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Trump as Corbyn, Biden as May, and Harris as Johnson? – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,941
    It's Axios, so pinch of salt. But worth noting nonetheless.

    Rep. Elissa Slotkin warns Harris is "underwater" in Michigan
    https://www.axios.com/2024/09/29/michigan-senate-race-slotkin-harris

    FWIW, there's a very similar Politico story from 2020.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/10/elissa-slotkin-congress-trump-351513

    And she is ex CIA.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,996
    A reminder: The US is a federal state, and controlling the national government does not mean you control all the state governments.

    Two examples: A state has to ask for federal aid in disasters. And the quality of the response depends more on the state government than the federal government. For example, in the Katrina disaster, Mississippi did far better than Louisiana. (Which helps explain why Louisiana elected a Bush official, Bobby Jindal, governor, shortly after.)

    Second: States have a choice of whether or not to use E-Verify. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Verify (I think all should, particularly for public employers.)

    "Research shows that E-Verify harms the labor market outcomes of illegal immigrants and improves the labor market outcomes of Mexican legal immigrants and U.S.-born Hispanics, but has no impact on labor market outcomes for non-Hispanic white Americans.[6] A 2016 study suggests that E-Verify reduces the number of illegal immigrants in states that have mandated use of E-Verify for all employers, and further notes that the program may deter illegal immigration to the United States in general."

    Does Musk understand the US federal system? I have no idea.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,941

    A reminder: The US is a federal state, and controlling the national government does not mean you control all the state governments.

    Two examples: A state has to ask for federal aid in disasters. And the quality of the response depends more on the state government than the federal government. For example, in the Katrina disaster, Mississippi did far better than Louisiana. (Which helps explain why Louisiana elected a Bush official, Bobby Jindal, governor, shortly after.)

    Second: States have a choice of whether or not to use E-Verify. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Verify (I think all should, particularly for public employers.)

    "Research shows that E-Verify harms the labor market outcomes of illegal immigrants and improves the labor market outcomes of Mexican legal immigrants and U.S.-born Hispanics, but has no impact on labor market outcomes for non-Hispanic white Americans.[6] A 2016 study suggests that E-Verify reduces the number of illegal immigrants in states that have mandated use of E-Verify for all employers, and further notes that the program may deter illegal immigration to the United States in general."

    Does Musk understand the US federal system? I have no idea.

    I have a pretty good idea...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,039

    A reminder: The US is a federal state, and controlling the national government does not mean you control all the state governments.

    Two examples: A state has to ask for federal aid in disasters. And the quality of the response depends more on the state government than the federal government. For example, in the Katrina disaster, Mississippi did far better than Louisiana. (Which helps explain why Louisiana elected a Bush official, Bobby Jindal, governor, shortly after.)

    Second: States have a choice of whether or not to use E-Verify. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Verify (I think all should, particularly for public employers.)

    "Research shows that E-Verify harms the labor market outcomes of illegal immigrants and improves the labor market outcomes of Mexican legal immigrants and U.S.-born Hispanics, but has no impact on labor market outcomes for non-Hispanic white Americans.[6] A 2016 study suggests that E-Verify reduces the number of illegal immigrants in states that have mandated use of E-Verify for all employers, and further notes that the program may deter illegal immigration to the United States in general."

    Does Musk understand the US federal system? I have no idea.

    The universal usage of E-Verify would do more to discourage illegal immigration than any other single measure.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,039
    stodge said:

    All I'll offer on Musk's comments is I would strongly dispute his view illegal immigrants will always be in the Democrat camp.

    There are plenty of instances suggesting once "illegal" immigrants receive amnesty and join society, all they want to do is make a life of themselves so they become workers, pay taxes, use services and come to appreciate (if applicable) the weakness of the social democratic economic model.

    Within a few years your Democrat voting immigrant becomes your Republican voting citizen opposed to further immigration and wanting tax cuts and the Government off his/her back.

    Musk is wrong - democracy doesn't end, societal evolution never ends, the argument never ends.

    There is a constant human failing, to see one's own group as diverse... while thinking other groups are monolithic.

    We're all just humans. And we all have pretty much the same Hierarchy of Needs.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    ConHome Pre conference Tory members survey

    Badenoch 36%, Jenrick 25%, Tugendhat 13%, Cleverly 13%.

    Head to head Badenoch 59% Cleverly 30%, Badenoch 63% Tugendhat 27%, Badenoch 50% Jenrick 37%.

    Jenrick 58% Tugendhat 31%, Jenrick 51% Cleverly 37%.

    Cloeverly 48% Tugendhat 30%
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/09/29/jenrick-starts-to-close-the-gap-with-badenoch-in-our-pre-conference-leadership-survey/

    I have a fiver on Kemi. Just sayin' :)
    I think she only gets 3rd, it will be Jenrick v Tugendhat or Cleverly the MPs send to the members
    The members are going to be furious. They want Kemi.
    Given Jenrick is now pitching himself as right of Kemi on immigration I suspect they would accept him
    But is Jenrick the real deal or, as many suspect, a centrist cos-playing right for this leadership election? What, if anything, does he really believe? (What we might call the Starmer question!)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,500
    Very much hoping to be able to wish Jimmy Carter a happy 100th birthday tomorrow (Tuesday). Joe Biden has apparently already done so.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-joe-biden-on-jimmy-carters-100th-birthday/
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,075
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    All I'll offer on Musk's comments is I would strongly dispute his view illegal immigrants will always be in the Democrat camp.

    There are plenty of instances suggesting once "illegal" immigrants receive amnesty and join society, all they want to do is make a life of themselves so they become workers, pay taxes, use services and come to appreciate (if applicable) the weakness of the social democratic economic model.

    Within a few years your Democrat voting immigrant becomes your Republican voting citizen opposed to further immigration and wanting tax cuts and the Government off his/her back.

    Musk is wrong - democracy doesn't end, societal evolution never ends, the argument never ends.

    There is a constant human failing, to see one's own group as diverse... while thinking other groups are monolithic.

    We're all just humans. And we all have pretty much the same Hierarchy of Needs.
    Musk is a product of apartheid South Africa, I often think his world view reflects that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    edited September 30
    carnforth said:

    So far, so Milei:

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/argentinas-milei-plans-privatize-state-airline-by-decree-2024-09-27/

    But this jumps out:

    "Adorni said Aerolineas currently employs 1,204 pilots to fly 81 planes, or nearly 15 pilots per plane."

    I wonder what the expected ratio is for an airline using its planes properly 24/7. 3? 5?

    Emirates has about 4,000 pilots for 260 planes, so not a million miles away.

    I suspect that the average Emirates plane is a lot more utilised than the average Aerolineas plane though.

    Long-haul flying uses a lot of pilots, as they have rest requirements and hours limits. A pilot is only allowed to fly 90 hours in a month and 900 hours in a year. Flights over 9 hours need three pilots, and over I think over 13 hours need four pilots, all of whom need to be replaced for the return leg unless they want to leave the plane idle for a day and a half. The crew for the return have to be rested in the hotel, they can’t be deadheading out as passengers and fly back on the same plane.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,941
    Trump in Erie, PA, says in US “the police aren’t allowed to do their job.”

    To stop crime, you need “one really violent day.”

    He says: “One rough hour and I mean real rough, the word would get out and it would end immediately.”

    https://x.com/SebastianAFP/status/1840468835863855517
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,975
    Pro_Rata said:

    Question:
    In legislative elections, does any party in Western Europe now have a higher vote share than the British Labour Party?

    Austria's ÖVP had 37.5% under Kurz at the last election, which has now been replaced with a sub 30% number.

    Obviously electoral systems play a role, but there feels like a trend towards winning on lower vote share whilst third and fourth placed parties gain ground.

    Labour won the 2022 Maltese general election with 55.1% of the vote (under STV), but that’s the only example I can think of. PP got 33.1% in Spain last year, only just below UK Labour’s figure.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    So far, so Milei:

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/argentinas-milei-plans-privatize-state-airline-by-decree-2024-09-27/

    But this jumps out:

    "Adorni said Aerolineas currently employs 1,204 pilots to fly 81 planes, or nearly 15 pilots per plane."

    I wonder what the expected ratio is for an airline using its planes properly 24/7. 3? 5?

    There are at least 2 pilots per plane per journey of course.
    US pilots fly an average of 75 hours per month:

    https://www.pilotmall.com/blogs/news/a-day-in-the-life-what-is-a-pilot-s-schedule-really-like#:~:text=The CFRs limit Part 121,performing other non-flying duties.

    So allowing for duty rosters, annual leave, sickness, pilots in training etc it doesn't seem a ridiculous figure, depending on how intensively the planes fly. The planes will also have down time too.
    30 hours a month seems to be the average that planes are in the air globally which would indicate roughly that pilots are in the air twice as often as planes (which makes fits with planes having two pilots each).

    Of course that's an average and some airlines are more efficient than that average and fly planes more, not sure on the efficiency or productivity of Aerolineas specifically.
    Your average commercial airliner will likely be in the air somewhere in the order of 300-500 hours per month. They fly at least 12 hours a day and at least six days a week, with most routine maintenance done overnight.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,827
    edited September 30
    Israel at it again,

    Three Palestinian leaders killed in Israel strike in Beirut

    A Palestinian militant group said on Monday that three of its leaders were killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut, the first attack within city limits as Israel escalated hostilities against Iran's allies in the region. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) said the three leaders were killed in a strike that targeted Beirut's Kola district.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/

    If you are upper management of any group that stands against Israel and get invited to a meeting of the leadership team, odds aren't good of getting to the nice cakes at the end of the meeting.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    I did think that sounded a hell of a lot of people for some data centres....have people not watched Silicon Valley tv show!

    A £10bn artificial intelligence hub championed by Sir Keir Starmer for creating thousands of new jobs could boast just 300 full-time staff once completed, it has emerged.

    The vast data centre project in Northumberland, announced by the Prime Minister last week, will lead to only 300 to 400 permanent staff employed at the site instead of the 4,000 roles indicated by its financial backers.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/29/labour-backed-10bn-tech-hub-will-have-300-permanent-staff/

    You’d expect an AI data centre to have 30 to 40 people at most working there once it’s up and running.

    300-400 for the installation and testing phases perhaps, and a few thousand to actually build the building, all of which are temporary.
  • Sandpit said:

    I did think that sounded a hell of a lot of people for some data centres....have people not watched Silicon Valley tv show!

    A £10bn artificial intelligence hub championed by Sir Keir Starmer for creating thousands of new jobs could boast just 300 full-time staff once completed, it has emerged.

    The vast data centre project in Northumberland, announced by the Prime Minister last week, will lead to only 300 to 400 permanent staff employed at the site instead of the 4,000 roles indicated by its financial backers.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/29/labour-backed-10bn-tech-hub-will-have-300-permanent-staff/

    You’d expect an AI data centre to have 30 to 40 people at most working there once it’s up and running.

    300-400 for the installation and testing phases perhaps, and a few thousand to actually build the building, all of which are temporary.
    The plan is for 10 data centres on that site, so 300 mole people doesn't seem crazy.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,975
    What is Badenoch playing at? Either she wants to cut maternity pay, a vote loser; or she was exceedingly clumsy in what she was saying in an interview, a vote loser; or she rapidly U-turned on the topic, a vote loser.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485

    Israel at it again,

    Three Palestinian leaders killed in Israel strike in Beirut

    A Palestinian militant group said on Monday that three of its leaders were killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut, the first attack within city limits as Israel escalated hostilities against Iran's allies in the region. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) said the three leaders were killed in a strike that targeted Beirut's Kola district.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/

    If you are upper management of any group that stands against Israel and get invited to a meeting of the leadership team, odds aren't good of getting to the nice cakes at the end of the meeting.

    IMV the Israelis are getting info from somewhere they don't normally get info. That leads to the question: who?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,301
    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    All I'll offer on Musk's comments is I would strongly dispute his view illegal immigrants will always be in the Democrat camp.

    There are plenty of instances suggesting once "illegal" immigrants receive amnesty and join society, all they want to do is make a life of themselves so they become workers, pay taxes, use services and come to appreciate (if applicable) the weakness of the social democratic economic model.

    Within a few years your Democrat voting immigrant becomes your Republican voting citizen opposed to further immigration and wanting tax cuts and the Government off his/her back.

    Musk is wrong - democracy doesn't end, societal evolution never ends, the argument never ends.

    There is a constant human failing, to see one's own group as diverse... while thinking other groups are monolithic.

    We're all just humans. And we all have pretty much the same Hierarchy of Needs.
    Musk is a product of apartheid South Africa, I often think his world view reflects that.
    It's not confined to him.

    My LinkedIn feed has had a few posts with #averagewhiteman on it over the last few days, posted by professional females, who are guilty of exhibiting exactly the same human failing Robert describes.

    However, in liberal professional circles that is considered an acceptable prejudice.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    An incredibly detailed - and well informed - blog on the exploding Russian ammo depots. With some deadpan Aussie humour sledging the Russians.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkwP727sAxg

    That was both informative and funny.

    As Jamie Hyneman would say, huge ammo stockpile make very big boom!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,975
    edited September 30

    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    All I'll offer on Musk's comments is I would strongly dispute his view illegal immigrants will always be in the Democrat camp.

    There are plenty of instances suggesting once "illegal" immigrants receive amnesty and join society, all they want to do is make a life of themselves so they become workers, pay taxes, use services and come to appreciate (if applicable) the weakness of the social democratic economic model.

    Within a few years your Democrat voting immigrant becomes your Republican voting citizen opposed to further immigration and wanting tax cuts and the Government off his/her back.

    Musk is wrong - democracy doesn't end, societal evolution never ends, the argument never ends.

    There is a constant human failing, to see one's own group as diverse... while thinking other groups are monolithic.

    We're all just humans. And we all have pretty much the same Hierarchy of Needs.
    Musk is a product of apartheid South Africa, I often think his world view reflects that.
    It's not confined to him.

    My LinkedIn feed has had a few posts with #averagewhiteman on it over the last few days, posted by professional females, who are guilty of exhibiting exactly the same human failing Robert describes.

    However, in liberal professional circles that is considered an acceptable prejudice.
    You do understand the difference between that and apartheid, don’t you?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,194
    edited September 30

    What is Badenoch playing at? Either she wants to cut maternity pay, a vote loser; or she was exceedingly clumsy in what she was saying in an interview, a vote loser; or she rapidly U-turned on the topic, a vote loser.

    I imagine that she is genuine and sincere in her wish to shrink shrink spending. And unlike a lot who wish that end, she is willing to actually cut specific bits of state spending. Because the savings from investment-free efficiency (indistinguishable from enshittification) have gone about as far as they can without bits actually falling off.

    Trouble is (Chesterton's Fence again!) all those programmes were put in place for a reason, and most of those reasons are still valid. So you can't cut, say, Maternity Pay without sounding like a crazy person.

    One of the good things about KB is the sense that she has no filter, she says what she thinks. Unlike Jenrick. We need people like that, but not right at the top.

    The Nicholas Ridley of our generation?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    edited September 30

    Israel at it again,

    Three Palestinian leaders killed in Israel strike in Beirut

    A Palestinian militant group said on Monday that three of its leaders were killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut, the first attack within city limits as Israel escalated hostilities against Iran's allies in the region. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) said the three leaders were killed in a strike that targeted Beirut's Kola district.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/

    If you are upper management of any group that stands against Israel and get invited to a meeting of the leadership team, odds aren't good of getting to the nice cakes at the end of the meeting.

    They need to learn from Hamas and have their group meetings in fancy international hotels in Doha, where no-one is going to lob missiles at them lest they trigger a diplomatic nightmare by accidentally taking out random Westerners.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,975

    What is Badenoch playing at? Either she wants to cut maternity pay, a vote loser; or she was exceedingly clumsy in what she was saying in an interview, a vote loser; or she rapidly U-turned on the topic, a vote loser.

    I imagine that she is genuine and sincere in her wish to shrink shrink spending. And unlike a lot who wish that end, she is willing to actually cut specific bits of state spending. Because the savings from investment-free efficiency (indistinguishable from enshittification) have gone about as far as they can without bits actually falling off.

    Trouble is (Chesterton's Fence again!) all those programmes were put in place for a reason, and most of those reasons are still valid. So you can't cut, say, Maternity Pay without sounding like a crazy person.

    One of the good things about KB is the sense that she has no filter, she says what she thinks. Unlike Jenrick. We need people like that, but not right at the top.

    The Nicholas Ridley of our generation?
    She says what she thinks, then walks back what she said and pretends she said something else.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,486

    Israel at it again,

    A Palestinian militant group said on Monday that three of its leaders were killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut, the first attack within city limits as Israel escalated hostilities against Iran's allies in the region. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) said the three leaders were killed in a strike that targeted Beirut's Kola district.

    The Palestine Popular Liberation Front counting his blessings for being a splitter...

    For now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,486
    Nigelb said:

    Trump in Erie, PA, says in US “the police aren’t allowed to do their job.”

    To stop crime, you need “one really violent day.”

    He says: “One rough hour and I mean real rough, the word would get out and it would end immediately.”

    https://x.com/SebastianAFP/status/1840468835863855517

    Would that be the same day as him being a dictator?

    There'd be quite the body count. At all those lynchings.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,301

    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    All I'll offer on Musk's comments is I would strongly dispute his view illegal immigrants will always be in the Democrat camp.

    There are plenty of instances suggesting once "illegal" immigrants receive amnesty and join society, all they want to do is make a life of themselves so they become workers, pay taxes, use services and come to appreciate (if applicable) the weakness of the social democratic economic model.

    Within a few years your Democrat voting immigrant becomes your Republican voting citizen opposed to further immigration and wanting tax cuts and the Government off his/her back.

    Musk is wrong - democracy doesn't end, societal evolution never ends, the argument never ends.

    There is a constant human failing, to see one's own group as diverse... while thinking other groups are monolithic.

    We're all just humans. And we all have pretty much the same Hierarchy of Needs.
    Musk is a product of apartheid South Africa, I often think his world view reflects that.
    It's not confined to him.

    My LinkedIn feed has had a few posts with #averagewhiteman on it over the last few days, posted by professional females, who are guilty of exhibiting exactly the same human failing Robert describes.

    However, in liberal professional circles that is considered an acceptable prejudice.
    You do understand the difference between that and apartheid, don’t you?
    What an absurd post.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,301
    Has anyone actually succeeded with financial and policy incentives in raising the birth rate?

    Or, is it inelastic to such incentives and largely a function of sociocultural choice?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,941
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Trump in Erie, PA, says in US “the police aren’t allowed to do their job.”

    To stop crime, you need “one really violent day.”

    He says: “One rough hour and I mean real rough, the word would get out and it would end immediately.”

    https://x.com/SebastianAFP/status/1840468835863855517

    Would that be the same day as him being a dictator?

    There'd be quite the body count. At all those lynchings.
    He's an idiot, but a dangerous one.
  • Nigelb said:

    Trump in Erie, PA, says in US “the police aren’t allowed to do their job.”

    To stop crime, you need “one really violent day.”

    He says: “One rough hour and I mean real rough, the word would get out and it would end immediately.”

    https://x.com/SebastianAFP/status/1840468835863855517

    In its own way, that is quite clever. Trump is saying, look, I'm on your side. I've not got a scooby what to do about violent crime, so can offer no policy. And of course, the crowd knows Trump is not actually going to declare criminals outlaws, not even for a day or just an hour, but still, he's on our side, he gets it.

    Bonus points if Kamala gets dragged down this rabbit hole.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485

    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    All I'll offer on Musk's comments is I would strongly dispute his view illegal immigrants will always be in the Democrat camp.

    There are plenty of instances suggesting once "illegal" immigrants receive amnesty and join society, all they want to do is make a life of themselves so they become workers, pay taxes, use services and come to appreciate (if applicable) the weakness of the social democratic economic model.

    Within a few years your Democrat voting immigrant becomes your Republican voting citizen opposed to further immigration and wanting tax cuts and the Government off his/her back.

    Musk is wrong - democracy doesn't end, societal evolution never ends, the argument never ends.

    There is a constant human failing, to see one's own group as diverse... while thinking other groups are monolithic.

    We're all just humans. And we all have pretty much the same Hierarchy of Needs.
    Musk is a product of apartheid South Africa, I often think his world view reflects that.
    It's not confined to him.

    My LinkedIn feed has had a few posts with #averagewhiteman on it over the last few days, posted by professional females, who are guilty of exhibiting exactly the same human failing Robert describes.

    However, in liberal professional circles that is considered an acceptable prejudice.
    Would you care to give examples, please?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Funny video of the morning. Waymo self-driving car gets stuck in the middle of the road in San Francisco, just as the Secret Service are trying to close the road for Kamala Harris and her motorcade.

    https://x.com/LaurenABC7/status/1839883724621529202

    A local policeman had to get into the the car and manually drive it out of the way.

    Every day they find a new edge case for these SD cars, it probably got confused by seeing a lot of unusual vehicles all with flashing blue/red lights and just stopped.

    As someone commented underneath, only in San Francisco.

    Someone today is going to have the job of training the Waymo cars on what a VIP transport motorcade looks like and how it works.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,753
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Royale, I saw an interesting video about South Korea's ruinous birthrate, which was attributed to the very high degree of competition at school and work (women are not exempt, and are expected to both have excellent careers *and* be the sole/primary carer), and the very high cost of living.

    Just on Badenoch: I'm sure her maternity comments will cause her more damage. But employers do consider how generous maternity leave is when interviewing for new employees. It's a big reason not to hire a woman, if you've got two equal candidates, one male, one female. The idea generous maternity leave is only a good thing is not true.
  • NEW THREAD

  • Has anyone actually succeeded with financial and policy incentives in raising the birth rate?

    Or, is it inelastic to such incentives and largely a function of sociocultural choice?

    Some case studies here:

    https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20191017-does-it-make-sense-to-pay-people-to-have-kids

    My TLDR is that it certainly helps- and if you believe in incentives, how could it not? But not enormously (we're taking 1.3 to 1.7, for example) and as part of a wider cultural mix.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737

    What is Badenoch playing at? Either she wants to cut maternity pay, a vote loser; or she was exceedingly clumsy in what she was saying in an interview, a vote loser; or she rapidly U-turned on the topic, a vote loser.

    I imagine that she is genuine and sincere in her wish to shrink shrink spending. And unlike a lot who wish that end, she is willing to actually cut specific bits of state spending. Because the savings from investment-free efficiency (indistinguishable from enshittification) have gone about as far as they can without bits actually falling off.

    Trouble is (Chesterton's Fence again!) all those programmes were put in place for a reason, and most of those reasons are still valid. So you can't cut, say, Maternity Pay without sounding like a crazy person.

    One of the good things about KB is the sense that she has no filter, she says what she thinks. Unlike Jenrick. We need people like that, but not right at the top.

    The Nicholas Ridley of our generation?
    I’ve not been particularly tuned in recently but heard of this interview because the bbc radio amplified it as a major gaffe. Personally I thought, how refreshing that someone is prepared to talk specifics of over regulation even when it goes against the group-think and might be controversial. It’s a shame the childish “gotcha” attitude of her competitors meant she felt she had to walk back the comments.

    Feels to me like Tory MPs still haven’t learnt their lesson. Members (and then the electorate) decisively chose Johnson, and utterly rejected Jeremy Hunt. Johnson casually defenestrated by MPs. Members decisively choose Truss, utterly rejecting Sunak. Tory MPs think it a good idea to instead fight the election with a duo of Sunak and Hunt.

    If this most “sophisticated” electorate think it wise to keep her name off the ballot, they deserve everything coming to them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,301

    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    All I'll offer on Musk's comments is I would strongly dispute his view illegal immigrants will always be in the Democrat camp.

    There are plenty of instances suggesting once "illegal" immigrants receive amnesty and join society, all they want to do is make a life of themselves so they become workers, pay taxes, use services and come to appreciate (if applicable) the weakness of the social democratic economic model.

    Within a few years your Democrat voting immigrant becomes your Republican voting citizen opposed to further immigration and wanting tax cuts and the Government off his/her back.

    Musk is wrong - democracy doesn't end, societal evolution never ends, the argument never ends.

    There is a constant human failing, to see one's own group as diverse... while thinking other groups are monolithic.

    We're all just humans. And we all have pretty much the same Hierarchy of Needs.
    Musk is a product of apartheid South Africa, I often think his world view reflects that.
    It's not confined to him.

    My LinkedIn feed has had a few posts with #averagewhiteman on it over the last few days, posted by professional females, who are guilty of exhibiting exactly the same human failing Robert describes.

    However, in liberal professional circles that is considered an acceptable prejudice.
    Would you care to give examples, please?
    These are posts on my LinkedIn right now.

    Also,the other day,an ex-colleague who is actually a friend started complaining about white men to me as being the source of the problems, half-apologising when she detected it wasn't going down well with me.

    This is widespread.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485

    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    All I'll offer on Musk's comments is I would strongly dispute his view illegal immigrants will always be in the Democrat camp.

    There are plenty of instances suggesting once "illegal" immigrants receive amnesty and join society, all they want to do is make a life of themselves so they become workers, pay taxes, use services and come to appreciate (if applicable) the weakness of the social democratic economic model.

    Within a few years your Democrat voting immigrant becomes your Republican voting citizen opposed to further immigration and wanting tax cuts and the Government off his/her back.

    Musk is wrong - democracy doesn't end, societal evolution never ends, the argument never ends.

    There is a constant human failing, to see one's own group as diverse... while thinking other groups are monolithic.

    We're all just humans. And we all have pretty much the same Hierarchy of Needs.
    Musk is a product of apartheid South Africa, I often think his world view reflects that.
    It's not confined to him.

    My LinkedIn feed has had a few posts with #averagewhiteman on it over the last few days, posted by professional females, who are guilty of exhibiting exactly the same human failing Robert describes.

    However, in liberal professional circles that is considered an acceptable prejudice.
    Would you care to give examples, please?
    These are posts on my LinkedIn right now.

    Also,the other day,an ex-colleague who is actually a friend started complaining about white men to me as being the source of the problems, half-apologising when she detected it wasn't going down well with me.

    This is widespread.
    I haven't seen it. It'd be nice if you could post some examples, to see what point is trying to be made.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677

    What is Badenoch playing at? Either she wants to cut maternity pay, a vote loser; or she was exceedingly clumsy in what she was saying in an interview, a vote loser; or she rapidly U-turned on the topic, a vote loser.

    She was supposed to be a good speaker, but - as you point out - she's either terrible at explaining her position or has crazy radical positions that she's too weak to actually defend when challenged.

    So she loses support from the centre for the radical views and, presumably, from the frothing edges because she seems to lack the guts to actually stand by it when challenged. Happy with the lay (and good tips on here before the campaign).
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