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Why you shouldn’t read too much into small unweighted subsamples – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,498
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Congratulations to the government for doing the right thing on the Chagos Islands, bringing to a close one of the more shameful periods in our recent colonial history. I see that the Tory party is making an arse of itself on this, as is to be expected.

    Then why are the chagossians themselves deeply angry and why do they say they were not consulted?
    I guess the government had to balance the competing demands of the Mauritians who had the legal case, the Chagossians who had the moral case, and the Americans, who had the military and security case. It seems to me that the deal, which will guarantee the right of return to islands other than DG while allowing the UK (in reality the US) to maintain the DG base, satisfies those competing demands rather effectively. Presumably the Chagossians hoped for more and no doubt deserved more too, but this is a decent compromise.
    Some were on R4 quoted as welcoming the deal.
    As far as I can see, the Chagossians aren't particularly united on their aims. Quite a large number wish to remain in the UK with full citizenship rights.
    Currently there are no Chagossians living in the Chagos Islands. There is zero probability of the Islands ever being a self sufficient self governing territory. Hopefully the Mauritians can help those Chagossians who want to return to islands other than DG to do so and those who want to build a life here instead can do so too.
    Great. So the British taxpayer has to pay for fucking everything - we’re actually paying the Mauritians - and we also have to pay for any that still stay and we’ll probably end up paying the Chinese directly to build a new base - and of course we get zippo in return. Fabulous. Brilliant deal making
    I mean that isn't an accident is it? Britain is paying to fix a problem that Britain created. Who else should pay? The Mayans?

    Stop being such a pathetic toddler. Most Empires have a much less pleasant end. Britain is doing well by comparison.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,509
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
    The Americans were quite keen on us handing over the Falklands at one point

    US/UK interests are not perfectly aligned. We have just handed over 60,000 sq km of the Indian Ocean for no reason and we are paying for the privilege

    It’s a foreign policy disaster. It will go down in the history books for the epic scale of the witless stupidity
    It's legitimately a disaster for the UK. Other overseas territories are now all up for grab by countries that happen to be nearby and want a slice of the action. The way that this has been implemented is what troubles me, we're not giving the islands independence and back to the Chagosians with a small helping hand to get the started, we're paying an unrelated party who wants the to sell SEZ in the Indian Ocean to China to take it off our hands.
    Yep. The more I look at it the worse it gets - on multiple levels

    It’s catastrophic. We will now be pressured by every party imaginable expecting us to make similarly stupid and expensive concessions. To literally handover territory and PAY to do so. Even the stupidest person can see this is a tragically idiotic decision. And we didn’t consult the chagossians!

    China and Mauritius pushed hopefully at a door, chancing their arm, and we simply surrendered. I bet they can’t believe their luck

    Fucking fucking idiots. In their first 3 months Labour have made an epochally terrible error which will haunt British governments for decades

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,635

    NEW THREAD

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,594
    Leon said:

    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
    The Americans were quite keen on us handing over the Falklands at one point

    US/UK interests are not perfectly aligned. We have just handed over 60,000 sq km of the Indian Ocean for no reason and we are paying for the privilege

    It’s a foreign policy disaster. It will go down in the history books for the epic scale of the witless stupidity
    Until we see the actual detail, we don't know. However:

    - the UK/US base remains. That is the most important strategic fact.
    - 99 years isn't hugely long. Minor black mark there; 999 years would have been better.
    - But the islands may well be gone in a century anyway - or technology renders them less important despite their position.
    - The issue of the Chagossians is more important. RIghts and potential compensation may well be due.
    - Giving the islands to Mauritius isn't particularly logical but does accord with international opinion and it'd be practically difficult to hand them to a dispersed people who don't live there, although the option of return-then-independence should have been considered.
    - There's no reason why an independent Chagos would be any less friendly towards China than Mauritius.
    - It's notable that the UK is retaining a stake. Britain could easily have removed itself as the middle man and just let the US lease the base direct. This retains a British interest and say.
    - Britain has been winding down the empire for close to a century. A few isolated islands is hardly setting a precedent that wasn't already written in granite 60+ years ago.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,694
    Leon said:

    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
    The Americans were quite keen on us handing over the Falklands at one point

    US/UK interests are not perfectly aligned. We have just handed over 60,000 sq km of the Indian Ocean for no reason and we are paying for the privilege

    It’s a foreign policy disaster. It will go down in the history books for the epic scale of the witless stupidity
    It's a big problem that both sides of the political aisle see our interests as just an extension of the US's, with the only real dissent coming from the Corbynite left.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,481
    Talk about applying The rules instead of using a bit of common sense.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv2l930mrdo
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,509

    Leon said:

    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
    The Americans were quite keen on us handing over the Falklands at one point

    US/UK interests are not perfectly aligned. We have just handed over 60,000 sq km of the Indian Ocean for no reason and we are paying for the privilege

    It’s a foreign policy disaster. It will go down in the history books for the epic scale of the witless stupidity
    Until we see the actual detail, we don't know. However:

    - the UK/US base remains. That is the most important strategic fact.
    - 99 years isn't hugely long. Minor black mark there; 999 years would have been better.
    - But the islands may well be gone in a century anyway - or technology renders them less important despite their position.
    - The issue of the Chagossians is more important. RIghts and potential compensation may well be due.
    - Giving the islands to Mauritius isn't particularly logical but does accord with international opinion and it'd be practically difficult to hand them to a dispersed people who don't live there, although the option of return-then-independence should have been considered.
    - There's no reason why an independent Chagos would be any less friendly towards China than Mauritius.
    - It's notable that the UK is retaining a stake. Britain could easily have removed itself as the middle man and just let the US lease the base direct. This retains a British interest and say.
    - Britain has been winding down the empire for close to a century. A few isolated islands is hardly setting a precedent that wasn't already written in granite 60+ years ago.
    Idiot
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,179

    Sean_F said:

    After his Chagos triumph, Sir Keir will surely have his sights next on the Falklands. It would be hugely demoralizing for the Tories, destroying the last unquestionable success of the Thatcher legacy. Would Sir Keir be above such gamesmanship?

    He can't. Under UN rules (which is what Chagos is about), the islanders have to consulted on a change in nationality for the islands.

    They are unanimous in not wanting to be Argentine.
    SKS says "hold my beer."
    SKS probably finds the idea of British territory personally offensive.
    It probably "unsettles" him! Speaking of the Margaret Thatcher portrait, it probably unsettled him because he thought her ghost was scolding him for all the lavish freebies he was hoovering up. For all her faults, I suspect she never took a freebie in her whole tenure. She didn't even take a salary!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,179
    Just checking that Lord Alli doesn't hail from Mauritius....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,481
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The BBCs write-up on the Chagos matter is…. interesting.

    But the timing of this breakthrough reflects a growing sense of urgency in international affairs, not least regarding Ukraine, with the UK keen to remove the Chagos issue as an obstacle to winning more global support, particularly from African nations, with the prospect of a second Trump presidency looming.

    Good God.
    We give up our own territory so Ukraine can defend their's? Well, that makes sense... 🤷‍♂️
    More the fact we've used the Chagossians as a gambit to attempt to further (It won't work) our soft power within the UN because we're afraid of a potential change in US administration. I think the BBC write up is right, but it just beggars belief quite honestly.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,594
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    Giving up the Chagos Islands is a strategic disaster. Our American allies will be furious and Beijing delighted. Labour are making the world a more dangerous place.
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1841816941129867563

    The idea that Britain in this case aren't dancing to the tune of the Americans is utterly laughable.

    I'm just waiting for some expert on here to say its the equivalent of Chamberlain and 'Peace for our time'.
    The Americans were quite keen on us handing over the Falklands at one point

    US/UK interests are not perfectly aligned. We have just handed over 60,000 sq km of the Indian Ocean for no reason and we are paying for the privilege

    It’s a foreign policy disaster. It will go down in the history books for the epic scale of the witless stupidity
    Until we see the actual detail, we don't know. However:

    - the UK/US base remains. That is the most important strategic fact.
    - 99 years isn't hugely long. Minor black mark there; 999 years would have been better.
    - But the islands may well be gone in a century anyway - or technology renders them less important despite their position.
    - The issue of the Chagossians is more important. RIghts and potential compensation may well be due.
    - Giving the islands to Mauritius isn't particularly logical but does accord with international opinion and it'd be practically difficult to hand them to a dispersed people who don't live there, although the option of return-then-independence should have been considered.
    - There's no reason why an independent Chagos would be any less friendly towards China than Mauritius.
    - It's notable that the UK is retaining a stake. Britain could easily have removed itself as the middle man and just let the US lease the base direct. This retains a British interest and say.
    - Britain has been winding down the empire for close to a century. A few isolated islands is hardly setting a precedent that wasn't already written in granite 60+ years ago.
    Idiot
    In what way has anything practically changed? There was a base there yesterday. There is a base there tomorrow. There will (or can) be a base there into the next century.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,864
    Pulpstar said:

    kenObi said:

    Leon said:

    Congratulations to the government for doing the right thing on the Chagos Islands, bringing to a close one of the more shameful periods in our recent colonial history. I see that the Tory party is making an arse of itself on this, as is to be expected.

    Then why are the chagossians themselves deeply angry and why do they say they were not consulted?
    It's almost as if "the chagossians" aren't actually some amorphous hive mind mass of humanity.

    Some 3rd generation Chagossians wouldn't be happy if they didn't have the same rights as their grandparents and be able to take UK nationality and live in Crawley.

    Some would still be deeply angry unless the base on Diego Garcia was closed and they could live there.
    Have they been asked ?
    AIUI there is a group of Chagossians in the UK who don’t like the Mauritius government and want full independence. They were not consulted and are furious they were excluded. The issue isn’t with the deal per se - what they wanted was never possible
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,336
    Nigelb said:

    Vance isn't even pretending.

    Project 2025 author Pete Hoekstra introduces JD Vance at rally: “We need to go back“
    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1841535689726316779

    Has he given up on Trump, and is his play for the 2028 nomination ?
    No real way of telling, as either way it's a win for him.

    Predicting where the GOP go from here is not easy but things might work out better for Vance if Trump loses. Being his VP is no picnic as we've seen.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,498
    HYUFD said:

    'Foreign Secrettary David Lammy has spoken to Commons speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle to explain why the Chagos Islands announcement has been made today - a general election campaign starts tomorrow in Mauritius. A ministerial statement is expected in the Commons on Monday.
    Foreign Office sources say the deal has no bearing on claims on Gibraltar and the Falklands as UK policy is driven by the demands of the population, and Gibraltarians and Falkland Islanders want to be British.
    The UK is signing a 100 year old Treaty to maintain the UK/US base at Diego Garcia and has a right to extend the lease at the end of that period.'

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1841811142823297509

    So we have the right to extend the lease? That's interesting. Suggests we learnt something from the Hong Kong experience.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,336

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    It's SHITE being British! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the lefties. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand are GOVERNED by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to governed BY. We're ruled by effete arseholes. It's a SHITE state of affairs to be in, and ALL the fresh air in the world won't make any fucking difference!

    How many times have we warned you that Absinthe for breakfast will **** up your entire day?
    That flounce didn't last long. IncorrectBatteryHorse would be proud :smiley:
    A week, and just passing through. Sorry to have bothered you Taz. Although we "Labour " posters are a dying breed and need to stick together.

    Tarra-a-bit.
    Did you flounce? lol. I don't think anyone noticed, sorry
    If that post doesn't get twenty likes there really is no justice in the World.

    Of course we all notice a Leon flounce for the calm that descends for the 24 hours you boycott the site.
    People notice when I'm gone for a day - for good or ill. No one would notice if you disappeared for six years. Soz
    I did and they didn't. I don't have a problem with that, but then I don't need to be caressed like a doe-eyed puppy by adoring acolytes day in day out.
    I noticed! But then I notice everything. My gift, my curse.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,993

    Sean_F said:

    After his Chagos triumph, Sir Keir will surely have his sights next on the Falklands. It would be hugely demoralizing for the Tories, destroying the last unquestionable success of the Thatcher legacy. Would Sir Keir be above such gamesmanship?

    He can't. Under UN rules (which is what Chagos is about), the islanders have to consulted on a change in nationality for the islands.

    They are unanimous in not wanting to be Argentine.
    SKS says "hold my beer."
    SKS probably finds the idea of British territory personally offensive.
    It probably "unsettles" him! Speaking of the Margaret Thatcher portrait, it probably unsettled him because he thought her ghost was scolding him for all the lavish freebies he was hoovering up. For all her faults, I suspect she never took a freebie in her whole tenure. She didn't even take a salary!
    She had already married a millionaire of course.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,380

    Leon said:

    I’m actively embarrassed to be British now. So Labour has finally achieved that

    I need a new nationality

    Rwanda has built some new accommodation and is very welcoming I hear.
    And its completely safe. There is an Act of Parliament saying so and you can't get safer than that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,228
    We need an urgent People's Vote on this Labour government.

    We now have a lot more information than we did 100 days ago.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,228
    We need an urgent People's Vote on this Labour government.

    We now have a lot more information than we did 100 days ago.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,228
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    If something immediately feels like a monstrous and bewildering mistake, it usually turns out that it is

    *cough*BREXIT*cough*
    Do you say BREXIT during sex, Scott?

    We already know you do it when having a surly Scottish wank.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,228

    HYUFD said:

    After his Chagos triumph, Sir Keir will surely have his sights next on the Falklands. It would be hugely demoralizing for the Tories, destroying the last unquestionable success of the Thatcher legacy. Would Sir Keir be above such gamesmanship?

    If Sir Keir gave the Falklands to Argentina white working class and lower middle class voters who voted for him in July would rush to the Tories and Reform so fast he wouldn't know what had hit him. Labour would lose every single redwall seat it won back in July and more. Not to mention the Sun and Mail would pour the biggest pile of shit over his head too.

    Indeed the Argentine President Milei is not even focused on the Falklands now but growing the Argentine economy.

    I disagree with the Chagos Islands decision on the risk it could become a Chinese military base but the population there has far less desire to stay a British overseas territory than the Falklands does
    I appreciate the Falklands still has a resonance with certain elderly Tories, but does anyone else under the age of fifty really give a fig? I'm being serious. I encounter people these days who don't know who the Beatles are. Would a rock with a lot of penguins really get them manning the barricades?
    The treason is innately strong in these EU types.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,228
    BREAKING NEWS: Sir Sheer Wanker agrees to give the Spanish Gibraltar in exchange for their recipe for paella, a prime place at the Tomatina next year, and €5million per annum for the next 73 years.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,801
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    If we're frank, the Tories would absolutely have done this anyway. The statements of Biden indicate to me a very heavy-handed US involvement. Rishi wasn't any better at telling Grandpa Joe to piss off than Starmer is. But Starmer’s in Government now, so he's where the buck stops.
    David Cameron reportedly stopped this from going ahead when he became foreign secretary. I don't think the Tories would have gone through with it, it was in fact Liz Truss that started the whole process off because she's a blithering idiot.
    You think upon getting into number 10, forming a cabinet, trying to pull the growth plan together to turn the economy around, dealing living in Number 10 with Boris' dog's fleas, Liz was also running James Cleverly's foreign policy for him? And was pushing the idea of doing this why exactly? She is famously China-sceptical, unlike Cleverly who is a China-supine.

    Do you not think it's slightly more likely that it was long-standing FCO policy, and Cleverly just walked into it and said 'yes' to everyone as seems to be his general habit?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,819

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wouldn’t it be awkward if James Cleverly were undermined by, oh I don’t know, say, James Cleverly…


    If we're frank, the Tories would absolutely have done this anyway. The statements of Biden indicate to me a very heavy-handed US involvement. Rishi wasn't any better at telling Grandpa Joe to piss off than Starmer is. But Starmer’s in Government now, so he's where the buck stops.
    David Cameron reportedly stopped this from going ahead when he became foreign secretary. I don't think the Tories would have gone through with it, it was in fact Liz Truss that started the whole process off because she's a blithering idiot.
    You think upon getting into number 10, forming a cabinet, trying to pull the growth plan together to turn the economy around, dealing living in Number 10 with Boris' dog's fleas, Liz was also running James Cleverly's foreign policy for him? And was pushing the idea of doing this why exactly? She is famously China-sceptical, unlike Cleverly who is a China-supine.

    Do you not think it's slightly more likely that it was long-standing FCO policy, and Cleverly just walked into it and said 'yes' to everyone as seems to be his general habit?
    She was Foreign Secretary before her brief Premiership. The negotiations started in 2022, and continued under subsequent Foreign Secs.

    It seems to me to be righting a historical wrong, while maintaining for the foreseeable future the base on Diego Garcia.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,674
    Evening all :)

    Some of the comments on here make the deal done on the Chagpos Islands sound like the worst foreign policy disaster since Munich.

    Er, it's not. Obviously, those not well disposed towards the Government are trying to whip up some hysteria about it but it sounds close to the deal to which James Cleverly was prepared to agree when Foreign Secretary a couple of years back.

    That's not to say the new deal is perfect - it isn't. The Chagossians have been shafted - forcibly expelled from their ancestral home and forbidden to ever return, that's inexcusable. No one asked them what they wanted - they might well have agreed to being part of Mauritius (again) but how does this deal work for them? Will they be allowed back to the islands (minus of course Diego Garcia)?

    The whole sorry story of the British Indian Ocean Territory not only suggests the French had the last laugh but looks like a huge waste of money. Not the first and probably not the last.
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