How Betfair has reacted to the second round – politicalbetting.com
How Betfair has reacted to the second round – politicalbetting.com
My logic is most of Mel Stride’s support will go to Tugendhat and Cleverly which could put Badenoch out in the next round (which could happen if Stride’s supports splits evenly between Cleverly and Tugendhat).
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That one actually might be competitive with the members. The baseline is Badenoch will edge it but I'm not sure if conference/stump speeches don't pan-out.
Even Rishi ran Truss closer than expected in 2022.
Seems bonkers but there it is, no natural predators - no great whites, bull sharks, killer whales, you name it. Don't predate the manatee.
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50489-yougov-first-mrp-estimates-of-the-2024-presidential-election
This is the first release of our model estimating 2024 presidential election votes in every state, based upon nearly 100,000 recent interviews of registered voters. We show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% just before their first debate. However, the race will be determined by who wins the most electoral votes, not popular votes, and, as it currently stands, the race is a toss-up.
We have Harris leading in 22 states and Washington D.C. with 256 electoral votes and Trump leading in 25 states with 235 electoral vote.
State Harris Trump Other MoE Number polled
Texas 46 51 3 ±2.7 6,899
Florida 46 52 2 ±2 7,726
Maine's 2nd District 47 50 3 ±3 266
Arizona 48 49 3 ±2.3 2,625
North Carolina 48 50 2 ±1.8 3,157
Georgia 49 49 2 ±2.4 2,957
Pennsylvania 49 48 3 ±1.8 4,858
Nebraska's 2nd District 50 49 1 ±3.1 196
Wisconsin 51 47 2 ±1.7 2,003
Nevada 51 47 3 ±3.5 1,158
Michigan 51 46 3 ±2.6 3,075
Minnesota 52 45 3 ±1.9 1,782
However, Labour have made a political mistake over WFA and it was unnecessary
Apparently Reeves is looking at pension tax relief and reducing it to a flat 20%, and also restricting the cash amount able to be withdrawn to £100,000, would in this one measure raise 15-20 billion
Reeves could, and maybe should, have announced means testing of the WFA at the same time and argued that next years pension increase will be more than £300 that would be lost in November 25 thereby avoiding the furore that has accompanied the announcement
https://x.com/alx/status/1833856702577271048
Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, JD Vance, Chuck Schumer and Michael Bloomberg at Ground Zero this morning on the anniversary of 9/11
We'll see.
There are two in there I would be slightly sceptical of.
Firstly, I'm not sure I believe Harris is four points ahead in Nevada. I think that is probably the single most likely state to flip in the US, given its proximity to the border, and the midterm results.
Secondly, while I think the Arizona underlyings are probably right (or even understate Trump slightly), I think he will suffer from two factors. Firstly, the presence of Lake as the Senatorial candidate is not going to encourage moderate Republicans to trek to the polls (which would have almost certainly gifted Trump a couple of extra percent). Secondly, the abortion referendum there - if other states are a guide - is likely to motivate young people and women to go the polls. That's not great news for Trump there either. Without the referendum or Lake, I think Trump would have won Arizona comfortably. As it is, I would make Harris the narrow favourite.
I would say I have no idea how Harris will govern, but not being Trump is enough just as not being conservative was in July
Jon Stewart’s utter evisceration of a half-empty Congressional Committee, when talking about the 9/11 first responders and their treatment by the Federal government.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=_uYpDC3SRpM
The spam trap is getting itchy.
First few times it might have been amusing, for the three hundred thousandth time, less so.
I have to relate the following two observations today.
1) I had a haircut and the barber is a cash only establishment (and no it's not on St. James's; and
2) I walked past Sushi Dog which had a large notice in the window proclaiming they were "cashless".
I think we all know what that means.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/01/james-cleverly-tory-mp-braintree-marijuana-online-porn
I don't think it's a mistake. They will have been hyper aware of the histrionics that accompany any change to pensioner benefits and taxation - these people spend all day on Facebook and the comments section of "West Midlands Live". Frankly, I would rip the plaster off and dump everything into this budget - roll NICs into income tax, abolish triple lock, social care reform, inheritance tax etc etc.
I bloody love Sushi Dogs, that said.
I would really like to think that she was too sensible to be a believer but she did come from that time/caste which holds the CoE and its beliefs as very important.
I reckon 80% chance of Jenrick/Cleverly, 15% chance of Jenrick/Tugendhat, 5% chance of Badenoch against someone.
Truss certainly had faith in something, but I'm not sure it was anything to do with religion.
The NYT is fact checking Harris, it sometimes concludes she has embellished reality. This is taken on a parity with Trump speaking absolute and utter fiction with no basis in fact.
Despite the madness and the improved economic statistics, the reality of lived lives over the last three and a half years will do for Harris. The fact Biden has been clearing up Trump excrement counts for nought. Blue collar Pennsylvanians believe they were better off under Trump.
But why are we surprised? You would all vote for Boris Johnson again given the opportunity.
Are there a lot of methodists in Lincs? No idea which flavour of divine being they support but presumably there still is one and it's still weird.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/16/us/florida-starving-manatee-feeding-program-trnd-scn/index.html
On the lack of predators - I do wonder about an evolutionary timescale, and wehther some now extinct predator used to dine on them. And that of course omits Homo sapiens.
However things like saltwater crocodiles do like to dine on juvenile dugongs if the occasion arises.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sermon_on_the_Mound
https://epwortholdrectory.org.uk/
Some of the locals weren't too keen on odd religious types so many left for the US (including on the Mayflower), so there are quite a few visitors from across the pond doing tours of Pilgrim sites.
https://www.theosthinktank.co.uk/comment/2015/07/22/god-and-mrs-thatcher
(The Co-Op as a threat to small shopkeepers thing hadn't occurred to me before... how times change.)
And if it is a mother bear with one or more cubs, retreat slowly and cautiously.
So heed Jim Miller's sage advice!
If they are going to do it, of course.
Suspect they are floating this to see the reaction and they may just tweak it to an 20% discount or not go the whole way, or just for new households.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/11/bluestreak-cleaner-wrasse-fish-awareness-body-osaka-japan/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/11/wild-otters-maul-jogger-harun-tanjung-aru-malaysia/
What they should do is make Council tax payable by each and every person in the property.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/603e0c208fa8f577cb88feee/Local_Authority_Council_Tax_base_England_2020_-_Statistical_Release_REVISED.pdf
https://x.com/Brian_KA/status/1833861608314946016
Briefly, a baby was born with Down's syndrome in Indiana. As sometimes happens with that syndrome, the baby was unable to feed normally. A simple operation could have fixed the problem, but the parents refused to have it done. At least one pro-life couple with a Downs sydrome child of their own, offered to adopt the baby. The parents refused that, too, and the baby was allowed to starve to death.
Nat Hentoff was a pro-life "Jewish atheist", who, before he became openly pro-life, was best known for his strong civil liberties positions, and his coverage of jazz. (I have one of his books, which has the wonderful title: "Free Speech for Me-- But Not for Thee".)
#New General Election poll
🔴 Trump 45%
🔵 Harris 45%
Last poll - 🔵 Harris +2
Economist #B - 1462 RV - 9/10
E
M
I
There's something coming which could in theory be pre-mitigated, isn't there? Aside from leaving the country.
I can see that that will be a long-term increase in revenue (higher annuity from more still in the fund -> more annual taxes), but that does not seem to generate an immediate benefit.
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1833879500435677512?t=lFOqL2WqdJNpIVE0NLUCkA&s=19
Sorry to have missed your delayed reply @Dura_Ace, also apologies to spelling pedants for not being able to spell livid.
The reason why is:
a) I really enjoy your replies
b) The noise. They sound lovely (If I ever buy one I won't buy one with a Rover engine, it will be a Ford or Chevy, but that also means I might die quicker)
c) The looks
You have to understand the reason for buying a Cobra, GT40 or Panther is not for the pleasure in driving it but for the reaction of others which is usually WTF is that? I could always go for a Panther DeVille, but I would be concerned you might have an aneurysm. I saw one for sale the other day.
You will be relieved to know most of my time is spent looking and not buying.
PS what you posted has gone. What was it?
Coincidence?
You decide ...
It's quite substantial - £138m since 2016, by this number:
https://www.coop.co.uk/communities
There have been a few smallish good news stories (the latest renewables auction for example, and resolving the junior doctors dispute) but they’ve seemed very unsurefooted about even those.
They need to smile a bit more.
Even as a flag to scare people it's a crap plan.
Second and equally obvious point, most of the irritation with the palpably senile Biden was inspired by hatred of *Trump* and the desire for Biden to take himself out of the picture and let Harris do what she did last night. To defend Biden was to enable Trump.
Thirdly it is legitimate to consider the effects of Trump's utterances without thereby endorsing them, just as it is legitimate to study Mein Kampf. Trump is in some sense nuts and getting worse, but he is a long way from senile. The cat eating claim is batshit, but that is not the point. The point is, will it be believable to, and influence, people who are themselves batshit enough to even consider voting for Trump? And it might.
Not that any of this matters. Most things don't. It's less than two months since Trump was nearly assassinated. At the time this was claimed to be epoch making, now you had probably forgotten about it till I reminded you. This time next week the debate will be invisible in the rearview mirror. The election remains too close to call.
I don't know what the law is in the USA on treatment or withholding of treatment but in the UK there is not absolute authority for parents. They can be overruled by staff and courts if thought to not be acting in the child's best interests. Usually this makes the news when the parents want treatment that the staff and courts think will only bring needless suffering.
Deciding how much intervention is appropriate for severely handicapped neonates is a medical and ethical minefield
The country threw out the conservatives decisively in July and need hope and optimism, not constant doom and gloom