Is Kemi-kaze Badenoch about to blow an 18% lead? – politicalbetting.com

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Is Kemi-kaze Badenoch about to blow an 18% lead? – politicalbetting.com

Exclusive First YouGov Tory members poll this month shows now Robert Jenrick within touching distance in head2head with Kemi Badenoch. He’s 48% she’s 52%This comes after a surge in his vote Story https://t.co/ecyjFh8184

Read the full story here

Jonathan

Oh no. 52:48 again.

Sandpit

First like Kemi!

Taz

"Kemi-kaze"

Very good

Alanbrooke

Reeves talking herself in to a recession

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/01/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-uk-confidence-budget-pmi/

TheScreamingEagles

Taz said:

"Kemi-kaze"

Very good

Hurrah, somebody spotted my subtle pun/wordplay.

eek

Alanbrooke said:

Reeves talking herself in to a recession

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/01/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-uk-confidence-budget-pmi/

It’s the 3 months of limbo that is creating the recession.

Problem is there weren't many dates available given the timing of the election

Alanbrooke

eek said:

Alanbrooke said:

Reeves talking herself in to a recession

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/01/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-uk-confidence-budget-pmi/

It’s the 3 months of limbo that is creating the recession.

Problem is there weren't many dates available given the timing of the election

They have a narrative of non stop gloom. Hardly surprising people are getting fed up.

As for a growth plan LOL

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:

"Kemi-kaze"

Very good

Hurrah, somebody spotted my subtle pun/wordplay.

Kemi-Kwasi probably rules out an already unlikely Chancellor comeback.

Stuartinromford

On one hand, it doesn't matter that much. The final is really unlikely to be Bob-Kemi because there are enough relative centrists to get someone else into the final two.

But Badenoch's only selling point with MPs is that she's the membership favourite so they had better put her through or else... Lose that, and what has she got?

So, Tawdry Bob it is. Hey, coming up with Trumpy insults is fun!

moonshine

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

FF43

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election

Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.

RochdalePioneers

eek said:

Alanbrooke said:

Reeves talking herself in to a recession

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/01/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-uk-confidence-budget-pmi/

It’s the 3 months of limbo that is creating the recession.

Problem is there weren't many dates available given the timing of the election

They went long so that the OBR could prepare a report they could rightly use to beat the Tories with. Problem is that there wasn't time to wait, have created yet more damage, and ironically the Tories will now use that to beat Labour with.

There is a political idiocy about this new government which is impressive...

boulay

Listening to Jenrick on T4 about his claims the special forces are killing terrorists because of ECHR and he’s being mullered by Mishal.
Why do politicians tell such silly stories which they can’t stand by factually? Surely they aren’t that stupid that they don’t think they will be picked apart on it?

Instead of saying “this is happening” he could simply have said “this could be an issue”. What a dick.

Jonathan

Badenoch despite having charisma seems to swerve from provocative to needlessly and for a party leader dangerously reckless. Her headline grabbing comments over the weekend seemed ill thought through and misjudged.

It’s an easy party piece to say surprising things, but it’s a gimmick that leads nowhere. Eventually you cause yourself more problems than it’s worth. What else does she have? Not a lot.

Foxy

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

It's dumb both politically and economically.

TheScreamingEagles

Oh dear, more bad polling for Kemi-kaze

Savanta poll puts Badenoch on the lowest net favorability with either Tory voters or the public, +23 and -11 respectively



https://x.com/pimlicat/status/1841009427320582234

Theuniondivvie

Pasty faced bullshitter Jenrick gobbling and gabbling on R4 over his unwise statements about the ECHR forcing the SAS to kill rather than capture suspects. Bringing ar brave SAS lads into the discourse doesn’t usually bode well for pols.

Alanbrooke

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter@

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

retail politics ?

Is that like shopping for clothes ?

RochdalePioneers

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh dear, more bad polling for Kemi-kaze

Savanta poll puts Badenoch on the lowest net favorability with either Tory voters or the public, +23 and -11 respectively



https://x.com/pimlicat/status/1841009427320582234

Its Chisti time - bring back Rehman to campaign as the "none of the above" candidate. Surely to God the answer for honest Tories when faced with that list is none of them.

Jonathan

Theuniondivvie said:

Pasty faced bullshitter Jenrick gobbling and gabbling on R4 over his unwise statements about the ECHR forcing the SAS to kill rather than capture suspects. Bringing ar brave SAS lads into the discourse doesn’t usually bode well for pols.

Kudos for the vitriol. Pasty faced bullshitter. Nice

Foxy

Great cartoon from XKCD.

FF43

Jonathan said:

Badenoch despite having charisma seems to swerve from provocative to needlessly and for a party leader dangerously reckless. Her headline grabbing comments over the weekend seemed ill thought through and misjudged.

It’s an easy party piece to say surprising things, but it’s a gimmick that leads nowhere. Eventually you cause yourself more problems than it’s worth. What else does she have? Not a lot.

I'm coming round to understanding Jenrick's appeal. He's ideological right without being batshit. That's a somewhat rare combination.

The ideological right obviously don't care if he's also incompetent, careerist, corrupt and a nasty piece of work.

Scott_xP

FF43 said:

I'm coming round to understanding Jenrick's appeal. He's ideological right without being batshit. That's a somewhat rare combination.

He is currently melting on live radio because of the batshit things he said yesterday

Theuniondivvie

Jonathan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Pasty faced bullshitter Jenrick gobbling and gabbling on R4 over his unwise statements about the ECHR forcing the SAS to kill rather than capture suspects. Bringing ar brave SAS lads into the discourse doesn’t usually bode well for pols.

Kudos for the vitriol. Pasty faced bullshitter. Nice

Vitriol partly caused by Jenrick making me think that Johnny Mercer may almost have had a principled position in this situation. Quite discomfiting..

FF43

Scott_xP said:

FF43 said:

I'm coming round to understanding Jenrick's appeal. He's ideological right without being batshit. That's a somewhat rare combination.

He is currently melting on live radio because of the batshit things he said yesterday

Is he now? I guess you and I don't share the ideology he's peddling so are more likely to see the gaping holes.

Luckyguy1983

Theuniondivvie said:

Pasty faced bullshitter Jenrick gobbling and gabbling on R4 over his unwise statements about the ECHR forcing the SAS to kill rather than capture suspects. Bringing ar brave SAS lads into the discourse doesn’t usually bode well for pols.

It was an unwise thing to say - if it's true, one can still hardly verify it by revealing ones' sources.

Don't see it affecting the outcome though.

Foxy

Conservative fringe meeting on immigration discussing how to persuade women to "breed for Britain" in order to "grow more" social care workers, one day after Kemi Badenoch's comments about "excessive" maternity pay.

https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3l5ejp7mcvl2t

Yep, that will win them the female vote!

Are they possessed by the American Right?

Luckyguy1983

FF43 said:

Jonathan said:

Badenoch despite having charisma seems to swerve from provocative to needlessly and for a party leader dangerously reckless. Her headline grabbing comments over the weekend seemed ill thought through and misjudged.

It’s an easy party piece to say surprising things, but it’s a gimmick that leads nowhere. Eventually you cause yourself more problems than it’s worth. What else does she have? Not a lot.

I'm coming round to understanding Jenrick's appeal. He's ideological right without being batshit. That's a somewhat rare combination.

The ideological right obviously don't care if he's also incompetent, careerist, corrupt and a nasty piece of work.

That's about the size of it. I would be more worried if he were squeaky clean at this point - look at Starmer.

Luckyguy1983

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.

Stuartinromford

Scott_xP said:

FF43 said:

I'm coming round to understanding Jenrick's appeal. He's ideological right without being batshit. That's a somewhat rare combination.

He is currently melting on live radio because of the batshit things he said yesterday

He's willing to say batshit stuff, sure. It's a nice question whether he believes this tosh or has calculated that it is what he needs to say to get on.

But he's able to say it in a tone that doesn't immediately sound batshit.

Talking of batshit, what's Cleverly up to by saying that the Stop The Boats slogan was an error, due to its unachievableness? Ten out of ten for accuracy, but doesn't he have an election to try to win?

Scott_xP

...

Jonathan

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.

No way back from what?

moonshine

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.

Yes this is right isn’t it. But what then.

Scott_xP

Stuartinromford said:

Talking of batshit, what's Cleverly up to by saying that the Stop The Boats slogan was an error, due to its unachievableness? Ten out of ten for accuracy, but doesn't he have an election to try to win?

That's an interesting question. A number of commentators have noted that in the contest to win the leadership, none of the candidates are talking about the Country. Is Cleverly positioning himself to try and actually win a GE instead of just the leadership?

Foxy

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.

I suspect he will stand down in 2028 to freshen up the face of the party for the GE.

So don't hold your breath.

Eabhal

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Pasty faced bullshitter Jenrick gobbling and gabbling on R4 over his unwise statements about the ECHR forcing the SAS to kill rather than capture suspects. Bringing ar brave SAS lads into the discourse doesn’t usually bode well for pols.

It was an unwise thing to say - if it's true, one can still hardly verify it by revealing ones' sources.

Don't see it affecting the outcome though.

I would guess he would have to in a police investigation?

He's alleged murder against British service personnel based on information that he and perhaps other ministers were aware of, and did not report to military police at the time. He'll either be shown to be a liar or someone who participated in a cover up.

It's a little more than "unwise". There's a live inquiry into all this - I presume he'll now be called to give evidence?

eek

I love the stories on twitter about a Super injunction without anything to back it up - story seems to be from the reform party done badly.

Especially when one of the people being libelled is an acquaintance of mine..

Sandpit

Was it @nico679 who highlighted over the weekend, the threat of a longshoremen strike in the US?

Well the last-minute negotiations failed and the strike has started, 45,000 port workers walked out at midnight.

The union leader is typically bombastic about breaking the employers: https://x.com/sweetcaligurl07/status/1840789188133974296

1st October Surprise, to add to the terrible flooding of recent days.

FrancisUrquhart

eek said:

I love the stories on twitter about a Super injunction without anything to back it up - story seems to be from the reform party done badly.

Especially when one of the people being libelled is an acquaintance of mine..

Wasn't a mainstream journalist sued (and lost) over this alleged story previously, again falling to Cameron's too many tweets rule...

eek

Sandpit said:

Was it @nico679 who highlighted over the weekend, the threat of a longshoremen strike in the US?

Well the last-minute negotiations failed and the strike has started, 45,000 port workers walked out at midnight.

The union leader is typically bombastic about breaking the employers: https://x.com/sweetcaligurl07/status/1840789188133974296

1st October Surprise, to add to the terrible flooding of recent days.

Given one of the key demands is to restrict the use of automation I don’t see this being a short strike or easily fixed.

There is a lot of existing automations still to be implemented in US ports - let alone many forthcoming enhancements on the putting the container on the lorry side of things

moonshine

FrancisUrquhart said:

eek said:

I love the stories on twitter about a Super injunction without anything to back it up - story seems to be from the reform party done badly.

Especially when one of the people being libelled is an acquaintance of mine..

Wasn't a mainstream journalist sued (and lost) over this alleged story previously, again falling to Cameron's too many tweets rule...

Yes
Edit - didn’t go to trial, settled out of court

Fishing

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

It's dumb both politically and economically.

I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.

FrancisUrquhart

eek said:

Sandpit said:

Was it @nico679 who highlighted over the weekend, the threat of a longshoremen strike in the US?

Well the last-minute negotiations failed and the strike has started, 45,000 port workers walked out at midnight.

The union leader is typically bombastic about breaking the employers: https://x.com/sweetcaligurl07/status/1840789188133974296

1st October Surprise, to add to the terrible flooding of recent days.

Given one of the key demands is to restrict the use of automation I don’t see this being a short strike or easily fixed.

There is a lot of automation still to be implemented in US ports

I saw an interesting video of how the Chinese are embracing automation in this area. If the port workers aren't careful it will be like the $20 / hr MacDonald's workers....

FrancisUrquhart

Fishing said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

It's dumb both politically and economically.

I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.

The thing is from a campaigning perspective, come the next GE, if you turned it around you can go big on what a shit show we inherited, look how we have managed to improve things (and if you have, you win by default anyway). Also, the public know things are in a shit state, that is why the Tories got hammered.

Luckyguy1983

Eabhal said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Pasty faced bullshitter Jenrick gobbling and gabbling on R4 over his unwise statements about the ECHR forcing the SAS to kill rather than capture suspects. Bringing ar brave SAS lads into the discourse doesn’t usually bode well for pols.

It was an unwise thing to say - if it's true, one can still hardly verify it by revealing ones' sources.

Don't see it affecting the outcome though.

I would guess he would have to in a police investigation?

He's alleged murder against British service personnel based on information that he and perhaps other ministers were aware of, and did not report to military police at the time. He'll either be shown to be a liar or someone who participated in a cover up.

It's a little more than "unwise". There's a live inquiry into all this - I presume he'll now be called to give evidence?

Meh.

Luckyguy1983

eek said:

I love the stories on twitter about a Super injunction without anything to back it up - story seems to be from the reform party done badly.

Especially when one of the people being libelled is an acquaintance of mine..

If there were a super injunction, what would back it up?

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

eek said:

I love the stories on twitter about a Super injunction without anything to back it up - story seems to be from the reform party done badly.

Especially when one of the people being libelled is an acquaintance of mine..

Wasn't a mainstream journalist sued (and lost) over this alleged story previously, again falling to Cameron's too many tweets rule...

Trained journalists should know better than to publish random rumours they find on Twitter, without proper old-fashioned sources to back up the story.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

eek said:

I love the stories on twitter about a Super injunction without anything to back it up - story seems to be from the reform party done badly.

Especially when one of the people being libelled is an acquaintance of mine..

Wasn't a mainstream journalist sued (and lost) over this alleged story previously, again falling to Cameron's too many tweets rule...

Yup.

https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/sunday-times-journalist-tim-shipman-pays-substantial-damages-to-shadow-minister-over-tweet/

FrancisUrquhart

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eek said:

I love the stories on twitter about a Super injunction without anything to back it up - story seems to be from the reform party done badly.

Especially when one of the people being libelled is an acquaintance of mine..

Wasn't a mainstream journalist sued (and lost) over this alleged story previously, again falling to Cameron's too many tweets rule...

Trained journalists should know better than to publish random rumours they find on Twitter, without proper old-fashioned sources to back up the story.

Prof Peston manages to come up with them all himself ;-)

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

Was it @nico679 who highlighted over the weekend, the threat of a longshoremen strike in the US?

Well the last-minute negotiations failed and the strike has started, 45,000 port workers walked out at midnight.

The union leader is typically bombastic about breaking the employers: https://x.com/sweetcaligurl07/status/1840789188133974296

1st October Surprise, to add to the terrible flooding of recent days.

Given one of the key demands is to restrict the use of automation I don’t see this being a short strike or easily fixed.

There is a lot of automation still to be implemented in US ports

I saw an interesting video of how the Chinese are embracing automation in this area. If the port workers aren't careful it will be like the $20 / hr MacDonald's workers....

The rest of the world is embracing huge amounts of automation in ports.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOew_3db8Xk

There’s many ports in the Middle East and Asia, where the container pretty much arrives at the exit gate without a human touching it, using automated cranes, trucks, and storage systems, all run by a handful of people from a central control room. IIRC Rotterdam is implementing something similar at the moment.

Luckyguy1983

moonshine said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.

Yes this is right isn’t it. But what then.

Personally I think the best candidate in the Labour Party is Andy Burnham, but he's not in Parliament, and if there were a byelection to get him in, Reform would fancy their chances of an upset. So it looks like Reeves or Cooper, neither of whom have covered themselves in glory since Labour have come to power.

moonshine

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eek said:

I love the stories on twitter about a Super injunction without anything to back it up - story seems to be from the reform party done badly.

Especially when one of the people being libelled is an acquaintance of mine..

Wasn't a mainstream journalist sued (and lost) over this alleged story previously, again falling to Cameron's too many tweets rule...

Yup.

https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/sunday-times-journalist-tim-shipman-pays-substantial-damages-to-shadow-minister-over-tweet/

This is being repeated ad nauseum online. Perhaps it’s a honey trap operation, all the compo coming the way of 2TK and the lady in that story means he’ll be able to pay back the good Lord for all the free clobber and digs.

algarkirk

Here's a current reckoning (DYOR): Mr Hat is unlikley to make the last two. The MPs will ensure Kemi doesn't make the last two. The last two are Kenrick and Cleverly.

Kenrick is obviously useless to all sensible people, so he has a good chance of winning with the members. But (eg R4 Today this morning) he is intellectually lazy, talks egregious rubbish, can't defend his own record and feels like one more at home with American politics.

So Cleverly, whose odds have shortened rapidly (Hills 6/1 down from 10/1) remains value. The YouGov poll informs that view - currently it is Jenrick 52 Cleverly 48 in a head to head. These numbers have a strange familiarity but I can't remember why.

moonshine

Luckyguy1983 said:

moonshine said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.

Yes this is right isn’t it. But what then.

Personally I think the best candidate in the Labour Party is Andy Burnham, but he's not in Parliament, and if there were a byelection to get him in, Reform would fancy their chances of an upset. So it looks like Reeves or Cooper, neither of whom have covered themselves in glory since Labour have come to power.

What’s the mechanism for that, when there’s a huge new intake of MPs that are potentially quite fringey in their political views and who might not want a cabinet stitch up in favour of those two? Perhaps it’s going to be done US style. A cabinet nominee who assumes PM, a vote of confidence in the house and a total bypassing of the usual labour leadership rules?

bondegezou

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

If you think Twitter froth is real, you can get good odds on Starmer’s leaving date being 2024 or 2025. I think you’d be throwing money away, but you do you.

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:

"Kemi-kaze"

Very good

Hurrah, somebody spotted my subtle pun/wordplay.

thought it was a divine wind-up...

rottenborough

On topic: I am headed to the poor house.

Hopefully Harris will wipe out my loses.

eek

Luckyguy1983 said:

eek said:

I love the stories on twitter about a Super injunction without anything to back it up - story seems to be from the reform party done badly.

Especially when one of the people being libelled is an acquaintance of mine..

If there were a super injunction, what would back it up?

The super injection is the legal equivalent of "You don't know them, they go to a different school"

TheScreamingEagles

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:

"Kemi-kaze"

Very good

Hurrah, somebody spotted my subtle pun/wordplay.

thought it was a divine wind-up...

Magnificent.

bondegezou

Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

algarkirk

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eek said:

I love the stories on twitter about a Super injunction without anything to back it up - story seems to be from the reform party done badly.

Especially when one of the people being libelled is an acquaintance of mine..

Wasn't a mainstream journalist sued (and lost) over this alleged story previously, again falling to Cameron's too many tweets rule...

Yup.

https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/sunday-times-journalist-tim-shipman-pays-substantial-damages-to-shadow-minister-over-tweet/

Superinjunctions: Step back for two seconds. We know that they exist. If they exist then the following is the case: there is an order of a court compelling or forbidding something(s), and you are not allowed to know what is compelled or forbidden, and who is involved as a party and who has been forbidden, and that the injunction exists.

I may be a bit dim, but I can't think of a more fruitful way of feeding speculation and giving everyone who is effectively immune from libel laws (which is more or less everyone except main stream media) a permanent free hit.

As part of a legal system in a grown up country this is not sustainable.

Scott_xP

bondegezou said:

Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

That's slightly less than Trump stock has lost since it was listed

noneoftheabove

Fishing said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

It's dumb both politically and economically.

I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.

2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.

eek

moonshine said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

moonshine said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.

Yes this is right isn’t it. But what then.

Personally I think the best candidate in the Labour Party is Andy Burnham, but he's not in Parliament, and if there were a byelection to get him in, Reform would fancy their chances of an upset. So it looks like Reeves or Cooper, neither of whom have covered themselves in glory since Labour have come to power.

What’s the mechanism for that, when there’s a huge new intake of MPs that are potentially quite fringey in their political views and who might not want a cabinet stitch up in favour of those two? Perhaps it’s going to be done US style. A cabinet nominee who assumes PM, a vote of confidence in the house and a total bypassing of the usual labour leadership rules?

I would love to have what you are having.

It simply isn't possible unless

1) SKS resigns
2) only one candidate puts their name forward.

And so far we have a few stories about receiving gifts and a very dodgy super injection story that even I know is a pile of kack..

rottenborough

"Particularly striking has been the strange implosion of Kemi Badenoch. The former business minister was once touted as the obvious party leader of the next generation and the “brain” of New Conservatism. It feels a lifetime ago that she exploded on the scene during the 2022 leadership contest. Like Mrs Thatcher, she seemed to radiate sharp lucidity. Like Blair, she seemed to interpret the world prophetically from high ground, capturing in her rhetoric the West’s tectonic populist shifts, the dismal drift towards an ever-greater state and the self-mutilating tendencies of liberalism."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/30/tory-party-leadership-brain-dead-slumber-party/

FrancisUrquhart

Celebrities don't even need a super injunction these days, the legal precedent has set a bar so high that basically the papers can't publish it because its tittle tattle. There has to be real huge value in it becoming public knowledge, hence why footballer plays away, they are never named now.

If I remember correctly, even the Sun couldn't name Huw Edwards because of this.

bondegezou

Reform UK in Wales: https://nation.cymru/news/cronyism-allegations-hit-reform-uk-in-wales/

Peter_the_Punter

bondegezou said:

Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.

eek

rottenborough said:

"Particularly striking has been the strange implosion of Kemi Badenoch. The former business minister was once touted as the obvious party leader of the next generation and the “brain” of New Conservatism. It feels a lifetime ago that she exploded on the scene during the 2022 leadership contest. Like Mrs Thatcher, she seemed to radiate sharp lucidity. Like Blair, she seemed to interpret the world prophetically from high ground, capturing in her rhetoric the West’s tectonic populist shifts, the dismal drift towards an ever-greater state and the self-mutilating tendencies of liberalism."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/30/tory-party-leadership-brain-dead-slumber-party/

I have to ask WTF was she thinking when she spoke about Maternity pay over the weekend.

All the candidates (Jenrick today) seem to be making stupid mistakes...

Nigelb

Peter_the_Punter said:

bondegezou said:

Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.

I still like the bits of it that I like.

https://x.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1840940477862068517
In the 1400s a musical scale began to be used that had 36 tones per octave, instead of out 8 tones.

This is how it sounded.

Granted I do spend a lot more time blocking bots these days; it keeps what I see fairly useful.

TimS

Sad to say I heard that Jenrick interview on Today and I’m not so confident he crashed and burned.

Sure, intellectually she had him bang to rights, but what would listeners have heard? An articulate man with a slightly posh voice telling us that terrorists and paedophiles are coming across the seas to kidnap our children. This sort of nonsense works. Ask Trump.

HYUFD

Cleverly and Jenrick would also be close with Jenrick leading Cleverly by just 4%. Badenoch beats Cleverly by 8% and Jenrick and Badenoch beat Tugendhat by a clearer 16% margin

Luckyguy1983

FrancisUrquhart said:

Celebrities don't even need a super injunction these days, the legal precedent has set a bar so high that basically the papers can't publish it because its tittle tattle. There has to be real huge value in it becoming public knowledge, hence why footballer plays away, they are never named now.

If I remember correctly, even the Sun couldn't name Huw Edwards because of this.

Thanks Leveson, you prick.

HYUFD

algarkirk said:

Here's a current reckoning (DYOR): Mr Hat is unlikley to make the last two. The MPs will ensure Kemi doesn't make the last two. The last two are Kenrick and Cleverly.

Kenrick is obviously useless to all sensible people, so he has a good chance of winning with the members. But (eg R4 Today this morning) he is intellectually lazy, talks egregious rubbish, can't defend his own record and feels like one more at home with American politics.

So Cleverly, whose odds have shortened rapidly (Hills 6/1 down from 10/1) remains value. The YouGov poll informs that view - currently it is Jenrick 52 Cleverly 48 in a head to head. These numbers have a strange familiarity but I can't remember why.

It was also close when Ed Miliband beat David Miliband. Policy aside though while Cleverly is more amicable Jenrick has more energy and more ideas and while my preference is Tugendhat I might vote for Jenrick over Cleverly

Stuartinromford

eek said:

moonshine said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

moonshine said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.

Yes this is right isn’t it. But what then.

Personally I think the best candidate in the Labour Party is Andy Burnham, but he's not in Parliament, and if there were a byelection to get him in, Reform would fancy their chances of an upset. So it looks like Reeves or Cooper, neither of whom have covered themselves in glory since Labour have come to power.

What’s the mechanism for that, when there’s a huge new intake of MPs that are potentially quite fringey in their political views and who might not want a cabinet stitch up in favour of those two? Perhaps it’s going to be done US style. A cabinet nominee who assumes PM, a vote of confidence in the house and a total bypassing of the usual labour leadership rules?

I would love to have what you are having.

It simply isn't possible unless

1) SKS resigns
2) only one candidate puts their name forward.

And so far we have a few stories about receiving gifts and a very dodgy super injection story that even I know is a pile of kack..

It's copium on the right.

It's not easy to dump a PM mid-term and rightly so. Major survived Black Wednesday, Blair survived Iraq.

For the Conservatives to have lost two PMs in quick succession was unprecedented. Until the party has a good story for how they screwed up so much twice in a row, they aren't a serious party of government. And the only one that really works is "I wasn't around then".

So any current Conservative who wants their exile to be less than a decade has to normalise the idea that both sides are equally bad at choosing suitable PMs.

Trouble is, that even if Starmer does turn out to be a Johnsonesque sleazeball (I rather doubt it), he needs to be followed by a nutter who only lasts seven weeks.

Unlikely.

JosiasJessop

Peter_the_Punter said:

bondegezou said:

Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.

It's also far to easy to make a stopid mistake, as I did this morning.

I've never posted anything on Twitter, or retweeted anything.

HYUFD

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election

Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.

Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

Taz

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election

Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.

Graduates like swinging. Fair play.

IanB2

Sandpit said:

Was it @nico679 who highlighted over the weekend, the threat of a longshoremen strike in the US?

Well the last-minute negotiations failed and the strike has started, 45,000 port workers walked out at midnight.

The union leader is typically bombastic about breaking the employers: https://x.com/sweetcaligurl07/status/1840789188133974296

1st October Surprise, to add to the terrible flooding of recent days.

A republican on NPR was speculating yesterday that if this leads to supply shortages it could be a spanner in the Dems’ re-election hopes. Or it was just a bit of straw clutching.

Meanwhile, driving the Delaware Interstate yesterday, these pick-up trucks had driven onto the verge and were nailing up election posters for some Governor candidate, just by the roadside. Is that legal in the US?

bigjohnowls

Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

🟦 CON 31% (+7)
🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

Via
@Moreincommon_
(+/- vs GE2024)

MattW

Good morning everyone.

Interesting piece from Daniel o'Donoghue about a newly developing far right network in the UK - "Active Clubs".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ydnqdq38wo

Taz

Peter_the_Punter said:

bondegezou said:

Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.

It is still fine, by and large, occasionally some fuckwit like Tommy Robinson or Katy Hopkins appears in my timeline. God knows why. I am following and watching mostly old soccer shows from the seventies, pro wresting, investing and amusing meme tweeters.

HYUFD

Luckyguy1983 said:

moonshine said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.

Yes this is right isn’t it. But what then.

Personally I think the best candidate in the Labour Party is Andy Burnham, but he's not in Parliament, and if there were a byelection to get him in, Reform would fancy their chances of an upset. So it looks like Reeves or Cooper, neither of whom have covered themselves in glory since Labour have come to power.

Streeting and Rayner would also fancy their chances

viewcode

Foxy said:

Conservative fringe meeting on immigration discussing how to persuade women to "breed for Britain" in order to "grow more" social care workers, one day after Kemi Badenoch's comments about "excessive" maternity pay.

https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3l5ejp7mcvl2t

Yep, that will win them the female vote!

Are they possessed by the American Right?

Thinking about it, the answer may be "yes". It would explain many things.

Selebian

Peter_the_Punter said:

bondegezou said:

Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.

The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).

Taz

eek said:

rottenborough said:

"Particularly striking has been the strange implosion of Kemi Badenoch. The former business minister was once touted as the obvious party leader of the next generation and the “brain” of New Conservatism. It feels a lifetime ago that she exploded on the scene during the 2022 leadership contest. Like Mrs Thatcher, she seemed to radiate sharp lucidity. Like Blair, she seemed to interpret the world prophetically from high ground, capturing in her rhetoric the West’s tectonic populist shifts, the dismal drift towards an ever-greater state and the self-mutilating tendencies of liberalism."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/30/tory-party-leadership-brain-dead-slumber-party/

I have to ask WTF was she thinking when she spoke about Maternity pay over the weekend.

All the candidates (Jenrick today) seem to be making stupid mistakes...

What has Rob J done today ? He should be in a far more parlous position than he is over the £75K donation

eek

Stuartinromford said:

eek said:

moonshine said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

moonshine said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

moonshine said:

It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.

I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.

Yes this is right isn’t it. But what then.

Personally I think the best candidate in the Labour Party is Andy Burnham, but he's not in Parliament, and if there were a byelection to get him in, Reform would fancy their chances of an upset. So it looks like Reeves or Cooper, neither of whom have covered themselves in glory since Labour have come to power.

What’s the mechanism for that, when there’s a huge new intake of MPs that are potentially quite fringey in their political views and who might not want a cabinet stitch up in favour of those two? Perhaps it’s going to be done US style. A cabinet nominee who assumes PM, a vote of confidence in the house and a total bypassing of the usual labour leadership rules?

I would love to have what you are having.

It simply isn't possible unless

1) SKS resigns
2) only one candidate puts their name forward.

And so far we have a few stories about receiving gifts and a very dodgy super injection story that even I know is a pile of kack..

It's copium on the right.

It's not easy to dump a PM mid-term and rightly so. Major survived Black Wednesday, Blair survived Iraq.

For the Conservatives to have lost two PMs in quick succession was unprecedented. Until the party has a good story for how they screwed up so much twice in a row, they aren't a serious party of government. And the only one that really works is "I wasn't around then".

So any current Conservative who wants their exile to be less than a decade has to normalise the idea that both sides are equally bad at choosing suitable PMs.

Trouble is, that even if Starmer does turn out to be a Johnsonesque sleazeball (I rather doubt it), he needs to be followed by a nutter who only lasts seven weeks.

Unlikely.

Very unlikely - because Labour MPs won't be stupid enough to let just their membership pick the next PM - so you would see a stitch up like 2007, or at most, 2 centrist candidates getting nominated.

What you won't see is a left wing candidate getting enough nominations to stand after Corbyn...

I'm still trying to grasp how Tory MPs thought Truss was a suitable candidate..

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh dear, more bad polling for Kemi-kaze

Savanta poll puts Badenoch on the lowest net favorability with either Tory voters or the public, +23 and -11 respectively



https://x.com/pimlicat/status/1841009427320582234

Good poll for Jenrick, second best net favourables with all voters after Tugendhat. Good for Tugendhat who does best with Tory and all voters, bad for Kemi who polls worst with all and Tory voters

Nigelb

bigjohnowls said:

Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

🟦 CON 31% (+7)
🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

Via
@Moreincommon_
(+/- vs GE2024)

Where do you stand on that, BJO ?

I find it hard to choose.

stodge

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election

Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.

Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

Graduates voted 42% Labour, 18% Conservative, 15% Liberal Democrat, 9% Green and 8% Reform in July. As might be expected, the strongest groups for Labour, the LDs and Greens, the weakest for Conservative and Reform.

Whether that's an example of education or political indoctrination at Universities is a matter for debate of course and I'm sure everyone has a view (or perhaps not).

MarqueeMark

bigjohnowls said:

Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

🟦 CON 31% (+7)
🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

Via
@Moreincommon_
(+/- vs GE2024)

Fickle fuckers these voters...

stodge

MarqueeMark said:

bigjohnowls said:

Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

🟦 CON 31% (+7)
🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

Via
@Moreincommon_
(+/- vs GE2024)

Fickle fuckers these voters...

This was polling from last week and little surprise after the events of the past month or so.

I expect the best speech of the coming week to come from Rishi Sunak, oddly enough. He actually started the Conservative recovery on Friday July 5th by apologising to the electorate - I look forward to any kind of mea culpa from this week's Parade of the Unelectables.

JosiasJessop

Nigelb said:

bigjohnowls said:

Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

🟦 CON 31% (+7)
🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

Via
@Moreincommon_
(+/- vs GE2024)

Where do you stand on that, BJO ?

I find it hard to choose.

The current Labour government all the way for me atm, despite their less than illustrious start.

Why?

*) They've only had three months to get their feet under the table. Not enough time to make any practical positive difference.

*) The Tories are now essentially currently leaderless and rudderless. There is zero reason to believe a Conservative government would be 'better' than the government we have at the moment. Whilst there is hope that Labour and Starmer might learn from their early mistakes. Let's give them a chance.

*) The comedy value. I'd expected Starmer to be very, very boring. He isn't, but not for positive reasons.

This view may change over coming months and years, as the Tories get a new leader and (hopefully) some sane policies; and if Labour continue to be a shambles.

Nigelb

MarqueeMark said:

bigjohnowls said:

Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

🟦 CON 31% (+7)
🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

Via
@Moreincommon_
(+/- vs GE2024)

Fickle fuckers these voters...

The plurality, sensibly, want nothing to do with them.
I'm not sure what the Tories have done to be +7, so you're right in that respect.

Nigelb

Some good advice for those betting on the US elections.

For better or for worse, our model makes zero inferences on early vote data. It has questionable historical precedent* and really only has use in runoff elections (like Georgia)

*unless your name is Jon Ralston and you live in the state of Nevada.
https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1840969566056562974

Love this follow up:
Everyone asks "why can't you use early voting data when Jon Ralston does it?"

When Lou Pinella played for the Yankees, he asked the owner "why can't I have long hair if Jesus did?"

So Steinbrenner points to his pool and says "walk across that and you can have long hair too."

algarkirk

BBC radio (File On Four) is taking the Letby thing seriously. I think this may be the first time the BBC has waded in, and this particular programme should be interesting. Details and long intro here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89l05e97vqo

Theuniondivvie

Nigelb said:

bigjohnowls said:

Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

🟦 CON 31% (+7)
🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

Via
@Moreincommon_
(+/- vs GE2024)

Where do you stand on that, BJO ?

I find it hard to choose.

Tricky, gonorrhea or syph?

There's always a yellow or green discharge I suppose.

Sandpit

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

Was it @nico679 who highlighted over the weekend, the threat of a longshoremen strike in the US?

Well the last-minute negotiations failed and the strike has started, 45,000 port workers walked out at midnight.

The union leader is typically bombastic about breaking the employers: https://x.com/sweetcaligurl07/status/1840789188133974296

1st October Surprise, to add to the terrible flooding of recent days.

A republican on NPR was speculating yesterday that if this leads to supply shortages it could be a spanner in the Dems’ re-election hopes. Or it was just a bit of straw clutching.

Meanwhile, driving the Delaware Interstate yesterday, these pick-up trucks had driven onto the verge and were nailing up election posters for some Governor candidate, just by the roadside. Is that legal in the US?

Well it’s unlikely to be favourable to incumbents if shelves start to look empty a few weeks before the election, but even in the middle of the pandemic port chaos in the US things didn’t really filter down to the retail store level.

What was noticed yesterday, was Trump turning up in North Carolina to speak to disaster relief volunteers and first responders, accompanied by trucks full of drinking water and fuel. There appears to be little so far by way of visible Federal government response, the helicopters in the air were all either private citizens helping out, or news crews surveying the scene. DeSantis in Florida has ordered their National Guard helicopters to head North to Georgia to assist there.
Biden and Harris have both said the response is coming, but they do appear slow out of the gate.

bigjohnowls

Nigelb said:

bigjohnowls said:

Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

🟦 CON 31% (+7)
🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

Via
@Moreincommon_
(+/- vs GE2024)

Where do you stand on that, BJO ?

I find it hard to choose.

Neither for me.

They are as I have been saying for over 3 years as bad as each other under SKS