Hope that works. James Kangasooriam pointing out that Trump leads by 25% on the economy and 72% on immigration and these are ishoos 1 and 2 with Usonians. JK is such an inept political commentator, he is credited with inventing the expression "red wall" in the UK.
Until today I imagined immigration was only an issue for those within two days hard riding of the Mexico border, what we might call the From Dusk Till Dawn belt (my picture of the US is in no way exclusively based on popular culture). Springfield Ohio turns out to be 1,300 miles from San Antonio. I don't see how Trump can have engineered the cat eating story to be about Ohio not Texas, but he sure got lucky.
This is in no way Trump fluffing, it's a celebration of my very profitable cash out this morning of a position built around KH at 11. Might nibble at some state markets later, but WH24 is a nailed on net win for me if not for KH.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I think YouGovUS and YouGov are separate companies, albeit within the same "franchise" so to speak. The personnel are different and live stateside.
This message is not approved by @williamglenn so please ignore.
Don't attack posters who share information that's not good for Harris please.
We need accurate information to bet on this election.
Best give me another flag then.
I am quite content for William to post Trump- positive polls, however, and granted they are few and far between now, he has been very reluctant to show a balanced approach and post any Harris leads.
Well, we have 678 other posters doing that so, you know, deal with it.
I can't believe how many bright Tories who are good at betting aren't clear that the writing is on the wall for Kemi.
There's no realistic chance she'll get more votes than Jenrick, nor any realistic chance that she'll get more transfers than Tugendhat/Cleverly.
I can't see a viable path for Kemi to the members vote. Rule number one of politics - or political gambling - know how to count.
The only way it happens is if Badenoch can take a meaningful number of votes from not-right-wing Conservative MPs. Ten more votes- to get up to 38- doesn't sound a lot, but it is a lot in this context.
And as someone whose Conservatism was always more at the Caroline Noakes end of the spectrum, it's not obvious that Badenoch is much of an improvement on Jenrick from my point of view. (If, by some hideous twist of fate I had ended up a 2024 Conservative MP, I'd have gone Stride -> Cleverly.)
Though experiment. Had the first two eliminations been reversed, how would we be thinking about the race? I suspect we would now be talking about Cleverly advancing and Badenoch (and Jenrick) stalling.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
There seems to be a bit of an internal contradiction in your post.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
Don’t fret too much. US takes on UK politics are a few orders of magnitude worse.
Trump refuses to say whether he wants Ukraine to win war against Russia
Do Biden/Harris want Ukraine to defeat Russia and retake Crimea?
Yes.
Do you have a direct quote from her about retaking Crimea?
Crimea is part of Ukraine. I'm not aware of Harris supporting any territorial changes, but I'm sure she'd support something if Ukraine agreed to it.
That makes her position sound very cynical.
What is cynical is you pretending to support Ukraine.
Biden/Harris have constrained Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia.
According to you Harris would support territorial concessions to Russia if Ukraine agrees (despite her being complicit in putting Ukraine in a weak negotiating position). It's hard to see any basis to condemn Trump, other than psychological projection.
Hope that works. James Kangasooriam pointing out that Trump leads by 25% on the economy and 72% on immigration and these are ishoos 1 and 2 with Usonians. JK is such an inept political commentator, he is credited with inventing the expression "red wall" in the UK.
Until today I imagined immigration was only an issue for those within two days hard riding of the Mexico border, what we might call the From Dusk Till Dawn belt (my picture of the US is in no way exclusively based on popular culture). Springfield Ohio turns out to be 1,300 miles from San Antonio. I don't see how Trump can have engineered the cat eating story to be about Ohio not Texas, but he sure got lucky.
This is in no way Trump fluffing, it's a celebration of my very profitable cash out this morning of a position built around KH at 11. Might nibble at some state markets later, but WH24 is a nailed on net win for me if not for KH.
Possible betting value at the moment: Trump for POTUS. Cleverly for Tory leader. (There is a chance that Cleverly would be the candidate to make some appeal to wets and drys, the nearest thing to a compromise candidate.)
I watched the debate. Both candidates were seriously unimpressive. Trump kept going off on mad tangents about immigrants, and Harris was very nervous. A difficult choice for those that have to make it.
This message is not approved by @williamglenn so please ignore.
Don't attack posters who share information that's not good for Harris please.
We need accurate information to bet on this election.
Best give me another flag then.
I am quite content for William to post Trump- positive polls, however, and granted they are few and far between now, he has been very reluctant to show a balanced approach and post any Harris leads.
Well, we have 678 other posters doing that so, you know, deal with it.
No, there are many posters presenting balanced polling data. That is more useful than simply cheerleading for Trump.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
Brits who follow US politics have more of a clue about it than Americans who don't.
Trump refuses to say whether he wants Ukraine to win war against Russia
Do Biden/Harris want Ukraine to defeat Russia and retake Crimea?
Yes.
Do you have a direct quote from her about retaking Crimea?
Crimea is part of Ukraine. I'm not aware of Harris supporting any territorial changes, but I'm sure she'd support something if Ukraine agreed to it.
That makes her position sound very cynical.
What is cynical is you pretending to support Ukraine.
Biden/Harris have constrained Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia.
According to you Harris would support territorial concessions to Russia if Ukraine agrees (despite her being complicit in putting Ukraine in a weak negotiating position). It's hard to see any basis to condemn Trump, other than psychological projection.
I can't work out whether you believe what you post or you're just trolling. Which is it?
This drug rape mass trial just gets worse as the case progresses. Now we hear that one of the men involved took drugs from the central man involved to do the same to his own wife.
I watched the debate. Both candidates were seriously unimpressive. Trump kept going off on mad tangents about immigrants, and Harris was very nervous. A difficult choice for those that have to make it.
Trump refuses to say whether he wants Ukraine to win war against Russia
Do Biden/Harris want Ukraine to defeat Russia and retake Crimea?
Yes.
Do you have a direct quote from her about retaking Crimea?
Crimea is part of Ukraine. I'm not aware of Harris supporting any territorial changes, but I'm sure she'd support something if Ukraine agreed to it.
That makes her position sound very cynical.
What is cynical is you pretending to support Ukraine.
Biden/Harris have constrained Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia.
According to you Harris would support territorial concessions to Russia if Ukraine agrees (despite her being complicit in putting Ukraine in a weak negotiating position). It's hard to see any basis to condemn Trump, other than psychological projection.
I can't work out whether you believe what you post or you're just trolling. Which is it?
My theory has long been that WilliamGlenn uses this site as debate practise
Trump refuses to say whether he wants Ukraine to win war against Russia
Do Biden/Harris want Ukraine to defeat Russia and retake Crimea?
Yes.
Do you have a direct quote from her about retaking Crimea?
Crimea is part of Ukraine. I'm not aware of Harris supporting any territorial changes, but I'm sure she'd support something if Ukraine agreed to it.
That makes her position sound very cynical.
What is cynical is you pretending to support Ukraine.
Biden/Harris have constrained Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia.
According to you Harris would support territorial concessions to Russia if Ukraine agrees (despite her being complicit in putting Ukraine in a weak negotiating position). It's hard to see any basis to condemn Trump, other than psychological projection.
I can't work out whether you believe what you post or you're just trolling. Which is it?
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
People like me who think Trump is himself a basket of deplorables, or even a deplorable basket do hopecast. Even David Pakman warned the trend is with Trump. Can't stop us wishing, even if that is appearing merely to be wishful thinking.
This drug rape mass trial just gets worse as the case progresses. Now we hear that one of the men involved took drugs from the central man involved to do the same to his own wife.
I was reflecting on this, and the shock it’s created. It is unusual, and news, because the victim was an adult woman. We’ve become so inured to paedophile rings that do this sort of thing to children that it no longer shocks.
Trump refuses to say whether he wants Ukraine to win war against Russia
Do Biden/Harris want Ukraine to defeat Russia and retake Crimea?
Yes.
Do you have a direct quote from her about retaking Crimea?
Crimea is part of Ukraine. I'm not aware of Harris supporting any territorial changes, but I'm sure she'd support something if Ukraine agreed to it.
That makes her position sound very cynical.
What is cynical is you pretending to support Ukraine.
Biden/Harris have constrained Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia.
According to you Harris would support territorial concessions to Russia if Ukraine agrees (despite her being complicit in putting Ukraine in a weak negotiating position). It's hard to see any basis to condemn Trump, other than psychological projection.
I can't work out whether you believe what you post or you're just trolling. Which is it?
My theory has long been that WilliamGlenn uses this site as debate practise
Then you'd think he would be getting better at it!
Trump refuses to say whether he wants Ukraine to win war against Russia
Do Biden/Harris want Ukraine to defeat Russia and retake Crimea?
Yes.
Do you have a direct quote from her about retaking Crimea?
Crimea is part of Ukraine. I'm not aware of Harris supporting any territorial changes, but I'm sure she'd support something if Ukraine agreed to it.
That makes her position sound very cynical.
What is cynical is you pretending to support Ukraine.
Biden/Harris have constrained Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia.
According to you Harris would support territorial concessions to Russia if Ukraine agrees (despite her being complicit in putting Ukraine in a weak negotiating position). It's hard to see any basis to condemn Trump, other than psychological projection.
I can't work out whether you believe what you post or you're just trolling. Which is it?
Is what I've stated factually incorrect?
I’ve had schoolteachers like Williamglenn. The question. The silence that follows. The quizzical raised eyebrow.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
Betting markets, being in their nature international, are not always but usually a better guide to reality than either liberal or anti-liberal sentiment.
The markets say that the US election is wafer thin close; I think they are pricing Trump slightly too long but not much. We ought to know by now that nothing he can say about eating dogs or the merits of sexually assaulting women make a difference to his base. I think he will win.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
Brits who follow US politics have more of a clue about it than Americans who don't.
Yes. Having a vote trumps having a clue, though, and all the cluefulness in the world about DT or KH is valueless if you process it by assessing whether you personally sitting in an English home county like or dislike the cut of someone's jib. So much commentary boils down to "You would have to be mad to vote for Trump so people won't", which really gives insufficient weight to 2016.
Trump refuses to say whether he wants Ukraine to win war against Russia
Do Biden/Harris want Ukraine to defeat Russia and retake Crimea?
Yes.
Do you have a direct quote from her about retaking Crimea?
Crimea is part of Ukraine. I'm not aware of Harris supporting any territorial changes, but I'm sure she'd support something if Ukraine agreed to it.
That makes her position sound very cynical.
What is cynical is you pretending to support Ukraine.
Biden/Harris have constrained Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia.
According to you Harris would support territorial concessions to Russia if Ukraine agrees (despite her being complicit in putting Ukraine in a weak negotiating position). It's hard to see any basis to condemn Trump, other than psychological projection.
I can't work out whether you believe what you post or you're just trolling. Which is it?
My theory has long been that WilliamGlenn uses this site as debate practise
He was at his very impressive best debating in favour of the promotion of Eurofederalism.
I watched the debate. Both candidates were seriously unimpressive. Trump kept going off on mad tangents about immigrants, and Harris was very nervous. A difficult choice for those that have to make it.
That's incredibly perceptive to detect Harris's excessive nervousness when there was no sign of it after the first couple of minutes.
FPT: First, the standard advice on North American bears: If it's black, fight back. If it's brown, lay down. And pretend to be dead.) If it's white, say good night.
And if it is a mother bear with one or more cubs, retreat slowly and cautiously.
Contrary to what PB's quasi-resident Parapathetic Traveller fondly believes, bears most definitely ARE present throughout rural British Columbia, and indeed in exurban-to-suburban sections of the Lower Mainland AND the Okanagan Valley.
So heed Jim Miller's sage advice!
Actually you’re right. Turns out I read the info on grizzlies. There are very few grizzlies in this part of the Canadian cascades
But I just checked. Apparently there are LOADS of black bears
This is the first release of our model estimating 2024 presidential election votes in every state, based upon nearly 100,000 recent interviews of registered voters. We show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% just before their first debate. However, the race will be determined by who wins the most electoral votes, not popular votes, and, as it currently stands, the race is a toss-up.
We have Harris leading in 22 states and Washington D.C. with 256 electoral votes and Trump leading in 25 states with 235 electoral vote.
I don't think Cleverly has much of a chance (much is the shame, he's a decent guy and the best candidate). But, were he to lead the party, it would be – I think – the first time both main party leaders were atheists. I dare say @HYUFD and other political historians will verify?
I watched the debate. Both candidates were seriously unimpressive. Trump kept going off on mad tangents about immigrants, and Harris was very nervous. A difficult choice for those that have to make it.
This drug rape mass trial just gets worse as the case progresses. Now we hear that one of the men involved took drugs from the central man involved to do the same to his own wife.
I was reflecting on this, and the shock it’s created. It is unusual, and news, because the victim was an adult woman. We’ve become so inured to paedophile rings that do this sort of thing to children that it no longer shocks.
I think the child involving cases are less newsworthy because the identity of the children is often withheld, for understandable reasons, and these sorts of stories are more compelling when we have a specific person to connect them with.
The Trump arselicking by the usual suspects on here is getting seriously creepy.
Could you specify at least two arselickers and identify the offending posts, please? Because I am sure you will want to rebut the suggestion that you cannot tell the difference between thinking trump might win and wanting Trump to win. Call me Mr Stupid if you will, but leaving aside a bit of teasing by williamglenn I don't see what you are on about.
A senior City barrister who has represented Royal Bank of Scotland in the past has been accused of groping a junior female colleague under a table at a work dinner.
James Samuel O’Leary, 45, has been accused by the Bar Standards Board (BSB) of damaging the public’s trust in the profession over claims he stroked a legal assistant’s leg under the dinner table without consent.
Mr O’Leary, a member of elite commercial barristers’ chambers One Essex Court, appeared at a tribunal on Thursday over misconduct towards the legal assistant, referred to as Person A.
The alleged harassment took place at a busy, dimly-lit restaurant in December 2022, where Person A’s team were celebrating with Mr O’Leary and another barrister who were both hired by her City law firm to work on a case.
Person A, then 29, was the only woman present at the six-person dinner involving barristers and solicitors, a fact which she found “intimidating”.
The complainant initially thought Mr O’Leary, who sat next to her on the same bench, touched her leg by accident as the group had consumed several bottles of wine during the meal.
However, Mr O’Leary then allegedly placed and held his hand on her inner-upper thigh, with his fingers pointing downwards towards her groin.
Person A claimed she moved her body away from Mr O’Leary but found he was “persistent and would not stop”.
She also claimed Mr O’Leary, a graduate of the University of Oxford, repeatedly attempted to take her hand despite Person A placing a medium-sized bag on her lap.
I’m tempted. I have a few spare days at the end of this trip and I was thinking - go south to the sun maybe Oregon (never been) or Northern California (likewise apart from Frisco)
But then I thought THE YUKON. Just the name alone
And all that brilliant gold rush history
Will be fucking cold and probably wet but at least it’s after mosquito season…
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
There seems to be a bit of an internal contradiction in your post.
Not saying I do either, I regularly get it wrong, but I know a bubble and group think when I see it.
JD Vance on Fox News: We admire Taylor Swift's music, but I don't think most Americans are gonna be influenced by a billionaire celebrity who I think is fundamentally disconnected from the interests and the problems of most Americans
Wanting information that reveals the true state of the race exposed, and not suppressed, and challenging loaded or bias evidence, is essentially to placing accurate bets. And that does not imply support for one candidate or another.
Idiots like you can put people off posting and cost punters a lot of money.
I’m tempted. I have a few spare days at the end of this trip and I was thinking - go south to the sun maybe Oregon (never been) or Northern California (likewise apart from Frisco)
But then I thought THE YUKON. Just the name alone
And all that brilliant gold rush history
Will be fucking cold and probably wet but at least it’s after mosquito season…
And most of those 32% will be people less able to afford the loss of discount, 34% of private renters and 43% of social renters are in single person households...hardly broad shoulders
Remove the discount for bands C upwards, or something similar.
Then you'd need another discount for oldies who didn't downsize, and by the time you've done all that it's little different from chopping the discount to 20% or putting it up by 5% for everyone.
Shouldn’t policy be encouraging (strongly) oldies to downsize?
Main reasons they don't downsize
Its the house they have lived in for decades, it holds memories There support network and friends are colocated They want room for family to visit (now I am not a pensioner but I deliberately rented a house with a spare bedroom rather than a one bedroom flat for the following reason....cost of my son and his wife coming to stay for 2 weeks currently....cost of travel, if however I had no room for them to sleep and they had to get a hotel travel + £1400+ inconvenience to them = instead of visiting two or three times a year they might visit once every two years
You also notice many who bang on about oldies downsizing are horrified if you suggest maybe people on benefits shouldn't live in high rent area's costing a fortune in council tax...because "they will lose their support network"
OGH and Mrs OGH wanted to downsize and move into a nice apartment overlooking the river in Bedford. They would have been swapping a 4 bedroom house for a 2 bedroom flat, and in theory it would have freed up around £200k as well.
Unfortunately, given stamp duty and other costs, they would have ended up out of pocket if they moved.
Result: instead of freeing up a nice 4 bedroom house with garden for a family, they are staying in a place that is too big for them.
I’m in a similar position in a house that is too big. But the idea of incurring significant tax leakage is unappealing
I’m tempted. I have a few spare days at the end of this trip and I was thinking - go south to the sun maybe Oregon (never been) or Northern California (likewise apart from Frisco)
But then I thought THE YUKON. Just the name alone
And all that brilliant gold rush history
Will be fucking cold and probably wet but at least it’s after mosquito season…
Go north, young man. NoCal will be bloody dismal at this time of year (see Mark Twain, the worst winter of my life was a summer in San Francisco) and the Yukon looks really cool and ice road truckish.
I’m tempted. I have a few spare days at the end of this trip and I was thinking - go south to the sun maybe Oregon (never been) or Northern California (likewise apart from Frisco)
But then I thought THE YUKON. Just the name alone
And all that brilliant gold rush history
Will be fucking cold and probably wet but at least it’s after mosquito season…
yellowstone! might be a bit out of the way.
It was top of my list but it’s weirdly hard to get to from BC. Either a 20 hour drive - so 3-4 days of constant on the road-ness or complex and pricey air routes then more car hire etc
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
People like me who think Trump is himself a basket of deplorables, or even a deplorable basket do hopecast. Even David Pakman warned the trend is with Trump. Can't stop us wishing, even if that is appearing merely to be wishful thinking.
OK, but I'm not particularly interested in your wishes or thoughts on him.
JD Vance on Fox News: We admire Taylor Swift's music, but I don't think most Americans are gonna be influenced by a billionaire celebrity who I think is fundamentally disconnected from the interests and the problems of most Americans
I’m tempted. I have a few spare days at the end of this trip and I was thinking - go south to the sun maybe Oregon (never been) or Northern California (likewise apart from Frisco)
But then I thought THE YUKON. Just the name alone
And all that brilliant gold rush history
Will be fucking cold and probably wet but at least it’s after mosquito season…
yellowstone! might be a bit out of the way.
It was top of my list but it’s weirdly hard to get to from BC. Either a 20 hour drive - so 3-4 days of constant on the road-ness or complex and pricey air routes then more car hire etc
An old joke (from the mid-seventh century) about the Roman emperor Phocas may be appropriate at this time. (I am no classical scholar, but I suspect he may not be highly regarded by most who are.)
God appeared in a dream to a certain abbot. The abbot asked: 'Is it true that all rulers are appointed by heavenly command?' The answer was positive. 'Then, why, O Lord, did you send the wicked tyrant Phocas to rule the Roman people?' 'Because', came the stern reply, 'I could find no one worse."
source: "Humour, History and Politics in Late Antiquity and the Early Middle Ages", edited by Guy Halsall, p. 68
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
People like me who think Trump is himself a basket of deplorables, or even a deplorable basket do hopecast. Even David Pakman warned the trend is with Trump. Can't stop us wishing, even if that is appearing merely to be wishful thinking.
OK, but I'm not particularly interested in your wishes or thoughts on him.
Sorry.
No need to apologise. I couldn't give a shiny one for any of your pontifications on, well anything actually.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
There seems to be a bit of an internal contradiction in your post.
Not saying I do either, I regularly get it wrong, but I know a bubble and group think when I see it.
Which bubble? Which groupthink?
SFAICS UK opinion, so far as the UK is interested, thinks that the POTUS election is very close (see the betting markets) and that the USA is politically and culturally divided and isn't good at the moment at finding common ground.
And that America's style of democracy is under strain because there isn't, as there is in the UK, a wholehearted sense of 'losers consent' to whatever the result will be.
The UK is short of people who will rationally explain and defend Trump's approach to things which belong to democracy (suchn as 6th January) without tortuous special pleading because from a UK cultural perspective it can't be done. This renders Trump and Trumpism particularly accountable for the problems USA democracy is in.
I’m tempted. I have a few spare days at the end of this trip and I was thinking - go south to the sun maybe Oregon (never been) or Northern California (likewise apart from Frisco)
But then I thought THE YUKON. Just the name alone
And all that brilliant gold rush history
Will be fucking cold and probably wet but at least it’s after mosquito season…
yellowstone! might be a bit out of the way.
It was top of my list but it’s weirdly hard to get to from BC. Either a 20 hour drive - so 3-4 days of constant on the road-ness or complex and pricey air routes then more car hire etc
North America is BIG
hard for Brits to comprehend how big, I think.
“Nipping” from Vancouver to Yellowstone is not like going from london to Frankfurt, as I imagined, but much more like going from Liverpool to the Carpathian Mountains
Except harder. Because North America does not have the complex web of cheap air routes we have in Europe. We are blessed in Europe - so much interest and beauty is packed tightly together and all linked superbly by road and rail and air
Wanting information that reveals the true state of the race exposed, and not suppressed, and challenging loaded or bias evidence, is essentially to placing accurate bets. And that does not imply support for one candidate or another.
Idiots like you can put people off posting and cost punters a lot of money.
So jog on.
Are you okay? My post wasn’t aimed at you. But thanks for your kind words.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
There seems to be a bit of an internal contradiction in your post.
Not saying I do either, I regularly get it wrong, but I know a bubble and group think when I see it.
Which bubble? Which groupthink?
SFAICS UK opinion, so far as the UK is interested, thinks that the POTUS election is very close (see the betting markets) and that the USA is politically and culturally divided and isn't good at the moment at finding common ground.
And that America's style of democracy is under strain because there isn't, as there is in the UK, a wholehearted sense of 'losers consent' to whatever the result will be.
The UK is short of people who will rationally explain and defend Trump's approach to things which belong to democracy (suchn as 6th January) without tortuous special pleading because from a UK cultural perspective it can't be done. This renders Trump and Trumpism particularly accountable for the problems USA democracy is in.
No bubble. No groupthink.
I've "liked" your excellent post so by Casino's definition we are now a "herd". Sorry!
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
There seems to be a bit of an internal contradiction in your post.
Not saying I do either, I regularly get it wrong, but I know a bubble and group think when I see it.
Which bubble? Which groupthink?
SFAICS UK opinion, so far as the UK is interested, thinks that the POTUS election is very close (see the betting markets) and that the USA is politically and culturally divided and isn't good at the moment at finding common ground.
And that America's style of democracy is under strain because there isn't, as there is in the UK, a wholehearted sense of 'losers consent' to whatever the result will be.
The UK is short of people who will rationally explain and defend Trump's approach to things which belong to democracy (suchn as 6th January) without tortuous special pleading because from a UK cultural perspective it can't be done. This renders Trump and Trumpism particularly accountable for the problems USA democracy is in.
No bubble. No groupthink.
I'm afraid there is bubble and group think. It comes from anything good for Harris being megaphoned and echoed by about 43 different people on here, whilst anything good for Trump is sledged or met with ad hominem.
Does every single poster do this? No, and not you either to be fair, but I can think of only 3 or 4 who try to inject a bit of rational balance.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
People like me who think Trump is himself a basket of deplorables, or even a deplorable basket do hopecast. Even David Pakman warned the trend is with Trump. Can't stop us wishing, even if that is appearing merely to be wishful thinking.
OK, but I'm not particularly interested in your wishes or thoughts on him.
Sorry.
No need to apologise. I couldn't give a shiny one for any of your pontifications on, well anything actually.
I’m tempted. I have a few spare days at the end of this trip and I was thinking - go south to the sun maybe Oregon (never been) or Northern California (likewise apart from Frisco)
But then I thought THE YUKON. Just the name alone
And all that brilliant gold rush history
Will be fucking cold and probably wet but at least it’s after mosquito season…
If you are driving it's a bloody long way. But there is something quite visceral about driving north. The towns get smaller and further apart. There's just distance. You need forward planning for food, fuel and the bathroom. Lakes get bigger, forests denser. Then suddenly, sparse, and alone for miles and miles. It's like approaching the inevitable. Colder, darker and lonelier. Like impending aging and death.
“Nipping” from Vancouver to Yellowstone is not like going from london to Frankfurt, as I imagined, but much more like going from Liverpool to the Carpathian Mountains
I'd imagine Frankfurt receives a footfall many times greater than Yellowstone and has to be significantly better connected. Because it's Frankfurt. Ditto London.
Yellowstone is breathtakingly lovely, but very few people have to go there for regular fortnightly meetings.
I stayed in an Ice Hotel in the Carpathian Mountains on my honeymoon. One of those things I'm glad I've done but am not in a tremendous hurry to repeat.
Wanting information that reveals the true state of the race exposed, and not suppressed, and challenging loaded or bias evidence, is essentially to placing accurate bets. And that does not imply support for one candidate or another.
Idiots like you can put people off posting and cost punters a lot of money.
So jog on.
Are you okay? My post wasn’t aimed at you. But thanks for your kind words.
I'm fine, thanks. Maybe dial back on the anonymous shotgun negs?
You're like Prince Harry accusing "someone" in the Royal Family of being a beastly racist and then never naming who it is.
I’m tempted. I have a few spare days at the end of this trip and I was thinking - go south to the sun maybe Oregon (never been) or Northern California (likewise apart from Frisco)
But then I thought THE YUKON. Just the name alone
And all that brilliant gold rush history
Will be fucking cold and probably wet but at least it’s after mosquito season…
If you are driving it's a bloody long way. But there is something quite visceral about driving north. The towns get smaller and further apart. There's just distance. You need forward planning for food, fuel and the bathroom. Lakes get bigger, forests denser. Then suddenly, sparse, and alone for miles and miles. It's like approaching the inevitable. Colder, darker and lonelier. Like impending aging and death.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
There seems to be a bit of an internal contradiction in your post.
Not saying I do either, I regularly get it wrong, but I know a bubble and group think when I see it.
Which bubble? Which groupthink?
SFAICS UK opinion, so far as the UK is interested, thinks that the POTUS election is very close (see the betting markets) and that the USA is politically and culturally divided and isn't good at the moment at finding common ground.
And that America's style of democracy is under strain because there isn't, as there is in the UK, a wholehearted sense of 'losers consent' to whatever the result will be.
The UK is short of people who will rationally explain and defend Trump's approach to things which belong to democracy (suchn as 6th January) without tortuous special pleading because from a UK cultural perspective it can't be done. This renders Trump and Trumpism particularly accountable for the problems USA democracy is in.
No bubble. No groupthink.
I'm afraid there is bubble and group think. It comes from anything good for Harris being megaphoned and echoed by about 43 different people on here, whilst anything good for Trump is sledged or met with ad hominem.
Does every single poster do this? No, and not you either to be fair, but I can think of only 3 or 4 who try to inject a bit of rational balance.
We definitely need rational voices reminding us how close the US election is and that Trump can win.
Do we need irrational voices claiming Trump will be good for Ukraine?
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
There seems to be a bit of an internal contradiction in your post.
Not saying I do either, I regularly get it wrong, but I know a bubble and group think when I see it.
Which bubble? Which groupthink?
SFAICS UK opinion, so far as the UK is interested, thinks that the POTUS election is very close (see the betting markets) and that the USA is politically and culturally divided and isn't good at the moment at finding common ground.
And that America's style of democracy is under strain because there isn't, as there is in the UK, a wholehearted sense of 'losers consent' to whatever the result will be.
The UK is short of people who will rationally explain and defend Trump's approach to things which belong to democracy (suchn as 6th January) without tortuous special pleading because from a UK cultural perspective it can't be done. This renders Trump and Trumpism particularly accountable for the problems USA democracy is in.
No bubble. No groupthink.
Incoherent. UK thought "from a UK cultural perspective" about US affairs is a paradigm of bubbly groupthink.
You can be a lot more robust about Trump, he is a shit and a bully and a traitor and January 6 was wrong by absolute standards, bugger all to do with "cultural norms." BUT what is also wrong is 1. the assumption that KH is going to be a better president just because she is obviously (to an Englishman sitting in Tunbridge Wells) 1,000 x as nice as a person, and 2. the inability to understand that to say an outcome (like a trump presidency) is likely or possible is not the same thing as saying that the outcome is desirable. And 3. while I am at it, the inability to see, even after the event, that toppling Biden on the basis of his obvious senility was an ANTI Trump move.
Ps. Yukon in October won't be that cold. It's the transition month. Early on it's like an English winter. Later in the month like the coldest English winter. But nowt too excessive.
Wanting information that reveals the true state of the race exposed, and not suppressed, and challenging loaded or bias evidence, is essentially to placing accurate bets. And that does not imply support for one candidate or another.
Idiots like you can put people off posting and cost punters a lot of money.
So jog on.
Are you okay? My post wasn’t aimed at you. But thanks for your kind words.
I'm fine, thanks. Maybe dial back on the anonymous shotgun negs?
You're like Prince Harry accusing "someone" in the Royal Family of being a beastly racist and then never naming who it is.
Because it didn't happen.
I think he was referring to William Glenn. It's upsetting to some that William has become a remorseless implacable one-eyed Trump fan with a total refusal to brook opposition. They liked it much more when he was a remorseless implacable one-eyed Brussels fan with a total refusal to brook opposition.
Wanting information that reveals the true state of the race exposed, and not suppressed, and challenging loaded or bias evidence, is essentially to placing accurate bets. And that does not imply support for one candidate or another.
Idiots like you can put people off posting and cost punters a lot of money.
So jog on.
Are you okay? My post wasn’t aimed at you. But thanks for your kind words.
I'm fine, thanks. Maybe dial back on the anonymous shotgun negs?
You're like Prince Harry accusing "someone" in the Royal Family of being a beastly racist and then never naming who it is.
Because it didn't happen.
It bloomin' well did happen. I heard it with my own ears on Oprah.
Becoming devastatingly unpopular was apparently the plan for the first few months, we now hear. All going to be turned around by the budget (unless it isn't).
Wanting information that reveals the true state of the race exposed, and not suppressed, and challenging loaded or bias evidence, is essentially to placing accurate bets. And that does not imply support for one candidate or another.
Idiots like you can put people off posting and cost punters a lot of money.
So jog on.
Are you okay? My post wasn’t aimed at you. But thanks for your kind words.
I'm fine, thanks. Maybe dial back on the anonymous shotgun negs?
You're like Prince Harry accusing "someone" in the Royal Family of being a beastly racist and then never naming who it is.
Because it didn't happen.
I think he was referring to William Glenn. It's upsetting to some that William has become a remorseless implacable one-eyed Trump fan with a total refusal to brook opposition. They liked it much more when he was a remorseless implacable one-eyed Brussels fan with a total refusal to brook opposition.
Remarkably he was a Trump fan and Brussels fan at the same time.
Wanting information that reveals the true state of the race exposed, and not suppressed, and challenging loaded or bias evidence, is essentially to placing accurate bets. And that does not imply support for one candidate or another.
Idiots like you can put people off posting and cost punters a lot of money.
So jog on.
Are you okay? My post wasn’t aimed at you. But thanks for your kind words.
I'm fine, thanks. Maybe dial back on the anonymous shotgun negs?
You're like Prince Harry accusing "someone" in the Royal Family of being a beastly racist and then never naming who it is.
Because it didn't happen.
Shakespeare nails this
Abraham: Do you bite your thumb at us, sir? Sampson: I do bite my thumb, sir. Abraham: Do you bite your thumb at us, sir? Sampson (to Gregory): Is the law of our side if I say ay? Gregory: No. Sampson: No, sir, I do not bite my thumb at you sir; but I bite my thumb, sir.
I think I was 7 when I last encountered someone who, also 7, used "bedwetter" as an insult. Coincidentally he typically smelled of stale urine, but I have never been one to extrapolate...
Not much reported but US inflation fell back to 2,5% , the lowest in 3 years . Next week the Fed are likely to cut rates by 0.25% .
This will certainly help Harris.
Biden's economic record is actually very respectable and considerably better than Trump's (albeit Trump's figures were more distorted by Covid). Superb job growth, including 750k new manufacturing jobs. A burst of inflation but down now. Strong growth figures. Deficit not so good but again not much worse than Trump. Substantial improvement in infrastructure.
Becoming devastatingly unpopular was apparently the plan for the first few months, we now hear. All going to be turned around by the budget (unless it isn't).
As a small child I was told not to pull ugly faces because if the wind direction changed I would be stuck looking like that forever. I greatly fear that it's going to back or veer for SKS, what a shame.
ETA but this is meant to be just a warm up for the horrors of the budget unless you mean budget 2027
FPT: First, the standard advice on North American bears: If it's black, fight back. If it's brown, lay down. And pretend to be dead.) If it's white, say good night.
And if it is a mother bear with one or more cubs, retreat slowly and cautiously.
Contrary to what PB's quasi-resident Parapathetic Traveller fondly believes, bears most definitely ARE present throughout rural British Columbia, and indeed in exurban-to-suburban sections of the Lower Mainland AND the Okanagan Valley.
So heed Jim Miller's sage advice!
Actually you’re right. Turns out I read the info on grizzlies. There are very few grizzlies in this part of the Canadian cascades
But I just checked. Apparently there are LOADS of black bears
Wanting information that reveals the true state of the race exposed, and not suppressed, and challenging loaded or bias evidence, is essentially to placing accurate bets. And that does not imply support for one candidate or another.
Idiots like you can put people off posting and cost punters a lot of money.
So jog on.
Are you okay? My post wasn’t aimed at you. But thanks for your kind words.
I'm fine, thanks. Maybe dial back on the anonymous shotgun negs?
You're like Prince Harry accusing "someone" in the Royal Family of being a beastly racist and then never naming who it is.
Because it didn't happen.
I think he was referring to William Glenn. It's upsetting to some that William has become a remorseless implacable one-eyed Trump fan with a total refusal to brook opposition. They liked it much more when he was a remorseless implacable one-eyed Brussels fan with a total refusal to brook opposition.
There was a quote that ran along the lines of "I am not on anyones side because on the whole they aren't on my side" how I feel about political parties
Wanting information that reveals the true state of the race exposed, and not suppressed, and challenging loaded or bias evidence, is essentially to placing accurate bets. And that does not imply support for one candidate or another.
Idiots like you can put people off posting and cost punters a lot of money.
So jog on.
Are you okay? My post wasn’t aimed at you. But thanks for your kind words.
I'm fine, thanks. Maybe dial back on the anonymous shotgun negs?
You're like Prince Harry accusing "someone" in the Royal Family of being a beastly racist and then never naming who it is.
Because it didn't happen.
I think he was referring to William Glenn. It's upsetting to some that William has become a remorseless implacable one-eyed Trump fan with a total refusal to brook opposition. They liked it much more when he was a remorseless implacable one-eyed Brussels fan with a total refusal to brook opposition.
Remarkably he was a Trump fan and Brussels fan at the same time.
If the EU federalizes, it becomes a nation, and its more rabid fans simply nationalists. Different, but not so different.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
There seems to be a bit of an internal contradiction in your post.
Not saying I do either, I regularly get it wrong, but I know a bubble and group think when I see it.
Which bubble? Which groupthink?
SFAICS UK opinion, so far as the UK is interested, thinks that the POTUS election is very close (see the betting markets) and that the USA is politically and culturally divided and isn't good at the moment at finding common ground.
And that America's style of democracy is under strain because there isn't, as there is in the UK, a wholehearted sense of 'losers consent' to whatever the result will be.
The UK is short of people who will rationally explain and defend Trump's approach to things which belong to democracy (suchn as 6th January) without tortuous special pleading because from a UK cultural perspective it can't be done. This renders Trump and Trumpism particularly accountable for the problems USA democracy is in.
No bubble. No groupthink.
I'm afraid there is bubble and group think. It comes from anything good for Harris being megaphoned and echoed by about 43 different people on here, whilst anything good for Trump is sledged or met with ad hominem.
Does every single poster do this? No, and not you either to be fair, but I can think of only 3 or 4 who try to inject a bit of rational balance.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
There seems to be a bit of an internal contradiction in your post.
Not saying I do either, I regularly get it wrong, but I know a bubble and group think when I see it.
Which bubble? Which groupthink?
SFAICS UK opinion, so far as the UK is interested, thinks that the POTUS election is very close (see the betting markets) and that the USA is politically and culturally divided and isn't good at the moment at finding common ground.
And that America's style of democracy is under strain because there isn't, as there is in the UK, a wholehearted sense of 'losers consent' to whatever the result will be.
The UK is short of people who will rationally explain and defend Trump's approach to things which belong to democracy (suchn as 6th January) without tortuous special pleading because from a UK cultural perspective it can't be done. This renders Trump and Trumpism particularly accountable for the problems USA democracy is in.
No bubble. No groupthink.
Incoherent. UK thought "from a UK cultural perspective" about US affairs is a paradigm of bubbly groupthink.
You can be a lot more robust about Trump, he is a shit and a bully and a traitor and January 6 was wrong by absolute standards, bugger all to do with "cultural norms." BUT what is also wrong is 1. the assumption that KH is going to be a better president just because she is obviously (to an Englishman sitting in Tunbridge Wells) 1,000 x as nice as a person, and 2. the inability to understand that to say an outcome (like a trump presidency) is likely or possible is not the same thing as saying that the outcome is desirable. And 3. while I am at it, the inability to see, even after the event, that toppling Biden on the basis of his obvious senility was an ANTI Trump move.
This drug rape mass trial just gets worse as the case progresses. Now we hear that one of the men involved took drugs from the central man involved to do the same to his own wife.
I would warn everyone not to give too much weight to UK polling companies in the US election. Their record is not good over there. Ipsos is the possible exception. They can give trends but hoping they will predict the result is optimistic to say the least
I don't think Brits have a fucking clue about US politics, and we're not very good about it.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
There seems to be a bit of an internal contradiction in your post.
Not saying I do either, I regularly get it wrong, but I know a bubble and group think when I see it.
Which bubble? Which groupthink?
SFAICS UK opinion, so far as the UK is interested, thinks that the POTUS election is very close (see the betting markets) and that the USA is politically and culturally divided and isn't good at the moment at finding common ground.
And that America's style of democracy is under strain because there isn't, as there is in the UK, a wholehearted sense of 'losers consent' to whatever the result will be.
The UK is short of people who will rationally explain and defend Trump's approach to things which belong to democracy (suchn as 6th January) without tortuous special pleading because from a UK cultural perspective it can't be done. This renders Trump and Trumpism particularly accountable for the problems USA democracy is in.
No bubble. No groupthink.
I'm afraid there is bubble and group think. It comes from anything good for Harris being megaphoned and echoed by about 43 different people on here, whilst anything good for Trump is sledged or met with ad hominem.
Does every single poster do this? No, and not you either to be fair, but I can think of only 3 or 4 who try to inject a bit of rational balance.
We definitely need rational voices reminding us how close the US election is and that Trump can win.
Do we need irrational voices claiming Trump will be good for Ukraine?
We definitely need people to be told that the US election is close, and that Trump can win. Because that will drive up Democrat turnout. That is how Lib Dems campaign here, even in seats they know they are going to clearly win.
I’m tempted. I have a few spare days at the end of this trip and I was thinking - go south to the sun maybe Oregon (never been) or Northern California (likewise apart from Frisco)
But then I thought THE YUKON. Just the name alone
And all that brilliant gold rush history
Will be fucking cold and probably wet but at least it’s after mosquito season…
If you are driving it's a bloody long way. But there is something quite visceral about driving north. The towns get smaller and further apart. There's just distance. You need forward planning for food, fuel and the bathroom. Lakes get bigger, forests denser. Then suddenly, sparse, and alone for miles and miles. It's like approaching the inevitable. Colder, darker and lonelier. Like impending aging and death.
I’m tempted. I have a few spare days at the end of this trip and I was thinking - go south to the sun maybe Oregon (never been) or Northern California (likewise apart from Frisco)
But then I thought THE YUKON. Just the name alone
And all that brilliant gold rush history
Will be fucking cold and probably wet but at least it’s after mosquito season…
If you are driving it's a bloody long way. But there is something quite visceral about driving north. The towns get smaller and further apart. There's just distance. You need forward planning for food, fuel and the bathroom. Lakes get bigger, forests denser. Then suddenly, sparse, and alone for miles and miles. It's like approaching the inevitable. Colder, darker and lonelier. Like impending aging and death.
A country music trip down the Mississipi from Memphis, Tennessee, down to New Orleans is another, but kids, cash, grindstone etc.
Maybe one day. Think I'll retire about 62 whilst I can still do some stuff. None of this 70 or "oh, I might get bored if i don't work" shit.
I won't get bored. Will do stuff.
I retired at 65 and my wife and I went on an expedition ship to Antarctica, South Georgia and the Falklands with several landings on the peninsular and saw Shackletons grave in Grytviken, South Georgia
The seas were rough at times, but the scenery and awesome nature was a truely once in a lifetime event
I should day we are both excellent sailors no matter how rough the sea is
Wanting information that reveals the true state of the race exposed, and not suppressed, and challenging loaded or bias evidence, is essentially to placing accurate bets. And that does not imply support for one candidate or another.
Idiots like you can put people off posting and cost punters a lot of money.
So jog on.
Are you okay? My post wasn’t aimed at you. But thanks for your kind words.
I'm fine, thanks. Maybe dial back on the anonymous shotgun negs?
You're like Prince Harry accusing "someone" in the Royal Family of being a beastly racist and then never naming who it is.
Because it didn't happen.
I think he was referring to William Glenn. It's upsetting to some that William has become a remorseless implacable one-eyed Trump fan with a total refusal to brook opposition. They liked it much more when he was a remorseless implacable one-eyed Brussels fan with a total refusal to brook opposition.
There was a quote that ran along the lines of "I am not on anyones side because on the whole they aren't on my side" how I feel about political parties
That was Fangorn, the ent that the hobbits meet in the Two Towers.
Comments
Hope that works. James Kangasooriam pointing out that Trump leads by 25% on the economy and 72% on immigration and these are ishoos 1 and 2 with Usonians. JK is such an inept political commentator, he is credited with inventing the expression "red wall" in the UK.
Until today I imagined immigration was only an issue for those within two days hard riding of the Mexico border, what we might call the From Dusk Till Dawn belt (my picture of the US is in no way exclusively based on popular culture). Springfield Ohio turns out to be 1,300 miles from San Antonio. I don't see how Trump can have engineered the cat eating story to be about Ohio not Texas, but he sure got lucky.
This is in no way Trump fluffing, it's a celebration of my very profitable cash out this morning of a position built around KH at 11. Might nibble at some state markets later, but WH24 is a nailed on net win for me if not for KH.
As for the Sushi restaurant, if they don't want the insecurity of cash and the myriad of problems it brings, then good for them.
And as someone whose Conservatism was always more at the Caroline Noakes end of the spectrum, it's not obvious that Badenoch is much of an improvement on Jenrick from my point of view. (If, by some hideous twist of fate I had ended up a 2024 Conservative MP, I'd have gone Stride -> Cleverly.)
Though experiment. Had the first two eliminations been reversed, how would we be thinking about the race? I suspect we would now be talking about Cleverly advancing and Badenoch (and Jenrick) stalling.
We were warmer
Before Keir Starmer.
Things like Hollywood tweets, the Daily Show or celebrity endorsements would be like posting The Mash Report or Joe or Dua Lipa over here as representative of "the vibe".
They're not.
According to you Harris would support territorial concessions to Russia if Ukraine agrees (despite her being complicit in putting Ukraine in a weak negotiating position). It's hard to see any basis to condemn Trump, other than psychological projection.
- Obama
- Trump
- Biden
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/11/disciple-of-accused-drugged-and-raped-his-own-wife-french-court-told
Of course he’s trolling.
The markets say that the US election is wafer thin close; I think they are pricing Trump slightly too long but not much. We ought to know by now that nothing he can say about eating dogs or the merits of sexually assaulting women make a difference to his base. I think he will win.
Bitching, pontificating.
Haiku's are new, mind.
But I just checked. Apparently there are LOADS of black bears
I need me some bear spray!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/czxlv9ndvkdo
Stockport's assistant coach can't go to Real Madrid because of no work permit.
A senior City barrister who has represented Royal Bank of Scotland in the past has been accused of groping a junior female colleague under a table at a work dinner.
James Samuel O’Leary, 45, has been accused by the Bar Standards Board (BSB) of damaging the public’s trust in the profession over claims he stroked a legal assistant’s leg under the dinner table without consent.
Mr O’Leary, a member of elite commercial barristers’ chambers One Essex Court, appeared at a tribunal on Thursday over misconduct towards the legal assistant, referred to as Person A.
The alleged harassment took place at a busy, dimly-lit restaurant in December 2022, where Person A’s team were celebrating with Mr O’Leary and another barrister who were both hired by her City law firm to work on a case.
Person A, then 29, was the only woman present at the six-person dinner involving barristers and solicitors, a fact which she found “intimidating”.
The complainant initially thought Mr O’Leary, who sat next to her on the same bench, touched her leg by accident as the group had consumed several bottles of wine during the meal.
However, Mr O’Leary then allegedly placed and held his hand on her inner-upper thigh, with his fingers pointing downwards towards her groin.
Person A claimed she moved her body away from Mr O’Leary but found he was “persistent and would not stop”.
She also claimed Mr O’Leary, a graduate of the University of Oxford, repeatedly attempted to take her hand despite Person A placing a medium-sized bag on her lap.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/11/city-barrister-accused-groping-junior-female-colleague/
I’m tempted. I have a few spare days at the end of this trip and I was thinking - go south to the sun maybe Oregon (never been) or Northern California (likewise apart from Frisco)
But then I thought THE YUKON. Just the name alone
And all that brilliant gold rush history
Will be fucking cold and probably wet but at least it’s after mosquito season…
JD Vance on Fox News: We admire Taylor Swift's music, but I don't think most Americans are gonna be influenced by a billionaire celebrity who I think is fundamentally disconnected from the interests and the problems of most Americans
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1833948708360388977
Our tapas munching friends manage such things with rather more competence.
Wanting information that reveals the true state of the race exposed, and not suppressed, and challenging loaded or bias evidence, is essentially to placing accurate bets. And that does not imply support for one candidate or another.
Idiots like you can put people off posting and cost punters a lot of money.
So jog on.
https://www.watson.ch/international/wirtschaft/254669912-deutschland-will-keine-ruestungsgueter-mehr-aus-der-schweiz
North America is BIG
Sorry.
God appeared in a dream to a certain abbot. The abbot asked: 'Is it true that all rulers are appointed by heavenly command?' The answer was positive. 'Then, why, O Lord, did you send the wicked tyrant Phocas to rule the Roman people?' 'Because', came the stern reply, 'I could find no one worse."
source: "Humour, History and Politics in Late Antiquity and the Early Middle Ages", edited by Guy Halsall, p. 68
SFAICS UK opinion, so far as the UK is interested, thinks that the POTUS election is very close (see the betting markets) and that the USA is politically and culturally divided and isn't good at the moment at finding common ground.
And that America's style of democracy is under strain because there isn't, as there is in the UK, a wholehearted sense of 'losers consent' to whatever the result will be.
The UK is short of people who will rationally explain and defend Trump's approach to things which belong to democracy (suchn as 6th January) without tortuous special pleading because from a UK cultural perspective it can't be done. This renders Trump and Trumpism particularly accountable for the problems USA democracy is in.
No bubble. No groupthink.
Except harder. Because North America does not have the complex web of cheap air routes we have in Europe. We are blessed in Europe - so much interest and beauty is packed tightly together and all linked superbly by road and rail and air
Does every single poster do this? No, and not you either to be fair, but I can think of only 3 or 4 who try to inject a bit of rational balance.
But there is something quite visceral about driving north. The towns get smaller and further apart. There's just distance. You need forward planning for food, fuel and the bathroom. Lakes get bigger, forests denser. Then suddenly, sparse, and alone for miles and miles.
It's like approaching the inevitable. Colder, darker and lonelier.
Like impending aging and death.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1833879500435677512
SKS fans please explain
I'd imagine Frankfurt receives a footfall many times greater than Yellowstone and has to be significantly better connected. Because it's Frankfurt. Ditto London.
Yellowstone is breathtakingly lovely, but very few people have to go there for regular fortnightly meetings.
I stayed in an Ice Hotel in the Carpathian Mountains on my honeymoon. One of those things I'm glad I've done but am not in a tremendous hurry to repeat.
This will certainly help Harris.
You're like Prince Harry accusing "someone" in the Royal Family of being a beastly racist and then never naming who it is.
Because it didn't happen.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnipeg–Churchill_train
Do we need irrational voices claiming Trump will be good for Ukraine?
You can be a lot more robust about Trump, he is a shit and a bully and a traitor and January 6 was wrong by absolute standards, bugger all to do with "cultural norms." BUT what is also wrong is 1. the assumption that KH is going to be a better president just because she is obviously (to an Englishman sitting in Tunbridge Wells) 1,000 x as nice as a person, and 2. the inability to understand that to say an outcome (like a trump presidency) is likely or possible is not the same thing as saying that the outcome is desirable. And 3. while I am at it, the inability to see, even after the event, that toppling Biden on the basis of his obvious senility was an ANTI Trump move.
Abraham: Do you bite your thumb at us, sir?
Sampson: I do bite my thumb, sir.
Abraham: Do you bite your thumb at us, sir?
Sampson (to Gregory): Is the law of our side if I say ay?
Gregory: No.
Sampson: No, sir, I do not bite my thumb at you sir; but I bite my thumb, sir.
I think I was 7 when I last encountered someone who, also 7, used "bedwetter" as an insult. Coincidentally he typically smelled of stale urine, but I have never been one to extrapolate...
ETA but this is meant to be just a warm up for the horrors of the budget unless you mean budget 2027
Because that will drive up Democrat turnout.
That is how Lib Dems campaign here, even in seats they know they are going to clearly win.
"Nurse! Donald and Elon are out of bed again."
"Madder than Mad Jack McMad"
A country music trip down the Mississipi from Memphis, Tennessee, down to New Orleans is another, but kids, cash, grindstone etc.
Maybe one day. Think I'll retire about 62 whilst I can still do some stuff. None of this 70 or "oh, I might get bored if i don't work" shit.
I won't get bored. Will do stuff.
The seas were rough at times, but the scenery and awesome nature was a truely once in a lifetime event
I should day we are both excellent sailors no matter how rough the sea is