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Getting the non voters out – politicalbetting.com

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  • 57 - 53 - 49
    Those are all old ages when it comes to starting a family or getting homes.

    Pregnancies over 35 are geriatric, so really ideally people should be in a home of their own well before then as was typical two decades ago but isn't the norm anymore.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,135
    "The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has finally admitted that the 2021 census figures on the transgender population of England and Wales are irredeemably flawed. They no longer count as ‘accredited official statistics’. This is the first time that data from the decennial census – the backbone of British statistics since 1801 – has been downgraded.

    This humiliating climb-down came just a week before the Office for Statistics Regulation published its final review on these statistics. This review had been provoked by my critique of the census transgender figures, publicized in the Spectator last year. Until now, the ONS has brushed aside criticism from sociologists such as myself and Alice Sullivan, and from human rights campaigners like Maya Forstater of Sex Matters and Nicola Williams of Fair Play for Women."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-ons-finally-admits-to-flawed-trans-population-statistics/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited September 2024
    It appears the social media companies have deleted the accounts (well stopped the public viewing them) of the individual named as suspect in Trump incident.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,232
    ydoethur said:

    It took place on a golf course.

    Do we know that @Dura_Ace is safe and at liberty?

    (It may have been a mistake of course. Trump may have been trying to shoot below 200 for once and got frustrated.)
    If the shot missed, it wasn't me.
  • https://x.com/govrondesantis/status/1835476568212201744

    The State of Florida will be conducting its own investigation regarding the attempted assassination at Trump International Golf Club.

    The people deserve the truth about the would be assassin and how he was able to get within 500 yards of the former president and current GOP nominee.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    Andy_JS said:

    "The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has finally admitted that the 2021 census figures on the transgender population of England and Wales are irredeemably flawed. They no longer count as ‘accredited official statistics’. This is the first time that data from the decennial census – the backbone of British statistics since 1801 – has been downgraded.

    This humiliating climb-down came just a week before the Office for Statistics Regulation published its final review on these statistics. This review had been provoked by my critique of the census transgender figures, publicized in the Spectator last year. Until now, the ONS has brushed aside criticism from sociologists such as myself and Alice Sullivan, and from human rights campaigners like Maya Forstater of Sex Matters and Nicola Williams of Fair Play for Women."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-ons-finally-admits-to-flawed-trans-population-statistics/

    Perhaps a less fraught description would help
    • ONS (E&W): Our trans extimate of 0.5% is correct!
    • Spectator: No it isn't! It's 0.4%
    • ONS (E&W): Yes it is!
    • Spectator: You're biased!
    • ONS (E&W): No I'm not! Dad, Spectator are being mean!
    • Statistical Authority: OK, let's have a look. Office of Statistical Regulation, have a look.
    • OSR: OK
    • OSR: Let's wait for Scotland
    • NRS (Scotland): Our trans estimate is 0.45%-ish
    • ONS (E&W): Ooops.
    • Statistical Authority. OK, let's downgrade the stat and work on a gender identity data harmonised standard. ONS, you're not biased. Let's try to get it right for 2031, 'kay
    • ONS (E&W). 'kay
    (The England and Wales 2021 census asked if the gender identity matched that assigned at birth. The Scotland 2022 census asked if you are trans or have a trans history. They gave slightly different answers) You think this is bad, you should have seen the 1991 census... :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    viewcode said:

    Perhaps a less fraught description would help
    • ONS (E&W): Our trans extimate of 0.5% is correct!
    • Spectator: No it isn't! It's 0.4%
    • ONS (E&W): Yes it is!
    • Spectator: You're biased!
    • ONS (E&W): No I'm not! Dad, Spectator are being mean!
    • Statistical Authority: OK, let's have a look. Office of Statistical Regulation, have a look.
    • OSR: OK
    • OSR: Let's wait for Scotland
    • NRS (Scotland): Our trans estimate is 0.45%-ish
    • ONS (E&W): Ooops.
    • Statistical Authority. OK, let's downgrade the stat and work on a gender identity data harmonised standard. ONS, you're not biased. Let's try to get it right for 2031, 'kay
    • ONS (E&W). 'kay
    (The England and Wales 2021 census asked if the gender identity matched that assigned at birth. The Scotland 2022 census asked if you are trans or have a trans history. They gave slightly different answers) You think this is bad, you should have seen the 1991 census... :)
    ...and don't get me started on 2011 Canada :)
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,960
    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are now basically the party of voters who hate Brexit but are too posh to vote Labour. Locally they add on a few pensioners at council elections who hate new homes in nearby fields and want the potholes done but still vote Tory nationally.

    Yes for their national voters Waitrose and Charlie Bingham meals are a must along with holidays in Tuscany.

    I thought you were supposed to be on a charm offensive, young HY!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    It appears the social media companies have deleted the accounts (well stopped the public viewing them) of the individual named as suspect in Trump incident.

    Too late. They have all been screen-shotted.

    To the embarrassment of the "Democrats provoke these assassination attempts!" squad. They should be looking at Nikki Haley instead, it seems.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    An AK-47? Thought they were used for spraying bullets around, in the hope that one might hit the barn door?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,897
    viewcode said:

    Perhaps a less fraught description would help
    • ONS (E&W): Our trans extimate of 0.5% is correct!
    • Spectator: No it isn't! It's 0.4%
    • ONS (E&W): Yes it is!
    • Spectator: You're biased!
    • ONS (E&W): No I'm not! Dad, Spectator are being mean!
    • Statistical Authority: OK, let's have a look. Office of Statistical Regulation, have a look.
    • OSR: OK
    • OSR: Let's wait for Scotland
    • NRS (Scotland): Our trans estimate is 0.45%-ish
    • ONS (E&W): Ooops.
    • Statistical Authority. OK, let's downgrade the stat and work on a gender identity data harmonised standard. ONS, you're not biased. Let's try to get it right for 2031, 'kay
    • ONS (E&W). 'kay
    (The England and Wales 2021 census asked if the gender identity matched that assigned at birth. The Scotland 2022 census asked if you are trans or have a trans history. They gave slightly different answers) You think this is bad, you should have seen the 1991 census... :)
    If you know any trans individuals, you'll know that many of them did nut answer that question on the census, because they do not trust government.

    I had a look for statistics a year or two back and concluded there aren't any reliable numbers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083

    An AK-47? Thought they were used for spraying bullets around, in the hope that one might hit the barn door?

    To be fair, Trump is a pretty large target, but not quite a barn door.

    The interesting question is whether people believe he set him up himself. Given the profile of the person who didn’t take any shots it seems unlikely but you never know.

    Interesting that it’s disaffected Republicans want him dead though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,897
    ClippP said:

    I thought you were supposed to be on a charm offensive, young HY!
    Young HY needs to look in the mirror and ask himself who the Tories represent these days.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,897
    You cannot comprehend the RAGE that rushed through me as I saw that the first google result for googling Hieronymus Bosch is incestuous AI slop..

    What are we even doing here...?

    https://x.com/ItsTheTalia/status/1835092917418889710
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,897

    Too late. They have all been screen-shotted.

    To the embarrassment of the "Democrats provoke these assassination attempts!" squad. They should be looking at Nikki Haley instead, it seems.
    Seems he was disappointed that Covid hadn't killed Trump, Biden and Bernie Sanders.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083
    Nigelb said:

    Seems he was disappointed that Covid hadn't killed Trump, Biden and Bernie Sanders.
    I bet those go viral.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,897
    Huge Supreme Court docs leak exposes chief justice meddling in Trump's January 6 and election cases - read his memos
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13853061/Huge-Supreme-Court-docs-leak-exposes-chief-justice-meddling-Trumps-January-6-election-cases-read-memos.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Another armed idiot trying to have a pop at Trump. Thankfully this one got chased away and arrested, rather than shot dead, and didn’t get close to the former President.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,897
    Maybe a politician who has been subject to assassination attempts shouldn't be running a hate campaign against a celebrity who makes her living performing in public ?

    This is vile on its own terms, but it's also unbelievably irresponsible.
    https://x.com/rockstarronan/status/1835356809319809084
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,280

    Per my bsky feed he seems to be a pro-NATO radical. Tried to organize an Afghan militia to fight in Ukraine and/or Taiwan. Tried to broker an anti-Trump pact between Haley and Ramaswamy. Also previously ran for mayor of Honolulu on a platform of normalizing relations with North Korea, not sure where that fits in.
    Fits with the idea that he's a nutter
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    edited September 2024
    ...

    An AK-47? Thought they were used for spraying bullets around, in the hope that one might hit the barn door?

    It all sounds too good to be true for Trump.

    Colour me sceptical. Trump tanking in the polls so a Republican voting would -be killer gets within a kilometre of assassinating Trump. This has the aroma of sweaty bollocks to my untrained eye. After all it worked like clockwork last time.

    Despite the egregious, inciteful shite Trump comes out with, the rolling news channels are suggesting that the Harris campaign have created the climate for Trump's assassination, by his own supporters. Double bollocks!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,280

    He doesn't believe in polls at all. He has a checklist of 13 things. As for versus Silver, what made Nate a superstar was his ability to not only pick POTUS but how accurate he was all the way down the tickets.

    All these people are often considered Nostradamus until they aren't.
    Silver hasn't exactly called it for Trump. His forecast makes Trump currently slight favorite. If Harris is still slightly ahead in the polls in a couple of weeks I guess he'll have Harris as slight favorite.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,280
    ydoethur said:

    To be fair, Trump is a pretty large target, but not quite a barn door.

    The interesting question is whether people believe he set him up himself. Given the profile of the person who didn’t take any shots it seems unlikely but you never know.

    Interesting that it’s disaffected Republicans want him dead though.
    They might, but this shooter isn't a Republican so far as anyone knows.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    Nigelb said:

    Maybe a politician who has been subject to assassination attempts shouldn't be running a hate campaign against a celebrity who makes her living performing in public ?

    This is vile on its own terms, but it's also unbelievably irresponsible.
    https://x.com/rockstarronan/status/1835356809319809084

    If you scroll down Bette Midler is suggesting Trump's tweet is inviting a nutjobs hit on Taylor Swift.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,232

    An AK-47? Thought they were used for spraying bullets around, in the hope that one might hit the barn door?

    "AK-47" can mean just about anything and the accuracy largely depends on the manufacturer of the barrel. The Serbian and Hungarian ones were very good. The Egyptian and Chinese ones were shit hot garbage that would stovepipe after three rounds.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,280

    ...

    It all sounds too good to be true for Trump.

    Colour me sceptical. Trump tanking in the polls so a Republican voting would -be killer gets within a kilometre of assassinating Trump. This has the aroma of sweaty bollocks to my untrained eye. After all it worked like clockwork last time.

    Despite the egregious, inciteful shite Trump comes out with, the rolling news channels are suggesting that the Harris campaign have created the climate for Trump's assassination, by his own supporters. Double bollocks!
    This post reminds me of the old saying:

    Keep an open mind, but not so open that your brain falls out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083
    kamski said:

    They might, but this shooter isn't a Republican so far as anyone knows.
    'tried to broker an anti-Trump pact between Haley and Ramaswamy' doesn't shriek 'Democrat' to me.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    kamski said:

    This post reminds me of the old saying:

    Keep an open mind, but not so open that your brain falls out.
    Standing in the foyer of Trump Tower on 5th Avenue I got closer to potentially assassinating Trump than this daft f*****.. The GOP voting
    would -be assassin was in greater danger from one of Trump's wayward drives down the sixth fairway than Trump ever was.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,459

    He doesn't believe in polls at all. He has a checklist of 13 things. As for versus Silver, what made Nate a superstar was his ability to not only pick POTUS but how accurate he was all the way down the tickets.

    All these people are often considered Nostradamus until they aren't.
    Yes predictions in an election this close are worth as much as astrology or tossing a coin.
  • kamski said:

    This post reminds me of the old saying:

    Keep an open mind, but not so open that your brain falls out.
    It doesn't seem terribly correct anatomically. Perhaps it suffers in translation.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    kamski said:

    They might, but this shooter isn't a Republican so far as anyone knows.
    They're the ones with their own personal arsenals, so the probability, let alone the evidence, suggests he probably is.
  • People on Twitter (yes, I know...) are saying the guy is a pro-Ukraine nutjob who fought in Ukraine for a few months.

    Which would be *very* convenient for both Trump and Putin.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,370
    Nigelb said:

    Seems he was disappointed that Covid hadn't killed Trump, Biden and Bernie Sanders.
    He also thinks that COVID-19 did not come from animals in the Wuhan wet market.
  • People on Twitter (yes, I know...) are saying the guy is a pro-Ukraine nutjob who fought in Ukraine for a few months.

    Which would be *very* convenient for both Trump and Putin.

    The Times have the same story

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/6202d93c-fc62-4535-80c1-ceab2c21710d?shareToken=f3a51b22ccd25f506d8be9412ff3438d
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited September 2024

    People on Twitter (yes, I know...) are saying the guy is a pro-Ukraine nutjob who fought in Ukraine for a few months.

    Which would be *very* convenient for both Trump and Putin.

    He's in this NYT story about the trouble Ukraine have been having with various military-minded nutcases showing up to "help".

    https://archive.md/VR4ge
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,897
    Further to my point about Trump seeking to deport legal migrants.

    Trump here uses the phrase "remigration." I was unfamiliar with the term, so I googled it.

    Wikipedia describes it as a "far-right and Identitarian political concept" largely used to describe the mass deportation of non-white immigrants and their descendants from Europe.

    https://x.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1835398406572839103
  • NEW THREAD

  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,280

    They're the ones with their own personal arsenals, so the probability, let alone the evidence, suggests he probably is.
    Well, as an unaffiliated voter he voted in this year's Democratic primary (for Biden). He donated to ActBlue f 2019-2020.
    Against that he said he voted Trump in 2016, and he has access to a gun. He's also a white man with a criminal record, so I guess that proves it.

    Are you actually another one of Leon's identities? if so well-played - you had me fooled!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,897
    I'm astonished to learn that Vance was probably lying about something else. And that the MSM has yet to check his numbers.

    Thread:

    Far-right movements have been using Springfield, Ohio as a propaganda tool since early 2023.

    There aren’t 20,000 Haitian immigrants there
    in fact, there are barely 5,000 in the entire state.

    The level of cognitive dissonance required for this narrative is staggering...

    https://x.com/ellim992/status/1834808909452001532

    As for those 'swamped' (why is that always the verb of choice ?) local services.

    Annual head count for Springfield City School District on those files -

    2024: 7,415
    2023: 7,227
    2022: 7,107
    2021: 7,099
    2020: 7,716
    2019: 7,551
    2018: 7,661
    2017: 7,759..

    https://x.com/ellim992/status/1834808913696637126

    National media has been broadcasting Trump and Vance's shit for days, and not bothered to do some simple journalism.

    AFAIK, Vance has never visited Springfield.
This discussion has been closed.