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A basket of unfavourables – politicalbetting.com
A basket of unfavourables – politicalbetting.com
Earlier on this week I said I was expecting Donald Trump to win the electoral college then somebody who I respect when it comes to polling and politics told me I was epically wrong. They told me to remember one of Mike Smithson’s adages that close to an election the net favourability scores are often a better predictor of election outcomes than standard voting intentions.
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Someone really doesn't like Sue Gray within the Labour ranks.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/keir-starmer-accused-of-handing-gold-plated-pension-to-sue-gray-as-pensioners-brace-for-winter-fuel-cut/ar-AA1qPZtO?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=91b32126d6284f38a6b4b8ed347996a8&ei=12
Which is annoying, in fact, as any of the bastards involved should have been fired on the spot.
But acceding to strikers demands doesn't make fewer strikes. It shows that strikes work and brings them back for more.
While it might be true that some of the strikers have had below inflation pay increases, that's true of everyone. It's bot obvious why private sector workers should accept higher taxes so public sector workers can have higher pay increases than them. Inflation isn't the right comparator: the comparator should be what the given worker might earn by changing jobs.
Democrats have got on board with Harris, they have accepted her, are excited by the prospect of her winning, and seem to have lined up behind her as a way to stop Trump.
Trump meanwhile, whilst hugely well-liked by the MAGA die-hards, feels a little diminished and spent at the moment.
The candidate who gets their voters to the polls more successfully will win the election. It’s why I think, right now, Harris will edge it. Still very close though.
I was saying months ago I could not work out why she was so unpopular as she seemed reasonable enough to me.
I guess it is a case the more people see her the more they like her, or don't dislike her.
I suspect the Sundays will have a spread of troughing stories.
Sky got the bit between their teeth yesterday and had an exposure of "gifts". Starmer was top dog but the surprise to me was Lucy Powell who got through£40k and claimed the number 2 spot.
This reminds me a bit of MPs expenses and I suspect it will run. And before the Tories and LDs get too full of glee the expenses story dragged everyone in to the spotlight.
It is correct what a lot of people are saying on here - if voters start to feel improvements in the next 2-3 years then it gives Labour a potential trump card for the next GE, no matter their early stumbles. But that’s not a given, and it would have been far better for Labour to have an assured first few months in office rather than what they have had.
But the polling is her personal favourability ratings and those have improved as people have seen more of her.
However, as Mercator keeps correctly pointing out Trump leads on the Economy and Migration with voters. Whether this is enough to have an impact remains to be seen.
I usually punt money on the US Election. Did well last time out. I am not touching this one with a bargepole.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/19/politics/trump-jewish-voters-antisemitism-event/index.html
And still drunk, to judge by their output.
So I don't see that as invalidating the hypothesis.
https://www.incomesdataresearch.co.uk/resources/insights/average-weekly-earnings
But she doesn't Neil to us.
*Anyone else remember that infamous exchange?
https://youtu.be/FRXzSo_mpX8
https://ifs.org.uk/publications/recent-trends-public-sector-pay
It’s because it gave a perceived idea of partiality and, as “the civil servant that took down Boris” (even if that is a bit overplayed) she was a known public figure. Far better to have a chief of staff in the shadows, managing things behind the scenes rather than being the story.
Gray always had the potential to become the story. This is now playing out in full. I would be surprised if she makes the next election in the role, again not because of anything she has or hasn’t done, but likely because the weight of scrutiny will become unsustainable.
How long did it take PM Maggie to find her feet?
These rights don't come for free. They cost the tax payer money. So the total cost of employing that person is higher than the private sector equivalent.
Of course that same media, especially the broadcasters, earn get paid a lot more than the politicians they cover.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1836924160854925765
TBF, it's hardly worse than everything they already knew about him.
Though the story going round this morning is that CNN was briefed by GOP staff who were trying to get Robinson to stand down before last night's ballot deadline.
Haley, who had higher favourables than Trump, would probably have won
How realistic is it to reduce national debt by continuing to borrow well over £100bn per annum (and not falling) and not paying anything back?
Is this government going to stick to the bogus formula target of 'National net debt reducing as a % of GDP in the fifth year from now', with 'now' moving forward by 1 year every 12 months so never being reached?
This is not sustainable.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/20/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-retail-sales-borrowing/
It’s lazy nonsense to argue that public sector pay can forever keep falling further and further behind private sector because the pensions are better.
Here in the private we dont see it that way.
But the way this government has started suggests to me that she has not been entirely successful in this objective. She also created a lot of enemies during Partygate which is clearly having consequences for her own effectiveness. This has the feel of a Dominic Cumming experiment to me and I don't see it lasting too long.
But I wouldn't be the idiot in Hizbollah who placed the contract with what turned out to be a front organisation for Mossad for all the tea in China.
Even the US is discovering this, as the Bidenomics of printing trillions has led to the Chinese and Saudis starting to agree to price oil in yuan.
Maddeningly, they don't seem to have the equivalent graph for the private sector.
Public sector workers, at least the well-paid ones, get all sorts of shit I don't get. Company cars, bonuses, health insurance, salary sacrifice schemes.
Many public sector workers have had their earning power degraded over a number of years, due to a government believing you can run a country without paying its employees a competitive wage. This is clearly bollicks.
So I will believe the official figures rather than your fantasy
So I would believe
Trump tells a Jewish group the Jews will be to blame if he loses: "I will put it to you very simply and gently: I really haven't been treated right, but you haven't been treated right because you're putting yourself in great danger."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1836917356955602961
People who never get thought about when we talk of 'public sector' because we all think of posh idiot fat cats like Case. But who nevertheless make up the great bulk of services we actually use.
It's a bit like private schools. Most people think 'Eton' when they hear that, but the vast majority of private schools are nothing like Eton.
And also, unfortunately, these people are usually the first people to suffer when cuts are made despite being useful (unlike Case).
North Carolina Governor Polling:
Stein (D): 50%
Robinson (R): 37%
Morning Consult / Sept 18, 2024 / n=1314
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1836954297356947600
I also agree that these benefits are not what they were. My daughter works for the NHS and is expecting. Her maternity rights are still way ahead of the private sector equivalent but are nothing like what my cousin got a few years ago when she was on full pay for pretty much 3 years whilst being in the office for less than 6 months with 2 pregnancies.
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7735/CBP-7735.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Mahmoud_Al-Mabhouh
29 suspects, all travelling on fake passports of genuine Western citizens with Israeli visas.
But a stunning operation, you have to admire them for that.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/sep/20/uk-consumer-confidence-tumbles-painful-budget-retail-sales-borrowing-business-live
securonomics LOL
Pay really is not the only part of the package. Their pay may be less than the private sector but their package is far greater than what the private sector gets.
How much does the employer put into the teachers pension fund
(The employer being HMG and the taxpayer)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/19/the-guardian-view-on-10-downing-street-labour-risks-losing-the-plot
45% is nailed on for the Dems
45% is nailed on for the Republicans.
At least in the polling
They probably get the worst of both worlds.
But in any case, that only massages the figures it doesn't alter the principle.
Since we were arguing about the figures I suppose that's technically the key point at stake, but in practice huge numbers of people work for the public sector on minimum wage, directly or indirectly.
Ironically, of course, the subcontracting model means they get all of the duff pay and none of the perks of the public sector.
In the UK GE I put money down on two bets, both on Greens, because the Labour odds were so dire. Here you have two picks and 50 states. There's got to be a gap somewhere... 🙏
But that is no excuse for Starmer and co. To not understand just how ridiculously self-defeating such troughing is - on so many levels - really does beggar belief.
Yet for private sector workers, especially working class private sector workers, we've been told for years that the answer is to get ever more low paid immigrants and that pay rises had to be earned through productivity rises.
There's a widespread belief that other groups are being overpaid while their own group should be paid more.
Labour have no economic ideas on how to deal with this.
He said "pension"!!
ha ha ha ha etc
Then, when they inevitably get booted out for mismanaging the economy, we will be treated to the orchestrated outrage of "Tory cuts!". No. Tory economic sanity, Labour economic profligacy. The cycle continues as it has for decades.
And badly.
Meanwhile headlines like this don't help Labour
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/entertainment/tv/prisoner-freed-early-by-starmer-back-in-jail-48-hours-later/ar-AA1qQ7fd?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=6081e40ee4ca4a2d844e49861fe7a6bb&ei=29
Which I think is why they've ended up with limbo until October because their self enforced use of the OBR to check things means they couldn't do it quickly enough..
People in the private sector have so much fantasy about the public sector, it is unbelievable.
A mate in the pub yesterday complained he has lost $9,000 due to selling his share options too soon. Maybe he is not a good comparator as he is in a much better-paid job than me, but in the public sector you can *never* aspire to that sort of bounce.
I looked at a civil service job that had a band bottom slightly under my current pay and top end about £7k above, but with and a note in the advert that new entrants to civil service start at bottom of band (fuck knows why, it means you'll only tend to attract less experienced people from outside - why not match existing salary, within band?). Anyway, I still looked at it because I thought never mind, given increments I'd be at least on par within a year or so and the job looked interesting. But it emerged that increments are largely gone and the pay would not be reviewed until five years service, after which there was an, apparently automatic, fairly hefty jump to near the top of band. I didn't want five years of below inflation pay rises, so I looked elsewhere.
It seems worst of both worlds - you put people off who can either get increments elsewhere in academia or NHS (this was UKHSA research post) or are confident in their skills that they'd progress faster in private sector, but you still give a barely competent time server a big pay rise for simply being there five years. If you're going to ditch increments, then you need to have negotiation each year within band based on performance review - you know, like people in the private sector professional jobs will have a performance ad pay review.
ETA: And increments make below inflation pay rises much more palatable for staff - in most years as an academic I've had above inflation pay rises due to the increment and the pay settlement in combination, even with often below inflation settlements on pay spine points. So you feel like you're progressing: even if the whole hill is sinking, you're still climbing it.
And still drunk, to judge by their output.
So I don't see that as invalidating the hypothesis.
Baffling that Labour haven't been more ruthless in cleaning the augean stables, it seems patently obvious who's orchestrating the damaging stories and that person was shown to be unfit for their role several years ago.
I wonder if they are protected by other stuff they know.
Must be the shortest honeymoon period on record.
The UK had a trade surplus when international travel was much reduced during covid:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret
The UK has been acting like a oldies selling their assets for extra cruises and not worrying about the inheritance of future generations.
I suspect the WFA was announced quickly because they wanted to implement it this winter and felt people needed *some* notice.
At DWP we have had nothing filter down about government plans for us, which is not usually the case 2½ months after an election
Against a GOP candidate who respects democratic norms, Biden may well not have stepped down - and if he had, there would have been an almighty fight amongst Dems on the question of his successor. Trump inspires 100% unity behind Harris.
Now granted they needed to have things ready to go and the budget should have been last week but I think Rishi's delays in kicking off the transition conversations combined with his sudden election announcement made an earlier budget impossible.
Although I doubt it would have made any difference the stories that are now appearing would have appeared in July instead..
"This is not a fatal moment for Sir Keir’s prime ministership. But it is a failure from which it is vital that Sir Keir should learn. He needs a stronger commitment to standards, effectively and independently enforced, so that politics and government can begin to be trusted again. That is not happening at the moment. But it is indispensable. Without it, the risks facing Labour in government will only continue to grow."
Michigan, for example, looks pretty well nailed on now. A 50% return over a month and a half isn't to be sniffed at.
Mercator might also take a look at that for his Harris cashout profits ?
(Or, indeed, worrying much about the condition of their parents when they were the ones paying the taxes to fund the pensions.)
The civil service pension scheme, for example, switched to career average not final salary in 2007 for new joiners, and in 2012 for existing members. A relative had a fight to not be re-categorised as a Civil Servant soon after that for this reason.
And it switched from RPI to CPI in 2010.
And normal pension age is the same as state pension age.
OTOH the pension appears to be CPI linked so nto capped as aggressively as some.
https://www.civilservant.org.uk/information-pensions.html