I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
Labour will stand or fall on their record, and rightly so. My point is the likes of Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph are damning the current Government if they do or if they don't which is so far absurd. Take the smoking ban. Great when it was Rishi's idea, not so great now.
I welcome this government to be held to account when, for good or ill, they have done something.
But also remember Conservative Governments successfully dined out on Liam Byrne's letter for over a decade.
These are entirely different and far more volatile times. And Labour only got 34% on a pitiful turnout
And what the right is trying to do now is exactly what it should be doing: framing Starner in his first 100 days in a negative light that he will never escape. As the depressing nasal voiced puritan loser who wants your nan to freeze to death so he can put more Afghans in hotels as he shutters all the pubs so you can’t even drown your sorrows
It’s working very well. Not least because Starmer seems clueless about PR and is handing them all this material
Interesting comparison: Foot got 8.5m votes in 1983, Starmer 9.7m this year. But the population was 56m then compared to 68m today, 20% higher, and Starmer's vote was only 14% higher. To keep pace with Foot, Starmer needed 10.3m votes.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
I thought you'd flounced for ever.
Are you, to quote Take That, "Back for Good"?
Welcome back.
I said I’d come back when travelling. I am in the lovely Kotor Bay, Montenegro. Am moving on tomorrow to mysterious parts….
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
In 1981 Brian Tilsey was arrested for stopping someone robbing the petrol station he worked at.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
I think we're conflating two questions: Is the Starmer government any good? Will the Conservatives win the next election?
I note most of those most negative about Starmer thought Johnson pretty good back in the day, so forgive me if I don't really buy into the analysis. But they're right in a way. Johnson did win a substantial victory in 2019.
The Conservatives may win in 2029. There's no data backed reason to believe they will at this point, but anything is possible. Right now we don't know. I think English council elections in May will be the first meaningful checkpoint. How well will the Conservatives do, following the dismal results of recent years?
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
There's another chunky real terms increase in the state pension to announce this autumn (wages > inflation), which a competent government ought to be able to spin to take away a lot of the political sting.
And the reality is that, real-terms, pensioners will have more money this year than last. It's just that some of it won't come with a "winter fuel" label attached.
You really are doolally, not just pretending.
Hi Malc!
Isn't it the case that:
1. The state pension is less stingy now than it has been for decades?
2. That the action of the triple lock gave it a hefty boost above inflation last year?
3. That the same triple lock will do something similar this year?
4. That points 2 and 3 are a bit more than the Great Winter Fuel Snatch?
Happy to be put right on those points. But I can't help remembering that a lot of current pensioners supported the governments of the 1980s who acted to make the pensions of their parents and grandparents meaner.
1. Still stingy and lowest in developed world by a big margin 2. Last year was avove inflation but far from compensated for the past 3. Again will help a bit but still the worst as per 1. by a mile, even Spain and Italy are miles above UK 4. But well below the increase in food , energy , water , council tax etc
Thanks @Andy_Cooke an excellent article and a bit different from the norm and I agree with you the LD figures are different to what I would have suspected. Great to see an article posting new data and analysis from what we normally see.
The LD and Green seats and figures show how parties can win with passionate supporter led traditional campaigning. Notably the turnout was higher in LD and Green target seats too.
It shows that old style campaigning works with footsloggers on the ground and poster boards up.
Shockhat Adam did the same in Leicester. There were posters and street activists all over Evington. I didn't think he could do it, but he did. He has got stuck into the constituency work too and is going to be tough to unseat.
There were similar elements for Lee Anderson - he had built more on his previous strong personal vote as a Councillor than I expected.
Probably does, but they are all on holiday. Come back next month when the non political obsessives are paying attention
Is there also a temperamental difference between journalists on the right and left?
Left wing journalists are never happy, even when their side is on top. Right wingers are much more prone to showing loyalty to the leadership, even when it isn't merited.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
They get beaten up and paralyzed and the employer is liable for not providing a safe system of work
Or worse, the shoplifter gets smashed up and takes the firm to court.
You have to rock solid evidence for shoplifting - Malcolm's example above wouldn't cut it as you need to witness them bagging something, never take your eyes off them, and witness them leave the shop. Even then, how do you prove it wasn't a mistake?
you mean an eye witness seeing them stuff their bag and then caught with out paying ay they try to go out the door , I saw the toerag filling his bag. Skanky looking git as well.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
That’s already happening in a number of cities the US.
Clearly for my local Co-op it HAS become material to overall turnover.
IMO this really reflects the strategic history of the previous Government on any number of areas. Do nothing do nothing do nothing, until inattention for short-termist reasons allows a Wild West to develop. Then rush around like a horny drunk couple desperately hunting a condom, when the problem will be 10x as difficult to fix as to prevent previously, followed by throwing some money around and random wibble denying any responsibility / blaming somebody else.
Here are the numbers on police spending, which tell the story:
The police numbers tell the same story - starting at 147k FTE then reduce to 124k or so in the middle, and recovering in the last 3 or 4 years. Followed by dishonest-by-omission statements from Rishi Sunak or whoever is the latest one that "look we increased police numbers", when the numbers are up by a fraction whilst the population is up by 6 or 7%.
Mr. Eagles, slightly surprised by the timing but not the announcement. Wolff clearly thinks he's VerstappenV2, or at least doesn't want to risk someone else getting him. Mildly surprised he wasn't available for Williams this year, just to learn the basics.
I am just glad they haven't signed Verstappen or I would have give up my Mercedes and boycott them for as long as the Dutch shunt drove for them.
I haven't drunk Red Bull since Verstappen started driving for them.
To be fair I have only ever drunk Red Bull once in my life and that was in 2002.
Red Bull (the drink) is just a way to spoil good vodka.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
They get beaten up and paralyzed and the employer is liable for not providing a safe system of work
Or worse, the shoplifter gets smashed up and takes the firm to court.
You have to rock solid evidence for shoplifting - Malcolm's example above wouldn't cut it as you need to witness them bagging something, never take your eyes off them, and witness them leave the shop. Even then, how do you prove it wasn't a mistake?
you mean an eye witness seeing them stuff their bag and then caught with out paying ay they try to go out the door , I saw the toerag filling his bag. Skanky looking git as well.
I know, I know; but just appreciate that the hands of the staff are tied.
There is nothing more satisfying than someone on minimum wage tackling a shoplifter in the street and getting the goods back. Most people are up for a foot race and a minor scrap, but there is always a risk of a blade.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
What does this say about trust? It says that for about 50 years, from 1960 to 2010, shops felt they could trust 99.9% of customers not to shoplift their goods.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
40 years ago I had a runin with some store detectives who accused me of shoplifting
When they didn't find any evidence (it didn't exist) they claimed I had passed the goods off to an accomplice, who they also couldn't identify (they didn't exist either)
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
I thought you'd flounced for ever.
Are you, to quote Take That, "Back for Good"?
Welcome back.
I said I’d come back when travelling. I am in the lovely Kotor Bay, Montenegro. Am moving on tomorrow to mysterious parts….
Well I for one am happy to see you again. But please remember the promise you made - plenty of travel pics and no attempts at "substantial political commentary". What a win/win that would be if we can make it happen.
Although Labour definitely could lose its majority at the next election, I don't think the chart particularly supports that hypothesis. Labour has 40 or so seats with less than 35%, or one tenth of the 411 total.
Meanwhile on a similar cough the Conservatives also have 40 or so seats with less than 35%, making up a third of its 121 total.
There is already a 3% swing from Labour to Tory since the general election on the new BMG poll for the Independent last night
Do you have full figures for that poll, because I think it implies an increase for Reform, which doesn't really help the Tories even if it's at the expense of Labour?
Good morning
Reform on 19 % (+1) but @HYUFD will respond by saying conservative and reform are on 45% !!!
Tories also up to 26%
I know - I posted the poll last night with this article
Mr. Eagles, slightly surprised by the timing but not the announcement. Wolff clearly thinks he's VerstappenV2, or at least doesn't want to risk someone else getting him. Mildly surprised he wasn't available for Williams this year, just to learn the basics.
I am just glad they haven't signed Verstappen or I would have give up my Mercedes and boycott them for as long as the Dutch shunt drove for them.
I haven't drunk Red Bull since Verstappen started driving for them.
To be fair I have only ever drunk Red Bull once in my life and that was in 2002.
Red Bull (the drink) is just a way to spoil good vodka.
Red Bull is just a way to spoil the cheap vodka.
The good vodka, one doesn’t drink with anything more than an ice cube, as with a good whisky.
The circumstances that aligned at produce a Labour landslide on a 33% vote share will not be repeated in 2029...
Maybe a CON MASSIVE MAJORITY on 32% instead? 👍
Possible, I'm sure, but difficult. Those Lib Dems are going to be a bugger to shift- they can shout about opposing the government just as well, and they are probably better than the Conservatives at the necessary street-fighting. (See 2010 for an example; Labour did badly but the Lib Dems did fine.)
As long as those seats are off the table, even a brilliant Conservative performance elsewhere tops out at about 300 seats.
Strategically, the Lib Dems have got the easiest game of all next time- mop up some more Nice seats that currently vote Conservative. (Don't like the government but think X is horrid? Vote for us!) The Conservatives have got to do some mixture of winning Reformers, blue-tinged LibDem voters, and classic suburban swingers. Even when the Starmer government screws up, that won't be an easy mix.
My sorta analysis. Conservatives have few levers to engineer a route back to power. They are dependent on Reform imploding, which to be fair is likely given the track record of parties connected with Farage
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
I thought you'd flounced for ever.
Are you, to quote Take That, "Back for Good"?
Welcome back.
I said I’d come back when travelling. I am in the lovely Kotor Bay, Montenegro. Am moving on tomorrow to mysterious parts….
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
What does this say about trust? It says that for about 50 years, from 1960 to 2010, shops felt they could trust 99.9% of customers not to shoplift their goods.
Perhaps it's partly temptation as well as trust. It's much more tempting, and much easier, to 'cheat' a self-service checkout machine than it is to cheat a real person at the till.
I can't help thinking that in their efforts to cut staffing costs many of the supermarkets, small and large, have encouraged the potential shoplifters to become actual shoplifters.
You can no more predict the outcome of the next election today than you could in Jan 2020 or June 2015.
The curious thing about the current administration, and something that opponents might consider, is that the current tone is deliberate.
“Fixing the foundations” feels like the first part in a three act play, echoing the strategy that took Starmer to number 10, when everyone thought it impossible.
It’s definitely an unconventional start to an administration, but there’s definitely a plan at work. Smells a lot like expectation management to me.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
I thought you'd flounced for ever.
Are you, to quote Take That, "Back for Good"?
Welcome back.
I said I’d come back when travelling. I am in the lovely Kotor Bay, Montenegro. Am moving on tomorrow to mysterious parts….
It really is a beautiful part of the world
Kotor is famed for its huge population of cats, I believe …
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
What does this say about trust? It says that for about 50 years, from 1960 to 2010, shops felt they could trust 99.9% of customers not to shoplift their goods.
It's never been that high, I think. For me, this is the first stark local impact I have seen. There has been a noticeable increase to a probably still lowish level of motorcycle ASB, teenagers hooning around masked up - probably drugs - on e-mopeds etc, which is a similar neglect issue (Govt were lobbied a long time ago about increasing e-motorbike ASB and completely ignored it, and now we have a wider 'criminality is OK' assumption).
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
I thought you'd flounced for ever.
Are you, to quote Take That, "Back for Good"?
Welcome back.
I said I’d come back when travelling. I am in the lovely Kotor Bay, Montenegro. Am moving on tomorrow to mysterious parts….
Well I for one am happy to see you again. But please remember the promise you made - plenty of travel pics and no attempts at "substantial political commentary". What a win/win that would be if we can make it happen.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
I thought you'd flounced for ever.
Are you, to quote Take That, "Back for Good"?
Welcome back.
I said I’d come back when travelling. I am in the lovely Kotor Bay, Montenegro. Am moving on tomorrow to mysterious parts….
It really is a beautiful part of the world
Kotor is famed for its huge population of cats, I believe …
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
That’s already happening in a number of cities the US.
under employed 20 and 30 somethings in US cities do their weekly shops at food banks these days
I would just say that last night's BMG poll published in the I newspaper should be a wake up call to Labour
It is clear that the public are not buying into all the doom and gloom plus tax rises, and add in Reeves withdrawal of 'Grandma's' winter fuel allowance virtually on the day it was announced already well paid train drivers would receive inflation busting pay rises, then it is understandable
The conservatives need a new leader which seems a long time away to November but Sunak is well placed to take on Reeves autumn statement on Halloween
Indeed Sunak and Hunts period in office laid the foundations for the improving economy as recently seen
You can no more predict the outcome of the next election today than you could in Jan 2020 or June 2015.
The curious thing about the current administration, and something that opponents might consider, is that the current tone is deliberate.
“Fixing the foundations” feels like the first part in a three act play, echoing the strategy that took Starmer to number 10, when everyone thought it impossible.
It’s definitely an unconventional start to an administration, but there’s definitely a plan at work. Smells a lot like expectation management to me.
It's not dissimilar from Cameron in 2010. The goal is to bed "fixing the inherited mess" deeply enough to pay dividends in future elections.
You can no more predict the outcome of the next election today than you could in Jan 2020 or June 2015.
The curious thing about the current administration, and something that opponents might consider, is that the current tone is deliberate.
“Fixing the foundations” feels like the first part in a three act play, echoing the strategy that took Starmer to number 10, when everyone thought it impossible.
It’s definitely an unconventional start to an administration, but there’s definitely a plan at work. Smells a lot like expectation management to me.
Agree, except that I'm not sure it is that unconventional. Early Thatcher was really good at it. One of the first signs that her government was freeing itself from the bounds of political reality was when Lawson cut taxes in 1988. Coalition Cameron used a variation on the same playbook. That was only a decade ago, for all that it feels much further back in history.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
I think we're conflating two questions: Is the Starmer government any good? Will the Conservatives win the next election?
I note most of those most negative about Starmer thought Johnson pretty good back in the day, so forgive me if I don't really buy into the analysis. But they're right in a way. Johnson did win a substantial victory in 2019.
The Conservatives may win in 2029. There's no data backed reason to believe they will at this point, but anything is possible. Right now we don't know. I think English council elections in May will be the first meaningful checkpoint. How well will the Conservatives do, following the dismal results of recent years?
In 2025 the Conservatives have to hold their own, more or less. They really have to take everything going in 2026 and 2027
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
Although Labour definitely could lose its majority at the next election, I don't think the chart particularly supports that hypothesis. Labour has 40 or so seats with less than 35%, or one tenth of the 411 total.
Meanwhile on a similar cough the Conservatives also have 40 or so seats with less than 35%, making up a third of its 121 total.
There is already a 3% swing from Labour to Tory since the general election on the new BMG poll for the Independent last night
Do you have full figures for that poll, because I think it implies an increase for Reform, which doesn't really help the Tories even if it's at the expense of Labour?
Good morning
Reform on 19 % (+1) but @HYUFD will respond by saying conservative and reform are on 45% !!!
Tories also up to 26%
I know - I posted the poll last night with this article
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
I think we're conflating two questions: Is the Starmer government any good? Will the Conservatives win the next election?
I note most of those most negative about Starmer thought Johnson pretty good back in the day, so forgive me if I don't really buy into the analysis. But they're right in a way. Johnson did win a substantial victory in 2019.
The Conservatives may win in 2029. There's no data backed reason to believe they will at this point, but anything is possible. Right now we don't know. I think English council elections in May will be the first meaningful checkpoint. How well will the Conservatives do, following the dismal results of recent years?
In 2025 the Conservatives have to hold their own, more or less. They really have to take everything going in 2026 and 2027
The catch in 2025 is that the Conservatives swept the board in 2021, thanks to a combination of Peak Vaccine Boris and the seats being up for election mostly being shire counties.
The main upside I can see for the Conservatives is Cambs/Peterborough Mayor. Dr Nick is probably doomed there anyway, unless the government changes the system from FPTP. Otherwise, the likely story is Cons down, Libs up.
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
45% looks more like his ceiling to me than his floor.
Numerous gaffes would have killed any other campaign by any other candidate stone dead, several times over
And yet nearly half of America still wants this guy
I think that is a symptom of something, but I am not sure what, exactly
Silos in society.
Cable news and social media make it harder for anyone to hear the full story. Worse than that, providers thrive by being biased.
And the sort of meeting places where people were kind of forced to interact with people unlike them (broad churches and neighbourhood bars, say) have been replaced by people travelling to be with people like them. A lot of Trump's evangelical Christian support is made of evangelicals who don't actually go to church.
And whilst life is simpler and more congenial for all of us when we do that, it has horrible conseqences.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
I thought you'd flounced for ever.
Are you, to quote Take That, "Back for Good"?
Welcome back.
I said I’d come back when travelling. I am in the lovely Kotor Bay, Montenegro. Am moving on tomorrow to mysterious parts….
It appears the Oasis ticketing experience is going about as well as expected...
What’s the problem? I managed to get hold of 2000 tickets for 10 different venues. Unfortunately, my plans have changed and I can no longer attend. I have said tickets available for only £1,500 each. First come first served.
I would just say that last night's BMG poll published in the I newspaper should be a wake up call to Labour
It is clear that the public are not buying into all the doom and gloom plus tax rises, and add in Reeves withdrawal of 'Grandma's' winter fuel allowance virtually on the day it was announced already well paid train drivers would receive inflation busting pay rises, then it is understandable
The conservatives need a new leader which seems a long time away to November but Sunak is well placed to take on Reeves autumn statement on Halloween
Indeed Sunak and Hunts period in office laid the foundations for the improving economy as recently seen
You've bought into the "golden legacy" narrative. It was widely accepted that a justification for Sunak to go early was inflation would uptick due to the increase in the energy cap amongst other bits of anticipated economic bad news.
Trump's continued popularity (over the Dems) despite being as mad as the March Hare could be a warning to Labour. Fixing the post -pandemic economy won't be popular.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
Your mistake here is seeing Reform as right wing. Farage and Tice might be, the voters much less so. They certainly don’t want your Darwinist version of capitalism.
If I lived in Scotland I would vote SNP because finally there is a party that will focus on the middle classes and stop pandering to the working classes.
Swinney warns SNP: Win back middle class or face disaster
Secret recording from private session reveals stark message from the first minister to party activists at Edinburgh conference
John Swinney has warned SNP activists they must win back Scotland’s middle class or face another election drubbing, according to a leaked recording which lays bare the crisis facing the party.
In a secret recording from a private session of the SNP conference, members pored over the disastrous general election in which the party lost 39 MPs.
They were presented with internal polling analysis that showed swathes of voters switch to Labour once they begin earning an annual salary of more than “the low £20,000s”.
I think that shows how little extra tax people want to pay, once you hit £25,689 the Scottish income tax rate is 21%...
Now it's only £180 extra a year if you earn £43,660 but it adds up.
I'm not sure about that - the analysis so far suggests it doesn't have much of an effect on Scottish taxpayers.
That doesn't mean there isn't a big risk. Part of the tolerance that someone like me has for higher taxes is the social contract I have with my country. In other words - universal benefits.
That's the NHS, free prescriptions, free university tuition, free bus passes, cheap rail tickets to Glasgow, free school meals and so on. These policies are grossly inefficient for things like child poverty, but of significant benefit to middle class home owners like me. As the fiscal position tightens, the SNP and Labour, to a lesser extent, will find themselves trapped in a choice between these two principles.
Not grossly inefficient. I recall that they crunched the prescription and bus pass figures and found that the cost of means testing took up a lot of the difference between doing it free for all and means testing. And the health and economic benefits more than paid for the remaining margin.
Also, the SNP - it bears repeating as a few on PB seem not to grasp that (not necessarily including eek) - is a minority government, so it's not just the SNP maintaining those budget decisions (though Slab usually refused to vote for the budget on the Bain Principle, even if it was what they wanted).
I have come to the depressing conclusion that Scotland needs a bracing dose of SLab at Holyrood where Scottish voters will be able to see first hand the collision of calls from dimwitted hypocrites like Sarwar continuously demanding more social spending & public sector wage increases with blaming the SG for more social spending & public sector wage increases when Reeves & co cut funding. If they're doing it with the diddy parties in the passenger seats, all the better.
It would be interesting to see if Slab achieve a majority government - which [edit] they made almost impossible, back in 1997, when fiddling the electoral system with their LD chums. If not, then who do they do it with? MInority? SGs? SLDs (run by a car enthusiast)? Tories? Reform?
Edit: assumes SKS doesn't pish so much in their porridge that the lefties go off and restart the Scottish Socialists. Not sure myself that this will happen - but remember it was the Poll Tax that got Tommy Sheridan & Co up and running.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
That’s already happening in America. Stores where almost anything of value is locked in vitrines
Take away the rule of law, and we can't have nice things.
Yes, and with the right tacitly supporting the looters and rioters it isn't going to get better.
If there's one thing that Starmer gets it is the Criminal Justice system, so hopefully we can get away from the piss poor policing and justice system of the last decade.
I notice that someone said Beetleguese again, so catch you later.
If I lived in Scotland I would vote SNP because finally there is a party that will focus on the middle classes and stop pandering to the working classes.
Swinney warns SNP: Win back middle class or face disaster
Secret recording from private session reveals stark message from the first minister to party activists at Edinburgh conference
John Swinney has warned SNP activists they must win back Scotland’s middle class or face another election drubbing, according to a leaked recording which lays bare the crisis facing the party.
In a secret recording from a private session of the SNP conference, members pored over the disastrous general election in which the party lost 39 MPs.
They were presented with internal polling analysis that showed swathes of voters switch to Labour once they begin earning an annual salary of more than “the low £20,000s”.
I think that shows how little extra tax people want to pay, once you hit £25,689 the Scottish income tax rate is 21%...
Now it's only £180 extra a year if you earn £43,660 but it adds up.
I'm not sure about that - the analysis so far suggests it doesn't have much of an effect on Scottish taxpayers.
That doesn't mean there isn't a big risk. Part of the tolerance that someone like me has for higher taxes is the social contract I have with my country. In other words - universal benefits.
That's the NHS, free prescriptions, free university tuition, free bus passes, cheap rail tickets to Glasgow, free school meals and so on. These policies are grossly inefficient for things like child poverty, but of significant benefit to middle class home owners like me. As the fiscal position tightens, the SNP and Labour, to a lesser extent, will find themselves trapped in a choice between these two principles.
Not grossly inefficient. I recall that they crunched the prescription and bus pass figures and found that the cost of means testing took up a lot of the difference between doing it free for all and means testing. And the health and economic benefits more than paid for the remaining margin.
Also, the SNP - it bears repeating as a few on PB seem not to grasp that (not necessarily including eek) - is a minority government, so it's not just the SNP maintaining those budget decisions (though Slab usually refused to vote for the budget on the Bain Principle, even if it was what they wanted).
I have come to the depressing conclusion that Scotland needs a bracing dose of SLab at Holyrood where Scottish voters will be able to see first hand the collision of calls from dimwitted hypocrites like Sarwar continuously demanding more social spending & public sector wage increases with blaming the SG for more social spending & public sector wage increases when Reeves & co cut funding. If they're doing it with the diddy parties in the passenger seats, all the better.
It would be interesting to see if Slab achieve a majority government - after they made almost impossible, back in 1997, when fiddling the electoral system with their LD chums. If not, then who do they do it with? MInority? SGs? SLDs (run by a car enthusiast)? Tories? Reform?
I expect a Lab Lib Green government, in which case, I will be looking forward to the toxic Greens destroying Scottish Labour.
If I lived in Scotland I would vote SNP because finally there is a party that will focus on the middle classes and stop pandering to the working classes.
Swinney warns SNP: Win back middle class or face disaster
Secret recording from private session reveals stark message from the first minister to party activists at Edinburgh conference
John Swinney has warned SNP activists they must win back Scotland’s middle class or face another election drubbing, according to a leaked recording which lays bare the crisis facing the party.
In a secret recording from a private session of the SNP conference, members pored over the disastrous general election in which the party lost 39 MPs.
They were presented with internal polling analysis that showed swathes of voters switch to Labour once they begin earning an annual salary of more than “the low £20,000s”.
I think that shows how little extra tax people want to pay, once you hit £25,689 the Scottish income tax rate is 21%...
Now it's only £180 extra a year if you earn £43,660 but it adds up.
I'm not sure about that - the analysis so far suggests it doesn't have much of an effect on Scottish taxpayers.
That doesn't mean there isn't a big risk. Part of the tolerance that someone like me has for higher taxes is the social contract I have with my country. In other words - universal benefits.
That's the NHS, free prescriptions, free university tuition, free bus passes, cheap rail tickets to Glasgow, free school meals and so on. These policies are grossly inefficient for things like child poverty, but of significant benefit to middle class home owners like me. As the fiscal position tightens, the SNP and Labour, to a lesser extent, will find themselves trapped in a choice between these two principles.
Not grossly inefficient. I recall that they crunched the prescription and bus pass figures and found that the cost of means testing took up a lot of the difference between doing it free for all and means testing. And the health and economic benefits more than paid for the remaining margin.
Also, the SNP - it bears repeating as a few on PB seem not to grasp that (not necessarily including eek) - is a minority government, so it's not just the SNP maintaining those budget decisions (though Slab usually refused to vote for the budget on the Bain Principle, even if it was what they wanted).
I have come to the depressing conclusion that Scotland needs a bracing dose of SLab at Holyrood where Scottish voters will be able to see first hand the collision of calls from dimwitted hypocrites like Sarwar continuously demanding more social spending & public sector wage increases with blaming the SG for more social spending & public sector wage increases when Reeves & co cut funding. If they're doing it with the diddy parties in the passenger seats, all the better.
It would be interesting to see if Slab achieve a majority government - after they made almost impossible, back in 1997, when fiddling the electoral system with their LD chums. If not, then who do they do it with? MInority? SGs? SLDs (run by a car enthusiast)? Tories? Reform?
I expect a Lab Lib Green government, in which case, I will be looking forward to the toxic Greens destroying Scottish Labour.
Time for the periodic reminder on here that Slab and SLDs voted for the gender bill ... and for the football racism bill ...
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
45% looks more like his ceiling to me than his floor.
Numerous gaffes would have killed any other campaign by any other candidate stone dead, several times over
And yet nearly half of America still wants this guy
I think that is a symptom of something, but I am not sure what, exactly
Yes. It's complex and therefore can only be distorted if you try and sum it up.
But here's my offering.
It's poorly educated white men reacting to their diminished prospects in a more globalised knowledge based economy by succumbing to their baser instincts.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
They get beaten up and paralyzed and the employer is liable for not providing a safe system of work
Or worse, the shoplifter gets smashed up and takes the firm to court.
You have to rock solid evidence for shoplifting - Malcolm's example above wouldn't cut it as you need to witness them bagging something, never take your eyes off them, and witness them leave the shop. Even then, how do you prove it wasn't a mistake?
you mean an eye witness seeing them stuff their bag and then caught with out paying ay they try to go out the door , I saw the toerag filling his bag. Skanky looking git as well.
I know, I know; but just appreciate that the hands of the staff are tied.
There is nothing more satisfying than someone on minimum wage tackling a shoplifter in the street and getting the goods back. Most people are up for a foot race and a minor scrap, but there is always a risk of a blade.
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
45% looks more like his ceiling to me than his floor.
Numerous gaffes would have killed any other campaign by any other candidate stone dead, several times over
And yet nearly half of America still wants this guy
I think that is a symptom of something, but I am not sure what, exactly
Silos in society.
Cable news and social media make it harder for anyone to hear the full story. Worse than that, providers thrive by being biased.
And the sort of meeting places where people were kind of forced to interact with people unlike them (broad churches and neighbourhood bars, say) have been replaced by people travelling to be with people like them. A lot of Trump's evangelical Christian support is made of evangelicals who don't actually go to church.
And whilst life is simpler and more congenial for all of us when we do that, it has horrible conseqences.
Good comment.
There are a lot of networks of like minded people in US church attendance. It is also about the only part of Western Countries where "Christendom" (ie fairly universal expectation of nominal Christianity and 'Christian values' as a normalised expectation even if not respected except rhetorically on Sundays, and in practices imposed in some arenas of society) still exists widely in some measure.
You can no more predict the outcome of the next election today than you could in Jan 2020 or June 2015.
The curious thing about the current administration, and something that opponents might consider, is that the current tone is deliberate.
“Fixing the foundations” feels like the first part in a three act play, echoing the strategy that took Starmer to number 10, when everyone thought it impossible.
It’s definitely an unconventional start to an administration, but there’s definitely a plan at work. Smells a lot like expectation management to me.
4 yrs of nasty Labour then a giveaway budget morelike
I think the converse - how many seats were won with >45% or >50% would also be really interesting.
As well as the political implications in terms of the greater than usual partisan instability, I think there's also a possible implications for FPTP itself.
One thing that opponents of FPTP often forget is that, most of the time, quite a large proportion of voters vote for the winning MP in their constituency. I wonder how much lower that proportion is this time, and how that might affect people's views of the voting system itself.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
That’s already happening in America. Stores where almost anything of value is locked in vitrines
Take away the rule of law, and we can't have nice things.
Yes, and with the right tacitly supporting the looters and rioters it isn't going to get better.
If there's one thing that Starmer gets it is the Criminal Justice system, so hopefully we can get away from the piss poor policing and justice system of the last decade.
I notice that someone said Beetleguese again, so catch you later.
Deep down I suspect the Right are terrified that Sir Keir will turn out to be Mr Law-n-Order and Mr Conventional, providing a striking contrast to various anarchies of Boris, Truss etc. Hence all the unconvincing attempts to excuse trouble makers. The Right would secretly love to have Sir Keir on their team.
I think it a poor video but it doesn't do what you imply bit does. The implication as I see it is the Conservatives spent unwisely and with money they didn't have.
As I say, a poor film. I would be showing my workings, i e the unfunded NI cuts during an NHS, defence and social services funding crisis.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
What does this say about trust? It says that for about 50 years, from 1960 to 2010, shops felt they could trust 99.9% of customers not to shoplift their goods.
A big part of it is that shoplifting has been effectively decriminalised.
We hear a lot about "poverty", and I'm not saying lots of people aren't struggling, but almost all of them don't shoplift and do use food banks.
It's drug addicts and gangs nicking for cash - unpoliced- that are the big problem.
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
45% looks more like his ceiling to me than his floor.
He won't get to 45%. His campaign is driving up turnout, and not in a way that will benefit him.
I'm confident he loses. I'm not adding to my Big Short but neither am I closing any.
Long way to go yet. And many Americans are mad as hell at Biden-Harris because their communities are a mess.
"Working-class Americans have a right to feel betrayed. After almost 3,000 people died in the Sept. 11 attacks, we started two wars and allocated trillions of dollars to the response. But every three or four days we lose as many Americans to drugs, alcohol and suicide as died in the Sept. 11 attacks, yet the national response has been pathetically weak. The social fabric in many blue-collar communities has unraveled, and people are angry and frustrated."
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
That’s already happening in America. Stores where almost anything of value is locked in vitrines
Take away the rule of law, and we can't have nice things.
Yes, and with the right tacitly supporting the looters and rioters it isn't going to get better.
If there's one thing that Starmer gets it is the Criminal Justice system, so hopefully we can get away from the piss poor policing and justice system of the last decade.
I notice that someone said Beetleguese again, so catch you later.
Deep down I suspect the Right are terrified that Sir Keir will turn out to be Mr Law-n-Order and Mr Conventional, providing a striking contrast to various anarchies of Boris, Truss etc. Hence all the unconvincing attempts to excuse trouble makers. The Right would secretly love to have Sir Keir on their team.
What is really sad is the Left's delusion that Starmer is going to "turn out to be" anything as if he is Clark Kent looking for the right phonebooth. I have had him down as a careerist nebbish since the Huhne affair and been proven right ever since..There is no big reveal just round the corner.
You can no more predict the outcome of the next election today than you could in Jan 2020 or June 2015.
The curious thing about the current administration, and something that opponents might consider, is that the current tone is deliberate.
“Fixing the foundations” feels like the first part in a three act play, echoing the strategy that took Starmer to number 10, when everyone thought it impossible.
It’s definitely an unconventional start to an administration, but there’s definitely a plan at work. Smells a lot like expectation management to me.
But he's not "fixing the foundations" is he? One of his first acts was to spunk nearly £10 billion extra a year on his Union paymasters members no questions asked.
He's like a really nice kid who behaves beautifully to convince his parents to let him have a nice house party with some of his mates round and, as soon as he gets the keys by doing all his chores, and being nicer than his siblings, he goes absolutely balls-out and fucking ballistic.
uts a sign they are planning vert heavy tax increases that will affect even low paid workers and say we have no choice, such as putting up fuel dury by 5p
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
I think we're conflating two questions: Is the Starmer government any good? Will the Conservatives win the next election?
I note most of those most negative about Starmer thought Johnson pretty good back in the day, so forgive me if I don't really buy into the analysis. But they're right in a way. Johnson did win a substantial victory in 2019.
The Conservatives may win in 2029. There's no data backed reason to believe they will at this point, but anything is possible. Right now we don't know. I think English council elections in May will be the first meaningful checkpoint. How well will the Conservatives do, following the dismal results of recent years?
Depends who we pick.
I stand by what I said earlier: focus on candidate selection, party culture, get the basics right on Conservative values and show competence, discipline and humility.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
I thought you'd flounced for ever.
Are you, to quote Take That, "Back for Good"?
Welcome back.
I said I’d come back when travelling. I am in the lovely Kotor Bay, Montenegro. Am moving on tomorrow to mysterious parts….
what is solo travelling like? doesn't it get lonely?
For a few days now. Is @rcs1000 anywhere need a resolution cos it is driving me bonkers.
Here is Vanilla's response:
So... we can enable the new embed system. But that doesn't seem to include ... errrr ... "embed comment functionality". Which is the entire point of Vanilla.
It probably. therefore, means it's time to move to another commenting system.
Elections in Saxony and Thüringen (both former DDR) tomorrow. There's a chance in Saxony that the current ruling coalition CDU + SPD + Greens will retain a slim majority, with a result not too different from 2019 biggest change being the replacement of the Left with the BSW. If they don't it will be a headache.
A bigger headache is likely in Thüringen, where the AfD will almost certainly top the poll, and pro-Putin parties AfD and BSW will likely have a majority between them, though the BSW have ruled out working with the AfD. Again the biggest movement since last time is Left to BSW.
Thüringen is only 2 million people but a lack of government there could still precipitate a crisis, with neo-nazi AfD leader in Thüringen Björn Höcke able to use his position as leader of largest party in parliament. The current arrangement of a minority government led by the Left (current largest party) with opposition support from the CDU is already extremely awkward. On the latest opinion polls the only option would seem to be some kind of coalition or arrangement between CDU, SPD and BSW, which would cause problems in all 3 parties.
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
45% looks more like his ceiling to me than his floor.
Numerous gaffes would have killed any other campaign by any other candidate stone dead, several times over
And yet nearly half of America still wants this guy
I think that is a symptom of something, but I am not sure what, exactly
Yes. It's complex and therefore can only be distorted if you try and sum it up.
But here's my offering.
It's poorly educated white men reacting to their diminished prospects in a more globalised knowledge based economy by succumbing to their baser instincts.
There's an element of that but there has been for generations.
With much of that time such voters have been voting for the centre-left parties and being on the union picket lines - see miners, dockers, print workers in this country.
There is also a modern equivalent of overly educated but under skilled, overly indebted but under employed young people who are discovering in a more globalised AI based economy that their prospects are much diminished to their earlier expectations.
These people vote left of centre - the angrier they are, the further left they vote.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
I think we're conflating two questions: Is the Starmer government any good? Will the Conservatives win the next election?
I note most of those most negative about Starmer thought Johnson pretty good back in the day, so forgive me if I don't really buy into the analysis. But they're right in a way. Johnson did win a substantial victory in 2019.
The Conservatives may win in 2029. There's no data backed reason to believe they will at this point, but anything is possible. Right now we don't know. I think English council elections in May will be the first meaningful checkpoint. How well will the Conservatives do, following the dismal results of recent years?
Depends who we pick.
I stand by what I said earlier: focus on candidate selection, party culture, get the basics right on Conservative values and show competence, discipline and humility.
Question is- which of the six on the shortlist will do those? Cleverly probably, Tugendhat perhaps (my concern is he may have to overcompensate, red meat wise), Stride and Patel (but all the signs are that they're heading for an early bath). I'm serious about Patel, by the way- think Michael Howard in 2003.
Then, more importantly, are the membership up for discipline and humility yet? You're closer to them than I am, but I'm nervous. The party would need to be in a better place emotionally than the Conservatives in '97 or '01, or Labour in '10/'15/'17. And it doesn't look that way yet.
I remember this phase Tories are currently going through. Labour went through it after they lost in 2010. It’s tough.
It's a bit different. Labour had grief to process in 2010, Tories have known this was coming since 2021. Secondly coalition 2010 may have been a coalition with the main part itself fractured over Europe but it was a seamless monolith compared to lab with its division over Corbyn and Palestine and 2 children rule.
Harvest your capital gains Buy popcorn. Buy sub 12 months for 2 tier's first commons defeat.
It's far from easy.
It was worse post 1997, though. Then, there was no hope and noone could lay a finger on Tony.
Only if that cough lasts more than 5 years. They have a solid unshakeable majority.
Absolutely hilarious post.
Under what circumstances do you think they will lose a majority before 2029?
Mass renunciation or withdrawal of whip, over Gaza and/or kid starving policy.
So a 1% chance?
I suspect that Starmers plan is to get the pain over early and to deliver real improvements across government services by the mid term.
The next Labour election will be very much be "We've turned the corner, don't let the Tories ruin things again".
Distilling the reason why the Tories lost, I would say it's people have lost confidence that an ambulance will pick them up for treatment if they collapse in the street.
Conservatives didn't just fail to deal with the problem, it wasn't even a priority for them.
Labour's job before the next election is to get that confidence back.
There's more in that vein, but it's emblematic.
Good job they're building lots of new hospitals then.
For a few days now. Is @rcs1000 anywhere need a resolution cos it is driving me bonkers.
Here is Vanilla's response:
So... we can enable the new embed system. But that doesn't seem to include ... errrr ... "embed comment functionality". Which is the entire point of Vanilla.
It probably. therefore, means it's time to move to another commenting system.
uts a sign they are planning vert heavy tax increases that will affect even low paid workers and say we have no choice, such as putting up fuel dury by 5p
Fuel duty is going up. Even the RAC says it has to because those naughty retailers are not passing on the previous cut.
The circumstances that aligned at produce a Labour landslide on a 33% vote share will not be repeated in 2029...
Maybe a CON MASSIVE MAJORITY on 32% instead? 👍
Possible, I'm sure, but difficult. Those Lib Dems are going to be a bugger to shift- they can shout about opposing the government just as well, and they are probably better than the Conservatives at the necessary street-fighting. (See 2010 for an example; Labour did badly but the Lib Dems did fine.)
As long as those seats are off the table, even a brilliant Conservative performance elsewhere tops out at about 300 seats.
Strategically, the Lib Dems have got the easiest game of all next time- mop up some more Nice seats that currently vote Conservative. (Don't like the government but think X is horrid? Vote for us!) The Conservatives have got to do some mixture of winning Reformers, blue-tinged LibDem voters, and classic suburban swingers. Even when the Starmer government screws up, that won't be an easy mix.
Thank you for the header, which I will read later.
Has anyone had the experience of their local shop reducing lines because of crime?
Went into my small (3500 sqft ish) up-the-road Coop last night and they have cut their number of ranges by ~1/3, which now feels empty. It's a lovely little set up - only been in around 8 years and they even bake bread on the premises, and had a very good range including eg about 15-20 types of ground coffee and beans.
They have removed all the premium products - eg said coffee, meat, high value and hard-to-break products. Much of what was left has been replaced by own brand items.
Talking to the staff, it is theft; for some time they have had multiple occurrences per day of druggy youth walking in, filling their sacks and walking out again, with impunity. The staff are under instructions not to intervene, and we are all familiar with policies making shop-lifting theft under £200 in value a permitted activity.
In Notts our rate of shoplifting for 23/24 is about 60% above the national rate (no idea whether that is even higher locally). For EW we have 3.5% of reported shop-lifting offences for 2%of the population.
There's much going on in the background that is notable - 20 police stations across Notts closed in 2013, all our community policemen removed in ~2015 as part of Mr Cameron cutting police by 15% over several years, our local police station (town of 50k) closed in 2017 where ~40 police were based, and so on.
Does anyone have similar accounts for impact of shoplifting?
I was chatting with some of my former colleagues in retail and it is just astonishing how much goes missing. This is expensive stuff and they have found shopping lists in some of the bags they have managed to intercept, with values into the 10s of thousands. All adds up, but even then it's not material to the overall revenues the shop is bringing in.
Their main issue is dealing with well-meaning customers spotting it and kicking up a fuss. They are under strict instruction not to intervene and so such confrontations cause the managers all sorts of bother.
The one thing we can be thankful for is that the drugs people are on don't tend to lead to violence. Something to watch out for though, with the retail experience in other countries much, much worse.
Why are staff under strict instructions not to intervene?
Legal liability. Someone gets injured and the company can’t prove that they said - “don’t do anything”…
In the US, this had led to staff being sacked for intervening.
In addition there is the threat of legal action from the shoplifters.
I’ve witnessed one “covering” a partner - filming it on her phone and loudly threatening assault charges/sexual assault charges if either are touched.
It’s worth noting that in the Goode Olde Days, “store detectives” and the like had a nasty rep for violence, false imprisonment and racism.
The police were only involved to take custody of the shoplifters, from the store staff, back then.
We could end up with an older model - everything high value behind the counter. What are currently cigarettes, spirits and batteries extended to meat, coffee and some more things.
I think the attitude intervention may swing back. We'll see.
That’s already happening in America. Stores where almost anything of value is locked in vitrines
Take away the rule of law, and we can't have nice things.
Yes, and with the right tacitly supporting the looters and rioters it isn't going to get better.
If there's one thing that Starmer gets it is the Criminal Justice system, so hopefully we can get away from the piss poor policing and justice system of the last decade.
I notice that someone said Beetleguese again, so catch you later.
Deep down I suspect the Right are terrified that Sir Keir will turn out to be Mr Law-n-Order and Mr Conventional, providing a striking contrast to various anarchies of Boris, Truss etc. Hence all the unconvincing attempts to excuse trouble makers. The Right would secretly love to have Sir Keir on their team.
What is really sad is the Left's delusion that Starmer is going to "turn out to be" anything as if he is Clark Kent looking for the right phonebooth. I have had him down as a careerist nebbish since the Huhne affair and been proven right ever since..There is no big reveal just round the corner.
I think anyone who is particularly excited by Starmer, either positively or negatively, is basically imagining things.
Nothing this government has done so far is out of the ordinary, and is almost indistinguishable from what we might have had expected from Sunak had he waited until December - even the restrictions on smoking is in the Sunak mold.
I still think Starmer is more at risk of Millennials giving up on him from a lack of progress on housing, infrastructure and public services than the impotent squealing from the Right. Personally, I can't get HS2 out of my head and it will take a fuck load of cycle lanes to make up for it.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
I think we're conflating two questions: Is the Starmer government any good? Will the Conservatives win the next election?
I note most of those most negative about Starmer thought Johnson pretty good back in the day, so forgive me if I don't really buy into the analysis. But they're right in a way. Johnson did win a substantial victory in 2019.
The Conservatives may win in 2029. There's no data backed reason to believe they will at this point, but anything is possible. Right now we don't know. I think English council elections in May will be the first meaningful checkpoint. How well will the Conservatives do, following the dismal results of recent years?
Depends who we pick.
I stand by what I said earlier: focus on candidate selection, party culture, get the basics right on Conservative values and show competence, discipline and humility.
Because local Tory party officers and members are renowned for prioritising competence, discipline and humility?
Thanks for an interesting article, with some startling data.
There are several separate subjects here. Firstly, betting. Our system currently increases uncertainty and wobbliness. This must be interesting and good for political gamblers.
Secondly, the stability of the system for democracy and politics. This is harder. I like (though misnamed) FPTP. Increasingly people don't. I think the 2024 election was a triumph of its merits.
We need three things: Government without total insanity; ability to chuck the rascals out; opportunity for new entrants. We also don't much like cobbled together coalitions, of which Israel is an example.
2024 delivered this: A total clear out of a party that 75% of voters didn't want. A government that isn't insane and isn't a random cobbling together; and gave the voters the opportunity, if they wish, next time to replace the Tories with the LDs as the leading party alongside Labour, but also gave the Tories the chance to reconstruct as a sane party if they can,as there are loads of seats they can take off both LDs and Labour should they start having an attractive offer.
AV is the only change which makes this work better. But we (wrongly) rejected this so it isn't going to happen.
No system of course prevents insane government if enough people want it. There is no evidence that enough do, happily.
Why would the voters go for little Sir Echo?
The Liberal Democrats would be economically slightly less left-wing but also hugely pompous and Establishment and do nothing about immigration or law and order, whilst genuflecting in all aspects to identity politics and Europe.
No, there is a solid right-wing vote in the country, and potential for growth, they just need to be more measured and competent.
Odd echo between the right in the USA and the right in the UK. Both face very weak opponents they should or could beat, but are hobbling themselves. The right in the UK because it’s horribly divided, the right in the USA because it’s lumbered with Trump
I expect both will be remedied next time, and a better GOP candidate will beat President Harris and a patched-together UK right will chase the pitiful Kir-bot out of power
I see the dividing of the right as a positive thing. The other day, there was a poll where right wing parties outpolled left wing ones. That has not happened for years and wouldn't have happened without the rise of Reform.
I can’t see the right wing parties merging, ever. But I can see an electoral alliance of convenience where they both step aside where the other has a better chance
Tories could get 300 seats, reform 100 (I’m pulling these numbers out of my temporarily Balkan butt) and they win as an informal coalition
I thought you'd flounced for ever.
Are you, to quote Take That, "Back for Good"?
Welcome back.
I said I’d come back when travelling. I am in the lovely Kotor Bay, Montenegro. Am moving on tomorrow to mysterious parts….
The walk up to the Castle Of San Giovanni is worth it.
uts a sign they are planning vert heavy tax increases that will affect even low paid workers and say we have no choice, such as putting up fuel dury by 5p
Fuel duty is going up. Even the RAC says it has to because those naughty retailers are not passing on the previous cut.
The circumstances that aligned at produce a Labour landslide on a 33% vote share will not be repeated in 2029...
Maybe a CON MASSIVE MAJORITY on 32% instead? 👍
Possible, I'm sure, but difficult. Those Lib Dems are going to be a bugger to shift- they can shout about opposing the government just as well, and they are probably better than the Conservatives at the necessary street-fighting. (See 2010 for an example; Labour did badly but the Lib Dems did fine.)
As long as those seats are off the table, even a brilliant Conservative performance elsewhere tops out at about 300 seats.
Strategically, the Lib Dems have got the easiest game of all next time- mop up some more Nice seats that currently vote Conservative. (Don't like the government but think X is horrid? Vote for us!) The Conservatives have got to do some mixture of winning Reformers, blue-tinged LibDem voters, and classic suburban swingers. Even when the Starmer government screws up, that won't be an easy mix.
LDs stick to seats like shit to a stick.
Absolutely. And then the Conservatives have a similar problem to the one Labour had with the SNP through the 2010s. A big block of seats that, by habit and custom, "ought to be theirs" that are out of reach.
And historically, it takes the election after a hung parliament to change that.
uts a sign they are planning vert heavy tax increases that will affect even low paid workers and say we have no choice, such as putting up fuel dury by 5p
Fuel duty is going up. Even the RAC says it has to because those naughty retailers are not passing on the previous cut.
I am not sure that the Conservatives media and faithful Conservative correspondents on here have got the hang of just how despised the Conservative Party are in the country.
Now Labour have a thankless task of building on the "golden legacy" so they are flying kites. These are being shot down by the likes of Nick Ferrari before they become policy. The WFP measures have not been set in stone yet, and unless Reeves is particularly tin-eared she has the opportunity to finesse the policy to satisfy Barty Bobbins without pissing off BigG (too much). Maybe Reeves and Starmer are not as stupid as they look.
Ferrari yesterday was pissing into the wind by focusing on the nanny state argument for allowing smoking in public and disallowing workplace occupational health. I don't understand the argument. Prevention being more cost effective than treatment.
I do believe Reeves and Starmer dropped the ball on WFPs but all other criticisms seem to be froth confected by GB News, Nick Ferrari, Jeremy Kyle and the Telegraph. If there is to be an argument against them it is their lack of initial achievement as opposed to their getting everything wrong so far, not least because they have done SFA.
Conversely I don't think the faithful labour correspondents grasp how quickly history becomes history. It's great establishing that the previous government was crap but it gets to be a bit like arguing that heavier than air flight is possible. That's history, this is current affairs and the topic du jour is the government du jour.
I think we're conflating two questions: Is the Starmer government any good? Will the Conservatives win the next election?
I note most of those most negative about Starmer thought Johnson pretty good back in the day, so forgive me if I don't really buy into the analysis. But they're right in a way. Johnson did win a substantial victory in 2019.
The Conservatives may win in 2029. There's no data backed reason to believe they will at this point, but anything is possible. Right now we don't know. I think English council elections in May will be the first meaningful checkpoint. How well will the Conservatives do, following the dismal results of recent years?
Depends who we pick.
I stand by what I said earlier: focus on candidate selection, party culture, get the basics right on Conservative values and show competence, discipline and humility.
Question is- which of the six on the shortlist will do those? Cleverly probably, Tugendhat perhaps (my concern is he may have to overcompensate, red meat wise), Stride and Patel (but all the signs are that they're heading for an early bath). I'm serious about Patel, by the way- think Michael Howard in 2003.
Then, more importantly, are the membership up for discipline and humility yet? You're closer to them than I am, but I'm nervous. The party would need to be in a better place emotionally than the Conservatives in '97 or '01, or Labour in '10/'15/'17. And it doesn't look that way yet.
The members take their cue from the MPs, in my experience.
You can no more predict the outcome of the next election today than you could in Jan 2020 or June 2015.
The curious thing about the current administration, and something that opponents might consider, is that the current tone is deliberate.
“Fixing the foundations” feels like the first part in a three act play, echoing the strategy that took Starmer to number 10, when everyone thought it impossible.
It’s definitely an unconventional start to an administration, but there’s definitely a plan at work. Smells a lot like expectation management to me.
But he's not "fixing the foundations" is he? One of his first acts was to spunk nearly £10 billion extra a year on his Union paymasters members no questions asked.
He's like a really nice kid who behaves beautifully to convince his parents to let him have a nice house party with some of his mates round and, as soon as he gets the keys by doing all his chores, and being nicer than his siblings, he goes absolutely balls-out and fucking ballistic.
Starmer needed to end the strikes pronto if he is to have the impact he needs within 5 years across the country and in the NHS in particular. Necessary and given the previous underfunding and covid efforts just.
Trump here is saying he doesn’t know who put out the campaign video from the cemetery visit on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN’S TIK-TOK ACCOUNT … AND THEN SUGGESTS MAYBE THE FAMILIES POSTED IT.
45% looks more like his ceiling to me than his floor.
Numerous gaffes would have killed any other campaign by any other candidate stone dead, several times over
And yet nearly half of America still wants this guy
I think that is a symptom of something, but I am not sure what, exactly
Yes. It's complex and therefore can only be distorted if you try and sum it up.
But here's my offering.
It's poorly educated white men reacting to their diminished prospects in a more globalised knowledge based economy by succumbing to their baser instincts.
It’s not about the real Trump. They are supporting a fictional Trump they have constructed in their minds. The Saviour.
Any negatives of the real Trump are transubstantiated into positives. So, when Trump convicted of something - proof of the conspiracy and that he is so brilliant that *They* need to cheat rather than face him.
You can no more predict the outcome of the next election today than you could in Jan 2020 or June 2015.
The curious thing about the current administration, and something that opponents might consider, is that the current tone is deliberate.
“Fixing the foundations” feels like the first part in a three act play, echoing the strategy that took Starmer to number 10, when everyone thought it impossible.
It’s definitely an unconventional start to an administration, but there’s definitely a plan at work. Smells a lot like expectation management to me.
Agree, except that I'm not sure it is that unconventional. Early Thatcher was really good at it. One of the first signs that her government was freeing itself from the bounds of political reality was when Lawson cut taxes in 1988. Coalition Cameron used a variation on the same playbook. That was only a decade ago, for all that it feels much further back in history.
Medical checks: get checked for calcium and mangnesium deficit, and Vitamin D
I cannot realistically do the 20-30K options, but I can do UK for smaller work (2 or 3 teeth) or try abroad for more complex options. So the process is:
Immediate fixes: swap diet coke for sparkling water/soda water/tonic water and reintroducing melon and chicken. This I have already done
Next steps (NHS1). Ask GP for calcium/magnesium checks and referral to a UK maxillofacial surgeon
Next steps (NHS2). Contact NHS dental hospitals directly
Next steps (UK Private). Contact UK periodontists /posh dentists and ask for a quote for two implants/3-on-2 with gum disease stabilisation and bone grafts. This is my preferred option as I think I can get this for under 10K
Next steps (Foreign private). Contact Central European dentists and see what they can do
Thank you all for your kind assistance, it is appreciated. @viewcode
You can no more predict the outcome of the next election today than you could in Jan 2020 or June 2015.
The curious thing about the current administration, and something that opponents might consider, is that the current tone is deliberate.
“Fixing the foundations” feels like the first part in a three act play, echoing the strategy that took Starmer to number 10, when everyone thought it impossible.
It’s definitely an unconventional start to an administration, but there’s definitely a plan at work. Smells a lot like expectation management to me.
But he's not "fixing the foundations" is he? One of his first acts was to spunk nearly £10 billion extra a year on his Union paymasters members no questions asked.
He's like a really nice kid who behaves beautifully to convince his parents to let him have a nice house party with some of his mates round and, as soon as he gets the keys by doing all his chores, and being nicer than his siblings, he goes absolutely balls-out and fucking ballistic.
Starmer needed to end the strikes pronto if he is to have the impact he needs within 5 years across the country and in the NHS in particular. Necessary and given the previous underfunding and covid efforts just.
The right no longer give a fuck about fiscal prudence.
I'm not saying they can't ever win an election with that kinda thinking. But it makes it rather unlikely. Using the freedom of opposition for opportunistic unseriousness might feel good. Might even resonate and shift the polls in an irrelevant period of the electoral cycle, but it won't help the party get back into power.
Medical checks: get checked for calcium and mangnesium deficit, and Vitamin D
I cannot realistically do the 20-30K options, but I can do UK for smaller work (2 or 3 teeth) or try abroad for more complex options. So the process is:
Immediate fixes: swap diet coke for sparkling water/soda water/tonic water and reintroducing melon and chicken. This I have already done
Next steps (NHS1). Ask GP for calcium/magnesium checks and referral to a UK maxillofacial surgeon
Next steps (NHS2). Contact NHS dental hospitals directly
Next steps (UK Private). Contact UK periodontists /posh dentists and ask for a quote for two implants/3-on-2 with gum disease stabilisation and bone grafts. This is my preferred option as I think I can get this for under 10K
Next steps (Foreign private). Contact Central European dentists and see what they can do
Thank you all for your kind assistance, it is appreciated. @viewcode
Good luck. I'm not bothered much by going to the dentist but those options give me pause..
You can no more predict the outcome of the next election today than you could in Jan 2020 or June 2015.
The curious thing about the current administration, and something that opponents might consider, is that the current tone is deliberate.
“Fixing the foundations” feels like the first part in a three act play, echoing the strategy that took Starmer to number 10, when everyone thought it impossible.
It’s definitely an unconventional start to an administration, but there’s definitely a plan at work. Smells a lot like expectation management to me.
But he's not "fixing the foundations" is he? One of his first acts was to spunk nearly £10 billion extra a year on his Union paymasters members no questions asked.
He's like a really nice kid who behaves beautifully to convince his parents to let him have a nice house party with some of his mates round and, as soon as he gets the keys by doing all his chores, and being nicer than his siblings, he goes absolutely balls-out and fucking ballistic.
Starmer needed to end the strikes pronto if he is to have the impact he needs within 5 years across the country and in the NHS in particular. Necessary and given the previous underfunding and covid efforts just.
Nice try.
It’s interesting watching how this plays out, reminds me of 2010.
Thanks for an interesting article, with some startling data.
There are several separate subjects here. Firstly, betting. Our system currently increases uncertainty and wobbliness. This must be interesting and good for political gamblers.
Secondly, the stability of the system for democracy and politics. This is harder. I like (though misnamed) FPTP. Increasingly people don't. I think the 2024 election was a triumph of its merits.
We need three things: Government without total insanity; ability to chuck the rascals out; opportunity for new entrants. We also don't much like cobbled together coalitions, of which Israel is an example.
2024 delivered this: A total clear out of a party that 75% of voters didn't want. A government that isn't insane and isn't a random cobbling together; and gave the voters the opportunity, if they wish, next time to replace the Tories with the LDs as the leading party alongside Labour, but also gave the Tories the chance to reconstruct as a sane party if they can,as there are loads of seats they can take off both LDs and Labour should they start having an attractive offer.
AV is the only change which makes this work better. But we (wrongly) rejected this so it isn't going to happen.
No system of course prevents insane government if enough people want it. There is no evidence that enough do, happily.
Why would the voters go for little Sir Echo?
The Liberal Democrats would be economically slightly less left-wing but also hugely pompous and Establishment and do nothing about immigration or law and order, whilst genuflecting in all aspects to identity politics and Europe.
No, there is a solid right-wing vote in the country, and potential for growth, they just need to be more measured and competent.
Voters are in the position where they can, if they want, make the LDs one of the two main parties WRT seats. Quite different from saying they will do so. This can be done by a GE in which all results are the same as 2024 except that the LDs take the top 25 target seats (Tory).
This won't happen if the Tories sort themselves out, but it is not at all clear that they can.
Yes there is a solid right wing vote in this country. (I have been one of them for nearly 50 years.) That isn't the problem. They don't have a united and coherent party to vote for at the moment.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReqFhDUu-Yo
I note most of those most negative about Starmer thought Johnson pretty good back in the day, so forgive me if I don't really buy into the analysis. But they're right in a way. Johnson did win a substantial victory in 2019.
The Conservatives may win in 2029. There's no data backed reason to believe they will at this point, but anything is possible. Right now we don't know. I think English council elections in May will be the first meaningful checkpoint. How well will the Conservatives do, following the dismal results of recent years?
2. Last year was avove inflation but far from compensated for the past
3. Again will help a bit but still the worst as per 1. by a mile, even Spain and Italy are miles above UK
4. But well below the increase in food , energy , water , council tax etc
Left wing journalists are never happy, even when their side is on top. Right wingers are much more prone to showing loyalty to the leadership, even when it isn't merited.
IMO this really reflects the strategic history of the previous Government on any number of areas. Do nothing do nothing do nothing, until inattention for short-termist reasons allows a Wild West to develop. Then rush around like a horny drunk couple desperately hunting a condom, when the problem will be 10x as difficult to fix as to prevent previously, followed by throwing some money around and random wibble denying any responsibility / blaming somebody else.
Here are the numbers on police spending, which tell the story:
The police numbers tell the same story - starting at 147k FTE then reduce to 124k or so in the middle, and recovering in the last 3 or 4 years. Followed by dishonest-by-omission statements from Rishi Sunak or whoever is the latest one that "look we increased police numbers", when the numbers are up by a fraction whilst the population is up by 6 or 7%.
There is nothing more satisfying than someone on minimum wage tackling a shoplifter in the street and getting the goods back. Most people are up for a foot race and a minor scrap, but there is always a risk of a blade.
When they didn't find any evidence (it didn't exist) they claimed I had passed the goods off to an accomplice, who they also couldn't identify (they didn't exist either)
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/08/italy-pre-qualifying-2024.html
Have to be off, hence not waiting until third practice.
The good vodka, one doesn’t drink with anything more than an ice cube, as with a good whisky.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4946607#Comment_4946607
He is blaming the families of the dead service members!
https://x.com/svdate/status/1829673794803548234
I can't help thinking that in their efforts to cut staffing costs many of the supermarkets, small and large, have encouraged the potential shoplifters to become actual shoplifters.
The curious thing about the current administration, and something that opponents might consider, is that the current tone is deliberate.
“Fixing the foundations” feels like the first part in a three act play, echoing the strategy that took Starmer to number 10, when everyone thought it impossible.
It’s definitely an unconventional start to an administration, but there’s definitely a plan at work. Smells a lot like expectation management to me.
It is clear that the public are not buying into all the doom and gloom plus tax rises, and add in Reeves withdrawal of 'Grandma's' winter fuel allowance virtually on the day it was announced already well paid train drivers would receive inflation busting pay rises, then it is understandable
The conservatives need a new leader which seems a long time away to November but Sunak is well placed to take on Reeves autumn statement on Halloween
Indeed Sunak and Hunts period in office laid the foundations for the improving economy as recently seen
45% looks more like his ceiling to me than his floor.
And yet nearly half of America still wants this guy
I think that is a symptom of something, but I am not sure what, exactly
Here's what's up;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_Kingdom_local_elections
The main upside I can see for the Conservatives is Cambs/Peterborough Mayor. Dr Nick is probably doomed there anyway, unless the government changes the system from FPTP. Otherwise, the likely story is Cons down, Libs up.
Cable news and social media make it harder for anyone to hear the full story. Worse than that, providers thrive by being biased.
And the sort of meeting places where people were kind of forced to interact with people unlike them (broad churches and neighbourhood bars, say) have been replaced by people travelling to be with people like them. A lot of Trump's evangelical Christian support is made of evangelicals who don't actually go to church.
And whilst life is simpler and more congenial for all of us when we do that, it has horrible conseqences.
Signed
A. Ticketmaster Tout
https://x.com/Dominos_UK/status/1829794167041478668?t=0SjyY09Zg0UEqJ_4LZgyGw&s=19
Trump's continued popularity (over the Dems) despite being as mad as the March Hare could be a warning to Labour. Fixing the post -pandemic economy won't be popular.
Edit: assumes SKS doesn't pish so much in their porridge that the lefties go off and restart the Scottish Socialists. Not sure myself that this will happen - but remember it was the Poll Tax that got Tommy Sheridan & Co up and running.
But here's my offering.
It's poorly educated white men reacting to their diminished prospects in a more globalised knowledge based economy by succumbing to their baser instincts.
There are a lot of networks of like minded people in US church attendance. It is also about the only part of Western Countries where "Christendom" (ie fairly universal expectation of nominal Christianity and 'Christian values' as a normalised expectation even if not respected except rhetorically on Sundays, and in practices imposed in some arenas of society) still exists widely in some measure.
https://x.com/uklabour/status/1829510848760746187
I think the converse - how many seats were won with >45% or >50% would also be really interesting.
As well as the political implications in terms of the greater than usual partisan instability, I think there's also a possible implications for FPTP itself.
One thing that opponents of FPTP often forget is that, most of the time, quite a large proportion of voters vote for the winning MP in their constituency. I wonder how much lower that proportion is this time, and how that might affect people's views of the voting system itself.
As I say, a poor film. I would be showing my workings, i e the unfunded NI cuts during an NHS, defence and social services funding crisis.
We hear a lot about "poverty", and I'm not saying lots of people aren't struggling, but almost all of them don't shoplift and do use food banks.
It's drug addicts and gangs nicking for cash - unpoliced- that are the big problem.
"Working-class Americans have a right to feel betrayed. After almost 3,000 people died in the Sept. 11 attacks, we started two wars and allocated trillions of dollars to the response. But every three or four days we lose as many Americans to drugs, alcohol and suicide as died in the Sept. 11 attacks, yet the national response has been pathetically weak. The social fabric in many blue-collar communities has unraveled, and people are angry and frustrated."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/31/opinion/trump-voters-liberal-civil.html
He's like a really nice kid who behaves beautifully to convince his parents to let him have a nice house party with some of his mates round and, as soon as he gets the keys by doing all his chores, and being nicer than his siblings, he goes absolutely balls-out and fucking ballistic.
I stand by what I said earlier: focus on candidate selection, party culture, get the basics right on Conservative values and show competence, discipline and humility.
That's a lot, and not far off an absolute majority of the vote.
Serious question: what are the carbon emissions from something like that and is anyone worrying about it?
https://x.com/skynews/status/1829810802356076768
There's a chance in Saxony that the current ruling coalition CDU + SPD + Greens will retain a slim majority, with a result not too different from 2019 biggest change being the replacement of the Left with the BSW. If they don't it will be a headache.
A bigger headache is likely in Thüringen, where the AfD will almost certainly top the poll, and pro-Putin parties AfD and BSW will likely have a majority between them, though the BSW have ruled out working with the AfD. Again the biggest movement since last time is Left to BSW.
Thüringen is only 2 million people but a lack of government there could still precipitate a crisis, with neo-nazi AfD leader in Thüringen Björn Höcke able to use his position as leader of largest party in parliament. The current arrangement of a minority government led by the Left (current largest party) with opposition support from the CDU is already extremely awkward. On the latest opinion polls the only option would seem to be some kind of coalition or arrangement between CDU, SPD and BSW, which would cause problems in all 3 parties.
With much of that time such voters have been voting for the centre-left parties and being on the union picket lines - see miners, dockers, print workers in this country.
There is also a modern equivalent of overly educated but under skilled, overly indebted but under employed young people who are discovering in a more globalised AI based economy that their prospects are much diminished to their earlier expectations.
These people vote left of centre - the angrier they are, the further left they vote.
Then, more importantly, are the membership up for discipline and humility yet? You're closer to them than I am, but I'm nervous. The party would need to be in a better place emotionally than the Conservatives in '97 or '01, or Labour in '10/'15/'17. And it doesn't look that way yet.
It was worse post 1997, though. Then, there was no hope and noone could lay a finger on Tony.
Not a touch. We all came close to giving up.
Oh, wait a minute..
But the electorate really wanted the current iteration of the Tories out.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2nrneym82o
Nothing this government has done so far is out of the ordinary, and is almost indistinguishable from what we might have had expected from Sunak had he waited until December - even the restrictions on smoking is in the Sunak mold.
I still think Starmer is more at risk of Millennials giving up on him from a lack of progress on housing, infrastructure and public services than the impotent squealing from the Right. Personally, I can't get HS2 out of my head and it will take a fuck load of cycle lanes to make up for it.
The Liberal Democrats would be economically slightly less left-wing but also hugely pompous and Establishment and do nothing about immigration or law and order, whilst genuflecting in all aspects to identity politics and Europe.
No, there is a solid right-wing vote in the country, and potential for growth, they just need to be more measured and competent.
Yet fuel prices seem to be the same now as they were in 2012:
https://www.racfoundation.org/data/uk-pump-prices-over-time
So all this supposed price gouging has been in a period when prices have fallen massively in real terms.
And historically, it takes the election after a hung parliament to change that.
Or Peron.
It’s not about the real Trump. They are supporting a fictional Trump they have constructed in their minds. The Saviour.
Any negatives of the real Trump are transubstantiated into positives. So, when Trump convicted of something - proof of the conspiracy and that he is so brilliant that *They* need to cheat rather than face him.
Thank you all for your useful advice, which I summarise below
- Surgery 1: Campbell Clinic in Nottingham. Full implant retained dentures, not too much bone loss. Cost 28K
- Surgery 2: Helvetic clinic in Budapest. Extensive treatment including grafting and implants. Cost not specified
- Surgery 3: Get a referral to a UK specialist dental hospital. They may not be able to help but can point
- Surgery 4: See Maxilo-Facial surgeon (these are both medically and dentally trained) or a Restorative dentist.
- Surgery 5: Dental specialist dentist in Birmingham. Cost £35K
- Diet improvement: remove diet coke. Add 'Green cola, xylitol, yoghurt, bone broth
- Dental health. Add sonic toothbrush
- Medical checks: get checked for calcium and mangnesium deficit, and Vitamin D
I cannot realistically do the 20-30K options, but I can do UK for smaller work (2 or 3 teeth) or try abroad for more complex options. So the process is:- Immediate fixes: swap diet coke for sparkling water/soda water/tonic water and reintroducing melon and chicken. This I have already done
- Next steps (NHS1). Ask GP for calcium/magnesium checks and referral to a UK maxillofacial surgeon
- Next steps (NHS2). Contact NHS dental hospitals directly
- Next steps (UK Private). Contact UK periodontists /posh dentists and ask for a quote for two implants/3-on-2 with gum disease stabilisation and bone grafts. This is my preferred option as I think I can get this for under 10K
- Next steps (Foreign private). Contact Central European dentists and see what they can do
Thank you all for your kind assistance, it is appreciated. @viewcodeThe right no longer give a fuck about fiscal prudence.
I'm not saying they can't ever win an election with that kinda thinking. But it makes it rather unlikely. Using the freedom of opposition for opportunistic unseriousness might feel good. Might even resonate and shift the polls in an irrelevant period of the electoral cycle, but it won't help the party get back into power.
Does @Anabobazina get any sex?
This won't happen if the Tories sort themselves out, but it is not at all clear that they can.
Yes there is a solid right wing vote in this country. (I have been one of them for nearly 50 years.) That isn't the problem. They don't have a united and coherent party to vote for at the moment.