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Why you shouldn’t read too much into small unweighted subsamples – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,158
    Eabhal said:

    You can see why Starmer would simply nod in approval as the robust legal arguments are laid out in front of him.

    100%.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,568
    Scott_xP said:

    @Smyth_Chris

    Tom Tugendhat hits out at James Cleverly over Chagos islands, as Labour's deal somehow produces further Tory splits

    TT says "initiated during Liz Truss' premiership [when JC was foreign sec], these negotiations should never have started". Claims they compromise national security

    I suspect if they really compromised the national security of either the UK or US, the US would have strongly suggested we knock it off.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    Time for your nap.
    It’s quite a famous quote, tweaked
    I'm surprised Sunil didn't spot that.

    But it does make you sound more like the fat orange manchild.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    Selebian said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why is everyone making out they have loads of friends?

    I only have four proper ones - two male and two female. They have 3 kids between them. So with my one that's 4 between 5.

    Why is the birth-rate falling? Numerous reasons, obviously, but I'd highlight female emancipation. Women know it's a bum deal for them and with more empowerment are freer to turn it down.

    Falling birthrate in UK; a whole basket of overlapping reasons:

    Female careers - both choice and necessity
    leading to finite female caring/nurturing time
    Education structure - female best years spent in education and career development
    House prices and size
    Lack of social housing
    Uncertainty of renting sector
    Marriage breakdown
    Contraception and abortion
    Discontent among women with men
    Cost and difficulty of childcare
    Cars and car seats - this imposes a convenience maximum of 2
    The modern custom that children have their own individual room.

    I am amazed that anyone has any at all.
    The car seats thing is a pain (if you have three that are still young enough to need proper car seats rather than boosters). We have a Sharan, which is getting on a bit, and I'm not sure what options we'd have had for the next car. Even a lot of SUVs struggle with three full size car seats across the back - when we were looking it was Peugeot 5008, Grand Picasso, Galaxy, S-Max, Alhambra/Sharan, XC90, Disco pretty much. Even something like a Zafira or BMW 2 series won't three car seats across (I've been in car showrooms and tried!). Most of those are discontinued and now getting old. There are more compact options for car seats - e.g. two or three bolted together as a single, more compact unit, but they are costly and inflexible when one of your kids then needs the next thing up.

    With 4, plus luggage, we'll be in the market for a Transporter or something similar :open_mouth:
    I've transported 4 small children in my e cargo bike with no problems
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    Time for your nap.
    It’s quite a famous quote, tweaked
    I'm surprised Sunil didn't spot that.

    But it does make you sound more like the fat orange manchild.
    I did! See my post with the :innocent: emoji!
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 181
    Leon said:

    Congratulations to the government for doing the right thing on the Chagos Islands, bringing to a close one of the more shameful periods in our recent colonial history. I see that the Tory party is making an arse of itself on this, as is to be expected.

    Then why are the chagossians themselves deeply angry and why do they say they were not consulted?
    It's almost as if "the chagossians" aren't actually some amorphous hive mind mass of humanity.

    Some 3rd generation Chagossians wouldn't be happy if they didn't have the same rights as their grandparents and be able to take UK nationality and live in Crawley.

    Some would still be deeply angry unless the base on Diego Garcia was closed and they could live there.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
  • Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Congratulations to the government for doing the right thing on the Chagos Islands, bringing to a close one of the more shameful periods in our recent colonial history. I see that the Tory party is making an arse of itself on this, as is to be expected.

    Then why are the chagossians themselves deeply angry and why do they say they were not consulted?
    I guess the government had to balance the competing demands of the Mauritians who had the legal case, the Chagossians who had the moral case, and the Americans, who had the military and security case. It seems to me that the deal, which will guarantee the right of return to islands other than DG while allowing the UK (in reality the US) to maintain the DG base, satisfies those competing demands rather effectively. Presumably the Chagossians hoped for more and no doubt deserved more too, but this is a decent compromise.
    Some were on R4 quoted as welcoming the deal.
    As far as I can see, the Chagossians aren't particularly united on their aims. Quite a large number wish to remain in the UK with full citizenship rights.
    Currently there are no Chagossians living in the Chagos Islands. There is zero probability of the Islands ever being a self sufficient self governing territory. Hopefully the Mauritians can help those Chagossians who want to return to islands other than DG to do so and those who want to build a life here instead can do so too.
    Given the likely rise in sea level over the coming years, there won't be any islands left to inhabit within a few generations.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    IanB2 said:

    A distinctively out-of-season feel down at Jersey shore. Were it not for the 20C temperature, this could be October in Blackpool.

    A few years back we had a very warm early Oct spell, during which I visited Aberystwyth to meet a colleague. It felt like summer - 20 deg, blue skies etc, apart from the sun going down at 5.30.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,112
    edited October 3

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    Time for your nap.
    It’s quite a famous quote, tweaked
    I'm surprised Sunil didn't spot that.

    But it does make you sound more like the fat orange manchild.
    It's a fine piece of invective by Irv Welsh, so if Trump sounds like that it's a good sign for the Donald

    But I don't believe you spotted the quote, either, and you've just hastily checked
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    @gavinesler

    US Secy of State Anthony Blinken thinks the Chagos Island deal is a triumph for diplomacy and the US-UK. But, hey … what would he know?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,158
    kenObi said:

    Leon said:

    Congratulations to the government for doing the right thing on the Chagos Islands, bringing to a close one of the more shameful periods in our recent colonial history. I see that the Tory party is making an arse of itself on this, as is to be expected.

    Then why are the chagossians themselves deeply angry and why do they say they were not consulted?
    It's almost as if "the chagossians" aren't actually some amorphous hive mind mass of humanity.

    Some 3rd generation Chagossians wouldn't be happy if they didn't have the same rights as their grandparents and be able to take UK nationality and live in Crawley.

    Some would still be deeply angry unless the base on Diego Garcia was closed and they could live there.
    Have they been asked ?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,568
    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
    The phone book maps names to numbers and addresses. It doesn't map faces to names.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,541

    Is this Diego Garcia issue going to damage James Cleverly's Tory leadership bid?
    After all, it was his initiative and his negotiations in the first place; criticising it being completed can look rather dodgy.

    Nah. Long-term planning, setting a trap - knowing Labour in government would happily fling themselves upon the razor-sharp spikes/get hit with poison-tipped darts/get crushed by the giant stone ball of doom...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,022
    Meanwhile.

    Montana man gets 6 months in prison for cloning giant sheep and breeding it
    https://apnews.com/article/giant-sheep-clone-breed-trophy-hunt-d3a2b57886980266abeac69c44b70b2a
    An 81-year-old Montana man was sentenced Monday to six months in federal prison for illegally using tissue and testicles from large sheep hunted in Central Asia and the U.S. to create hybrid sheep for captive trophy hunting in Texas and Minnesota.

    U.S. District Court Judge Brian Morris said he struggled to come up with a sentence for Arthur “Jack” Schubarth of Vaughn, Montana. He said he weighed Schubarth’s age and lack of a criminal record with a sentence that would deter anyone else from trying to “change the genetic makeup of the creatures” on the earth.

    Morris also fined Schubarth $20,000 and ordered him to make a $4,000 payment to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Foundation. Schubarth will be allowed to self-report to a Bureau of Prisons medical facility.

    “I will have to work the rest of my life to repair everything I’ve done,” Schubarth told the judge just before sentencing.

    Schubarth’s attorney, Jason Holden, said cloning the giant Marco Polo sheep hunted in Kyrgyzstan in 2013 has ruined his client’s “life, reputation and family.”

    “I think this has broken him,” Holden said...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Congratulations to the government for doing the right thing on the Chagos Islands, bringing to a close one of the more shameful periods in our recent colonial history. I see that the Tory party is making an arse of itself on this, as is to be expected.

    Then why are the chagossians themselves deeply angry and why do they say they were not consulted?
    I guess the government had to balance the competing demands of the Mauritians who had the legal case, the Chagossians who had the moral case, and the Americans, who had the military and security case. It seems to me that the deal, which will guarantee the right of return to islands other than DG while allowing the UK (in reality the US) to maintain the DG base, satisfies those competing demands rather effectively. Presumably the Chagossians hoped for more and no doubt deserved more too, but this is a decent compromise.
    Some were on R4 quoted as welcoming the deal.
    As far as I can see, the Chagossians aren't particularly united on their aims. Quite a large number wish to remain in the UK with full citizenship rights.
    Currently there are no Chagossians living in the Chagos Islands. There is zero probability of the Islands ever being a self sufficient self governing territory. Hopefully the Mauritians can help those Chagossians who want to return to islands other than DG to do so and those who want to build a life here instead can do so too.
    I don't understand why we couldn't have offered the Chagossians this ourselves. Presumably because there's zero infrastructure outwith DG there - so I assume noone wants to live there as it's practically impossible.
    It's a good question. But we've spent 60 years fucking them over so my guess is they're probably better off trying their luck with the Mauritians than expecting us to do them any favours.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Congratulations to the government for doing the right thing on the Chagos Islands, bringing to a close one of the more shameful periods in our recent colonial history. I see that the Tory party is making an arse of itself on this, as is to be expected.

    Then why are the chagossians themselves deeply angry and why do they say they were not consulted?
    I guess the government had to balance the competing demands of the Mauritians who had the legal case, the Chagossians who had the moral case, and the Americans, who had the military and security case. It seems to me that the deal, which will guarantee the right of return to islands other than DG while allowing the UK (in reality the US) to maintain the DG base, satisfies those competing demands rather effectively. Presumably the Chagossians hoped for more and no doubt deserved more too, but this is a decent compromise.
    Some were on R4 quoted as welcoming the deal.
    As far as I can see, the Chagossians aren't particularly united on their aims. Quite a large number wish to remain in the UK with full citizenship rights.
    Currently there are no Chagossians living in the Chagos Islands. There is zero probability of the Islands ever being a self sufficient self governing territory. Hopefully the Mauritians can help those Chagossians who want to return to islands other than DG to do so and those who want to build a life here instead can do so too.
    Given the likely rise in sea level over the coming years, there won't be any islands left to inhabit within a few generations.
    Indeed, this is bald men arguing over a comb.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,022
    Vance isn't even pretending.

    Project 2025 author Pete Hoekstra introduces JD Vance at rally: “We need to go back“
    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1841535689726316779

    Has he given up on Trump, and is his play for the 2028 nomination ?
    No real way of telling, as either way it's a win for him.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Congratulations to the government for doing the right thing on the Chagos Islands, bringing to a close one of the more shameful periods in our recent colonial history. I see that the Tory party is making an arse of itself on this, as is to be expected.

    Then why are the chagossians themselves deeply angry and why do they say they were not consulted?
    I guess the government had to balance the competing demands of the Mauritians who had the legal case, the Chagossians who had the moral case, and the Americans, who had the military and security case. It seems to me that the deal, which will guarantee the right of return to islands other than DG while allowing the UK (in reality the US) to maintain the DG base, satisfies those competing demands rather effectively. Presumably the Chagossians hoped for more and no doubt deserved more too, but this is a decent compromise.
    Some were on R4 quoted as welcoming the deal.
    As far as I can see, the Chagossians aren't particularly united on their aims. Quite a large number wish to remain in the UK with full citizenship rights.
    Currently there are no Chagossians living in the Chagos Islands. There is zero probability of the Islands ever being a self sufficient self governing territory. Hopefully the Mauritians can help those Chagossians who want to return to islands other than DG to do so and those who want to build a life here instead can do so too.
    Given the likely rise in sea level over the coming years, there won't be any islands left to inhabit within a few generations.
    I'm not sure life is going to be a bed of roses for anyone a hundred years from now.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 181

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    How many times have we warned you that Absinthe for breakfast will **** up your entire day?
    It's cut and paste from Trainspotting with a couple of words replaced.

    Stunningly witty pastiche or tiresome cliche ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Congratulations to the government for doing the right thing on the Chagos Islands, bringing to a close one of the more shameful periods in our recent colonial history. I see that the Tory party is making an arse of itself on this, as is to be expected.

    Then why are the chagossians themselves deeply angry and why do they say they were not consulted?
    I guess the government had to balance the competing demands of the Mauritians who had the legal case, the Chagossians who had the moral case, and the Americans, who had the military and security case. It seems to me that the deal, which will guarantee the right of return to islands other than DG while allowing the UK (in reality the US) to maintain the DG base, satisfies those competing demands rather effectively. Presumably the Chagossians hoped for more and no doubt deserved more too, but this is a decent compromise.
    Some were on R4 quoted as welcoming the deal.
    As far as I can see, the Chagossians aren't particularly united on their aims. Quite a large number wish to remain in the UK with full citizenship rights.
    Currently there are no Chagossians living in the Chagos Islands. There is zero probability of the Islands ever being a self sufficient self governing territory. Hopefully the Mauritians can help those Chagossians who want to return to islands other than DG to do so and those who want to build a life here instead can do so too.
    I don't understand why we couldn't have offered the Chagossians this ourselves. Presumably because there's zero infrastructure outwith DG there - so I assume noone wants to live there as it's practically impossible.
    It's a good question. But we've spent 60 years fucking them over so my guess is they're probably better off trying their luck with the Mauritians than expecting us to do them any favours.
    Guy on BBC news earlier said they want self-determination, but hey, what he know.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,112
    edited October 3
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why is everyone making out they have loads of friends?

    I only have four proper ones - two male and two female. They have 3 kids between them. So with my one that's 4 between 5.

    Why is the birth-rate falling? Numerous reasons, obviously, but I'd highlight female emancipation. Women know it's a bum deal for them and with more empowerment are freer to turn it down.

    Falling birthrate in UK; a whole basket of overlapping reasons:

    Female careers - both choice and necessity
    leading to finite female caring/nurturing time
    Education structure - female best years spent in education and career development
    House prices and size
    Lack of social housing
    Uncertainty of renting sector
    Marriage breakdown
    Contraception and abortion
    Discontent among women with men
    Cost and difficulty of childcare
    Cars and car seats - this imposes a convenience maximum of 2
    The modern custom that children have their own individual room.

    I am amazed that anyone has any at all.
    The car seats thing is a pain (if you have three that are still young enough to need proper car seats rather than boosters). We have a Sharan, which is getting on a bit, and I'm not sure what options we'd have had for the next car. Even a lot of SUVs struggle with three full size car seats across the back - when we were looking it was Peugeot 5008, Grand Picasso, Galaxy, S-Max, Alhambra/Sharan, XC90, Disco pretty much. Even something like a Zafira or BMW 2 series won't three car seats across (I've been in car showrooms and tried!). Most of those are discontinued and now getting old. There are more compact options for car seats - e.g. two or three bolted together as a single, more compact unit, but they are costly and inflexible when one of your kids then needs the next thing up.

    With 4, plus luggage, we'll be in the market for a Transporter or something similar :open_mouth:
    Indeedy !

    There's a useful thing called a Multimac, which puts 3 or 4 (depending on age/size) across the back of vehicles including estates, where number of fixing points is the usual limitation. But you'll be spending £1500+.

    https://www.multimac.com/home

    Or you are, as you say, into MPVs, 2 or 3 row tonka-tankers, or something small van size or VW Transporter size.

    New prices of such vehicle seem to be £~35k+ if not cheap and nasty, or hope for a good day on Carwow.

    I might be attracted to a Skoda Kodiak.
    Checking, or a Citroen Berlingo, which seems good value at <£30k and is good for your image.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    How many times have we warned you that Absinthe for breakfast will **** up your entire day?
    That flounce didn't last long. IncorrectBatteryHorse would be proud :smiley:
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,738

    Pulpstar said:

    Macron must be laughing his ass off today given France's history with Mauritius.

    Fun fact: the French actually held tiny morsels of India throughout the colonial period:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_India
    I think they were the last areas to gain independence too.

    We were in Pondicherry about ten years ago. There is practically no remnant of Frenchness left, bar a few old buildings with iron balconies. and a couple of boules courts.
    Never been to "Pondy", but been to Mahe (the former enclave in Kerala) a fair few times. Famous locally for its liquor stores!

    ETA: Goa, and a few other Portuguese enclaves, were the last parts to rejoin India, in 1961.
    Ah, yes. Pondi had popular liquor stores for those in surrounding states. Although they did bear a pretty close resemblance to an East European border control.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,576
    Scott_xP said:

    @gavinesler

    US Secy of State Anthony Blinken thinks the Chagos Island deal is a triumph for diplomacy and the US-UK. But, hey … what would he know?

    He's a member of the Biden administration, whose record in international affairs leaves a lot to be desired.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808
    kenObi said:

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    How many times have we warned you that Absinthe for breakfast will **** up your entire day?
    It's cut and paste from Trainspotting with a couple of words replaced.

    Stunningly witty pastiche or tiresome cliche ?
    Choose life, choose the Chagos, choose an American airbase, choose 60 square kilometres of land and 54,000 square kilometres of territorial waters. Choose an uncertain future for the indigenous Chagossians, choose the loss of the Marine fucking Protection Area, choose the chance of potential Chinese presence. Choose your future. Choose life... But why would I want to do a thing like that? I chose not to choose life. I chose something else. And the reasons? There are no reasons. Who needs reasons when you've got Sir Keir Starmer as PM?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,948
    edited October 3
    I know it's an (old) fake but for some reason my socials algorithms have thrown up the Greta Thunberg vegan grenades clip again and it's bloody funny.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,504
    Scott_xP said:

    @gavinesler

    US Secy of State Anthony Blinken thinks the Chagos Island deal is a triumph for diplomacy and the US-UK. But, hey … what would he know?

    Of course he does. It protects US interests whilst screwing over the rightful claimants. Perfect win for the US.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 181
    HYUFD said:

    Foss said:

    I wonder how the Indians feel about potentially eventually seeing a a US base to the south of them replaced with a Chinese one.

    The deal is based on an agreement which keeps the US base even if sovereignty of the islands is handed over to Mauritius.

    We will see how long that lasts
    I'd imagine it will last at least 99 years.

    Do you think different ?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Congratulations to the government for doing the right thing on the Chagos Islands, bringing to a close one of the more shameful periods in our recent colonial history. I see that the Tory party is making an arse of itself on this, as is to be expected.

    Then why are the chagossians themselves deeply angry and why do they say they were not consulted?
    I guess the government had to balance the competing demands of the Mauritians who had the legal case, the Chagossians who had the moral case, and the Americans, who had the military and security case. It seems to me that the deal, which will guarantee the right of return to islands other than DG while allowing the UK (in reality the US) to maintain the DG base, satisfies those competing demands rather effectively. Presumably the Chagossians hoped for more and no doubt deserved more too, but this is a decent compromise.
    Some were on R4 quoted as welcoming the deal.
    As far as I can see, the Chagossians aren't particularly united on their aims. Quite a large number wish to remain in the UK with full citizenship rights.
    Currently there are no Chagossians living in the Chagos Islands. There is zero probability of the Islands ever being a self sufficient self governing territory. Hopefully the Mauritians can help those Chagossians who want to return to islands other than DG to do so and those who want to build a life here instead can do so too.
    I don't understand why we couldn't have offered the Chagossians this ourselves. Presumably because there's zero infrastructure outwith DG there - so I assume noone wants to live there as it's practically impossible.
    It's a good question. But we've spent 60 years fucking them over so my guess is they're probably better off trying their luck with the Mauritians than expecting us to do them any favours.
    Guy on BBC news earlier said they want self-determination, but hey, what he know.
    Is that an option for a territory whose likely population would probably be a few thousand, max, and which currently has no infrastructure and no economy?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,541

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Congratulations to the government for doing the right thing on the Chagos Islands, bringing to a close one of the more shameful periods in our recent colonial history. I see that the Tory party is making an arse of itself on this, as is to be expected.

    Then why are the chagossians themselves deeply angry and why do they say they were not consulted?
    I guess the government had to balance the competing demands of the Mauritians who had the legal case, the Chagossians who had the moral case, and the Americans, who had the military and security case. It seems to me that the deal, which will guarantee the right of return to islands other than DG while allowing the UK (in reality the US) to maintain the DG base, satisfies those competing demands rather effectively. Presumably the Chagossians hoped for more and no doubt deserved more too, but this is a decent compromise.
    Some were on R4 quoted as welcoming the deal.
    As far as I can see, the Chagossians aren't particularly united on their aims. Quite a large number wish to remain in the UK with full citizenship rights.
    Currently there are no Chagossians living in the Chagos Islands. There is zero probability of the Islands ever being a self sufficient self governing territory. Hopefully the Mauritians can help those Chagossians who want to return to islands other than DG to do so and those who want to build a life here instead can do so too.
    Given the likely rise in sea level over the coming years, there won't be any islands left to inhabit within a few generations.
    Australians hoping contiental land mass status saves them from being just an "island".....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    How many times have we warned you that Absinthe for breakfast will **** up your entire day?
    That flounce didn't last long. IncorrectBatteryHorse would be proud :smiley:
    A week, and just passing through. Sorry to have bothered you Taz. Although we "Labour " posters are a dying breed and need to stick together.

    Tarra-a-bit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Scott_xP said:

    @gavinesler

    US Secy of State Anthony Blinken thinks the Chagos Island deal is a triumph for diplomacy and the US-UK. But, hey … what would he know?

    Of course he does. It protects US interests whilst screwing over the rightful claimants. Perfect win for the US.
    And screws over the UK taxpayer, surely the first nation in history which is paying to be humiliated*. All we need now is some kind of national gimp mask

    *This does, however, explain the attraction of this deal for Liz Truss
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    How many times have we warned you that Absinthe for breakfast will **** up your entire day?
    That flounce didn't last long. IncorrectBatteryHorse would be proud :smiley:
    A week, and just passing through. Sorry to have bothered you Taz. Although we "Labour " posters are a dying breed and need to stick together.

    Tarra-a-bit.
    Did you flounce? lol. I don't think anyone noticed, sorry
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
    The Phone Book? Do you live in the 1980s?

    (Actually it was abolished this year, although nobody ever used it for anything except as a free door wedge)

    https://www.bt.com/help/the-phone-book
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,811
    The BBCs write-up on the Chagos matter is…. interesting.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
    The phone book maps names to numbers and addresses. It doesn't map faces to names.
    It also no longer exists. But apart from that, a perfect plan.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited October 3
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    How many times have we warned you that Absinthe for breakfast will **** up your entire day?
    That flounce didn't last long. IncorrectBatteryHorse would be proud :smiley:
    A week, and just passing through. Sorry to have bothered you Taz. Although we "Labour " posters are a dying breed and need to stick together.

    Tarra-a-bit.
    Did you flounce? lol. I don't think anyone noticed, sorry
    If that post doesn't get twenty likes there really is no justice in the World.

    Of course we all notice a Leon flounce for the calm that descends for the 24 hours you boycott the site.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    'Foreign Secrettary David Lammy has spoken to Commons speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle to explain why the Chagos Islands announcement has been made today - a general election campaign starts tomorrow in Mauritius. A ministerial statement is expected in the Commons on Monday.
    Foreign Office sources say the deal has no bearing on claims on Gibraltar and the Falklands as UK policy is driven by the demands of the population, and Gibraltarians and Falkland Islanders want to be British.
    The UK is signing a 100 year old Treaty to maintain the UK/US base at Diego Garcia and has a right to extend the lease at the end of that period.'

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1841811142823297509
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,948

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
    The Phone Book? Do you live in the 1980s?

    (Actually it was abolished this year, although nobody ever used it for anything except as a free door wedge)

    https://www.bt.com/help/the-phone-book
    Of course think of the data protection issues these days with printing everyone's name, address and telephone number and all publicly available. It beggars belief.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,112
    edited October 3
    It's been fairly dry and dusty on PB today, error margins, samples and demographics :smile: .

    This is my photo quota for the day. I learned that the French term for "illegal parking" or "antisocial parking" is "stationement sauvage", that is "feral parking", I like that.

    It is a screenshot of a video presentation from last week by London / Oxford cycle campaigners to Paris to see what is happening there. The whole presentation is 30 minutes. It's notable that change there is a lot quicker, but also more chaotic. Do we have any Parisians here? I'm interested in any comments.

    https://youtu.be/KtErUtBdhtU?t=1797

    Three interesting points for me:

    1 - Reportedly the "dumped Lime dockless hire bike" issue is much smaller in Paris than in London, despite there being more Lime bikes in Paris than in London.
    2 - Also reportedly the issue around illegal hacked e-bicycles turned into e-mopeds is smaller.
    3 - And status of a manifesto commitment is interesting. Once it was in the plan in the manifesto, and the party elected, it is difficult for local Government areas to cause delay. (Compare to the RKBC and their mobility track Hokey-Cokey on Kensington High Street).

    I suspect that 1) is to do with the London schemes being managed at Borough level, and 2) to do with a Government decision to create a wild west, rather than regulate at supply chain and delivery rider contract level, for public benefit.

    There's also, at the end, a short piece by a Highways Engineer about how rural networks can be improved, including tiny bypasses of villages. Also interesting.
    https://youtu.be/KtErUtBdhtU?t=3614
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,056

    Hello, hello, hello, hello, hello...

    F*** me there's one hell of an echo in here.

    Echo, echo, echo...

    Yodel-ayeee-hoooo!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
    The Phone Book? Do you live in the 1980s?

    (Actually it was abolished this year, although nobody ever used it for anything except as a free door wedge)

    https://www.bt.com/help/the-phone-book
    Of course think of the data protection issues these days with printing everyone's name, address and telephone number and all publicly available. It beggars belief.
    Does the Yellow Pages still exist? Famed for Aardvark Ltd plumbers and AAA Ltd mechanics.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
    The Phone Book? Do you live in the 1980s?

    (Actually it was abolished this year, although nobody ever used it for anything except as a free door wedge)

    https://www.bt.com/help/the-phone-book
    Of course think of the data protection issues these days with printing everyone's name, address and telephone number and all publicly available. It beggars belief.
    Amazing what was possible when we had a high trust society.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,158

    The BBCs write-up on the Chagos matter is…. interesting.

    But the timing of this breakthrough reflects a growing sense of urgency in international affairs, not least regarding Ukraine, with the UK keen to remove the Chagos issue as an obstacle to winning more global support, particularly from African nations, with the prospect of a second Trump presidency looming.

    Good God.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    and more importantly, where?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    How many times have we warned you that Absinthe for breakfast will **** up your entire day?
    That flounce didn't last long. IncorrectBatteryHorse would be proud :smiley:
    A week, and just passing through. Sorry to have bothered you Taz. Although we "Labour " posters are a dying breed and need to stick together.

    Tarra-a-bit.
    Did you flounce? lol. I don't think anyone noticed, sorry
    If that post doesn't get twenty likes there really is no justice in the World.

    Of course we all notice a Leon flounce for the calm that descends for the 24 hours you boycott the site.
    People notice when I'm gone for a day - for good or ill. No one would notice if you disappeared for six years. Soz
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,948

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
    The Phone Book? Do you live in the 1980s?

    (Actually it was abolished this year, although nobody ever used it for anything except as a free door wedge)

    https://www.bt.com/help/the-phone-book
    Of course think of the data protection issues these days with printing everyone's name, address and telephone number and all publicly available. It beggars belief.
    Does the Yellow Pages still exist? Famed for Aardvark Ltd plumbers and AAA Ltd mechanics.
    And we used to drive around in cars with books on our laps having arguments. Absolutely bonkers.

    And we used to go to Turkish Barbers and pay in cash.

    Oh.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    MattW said:

    It's been fairly dry and dusty on PB today, error margins, samples and demographics :smile: .

    This is my photo quota for the day. I learned that the French term for "illegal parking" or "antisocial parking" is "stationement sauvage", that is "feral parking", I like that.

    It is a screenshot of a video presentation from last week by London / Oxford cycle campaigners to Paris to see what is happening there. The whole presentation is 30 minutes. It's notable that change there is a lot quicker, but also more chaotic. Do we have any Parisians here? I'm interested in any comments.

    https://youtu.be/KtErUtBdhtU?t=1797

    Three interesting points for me:

    1 - Reportedly the "dumped Lime dockless hire bike" issue is much smaller in Paris than in London, despite there being more Lime bikes in Paris than in London. (First 2 minutes from my link)
    2 - Also reportedly the issue around illegal hacked e-bicycles turned into e-mopeds is smaller.
    3 - And status of a manifesto commitment is interesting. Once it was in the plan in the manifesto, and the party elected, it is difficult for local Government areas to cause delay. (Compare to the RKBC and their mobility track Hokey-Cokey on Kensington High Street).

    I suspect that 1) is to do with the London schemes being managed at Borough level, and 2) to do with a Government decision to create a wild west, rather than regulate at supply chain and delivery rider contract level.

    There's also, at the end, a short piece by a Highways Engineer about how rural networks can be improved, including tiny bypasses of villages. Also interesting.
    https://youtu.be/KtErUtBdhtU?t=3614

    I like that. "Feral". Illegal always sounds a bit melodramatic (though it is, importantly so on approaches to ped crossings).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808
    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    Depends if "our" American allies are Biden/Harris or Trump doesnt it. I know who my US ally is and they aren't orange.

    Biden

    "I applaud the historic agreement and conclusion of the negotiations between the Republic of Mauritius and the United Kingdom on the status of the Chagos Archipelago. It is a clear demonstration that through diplomacy and partnership, countries can overcome long-standing historical challenges to reach peaceful and mutually beneficial outcomes."
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    Leon said:

    Is this Diego Garcia issue going to damage James Cleverly's Tory leadership bid?
    After all, it was his initiative and his negotiations in the first place; criticising it being completed can look rather dodgy.

    The skinny is that the idea was Liz Truss’ (yes) and Cleverly didn’t like it - negotiating on sovereignty - but agreed to it as a loyal FS. That of course could be his own spin as everyone from left and right pours scorn on this terrible blunder
    Regardless of the truth (or lack) of the matter, I think the key question is whether that'll be believed or whether it'll damage him.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    This is BEFORE the Budget. Do you think they seriously expected to have these record-breaking disapproval ratings after three months? I don't. And I am sure they didn't

    The appalling Chagos Islands Blunderfest won't do any good, either

    The problem for Labour is that a fixed perception can set in, early, which then becomes very hard to shift. That seems to be happening
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,022
    Another Spectator contributor.

    I'm growing increasingly frustrated with this platform.

    There are two main reasons I once enjoyed using Twitter, or X (for some time):

    1) Engaging with people in my field and making new connections and even making new friends.

    2) Discovering new and interesting content from people I didn't yet know, especially experts in their fields sharing their knowledge.

    Unfortunately, these reasons appear no longer viable.

    People I regularly interacted with have disappeared from my timeline. If I don't engage with their posts daily, they vanish. Unless I go out of my way to make it clear to the algorithm that I want to see certain users, they simply disappear.

    Meanwhile, my timeline gets flooded with videos that maybe belong on TikTok or Instagram Reels, no matter how many accounts I mute. I know lists are an option, but that's not why I'm here.

    All of this leads me to believe that the good times on this platform are over, and I will be posting here less and less frequently.

    I've tried Bluesky, but it still doesn't feel quite right. I've started posting more on LinkedIn, so feel free to connect with me there.

    Additionally, I’ve launched a newsletter where I'll share more comprehensive analyses in the future, together with writing more op-eds. The link to my newsletter is in my bio. I'd be honored if you subscribe.

    I will no longer invest time in comprehensive threads on this platform.

    Thank you for sticking with me on this platform. It was a great experience while it lasted, but it feels like it has come to an end.

    https://x.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1841774193899405520
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited October 3
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    How many times have we warned you that Absinthe for breakfast will **** up your entire day?
    That flounce didn't last long. IncorrectBatteryHorse would be proud :smiley:
    A week, and just passing through. Sorry to have bothered you Taz. Although we "Labour " posters are a dying breed and need to stick together.

    Tarra-a-bit.
    Did you flounce? lol. I don't think anyone noticed, sorry
    If that post doesn't get twenty likes there really is no justice in the World.

    Of course we all notice a Leon flounce for the calm that descends for the 24 hours you boycott the site.
    People notice when I'm gone for a day - for good or ill. No one would notice if you disappeared for six years. Soz
    I did and they didn't. I don't have a problem with that, but then I don't need to be caressed like a doe-eyed puppy by adoring acolytes day in day out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    Those are ratings of a government in power for over a decade, not in office for a mere 3 months.

    Has a newly elected UK government ever plunged in popularity so quickly? Whoever the next Tory leader is, even Jenrick or Badenoch, they will have a chance given how unpopular Starmer is. Whereas even if the Tories had elected Clarke in 1997 not Hague Blair would still have walked it in 2001
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,342
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    This is BEFORE the Budget. Do you think they seriously expected to have these record-breaking disapproval ratings after three months? I don't. And I am sure they didn't

    The appalling Chagos Islands Blunderfest won't do any good, either

    The problem for Labour is that a fixed perception can set in, early, which then becomes very hard to shift. That seems to be happening
    By the time we reach mid term the numbers will be probably 10/70.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,504
    HYUFD said:

    'Foreign Secrettary David Lammy has spoken to Commons speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle to explain why the Chagos Islands announcement has been made today - a general election campaign starts tomorrow in Mauritius. A ministerial statement is expected in the Commons on Monday.
    Foreign Office sources say the deal has no bearing on claims on Gibraltar and the Falklands as UK policy is driven by the demands of the population, and Gibraltarians and Falkland Islanders want to be British.
    The UK is signing a 100 year old Treaty to maintain the UK/US base at Diego Garcia and has a right to extend the lease at the end of that period.'

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1841811142823297509

    'The UK is signing a 100 year old Treaty'. Am I correct in thinking this is terrible English? It certainly looks like it to me.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    This is BEFORE the Budget. Do you think they seriously expected to have these record-breaking disapproval ratings after three months? I don't. And I am sure they didn't

    The appalling Chagos Islands Blunderfest won't do any good, either

    The problem for Labour is that a fixed perception can set in, early, which then becomes very hard to shift. That seems to be happening
    By the time we reach mid term the numbers will be probably 10/70.

    And factor in this:

    ‘Gloomy’ Reeves triggers worst slump in British factory confidence since Covid
    Uncertainty ahead of the Budget is weighing on UK industry

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/01/gloomy-reeves-triggers-worst-slump-uk-factory-confidence/
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,504
    OT

    Can it be a considered a freebie if a State owned organisation is giving a ticket for a State funded event to a Goverment Minister?

    Not sure this is exactly what sleaze looks like
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    A valid point, as is your fairly constant refrain about Starmer's huge majority. However, at some point, it will become a concern. The Tories were not hugely worried when the numbers first turned against them. But as time went on, and things didn't get better, they got more and more alarmed, and now we are where we are.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077
    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    Only Diego Garcia matters, and the Yanks get to stay. The subtext of the deal is also that Mauritius probably doesn´t hand over a different island to the Chinese
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
    The Phone Book? Do you live in the 1980s?

    (Actually it was abolished this year, although nobody ever used it for anything except as a free door wedge)

    https://www.bt.com/help/the-phone-book
    Of course think of the data protection issues these days with printing everyone's name, address and telephone number and all publicly available. It beggars belief.
    Does the Yellow Pages still exist? Famed for Aardvark Ltd plumbers and AAA Ltd mechanics.
    And we used to drive around in cars with books on our laps having arguments. Absolutely bonkers.

    And we used to go to Turkish Barbers and pay in cash.

    Oh.
    I thought Turkish barbers were cash only.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,541

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    Dunno. Has Alli provided him with silk sheets, mink pillows and a wolf-skin throw?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    A valid point, as is your fairly constant refrain about Starmer's huge majority. However, at some point, it will become a concern. The Tories were not hugely worried when the numbers first turned against them. But as time went on, and things didn't get better, they got more and more alarmed, and now we are where we are.
    For Labour to win the next election people are going to have to feel that both personal finances and public services have improved a bit. I suspect that is about 50/50 from here but we will have a much better idea in 2026. This stuff really won't matter.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
    The Phone Book? Do you live in the 1980s?

    (Actually it was abolished this year, although nobody ever used it for anything except as a free door wedge)

    https://www.bt.com/help/the-phone-book
    Of course think of the data protection issues these days with printing everyone's name, address and telephone number and all publicly available. It beggars belief.
    Does the Yellow Pages still exist? Famed for Aardvark Ltd plumbers and AAA Ltd mechanics.
    And we used to drive around in cars with books on our laps having arguments. Absolutely bonkers.

    And we used to go to Turkish Barbers and pay in cash.

    Oh.
    B) The past is a foreign country, they do things differently there.

    (I pay my Turkish barber with Apple Pay, like any sane individual would)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,541
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    This is BEFORE the Budget. Do you think they seriously expected to have these record-breaking disapproval ratings after three months? I don't. And I am sure they didn't

    The appalling Chagos Islands Blunderfest won't do any good, either

    The problem for Labour is that a fixed perception can set in, early, which then becomes very hard to shift. That seems to be happening
    By the time we reach mid term the numbers will be probably 10/70.

    And factor in this:

    ‘Gloomy’ Reeves triggers worst slump in British factory confidence since Covid
    Uncertainty ahead of the Budget is weighing on UK industry

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/01/gloomy-reeves-triggers-worst-slump-uk-factory-confidence/
    Reeves is going to have to stand up at the Budget and announce

    "Only joking!"
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    Dunno. Has Alli provided him with silk sheets, mink pillows and a wolf-skin throw?
    Probably.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    A valid point, as is your fairly constant refrain about Starmer's huge majority. However, at some point, it will become a concern. The Tories were not hugely worried when the numbers first turned against them. But as time went on, and things didn't get better, they got more and more alarmed, and now we are where we are.
    Indeed it will at some point. Just not at this point. And a week is a long time in politics.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,937
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    Those are ratings of a government in power for over a decade, not in office for a mere 3 months.

    Has a newly elected UK government ever plunged in popularity so quickly? Whoever the next Tory leader is, even Jenrick or Badenoch, they will have a chance given how unpopular Starmer is. Whereas even if the Tories had elected Clarke in 1997 not Hague Blair would still have walked it in 2001
    Just wait til the budget. It's obvious they can't raise the money they were expecting too from the rich (see the recent row-back on non doms, for example, realising that the exodus that's already happening is killing the golden goose).

    Which means they will have to tax ordinary working people. Since they've ruled out the big three, income tax, NI, VAT, that leaves a whole other raft of unpopular measures. Fuel duty will get clobbered, ISA allowances will probably get cut, expect them to raise tax on lump sum pension withdrawals (a major source of bank of mum and dad to help young kids get on the property ladder), could see the uplift in capital gains on death disappear too, so a hidden bump to inheritance tax. And god knows what else that will be coming for the squeezed middle.

    It's why the Conservatives need to pick a moderate leader who appeals to the people Labour are going to squeeze, rather than somebody who wants to throw red meat at the party faithful and perpetuate the Thatcherite cargo cult. Unfortunately I reckon the membership will screw it up and elect a voter repellant. Meaning Starmer will continue to be a lucky general, at least until a more sensible opposition emerges.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
    The Phone Book? Do you live in the 1980s?

    (Actually it was abolished this year, although nobody ever used it for anything except as a free door wedge)

    https://www.bt.com/help/the-phone-book
    Of course think of the data protection issues these days with printing everyone's name, address and telephone number and all publicly available. It beggars belief.
    Does the Yellow Pages still exist? Famed for Aardvark Ltd plumbers and AAA Ltd mechanics.
    And we used to drive around in cars with books on our laps having arguments. Absolutely bonkers.

    And we used to go to Turkish Barbers and pay in cash.

    Oh.
    I thought Turkish barbers were cash only.
    Only if they are taxdodgers. I pay mine with my watch, like any regular Joe.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    This is BEFORE the Budget. Do you think they seriously expected to have these record-breaking disapproval ratings after three months? I don't. And I am sure they didn't

    The appalling Chagos Islands Blunderfest won't do any good, either

    The problem for Labour is that a fixed perception can set in, early, which then becomes very hard to shift. That seems to be happening
    By the time we reach mid term the numbers will be probably 10/70.

    Really makes the comparisons with 1997 laughable. Labour won by default and have absolutely no goodwill to fall back on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,022
    Senate seat markets are just up on Betfair Exchange.
    Not much trade yet.

    Along with Presidential vote share markets.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    A valid point, as is your fairly constant refrain about Starmer's huge majority. However, at some point, it will become a concern. The Tories were not hugely worried when the numbers first turned against them. But as time went on, and things didn't get better, they got more and more alarmed, and now we are where we are.
    For Labour to win the next election people are going to have to feel that both personal finances and public services have improved a bit. I suspect that is about 50/50 from here but we will have a much better idea in 2026. This stuff really won't matter.
    The shift around the west is to the right. Britain is a laggard in that respect but we will catch up. Labour have no idea how to fix anything and will likely make terrible errors (as we see today)

    This is a one term Labour government unless the right somehow contrives to be evenly split again. Which I doubt
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,158
    edited October 3
    Gov't approval is now similar to May's gov't when Grieve's amendment was rejected by parliament & Cameron's shortly after Brexit.
    Both PMs were gone shortly after.
    Nadir for Cameron's first term was 61-24 2 years in.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,937

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    So this tweet is from yesterday but

    https://x.com/josephfcox/status/1841471656784449590

    Take a pair of meta raybans - they have a camera in them

    connect that to a piece of software that recognises the face and returns a link

    Use the data within the link to pull peoples name and address back in say 10 seconds and as you walk round you can collect people's name and address instantly..

    Alternatively, they could have looked in the phone book. (Which still exists around here, not sure about elsewhere).
    The Phone Book? Do you live in the 1980s?

    (Actually it was abolished this year, although nobody ever used it for anything except as a free door wedge)

    https://www.bt.com/help/the-phone-book
    Of course think of the data protection issues these days with printing everyone's name, address and telephone number and all publicly available. It beggars belief.
    Does the Yellow Pages still exist? Famed for Aardvark Ltd plumbers and AAA Ltd mechanics.
    And we used to drive around in cars with books on our laps having arguments. Absolutely bonkers.

    And we used to go to Turkish Barbers and pay in cash.

    Oh.
    I thought Turkish barbers were cash only.
    Only if they are taxdodgers. I pay mine with my watch, like any regular Joe.
    How many haircuts do you get for a rolex these days?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    Funny old world.

    LOL.
    I'm not sure.

    Since July 4th they have been furiously blaming the new Government for all the enormous list of things they (did | failed to do | fucked up | setup so that the wheels would fall off this summer) themselves.

    Why not blame them for this as well? It's not as if anyone is taking them seriously.
    Fair point. If a Tory leadership candidate howls in an empty room, does he make a sound?
    They don't need any help from the Tories. This is an astonishing collapse


    🚨 Labour's approval rating drops to new low (-39)

    ✅ Approve 18% (-3)
    ❌ Disapprove 57% (+1)

    🚨 Just 37% of Labour voters think their own party is doing a good job in government (32% say bad).

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1841805425437491246
    And just five years before a general election. How will Sir Keir sleep at night?
    A valid point, as is your fairly constant refrain about Starmer's huge majority. However, at some point, it will become a concern. The Tories were not hugely worried when the numbers first turned against them. But as time went on, and things didn't get better, they got more and more alarmed, and now we are where we are.
    For Labour to win the next election people are going to have to feel that both personal finances and public services have improved a bit. I suspect that is about 50/50 from here but we will have a much better idea in 2026. This stuff really won't matter.
    The shift around the west is to the right. Britain is a laggard in that respect but we will catch up. Labour have no idea how to fix anything and will likely make terrible errors (as we see today)

    This is a one term Labour government unless the right somehow contrives to be evenly split again. Which I doubt
    Sure if they screw it up they get kicked out. The country naturally votes centre right so it is hard for Labour even if they are doing well or the Tories badly.

    If you are so certain Labour will screw up then you should be heavily laying them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:
    "In 2019, the International Court of Justice issued an advisory opinion stating that the United Kingdom did not have sovereignty over the Chagos Islands and that the administration of the archipelago should be handed over "as rapidly as possible" to Mauritius.[10] The United Nations General Assembly then voted to give Britain a six-month deadline to begin the process of handing over the islands.[11]"
    Do you think the French would simply roll over and yield territory and possessions, because the UN has got the huff? No. Because their governments have pride and backbone - and also better strategic sense than to hand a victory to China

    This is a monumental blunder as well as emblematic of Labour’s spineless moral vanity
    Do you understand the history of this territory? Any idea whatsoever? Any grasp of international law or the recent ruling?

    Or are you just drunk and angry again...? at 11.45am. In Camden Town.
    Governments obey international law, and they ignore international law, as it suits them.

    The protection of our strategic interests is of vastly greater importance than a ruling of the International Court of Justice. Provided that the military base is secure, then it's not a problem. The issue that matters is whether this gives the Chinese leverage to remove the base completely.
    It does.

    That lease isn't going to last anything like 99 years.

    China have form.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399
    Sean_F said:

    After his Chagos triumph, Sir Keir will surely have his sights next on the Falklands. It would be hugely demoralizing for the Tories, destroying the last unquestionable success of the Thatcher legacy. Would Sir Keir be above such gamesmanship?

    He can't. Under UN rules (which is what Chagos is about), the islanders have to consulted on a change in nationality for the islands.

    They are unanimous in not wanting to be Argentine.
    SKS says "hold my beer."
    SKS probably finds the idea of British territory personally offensive.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    OT

    Can it be a considered a freebie if a State owned organisation is giving a ticket for a State funded event to a Goverment Minister?

    Not sure this is exactly what sleaze looks like

    No idea what lies behind this, but the principle is clear: if the freebie is for the minister to attend in their official capacity - as part of their job - that's fine. If it's private fun that isn't.

    Sometimes you get to the World Cup Final free as part of your job. That's fine. It reward for all the times you attend a WTO conference on Pig Offal and Ancillary Product Tariffs at a suburban conference centre in Bratislava in a wet February.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:
    "In 2019, the International Court of Justice issued an advisory opinion stating that the United Kingdom did not have sovereignty over the Chagos Islands and that the administration of the archipelago should be handed over "as rapidly as possible" to Mauritius.[10] The United Nations General Assembly then voted to give Britain a six-month deadline to begin the process of handing over the islands.[11]"
    Do you think the French would simply roll over and yield territory and possessions, because the UN has got the huff? No. Because their governments have pride and backbone - and also better strategic sense than to hand a victory to China

    This is a monumental blunder as well as emblematic of Labour’s spineless moral vanity
    Do you understand the history of this territory? Any idea whatsoever? Any grasp of international law or the recent ruling?

    Or are you just drunk and angry again...? at 11.45am. In Camden Town.
    Governments obey international law, and they ignore international law, as it suits them.

    The protection of our strategic interests is of vastly greater importance than a ruling of the International Court of Justice. Provided that the military base is secure, then it's not a problem. The issue that matters is whether this gives the Chinese leverage to remove the base completely.
    The base is protected for 99 years apparently

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-to-hand-over-sovereignty-of-chagos-islands-to-mauritius-after-decades-long-dispute-13227089
    Provided that's cast-iron, then it's not a problem. The devil will be in the detail.
    Being cast-iron in English law doesn't mean it's cast-iron.

    It's implementation will be decided by hard power not legal niceties.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,022
    Nigelb said:

    New tranche of aerial photos for the 1930s at Historic England.
    https://historicengland.org.uk/images-books/archive/collections/photographs/aw-hobart-air-pictures-portleven-collection/

    The mill towns and villages in Lancashire and Yorkshire are particularly interesting.

    My photo for the day is Tower Bridge, 1930.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Starmer hands Diego Garcia “back to” Mauritius (they never owned it)

    But of course he does. Next the Elgin Marbles, the Benin Bronzes, he will probably try and hand over Stonehenge to Norway

    Absolutely insane
    Here is the official statement on Diego Garcia: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-between-uk-and-mauritius-3-october-2024 (You will notice the word "back" is not used anywhere.) It looks like a deal has been reached between different parties that will help solve the longstanding problem of people having been expelled from their homes. Is that not good news?
    A 99-year lease for Diego Garcia. By which point the Chinese population may be less than half its current number.

    Rumours of the demise of the base have been greatly exaggerated, and Britain has again asserted its respect for the international rule of law.
    And yet again the PB Tory hot takes have proven... embarrassing.

    A diplomatic and humane act by Sir Keir, that may go some way to assuaging a historical wrong.
    He was more likely told what to do by the Americans and it will do nothing to assuage any historical wrongs.
    So says Billy Glenn, the expert on the internet.

    LOL.
    Are they planning to give up the base so that the island population can return?
    The only winner here is Mauritius, which never “owned” the islands, and China. I doubt the Chagossians will benefit at all

    But Starmer will get a pat on the back from smirking Chinese-funded diplomats at the UN
    Mauritius never "owned" the Chagos islands because Britain detached them prior to Independence. And to cap it all Britain then proceeded to ethnically cleanse the islands between 1968 and 1973.
    That's as silly as saying the residents of Heathrow Village were ethnically cleansed to build Heathrow Airport.

    They were evicted at short notice but no ethnic cleansing went on and we don't need that sort of emotive language.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 181
    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399
    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foss said:

    I wonder how the Indians feel about potentially eventually seeing a a US base to the south of them replaced with a Chinese one.

    The deal is based on an agreement which keeps the US base even if sovereignty of the islands is handed over to Mauritius.

    We will see how long that lasts
    I'd imagine it will last at least 99 years.

    Do you think different ?
    Yes. I don't give it even 20.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
    The Americans were quite keen on us handing over the Falklands at one point

    US/UK interests are not perfectly aligned. We have just handed over 60,000 sq km of the Indian Ocean for no reason and we are paying for the privilege

    It’s a foreign policy disaster. It will go down in the history books for the epic scale of the witless stupidity
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,158
    edited October 3
    https://labour.org.uk/updates/press-releases/keir-starmer-speech-at-labour-party-conference-2024/

    The changes we made are permanent. Irreversible.
    And the work of service never stops.


    Starmer's conference speech makes more sense now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    How many times have we warned you that Absinthe for breakfast will **** up your entire day?
    That flounce didn't last long. IncorrectBatteryHorse would be proud :smiley:
    A week, and just passing through. Sorry to have bothered you Taz. Although we "Labour " posters are a dying breed and need to stick together.

    Why

    Labour is a broad church. I voted labour at the G.E. bit of buyers remorse but as my wife said, the Tories would be worse and didn't want to risk a Reform MP. But that does not mean Labour voters exist as a single entity all with a shared common tie that binds us all together.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foss said:

    I wonder how the Indians feel about potentially eventually seeing a a US base to the south of them replaced with a Chinese one.

    The deal is based on an agreement which keeps the US base even if sovereignty of the islands is handed over to Mauritius.

    We will see how long that lasts
    I'd imagine it will last at least 99 years.

    Do you think different ?
    Yes. I don't give it even 20.
    The Mauritians will allow the Chinese an ever greater presence in the archipelago. China is by far their biggest trade partner

    Slowly the base will become less strategic and useful. Meanwhile the seas will be plundered. And the chagossians aren’t satisfied anyway

    Cretins. Absolute cretins
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,777
    Leon said:

    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
    The Americans were quite keen on us handing over the Falklands at one point

    US/UK interests are not perfectly aligned. We have just handed over 60,000 sq km of the Indian Ocean for no reason and we are paying for the privilege

    It’s a foreign policy disaster. It will go down in the history books for the epic scale of the witless stupidity
    It's legitimately a disaster for the UK. Other overseas territories are now all up for grab by countries that happen to be nearby and want a slice of the action. The way that this has been implemented is what troubles me, we're not giving the islands independence and back to the Chagosians with a small helping hand to get the started, we're paying an unrelated party who wants the to sell SEZ in the Indian Ocean to China to take it off our hands.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    Looking at Cameron's comments when the Select Committee were speaking to him, the future of the base was the crucial reason for the go-slow under him. Which implies this deal is fine (and could even be from his negotiations).

    However:
    1 - That could just have been an excuse by him that he didn't want to go ahead
    2 - Regardless of the Tories initiating it and that the deal in practice complies with their only declared red line, it doesn't stop them attacking it. May be opportunistic, but that's one of the few benefits of Opposition.

    I've noticed Tugendhat has jumped on it to attack Cleverly; again, the rights or wrongs of it are reasonably irrelevant for purposes of whether or not he can now overhaul Cleverly to be the candidate of the centre
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414
    Leon said:

    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
    The Americans were quite keen on us handing over the Falklands at one point

    US/UK interests are not perfectly aligned. We have just handed over 60,000 sq km of the Indian Ocean for no reason and we are paying for the privilege

    It’s a foreign policy disaster. It will go down in the history books for the epic scale of the witless stupidity
    And although it was agreed on Sunak's watch it'll be remembered as down to Starmer.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    Pulpstar said:

    The BBCs write-up on the Chagos matter is…. interesting.

    But the timing of this breakthrough reflects a growing sense of urgency in international affairs, not least regarding Ukraine, with the UK keen to remove the Chagos issue as an obstacle to winning more global support, particularly from African nations, with the prospect of a second Trump presidency looming.

    Good God.
    We give up our own territory so Ukraine can defend their's? Well, that makes sense... 🤷‍♂️
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 92
    edited October 3

    Leon said:

    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
    The Americans were quite keen on us handing over the Falklands at one point

    US/UK interests are not perfectly aligned. We have just handed over 60,000 sq km of the Indian Ocean for no reason and we are paying for the privilege

    It’s a foreign policy disaster. It will go down in the history books for the epic scale of the witless stupidity
    And although it was agreed on Sunak's watch it'll be remembered as down to Starmer.
    In what way was it agreed on Sunak's watch? The negotiations had stopped under Cameron and only got going again over the summer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399
    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
    The Americans were one of the few countries backing Britain for full sovereignty.

    Blinken isn't going to suddenly go on air and say we've made a big mistake. He'd risk encouraging it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Leon said:

    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
    The Americans were quite keen on us handing over the Falklands at one point

    US/UK interests are not perfectly aligned. We have just handed over 60,000 sq km of the Indian Ocean for no reason and we are paying for the privilege

    It’s a foreign policy disaster. It will go down in the history books for the epic scale of the witless stupidity
    And although it was agreed on Sunak's watch it'll be remembered as down to Starmer.
    It wasn't agreed on Sunak's watch. Cameron put a stop to negotiations during his tenure.
This discussion has been closed.