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Is Kemi-kaze Badenoch about to blow an 18% lead? – politicalbetting.com

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    Where do you stand on that, BJO ?

    I find it hard to choose.
    Neither for me.

    They are as I have been saying for over 3 years as bad as each other under SKS
    BJO is still affiliated to Socialists for Boris.
    No I am in the Green Party. Plenty of Socialists there too.

    You are a fully fledged red Tory

    Own it
    You supported Boris and therefore more Tory than I’ve ever been.
    I have never voted Tory ever

    You did it 2 months ago
    You’re on record repeatedly supporting a Tory PM. You loved a bit of Boris. Whilst I’m sure you regret that like a summer fling, it does somewhat disqualify you from credibly calling out anyone else as a Tory. Ever.
    No PB legend it may have become.

    Its not true. Never voted Tory, never voted Boris

    I only ever said I thought Boris's levelling up in my local Community was an excellent thing and had produced more benefits than 20 years of Labour councillors. Which still remains true despite SKS fans expectations

    I also said thousands of times SKS was a horrible human being and a Tory that was no better than Boris and i thank PM SKS for proving me correct both in terms of freebie greed and Tory policies.

    Enjoy your 5 years of Red Tory shite then a lifetime of regrets.

    IMO this will be the last ever LAB (in name only obvs) Government ever.
    BJO ❤️ BJ
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    I get about one new follower a day, always a bot. Musk's claim he wanted to stop the bots (subtly different from Sunak's "stop the boats") proved also to be a lie.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

    https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

    Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

    Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election
    Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

    Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

    They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

    Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.
    Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

    As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

    Graduates voted 42% Labour, 18% Conservative, 15% Liberal Democrat, 9% Green and 8% Reform in July. As might be expected, the strongest groups for Labour, the LDs and Greens, the weakest for Conservative and Reform.

    Whether that's an example of education or political indoctrination at Universities is a matter for debate of course and I'm sure everyone has a view (or perhaps not).
    Cameron won graduates but since they have voted Labour mostly, however Boris won without graduates as did May
    According to Yougov Labour was also at >40% with high earners, 50-100k bracket.
    Pre tax rises, though Boris did best with average earners not high earners and it is average earners who decide elections.

    Only 10% of voters earn more than £50k and the LDs percentage wise get the highest percentage of their voters from high earners now not Labour or the Tories
    So according to Yougov, the largest cohort is Labour voting, that LDs get a smaller cohort overall but that it makes up a larger % of their total vote ... shrugs
    I'm a bit dubious about how accurate the Yougov sub setting is tbh, they're filtering very finely from a relatively small sample. Others might have more knowledgeable insight.
    Look at the poshest home counties seats now Esher and Walton, Epsom and Ewell, St Albans, Winchester, Henley, Maidenhead, Tunbridge Wells, Chesham and Amersham etc all now have LD MPs. As do some of the wealthiest parts of London like Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Twickenham
    Gails = LD
    Even Epping now has LD councillors mostly and a Gail's
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Carnyx said:

    geoffw said:

    kjh said:

    geoffw said:

    Happy 100th Birthday Jimmy Carter.

    Peanut butter forever!

    Decades ago, when my son was young, we decided to try and grow a peanut bush, so we bought a bag or (unroasted) peanuts and gave it a go. Not only did it grow (in his bedroom) we actually got a few fully grown peanuts when we dug it up.

    Completely failed with a pineapple top, but I still consider that a success for making a young lad's day.
    Do you remember (prob not, too young) the harebrained Labour (Attlee/Strachey) groundnut scheme for Tanganyika? Jimmy C did it better in deepest Georgia

    I actually sold an MP on reviving the scheme to make biofuel from the nuts, to go zero emissions.
    Oh, what did you suggest for tractors instead of old war surplus Shermans? Not zero emissions if new, tbf.
    I didn’t that detailed. Just ground nuts in East Africa for biofuel.

    He’d annoyed me by claiming that the problem was that the government didn’t boldly invest big money in new ideas. As opposed to seed money for test projects, back the ones that work etc….
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141
    MattW said:

    Brains Trust Question.

    My photo quota today is a Britain First activist called Andrew Edge, suited and booted for a demo in Belfast that apparently drew 23 people (that number could have been ironic, meaning "flop").

    Who is the jowly chap in the photo on the wall. I think I recognise it - I was wondering if it was a Monday Club character or someone like John Tyndall. Any ideas?

    Qtwtain in any case.
    Next trousers bunched up over yer ankles!!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Anyway just to cheer us up this year is predicted to have a cold winter.

    Sir Victor Meldrew and Reckless Reeves will be telling us all to turn the thermostats down.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    More in Common haven't released the details yet, so that's from this Telegraph article: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/30/more-people-prefer-sunak-government-to-starmer-poll-finds/ It's a forced choice between the two parties. Other questions in the poll pretty bad for Labour.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    What actual completed investments has the state made over the past 30 years though ?

    Crossrail & I can't think of much else. Plenty on repairs and maintenance, but actual new completed big projects... ??
    Eurostar first public service November 1994 so just squeaks in. Will be plenty of schools, hospitals, telecoms, water and roads, just not enough.
    Chunnel was completed 6 May 1994 so I wasn't counting that in the 30 year band. Schools, hospitals, Telecoms, water & roads are repairs maintenance & upgrades to keep pace with our rising population (Or not :p ) (And heavier cars) to my mind.
    Our power generation capacity has decreased from the previous 30 years though and that's a first order approximation to industrial capacity. Offshore wind replacing coal is a modal shift in power generation so that might count.
    On a slight tangent I have no idea how we get to net zero for power generation by 2030 is it. I mean I can see how we get 70 +, 80 or even 90% there but there's just not the storage for stillish & gloomy winter conditions to get to 100% to my mind.
    Presumably you could (theoretically at least) get to Net Zero by generating 105% and exporting the excess, then generating 5% from Gas when really needed...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 620

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

    https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

    Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

    Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election
    Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

    Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

    They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

    Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.
    Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

    As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

    Graduates voted 42% Labour, 18% Conservative, 15% Liberal Democrat, 9% Green and 8% Reform in July. As might be expected, the strongest groups for Labour, the LDs and Greens, the weakest for Conservative and Reform.

    Whether that's an example of education or political indoctrination at Universities is a matter for debate of course and I'm sure everyone has a view (or perhaps not).
    Cameron won graduates but since they have voted Labour mostly, however Boris won without graduates as did May
    According to Yougov Labour was also at >40% with high earners, 50-100k bracket.
    Pre tax rises, though Boris did best with average earners not high earners and it is average earners who decide elections.

    Only 10% of voters earn more than £50k and the LDs percentage wise get the highest percentage of their voters from high earners now not Labour or the Tories
    So according to Yougov, the largest cohort is Labour voting, that LDs get a smaller cohort overall but that it makes up a larger % of their total vote ... shrugs
    I'm a bit dubious about how accurate the Yougov sub setting is tbh, they're filtering very finely from a relatively small sample. Others might have more knowledgeable insight.
    Look at the poshest home counties seats now Esher and Walton, Epsom and Ewell, St Albans, Winchester, Henley, Maidenhead, Tunbridge Wells, Chesham and Amersham etc all now have LD MPs. As do some of the wealthiest parts of London like Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Twickenham
    Gails = LD
    Indeed, so affluent, Remain, centre-right blue wall home counties.
    Might hold their nose to vote Jenrick / Badenoch if they're feeling particularly exercised about their tax rates but would really prefer not to vote for a racist, little Englander, Reform aping Conservative party. Probably lost to the LDs unless there's another Cameron-like leader.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    What actual completed investments has the state made over the past 30 years though ?

    Crossrail & I can't think of much else. Plenty on repairs and maintenance, but actual new completed big projects... ??
    Queensferry Crossing & Borders Railway, both opened by QEII so must be REALLY important.
    Bathgate electrification through to the Wild West.

    Edit: I won't suggest the electrification of the London-Bristol main line as that was so badly screwed up.
    Sone big chunks of the A9 have been dualled, tbf. Fochabers bypass. A few new rail stations and realignments in the north (all incredibly ugly). Leven link.

    I'd have guessed offshore wind is probably the most significant investment though, enabled by the state. Will reach 20gw in the few years - 30 by 2030.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422
    Selebian said:

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

    Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement :smile: I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).
    Come to BlueSky instead. That's increasingly where academic discussion is moving. Although the best place for publicising research outputs I find is probably LinkedIn.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,708

    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

    It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

    In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

    It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

    There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

    Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.
    I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.
    Yes this is right isn’t it. But what then.
    Personally I think the best candidate in the Labour Party is Andy Burnham, but he's not in Parliament, and if there were a byelection to get him in, Reform would fancy their chances of an upset. So it looks like Reeves or Cooper, neither of whom have covered themselves in glory since Labour have come to power.
    What’s the mechanism for that, when there’s a huge new intake of MPs that are potentially quite fringey in their political views and who might not want a cabinet stitch up in favour of those two? Perhaps it’s going to be done US style. A cabinet nominee who assumes PM, a vote of confidence in the house and a total bypassing of the usual labour leadership rules?
    I would love to have what you are having.

    It simply isn't possible unless

    1) SKS resigns
    2) only one candidate puts their name forward.

    And so far we have a few stories about receiving gifts and a very dodgy super injection story that even I know is a pile of kack..
    It's copium on the right.

    It's not easy to dump a PM mid-term and rightly so. Major survived Black Wednesday, Blair survived Iraq.

    For the Conservatives to have lost two PMs in quick succession was unprecedented. Until the party has a good story for how they screwed up so much twice in a row, they aren't a serious party of government. And the only one that really works is "I wasn't around then".

    So any current Conservative who wants their exile to be less than a decade has to normalise the idea that both sides are equally bad at choosing suitable PMs.

    Trouble is, that even if Starmer does turn out to be a Johnsonesque sleazeball (I rather doubt it), he needs to be followed by a nutter who only lasts seven weeks.

    Unlikely.
    I shouldn't be finding all this so funny, but I'll be honest, I am.
    Well yes. This rather mundane speculation of how/if Sir Keir will be given his marching orders after the man just won a humongous majority is, to say the least, unexpected. Maybe it's an early squall and things will move on, but collapse in support this early and to this degree is so unprecedented we just don't know. This could already be terminal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    One thing I do not understand is why our governments (which can borrow at lower rates than commercial companies) have not insisted on taking large stakes in offshore wind developments. They clearly provide a predictable profit stream, a fair proportion of which goes overseas.

    If we are indeed overpaying for renewable electricity, couldn't more of the money at least go back into the exchequer ?

    What's the flaw in this reasoning ?
    AIU it appears to go back to failed investments in industry from the sixties and seventies such that investment has become a bad thing for a couple of generations of politicians.
    But government was pretty well guaranteeing a return, by setting a guaranteed price for the electricity.
    UK gov makes consistently terrible investment decisions and this doesn't change much by party. I think the main reasons are previous examples of failure and the positive pay offs happen after the politicians are judged.

    It is much harder to be criticised for something you never did, than something you championed which ended up over budget or somehow went wrong.
    When I was younger and more ignorant, I actually tried selling the DARPA idea to various MPs.

    I eventually noticed that, while they claimed to like the idea, they actually wanted to “improve” it by

    1) picking the winners
    2) throw big money into 1)

    As in, the complete reverse of the DARPA idea. Which is small amounts of seed money to a range of ideas in a space, see which ones actually work…
    Slightly more to it than that - one program director with almost dictatorial powers, but a limited term of office. And no political decision making, of course.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    I get about one new follower a day, always a bot. Musk's claim he wanted to stop the bots (subtly different from Sunak's "stop the boats") proved also to be a lie.
    I'm always astonished by the number of nubile young lady followers I get with an apparent strong interest in epidemiology :blush:
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    One thing I do not understand is why our governments (which can borrow at lower rates than commercial companies) have not insisted on taking large stakes in offshore wind developments. They clearly provide a predictable profit stream, a fair proportion of which goes overseas.

    If we are indeed overpaying for renewable electricity, couldn't more of the money at least go back into the exchequer ?

    What's the flaw in this reasoning ?
    The flaw in the reasoning is that we don't have the capacity to borrow the money and that we structured the deals so that the builders of the wind farms bid on the price at which they electricity was sold - we couldn't have done that if the government was (part) building the farms.
    We do though. The market gets spooked when governments borrow for current spending without any consideration for servicing or paying it back; just unjustified assertions as the tax cuts paying for themselves. Genuine investment will be viewed more favourably. Likewise, large but one-off spending will be tolerated by lenders as long as there's a recognition that the largesse will end and normality resume once the emergency is over.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956

    MattW said:

    Brains Trust Question.

    My photo quota today is a Britain First activist called Andrew Edge, suited and booted for a demo in Belfast that apparently drew 23 people (that number could have been ironic, meaning "flop").

    Who is the jowly chap in the photo on the wall. I think I recognise it - I was wondering if it was a Monday Club character or someone like John Tyndall. Any ideas?

    Qtwtain in any case.
    Next trousers bunched up over yer ankles!!
    He’s somebody in need of Lord Alli’s money.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422
    algarkirk said:

    BBC radio (File On Four) is taking the Letby thing seriously. I think this may be the first time the BBC has waded in, and this particular programme should be interesting. Details and long intro here:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89l05e97vqo

    Medical evidence is complicated, which is a challenge for juries. But the examples there all look similar to previous ones, trying to pick holes here and there, while ignoring key evidence or, indeed, that these matters were discussed in the trial.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    MattW said:

    Brains Trust Question.

    My photo quota today is a Britain First activist called Andrew Edge, suited and booted for a demo in Belfast that apparently drew 23 people (that number could have been ironic, meaning "flop").

    Who is the jowly chap in the photo on the wall. I think I recognise it - I was wondering if it was a Monday Club character or someone like John Tyndall. Any ideas?

    Qtwtain in any case.
    Next trousers bunched up over yer ankles!!
    He’s somebody in need of Lord Alli’s money.
    I don't think it's a suit either. The jacket looks darker than the trousers.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    Selebian said:

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

    Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement :smile: I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).
    Come to BlueSky instead. That's increasingly where academic discussion is moving. Although the best place for publicising research outputs I find is probably LinkedIn.
    I do have a bluesky account and repost there, but in my niche Twitter still reins supreme. LinkedIn is pretty dead for us, at least for wider engagement - the academics are on there, but not many of the clinicians/third sector partners - again, in my field.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    Anyway just to cheer us up this year is predicted to have a cold winter.

    Sir Victor Meldrew and Reckless Reeves will be telling us all to turn the thermostats down.

    For those with an oil boiler, good job the Saudis are promising a wall of supply then.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Selebian said:

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

    Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement :smile: I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).
    Come to BlueSky instead. That's increasingly where academic discussion is moving. Although the best place for publicising research outputs I find is probably LinkedIn.
    I started making a list of present/former pb or pb-adjacent people I recognized with a view to making a starter pack or something. Ping me on there if you want to be added to it.
    https://bsky.app/profile/goat.navy/lists/3l2347tg6fd2r
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

    https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

    Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

    Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election
    Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

    Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

    They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

    Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.
    Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

    As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

    Graduates voted 42% Labour, 18% Conservative, 15% Liberal Democrat, 9% Green and 8% Reform in July. As might be expected, the strongest groups for Labour, the LDs and Greens, the weakest for Conservative and Reform.

    Whether that's an example of education or political indoctrination at Universities is a matter for debate of course and I'm sure everyone has a view (or perhaps not).
    University students are encouraged to weigh up the arguments for and against, and make a reasoned decision, as opposed to just believing everything they read. No doubt a similar poll of regular newspaper readers would show the opposite effect.
    Note that anything citing 'graduates' as a characteristic is likely to be to a large extent a proxy for age groups.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    One thing I do not understand is why our governments (which can borrow at lower rates than commercial companies) have not insisted on taking large stakes in offshore wind developments. They clearly provide a predictable profit stream, a fair proportion of which goes overseas.

    If we are indeed overpaying for renewable electricity, couldn't more of the money at least go back into the exchequer ?

    What's the flaw in this reasoning ?
    AIU it appears to go back to failed investments in industry from the sixties and seventies such that investment has become a bad thing for a couple of generations of politicians.
    But government was pretty well guaranteeing a return, by setting a guaranteed price for the electricity.
    UK gov makes consistently terrible investment decisions and this doesn't change much by party. I think the main reasons are previous examples of failure and the positive pay offs happen after the politicians are judged.

    It is much harder to be criticised for something you never did, than something you championed which ended up over budget or somehow went wrong.
    Had we applied that approach to the water industry, the consumer would probably still have been ripped off, but at least half of the revenue would have stayed in the UK, rather than disappearing overseas.
    Macquarie made a lot of their money effectively borrowing from themselves to gear up the industry. So they took out dividends in the equity and got paid interest on what was effectively government guaranteed borrowing (at rates more expensive than government could itself have borrowed).

    Privatised monopolies don't work in the public interest.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

    https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

    Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

    Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election
    Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

    Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

    They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

    Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.
    Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

    As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

    Graduates voted 42% Labour, 18% Conservative, 15% Liberal Democrat, 9% Green and 8% Reform in July. As might be expected, the strongest groups for Labour, the LDs and Greens, the weakest for Conservative and Reform.

    Whether that's an example of education or political indoctrination at Universities is a matter for debate of course and I'm sure everyone has a view (or perhaps not).
    Cameron won graduates but since they have voted Labour mostly, however Boris won without graduates as did May
    According to Yougov Labour was also at >40% with high earners, 50-100k bracket.
    Pre tax rises, though Boris did best with average earners not high earners and it is average earners who decide elections.

    Only 10% of voters earn more than £50k and the LDs percentage wise get the highest percentage of their voters from high earners now not Labour or the Tories
    So according to Yougov, the largest cohort is Labour voting, that LDs get a smaller cohort overall but that it makes up a larger % of their total vote ... shrugs
    I'm a bit dubious about how accurate the Yougov sub setting is tbh, they're filtering very finely from a relatively small sample. Others might have more knowledgeable insight.
    Look at the poshest home counties seats now Esher and Walton, Epsom and Ewell, St Albans, Winchester, Henley, Maidenhead, Tunbridge Wells, Chesham and Amersham etc all now have LD MPs. As do some of the wealthiest parts of London like Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Twickenham
    Gails = LD
    Even Epping now has LD councillors mostly and a Gail's
    You need to move to somewhere more, shall we say, ‘down market’, so you will fit in.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

    https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

    Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

    Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election
    Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

    Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

    They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

    Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.
    Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

    As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

    Graduates voted 42% Labour, 18% Conservative, 15% Liberal Democrat, 9% Green and 8% Reform in July. As might be expected, the strongest groups for Labour, the LDs and Greens, the weakest for Conservative and Reform.

    Whether that's an example of education or political indoctrination at Universities is a matter for debate of course and I'm sure everyone has a view (or perhaps not).
    University students are encouraged to weigh up the arguments for and against, and make a reasoned decision, as opposed to just believing everything they read. No doubt a similar poll of regular newspaper readers would show the opposite effect.
    Note that anything citing 'graduates' as a characteristic is likely to be to a large extent a proxy for age groups.
    Which takes us straight to the relative death rates for graduates and non-graduates…

    The Tories are fishing in a shrinking pond, and buying a longer fishing rod isn’t the answer.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    One thing I do not understand is why our governments (which can borrow at lower rates than commercial companies) have not insisted on taking large stakes in offshore wind developments. They clearly provide a predictable profit stream, a fair proportion of which goes overseas.

    If we are indeed overpaying for renewable electricity, couldn't more of the money at least go back into the exchequer ?

    What's the flaw in this reasoning ?
    AIU it appears to go back to failed investments in industry from the sixties and seventies such that investment has become a bad thing for a couple of generations of politicians.
    But government was pretty well guaranteeing a return, by setting a guaranteed price for the electricity.
    UK gov makes consistently terrible investment decisions and this doesn't change much by party. I think the main reasons are previous examples of failure and the positive pay offs happen after the politicians are judged.

    It is much harder to be criticised for something you never did, than something you championed which ended up over budget or somehow went wrong.
    When I was younger and more ignorant, I actually tried selling the DARPA idea to various MPs.

    I eventually noticed that, while they claimed to like the idea, they actually wanted to “improve” it by

    1) picking the winners
    2) throw big money into 1)

    As in, the complete reverse of the DARPA idea. Which is small amounts of seed money to a range of ideas in a space, see which ones actually work…
    Slightly more to it than that - one program director with almost dictatorial powers, but a limited term of office. And no political decision making, of course.
    You can't not have decision-making though. Ultimately, the politicians have to be accountable, which means they have to have some degree of power. In an ideal world, they just pick highly capable people who then run things independently but civil servants and bureaucrats can also suffer from group-think and ignore ideas out of their reference zone. Perhaps a new organisation might not suffer from those problems, if staffed with people from outside that culture but I wouldn't bet on it. To take a practical example, Churchill's direct interventions could be a time-wasting pain in the backside for the military and civil chiefs at times (quite a lot of times) but on the other hand they were also critical in, for example, giving the work at Bletchley Park the priority it needed and deserved.

    What's needed is a proactive culture without fear of failure. Neither of these tend to sit very comfortably in the public sector (or, indeed, within the private sector and in particular large, established organisations).
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    What actual completed investments has the state made over the past 30 years though ?

    Crossrail & I can't think of much else. Plenty on repairs and maintenance, but actual new completed big projects... ??
    Queensferry Crossing & Borders Railway, both opened by QEII so must be REALLY important.
    Bathgate electrification through to the Wild West.

    Edit: I won't suggest the electrification of the London-Bristol main line as that was so badly screwed up.
    Sone big chunks of the A9 have been dualled, tbf. Fochabers bypass. A few new rail stations and realignments in the north (all incredibly ugly). Leven link.

    I'd have guessed offshore wind is probably the most significant investment though, enabled by the state. Will reach 20gw in the few years - 30 by 2030.
    A lot of these investments have indirect benefits (economic growth and tax revenue) but nothing direct, because government is not investing in income generating assets. That’s where roads are a problem - unless they are toll roads. The cost hits the treasury P&L and there’s no offsetting income.

    That’s where railways, or road pricing, or direct investment in power generation could help. Then government has an income stream so the treasury numbers and there’s case for borrowing can better add up.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    edited October 1

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    One thing I do not understand is why our governments (which can borrow at lower rates than commercial companies) have not insisted on taking large stakes in offshore wind developments. They clearly provide a predictable profit stream, a fair proportion of which goes overseas.

    If we are indeed overpaying for renewable electricity, couldn't more of the money at least go back into the exchequer ?

    What's the flaw in this reasoning ?
    The flaw in the reasoning is that we don't have the capacity to borrow the money and that we structured the deals so that the builders of the wind farms bid on the price at which they electricity was sold - we couldn't have done that if the government was (part) building the farms.
    We do though. The market gets spooked when governments borrow for current spending without any consideration for servicing or paying it back; just unjustified assertions as the tax cuts paying for themselves. Genuine investment will be viewed more favourably. Likewise, large but one-off spending will be tolerated by lenders as long as there's a recognition that the largesse will end and normality resume once the emergency is over.
    Counterpoint - HS2

    If we can't build the capacity our railway needs to meet demand we definitely don't have the money to invest in wind turbines which the private sector are willing to invest in... Yes the public may be paying a slightly higher price for energy but it's small relative to other screwups..
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,920

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

    https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

    Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

    Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election
    Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

    Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

    They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

    Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.
    Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

    As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

    Graduates voted 42% Labour, 18% Conservative, 15% Liberal Democrat, 9% Green and 8% Reform in July. As might be expected, the strongest groups for Labour, the LDs and Greens, the weakest for Conservative and Reform.

    Whether that's an example of education or political indoctrination at Universities is a matter for debate of course and I'm sure everyone has a view (or perhaps not).
    Cameron won graduates but since they have voted Labour mostly, however Boris won without graduates as did May
    According to Yougov Labour was also at >40% with high earners, 50-100k bracket.
    Pre tax rises, though Boris did best with average earners not high earners and it is average earners who decide elections.

    Only 10% of voters earn more than £50k and the LDs percentage wise get the highest percentage of their voters from high earners now not Labour or the Tories
    So according to Yougov, the largest cohort is Labour voting, that LDs get a smaller cohort overall but that it makes up a larger % of their total vote ... shrugs
    I'm a bit dubious about how accurate the Yougov sub setting is tbh, they're filtering very finely from a relatively small sample. Others might have more knowledgeable insight.
    Look at the poshest home counties seats now Esher and Walton, Epsom and Ewell, St Albans, Winchester, Henley, Maidenhead, Tunbridge Wells, Chesham and Amersham etc all now have LD MPs. As do some of the wealthiest parts of London like Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Twickenham
    They'll all return to the blues when the LibDems can do sod all about them getting taxed until the pips squeak...
    But what are you Conservatives going to do about it over the next five years? You are impotent.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

    https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

    Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

    Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election
    Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

    Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

    They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

    Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.
    Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

    As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

    Graduates voted 42% Labour, 18% Conservative, 15% Liberal Democrat, 9% Green and 8% Reform in July. As might be expected, the strongest groups for Labour, the LDs and Greens, the weakest for Conservative and Reform.

    Whether that's an example of education or political indoctrination at Universities is a matter for debate of course and I'm sure everyone has a view (or perhaps not).
    Cameron won graduates but since they have voted Labour mostly, however Boris won without graduates as did May
    According to Yougov Labour was also at >40% with high earners, 50-100k bracket.
    Pre tax rises, though Boris did best with average earners not high earners and it is average earners who decide elections.

    Only 10% of voters earn more than £50k and the LDs percentage wise get the highest percentage of their voters from high earners now not Labour or the Tories
    So according to Yougov, the largest cohort is Labour voting, that LDs get a smaller cohort overall but that it makes up a larger % of their total vote ... shrugs
    I'm a bit dubious about how accurate the Yougov sub setting is tbh, they're filtering very finely from a relatively small sample. Others might have more knowledgeable insight.
    Look at the poshest home counties seats now Esher and Walton, Epsom and Ewell, St Albans, Winchester, Henley, Maidenhead, Tunbridge Wells, Chesham and Amersham etc all now have LD MPs. As do some of the wealthiest parts of London like Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Twickenham
    Gails = LD
    Indeed, so affluent, Remain, centre-right blue wall home counties.
    Might hold their nose to vote Jenrick / Badenoch if they're feeling particularly exercised about their tax rates but would really prefer not to vote for a racist, little Englander, Reform aping Conservative party. Probably lost to the LDs unless there's another Cameron-like leader.
    Quite good in the FT today on why the leadership candidates are so dire - https://www.ft.com/content/b6c94e2f-bee5-41dd-9e25-d057e69aa4ff

    "In 2024, a successful economically liberal graduate in their early thirties was about as likely to vote Conservative as they were to vote Green...

    ...So, the Tories’ difficulties with mid-career voters aren’t just an electoral disaster — they are a major problem for their talent pipeline...

    ...Almost by definition, when your 30- and 40-something politicians are drawn from a narrow slice of the electorate, they tend to be pretty eccentric."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,975
    moonshine said:

    Anyway just to cheer us up this year is predicted to have a cold winter.

    Sir Victor Meldrew and Reckless Reeves will be telling us all to turn the thermostats down.

    For those with an oil boiler, good job the Saudis are promising a wall of supply then.
    Oil price is down quite a bit in the last couple of months. Obviously Binken’s call to MBS eventually got through.

    Just about the best thing for the world economy in the coming months, would be a repeat of the Saudis’ willy-waving competition with Putin that we saw at the start of the pandemic.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

    https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

    Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

    Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election
    Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

    Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

    They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

    Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.
    Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

    As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

    Graduates voted 42% Labour, 18% Conservative, 15% Liberal Democrat, 9% Green and 8% Reform in July. As might be expected, the strongest groups for Labour, the LDs and Greens, the weakest for Conservative and Reform.

    Whether that's an example of education or political indoctrination at Universities is a matter for debate of course and I'm sure everyone has a view (or perhaps not).
    Cameron won graduates but since they have voted Labour mostly, however Boris won without graduates as did May
    According to Yougov Labour was also at >40% with high earners, 50-100k bracket.
    Pre tax rises, though Boris did best with average earners not high earners and it is average earners who decide elections.

    Only 10% of voters earn more than £50k and the LDs percentage wise get the highest percentage of their voters from high earners now not Labour or the Tories
    So according to Yougov, the largest cohort is Labour voting, that LDs get a smaller cohort overall but that it makes up a larger % of their total vote ... shrugs
    I'm a bit dubious about how accurate the Yougov sub setting is tbh, they're filtering very finely from a relatively small sample. Others might have more knowledgeable insight.
    Look at the poshest home counties seats now Esher and Walton, Epsom and Ewell, St Albans, Winchester, Henley, Maidenhead, Tunbridge Wells, Chesham and Amersham etc all now have LD MPs. As do some of the wealthiest parts of London like Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Twickenham
    They'll all return to the blues when the LibDems can do sod all about them getting taxed until the pips squeak...
    But what are you Conservatives going to do about it over the next five years? You are impotent.
    I think the argument goes that the Tories will look like they may get into power so voting for the Lib Dems may keep the Tories in.

    The counter argument is that the Lib Dem vote is efficient while the Tory vote isn't and with Reform sat where it is the tories may lose even more seats at the next election.

    At best the Tories best hope of winning them is that they come first in a three horse races between Tory / Labour / Reform in seats Labour currently hold.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    One thing I do not understand is why our governments (which can borrow at lower rates than commercial companies) have not insisted on taking large stakes in offshore wind developments. They clearly provide a predictable profit stream, a fair proportion of which goes overseas.

    If we are indeed overpaying for renewable electricity, couldn't more of the money at least go back into the exchequer ?

    What's the flaw in this reasoning ?
    The flaw in the reasoning is that we don't have the capacity to borrow the money and that we structured the deals so that the builders of the wind farms bid on the price at which they electricity was sold - we couldn't have done that if the government was (part) building the farms.
    We do though. The market gets spooked when governments borrow for current spending without any consideration for servicing or paying it back; just unjustified assertions as the tax cuts paying for themselves. Genuine investment will be viewed more favourably. Likewise, large but one-off spending will be tolerated by lenders as long as there's a recognition that the largesse will end and normality resume once the emergency is over.
    Counterpoint - HS2

    If we can't build the capacity our railway needs to meet demand we definitely don't have the money to invest in wind turbines which the private sector are willing to invest in... Yes the public may be paying a slightly higher price for energy but it's small relative to other screwups..
    That was cancelled because:
    1. Stupidly high costs coming from a gold-plated scheme, political demands for unnecessary tunnels and the general expensiveness of land.
    2. Political choices over how to use the money it would have cost.

    Neither of these were because the market wouldn't fund it; it was down to political priorities and, in particular, appeasing Nimbys.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    What actual completed investments has the state made over the past 30 years though ?

    Crossrail & I can't think of much else. Plenty on repairs and maintenance, but actual new completed big projects... ??
    Queensferry Crossing & Borders Railway, both opened by QEII so must be REALLY important.
    Bathgate electrification through to the Wild West.

    Edit: I won't suggest the electrification of the London-Bristol main line as that was so badly screwed up.
    Sone big chunks of the A9 have been dualled, tbf. Fochabers bypass. A few new rail stations and realignments in the north (all incredibly ugly). Leven link.

    I'd have guessed offshore wind is probably the most significant investment though, enabled by the state. Will reach 20gw in the few years - 30 by 2030.
    A lot of these investments have indirect benefits (economic growth and tax revenue) but nothing direct, because government is not investing in income generating assets. That’s where roads are a problem - unless they are toll roads. The cost hits the treasury P&L and there’s no offsetting income.

    That’s where railways, or road pricing, or direct investment in power generation could help. Then government has an income stream so the treasury numbers and there’s case for borrowing can better add up.
    There is offsetting income, it just does not have a row in the treasury spreadsheet as it is very indirect.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    One thing I do not understand is why our governments (which can borrow at lower rates than commercial companies) have not insisted on taking large stakes in offshore wind developments. They clearly provide a predictable profit stream, a fair proportion of which goes overseas.

    If we are indeed overpaying for renewable electricity, couldn't more of the money at least go back into the exchequer ?

    What's the flaw in this reasoning ?
    AIU it appears to go back to failed investments in industry from the sixties and seventies such that investment has become a bad thing for a couple of generations of politicians.
    But government was pretty well guaranteeing a return, by setting a guaranteed price for the electricity.
    UK gov makes consistently terrible investment decisions and this doesn't change much by party. I think the main reasons are previous examples of failure and the positive pay offs happen after the politicians are judged.

    It is much harder to be criticised for something you never did, than something you championed which ended up over budget or somehow went wrong.
    Had we applied that approach to the water industry, the consumer would probably still have been ripped off, but at least half of the revenue would have stayed in the UK, rather than disappearing overseas.
    Macquarie made a lot of their money effectively borrowing from themselves to gear up the industry. So they took out dividends in the equity and got paid interest on what was effectively government guaranteed borrowing (at rates more expensive than government could itself have borrowed).

    Privatised monopolies don't work in the public interest.
    That's a question of regulation. Ofwat has been captured by the water companies.

    If you link caps on dividends and executive bonuses and salaries to pollution levels then you'd almost certainly see the latter coming down.

    The state, to repeat a point made multiple times already, tends to be dreadful at investment. For boring stuff like water networks, that's less because it makes bad investment choices of X over Y and more because political pressure is to keep bills down, and the easiest way to do that is to cut the investment budget which has little immediate adverse effect. It's no coincidence that both water quality and leak rates under the nationalised water boards were dreadful.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    edited October 1
    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    What actual completed investments has the state made over the past 30 years though ?

    Crossrail & I can't think of much else. Plenty on repairs and maintenance, but actual new completed big projects... ??
    Eurostar first public service November 1994 so just squeaks in. Will be plenty of schools, hospitals, telecoms, water and roads, just not enough.
    Chunnel was completed 6 May 1994 so I wasn't counting that in the 30 year band. Schools, hospitals, Telecoms, water & roads are repairs maintenance & upgrades to keep pace with our rising population (Or not :p ) (And heavier cars) to my mind.
    Our power generation capacity has decreased from the previous 30 years though and that's a first order approximation to industrial capacity. Offshore wind replacing coal is a modal shift in power generation so that might count.
    On a slight tangent I have no idea how we get to net zero for power generation by 2030 is it. I mean I can see how we get 70 +, 80 or even 90% there but there's just not the storage for stillish & gloomy winter conditions to get to 100% to my mind.
    Presumably you could (theoretically at least) get to Net Zero by generating 105% and exporting the excess, then generating 5% from Gas when really needed...
    That particular equation is going the wrong way. In the past year we've generated 88.1% of our leccy - down from 94% since 2012. One benefit of more wind capacity should be that we export more than we import (With the exception of Denmark) as Norway is hydro, France, Netherlands and Belgium mainly nuclear & fossil still..
    Currently we're importing from everywhere except Ireland with whom we share a single electricity market anyway.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Andy_JS said:
    Much of it comes down to charging levels.

    To give an example, the people who pipe bombed ULEZ camera could be charged with causing an explosion (terrorism). The facts would suggest A3 category of offence under the charging guidelines. Which starts at 16 years in prison. Range is 12-20 years.

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/offences/crown-court/item/explosive-substances-terrorism-only/

    But they won’t get charged with that,
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,932
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

    https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

    Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

    Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election
    Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

    Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

    They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

    Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.
    Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

    As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

    Graduates voted 42% Labour, 18% Conservative, 15% Liberal Democrat, 9% Green and 8% Reform in July. As might be expected, the strongest groups for Labour, the LDs and Greens, the weakest for Conservative and Reform.

    Whether that's an example of education or political indoctrination at Universities is a matter for debate of course and I'm sure everyone has a view (or perhaps not).
    Cameron won graduates but since they have voted Labour mostly, however Boris won without graduates as did May
    According to Yougov Labour was also at >40% with high earners, 50-100k bracket.
    Pre tax rises, though Boris did best with average earners not high earners and it is average earners who decide elections.

    Only 10% of voters earn more than £50k and the LDs percentage wise get the highest percentage of their voters from high earners now not Labour or the Tories
    So according to Yougov, the largest cohort is Labour voting, that LDs get a smaller cohort overall but that it makes up a larger % of their total vote ... shrugs
    I'm a bit dubious about how accurate the Yougov sub setting is tbh, they're filtering very finely from a relatively small sample. Others might have more knowledgeable insight.
    Look at the poshest home counties seats now Esher and Walton, Epsom and Ewell, St Albans, Winchester, Henley, Maidenhead, Tunbridge Wells, Chesham and Amersham etc all now have LD MPs. As do some of the wealthiest parts of London like Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Twickenham
    Gails = LD
    Even Epping now has LD councillors mostly and a Gail's
    Gail's was a complete mystery to me other than seeing it mentioned on here and then I saw my first one on my one and only visit to Epping a month ago and mentioned the conversations we have here to my wife. She was all knowing. Apparently we have one in Guildford (news to me) and her nephew (who has to have everything that is fashionable) is beside himself that one is opening in Henley. My wife thinks they are pretty average.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    That's very funny.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,883
    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    What actual completed investments has the state made over the past 30 years though ?

    Crossrail & I can't think of much else. Plenty on repairs and maintenance, but actual new completed big projects... ??
    Eurostar first public service November 1994 so just squeaks in. Will be plenty of schools, hospitals, telecoms, water and roads, just not enough.
    Chunnel was completed 6 May 1994 so I wasn't counting that in the 30 year band. Schools, hospitals, Telecoms, water & roads are repairs maintenance & upgrades to keep pace with our rising population (Or not :p ) (And heavier cars) to my mind.
    Our power generation capacity has decreased from the previous 30 years though and that's a first order approximation to industrial capacity. Offshore wind replacing coal is a modal shift in power generation so that might count.
    On a slight tangent I have no idea how we get to net zero for power generation by 2030 is it. I mean I can see how we get 70 +, 80 or even 90% there but there's just not the storage for stillish & gloomy winter conditions to get to 100% to my mind.
    Presumably you could (theoretically at least) get to Net Zero by generating 105% and exporting the excess, then generating 5% from Gas when really needed...
    There are opportunities like that everywhere, such as houses which are carbon positive (I'm not quite there yet with my extended 1930s bungalow, but I'm not far off), and materials that capture more carbon than they take to process.

    But lots of definitional questions.

    I'm interested watching my MP demanding that Radcliffe-on-Soar should not be closed.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting video on what's gone wrong for the Conservatives electorally. As with much else it's all the fault of Brexit. That's when they lost the graduates, who are the key demographic in Britain now. Talk in the video about how the Tories can work their way back with an offer to graduates but it feels hypothetical.

    https://www.ft.com/video/2ebac039-3c96-4bb4-8e9b-4b05fb4f8844

    Even Corbyn won graduates, they aren't the key swing voters now, the key swing voters now are white lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters with a mortgage who voted for Boris in 2019 but for Starmer or Farage this time. Mostly living in the Midlands and North and Essex and Kent.

    Graduate swing voters are Remainers primarily in the South who voted for Cameron but LD in July however they are not enough on their own to win a general election
    Graduates aren't the key swing voters; they are the most important voting demographic period. The video makes the point that it gets increasingly hard for the Conservatives to win without swinging graduates.

    Graduates are large in number and efficiently distributed. This is the killer combo under FPTP.

    They are distributed across cities, suburbs, the countryside and increasingly into post industrial northern towns, the so called Red Wall.

    Since Brexit they have mostly voted Labour and rarely Conservative. They vote more than non graduates.
    Except they aren't, if they were Corbyn would now be PM as most graduates voted for him.

    As I said the key swing voters are lower middle class and skilled working class middle aged voters who voted for Boris then Starmer or Farage NOT graduates.

    Graduates voted 42% Labour, 18% Conservative, 15% Liberal Democrat, 9% Green and 8% Reform in July. As might be expected, the strongest groups for Labour, the LDs and Greens, the weakest for Conservative and Reform.

    Whether that's an example of education or political indoctrination at Universities is a matter for debate of course and I'm sure everyone has a view (or perhaps not).
    Cameron won graduates but since they have voted Labour mostly, however Boris won without graduates as did May
    According to Yougov Labour was also at >40% with high earners, 50-100k bracket.
    Pre tax rises, though Boris did best with average earners not high earners and it is average earners who decide elections.

    Only 10% of voters earn more than £50k and the LDs percentage wise get the highest percentage of their voters from high earners now not Labour or the Tories
    So according to Yougov, the largest cohort is Labour voting, that LDs get a smaller cohort overall but that it makes up a larger % of their total vote ... shrugs
    I'm a bit dubious about how accurate the Yougov sub setting is tbh, they're filtering very finely from a relatively small sample. Others might have more knowledgeable insight.
    Look at the poshest home counties seats now Esher and Walton, Epsom and Ewell, St Albans, Winchester, Henley, Maidenhead, Tunbridge Wells, Chesham and Amersham etc all now have LD MPs. As do some of the wealthiest parts of London like Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Twickenham
    Gails = LD
    Even Epping now has LD councillors mostly and a Gail's
    Gail's was a complete mystery to me other than seeing it mentioned on here and then I saw my first one on my one and only visit to Epping a month ago and mentioned the conversations we have here to my wife. She was all knowing. Apparently we have one in Guildford (news to me) and her nephew (who has to have everything that is fashionable) is beside himself that one is opening in Henley. My wife thinks they are pretty average.
    If everything was a quarter the price it would be great. At the prices, meh.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Given SKS

    - has taken £100,000 worth of freebies

    - more than every Labour leader put together since 1997

    - despite being in the top 1% of earners

    - refuses to stop taking them despite the damage it’s inflicted on Labour

    What’s the explanation other than that he’s greedy
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,585

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    One thing I do not understand is why our governments (which can borrow at lower rates than commercial companies) have not insisted on taking large stakes in offshore wind developments. They clearly provide a predictable profit stream, a fair proportion of which goes overseas.

    If we are indeed overpaying for renewable electricity, couldn't more of the money at least go back into the exchequer ?

    What's the flaw in this reasoning ?
    AIU it appears to go back to failed investments in industry from the sixties and seventies such that investment has become a bad thing for a couple of generations of politicians.
    But government was pretty well guaranteeing a return, by setting a guaranteed price for the electricity.
    UK gov makes consistently terrible investment decisions and this doesn't change much by party. I think the main reasons are previous examples of failure and the positive pay offs happen after the politicians are judged.

    It is much harder to be criticised for something you never did, than something you championed which ended up over budget or somehow went wrong.
    Had we applied that approach to the water industry, the consumer would probably still have been ripped off, but at least half of the revenue would have stayed in the UK, rather than disappearing overseas.
    Macquarie made a lot of their money effectively borrowing from themselves to gear up the industry. So they took out dividends in the equity and got paid interest on what was effectively government guaranteed borrowing (at rates more expensive than government could itself have borrowed).

    Privatised monopolies don't work in the public interest.
    That's a question of regulation. Ofwat has been captured by the water companies.

    If you link caps on dividends and executive bonuses and salaries to pollution levels then you'd almost certainly see the latter coming down.

    The state, to repeat a point made multiple times already, tends to be dreadful at investment. For boring stuff like water networks, that's less because it makes bad investment choices of X over Y and more because political pressure is to keep bills down, and the easiest way to do that is to cut the investment budget which has little immediate adverse effect. It's no coincidence that both water quality and leak rates under the nationalised water boards were dreadful.
    My first post-graduation job was for a Statutory Water Company. I like the model they had, but they got stiffed by the creation of the big water companies because Thatcher's government didn't believe in "level playing fields".

    The basic financial model was this -
    they had shareholders like a private company, but there were two major constraints
    1) Dividends were capped, but you could get a steady safe income from owning their shares, and
    2) increasing the company's borrowing limit required government approval (by a statutory instrument I think)

    So increasing debt purely to pay yourself a big dividend would have been a non-starter, though borrowing to e.g. build a new reservoir would have been fine.

    SWCs historically owed their existence to under-investment in water infrastructure by the old Urban District, Rural District and Borough councils.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    edited October 1

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    We need a people's vote to give voters the final say. Stop Starmer!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,979
    Phil said:

    Taz said:

    Phil said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

    It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

    In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

    It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

    There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

    Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.
    I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.
    Yes this is right isn’t it. But what then.
    Personally I think the best candidate in the Labour Party is Andy Burnham, but he's not in Parliament, and if there were a byelection to get him in, Reform would fancy their chances of an upset. So it looks like Reeves or Cooper, neither of whom have covered themselves in glory since Labour have come to power.
    What’s the mechanism for that, when there’s a huge new intake of MPs that are potentially quite fringey in their political views and who might not want a cabinet stitch up in favour of those two? Perhaps it’s going to be done US style. A cabinet nominee who assumes PM, a vote of confidence in the house and a total bypassing of the usual labour leadership rules?
    I would love to have what you are having.

    It simply isn't possible unless

    1) SKS resigns
    2) only one candidate puts their name forward.

    And so far we have a few stories about receiving gifts and a very dodgy super injection story that even I know is a pile of kack..
    It's copium on the right.

    It's not easy to dump a PM mid-term and rightly so. Major survived Black Wednesday, Blair survived Iraq.

    For the Conservatives to have lost two PMs in quick succession was unprecedented. Until the party has a good story for how they screwed up so much twice in a row, they aren't a serious party of government. And the only one that really works is "I wasn't around then".

    So any current Conservative who wants their exile to be less than a decade has to normalise the idea that both sides are equally bad at choosing suitable PMs.

    Trouble is, that even if Starmer does turn out to be a Johnsonesque sleazeball (I rather doubt it), he needs to be followed by a nutter who only lasts seven weeks.

    Unlikely.
    Very unlikely - because Labour MPs won't be stupid enough to let just their membership pick the next PM - so you would see a stitch up like 2007, or at most, 2 centrist candidates getting nominated.

    What you won't see is a left wing candidate getting enough nominations to stand after Corbyn...

    I'm still trying to grasp how Tory MPs thought Truss was a suitable candidate..
    Relatedly: heretofore unseen levels of Cope on display by the Truss on the deep state that evicted her from her Prime Ministerial post: https://x.com/PoliticoForYou/status/1840723236499137012
    Liz Truss claims “Underground transgender mafia” were plotting against her and brought her leadership to an end.

    “They’re the ones really running this country.”

    Amazing.
    As pointed out upthread thats a "parody" account
    Dammit. I’m out of the edit window too.

    A reminder to check twice before posting...
    TBH They don't need to parody her. She is beyond parody.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082

    Given SKS

    - has taken £100,000 worth of freebies

    - more than every Labour leader put together since 1997

    - despite being in the top 1% of earners

    - refuses to stop taking them despite the damage it’s inflicted on Labour

    What’s the explanation other than that he’s greedy

    He believes the Lawyer’s Dictum

    1) I wish to do something
    2) It is legal
    3) Therefore it is my moral duty to do it. Any opposition to this is grotesquely immoral, since it is legal. To oppose it is to defy the law.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    Sean_F said:

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    That's very funny.
    Ed Davey could back back in the mucky business of propping up a Gov't before he knows it :D
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    edited October 1

    Given SKS

    - has taken £100,000 worth of freebies

    - more than every Labour leader put together since 1997

    - despite being in the top 1% of earners

    - refuses to stop taking them despite the damage it’s inflicted on Labour

    What’s the explanation other than that he’s greedy

    The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good.

    Greed is right.

    Greed works.

    Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.

    Greed, in all of its forms, greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge,has marked the upward surge of mankind.

    And greed, you mark my words, has not only saved the failing Labour party, but will save that other malfunctioning corporation called UK plc.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    "Who Is Favored To Win Pennsylvania's 19 Electoral Votes?

    Harris wins 55 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
    Trump wins 45 times out of 100."

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,585

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    Would love to see a comparison with the coalition government of 2010-2015.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    One thing I do not understand is why our governments (which can borrow at lower rates than commercial companies) have not insisted on taking large stakes in offshore wind developments. They clearly provide a predictable profit stream, a fair proportion of which goes overseas.

    If we are indeed overpaying for renewable electricity, couldn't more of the money at least go back into the exchequer ?

    What's the flaw in this reasoning ?
    The flaw in the reasoning is that we don't have the capacity to borrow the money and that we structured the deals so that the builders of the wind farms bid on the price at which they electricity was sold - we couldn't have done that if the government was (part) building the farms.
    We do though. The market gets spooked when governments borrow for current spending without any consideration for servicing or paying it back; just unjustified assertions as the tax cuts paying for themselves. Genuine investment will be viewed more favourably. Likewise, large but one-off spending will be tolerated by lenders as long as there's a recognition that the largesse will end and normality resume once the emergency is over.
    The difficulty here for the jaded observer is that WRT excess borrowing to fund current state expenditure lifestyle the 'emergency' has now lasted without a break since 2008, we plan to reduce debt at a % of GDP by continuing to borrow lots more, and the treasury seems to be planning an even more bogus measure of fiscal probity than the current bogus one so that we can borrow more still, and there is no plan for paying a farthing of it back.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    We need a people's vote to give voters the final say. Stop Starmer!
    Democracy demands that what was voted for (five years of untrammelled Labour rule under the iron grip of Sir Keir Starmer) be implemented first.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945

    Given SKS

    - has taken £100,000 worth of freebies

    - more than every Labour leader put together since 1997

    - despite being in the top 1% of earners

    - refuses to stop taking them despite the damage it’s inflicted on Labour

    What’s the explanation other than that he’s greedy

    The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good.

    Greed is right.

    Greed works.

    Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.

    Greed, in all of its forms, greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge,has marked the upward surge of mankind.

    And greed, you mark my words, has not only saved the failing Labour party, but will save that other malfunctioning corporation called UK plc.
    Hey, it's Sunil's job to post this, lol.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    One thing I do not understand is why our governments (which can borrow at lower rates than commercial companies) have not insisted on taking large stakes in offshore wind developments. They clearly provide a predictable profit stream, a fair proportion of which goes overseas.

    If we are indeed overpaying for renewable electricity, couldn't more of the money at least go back into the exchequer ?

    What's the flaw in this reasoning ?
    AIU it appears to go back to failed investments in industry from the sixties and seventies such that investment has become a bad thing for a couple of generations of politicians.
    But government was pretty well guaranteeing a return, by setting a guaranteed price for the electricity.
    UK gov makes consistently terrible investment decisions and this doesn't change much by party. I think the main reasons are previous examples of failure and the positive pay offs happen after the politicians are judged.

    It is much harder to be criticised for something you never did, than something you championed which ended up over budget or somehow went wrong.
    When I was younger and more ignorant, I actually tried selling the DARPA idea to various MPs.

    I eventually noticed that, while they claimed to like the idea, they actually wanted to “improve” it by

    1) picking the winners
    2) throw big money into 1)

    As in, the complete reverse of the DARPA idea. Which is small amounts of seed money to a range of ideas in a space, see which ones actually work…
    Slightly more to it than that - one program director with almost dictatorial powers, but a limited term of office. And no political decision making, of course.
    You can't not have decision-making though. Ultimately, the politicians have to be accountable, which means they have to have some degree of power. In an ideal world, they just pick highly capable people who then run things independently but civil servants and bureaucrats can also suffer from group-think and ignore ideas out of their reference zone. Perhaps a new organisation might not suffer from those problems, if staffed with people from outside that culture but I wouldn't bet on it. To take a practical example, Churchill's direct interventions could be a time-wasting pain in the backside for the military and civil chiefs at times (quite a lot of times) but on the other hand they were also critical in, for example, giving the work at Bletchley Park the priority it needed and deserved.

    What's needed is a proactive culture without fear of failure. Neither of these tend to sit very comfortably in the public sector (or, indeed, within the private sector and in particular large, established organisations).
    For the DARPA model the politicians set policy goals, and award a tranche of funding - that's it.
    The reason it works is that they appoint expert program directors on very limited (c. 2 years) terms. During that time they have (in their small sphere) unchecked power to award (relatively small( grants for short term</>, high risk projects.

    They get to try ideas without fear of failure (the expectation is that many will fail), and if it works, it's then someone else's to take further.

    No empire building.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,883
    edited October 1

    Selebian said:

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

    Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement :smile: I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).
    Come to BlueSky instead. That's increasingly where academic discussion is moving. Although the best place for publicising research outputs I find is probably LinkedIn.
    I started making a list of present/former pb or pb-adjacent people I recognized with a view to making a starter pack or something. Ping me on there if you want to be added to it.
    https://bsky.app/profile/goat.navy/lists/3l2347tg6fd2r
    So far I've stuck with Twitter because it would be quite hard work to rebuild such an interesting community - mine has developed since 2008 and has a lot of interesting people in it.

    Pinged you. I'm at https://bsky.app/profile/mattwardman.bsky.social .
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,694
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    That's very funny.
    Ed Davey could back back in the mucky business of propping up a Gov't before he knows it :D
    Once bitten, though. Of course David Steel propped up Callaghan and it caused little damage.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    Andy_JS said:

    Given SKS

    - has taken £100,000 worth of freebies

    - more than every Labour leader put together since 1997

    - despite being in the top 1% of earners

    - refuses to stop taking them despite the damage it’s inflicted on Labour

    What’s the explanation other than that he’s greedy

    The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good.

    Greed is right.

    Greed works.

    Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.

    Greed, in all of its forms, greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge,has marked the upward surge of mankind.

    And greed, you mark my words, has not only saved the failing Labour party, but will save that other malfunctioning corporation called UK plc.
    Hey, it's Sunil's job to post this, lol.
    If he is too slow, I'm just following my inner greed and taking it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    edited October 1
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    What actual completed investments has the state made over the past 30 years though ?

    Crossrail & I can't think of much else. Plenty on repairs and maintenance, but actual new completed big projects... ??
    Queensferry Crossing & Borders Railway, both opened by QEII so must be REALLY important.
    Bathgate electrification through to the Wild West.

    Edit: I won't suggest the electrification of the London-Bristol main line as that was so badly screwed up.
    Sone big chunks of the A9 have been dualled, tbf. Fochabers bypass. A few new rail stations and realignments in the north (all incredibly ugly). Leven link.

    I'd have guessed offshore wind is probably the most significant investment though, enabled by the state. Will reach 20gw in the few years - 30 by 2030.
    And that reminds me that some of the delays to the A9 etc were down to the Tories, Slab etc. via the chaos caused by diversion of moneys to the Edinburgh trams - which themselves count as a major investment project, of course. I'd add the Greens to that list but delays to the A9 would be a feature not a bug for them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    Well it took 88 days for the government to lose their lead.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    Andy_JS said:

    "Who Is Favored To Win Pennsylvania's 19 Electoral Votes?

    Harris wins 55 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
    Trump wins 45 times out of 100."

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

    And the overall assessment is Harris 57% vs Trump 43%. So she's value at 1.98 if you set store by their model.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. Pioneers, aye. Even if the timing couldn't be altered, they've used that gap to cut planned investment and create an atmosphere of doom and gloom that just makes a bad situation worse, which, as you say, then becomes a legitimate economic line with which to attack Labour.

    It's dumb both politically and economically.

    I think Nigel Lawson had it spot on when he said in his memoirs that saying how bad the situation is after you've just won an election is damaging because it undermines confidence and it's also pointless because you don't have to face the voters for some years.

    Of course it's especially stupid when you've made up transparent lies like saying this is the worst situation for an incoming government since the war, when 2010 was several degrees worse, or that there is a huge hole in the public finances, while there is enough money to waste on pay rises for unreformed public sector unions and pointless and unpopular foreign aid or that things are way worse than you thought, when the figures are public.

    And finally it's most staggeringly stupid when you've clearly got no convincing plan to fix anything except the tiniest of tinkering.
    2010 wasnt worse for the state of public services, accumulative impact of lack of investment or economic asperations of young people. It is not all about budget finances.
    It is if you're Labour, whose only answer for any problem is to waste (or "invest" as Brown called it) other people's money.
    Most people who get rich make their money partly through earnings but a very substantial share comes from investments too. It is the same with countries.
    One thing I do not understand is why our governments (which can borrow at lower rates than commercial companies) have not insisted on taking large stakes in offshore wind developments. They clearly provide a predictable profit stream, a fair proportion of which goes overseas.

    If we are indeed overpaying for renewable electricity, couldn't more of the money at least go back into the exchequer ?

    What's the flaw in this reasoning ?
    AIU it appears to go back to failed investments in industry from the sixties and seventies such that investment has become a bad thing for a couple of generations of politicians.
    But government was pretty well guaranteeing a return, by setting a guaranteed price for the electricity.
    UK gov makes consistently terrible investment decisions and this doesn't change much by party. I think the main reasons are previous examples of failure and the positive pay offs happen after the politicians are judged.

    It is much harder to be criticised for something you never did, than something you championed which ended up over budget or somehow went wrong.
    Had we applied that approach to the water industry, the consumer would probably still have been ripped off, but at least half of the revenue would have stayed in the UK, rather than disappearing overseas.
    Macquarie made a lot of their money effectively borrowing from themselves to gear up the industry. So they took out dividends in the equity and got paid interest on what was effectively government guaranteed borrowing (at rates more expensive than government could itself have borrowed).

    Privatised monopolies don't work in the public interest.
    That's a question of regulation. Ofwat has been captured by the water companies.

    If you link caps on dividends and executive bonuses and salaries to pollution levels then you'd almost certainly see the latter coming down.

    The state, to repeat a point made multiple times already, tends to be dreadful at investment. For boring stuff like water networks, that's less because it makes bad investment choices of X over Y and more because political pressure is to keep bills down, and the easiest way to do that is to cut the investment budget which has little immediate adverse effect. It's no coincidence that both water quality and leak rates under the nationalised water boards were dreadful.
    The state could have been - in my suggestion - a sleeping partner, except in extremis.
    I've nothing against private finance, or private management for utilities; I just don't like the country getting ripped off.

    Also "a question of regulation" amounts to the same thing as state management. By retaining actual ownership rights, the state at least benefits, if the consumer gets ripped off.
    As it is, we had the worst of both worlds.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    Saw it last night, but still

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,335

    Given SKS

    - has taken £100,000 worth of freebies

    - more than every Labour leader put together since 1997

    - despite being in the top 1% of earners

    - refuses to stop taking them despite the damage it’s inflicted on Labour

    What’s the explanation other than that he’s greedy

    This is silly. SKS has not taken £100k worth of freebies because no-one would pay £100k at open market prices for the things he was granted.

    The problem is a single person apparently acting as sugar daddy for half the cabinet, not the £ amounts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,946
    Mr. Owls, that's very unfair. You can't possibly expect Sir Keir to fund his own wardrobe. What do you think he is: some sort of pleb?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    edited October 1
    Leon said:

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    Saw it last night, but still

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
    Starmer's glorious 88 days as leader of a government with an unassailed opinion poll lead. Must be some sort of record.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    Taz said:

    Phil said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

    It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

    In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

    It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

    There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

    Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.
    I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.
    Yes this is right isn’t it. But what then.
    Personally I think the best candidate in the Labour Party is Andy Burnham, but he's not in Parliament, and if there were a byelection to get him in, Reform would fancy their chances of an upset. So it looks like Reeves or Cooper, neither of whom have covered themselves in glory since Labour have come to power.
    What’s the mechanism for that, when there’s a huge new intake of MPs that are potentially quite fringey in their political views and who might not want a cabinet stitch up in favour of those two? Perhaps it’s going to be done US style. A cabinet nominee who assumes PM, a vote of confidence in the house and a total bypassing of the usual labour leadership rules?
    I would love to have what you are having.

    It simply isn't possible unless

    1) SKS resigns
    2) only one candidate puts their name forward.

    And so far we have a few stories about receiving gifts and a very dodgy super injection story that even I know is a pile of kack..
    It's copium on the right.

    It's not easy to dump a PM mid-term and rightly so. Major survived Black Wednesday, Blair survived Iraq.

    For the Conservatives to have lost two PMs in quick succession was unprecedented. Until the party has a good story for how they screwed up so much twice in a row, they aren't a serious party of government. And the only one that really works is "I wasn't around then".

    So any current Conservative who wants their exile to be less than a decade has to normalise the idea that both sides are equally bad at choosing suitable PMs.

    Trouble is, that even if Starmer does turn out to be a Johnsonesque sleazeball (I rather doubt it), he needs to be followed by a nutter who only lasts seven weeks.

    Unlikely.
    Very unlikely - because Labour MPs won't be stupid enough to let just their membership pick the next PM - so you would see a stitch up like 2007, or at most, 2 centrist candidates getting nominated.

    What you won't see is a left wing candidate getting enough nominations to stand after Corbyn...

    I'm still trying to grasp how Tory MPs thought Truss was a suitable candidate..
    Relatedly: heretofore unseen levels of Cope on display by the Truss on the deep state that evicted her from her Prime Ministerial post: https://x.com/PoliticoForYou/status/1840723236499137012
    Liz Truss claims “Underground transgender mafia” were plotting against her and brought her leadership to an end.

    “They’re the ones really running this country.”
    Amazing.
    As pointed out upthread thats a "parody" account

    Really quite embarrassing the credulous idiots you get round here.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

    Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement :smile: I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).
    Come to BlueSky instead. That's increasingly where academic discussion is moving. Although the best place for publicising research outputs I find is probably LinkedIn.
    I started making a list of present/former pb or pb-adjacent people I recognized with a view to making a starter pack or something. Ping me on there if you want to be added to it.
    https://bsky.app/profile/goat.navy/lists/3l2347tg6fd2r
    So far I've stuck with Twitter because it would be quite hard work to rebuild such an interesting community - mine has developed since 2008 and has a lot of interesting people in it.

    Pinged you. I'm at https://bsky.app/profile/mattwardman.bsky.social .
    Saying - however subtly - that you are on Bluesky is going to become the marker of the worst type of vain lefty wanker. The social media equivalent of "oh, I only go to Gails, for my bread, lovely sourdough", "or no, actually, I'm a vegan, I can't even LOOK at meat"

    Bluesky is full of lefty twats congratulating each other for being on Bluesky
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Phil said:

    Given SKS

    - has taken £100,000 worth of freebies

    - more than every Labour leader put together since 1997

    - despite being in the top 1% of earners

    - refuses to stop taking them despite the damage it’s inflicted on Labour

    What’s the explanation other than that he’s greedy

    This is silly. SKS has not taken £100k worth of freebies because no-one would pay £100k at open market prices for the things he was granted.

    The problem is a single person apparently acting as sugar daddy for half the cabinet, not the £ amounts.
    Which things have a lower value? Genuine question - my understanding is that the declared value should be the value to purchase.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    edited October 1

    MattW said:

    Brains Trust Question.

    My photo quota today is a Britain First activist called Andrew Edge, suited and booted for a demo in Belfast that apparently drew 23 people (that number could have been ironic, meaning "flop").

    Who is the jowly chap in the photo on the wall. I think I recognise it - I was wondering if it was a Monday Club character or someone like John Tyndall. Any ideas?

    Qtwtain in any case.
    Next trousers bunched up over yer ankles!!
    It's John Travolta in Pulp Fiction.

    By the way, what is it with that George Osborne/Theresa May power pose that all the silly twats do?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    Phil said:

    Given SKS

    - has taken £100,000 worth of freebies

    - more than every Labour leader put together since 1997

    - despite being in the top 1% of earners

    - refuses to stop taking them despite the damage it’s inflicted on Labour

    What’s the explanation other than that he’s greedy

    This is silly. SKS has not taken £100k worth of freebies because no-one would pay £100k at open market prices for the things he was granted.

    The problem is a single person apparently acting as sugar daddy for half the cabinet, not the £ amounts.
    Lack of political nous and awareness an issue as well. But those who dont seem worked up by Frank Hester pumping in £15m to the Tories seem awfully concerned about Starmer's son using a friends flat or Starmer watching Arsenal.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143

    Phil said:

    Given SKS

    - has taken £100,000 worth of freebies

    - more than every Labour leader put together since 1997

    - despite being in the top 1% of earners

    - refuses to stop taking them despite the damage it’s inflicted on Labour

    What’s the explanation other than that he’s greedy

    This is silly. SKS has not taken £100k worth of freebies because no-one would pay £100k at open market prices for the things he was granted.

    The problem is a single person apparently acting as sugar daddy for half the cabinet, not the £ amounts.
    Which things have a lower value? Genuine question - my understanding is that the declared value should be the value to purchase.
    £20k for somewhere to study.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

    Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement :smile: I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).
    Come to BlueSky instead. That's increasingly where academic discussion is moving. Although the best place for publicising research outputs I find is probably LinkedIn.
    I started making a list of present/former pb or pb-adjacent people I recognized with a view to making a starter pack or something. Ping me on there if you want to be added to it.
    https://bsky.app/profile/goat.navy/lists/3l2347tg6fd2r
    So far I've stuck with Twitter because it would be quite hard work to rebuild such an interesting community - mine has developed since 2008 and has a lot of interesting people in it.

    Pinged you. I'm at https://bsky.app/profile/mattwardman.bsky.social .
    https://chromewebstore.google.com/detail/sky-follower-bridge/behhbpbpmailcnfbjagknjngnfdojpko is a chrome / edge app that will try to find the bluesky accounts of the people you follow on twitter.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

    Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement :smile: I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).
    Come to BlueSky instead. That's increasingly where academic discussion is moving. Although the best place for publicising research outputs I find is probably LinkedIn.
    I started making a list of present/former pb or pb-adjacent people I recognized with a view to making a starter pack or something. Ping me on there if you want to be added to it.
    https://bsky.app/profile/goat.navy/lists/3l2347tg6fd2r
    So far I've stuck with Twitter because it would be quite hard work to rebuild such an interesting community - mine has developed since 2008 and has a lot of interesting people in it.

    Pinged you. I'm at https://bsky.app/profile/mattwardman.bsky.social .
    You can create your own Twitter? I didn't know that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    Andy_JS said:

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    Well it took 88 days for the government to lose their lead.
    I doubt that - we just haven't seen the VI polling.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,610
    Good afternoon

    Just to cheer everyone

    Bought our bi-lingual Welsh RNLI Christmas cards and first of the family's Christmas presents this morning

    Far better than watching the conservative conference, but I would just quietly suggest that those who are writing off the party may be a wee bit premature no matter who the next leader is as while they seem a poor choice they are not talking to anyone at present other than to objectively capture some Reform voters

    The electorate are very volatile across the western world and the rise of the right is a warning shot not to be ignored

    Indeed who on earth could have predicted the fall in Starmer's ratings and his government's popularity, so much so that last nights poll actually put Sunak's ahead
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    kjh said:

    Gail's was a complete mystery to me other than seeing it mentioned on here and then I saw my first one on my one and only visit to Epping a month ago and mentioned the conversations we have here to my wife. She was all knowing. Apparently we have one in Guildford (news to me) and her nephew (who has to have everything that is fashionable) is beside himself that one is opening in Henley. My wife thinks they are pretty average.

    They have made it as far North as Stratford-Upon-Avon
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082

    Phil said:

    Given SKS

    - has taken £100,000 worth of freebies

    - more than every Labour leader put together since 1997

    - despite being in the top 1% of earners

    - refuses to stop taking them despite the damage it’s inflicted on Labour

    What’s the explanation other than that he’s greedy

    This is silly. SKS has not taken £100k worth of freebies because no-one would pay £100k at open market prices for the things he was granted.

    The problem is a single person apparently acting as sugar daddy for half the cabinet, not the £ amounts.
    Which things have a lower value? Genuine question - my understanding is that the declared value should be the value to purchase.
    £20k for somewhere to study.
    That was the price of a short term rental of a very large flat in a fashionable part of town.

    The actual use it was put to was irrelevant.

    If someone gives me a magnum of Perrier Jouet Belle Epoque and I use it to clean my shoes, I would still have to declare the full purchase price.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Andy_JS said:

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    Well it took 88 days for the government to lose their lead.
    Its not a VI its a question do you prefer a previous Government to the current one.

    So AFAIK Lab still lead on VI
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,979
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

    Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement :smile: I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).
    Come to BlueSky instead. That's increasingly where academic discussion is moving. Although the best place for publicising research outputs I find is probably LinkedIn.
    I started making a list of present/former pb or pb-adjacent people I recognized with a view to making a starter pack or something. Ping me on there if you want to be added to it.
    https://bsky.app/profile/goat.navy/lists/3l2347tg6fd2r
    So far I've stuck with Twitter because it would be quite hard work to rebuild such an interesting community - mine has developed since 2008 and has a lot of interesting people in it.

    Pinged you. I'm at https://bsky.app/profile/mattwardman.bsky.social .
    Saying - however subtly - that you are on Bluesky is going to become the marker of the worst type of vain lefty wanker. The social media equivalent of "oh, I only go to Gails, for my bread, lovely sourdough", "or no, actually, I'm a vegan, I can't even LOOK at meat"

    Bluesky is full of lefty twats congratulating each other for being on Bluesky
    I thought Gails Bakery was problematic due to Israel among other things.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,979
    edited October 1

    Taz said:

    Phil said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    It’s an interesting thought experiment what happens if the Left depose Mr Ming Vase. As many on Twitter without fear of libel law seem to be predicting.

    It would be pretty easy for any competent Conservative in the next 20 years to make the argument that Labour can never be trusted in office, even if their leader appears like a relatively soft left metro type.

    In turn perhaps this should be a consideration in the next PM market. There’s not a precedent for a contested labour leadership process while in office. Are the left able to force a members process, knowing their candidate (Raynor?) wins? Or is there a cabinet stitch up and a coalescing around perhaps Streeting?

    It's virtually impossible to depose a sitting Labour leader. 20% of the PLP have to nominate a rival, and no sign of that happening, not least because the usual subjects are not taking the Labour whip at present.

    There are lots of folk on Twitter who believe too much on Twitter.

    Starmer is rubbish at retail politics, but very good at consolidating power.
    I agree - that's why he'll resign. He'll have to. There's really no way back I don't think.
    Yes this is right isn’t it. But what then.
    Personally I think the best candidate in the Labour Party is Andy Burnham, but he's not in Parliament, and if there were a byelection to get him in, Reform would fancy their chances of an upset. So it looks like Reeves or Cooper, neither of whom have covered themselves in glory since Labour have come to power.
    What’s the mechanism for that, when there’s a huge new intake of MPs that are potentially quite fringey in their political views and who might not want a cabinet stitch up in favour of those two? Perhaps it’s going to be done US style. A cabinet nominee who assumes PM, a vote of confidence in the house and a total bypassing of the usual labour leadership rules?
    I would love to have what you are having.

    It simply isn't possible unless

    1) SKS resigns
    2) only one candidate puts their name forward.

    And so far we have a few stories about receiving gifts and a very dodgy super injection story that even I know is a pile of kack..
    It's copium on the right.

    It's not easy to dump a PM mid-term and rightly so. Major survived Black Wednesday, Blair survived Iraq.

    For the Conservatives to have lost two PMs in quick succession was unprecedented. Until the party has a good story for how they screwed up so much twice in a row, they aren't a serious party of government. And the only one that really works is "I wasn't around then".

    So any current Conservative who wants their exile to be less than a decade has to normalise the idea that both sides are equally bad at choosing suitable PMs.

    Trouble is, that even if Starmer does turn out to be a Johnsonesque sleazeball (I rather doubt it), he needs to be followed by a nutter who only lasts seven weeks.

    Unlikely.
    Very unlikely - because Labour MPs won't be stupid enough to let just their membership pick the next PM - so you would see a stitch up like 2007, or at most, 2 centrist candidates getting nominated.

    What you won't see is a left wing candidate getting enough nominations to stand after Corbyn...

    I'm still trying to grasp how Tory MPs thought Truss was a suitable candidate..
    Relatedly: heretofore unseen levels of Cope on display by the Truss on the deep state that evicted her from her Prime Ministerial post: https://x.com/PoliticoForYou/status/1840723236499137012
    Liz Truss claims “Underground transgender mafia” were plotting against her and brought her leadership to an end.

    “They’re the ones really running this country.”
    Amazing.
    Really quite embarrassing the credulous idiots you get round here.


    Indeed it is. That post attributed to me is from someone else.

    :smiley:

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,610
    edited October 1
    Sky reporting that some prisoners let out on the early release scheme have not been given accommodation, so they are looking to commit another crime so they can be locked up again

    You couldn't make this up
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,585
    Andy_JS said:

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    Well it took 88 days for the government to lose their lead.
    It's not a VI poll.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    Wait until you all hear about the credulous idiots who think Liz Truss was a great PM.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,610
    Phil said:

    Given SKS

    - has taken £100,000 worth of freebies

    - more than every Labour leader put together since 1997

    - despite being in the top 1% of earners

    - refuses to stop taking them despite the damage it’s inflicted on Labour

    What’s the explanation other than that he’s greedy

    This is silly. SKS has not taken £100k worth of freebies because no-one would pay £100k at open market prices for the things he was granted.

    The problem is a single person apparently acting as sugar daddy for half the cabinet, not the £ amounts.
    It's over 5 years
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986

    Sky reporting that some prisoners let out on the early release scheme have not been given accommodation, so they are looking to commit another crime so they can be locked up again

    You couldn't make this up

    No, what you can't make up is a Party which led the Government of this countrty for 14 years and did the sum total of nothing to improve prison capacity or recruit more prison officers leaving the prisons full to bursting when they left office (or, rather, were unceremoniously booted out of office).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,032

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    More in Common haven't released the details yet, so that's from this Telegraph article: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/30/more-people-prefer-sunak-government-to-starmer-poll-finds/ It's a forced choice between the two parties. Other questions in the poll pretty bad for Labour.
    It's not a forced two party preference because there's still a don't know/nota option.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,897
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

    Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement :smile: I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).
    Come to BlueSky instead. That's increasingly where academic discussion is moving. Although the best place for publicising research outputs I find is probably LinkedIn.
    I started making a list of present/former pb or pb-adjacent people I recognized with a view to making a starter pack or something. Ping me on there if you want to be added to it.
    https://bsky.app/profile/goat.navy/lists/3l2347tg6fd2r
    So far I've stuck with Twitter because it would be quite hard work to rebuild such an interesting community - mine has developed since 2008 and has a lot of interesting people in it.

    Pinged you. I'm at https://bsky.app/profile/mattwardman.bsky.social .
    Saying - however subtly - that you are on Bluesky is going to become the marker of the worst type of vain lefty wanker. The social media equivalent of "oh, I only go to Gails, for my bread, lovely sourdough", "or no, actually, I'm a vegan, I can't even LOOK at meat"

    Bluesky is full of lefty twats congratulating each other for being on Bluesky
    Lefties don't like Gail's. Gail's is for the kind of people who live in Clapham - I've never been inside a Gail's in my life. I only even know about Gail's because class-obsessed PB Tories keep going on about it. And you can add this "Bluesky" thing to the list of things that Lefties are meant to be obsessed with but in reality only know about through rightwingers moaning about them on PB.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,979

    Wait until you all hear about the credulous idiots who think Liz Truss was a great PM.

    Would that be the same person who cannot attribute a quote properly !!!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Wait until you all hear about the credulous idiots who think Liz Truss was a great PM.

    No, surely nobody's that credulous ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,032

    Sky reporting that some prisoners let out on the early release scheme have not been given accommodation, so they are looking to commit another crime so they can be locked up again

    You couldn't make this up

    That's just embarrassing, there just seems to be no joined up thinking anywhere in the government and this isn't me having a go at the current lot, it was the same under the Tories and the same under Labour before that and so on.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Hardly a surprise. I have asked multiple times on here what purported qualities I am missing in Badenoch. She seems entirely without appeal – she was ineffective and cowardly as a minister and seems obsessed with trivial culture war nonsense. Nobody was able to articulate what it was about her that commended her to the leadership – and it seems the answer is indeed "sweet FA".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited October 1

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

    Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement :smile: I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).
    Come to BlueSky instead. That's increasingly where academic discussion is moving. Although the best place for publicising research outputs I find is probably LinkedIn.
    I started making a list of present/former pb or pb-adjacent people I recognized with a view to making a starter pack or something. Ping me on there if you want to be added to it.
    https://bsky.app/profile/goat.navy/lists/3l2347tg6fd2r
    So far I've stuck with Twitter because it would be quite hard work to rebuild such an interesting community - mine has developed since 2008 and has a lot of interesting people in it.

    Pinged you. I'm at https://bsky.app/profile/mattwardman.bsky.social .
    Saying - however subtly - that you are on Bluesky is going to become the marker of the worst type of vain lefty wanker. The social media equivalent of "oh, I only go to Gails, for my bread, lovely sourdough", "or no, actually, I'm a vegan, I can't even LOOK at meat"

    Bluesky is full of lefty twats congratulating each other for being on Bluesky
    Lefties don't like Gail's. Gail's is for the kind of people who live in Clapham - I've never been inside a Gail's in my life. I only even know about Gail's because class-obsessed PB Tories keep going on about it. And you can add this "Bluesky" thing to the list of things that Lefties are meant to be obsessed with but in reality only know about through rightwingers moaning about them on PB.
    I never said “lefties go to Gail’s” I said utter wankers drop it into conversion as they think it gives them some bizarre status

    However the first person to mention “oh I use Bluesky actually” on this thread appears to be @bondegezou
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,032
    Taz said:
    I fear Kemi will end up being a slightly more competent version of Liz Truss. She's appealing to the exact same demo in the Tory membership with these wild statements. I'm sure there's some businesses that couldn't deal with the minimum wage but the overall good it has done outweighs any downsides.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,979

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Twitter’s value now estimated to be down 79% since Musk took over.

    It has become unusable for me. I never did use it much but now I can't even look at it unless I give them some personal details. Since I do not wish to, it no longer exists for me.

    This has on the whole made a small improvement in the quality of my life.
    The date of birth thing? I thought I'd given them my standard fake birth date for organisations with no business knowing it, but I still get asked, so maybe I didn't. But I can simply close the prompt by clicking the cross and it doesn't seem to stop me doing anything.

    Still, being off Twitter may still be a net improvement :smile: I only really use it for two things, professionally as mainly a broadcast medium (publicising research outputs, calling for participants etc) and following links posted on here (for the latter, the need to be logged in to see any context beyond the immediately linked tweet does bug me).
    Come to BlueSky instead. That's increasingly where academic discussion is moving. Although the best place for publicising research outputs I find is probably LinkedIn.
    I started making a list of present/former pb or pb-adjacent people I recognized with a view to making a starter pack or something. Ping me on there if you want to be added to it.
    https://bsky.app/profile/goat.navy/lists/3l2347tg6fd2r
    So far I've stuck with Twitter because it would be quite hard work to rebuild such an interesting community - mine has developed since 2008 and has a lot of interesting people in it.

    Pinged you. I'm at https://bsky.app/profile/mattwardman.bsky.social .
    Saying - however subtly - that you are on Bluesky is going to become the marker of the worst type of vain lefty wanker. The social media equivalent of "oh, I only go to Gails, for my bread, lovely sourdough", "or no, actually, I'm a vegan, I can't even LOOK at meat"

    Bluesky is full of lefty twats congratulating each other for being on Bluesky
    Lefties don't like Gail's. Gail's is for the kind of people who live in Clapham - I've never been inside a Gail's in my life. I only even know about Gail's because class-obsessed PB Tories keep going on about it. And you can add this "Bluesky" thing to the list of things that Lefties are meant to be obsessed with but in reality only know about through rightwingers moaning about them on PB.
    Cannot be bothered with Bluesky, I am happy with Twitter. My feed is not too bad and when the odd Tommy Robinson or Katy Hopkins pops in I just block.

    As for Gails I thought the lefties didn't like it too, Due it supposed links to Israel.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:
    I fear Kemi will end up being a slightly more competent version of Liz Truss. She's appealing to the exact same demo in the Tory membership with these wild statements. I'm sure there's some businesses that couldn't deal with the minimum wage but the overall good it has done outweighs any downsides.
    She needs time to mature if she will mature at all

    Jenrick is the best of a bad lot
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:
    I fear Kemi will end up being a slightly more competent version of Liz Truss. She's appealing to the exact same demo in the Tory membership with these wild statements. I'm sure there's some businesses that couldn't deal with the minimum wage but the overall good it has done outweighs any downsides.
    It's just a crap argument. There is a valid argument that the minimum wage is too high as it means disabled people don't get any chance of working but that wasn't the argument she was making - her's is the race to the bottom, maximise profits argument that even Henry Ford saw was a bad idea.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Brits say they prefer the previous Conservative government to this Labour government.

    🟦 CON 31% (+7)
    🟥 LAB 29% (-6)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    Sir Keir will simply have to console himself with a parliamentary majority of 172.
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