as they kid themselves. It is narcissism.
It was increasingly clear that the Left, the movement whose goal was to create a better society, had lost the moral plot — and not just over the family. It embraced the doctrine that all lifestyles were equal and none could be deemed to be better than any other.
The more those around me demonised those of us who were clinging to moral precepts based on duty rather than self-interest, the more important it became to me to try to open people’s eyes to what was thus being ignored, denied or misrepresented."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2319192/
Do you have an appreciation of the St Albans and Watford parliamentary seats based on Thursday ?
I have this worrying feeling of creeping yellow perilism begining to infest leafy Herts. Will I have to extend fine pie operations south of the border ?? .. I fear so !!
Are you revealing all again or do you mean "bears".