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Love’s Labour’s Lost – politicalbetting.com
Love’s Labour’s Lost – politicalbetting.com
Labour and Keir Starmer's favourability ratings have fallen to a new post-election lowKeir StarmerFavourable: 30% (-14 from 8 Jul)Unfavourable: 60% (+13)Labour partyFavourable: 32% (-15)Unfavourable: 59% (+13)https://t.co/NxrjsKJPYR pic.twitter.com/XH8yDNWorN
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk
Now I look more like an idiot than normal.
Edit: And now it's back: thanks @TSE
The sad reality is for the pollsters is that political polling is less than one per cent of their turnover but it is the one they are judged on.
I do know of one pollster who is genuinely thinking about pulling out of the political polling market given how few media organisations are willing to pay for polls now.
If you think about it, out of the last five general elections the polling industry has only got one election spot on.
We will be getting an Ipsos poll this week though.
Labour lead at 12pts
Westminster voting intention
LAB: 33% (-1)
CON: 21% (-3)
REF: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 13% (-)
GRN: 7% (-)
via @techneUK, 19 Sep
https://x.com/britainelects/status/1838597568508383391
This matches the mood out in the real world - I’ve had jokes from non-political people about Starmer & Labour in the way that happened under the previous government.
They are very Mori-sh.
"Love Labour's lost" or "Labour's love lost" make more sense to me.
Or is the first apostrophe of the grocer variety?
!!!
I think this polling is fairly accurate and does tell a story of a poor start by Starmer and labour
The two issues to really cut through are the WFA (as we will see today as the unions debate their motion to reinstate it) and the freebies
You cannot get a worse optic then taking away pensioners WFA and the largesse of clothes, glasses, holidays, football and concert tickets showered by donors on the top labour team
I genuinely think this will not go away over the period of this parliament. but of course the next GE is 5 years away so anything could happen by then
I would just gently suggest to @Roger and @Anabobazina that trying to close down discussion on this forum because they are clearly dismayed is simply silly and maybe a 'cup of tea and a rich tea biscuit' would help
For those that don’t know. Dolly Draper and Damian McBride, while working at No.10, we’re planning to setup a website pushing deliberately fake stories about opponents of Labour. Not just the Conservatives - they were going after Lib Dems as well.
The story leaked because the two were incompetent. Before they had actually done anything.
If they had gone ahead, the legal exposure would have been incredible. Knowing making up and publishing malicious stories about people is an extra special kind of libel in the British courts. The damages would have wiped the Labour Party out, financially, if found to be corporately involved.
In addition, we’d have had the PM swing called to the witness box to state that he had no idea that McBride (personal political hit man to the PM) and Draper were acting without his knowledge. While sitting writhing feet of him at No. 10
So Guido revealing this before it went live saved the Labour Party from an utter disaster.
Given the demographic, there was actually some support for the changes to WFP eligibility. And genuine admiration for way the far-right violence was crushed. No one mentioned the freebies stuff - this is definitely a PB/Telegraph bubble thing, particularly given the rank hypocrisy of the Tories making a fuss about it.
It was the lack of progress on anything else (waves vaguely) that has pissed people off.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/apr/15/derek-draper-mcbride-smear-emails-redrag
Right from the heart of Brown's (and Labour's) No. 10 operation.
And of the two that don't, one (the prisoner release) is a consequence of the previous government not building prisons. Rishi just called the election before that bomb went off.
And the other is means-testing WFA, which remains repulsive but right.
Oddly enough, the perception of it being crushed has been cultivated by the Right wing media who made such a fuss about "two-tier" policing. The rest of the country watched these thugs getting locked up with a great deal of satisfaction.
It was one of the events that made me delurk onto PB all those years ago. So you might say it had negative consequences in many ways...
Some real progress on the things that matter to voters is needed in order to change the narrative. Not easy when my local health economy is forecasting a £120 million overspend across all Trusts and commissioners. This would extrapolate to about £6 billion nationally.
I note this hasn't had much discussion on here, because it's potentially "good" for Trump.
Their methodology is flawed, they use all voters rather than registered voters.
It’s why their polls were such outliers in 2020.
Instead, as you say, the x is freebie freebie freebie. If they not grow up and start doing serious politics then this will absolutely fade into nothing - with a few exception there is always a bigger scandal down the road.
As for the PB Tory vs PB non-Tory thing, surely there is a balance to strike? Labour's performance has been laughable, pitiful, comedic. But despite all that it's still better than the performance of SunakTrussJohnson. As this morning's poll shows. And however bad Labour have been recently we know the Tories about say Hold My Beer and have the Parade of Losers at their conference where we find out whether Who? Because-its-a-Shithole, BadEnoch or JENRICK is the crowd favourite.
Jenrick would be MEGA - for every other party. And yet he seems to be the firm favourite. Are Tories really that stupid? To vote for that?
For some reason your posts make me want to defend Labour.
Which is what New Labour definitely had.
I can’t see why they didn’t tell the OBR to work double shifts and get the budget out earlier. If, indeed, that is the blocker.
That Gallup piece is saying much the same thing.
So no big deal.
You need to let go the idea that there's some conspiracy of silence on PB.
44th on 538's pollster rating list.
There are three opportunities that Starmer has, which he may or may not take up.
Key one is that Starmer is a relatively fast learner, in a way that few of his predecessors have been. Possibly going back to Thatch.
The other is that the disjointed nature of the political summer has get in the way of developing a theme. The spending review is the key canvas and that's still a month off. It will look better once real stuff is happening.
Finally, most people love a comeback story. He won't convince the "I know he will be awful" types, but he doesn't need them.
Now, he may fail to take any of those opportunities. But it's much, much, much too early to tell.
Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts told university colleagues he killed a neighbor's dog with a shovel
https://x.com/_cingraham/status/1838571477618274475
The Green Party - totally undeserved in my view given their nonsensical policy mix of crank student lefty and eco-NIMBY - are going to be big winners in the next few council election rounds. Possibly parliamentary byelections too, if the opportunity arises.
2024: Things are in a bad way but Labour has a plan for fixing it.
2029: The government inherited a mess but is fixing it. Don't stop now.
The big risk for the government now is people think it is a mess but Labour aren't doing anything different from their predecessors.
I actually think this is incorrect, or it is too early to say, but it is what people appear to think.
The three things that have created all the noise don't matter, except in the context of this belief: WFA-gate, Freebie-gate and Sue-Gray-gate
Rishi's snap election also caught out Tony Blair, whose new book On Leadership was probably intended as a roadmap for Keir Starmer.
The vast majority of Americans, with the exception of the upper class top 10%, are a long way from feeling better off than they were four years ago.
Fact.
If things don't change, we could easily go into the next election with Labour, Conservative, Lib Dems, Greens and Reform on similar national percentages. With regional variations and FPTP, the betting opportunities....
Somewhere there is a toolmaker turning in his grave that his son who banged on about not being able to afford to pay the phone bill and talked about sacrifices couldn’t sacrifice a few years of going to watch the football.
What would he think of his “boy”.
He also said he needed someone to buy him clothes as leader of opposition as he was so focussed on getting to win the election however he won’t need to be bought clothes now he is PM.
So, even if it was a time saving issue he could still have given a staffer his credit card surely?
And if he was too busy as LotO does he not think maybe he might be busier as PM?
Maybe I just don’t understand his TOP LAWYER genius arguments.
They'd only need to be in power for 6 months to do permanent damage. And I'd rate it as a 20% shot over that timeframe, at present.
Posters who post stuff supporting Trumps views get challenged, perhaps trash talkeed but not bullied. Same as anyone posting marxist or Putinist stuff get challenged and perhaps trash talked.
Its what happens on a debating forum.
EDIT: LibDems at 100/1, Greens at 500/1, Reform UK only at 7/1 though.
*Kinnock and Smith. While not winners, they did much of the spade work for Blair, and went through a similar uphill struggle to move the party and Shadow cabinet to what they wanted.
I don't think Starmer is especially bad. I don't think he seems to be especially good, either, though. He managed the politics of the Labour Party well enough - experience there.
But when it comes to being in government... The Sue Gray issue is the biggest problem I see. Seems to be a pound shop Campbell or an actual Dominic Cummings, after the hype.
Starmer's favourable rating now below that of the Labour party as a whole is also not good for him
Longshoreman strike looks nailed on for October. Slated to disrupt supply chains and be not great for incumbents
However polls also showed had she been nominee and Trump gone third party that handed the election back to the Democrats again
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election
The fact Trump (and his age / baggage) is their candidate is the only reason this election is close because based on the economy the Democrats should lose..
Cleverly. In fact I think Farage fears Jenrick even more than
Badenoch. Jenrick with white
working class parents from
the Midlands unlike him and
taking a hard line on
immigration designed to
appeal to ex Tory Reform
voters.
It is Starmer and Davey who
want Jenrick not Tugendhat or Cleverly. So you are right for them but not for Farage
I like you, Casino, but you need to learn to take it, alongside dishing it out, as you do on a regular basis
Wikipedia is kind to them... The policies included, essentially, surrender in the Cold War.
This was why the Labour Party split, fundamentally.
It took them until 1997 - 17 years - to rebuild to electability.
https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1838730690344403449
The war turned what was a flip of the coin into a certainty. And had Thatcher actually lost the Falklands, she'd have lost the election.
It's the economy, stupid
But aside from that, I think you are right. There are no obviously good answers for any big party in multiparty politics.
Also it is hard to believe he will be as leaden in his approach to government from now on as he has been in the first three months.
I always said that if Boris Johnson had to tell his appointees not to piss on the table then he was making the wrong appointments. It is just the same that if Keir Starmer's appointees have to be told not to lap up freebies like a cat drinking milk then he too is making the wrong appointments. If he thinks it is OK to accept free clothes, glasses, days out at ghastly events, then he needs to spend more time looking into a mirror.
Something to watch out for, as there are quite a few by-elections coming up.
The answer of course is for Anabob, Roger and myself to vacate the premises, a journey many already seem to have silently trod before.
Just fantasy economics.
Governments get opposed. I get that it is harder for Labour supporters - they spend more time as the "moral opposition" - but it is how it rolls.