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Love’s Labour’s Lost – politicalbetting.com

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  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the expectation of work and work assessments for people on sickness benefits is the first Labour policy I support. The Tories should have done this in 2022. We also need to move to independent work assessments rather than GPs.

    I remember someone at my old workplace worked out it would need ~4.5k centrally contracted doctors to give everyone on sickness benefits one 30 minute work assessment every 90 days but it would also take a significant chunk out of GP appointment schedules freeing up resource for people who are sick and looking to get better rather than people who are chronically sick and won't get better or people who aren't sick and just want to get signed off by scamming and pretending they are.

    There's probably 1.5m people that can be pushed into the lesser unemployment benefits or back into work if this is done right and that will result in a ~£10bn saving at least.

    It's rare we agree on anything but I'm happy to agree with you on this.

    It's difficult and there are undoubtedly genuine cases of people who cannot work because of long-term debilitating or chronic conditions and I've every sympathy for those individuals.

    Mental health is one of those areas where the Coalition did some very good work - stress is a thing, I saw it many times in my working life and people react to it in different ways, some relish it, others don't. Helping those for whom stress is a negative experience get back to work is something all thoughtful employers should be and are about.

    That said, there are unquestionably a number who are playing the system to get sickness benefit in lieu of working for a living and that has to be the target. Whether that number is 1.5 million or not I don't know.
    Are there 1.5m jobs for them out there, though?
    This is where the paradox lies and it was interesting to hear some discussion about this on LBC this morning. Is there a pool of labour out there? Some say yes, some say no. Does that align to the jobs which need filling? That's the other question. An employer rang in and was tearing his hair out over people not turning up to interviews even when invited and there seems an extraordinary high percentage of new workers who quit their jobs on the first day.

    As I said here before, if you have 100 people apply for 20 jobs you have an unemployment problem, if you have 40 people apply for 20 jobs you have close to full employment, if you have 10 people apply for 20 jobs you have an under-employment problem. In some parts of the economy, we have an under-employment problem - it may well be the pool of specialist skilled labour which once existed does so no longer.

    What you have internally is a core of the unemployable - people who can't work or don't want to work for whatever reason (genuine or otherwise). Getting them into work is a struggle - plugging the gaps in areas of specialist work is much more difficult. How do you create the skilled labour force you need? Two ways - either train them (which takes them but would be an economically beneficial thing if done right) or import them....
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    IanB2 said:

    mercator said:

    viewcode said:

    mercator said:

    Awkward moment in Sweden last time I visited. I had a full English breakfast in the capital and part of it fell in love with me.

    I have an image of a plate of beans sending you a love letter. Please explain
    Stockholm syndrome is a proposed condition or theory that tries to explain why hostages sometimes develop a psychological bond with their captors.[1][2]
    Psst: It’s best to try and disguise cut and pastes from Wikipedia by deleting the bracketed numbers
    Au contraire I leave them in on purpose to save me the trouble of a link.

    Is the US notably more expensive than the time of your last visit?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    I gave up my walk at the end of day one

    I walked twenty miles and didn't quite make it to Devizes

    I was very wet and very lost. The rain and wind got worse all day, and my phone couldn't tell me where I was

    It told.me I was in Malmesbury, Chippenham, Marlborough and Amesbury. It never once gave me a location between Avebury and Devizes (where I actually was). I couldn't see more than half a mile ahead of me, so couldn't even navigate by landmarks

    I got helpful directions from a local Caleb when I was quite lost. He told me to cross a meadow, to save about a mile. He was right that it was a shorter distance, but I had to walk through thigh to waist high, wet grass

    I had to stop to rest about every thirty seconds. I finally crossed the meadow after about an hour, and having got wet to my bones

    I carried on and after about another hour and a half's walk down another massive puddle infested farm track, ended up in a lay-by next to a small fast and wet road

    This was when my phone was telling me that I was just outside Chippenham. It was getting dark and I didn't know where I was; even if I'd known I didn't have enough signal to call a taxi to tell it that I didn't know where I was

    I was about to start to sob when a car pulled into the lay-by and the lovely Irish lady driver asked if I needed help

    She drove my very wet arse all the way home, and wouldn't even accept a bit of cash for the fuel

    I'm glad you didn't end up stranded in the middle of nowhere.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    I gave up my walk at the end of day one

    I walked twenty miles and didn't quite make it to Devizes

    I was very wet and very lost. The rain and wind got worse all day, and my phone couldn't tell me where I was

    It told.me I was in Malmesbury, Chippenham, Marlborough and Amesbury. It never once gave me a location between Avebury and Devizes (where I actually was). I couldn't see more than half a mile ahead of me, so couldn't even navigate by landmarks

    I got helpful directions from a local Caleb when I was quite lost. He told me to cross a meadow, to save about a mile. He was right that it was a shorter distance, but I had to walk through thigh to waist high, wet grass

    I had to stop to rest about every thirty seconds. I finally crossed the meadow after about an hour, and having got wet to my bones

    I carried on and after about another hour and a half's walk down another massive puddle infested farm track, ended up in a lay-by next to a small fast and wet road

    This was when my phone was telling me that I was just outside Chippenham. It was getting dark and I didn't know where I was; even if I'd known I didn't have enough signal to call a taxi to tell it that I didn't know where I was

    I was about to start to sob when a car pulled into the lay-by and the lovely Irish lady driver asked if I needed help

    She drove my very wet arse all the way home, and wouldn't even accept a bit of cash for the fuel

    :(

    Sorry to hear that.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    I gave up my walk at the end of day one

    I walked twenty miles and didn't quite make it to Devizes

    I was very wet and very lost. The rain and wind got worse all day, and my phone couldn't tell me where I was

    It told.me I was in Malmesbury, Chippenham, Marlborough and Amesbury. It never once gave me a location between Avebury and Devizes (where I actually was). I couldn't see more than half a mile ahead of me, so couldn't even navigate by landmarks

    I got helpful directions from a local Caleb when I was quite lost. He told me to cross a meadow, to save about a mile. He was right that it was a shorter distance, but I had to walk through thigh to waist high, wet grass

    I had to stop to rest about every thirty seconds. I finally crossed the meadow after about an hour, and having got wet to my bones

    I carried on and after about another hour and a half's walk down another massive puddle infested farm track, ended up in a lay-by next to a small fast and wet road

    This was when my phone was telling me that I was just outside Chippenham. It was getting dark and I didn't know where I was; even if I'd known I didn't have enough signal to call a taxi to tell it that I didn't know where I was

    I was about to start to sob when a car pulled into the lay-by and the lovely Irish lady driver asked if I needed help

    She drove my very wet arse all the way home, and wouldn't even accept a bit of cash for the fuel

    Normally I'd say - what about the paper map, but yesterday was not a day for paper maps...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    I gave up my walk at the end of day one

    I walked twenty miles and didn't quite make it to Devizes

    (Snip)

    Sorry to hear about that; it looks as though you hit a bout of poor weather. Sometimes its wisest to bail out and try again another day.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    stodge said:

    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the expectation of work and work assessments for people on sickness benefits is the first Labour policy I support. The Tories should have done this in 2022. We also need to move to independent work assessments rather than GPs.

    I remember someone at my old workplace worked out it would need ~4.5k centrally contracted doctors to give everyone on sickness benefits one 30 minute work assessment every 90 days but it would also take a significant chunk out of GP appointment schedules freeing up resource for people who are sick and looking to get better rather than people who are chronically sick and won't get better or people who aren't sick and just want to get signed off by scamming and pretending they are.

    There's probably 1.5m people that can be pushed into the lesser unemployment benefits or back into work if this is done right and that will result in a ~£10bn saving at least.

    It's rare we agree on anything but I'm happy to agree with you on this.

    It's difficult and there are undoubtedly genuine cases of people who cannot work because of long-term debilitating or chronic conditions and I've every sympathy for those individuals.

    Mental health is one of those areas where the Coalition did some very good work - stress is a thing, I saw it many times in my working life and people react to it in different ways, some relish it, others don't. Helping those for whom stress is a negative experience get back to work is something all thoughtful employers should be and are about.

    That said, there are unquestionably a number who are playing the system to get sickness benefit in lieu of working for a living and that has to be the target. Whether that number is 1.5 million or not I don't know.
    Are there 1.5m jobs for them out there, though?
    This is where the paradox lies and it was interesting to hear some discussion about this on LBC this morning. Is there a pool of labour out there? Some say yes, some say no. Does that align to the jobs which need filling? That's the other question. An employer rang in and was tearing his hair out over people not turning up to interviews even when invited and there seems an extraordinary high percentage of new workers who quit their jobs on the first day.

    As I said here before, if you have 100 people apply for 20 jobs you have an unemployment problem, if you have 40 people apply for 20 jobs you have close to full employment, if you have 10 people apply for 20 jobs you have an under-employment problem. In some parts of the economy, we have an under-employment problem - it may well be the pool of specialist skilled labour which once existed does so no longer.

    What you have internally is a core of the unemployable - people who can't work or don't want to work for whatever reason (genuine or otherwise). Getting them into work is a struggle - plugging the gaps in areas of specialist work is much more difficult. How do you create the skilled labour force you need? Two ways - either train them (which takes them but would be an economically beneficial thing if done right) or import them....
    Certainly in the white collar world the employment market is tighter than I've seen it since the GFC. I'm talking 100 applicants to every job. My LinkedIn is full of posts of people who've been out of work for over a year. That's anecdata, but the FT is saying the same thing - https://www.ft.com/content/1429fcb2-e0ef-4e47-b2b8-8bd225ac2fe2 (and the comments section full of similar stories).

    I'm assuming most of the people on long term sick leave aren't competing for well paid middle class knowledge jobs, though. So what you actually get by shunting 1.5m low skilled workers into the workforce is problematic, as you can't lower the wage for unskilled work below the minimum wage. So, as you say, you need to upskill people. Else you just have mass unemployment. Which means spending money on training the 1.5m to be plumbers or programmers or whatever else is needed.

    I'm in total agreement that many of the 1.5m on long term sickness benefits should be working. I'm just not sure the jobs are out there, though.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,946
    MaxPB said:

    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the expectation of work and work assessments for people on sickness benefits is the first Labour policy I support. The Tories should have done this in 2022. We also need to move to independent work assessments rather than GPs.

    I remember someone at my old workplace worked out it would need ~4.5k centrally contracted doctors to give everyone on sickness benefits one 30 minute work assessment every 90 days but it would also take a significant chunk out of GP appointment schedules freeing up resource for people who are sick and looking to get better rather than people who are chronically sick and won't get better or people who aren't sick and just want to get signed off by scamming and pretending they are.

    There's probably 1.5m people that can be pushed into the lesser unemployment benefits or back into work if this is done right and that will result in a ~£10bn saving at least.

    It's rare we agree on anything but I'm happy to agree with you on this.

    It's difficult and there are undoubtedly genuine cases of people who cannot work because of long-term debilitating or chronic conditions and I've every sympathy for those individuals.

    Mental health is one of those areas where the Coalition did some very good work - stress is a thing, I saw it many times in my working life and people react to it in different ways, some relish it, others don't. Helping those for whom stress is a negative experience get back to work is something all thoughtful employers should be and are about.

    That said, there are unquestionably a number who are playing the system to get sickness benefit in lieu of working for a living and that has to be the target. Whether that number is 1.5 million or not I don't know.
    Are there 1.5m jobs for them out there, though?
    Probably not, but we'd save the difference between sickness benefits and unemployment benefits at least and work isn't a zero sum game, if more people are in work there is more economic activity which will create more jobs.
    That's doubtless true in the private sector but if those 1.5 million are public sector busybodys and jobsworths they'd mostly find ways to destroy economic activity rather than creating it.
  • Leon said:

    mercator said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Sandpit, " Because if Alli had instead rented the place out commercially, he’d have got £20k for it. Opportunity cost, as an economist would say. "

    Or, indeed, a strategy gamer.

    I assume it would have stood empty. Cost to Alli, zero.
    Cost to Starmer, £20k in kind.

    If his employer had done that, he’d have been had for the income tax on the £20k.

    One law for politicians, another for the rest of us.

    Again.
    Really? I'm an employer, if I let one of my staff's children study in my flat for a few days, I am treating that as a favour rather than a benefit in kind.
    Which is why Reeves wants to hire a load more tax inspectors.

    Letting someone stay in your spare room for a few days, is very different from letting them stay in a massive penthouse in central London.

    If Starmer didn’t think so, he’d wouldn’t have declared the arrangement.

    To your average tax collector, Starmer’s arrangement as discussed is 100% a BIK.
    Which he declared, as a gift.
    Are you having problems understanding this ?
    Simple, greedy grasping millionaire takes freebies and makes himself open to having to return favours and looks exceedingly dodgy and Tin eared
    Yes quite

    The other story here is what exactly is Lord Ali getting in return for these endless wads of cash/loaned apartments?

    He's worth £200m, apparently. You don't end up worth £200m unless you are pretty ruthless with money and you know how to make it work for you. He is clearly expecting reward for this dosh, it's not because he is "kind"

    Alongside the blustering Labour lies, this is the big story
    https://members.parliament.uk/member/3482/contributions

    12 speeches on the Marriages (Same Sex Couples) Bill, 5 on the Equality Bill, pretty much everything else on LGBT issues in other bills. He is an activist shopping for legislation, or he is a kindly old buffer who likes to help PMs and other Cabinet Ministers live their best lives, with not a thought in the world for any reward. Pick one.

    BTW I approve to strongly approve of the above Bills (now Acts), but that's not the point.
    If any of those loaned apartments/cash donations have been described less-than-accurately by the Labour pols involved (I am not accusing anyone, just hypothesising) then Ali now has tremendous leverage over them

    He can say "well actually that apartment wasn't used for precisely the purpose depicted by Politician X" and then Politician X is finished

    This kind of leverage is wrong and bad. It would be wrong in any government. And all from one man
    Think back to freebie holidays for Blair and, more recently, Boris. Neither man was brought down by them. Even if you are right about troughing, how does it bring Starmer down?
    Firstly, because of the hypocrisy. Secondly, Lord Alli seems to have vastly more hands on influence than any of the people giving free holidays to Blair or Boris.
    The Bamfords who gave freebies (including his wedding) to Boris are the B in JCB. Can you not remember Boris's JCB-themed election stunts?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Leon said:

    mercator said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Sandpit, " Because if Alli had instead rented the place out commercially, he’d have got £20k for it. Opportunity cost, as an economist would say. "

    Or, indeed, a strategy gamer.

    I assume it would have stood empty. Cost to Alli, zero.
    Cost to Starmer, £20k in kind.

    If his employer had done that, he’d have been had for the income tax on the £20k.

    One law for politicians, another for the rest of us.

    Again.
    Really? I'm an employer, if I let one of my staff's children study in my flat for a few days, I am treating that as a favour rather than a benefit in kind.
    Which is why Reeves wants to hire a load more tax inspectors.

    Letting someone stay in your spare room for a few days, is very different from letting them stay in a massive penthouse in central London.

    If Starmer didn’t think so, he’d wouldn’t have declared the arrangement.

    To your average tax collector, Starmer’s arrangement as discussed is 100% a BIK.
    Which he declared, as a gift.
    Are you having problems understanding this ?
    Simple, greedy grasping millionaire takes freebies and makes himself open to having to return favours and looks exceedingly dodgy and Tin eared
    Yes quite

    The other story here is what exactly is Lord Ali getting in return for these endless wads of cash/loaned apartments?

    He's worth £200m, apparently. You don't end up worth £200m unless you are pretty ruthless with money and you know how to make it work for you. He is clearly expecting reward for this dosh, it's not because he is "kind"

    Alongside the blustering Labour lies, this is the big story
    https://members.parliament.uk/member/3482/contributions

    12 speeches on the Marriages (Same Sex Couples) Bill, 5 on the Equality Bill, pretty much everything else on LGBT issues in other bills. He is an activist shopping for legislation, or he is a kindly old buffer who likes to help PMs and other Cabinet Ministers live their best lives, with not a thought in the world for any reward. Pick one.

    BTW I approve to strongly approve of the above Bills (now Acts), but that's not the point.
    If any of those loaned apartments/cash donations have been described less-than-accurately by the Labour pols involved (I am not accusing anyone, just hypothesising) then Ali now has tremendous leverage over them

    He can say "well actually that apartment wasn't used for precisely the purpose depicted by Politician X" and then Politician X is finished

    This kind of leverage is wrong and bad. It would be wrong in any government. And all from one man
    If only there were an enterprising journalist that could get hold of the entry log for the building.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,751

    I gave up my walk at the end of day one

    I walked twenty miles and didn't quite make it to Devizes

    I was very wet and very lost. The rain and wind got worse all day, and my phone couldn't tell me where I was

    It told.me I was in Malmesbury, Chippenham, Marlborough and Amesbury. It never once gave me a location between Avebury and Devizes (where I actually was). I couldn't see more than half a mile ahead of me, so couldn't even navigate by landmarks

    I got helpful directions from a local Caleb when I was quite lost. He told me to cross a meadow, to save about a mile. He was right that it was a shorter distance, but I had to walk through thigh to waist high, wet grass

    I had to stop to rest about every thirty seconds. I finally crossed the meadow after about an hour, and having got wet to my bones

    I carried on and after about another hour and a half's walk down another massive puddle infested farm track, ended up in a lay-by next to a small fast and wet road

    This was when my phone was telling me that I was just outside Chippenham. It was getting dark and I didn't know where I was; even if I'd known I didn't have enough signal to call a taxi to tell it that I didn't know where I was

    I was about to start to sob when a car pulled into the lay-by and the lovely Irish lady driver asked if I needed help

    She drove my very wet arse all the way home, and wouldn't even accept a bit of cash for the fuel

    Normally I'd say - what about the paper map, but yesterday was not a day for paper maps...
    fablon is your friend.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,785
    IanB2 said:

    mercator said:

    viewcode said:

    mercator said:

    Awkward moment in Sweden last time I visited. I had a full English breakfast in the capital and part of it fell in love with me.

    I have an image of a plate of beans sending you a love letter. Please explain
    Stockholm syndrome is a proposed condition or theory that tries to explain why hostages sometimes develop a psychological bond with their captors.[1][2]
    Psst: It’s best to try and disguise cut and pastes from Wikipedia by deleting the bracketed numbers
    Not everybody who uses bracketed numbers derives their text from Wikipedia.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,594
    edited September 25

    I gave up my walk at the end of day one

    I walked twenty miles and didn't quite make it to Devizes

    I was very wet and very lost. The rain and wind got worse all day, and my phone couldn't tell me where I was

    It told.me I was in Malmesbury, Chippenham, Marlborough and Amesbury. It never once gave me a location between Avebury and Devizes (where I actually was). I couldn't see more than half a mile ahead of me, so couldn't even navigate by landmarks

    I got helpful directions from a local Caleb when I was quite lost. He told me to cross a meadow, to save about a mile. He was right that it was a shorter distance, but I had to walk through thigh to waist high, wet grass

    I had to stop to rest about every thirty seconds. I finally crossed the meadow after about an hour, and having got wet to my bones

    I carried on and after about another hour and a half's walk down another massive puddle infested farm track, ended up in a lay-by next to a small fast and wet road

    This was when my phone was telling me that I was just outside Chippenham. It was getting dark and I didn't know where I was; even if I'd known I didn't have enough signal to call a taxi to tell it that I didn't know where I was

    I was about to start to sob when a car pulled into the lay-by and the lovely Irish lady driver asked if I needed help

    She drove my very wet arse all the way home, and wouldn't even accept a bit of cash for the fuel

    Normally I'd say - what about the paper map, but yesterday was not a day for paper maps...
    Ortlieb map case. Awkward, maybe, but we used to use such things before phones. A small one for the phone is a good idea too.

    Weather was terrible though. You can just about survive one day but it is no fun if you have to do the same again tomorrow, so leaving the rest for another day was probably wise.

    Autumn proper seems to have arrived a bit early.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,751

    I gave up my walk at the end of day one

    I walked twenty miles and didn't quite make it to Devizes

    I was very wet and very lost. The rain and wind got worse all day, and my phone couldn't tell me where I was

    It told.me I was in Malmesbury, Chippenham, Marlborough and Amesbury. It never once gave me a location between Avebury and Devizes (where I actually was). I couldn't see more than half a mile ahead of me, so couldn't even navigate by landmarks

    I got helpful directions from a local Caleb when I was quite lost. He told me to cross a meadow, to save about a mile. He was right that it was a shorter distance, but I had to walk through thigh to waist high, wet grass

    I had to stop to rest about every thirty seconds. I finally crossed the meadow after about an hour, and having got wet to my bones

    I carried on and after about another hour and a half's walk down another massive puddle infested farm track, ended up in a lay-by next to a small fast and wet road

    This was when my phone was telling me that I was just outside Chippenham. It was getting dark and I didn't know where I was; even if I'd known I didn't have enough signal to call a taxi to tell it that I didn't know where I was

    I was about to start to sob when a car pulled into the lay-by and the lovely Irish lady driver asked if I needed help

    She drove my very wet arse all the way home, and wouldn't even accept a bit of cash for the fuel

    Great experience you must be buzzing. I hope you rounded the day off with a large whisky with or without your new lady friend.

    Enjoy the rest of your trip. That's a high bar to start with.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 153
    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the expectation of work and work assessments for people on sickness benefits is the first Labour policy I support. The Tories should have done this in 2022. We also need to move to independent work assessments rather than GPs.

    I remember someone at my old workplace worked out it would need ~4.5k centrally contracted doctors to give everyone on sickness benefits one 30 minute work assessment every 90 days but it would also take a significant chunk out of GP appointment schedules freeing up resource for people who are sick and looking to get better rather than people who are chronically sick and won't get better or people who aren't sick and just want to get signed off by scamming and pretending they are.

    There's probably 1.5m people that can be pushed into the lesser unemployment benefits or back into work if this is done right and that will result in a ~£10bn saving at least.

    It's rare we agree on anything but I'm happy to agree with you on this.

    It's difficult and there are undoubtedly genuine cases of people who cannot work because of long-term debilitating or chronic conditions and I've every sympathy for those individuals.

    Mental health is one of those areas where the Coalition did some very good work - stress is a thing, I saw it many times in my working life and people react to it in different ways, some relish it, others don't. Helping those for whom stress is a negative experience get back to work is something all thoughtful employers should be and are about.

    That said, there are unquestionably a number who are playing the system to get sickness benefit in lieu of working for a living and that has to be the target. Whether that number is 1.5 million or not I don't know.
    Are there 1.5m jobs for them out there, though?
    In a past life I had a part in recruiting a lot of close to minimum wage staff. Warehouse picking etc
    Some permanent, some on short term contracts.
    This is a comparatively poor area with low employment.

    The success rate was decidely mixed.
    Some would turn up for interview, with no intention of working. But proof to job centre they were looking.

    A significant minority wanted no more than 3 days a week - after that child support would mean a very high effective tax rate. Its rational not to work a 4th or 5th day if you are coming out with an extra £10 a day.

    Absenteeism was high on a monday.
    Some would be great - absolute diamonds, capable of better, quick to learn and qualify to use a forklift (so paid 50p - £1 an hour more), quickly became team leaders etc

    A lot wanted to be paid weekly - what do you do if you start work on the 23rd of a month but don't get paid until say the 18th of the next month.

    One consistent theme was that if you could get people to turn up for 6 weeks - 3 months, they would by fine.
    High attrition rate in those early weeks.
    Work is a habit and takes time to learn or re-learn.
    Employers could offer more support, we offered pretty little I'm ashamed to say.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,305

    Leon said:

    mercator said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Sandpit, " Because if Alli had instead rented the place out commercially, he’d have got £20k for it. Opportunity cost, as an economist would say. "

    Or, indeed, a strategy gamer.

    I assume it would have stood empty. Cost to Alli, zero.
    Cost to Starmer, £20k in kind.

    If his employer had done that, he’d have been had for the income tax on the £20k.

    One law for politicians, another for the rest of us.

    Again.
    Really? I'm an employer, if I let one of my staff's children study in my flat for a few days, I am treating that as a favour rather than a benefit in kind.
    Which is why Reeves wants to hire a load more tax inspectors.

    Letting someone stay in your spare room for a few days, is very different from letting them stay in a massive penthouse in central London.

    If Starmer didn’t think so, he’d wouldn’t have declared the arrangement.

    To your average tax collector, Starmer’s arrangement as discussed is 100% a BIK.
    Which he declared, as a gift.
    Are you having problems understanding this ?
    Simple, greedy grasping millionaire takes freebies and makes himself open to having to return favours and looks exceedingly dodgy and Tin eared
    Yes quite

    The other story here is what exactly is Lord Ali getting in return for these endless wads of cash/loaned apartments?

    He's worth £200m, apparently. You don't end up worth £200m unless you are pretty ruthless with money and you know how to make it work for you. He is clearly expecting reward for this dosh, it's not because he is "kind"

    Alongside the blustering Labour lies, this is the big story
    https://members.parliament.uk/member/3482/contributions

    12 speeches on the Marriages (Same Sex Couples) Bill, 5 on the Equality Bill, pretty much everything else on LGBT issues in other bills. He is an activist shopping for legislation, or he is a kindly old buffer who likes to help PMs and other Cabinet Ministers live their best lives, with not a thought in the world for any reward. Pick one.

    BTW I approve to strongly approve of the above Bills (now Acts), but that's not the point.
    If any of those loaned apartments/cash donations have been described less-than-accurately by the Labour pols involved (I am not accusing anyone, just hypothesising) then Ali now has tremendous leverage over them

    He can say "well actually that apartment wasn't used for precisely the purpose depicted by Politician X" and then Politician X is finished

    This kind of leverage is wrong and bad. It would be wrong in any government. And all from one man
    Think back to freebie holidays for Blair and, more recently, Boris. Neither man was brought down by them. Even if you are right about troughing, how does it bring Starmer down?
    Firstly, because of the hypocrisy. Secondly, Lord Alli seems to have vastly more hands on influence than any of the people giving free holidays to Blair or Boris.
    The Bamfords who gave freebies (including his wedding) to Boris are the B in JCB. Can you not remember Boris's JCB-themed election stunts?
    That's not influence over policy. Did they choose parliamentary candidates?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,830
    edited September 25
    I caught up with Return Of The Sausages this morning

    I decided to Google 'types of sausage' to help me come up with an original pun

    I got as far as 'types o' and 'f sausage' came up as the suggestion

    That is Keir cut through

    I couldn't come up with an original pun

    Andouille all tried
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    I gave up my walk at the end of day one

    I walked twenty miles and didn't quite make it to Devizes

    I was very wet and very lost. The rain and wind got worse all day, and my phone couldn't tell me where I was

    It told.me I was in Malmesbury, Chippenham, Marlborough and Amesbury. It never once gave me a location between Avebury and Devizes (where I actually was). I couldn't see more than half a mile ahead of me, so couldn't even navigate by landmarks

    I got helpful directions from a local Caleb when I was quite lost. He told me to cross a meadow, to save about a mile. He was right that it was a shorter distance, but I had to walk through thigh to waist high, wet grass

    I had to stop to rest about every thirty seconds. I finally crossed the meadow after about an hour, and having got wet to my bones

    I carried on and after about another hour and a half's walk down another massive puddle infested farm track, ended up in a lay-by next to a small fast and wet road

    This was when my phone was telling me that I was just outside Chippenham. It was getting dark and I didn't know where I was; even if I'd known I didn't have enough signal to call a taxi to tell it that I didn't know where I was

    I was about to start to sob when a car pulled into the lay-by and the lovely Irish lady driver asked if I needed help

    She drove my very wet arse all the way home, and wouldn't even accept a bit of cash for the fuel

    That's a shame. Is that it? Have you abandoned it entirely?

    In terms of great walks in Britain maybe you have to stick to the tried and trusted (and pray for good weather)

    I did three days of the south west coastal path once and it was fabulous. I've heard the Ridgway is pretty good...
  • NEW THREAD

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the expectation of work and work assessments for people on sickness benefits is the first Labour policy I support. The Tories should have done this in 2022. We also need to move to independent work assessments rather than GPs.

    I remember someone at my old workplace worked out it would need ~4.5k centrally contracted doctors to give everyone on sickness benefits one 30 minute work assessment every 90 days but it would also take a significant chunk out of GP appointment schedules freeing up resource for people who are sick and looking to get better rather than people who are chronically sick and won't get better or people who aren't sick and just want to get signed off by scamming and pretending they are.

    There's probably 1.5m people that can be pushed into the lesser unemployment benefits or back into work if this is done right and that will result in a ~£10bn saving at least.

    It's rare we agree on anything but I'm happy to agree with you on this.

    It's difficult and there are undoubtedly genuine cases of people who cannot work because of long-term debilitating or chronic conditions and I've every sympathy for those individuals.

    Mental health is one of those areas where the Coalition did some very good work - stress is a thing, I saw it many times in my working life and people react to it in different ways, some relish it, others don't. Helping those for whom stress is a negative experience get back to work is something all thoughtful employers should be and are about.

    That said, there are unquestionably a number who are playing the system to get sickness benefit in lieu of working for a living and that has to be the target. Whether that number is 1.5 million or not I don't know.
    Are there 1.5m jobs for them out there, though?
    This is where the paradox lies and it was interesting to hear some discussion about this on LBC this morning. Is there a pool of labour out there? Some say yes, some say no. Does that align to the jobs which need filling? That's the other question. An employer rang in and was tearing his hair out over people not turning up to interviews even when invited and there seems an extraordinary high percentage of new workers who quit their jobs on the first day.

    As I said here before, if you have 100 people apply for 20 jobs you have an unemployment problem, if you have 40 people apply for 20 jobs you have close to full employment, if you have 10 people apply for 20 jobs you have an under-employment problem. In some parts of the economy, we have an under-employment problem - it may well be the pool of specialist skilled labour which once existed does so no longer.

    What you have internally is a core of the unemployable - people who can't work or don't want to work for whatever reason (genuine or otherwise). Getting them into work is a struggle - plugging the gaps in areas of specialist work is much more difficult. How do you create the skilled labour force you need? Two ways - either train them (which takes them but would be an economically beneficial thing if done right) or import them....
    Certainly in the white collar world the employment market is tighter than I've seen it since the GFC. I'm talking 100 applicants to every job. My LinkedIn is full of posts of people who've been out of work for over a year. That's anecdata, but the FT is saying the same thing - https://www.ft.com/content/1429fcb2-e0ef-4e47-b2b8-8bd225ac2fe2 (and the comments section full of similar stories).

    I'm assuming most of the people on long term sick leave aren't competing for well paid middle class knowledge jobs, though. So what you actually get by shunting 1.5m low skilled workers into the workforce is problematic, as you can't lower the wage for unskilled work below the minimum wage. So, as you say, you need to upskill people. Else you just have mass unemployment. Which means spending money on training the 1.5m to be plumbers or programmers or whatever else is needed.

    I'm in total agreement that many of the 1.5m on long term sickness benefits should be working. I'm just not sure the jobs are out there, though.
    What is very obvious from my retired rural perch is that two inconsistent arguments are used about employment.

    For bankers, city types, and all sorts of quite well paid people, the rule is that, even if there are loads of applicants, you have to pay £n squillions because that's the law of supply and demand and all that.

    However, it seems to me that the massive numbers of vacancies quite remarkably occur in places far away from derivative trading offices (whatever they are) in Mayfair.

    In low paid jobs that are not all that nice to do different laws seem to apply. The rate for the job (minimum wage) is what there is and thats's tough. Fill them by getting people off the sick and into these jobs or importing them from poor places. Magically different laws of economics apply.

    We could always be radical and apply supply and demand as much to picking and cutting leeks as being CE of a FTSE 100 company?

    Round here there is no great problem filling OK but routine jobs that are not very highly paid but are not nasty/cold/horrible. Of which there are a lot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the expectation of work and work assessments for people on sickness benefits is the first Labour policy I support. The Tories should have done this in 2022. We also need to move to independent work assessments rather than GPs.

    I remember someone at my old workplace worked out it would need ~4.5k centrally contracted doctors to give everyone on sickness benefits one 30 minute work assessment every 90 days but it would also take a significant chunk out of GP appointment schedules freeing up resource for people who are sick and looking to get better rather than people who are chronically sick and won't get better or people who aren't sick and just want to get signed off by scamming and pretending they are.

    There's probably 1.5m people that can be pushed into the lesser unemployment benefits or back into work if this is done right and that will result in a ~£10bn saving at least.

    Push back into work? How do you make employers employ sick people?
    By offering them flexibility on the employee’s terms.

    There’s loads of jobs that can now be done remotely online, and aren’t massively time-sensitive.

    Eg. Call centre workers on phones, emails, chat services etc, should be able to log in when they can and be paid for the hours they work. Most of these services always have a queue, so every extra man-hour they can get makes that queue shorter.
  • Leon said:

    I gave up my walk at the end of day one

    I walked twenty miles and didn't quite make it to Devizes

    I was very wet and very lost. The rain and wind got worse all day, and my phone couldn't tell me where I was

    It told.me I was in Malmesbury, Chippenham, Marlborough and Amesbury. It never once gave me a location between Avebury and Devizes (where I actually was). I couldn't see more than half a mile ahead of me, so couldn't even navigate by landmarks

    I got helpful directions from a local Caleb when I was quite lost. He told me to cross a meadow, to save about a mile. He was right that it was a shorter distance, but I had to walk through thigh to waist high, wet grass

    I had to stop to rest about every thirty seconds. I finally crossed the meadow after about an hour, and having got wet to my bones

    I carried on and after about another hour and a half's walk down another massive puddle infested farm track, ended up in a lay-by next to a small fast and wet road

    This was when my phone was telling me that I was just outside Chippenham. It was getting dark and I didn't know where I was; even if I'd known I didn't have enough signal to call a taxi to tell it that I didn't know where I was

    I was about to start to sob when a car pulled into the lay-by and the lovely Irish lady driver asked if I needed help

    She drove my very wet arse all the way home, and wouldn't even accept a bit of cash for the fuel

    That's a shame. Is that it? Have you abandoned it entirely?

    In terms of great walks in Britain maybe you have to stick to the tried and trusted (and pray for good weather)

    I did three days of the south west coastal path once and it was fabulous. I've heard the Ridgway is pretty good...
    I've given up my original plan, and haven't decided what to do instead

    I'm considering doing the walk to the south coast (which is what really matters, to join home to my Brittany walk) in more manageable chunks

    Last year I walked to my mate's place a few miles north of Amesbury. I might walk from there to Salisbury in a day, then think about the next leg

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited September 25

    Leon said:

    I gave up my walk at the end of day one

    I walked twenty miles and didn't quite make it to Devizes

    I was very wet and very lost. The rain and wind got worse all day, and my phone couldn't tell me where I was

    It told.me I was in Malmesbury, Chippenham, Marlborough and Amesbury. It never once gave me a location between Avebury and Devizes (where I actually was). I couldn't see more than half a mile ahead of me, so couldn't even navigate by landmarks

    I got helpful directions from a local Caleb when I was quite lost. He told me to cross a meadow, to save about a mile. He was right that it was a shorter distance, but I had to walk through thigh to waist high, wet grass

    I had to stop to rest about every thirty seconds. I finally crossed the meadow after about an hour, and having got wet to my bones

    I carried on and after about another hour and a half's walk down another massive puddle infested farm track, ended up in a lay-by next to a small fast and wet road

    This was when my phone was telling me that I was just outside Chippenham. It was getting dark and I didn't know where I was; even if I'd known I didn't have enough signal to call a taxi to tell it that I didn't know where I was

    I was about to start to sob when a car pulled into the lay-by and the lovely Irish lady driver asked if I needed help

    She drove my very wet arse all the way home, and wouldn't even accept a bit of cash for the fuel

    That's a shame. Is that it? Have you abandoned it entirely?

    In terms of great walks in Britain maybe you have to stick to the tried and trusted (and pray for good weather)

    I did three days of the south west coastal path once and it was fabulous. I've heard the Ridgway is pretty good...
    I've given up my original plan, and haven't decided what to do instead

    I'm considering doing the walk to the south coast (which is what really matters, to join home to my Brittany walk) in more manageable chunks

    Last year I walked to my mate's place a few miles north of Amesbury. I might walk from there to Salisbury in a day, then think about the next leg

    Best of luck whatever you do, it does appear that UK autumn has arrived a little early this year. Salisbury’s nice, and has a lot of train connections if you want to relocate yourself.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    kenObi said:

    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the expectation of work and work assessments for people on sickness benefits is the first Labour policy I support. The Tories should have done this in 2022. We also need to move to independent work assessments rather than GPs.

    I remember someone at my old workplace worked out it would need ~4.5k centrally contracted doctors to give everyone on sickness benefits one 30 minute work assessment every 90 days but it would also take a significant chunk out of GP appointment schedules freeing up resource for people who are sick and looking to get better rather than people who are chronically sick and won't get better or people who aren't sick and just want to get signed off by scamming and pretending they are.

    There's probably 1.5m people that can be pushed into the lesser unemployment benefits or back into work if this is done right and that will result in a ~£10bn saving at least.

    It's rare we agree on anything but I'm happy to agree with you on this.

    It's difficult and there are undoubtedly genuine cases of people who cannot work because of long-term debilitating or chronic conditions and I've every sympathy for those individuals.

    Mental health is one of those areas where the Coalition did some very good work - stress is a thing, I saw it many times in my working life and people react to it in different ways, some relish it, others don't. Helping those for whom stress is a negative experience get back to work is something all thoughtful employers should be and are about.

    That said, there are unquestionably a number who are playing the system to get sickness benefit in lieu of working for a living and that has to be the target. Whether that number is 1.5 million or not I don't know.
    Are there 1.5m jobs for them out there, though?
    In a past life I had a part in recruiting a lot of close to minimum wage staff. Warehouse picking etc
    Some permanent, some on short term contracts.
    This is a comparatively poor area with low employment.

    The success rate was decidely mixed.
    Some would turn up for interview, with no intention of working. But proof to job centre they were looking.

    A significant minority wanted no more than 3 days a week - after that child support would mean a very high effective tax rate. Its rational not to work a 4th or 5th day if you are coming out with an extra £10 a day.

    Absenteeism was high on a monday.
    Some would be great - absolute diamonds, capable of better, quick to learn and qualify to use a forklift (so paid 50p - £1 an hour more), quickly became team leaders etc

    A lot wanted to be paid weekly - what do you do if you start work on the 23rd of a month but don't get paid until say the 18th of the next month.

    One consistent theme was that if you could get people to turn up for 6 weeks - 3 months, they would by fine.
    High attrition rate in those early weeks.
    Work is a habit and takes time to learn or re-learn.
    Employers could offer more support, we offered pretty little I'm ashamed to say.
    Fantastic post. A lot of this is usually conveyed by anecdote (a friend tried to hire....) rather than actual experience.

    PB isn't the best place to find insights into the world of the low paid, manual workforce so this is super useful. Thx.
    Greensill (of blessed memory) had a payroll product where companies could pay their workforce on any schedule the employee chose, even daily. Greensill would advance the money as required and collect it from the employer at the end of the month.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Leon said:

    I gave up my walk at the end of day one

    I walked twenty miles and didn't quite make it to Devizes

    I was very wet and very lost. The rain and wind got worse all day, and my phone couldn't tell me where I was

    It told.me I was in Malmesbury, Chippenham, Marlborough and Amesbury. It never once gave me a location between Avebury and Devizes (where I actually was). I couldn't see more than half a mile ahead of me, so couldn't even navigate by landmarks

    I got helpful directions from a local Caleb when I was quite lost. He told me to cross a meadow, to save about a mile. He was right that it was a shorter distance, but I had to walk through thigh to waist high, wet grass

    I had to stop to rest about every thirty seconds. I finally crossed the meadow after about an hour, and having got wet to my bones

    I carried on and after about another hour and a half's walk down another massive puddle infested farm track, ended up in a lay-by next to a small fast and wet road

    This was when my phone was telling me that I was just outside Chippenham. It was getting dark and I didn't know where I was; even if I'd known I didn't have enough signal to call a taxi to tell it that I didn't know where I was

    I was about to start to sob when a car pulled into the lay-by and the lovely Irish lady driver asked if I needed help

    She drove my very wet arse all the way home, and wouldn't even accept a bit of cash for the fuel

    That's a shame. Is that it? Have you abandoned it entirely?

    In terms of great walks in Britain maybe you have to stick to the tried and trusted (and pray for good weather)

    I did three days of the south west coastal path once and it was fabulous. I've heard the Ridgway is pretty good...
    I've given up my original plan, and haven't decided what to do instead

    I'm considering doing the walk to the south coast (which is what really matters, to join home to my Brittany walk) in more manageable chunks

    Last year I walked to my mate's place a few miles north of Amesbury. I might walk from there to Salisbury in a day, then think about the next leg

    When I did the Wessex Ridgeway more than a decade ago, I did the first half in day circular walks, then the second half to Lyme Regis in a three-day backpack. I remember it all fondly.

    Day walks can be very good to see more of an area.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,283
    edited September 25
    kenObi said:

    Leon said:

    The £20k is also significant

    This is the first of the “Ali cash” where the explanation offered is itself highly dubious. Free glasses, offices, dresses, arsenal boxes, taylor swift tix - they all make sense even if they are objectionable. We can SEE the designer specs

    £20k for a quiet place to study for GCSEs where the dates don’t fit at all??

    That sounds like a total lie. And if it can be proved that it is a lie then Starmer would have to resign

    Amount of donation or nature and value if donation in kind: Accommodation, value £20,437.28
    Date received: 29 May 2024 to 13 July 2024

    Dates seem to span GCSE exams.

    Anything else Sherlock ?
    The GCSE exams were over by the end of June.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    TimS said:

    Most important story of the day: OECD boosts Rachel Reeves with call to rewrite ‘short-termist’ fiscal rules

    https://www.ft.com/content/9ed9df4c-1c67-41d9-98a6-6e7c84de8429

    ££ but the long and short of it is the OECD chief economist is saying the current fiscal rules are bad news for investment and need an overhaul. This occurring as Reeves prepares the ground for a reform that will distinguish between current and investment spending.

    This *could* be very good long term news for the economy if done properly. We are badly in need of investment across the entire economy: in the public sector, in the private sector, and in that huge bit of the Venn diagram that is the private sector supported or regulated by the public sector.

    We are a nation of asset-sweaters and accountants, not capex investors. Reforming the fiscal rules won't be enough, and it could go wrong, but it's a start.

    "I have taken representations from the OECD, and I have heard those representations.
    How much did that cost them?

    Ching ching!

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    This £20k is deeply mysterious. Just doesn’t add up

    I wonder if @Luckyguy1983 is onto something

    Hardly - but the £20,000 does make sense.

    It's the market rate for renting out the property and with the election called at 2 days notice in the middle of exam times I don't think SKS had many other options...
    Not if the property is really worth the £18m that someone posted on here (which surprised me)

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    The £20k is also significant

    This is the first of the “Ali cash” where the explanation offered is itself highly dubious. Free glasses, offices, dresses, arsenal boxes, taylor swift tix - they all make sense even if they are objectionable. We can SEE the designer specs

    £20k for a quiet place to study for GCSEs where the dates don’t fit at all??

    That sounds like a total lie. And if it can be proved that it is a lie then Starmer would have to resign

    To be fair, in isolation, it’s not that big a deal - Starmer wanted his son shielded from the press and noise and hullabaloo around the election to concentrate on exams.

    If there hadn’t been the clothes freebies and just the football tickets then people would probably sympathise.

    The problem is that it’s on top of all the freebies, paid for parties etc and crucially all by the same person.

    What he should have probably done is to have asked a nearby boarding school to take his son in for the period. I’m sure he’s got loads of friendly boarding schools willing to help him.
    😂😂
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    edited September 25

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    This £20k is deeply mysterious. Just doesn’t add up

    I wonder if @Luckyguy1983 is onto something

    Hardly - but the £20,000 does make sense.

    It's the market rate for renting out the property and with the election called at 2 days notice in the middle of exam times I don't think SKS had many other options...
    Not if the property is really worth the £18m that someone posted on here (which surprised me)

    The value is not that far off afaics, very much depending on the exact property details / status.

    It is claimed to be a ~500sqm penthouse. *

    Here's a 210sqm ish penthouse at Centre Point at £8m.
    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/131727791#/?channel=RES_BUY

    Rental on an £18m property would be .. um .. at 2% yield, which might be ambitious, £360k per annum or £30k per month. £20k for 6 weeks is a push, but just about on the edge of the justifiable if all the variances line up.

    Does anyone have a £10 million pad in Central London that they rent out? If so, are they telling?

    * https://order-order.com/2024/09/25/inside-the-luxury-study-pad-starmer-took-as-freebie-for-sons-gcses/

    Remember that Guido plays games, so he may have included the roof terraces or similar.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    MaxPB said:

    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the expectation of work and work assessments for people on sickness benefits is the first Labour policy I support. The Tories should have done this in 2022. We also need to move to independent work assessments rather than GPs.

    I remember someone at my old workplace worked out it would need ~4.5k centrally contracted doctors to give everyone on sickness benefits one 30 minute work assessment every 90 days but it would also take a significant chunk out of GP appointment schedules freeing up resource for people who are sick and looking to get better rather than people who are chronically sick and won't get better or people who aren't sick and just want to get signed off by scamming and pretending they are.

    There's probably 1.5m people that can be pushed into the lesser unemployment benefits or back into work if this is done right and that will result in a ~£10bn saving at least.

    It's rare we agree on anything but I'm happy to agree with you on this.

    It's difficult and there are undoubtedly genuine cases of people who cannot work because of long-term debilitating or chronic conditions and I've every sympathy for those individuals.

    Mental health is one of those areas where the Coalition did some very good work - stress is a thing, I saw it many times in my working life and people react to it in different ways, some relish it, others don't. Helping those for whom stress is a negative experience get back to work is something all thoughtful employers should be and are about.

    That said, there are unquestionably a number who are playing the system to get sickness benefit in lieu of working for a living and that has to be the target. Whether that number is 1.5 million or not I don't know.
    Are there 1.5m jobs for them out there, though?
    Probably not, but we'd save the difference between sickness benefits and unemployment benefits at least and work isn't a zero sum game, if more people are in work there is more economic activity which will create more jobs.
    Also if working they would pay tax and ni
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the expectation of work and work assessments for people on sickness benefits is the first Labour policy I support. The Tories should have done this in 2022. We also need to move to independent work assessments rather than GPs.

    I remember someone at my old workplace worked out it would need ~4.5k centrally contracted doctors to give everyone on sickness benefits one 30 minute work assessment every 90 days but it would also take a significant chunk out of GP appointment schedules freeing up resource for people who are sick and looking to get better rather than people who are chronically sick and won't get better or people who aren't sick and just want to get signed off by scamming and pretending they are.

    There's probably 1.5m people that can be pushed into the lesser unemployment benefits or back into work if this is done right and that will result in a ~£10bn saving at least.

    It's rare we agree on anything but I'm happy to agree with you on this.

    It's difficult and there are undoubtedly genuine cases of people who cannot work because of long-term debilitating or chronic conditions and I've every sympathy for those individuals.

    Mental health is one of those areas where the Coalition did some very good work - stress is a thing, I saw it many times in my working life and people react to it in different ways, some relish it, others don't. Helping those for whom stress is a negative experience get back to work is something all thoughtful employers should be and are about.

    That said, there are unquestionably a number who are playing the system to get sickness benefit in lieu of working for a living and that has to be the target. Whether that number is 1.5 million or not I don't know.
    Are there 1.5m jobs for them out there, though?
    This is where the paradox lies and it was interesting to hear some discussion about this on LBC this morning. Is there a pool of labour out there? Some say yes, some say no. Does that align to the jobs which need filling? That's the other question. An employer rang in and was tearing his hair out over people not turning up to interviews even when invited and there seems an extraordinary high percentage of new workers who quit their jobs on the first day.

    As I said here before, if you have 100 people apply for 20 jobs you have an unemployment problem, if you have 40 people apply for 20 jobs you have close to full employment, if you have 10 people apply for 20 jobs you have an under-employment problem. In some parts of the economy, we have an under-employment problem - it may well be the pool of specialist skilled labour which once existed does so no longer.

    What you have internally is a core of the unemployable - people who can't work or don't want to work for whatever reason (genuine or otherwise). Getting them into work is a struggle - plugging the gaps in areas of specialist work is much more difficult. How do you create the skilled labour force you need? Two ways - either train them (which takes them but would be an economically beneficial thing if done right) or import them....
    Certainly in the white collar world the employment market is tighter than I've seen it since the GFC. I'm talking 100 applicants to every job. My LinkedIn is full of posts of people who've been out of work for over a year. That's anecdata, but the FT is saying the same thing - https://www.ft.com/content/1429fcb2-e0ef-4e47-b2b8-8bd225ac2fe2 (and the comments section full of similar stories).

    I'm assuming most of the people on long term sick leave aren't competing for well paid middle class knowledge jobs, though. So what you actually get by shunting 1.5m low skilled workers into the workforce is problematic, as you can't lower the wage for unskilled work below the minimum wage. So, as you say, you need to upskill people. Else you just have mass unemployment. Which means spending money on training the 1.5m to be plumbers or programmers or whatever else is needed.

    I'm in total agreement that many of the 1.5m on long term sickness benefits should be working. I'm just not sure the jobs are out there, though.
    Many will get far more on dole rather than working. Rent paid, council tax paid and a tax free wedge on top with likely lots of other things, especially if a few children
This discussion has been closed.